Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

mi fire


FNUS73 KAPX 201214
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Perry Holt 2018...MDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
814 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure is located over the Iowa/Missouri
border this morning pushing thicker cloud cover up into Northern
Lower Michigan. This system will track up through southern and
central lower Michigan tonight and finally bring some fairly
widespread rainfall up through the region, including the burn
site, where rainfall amounts of around an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

But otherwise for today, rain-free weather will persist through
today and into this evening with just that increasing cloud cover.
Light winds this morning will becoming southeast up to sustained
10 mph for the afternoon, before diminishing again this evening.
Temperatures will be warm once again, but humidity readings remain
on the higher side.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........67 at forecast start...Max 79.
RH..................90 percent at forecast start...Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 3 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southeast 6 to 10 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise
                    800-2700 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor /0 at forecast start. Max...excellent
                    /700/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at forecast start...max
                    4.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise
                    800-2700 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  62  56  57  66  70  75  84  85
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............67  70  74  76  78  79  79  79  78
RH..............90  81  71  64  60  56  52  50  52
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   6   6   7   9   9   7
20 FT wind gust.6                       10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   8   10  12  13  13  13  14  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRate/100.......0   1   3   4   6   7   7   6   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
                    Patchy fog after midnight.
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph until early morning
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......1500-2800 ft AGL decreasing to 200-500 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  84  84  80  79  79  82  86  90  91  92  94
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............76  74  72  70  68  66  65  65  64  64  64  64
RH..............60  64  71  76  84  90  93  93  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers until late
                    afternoon. Chance of showers early in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 9 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to good (0-400).
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........95     97     99     99     99     90
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC         S CHC  S CHC
Temp............64     64     66     69     71     72
RH..............100    100    97     87     81     76
20 ft wind......NE 4   NE 5   N 6    N 6    N 6    N 8
20 ft wind gust.                                   11
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    600    900    1300   2100
Transport wind..N 8    N 8    N 13   N 15   N 15   N 17
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      3
VRate/100.......0      0      1      1      2      4

$$
Forecaster...Brian Adam
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1814769.0/APX
.DELDT 08/20/18