va discuss
Office: AKQ
FXUS61 KAKQ 092335
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures expected again tonight that will lead to any
snowmelt to refreeze on untreated surfaces. Slightly "warmer"
temperatures tomorrow with windy conditions ahead on a cold
front. Uncertainty still remains with multiple systems late this
week and at the end of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures drop/remain below freezing tonight allowing for any
melted snow to refreeze.
- Windy but "warmer" day tomorrow as a warm front pushes through the
area.
Afternoon weather analysis shows moderate to strong zonal flow
aloft. While at the surface, a 1022mb high pressure remains over the
area. Skies remain clear to mostly clear with some high level clouds
moving across the Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures have
warmed this afternoon, however, some areas continue to remain below
freezing due to the remaining snow. Across the SE temperatures are
in the mid 30s to low 40s along the coastline. While across the
Piedmont and VA Eastern Shore temps are in the upper 20s to lower
30s. The MD eastern Shore and Northern Neck temps are in the middle
30s. Once the sunsets tonight temperatures will drop rapidly and any
snow that has melted will begin to refreeze. This will lead to black
ice forming on untreated surface and could cause hazardous travel
conditions tonight and early in the morning. The high pressure will
slowly move offshore tonight and will shift our winds out of the SW.
This will lead to temperatures warming but staying below freezing
tonight. The lowest temperatures are expected to be early on tonight
with lows reaching into the middle to upper 20s inland with some
isolated lower 20s and lower 30s along the coast. For Wednesday, a
strong low pressure system will be tracking to the north of the area
across the Great Lakes. As this system tracks across that area a
warm front will push across the area helping to warm temps into the
middle to upper 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. In
addition to the warmer temperatures a windy day is expected as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts are
expected to be between 25 to 30 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temperatures again Thursday in wake of the cold front.
- Potential for another clipper system Friday.
A large trough will be centered over much of the eastern half of the
United States resulting in NW flow aloft across the area. At the
surface, a high pressure will come back out of Canada ushering in
another round of cooler and drier air. This high pressure is not
expected to be as strong and lows Wednesday night will only fall
into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and middle 30s across the far
SE and coast. Thursday will be cooler as the high remains over head
with temperatures reaching into the low to middle 40s. There
continues to remain some uncertainty for Friday. Deterministic
models and their ensembles continue to remain in some disagreement.
On Friday the high pressure is expected to slide offshore a a weak
clipper system is expected to move over the area. This clipper
system could potentially lead to additional snow showers across the
northern half of the area. The question remains will there be enough
moisture and if so how much snow could potentially fall. At this
time, not expecting much due to the uncertainty. The latest ECMWF
shows 30 to 50% of 1" of snow across the far NW as the GEFS has
around 10%. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...
- Dry and "warmer" weather is expected Saturday with another system
bringing some potential precipitation again Sunday.
- Much colder airmass moves in late Sunday bringing lows down into
the middle teens at night and only upper 30s Monday.
Strong troughing is expected to be over the area during the weekend
with NW flow aloft persisting. High pressure is expected to remain
over much of the area Saturday with dry weather conditions expected.
Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to middle
50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s. There still remains some uncertainty for Sunday due to
the inconsistency from the ensembles. There is the potential for
some additional precipitation some potentially wintry. However, at
this time pops have been capped off no higher than 35%. Behind the
potential system Sunday a moderate to strong high pressure will move
out of Canada ushering in an arctic airmass. Lows SUnday are progged
to be in the middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast. This
colder airmass will be locked in place through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Tuesday...
Primarily VFR is expected through 00z Thursday. While CIGs
tonight will be dominated by high-level cloud cover, some model
guidance (along with current obs in the Piedmont) suggest some
MVFR CIGs could attempt to move eastward into RIC later tonight
into early Wednesday morning. These lower CIGs would likely
dissipate after 14z or so. Have only mentioned this via a TEMPO
due to lower confidence. Otherwise, mostly cloudy Wednesday
with mid- high level cloud cover increasing ahead of a cold
front. SW winds also become quite breezy ahead of the front,
with wind speeds around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt
along the coast). Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet
could lead to southwesterly LLWS at RIC tonight, followed by
LLWS at all terminals after 21/22z Wednesday. There is a very
low chance of an isolated shower across the area as the front
moves through in the evening, but PoPs are <20%.
Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post-
frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger light
rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for snow
across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Winds increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings a re
in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in effect
for most others zones in the marine area.
- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later
Sunday.
High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon. The wind is light and generally out of the W to NW. Seas
range from 3-4ft N to 5-6ft S. High pressure slides offshore tonight
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure lifts NE through the
Great Lakes Wednesday, with the trailing cold front crossing the
coast later Wednesday evening into overnight Wednesday night. A SW
wind will increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday, with additional
mixing with the frontal passage Wednesday evening. Wind probs for >=
34kt gusts are >70% N of Cape Charles (highest out near 20nm), and
forecast soundings from the 09/12z NAM/GFS suggest a period of gale
force gusts Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening. Therefore, the
Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. Elsewhere, a SW wind
is expected to increase to 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt and SCAs have
been issued for the Ches. Bay (beginning later tonight), the lower
James (beginning early Wed morning), the Currituck (beginning Wed
aftn), and continuing for the southern coastal waters all through
late Wed night/Thu morning. Seas build to 4-6ft S to 5-8ft N, with 3-
4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The upper rivers may eventually need an
SCA for a few hours Wed aftn.
High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday night. A
weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the region Friday
night. High pressure then settles over the Southeast Saturday. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected to prevail Thursday aftn through at
least Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the coast later Sunday
into Sunday night with high pressure returning Monday. At least SCA
conditions are expected based on the 09/12z guidance.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654.
Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
Office: RNK
FXUS61 KRNK 092328
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
628 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass across the region Wednesday
afternoon, bringing wind, and triggering another round of snow
showers that will mainly impact the mountains, particularly the
higher mountains from southeast West Virginia through the High
Country of North Carolina. Another disturbance has the potential
to bring a mixture of mountain rain and snow on Friday,
followed by a strong cold front during the coming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Tuesday...
Updated forecast reflects lingering cloudiness this evening east
of the Blue Ridge with some clearing west, then clouds increase
overnight.
Key Messages:
1) A fast-moving cold front will bring wind and showers to the
area Wednesday with accumulating snow along the western slopes
of the Appalachians Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
2) Blizzard Warning issued for the WV Highlands...northwest of
Lewisburg, WV. A Winter Weather Advisory issued for the
remainder of the WV/VA western slopes from Bluefield and
Tazewell to Mount Rogers.
3) Wind and/or Winter Weather advisories may be needed for the
NC High Country.
Confidence is increasing that a disturbance and associated cold
front will bring another round of snow Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night for the western parts of the forecast area.
Warmer air will arrive for Wednesday given windflow from the
southwest as our next cold front approaches. Latest forecast
data suggests that rain showers will make their way across the
mountains during the day Wednesday, with rain changing to snow
Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold front pushes rapidly east
across the mountains. Latest data supports snowfall totals of
1" to 3" falling from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
from Bluefield WV to Boone, NC., with amounts of 4 to 8 inches
in the mountains northwest of Lewisburg WV. Winds are forecast
to gust between 30-50 mph, so this is what is driving the need
for a Blizzard Warning for parts of WV, and also contributing to
the decision to go with Winter Weather Advisories farther south
where blowing snow will also be part of the equation. Will also
be closely assessing need to expand the advisory farther south
into the NC High Country...combination of wind, snow and blowing
snow being the primary focus.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Mountain snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
2) Better chance of snow along/northwest of I-81 on Friday.
A low pressure system over the northeastern US will drag a cold
front through the area Wednesday night. This front will cause
rain/snow showers to occur west of the Blue Ridge, with dry weather
expected across the Piedmont. Snow totals will remain light, from a
dusting to at most a half inch. However, for the higher elevations,
1-3" can be expected, and for the mountain tops and Western
Greenbrier County, 4-8" is possible. Wednesday night will also be
very windy, with northwest winds of 15-25 mph along/west of the Blue
Ridge, gusting to 35-45 mph at times, which combined with the snow,
could see blizzard-like conditions. Snow continues into Thursday
morning, with flurries possible through midday.
Thursday afternoon will be quiet, with no precipitation expected.
The break is brief, as the next system will move into the area from
the northern Great Plains. Cold air will already be in place, and
the disturbance will track across the mountains, bringing a chance
of snow Friday morning to a good chunk of the area. Light snow is
possible anywhere north of the NC/VA state line, but the best chance
will be, per usual, along/west of the Blue Ridge. The system moves
through quickly and is gone by Friday night. Accumulations will
again be light, with a dusting to a few tenths possible along I-81,
with the higher totals being in WV, where 1-3" is possible. Western
Greenbrier will again be the hot spot, with 3-5". Friday night will
see quiet and dry weather return to the area.
Temperatures remain below normal, with highs in the 30s/40s each
day. The higher elevations will likely not get out of the 20s on
Thursday. Lows remain consistent, in the 20s to low 30s each morning
due to increased cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Another storm system possible on Sunday, but confidence is low.
2) Quiet weather for early next week, but it remains chilly.
Saturday looks to be a quiet day, but there is some uncertainty in
the forecast for the late weekend, as models diverge on the location
and strength of a potential system moving through the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Rain/snow will be possible as a front and upper-
level trough move through. Due to the discrepancy amongst models,
PoPs are kept around 30-40%, mainly for west of the Blue Ridge. If
the system remains weak, then there will be little impacts to our
area, but if it strengthens, snow totals could rise. Upslope snow
behind the front will continue for the western facing mountains,
particularly in WV through Monday morning. Models do agree that
behind the Sunday system, high pressure will build into the Mid-
Atlantic Region and keep dry and quiet weather in place for early
next week, though it will be cold. Skies finally clear out for the
first time in nearly a week area-wide, with a good chance of seeing
a strange yellow ball in the sky we call the sun.
Temperatures will be well below normal once again through the
period, at least behind the front. Saturday will have highs in the
40s/50s, with some 30s in the higher elevations. The FROPA on Sunday
will cause temperatures to fall drastically for the mountains, with
highs in the 20s/30s, and 40s for the Piedmont. By Monday, highs
will be in the 20s/30s area-wide, somewhat recovering into the
30s/40s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will also widely vary, in the
20s/30s ahead of the front, but plummeting into the single digits
and teens for Monday morning, before recovering into the Teens/20s
for Tuesday morning. Wind chills Monday morning will be in the
single digits west of the Blue Ridge, with below zero wind chills
for the highest elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 623 PM EST Tuesday...
MVFR/IFR ceilings remain in place near and east the Blue Ridge
at times through 03z, then VFR expected through 18z Wed.
Concern later tonight and early Wednesday once the low clouds
clear is the development of LLWS. Winds just above the surface
are forecast to increase out of the southwest at 50kts,
especially along/west of the Blue Ridge.
Southwest winds will start pick up after 15z Wed, with gusts
into the afternoon running 20-30kts. Expect rain mixing with
snow at BLF/LWB after 20z, with cigs sinking to low end
MVFR/high end IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK...
Sub-VFR conditions Wednesday evening into Thursday for the
mountains with upslope clouds and snow showers. West to
northwest winds will be gusty into Thursday. Another system
could bring sub-VFR wx/cigs/vsbys Friday especially in the
mountains. Somewhat of a reprieve Saturday before yet another
system arrives Sat night-Sunday. Confidence beyond Friday is
low on cigs/vsbys/wx.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
Thursday for VAZ007-009-015.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
Thursday for WVZ042-043.
Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
for WVZ508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM/WP
Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 091907
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will drift offshore tonight. A quick
moving clipper system will pass through the Great Lakes
Wednesday. A secondary cold front will follow suit on Thursday.
Another fast moving frontal system will likely reach the area
by late Friday. A wave of low pressure may impact the area
Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will glide offshore through tonight. Mid and high
level clouds will increase as a clipper system traverses the
Midwest. A few flurries could approach western Maryland during
the pre-dawn hours, but the accumulating snow is not expected to
begin until later Wednesday morning.
Low temperatures will be "milder" (relatively speaking) tonight
thanks to the increasing clouds and a steady southerly wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Initially focusing on the Alleghenies, the leading edge of a
trough will bring an initial rain/snow mix to start the day on
Wednesday. However, thermal profiles quickly shift over to all
snow along the western slopes of the Alleghenies. Omega fields
are fairly impressive which supports the potential for bursts of
snow showers as this trough axis passes through. Ample low-level
CAPE should result in squalls, with one wave during the late
morning and another during the mid/late afternoon into the
evening. Lift/CAPE doesn't squarely overlap the DGZ during this
time, but that changes after midnight Wednesday night as the
column cools. Snow showers likely spill east of the Eastern
Continental Divide late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with
perhaps a dusting as far east as Cumberland-Keyser-Petersburg-
Franklin-Monterey.
Blustery winds will favor areas of blowing snow which could
lead to significant reductions in visibility and blizzard
conditions, especially along and west of the Allegheny Front
where Blizzard Warnings have been issued. Be sure to check the
forecast at weather.gov/lwx and weather.gov/lwx/winter.
Elsewhere, some light precipitation is possible along and north
of US-50, particularly closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. For
activity that does make it out to northern Maryland, early
morning thermal profiles would favor a light wintry mix. Any
accumulations would be minimal and focus over the Catoctins.
Despite ample clouds, temperatures warm through the day aided by
the breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 mph (30 to 40 mph
across the mountains). Highs are forecast to reach the mid/upper
40s, with some low 50s possible.
Winds begin to shift to westerly by Wednesday evening as the
cold front tied to the clipper system passes through. While
clouds decrease through the night, upslope-aided snow showers
continue along and west of the Alleghenies into Thursday.
Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s (teens
to mid 20s for the mountains). The blustery conditions should
lower wind chills into the single digits over the higher terrain.
Temperatures return to below average on Thursday behind the
strong cold front. The broad deep upper low across the
northeastern U.S. will also keep some clouds around. As
mentioned earlier, snow showers continue for the Alleghenies
which will further pile up at a number of spots. Conditions over
the Alleghenies should be cold and blustery as Thursday's highs
remain in the upper teens to 20s. The gusty west-northwesterlies
drop wind chills into the single digits again. Weak high
pressure builds in for Thursday night as lows fall into the
upper teens to 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak disturbance embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft
will approach from the Ohio Valley on Friday. Precipitation
associated with this system will be light, but 12z guidance has
trended slightly upward with totals across our area. Plenty of cold
air will be in place at both the surface and aloft on Friday.
Temperatures may briefly climb into the mid to upper 30s, but would
quickly wet-bulb back below freezing with onset of precipitation. As
a result, precipitation type is expected to be all snow with this
system. Model soundings show the strongest lift intersecting the
dendritic snow growth zone, so a dry, fluffy, high SLR snow
character appears likely. Most solutions show snow breaking out
during the morning hours to the west of the Blue Ridge, and then
spreading to the east of the Blue Ridge by the afternoon and
evening. Snow totals will likely be on the lighter side, with most
model solutions showing between a coating and two inches. Depending
on the exact track of the system, some locations may experience no
precipitation at all. Given potential impacts to the Friday evening
commute, this system will bear watching over the coming days.
After a brief break during the daylight hours Saturday, another much
more potent disturbance will dive southeastward toward the area from
the Great Lakes. This will also be a very moisture-starved, northern
stream system. As a result, it will struggle to produce any more
than a little light precipitation, and some locations may again
receive no precipitation. It appears as though guidance is
trending a bit warmer ahead of this system, so precipitation
could occur as rain or snow, with the greatest chance occurring
Saturday night.
Strong cold advection will ensue behind that system on Sunday as
upper troughing moves overhead and a strong, 1040+ hPa high builds
southward across the Midwest. Strong northwesterly winds will usher
an Arctic airmass into the region, leading to the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far. Temperatures are forecast to
drop into the teens Sunday night (single digits in the mountains),
with wind chills in the single digits above/below zero. Cold but dry
conditions will persist through Monday as high pressure builds
overhead. Temperatures are forecast to max out in the upper 20s and
lower 30s on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Thursday across the
area. Canadian high pressure initially centered over the region
will gradually push offshore tonight. Some elevated breezes
continue into the evening/night. Removed LLWS from the TAFs
given not much directional change with height and a steady
surface wind persisting through much of the night.
By Wednesday, southerly winds further increase ahead of a quick
moving clipper system. Some brief restrictions are possible
15Z-21Z Wednesday at northern terminals as light precip tracks
through. Otherwise, most stay dry through the day with southerly
gusts to around 20 to 25 knots. The accompanying cold front
races across the region by Wednesday evening which ushers in a
gusty west-northwesterly wind in the wake. Northwesterly
breezes remain elevated into Thursday as an upper low passes to
the north.
VFR conditions are expected Friday morning. Sub-VFR conditions
appear possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening, and then
potentially again Saturday night in association with snow. Winds are
forecast to be out of the southwest on Friday, before turning out of
the west on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will push offshore tonight which aids in
southerly channeling effects. The uptick in southerly winds
continue into much of Wednesday ahead of a cold front. While
some gale-force winds are noted in the column, most gusts should
stay in the 25-30 knot range.
By Wednesday evening/night, winds shift to west-northwesterly
behind the cold front with continued advisory-caliber winds
overspreading the waters. Hazardous marine conditions continue
into Thursday as northwesterlies gust to around 20 to 25 knots.
Sub-SCA level southwesterly winds are expected on Friday. SCA
conditions appear possible within westerly flow on Saturday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
While current tidal anomalies are around 0.25 to 0.50 feet,
expect these to rise through Wednesday in response to the shift
to southerly flow. This does bring Annapolis and possibly Havre
de Grace into Action stage. However, this is rather brief
before water levels quickly fall behind the strong clipper-type
system during subsequent days.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Thursday for MDZ008.
Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
for MDZ509.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
Thursday for MDZ510.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
Thursday for VAZ503.
WV...Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Thursday for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO/DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...BRO/DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
