tx discuss
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 232347
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Cold front has moved through the area, and with the surface low to
the south, we can expect some return easterly flow tonight with low
clouds and possibly some drizzle in some areas. Given the upper
trough passage over the Great Lakes area, we can expect cooler air
aloft to linger over the low cloud deck, setting up a pretty strong
low level inversion for tonight and again tomorrow. The main focus
for the next couple of nights is how much low level moisture return
we will get, and the depth of the moisture. As long as the moisture
return stays below the top of the inversion, we'll just have low
clouds and drizzle, but should moisture reach the top of the
inversion, there will be about 2000-3000 J/kg of uncapped CAPE
available leading to elevated severe storms. This is very
conditional for tonight and confidence is not high enough, as most
models suggest that the moisture will not be ample enough. The main
concern for the moisture tonight will be across the eastern
Panhandles. Tomorrow night we can expect more expansive low level
moisture across the Panhandles and cooler air aloft will still be
lingering. This will certainly be a repeat setup, if the cap can be
broken for overnight elevated severe weather and the primary threat
would be hail. Overall confidence is low (about 20 to 30 percent)
in the overnight thunderstorms will occur tonight and/or tomorrow,
but should storms trigger, they will likely be severe.
Given the likely cloud cover all day tomorrow, highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s would certainly be possible. Most guidance is
trying to break out some of these clouds for at least a period of
time to warm us up into the 70s, but not sure that's how things will
play out. Highs will be blended cooler, but confidence is still low
on how they will play out.
Upper level trough will approach the Panhandle on Thursday with a
pretty stout dryline setup, most likely at the Amarillo to Guymon
line. Assuming no overnight convection occurs, then the atmosphere
east of the dryline will be primed for severe storms, most likely
discrete supercells capable of all hazards. Along and west of the
dryline, there appears to be enough moisture and instability to get
some high based storms, where gusty winds and dry lightning would be
the main threat. Given the ample shear, high CAPE and overall forcing
associated with this severe threat, hail up to baseballs (2.75"),
and wind gusts up to 70 mph look to be reasonable, as well as very
high 0-1 and 0-3km SRH values would support the potential for
isolated strong tornadoes.
West of the dryline we can expect elevated to critical Fire Weather
conditions as drier and warmer air will be in place. As the system
pushes through Thursday night into Friday we can expect clearing
skies, lighter winds, and temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Have stuck with the NBM values for the forecast through the
extended period. With Fri and Sat seeing above average
temperatures in the 80s, then a weak frontal boundary on Sun
dropping daytime temps back in upper 60s to 70s. The weather may
be somewhat quiet over the weekend depending on the position of a
dryline on Sat. If the dryline retreats back west some
shower/thunderstorms may be possible primarily across the eastern
combined Panhandles.
Going into Fri an H5 closed low will have pushed off to the north
northeast with a dryline exiting the Panhandles in the late AM
hours. As the dryline exits the area, SW surface winds in the 20
to 30 mph range with dry air at the surface continuing to overtake
the combined Panhandles. This will bring the potential for some
elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions. At the
same time a subsequent low pressure will be digging south over
the western CONUS. This low is expected to become closed at H5
over the Four Corners Region by Sat afternoon. This low is progged
to bring an H5 jet maxima around 80 kts over the FA Sat
afternoon and potentially bring some lift to the area to help
with storms. However, this will all depend on the dryline
retreating back into the area with the return of low level
moisture. The NBM has brought some slight chance PoPs back into
the eastern most counties in the FA Sat afternoon/evening. The NBM
has also brought in slight chance PoPs across portions of the OK
Panhandle with higher PoPs across western KS into eastern CO. This
will all depend on the track of the H5 low bringing wrap around
moisture into the area. The GFS and EC keep the OK Panhandle dry
with a more northerly track of the low. Again, on Sat southwest
winds in the 20 to 30 mph range and RH values dropping to lower to
mid teens in the west may pose an elevated to critical fire
weather day, especially for areas that are not seeing greenup in
the vegetation.
Sunday, a weak cold front is progged to bring northerly winds
with slightly cooler temps for the afternoon. Even potentially
some overnight lows in the upper 30s for the northwestern third of
the combined Panhandles going into Mon morning. Mon afternoon
temps are progged to return back into the lower 80s.
36
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, expect low level moisture to increase tonight
across the area courtesy of low level easterly upslope flow. This
translates to the development of MVFR cigs at KDHT and KAMA towards
sunrise Wednesday. These MVFR cigs are forecast to persist through
Wednesday morning before lifting to the VFR category Wednesday
afternoon. KGUY should remain in the VFR category through late
Wednesday afternoon at this time. Some patchy drizzle may develop
Wednesday morning, but low confidence exists as to if, where, and
when any drizzle might develop so have opted to omit from this
forecast cycle.
02
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 50 69 54 85 / 10 10 20 20
Beaver OK 46 66 48 85 / 20 20 30 40
Boise City OK 43 68 49 85 / 10 10 10 10
Borger TX 51 72 55 89 / 20 10 20 30
Boys Ranch TX 50 74 53 89 / 10 10 20 10
Canyon TX 50 72 54 86 / 10 10 20 10
Clarendon TX 52 66 54 82 / 10 20 20 30
Dalhart TX 44 71 49 85 / 10 10 0 10
Guymon OK 44 66 48 86 / 20 10 20 20
Hereford TX 50 75 55 87 / 10 10 10 10
Lipscomb TX 49 66 51 82 / 20 20 30 40
Pampa TX 51 66 53 82 / 20 10 20 30
Shamrock TX 52 65 53 80 / 20 20 20 40
Wellington TX 54 67 55 80 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...02
Office: EWX
FXUS64 KEWX 232317
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
An upper level ridge is moving into TX from the west with west-
northwesterly winds aloft. Southeasterly flow has developed in the
low levels bringing warmer, moister air back to the region.
Temperatures are only around five degrees warmer today, but
dewpoints are 15 to 20 degree higher. This moister airmass is
keeping cloudy skies over much of the CWA this afternoon.
The upper trough will slowly move across TX during this period. The
upper flow will turn to westerly and then southwesterly by Wednesday
night. The low level flow will remain from the southeast reinforcing
the deep moisture. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog
developing after midnight over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor.
There is some indication of drizzle in the model solutions, but we
will leave it out of the forecast for now. Low temperatures
Wednesday morning will be around ten degrees warmer than this
morning. The low level pattern will continue to be stagnant and
warmer temperatures will move in Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s. Little change in the airmass for Wednesday night and lows
Thursday will be about the same as Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Generally benign weather is expected during the day Thursday as the
first of a pair of strong upper level lows moves through the Four
Corners region. This upper low is forecast to quickly move into the
central Plains by mid-day Friday, with a subsequent increase in
convection developing along and ahead of the corresponding surface
cold front and dryline. Indications are the majority of the forcing
from this system will likely remain to the north of south-central
Texas, but there could be just enough combined forcing from the
upper level system and the surface boundaries to help spark some
shower and thunderstorm activity across northern portions of the
CWA. Storms would have to overcome a weak cap, but if they do so
strong to severe storms will be possible with the forecast CAPE and
shear in place.
This first upper level low will quickly be followed by a second
which will eject into the Plains late Saturday into Sunday. It
appears this low could be slightly stronger which would help improve
precipitation chances for south-central Texas, though there could
also be a stronger cap in place. With this in mind as well as the
inherent less certainty with this system being farther out in time,
PoPs are currently a bit lower, though any storm that does develop
or move into our area could be strong to severe. The Pacific
front/dryline associated with this second system could end up
stalling across or near the area for Monday and Tuesday of next week
which leads to some low-end PoPs in the forecast at this time.
As far as temperatures go, above normal temperatures will prevail
through the period, with the warmest days likely being Saturday and
Monday as some drier air works into the region behind each system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
MVFR ceilings have been slow to erode at I-35 sites, although a
brief period of VFR conditions are likely sometime between 00-04Z.
Low ceilings return this evening likely becoming MVFR/IFR in many
locations. The best chances for LIFR ceilings will be over portions
of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into SAT. Lesser
chances are seen at SSF/AUS where TEMPO LIFR conditions are forecast.
Patchy dense fog will also be possible, there is low confidence if
this would impact any terminals. Conditions will be slow to improve
again on Wednesday. South to southeast wind remains through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 84 68 85 / 0 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 84 68 84 / 0 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 85 68 86 / 0 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 65 82 68 82 / 0 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 70 93 73 93 / 0 0 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 82 68 84 / 0 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 67 86 68 89 / 0 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 84 68 85 / 0 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 67 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...27
Office: BRO
FXUS64 KBRO 232340
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Upper level ridging over the Rockies will shift eastward to the
Central Plains through the period. This will provide a broad area
of subsidence and generally dry westerly mid level flow over deep
south Texas. Low-level southerly to southeasterly return flow will
continue through the period, providing additional low level
moisture and warmer temperatures. Skies look to stay mostly cloudy
overnight tonight, however by Wednesday afternoon skies look to
become mostly sunny across the area. Cloud cover looks to increase
again Wednesday night as the boundary layer becomes more
saturated.
Temperatures are expected to continue a generally warming trend,
with high temperatures Wednesday reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night are forecast to be in
the low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Key message:
-The South Texas wind machine will switch on Thursday and Friday
Generally quiet weather will dominate the long term forecast
period. This pattern will be supported by surface high pressure
influencing the region while storm systems move over the Plains
late in the week. That doesn't mean we will go without any
threats, however. The tighter pressure gradient accompanying the
aforementioned pattern will allow strong southeast to south winds
to develop. This will be especially true Thursday and Friday and
may continue into Saturday and Sunday. Thursday will be breezy to
windy while winds on Friday will be slightly stronger and could
reach wind advisory criteria over the eastern third or so of the
CWA. The fire weather threat will remain more restrained since the
stonger winds will occur over eastern sections where relative
humidity values will remain robust. Farther west, lower wind
speeds and still decent relative humidity values will fall shy of
critical fire weather indicators.
The pattern looks dry for most of the forecast. A couple of
frontal tails will sweep across South Texas on Friday and Sunday,
but appear to stay just north of deep South Texas and the RGV.
Not until late in the forecast (Monday, day 7), does broad, mid-
level troughing shift the upstream mid-level pattern to southwest,
providing a chance for Sierra Madre Oriental front range
convection to to give it a go. Showers and thunderstorms have been
introduced next Monday afternoon and night.
Temperatures will run several degrees above normal through the
forecast with no real interruptions. There will be a mix of clouds
and sun, though windier days could support a slightly more robust
low cloud regime.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
The latest satellite imagery depicts BKN to OVC cloud cover across
the region, with most sites reporting low VFR to high MVFR
ceilings this evening. High res guidance indicates MVFR ceilings
will become more widespread overnight as low level southerly to
southeasterly flow continues to transport Gulf moisture toward the
region. Ceilings should begin to improve to VFR by mid to late
morning on Wednesday. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10-15
knots will prevail through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Now through Wednesday night...A broad area of surface high
pressure is expected to persist over the northeastern Gulf,
supporting southeasterly winds along the Lower Texas Coast.
Generally light to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas
are expected through Wednesday night, however, some stronger winds
over the Laguna Madre Wednesday afternoon could necessitate Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines.
Thursday through Sunday night...Strong southeast winds will prevail
Thursday through Friday night, courtesy of interaction between
Plains low pressure and higher pressure over the West Gulf. Small
craft advisory conditions will be the norm. After Friday night,
winds will remain moderate to fresh. Although small craft should
exercise caution conditions will be the norm on the Laguna Madre
after Friday night, wave models are showing elevated seas on the
Gulf, and continued small craft advisory conditions will be
possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 73 86 74 86 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 72 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...22-Garcia
Office: CRP
FXUS64 KCRP 232258
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
558 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
An upper level ridge is gradually building into the region early
this afternoon/evening, bringing in northwesterly winds aloft. These
upper level winds will turn southwesterly once the ridge fully moves
in early tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, a center of high
pressure sits over the Southeast CONUS allowing for the continuation
of southeasterly flow, therefore, increasing low level moisture over
South Texas. This influx of moisture is keeping conditions cloudy
this afternoon, which will continue through the overnight hours with
lows reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. In addition to the cloudy
conditions, there is a low chance (around 20%) of some patchy fog
development after midnight over the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads regions. By Wednesday afternoon, mostly sunny/partly
cloudy conditions return with highs expected in the low 80s in the
east to mid 90s out west across the Brush Country. Tomorrow night's
lows will range similarly as tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Key Messages:
-Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Saturday with heat
indices around 105 degrees out west and around 100 degrees elsewhere
The long term looks to remain relatively quiet as it begins with a
series of upper level short waves moving across the Great Plains.
These shortwaves that will move through the area Friday, Sunday, and
Monday. With above normal PWAT values ahead of these short waves
(1.7-1.9 inches) an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
each of those days. The caveat is that there isn't any surface
forcing available to enhance the environment. The best chance
looks to be Monday with PoP chances are around 20% or less in the
Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. With the gradient along
the ridge tightening over our area, onshore flow will likely
increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory
conditions beginning Thurday evening through Sunday.
It will be hot through majority of the long term with high
temperatures in the lower 80s to the east and upper 90s to the west.
Feels like temperatures out west can potentially reach 105 degrees
with lower 90s to the east. Gross I know, but this will
unfortunately be the trend through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
There is a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings to begin this TAF
period. All terminals will have prevailing MVFR by 06Z with light
southeasterly winds. Sites over the Victoria Crossroads and
Coastal Plains may see brief periods of IFR conditions. By
afternoon, VFR conditions will return with light to moderate
onshore flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Weak to moderate southeasterly flow continues this evening through
tomorrow night. Weak to moderate southeast flow Thursday is
expected to strengthen to over 20 knots Thursday and continue
impacting our local waters through Sunday. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisory conditions will likely exist Thursday through Sunday.
Onshore flow is expected to weaken to weak to moderate Monday and
persist through the remainder of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 72 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 68 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
Laredo 72 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 69 88 71 90 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 72 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 71 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 70 86 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 73 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...LS/77
Office: EPZ
FXUS64 KEPZ 232346
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
546 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Breezy to windy conditions will be the norm through Saturday. The
windiest days will be Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will
remain near or slightly above normal for the next week as well.
The only chance for precipitation will be in the Gila region on
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Typical spring pattern across the region over the upcoming week
with wind the main impact. Upper ridge currently over the area
will slowly be shifting east as an upper low moves into the Great
Basin area. This will increase southwesterly flow over the
Borderland for the next couple of days with winds on the increase,
especially Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal through
Thursday, but looks slightly cooler tomorrow compared to today due
to increasing high clouds. On Thursday, upper low opens up and
moves across the Four Corners region as a trough with upper jet
around our area. H85 winds increase to around 30KTS areawide and
looking at forecast soundings, speeds don't increase drastically
aloft. Mean sustained wind speeds on the NBM are around 30KTS for
the lowlands with gusts 40-45KTS. Looks like a widespread wind
advisory event with blowing dust and possibly wind warning for
some area mountains.
For Friday, as the first system exits onto the Centrall Plains,
another trough starts digging in from the west. This will put a
broad upper trough across the region. Temperatures will cool down
to near average for late April, but winds will continue, although
they should remain below even advisory speeds.
Going into Saturday, the upper trough over the west cutss off as
it heads towards the Four Corners region. EC and GFS are coming
more in line with a setup similar to Thursday. Winds will again be
at least approaching wind advisory criteria, direction will be
more westerly however, which could mean a little less impacts from
dust than Thu. The models are also putting out a little QPF over
the Gila region. This storm path isn't great for much moisture,
but some light rain, or even snow above 7500 feet. Probs of over a
tenth of an inch are negligible, so impacts from precip will be
minimal.
Winds start to decrease Sunday into early next week as jet stream
moves north and southwest flow becomes reestablished. This will
result in temperatures warming but with a more southerly component
to the upper flow, we may start dealing with the dryline moving in
and out by Tuesday. Latest run of the EC has retreated the dryline
Tuesday much more than previous run, so have left pops out of
forecast until Tuesday evening over far SE Hudspeth county.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
P6SM SKC through 12Z then increasing high clouds with SCT-
BKN200-250 by the end of the period. Winds west to southwest will
diminish to around 10 knots between 02-03Z. Stronger wind gusts
may linger at KELP due to east slope effects from nearby
mountains. Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning at 17Z
to 10-15G25-30KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Fire weather will be a concern over the coming days as breezy to
very windy conditions will be a daily occurrence through Saturday.
Very dry conditions with RH's into the single digits and winds of
15 to 35 mph can be expected. The windiest days will be Thursday
and Saturday as a couple of storm systems move through the Four
Corners region. For now will leave the Fire Weather Watch going on
Thursday, with potential for more Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. No
precipitation is expected except for a small chance in the Gila
region on Saturday. Less wind is expected going into early next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 64 88 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 59 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 57 87 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 53 84 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 43 60 44 55 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 55 83 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 56 75 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 51 85 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 53 82 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 61 86 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 51 88 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 56 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 56 81 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 58 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 56 84 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 63 85 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 52 83 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 52 85 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 57 85 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 54 83 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 50 75 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 45 73 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 43 71 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 46 76 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 51 82 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 48 82 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 41 72 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 47 79 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 44 80 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 76 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 51 78 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 52 83 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 55 83 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 54 83 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 53 76 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ110>113.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen
Office: HGX
FXUS64 KHGX 232344
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
A look at the satellite this afternoon will confirm from above
what you can also likely see from your nearest window - it's
mostly cloudy out there. The exception is out towards the Piney
Woods in parts of Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties, where it
will remain tree canopy that blocks your view of the sky, not the
clouds. Despite that, we are continuing the expected warming
trend, with temperatures reaching into the middle 70s throughout
the region, on pace for highs in the upper half of the 70s for
most in the next few hours.
If you like your nights a bit chillier - firstly, I congratulate
your good taste, but also I have some bad news. With clouds
staying in place, and onshore flow continuing to pump in higher
dewpoints, we are assured to have a higher temperature floor
overnight as well. Lows tonight look to be a good 10-15 degrees
higher than last night, ranging from the low 60s in the far north
to right around 70 degrees on the Gulf. This of course, sets us up
for another warm day tomorrow, in spite of another day that's
anticipated to be mostly cloudy. Starting as warm as we are, highs
should nudge up to around or above 80 degrees area-wide.
Outside of the temps and continued onshore winds, there's not a
whole lot else of note in the short term. I did struggle with rain
chances. We've got a decently low cloud base and increasing moisture,
which has me thinking we can manage a smattering or real light,
real quick sprinkles/light showers. But since these tend to struggle
to manage more than a trace of rain, and the PoPs are defined by
having measurable rain, I chose to keep those rain chances low,
below the threshold for a slight chance mention. Even if you stipulate
one of these quick hitter sprinklers, the odds aren't great for
getting even a hundredth of an inch out of them. Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Upper level ridging from Mexico into Texas will be transitioning
eastward on Thursday. This will open us to more of a swly flow
aloft with broad mid-upper troffiness situated across the western
CONUS as we close out the week.
As far as the local forecast goes, look for increasingly breezy
conditions as we head into the weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens. With steady winds coming in off the Gulf, I'd anticipate
mcldy skies, humid conditions and overnight low temperatures
resembling those of early June (low 70s). Though slightly above
normal, cloud cover should keep readings in the 83-87 range most
days.
Despite somewhat moist conditions, other some some diffuse impulses
moving overhead from time-to-time, there really isn't much in the
way of distinct triggers or focusing mechanisms needed for
widespread chances of rain. There are a few possible exceptions
we'll be keeping an eye on (mainly for the northern parts of the
CWA). Looks like there will be a few shortwaves drop into the base
of the trof then eject into the Plains. As this occurs we might
see the tail end of some associated bands of shra/tstms try to
sneak into portions of the area. Friday and Sunday would be the
days I'd be looking at if so. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs this evening. A few sites projected to
drop to lower end MVFR and perhaps even IFR briefly during the
overnight into early morning hours. S/SE winds will become light
and variable later tonight before returning to S/SE Wednesday
morning. Light showers will be possible, briefly, Wednesday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Onshore flow will continue through the week. Winds and seas will
be on an upward climb later in the week and weekend as a long fetch
of moderate to strong southeast winds set up across the Gulf.
Small craft advisories are looking increasingly probable as are
high risks of rip currents on area beaches this weekend. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 66 83 67 84 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 77 70 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
Office: LUB
FXUS64 KLUB 232322
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
The cold front has pushed into the FA, with the front stretching
from Friona to Tulia to Estelline as of 18Z. The dryline, also at
18Z, is stretching from Denver City to Lubbock to Plainview. The
front is expected to continue pushing southward through the
afternoon while the dryline continues to push eastward. Isolated
convection is still on track to develop around the triple point by
the late afternoon across the southern Rolling Plains where high
dewpoints and daytime heating allow the current low level cap to be
overcome. There is more than enough CAPE (upwards of 1500 J/kg) and
drier air aloft to allow for large hail over 2 inches in diameter
and wind gusts up to 70 mph with the strongest storms. Hi-res models
continue to indicate one main supercell late this afternoon/early
evening that tracks across our far southeastern counties and exits
to the southeast of the FA by sunset. The cold front will slow
and stall along to possibly just south of the FA tonight as the
upper ridge settles overhead and will keep winds out of the east.
The overall front is not strong and will only cool temps a couple
degrees tonight over this morning's lows. Temps will be cooler
tomorrow, however, as low stratus develops tomorrow morning. The
coverage and extent of the status is still uncertain as some
areas, mostly our southern zones, will still see sunshine and
warmer temps as a result. It will be possible to see temps ranging
from the upper 60s to the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Some
drizzle/light rain will also be possible tomorrow afternoon across
areas that have stratus cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
The pattern through the end of April remains an unsettled one
overall for West Texas thanks to a parade of troughs in southwest
flow. Wednesday evening opens with an upper ridge squarely atop the
South Plains and a frontal boundary draped W-E near or just south of
our southernmost counties. Despite the underwhelming background
support for deep convection, the presence of enhanced moisture
convergence along this front and particularly its intersection with
a dryline near Highway 87 should bolster odds for storm development
through the evening hours, particularly given modest CIN nearest the
dryline. Opted to expand NBM's slight chance PoPs Wednesday evening
southwest through Garza and Crosby Counties to give more credence
to various CAMs. Convection should trend increasingly elevated
overnight as WAA escalates and the surface front retreats northward.
These patterns underneath or just downstream of an upper ridge
tend to favor nocturnal storms following the H7 thermal gradient
which in this case shifts beyond our area and into the eastern TX
Panhandle and southwest OK after midnight, so precip chances
should wane after midnight.
Thursday morning's upper ridge will quickly shift east ahead of an
upper low lifting northeast and over the Four Corners by the
afternoon. As richer Gulf moisture streams north, the dryline will
sharpen considerably and likely stall over the middle of the CWA,
perhaps farther west given the still-distant upper trough. Given
most/all of our area will reside south of the upper jet during the
daytime, it appears a sizable EML will hold until the sharpest
height falls and mid-level cooling arrive after sunset complete
with a Pacific cold front. Opted to leave a low chance mention of
afternoon PoPs across our northeast zones where stronger dryline
convergence could offset the cap before a greater coverage of
storms unfolds after sunset. On the heels of this negatively-
tilted trough, Friday remains dry and windy before the next potent
upper trough gears up to our west complete with another bout of
dryline storms for Saturday. Models are in good accord with
Saturday's dryline and attendant threat for severe storms staying
in the Rolling Plains given a faster upper trough progression.
Post-dryline winds could reach 30+ mph on Saturday given a more
favorable window of deep mixing into stronger winds aloft. Sunday
remains quiet, dry and breezy ahead of a weak cold front and
northerly wind shift Sunday night. This boundary probably won't
have much impact on Monday's temps and should wash out under
zonal flow before southwest flow reloads on Tuesday. This pattern
will spur a return of moist southerlies in the low levels along
with the potential for more dryline storms by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Early evening TS to stay to the south/southeast of the terminals
leaving VFR conditions until late tonight/near sunrise Wednesday
when low level moistening on modest upslope northeast to east flow
results in stratus across much of the northeastern half of the
forecast area. This will bring at least MVFR ceilings for an
extended period at KCDS, a shorter period at KPVW, and is looking
more likely for at least a brief period at KLBB. In addition, IFR
(if not LIFR) is looking likely at KCDS for a period and have
inserted those conditions into that TAF.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07
Office: MAF
FXUS64 KMAF 232259
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Temperatures are warming up quickly this afternoon with weak
ridging overhead and westerly winds at the surface. Along with
some afternoon heating, we are seeing some moisture convergence
near and east of Davis Mountains. As a result, a few storms have
developed near the Glass Mountains and Stockton Plateau early this
afternoon. One or two stronger storms could produce large hail and
damaging winds. Also starting to see some activity developing
near the dryline in the northern Permian Basin. As the dryline
pushes east this afternoon, a cold front will continue to push
south, approaching the northern Permian Basin early this evening.
Convection looks to develop ahead of this front, east of the
dryline, affecting the northern Permian Basin region through this
evening. A couple of these storms could be severe but best chances
for very large hail will be far northeastern areas. Thunderstorm
chances rapidly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating.
The warm temperatures continue Wednesday with highs generally in
the 80s and 90s once again. Temperatures around 100 are likely
along/near the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Low thunderstorm
chances return Wednesday afternoon as the dryline sharpens near
the NM/TX state line. Upper ridging will remain in place tomorrow
so thunderstorm coverage looks to be isolated at best, if at all.
Highest chances (10-15 percent) are generally confined to the
northeastern Permian Basin where better moisture resides. IF we
see storms develop, one or two could become severe, potentially
producing large hail and/or damaging wind. Again, chances are very
low at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
A deep upper level trough arrives in the area on Thursday. Ahead
of the trough a dryline forms in the eastern Permian Basin that
will serve as the focus for thunderstorms. Behind the dryline will
be windy and dry with strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and
very windy conditions extending east into the adjacent plains.
Friday the trough lifts northeast then north into the northern
Great Plains preventing much of an eastward push to the dryline
and leaving it in the Permian Basin. The trough is quickly
replaced by a second that keeps the windy conditions going into
the weekend as well as the threat for storms forming along the
dryline.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm
activity should remain to the east of MAF and south of FST,
dissipating after sunset this evening. Toward morning, MVFR
ceilings will develop northwestward, but are expected to remain
just to the east of MAF. Diurnal cumulus development is expected
after 24/18Z, mainly at MAF/FST, with thunderstorms possible.
Gusty winds will largely diminish after sunset tonight, with the
exception of FST where a nocturnal low-level jet will keep winds
elevated. Winds become variable Wednesday morning as a weak front
moves into the area, but then settle out of the S/SE again by
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
The fire weather threat remains low tomorrow before stronger winds
and very dry air create near critical to critical fire weather
conditions Thursday into the weekend. The main threat area will be
from southeastern New Mexico to the Big Bend where winds will be
strongest. These areas also did not receive much rain recently as
other areas to the east and have lower fuel moisture levels.
Overnight recovery will be good in the east, poor farther west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 59 86 66 87 / 0 10 10 10
Carlsbad 55 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 61 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 59 94 64 93 / 0 10 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 59 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 52 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 51 88 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 59 89 66 89 / 0 10 10 10
Odessa 60 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 10
Wink 58 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84
Office: SJT
FXUS64 KSJT 232245
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Mild and breezy day on tap across west Central Texas. Morning
cloud cover has given way to mostly sunny skies with breezy
southerly winds. Temperatures will continue warming nicely into
the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. There remains the possibility
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
later afternoon near the dry line/triple point intersection
off the Caprock into northwest Texas. Some of these storms may
drift southeastward into the Big Country through the evening
hours. Given steep lapse rates aloft and ML CAPE values near 2000
J/K a few of these storms may become strong to severe, with large
hail greater than golf ball size the primary threat. Otherwise,
expect quiet conditiions tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.
For Wednesday expect another mild day with temperatures warming
back into the mid to upper 80s. Another round of showers and
storms may develop by the late afternoon/evening mainly across the
Permian Basin. Given a stout capping version evident in the model
soundings will maintain a dry forecast through the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
By Wednesday evening, the upper ridge will be moving east, with
southwest flow moving in behind it. This will increase southerly
winds and moisture near the surface in our area. The remnants of a
frontal boundary are expected to be just north of the area. With
shortwave energy moving in on increasing southwesterly flow aloft,
we could see storms develop by Wednesday evening along and north
of Interstate 20 to just west of the area that could affect the
Big Country. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.
The concern for thunderstorms continues into Thursday night as an
approaching upper trough moves through the Four Corners region
and into the central/southern plains by Friday morning. Increasing
southwesterly flow and attendant lift associated with the trough
will interact with abundant surface/low level moisture, as well as
an approaching dryline/Pacific front. The current timing of the
combination of these ingredients is expected late Thursday night
just west of the area, with storms affecting west central Texas
during the overnight hours. The best chances for this activity
will be over the northern half of the area, but the entire CWA
will have a chance for storms. Again, any of the storms that form
Thursday night may increase to severe levels, with the main
concerns being large hail and damaging winds.
Another upper low/trough will develop by Friday night over the
southwestern U. S. Once again, moisture will be drawn northward
into our area by Friday evening. Additional shortwave energy is
expected to move in over the area as well, bringing another chance
for late night thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning.
As the parent low moves from the Four Corners into the central
plains area Saturday into Saturday night, a Pacific cold front
will move in which should initiate yet another round of storms
Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly for the eastern half of
the area. As with the previous rounds, some of these storms could
be severe.
Expect generally quieter weather to start the work week next
week. Temperatures will be warm throughout the long term with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, and lows mainly in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Expect VFR conditions this evening across the area. Expect
widespread stratus to spread north across much of the area late
tonight and Wednesday morning with MVFR ceilings at the terminals.
Also, a few hours of IFR ceilings are possible at the
KSJT/KSOA/KBBD terminals mainly between 12Z and 16Z. Also, a few
storms may move into the Big Country this evening. Will watch the
KABI terminal for possible amendments for storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 84 67 85 / 20 10 10 10
San Angelo 62 89 67 86 / 0 10 10 10
Junction 64 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 61 83 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
Sweetwater 60 84 67 84 / 20 10 20 10
Ozona 62 86 66 83 / 0 0 0 10
Brady 64 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21
Office: FWD
FXUS64 KFWD 232335
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/
A dryline to the west and a stalling front along the Red River
will both provide focus for isolated thunderstorms over the next
36 hours. The dryline storms which developed over the past few
hours will remain primarily west of the region, but a few may
reach our far western zones before dissipating. Young and Stephens
Counties are hence within the eastern bounds of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 132, which is in effect until 10PM. Large hail
and damaging winds would both be possible for any storm that
reaches Breckenridge, Graham and surrounding areas. A strong cap
and strengthening ridge aloft will likely shut off convection for
areas farther east.
The front will become the focus for development overnight into
Wednesday when a weak disturbance rounds the northern flank of the
ridge aloft. Most of the convection will be elevated north of the
surface front, keeping the majority of the overnight/Wednesday
activity in Oklahoma. The northern zones may still experience the
southern-most of these showers and storms, and will thus maintain
chance to slight chance POPs for areas generally along and north
of Highway 380 starting tonight. A few of these storms could be
strong with hail and gusty winds.
Otherwise, a warming trend will continue along with increasing
humidity as south winds draw Gulf moisture north through the
region. Winds, low clouds and dewpoints in the 60s will keep
tonight much warmer than previous nights, with lows in the 60s
expected area-wide. Tomorrow's highs may be a touch warmer,
ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to the lower and
middle 80s out west.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/Thursday through Tuesday/
The latter half of week through the weekend will be very warm,
humid and unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms.
A strong low level warm air advection pattern will remain in place
Thursday ahead of a deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest.
Subtle shortwave energy emerging out of the base of the main
trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms across the
northwest and northern zones through the day Thursday while the
remainder of the forecast area will stay capped and rain-free. The
only exception will be a few warm air advection sprinkles or
light showers. Storm chances will increase Thursday night once the
upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains, dragging a dryline
and weak front into the western CWA. Some storms may become
strong to severe, especially across the western zones where shear
and instability will be the most favorable. Storms will progress
eastward across the region Friday with the passing trough axis.
There is a medium chance for strong to severe storms on Friday,
especially east of the I-35 corridor during the afternoon where
the air will be the most unstable. There will be a lull in
precipitation Friday night, but another upper low will move
quickly on heels of the departing system, bringing rain/storm
chances to the region just in time for the weekend. This second
system will follow a similar track as the late week system, with
storm chances increasing from west to east Saturday and decreasing
in similar fashion on Sunday with the arrival of a weak cold
front. Some strong to severe storms will be possible given the
projected shear and instability. The cold front will likely stall
across the CWA Sunday night through Monday, warranting at least
some low PoPs. Rain chances will temporarily end or decrease
significantly Tuesday with brief ridging aloft, but the active
split flow pattern will likely persist through the end of April.
The progressive nature of these system should keep the overall
flood threat low, but recent heavy rainfall and some rivers
currently near flood stage could result in some localized
flooding issues.
Temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will be near or slightly
above seasonal normals with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
middle 80s. Lows will stay generally in the 60s.
79
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Low clouds have lifted to VFR and will likely dissipate around
sunset. MVFR ceilings will return overnight as Gulf moisture
surges north. Conditions may occasionally drop into IFR Wednesday
morning, so will include a TEMPO group for IFR ceilings from
13-16Z. Conditions will improve to VFR early Wednesday afternoon.
South winds will not be as strong on Wednesday, likely remaining
10-15kt.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 81 68 81 68 / 10 10 20 10 40
Waco 66 81 68 81 70 / 5 5 5 5 20
Paris 62 77 64 79 67 / 5 50 30 30 30
Denton 63 81 66 80 66 / 10 20 20 10 50
McKinney 64 80 67 79 68 / 10 20 20 10 40
Dallas 66 82 69 82 69 / 10 10 10 10 30
Terrell 64 80 65 80 68 / 5 20 10 10 20
Corsicana 66 82 67 82 70 / 5 5 5 5 10
Temple 65 81 66 82 69 / 5 5 0 5 20
Mineral Wells 63 82 67 83 66 / 10 5 20 10 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
