sd discuss
Office: FSD
FXUS63 KFSD 202307
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
607 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds are expected to persist through the bulk of
Tuesday. The Wind Advisory has been extended and expanded to
include all locations north of highway-20. Wing gusts up to
40-50 mph is expected, strongest along and west of the James
River. Isolated higher gusts are possible.
- The strong winds will keep elevated fire danger going through
the rest of this afternoon as well as Tuesday despite
humidity levels remaining above critical thresholds.
- Widespread freeze condition's are likely Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. While the growing season has ended, this
is the first widespread freeze of the Fall.
- Rain chances look to return to the area early next week. While
details can change over the coming days, there is 50-70%
chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch at
this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Breezy conditions persist this afternoon with northwest gusts up to
30 to 45 residing across the area, strongest along and west of the
James River where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Should see winds
slowly wane through the rest of the afternoon hours before a quicker
weakening of the winds occurs after sunset. Despite the weakening
winds, elevated fire danger persists through the rest of the
afternoon hours due to the winds and clearing skies. Breezy winds
will persist through the bulk of the evening hours before a second
shot of cold air advection (CAA) sweeps through the forecast area.
The CAA will re-steepen low level lapse rates and allow for
northwest winds to restrengthen late this evening through the
overnight hours. Thus, 40-50 mph gusts are expected through this
period of time. Isolated higher gusts are possible. As such, have
extended and expanded the current Wind Advisory to last through the
night for all locations north of highway-20. Despite the wind, lows
will still fall to the upper 30s to low 40s thanks to the previously
mentioned CAA.
The northwest cold advective flow will persist through Tuesday
morning. This will keep the 35-45 mph gusts going throughout the
day, with isolated higher gusts possible. Have extended the Wind
Advisory for though the bulk of the day while slowly expiring from
west to east. Low level stratus will wrap in from the north and may
result in a few sprinkles to very light showers across mainly
southwest Minnesota. With the CAA in place, Tuesday will be the
coldest day we have experienced in a while with highs only warming
to the upper 40s and 50s. The winds will make it feel a bit cooler,
potentially down to about 40F along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest
Minnesota. Some elevated fire danger is again expected due to the
strong winds though humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds between 35 to 50%. High pressure will begin to slide into
the forecast area Tuesday evening and night, finally ending the
strong winds across the area. With high pressure in control, low
temperatures will fall to the low to mid 30s, resulting in a
widespread frost across the area.
The middle and end of the week will be quiet and dry as large scale
subsidence resides over the Northern Plains. High temperatures will
rebound back to the 50s and 60s with lows falling to the 30s and 40.
Winds will be much lighter with gusts only as high as 20 to 25 mph
so no elevated fire danger is expected. Additional rounds of
frost/freeze are expected Wednesday and Thursday nights with
Wednesday nights frost being more widespread.
The weekend will be dry and warm with high temperatures remaining in
the 60s. Winds will be a bit breezy but shouldn't affect outdoor
plans. While conditions will remain benign, medium range guidance is
in good agreement in a stronger upper level wave and associated jet
streak ejecting into the Plains. This looks to result in lee
cyclogenesis and potentially bring rain chances back to the area.
The evolution of the upper wave as well as associated surface low
track remains highly uncertain at this time. The ensembles support
this as they show a 50-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a
tenth of an inch. Details can still change over the coming days but
will continue to monitor this potential. Otherwise, highs will
remain in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Biggest concerns through this period will be the strong
northwesterly winds. A secondary concern will be MVFR ceilings
later tonight into Tuesday morning with the better chances for
these in southeast SD and southwest MN. While there will be a
bit of a lull during the evening, northwest winds will gust to
40 to 50 mph at times, especially as another surge of cooler air
works into the area late evening into the overnight hours, with
strong mixing allowing winds to remain gusty through most of
Tuesday. Heating should help raise MVFR ceilings back to VFR
late morning into the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
A line of light showers continues to push east this afternoon across
parts of northwest Iowa. Dry conditions are present behind the line
and skies are clear west of I-29. Northwest winds continue to 25 to
45 mph while dew points remain in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Humidity values remain between 40-60%, lowest west of I-29. Despite
the humidity levels remaining above critical levels, elevated fire
danger will persist through the rest of the afternoon hours due to
the strong winds.
While the winds will weaken a bit during the evening timeframe,
winds will restrengthen overnight, back up to 40-50 mph. Winds will
slowly weaken throughout the day on Tuesday. Highs will be cooler on
Tuesday, only up to the 50s. Humidity values will only fall to 35-
50%, but with the strong winds in place, elevated fire danger is
expected.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ038-050-052-053-
057>059-063-064.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for SDZ039-040-
054>056-060>062-065>071.
MN...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...Meyers
Office: UNR
FXUS63 KUNR 202320
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
520 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong northwest winds will continue through this evening with
gusts of 55 to 60 mph possible across much of the western SD plains
- Showers this afternoon could produce locally stronger wind gusts
- Dry weather and a gradual warming trend for the rest of the week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Latest sfc analysis depicts sfc low centered over MN. Scattered
showers have developed across portions of northeastern WY into the
Black Hills and southwestern SD. For the lower elevations, precip
should mainly fall as rain but the Black Hills will be cold
enough for snow showers. Any snow accumulations this afternoon are
expected to be minor, though a few spots could pick up around an
inch if a strong enough shower gets going. These showers will
continue over much of northeastern WY into western SD through this
afternoon with few isolated thunderstorms possible. The shower
activity could also mix down higher wind gusts with isolated gusts
of up to 60 mph possible, even where there's no High Wind
Warning. In terms of winds, breezy northwest winds have developed
across the CWA with some stations reporting gusts of 45-50 mph.
The gusty winds will continue through this afternoon with gusts of
up to 60 mph possible across northwestern SD. Therefore making no
changes to the wind headlines for this afternoon.
Another wave will rotate down the backside of the upper low
tonight, expecting this wave to mainly impact central ND and East
River. Northwest winds will pick back up again across northwestern
into central SD late tonight through early tomorrow morning
thanks to this wave, though gusts should remain below advisory
level.
Upper low slows as it exits the region and lingers over the Great
Lakes through the late week while a ridge builds over the western
US. This should keep us under northwest flow with drier
conditions. Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with
highs in the upper 60s to 70s by Thursday/Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 517 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Leftover shra with local MVFR conditions will wane this evening,
coming to and end around 21/03z. Gusty west/northwest winds in
excess of 40kts at times winds will slowly subside over
northeastern WY/far western SD, but will continue east of the
Black Hills on the open plains. Outside of any showers, VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-
012>014-073-078.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
SDZ025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-074-075-077.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Helgeson
Office: ABR
FXUS63 KABR 210223
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
923 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds expected to continue overnight into Tuesday, with
gusts generally relaxing to 30 to 45 mph by Tuesday morning,
eventually becoming light Tuesday night.
- Much of the region is forecast to drop to 32 degrees or below
Tuesday night, with mid/upper 20s possible in and around the
James River valley.
- Warming trend forecast by this weekend, with highs back into the
60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
The surge of low clouds and a few showers are starting to surge
into the northwest portion of the forecast area. While winds have
decreased a bit, they will probably increase later with the second
wrap around surge of clouds overnight. Wind advisories look good.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
It's been a struggle to get any gusts above warning criteria (58mph)
this afternoon, but will leave the High Wind Warning in place as the
potential still remains through the daylight hours. Numerical
guidance shows a brief lull in winds after sunset, then an uptick
once again perhaps into advisory level winds later tonight into
Tuesday morning. Therefore, made some changes to headlines to extend
the advisory across central SD into the James valley through 12Z
Tuesday, and added the east into a Wind Advisory from 06Z tonight
through 18Z Tuesday. May be dealing with some wrap around showers
across the region late this afternoon/evening and into the overnight
as well. Best chances for this (40-60%) are across the eastern CWA
late tonight. May need to monitor for changes to PoPs late this
afternoon/evening across the western CWA for whatever comes out of
MT/ND and western SD. Hi-res models try to bring some activity into
central SD later this evening. Do have 20 PoPs now, but perhaps not
expansive enough. Cloud cover also moves in from the north tonight
and looks to cover much of the eastern CWA into Tuesday, with
gradual erosion from west to east through the day.
Surface high pressure builds into the region Tuesday night with
clear skies and light winds. As has been noted for several days, the
stage looks to be set for the coldest night of the season thus far.
Once again, blending in some lower percentile NBM values to get lows
more into the upper 20s across a larger portion of he region, and
manually dropped Aberdeen a couple more degrees closer to 25.
The rest of the forecast from Wednesday and beyond still looks
rather uneventful until perhaps Sunday night/Monday when precip
chances return to the forecast. Will be anticipating a warming trend
by the weekend, with highs forecast to surge back into the 60s.
Still seeing a signal for breezy/gusty southerly winds which will
likely bring increasing fire danger to the area this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
The strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 knots will decrease some
after sunset, but pick up again later tonight as surge of MVFR
cigs rotate into the area from the north. -SHRA is possible late
tonight and early Tuesday morning at KATY and KABR as the MVFR
cigs develop.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for SDZ007-008-011-
019>023.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003>006-
009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Scarlett
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...Scarlett
