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Office: MEG

FXUS64 KMEG 171209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
709 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018


Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018/

Temperatures are steady in the mid to upper 70s across the Mid-
South this morning. A few light showers were noted on radar mainly
near the Tennessee River. Latest GOES East nighttime microphysics
RGB shows light patchy fog across the majority of the area.

.Short term...Today through Thursday...
Another hot and humid day on tap. A weak front is forecast to move
from north to south across the Mid-South today. Due to the
unstable airmass in place and available trigger, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Latest Hi-Res models show convective initiation by late afternoon,
with the best coverage of storms along and south of I-40
corridor. Inverted V soundings will support a damaging wind threat
and the high PWAT air will support heavy rainfall as well. The
weak front is expected to sink into southern parts of the forecast
area by tonight. Slightly drier air will move into Tennessee
River Valley by Wednesday morning. Lows in that area will touch
the 60s, with lower 70s expected elsewhere.

The ridge of high pressure that has been over the Mid-South for
the past week will finally break down this week, as a large scale
trough builds in across the eastern half of the United States.
This will place the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft and support
an MCS pattern. POPs on Wednesday will depend heavily on a
forecasted ongoing MCS across Missouri early Wednesday morning. It
will weaken as it arrives in our area and may eject an MCV into
western portions of the area by Wednesday afternoon. This could
enhance thunderstorm activity across the area, and at the very
least cloud cover. Other than that, mostly dry and temperatures in
the lower 90s.

Another relatively cool morning is anticipated across the Mid-
South on Thursday with lows in the 60s and lower 70s. Shortwave
ridging over the Mid-South will keep the forecast mainly dry
during the day. High temperatures will be slightly cooler with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.Long term...Friday through Early Next Week...
The aforementioned trough is expected to deepen this weekend with
appreciable heights falls to the east of our area. This will
help push a reinforcing front through the region on Saturday and
maybe knock high temperatures down a couple of degrees. Dry air
is expected to move behind the front and remain in place through
at least Sunday. By next week, the ridge will begin to build back
in and humidity levels will on the increase again.



.AVIATION.../12z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through today, outside of any
convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop
later today and persist through this evening. Winds will gradually
shift to north, then northeast. Winds should diminish this evening
and become easterly later tonight into Wednesday.



AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dyer-Lauderdale-



Office: OHX FXUS64 KOHX 171124 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 624 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Showers and a few thunderstorms ongoing at forecast time as Middle TN remains entrenched in 70+ dew points and in turn, plenty of overnight instability. These conditions will continue for about 24 more hours, where at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms will be possible. Latest hi-res guidance shows this overnight activity fading around sunrise with a lull in late morning hours, then a slight uptick in coverage for the afternoon. While we still aren't dealing with any shear, the instability is enough that any of these storms could become strong with gusty winds and locally heavy rain, but they all should remain sub-severe. By late this afternoon, all indications are that we'll start to see a northerly surface wind shift spread into the mid-state and this will mark the beginning of at least one, and maybe two, drier days across Middle Tennessee. Low 60s dew points that are currently over northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will push southward into the state tonight and provide us with a much different airmass than we've been experiencing as of late. Actual temperatures will remain around normal Wednesday and Thursday -- it is still summer, after all -- but low to middle 60s dew points will flood the area. It's a little treat for those of us who don't care for the instant sweat when you step out the door. However...this will be short lived.... By Thursday night, the region will recover back into a similar airmass we have out there right now. Southerly return flow gets going again, dew points get back into the low 70s and as this occurs, a rather intense closed upper low amplifies and digs into the Great Lakes region. By Friday, northwesterly flow aloft will encompass the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and we might very well see a cold front approach the mid-state. With ample instability already in place, the addition of 40-50 kts of deep layer shear Friday evening, at least some strong, if not severe weather might be in play. The window of opportunity has narrowed a bit compared to last night's extended guidance, so I'm not going to add it to the Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning, but if these shear numbers hold steady, I'll likely add it in with tomorrow night's guidance. The upper low continues to dig southward Saturday leaving a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms over at least the eastern half of the mid-state and that low isn't in a hurry. Sunday and Monday could be similar as the low doesn't want to break down until the start of next week. Will maintain at least a chance PoP over the east with temperatures around normal through the first of the week. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions look to prevail this TAF period, with KCSV seeing some MVFR fog/LIFR cigs this morning and KBNA/KMQY/KCSV possibly seeing thunderstorms this afternoon. Have in VCTS mention for now as short term models have mainly isolated to scattered coverage during the afternoon. Winds will become more northerly after the front passes today, with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. Winds should calm down to around or below 5 knots later in the evening. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Unger AVIATION........Barnwell
Office: MRX FXUS64 KMRX 171315 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 915 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .DISCUSSION...Current forecast in good shape for today with an area of showers and thunderstorms moving steadily southeast through Southeast Kentucky toward the forecast area. Instability gradient just ahead of pre-frontal trough driving this convection will slip south across much of the northern half of the forecast area through early afternoon. Perhaps a few more showers and a thunderstorm build in behind this action in association with the trailing frontal boundary to keep probability of precip going late into the day. Temperature forecast looks decent with warming capped off to a small degree from frontal convection. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$