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vt fire


FNUS71 KBTV 171221
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Flat Rock Fire...DEC Forest Rangers
National Weather Service Burlington VT
821 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 EDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
today with some localized heavy rainfall possible. A widespread
wetting rain is anticipated with temperatures mainly in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Winds will shift to the northwest tonight and much
cooler and drier air returns for Wednesday. Minimum afternoon
relative humidity values will drop in the 28 to 35% range for both
Wednesday and Thursday, but with high pressure directly overhead,
winds will be generally under 10 mph. The next chance for rain
arrives on Sunday, as temperatures return back to above normal by
the end of the week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms through early afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900-6700 ft AGL increasing to 7500 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........62     46
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20
Temp............83     84
RH..............55     48
20 ft wind......W 8    W 10
20 ft wind gust.11     14
Mix hgt (ft)....4900   6700
Transport wind..W 14   W 17
Haines index....4      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL decreasing to 200-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........31     15     20     24     28     36
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     0      0      0      0
Temp............81     75     69     65     62     58
RH..............51     60     70     75     75     83
20 ft wind......NW 10  W 9    NW 9   NW 9   NW 9   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.13     12     12     12     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....5100   300    200    200    200    300
Transport wind..W 15   NW 9   NW 9   NW 9   NW 10  NW 10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4600 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........37     30     23     17     10     6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     0
Temp............57     61     65     69     72     75
RH..............80     67     56     49     42     37
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 9   NW 8   NW 8   NW 9   NW 9
20 ft wind gust.10     12     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1600   2800   3700   4500   4600
Transport wind..NW 10  NW 12  NW 12  NW 12  NW 13  NW 13
Haines index....3      2      3      3      4      4

$$
Forecaster...Neiles
Requested by...Robert Rogers
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1812844.3/BTV
.DELDT 07/17/18
.EMAIL robert.rogers@dec.ny.gov