wi discuss
Office: MKX
FXUS63 KMKX 110207 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Line of showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move
through this evening. Gusty winds to 40 MPH are expected, and
small hail may occur. Any severe weather is unlikely.
- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) Sunday
afternoon through Monday, and again mid to late week next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Line of showers and some thunderstorms continues to push
southeast through the area this evening, along a cold front and
a rather potent 500 mb shortwave trough. These showers and
storms are high-based and are becoming outflow dominant with the
past several radar scans.
These are low-topped and working with very little mean layer
CAPE, with the loss of daytime heating. Reports so far have been
for wind gusts to around 40 MPH as this line pushes through.
There may be some small hail that occurs as well, with freezing
levels quite low.
So, would expect the gusts to 40 MPH to be the main theme with
this line of showers and storms through the rest of the
evening. They should move out of the area around midnight CDT.
Winds will shift northwest behind the front, and the clouds
should gradually move out after midnight. This may allow for
some time to see the aurora.
Wood
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Rest of this Afternoon through Saturday night:
A few showers have popped up this afternoon over far
southeastern Wisconsin. These will remain very isolated, and
should have minimal impacts.
Attention then turns to a line of showers and thunderstorms
that will move through the region this evening. These are
associated with a cold front and compact upper level shortwave.
The latest timing brings this activity to the Dells around 6 PM,
the Madison area around 7 PM, and Milwaukee around 9 PM. This
will be a relatively narrow area of precipitation, with rain
chances only lasting an hour or two.
Dry, well mixed low levels and low freezing levels favor
frequent wind gusts to around 40 MPH and small hail with this
activity. A few of the strongest storms may approach severe
limits for a short time, but the severe threat is not expected
to be widespread or persistent.
Once the rain ends, skies should clear for a time late tonight.
Lows will fall into the mid 40s.
Saturday will be a generally pleasant day, with breezy northwest
winds and highs in the 60s. A few showers or sprinkles
will be possible near Lake Michigan during the late morning and
afternoon due to weak convergence and continued cyclonic flow
aloft.
Temperatures Saturday night will fall into the mid 40s, before
holding steady or starting to rise during the latter portion of
the overnight hours, as warm advection commences across the
region.
Boxell
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Sunday through Friday:
A warm Mother's Day is in store for Sunday, with highs expected
to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. A cold front moving
into the area will combine with increasing moisture to set off
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon (20-40% chance)
and especially evening (40-60% chance) hours.
Rain chances continue Monday, especially south of I-94, as a
southern stream shortwave moves through the lower Missouri and
Ohio River Valleys.
Upper level ridging will favor relatively quiet weather Tuesday
and Wednesday, with temperatures around or just a touch above
average. Rain chances increase again late in the week as a
series of shortwaves begin to approach from the west.
Boxell
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Line of showers and some thunderstorms continues to push
southeast through the area this evening, along a cold front.
Reports so far have been for northwest wind gusts to around 40
MPH as this line pushes through. There may be some small hail
that occurs as well, with brief MVFR to IFR visibility drops.
So, would expect the gusts to 40 MPH to be the main theme with
this line of showers and storms through the rest of the
evening. They should move out of the southeast terminals around
midnight CDT.
Light south to southwest winds will shift to the northwest
behind the front, and linger into Saturday. Some gusts to 20
knots may occur on Saturday. A northeast to east lake breeze may
develop in the afternoon close to the lakeshore terminals,
along with an isolated shower.
VFR category clouds should gradually move out after midnight,
though they may linger at Sheboygan into Saturday. These clouds
may build back into the area on Saturday for terminals near Lake
Michigan.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Low pressure around 29.7 inches over northeast Wisconsin will
move across northern Lake Michigan overnight, then deepen
slightly and slow down over Lake Huron on Saturday. It will drag
a cold front across the lake into the overnight hours, and
bring showers and a few thunderstorms with it.
Modest south to southwest winds will shift to northwest with
the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. Weak high
pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across the lake
Saturday evening, with south winds returning and becoming breezy
after it passes for Sunday.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Office: ARX
FXUS63 KARX 102347
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
647 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be showers and scattered storms this afternoon and
evening. These will produce gusty winds. The strongest storms
might produce isolated damaging winds.
- Good viewing conditions are expected for the auroras tonight.
- Additional showers and storms expected from Mothers Day into
Monday evening. Severe weather is not anticipated at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
This Afternoon and Evening - Showers and Scattered Storms
A 500 mb shortwave will move southeast through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. 10.12z HREF probabilities of greater 40 dBZ and
greater than 50 J/kg MUCAPE ranged from to 30 to 50% west of the
Mississippi River and 50 to 90% across central and western
Wisconsin. The highest probabilities are between 5 PM and 10 PM.
Soundings continue to show an inverted V sounding in the sub-
cloud layer. In addition, there will be rather steep 650-900 mb
lapse rates (8-10 C/km), so we are looking at gusty winds from
these storms. The HREF 4-hour maximum 10 meter AGL winds were
mainly below 40 knots. The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook keeps
central and western Wisconsin, and southeast Minnesota in a
Marginal Risk (risk 1 out of 5) of severe weather. This makes
sense since a few of the stronger low-top storms might produce
isolated wind damage.
Overnight - Good viewing conditions expected for the auroras
tonight
The first of 7 Earth-directed coronal mass ejections arrived shortly
before noon. The solar wind has climbed to nearly 700 km/sec and the
density is over 27 protons/cm3. The interplanetary magnetic field is
currently south. The planetary K-index (Kp) has already
increased to 7. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
continues to forecast that the Kp is expected to climb over 8
overnight. These values are favorable for our area to see
auroras.
10.12z models are in fairly good agreement that skies will be mainly
clear overnight. Temperatures would range from the upper 30s to mid-
40s. Northwest winds will be generally less than 10 knots. This will
slightly lower the wind chills. They are expected to range from the
mid-30s to lower 40s.
Saturday - Mostly sunny and dry
Saturday continues to show that high pressure will build across the
region. 850 mb temperatures will be 1 to 3C cooler, so high
temperatures are expected to range from the mid-60s to around 70.
Soundings continue to support slightly lower surface dew points, so
used the NBM 10th percentile to lower them some. This would lower
afternoon relative humidities into the 20s and 30s. The northwest
winds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range with wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph.
Mothers Day through Monday Evening - Additional showers and
storms expected
A Canadian cold front will move into the area during the afternoon
and evening of Mothers Day and linger over the area into Monday
evening. This front will be the focus for some showers and storms.
Like the past couple of days, the 0-6 km shear remains 25 knots or
less, so severe chances look rather low. High temperatures will
range from the mid-70s to lower 80s on Mothers Day and range from
the mid-60s to lower 70s on Monday.
Tuesday Night through Thursday - Much uncertainty
The 500 mb pattern becomes much more uncertain. Some models are
showing phasing between the northern and southern streams.
Others are showing little phasing between these two streams.
There is even some which have shortwave ridging over the area.
As a result, just stayed with the NBM for both temperatures and
precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
A cold front continues to move through along with a band of
showers and thunderstorms. This precipitation band is mostly in
central and western portions of Wisconsin. Gusty winds are the
primary threat with these storms. Southwest winds will shift to
northwest winds after the front pushes through. These northwest
winds will continue through the TAF period. Some mid-level
clouds will be in the area for the next couple of hours before
clearing out for the overnight period.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Cecava
Office: GRB
FXUS63 KGRB 102356
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
656 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick moving cold front will bring showers and a few storms to
the region late this afternoon into this evening. A few storms
may contain gusty winds to 40 mph and small hail, but severe
weather is not expected.
- An unsettled weather pattern will bring intermittent chances of
showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend. Severe weather is
not expected with any of these thunderstorms, but we will be
watching for the potential for strong storms on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Saturday
A strong upper trough but weak surface trough will
move across the region during the late afternoon and early evening
hours and bring a short period of showers and thunderstorms. While
upper system is somewhat impressive, moisture is limited and low
level forcing is weak. So we expect a few storms with small hail
and wind gusts to 40 mph but severe storms look unlikely.
Those wishing to look for the Northern Lights will probably find
less clouds across the southern half of the forecast area
tonight. Lows will be in the 40s.
Saturday will be sunny and mild, with a small chance of an afternoon
shower near the lake breezes in east central Wisconsin. Highs will
be a few degrees above normal for this time of the year.
Long Term...Saturday Night Through Friday
Precipitation trends remain the focus of the extended forecast, in
particular for Sunday where a cold front will be passing through
during peak heating.
Precipitation Trends...
A warm front will bring a surge of warmer air into the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could bring a few
scattered showers to the region by the warming but remain devoid
of thunder. Attention then turns to the development of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Surface based instability
parameters will be the main thing to watch for Sunday, as these
will largely dictate the strength and impacts of any storms in the
afternoon and evening. The GFS and NAM both bring around 1500-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE into the region during the afternoon, but this is
heavily reliant on dewpoints surging from the middle 40s in the
morning to the upper 50s to lower 60s by the early to mid
afternoon. While this continues to seem overzealous, especially as
the ECMWF also keeps dewpoints in the middle 50s, this will bear
watching, especially as two of the major models now feature this
surge of higher moisture values. Deep shear values will remain
relatively low on the other hand, around 20 to 25 knots so
widespread severe weather seems unlikely. All together, Sunday
will have the potential for pulse thunderstorms, which could
produce some small hail and strong wind gusts. The ultimate
strength of the wind gusts and whether severe weather wording gets
added to the forecast will largely depend on the surface
parameters over the next couple forecast cycles.
Quieter conditions will follow this Sunday system. The next chance
for widespread rainfall will be late Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures...
Sunday continues to be the warmest day in the forecast, with highs
in at least the 70s everywhere and a few warm spots getting into
the lower 80s. Behind this, the rest of the forecast is mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
A cold front will bring a 1-2 hour period of showers and isolated
thunderstorms the rest of the evening at GRB, ATW and MTW. The
showers have already shifted past RHI and will shortly exit AUW
and CWA. The main impact from these showers will be a wind shift
to the northwest with gusts of 25-35 kts. Brief heavy rain will
bring vsby down to MVFR. The showers will exit all TAF sites by
3-4z.
There could be a period of MVFR ceilings north of a Ironwood to
Antigo to Green Bay line late tonight and early Saturday morning,
but VFR flight conditions are likely elsewhere. Good flying
weather is expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....RDM/Uhlmann
AVIATION.......JLA
