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Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 280507
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1107 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

* Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures
persist through the Holiday weekend.

* Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday
morning. A few snowflakes are possible early Saturday.

* Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system
next Tuesday that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation
regime to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the forecast
following the passage of a cold front a few days ago. As such,
dry air and cooler temperatures have followed. Lows on Friday
morning will be at or below freezing in most locations due to
optimal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will quickly
rebound throughout Friday, reaching into the 40s and 50s during
the afternoon.

The large upper trough that has brought this week's weather will
begin to leave the area Friday, and with it, high pressure.
Temperatures will still continue to be cool Saturday morning, but
a new shortwave trough will have begun approaching the region.
Warm advection will then commence ahead of this new wave with
plenty of moisture transport above 925 mb. As this moisture
arrives, isentropic lift above the leftover, cool air mass will
begin to produce precipitation Saturday morning. Some models show
the SFC - 700 mb profile below freezing, which would support the
potential for a few snowflakes early Saturday morning. However,
the air beneath 850 mb - 925 mb will be very dry with dew point
depressions above 10 C. If this is the case Saturday,
precipitation will struggle to reach the ground for several hours
and would limit the potential for any accumulation. Eventually
the warm advection will take over, and any wet-bulbing that takes
place will be overcome with rain taking over through Saturday.

A cold front will sweep into the region from the northwest
throughout the day Sunday, pushing rain to our south. GEFS
ensembles are in good agreement that the front will stall over
central MS. Monday looks dry, but another wave will then approach
from the west, amplifying Monday and will bring precipitation
back to the forecast again.

Although there were significant uncertainties within the past
several forecast periods, ensembles are beginning to come into
agreement regarding both the frontal passage and the upper
pattern for the middle of next week. As the new shortwave reaches
the Mid-South, the stalled boundary to our south will begin to
organize into a surface low. Moisture will then overrun a newly-
formed warm front into an airmass which is expected to have a
temperature profile supportive of wintry weather. The
complications in the forecast now exist at the mesoscale,
particularly on how far north above-freezing temperatures in the
SFC-850 mb layer will make it. This transition line from
snow/sleet/freezing rain to just rain differs by hundreds of
miles within ensemble members, making it difficult to judge who,
if anybody, would receive impacts from wintry precipitation next
week. Therefore, this forecast is still riddled with
uncertainties regarding exact impacts but some form of
precipitation is expected Tuesday.

The main surface low will exit the region late Tuesday and into
Wednesday morning, but the forecast is still a mixed bag
regarding how long precipitation will abate. Some ensemble
members keep producing QPF over the region Wednesday while others
wait until dry the region out through the end of next week.
However, temperatures are expected to generally remain above
freezing, limiting the potential for impactful wintry
precipitation after Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR. High pressure drifting to the east over the Midsouth will
result in light winds tonight, veering east to southeast tomorrow
and tomorrow night. Light rain associated with a midlevel cloud
deck(6-8k ft) will approach MEM around 29/12Z and JBR after
29/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period.
Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the
area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS



Office: OHX FXUS64 KOHX 280519 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Cooler temperatures will persist through Friday night with highs mainly in the 40s and lows the next two nights mainly in the 20s. - Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend with slightly warmer temperatures. Precipitation chances will persist into early next week, with some possibility of light snow Monday night and early Tuesday. - Temperatures throughout most of next week will remain largely below seasonal norms. There will be multiple nights with subfreezing temperatures across the bulk of Middle Tennessee. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Clear skies means tonight will be bitterly cold across Middle Tennessee. Lows tonight will be well below freezing: around the 20s across the area but in the low 20s and flirting with the teens east of I-65. Dry conditions will prevail into the start of the weekend, with temperatures well below freezing overnight and in the 40s and 50s during the day Friday and Saturday. A trough will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend, bringing rain chances to middle Tennessee. Saturday afternoon looks to be the timeframe rain will start in our NW areas, moving east overnight into Sunday. Looking at specifics, current guidance has significantly dropped over the last 24 hours, to where now there is a mere <20% chance of over half an inch of QPF. This trough will bring another shot of cold air as we enter the first few weeks of December. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 The overall pattern will remain on the active side, with medium chances for precipitation through the extended. Guidance is saying yes it looks like there will be another trough in the first week of December that comes through. However, the specifics, like placement, type, and timing, remain inconsistent from run to run. Things have not gotten clearer over the past 24 hours as hoped, and continued to be inconsistent. So while this is something to watch as we get closer in time, it's a bit hard to say anything with certainty right now. It does look like there is a chance for wintry precipitation next week, a small one, but again, too inconsistent to say anything right now. Last night, the area receiving a dusting of snow was much larger and tonight it is in a totally different area and much smaller. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more clear in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet conditions and mostly clear skies. Northerly winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 27 45 28 52 / 0 0 0 30 Clarksville 25 43 26 48 / 0 0 0 60 Crossville 20 39 21 45 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 25 47 26 51 / 0 0 0 20 Cookeville 22 40 23 48 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 22 38 22 47 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 24 46 26 51 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 23 45 25 51 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 25 44 28 47 / 0 0 0 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX FXUS64 KMRX 280644 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 144 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Dry and colder weather continues through Saturday. - A system will bring a return of rain chances and gusty winds for the mountains and foothills Saturday night into Sunday. Higher elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix early Sunday and again Sunday night. - Another system will bring rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Some northeastern mountain areas may see initial wintry mix with precipitation ending as light snow Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 Currently early Friday morning, troughing is centered to our east with broad Canadian high pressure expanding into the region. Dry conditions are expected this afternoon, with just a light breeze as mixing heights in excess of 4kft tap into weak H85 flow near 15-20kts. Stronger subsidence will provide better radiational cooling conditions with temperatures dropping well into the 20s and even possibly teens for some in the northeast tonight. Focus will then shift towards a deepening shortwave and developing system expected to eject out of the Rockies for Saturday. This system is expected to track towards the Great Lakes throughout the day. Based on the latest data, its 850mb jet is expected to increase to above 40 kts with the surface high to our east helping to create a stronger MSLP gradient along the mountains. Overall, the direction of this flow is a bit westerly for significant mountain waves, but the other factors still suggest some enhancement. Latest NAM gudiance suggest gusts between 45 to 55 mph possible between 00Z-18Z Sunday. A wind product may need to be considered with future forecast packages. As precipitation moves into the region with this system after 06Z Sunday, most sources suggest portions of the northeastern mountains and possibly southwest Virginia to be near or below freezing. With a warm nose aloft due to the strong 850flow, this could provide a period of mixed precipitation, including freezing rain. However, WAA is likely to quickly warm temperatures above freezing soon after onset, yielding minimal impact. This will then give way to a cold rain throughout the day on Sunday. By Sunday evening, CAA returns, but moisture will exit rather quickly. A brief period of light snow is possible in the higher elevations. Another area of high pressure to the north will keep the region cool and largely dry on Monday with focus then turning towards our southwest. Troughing is expected to deepen again as it ejects out of the Rockies with another area of low pressure expected to deepen along the northern Gulf. This system will then progress northeast with the recent high pressure then becoming centered over New England. The high pressure over the northeast will give a cold air damming setup just to our east as evidenced by surface troughing. With this system tracking to our south and east, the question of precipitation types will arise again, especially late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The latest consensus largely keeps freezing low-level temperatures to our east, but some sources do show this for our northeastern mountains. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 4 to 8 degrees Celsius, a strong warm nose will exist once again, likely keeping most places above freezing below this level. Still, some periods of mixed precipitation are possible in the mountains before the area warms. During the day on Tuesday, this system tracks up the Atlantic Coast with stronger northwesterly flow and CAA presenting chances for a changeover to light snow in the evening. This would be more prominent along the mountains but still possible elsewhere, depending on how long moisture lingers. High pressure will provide cool and drier conditions on Wednesday. Late in the week, additional troughing will provide another return of precipitation chances with a lot of uncertainty in any details. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions and northwest winds between 5 to 10 kts will prevail through the period. Some gusts to around 20kts will be possible at TRI this afternoon due to a stronger pressure gradient in closer proximity of a departing surface low over New England. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 27 50 41 / 0 0 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 23 49 37 / 0 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 42 23 48 36 / 0 0 0 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 20 48 33 / 0 0 0 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW