tx discuss
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 151114
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
514 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Friday. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will shift to the
north and northwest after 18Z to 21Z today at the Guymon and
Dalhart TAF sites and then after 21Z today to 00Z Friday at the
Amarillo TAF site.
Schneider
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
SHORT TERM (today and tonight)...
A shortwave trough will remain near or over the Panhandles today and
tonight. A surface trough will push across the forecast area later
today and this evening briefly shifting the winds around to the
north tonight. Highs today should mainly be in the 60s but will be
tempered somewhat by any remaining snowpack. Dry conditions are
expected today and tonight due to lack of appreciable low and mid
level moisture.
Schneider
LONG TERM...
Overall, a quiet forecast is in store across the Panhandles the next
7 days. No major impacts to speak of at this time, and will keep
this discussion short. Most noteworthy items at this time include
the passage of a front Saturday and the chance for some patchy
drizzle behind the front. One impact that could develop would be
if drizzle began early in the day Saturday while temperatures were
below freezing at the surface. This potentially could end up
leading to freezing drizzle which would create hazardous driving
conditions. Forecast soundings do show a moist shallow layer (2-3K
feet AGL) with lift behind the front. Not going to get too fancy
at this point, but decided to place drizzle in the weather element
(no PoPs) across the entire CWA to account for these chances.
Outside of the front (breezy winds) and possible drizzle the
forecast is quiet. Mostly zonal flow through this period. Some
evidence of a shortwave impacting the area next week, but models
begin to diverge from one another early next week.
Temperatures will be in the 60s for highs the next couple days
before the front passes Saturday. These temperatures will be
slightly above normal for this time of year, especially today as
most places should max out in the mid to upper 60s, with the
chance for some 70s to sneak into southeastern parts of the Texas
Panhandle. Saturday behind the front temperatures may vary greatly
across the forecast area, but most places look to be well below
normal for highs in the 30s/40s. Not much recovery is anticipated
Sunday. More seasonable temperatures return early next week.
Guerrero
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
11/24
Office: EWX
FXUS64 KEWX 151125
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
525 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions are expected today through Friday. Winds of 4
to 8 KTS with prevailing S-SW at KSAT/KAUS/KSSF and S-SE at KDRT
during the daytime hours. Winds less than 5 KTs at night.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Light freeze ongoing along and north of the escarpment
and along and north of Highway 71. Temperatures are expected to be
above the freezing mark between 7 and 8 am all areas. High
temperatures reaching the low 60s most locations and mid 60s along
the Rio Grande this afternoon. The reasoning behind this warm up is
due to surface winds turning to the south and southwest ahead of a
mid level short-wave/trough nearly stationary across the Southern
Plains.
Not expecting freezing temperatures across the area with the return
of moisture and southerly winds tonight, however, some places across
the Hill Country could drop to the mid 30s for few hours overnight.
Dry weather continues across the area through Friday with highs in
the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Zonal flow will keep South Central Texas dry through the first part
of the upcoming weekend. By late Saturday into Sunday, an upper level
disturbance is expected to move from the Central Great Basin into the
Southern Plains. This feature will send a cold front across South
Central Texas Sunday for chances for rain across all areas and
especially south of Highway 90 and southern Rio Grande Plains.
Chances for rain continue for most of next week as several short-wave
disturbances move across the area. There is plenty of uncertainty for
the weather pattern for the latter part of the week as another cold
front pushes across South Central Texas on Thursday. Temperatures
behind the cold front should stay well above the freezing mark.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 64 44 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 39 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 40 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 64 39 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 65 39 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 63 40 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 64 38 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 63 40 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 39 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 63 42 67 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 63 40 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...17
Office: BRO
FXUS64 KBRO 151144 AAB
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
544 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue through the TAF period under
clear skies, with calm winds this morning and a light seabreeze
possible this afternoon across coastal counties. Some high clouds
may move across the Rio Grande Valley from west to east later
this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Patchy frost has formed across
portions of Deep South Texas due to enhanced radiational cooling
under clear skies with nearly calm winds. A few locations may dip to
or just below freezing for a relatively short period of time near
sunrise, then quickly rebound by mid morning.
High temperatures top off into the mid and upper 60s for most, with
a few mid and upper valley locations possibly cracking the 70 degree
mark. Overall, a very pleasant day expected with high pressure
firmly in control. An even nicer day is on tap for Friday, with
highs 5-8 degrees warmer than today. A light seabreeze may develop
during afternoon hours today and Friday, mainly across the coastal
counties.
LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): A fairly dry and
zonal 500 mb pattern will prevail over TX Fri Night and Sat. This
will maintain rain free and pleasant conditions into the first
half of the upcoming weekend. Then a pretty strong and elongated 500
mb trough will dig south across the central portion of the lower
48 on Sun and Mon. The approach of this trough axis will push a
cold front down into south TX late Sun/early Mon. As the 500 mb
trough axis moves closer to the TX coastline early next week,
expect for surface coastal troffing to develop along the lower TX
coastline along the old frontal boundary. This coastal troffing
will likely linger on through midweek. This developing coastal
troffing will increase the conv potential starting Sun with the
best rain chcs persisting near the coastline and out over the
lower TX marine areas through Day 7.
The latest WPC QPF amounts indicates a 7 day rainfall total
bullseye of 2 to 4 inch amounts just offshore of the Padre Island
with 1 to 2 inch amounts confined to the eastern coastal counties
of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron.
Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement today in
the handling and timing of the cold frontal passage and the
associated increase of pops. The ECMWF has backed off on its
colder temp solution from yesterday morning trending closer to the
GFS MEX numbers. Will go close to the model blend of the extended
models for both temps and pops.
Overall forecast confidence is above average this morning due to
the better model agreement today.
MARINE (Now through Friday): Light winds and seas will create
favorable marine conditions across all coastal waters through the
short term as high pressure remains firmly in control. Mariners can
expect smooth conditions on the bay, building to a light chop during
the afternoon hours. Gulf of Mexico seas 0 to 60 nautical miles
offshore will generally range 2 feet or less.
Friday Night through Monday Night: Surface ridging over the Gulf
of Mex this weekend will maintain a weaker PGF over the lower TX
coastline maintaining fairly low winds and seas. The approaching
cold front and the expected surface coastal troffing near the RGV
with increase the winds and seas early next week likely pushing
conditions up close to SCA levels on Mon and Mon Night.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
56-Hallman...Short Term/Aviation
60-Speece...Long Term
67-Mejia...Upper Air/Graphicasts
Office: CRP
FXUS64 KCRP 151122 AAA
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
522 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 12z aviation.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours with the
little in the way of cloud cover. Southeast winds have all ready
returned at LRD, but mostly light and variable winds can be
expected at ALI/CRP/VCT through the period.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Quiet weather will continue during the short term across South
Texas. Temperatures this morning are in the middle to upper 30s
inland, and low 40s along the coast. Temps may fall a few more
degrees before sunrise, but widespread freezing temps are not
expected.
A gradual warming trend will occur today into tomorrow. Highs
today will climb into the lower to middle 60s under mostly sunny
skies.
Freezing temperatures are not expected overnight heading into
Friday morning. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s inland
and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.
Further warming is anticipated heading into Friday as onshore flow
resumes. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
No rainfall expected during the short term as drier airmass will
reside over the region.
LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The long term period begins with a continuation of quiet, dry and
warm weather conditions across the area through Saturday, before
moisture steadily increases over the region beginning on Saturday
night. This increase in moisture will provide for shower activity to
develop across the area Saturday night through Sunday. An elongated
upper level trough will move across the Central Plains and send a
surface cold front through South Texas Sunday night into Monday
morning. This front is expected to stall across the waters on Monday
with a coastal trough developing behind the boundary. The
combination of the coastal trough, Gulf moisture and a series of
upper level shortwaves moving eastward across Texas will maintain
rain and thunderstorm chances across the area through at least the
middle of next week. Another cold front is progged to move across
the region on Thursday bringing additional chances for rain, but for
now went conservative on PoPs as there is higher uncertainty during
this time frame, and model solutions are in disagreement.
Overall, rain chances are expected to end from west to east as we
head into the latter part of next week. Holiday travelers are
urged to pay close attention to the forecast for next week as rain
may complicate their scheduled plans for Thanksgiving.
A gradual warming trend will continue over the weekend before
temperatures drop back down on Monday in the wake of the frontal
passage. The cooler temperatures from Monday will be short lived and
the warming trend will resume by mid next week. Cloud cover will
increase across the area through the weekend, and generally cloudy
skies will persist throughout next week.
MARINE...
Winds will be light and variable today over the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters with high pressure nearby. A light onshore flow
will resume on Friday as high pressure slides off to the east. A
weak to moderate onshore flow over the weekend will transition
into a more moderate flow late on Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal
waters on Monday morning and SCEC conditions are expected to
develop across the coastal waters on its wake.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 64 43 70 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
Victoria 62 41 69 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
Laredo 65 42 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
Alice 64 41 71 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Rockport 62 50 68 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cotulla 65 40 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 65 41 71 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 10
Navy Corpus 63 52 69 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
Office: EPZ
FXUS64 KEPZ 151151
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
451 AM MST Thu Nov 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
For today through Saturday, we will see beautiful weather. Our
high temperatures will continue to warm a few degrees each day and
we will see mostly clear skies with light winds. On Sunday and
Monday slightly cooler air will try and push into the region, but
we will continue to stay dry. We will see a slight chance for
precipitation on Wednesday, but Thanksgiving day is looking nice
with clear skies and high temperatures near average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Our quiet weather looks to continue through at least Saturday.
Currently an area of upper level high pressure along the west
coast is giving us a dry northwest flow aloft. This pattern keeps
us dry and usually let us warm a few degrees each day. Today's
highs will be 5 to 7 degrees below average, but by Friday and
Saturday we will see highs just a degree or two below average. On
Sunday and Monday, a weak back door cold front will try and push
across the region. The front will struggle to move in because the
upper level ridge to our west will have weakened and we will see
more of a zonal (west to east) flow. Right now I have cooled
Sunday and Monday's high temperatures around five degrees and I
have bumped the winds up just a little on Sunday. For Tuesday we
will see a short wave ridge dash across the region which will bump
our temperatures back up a few degrees and continue our dry
weather.
Previous runs of the extended models had an approaching upper
level trough moving into the region. The GFS was giving us a
chance for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday and the ECMWF
had the same system, but was keeping us dry. For the current runs
of the extended models, the ECMWF is still keeping us dry and
the GFS has backed off some on its precipitation chances, as it
is now keeping Tuesday dry and just a slight chance for
precipitation on Wednesday. Both models are indicating that
Thanksgiving day will be dry with clear skies as another upper
level ridge moves across New Mexico.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 15/12Z-16/12Z
Another day of VFR conditions. Our high level ceilings of BKN250
will have moved away by the afternoon and we should see unlimited
ceilings through the coming overnight hours. We will see another
day of light and variable surface winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
We will continue to be dry, but winds won't be much of a problem
through Saturday. Upper level high pressure to our west will keep
our skies mostly clear, our precipitation chances near zero, our
winds light and give us a slow warming trend. Min RH's will be in
the teens in the lowlands and near 20% in the mountains through
Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, a weak back door cold front will
try and push across the area. This front will give us some breezy
east winds, especially on the west slopes of area mountains and
we will see our min RH's creep a little higher so that we will
have readings in the 20's and 30's across the area. On Tuesday we
will see our clouds increasing and we will see a slight chance for
lowland rain and high elevation snow showers on Wednesday. Also on
Wednesday our min RH's will also creep a little higher with 30's
and 40's across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 61 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 58 30 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 59 27 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 58 30 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 46 25 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 59 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 57 27 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 60 25 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 61 27 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 60 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 60 30 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 62 31 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 57 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 61 30 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 59 30 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 59 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 58 30 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 60 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 60 26 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 58 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 54 25 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 52 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 50 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 56 25 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 58 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 58 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 58 25 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 63 26 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 60 28 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 57 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 61 25 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 60 24 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 59 27 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 59 27 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Brice
Office: HGX
FXUS64 KHGX 151138
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Overall there are not any aviation concerns the next 24-30 hrs.
High pressure over the region will allow for light winds today and
clear skies. One line TAFs for everyone!
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/...
.DISCUSSION...
Another clear and cool night has brought temperatures below
freezing across Southeast Texas. Most areas north of a Colorado-
Intercontinental-Cleveland line are at or below 30 F, with a few
areas in Wharton, Fort Bend, and Brazoria counties sub-freezing.
No freeze warning is in effect because these are areas that have
already verified temperatures below freezing this season. Expect
to get another 2 to 3 degrees of radiational cooling with clear
skies and calm winds early this morning before we warm up to the
upper-50s today. Surface high pressure will continue to sit over
the Texas coast through Friday, keeping skies clear and allowing a
gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will warm to near seasonal on Saturday with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s.
The high pressure system will slide eastward over the Northern
Gulf this weekend, causing surface winds to veer to southeasterly
by Saturday. This flow will result in moisture slowly returning to
the area as dew points rise from the low 40s to near 60.
Isentropic upglide and slight surface convergence will help
trigger the return of showers Saturday evening through Sunday. An
additional focus for rain on Sunday will be along a weak cold
front approaching Southeast Texas from the northwest. Although
there is lesser confidence in specific timing of the front, Sunday
afternoon and night will have the highest rain chances. There
will not be any sub-freezing temperatures caused by this front.
There is still a large amount with uncertainty for the forecast
late next week. What seems apparent at this time is that a series
of upper level shortwaves will pass through Texas in the Wednesday
to Friday time frame. At the same time, a coastal trough
developing over the Western Gulf early next week and associated
surface boundary will track north to northeastward along the Texas
Coast. The onshore flow will allow PWs to increase above 1.5" by
Thursday morning. The biggest factor that will determine where the
greatest impacts will be seen is the track of that coastal low.
The farther inland it progresses, the more area that will be in
the warm sector, and the placement of the boundary will affect
where the heaviest rainfall is located.
Regardless of the coastal low's track, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected for most of Southeast Texas late next
week. Because this system is still 7 to 8 days out, the timing
will continue to shift between that 2 to 3 day range, if not more.
When a clearer consensus is reached, POPs will be raised,
accordingly. For holiday travel, there could be potentially
hazardous conditions near what is notoriously the worst travel day
in the country. Please continue to keep up with the local
forecast, as well as your location for the holiday, as the
forecast continues to evolve over the next week.
22
.MARINE...Surface high pressure has moved over SE Texas this
morning which has allowed for light northerly winds and subsiding
seas. These conditions should continue today as high pressure
moves east. Southerly winds develop Friday night and increase
Saturday. The next cold front should enter the region on Sunday
and push off the coast Sunday night into Monday morning. This will
cause an increase in northeast winds behind the front possibly
requiring a small craft exercise caution.
Tide levels should continue to recover closer to astronomical levels
over the next couple of days especially for the upper portions of
the bays and Houston Ship Channel.
Overpeck
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 39 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 40 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 51 64 60 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Overpeck
Office: LUB
FXUS64 KLUB 151127
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
527 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.AVIATION...
VFR will continue with relatively light westerly breezes.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Uneventful weather will continue for West Texas over the next
several days or so. Upper flow will turn zonal after a weak short
wave passes overhead today. This disturbance will only bring some
high level clouds to the region with no other significant changes.
Surface lee troughing today and Friday will bump up temperatures
well into the 60s both afternoons. A cold front is poised to move
through the area on Saturday making the temperature forecast tricky.
There are significant differences between the MET and MAV MOS
guidance mostly dependent on the cloud cover. At the moment, it
looks as though low stratus may hold off until the late afternoon
hours making the lowest MOS guidance numbers unrealistic. The
temperatures forecast is more unequivocal for Sunday with much
colder daytime temperatures under the low cloud cover. A very
progressive pattern will persist next week under the zonal flow
leading to several short waves possibly affecting the region.
However, none of these appear to be significant at the moment. The
upper air pattern suggests that arctic air will stay bottled up in
northern and eastern Canada through the next week.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
01/23
Office: MAF
FXUS64 KMAF 151105
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light out of generally the
west to southwest. Scattered to broken high clouds will clear out
by this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Increasingly westerly steering flow will cause temperatures to
warm through Saturday. Skies will be mostly clear through that
period though some high cloud will move across the southern CWA
this afternoon. An upper trough dropping into the Central Rockies
will bring a cold front into the Permian Basin Saturday afternoon
and evening dropping temps 15 to 20 degrees. It appears the front
will be too late to affect highs Saturday except perhaps in
northern/central Lea County and Gaines County, with the bulk of
the colder air arriving Saturday night. Highs Sunday will be in
the 40s/50s with a quick return of zonal flow bringing warmer
weather again early next week. There will be a slight chance for
rain in the lower Trans Pecos along the front but most of the CWA
will be too dry to have any chance for rain. Another trough is due
the middle of next week, unfortunately the models are trending
weaker with it and rain chances do not look favorable at this
time.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 68 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 66 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 67 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 66 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 58 39 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 64 32 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 59 24 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 66 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 65 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 66 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/
Office: SJT
FXUS64 KSJT 151106
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
506 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected for the entire 24 hour TAF period.
Light south winds are forecast across KSJT and KABI with light
and variable winds anticipated at the remaining terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Near freezing temperatures are expected for the start of this
morning. Then, temperatures will rise quickly once sunrise occurs.
High temperatures should reach as high as the mid 60s under sunny
skies and light winds. For tonight, temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees above freezing in the mid to upper 30s.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Continued warmer on Friday under zonal flow aloft and southerly
low level flow. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s and sunny
skies. Lows Friday night are forecast to reach the upper 30s/low
40s.
Before a cold front starts to moves down into the area late
Saturday afternoon, temperatures will likely rise into the upper
60s to around 70 degrees. Confidence in the high temperature
forecast is lower for the Big Country region, as a quicker moving
front (the NAM shows the front moving into that area during the
afternoon) would result in highs perhaps 10 degrees lower than
currently forecast. As the front moves through the region late
Saturday through Sunday morning, some light rainfall/drizzle may
accompany it. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s/low 40s
Saturday night, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s/low 50s (and
mostly cloudy skies) and then overnight lows Sunday night in the
30s.
Very slight warming on Monday (highs in the mid 50s) as winds
start to transition to the southerly direction, then continued
warming on Tuesday with highs in the low 60s.
Models have weakened the short-wave trough that is projected to
move through the region on Wednesday, and only the GFS is showing
some light rain with the trough Wednesday into Thanksgiving, while
the ECMWF is dry. Thus, mainly have just a slight chance of
showers mentioned for that time period. Look for highs slightly
below normal (the low to mid 60s).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 39 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 66 35 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 66 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 66 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 64 39 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 63 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
41
Office: FWD
FXUS64 KFWD 151140
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/
VFR conditions and southwest winds of 5-10 kts will prevail
through the period. Later this afternoon and evening, there should
be a slight increase in high clouds as an upper disturbance
approaches from the west. On Friday morning, a weak cold front
will approach the region from the north and stall near the Red
River. Some fog or low cigs may develop in the vicinity of this
boundary, but am expecting any deteriorating conditions to remain
north of the DFW Metroplex airports.
-Stalley
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 335 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
/Today through Saturday/
The next few days will largely feature benign weather across the
region with a continued warming trend heading into the weekend.
After a cold start this morning with most areas near/below
freezing, temperatures should climb rather quickly thanks to the
return of southwest winds and plenty of sunshine. Highs today will
be 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees
below normal. Flow aloft has become more zonal over the past 24
hours now that an upper low has exited the area towards the
Midwest. However, another shortwave trough is located upstream
over northern Mexico which will be swinging across Texas later
today. With very limited moisture in place, this feature will
pass with little effect on sensible weather other than an
increase in cirrus later today and tonight. This disturbance will
also vaguely aid in dragging a weak surface cold front into the
Southern Plains tonight, but this boundary is expected to stall
near or north of the Red River before daybreak Friday. Just ahead
of the front, some moisture pooling and calm winds could
contribute to the development of patchy fog near the Red River
Friday morning, although this potential is too low to include in
the forecast right now. Lingering high clouds may aid in keeping
temperatures a few degrees warmer than guidance, while also
further limiting the fog potential. Am expecting lows to fall into
the upper 30s and low 40s area-wide.
Friday should be a pleasant day with high temperatures finally
returning to near normal after spending more than a week below
normal. Some modest moisture return will also resume as a low-
level high pressure circulation shifts eastward along the Gulf
Coast. Deeper southerly flow will allow dewpoints to return to the
40s throughout the day while the aforementioned stalled front
quickly lifts northward. A more substantial moisture increase
will occur late Friday and into Saturday as broad troughing
develops over the central CONUS. There should be a gradual
increase in cloud cover throughout the day, but temperatures will
still manage to be near or even slightly above normal thanks to
continued warm advection. Another cold front will be approaching
the area from the north by Saturday afternoon, and should arrive
in the forecast area Saturday evening. This boundary will bring
the next chance for rainfall to the area, as discussed below.
-Stalley
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 335 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/
/Saturday Night Through Thanksgiving Eve/
A couple of mid-level shortwave disturbances will move east over
the Central and Southern Plains Saturday Night, with the stronger
of these across Colorado/Kansas/and Nebraska. The gradual
amplification of the mid-level flow aloft will support a cold
front down the High Plains and into areas along and west of the
I-35 corridor through daybreak Sunday, before exiting the CWA to
the south and east by early Sunday afternoon. Compared to models
24 hours ago, moisture via precipitable water values and
associated instability aloft appear more meager than they did
before. This seems reasonable considering how the Gulf of Mexico
has been well-scoured by recent cold frontal intrusions,
particularly our recent arctic cold front.
Low chances for light showers are forecast across mainly our
eastern counties and where the best modified moisture flux from
the scoured Northwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to occur in
advance of our cold front. Though this airmass is not expected to
be as deep or cold as the most recent passage, low level cold
advection and associated cloud cover will result in much cooler
and brisk conditions Sunday, especially across the north and west.
With an earlier frontal passage, our northwest counties may not
make it out of the mid-upper 40s, while the 50s will prevail
elsewhere. Our far southeast counties "could" creep briefly into
the lower 60s by midday Sunday before the cold front passes
through. A few showers may linger early Sunday evening across our
far southeast counties, though the majority of area should see
dry and brisk conditions continuing Sunday night. Monday morning
lows will crash into the 30s north of I-20 where at least partial
clearing is expected, while lingering cloud cover across Central
Texas will provide some insulation and hold temperatures up into
the lower 40s.
Cool surface high pressure and clouds persisting across south of
I-20/30 keep Monday on the cool side with highs only warming into
the 50s. The split of clouds from mostly clear north and mostly
cloudy south Monday night is expected to continue as Tuesday
morning low temperatures fall into the mid-upper 30s where
radiational cooling is more prevalent versus the low-mid 40s
across Central Texas where a deck of mid-high cloudiness is
expected to persist. It's quite possible that some fog development
could occur along and north of the breakpoint of clouds and where
better radiational cooling occurs, as weak low level warm
advection ensues. At this time, confidence remains to low to
introduce any mention of fog at this time, but it does bear
watching.
Low level southerly flow and warm advection do increase by Tuesday
night with the CWA continuing to be bisected by mid-high cloud
cover south of I-20. Only a slight warm up is expected Tuesday
with highs in the mid-upper 50s, as better low level warm
advection holds off until later Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Tuesday night's lows will continue to be the coolest north of
I-20, but increasing surface dew point temperatures should combine
with the aforementioned lingering cloud cover over Central Texas
to hold low temperatures up in the 40s areawide. Once again, some
fog development may occur, but will wait to see how this plays out
before mentioning the possibility in the forecast.
By Wednesday/Wednesday night(and even into Thanksgiving), rain and
convective chances will be on the increase, as ripples of shortwave
energy within the southern branch of split flow aloft across the
Southern CONUS and move east across the area. With this being a
high impact period for holiday travel both on the ground and in
the air, plenty of coordination was conducted with surrounding
offices. It is pretty evident deterministic models are struggling
with this progressive energy aloft, timing, and moisture
availability regarding rain chances in the far extended. A
conservative approach was preferred with just low-mid range
chances for showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder due to
steepening mid-level lapse rates aloft for Wednesday/Wed night.
Highs Wednesday will remain below normal, but not overly chilly
with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Lows Wednesday night will only
fall into the 40s.
At this time, impacts should remain fairly minimal for our part
of the country. That being said, continue to monitor not only our
forecasts, but for where you may be traveling as well for the
holiday as some parts of the country could be impacted by winter
weather around the Thanksgiving holiday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 43 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 62 40 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 57 38 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 62 40 68 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney 59 40 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 61 44 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 58 39 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 58 40 65 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 62 40 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 66 40 69 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
26/05
