Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

tx discuss


Office: AMA

FXUS64 KAMA 151114
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
514 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Friday. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will shift to the
north and northwest after 18Z to 21Z today at the Guymon and
Dalhart TAF sites and then after 21Z today to 00Z Friday at the
Amarillo TAF site.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/

SHORT TERM (today and tonight)...

A shortwave trough will remain near or over the Panhandles today and
tonight. A surface trough will push across the forecast area later
today and this evening briefly shifting the winds around to the
north tonight. Highs today should mainly be in the 60s but will be
tempered somewhat by any remaining snowpack. Dry conditions are
expected today and tonight due to lack of appreciable low and mid
level moisture.

Schneider

LONG TERM...

Overall, a quiet forecast is in store across the Panhandles the next
7 days. No major impacts to speak of at this time, and will keep
this discussion short. Most noteworthy items at this time include
the passage of a front Saturday and the chance for some patchy
drizzle behind the front. One impact that could develop would be
if drizzle began early in the day Saturday while temperatures were
below freezing at the surface. This potentially could end up
leading to freezing drizzle which would create hazardous driving
conditions. Forecast soundings do show a moist shallow layer (2-3K
feet AGL) with lift behind the front. Not going to get too fancy
at this point, but decided to place drizzle in the weather element
(no PoPs) across the entire CWA to account for these chances.
Outside of the front (breezy winds) and possible drizzle the
forecast is quiet. Mostly zonal flow through this period. Some
evidence of a shortwave impacting the area next week, but models
begin to diverge from one another early next week.

Temperatures will be in the 60s for highs the next couple days
before the front passes Saturday. These temperatures will be
slightly above normal for this time of year, especially today as
most places should max out in the mid to upper 60s, with the
chance for some 70s to sneak into southeastern parts of the Texas
Panhandle. Saturday behind the front temperatures may vary greatly
across the forecast area, but most places look to be well below
normal for highs in the 30s/40s. Not much recovery is anticipated
Sunday. More seasonable temperatures return early next week.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/24



Office: EWX FXUS64 KEWX 151125 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 525 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .AVIATION... VFR flying conditions are expected today through Friday. Winds of 4 to 8 KTS with prevailing S-SW at KSAT/KAUS/KSSF and S-SE at KDRT during the daytime hours. Winds less than 5 KTs at night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... Light freeze ongoing along and north of the escarpment and along and north of Highway 71. Temperatures are expected to be above the freezing mark between 7 and 8 am all areas. High temperatures reaching the low 60s most locations and mid 60s along the Rio Grande this afternoon. The reasoning behind this warm up is due to surface winds turning to the south and southwest ahead of a mid level short-wave/trough nearly stationary across the Southern Plains. Not expecting freezing temperatures across the area with the return of moisture and southerly winds tonight, however, some places across the Hill Country could drop to the mid 30s for few hours overnight. Dry weather continues across the area through Friday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Zonal flow will keep South Central Texas dry through the first part of the upcoming weekend. By late Saturday into Sunday, an upper level disturbance is expected to move from the Central Great Basin into the Southern Plains. This feature will send a cold front across South Central Texas Sunday for chances for rain across all areas and especially south of Highway 90 and southern Rio Grande Plains. Chances for rain continue for most of next week as several short-wave disturbances move across the area. There is plenty of uncertainty for the weather pattern for the latter part of the week as another cold front pushes across South Central Texas on Thursday. Temperatures behind the cold front should stay well above the freezing mark. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 44 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 39 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 40 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 39 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 39 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 40 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 38 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 63 40 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 39 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 42 67 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 63 40 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...04 Short-Term/Long-Term...17
Office: BRO FXUS64 KBRO 151144 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 544 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue through the TAF period under clear skies, with calm winds this morning and a light seabreeze possible this afternoon across coastal counties. Some high clouds may move across the Rio Grande Valley from west to east later this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Patchy frost has formed across portions of Deep South Texas due to enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies with nearly calm winds. A few locations may dip to or just below freezing for a relatively short period of time near sunrise, then quickly rebound by mid morning. High temperatures top off into the mid and upper 60s for most, with a few mid and upper valley locations possibly cracking the 70 degree mark. Overall, a very pleasant day expected with high pressure firmly in control. An even nicer day is on tap for Friday, with highs 5-8 degrees warmer than today. A light seabreeze may develop during afternoon hours today and Friday, mainly across the coastal counties. LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): A fairly dry and zonal 500 mb pattern will prevail over TX Fri Night and Sat. This will maintain rain free and pleasant conditions into the first half of the upcoming weekend. Then a pretty strong and elongated 500 mb trough will dig south across the central portion of the lower 48 on Sun and Mon. The approach of this trough axis will push a cold front down into south TX late Sun/early Mon. As the 500 mb trough axis moves closer to the TX coastline early next week, expect for surface coastal troffing to develop along the lower TX coastline along the old frontal boundary. This coastal troffing will likely linger on through midweek. This developing coastal troffing will increase the conv potential starting Sun with the best rain chcs persisting near the coastline and out over the lower TX marine areas through Day 7. The latest WPC QPF amounts indicates a 7 day rainfall total bullseye of 2 to 4 inch amounts just offshore of the Padre Island with 1 to 2 inch amounts confined to the eastern coastal counties of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron. Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement today in the handling and timing of the cold frontal passage and the associated increase of pops. The ECMWF has backed off on its colder temp solution from yesterday morning trending closer to the GFS MEX numbers. Will go close to the model blend of the extended models for both temps and pops. Overall forecast confidence is above average this morning due to the better model agreement today. MARINE (Now through Friday): Light winds and seas will create favorable marine conditions across all coastal waters through the short term as high pressure remains firmly in control. Mariners can expect smooth conditions on the bay, building to a light chop during the afternoon hours. Gulf of Mexico seas 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore will generally range 2 feet or less. Friday Night through Monday Night: Surface ridging over the Gulf of Mex this weekend will maintain a weaker PGF over the lower TX coastline maintaining fairly low winds and seas. The approaching cold front and the expected surface coastal troffing near the RGV with increase the winds and seas early next week likely pushing conditions up close to SCA levels on Mon and Mon Night. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 56-Hallman...Short Term/Aviation 60-Speece...Long Term 67-Mejia...Upper Air/Graphicasts
Office: CRP FXUS64 KCRP 151122 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 522 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated for 12z aviation. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours with the little in the way of cloud cover. Southeast winds have all ready returned at LRD, but mostly light and variable winds can be expected at ALI/CRP/VCT through the period. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... Quiet weather will continue during the short term across South Texas. Temperatures this morning are in the middle to upper 30s inland, and low 40s along the coast. Temps may fall a few more degrees before sunrise, but widespread freezing temps are not expected. A gradual warming trend will occur today into tomorrow. Highs today will climb into the lower to middle 60s under mostly sunny skies. Freezing temperatures are not expected overnight heading into Friday morning. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. Further warming is anticipated heading into Friday as onshore flow resumes. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. No rainfall expected during the short term as drier airmass will reside over the region. LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... The long term period begins with a continuation of quiet, dry and warm weather conditions across the area through Saturday, before moisture steadily increases over the region beginning on Saturday night. This increase in moisture will provide for shower activity to develop across the area Saturday night through Sunday. An elongated upper level trough will move across the Central Plains and send a surface cold front through South Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. This front is expected to stall across the waters on Monday with a coastal trough developing behind the boundary. The combination of the coastal trough, Gulf moisture and a series of upper level shortwaves moving eastward across Texas will maintain rain and thunderstorm chances across the area through at least the middle of next week. Another cold front is progged to move across the region on Thursday bringing additional chances for rain, but for now went conservative on PoPs as there is higher uncertainty during this time frame, and model solutions are in disagreement. Overall, rain chances are expected to end from west to east as we head into the latter part of next week. Holiday travelers are urged to pay close attention to the forecast for next week as rain may complicate their scheduled plans for Thanksgiving. A gradual warming trend will continue over the weekend before temperatures drop back down on Monday in the wake of the frontal passage. The cooler temperatures from Monday will be short lived and the warming trend will resume by mid next week. Cloud cover will increase across the area through the weekend, and generally cloudy skies will persist throughout next week. MARINE... Winds will be light and variable today over the Middle Texas Coastal Waters with high pressure nearby. A light onshore flow will resume on Friday as high pressure slides off to the east. A weak to moderate onshore flow over the weekend will transition into a more moderate flow late on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters on Monday morning and SCEC conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters on its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 64 43 70 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Victoria 62 41 69 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Laredo 65 42 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 Alice 64 41 71 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Rockport 62 50 68 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 65 40 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 65 41 71 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 63 52 69 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TB/78...AVIATION
Office: EPZ FXUS64 KEPZ 151151 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 451 AM MST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... For today through Saturday, we will see beautiful weather. Our high temperatures will continue to warm a few degrees each day and we will see mostly clear skies with light winds. On Sunday and Monday slightly cooler air will try and push into the region, but we will continue to stay dry. We will see a slight chance for precipitation on Wednesday, but Thanksgiving day is looking nice with clear skies and high temperatures near average. && .DISCUSSION... Our quiet weather looks to continue through at least Saturday. Currently an area of upper level high pressure along the west coast is giving us a dry northwest flow aloft. This pattern keeps us dry and usually let us warm a few degrees each day. Today's highs will be 5 to 7 degrees below average, but by Friday and Saturday we will see highs just a degree or two below average. On Sunday and Monday, a weak back door cold front will try and push across the region. The front will struggle to move in because the upper level ridge to our west will have weakened and we will see more of a zonal (west to east) flow. Right now I have cooled Sunday and Monday's high temperatures around five degrees and I have bumped the winds up just a little on Sunday. For Tuesday we will see a short wave ridge dash across the region which will bump our temperatures back up a few degrees and continue our dry weather. Previous runs of the extended models had an approaching upper level trough moving into the region. The GFS was giving us a chance for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday and the ECMWF had the same system, but was keeping us dry. For the current runs of the extended models, the ECMWF is still keeping us dry and the GFS has backed off some on its precipitation chances, as it is now keeping Tuesday dry and just a slight chance for precipitation on Wednesday. Both models are indicating that Thanksgiving day will be dry with clear skies as another upper level ridge moves across New Mexico. && .AVIATION...Valid 15/12Z-16/12Z Another day of VFR conditions. Our high level ceilings of BKN250 will have moved away by the afternoon and we should see unlimited ceilings through the coming overnight hours. We will see another day of light and variable surface winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... We will continue to be dry, but winds won't be much of a problem through Saturday. Upper level high pressure to our west will keep our skies mostly clear, our precipitation chances near zero, our winds light and give us a slow warming trend. Min RH's will be in the teens in the lowlands and near 20% in the mountains through Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, a weak back door cold front will try and push across the area. This front will give us some breezy east winds, especially on the west slopes of area mountains and we will see our min RH's creep a little higher so that we will have readings in the 20's and 30's across the area. On Tuesday we will see our clouds increasing and we will see a slight chance for lowland rain and high elevation snow showers on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday our min RH's will also creep a little higher with 30's and 40's across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 30 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 27 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 30 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 25 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 57 27 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 60 25 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 27 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 30 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 31 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 30 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 30 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 30 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 60 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 26 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 25 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 52 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 50 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 56 25 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 58 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 58 25 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 63 26 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 28 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 25 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 60 24 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 27 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 27 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ Brice
Office: HGX FXUS64 KHGX 151138 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 538 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]... Overall there are not any aviation concerns the next 24-30 hrs. High pressure over the region will allow for light winds today and clear skies. One line TAFs for everyone! 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/... .DISCUSSION... Another clear and cool night has brought temperatures below freezing across Southeast Texas. Most areas north of a Colorado- Intercontinental-Cleveland line are at or below 30 F, with a few areas in Wharton, Fort Bend, and Brazoria counties sub-freezing. No freeze warning is in effect because these are areas that have already verified temperatures below freezing this season. Expect to get another 2 to 3 degrees of radiational cooling with clear skies and calm winds early this morning before we warm up to the upper-50s today. Surface high pressure will continue to sit over the Texas coast through Friday, keeping skies clear and allowing a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will warm to near seasonal on Saturday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The high pressure system will slide eastward over the Northern Gulf this weekend, causing surface winds to veer to southeasterly by Saturday. This flow will result in moisture slowly returning to the area as dew points rise from the low 40s to near 60. Isentropic upglide and slight surface convergence will help trigger the return of showers Saturday evening through Sunday. An additional focus for rain on Sunday will be along a weak cold front approaching Southeast Texas from the northwest. Although there is lesser confidence in specific timing of the front, Sunday afternoon and night will have the highest rain chances. There will not be any sub-freezing temperatures caused by this front. There is still a large amount with uncertainty for the forecast late next week. What seems apparent at this time is that a series of upper level shortwaves will pass through Texas in the Wednesday to Friday time frame. At the same time, a coastal trough developing over the Western Gulf early next week and associated surface boundary will track north to northeastward along the Texas Coast. The onshore flow will allow PWs to increase above 1.5" by Thursday morning. The biggest factor that will determine where the greatest impacts will be seen is the track of that coastal low. The farther inland it progresses, the more area that will be in the warm sector, and the placement of the boundary will affect where the heaviest rainfall is located. Regardless of the coastal low's track, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for most of Southeast Texas late next week. Because this system is still 7 to 8 days out, the timing will continue to shift between that 2 to 3 day range, if not more. When a clearer consensus is reached, POPs will be raised, accordingly. For holiday travel, there could be potentially hazardous conditions near what is notoriously the worst travel day in the country. Please continue to keep up with the local forecast, as well as your location for the holiday, as the forecast continues to evolve over the next week. 22 .MARINE...Surface high pressure has moved over SE Texas this morning which has allowed for light northerly winds and subsiding seas. These conditions should continue today as high pressure moves east. Southerly winds develop Friday night and increase Saturday. The next cold front should enter the region on Sunday and push off the coast Sunday night into Monday morning. This will cause an increase in northeast winds behind the front possibly requiring a small craft exercise caution. Tide levels should continue to recover closer to astronomical levels over the next couple of days especially for the upper portions of the bays and Houston Ship Channel. Overpeck && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 39 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 57 40 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 51 64 60 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Overpeck
Office: LUB FXUS64 KLUB 151127 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 527 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .AVIATION... VFR will continue with relatively light westerly breezes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ DISCUSSION... Uneventful weather will continue for West Texas over the next several days or so. Upper flow will turn zonal after a weak short wave passes overhead today. This disturbance will only bring some high level clouds to the region with no other significant changes. Surface lee troughing today and Friday will bump up temperatures well into the 60s both afternoons. A cold front is poised to move through the area on Saturday making the temperature forecast tricky. There are significant differences between the MET and MAV MOS guidance mostly dependent on the cloud cover. At the moment, it looks as though low stratus may hold off until the late afternoon hours making the lowest MOS guidance numbers unrealistic. The temperatures forecast is more unequivocal for Sunday with much colder daytime temperatures under the low cloud cover. A very progressive pattern will persist next week under the zonal flow leading to several short waves possibly affecting the region. However, none of these appear to be significant at the moment. The upper air pattern suggests that arctic air will stay bottled up in northern and eastern Canada through the next week. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 01/23
Office: MAF FXUS64 KMAF 151105 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 505 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .DISCUSSION... See 12z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light out of generally the west to southwest. Scattered to broken high clouds will clear out by this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ DISCUSSION... Increasingly westerly steering flow will cause temperatures to warm through Saturday. Skies will be mostly clear through that period though some high cloud will move across the southern CWA this afternoon. An upper trough dropping into the Central Rockies will bring a cold front into the Permian Basin Saturday afternoon and evening dropping temps 15 to 20 degrees. It appears the front will be too late to affect highs Saturday except perhaps in northern/central Lea County and Gaines County, with the bulk of the colder air arriving Saturday night. Highs Sunday will be in the 40s/50s with a quick return of zonal flow bringing warmer weather again early next week. There will be a slight chance for rain in the lower Trans Pecos along the front but most of the CWA will be too dry to have any chance for rain. Another trough is due the middle of next week, unfortunately the models are trending weaker with it and rain chances do not look favorable at this time. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 66 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 67 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 58 39 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 32 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 59 24 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 66 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 65 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 66 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/
Office: SJT FXUS64 KSJT 151106 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 506 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected for the entire 24 hour TAF period. Light south winds are forecast across KSJT and KABI with light and variable winds anticipated at the remaining terminals. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Near freezing temperatures are expected for the start of this morning. Then, temperatures will rise quickly once sunrise occurs. High temperatures should reach as high as the mid 60s under sunny skies and light winds. For tonight, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Continued warmer on Friday under zonal flow aloft and southerly low level flow. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s and sunny skies. Lows Friday night are forecast to reach the upper 30s/low 40s. Before a cold front starts to moves down into the area late Saturday afternoon, temperatures will likely rise into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Confidence in the high temperature forecast is lower for the Big Country region, as a quicker moving front (the NAM shows the front moving into that area during the afternoon) would result in highs perhaps 10 degrees lower than currently forecast. As the front moves through the region late Saturday through Sunday morning, some light rainfall/drizzle may accompany it. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s/low 40s Saturday night, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s/low 50s (and mostly cloudy skies) and then overnight lows Sunday night in the 30s. Very slight warming on Monday (highs in the mid 50s) as winds start to transition to the southerly direction, then continued warming on Tuesday with highs in the low 60s. Models have weakened the short-wave trough that is projected to move through the region on Wednesday, and only the GFS is showing some light rain with the trough Wednesday into Thanksgiving, while the ECMWF is dry. Thus, mainly have just a slight chance of showers mentioned for that time period. Look for highs slightly below normal (the low to mid 60s). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 39 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 66 35 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 66 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 66 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 64 39 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 63 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 41
Office: FWD FXUS64 KFWD 151140 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 .AVIATION... /12z TAFs/ VFR conditions and southwest winds of 5-10 kts will prevail through the period. Later this afternoon and evening, there should be a slight increase in high clouds as an upper disturbance approaches from the west. On Friday morning, a weak cold front will approach the region from the north and stall near the Red River. Some fog or low cigs may develop in the vicinity of this boundary, but am expecting any deteriorating conditions to remain north of the DFW Metroplex airports. -Stalley && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 335 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ /Today through Saturday/ The next few days will largely feature benign weather across the region with a continued warming trend heading into the weekend. After a cold start this morning with most areas near/below freezing, temperatures should climb rather quickly thanks to the return of southwest winds and plenty of sunshine. Highs today will be 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees below normal. Flow aloft has become more zonal over the past 24 hours now that an upper low has exited the area towards the Midwest. However, another shortwave trough is located upstream over northern Mexico which will be swinging across Texas later today. With very limited moisture in place, this feature will pass with little effect on sensible weather other than an increase in cirrus later today and tonight. This disturbance will also vaguely aid in dragging a weak surface cold front into the Southern Plains tonight, but this boundary is expected to stall near or north of the Red River before daybreak Friday. Just ahead of the front, some moisture pooling and calm winds could contribute to the development of patchy fog near the Red River Friday morning, although this potential is too low to include in the forecast right now. Lingering high clouds may aid in keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than guidance, while also further limiting the fog potential. Am expecting lows to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s area-wide. Friday should be a pleasant day with high temperatures finally returning to near normal after spending more than a week below normal. Some modest moisture return will also resume as a low- level high pressure circulation shifts eastward along the Gulf Coast. Deeper southerly flow will allow dewpoints to return to the 40s throughout the day while the aforementioned stalled front quickly lifts northward. A more substantial moisture increase will occur late Friday and into Saturday as broad troughing develops over the central CONUS. There should be a gradual increase in cloud cover throughout the day, but temperatures will still manage to be near or even slightly above normal thanks to continued warm advection. Another cold front will be approaching the area from the north by Saturday afternoon, and should arrive in the forecast area Saturday evening. This boundary will bring the next chance for rainfall to the area, as discussed below. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 335 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ /Saturday Night Through Thanksgiving Eve/ A couple of mid-level shortwave disturbances will move east over the Central and Southern Plains Saturday Night, with the stronger of these across Colorado/Kansas/and Nebraska. The gradual amplification of the mid-level flow aloft will support a cold front down the High Plains and into areas along and west of the I-35 corridor through daybreak Sunday, before exiting the CWA to the south and east by early Sunday afternoon. Compared to models 24 hours ago, moisture via precipitable water values and associated instability aloft appear more meager than they did before. This seems reasonable considering how the Gulf of Mexico has been well-scoured by recent cold frontal intrusions, particularly our recent arctic cold front. Low chances for light showers are forecast across mainly our eastern counties and where the best modified moisture flux from the scoured Northwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to occur in advance of our cold front. Though this airmass is not expected to be as deep or cold as the most recent passage, low level cold advection and associated cloud cover will result in much cooler and brisk conditions Sunday, especially across the north and west. With an earlier frontal passage, our northwest counties may not make it out of the mid-upper 40s, while the 50s will prevail elsewhere. Our far southeast counties "could" creep briefly into the lower 60s by midday Sunday before the cold front passes through. A few showers may linger early Sunday evening across our far southeast counties, though the majority of area should see dry and brisk conditions continuing Sunday night. Monday morning lows will crash into the 30s north of I-20 where at least partial clearing is expected, while lingering cloud cover across Central Texas will provide some insulation and hold temperatures up into the lower 40s. Cool surface high pressure and clouds persisting across south of I-20/30 keep Monday on the cool side with highs only warming into the 50s. The split of clouds from mostly clear north and mostly cloudy south Monday night is expected to continue as Tuesday morning low temperatures fall into the mid-upper 30s where radiational cooling is more prevalent versus the low-mid 40s across Central Texas where a deck of mid-high cloudiness is expected to persist. It's quite possible that some fog development could occur along and north of the breakpoint of clouds and where better radiational cooling occurs, as weak low level warm advection ensues. At this time, confidence remains to low to introduce any mention of fog at this time, but it does bear watching. Low level southerly flow and warm advection do increase by Tuesday night with the CWA continuing to be bisected by mid-high cloud cover south of I-20. Only a slight warm up is expected Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 50s, as better low level warm advection holds off until later Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Tuesday night's lows will continue to be the coolest north of I-20, but increasing surface dew point temperatures should combine with the aforementioned lingering cloud cover over Central Texas to hold low temperatures up in the 40s areawide. Once again, some fog development may occur, but will wait to see how this plays out before mentioning the possibility in the forecast. By Wednesday/Wednesday night(and even into Thanksgiving), rain and convective chances will be on the increase, as ripples of shortwave energy within the southern branch of split flow aloft across the Southern CONUS and move east across the area. With this being a high impact period for holiday travel both on the ground and in the air, plenty of coordination was conducted with surrounding offices. It is pretty evident deterministic models are struggling with this progressive energy aloft, timing, and moisture availability regarding rain chances in the far extended. A conservative approach was preferred with just low-mid range chances for showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder due to steepening mid-level lapse rates aloft for Wednesday/Wed night. Highs Wednesday will remain below normal, but not overly chilly with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Lows Wednesday night will only fall into the 40s. At this time, impacts should remain fairly minimal for our part of the country. That being said, continue to monitor not only our forecasts, but for where you may be traveling as well for the holiday as some parts of the country could be impacted by winter weather around the Thanksgiving holiday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 43 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 62 40 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 57 38 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 62 40 68 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 59 40 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 61 44 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 58 39 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 58 40 65 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 62 40 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 66 40 69 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/05