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Office: RLX

FXUS61 KRLX 131456
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
956 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers coming to an end this morning. Another system
arrives by late week with another chance for snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Wednesday...
Current forecast on track. No other changes are expected.


As of 325 AM Wednesday...

Still a few snow showers in the mountains this morning, but they
will likely come to an end around daybreak as flow shifts from
northwesterly to westerly. Generally, the amounts have not quite
been as high as forecast and with snow showers tapering off we
have dropped the winter weather advisory.

Start the morning off very chilly in the mountains this
morning, where a wind chill advisory remains in effect until
early this afternoon. Temperatures will moderate through the day
today as weak warm air advection pushes in as a warm front
passes this afternoon. A weak clipper system will pass to our
north tonight and drag a trailing cold front across the early
during the early morning hours on Thursday. Cold air aloft moves
in quite quickly with this system so any precipitation will
likely fall as snow, but can't rule out a brief period of some
mixing. This system will mostly affect the Northern CWA with
very little if any snow expected across Northeast KY, and
Southern and South Central WV. There will be some upslope
enhancement in the NW flow tomorrow morning, but short wave
moves across fairly quickly and current thinking is that we
should not see much more than 1 to 3 inches total.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 332 AM Wednesday...

Any remaining snow should quickly come to an end as cold high
pressure builds into the area. Another clipper system will
pass by well to our north Friday into Friday night. with the
system so far to the north, models indicate precipitation should
be limited to our northern counties with some precipitation
chances extending south along the mountains counties.

Went with a model blend which resulted in daytime highs Thursday
and Friday mainly in the 30s across the lowlands with some 20s
across the highest elevations. Lows Thursday night will be quite
cold as readings will generally be in the teens across the
north and in the mountain counties with 20s elsewhere. It should
be slightly warmer on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM Wednesday...

High pressure will briefly be in control with any remaining snow
showers ending early on Saturday. A warm front will then sweep
northeast Sunday night with a weak cold front pushing southeast
on Monday. As a result, unsettled weather is expected to return
Sunday into Monday.

After a brief dry period Monday night, another cold front will
push across the region on Tuesday bringing precipitation with it.
Models suggest the moisture will be limited with any
precipitation chances confined to our northern lowland counties
as well as the West Virginia mountains.

Once again, went with a model blend for temperatures.  Expect a
warming trend for the weekend into the beginning of next week
with afternoon temperatures generally near normal for Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 950 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the day today, but clouds
will be on the increase once again this afternoon and evening as
clipper system will cross to our north tonight into Thursday
morning. Mountains will be most likely to see some MVFR/IFR
snow with this weak system and generally MVFR possible
elsewhere through early Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:  Timing of ceilings and snow showers late
tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Another round of snow is expected to last through Thursday
morning, particularly across the north, with IFR conditions
possible in heavier snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ518-
     520-522>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK
NEAR TERM...JS/MPK
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS/MPK