tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 051150
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
550 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
- Patchy black ice will be possible through sunrise, mostly in
areas along the I-40 corridor that are still wet from Thursday's
rainfall. Roads that look wet may actually be icy.
- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.
- Other than a slight chance (15 to 20 percent) of rain on
Sunday, dry and cold conditions prevail until at least midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
The precip from the shortwave that moved through early Thursday
afternoon has largely come to a close, clearing out much faster
than guidance had anticipated. What we are left with around
midnight is a few light returns on the radar, which is more of a
fine mist than any falling precipitation. This does raise a
little bit of a concern about freezing fog overnight since
temperatures are already right around freezing and will continue
to fall overnight. On that same note, a Special Weather Statement
has been issued for patchy black ice for much of the area through
sunrise Friday. Several areas along the I-40 corridor still have
water on the ground from Thursday's rainfall, which has the
potential to flash freeze into slick spots. This will mainly
impact bridges and overpasses, especially in rural areas. This
black ice threat should be over by mid morning at the latest;
temperatures will rise back above freezing and roads will have
plenty of time to dry up throughout the day.
With the exception of some light showers (15-20% chance) on
Sunday associated with a messy surface pattern, chilly and dry
conditions will prevail through the beginning of next week. We're
locked into a pattern that is leaning below normal (40% chance)
for at least the next week due to persistent northwest flow
aloft. For early December, "below normal" means lows generally
around freezing and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. With
little to no moisture upstream, it's looking like the forecast
will remain predominantly dry through midweek. Another weak
frontal passage may encourage another round of showers on
Wednesday, but temperatures will be far enough above freezing to
preclude any winter impacts.
CAD
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
IFR and MVFR CIGs are likely to persist at MEM, MKL, and TUP
through at least this afternoon. The exception will be JBR, where
VFR CIGs will persist through late afternoon as it remains in a
cooler and drier air mass.
A surface pressure trough will move into the region from the NW
late tonight and push a low stratus deck into the region. There
is a 50 to 70% chance of LIFR and VLIFR CIGs developing overnight
at MEM and MKL, with 30 to 40% chances for Additionally, hi-res
guidance is predicting a 30 to 50% of dense fog developing near
the end of the period at all sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than some sporadic showers on
Sunday, chilly and mostly dry conditions prevail through midweek.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 051140
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
540 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
- Some slick spots are possible through early morning,
particularly on bridges and overpasses. Be cautious when
travelling.
- Low to medium chances for light precipitation on Sunday.
- Continued below-normal temperatures are forecast through the
next several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
The bulk of wintry precip has exited east of the CWA with only a
few bands remaining across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures the whole evening have hovered between 32-36 degrees,
and most of the fallen frozen precip has melted upon contact with
the surface. A few areas along the TN/KY got a dusting of snow,
some up to a half-inch. The main concern moving into the overnight
hours will be the potential for icy spots to develop, especially
in areas along and north of I-40. The good news is temperatures
don't look to drop too much more from where they are right now,
maybe 3 or 4 more degrees. The coldest spots tonight will be
across the northwest where upper 20s are forecast. Main takeaway:
if you have to travel tonight, use caution and be on the lookout
for patchy black ice and remember that bridges and overpasses are
the first to freeze. Be careful out there.
We will see a bump in temperatures tomorrow, but it will still be
chilly with lingering cloud over. Most areas will reach near or just
above 40 degrees with overnight lows falling below freezing again
Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Things stay dry and a little warmer Saturday with height rises
moving over the southeast. Cloud cover will stick around, though, we
remain under a general longwave troughing pattern. Our next
distrubance moves through Sunday, and at this time the surface low
associated with it looks rather weak. Rain chances are currently
only around 30% areawide during the day Sunday with precip coming to
an end by Monday morning. A cold front will push through with
this system, dropping temperatures 10 degrees from Sunday to
Monday with highs Monday very similar to what we've felt the last
2 days, in the 40s. As colder air ushers in behind the departing
front, wraparound moisture could result in a few snow showers
along the northern portion of the Cumberland Plateau Monday
morning. This scenario currently looks unlikely as NBM
probabilities only yield a 10% chance of a dusting at this time.
Things will dry out for at least the first half of the week and we
will undergo a warming trend with temperatures warming back into
the mid 50s by Wednesday. Our next chance for rain appears to come
next Wednesday night/Thursday as another disturbance embedded
withing the trough swings through the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Wintry precipitation is exiting Middle Tennessee this morning, but
IFR/LIFR cigs are left behind. SRB and CSV will likely remain
IFR/LIFR through tomorrow morning mainly due to cigs, but
overnight visibility as well. Improvement to MVFR cigs is
possible at CKV early this afternoon, as well as BNA and MQY by
mid afternoon, before trending back to VFR after ~06z. Winds
remain 5 kts or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 41 31 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 40 28 49 33 / 0 0 0 10
Crossville 39 29 46 29 / 10 0 0 0
Columbia 40 28 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 39 29 46 30 / 0 0 0 0
Jamestown 38 28 45 29 / 10 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 40 29 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 40 29 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 39 27 47 32 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Sizemore
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 051118
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
- Winter Weather Advisories continue for light snow/sleet
accumulations in SW VA and NE TN mountains.
- Drying aloft should end measurable precip a little after
sunrise, but drizzle may linger until noon.
- Dry Saturday, rain returns Sunday with a possible transition to
snow in northern sections Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
Overall, the previous forecast is handling the situation pretty
well, considering the mix p-types across the area. Sleet has been
more prevalent than models projected, but the placement of the
Advisory has been nicely aligned with the rain-sleet-snow transition
area based on reports we have been receiving. Radar is showing
precip coverage being more scattered in western sections as dry air
aloft builds in and cuts off the dendrite growth potential. Parts of
SW VA may continue to see several more hours of snow/sleet with some
additional light accumulations of ~1 inch in Wise and Russell
counties where surface temps have been near to below freezing,
possibly up to 2 in higher elevations like High Knob, so the Winter
Weather Advisory will continue. The Plateau counties will likely be
able to be canceled before the 12Z end time, and additional
accumulations there should not be very significant. Low level
moisture will remain in place through most of the day, with a slow,
gradual scouring from the top down, suggesting a light drizzle may
linger into the early afternoon.
A westerly flow aloft and surface high pressure keeps dry conditions
in place Saturday. Another disturbance brings a chance of rain back
into the forecast on Sunday. There could be some wintry precip
Sunday night as cold advection sets in, but confidence is low on the
depth of moisture available and the timing of the cold air arrival
with adequate moisture to produce any measurable snowfall.
Broad troughing over the eastern Conus will persist through the rest
of the forecast period, with some disturbances moving across our
area, but with limited moisture. A potential stronger shortwave may
bring better precip chances in the Thursday/Friday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
Overall, poor aviation conditions are expected to continue with
all sites reporting IFR to LIFR as rain. TRI is most likely to
have at least some periods of MVFR this morning with CHA and TYS
staying down as rain exits the area. CHA and TYS are then
expected to improve to low-end MVFR by the afternoon with TRI
then becoming more IFR than the others. Overnight tonight, further
reductions to IFR or LIFR are increasingly likely but were left
out of the TAF for the time being. Winds will be light and
variable at all sites through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 37 51 35 / 10 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 37 49 32 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 36 45 29 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Anderson-
Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
