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FNUS74 KLUB 172318
FWSLUB

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Chicken Complex...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 CDT on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

If you have questions or concerns with this forecast,
please contact our office at (806) 745-4926.

.DISCUSSION...
The area surrounding the Chicken Complex (NE of Turkey) is situated within
a void of thunderstorm activity as of 605PM though light rain does exist
within a 30 mile radius in most directions.  This has created an area of
mostly southerly winds with gusts to near 20 mph which should remain fairly
through 7pm.  A complex of thunderstorms exists across the Texas
Panhandle has generated an outflow boundary which is located about 10 miles
north of Clarendon moving south near 20 mph.  How this wind boundary will
evolve as it nears central Hall county is uncertain though we expect that
it should continue to move south possibly shifting winds between 830 amd
900PM local if it holds together.  Some potential exists for the boundary
to accelerate as storms across the panhandle collapses. As such, close
monitoring of surface winds is advised.  A useful resource will be to monitor
area West Texas mesonet sites or contact the Lubbock forecast office
periodically.

Into the overnight period, another round of thunderstorms is possible though
will likely be mitigated to some extent by this evening's activity.  Abrupt
and gusty winds will likely be the primary threat.  The same general pattern
of afternoon through overnight thunderstorm activity is expected through
the weekend.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................50 percent decreasing to 40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1900, then 16-25 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........72     76     80     84     82     81
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............40     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............4      4      4      4      4      4
Temp............91     85     81     77     76     75
RH..............39     53     63     68     73     76
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 6   E 5    NE 5   N 6    N 7
20 ft wind gust.12     7      7      6
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 30 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 0700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........80     78     77     76     76     78
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............40     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............4      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............74     73     78     83     89     91
RH..............79     81     72     61     49     44
20 ft wind......NE 6   NE 5   E 6    E 7    SE 7   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.7      6      7             10     10
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1900, then 16-25 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph until early morning
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........80     80     78     76     74     71
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............30     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............3      4      4      4      4      4
Temp............90     81     77     74     73     72
RH..............46     59     67     75     72     75
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 8   SE 6   E 7    E 5    E 3
20 ft wind gust.10     10     7      10     6      4
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...JURECKA
Requested by...Mira Peters
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1814621.2/LUB
.DELDT 08/17/18
.EMAIL merkeldispatch@tfs.tamu.edu