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FXUS61 KRLX 250620
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
120 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front pushes north through the area tonight. Cold front
sweeps across Sunday. High pressure brings dry air by Sunday
and start to work week. Next low pressure system mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 350 PM Saturday...

Sent an update to remove most PoPs across the lowlands in a lull
suggested by the HRRR and latest radar images. Another but more
widespread area of rainfall is evident moving northeast across
central KY into southern OH. This activity is expected to reach
southeast OH by 00Z Sunday. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 120 PM Saturday...

Warm advection rainfall did finally pick up in intensity, causing
some small stream and poor drainage flooding. This rain will move
out of the area by this evening, but more rounds are expected later
tonight.

As of 1045 AM Saturday...

Rain overnight did not amount to much, and neither is warm
advection rain today so far. Mainstem Ohio river forecasts
reflect lower crests, as a result. The weather forecast is
otherwise largely on track.

As of 300 AM Saturday...

A frontal boundary will remain across the area today as a wave
brings an area of showers. Much of the area should then go into
a lull later this afternoon and early this evening as the front
pushes north of the area. Showers will return later tonight as a
cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the
highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern
West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to
previous runs. Will continue the flood watch as the ground is
saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Wave developing along the front on the south and east side of
the mountains could push some light rain back into the southwest
Virginia and far southern West Virginia counties Sunday
night/early Monday morning, but will quickly be forced back out
of the southern zones of the CWA. Otherwise, the period is
dominated by high pressure and a much welcomed drying out
period. Dominant upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida keeps the area milder than normal for this time of year
with above 0C 850mb temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

More rain arrives for the middle to end of the week from a fast
moving panhandle low pressure system. Will need to watch the
rainfall amounts combined with the ability for the
rivers/creeks/streams/surface to recover from a very wet second
half of February, and if the system will set up over the Ohio
Valley yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Rain showers will spread slowly from west to east through the
overnight hours. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected
especially in areas of moderate to heavy rain.

Ahead of the approaching rain showers, advection of warm moist
air northward could also produce periods of dense fog under
LIFR ceilings .

A cold front will quickly cross the area into the afternoon
hours. Gusty showers will be common along the front with a wind
shift to the west to southwest. Models continue to indicate the
possibility of LLWS conditions. Because of uncertainty, haver
opted to not include the mention of LLWS for now. However, will
have to monitor conditions invof the cold front.

Conditions should improve in the wake of the front. Expect VFR
conditions will spread east to the Ohio River around 15Z, across
much of the lowlands by 18Z and then the entire area by 20Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will
vary, as will gusty winds. LLWS could also develop.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 02/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in dense fog Monday and Tuesday mornings, and in
rain Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this afternoon for WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH

FXUS61 KRLX 250644
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
144 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front sweeps east this morning. High pressure brings dry
weather by this afternoon with dry conditions anticipated into
the early next week. Next low pressure system mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Latest radar mosaic shows a large area of moderate to occasionally
heavy showers was currently pushing east into the region. These
showers were associated with a cold front which was approaching
from the west.

The cold front and associated precipitation should push across
the region this morning with the precipitation coming to an end
as the front pushes east.

Models continue to generally show the highest rainfall amounts
over southeastern Ohio. Will continue the flood watch as the
ground is saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high
across the watch area.

High pressure will build in tonight with dry weather and light
northwest winds.

Blend of model guidance is very close for previous forecast for
highs today and lows tonight.  So only some minor tweaks made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Wave developing along the front on the south and east side of
the mountains could push some light rain back into the southwest
Virginia and far southern West Virginia counties Sunday
night/early Monday morning, but will quickly be forced back out
of the southern zones of the CWA. Otherwise, the period is
dominated by high pressure and a much welcomed drying out
period. Dominant upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida keeps the area milder than normal for this time of year
with above 0C 850mb temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

More rain arrives for the middle to end of the week from a fast
moving panhandle low pressure system. Will need to watch the
rainfall amounts combined with the ability for the
rivers/creeks/streams/surface to recover from a very wet second
half of February, and if the system will set up over the Ohio
Valley yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Rain showers will spread slowly from west to east through the
overnight hours. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected
especially in areas of moderate to heavy rain.

Ahead of the approaching rain showers, advection of warm moist
air northward could also produce periods of dense fog under
LIFR ceilings .

A cold front will quickly cross the area into the afternoon
hours. Gusty showers will be common along the front with a wind
shift to the west to southwest. Models continue to indicate the
possibility of LLWS conditions. Because of uncertainty, haver
opted to not include the mention of LLWS for now. However, will
have to monitor conditions invof the cold front.

Conditions should improve in the wake of the front. Expect VFR
conditions will spread east to the Ohio River around 15Z, across
much of the lowlands by 18Z and then the entire area by 20Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will
vary, as will gusty winds. LLWS could also develop.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 02/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in dense fog Tuesday morning, and in rain
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this afternoon for WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH