Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 022346 AAA
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
546 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
- Widespread fog and areas of frost are expected to develop late
tonight into Monday morning, with temperatures falling into the
low to mid 30s.
- A warming trend will follow, with high temperatures returning to
the low to mid 70s by late week.
- Successive cold fronts will bring periods of rain, first on
Friday and again late in the weekend; no severe weather is
expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Water vapor imagery reveals a deep upper low pressure system over
the Tennessee River Valley. Lingering low-level stratus persists
over portions of west Tennessee, but is slowly thinning out.
Temperatures are mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s with a
weak northerly wind at the surface.
Below normal temperatures will persist through Monday as cool
surface high pressure remains in place. Fog and frost are
anticipated Monday morning as temperatures fall into the low to
mid 30s. Upper level flow will remain zonal through midweek and
become slightly amplified by week's end. Temperatures will
gradually warm each day and peak in the low to mid 70s by late
week.
A mid level trough and surface cold front will move into the
middle Mississippi Valley late Thursday and move into the Mid-
South on Friday. Return flow ahead of the front will be modest
across the region, with dewpoints peaking in the mid to upper
50s. LREF guidance shows limited (20-30%) overlap of key
ingredients MUCAPE > 500 J/kg, MUCIN < 25 J/kg, and bulk shear >
30 knots. This indicates a disorganized storm mode with a limited
severe threat. We will continue to monitor how these parameters
evolve as mesoscale details become clearer.
A broader and deeper trough will drop down across the Central
Plains on Saturday. A surface low will pivot across the Great
Lakes Region and drag another cold front across the region on
Saturday night into Sunday. Ensemble guidance again shows poor
overlap (10-20%) for severe weather ingredients. The airmass
recovery will be limited by the previous day's frontal passage.
Nonetheless, the front will bring another shot of rainfall and
cooler temperatures to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Primary concern remains radiational fog potential overnight. 22Z
NBM, 12Z HREF and 22Z HRRR depict LIFR VIS over much of the area,
mainly along and east of the MS River. Confidence is fairly high
regarding LIFR VIS potential at MKL and TUP after 06Z.
For MEM, the aforementioned guidance showed good agreement in the
depiction of LIFR VIS over Shelby County, outside of the Memphis
urban core. With potential LIFR VIS in the MEM vicinity, have
opted to carry a TEMPO for BCFG in the MEM TAF overnight. Given
warm water temperatures of the MS River and NW MS lakes, wouldn't
be surprised if some stratus over these bodies of water edges over
the field, aided by light SW flow off the deck.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Below normal temperatures will persist through Monday with a
gradual warming trend through the end of the week. Minimum
relative humidity values will range between 40 to 50 percent
through much of next week as temperatures rebound back into the
70s. A pair of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South Friday
and then again this weekend, bringing wetting rain back to the
region.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 022325
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
525 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
- Rain tapering off west to east this Sunday afternoon and
evening.
- Areas of dense fog tonight into Monday morning.
- Dry most of the week. Warming up a little.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Late Sunday morning, low pressure circulation was evident on
satellite loops over southwest Middle Tennessee. This system was
responsible for the wet, gloomy wx. The low pressure will drift
southeast of our area by this evening, allowing rain to taper off,
or at least decrease to patchy drizzle. Most areas west of the
Plateau will get at least a few glimpses of sunshine this
afternoon. Still, it will be chilly with temperatures warming to
the mid 50s at best.
Surface high pressure will slide in overnight giving us a very
favorable setup for fog. Persistent low clouds may preclude dense
fog in some areas, but even partial clearing will result in rapid
formation of dense fog with very poor visibilities this evening
and overnight, and these impacts will continue through Monday
morning rush hour. Conditions will be quite chilly overnight with
lows mostly mid to upper 30s.
After low clouds and fog break up mid morning, Monday will turn
out pretty decent but cool. Highs will be only in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. This is around 5 degrees cooler than normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Dry wx will be in place Monday night through at least Thursday.
Temperatures will start chilly, but a midweek warmup to slightly
above normal levels will occur as steering winds become zonal.
We continue to look for a couple of late week / weekend fronts
that will sweep across the area pretty quickly. Models have been
inconsistent with the timing and strength of these features, so
the forecast comes with very low confidence. The latest NBM blend
shows the first front Friday into Saturday then the next for
Sunday. These fronts look strong enough to produce a good chance
for showers and some storms. Right now, moisture depth and
instability appear to be lacking for any severe storm threat, but
given the dynamics / wind energy with these fronts, that could
change if things line up a little differently than current models
show.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Western terminals will see clouds decrease during the evening with
mainly clear skies overnight. Western terminals will see a low to
medium chances for patchy dense fog between 09 and 13z with the
better chance outside of the Nashville metro. Low clouds will
build in over the Plateau as the evening goes on and IFR/LIFR
cigs are expected after 06z. They will also see periods of dense
fog between 06 and 15z. All terminals will see VFR conditions by
15z with clear skies by the afternoon. Light winds overnight
increase up to 8 knots out of the west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 38 63 39 69 / 10 0 0 0
Clarksville 35 62 37 69 / 10 0 0 0
Crossville 38 56 34 63 / 20 0 0 0
Columbia 34 62 35 69 / 10 0 0 0
Cookeville 38 57 35 65 / 20 0 0 0
Jamestown 38 56 35 63 / 20 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 35 62 34 69 / 10 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 37 62 35 69 / 20 0 0 0
Waverly 34 60 37 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 022356
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
- Showers continue today isolated thunderstorms possible this
afternoon. There is a low probability that the Sunday afternoon
storms could produce pea size hail.
- The highest peaks of the mountains above 5000 feet may receive
some wintry mix of precipitation Sunday evening, but no impacts
expected.
- Dry weather and a warming trend will return next week under high
pressure in control. Rain chances return Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Currently scattered showers present across parts of eastern
Tennessee with the greatest coverage west of Interstate 75. These
showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening, eventually dissipating closer to midnight, as a upper level
trough is making it's way through the region. As the afternoon wears
on there could be enough instability and steep enough lapse rates to
generate a few rumbles of thunder, and with atmospheric
temperatures this cold we also cannot rule out the strongest storm
of the day producing pea size hail briefly.
If the precipitation continues for long after sunset the peaks of
the mountains which are only climbing into the low 40's this
afternoon could briefly switch over to light snow before the system
weakens and moves out of the region. Accumulations are expected to
remain light and confined to the highest elevations above 4,000
feet.
Behind this departing system, drier air begins to arrive tomorrow
with high pressure keeping our area dry and mostly clear through
later next week. A gradual warming trend will occur over the week as
heights and ridging increase ahead of another upper-level trough
across the northern Great Plains. This trough will bring an
associated cold front to the region late this upcoming Friday into
Saturday when rain chances increase once again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Precipitation is beginning to clear out and will diminish over the
next several hours. MVFR cigs continue overnight with clearing by
Monday morning and throughout the day. Winds remain light and
prevailing from the N/WNW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 63 39 68 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 58 39 65 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 41 60 36 64 / 30 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 55 34 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...JB
