tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 080444
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1044 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Rain showers across northern Mississippi will end early Monday
morning and usher in a dry pattern for this week.
- Temperatures will turn cooler early in the work week. Highs
will remain in the 40s Monday and moderate through Thursday.
- An Arctic air mass will move into the Midsouth by next weekend.
Lows on both Saturday and Sunday morning are expected to be in
the teens with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Broad troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with the Mid-
South currently in the right entrance region of the leading jet
streak. Dynamic lifting will allow for scattered rain showers
tonight, mainly across northern Mississippi, before exiting the
region early Monday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly
Monday and Tuesday with lows reaching into the low 30s and 20s
Tuesday morning. The upper pattern will become more zonal through
mid-week alongside milder temperatures Wednesday and Thursday and
a dry forecast. Highs through this time frame will be in the 40s
and 50s, potentially breaching 60 on Wednesday across northern
Mississippi.
Troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS Friday with a
cold front surging south into the region. Models are in good
agreement that this air mass will be of polar origin, and will
likely bring some of the coldest air of the season next weekend.
Moisture ahead of the front is expected to be limited, keeping
precipitation chances below a mentionable threshold (15%).
Temperatures will then plummet Friday and Saturday. NBM
probabilities for minimum temperatures below 20 F are already
above 60% for the vast majority of the region both Saturday and
Sunday mornings. LREF probabilities are shifted further north
with only a 40% chance of lows beneath 20 F Saturday and Sunday,
suggesting discrepancies in the forecast regarding how far south
the arctic front will make it. If temperatures drop as much as
the NBM is suggesting, enough wind would be available to bring
wind chill values into the single digits and approach the need
for cold weather products. Regardless, next weekend appears to
harbor some of the coldest air we may see through this winter.
So, pay attention to next weekend's temperature forecast through
the coming week as changes are expected.
Ensembles try to eventually bring in an amplified ridge from the
west beyond Sunday. However, model spread begins to rise
dramatically by this point, decreasing confidence in the
forecast. Therefore, a rise in temperatures after next Sunday is
in the cards but the arrival and magnitude of any warmer weather
is still yet to be determined. This also applies to our next
precipitation chances, which for the most part are absent from
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Confidence is high (90-100%) for MVFR and IFR ceilings to persist
behind a cold front into Monday morning. VFR conditions are then
expected to return at JBR and MEM by early afternoon, and at MKL
and TUP towards early evening. Elevated north winds will become
light towards early Monday evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Showers will exit the region Monday
morning with precipitation-free weather through the rest of the
week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 080402
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1002 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Low chance for measurable rain with scattered light showers
tonight into Monday morning. A few snow flurries possible
Monday morning.
- Cloudy and chilly Monday. Warmer and breezy Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Much colder air arriving by the weekend with lows in the teens
and highs mostly in the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
A disturbance accompanied by a cold front will move across the Mid
State overnight. Moisture / light rain showing up on radar across
MS/AL will move into mainly southern and eastern sections of
Middle TN overnight. Rainfall will be scattered and very light
with most places seeing just sprinkles (trace amounts). There may
be enough cold air for a flurries Monday morning.
High pressure will build in behind this system Monday, but as we
have seen during several recent events, the low level moisture
will linger under a strong temperature inversion, so clouds will
be slow to break up after this front. Monday will be another
chilly, cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. Wind
chills will be in the 30s through the day.
If skies clear out by Monday night, we could have foggy
conditions including some freezing fog, but enough cloud cover may
stay around to limit fog development.
On Tuesday, surface high pressure will move east of our area as a
low pressure system drops into the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Between these systems, southwest winds will increase with warm
advection bringing our temps up closer to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The warm advection pattern will continue Tuesday night and
Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our north. Temperatures will
climb well into the 50s for most of us on Wednesday, but it may
not feel so warm with gusty southwest winds over 25 mph at times.
A couple of shortwaves accompanied by cold fronts will drop
across the region Wednesday through Friday. We have been
advertising chances for rain showers and perhaps eventually some
snow showers with these systems, but models are trending drier.
the latest NBM forecast shows 20 to 30 percent precipitation
chances at most. This could still change of course, but right now
it looks like the main impact from these fronts will be the
arrival of much colder air, especially with Friday's cold front.
We are forecasting weekend highs in the 30s with overnight lows
in the teens.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Look for another night and another day with low ceilings across
Middle Tennessee, with also some evening and overnight fog
primarily along and near the Cumberland Plateau. An inverted
surface trough has already slipped past the mid state, and an
upper trough currently situated to our west will come through
later tonight that looks to produce light precipitation, mainly
across the Cumberland Plateau, hence the PROB30 remarks at KCSV
and KSRB. Elsewhere, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the
TAFs. There isn't a great deal of antecedent moisture across the
region, despite the persistent low clouds; the 00Z sounding from
OHX shows a moist column up to ~800 mb, then much drier above.
Expect low clouds to linger at least through Monday, with surface
winds increasing from the NNW later this evening and persisting
tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 37 41 28 52 / 30 10 0 0
Clarksville 34 40 27 51 / 20 10 0 0
Crossville 34 39 22 47 / 40 20 0 0
Columbia 37 42 25 51 / 30 10 0 0
Cookeville 35 38 25 47 / 40 30 0 0
Jamestown 33 38 23 46 / 40 30 0 0
Lawrenceburg 37 41 25 50 / 40 10 0 0
Murfreesboro 37 42 25 50 / 30 10 0 0
Waverly 34 41 26 49 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose
FXUS64 KOHX 080453
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1053 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Low chance for measurable rain with scattered light showers
tonight into Monday morning. A few snow flurries possible
Monday morning.
- Cloudy and chilly Monday. Warmer and breezy Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Much colder air arriving by the weekend with lows in the teens
and highs mostly in the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
A disturbance accompanied by a cold front will move across the Mid
State overnight. Moisture / light rain showing up on radar across
MS/AL will move into mainly southern and eastern sections of
Middle TN overnight. Rainfall will be scattered and very light
with most places seeing just sprinkles (trace amounts). There may
be enough cold air for a flurries Monday morning.
High pressure will build in behind this system Monday, but as we
have seen during several recent events, the low level moisture
will linger under a strong temperature inversion, so clouds will
be slow to break up after this front. Monday will be another
chilly, cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. Wind
chills will be in the 30s through the day.
If skies clear out by Monday night, we could have foggy
conditions including some freezing fog, but enough cloud cover may
stay around to limit fog development.
On Tuesday, surface high pressure will move east of our area as a
low pressure system drops into the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Between these systems, southwest winds will increase with warm
advection bringing our temps up closer to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The warm advection pattern will continue Tuesday night and
Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our north. Temperatures will
climb well into the 50s for most of us on Wednesday, but it may
not feel so warm with gusty southwest winds over 25 mph at times.
A couple of shortwaves accompanied by cold fronts will drop
across the region Wednesday through Friday. We have been
advertising chances for rain showers and perhaps eventually some
snow showers with these systems, but models are trending drier.
the latest NBM forecast shows 20 to 30 percent precipitation
chances at most. This could still change of course, but right now
it looks like the main impact from these fronts will be the
arrival of much colder air, especially with Friday's cold front.
We are forecasting weekend highs in the 30s with overnight lows
in the teens.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
A band of light showers is skirting eastward across mainly
southern portions of Middle Tennessee as an upper trough is poised
to rotate through the region during the next several hours.
Ceilings will gradually lower during the overnight period and will
remain mainly IFR through the morning hours. Meanwhile, we've
included some PROB30 remarks at KCSV and KSRB, as these will
likely be the only two terminals that could see light
precipitation overnight. There is some light fog in the 06Z TAFs,
but winds already have or will soon increase from the NNW, so this
should otherwise limit the fog potential. Conditions will be slow
to improve tomorrow, even after the shortwave exits the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 37 41 28 52 / 30 10 0 0
Clarksville 34 40 27 51 / 20 10 0 0
Crossville 34 39 22 47 / 40 20 0 0
Columbia 37 42 25 51 / 30 10 0 0
Cookeville 35 38 25 47 / 40 30 0 0
Jamestown 33 38 23 46 / 40 30 0 0
Lawrenceburg 37 41 25 50 / 40 10 0 0
Murfreesboro 37 42 25 50 / 30 10 0 0
Waverly 34 41 26 49 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 080547
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1247 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025
- Precipitation moves in tonight, with light snow accumulations
expected across the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia.
- A Winter Weather Advisory continues for late tonight into
Monday. The Monday morning commute in these counties could be
impacted by accumulating snow, or reduced visibilities from
falling snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025
WV imagery shows a shortwave trough located over northern MS/West
TN. Precip ahead of this trough will spread across our area through
the night. Initially, low level temperatures indicate rain, except
for the highest mountain peaks above 5000 ft. A cold front is
located just to our west, and will start to push southeast late
tonight as high pressure builds toward the region from the Great
Lakes. As the column cools behind the front and the upper trough
moves overhead, there will be some saturation getting into the
dendrite growth zone along with falling surface temperatures,
allowing for some snow to fall in northern sections. This occurs
around 12-15Z. SW VA and the mountains of E TN will continue to see
light snow accumulations through the day, while there may be more of
a rain/snow mix in northern TN Valley locations, such as the Tri-
Cities area. Not much has changed with the model depictions of
likely snow accumulations - outside of the highest terrain,
accumulations will be fairly limited to less than 1 inch. In the
higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and SW VA, persistent
northwest flow through Monday in the wake of the shortwave may yield
localized accumulations of 1–3 inches through Monday evening,
primarily along mountain peaks near the North Carolina border. Snow
probs from the HREF are 80-90% chance for 2 or more inches, and the
NBM is around 50%. Therefore, the mountain zones down to Blount
County will be added to the Winter Weather Advisory. The timing of
the changeover to snow in the morning could impact the morning
commute in parts of SW VA and NE TN, with some roads getting covered
in the mountains by the end of the day.
No major changes to the rest of the forecast. A generally zonal flow
regime is anticipated through midweek, supporting modest warming
with highs reaching the 50s by Wednesday. The next synoptic system
approaches late in the week, with temperatures initially mild ahead
of the front, followed by a pronounced cold advection behind the low
and frontal passage Thursday into Friday. Precip chances with this
system appear to be trending down, and are mainly across our
northern sections; QPF is very light as well. A much colder air mass
is forecast to settle in for the weekend, with morning lows
potentially in the teens and daytime highs limited to the 20s and
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025
Deteriorating aviation conditions are expected over the next
several hours as rain moves in from the southwest. This will first
occur at CHA before spreading to TYS and TRI before sunrise.
Reductions to MVFR are expected with periods of IFR expected. Rain
will gradually shift towards the mountains through the afternoon.
MVFR is still likely to linger after rain moves out with northerly
to northwesterly winds strengthening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 28 51 36 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 27 49 37 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 44 26 47 36 / 30 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 25 43 30 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
