Office: SLC
FXUS65 KSLC 032143
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
343 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A broad trough with lingering moisture in the north will
result in another day of isolated to scattered convection for
Friday. Across portions of southern and western Utah, dry and
modestly breezy conditions yield areas of critical fire weather
conditions. High pressure returns from the weekend onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Despite this morning's
shower activity and associated broad cloud shield, environment
seems to be destabilizing in pockets as the day progresses. As
such, seeing isolated convective redevelopment, especially across
southern and eastern portions of the forecast region. Meager bulk
shear (~10-20 kts) appears to be helping limit overall cell
organization, though cores have been pulsey at times yielding
periods of frequent lightning and moderately heavy rainfall. Deep
southwesterly flow associated with PacNW/Great Basin trough is at
least helping lead to decent storm motions, limiting overall
residence times... But, anything that does manage to drift over a
rain sensitive area will be capable of localized flash flooding.
Model guidance continues to show further development as we move
into the evening, so opted to maintain inherited Flash Flood
Potential ratings which carry "Probable" at many area parks.
With the cessation of daytime heating, coverage and strength of
lingering activity will decrease. That said, many CAMs maintain
some isolated to scattered amount of shower coverage across the
northern half of the forecast area (and particularly the
northwest) as an embedded shortwave impulse rounds the base of the
broader trough.
Drier air will begin to work into southern Utah on the 4th of
July, but modest moisture will linger at areas further north
(PWATs ~100- 150% of normal). While the drier and modestly breezy
conditions will result in some areas of critical fire weather
conditions (see fire weather forecast), at areas further north
meager forcing from the broad trough in combination with daytime
heating will lead to convective redevelopment. Coverage once again
appears to remain isolated to scattered in nature, but one change
is it appears the position of the trough will allow for an
increase in bulk shear, especially across the northwest corner of
the state. With the increased shear, a few storms may become
better organized, with these stronger storms posing increased
threat for frequent lightning, periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty erratic outflow winds.
Coverage/strength appears to be maximized mid afternoon to early
evening, with activity starting to decrease more markedly after
around 10 PM or so. Given numerous events/festivities associated
with the Independence Day holiday, those planning or attending
will want to keep an eye on the forecast and how the weather
ultimately evolves through the day. Be prepared to head indoors if
storms are approaching.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 349 AM MDT...High
pressure is expected to quickly build in across the region by
Saturday, continuing into early next week. This pattern will
promote a gradual warming trend, with temperatures climbing well
above seasonal averages through the remainder of the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC... A brief switch to northwesterly winds at the
terminal is currently being observed. While this should hold for
the next couple of hours, flow may occasionally switch back and
forth from northwesterly to southerly before maintaining southerly
around 00z. Additionally, there is a chance of -TSRA from 22-00z
near the terminal. Following the southerlies prevailing around
00z, another round of gusty showers may develop around 04-06z.
Conditions are expected to calm down through the remainder of
tomorrow morning.
.AVIATION...REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... VFR conditions
look to develop across the majority of our sites with the
exception of KSVR which may see isolated thunderstorms until 00z.
Additionally, scattered showers are possible at KSVR from 04-06z
before clearing up. Through the remainder of the evening, VFR
conditions should prevail across all sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage
and strength Thursday evening into the overnight hours, though
some isolated showers will remain possible across the northern
half of Utah or so. Daytime heating will contribute to expanding
convective coverage then late morning on through the day Friday,
though with drier air starting to move in, activity will be more
favored across the northern half of the state. Convection will be
capable of frequent lightning, periods of moderately heavy rain,
and gusty erratic outflow winds anywhere in near enough vicinity.
Further south, especially across portions of Utah's West Desert,
southwest Utah and southern Utah, combination of low RH values and
daytime wind gusts ~30-35 mph will result in areas of critical
fire weather conditions. From the weekend on into the upcoming
week high pressure once again becomes the dominant influence,
yielding dry weather and a warming trend. Day to day wind gusts
appear marginal (generally at or below 25 mph), but low daytime RH
values and poor overnight recoveries will contribute to areas of
locally elevated fire weather conditions.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for UTZ492-495-497-
498.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
