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Office: AMA

FXUS64 KAMA 171105 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
605 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Light winds will pick up out of the south and southeast by mid day
at speeds of 14 to 18 knots with higher gusts. Winds will then
decrease with sunset. Skies are expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

A weak cold front continues to work its way southwest and will
likely make its way through the TX Panhandle by 12Z. In the wake
of the cold front, northeasterly winds will keep conditions cool
throughout the morning. As we go past 18Z, a surface trough will
develop across eastern New Mexico which will shift winds from
northeasterly to southeasterly and southerly. This will advect
some warmer temperatures into the region during the afternoon
hours allowing high temperatures to range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Going into the day on Sunday, a rather potent shortwave trough
will make its way across New Mexico and move into our western
areas during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Along the trough will
be a Pacific surface front moving through and this will shift the
winds to southwesterly and westerly along a steep height gradient
and 850-700 hPa omega gradient and will assist in the strong
winds that would follow from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
across the central and western TX Panhandle. Downstream of the
developing vort max at the base of the mid level trough in-
conjunction with a 110-125 kt. jet streak upstream of the trough
axis providing some good upper level jet dynamics to support a
surface low development. Latest 17/00Z model and probabilistic
data shows some discrepancies of the center of the low pressure
system by Sunday evening ranging from as far north as SW Kansas to
as far south as the NE TX Panhandle from around Waka to Lipscomb.
This will also determine the set up of the sharpest height
gradient south of the center of the low for the strongest westerly
winds which at this time will likely be across the southern TX
Panhandle. Wind products may need to be issued if the high-res
model continue to illustrate these high values. In the northeast
Panhandles, especially areas east of the center of the low, enough
surface based moisture with a deep mixing layer may produce some
scattered showers and storms, with gusty winds being the main
threat going into Sunday evening.

By early Monday morning, a second more potent cold front will move
south from the central Plains across the region. Right along the
front with its proximity to the center of the low will produce
strong winds that will shift from westerly to northerly behind the
cold front. Winds maybe strong enough to warrant some wind
headlines. As the main low pressure system continues to move well
to the east of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon, winds will
eventually diminish along with precip chances across the northern
Panhandles. High temperatures on Monday will drop to below

Going through the remainder of the forecast, conditions across
the region will remain dry with mid level northwesterly and
westerly winds and a series of lee troughs across eastern New
Mexico helping to establish a southerly surface flow. This will
provide warm temperatures above average to the end the forecast


Some elevated conditions across the far western Panhandles as
southerly winds will pick up this afternoon as min RH values will
range between 16-20%.

A Fire Weather Watch continues for the entire Panhandle on
Sunday. Min RH values of 11-15% in-conjunction with 20 ft.
southwest winds of 25-35 kts will provide elevated to critical
fire weather conditions.

Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions are expected to
continue into Monday across the most of the Combined Panhandles.
Fire Weather conditions should diminish as we go into the middle
of next week followed by some chances again as we go toward the
end of the week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.




Office: EWX FXUS64 KEWX 171139 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 639 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/ Wind speeds have been higher than expected plus plenty of mid and high level moisture streaming over the region thus reducing fog coverage this morning. Do expect to see some 4SM-6SM vsbys with fog and even brief periods of light drizzle at the I-35 sites. IFR to MVFR cigs will prevail through 15z-16z then gradually improve to VFR after 18z. Light southerly winds this morning will increase to near 10 knots around 18z. KDRT will see south-west to west winds 10-15 knots with gusts to near 20 knots. Winds will decrease after 01z to 5-10 knots from the south across the east and east winds 5-10 knots at KDRT. MVFR cigs return in the 06z-08z time frame tonight across the east. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... Surface observations over the last few hours show the dryline is beginning to retreat westward across the Hill Country, with dewpoint rises noted at Burnet and Kerrville. To the east of the dryline, we will continue to see some patchy fog through mid-morning. Luckily, it appears winds will remain elevated enough to prevent dense fog from developing. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through mid-morning, then begin to advance eastward across the western Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau through late afternoon. As the dryline advances eastward, a weak shortwave trough in the mid-levels will move across portions of central Texas. This along with daytime heating should be enough to initiate thunderstorm development along the dryline over central Texas. Most of the hi-res models show most storms will develop north of our region during the afternoon hours, so the higher rain chances will be limited to the northern portions of Burnet, Llano and Williamson counties. We can't rule out a strong to possibly severe storm across the mentioned counties, with hail likely being the main severe weather concern. Most activity will be tied closely to daytime heating, so a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated by late evening. Otherwise, look for another day of above normal temperatures with highs generally in the 80s, except near 90 along the Rio Grande. Late tonight into early Sunday morning, the dryline will again retreat westward across most of south central Texas. The dryline will advance eastward during the daytime hours and should manage to reach the I-35 corridor by late afternoon. Given a fairly active southwest flow aloft, we could see thunderstorm development along the dryline, with rain chances generally favored east of I-35. Another warm day is in store on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)... The dryline may briefly move back to the west Sunday evening, but will quickly be overtaken by a Pacific cold front moving in from the west Sunday night into Monday morning. This will shift rain chances to the east of the I-35 corridor for Sunday night, followed by dry weather for all areas on Monday. Temperatures will drop behind the Pacific front on Monday, but given northwesterly downslope, we will keep highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A northern stream cold front will move through Monday night, with temperatures cooling back down closer to climatological normals for Tuesday. Southerly flow in the low-levels quickly develops on Wednesday for a slight nudge upward in moisture levels and daytime highs. The warming trend continues through the remainder of the forecast period with above normal temperatures and dry weather in store for south central Texas. FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across Edwards and Val Verde counties as dry air and increasing southwesterly winds move in behind the dryline. Humidity recovery for western Val Verde county will be limited to 50-60 percent as the dryline remains east of the mentioned area. On Sunday afternoon, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible for areas generally along and west of Highway 281 due to dry air and gusty southwest winds behind the dryline. A Pacific cold front will move through late Sunday night and early Monday morning, with much drier air and increasing northwest winds in store for the region. This may result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions for most of south central Texas on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 86 65 87 58 80 / 20 20 30 - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 65 86 57 81 / 20 20 30 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 65 87 57 82 / 20 20 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 85 62 86 53 78 / 30 20 20 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 61 91 56 82 / - 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 64 86 56 80 / 30 20 30 - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 87 65 89 55 83 / 10 20 20 - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 65 86 57 82 / 20 20 20 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 66 84 60 81 / 20 20 30 30 - San Antonio Intl Airport 86 65 87 59 82 / 20 20 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 65 87 59 83 / 10 20 20 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...10 Synoptic/Grids...24
Office: BRO FXUS64 KBRO 171139 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 639 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest /12Z/ aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Low level humid southerly flow will continue to creating sub- inversion IFR/low MVFR ceilings through mid morning hours before warming sunshine and veering winds above the surface to the west or southwest gradually lift and scour out the ceilings by late morning to early afternoon. One difference from Friday afternoon should be winds, which look to be a hair lighter this afternoon than on Friday with pressure gradient lacking an enhancing stronger southern Plains surface low and instead the more traditional minor Valley Wind Machine situation with fresh sustained winds and gusts holding below 20 knots. As for misty/fuzzy visibility...we haven't really seen restrictions with winds remaining near 10 knots all night, though did at a TEMPO group for MVFR mist (BR) at Harlingen early this morning. Brownsville may be close with ceiling having fallen to LIFR but left out for now as ceiling may bounce up to IFR which would keep visibility from dropping below 6SM. This evening looks to be a carbon copy of Friday evening with mainly clear skies dotted with patchy low MVFR cumulus fractus. GFS soundings and model signals now suggest IFR ceilings arrive around midnight or so and continue through daybreak; added TEMPO for LIFR based on what we've seen early this morning but with winds near 10 knots only dipped visibility to MVFR for now. 52/BSG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): There's plenty of green in our Valley as St. Patrick's Day 2018 brings another muggy morning with plenty of low clouds, followed by increasing afternoon sunshine through somewhat hazy skies as overall airmass is little changed from this time Friday. Zonally flat 500 mb ridge continues over and south of Deep S. Texas/RGV today which maintains weak pressure patterns with a broad but weak surface ridge centered over the eastern Gulf, with the typical lee side of the Sierra Madre trough. Friday's winds kicked up a bit more than expected in the Lower Valley with a few peak gusts over 30 mph, but one difference with today was the passing Southern Plains surface low that probably helped out the gradient a bit. Such a low does not exist today, so expect more of a fresh breeze that will go slack west of US 281 this afternoon. With the warming airmass and abundant afternoon sunshine on Friday, temperatures soared into the upper 80s to lower 90s region wide and expect the same today. Out west, dew points overachieved their "crash" falling into the mid to upper 40s from Zapata through Jim Hogg County. While air mass has modified a bit this morning, models are not handling the drying downslope flow so dropped dewpoints (and hence afternoon humidity) some 5 degrees from prior forecast and in line with latest suite of deterministic guidance (low to mid 50s). The combination of hot temperatures and low humidity will continue to build drought stress, as well the coming bone-dry situation early next week (more on this in the long term discussion) across the Upper Valley/Rio Grande Plains. For tonight, another repeat performance as mostly clear evening quickly turns to low clouds - possibly a bit sooner than early this morning but enough to keep enough breeze to minimize fog potential to patchy at best. Trimmed back fog area to the more typical rural locations where winds will be lighter, and raised temperatures a bit based on current low to mid 70s (330 AM) under the low decks; only the northern tier will drop below 70. On Sunday, the gist of the forecast will remain the same for the populated RGV - with another cloudy muggy start giving way to increasing sunshine by late morning and especially during the afternoon. A slug of very dry air (<25% humidity above 850 mb) arrives across the region during the afternoon, and northwest to west flow also increases especially above 850 mb. This will dry out the atmosphere and could aid a heat "spike" west of US 281 along the Rio Grande and through the Valley ranch areas. For this reason, maintained the slightly higher afternoon temperatures especially out west. Along the northern tier, will be watching some impressive jet dynamics that match up with a 850 mb potential temperature ridge. While deep layer moisture is generally lacking, there's just enough between 1 and 4 PM to possibly kick off or keep any discrete thunderstorm cells through the South Texas Brush Country as soundings are uncapped and quite unstable. Better chances are between Laredo and Corpus (still not all that great). For the beaches: Friday was a preview of the near-perfect "bookend" Spring Break 2018 weekend and today and Sunday won't disappoint. The marine layer will favor the usual afternoon full clearing skies, and lesser gradient and lower seas reduce the longshore current threat to low today. Temperatures should edge up to 80 as well, and UV Index will be the main issue both days, reaching very high levels. LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Very quiet pattern setting up for the region through the next week as the upper level flow continues to deflect weather systems well to the north. The wave passing through Oklahoma will drag a weak front southward into the region Monday morning. This will shift winds to the north and draw in a dry airmass. Couple that with some downsloping, temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s Monday afternoon. North winds will be strongest in the western valley, reaching near 15 mph. This coupled with the very dry conditions will bring the threat for critical fire weather conditions. The surface high continues to build southward Monday night into Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures and clear skies. The surface high is offshore by the end of the day Wednesday, allowing southeast flow to return, drawing Gulf moisture back into the lower levels of the atmosphere. The next induced surface low in the Panhandle Thursday will tighten the gradient considerably, bringing breezy conditions for the latter half of the week. MARINE: Now through Sunday: Seas and winds have come down over the past 24 hours, with both buoys in the 20-60 nm leg below 4 foot seas and 10 to 15 knots overnight. Expect these winds to dip further with the usual diurnal flip-flop, and seas should drop to around 3 feet. Wind waves much less an issue today as swell seems a bit more dominant, so boating/fishing trips are ideal for this time of year. Benign conditions will prevail through Sunday as wind field remain slack resulting in slight to moderate seas. Monday through Wednesday: The next front crosses the northwest Gulf Monday morning. This initial passage will be fairly weak, with north winds remaining around 10 knots. Sea state will remain relaxed during passage, with seas 2 feet or less. The surface high finally builds into the region Tuesday morning, when the main northerly wind surge arrives. Winds will reach 20 knots from dawn through the later afternoon hours before decreasing Tuesday night. This gusty but brief wind surge will bring swells up to 4 to 6 feet for the Gulf. Winds quickly turn easterly Wednesday as the surface high approaches the northern Gulf. Winds will remain 10 to 15 knots, allowing seas to relax down to around 3 feet. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 52/99
Office: CRP FXUS64 KCRP 171616 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .DISCUSSION...Clouds have diminished earlier than expected over the Brush Country late this morning. Modified sky cover grids to reflect this trend into the afternoon. No major changes to the current temperature forecast with a lean toward the BC Consall forecast that is slightly warmer than MOS guidance most places. See Marine section for Marine Dense Fog Advisory. && .MARINE...Web cams continue to show fog limiting visibility along the coast at this time. There has been some improvement near the bays but will let Dense Fog Advisory continue until 18Z. Patchy fog may persist over the near shore waters this afternoon. Expect fog will likely return during the evening hours. Will decide on possible issuance of another advisory with afternoon forecast package. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... See .AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAFs. AVIATION... CIGS and VSBYS (not as bad as previously thought but at least not as MOS was forecasting) will improve during the morning, with VFR conditions by early afternoon all terminals. Winds will back to the southeast late in the afternoon or early evening. No rainfall expected near the terminals today. The main issue is how bad the fog and low clouds will be overnight (MOS being too pessimistic again?). Boundary layer winds are progged to be weaker tonight, and model soundings (including BUFKIT) are showing fog soundings especially KVCT. Thus, am going lower CIGs and VSBYs overnight than what was observed at this time, but not as bad as the MOS is showing. By the end of the terminal forecast, am expecting VSBYS AOB 1SM at KVCT, 2SM at KALI, and 4SM at KCRP. Will only have MVFR CIGS at KLRD. Surface winds will be light and mainly southerly by the end of the terminal forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 66 84 66 90 / 10 10 20 10 10 Victoria 83 67 84 63 84 / 20 10 30 10 10 Laredo 94 67 92 63 87 / 0 10 20 10 10 Alice 90 65 88 63 90 / 10 10 30 10 10 Rockport 80 68 81 65 86 / 10 10 20 10 10 Cotulla 92 66 90 59 85 / 10 20 20 10 10 Kingsville 89 68 89 65 92 / 10 10 30 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 69 83 67 86 / 10 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Office: EPZ FXUS64 KEPZ 170915 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a Pacific low pressure system, with breezy conditions this afternoon. As the system passes by to our north Sunday, it will be windy with some blowing dust though not quite as windy as this past Thursday. Temperatures will drop to about 5 to 7 degrees below normal as well. Monday and Tuesday will remain a little cooler than normal with light winds. A warming trend will take place by midweek next week, with lowland temperatures rising into the lower 80s. Windy conditions will return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... The next upper trough will move into the Great Basin today and establish southwest flow over our area. Lee side surface troughing will develop this afternoon in response and cause the breezes to increase somewhat. Meanwhile mid and high cloudiness should continue within the southwest flow aloft. As the upper trough swings by to the north on Sunday, surface gradients will tighten further and generate windy conditions, near advisory levels but not as strong as Thursday. It will also be cooler so while blowing dust is expected in the usual areas it should not be widespread. Some dynamics could produce a few showers in the Gila region Sunday, but amounts would be light considering the rapid movement of the system and not a great amount of moisture. Things quiet down Monday and Tuesday under dry northwest flow, with minor surface ridging keeping temperatures a little below normal. Then an upper ridge moves in from the west for a warming trend as temperatures return to above normal by Wednesday. We could see at least a couple of days with lowland max temps in the lower 80s. But remember what month it is --- another upper trough will again result in lee side surface troughing and at least low- end windy conditions late next week. At least this pattern is far more predictable than the 2018 edition of March Madness. && .AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...Active springlike weather pattern will maintain dry weather and breezy southwest winds for most terminals through this afternoon. Look for winds to increase and become SW at 230-240/12-20KT G 25KT aft 14Z esp west of continental divide. LGT-OCNL MDT TURBC SFC- 100 aft 18Z. Clouds FEW 040-050 MSL MAINLY S of a LSB-LRU to ALM line. FEW- SCT110-140 BKN-OVC190-210. && .FIRE WEATHER... An active spring like weather pattern with passing systems to our north, will continue our breezy-windy afternoons into early next week. Marginally windy conditions are on tap for the bootheel this afternoon, while windy conditions develop areawide on Sunday as the strongest system moves through. Sustained 20-ft wind speeds 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph Sunday are expected. Slight chances for showers on are also on tap for northern areas at that time, with some afternoon blowing dust also likely for the lowlands. It will remain dry with below normal temperatures expected Sunday-Tuesday, as associated cold frontal passages lower temperatures below normal to start the work week. Lowland highs will fall to the 60s, while mountain readings range from the upper 40s to upper 50s. Temperatures warm back above normal for the remainder of next week, as high pressure aloft temporarily builds over the western states. Winds will be light through at least mid week. Min RH Saturday will range from the teens lowlands to lower 20s mountains. Readings climb 5-10 % Sunday, before falling to the single digits lowlands and middle teens through the mid week. Daytime mixing heights through Monday will range from ~6kft in the mountains, to 10-11 kft lowlands. Very good to excellent ventilation rates are expected over the weekend, with readings falling to fair Monday across the southern reaches of the Sacramento Mtns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 50 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 73 47 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 43 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 44 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 29 41 24 / 0 0 20 0 Truth or Consequences 67 41 59 34 / 0 0 20 0 Silver City 62 34 49 28 / 0 0 20 0 Deming 68 41 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 38 57 32 / 0 0 20 0 West El Paso Metro 71 49 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 73 45 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 76 49 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 45 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 47 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 46 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 70 46 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 42 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 42 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 71 44 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 47 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 62 35 50 29 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 61 34 49 28 / 0 0 20 0 Timberon 59 34 48 27 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 63 33 50 27 / 0 0 20 0 Hillsboro 65 38 55 31 / 0 0 10 0 Spaceport 67 40 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 61 31 47 24 / 0 0 20 0 Hurley 63 34 52 27 / 0 0 20 0 Cliff 63 35 54 27 / 0 0 20 0 Mule Creek 62 36 51 28 / 0 0 20 0 Faywood 64 36 54 29 / 0 0 10 0 Animas 68 38 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 39 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 40 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 66 37 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 01 Fausett
Office: HGX FXUS64 KHGX 171516 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1016 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .DISCUSSION... At 800 AM, a cold front extended from about Texarkana to Abilene to Dalhart with a dryline extending from about Abilene to Del Rio. 12z CRP sounding shows a strongly capped airmass with PW values around 1.4 inches. Convective temps are in the lower 90s with dry air noted in the 900-700 mb layer. At LCH, things look much different. PW values are near 1.35 inches but the airmass is much less capped and convective temps are in the upper 70s. The surface to 850 mb layer is saturated and capping at 850 is much weaker and is breakable with modest heating. 12z ARW and NMM are showing much greater potential for showers and thunderstorms over the extreme eastern part of the CWA for this afternoon. Other than heating, can't really find any impetus for lift. Global models show 500 mb ridging increasing over the CWA this afternoon and a speed max over West Texas will place SE TX in a subsident zone this afternoon. It's hard to go against both the ARW, NMM and HRRR so will raise PoPs for the eastern third of the region for the afternoon and would expect coverage to increase once temperatures warm into the 80's. Will be dropping the Rip Current statement as the Galv Beach Patrol is reporting low to moderate rip current conditions. Web cameras not showing much in the way of fog at this time but conditions remain somewhat favorable for fog and will continue the Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 1 PM. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]... After an initial burst of IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings earlier in the night, the situation has stabilized generally near the MVFR/IFR threshold, as winds have stayed up just enough to largely wipe out any fog and support ceilings rising to around or above 1000 feet. While we may stay here for much of the morning, expect a gradual improvement to VFR at all sites but GLS for the afternoon. But, without a real significant change in environment, think we'll end up more or less back in the same spot tonight. Short range models are in pretty strong agreement in the development of storms far to our west later today. But there is disagreement for any potential impact on our area. At this time, even the most aggressive would require only a VCTS at CLL and UTS late this evening. So, for now, will leave precip mentions out of the TAFs with an eye to more definitively answer this question later today. Luchs PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 424 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/... NEAR TERM [Through Today]... GOES East RGB Nighttime microphysics imagery is winning again as it continues to depict low stratus and fog pushing inland off the Gulf. Northward extent of this cloud cover has reached just south of a Temple to Longview line. Sea fog has filled in most coastal areas along the Upper Texas Coast so marine dense fog advisory is in effect. Surface analysis has a stalled Pacific front over north Texas stretching back to west Texas. Warm sector remains moist with dewpoints in the 60s hence the low clouds and fog development over SE Texas. Water vapor imagery shows a weak short wave trough and jet streak approaching the Big Bend and Trans-Pecos. The evolution of this jet streak will play a big role in convective trends for today. Latest HRRR/WRF-ARW/Tx Tech WRF runs initiate convection over the northern reaches of the Hill Country and push convection east towards central Texas mid/late afternoon. HRRR and WRF-ARW want to bring this convection near Madisonville to Crockett late in the evening. This deserves to be watched but think SPC day 1 outlook has a good handle on the situation with keeping the higher severe weather threat to the north near dryline/front triple point in the NWS Fort Worth CWA. Closer to SE Texas, the atmosphere should be capped with boundary layer flow from the southwest and weak ridging south of where the main jet streak moves into Texas. Capping is tough to diagnose with out a 00Z CRP sounding but 06Z-07Z AMDAR soundings over Houston do show some capping at 850-800mb with temperatures 14-16C in that layer. Most likely we will see the cap hold but dully noting that most short range model soundings show little capping this afternoon. For now will trust the data we have and go with 20 PoPs for today with higher chances tonight for Madison/Houston counties. SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... The combination of two upper level troughs, one over northern California and the other in the Pacific which will cross the Baja will affect Texas on Sunday. Forcing from these troughs will likely help weaken the cap over the area but higher moisture will be pushed east of the region. With little surface forcing, forecast will go with 30-40 PoPs thinking some scattered activity will be possible with the jet streak but cap may be just strong enough to limit activity despite large scale lift. A Pacific front does push through on Monday and there may be a small chance of showers and storms with the front early Monday morning. Otherwise dry conditions are expected for Monday. Given the pattern with west to northwest flow, expect the airmass to be well mixed supporting some adiabatic heating in the process. High temperatures in the mid 80s will be possible and likely have low 80s on Galveston Island with the offshore flow. Dewpoints will mix lower than what models suggest so low RH values will be possible. Fire weather discussion below highlights the fire concern. LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Tuesday the real cold front pushes through with 850mb temperatures falling from 12-16C on Monday to 5-8C on Tuesday. Tuesday will be cooler so have high temperatures in the low 70s. It will be another dry day so will need to watch fire weather concerns but RH values should be higher given high temperatures in the 70s. The coldest morning should be Wednesday morning as high pressure builds over the region for maximum radiational cooling conditions. The end of the week will feature upper level ridging and return flow off the Gulf. There may be a few showers on Friday but too low of confidence to really mention in the forecast. The upper level pattern does become more zonal next weekend so any fronts that approach the area will likely stall. Overpeck MARINE... Light to moderate onshore winds are still expected through the weekend, with warm and moist air moving over relatively cooler water resulting in sea fog on the waters. A dense fog advisory is already in place on Galveston Bay and the adjacent nearshore waters, and have just extended down the coast as visibility degrades there. The potential for sea fog will likely continue through the weekend with only brief periods of improvement in the afternoon, until more lasting relief comes with the cold front Monday. The Galveston Beach Patrol reported strong rip currents yesterday, and with not much change in the environment expected, a Rip Current Statement remains in place today for any residents or Spring Breakers heading to a Gulf-facing beach this weekend. After Monday's front sweeps through the waters, caution flags are likely on Tuesday and a small craft advisory is possible. Improving conditions are expected mid-week as the pressure gradient behind the front relaxes. Potential for a tighter gradient, stronger winds, and higher seas may return towards the end of the work week as another front begins to develop in the Great Plains. Luchs FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday behind a cold front as very warm temperatures will help push minimum relative humidity values below 30 percent across the region and potentially even below 20 percent. Additionally, some breezy northerly winds will become established. Around College Station, winds may briefly approach red flag thresholds in the afternoon. Despite KBDI and ERC values that are relatively low, fine fuels will dry rapidly with these low humidity values and even 100 hour fuels are near or below the 50th percentile. Along with the heat and limited rainfall this weekend, control issues may emerge where fuels are lighter and densely arranged. Low RH and breezy conditions will continue Tuesday, but with cooler temperatures, RH values will not fall nearly as severely, only to 30 to 35 percent. Similarly low minimum RH values are currently forecast for Wednesday, but high pressure moving across the area will result in light winds and be a mitigating factor on that day. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 67 85 60 81 / 20 30 30 20 0 Houston (IAH) 84 68 83 68 84 / 30 20 40 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 69 78 69 82 / 20 20 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$
Office: LUB FXUS64 KLUB 171121 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 621 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .AVIATION... Light winds will prevail this TAF cycle with plenty of mid-upper level cloud cover streaming over from the southwest. VFR will be the rule, though there is a low chance of sub-VFR ceilings developing at KCDS for a brief period toward 12Z Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... 3 am observations show a cold front advancing southwestward across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. This front should make it through the forecast area by mid to late morning before stalling out. Weak easterly upslope flow today will result in cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There should also be quite a bit of high-level cloudiness streaming across the area on into tonight and Sunday morning. The front will begin to wash out this afternoon and evening in the face of increasing southwest flow associated with a shortwave approaching from southwest Texas. Some of the convective-allowing guidance even suggests some weak elevated shower activity accompanying this wave as it quickly lifts northeast through the region late tonight into Sunday morning - but forecast soundings suggest that the lower atmosphere will be too dry for more than a few sprinkles. The main show will be commencing Sunday afternoon with a larger, more vigorous shortwave coming in from the west. This wave will deepen over the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening while a strong jetmax of about 100 kts at 500 mb and 50 to 60 kts at 700 mb overspreads West Texas. As the low-level trough progresses east across the forecast area in the afternoon, these winds will being to transfer down through the very dry and deep mixed layer. The timing of the increase in wind speeds is still a bit uncertain with some of the guidance lagging others by a few hours, but it appears that by late afternoon, strong winds will be quickly spreading out of eastern New Mexico, across the Caprock and on into the Rolling Plains. This will almost certainly produce a period of advisory-level wind speeds, generally sustained at 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph on the Caprock, and slightly lower in the Rolling Plains. There is also a potential for some high winds, both sustained and severe wind gusts. The best locations for this potential will likely be across the western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle, but we will hold off on a High Wind Watch for now given the forecast wind speeds just on the cusp of high wind territory and the uncertainty in the timing. The gusty winds will likely generate some widespread blowing dust across the region. With the core of strongest winds aloft passing across the area late in the day Sunday into Sunday night, it should remain breezy to windy overnight. The winds will gradually shift from west to northwest early Monday and increase again with daytime mixing. A wind advisory will likely be needed on Monday for approximately the eastern 2/3rd of the forecast area. The winds should finally begin to ease up Monday evening as a cold front drops through the area. It will be cooler Tuesday with highs only in the 60s, but at least the winds will be light. Unfortunately, the relative calm will not last long as a progressive weather pattern across the lower 48 steers the next upper trough into the west on Wednesday, while our brief surface ridging is quickly replaced by lee-troughing. This will allow temperatures to warm quickly into the 70s Wednesday, then 80s Thursday, but will also bring increasing southwesterly breezes. it is still uncertain how the upper-level storm system will eject out into the plains late week and into next weekend but all indications suggest it will be dry and breezy for our area. FIRE WEATHER... ..Critical to extremely critical fire danger on Sunday... A cold front moving through the area this morning will bring lighter, northeast winds through the forecast area. By mid to late afternoon, the winds will return to the south-southwest across the western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. Dry and mild conditions across that area will elevate the fire danger and a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for later this afternoon. An extremely critical fire danger is expected to develop across the entire area Sunday afternoon. Strong westerly winds will spread across the area. Some modest moisture advection into the Rolling Plains and even a low chance of a few light sprinkles Sunday morning will not prevent very low RH values by mid-to late afternoon, continuing on well into the night. Coupled with near- historic values of ERC on the Caprock, and around the upper 10 percent in the Rolling Plains, conditions will be very favorable for extreme fire behavior. We have extended the Fire Weather Watch in space and time through the eastern Rolling Plains and until midnight, although gusty winds will continue overnight and RH recovery will be poor. The winds will shift to the northwest Monday as a front passes through. The cooler airmass will still be very dry and elevated to critical fire conditions are expected, with the strongest winds expected across the Rolling Plains and eastern South Plains. The fire danger will improve Tuesday with cooler temperatures and weaker winds behind the front. However, a quick return to breezy and warm conditions will bring increasing fire weather concerns after midweek. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044. && $$ 23/33
Office: MAF FXUS64 KMAF 171553 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1053 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .DISCUSSION... See 18Z Aviation Discussion. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Models continue to forecast a slug of mid/hi cloud moving thru the region overnight, but as soon as this clears, southwest sfc flow will increase and become gusty. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... VFR conditions, with an abundance of mid and high level clouds, are expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to be mainly light and variable through mid to late morning due to an approaching weak cold front. By later this morning and this afternoon, the boundary will push back to the northeast and westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusty are expected. Wind should diminish again by early this evening. 12 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... Strong upper low centered over OR this morning will open up into a trough as it crosses the Great Basin early Sunday and swings across CO/NM late in the day reaching the plains early Monday. This trough will bring very windy conditions to the region Sunday. Upper ridging builds in behind it and continues rest of the week bringing warm wx. Have lots of mid and high clouds over the area this morning... no low clouds as too dry... dewpts in the teens and 20s. Expect today to be similar to yesterday with above normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Models continue to bring a backdoor front briefly into NE Permian Basin today but will be short lived. Sunday looks very windy as a strong shortwave rounds the base of the trough as it swings down across NE NM and the TX Panhandle late in the day. Models develop the strongest 700mb wind Sunday across SE NM and along the NM/TX border at 50kts+ with speeds decreasing to the south so expect highest wind there. This trough will spin up a deep surface low over Eastern CO Sunday with a trough/Pacific front extending down across the eastern part of the area. A tight pressure gradient will add to the wind speeds. MET guidance for GDP over 50kts... with CNM and HOB over 30kts. Expect very high gusts that could approach 90 mph through the Guadalupes and 70 mph for some of the plains. Blowing dust will be possible over much of the region during the afternoon along with increased fire wx dangers addressed below. Already have a High Wind Watch for SE NM and the western part of the region... will continue it for now but confident much if not all of that area will end up as a High Wind Warning. The upper trough will push trough a Pacific front late Sunday with a polar front late Monday. Temps remain warm through Sunday then drop a little Monday and Tuesday before recovering by Wednesday. The end of the week looks warm with widespread 80s. FIRE WEATHER... Will go ahead and issue a Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon for southeast New Mexico south into the Guadalupe Mountains, western and central Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains and Big Bend. RFTI's of mainly 1 with increasing high clouds will be marginal but fuels will be dry to critically dry given ERC-G values in the 50 to 90th percentile. These areas will also coincide with the stronger winds behind the dryline. Overnight recovery is expected to be mainly fair. The likelihood of dangerous fire weather continues to increase for southeast New Mexico and all of west Texas Sunday and Monday. Guidance is in pretty reasonable agreement that a strong upper level storm system will track from the southern Rockies Sunday into the plains Monday. A stout pressure gradient with deep mixing will allow very windy and warm conditions to develop both Sunday and Monday. In addition an impressive surface pressure gradient will continue Sunday night and despite limited mixing poor recovery should keep conditions dangerous overnight. Fuels will be dry to extremely dry both days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 81 54 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 48 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 56 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 82 54 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 43 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 75 45 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 73 44 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 52 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 80 53 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 80 51 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County- Southern Lea County. TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Sunday to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane- Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock- Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos. && $$ 44/29/44
Office: SJT FXUS64 KSJT 171130 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 630 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ No significant changes were necessary this forecast cycle. Models still bring MVFR ceilings to the Brady and Junction terminals, for a few hours this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) ..Low Rain Chances East with Temperatures Above Seasonal Normals... Aside from low rain chances east, look for temperatures to remain above seasonal normals today and tonight. A weak cold front may push into the Big Country this morning and stall near our Interstate 20 corridor. However, Winds from mainly the south will push this front back north this afternoon. Meanwhile, the flow aloft will slowly shift today and come from the southwest. Models continue to indicate some convection could develop, mainly across our eastern counties this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center actually includes Brown county and San Saba county in a marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms. However, models indicate most convection will be east of our counties. Nevertheless, continuing low PoPs for some of our eastern counties, mainly for this afternoon and evening, looks reasonable. Otherwise, highs today will be mainly in the 80 to 85 range. Lows Sunday morning will range mainly from the mid to upper 50s. LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) ..Elevated, possibly critical Fire Weather Sunday into Monday... A strong surface low in the Panhandle/SE Colorado Sunday will move east across northern Oklahoma Monday. Surface trough associated with it will move through Sunday midday, bringing strong gusty southwest winds behind it. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through early afternoon, mainly across Mason, Brown, and San Saba counties. Critical fire weather is possible across Crockett county and western sections of the Concho Valley and Big Country, where the strongest winds are expected. A fire weather watch is in effect late Sunday morning and afternoon for this area. Strong southwest winds will persist Monday night as the surface low moves across N. Oklahoma, with winds shifting the the west and northwest Monday morning. Elevated, possibly critical fire weather potential will continue Monday. Surface high pressure will move in Tuesday, with a return to southerly winds Wednesday as the high pressure moves east. Low level moisture begins to return Thursday and Friday, along with highs in the 80s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 54 84 50 / 20 10 5 0 San Angelo 85 55 87 48 / 10 10 5 0 Junction 85 57 87 48 / 20 20 5 5 Brownwood 84 57 85 49 / 30 20 20 0 Sweetwater 79 53 81 47 / 10 10 5 0 Ozona 84 55 84 48 / 10 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Coke-Crockett-Fisher-Irion-Nolan-Sterling-Tom Green. && $$
Office: FWD FXUS64 KFWD 171205 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 705 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ The main concern over the next 24 hours will be convective potential this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front has moved into North Texas this morning and is currently located just to the south of the Metroplex airports with light north winds being reported. The light northerly flow will persist for another few hours before becoming more easterly later this morning. An extensive area of low clouds and reduced visibility associated with rapid moisture return is spreading north, currently impacting Waco. At this time, the western edge may skirt into DFW/DAL over the next hour or so, but any reductions in ceiling/vis should be short lived as winds just above the surface are out of the southwest. This should keep the lower cigs/vis mainly to the east of the major airports this morning. By this afternoon, a weak surface low should be located near Abilene with a dryline extending south of there. These features along with the weak frontal boundary through the Metroplex should serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon as a mid level disturbance spreads across the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly southwest of the Metroplex around 3-4 pm and will gradually spread east-northeast across the region. We've refined the timing just a tad for the Metroplex with a TEMPO for +TSRA between 6-8 pm. Some modifications to this timing are expected through the late morning and early afternoon. The latest thinking is that the bulk of the activity may stay just to the north of Waco, but we'll continue to monitor this potential as well. Most precipitation should move east of the airports late this evening. There is some potential for additional MVFR cigs to develop late tonight and persist into the morning hours on Sunday. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 357 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ Morning satellite imagery shows an extensive area of low clouds across southeast Texas spreading northward into the region signaling a substantial increase in low level moisture. The latest surface analysis across the region shows quite the range in dewpoints from the low 20s across our western and northern counties to the mid 60s across our southeast counties. In the wake of a strong shortwave trough that moved through the Plains yesterday, a weak cold front is sliding southward and is currently positioned just south of a Bowie to Sherman line. This front will continue to slowly make southward progress and may become a significant player in convective chances later this afternoon. Later today, a strong trough over the western U.S. will continue to dig southward through the Great Basin. Southwesterly flow across northern Mexico into Texas will begin to strengthen as a result. A mid level disturbance embedded in this strengthening flow aloft is expected to move across North Texas this afternoon. As it does, a weak surface low currently over west Texas will spread eastward and should be located in the vicinity of Abilene. A dryline will be draped south of the surface low with the aforementioned cold front still draped across North Texas in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor. Rapid boundary layer moistening will result in much of North Texas being located within a well defined warm moist sector this afternoon with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Most of the area will remain capped initially, but as stronger isentropic ascent spreads northeast through the afternoon, we should see this capping lift or erode completely by 2-4 pm. With low level convergence maximized near the triple point of the weak surface low, dryline, and cold front, thunderstorms should rapidly develop to the southwest of the Metroplex around 3-4 pm. Thermodynamic parameters will be favorable for severe weather with very steep lapse rates in the 800-600 mb layer and surface dewpoints in the mid 60s yielding surface based CAPE around 2000 J/kg late this afternoon. Wind profiles are generally weak in the lowest 2 km although they strengthen considerably above that with 50-60 kt of total deep layer shear. The long straight hodographs suggest that splitting supercells will be possible with mainly a large hail threat as convection spreads east into the evening hours. We'll show PoPs increasing from around 40-50% to the southwest of the Metroplex by mid afternoon to 70-80% by the evening hours and continuing into tonight. Concerning a tornado potential...All of the high resolution guidance is indicating a narrow corridor of strong low level instability that develops from near the I-20 corridor in the Metroplex southward to between Waco and Hillsboro late this afternoon after convection has already developed. Low level instability can sometimes compensate for a lack of stronger low level wind shear, especially when shear aloft is strong. There appears to be a small window late this afternoon and evening, from around 5-8 pm where low level instability becomes maximized, in conjunction with an increase in 925-850 mb winds, as the low level jet begins to strengthen. Surface winds may also be locally backed near the frontal boundary resulting in substantially more curved hodographs and an attendant increase in tornado threat. This threat should diminish after dark with boundary layer cooling and an increase in surface based inhibition. We will continue to monitor this potential through the afternoon. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward tonight with rain chances diminishing from west to east after midnight. The retreating surface frontal boundary should be near the Red River prior to daybreak, and we'll hang on to some PoPs mainly across the northeast into the early morning hours. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 357 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ /Sunday through next Friday/ Convection may be ongoing Sunday morning, most likely north of I-20 and up to the Red River and along and east of the I-35 corridor within a region of very strong isentropic lift. Rather than a continuation of Saturday afternoon and evening's activity, this may be another round of elevated convection altogether forced by the aformentioned warm/moist advection atop a northward-moving warm front. Forecast soundings in this part of our CWA seem to be contaminated to a degree by Saturday's thunderstorms, but steep lapse rates in the 600-850 mb layer and about 30-40 kts of effective deep layer shear may support some elevated supercells with a hail potential into the mid-morning hours. Given the lack of more robust lapse rates, it looks like nickel to perhaps quarter-sized hail (in the strongest storms) would be the main threat with these storms. There may also be a brief window for a bit of backbuilding/training of storms immediately north of the warm front as upwind Corfidi Vectors orient parallel to the surface boundary, but all hi-res guidance indicates this activity will eventually dislodge and move out of the area ahead of the next wave of ascent. Some localized flooding will be possible here into the mid-morning hours. There may be a bit of a lull in convective activity late Sunday morning, although some showers may persist as warm advection continues. The combination of a higher coverage of storms presently anticipated for today (Saturday), combined with a potential for pervasive low cloud cover and showers through the day on Sunday have actually **diminished** forecast confidence regarding convective chances late Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings look pretty worked-over from Saturday's activity along with fairly limited moisture quality/depth in the lowest 1 km, in addition to plentiful dry air in the 700-850 mb layer. All of this would work to diminish the overall severe threat during the afternoon. Model guidance does advect a renewed EML plume overhead during the mid-afternoon, with 700-500 mb lapse rates steepening to around 7-7.5 C/km as a surface dryline begins to mix eastward towards the I-35 corridor. That said, whether storms can even initiate (and subsequently sustain themselves) in an environment characterized by /1/ Increasing capping as the aformentioned renewed EML plume arrives, /2/ dwindling moisture in the 700-850 mb layer, and /3/ a delayed onset of the more robust height falls until very late Sunday evening cast a great deal of uncertainty onto the Sunday afternoon-evening forecast. Since a handful of the extended hi-res guidance still convect during the afternoon (most notably the HRRRx), we'll keep likely PoPs painted east of I-35/35E, tapering down to chance (30-50%) along and west of I-35 during this timeframe. Depending on the thermodynamic situation during this period, the kinematic parameter space would obviously be supportive of supercells with very strong mid- and upper-level flow present overhead. Thus, a highly conditional risk for strong to severe storms still exists, primarily along and east of I-35 with a large hail and damaging wind threat. The tornado potential, while low, is nonzero, especially the farther north of I-20 and east of I-35 you go where surface winds will be a bit more backed. The Pacific front will quickly overtake the dryline late Sunday evening and overnight as an occluding surface low barrels right along the Oklahoma/Kansas border. While none of the coarse- resolution model guidance is convecting along the Pacific front, I'm wondering if a narrow line of additional showers and thunderstorms may develop during this period as the best forcing for ascent of the day overspreads the area, coincident with steepening 600-850 mb lapse rates. I've introduced some low (20-30%) PoPs across parts of the forecast area to account for this potential. Northwesterly winds and building high pressure will bring an end to any precipitation chances by early Monday morning. ...Fire Weather Potential Sunday afternoon and Monday... As the aformentioned dryline mixes eastward Sunday afternoon, locations to the west of a roughly Bowie to Mineral Wells to Lampasas line will see their relative humdities drop below 30 percent, and even into the teens across parts of Eastland, Stephens, and Young counties. As this occurs, west to southwest winds of around 15 to 20 mph are expected to develop. With little in the way of rainfall here, an elevated or critical fire weather threat could materialize. We've elected to hold off on a Fire Weather Watch for the time being, but one may be warranted today or tonight if model trends continue. Very dry air along with strong and gusty northwest winds will envelop all of the region on Monday in the post-frontal airmass. Even with some cold advection, temperatures should still manage to warm into the 70s to near 80 degrees across Central Texas. The one fly in the ointment here may be the potential for some post- frontal stratus mainly near the Red River, which could impact temperatures and humidity values. However, with afternoon relative humidity values expected to fall well below 30 percent (teens across our western counties), another Critical Fire Weather potential exists. The eastward extent of this threat will depend on where the heaviest rainfall falls this weekend, but another Fire Weather Watch may be necessary, especially west of I-35 where the lowest rainfall amounts are anticipated. Dry and tranquil weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty south winds will return on Thursday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. Some showers may be possible under a strengthening capping inversion Thursday and Friday, but this potential is too low to warrant mentionable PoPs at this time. Shower and storm chances could return next weekend, however, as another dryline/cold front approach the area. Carlaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 59 82 55 75 / 30 70 40 20 0 Waco 81 63 83 54 80 / 80 60 40 20 0 Paris 80 58 73 53 73 / 10 70 70 30 5 Denton 81 56 81 53 75 / 20 40 40 20 0 McKinney 80 58 78 54 73 / 20 60 50 30 0 Dallas 82 61 81 57 77 / 30 70 40 20 0 Terrell 82 60 79 54 77 / 20 80 60 30 0 Corsicana 85 63 81 54 79 / 40 70 60 30 0 Temple 85 64 85 54 80 / 60 30 30 20 0 Mineral Wells 82 56 85 52 76 / 40 30 30 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$