tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 281832
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1232 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days.
- Rain will return to the Mid-South Saturday through Sunday
morning. We could see a few snowflakes, mainly north of I-40,
Saturday morning though impacts are not expected.
- Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system
next Monday and into Tuesday morning that could bring heavy rain
or a mixed precipitation regime to the region. Stay tuned for
updated forecasts in the coming days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
We had a pretty chilly start to our Friday as below freezing
temperatures occurred across much of the Mid-South leading to
widespread frost across much of the area. We're still pretty chilly
at this hour with current temperatures in the lower 40s to lower
50s under clear skies and light and variable winds at the surface.
As surface high pressure slides to the east and quasi- zonal flow
aloft prevail over the next 12 hours or so, we will see chilly,
benign weather.
A pattern shift will occur tomorrow morning as a deepening
surface low begins to emerge from the Central Plains. Ahead of
this deepening low, a shortwave will materialize over the Middle
Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning with decent swath of warm air
advection brought in with it. Ample moisture transport aided by
the aforementioned lifting mechanisms will bring precipitation,
northwest to southeast, tomorrow morning. A small window will open
up for a rain and snow mix, mainly along the Tennessee Kentucky
border, early tomorrow morning where temperatures will be below
freezing. However, there are a few caveats with a wintry mix.
Precipitation may not begin early enough when temperatures are
below freezing, leading to no wintry precipitation and just rain.
Either way, impacts are not expected tomorrow morning. The main
story through the rest of tomorrow will be widespread showers as
forecast PWATs begin to increase to around 1.2", nearing the 80th
percentile for this time of the year.
An attendant cold front will begin moving across the Mid-South
Sunday morning, pushing precipitation southeast of our area by
afternoon. There is pretty good model agreement that this cold
front will stall just south of the I-40 corridor. As such, we will
see a pretty decent temperature contrast, highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s north of this boundary and in the mid 40s to lower 50s
south of this boundary Sunday. This stalled front will largely
impact precipitation type come Monday. A Gulf low will materialize
and begin pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday
morning. One thing we know, moisture will be present as the upper-
level pattern transitions from zonal to northwest flow and this
surface low begins to bring precipitation chances back to the Mid-
South. Another swath of warm air advection will also act as a
lifting mechanism for precipitation Monday afternoon into evening.
Depending on how quickly this Gulf low begins to influence the
weather here in to Mid-South Monday morning, precipitation could
interact with at or below freezing temperatures in northeast
central Arkansas leading to a light freezing rain and rain mix. As
warm air advection infiltrates in, by late Monday morning, any
precipitation over areas really south of I-40 will quickly
transition to all showers.
North of I-40, however, is a different story. As the gulf low
continues to push east/northeast across the Mississippi Valley,
precipitation chances will increase across all of the Mid-South.
Areas mainly along the Tennessee and Kentucky border will likely
have below freezing temperatures interacting with precipitation.
As such, we will likely see some sort of a wintry mix. Now as far
as what precipitation type will be mixed with rainfall is
debatably the biggest question. Depending on what ensemble
solution you look at, this could be predominantly snow, freezing
rain, or even sleet mix. Air temperatures aloft will likely be
above freezing given high temperatures Monday afternoon likely
reaching above freezing limits, in the mid 30s to lower 40s. As
such the predominant precipitation type will likely not be snow.
Bottom line, we will more than likely see a wintry mix mainly
north of I-40 Monday afternoon and extending through Tuesday
morning.
Precipitation chances will begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon as
a negatively tilted trough pushes into the Upper Mississippi
Valley from the southern Rockies region. High pressure will
quickly build in behind this trough, increasing Wednesday's
temperatures back into the 40s, comparative to the 30s for
Tuesday's highs. The weather does look a bit unsettled in the
latter part of next work-week as cluster analysis is hinting
another Gulf low bringing shower chances back to the Mid-South
Thursday into Friday. However we are still a ways out to pinpoint
exact impacts from this next system.
AEH
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Light and variable winds are anticipated through the remainder of
Friday, but aviation impacts return on Saturday as an upper level
trough impacts the Mid-South.
As this feature moves into the airspace, FL020 winds will
increase to around 45 kts by mid-morning. This will necessitate a
LLWS mention at MEM and JBR through the end of the period. Mid
level cloud coverage will increase as well, but ceilings will
remain VFR. Rain showers are anticipated after sunrise at JBR,
increasing in coverage throughout Saturday.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
No significant fire weather concerns will exist through the
forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to
remain above 30 percent across the area with light winds. Wetting
rain chances will increase Saturday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...ANS
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 281805
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Widespread rain showers expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning, then again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
total rainfall through Tuesday is 0.5"-1.5".
- Low to medium chances of light snow across northwest portions of
Middle Tennessee Tuesday morning. Chances for 1.0" or greater
accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.
- Temperatures remain below-normal for the next several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Longwave upper-troughing remains across much of the CONUS today
with a shortwave disturbance evident on water vapor imagery across
the Northern Rockies. This system is projected to move into the
Plains tomorrow fostering a strengthening low pressure system that
will move toward the Great Lakes Saturday night. A low-level jet
is expected to form ahead of the advancing cold front which should
support warm, moist advection and widespread light rain across
Middle Tennessee into Sunday morning. Rather light rainfall
amounts are forecast. We'll also have marginal fire weather
conditions Saturday afternoon due to low RH values and increasing
southerly gusts prior to moistening boundary layer conditions.
Until then, it'll be another cold night tonight with lows in the
20s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
The longwave pattern will not shift much into early next week with
broad upper-troughing and passing shortwaves. In fact, a
subsequent shortwave is projected to advance across the Southern
Plains toward the Mississippi Valley on Monday. This appears to
favor cyclogenesis close to the Gulf Coast, though southerly low-
level flow is expected to spread northward into the Ohio Valley
where cold/dry air is in place. Once lower tropospheric saturation
occurs, wintry precipitation is possible, but is currently
favoring areas north of Middle Tennessee due to warming surface
temperatures within the surface trough. Nonetheless, we continue
to monitor for any snowfall accumulations as there's a low chance
for accumulations across the northwest half of the area. Latest
LREF probabilities show a <40% chance for seeing at least 0.1"
(measurable snow), but only 10-20% chance of seeing 1.0" or more.
We're currently not expecting any meaningful accumulations or
impacts for that matter. A good widespread soaking of rainfall is
likely, however.
The remainder of the forecast period appears cool, dry with
continuation of below-normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
VFR conditions forecasted through the next 24 hours. Light NW
winds become light SE after 06z tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 45 28 52 37 / 0 0 20 80
Clarksville 43 26 48 33 / 0 0 60 80
Crossville 39 20 45 35 / 0 0 10 70
Columbia 46 26 51 37 / 0 0 20 90
Cookeville 40 23 48 35 / 0 0 10 80
Jamestown 38 22 47 34 / 0 0 10 70
Lawrenceburg 46 26 51 38 / 0 0 10 90
Murfreesboro 45 25 52 38 / 0 0 10 80
Waverly 44 28 47 31 / 0 0 60 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Sizemore
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 282304 AAA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
604 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Dry and colder weather continues through Saturday.
- A system will bring a return of rain chances and gusty winds for
the mountains and foothills Saturday night into Sunday. Higher
elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix early Sunday and
again Sunday night, but impacts are forecast to be minimal or
none.
- Another system will bring precipitation to the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Some northern areas, including higher
elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as snow Monday
night. All rain is expected Tuesday with a gradual changeover to
snow late Tuesday across higher elevations.
- Dry again Wednesday and Thursday with precipitation chances
increasing once again on Friday into next Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
High pressure shifts eastward on Saturday with weak southerly flow
returning during the afternoon. Increasing isentropic ascent will
result in increasing clouds Saturday evening and into the
overnight hours. Some virga and light precipitation will increase
in probability overnight with likely probabilities for
precipitation area-wide by Sunday morning at sunrise. Temperatures
will be above freezing, so rain is expected to be the predominant
precipitation type. Some non-impactful light wintry mix will be
possible on the leading edge Saturday night across the higher
elevations of the mountains and for portions of northeast
Tennessee and southwest Virginia, but little to no impacts are
expected.
Colder air moves back into the area Sunday night into Monday
morning behind the departing cold front, but with drier air
quickly arriving, limited orographic precipitation potential is
expected across the higher terrain.
A southerly track low pressure system will develop across the
Mid-South ahead of a strong shortwave trough across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. At this time, cold air is not
expected to be far enough south to result in much wintry weather
across the Tennessee Valley or Southern Appalachians. All rain is
expected in the valley and lower elevations with a brief period of
wintry mix possible across the higher elevations late Monday night
before a switch to all rain during the day on Tuesday. No impacts
are expected. By Tuesday evening and night, northwest flow
develops behind the departing low pressure system with some light
orographic snow expected across the higher elevations of the East
Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains. Limited accumulations
are anticipated with only minor impacts across the highest
terrain.
High pressure will be across the region mid-week with dry weather
on Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure system may impact
the region next Friday into Saturday, but timing and track is
highly uncertain at this time.
With longwave troughing much of the Eastern and Central CONUS for
the upcoming week, temperatures remain 5 to 12 degrees below
normal for much of the upcoming 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF period. High
pressure will slide east along the TN/KY state line through late
this evening, then east of the Appalachian chain overnight.
Resulting winds should be light and variable at KTRI and KTYS for
much of the period. Surface high extends south of the mountains
into Georgia by midday Sat, which will turn winds to the SE at
KCHA with some gusts possible by the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 27 51 41 / 0 0 0 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 23 50 36 / 0 0 0 50
Oak Ridge, TN 42 23 48 36 / 0 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 20 48 33 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...CD
