Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 091133
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025
- Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs near
normal by Wednesday.
- Colder air will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Highs
both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.
- Low chance (20-30%) for rain Saturday afternoon and night ahead
of the coldest air of the season.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025
00Z upper air analysis continues to show an upper-level ridge
along the West Coast of the United States while an upper-level
trough axis persists over the Central and Eastern U.S. Surface
analysis this evening places a 1026 mb surface high over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. GOES Night/Fog product shows low
stratus over North Mississippi beginning to show signs of
redeveloping back north overnight. Temperatures as of 9 PM CST
are predominantly in the 30s areawide.
A gradual warming trend is expected into Wednesday as the surface
high moves east and southerly winds return on the backside of
high pressure. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s for
Tuesday and into the 50s for Wednesday. This warmup will be short-
lived as another cold front will drop into the region Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. This will bring a slight cool
down to the area for Thursday with the cooler air mass retreating
back north for Friday.
Long-range deterministic and ensemble solutions now indicate the
coldest air of the season will arrive across the Mid-South late
this weekend into early next week behind a strong arctic cold
front. Models have trended slightly warmer over the past 24-
48 hrs as the coldest air is expected to remain over portions of
the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley.
Ahead of this arctic cold front, there is a low chance (20-30%)
for overrunning precipitation to develop across the Mid-South
from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Most of this
precipitation is anticipated to fall as light rain with
confidence lower for light wintry precipitation as precipitation
departs and the coldest air arrives for late weekend into early
next week. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be mostly in the
20s, especially along and north of the TN/MS border. Highs on
Sunday will range from the 30s north to the lower 40s southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
The MVFR deck covering MEM and TUP continues to move slowly north
and has reached MKL. An increase in mixing by this afternoon will
help to clear out and break up the deck with VFR conditions expected
to return by mid-afternoon (moderate confidence). Light SSW winds
will increase and become gusty this afternoon, continuing into
tonight. There is high confidence that LLWS will increase
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025
No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Dry conditions and light 20ft winds
will continue through the remainder of the period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 091708
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
- Look for a brief warm up and breezy conditions today and
Wednesday.
- Very low chance for light rain/snow on the Upper Cumberland
Wednesday night behind our next frontal passage. Stay tuned for
the latest.
- Coldest air of the season expected Sunday night. Lows in the
teens and upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Oh, look at that. The sun does still exist. If you live in Middle
TN, you were starting to question it. Clouds have finally thinned
out and the sun made its grand reappearance this morning. We still
have some high clouds around, and while we had a chilly start to the
day, southerly flow will allow the sun to warm us up today and
tomorrow. In fact tomorrow, we might actually climb back above
seasonal normals. The problem with all of this, the warmup is ahead
of a cold front that is expected to swing through here tomorrow and
the surface pressure gradient will tighten up ahead of the front.
That means south to southwest winds are going to be gusty both days,
so it may not feel quite as warm as it otherwise would. Models are
mostly dry with this frontal passage on Wednesday. NBM is
spitting out some low rain chances, but I'm looking at forecast
soundings from the GFS and NAM and wondering whether or not the
Upper Cumberland will have to worry about orographic lifting
tomorrow night. This could lead to snow accumulation with both of
these models suggesting the perfect wind fetch and soundings that
are saturated deeply enough (-8 to -10C is plenty cold enough for
ice crystal formation on the Plateau). I'd put this likelihood at
20% or less, but we'll monitor this over the next 24 hours and
see where things stand at this time tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
The bigger story of this forecast package is probably going to be
the next cold front due in here Saturday night and the CP airmass
that will follow. Rain chances have increased to medium Saturday
evening ahead of the front and the question will be whether the cold
air will match up with any precipitation. Right now, I'd say there's
a low chance of this occurring on the Upper Cumberland Plateau.
Everyone else looks all liquidy. Behind the front, Canada will be
sending its best cold air mass and by Monday morning, we're in for
some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far. NBM backed
off on the extreme-ness of these temperatures in the last couple of
runs, but it still looks like upper teens and low 20s for everyone
as the kids wait for the bus Monday morning. Current NBM probs
suggest a 50-70% chance of morning lows in the teens area-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
The sun has finally made an appearance over middle TN and clouds
have finally become VFR and will stay that way for the TAF
period. Winds will be S to SW and gusty 20 to 25 kts. Expect LLWS
at 2000 FT overnight. A LLJ will swing through overnight that
could wring some moisture out over the northeast plateau. This
should not affect any terminal locations so have not included any
precipitation or increase in clouds or decrease VIS for CSV or
SRB.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 51 39 55 29 / 0 10 10 0
Clarksville 50 39 52 27 / 0 10 20 0
Crossville 46 34 48 24 / 0 0 10 0
Columbia 49 37 56 27 / 0 0 10 0
Cookeville 46 35 51 27 / 0 0 20 0
Jamestown 46 35 48 25 / 0 10 20 10
Lawrenceburg 49 37 56 26 / 0 0 10 0
Murfreesboro 49 37 55 27 / 0 0 10 0
Waverly 48 38 53 27 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....12
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 091109 AAA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
- Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold
front later Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible
behind the system early Thursday.
- Another warm-up expected late week with low chances of
precipitation around, primarily for the north.
- Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend
with sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills
in the teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
Later today will provide a nice break from precipitation and
the drawn out dreary overcast conditions, as cloud cover will
decrease. High pressure will dominate the southeast, with
temperatures on the incline today and tomorrow.
Conditions change again later Wednesday when a low center
crossing southern Michigan brings a cold front to the area. Before
that arrives, a strong westerly jet will develop Wednesday
morning. Based on the flow direction, this isn't ideal for a
mountainwave set-up. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest for
much of the forecast area Wednesday. A mostly rain with some snow
mix, will transition to mostly snow Thursday morning. NW flow
behind the storm system and front may bring light accumulations to
the Southern Appalachians and southwest Virginia. Nothing more
than an inch and a half, currently.
A short cool-down can be expected Thursday with drier conditions
throughout the day and decreasing cloud cover. However,
precipitation from a weak system will bring increased chances to
northern parts of the CWA. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising
which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and
Saturday.
Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to
more precipitation due to potential southern and northern stream
systems colliding, but the one thing models can see and agree on,
is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday.
Strong high pressure is expected to barrel its way through,
originating from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures
there have been in the 50s below at night, but we will not see
that here.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
MVFR cigs will persist at TRI for most of the morning, becoming
scattered by the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are foreast.
Near the end of the TAF period, a strong inversion develops with a
LLJ near 2 kft, suggesting LLWS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 35 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 36 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 53 30 / 0 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 49 29 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
