Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 071201
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
601 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
- Dense fog is expected early Sunday morning across the Midsouth. Visibility
less than one-quarter mile will accompany any fog.
- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal
highs in the 50s on Sunday.
- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning
temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, temperatures
will moderate back into the 50s, ahead of a cold front
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Evening upper air analysis shows a longwave trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through West Texas
with an upper-level ridge along the U.S. West Coast. GOES
nighttime fog product and regional METAR observations show an
area of low stratus along the I-20 corridor in Mississippi and
another area mostly along and north of I-40 in western and
central Arkansas. Evening surface observations show near
saturation across most sites as of 11 PM with localized reduced
visibility scattered across the forecast area. Latest short-term
and ensemble guidance indicates dense fog and low stratus are
expected to develop overnight especially south of I-40. A Dense
Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of east Arkansas and
all of North Mississippi through 10 AM CST. Conditions will be
monitored overnight for any potential expansion into West
Tennessee.
Short-term model trends continue to indicate a surface low over
West Texas moving along the Gulf Coast while a cold front north
of I-70 in Missouri and Kansas will move south into the region on
Sunday. There is a low chance (20-30%) of rain showers Sunday
afternoon and evening with most areas remaining dry due to
limited moisture accompanying the front. Wintry precipitation
remains very low (10% or less) across northwest Tennessee Sunday
night as colder air is expected to lag behind the precipitation
that will be exiting into middle Kentucky and Tennessee. Cold
high pressure will build in on Monday with highs expected to
surpass the 40s.
Temperatures are expected to moderate for the middle of next week
back into the 50s as high pressure moves east as southerly return
flow develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Another cold
front will bring a low chance (20-30%) for rain showers to areas
east of the Mississippi River late next week. Colder arctic air
behind this latter system will result in highs in the 30s with
lows in the teens to lower 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Expect a mix of flight rules to begin this TAF cycle. IFR CIGs
and/or VSBYs will be the rule this morning. Dense fog is likely
(greater than 50% chance) at MKL and MEM in the short term, with
less confidence at JBR and TUP. Nonetheless, LIFR CIGs and VSBYs
were added in a tempo group for highest confidence locations. Hi-
res guidance suggests that MEM and MKL could see dense fog for an
extended period this morning. CIGs will be slow to lift this
afternoon as a cold front moves through the Mid-South from the
northwest. A sharp wind shift will occur by late afternoon at all
sites.
TUP will have the best chance of SHRAs this evening with the
frontal passage. The rest of the sites will see dry conditions
and moderate north winds through the end of the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Midsouth again early
Sunday. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to
scattered
showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected through midweek.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 071718
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Low chances for light rain Sunday night. A few snowflakes
possible late night as a cold front passes. No accumulations
expected.
- Next rain chance Wednesday night through Friday, possibly ending
with some light snow showers.
- Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving
late week with frigid temperatures next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Stratus once again is making today another overcast day. I'm not
sure we will be in the 50s for highs today with all the cloud cover
if it persists. Some locations on the plateau have had sunshine
until very recently, which makes me think that some spots that have
seen more sun before the clouds came in could reach the low 50s
today. The rest of us will remain in the 40s. Some rain chances will
begin to impact Middle Tennessee in the evening hours, as a cold
front moves in and pulls in just enough moisture to give us some
rain, but not much. QPF amounts look pretty dry, with guidance
suggesting probabilities for over a tenth of an inch of
precipitation are slim (<20%). Overnight into Monday morning, this
rain will changeover into flurries, but no accumulation is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
After our dreary weekend, high pressure will build in through
Wednesday morning, driving temperatures into the 50s for highs. This
story changes mid-week, as a trough is expected to dig south and
bring more rain chances to Middle Tennessee. Precipitation amounts
with this system once again do not look like much in our area, with
better chances for a wetting rain in the eastern part of the state.
One notable thing is an arctic air mass from close to the arctic
circle will be behind another cold front that will move through at
the end of the week. We're still refining exacts with how cold we
will get but it looks like this could be our first widespread run at
the teens for lows this season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Morning fog has lifting to a IFR/LIFR cigs for all western
terminals. We will see this low cloud deck rise some as we head
through the afternoon but it will likely remain in MVFR. KCSV and
KSRB will be VFR this afternoon but low cigs return for all
terminals this evening and continue to lower overnight into IFR.
Low chance for a few light showers towards daybreak with the best
chances over the Plateau. Light southerly winds will turn
northerly this afternoon up to 5 knots. Winds will increase up to
10 knots overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 51 37 43 28 / 10 20 10 0
Clarksville 49 35 41 27 / 10 20 0 0
Crossville 50 35 40 23 / 0 30 10 0
Columbia 49 37 43 26 / 0 20 0 0
Cookeville 50 35 40 26 / 0 30 10 0
Jamestown 49 33 38 24 / 0 40 20 0
Lawrenceburg 49 37 43 26 / 0 20 0 0
Murfreesboro 49 38 43 26 / 0 20 10 0
Waverly 47 34 42 27 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 071127
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.
- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
Fog has developed in parts of the area, and lowered visibilities are
expected to expand over the next few hours in southern sections.
Northern sections are likely to have more cloud cover based on
satellite trends, and should have less fog. With forecast lows in
the lower 30s to upper 20s, this could be freezing fog that could
cause some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Through the day,
high and midlevel clouds will be increasing ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough that will bring rain in the evening.
Forcing for this precipitation will be driven mainly by a midlevel
shortwave trough, but no strong surface level forcing is depicted by
the models. Therefore, any precip should be fairly light over the
area. Measurable precip begins the area between 00Z and midnight as
the column moistens from the top down. By early Monday morning, cold
air advection ramps up and temperatures drop behind the low level
trough and a weak surface cold front, allowing for a transition to
snow for northern parts of our area. This will be mainly in
southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains, but outside the highest
elevations, any snow accumulations will be light and not likely to
be impactful. For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow
behind this shortwave that persists through Monday could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening, mainly along the
peaks of the mountains near the NC border. Amounts should stay under
Advisory criteria for populated areas.
Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere is expected through
the middle of the week, with temperatures warming a little (into the
50s for Wednesday) before our next system moves in towards the end
of the week. Temperatures appear to be fairly warm on the front end
with a big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move
through Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures
behind the front for the upcoming weekend, possibly dropping into
the teens for the weekend mornings with highs in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
Dense freezing fog has developed at all 3 sites with aviation
conditions to LIFR or less. This is expected to persist for the
next couple of hours with improvements to IFR then MVFR ceilings
by later this morning. Currently, TRI is expected to improve back
to VFR the fastest with CHA and TYS possibly not recovering until
early afternoon. Then later this evening, MVFR ceilings will
likely move back into the area from the south and west as chances
for rain increase with CHA and TYS forecast to drop again. Winds
will be light and variable at all sites through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 41 48 29 / 10 40 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 39 43 28 / 10 40 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 50 38 44 26 / 10 40 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 35 38 26 / 10 50 60 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
Clay.
TN...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-
Union-West Polk.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
