tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 091801
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1201 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
- Breezy and mild conditions are forecast tonight and Wednesday.
A Wind Advisory may be needed for parts of the Midsouth on
Wednesday.
- Much colder temperatures are forecast from Saturday night through
Monday night. Wind chills will drop to as low as 10 degrees
over northwest Tennessee and Missouri Bootheel Sunday morning.
Monday morning will likely bring the coldest temperatures of the
week, as calm winds settle in.
- Temperatures will warm up by the middle of next week, approaching
near normal by Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Other than breezy conditions tonight and Wednesday, benign
weather will continue over the Midsouth the next few days. Arctic
air remains on track for a Saturday night arrival.
Little has changed in the forecast with respect to temperature
trends through Friday. Southerly low level flow will likely
intensify early Wednesday in advance of an upper trough dropping
into the upper Midwest. A Wind Advisory may be needed Wednesday,
at least until the passage of a Pacific cold front Wednesday
afternoon.
Under continued northwest flow aloft, another cold front will
drop into the Midsouth Friday night. This front will be backed by
a colder airmass, primarily taking an easterly trajectory toward
the Ohio River Valley. 07Z NBM MaxT are in the upper quartile
range for Saturday and appear too warm, given northeasterly
surface winds and broken cloud cover. Official MaxT grids for
Saturday have been lowered closer to the NBM mean.
Friday night's cold front will be followed by an Arctic cold
frontal passage roughly 24 hours later. The core of this Arctic
air isn't quite as impressive as guidance depicted several days
ago, but it takes a more direct path toward the Midsouth and is
backed by a 1042mb pressure ridge. Wind chills will likely dip to
around 10 degrees over far northeast AR, the MO bootheel and
northwest TN Sunday morning. Coldest temps are expected for
Monday morning, as the surface ridge axis settles in and brings
light winds.
At this time, no wintry precipitation is forecast, as precipitation
ends Saturday night prior to arrival of the colder air. We will
need to watch for possible overlap of subfreezing temps and QPF in
future guidance.
Temperatures look to rebound toward the middle of next week, as
an upstream ridge over the southern Great Plains lifts to the
lower MS River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Ceilings are scattering out as of 18Z. There may be a brief
period of BKN MVFR in the near term, but things are mixing out
fairly quickly and VFR is expected to prevail within the next
hour. The biggest impact will be wind in this forecast period.
Pre-frontal gradient winds will induce some southwesterly LLWS
around 50 kts starting just before midnight tonight, lasting
through at least sunrise Wednesday. After the front passes
(likely a dry cold front), gradient winds shift to northwesterly
and remain quite elevated with gusts up to 30 kts by Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Strong southwesterly winds will continue through the middle part
of the afternoon on Wednesday. These strong winds will be
accompanied by minimum relative humidity 40 to 55 percent. An
Arctic cold front will bring dry and cold dry conditions for the
second half the weekend.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 091708
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
- Look for a brief warm up and breezy conditions today and
Wednesday.
- Very low chance for light rain/snow on the Upper Cumberland
Wednesday night behind our next frontal passage. Stay tuned for
the latest.
- Coldest air of the season expected Sunday night. Lows in the
teens and upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Oh, look at that. The sun does still exist. If you live in Middle
TN, you were starting to question it. Clouds have finally thinned
out and the sun made its grand reappearance this morning. We still
have some high clouds around, and while we had a chilly start to the
day, southerly flow will allow the sun to warm us up today and
tomorrow. In fact tomorrow, we might actually climb back above
seasonal normals. The problem with all of this, the warmup is ahead
of a cold front that is expected to swing through here tomorrow and
the surface pressure gradient will tighten up ahead of the front.
That means south to southwest winds are going to be gusty both days,
so it may not feel quite as warm as it otherwise would. Models are
mostly dry with this frontal passage on Wednesday. NBM is
spitting out some low rain chances, but I'm looking at forecast
soundings from the GFS and NAM and wondering whether or not the
Upper Cumberland will have to worry about orographic lifting
tomorrow night. This could lead to snow accumulation with both of
these models suggesting the perfect wind fetch and soundings that
are saturated deeply enough (-8 to -10C is plenty cold enough for
ice crystal formation on the Plateau). I'd put this likelihood at
20% or less, but we'll monitor this over the next 24 hours and
see where things stand at this time tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
The bigger story of this forecast package is probably going to be
the next cold front due in here Saturday night and the CP airmass
that will follow. Rain chances have increased to medium Saturday
evening ahead of the front and the question will be whether the cold
air will match up with any precipitation. Right now, I'd say there's
a low chance of this occurring on the Upper Cumberland Plateau.
Everyone else looks all liquidy. Behind the front, Canada will be
sending its best cold air mass and by Monday morning, we're in for
some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far. NBM backed
off on the extreme-ness of these temperatures in the last couple of
runs, but it still looks like upper teens and low 20s for everyone
as the kids wait for the bus Monday morning. Current NBM probs
suggest a 50-70% chance of morning lows in the teens area-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
The sun has finally made an appearance over middle TN and clouds
have finally become VFR and will stay that way for the TAF
period. Winds will be S to SW and gusty 20 to 25 kts. Expect LLWS
at 2000 FT overnight. A LLJ will swing through overnight that
could wring some moisture out over the northeast plateau. This
should not affect any terminal locations so have not included any
precipitation or increase in clouds or decrease VIS for CSV or
SRB.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 51 39 55 29 / 0 10 10 0
Clarksville 50 39 52 27 / 0 10 20 0
Crossville 46 34 48 24 / 0 0 10 0
Columbia 49 37 56 27 / 0 0 10 0
Cookeville 46 35 51 27 / 0 0 20 0
Jamestown 46 35 48 25 / 0 10 20 10
Lawrenceburg 49 37 56 26 / 0 0 10 0
Murfreesboro 49 37 55 27 / 0 0 10 0
Waverly 48 38 53 27 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....12
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 091806
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
106 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
- Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold
front late Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible behind the
system Thursday.
- Colder morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend and
early next week possibly dropping into the low 20's or teens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
Currently the sky is clear and blue for most of the eastern
Tennessee Valley as, go check it out if you haven't seen it
recently. We're expecting to see some breaks from the clouds today
and, to some extent, tomorrow with southerly surface winds and
higher pressure we'll see temperatures warmer than we've seen for
several days, back into the 50's for many on Wednesday.
These temperatures won't last for very long as our next system will
move into the region heading into Thursday as a low pressure system
moves across the Great Lakes region and drags along with it a cold
front into the southeast US. Precipitation with this system looks to
move in late Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a very
classic northwest flow set up. We'll likely see light rain in the
valley at times, with temperatures cold enough that the higher
elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the
east Tennessee Mountains pick up snow... Especially the northwest
facing sides. Currently have the snow mostly falling between 00z
Thursday through 12z Thursday, but we could see the peaks of the
mountains get flurries throughout Thursday. Expect snow
accumulations to remain mainly above 2,500 feet, with the peaks of
the mountains topping out around the 2-4 inch mark. Eventually
behind the precipitation upper heights will be rising which will
bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.
Things get a bit murkier at the end of the weekend and next week due
to potential southern and northern stream systems merging, but the
one thing models agree on is a substantial drop in temperatures
Sunday into early Monday. Coldest temperatures of the forecast (and
season so far) will likely occur Monday morning with low 20's across
the southern Valley and dipping into the teens in southwest
Virginia. Kids will want to bundle up for the bus ride to school
Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
SCT clouds expected to linger in the are the rest of the day.
Biggest impacts will likely be from the low level jet increasing
overnight, so have included LLWS in the TAFs during the peak
strength.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 35 56 29 / 0 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 36 52 30 / 0 0 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 46 35 52 29 / 0 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 48 28 / 0 0 40 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
