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Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 071745
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- There is a 30-50% chance of rain showers in north Mississippi
  this afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures will turn cooler early in the work week. Highs will
  remain in the 40s Monday, but moderate through Thursday.

- An Arctic air mass will move into the Midsouth next weekend. Saturday
  morning lows are expected to be in the teens with highs in the
  upper 20s to middle 30s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak cold front will move across the Midsouth this afternoon.
A surface low will develop along the front as it approaches the
Gulf Coast and an inverted trough associated with the low will
result in a 30-50% chance of rain showers this afternoon and
evening across northeast Mississippi.

The current CONUS upper air pattern features a broad deep trough
across the eastern two thirds of the Nation.  Its axis is
oriented from the Great Lakes into South Texas.  Farther west a
weak ridge is centered over California, Washington and Oregon.
This general pattern will slowly shift to the east over the next
36 to 48 hours resulting in northwest flow across the Midsouth.
During the same timeframe, at the surface, high pressure
currently over the Northern Plains will shift over the northern
Ohio Valley and a 1006mb surface low will move into northern
Minnesota. The Midsouth will be mostly influenced by the southern
extent of the surface high resulting in dry conditions early next
week.  High temperatures Monday will be in the 40s with a warming
trend through Thursday.

Wednesday into Thursday the surface low will deepen as it tracks
across the Great Lakes.  A series of cold fronts will sweep
across the Midsouth late Wednesday into Thursday.  Moisture ahead
of these features will be limited, so any chance of rainfall will
remain low(less than 25%) and any accumulation will be less than
a few hundredths of an inch. Cooler conditions return Thursday
with high temperatures by Friday mostly in the middle 30s to
middle 40s. Conditions look frigid next weekend.  Saturday is
expected to be the coldest day, featuring morning lows in the
teens to low 20s and highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Primary concern over the next 24 to 30 hours remains CIGs. At
midday, an area of VFR was noted over northeast AR. This will
likely close down by mid/late afternoon with the approach of a
midlevel shortwave and formation of lower cloud decks.

An IFR cloud deck over southern MO will likely expand southward
overnight, with CIGs over the Midsouth likely near the IFR/MVFR
threshold. Frontal depth and cloud base height will increase on
Monday, with VFR not out of the question at JBR and MEM in the
afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/evening and again Thursday, dry conditions
are expected.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS



Office: OHX FXUS64 KOHX 071718 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Low chances for light rain Sunday night. A few snowflakes possible late night as a cold front passes. No accumulations expected. - Next rain chance Wednesday night through Friday, possibly ending with some light snow showers. - Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving late week with frigid temperatures next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Stratus once again is making today another overcast day. I'm not sure we will be in the 50s for highs today with all the cloud cover if it persists. Some locations on the plateau have had sunshine until very recently, which makes me think that some spots that have seen more sun before the clouds came in could reach the low 50s today. The rest of us will remain in the 40s. Some rain chances will begin to impact Middle Tennessee in the evening hours, as a cold front moves in and pulls in just enough moisture to give us some rain, but not much. QPF amounts look pretty dry, with guidance suggesting probabilities for over a tenth of an inch of precipitation are slim (<20%). Overnight into Monday morning, this rain will changeover into flurries, but no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 After our dreary weekend, high pressure will build in through Wednesday morning, driving temperatures into the 50s for highs. This story changes mid-week, as a trough is expected to dig south and bring more rain chances to Middle Tennessee. Precipitation amounts with this system once again do not look like much in our area, with better chances for a wetting rain in the eastern part of the state. One notable thing is an arctic air mass from close to the arctic circle will be behind another cold front that will move through at the end of the week. We're still refining exacts with how cold we will get but it looks like this could be our first widespread run at the teens for lows this season. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Morning fog has lifting to a IFR/LIFR cigs for all western terminals. We will see this low cloud deck rise some as we head through the afternoon but it will likely remain in MVFR. KCSV and KSRB will be VFR this afternoon but low cigs return for all terminals this evening and continue to lower overnight into IFR. Low chance for a few light showers towards daybreak with the best chances over the Plateau. Light southerly winds will turn northerly this afternoon up to 5 knots. Winds will increase up to 10 knots overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 51 37 43 28 / 10 20 10 0 Clarksville 49 35 41 27 / 10 20 0 0 Crossville 50 35 40 23 / 0 30 10 0 Columbia 49 37 43 26 / 0 20 0 0 Cookeville 50 35 40 26 / 0 30 10 0 Jamestown 49 33 38 24 / 0 40 20 0 Lawrenceburg 49 37 43 26 / 0 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 49 38 43 26 / 0 20 10 0 Waverly 47 34 42 27 / 10 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX FXUS64 KMRX 071749 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1249 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Overnight expect precipitation to move in. Light snow accumulations are expected, primarily across the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. - A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late tonight into Monday. The Monday morning commute in these counties could be impacted by accumulating snow, or reduced visibilities from falling snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Primary forcing for precipitation will be associated with a midlevel shortwave trough, with model guidance showing little in the way of organized surface forcing. Therefore, precipitation amounts are expected to remain light throughout the event. Measurable precipitation should start generally between sunset and midnight as the column slowly moistens closer to the surface. By early Monday morning, cold air advection strengthens behind a weak low-level trough and attendant surface cold front, resulting in falling temperatures and a transition to snow across northern portions of the forecast area. This transition will be most notable in southwest Virginia and the eastern Tennessee mountains. Outside of the highest terrain, accumulations will be fairly limited. In the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee, persistent northwest flow in the wake of the shortwave may yield localized accumulations of 1–3 inches through Monday evening, primarily along mountain peaks near the North Carolina border. While much of the counties look to see snowfall totals technically remain below Advisory criteria, have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory since the ridge lines could see up to 3 inches... In addition the Monday morning commute could very much be impacted as light to (possibly at times) moderate snow is coming down. This is a very low end advisory, but Monday morning driving conditions are the main concern with this event. A generally zonal flow regime is anticipated through midweek, supporting modest warming with highs reaching the 50s by Wednesday. The next synoptic system approaches late in the week, with temperatures initially mild ahead of the front, followed by a pronounced cold advection behind the low and frontal passage Thursday into Friday. A much colder air mass is forecast to settle in for the weekend, with morning lows potentially in the teens and daytime highs limited to the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Low confidence forecast. Clouds are extremely stubborn to clear out of KCHA, but should start to break up in the next couple of hours. Cold rain moves in overnight and will likely drop conditions down below MVFR categories, but low confidence on how far they drop with some guidance going to VLIFR and others barely dipping below MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 50 29 52 / 40 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 44 28 50 / 40 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 45 27 48 / 30 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 40 27 44 / 50 80 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for Johnson- Southeast Carter-Unicoi. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for Russell- Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99