tx discuss
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 130506
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
- Shower and thunderstorms chances persist for the panhandle
during the next 7 days.
- Below average high temperatures will continue until a warming
trend begins later this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Afternoon-evening opportunities for spotty showers and storms could
materialize across portions of the Panhandle today, as we enjoy
another day of highs in the 80s. Quality moisture content has
persisted, characterized by dew pts in the low 60s with PWATs >1"
being commonplace. Strong 700mb theta-e advection combined with
localized areas of sfc convergence will support 15-25% chances for
convective development across mainly the southwest TX Panhandle.
Gusty winds and brief downpours would be the main threat from any
activity, but severe storms and flooding rains aren't anticipated at
this time. Subsident flow aloft will make precip much harder to come
by Monday, while promoting slightly higher afternoon temperatures in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will stay mild in the 60s
through Tuesday.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
We're still staring down a cooler and wetter than average stretch of
weather through the rest of the week across the Panhandles. Forecast
highs hold steady in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, thanks to
stagnate flow aloft as we sit south of the jet stream. By late Wed
into Thu, models show a low-level boundary stalling in our region,
with ample moisture pooled along and behind it. Despite the lack of
synoptic support, model data paint 20-60% chances for rounds of
precipitation until Fri morning, when drier mid-level air should
take over. By late week, long range ensembles show broad high
pressure finally taking better shape across the southern CONUS. In
turn, that summer heat we've been dodging early this season may
start to rear its ugly head into next week. Thankfully,
probabilities to reach triple digits are less than 20% every day.
And while precipitation chances decline, they won't entirely
disappear.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period
with mostly light and variable winds < 10kts. Some hi-res data
suggest a few sporadic low clouds could materialize later tonight
into the morning hours, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs. Chances for a stray shower/storm to develop near KAMA or
KDHT this afternoon-evening are too low to include in the TAF but
will continue to be monitored.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
Office: EWX
FXUS64 KEWX 130603
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
103 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dangerous risk with potential of high impact flash flooding is
forecast for later tonight into Sunday
- Level 3 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for the rest of tonight
into Sunday morning for parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country; a Level 2 of 4 risk along the I-35 corridor and/or
near the Rio Grande
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated 9 to 12 inches
possible across the Flood Watch area through Sunday evening
- Rapid river rises are anticipated with this dangerous flash
flooding event
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
A dangerous risk with the potential of high impact flash flooding
event is unfolding late tonight into Sunday. Various meteorological
features are forecast to come together to create heavy rain rates (2
to 4 inches/hr) leading to flash flooding and rapid river rises. The
complex of storms is likely to slowly push to the southeast from the
San Angelo area as abundant Gulf moisture feeds into the convergence
zone (line of storms). This is a dangerous situation since we
already had a significant heavy rain event last week with soils near
to saturation or at saturation levels. Runoff will take over quickly
making rivers to rise to dangerous levels in addition to flash
flooding across poor drainage and low-lying areas and low water
crossing. Hires models are in good agreement with tonight's heavy
rainfall event and therefore, our confidence is medium to high as
far as occurrence and locations. With that said, higher rainfall
amounts are expected through the Flood Watch period with 2 to 4
inches and isolated 9 to 12 inches possible.
There is a good chance that the Flood Watch gets extended and
expanded on Sunday with new data suggesting for heavy rain to
continue Sunday evening into Monday morning as a mesoscale
convective vortex lingers around the Hill Country. For now, we are
concentrating for the late tonight into Sunday morning period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
For the extended forecast period, relatively dry and warm conditions
are expected mid to late week with high temperatures at seasonal
values for most of the work week and reaching the mid to upper 90s
by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
MVFR cigs return overnight across the local area terminals and stay
through mid morning on Sunday. We are expected heavy rain overnight
into Sunday morning across the Hill Country, southern Edwards
Plateau, and Rio Grande. At this time, this activity should stay to
the north and northwest of the airports. By mid to late Sunday
morning into the afternoon period, rain chances and thunderstorm
probabilities increase for the I-35 sites and KDRT. Stronger storms
could produce heavy downpours and reduced visibilities. A southeast
to south wind flow is forecast to dominate during this forecast
cycle with speeds around 6 to 12 knots and gusts up to 22 knots .
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 92 74 93 75 / 60 20 20 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 74 92 75 / 50 20 20 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 73 94 74 / 40 20 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 88 72 90 73 / 70 30 20 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 95 76 95 77 / 30 40 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 90 73 92 74 / 60 30 20 0
Hondo Muni Airport 93 73 93 75 / 30 30 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 93 74 / 50 20 20 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 93 75 93 76 / 30 20 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 95 75 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-
Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...17
Office: BRO
FXUS64 KBRO 131057 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
557 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
An area of high pressure over the Gulf will expand over Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will keep rain chances very
low (less than 10%). However, a stray shower or thunderstorm with
the afternoon seabreeze still remains possible. Southeasterly winds
are expected to persist over the region through the forecast periods
with winds gusting up to 25 mph possible for mostly the Valley and
right along the coast.
As for temperatures, the low temperatures are generally expected to
be in the 70s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley. However a few locations for the extreme Southern parts of
the CWA could approach the 80s. The high temperatures are expected
to generally be in the 90s, however a few places in Starr and Zapata
counties could be in the triple digits. The heat risk for the
forecast period will mostly be moderate (level 2 of 4) for the
region. The heat indices are expected to be in the range of 105-108
and thus below Heat Advisory criteria. However it is still important
to practice heat safety to prevent any heat-related illnesses.
Increasing swell affecting the Lower Texas coast will allow for
moderate risk of rip current for the next several days. Be careful
if venturing into the water and remember rip currents are highest
near piers and jetties.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Only minor adjustments to the previous issuance of TAFs. MVFR to
VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the
next 24 hours. Winds will become breezy today before diminishing
this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy, rain-free skies will also
occur.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Generally favorable conditions are expected with light to moderate
southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas. High pressure over
the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through
the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 97 80 97 80 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 97 78 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 80 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 91 78 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Office: CRP
FXUS64 KCRP 130517
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
- Low rain chances (~20) Sunday and Monday.
- Dry the rest of the week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Convection coverage was minimal once again today which leads me to
believe we'll see a similar story tomorrow with little change in the
expected moisture and support. Have added a bit of slight chance
(20%) farther west than previous forecasts as a weak mid level
impulse is noted moving northward through the Rio Grande Plains and
into the northern Brush Country. Otherwise, mainly isolated streamer
and sea breeze activity is expected again on Sunday. Could see a
minor uptick (20-30%) in the Crossroads on Monday as shortwaves pass
relatively close to the north.
The remainder of the period looks dry as deep layer moisture drops
below normal. Seasonal temperatures continue with persistent
conditions each day. With the drier air moving in by mid-week we
should be able to knock a degree or two off of overnight lows.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Expecting MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for ALI/LRD tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Light
Southeast winds tomorrow with gust up to around 25 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly winds will continue over
the waters through Sunday, diminishing to more moderate levels
through much of next week. Low rain chances (20-30%) remain in the
forecast through Monday before mainly dry conditions persist
through the remainder of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 93 78 92 79 / 10 0 10 0
Victoria 93 76 94 76 / 20 0 30 0
Laredo 101 78 101 79 / 10 0 10 0
Alice 96 76 96 76 / 10 0 20 0
Rockport 90 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 0
Cotulla 101 79 101 80 / 20 10 10 0
Kingsville 93 76 93 77 / 10 0 10 0
Navy Corpus 89 81 89 81 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
Office: EPZ
FXUS64 KEPZ 130449
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1049 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 745 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
- An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through
the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy
rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized
blowing dust.
- With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, day time
temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today and
through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 745 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
As our recent upper-level high pressure feature continues to
recenter well to our west, our region will see more and more
influence from conditions to our the east. A big reason for this is
a broad upper high well to our east that is nosing across West
Texas. This places us in the weakness between high pressure west and
high pressure east. For much of the week ahead we will be in a deep
S and SE flow over our region at mid and upper levels. This means an
increase in easterly low-level flow, which will be accompanied by
Gulf moisture. The entire week ahead will feature a relatively
moist environment across the Borderland. We won't see much more
than typical monsoon month moisture levels, but our 40-50+ surface
dewpoints and PWATs in the 0.90" to 1.20" will be plenty enough
to keep our atmosphere conditionally unstable.
With all the model convective feedback, it is difficult to find any
organized shortwaves or impulses tracking over, in the synoptic
flow, through the week. This makes it hard to key on one day looking
more active than another, is it appears we will be dealing with
airmass type storms, forming off heat and upslope flow midday,
followed by outflow generated storms later day.
Looking at layer RH, and QFP fields it simply looks like we collect
a broad channel of moisture, N to S, across our region, and keep it
anchored, trapped, over the region through the week.
We should have a relatively consistent diurnal pattern of scattered
to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening through
the forecast cycle.
The increased moisture, clouds, and showers/storms will keep our
temperatures lower, and out of 100 degree contention, with our
highest highs across the lowlands in the mid 90s.
Looking ahead to next weekend, the GFS model does indicate a
westward shift of the moisture, with drier air pushing in and
reducing rain and storm chances. That shift is way to far out to be
confident in that, so we'll keep daily pops in the forecast through
the end of the run.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
AFT 05-06Z most activity should be south of all terminals and
tracking away into Mexico. With this, we will see calming winds,
settling dust, and clearing skies, with VFR conditions through the
night and through Sunday morning. We expect another round of shower
and thunderstorm development around 18Z tomorrow over area
mountains, to be followed by lowland storms aft 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 745 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
With high pressure aloft finally dislodging to the west, and high
pressure nudging in from the east, we will begin to see increased
moisture filter in from the east and south. This pattern will open
up a N-S channel which will trap moisture across the region. This
will mean a trend toward slightly cooler temperatures, and somewhat
higher relative humidity. This also means daily rounds of scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the expected rains and
elevated dewpoints, nighttime RH recoveries will be good to very
good. Afternoon RH will be higher, but still dip briefly into the
upper teens to lower 20 percent range early afternoons.
Most mornings will be generally sunny, with potential for some
lingering clouds from the previous evening's storms. The mornings
will warm and dry quick, followed by late morning buildups forming
over the mountains. Storms will form first over the area mountains,
reversing the warming and drying for the afternoons.
Lowlands will see late day showers and storms, formed often on
outflows from the earlier storms.
All personnel in the field should expect a week of unsettled
afternoon weather conditions, and be mindful of the hazards of
lightning, erratic outflow winds, and possible flash flooding off
burn scars, and in drainage bottoms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 102 74 97 72 / 40 40 30 40
Sierra Blanca 93 65 89 63 / 20 40 50 40
Las Cruces 100 68 95 67 / 40 50 30 60
Alamogordo 97 66 93 65 / 20 20 50 40
Cloudcroft 74 50 72 48 / 50 30 70 40
Truth or Consequences 99 70 96 68 / 40 40 40 50
Silver City 93 61 91 60 / 40 60 70 60
Deming 102 69 99 68 / 40 50 30 60
Lordsburg 99 68 98 67 / 20 40 50 70
West El Paso Metro 100 73 96 72 / 40 50 30 50
Dell City 94 70 93 67 / 20 20 30 30
Fort Hancock 101 72 97 70 / 20 40 50 30
Loma Linda 91 65 88 63 / 20 10 30 30
Fabens 100 71 96 70 / 20 20 30 30
Santa Teresa 99 70 95 69 / 40 50 20 50
White Sands HQ 98 71 96 70 / 40 40 40 50
Jornada Range 98 67 96 66 / 40 40 40 50
Hatch 101 69 98 67 / 40 50 40 60
Columbus 102 71 98 70 / 30 50 30 60
Orogrande 94 69 92 65 / 30 30 40 40
Mayhill 81 55 80 54 / 50 30 70 40
Mescalero 86 54 83 53 / 50 30 70 40
Timberon 81 54 78 52 / 50 20 60 40
Winston 92 57 89 55 / 40 40 60 60
Hillsboro 97 64 95 62 / 50 50 60 60
Spaceport 98 66 95 64 / 30 40 40 50
Lake Roberts 94 56 92 56 / 50 60 70 60
Hurley 96 64 93 62 / 40 60 60 60
Cliff 99 65 98 64 / 40 40 60 60
Mule Creek 95 62 96 61 / 40 40 60 60
Faywood 94 64 92 63 / 50 60 60 60
Animas 99 68 98 66 / 20 30 50 70
Hachita 98 66 97 65 / 20 40 40 70
Antelope Wells 97 68 96 65 / 30 40 60 70
Cloverdale 92 64 91 63 / 20 40 70 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird
Office: HGX
FXUS64 KHGX 130518
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
- Chances for scattered showers and storms continues Sunday into
early next week. A few strong storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.
- Moderate to High rip current risk along Gulf-facing beaches on
Sunday.
- Potential for high temperatures to peak in the mid 90s after the
middle of next week. Heat indices in the triple digits for most
of the week.
- A coastal trough approaches the north-central Gulf coast towards
the end of the work week bringing an increasing chance of
showers/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Taking a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals from Saturday,
it's very apparent the vast majority of the area did not see
rain...but those that did saw quite a bit. The big winner for
Saturday was eastern Montgomery County where an estimated 2-3+" fell
today, and in fact most of the rain that fell on Saturday occurred
north of I-10. The reason I'm bringing that up is because Sunday
looks to favor a similar rainfall pattern. Latest HREF reflects most
of the rainfall occuring north of I-10 again on Sunday. This is due
to greater moisture availability across the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods (PW values greater than 2.0") and closer proximity to a
shortwave trough extending from central Texas to northeast Texas.
Coverage of showers/storms is expected to increase in the late
morning to afternoon hours as convection moves in from central
Texas. A combination of outflow boundaries and daytime heating is
expected to lead to additional convection ahead of the incoming
broken line of storms. As we saw on Saturday, any of the stronger
storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and
strong wind gusts. Rainfall rates could exceed 2-3"/hr, so an
extended period of heavy rain over one area could result in pockets
of 1-3" of rainfall totals. As a result, WPC has portions of the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall for Sunday. As far as temperatures go, expect
high temperatures in the low 90s with a few spots of mid 90s and low
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
The shortwave trough remains in place going into Monday although
there is some slight uncertainty on when or if it evolves into a
cutoff low around the Red River. In some deterministic guidance this
occurs a bit earlier which would take away most of the PVA by
Monday. As you can imagine that would have an impact on rain
chances. For now, we're playing it safe and keeping rain chances
somewhat elevated on Monday, but after that rain chances go on a
decreasing trend into midweek. This lines up with a gradually
expanding mid level high that will be centered over the southeastern
CONUS. That explains the slight warming trend up into the mid 90s (a
few spots in the upper 90s can't be completely ruled out) around
midweek. Heat indices will be in the triple digits for most of the
week, but dew points should mix out enough to keep heat indices just
below advisory criteria. Towards the end of the work week, a coastal
trough develops in the eastern Gulf and tracks westward into the
north-central Gulf coast. This will lead to increasing chances of
showers/storms...check out the Tropical section down below. Now I
already know what y'all are thinking ("check out the WHAT!!!"),
but the NHC has given this coastal trough a low probability of
tropical development over the next 7 days. More details below.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Going to be a bit of a rinse-and-repeat forecast through Sunday.
Got some lingering, but weakening, thunderstorms impacting CXO and
UTS currently, but these storms are expected to end no later than
1z. Some isolated showers will also be popping up in the coastal
waters through late this evening as well. However, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the day on Sunday
following the similar pattern of initiating along the coast in the
late morning, then spreading inland through the afternoon before
dissipating in the evening.
VFR conditions will continue through around midnight across the
area, then BKN CIGs around 2000ft are expected to develop at CLL,
UTS, and possibly down to CXO during the late night hours through
around sunrise. Patchy fog will also be possible. Southerly winds
continue with winds around 5kt overnight, then rising to 8-12kt
during the day (with higher gusts near thunderstorms).
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
next week. Southeasterly winds overnight look to briefly approach
the threshold for caution flags with sustained winds around 15 kt.
This elevated onshore flow will keep seas around 4 ft through Sunday
along with increasing the rip current risk, so be sure to take the
proper precautions if visiting any Gulf-facing beaches. Daily
chances for scattered showers and storms continue into early next
week with some storms having the potential to produce locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and elevated seas. There will be a brief
period of drier conditions around midweek before shower/storm
chances return at the end of the work week as a coastal trough
transitions from the eastern Gulf to the north-central Gulf coast.
Batiste
Beach conditions: There is a Moderate to High risk of rip current
along all Gulf-facing beaches on Sunday. Use extra caution! Always
follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from piers
and jetties.
JM
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
You might be surprised to see a Tropical section in the AFD, but
rest assured there is no need to worry. This is only being
addressed since there will probably be questions about the low
(20%) probability of tropical development in the central/eastern
Gulf over the next seven days. Going into early next week, a
trough of low pressure is expected to develop near or around the
Big Bend region of Florida (far eastern Gulf) and drift westward
towards the central Gulf staying right along the coast. Some
gradual development of this coastal trough is possible around or
after midweek. The vast majority of ensemble members take this
trough of low pressure into the north-central Gulf coast bringing
that region rounds of heavy rainfall. Towards the end of the work
week, some of that moisture drifts into the Upper Texas coast
bringing an increase in rain chances for our area. Other than
increased rain chances late in the work week, no other impacts are
expected for Southeast Texas at this time.
Stay up to date on the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks from the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and stay up to date on
the latest forecasts for Southeast Texas at weather.gov/houston
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 30 0
Houston (IAH) 92 76 92 76 / 50 10 50 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 30 10 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 130534
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
- Chances for scattered showers and storms continues Sunday into
early next week. A few strong storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.
- Moderate to High rip current risk along Gulf-facing beaches on
Sunday.
- Potential for high temperatures to peak in the mid 90s after the
middle of next week. Heat indices in the triple digits for most
of the week.
- A coastal trough approaches the north-central Gulf coast towards
the end of the work week bringing an increasing chance of
showers/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Taking a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals from Saturday,
it's very apparent the vast majority of the area did not see
rain...but those that did saw quite a bit. The big winner for
Saturday was eastern Montgomery County where an estimated 2-3+" fell
today, and in fact most of the rain that fell on Saturday occurred
north of I-10. The reason I'm bringing that up is because Sunday
looks to favor a similar rainfall pattern. Latest HREF reflects most
of the rainfall occuring north of I-10 again on Sunday. This is due
to greater moisture availability across the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods (PW values greater than 2.0") and closer proximity to a
shortwave trough extending from central Texas to northeast Texas.
Coverage of showers/storms is expected to increase in the late
morning to afternoon hours as convection moves in from central
Texas. A combination of outflow boundaries and daytime heating is
expected to lead to additional convection ahead of the incoming
broken line of storms. As we saw on Saturday, any of the stronger
storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and
strong wind gusts. Rainfall rates could exceed 2-3"/hr, so an
extended period of heavy rain over one area could result in pockets
of 1-3" of rainfall totals. As a result, WPC has portions of the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall for Sunday. As far as temperatures go, expect
high temperatures in the low 90s with a few spots of mid 90s and low
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
The shortwave trough remains in place going into Monday although
there is some slight uncertainty on when or if it evolves into a
cutoff low around the Red River. In some deterministic guidance this
occurs a bit earlier which would take away most of the PVA by
Monday. As you can imagine that would have an impact on rain
chances. For now, we're playing it safe and keeping rain chances
somewhat elevated on Monday, but after that rain chances go on a
decreasing trend into midweek. This lines up with a gradually
expanding mid level high that will be centered over the southeastern
CONUS. That explains the slight warming trend up into the mid 90s (a
few spots in the upper 90s can't be completely ruled out) around
midweek. Heat indices will be in the triple digits for most of the
week, but dew points should mix out enough to keep heat indices just
below advisory criteria. Towards the end of the work week, a coastal
trough develops in the eastern Gulf and tracks westward into the
north-central Gulf coast. This will lead to increasing chances of
showers/storms...check out the Tropical section down below. Now I
already know what y'all are thinking ("check out the WHAT!!!"),
but the NHC has given this coastal trough a low probability of
tropical development over the next 7 days. More details below.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected overnight in locations
that received heavy rainfall yesterday. Most areas are expected to
remain VFR. We are monitoring thunderstorms across central Texas.
This activity is expected to move towards SE Texas during the
morning hours. However, there is uncertainty regarding the
coverage. There is also uncertainty regarding the timing of
storms. We went with more of an afternoon tsra threat. However,
there are scenarios where the central Texas storms reach the
Brazos Valley as early as the morning hours. Also may be showers
and isolated storms that develop near the coast during the early
morning hours today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
next week. Southeasterly winds overnight look to briefly approach
the threshold for caution flags with sustained winds around 15 kt.
This elevated onshore flow will keep seas around 4 ft through Sunday
along with increasing the rip current risk, so be sure to take the
proper precautions if visiting any Gulf-facing beaches. Daily
chances for scattered showers and storms continue into early next
week with some storms having the potential to produce locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and elevated seas. There will be a brief
period of drier conditions around midweek before shower/storm
chances return at the end of the work week as a coastal trough
transitions from the eastern Gulf to the north-central Gulf coast.
Batiste
Beach conditions: There is a Moderate to High risk of rip current
along all Gulf-facing beaches on Sunday. Use extra caution! Always
follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from piers
and jetties.
JM
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
You might be surprised to see a Tropical section in the AFD, but
rest assured there is no need to worry. This is only being
addressed since there will probably be questions about the low
(20%) probability of tropical development in the central/eastern
Gulf over the next seven days. Going into early next week, a
trough of low pressure is expected to develop near or around the
Big Bend region of Florida (far eastern Gulf) and drift westward
towards the central Gulf staying right along the coast. Some
gradual development of this coastal trough is possible around or
after midweek. The vast majority of ensemble members take this
trough of low pressure into the north-central Gulf coast bringing
that region rounds of heavy rainfall. Towards the end of the work
week, some of that moisture drifts into the Upper Texas coast
bringing an increase in rain chances for our area. Other than
increased rain chances late in the work week, no other impacts are
expected for Southeast Texas at this time.
Stay up to date on the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks from the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and stay up to date on
the latest forecasts for Southeast Texas at weather.gov/houston
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 30 0
Houston (IAH) 92 76 92 76 / 50 10 50 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 30 10 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
Office: LUB
FXUS64 KLUB 130537
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
- Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and overnight.
- Warmer today with near normal highs continuing through the
week.
- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Cooler than normal temperatures continue today and storm chances
return by the afternoon. The upper ridging over SoCal will expand
to the east with the eastern edge just clipping our region and
the secondary upper ridging over the Gulf Coast states remains
stagnant through the day. An upper trough currently over the
Central Plains will slightly shift to the east over the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Light southeasterly surface winds will
prevail today in response to a surface trough over New Mexico
drawing in moisture from the Gulf keeping dewpoints in the 60s to
lower 70s. Increasing heights and thicknesses will slightly warm
temperatures to the mid to upper 80s today.
Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and
evening with help from southeasterly upslope winds. However,
forcing and instability are expected to be weak, therefore any
storms that do develop should be sub-severe. Main hazard expected
will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding. An isolated severe
wind gust or two are also possible. CAMs indicate the greatest
chances for isolated storms to develop will be west of the I-27
corridor with some of this lingering overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
The extended forecast continues to feature gradually moderating
temperatures, trending back up to around seasonal norms by mid-week,
where they will remain through the rest of the week. Most days also
have at least a slight chance of showers/storms somewhere in the CWA
through the week, though the overall rain chances/coverage are
trending lower in much of the medium range suite of NWP.
Regarding the details, the deeper monsoon moisture axis is expected
to reside downstate to start the long term (Sunday evening), but it
will be inclined to edge this way early next week as a subtropical
high over the Deep South and Gulf builds into East Texas. However,
the mid-level moisture plume is also forecast to thin as it centers
more closely overhead Monday into Tuesday. Aside from possible
lingering low-level boundaries (location uncertain) and daytime
heating, overall forcing will be weak/nebulous, which may tend to
limit coverage/focus for deep moist convection. The exception
will be over the higher terrain of northeast NM, where orographic
effects will result widespread storm development Sunday afternoon.
This activity may grow upscale through the evening, potentially
affecting our western counties, though northerly flow aloft will
tend to limit how far east this activity can make it Sunday
evening/night.
Thereafter, the upper high is progged to continue its westward
expansion, with drier air aloft advecting into the region mid-late
week as the monsoon reorganizes and is directed more squarely into
the Four Corners. Daily rain/storm chances will be modulated by the
upper high and position of the monsoonal moisture. In general, the
medium range NWP agree the best rain chances will reside to the west
of the CWA, though some activity could occasionally "leak" into our
western/northwestern zones, particularly when shortwaves traversing
the northern tier of the nation bend the moisture feed eastward. We
have accepted the NBM PoPs for now, but if the stronger/closer upper
ridge continues to gain traction, PoPs will need to be reduced and
confined farther to the west than currently depicted mid-late week.
Regardless, temperatures will trend warmer given the increasing
heights/thicknesses.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Earlier threat of MVFR CIGs at CDS by daybreak is trending more
toward VFR, so have reduced mention to scattered low clouds for a
couple hours. Very moist NE winds approaching PVW could fuel a
bout of IFR stratus this morning before quickly mixing out after
sunrise, although more models suggest this is unlikely. Later
this afternoon and evening, ISO SHRA and TS could flirt with LBB
and PVW.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...93
Office: MAF
FXUS64 KMAF 130630
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
- Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the
higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). Rain chances
Monday look similar to those of today. Localized flash flooding
remains possible.
- Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with
persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and
temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Mid-level ridging continues over the southwestern and southeastern
CONUS. In the middle of these two features, troughing is evident
over the plains, extending down into south-central Texas. Here in
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, we remain more or less wedged
between the western ridge and the trough (which is just east of our
area), with northerly mid-level flow over the region. What this
means for us is that the better synoptic scale forcing has been
displaced further to the east, which translates to generally lower
rain chances today than previously forecast. Convective-allowing
models do still generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, but these will be driven primarily by upslope flow,
outflow boundaries, and any disturbances in the flow aloft (in other
words, forcing will be more localized and otherwise weaker in
general). As a result, the best rain chances today are for the Davis
Mountains down towards the Big Bend (40-60%). Meanwhile, chances in
Southeast New Mexico and far West Texas are in the 20-40% range,
while eastern portions of our area have a 10-30% chance. Because the
expected coverage of shower/storm activity will be less than
previously forecast (and because yesterday afternoon/evening
remained mostly dry), the Flash Flood Watch will expire at 12Z this
morning and will not be reissued. However, we will still be keeping
a close eye on localized flash flooding potential, especially
in/around the higher terrain.
A similar story unfolds Monday afternoon/evening, where the best
rain chances will be in the higher terrain (50-80%), while the
remainder of the region will have a 20-40% chance of
showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, highs remain 5-8 degrees below
normal for this time of year (upper 80s and low 90s areawide), while
lows remain closer to normal (upper 60s and low 70s).
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Overall rain chances begin to decrease across the Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau heading into the middle of the coming week. Weak
upper level ridging begins to take hold over the southern US and
subsidence will keep the higher rain chances over the western half
of the CWA. Best chances each day will remain over the Davis
Mountains and portions of southeast NM. Nailing down location and
timing of precipitation will be done in the short term as the next
day's convection will be somewhat dependent on how the previous
day's activity evolved. Highs will gradually move towards normal by
the end of the week with most locations reaching into the mid 90s
and upper 80s in the higher elevations. Overnight lows stay near or
just above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s as low level moisture
stays in place.
-Stickney
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
VFR conditions prevail. Some low clouds may develop over the eastern
Permian Basin this morning, but at this time look to stay east of
any terminals. Shower/storm chances have generally decreased today,
so have also elected not to put in any PROB30s at this time (except
at CNM, where a complex of storms may reach within the next couple
of hours). Otherwise, light southeasterly winds continue through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 88 69 89 70 / 20 20 30 10
Carlsbad 90 68 87 69 / 20 40 30 10
Dryden 91 73 90 73 / 30 30 40 20
Fort Stockton 91 69 90 70 / 30 10 50 20
Guadalupe Pass 83 64 81 65 / 40 20 40 10
Hobbs 88 66 87 68 / 30 30 30 10
Marfa 84 63 81 63 / 60 20 80 30
Midland Intl Airport 89 69 88 71 / 10 20 30 20
Odessa 88 69 88 70 / 10 20 30 20
Wink 90 69 89 70 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Andrews-
Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-
Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn
and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Lea-
Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13
Office: SJT
FXUS64 KSJT 130716
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
216 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flood Watch in Effect for West Central Texas mainly along and
south of I-20 through 1 PM Sunday.
- Moderate risk of flooding Concho Valley/Heartland/NW Hill
Country/N. Edwards Plateau tonight.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Jul
13 2025
...Flood watch is in effect mainly along and south of I-20 until
1 PM...
WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in the Concho
Valley/Heartland/N. Edwards Plateau and NW Hill Country tonight.
At 145 AM CDT, band of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall extended
from east of Abilene to Coleman to San Saba at 145 AM, with
another area of showers and thunderstorms from San Angelo to
Menard, Ft McKavett and Sonora. Precipital water amounts were
high, 1.5 to 2 inches, with the highest values to the east.
Short term models continue to generate showers and thunderstorms
into Sunday morning, particularly from Coleman and Brownwood south
to Brady, Mason and Junction. The HRRR model also builds
convection west toward San Angelo toward daybreak (which already
is seeing storms). By 9 to 10 AM this morning, most of the
rainfall is in Menard/Mason/Kimble counties, which moves south of
West Central Texas by 1 PM, ending most of the heavy rainfall
threat. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible, with local amounts of
5 to 8 inches.
This afternoon heating, and could produce a quick 1/2 inch of
rainfall, but flood threat is significantly diminished. A few
showers may still possible overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Upper ridging and subsidence will gradually build in from the west
this week, but West Central Texas will still be in a weak trough
aloft. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday into
Wednesday. As the atmosphere will be slightly tropical, there
could be locally heavy downpours, but no organized flooding
likely. Mainly dry conditions expected by Thursday. High
Temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 90s will still be in a
weak trough aloft. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday
into Wednesday. As the atmosphere will be slightly tropical,
there could be locally heavy downpours, but no organized flooding
likely. Mainly dry conditions expected by Thursday. High
Temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 90s
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Showers/thunderstorms will be affecting terminals except KABI into
mid morning Sunday. Brief IFR visibilities in heavy rainfall
possible, particularly at KBBD and KJCT. MVFR ceiling return
overnight, lifting to VFR mid/late morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 71 89 73 / 40 20 40 10
San Angelo 86 69 88 71 / 60 30 40 10
Junction 83 69 88 70 / 70 40 30 10
Brownwood 84 69 88 71 / 60 30 30 10
Sweetwater 89 69 90 72 / 30 20 40 10
Ozona 86 68 87 70 / 50 40 40 20
Brady 81 69 86 70 / 70 40 30 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-
Taylor-Tom Green.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04
Office: FWD
FXUS64 KFWD 131034
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pockets of heavy rain could result in Flash Flooding through
Sunday evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of
North and Central Texas through 7 PM.
- Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of
the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The potential for flash flooding will continue across North and
Central Texas today. There are two main areas of convection
ongoing this morning: (1) a thunderstorm complex in southeast
Oklahoma and (2) the remnants of the complex of storms that moved
through Lampasas earlier. At it's peak, rain rates in the Central
Texas complex reached 2 to 4 inches/hr. This, combined with slow
storm motions, led to very rapid accumulations with a few gauges
reporting rain totals of 4 to 8 inches over the last 6 hours. The
increased soil saturation from this morning's rainfall has
significantly reduced the infiltration capacity of the soil and
thus increased the potential for rapid surface runoff with any
additional rainfall. Translation: Flood issues will emerge VERY
quickly with any additional rain that falls. This means that even
hourly rainfall rates as low as 0.25-0.75"/hr can and will pose a
risk for flooding. The main change made with this morning's
forecast update has been to increase PoPs primarily across Central
Texas through this afternoon as the embedded vorticity maxima
continues to slowly pivot across the region.
12
Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/
A moist and unstable airmass remains entrenched across North and
Central Texas this morning, as the upper trough drifting slowly
eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma drags a small vorticity max
across Central Texas. These features are embedded within a
stagnant and weakly diffluent upper-level flow pattern, situated
between broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and the Southeast
U.S. The resulting col region aloft, augmented by the quasi-
stationary trough over the Central Plains, continues to support
deep-layer ascent across a saturated column.
This setup will sustain the ongoing wet and unsettled pattern
through the forecast period with periods of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding remaining the primary concern through early
Sunday evening. Recent GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis depict a broad moisture plume draped across North and
Central Texas with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0
inch range, above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. These
values are consistent with the latest HREF and NBM probabilistic
guidance, which continue to advertise high-end moisture anomalies.
The slow-moving thunderstorm complex that has developed across
western Central Texas (near Lampasas, Mills, and Hamilton
counties) over the past few hours is expected to continue to
gradually shift east and northeast across the region through the
remainder of the overnight period, supported by persistent low-
level WAA and the mid-level perturbation embedded in the flow
aloft. While surface-based instability will be limited during the
early morning hours, elevated instability (750-1500 J/kg) will
support continued convective redevelopment, particularly south of
the I-20 corridor where convergence remains maximized.
Rainfall rates will vary locally, but any slow-moving or training
convection will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a
short period, with localized amounts in excess of 4-5 inches possible.
Given the already saturated soils in portions of North and
Central Texas, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM
Sunday for areas mainly and along and west of I-35, including the
DFW Metroplex and the I-35 corridor southward to Temple and Waco.
The watch has been cancelled for the following locations where the
expected additional rainfall totals are now below 1 inch: Young,
Jack, Montague and Cooke.
The relative lull in activity occurring across North Texas right
now is expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours as early
evening convection has stabilized the lower troposphere. However,
as the vort max continues to progress across Central Texas we
could begin to see convective activity spreading towards the I-20
corridor before daybreak, in addition to redevelopment in eastern
North Texas, closer to the favorable forcing of the main upper
trough. Scattered thunderstorms could develop again this
afternoon, particularly along remnant outflow boundaries and
differential heating zones. With the weak mid-level low progged to
be lingering nearby, most of the CAMs support renewed activity
favoring Central and East Texas, with the potential for localized
training storms once again. Weak mid-level winds will continue to
promote slow storm motions, maintaining a flash flooding risk into
the early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated though
isolated gusty downburst winds and even a few isolated instances
of small hail cannot be completely ruled out.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/
/Monday through Saturday/
Lingering moisture and weak ascent may continue to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. By
Monday evening, the broad upper-level trough should finally begin
to lift northeastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley,
leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across most of our
forecast area. Though Tuesday was previously anticipated to be the
beginning of our transition towards a more typical mid-July
pattern, the mid-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. is
now not likely to build as strongly westward given the lingering
influence of the late weekend troughing which may still be
located to our north as we head into mid-week. Despite this
forecast shift, there should still be a decrease in rain chances
while high temperatures warm closer to seasonal averages.
Continued surface dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index
values into the triple digits next week, with peak values in the
100-105 degree range especially along and east of I-35. Ensemble
guidance shows general agreement in the ridge maintaining control
through the end of the week, though some signs of subtle weakness
aloft could allow for isolated sea breeze-driven showers or storms
to reach our southeastern counties by late Friday and into next
weekend. Confidence remains low in the scenario for now. Otherwise,
a hot and increasingly dry pattern will dominate through the end
of the forecast period, typical for mid-July in Texas.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Rain and occasional embedded thunderstorms will continue at KACT
for a few more hours before dissipating mid to late morning.
Conditions have been fairly quiet across the Metroplex, though a
few rain showers have developed in the past hour. Will indicate
VCSH for this morning, but hold off on TS until the atmosphere
destabilizes late this afternoon. Even then, convective coverage
may remain isolated, so will just include a few hours of VCTS at
all areas from 23Z until 03Z. One additional round of convection
will then occur on Monday prior to the upper level system moving
away, but it would be just beyond this forecast cycle. Otherwise,
sporadic MVFR cigs this morning should scatter by midday.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested today within the
Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 73 90 75 93 / 50 30 30 5 10
Waco 88 73 89 74 91 / 60 30 20 5 5
Paris 85 70 88 72 91 / 70 40 40 10 20
Denton 88 72 91 73 93 / 50 30 40 5 20
McKinney 87 73 89 74 93 / 50 40 40 5 10
Dallas 88 73 90 75 94 / 50 30 30 5 10
Terrell 88 73 89 73 93 / 60 40 30 5 10
Corsicana 90 74 92 75 94 / 60 30 30 5 10
Temple 90 72 91 73 92 / 60 30 20 5 10
Mineral Wells 88 71 91 73 93 / 40 30 40 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ093-094-102>104-115>119-
129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
