tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 310404
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
- There is a medium chance (30 percent) for patchy frost early
Friday morning mainly towards the Tennessee River.
- Dry conditions will remain through Friday night with highs in
the 60s.
- Rain showers will return to the forecast Saturday into Sunday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
00Z upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge axis centered
over the West Coast of the United States, and an upper-level
trough axis over the eastern half of the U.S. Latest surface
analysis places a 1018 mb surface high near the Louisiana Gulf
Coast. This is resulting clear skies, light to nearly calm winds,
and excellent radiational cooling with late evening temperatures
in the 40s to lower 50s.
These aforementioned conditions normally are excellent for the
development of frost as temperatures fall back into the upper 30s
to lower 40s across the Mid-South overnight. However, surface
dewpoints have remained high into the evening due to yesterday's
rainfall. Thus, confidence has remained low enough to preclude any
frost headlines overnight. If any patchy frost does occur it would
be predominantly near the Tennessee River.
Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to indicate a
mid-level shortwave trough developing over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest, then moving south into the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valleys for the latter half of Saturday into Sunday.
Instability will be lacking with this system with elevated
thunderstorm potential remaining too limited to include in the
forecast at this time. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
relatively light with this system. Long range models continue to
indicate an upper-level ridge axis building into the Lower
Mississippi Valley next week with the Mid-South on the eastern
periphery of the axis. This will result in temperatures rising
back into the 60s to lower 70s for highs (near to slightly above
normal for early November) with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
VFR conditions and light W/NW winds will continue to prevail as high
pressure dominates.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
No fire weather concerns through the period as daily minimum
relative humidity values will average at or above 50 percent with
light 20 ft winds. The next chance for wetting rains will occur
Saturday into Sunday morning as a trough of low pressure moves
through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CAD
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 310526
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
- A few clouds left on the Plateau, but there will be clear skies
for everyone tonight.
- Cool, but dry Halloween.
- Showers return Saturday afternoon, last through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Stars galore -- for most. Stubborn clouds continue to hamper any
gazing this evening on the Plateau, but this should only be the case
for a few more hours. They are trying to get out of here. In any
event, CAA will still provide pretty chilly AM temperatures for us
tomorrow. Upper 30s and low 40s will be common place. This sets us
up for a decent day tomorrow with lots of sunshine and light winds.
Most Middle Tennesseans should be able to get into the low 60s, with
our Plateau brethren hanging back in the mid 50s for Halloween
afternoon. Then, it's candy time! We'll cool off pretty quickly
and it looks like trick-or-treaters west of the Plateau should see
temps around 50 with those east of I-65 in the upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
The forecast has changed a little since we talked last night.
Previously, Saturday night's system looked like the start of a
couple of dreary days. However, that doesn't seem to be the case
anymore. The upper level low that will start to move into the region
Saturday looks much more progressive. By Saturday afternoon,
showers will start to move into the area. While forecast soundings
are unimpressive and the NBM is all rain right now, I would argue
there should be some mention of thunder. Nothing severe, but with
the upper low in such close proximity, I just wouldn't rule it
out. We'll see what tomorrow's CAMs start showing. Either way, it
does seem as though we could see showers through the night and
into the morning hours on Sunday. What's different compared to
last night? Once rains end on Sunday, that could be it for several
days. Temperatures will remain below normal through Monday due to
some additional CAA behind this weekend system, but as we reach
mid-week, some 70+ degree readings look more and more possible
under some zonal flow.
As many will attest, if it's November and we're getting 70 degree
days, conventional wisdom would suggest storms aren't far away.
While the evolution is much different, long term models do suggest a
late Friday arrival of storms. Due to low confidence, I won't talk
severity, but the GFS is dynamically interesting and worth watching.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle with some valley fog likely
through the overnight hours. This should only impact SRB with
instances of patchy fog through 12Z. Cigs around 4kft will linger
over CSV and SRB, gradually clearing out by daybreak. Westerly
winds will increase to sustained 10 kts by late morning with gusts
up to 20 kts possible through the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 63 42 61 43 / 0 0 50 70
Clarksville 62 43 60 40 / 0 0 70 100
Crossville 54 35 57 39 / 0 0 0 70
Columbia 62 39 61 42 / 0 0 40 60
Cookeville 57 37 58 42 / 0 0 10 70
Jamestown 54 36 57 40 / 0 0 10 70
Lawrenceburg 61 38 61 41 / 0 0 10 50
Murfreesboro 62 38 61 42 / 0 0 20 60
Waverly 60 41 59 39 / 0 0 70 100
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 310544
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
- Dry and cool conditions are expected today with gradual
clearing. Temperatures will remain in the 50s, quickly falling
into the 40s after sunset.
- Rain chances return Saturday night into Sunday, followed by dry
weather and gradual warming through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Currently early this morning, upper troughing continues to lift to
our northeast with the system that recently impacted the area moving
into New England. Northwesterly flow will remain but weaken to 25
kts or less with some 850mb moisture keeping chances for a few
morning flurries in the mountains. Otherwise, breezy winds and
gradual clearing can be expected as high pressure expands from the
southwest. Heading into Saturday, troughing will deepen across the
region with high pressure keeping places cool and dry for most of
the day. However, a weak front will move in Saturday night with
moisture sufficient for precip chances. This is expected to be all
rain as low-level temperatures will remain well above freezing. By
Sunday, a closed low will become cut off and interact with a
disturbance in the Gulf, shifting moisture and rain chances to our
south and east.
By Monday, the flow aloft will become zonal again as the closed low
continues moving further south and east. Surface high pressure will
arrive back in the area, promoting dry conditions and cool overnight
lows due to subsidence. Height rises will then lead to a gradual
warming trend through the week with high pressure keeping the region
dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
VFR has returned for CHA and TYS and is expected to prevail
through the TAF period. However, TRI still remains MVFR with these
conditions likely continuing into the early morning hours. During
the day, VFR will return as cloud cover decreases. All of the
sites can expect a prevailing westerly wind, often gusting to 20
kts at TYS and TRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 38 62 46 / 0 0 0 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 38 61 45 / 0 0 0 50
Oak Ridge, TN 58 36 59 44 / 0 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 34 58 42 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
