tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 280507
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1107 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
* Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures
persist through the Holiday weekend.
* Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday
morning. A few snowflakes are possible early Saturday.
* Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system
next Tuesday that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation
regime to the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Surface high pressure continues to dominate the forecast
following the passage of a cold front a few days ago. As such,
dry air and cooler temperatures have followed. Lows on Friday
morning will be at or below freezing in most locations due to
optimal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will quickly
rebound throughout Friday, reaching into the 40s and 50s during
the afternoon.
The large upper trough that has brought this week's weather will
begin to leave the area Friday, and with it, high pressure.
Temperatures will still continue to be cool Saturday morning, but
a new shortwave trough will have begun approaching the region.
Warm advection will then commence ahead of this new wave with
plenty of moisture transport above 925 mb. As this moisture
arrives, isentropic lift above the leftover, cool air mass will
begin to produce precipitation Saturday morning. Some models show
the SFC - 700 mb profile below freezing, which would support the
potential for a few snowflakes early Saturday morning. However,
the air beneath 850 mb - 925 mb will be very dry with dew point
depressions above 10 C. If this is the case Saturday,
precipitation will struggle to reach the ground for several hours
and would limit the potential for any accumulation. Eventually
the warm advection will take over, and any wet-bulbing that takes
place will be overcome with rain taking over through Saturday.
A cold front will sweep into the region from the northwest
throughout the day Sunday, pushing rain to our south. GEFS
ensembles are in good agreement that the front will stall over
central MS. Monday looks dry, but another wave will then approach
from the west, amplifying Monday and will bring precipitation
back to the forecast again.
Although there were significant uncertainties within the past
several forecast periods, ensembles are beginning to come into
agreement regarding both the frontal passage and the upper
pattern for the middle of next week. As the new shortwave reaches
the Mid-South, the stalled boundary to our south will begin to
organize into a surface low. Moisture will then overrun a newly-
formed warm front into an airmass which is expected to have a
temperature profile supportive of wintry weather. The
complications in the forecast now exist at the mesoscale,
particularly on how far north above-freezing temperatures in the
SFC-850 mb layer will make it. This transition line from
snow/sleet/freezing rain to just rain differs by hundreds of
miles within ensemble members, making it difficult to judge who,
if anybody, would receive impacts from wintry precipitation next
week. Therefore, this forecast is still riddled with
uncertainties regarding exact impacts but some form of
precipitation is expected Tuesday.
The main surface low will exit the region late Tuesday and into
Wednesday morning, but the forecast is still a mixed bag
regarding how long precipitation will abate. Some ensemble
members keep producing QPF over the region Wednesday while others
wait until dry the region out through the end of next week.
However, temperatures are expected to generally remain above
freezing, limiting the potential for impactful wintry
precipitation after Tuesday through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR. High pressure drifting to the east over the Midsouth will
result in light winds tonight, veering east to southeast tomorrow
and tomorrow night. Light rain associated with a midlevel cloud
deck(6-8k ft) will approach MEM around 29/12Z and JBR after
29/06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period.
Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the
area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 280519
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
- Cooler temperatures will persist through Friday night with
highs mainly in the 40s and lows the next two nights mainly in
the 20s.
- Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend with slightly
warmer temperatures. Precipitation chances will persist into
early next week, with some possibility of light snow Monday
night and early Tuesday.
- Temperatures throughout most of next week will remain largely
below seasonal norms. There will be multiple nights with
subfreezing temperatures across the bulk of Middle Tennessee.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Clear skies means tonight will be bitterly cold across Middle
Tennessee. Lows tonight will be well below freezing: around the 20s
across the area but in the low 20s and flirting with the teens east
of I-65. Dry conditions will prevail into the start of the weekend,
with temperatures well below freezing overnight and in the 40s and
50s during the day Friday and Saturday.
A trough will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend,
bringing rain chances to middle Tennessee. Saturday afternoon looks
to be the timeframe rain will start in our NW areas, moving east
overnight into Sunday. Looking at specifics, current guidance has
significantly dropped over the last 24 hours, to where now there is
a mere <20% chance of over half an inch of QPF. This trough will
bring another shot of cold air as we enter the first few weeks of
December.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
The overall pattern will remain on the active side, with medium
chances for precipitation through the extended. Guidance is saying
yes it looks like there will be another trough in the first week of
December that comes through. However, the specifics, like placement,
type, and timing, remain inconsistent from run to run. Things have
not gotten clearer over the past 24 hours as hoped, and continued to
be inconsistent. So while this is something to watch as we get
closer in time, it's a bit hard to say anything with certainty right
now. It does look like there is a chance for wintry precipitation
next week, a small one, but again, too inconsistent to say anything
right now. Last night, the area receiving a dusting of snow was much
larger and tonight it is in a totally different area and much
smaller. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more clear in the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet conditions and
mostly clear skies. Northerly winds under 5 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 27 45 28 52 / 0 0 0 30
Clarksville 25 43 26 48 / 0 0 0 60
Crossville 20 39 21 45 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 25 47 26 51 / 0 0 0 20
Cookeville 22 40 23 48 / 0 0 0 10
Jamestown 22 38 22 47 / 0 0 0 10
Lawrenceburg 24 46 26 51 / 0 0 0 10
Murfreesboro 23 45 25 51 / 0 0 0 10
Waverly 25 44 28 47 / 0 0 0 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 280644
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Dry and colder weather continues through Saturday.
- A system will bring a return of rain chances and gusty winds for
the mountains and foothills Saturday night into Sunday. Higher
elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix early Sunday and
again Sunday night.
- Another system will bring rain to the area Monday night through
Tuesday. Some northeastern mountain areas may see initial wintry
mix with precipitation ending as light snow Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
Currently early Friday morning, troughing is centered to our east
with broad Canadian high pressure expanding into the region. Dry
conditions are expected this afternoon, with just a light breeze
as mixing heights in excess of 4kft tap into weak H85 flow near
15-20kts. Stronger subsidence will provide better radiational
cooling conditions with temperatures dropping well into the 20s
and even possibly teens for some in the northeast tonight.
Focus will then shift towards a deepening shortwave and
developing system expected to eject out of the Rockies for
Saturday. This system is expected to track towards the Great
Lakes throughout the day. Based on the latest data, its 850mb jet
is expected to increase to above 40 kts with the surface high to
our east helping to create a stronger MSLP gradient along the
mountains. Overall, the direction of this flow is a bit westerly
for significant mountain waves, but the other factors still
suggest some enhancement. Latest NAM gudiance suggest gusts
between 45 to 55 mph possible between 00Z-18Z Sunday. A wind
product may need to be considered with future forecast packages.
As precipitation moves into the region with this system after 06Z
Sunday, most sources suggest portions of the northeastern
mountains and possibly southwest Virginia to be near or below
freezing. With a warm nose aloft due to the strong 850flow, this
could provide a period of mixed precipitation, including freezing
rain. However, WAA is likely to quickly warm temperatures above
freezing soon after onset, yielding minimal impact. This will then
give way to a cold rain throughout the day on Sunday. By Sunday
evening, CAA returns, but moisture will exit rather quickly. A
brief period of light snow is possible in the higher elevations.
Another area of high pressure to the north will keep the region cool
and largely dry on Monday with focus then turning towards our
southwest. Troughing is expected to deepen again as it ejects out of
the Rockies with another area of low pressure expected to deepen
along the northern Gulf. This system will then progress northeast
with the recent high pressure then becoming centered over New
England. The high pressure over the northeast will give a cold air
damming setup just to our east as evidenced by surface troughing.
With this system tracking to our south and east, the question of
precipitation types will arise again, especially late Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. The latest consensus largely keeps
freezing low-level temperatures to our east, but some sources do
show this for our northeastern mountains. With 850mb temperatures
ranging from 4 to 8 degrees Celsius, a strong warm nose will exist
once again, likely keeping most places above freezing below this
level. Still, some periods of mixed precipitation are possible in
the mountains before the area warms. During the day on Tuesday,
this system tracks up the Atlantic Coast with stronger
northwesterly flow and CAA presenting chances for a changeover to
light snow in the evening. This would be more prominent along the
mountains but still possible elsewhere, depending on how long
moisture lingers.
High pressure will provide cool and drier conditions on Wednesday.
Late in the week, additional troughing will provide another return
of precipitation chances with a lot of uncertainty in any details.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
VFR conditions and northwest winds between 5 to 10 kts will
prevail through the period. Some gusts to around 20kts will be
possible at TRI this afternoon due to a stronger pressure gradient
in closer proximity of a departing surface low over New England.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 27 50 41 / 0 0 0 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 23 49 37 / 0 0 0 60
Oak Ridge, TN 42 23 48 36 / 0 0 0 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 20 48 33 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
