HYSPLIT Smoke Verification for day: 13

HYSPLIT Model Smoke Forecast Enlarge Animation JavaScript Animation with controls Smoke forecasts are produced by NOAA using the HYSPLIT dispersion model. The dispersion model is preconfigured to run over the entire country once-a-day using the daily 0600 UTC NAM meteorological forecast. One-hour average output maps of primary PM2.5 air concentration between the ground and 5 km are produced using the actual fire locations from the previous day. The dispersion simulation consists of two parts: 1) a 24 h analysis simulation run for the previous day, and 2) a 48 h forecast simulation. The smoke particle positions at the end of each analysis period are used to intitialze the next day's analysis simulation. Model Forecast Hour Today's HYSPLIT 24h Analysis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Day-1 HYSPLIT +24h Forecast 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Day-2 HYSPLIT +48h Forecast 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 24hr Analysis Measure of Effectiveness (MOE) 1 ug/m3 5 ug/m3 20 ug/m3 100 ug/m3 MOE, Warner et al., 2001

Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product HMS Product Click on the composite image above to enlarge. Fires are in red. Fire size has been increased so fires are visible in this view. Smoke, when detected by the analyst, is in gray. For more details, see the NOAA NESDIS HMS webpage. NOAA NESDIS Text Narrative This narrative, updated twice daily, indicates significant areas of smoke/dust visible on satellite imagery. Early Discussion Late Discussion Alternate link: NESDIS Narrative. NOAA NESDIS Keyhole Markup Language (KML) file. HMS Smoke Link to ARL FTP Directory Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) HYSPLIT 24h Analysis Contour Area Weighted Mean FMS % Daily FMS % No. of matched shapes 1 ug/m3 24.53 6.41 461 5 ug/m3 11.11 8.03 394 20 ug/m3 2.82 2.87 290 100 ug/m3 0.11 0.11 123 Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) Histograms 1 ug/m3 5 ug/m3 20 ug/m3 100 ug/m3 HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today Contour Area Weighted Mean FMS % Daily FMS % No. of matched shapes 1 ug/m3 24.26 6.67 422 5 ug/m3 10.46 7.92 344 20 ug/m3 2.49 2.52 254 100 ug/m3 0.08 0.08 83 Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) Histograms 1 ug/m3 5 ug/m3 20 ug/m3 100 ug/m3 Click here for more details on todays shapefile comparisons where, AHYS and AHMS are the HYSPLIT shape area and observed shape area, respectively and n is the number of shapes compared.

Smoke Keyhole Markup Language (KMZ) File

• HYSPLIT smoke 24 hour analysis

• HYSPLIT smoke 24 hour forecast valid today