tx discuss
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 141100
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions are expected through 12Z Wednesday at all three TAF
sites. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the Guymon TAF site
between 12Z and 18Z today with possible MVFR conditions and
erratic winds, otherwise no showers and thunderstorms are expected
at the Dalhart and Amarillo TAF sites. Variable, mainly south and
southwest winds, 5 to 10 knots or less at the Guymon and Dalhart
TAF sites will become north and northeast after 16Z to 18Z today.
South and southwest winds 5 to 15 knots at the Amarillo TAF site
will become east and northeast after 22Z today to 00Z Wednesday.
Schneider
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
DISCUSSION...
To sum up the highlights for the week ahead...rain chances nearly
every period and temperatures near to slightly above normal for this
time of year. Wednesday looks like the best chance overall for the
Panhandles regarding rain chances in the near term. Highs will
generally be in the mid-80s to mid-90s through the next week.
Widespread severe weather appears to be unlikely this week, but
localized strong to marginally severe weather (45-55mph winds and
upwards of nickel size hail) will be possible in some instances.
Upper level closed low was a little more stubborn than previously
forecasted, and its exit has been delayed until tonight for the most
part. Should get absorb into the main flow tonight across northern
portions of the CONUS which will ultimately put us in northwest flow
aloft. In the meantime, as we transition to northwest flow, storms
may linger around today through tonight across mainly central to
eastern portions of the Panhandles. Sometime tonight we will see a
lull in precipitation chances until they return Wednesday afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected tonight/tonight.
Another closed low appears to form tonight on the lee side of the
Rockies across eastern Montana/Wyoming. This could very well cause a
small perturbation to form south within the northwest flow Wednesday
into Wednesday night. This energy will be the focus for our next
round of precipitation chances starting tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Given the northwest flow, storms may very well form in
eastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado and move east to southeast
across the Panhandles starting late afternoon or early evening
Wednesday. Again, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Rain chances essentially continue through the rest of the week.
Without getting into too much detail, northwest flow will
generally be featured in the upper levels which tends to give us
precipitation chances off the mountains. Details will be refined
for Thursday onward soon, but generally widespread severe weather
does not appear likely at this time. These patterns can be
difficult to pinpoint exact timing and coverage of rainfall, but
generally most areas could see at least some chance for rainfall
over the next several days.
Guerrero
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
11/24
Office: EWX
FXUS64 KEWX 140829
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
329 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The upper level low has moved up over Kansas and the flow has
weakened over Texas as the subtropical ridge has started to build
back in from the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure has moved back
in from the east with winds across our CWA from the southeast. The
upper level subtropical ridge will continue to build back over Texas
during this period. This will suppress convection from east to west.
Today there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
over Val Verde County, but the rest of the area will be dry. By
tonight all rain chances will have moved out of our CWA.
Temperatures will begin to climb back up to the middle 90s across
most of the region today and tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The upper level subtropical ridge will dominate the pattern through
the rest of the week over Texas. This will keep the forecast dry for
our entire CWA. Temperatures will creep up a degree or two each day
until the weekend when they should plateau in the middle to upper
90s. Sunday an upper level trough will begin to move down from the
central plains. This feature will continue to dig southward Monday
and begin to weaken the ridge over Texas. This will allow a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms in our northwestern counties and
may also allow some seabreeze convection to move into our
southeastern area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 95 76 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 76 96 75 98 / 10 - 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 75 96 75 98 / 10 - 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 92 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 93 77 95 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 95 76 96 76 99 / - 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 96 74 97 74 99 / - 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 95 76 97 75 98 / 10 - 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 76 96 77 98 / 10 - 10 - 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 94 76 96 76 98 / 10 - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 97 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...05
Office: BRO
FXUS64 KBRO 141041 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
541 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Very few changes made to the previous issuance of
TAFs. VFR will prevail today as surface winds rapidly increase to
breezy levels. Tonight, VFR should persist as winds diminish and
a few clouds hang around.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure will be
centered over the coastlines of Louisiana and east Texas and
extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the
forecast period. This synoptic pattern will produce dry weather
across the inland portions of the BRO CWFA with only isolated
showers over the adjacent coastal waters. Meanwhile, high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico will interact with thermal low pressure
within inland Mexico, producing a breezy to windy onshore flow and
exacerbating well above normal daytime high and overnight low
temperatures.
LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500 mb ridging will
be strengthening over the RGV and the TX coastline around midweek
and will hold in place through Thurs and Thurs Night maintaining
stable conditions over the region. The ridge axis will then start
retreating west allowing for overall weakness in the 500 mb
pattern to form up along the TX coastline. Meanwhile, a strong 500
mb short wave will dig southeast over the central portion of the
country pushing into the mid Miss River Valley. This will help
maintain the overall weakness in the 500 mb pattern over TX and
the western Gulf of Mex through the weekend and next Mon. The
deeper layer moisture levels will remain pretty limited through
next Mon despite the breakdown of the ridge axis over the region.
Some sea breeze effects and daytime heating could fire some isold
conv later this week into the weekend. But do not see any reason
to boost up the pops into chc category at this time.
The breakdown in the 500 mb ridging may allow for the afternoon
high temps to drop down a few degrees. However, daytime heating
will not likely be limited too much by the persistent sunshine. So
will go close to the slightly warmer ECMWF high temps.
MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42019 reported winds around 18
knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas of 3 feet with a period
of 6 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Broad high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to interact more intensely with thermal low
pressure over inland Mexico during the forecast period. Breezy winds
and moderate seas are anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast, with
Small Craft Exercise Caution likely for at least portions of the
coastal waters today through Wednesday.
Wednesday Night through Saturday Night: Surface ridging extending
west from the Atlantic Ocean across the Gulf of Mex will maintain
light to moderate SE low level winds across the lower TX Bay and
Gulf waters into the weekend. Do not expect the wind strength to
reach into SCA criteria for either the Bay or Gulf waters through
Sat.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Office: CRP
FXUS64 KCRP 140845
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
345 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Upper level ridging will build back in over South Texas today as
upper trough to continues to move northward across the Plains.
This will bring mostly dry conditions to the region today. The
exception may be over the Gulf Waters and northern Coastal Bend
and Victoria Crossroads as moisture begins to return. Isolated
showers and storms may be possible over these areas and will keep
20 pops in the forecast. Otherwise, very warm and humid conditions
will exist today across South Texas. Highs will eclipse 100
degrees over the Rio Grande Plains with middle 90s from the
Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads. Elevated heat index
values between 105 and 109 degrees will be common across parts of
South Texas and will issue a SPS to address this.
It will be another mild night across South Texas under partly
cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 70s. Some isolated
streamers may develop after midnight and then approach the coast
during the morning.
Overall pattern does not change much heading into Wednesday as hot
and humid conditions continue. Temperatures will be similar to
today along with dangerous heat index values between 105 and 109
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Models continue to prog mid level high pressure to build across S TX
Wed night/Thu bringing dry/subsident mid level air to the area. As a
result, moisture is progged to be limited, thus only have silent 5-
10 pops for Thu. Max temps are also expected to be a degree or two
warmer Thu with lows Thu night a tad cooler. Moisture is progged to
remain limited Fri and Sat despite weakness developing aloft. By
Sun/Mon, sufficient moisture should be in place to combine with the
weak trough aloft to produce isolated convection over the waters and
across the VCT Crossroads. However, most locations will remain rain
free. Afternoon heat indices ranging from 105-109 can be expected to
persist through the extended. Mod onshore flow can also be expected
at times through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 94 78 94 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 95 76 96 76 97 / 20 10 10 10 10
Laredo 103 78 102 78 103 / 10 0 10 10 10
Alice 97 76 98 76 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 91 82 91 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 10
Cotulla 99 76 100 76 100 / 10 0 10 10 10
Kingsville 96 77 97 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 92 82 92 81 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
Office: EPZ
FXUS64 KEPZ 132042
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
242 PM MDT Mon Aug 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air over the Borderland again this evening will keep storm
chances quite low for most locations. The exception will be far
southwestern New Mexico to include the Gila and Bootheel areas
where isolated storms are expected. Tuesday will begin a slight
moisture increase, and thus a few more storms. However with high
pressure building back toward the area, temperatures will also be
on the rise. Mid-week and beyond moisture levels increase further
to give all areas chances at daily afternoon and evening storms
into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A quite convoluted flow pattern exists across the U.S. currently.
Central U.S. ridge extending into the Gulf of Mexico with an
embedded upper low over W. TX. This pattern is nothing like the
typical monsoon pattern for the SW, so the moisture availability
over the SW has been haphazard thus far this year. We are in a
short period of moisture absence today and Tuesday as drier
continental flow has pushed out moist to the S and E. Thus minimal
storm activity today and again Tuesday with the far western zones
favored today, and the mountains favored Tuesday. There should be
very limited activity over the lowlands for the next 48 hrs.
As the upper low slowly lifts out of west Texas, an upper high
spills in from the NW and centers across TX and NM. This flow
pattern change should allow some increased moisture to move in
from the south, but it appears that plume will focus over our SW
zones and over AZ with increase capping aloft over our N and E
zones. Thus, with this transition, we are likely to see increased
storms over our western and southwestern zones, but probably stay
dry over our E lowland zones.
Thursday and Friday a pair of passing troughs to our north will
help reduce the impact of the upper ridge and allow the moisture
plume to slowly shift east back over our area. This will help to
spread the moisture more evenly across our CWFA and give more
uniform precip chances across the area through Saturday. The
current GFS and ECMWF model runs both bring a drier NW flow into
the region Sunday to squelch a lot of the storm activity for a
drier outlook to end the week.
14-Bird
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 14/00Z-15/00Z...
VFR conditions through period. High pressure aloft will limit TSRA
to mainly mountain areas between 00Z-04Z and again between 18z-
24Z. Skies will be FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200. Winds generally
west to southwest at 5 to 15KTS. Wind gusts to 40KTS also possible
near storms.
04-Lundeen
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm development to
mainly mountain areas this afternoon through Tuesday. A moderate
surge of moisture will increase chances for thunderstorms area wide,
starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through next weekend.
Day time temperatures will be few degrees above normal the next
through the period. Minimum relative humidity values will stay above
20 percent most areas with moderate overnight recoveries. Vent
rates will range from good to very good.
04-Lundeen
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 72 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 65 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 68 95 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 68 94 70 92 / 0 0 20 20
Cloudcroft 53 73 55 71 / 20 30 30 40
Truth or Consequences 68 94 70 93 / 0 20 20 20
Silver City 61 88 61 84 / 20 30 30 30
Deming 66 95 68 94 / 0 0 10 0
Lordsburg 67 93 68 91 / 20 20 20 20
West El Paso Metro 72 97 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 67 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Hancock 68 97 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 66 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 68 97 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 70 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 68 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 67 96 69 94 / 0 0 10 0
Hatch 67 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 68 96 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 69 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
Mayhill 57 81 59 80 / 20 30 30 40
Mescalero 59 82 59 80 / 20 30 30 40
Timberon 57 80 59 79 / 20 30 30 40
Winston 59 87 59 84 / 10 30 30 40
Hillsboro 64 92 65 90 / 10 30 30 30
Spaceport 67 95 69 93 / 0 0 20 10
Lake Roberts 57 87 58 82 / 20 30 30 40
Hurley 63 89 63 87 / 20 30 30 20
Cliff 62 92 63 89 / 20 30 30 40
Mule Creek 63 89 65 87 / 30 40 30 30
Faywood 64 90 65 88 / 10 30 30 20
Animas 67 94 68 90 / 20 20 30 20
Hachita 66 94 67 91 / 10 0 20 20
Antelope Wells 65 91 66 86 / 10 0 20 30
Cloverdale 61 87 64 83 / 20 20 30 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
14/04
Office: HGX
FXUS64 KHGX 140843
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...
An onshore flow will continue for the remainder of the week
and on through the weekend with moisture levels mostly on
the low side. With weak high pressure aloft, do not see much
in the way of rain (models have generally come in a little
drier) so will carry no more than 10%-20% POPs through
Thursday and will raise them only into a 20%-30%ish range
Friday and on through the weekend. Better rain chances are
expected to come back next week as mid/upper level ridging
moves off to the west and troughing in the central/eastern
states allows a cold front to possibly drag toward our area
and become a focus for activity. Until these better rain
chances come, look for temperatures to remain around normal
mid-August readings. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Typical summertime pattern w/ light to moderate onshore flow will
persist through the period. Speeds may approach caution criteria
offshore tonight from roughly 10pm-4am, otherwise no significant
forecast concerns. 47
&&
AVIATION...
Will be mostly keeping the trends advertised in the 6z TAFs for the
12z issuance. Satellite imagery is showing some patchy low
cloudiness starting to develop across portions of the area. This
cloudiness will probably expand in coverage and MVFR ceilings may be
observed at times until mid morning...then lift back into VFR
territory. Similar pattern is expected tonight. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Office: LUB
FXUS64 KLUB 140845
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Cyclonic NW flow in the wake of a departing upper low in western
OK had teamed with a modest southerly LLJ in supporting two axes
of thunderstorms as of 3 AM. The first axis of storms was rapidly
diminishing across Yoakum and Cochran Counties, with a more
prominent area of storms focusing from Dalhart southeast to Tulia.
Given ample 850 mb moisture advection per SPC's RAP mesoanalysis
and around 700 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, this latter area of
convection should maintain its composure through daybreak as it
pushes into the eastern South Plains and especially the northern
and central Rolling Plains. This activity should quickly wane as the
LLJ decays after 8 AM or so.
Another round of isolated to scattered storms appears likely
later this afternoon across the region as a surface trough sinks
out of the Panhandle and encounters modest instability with
negligible capping. PoPs remain highest in our NE zones this
afternoon under the sharpest cyclonic flow and cooler 700 mb
temps near the low. Although convective models generally agree in
this activity faltering tonight, a second area of precip could
gain steam across eastern NM within ENE upslope flow north of the
surface trough. NW steering flow could once again push some of
these storms into our NW zones after midnight.
500 mb heights are progged to rise about 20 meters on Wednesday
as upper ridging expands eastward from NM. Although this process
will temper convective prospects, the presence of the remnant
surface trough over the region and backing winds to a SE/upslope
component could give rise to very spotty afternoon storms mainly
on the Caprock. A better focus for storms looks to unfold overnight
in the Panhandle and our northern zones as a ripple in W-NW flow
teams with the nocturnal LLJ. This theme should play out in a
similar fashion Thursday night and again on Friday night, but
there isn't much hope of storms surviving south of about Highway
70 given a stubborn ridge axis loitering over most of the South
Plains.
Rain chances finally look to gain more headway this weekend as a
northern Rockies trough digs over much of the Great Plains and
finally knocks the upper ridge axis south of the region. The GFS
and ECMWF are now in good agreement with cyclonic NW flow
deepening over our domain by late Saturday and Sunday complete
with a cold front arriving o/a Sunday night. Broad PoPs will be
maintained for now this weekend favoring the overnight periods.
Otherwise, after high temps bounce back into the upper 90s in the
coming days, a welcome return to cooler temps looks in order next
week under deep and generally drier northerly flow. The GFS looks
too optimistic in trapping moisture over the region behind the
front, so Superblend's bullish PoPs have been reduced markedly
for Mon and Tue.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
93
Office: MAF
FXUS64 KMAF 141051
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail today and tonight, except for a brief period of
MVFR fog at KMAF until perhaps 14/13Z. KHOB and KFST could be
affected by thunderstorms this afternoon after 14/20Z, but
probability is too low at this time to include TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
In the wake of the departing low, which is now located near the
Kansas/Oklahoma state line per latest water vapor imagery, drier
and warmer conditions are on tap for Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas today. Early this morning, weakening showers and
thunderstorms are drifting southward through the Panhandle/South
Plains, with this activity expected to largely dissipate before
reaching the Permian Basin. With high pressure building from the
west, and the low continuing to exit to the northeast, additional
storms may develop this afternoon over eastern New Mexico/the
Caprock, and drift southward into northern Lea county late this
afternoon. A better chance for storms exists across the higher
terrain, particularly from the Davis Mountains southward into the
Big Bend Area this afternoon into this evening, where locally
heavy rainfall could result in flooding concerns, especially in
areas that received recent precipitation. Elsewhere, dry
conditions are expected today, with the most noticeable change
being a return to near and just above normal temperatures in the
upper 80s to upper 90s.
Gradually warmer conditions are expected Wednesday through the end
of the week, as ridging continues to build over the region. Above
normal temperatures in the middle to upper 90s are expected for
most, with lower 100s possible for portions of the Pecos and Rio
Grande Valleys, and upper 80s across the higher terrain. The ridge
will mitigate rain chances for most through Friday, though a few
storms remain possible, mainly across the Big Bend Area and the
higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to the
Davis/Apache Mountains. By the start of the weekend, the upper
ridge will weaken over the area, as a trough drops southeastward
from the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures look to stay warm through
the weekend, though rain chances will increase across the west
beginning Friday night/Saturday, and expanding areawide Saturday
night onward. Guidance indicates a stronger low developing over
the Northern Plains early next week, which could send a strong
cold front southward through the area in the Monday/Tuesday time
frame, resulting in continued precipitation chances and a return
to below normal temperatures. Stay tuned.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 94 73 96 74 / 10 10 10 0
Carlsbad 97 70 98 71 / 10 10 10 10
Dryden 92 72 97 75 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Stockton 95 70 96 71 / 10 10 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 90 69 90 68 / 20 10 10 10
Hobbs 94 68 94 69 / 10 10 10 10
Marfa 88 61 88 62 / 20 10 20 10
Midland Intl Airport 95 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 95 72 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
Wink 98 72 98 74 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
67/84
Office: SJT
FXUS64 KSJT 140900
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A few light showers have redeveloped overnight across the eastern
Big Country, and also to the southeast of the area. We can not rule
out a few stray showers across the northeast this morning, so we
kept a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast for today. We
could see patchy light fog by sunrise with light winds and high
boundary layer humidity, but it should not last long, as winds pick
up speed by mid-morning. The upper low over Kansas and Oklahoma
will weaken and head to the northeast today, allowing high pressure
to build back in to west Texas. Temperatures will start to recover,
with highs heading back toward the lower 90s. Rain tonight should
stay to the north of the area, with overnight lows in the lower
70s.
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
...Quiet weather returns through the week with rain chances
returning by the weekend...
After seeing multiple days of widespread heavy rainfall across the
area, we will transition back to a dry and warm pattern across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be right a seasonal normals
for much of the upcoming week. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the weekend and into the early part of next week
ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
The upper level trough will move east and upper level ridging
settle in across the western Texas. Expect a quiet stretch of
weather from Wednesday through Saturday. Winds will be out of the
south to southeast between 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon
hours. Much of the area will see mostly sunny skies and
temperatures near seasonal normals. Highs will be in the low to
mid 90s, Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will climb into
the mid to upper 90s on Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 70s. A weak surface trough will develop on Saturday
and some isolated showers and thunder storms will be possible
across the far western portions of the area Saturday night.
(Sunday through next Tuesday)
A developing low pressure system will move into the central plains
and drag a cold front south across the southern plains. Both
models agree on the position of the low pressure system, but
differ on the speed of the cold front. Decided to take a blend of
both model outputs and bring the cold front into the northern Big
Country on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the area on Sunday. As the front approaches the area, rain
and thunderstorm chances could increase in coverage by the start
of next week. Currently carrying 20% POPS from day 5 through 7
across much of the area. Temperatures will hold steady in the low
to mid 90s. As cloud coverage increases, temperatures could dip
back into the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 73 95 73 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 92 72 94 72 / 5 5 5 5
Junction 91 73 94 73 / 10 5 5 5
Brownwood 89 72 94 73 / 20 5 5 5
Sweetwater 89 74 94 73 / 5 5 5 5
Ozona 87 71 92 71 / 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
08/40
Office: FWD
FXUS64 KFWD 140845
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
Satellite imagery shows the the upper low responsible for the
past several days of rain currently lifting northeast across
Kansas. A zone of upper diffluence in advance of the system
continues to generate a persistent area of showers and
thunderstorms from the Red River region northeastward through
eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
were confined to the Red River counties during the overnight
hours, but we are already seeing an increase in activity farther
south as we move through the early morning hours due to enhanced
ascent associated with a 35KT low level jet. Likely POPs will
remain along the Red River this morning with chance POPs extending
south to the I-20 corridor. Coverage should be lower than the
past several mornings due to more veered low level flow and the
fact that the strongest lift has shifted northeast.
A few spots will probably deal with nuisance street flooding from
the DFW Metroplex northward. The Red River counties will have the
highest potential for receiving locally heavy rainfall and will
be monitored for localized flash flooding potential. Precipitation
will end from southwest to northeast this afternoon, with the
exception of the immediate Red River counties where redevelopment
will be possible during the peak heating hours. The potential for
redevelopment farther south this afternoon appears unlikely as the
upper level low continues to shift north and east, along with the
lift associated with the system.
The temperature forecast will once again have a north-south
gradient with highs in the 80s across the north and 90s across the
south. A few showers will be possible overnight across the far
north, but most areas that have been experiencing overnight rains
will finally receive a break as forcing for ascent shifts north
and east of the area.
30
&&
.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Early Next Week/
The upper low will transition into an open shortwave and move
eastward across the Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday.
This will allow a ridge to spread in from the west and deliver
subsidence and a return to typical Summer weather for mid to late
week. High temperatures in the mid and upper 90s coupled with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will yield heat indices in the 102-105
range for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor from
Wednesday through the weekend. There will be some low-end
opportunities for storms across the far northeast counties during
this period, where northwest flow may allow a few thunderstorm
complexes to skirt the area.
Better chances for precipitation will return early next week as
an unseasonably strong upper trough swings east across the Plains
and sends a cold front southward into the area. Pops have been
increased for the late Monday-Tuesday timeframe, but still remain
below guidance because of model uncertainty this far in advance.
Both the GFS and ECMWF have consistently indicated the development
of the upper trough and the arrival of the front, but have shown
run to run changes regarding the timing and strength of both. A
weaker system would only bring a slight chance of rain, while a
stronger one would bring better chances and a break from the heat,
so it will be something to watch as we move through the week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1128 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018/
/06Z TAFs/
Very little change from 00z TAFs sans some minor adjustments on
MVFR timing from near daybreak Tuesday through mid morning.
Otherwise, public update discussion below describes the remaining
convective chances overnight and cause.
Will keep VCSH/-RA wording for the overnight through mid-late
morning periods, or until the nocturnal, low level jet and
associated jet wane through the post daybreak hours. VFR cigs with
a 2-4 hours period of MVFR cigs will remain possible due to a cool
and moist boundary layer overhead. DFW Metro airports are still
recovering from outflow wash from earlier storms, but are now
veering gradually more east or east-southeast 5-7 knots are
environmental surface pressures take over. All sites will see
winds veer southerly and increase to 15 knots by mid morning
Tuesday, then become gusty at times to around 20 knots by midday
and after, before setting down to around 10 knots by nightfall
Tuesday evening.
Otherwise, Waco Regional will see similar cig trends but only
with MVFR cigs arriving earlier by 10z-11z Tuesday and becoming
VFR again by 15z. South winds around 10 knots will increase to
15-20 knots by late morning and after Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 76 94 78 97 / 30 10 5 10 5
Waco 93 76 95 76 97 / 10 10 5 5 5
Paris 86 74 93 74 95 / 40 20 20 20 20
Denton 86 75 94 77 97 / 50 10 10 20 10
McKinney 86 75 94 76 97 / 40 10 10 20 10
Dallas 88 77 95 79 97 / 30 10 5 10 5
Terrell 89 76 93 77 95 / 20 10 5 10 5
Corsicana 92 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 5 10 5
Temple 93 75 95 75 97 / 10 10 5 5 5
Mineral Wells 88 73 95 74 96 / 30 10 5 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
30/25
