Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 061200
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
- Patchy dense fog will affect the Mid-South through late Saturday
morning. A medium chance (50%) for widespread dense fog will
occur Saturday night into Sunday morning.
- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal
highs in the 50s on Sunday.
- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning
temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, we'll be
back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold front
late Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Dense fog has spread across portions of eastern Arkansas this
morning, evidenced by traffic webcams. Coordination with our
Arkansas neighbor led to a Dense Fog Advisory through 11AM this
morning. Hi-res guidance suggests that fog will worsen and
potentially spread for a couple hours before improving by late
morning.
The grids were updated to include fog through late morning across
the majority of the Mid-South.
AC3
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Upper air analysis this evening features a longwave trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through the Southwest
United States with a ridge axis along the West Coast.
Temperatures are similar if not slightly warmer than Thursday
night with late evening temperatures in the 30s as cold air
advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures relatively
steady.
Little if any change is expected in the overall pattern as
northwest flow will persist across the eastern half of the U.S.
into next week with shortwave troughs rotating through the
Mississippi Valley. The first shortwave trough and associated
cold front will move through the Mid-South Sunday into Sunday
night and another trough by late next week. Both of these troughs
are expected to have limited precipitation mitigating the threat
of wintry precipitation, especially Sunday night over northwest
Tennessee as temperatures drop towards freezing. A couple of days
of colder temperatures will follow the mild temperatures with
each frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Patchy dense fog persists near all sites this morning under an
IFR deck. Hi-res guidance continues to advertise low CIGs and low
VSBYs through late morning with a low to medium chance of
worsening conditions for a couple of hours this morning.
A 30% chance for improvement in CIGs will occur later this
afternoon. Guidance is consistent with IFR/LIFR CIGs moving back
into all sites before midnight tonight. The dense fog signal
continues to increase (greater than 60% chance) for late tonight
as winds weaken and low level moisture gets locked in.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Mid-South through late
morning. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to
scattered showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected to
prevail through midweek.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ027-028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
525 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
- Low to medium chances for light rain by Sunday evening with a
rain/snow mix possible late Sunday night into Monday morning.
No accumulations expected.
- Continued below-normal temperatures through the next several
days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
It was a chilly, gloomy late evening with temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s. A stagnant pattern is expected through the night
with weak surface high pressure. A strong inversion shown on the
OHX 00Z sounding around 925mb will keep low clouds and somewhat
foggy conditions locked in place. Temperatures will slip just a
few degrees to the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Saturday.
There is some risk for patchy freezing fog overnight where the low
clouds break, but for the most part the clouds will stay in place
and preclude dense fog formation.
The wx will stay dry Saturday. Clouds will hang around in the
morning. Just enough south wind will develop in the afternoon
with passage of weak shortwave to (hopefully) mix out some of the
low clouds and warm temps into the mid 40s to around 50s. Lows
Saturday night will drop to the lower 30s.
A couple of weak shortwave disturbances will move across the area
Sunday through Sunday night with patchy light precipitation. South
winds ahead of the first wave will help warm temps a little more
for Sunday with mostly lower 50s. A cold front will follow with
cooler temps Sunday night and Monday. So, any light precip on
Sunday will be rain, but the colder air may bring a few snowflakes
Sunday night into early Monday. No accumulations are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Broad high pressure builds over the east US Tuesday warming us
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper level trough will
dig out of Canada into the Great Lakes mid to late week. This will
bring low rain chances but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
timing and placement of this trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
BNA and MQY are currently reporting VFR, but IFR cigs are knocking
on the door per satellite imagery. I've started the TAFs off with
this low stratus which will persist through the morning before a
transition to MVFR for the afternoon. Otherwise, it's a mix of
cloud cover for Middle TN airports today, though SRB and CSV have
the best chance for afternoon clearing and VFR. Low confidence on
how cigs and sky cover play out tonight, but MVFR has been
advertised at BNA, MQY and CKV. Winds are light through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 48 35 55 34 / 0 0 20 40
Clarksville 47 34 52 31 / 0 10 20 30
Crossville 44 31 50 32 / 0 0 10 50
Columbia 47 33 54 34 / 0 0 20 30
Cookeville 43 32 50 32 / 0 0 20 50
Jamestown 43 31 50 31 / 0 0 10 50
Lawrenceburg 47 32 52 35 / 0 0 20 30
Murfreesboro 45 32 53 34 / 0 0 20 40
Waverly 45 34 51 31 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 061109
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.
- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
Low level moisture remains trapped under a strong inversion and
against the mountains in a westerly low to midlevel flow. Clouds
will remain in place through the night, until the passage of a
midlevel shortwave trough this afternoon. Most of the area should
have mostly sunny skies for a couple hours before sunset.
The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday evening and
continues through Monday morning. Forcing with this system will be
mainly provided by a mid/upper level shortwave trough. There's no
strong surface cyclogenesis in the southeast with this system, and
the wind field through the lower and midlevels is fairly weak. With
weak forcing, any precip should be light in nature. The latest NBM
PoP appear to have trended downward a bit, as the area of heaviest
rainfall passes to our south. On Monday morning, around 09Z or so,
cold advection develops and temperatures begin to drop behind the
850 mb trough and a weak surface front, allowing for a change to
snow. This will be mainly in SW VA and the East TN mountains, but
outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light
and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of
northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening.
Tuesday will be dry with mostly sunny conditions in a NW flow
pattern. Temperatures will get a bit warmer on Wednesday, into the
50s, with a slight increase in clouds with a dry shortwave trough
passage. A Clipper system brings a chance of rain on Thursday and
Friday, although model agreement is poor with this system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
Gradually improving aviation conditions are expected with TYS
already seeing some brief periods of VFR. MVFR remains likely at
CHA and TYS until around noon with TRI keeping MVFR further into
the afternoon. By later today, some clouds around 3,000 feet will
likely remain but with less ceilings. Winds will be light and
variable with a westerly to southwesterly direction favored.
Overnight, some fog potential exists but was left out of the TAFs
for the time being.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 33 53 41 / 0 0 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 28 50 34 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
