FXUS61 KRLX 231839
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018
Low pressure passes to our north. Several upper level waves
continue unsettled weather into Sunday. Drier to start the work
week. Front mid week, then turning hot into the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...
A surface low is moving its way across Lake Erie, with a
secondary low beginning to take shape in the lee of the
Appalachians. While dew points are lower than they were the last
few days, there is still enough moisture for pop up showers and
storms today...aided by an upper level trough and associated
vorticity. Have the highest POPs across the north, topping out
this afternoon and then diminishing as the best of the upper
level energy departs. We do have a couple more shortwave
troughs that will move through tonight and Sunday. Kept only
isolated showers overnight, generally south and east of the
Ohio River and then ramp up to scattered showers and storms
across most of the forecast area on Sunday. Have the highest
POPs on Sunday across the mountains and southern coal fields.
Instability has pretty much maxed out for today, but with some
peaks of sunshine between showers did keep some thunder mention
going. We do get a bit better instability Sunday along and south
of I-64 so would expect to see more coverage of lightning and
possibly some taller cells. Precipitable water values are around
1.5" today, so higher reflectivity cells will have some
downpours. However, with decent storm motion heavy rain should
be fairly brief at any one location. Precipitable water does
nose closer to 2" across the south Sunday, but since this area
has not had as much heavy rain over the last several days
widespread flash flooding is not expected.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...
This will be an overall, but not completely, drier period in the
forecast with upper level ridging and moisture starved layers in
the column. Building heights will signal a slow increase in
temperatures in the short term back into the middle and upper
80s for the lowlands. Upper trough with the next frontal system
approaches for late Tuesday and into the long term period.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...
Upper low/frontal system slated for mid week brings thunderstorm
chances into play along with the next organized batch of rain
for the region. Stout ridging aloft will be taking place over
the mid Mississippi valley, and slowly moving into the Ohio
Valley towards next weekend. This will put the area in prime
position for hot weather and widespread 90s once again for the
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today. These will bring periods of MVFR to IFR, however did not
include any IFR since its hard to time out and should be brief
at any one spot.
Expect a MVFR deck of clouds to develop late tonight, with some
fog possible in valley locations as well. Another day with
isolated to scattered showers and storms expected tomorrow.
Winds will generally be out of the west through the period, with
some gustiness today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers/storms.
Timing of stratus/fog restrictions overnight may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in afternoon thunderstorms Sunday.