Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 250458
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
A stalled front extends from north MS through central AR into
eastern OK this evening. Surface high pressure is nudging in from
the Ohio Valley. Light NNE winds are advecting in dry air with
dewpoints in the 30s and 40s across most of the area. Skies will
be mostly clear for most of the night with lows in the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Some showers may push into east AR late but most of
the precip will hold off until after daybreak. The stalled front
will lift north as a warm front on Friday with scattered to
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms developing
across the Mid-South.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
A warm front will slowly approach the Mid-South from the southwest
on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
on Thursday. Increased cloud cover and rainfall will hold
temperatures down by several degrees, especially over eastern
Arkansas.
Once the warm front moves north of the region on Friday, above
normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday and Sunday
with the greatest chance of rain remaining west of the Mississippi
River.
Thunderstorm chances will increase across all the Midsouth by
Monday, focused along a Pacific cold front and aided by an upper
level low pressure system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees. The
frontal boundary that moved through north Mississippi earlier
today is now draped across the central portion of the state.
This front is expected to stall out across central Mississippi
this evening, with dry weather for the entire Mid-South.
Temperatures will be close to normal tonight with lows Thursday
morning in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
The front will slowly lift north on Thursday before moving into
the region by late Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form ahead of the front and move into the Mid-South as
early as Thursday morning and becoming more widespread for
Thursday afternoon and evening. North of the warm front,
temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday due to increased
cloud cover and the threat of rain. Highs are expected to be in
the upper 60s to around 80 degrees.
Once the warm front lifts north of the region on Friday, showers
and thunderstorms will become less widespread and more scattered
in nature. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. A Pacific cold front will be slowly
moving into the central and southern Plains on Friday with a few
thunderstorms possibly moving into western sections of the Mid-
South.
This Pacific front will move very slowly east over the weekend
with additional showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and
Sunday. The greater chance of rain will be over the northwest half
of the region. Temperatures will remain above normal for the
weekend.
The cold front will finally move across Arkansas on Monday and
through the Mid-South by Tuesday afternoon. With the front getting
closer to the region showers and thunderstorms will become more
widespread for Monday before gradually decreasing behind the front
on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
As a warm front lifts north over the region, scattered showers
will accompany the boundary starting around 18Z at JBR, following
suit at the rest of the terminals through the late evening.
Another round of precip originally looked to move in overnight
after 00Z Friday, but the latest CAMs have backed off quite a bit
on this. VFR ceilings should overspread the airspace by mid
morning and stick around through the end of the period. Winds
should remain generally east/northeasterly 6-9 kts.
CAD
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 250525
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Another lovely night out there. Temperatures are sitting right
around 60 degrees for most everyone in Middle Tennessee. Another
clear and cool night is in store with lows in the upper 40s.
Clouds will progressively build in through the afternoon tomorrow
as well as a return of rain chances. Highs tomorrow will be in the
mid to low 70s. Otherwise, nothing of consequence to talk about
in this update. Enjoy the clear conditions tonight!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
The front that brought some showers to the area last night and
this morning has cleared the CWA with light northerly winds behind
it. The rest of the day will be dry with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tonight will
be the coolest night over the next week with clear skies, calm
winds, and lows in the 40s. Thursday will be another nice day with
temperatures climbing into the 70s. Clouds will increase during
the afternoon ahead of a shortwave and associated warm front which
will move through after dark.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
The warm front will bring some rain chances Thursday night into
Friday morning as it lifts through the area. QPF will be light
with amounts expected to range from 0 to a few hundredths.
Southerly low level flow will return behind the warm front and
temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday.
Conditions Friday and Saturday will be breezy as a 990 mb surface
low lifts through the central plains. The weekend looks dry as
upper level ridging holds and keeps the rain chances west of
Middle Tennessee. The upper ridging starts sliding east on Sunday
with an upper wave approaching the area on Monday which will be
our next chance of rain. The temperatures in the extended forecast
continue to look warm with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be
in the 50s and 60s. CPC 8-14 day outlook continues to favor above
average temperatures, so if you plan on planting a garden, it
looks safe to go ahead.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
VFR condition through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds
start to build in late afternoon into the evening. Northerly winds
under 7 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 74 55 82 66 / 0 40 30 10
Clarksville 71 53 80 66 / 10 40 30 10
Crossville 72 51 72 60 / 0 20 30 0
Columbia 75 54 82 66 / 10 40 20 0
Cookeville 71 53 75 63 / 0 20 30 0
Jamestown 71 49 73 61 / 0 10 30 0
Lawrenceburg 74 55 81 66 / 10 40 20 0
Murfreesboro 75 54 82 66 / 0 40 20 0
Waverly 72 54 82 66 / 10 40 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 250458
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1258 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
The forecast for tonight generally looks to be on track. Will just
make a few tweaks mainly to hourly temps and dew points as well as
sky cover with this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Key Messages:
Skies will continue to clear into the evening, with possibly
patchy fog early in the morning.
Discussion:
Rain has moved well east of the mountains today leaving behind it
sunnier skies and a shallow cumulus field in its wake. With more
solar radiation making it to the surface temperatures are well on
their way to get right around seasonal normals this afternoon.
Heading into the overnight hours expect the skies to continue to
clear out letting temperatures drop about 10 degrees colder than
last night. We could see some very patchy fog in the valleys and
wind sheltered areas that don't completely dry out from the
morning showers. However widespread dense fog is not expected at
this time. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow
with the continued trend of quiet skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Key Messages:
1. Low rain chances Friday as a warm front moves through the region.
2. Breezy southwesterly winds Friday through Saturday. Otherwise,
dry and warm conditions forecast over the weekend.
3. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.
Discussion:
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the region on Friday. At the
surface, a strong low is over Nebraska on Friday supported by a
closed low aloft. The cold front with this system remains well to
the west of the Mississippi River on Friday. The warm front ahead of
this system will be moving through the forecast region on Friday
bringing a slight chance for rain throughout the day. Southwesterly
flow will increase bringing WAA and winds will be gusty by Friday
afternoon mainly in the higher elevations and the southern Tennessee
Valley where gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Dew points
will creep into the 50s by Friday afternoon but instability will
likely be too low for thunder.
Saturday and Sunday look dry with the cold front from the
aforementioned system stalling and weakening near the Mississippi
River. Ridging and high pressure will be over the Southeast and our
region. Breezy southerly winds will continue Friday night and
Saturday. Gusts may be borderline advisory criteria (40 mph) Friday
night in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee
Mountains with a wind direction favorable for downslope wind
enhancement.
Monday and Tuesday, a low will be moving through the Great Lakes
with a healthy trough extending through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and
into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The cold front will
move through the region with the best chance for showers and storms
Monday night and Tuesday (for now).
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Only adjustment from previous TAF was to throw mention of fog in a
tempo group given low confidence. TRI still seems to be primary
site for concern of reduced visibility through the morning. Recent
sfc obs suggest dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s creeping
into SW VA and NE TN. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with
light winds. Some high clouds will advect into the region for the
latter half of the cycle.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 78 63 / 0 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 52 74 61 / 0 10 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 76 52 74 61 / 0 10 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 47 70 55 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...KRS
