va discuss
Office: AKQ
FXUS61 KAKQ 190815
AFDAKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
415 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure right over the area this morning, will slide off
the coast this afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross
the area during Saturday. Another Canadian high pressure system
builds into the region Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Early this morning, sfc high pressure was right over the area,
providing a clear sky and cold temps. Temps ranged fm the lower
30s to the lower 40s. Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9
AM this morning for central, east-central and south central VA,
and the Lower MD ern shore.
After the cold start, expect milder conditions this aftn under a
mostly sunny sky, as the high slides offshore providing a SSW
wind of 5-10 kt. High temps will climb into the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
A cold front will approach fm the WNW this evening/tonight and
moves thru the region during Sat. PoPs are ~60-70% for a period
of rain across the Piedmont and central VA late tonight into
Sat morning, then into the Ern Shore, SE VA, and NE NC Sat
morning into Sat aftn. PoPs then taper to 20-40% later Sat aftn
for showers over e-central VA, the Ern Shore, and NE NC. QPF of
arnd 0.25" or less is expected for most of the area. Milder
tonight with lows in the 50s. Expecting at least some sunshine
Sat aftn into early Sat evening once pcpn ends fm NW to SE.
Highs will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s
A potent nrn stream trough digs across the region Sat night
into Sun morning. This could result in some lingering SC and a
few showers over the VA Nrn Neck/Ern Shore Sat night. Otherwise,
drier/cooler air will arrive fm the NW. Forecast lows Sat night
will range fm the lower 40s WNW, to the upper 40s/lower 50s SE.
Cool, mostly sunny, and a breezy NW wind on Sun with highs
ranging fm the mid 50s NW, to arnd 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...
After persistent low-level CAA during the day on Sunday,
~1030mb sfc high pressure settles over the western half of
Virginia Sunday night. With clear skies and light winds, expect
a cold night across the area, with temperatures possibly
approaching a 32F over a few inland locations (most likely over
the western CWA) early Monday morning. Low temperatures will
range from the low-mid 30s inland to the 40s along the immediate
coast.
The area of high pressure quickly moves offshore on Monday.
This will allow winds to turn back to the south, setting the
stage for a very modest warm-up early next week. The warm-up
will be short lived, as low pressure (sfc-aloft) passes to our
north on Tue/Tue night. This will drag another cold front
through our area late Tue- Wed. The latest 18/12z suite of
guidance continues to (strongly) suggest a dry FROPA. Highs in
the upper 50s-low 60s on Mon will rise into the mid 60s
NW/around 70 SE on Tue. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s-
mid 40s on Tue. Behind the front, sfc high pressure moves from
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Wed/Thu. This
setup will likely keep our temperatures below seasonal averages
from mid-late next week. Forecast highs on Wed are in the low-
mid 60s, cooling to the mid 50s-low 60s on Thu. Rain chances
potentially make a return to the area Thursday night into next
weekend, as models are hinting at the development of low
pressure off the southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Cool continental high pressure right over the area this morning,
was providing a clear sky and very light/no wind at the TAF
sites. High pressure slides offshore this aftn and evening, with
a SSW wind of 5-10 kt expected to develop. SKC at the TAF sites
this morning into this aftn, with some increasing high clouds
fm the west late in the day.
A cold front approaches fm the WNW this evening/tonight and
moves thru the region during Sat. This will bring a period of
mainly light rain, along with the potential for a period of
lower cigs/vsbys (mainly MVFR). VFR conditions will return
behind the front Sat aftn into Sat evening.
Outlook: Breezy conditions are expected late Sat night into Sun
in a NW wind, as the front exits and more cool high pressure
builds twd the area. High pressure provides dry wx and VFR
conditions Sun aftn thru Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Fast moving upr lvl flow results in quick changes to the marine
forecast over the next several days. Currently, high pressure is
overhead and will move offshore today. Thus, the north winds become
SSW aob 15 kt this aftrn. Pressure gradient tightens tonight ahead
of another strong cold front progged across the waters late Sat.
Winds increase to 15-25 kts so have raised SCA flags across the Ches
Bay and adjacent coastal waters north of the VA/NC border tonight
through Sat morning. Waves increase 2-4 ft with 3-5 ft seas.
Models point to a "lull" in the winds late Sat before anther strong
CAA surge sets in Sat night/Sun. Have elected to end the SSW SCA
headline Sat for now.
Latest data continues to suggest some low end gale force gusts Sat
night and early Sun with the CAA surge behind the cold front. Will
continue to highlight gusts to 35 kts in the text but not hoist any
gale headlines with this package. Prefer to treat each synoptic
event seperate allowing later shifts to hoist gale headlines if the
confidence increases. Diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected
early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
River flood warning is still in effect for the Nottoway River
at Sebrell. See FLSAKQ for site-specific details.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>083-085-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT
Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ631-632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
FXUS61 KAKQ 190817
AFDAKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure right over the area this morning, will slide off
the coast this afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross
the area during Saturday. Another Canadian high pressure system
builds into the region Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Early this morning, sfc high pressure was right over the area,
providing a clear sky and cold temps. Temps ranged fm the lower
30s to the lower 40s. Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9
AM this morning for central, east-central and south central VA,
and the Lower MD ern shore.
After the cold start, expect milder conditions this aftn under a
mostly sunny sky, as the high slides offshore providing a SSW
wind of 5-10 kt. High temps will climb into the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
A cold front will approach fm the WNW this evening/tonight and
moves thru the region during Sat. PoPs are ~60-70% for a period
of rain across the Piedmont and central VA late tonight into
Sat morning, then into the Ern Shore, SE VA, and NE NC Sat
morning into Sat aftn. PoPs then taper to 20-40% later Sat aftn
for showers over e-central VA, the Ern Shore, and NE NC. QPF of
arnd 0.25" or less is expected for most of the area. Milder
tonight with lows in the 50s. Expecting at least some sunshine
Sat aftn into early Sat evening once pcpn ends fm NW to SE.
Highs will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s
A potent nrn stream trough digs across the region Sat night
into Sun morning. This could result in some lingering SC and a
few showers over the VA Nrn Neck/Ern Shore Sat night. Otherwise,
drier/cooler air will arrive fm the NW. Forecast lows Sat night
will range fm the lower 40s WNW, to the upper 40s/lower 50s SE.
Cool, mostly sunny, and a breezy NW wind on Sun with highs
ranging fm the mid 50s NW, to arnd 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...
After persistent low-level CAA during the day on Sunday,
~1030mb sfc high pressure settles over the western half of
Virginia Sunday night. With clear skies and light winds, expect
a cold night across the area, with temperatures possibly
approaching a 32F over a few inland locations (most likely over
the western CWA) early Monday morning. Low temperatures will
range from the low-mid 30s inland to the 40s along the immediate
coast.
The area of high pressure quickly moves offshore on Monday.
This will allow winds to turn back to the south, setting the
stage for a very modest warm-up early next week. The warm-up
will be short lived, as low pressure (sfc-aloft) passes to our
north on Tue/Tue night. This will drag another cold front
through our area late Tue- Wed. The latest 18/12z suite of
guidance continues to (strongly) suggest a dry FROPA. Highs in
the upper 50s-low 60s on Mon will rise into the mid 60s
NW/around 70 SE on Tue. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s-
mid 40s on Tue. Behind the front, sfc high pressure moves from
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Wed/Thu. This
setup will likely keep our temperatures below seasonal averages
from mid-late next week. Forecast highs on Wed are in the low-
mid 60s, cooling to the mid 50s-low 60s on Thu. Rain chances
potentially make a return to the area Thursday night into next
weekend, as models are hinting at the development of low
pressure off the southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Cool continental high pressure right over the area this morning,
was providing a clear sky and very light/no wind at the TAF
sites. High pressure slides offshore this aftn and evening, with
a SSW wind of 5-10 kt expected to develop. SKC at the TAF sites
this morning into this aftn, with some increasing high clouds
fm the west late in the day.
A cold front approaches fm the WNW this evening/tonight and
moves thru the region during Sat. This will bring a period of
mainly light rain, along with the potential for a period of
lower cigs/vsbys (mainly MVFR). VFR conditions will return
behind the front Sat aftn into Sat evening.
Outlook: Breezy conditions are expected late Sat night into Sun
in a NW wind, as the front exits and more cool high pressure
builds twd the area. High pressure provides dry wx and VFR
conditions Sun aftn thru Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...
Fast moving upr lvl flow results in quick changes to the marine
forecast over the next several days. Currently, high pressure is
overhead and will move offshore today. Thus, the north winds become
SSW aob 15 kt this aftrn. Pressure gradient tightens tonight ahead
of another strong cold front progged across the waters late Sat.
Winds increase to 15-25 kts so have raised SCA flags across the Ches
Bay and adjacent coastal waters north of the VA/NC border tonight
through Sat morning. Waves increase 2-4 ft with 3-5 ft seas.
Models point to a "lull" in the winds late Sat before anther strong
CAA surge sets in Sat night/Sun. Have elected to end the SSW SCA
headline Sat for now.
Latest data continues to suggest some low end gale force gusts Sat
night and early Sun with the CAA surge behind the cold front. Will
continue to highlight gusts to 35 kts in the text but not hoist any
gale headlines with this package. Prefer to treat each synoptic
event seperate allowing later shifts to hoist gale headlines if the
confidence increases. Diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected
early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
River flood warning is still in effect for the Nottoway River
at Sebrell. See FLSAKQ for site-specific details.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>083-085-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT
Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ631-632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
Office: RNK
FXUS61 KRNK 191124
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
724 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will pass east and offshore by
this afternoon. A cold front will approach from the northwest
tonight before passing southeast and through the region on
Saturday. By Sunday this front will be well off the southeast
coast with colder high pressure building over the area for
Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
00z (8PM) UA analysis continues show the Mid Atlantic wedged
between an upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and a
deepening upper trough over the northeastern CONUS. At the
surface, subsidence continues to be the primary weather driver,
with the center of the high pressure edging east of the
Appalachians.
Skies have remained clear overnight, allowing temperatures to drop
significantly, settling in the mid to upper 30s (Mountains) to low
40s (Piedmont). A few in-situ measurements across the Greenbrier
Valley even indicate sub-freezing temperatures, but these are likely
to be few and far between tonight, and secluded to the valley
locations while the ridges see a bit of non-diurnal warming. Frost
formation, however, is likely, especially across the mountains and
northern Piedmont counties. Here, a Frost Advisory continues through
9am. Elsewhere, patchy frost formation can't be ruled out around
sunrise, thanks to calm winds and mid 30 temps, but this should be
localized at best.
Temperatures will rebound nicely across the region on Friday as the
area of high pressure drifts offshore, allowing southwesterly flow
to establish after mixing is allowed mid morning. This should supply
plentiful sunshine through at least mid day, with a band of upper
level cirrus likely spreading across the region from west to east by
Friday afternoon thanks to upper-diffluence aloft. In all, expect a
25 to 35 degree rise in temperatures during the day, with most
topping out in the upper-50s (Mountains) to low 60s (Piedmont).
Confidence is above average for cloud cover and wind and
average for all other elements.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...
A broad upper level trough over southern Canada and Great Lakes
region will deepen and translate eastward into Sunday. This trough
axis will push off into the Atlantic ocean by Sunday night. A strong
cold front will move east across the region Saturday and be offshore
Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from around 50
degrees in the mountains to near 70 degrees in the Piedmont with the
help of downsloping winds. The upper level trough will intensifies
as it moves east Saturday night. Shortwaves will rotate east across
the upper trough. This will result in upslope precipitation to
western slopes of southeast West Virginia and southwest Virginia
overnight. PTYPE will start as rain showers then transition over to
snow through the evening into Saturday night as strong cold air
advection enters the region. The bulk of the moisture will stay
north of I-64 with accumulations of 1-2 inches along higher
elevations of Western Greenbrier. Elsewhere warm ground should limit
snow accumulations to a couple of tenths on grassy surfaces. The
combination of strong cold advection and pressure rises will result
in gusty winds Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Wind speed may
approach wind advisory levels along the Blue ridge. The strongest
winds are expected across the southwest mountains. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be cold with readings from the mid 20s in the
mountains to around 40 degrees in the piedmont. High pressure across
the Ohio valley Sunday will build east and be centered over our area
Sunday night. With a cold start to the day, Sunday afternoon high
temperatures will vary from around 40 degrees in the mountains to
the mid 50s in the east. With mostly clear skies and light winds
expect good radiational cooling Sunday night with low temperatures
generally from the low to mid 30s. These cold temperatures may end
the growing season for the area with many locations seeing areas of
frost.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 238 PM EDT Thursday...
Cold high pressure skirts across the area Monday. With dry air
and full sun, temperatures will warm back into the 50s. However,
these temperatures are around 10F cooler than normal.
Temperature warm closer to normal on Tuesday as warm air advects
into the region ahead of the next cold front. This cold front,
which will move over the area Tuesday night, will be moisture
starved with only an increase in clouds expected. Another area
of high pressure will move over the region Wednesday and stay
wedged over the area through the end of the week. Remnants of a
tropical system from the eastern Pacific (unnamed at this time)
will track in the southern stream and give the area a good
chance for rain by the end of the workweek. While we are under
the influence of a wedge of high pressure, temperatures will run
10F cooler than normal.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 725 AM EDT Friday...
VFR should remain through the TAF forecast period as high
pressure shifts east across the Mid Atlantic. Can't rule out a
brief VSBY drop to MVFR/IFR at KBCB/KLWB pre-dawn, so may
include a brief mention as fog moves out of the river bottoms
early this morning. Mid and high clouds will increase from the
west over the mountains Friday afternoon, with a vicinity shower
or two arriving at KLWB/KBLF possibly by midnight with the
frontal approach. A band of more widespread showers should cross
the region after midnight into early Saturday morning so
including prevailing MVFR cigs and MVFR/VFR vsbys in showers
espcly western spots overnight.
Forecast confidence is average on all elements.
Extended Discussion...
A cold front will cross the Appalachians on Saturday morning.
This will bring a return of rainfall to the area, with the
potential for a generous coverage of MVFR ceilings and localized
MVFR visibilities Saturday morning mainly across
southern/western areas.
High pressure on gusty northwest winds builds in behind the
front Saturday night into Sunday. Wind gusts at higher
elevations may be 30 to 40 knots from the northwest. Upslope
rain and snow showers are also possible in southeast West
Virginia, possibly impacting KLWB briefly.
VFR returns across the region after any residual low clouds
clear Sunday morning. High pressure will keep it VFR into Monday
and Tuesday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007-009>015-
018>020-024-035-045>047-059.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-507.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 190809
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
409 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front
will cross the area late Saturday followed by high pressure for
Sunday night and Monday. Another cold front will cross the area
on Tuesday with high pressure building again over the region
during the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It is chilly this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper
30s. It will be warmer today as winds become southerly as high
pressure shifts offshore. Highs will be in the mid 60s. High
clouds will be on the increase late today with skies becoming
overcast in the early evening. Light showers will break out this
evening in strengthening warm air advection pattern, but
amounts will be light due to dry low-levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Light showers early Sat will shift southeast of the area as
downslope westerly winds take over except in the upslope areas
of the Appalachians. Cdfnt will cross the area late in the day
with rain showers turning into snow showers over the
Appalachians. An inch or two of snow accumulation is possible
over western Grant and Pendleton counties late Sat night.
Breezy Sat night due to tightening pressure gradient between
deep low pressure over Labrador and strong high pressure over
the middle of the country. Winds increase further on Sun due to
better mixing. Anticipating peak gusts will be around 40 mph
(below advy criteria) and temperatures only reaching around 50F
east of the mtns.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will reside overhead on Monday with dry and chilly
conditions persisting. This high will move offshore Monday night,
turning winds southerly and ushering in near seasonal temperatures
to the region. Low pressure will pass north of the Great Lakes,
moving into the New England states on Tuesday. This will drag
another cold front through the area Tuesday night, but the best lift
will reside well north of our area, so expecting a dry passage. High
pressure builds back over the region in its wake, and centers itself
just to our north Wednesday through Thursday night. Dry conditions
and below normal temperatures will win out as a result. Low pressure
across the southeastern U.S. may approach from southwest overnight
Thursday increasing the threat for showers, but model discrepancy
exists in the progression of the low and strength of the high to our
north. Will advertise a dry forecast through Thursday night for now
given the high uncertainty in the above elements.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light showers expected tonight with no flight restrictions.
Breezy Sat with gusts around 20 kt with frontal passage late
Sat. Winds increasing further on Sun with gusts up to 35 kt from
the NW.
VFR conditions expected through at least the first half of next week
as high pressure dominates and light southerly winds prevail. A dry
cold front will cross the terminals Tuesday night and into Wednesday
more, veering winds out of the north northwest in its wake. High
pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions and
continued VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected this afternoon through Sat night, then
gale conditions likely on Sun.
SCA gusts look like a good bet Monday afternoon and into Tuesday as
high pressure shifts offshore and a cold front approaches from the
northwest, and crosses the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. SCA conditions may hold on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
winds remain elevated in the wake of the frontal passage as
northerly breezes take hold as high pressure builds to the
north.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ501-502.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003>006-011-
013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>031-503-
504.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ036>040-
050>057-501-502-505>508.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...BKF/LFR
AVIATION...BKF/LFR
MARINE...BKF/LFR
