tn discuss
Office: MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 071745
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- There is a 30-50% chance of rain showers in north Mississippi
this afternoon and evening.
- Temperatures will turn cooler early in the work week. Highs will
remain in the 40s Monday, but moderate through Thursday.
- An Arctic air mass will move into the Midsouth next weekend. Saturday
morning lows are expected to be in the teens with highs in the
upper 20s to middle 30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
A weak cold front will move across the Midsouth this afternoon.
A surface low will develop along the front as it approaches the
Gulf Coast and an inverted trough associated with the low will
result in a 30-50% chance of rain showers this afternoon and
evening across northeast Mississippi.
The current CONUS upper air pattern features a broad deep trough
across the eastern two thirds of the Nation. Its axis is
oriented from the Great Lakes into South Texas. Farther west a
weak ridge is centered over California, Washington and Oregon.
This general pattern will slowly shift to the east over the next
36 to 48 hours resulting in northwest flow across the Midsouth.
During the same timeframe, at the surface, high pressure
currently over the Northern Plains will shift over the northern
Ohio Valley and a 1006mb surface low will move into northern
Minnesota. The Midsouth will be mostly influenced by the southern
extent of the surface high resulting in dry conditions early next
week. High temperatures Monday will be in the 40s with a warming
trend through Thursday.
Wednesday into Thursday the surface low will deepen as it tracks
across the Great Lakes. A series of cold fronts will sweep
across the Midsouth late Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture ahead
of these features will be limited, so any chance of rainfall will
remain low(less than 25%) and any accumulation will be less than
a few hundredths of an inch. Cooler conditions return Thursday
with high temperatures by Friday mostly in the middle 30s to
middle 40s. Conditions look frigid next weekend. Saturday is
expected to be the coldest day, featuring morning lows in the
teens to low 20s and highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
30/Sirmon
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Primary concern over the next 24 to 30 hours remains CIGs. At
midday, an area of VFR was noted over northeast AR. This will
likely close down by mid/late afternoon with the approach of a
midlevel shortwave and formation of lower cloud decks.
An IFR cloud deck over southern MO will likely expand southward
overnight, with CIGs over the Midsouth likely near the IFR/MVFR
threshold. Frontal depth and cloud base height will increase on
Monday, with VFR not out of the question at JBR and MEM in the
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/evening and again Thursday, dry conditions
are expected.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
Office: OHX
FXUS64 KOHX 071718
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Low chances for light rain Sunday night. A few snowflakes
possible late night as a cold front passes. No accumulations
expected.
- Next rain chance Wednesday night through Friday, possibly ending
with some light snow showers.
- Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving
late week with frigid temperatures next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Stratus once again is making today another overcast day. I'm not
sure we will be in the 50s for highs today with all the cloud cover
if it persists. Some locations on the plateau have had sunshine
until very recently, which makes me think that some spots that have
seen more sun before the clouds came in could reach the low 50s
today. The rest of us will remain in the 40s. Some rain chances will
begin to impact Middle Tennessee in the evening hours, as a cold
front moves in and pulls in just enough moisture to give us some
rain, but not much. QPF amounts look pretty dry, with guidance
suggesting probabilities for over a tenth of an inch of
precipitation are slim (<20%). Overnight into Monday morning, this
rain will changeover into flurries, but no accumulation is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
After our dreary weekend, high pressure will build in through
Wednesday morning, driving temperatures into the 50s for highs. This
story changes mid-week, as a trough is expected to dig south and
bring more rain chances to Middle Tennessee. Precipitation amounts
with this system once again do not look like much in our area, with
better chances for a wetting rain in the eastern part of the state.
One notable thing is an arctic air mass from close to the arctic
circle will be behind another cold front that will move through at
the end of the week. We're still refining exacts with how cold we
will get but it looks like this could be our first widespread run at
the teens for lows this season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Morning fog has lifting to a IFR/LIFR cigs for all western
terminals. We will see this low cloud deck rise some as we head
through the afternoon but it will likely remain in MVFR. KCSV and
KSRB will be VFR this afternoon but low cigs return for all
terminals this evening and continue to lower overnight into IFR.
Low chance for a few light showers towards daybreak with the best
chances over the Plateau. Light southerly winds will turn
northerly this afternoon up to 5 knots. Winds will increase up to
10 knots overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 51 37 43 28 / 10 20 10 0
Clarksville 49 35 41 27 / 10 20 0 0
Crossville 50 35 40 23 / 0 30 10 0
Columbia 49 37 43 26 / 0 20 0 0
Cookeville 50 35 40 26 / 0 30 10 0
Jamestown 49 33 38 24 / 0 40 20 0
Lawrenceburg 49 37 43 26 / 0 20 0 0
Murfreesboro 49 38 43 26 / 0 20 10 0
Waverly 47 34 42 27 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller
Office: MRX
FXUS64 KMRX 071749
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1249 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Overnight expect precipitation to move in. Light snow
accumulations are expected, primarily across the higher
elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late tonight into
Monday. The Monday morning commute in these counties could be
impacted by accumulating snow, or reduced visibilities from
falling snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
Primary forcing for precipitation will be associated with a midlevel
shortwave trough, with model guidance showing little in the way of
organized surface forcing. Therefore, precipitation amounts are
expected to remain light throughout the event. Measurable
precipitation should start generally between sunset and midnight as
the column slowly moistens closer to the surface. By early Monday
morning, cold air advection strengthens behind a weak low-level
trough and attendant surface cold front, resulting in falling
temperatures and a transition to snow across northern portions of
the forecast area. This transition will be most notable in southwest
Virginia and the eastern Tennessee mountains. Outside of the highest
terrain, accumulations will be fairly limited. In the higher
elevations of northeast Tennessee, persistent northwest flow in the
wake of the shortwave may yield localized accumulations of 1–3
inches through Monday evening, primarily along mountain peaks near
the North Carolina border.
While much of the counties look to see snowfall totals technically
remain below Advisory criteria, have opted to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory since the ridge lines could see up to 3
inches... In addition the Monday morning commute could very much
be impacted as light to (possibly at times) moderate snow is
coming down. This is a very low end advisory, but Monday morning
driving conditions are the main concern with this event.
A generally zonal flow regime is anticipated through midweek,
supporting modest warming with highs reaching the 50s by Wednesday.
The next synoptic system approaches late in the week, with
temperatures initially mild ahead of the front, followed by a
pronounced cold advection behind the low and frontal passage
Thursday into Friday. A much colder air mass is forecast to settle
in for the weekend, with morning lows potentially in the teens and
daytime highs limited to the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
Low confidence forecast. Clouds are extremely stubborn to clear out
of KCHA, but should start to break up in the next couple of hours.
Cold rain moves in overnight and will likely drop conditions down
below MVFR categories, but low confidence on how far they drop with
some guidance going to VLIFR and others barely dipping below MVFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 50 29 52 / 40 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 44 28 50 / 40 30 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 45 27 48 / 30 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 40 27 44 / 50 80 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for Johnson-
Southeast Carter-Unicoi.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
