Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

mi fire


FNUS73 KAPX 201146
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Block House Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
646 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will cross nrn Michigan today, before
low pressure arrives tonight north of the region. Northwest winds
will weaken through the first half of today, while also backing
more out of the WSW by late this afternoon, then increasing as the
pressure gradient tightens in advance of the low pressure. The
gradient remains tight through the night and into Wednesday morning,
and gusty winds veer back to out of the NW behind the passage of a
cold front.

Out ahead of the low pressure, light snows will break out late this
afternoon northwest of the burn site, and arrive as scattered light
snow showers tonight. Little to no accumulation. Winds weaken
later Wednesday as high pressure settles in.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy.
                    (50-60 percent) then becoming cloudy
                    later this afternoon (85-95 percent).
Temperature.........16 at ignition...Max 26.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph
                    early in the morning becoming light, then
                    becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3300-4200
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph.
Vent rate...........Excellent /600 at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /900/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  44  38  43  48  53  65  76  88  92
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............16  16  17  18  20  22  24  25  25  25
RH..............80  80  77  73  67  65  60  60  62  62
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   4   4   4   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.8   10  10  8   7   7   7   10  11  12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.20  18  17  16  16  16  18  21  23  25
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
VRate/100.......6   7   7   6   6   6   7   9   9   9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered snow showers.
Temperature.........Min 18.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-2800 ft AGL decreasing to 800-2500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and early morning, then
                    increasing to 3200-3600 ft AGL early in the
                    morning.
Transport winds.....Northwest 26 to 33 mph.
Vent rate...........Fair to excellent (200-1200).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........96  100 99  99  98  93  89  85  85  86  86  78
Weather cov.....    SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....    SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............24  22  22  23  24  25  25  25  25  25  24  23
RH..............68  74  81  81  84  81  84  84  81  78  77  77
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  16  17  18  18  19  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.26  28  29  30  31  32  32  32  32  32  32  33
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......7   6   5   3   3   2   3   4   6   8   10  12

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 22.
RH..................Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......4000-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 26 to 35 mph decreasing to 22 to 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent rate...........Excellent (1100).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........70     56     49     59     60     52
Weather cov.....SCTTRD
Weather type....SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............22     18     19     20     20     18
RH..............77     80     67     62     56     56
20 ft wind......NW 10  NW 10  N 9    NW 9   NW 9   NW 8
20 ft wind gust.17     14     14     14     14     12
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   4400   4400   5000   5100   4600
Transport wind..NW 35  NW 33  NW 30  NW 24  NW 22  NW 25
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate/100.......14     15     13     12     11     12

$$
Forecaster...Scott Dickson
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1818170.1/APX
.DELDT 11/20/18