FNUS72 KFFC 250911
FWSFFC
Spot Forecast for Turkey Beard RX...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning!
The biggest forecast challenge today will be winds -- wind speeds
are expected to remain light through the day with values averaging
less than 5 MPH and direction will be variable.
Skies are clear this morning but increasing cloud cover 40-60%
coverage can be expected by late afternoon into the evening.
Forecast minimum relative humidity values will range from 25% to
30% but certainly possible values dip below 25% for a few hours
this afternoon. We will continue to monitor trends through the
morning considering how 10hr fuels faired yesterday. As previous
stated, winds will largely be light (2-5 MPH) and variable
through the day and into tonight. Transport wind speeds will range
from 4-6 MPH thus resulting in less than ideal smoke dispersion.
Tonight the weak frontal boundary that moved through the area
yesterday, will lift back north and may produce some additional
light rain or sprinkles at/near the burn site early Friday
morning. Accumulations expected to be less than a hundredth of an
inch.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 6 mph shifting to the west
around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (22100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
ADI.................2 to 32.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12 17 30 39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74 75 75 75
RH..............27 27 26 26
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1
Transp wind dir.NW W W W
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5
ADI.............31 32 32 31
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22 22 22 21
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the north
around 3 mph early in the evening, then
shifting to the east 3 to 5 mph in the late
evening and overnight shifting to the southeast
around 5 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
ADI.................2 to 16.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 15.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........43 64 64 63 64 60 58 56 58 77 70 73
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............74 72 67 65 64 62 61 61 60 59 58 59
RH..............27 27 40 44 45 45 47 48 50 53 54 55
20 FT wind dir..W NW N E E E SE SE SE N N SE
20 FT wind spd..3 3 0 2 2 3 2 2 3 0 0 3
20 FT wind gust.7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.W NW N N E E E SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5
ADI.............16 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 15
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 12 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to south 21 to
28 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (58100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 55 in the
afternoon.
CEILING (KFT).......12 decreasing to 3.0.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80 73 82 81 80 78 71 70 68 65 60 57
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............57 58 59 61 65 67 68 70 72 73 74 75
RH..............59 59 63 61 55 53 51 49 47 46 45 45
20 FT wind dir..SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 6 7 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 10 13 18 20 20 22 22 22 21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.9
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S
Transp wind spd.5 5 7 14 21 26 28 26 25 24 24 23
ADI.............3 5 6 11 23 37 43 49 46 49 54 55
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 2 8 19 25 29 36 39 44 53 58
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR
Ceiling (kft)...12 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5
$$
Forecaster...Wyatt
Requested by...Jake Hauser
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412020.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jake.hauser@usda.gov
FNUS72 KFFC 250929
FWSFFC
Spot Forecast for Little Pineknot Creek West...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning!
Mostly dry and warm conditions can be expected today at the burn
site. A weak frontal boundary to the north of the burn site will
continue southward today making for a tricky wind forecast.
Light/calm winds this morning look be primarily out of the NE at
less than 6 MPH. By the afternoon (after 1PM) winds may briefly
switch back to the NW less than 5 MPH before becoming more
variable in nature through the evening given lighter wind speeds.
20ft winds look to behave similarly to surface winds but may be
delayed by an hour or two when briefly switching back to the NW
during the afternoon. Transport wind speeds will range from 4 to 7
MPH through mid-day before decreasing to less than 6 MPH this
afternoon.
Forecast relative humidity around the time of ignition will range
from 80% to 90%, then lowering between 40% to 55% between
11AM-12PM, and between 30% to 35% this afternoon (after 2PM). We
will continue to monitor trends this morning given how 10hr fuels
faired yesterday. No Fire Danger Statement has been issued at this
time. The weak frontal boundary is slated to lift back northward
this evening, thus some sprinkles may be possible near/at the burn
site this evening.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............56 decreasing to 51 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph late
in the morning, then shifting to the north
around 6 mph late in the afternoon shifting to
the northwest late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 2 to 7 mph shifting to the west around 6
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (36100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 50 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10 0 1 1 1 2 11 11 13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............63 70 75 78 81 82 83 84 83
Dewpoint........58 58 57 54 53 49 50 50 49
RH..............84 66 53 43 38 32 31 31 30
20 FT wind dir..NE NE E NE NE N NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.6 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.9 3.8 4.6 6.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE N N NW W W
Transp wind spd.5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............6 21 30 37 46 48 48 48 50
Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 16 21 24 32 35 36 36 36
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Dewpoint............49 increasing to 53 early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
after 3 am becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the north
around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the east 5 to 6 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (700 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 25.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........12 13 8 7 15 31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............83 77 70 66 64 62
Dewpoint........49 54 54 53 53 53
RH..............30 45 57 62 66 71
20 ft wind......W 6 NW 3 E 3 E 3 E 3 E 5
20 ft wind gust.9 7 6 7 7 7
Mix hgt (ft)....3800 200 200 200 200 200
Transport wind..W 6 NW 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 E 6
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3
ADI.............25 2 2 2 2 2
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Dewpoint............53 increasing to 58 in the late morning and
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 10 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 16
mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (82300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 103 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 early in the morning, then
increasing to 25 late in the morning decreasing
to 20 early in the afternoon decreasing to 15
decreasing to 10 early in the afternoon
decreasing to 8.0 increasing to 9.0 late in the
afternoon increasing to 10.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........42 45 18 21 38 40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............61 62 73 81 84 85
Dewpoint........52 54 59 59 58 58
RH..............73 76 62 49 42 39
20 ft wind......E 3 E 3 SE 6 SE 8 SE 9 SE 10
20 ft wind gust.6 7 12 14 17 18
Mix hgt (ft)....200 200 2800 4400 6500 5700
Transport wind..E 5 E 5 SE 13 SE 16 S 15 S 15
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1
ADI.............3 5 44 84 103 86
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 39 59 82 72
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD
Ceiling (kft)...25 20 25 20 10 9.0
$$
Forecaster...Wyatt
Requested by...Mike Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412321.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.thompson@tnc.org
