HYSPLIT Model Smoke Forecast
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Smoke forecasts are produced by NOAA using the HYSPLIT
dispersion model. The dispersion model is preconfigured to run over the
entire country once-a-day using the daily 0600 UTC NAM meteorological forecast. One-hour
average output maps of primary PM2.5 air concentration between the ground and 5 km are
produced using the actual fire locations from the previous day. The dispersion
simulation consists of two parts: 1) a 24 h analysis simulation run for the
previous day, and 2) a 48 h forecast simulation.
The smoke particle positions
at the end of each analysis period are used to intitialze the next day's
analysis simulation.
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Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product
 HMS Product
Click on the composite image above to enlarge. Fires are in red. Fire size has
been increased so fires are visible in this view. Smoke, when detected by the analyst,
is in gray. For more details, see the
NOAA NESDIS HMS webpage.
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NOAA NESDIS Text Narrative This narrative, updated twice daily, indicates significant areas of smoke/dust visible on satellite imagery.
Early Discussion
Late Discussion
Alternate link: NESDIS Narrative.
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NOAA NESDIS Keyhole Markup Language (KML) file.
HMS Smoke
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Link to ARL FTP Directory
Figure of Merit in Space (FMS)
HYSPLIT 24h Analysis
Contour | Area Weighted Mean FMS % | Daily FMS % | No. of matched shapes |
1 ug/m3 | 11.93 | 0.31 | 10 |
5 ug/m3 | 17.56 | 12.07 | 8 |
20 ug/m3 | 13.32 | 13.37 | 5 |
100 ug/m3 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 3 |
Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) Histograms
 1 ug/m3
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 5 ug/m3
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 20 ug/m3
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 100 ug/m3
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HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today
Contour | Area Weighted Mean FMS % | Daily FMS % | No. of matched shapes |
1 ug/m3 | 10.60 | 0.33 | 10 |
5 ug/m3 | 19.84 | 18.71 | 5 |
20 ug/m3 | 26.15 | 26.43 | 4 |
100 ug/m3 | 5.54 | 5.54 | 4 |
Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) Histograms
 1 ug/m3
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 5 ug/m3
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 20 ug/m3
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 100 ug/m3
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Click here for more details on todays shapefile comparisons
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where, AHYS and AHMS are the HYSPLIT shape area and observed shape area, respectively and n is the number of shapes compared. |
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