sd discuss
Office: FSD
FXUS63 KFSD 260434
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1034 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds are expected to persist through the overnight
hours. Peak winds may reach near or above 60 mph in a few
locations, with widespread potential for 50 mph winds.
- Snow will spread southeast through the CWA late this
afternoon and evening. North of I-90, expect visibility down
to one half mile briefly. Along and north of HWY 14 short
lived near blizzard conditions may be possible.
- Greatest snow totals of 1-3 inches expected along Highway 14
and into SW Minnesota, with amounts of a trace to 1"
elsewhere. Plan on briefly difficult travel north of I-90.
- Travel after Thanksgiving now likely impacted by growing
potential for a winter storm Friday through Saturday.
Confidence in at least moderate snow accumulations is growing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
THIS AFTERNOON and TONIGHT: Compact upper low spinning across the
Dakotas early this afternoon continues to bring a combination of
high winds, rain/snow, and areas of persistent low visibility and
snow. We've already had several reports of 60+ mph winds through
the MO River valley, and with the track of the upper low eastward
this evening, further expansion of high wind gusts of 50+ mph will
be likely through the Tri-State area into the overnight hours. The
highest gusts may focused along the higher terrain areas of the MO
River valley, but also in the highest elevations of the Buffalo
Ridge where 60+ mph gusts may be possible.
Deformation band of snow continues to pivot into central South
Dakota early this afternoon, and will continue to track eastward
through the afternoon and early evening. The southern reach of this
snow remains uncertain, but should at least graze the Missouri River
counties by this evening. While the heaviest snow this afternoon
has been focused just north of the CWA, expect the potential for at
least 1-3 hours of moderate snow rates, but also strong wind gusts
to move through areas north of I-90, but especially along Highway 14
and into SW Minnesota into early evening. Accumulations of 1 to 3"
of snow will be possible, with lesser amounts toward I-90. Brief
period of near blizzard conditions may be possible, but the overall
longevity of the snow, wetness of the snow, and limitation of poor
visibility just in falling snow, leads me to stay with the winter
weather advisories. Greater potential for blowing snow and reduced
visibility remains possible in SW Minnesota, so will continue
winter storm warning headlines. With the influx of colder air
arriving, expect bridges and overpasses to ice up first.
WEDNESDAY: Winds will gradually subside after midnight, but are
still expected to remain quite gusty into Wednesday morning.
Eventually though, the influence of high pressure will weaken winds
by late in the day with temperatures rising into the upper 20s to
lower 30s.
THANKSGIVING: High pressure remains in control of the region on
Thanksgiving, with light winds through the day. Some early
morning fog potential may be possible through mid-morning.
Otherwise, temperatures rise into the middle to upper 20s in
many areas, with low 30s near the Missouri River.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: Confidence is growing in potential high impact
travel weather developing as early as mid-day Friday and continuing
through Saturday night for many in the region. By early Friday,
we'll begin to watch an open wave exit the Pacific Northwest and
move into the Rockies. Further east, a narrow elevated warm front
will begin to develop from southwest North Dakota into northwestern
Iowa, with increasing warm advection through the day along this
boundary. 40-50 knots of 850 mb flow into this boundary will help
create an intense frontal band near 850mb, with some hints of
700:600 mb instability by mid-afternoon overhead. The presence of
mid-lvl vorticity advection overhead and increasing upper divergence
from developing upper jet would support moderate snow rates in a
narrow corridor. The biggest question lingering is where this band
establishes itself as some N-S variance continues today.
This initial wave may serve as a stage setter for a deeper wave
moving into the Plains by Friday, establishing the positioning of
the elevated baroclinic zone and setting the region up for a much
larger winter weather impact through the day Saturday. Latest
deterministic and ensemble data has come into better alignment
pushing the upper trough through the Rockies and then moving it
through the Plains during the day. The alignment of the trough
(slightly positive, turning negative) would support deep meridional
moisture transport and warm advection through the day Saturday
through the Upper Midwest, with the right entrance region of the
upper jet (and nearly a coupled jet structure from southern jet)
supporting the development of more intense precipitation across a
larger area.
Unlike Monday, ensembles are in much better overall agreement
pushing the probabilities of >3" over 60-70%, and probabilities of
6" 20-30% in a large area of the Tri-State area. It should be noted
that ensemble probabilities are based off a 10:1 SLR, when in
reality given the thermal profiles and generally light winds, actual
SLR may be closer to the 13-16:1 range. Meaning, the actual
probabilities of ensemble thresholds (1,3,6") are likely much
higher than raw output suggests, and totals could be in the
moderate to heavy range. The good news is there is still plenty
of time for adjustments as superensemble guidance suggests there
may be a range from heavier snow as far north as Aberdeen and
Grand Forks to as far south as Interstate 80. Needless to say,
if traveling after Thanksgiving, or returning home, NOW is the
time to monitor and adjust your plans.
Snow will begin to end by Sunday morning, through high pressure
moving into the Plains is expected to drop temperatures into
the teens in many areas for daytime highs. The SPG will be
increasing into Sunday morning, which could see some potential
for 20 to 30 mph gusts through the daytime hours, and leading to
blowing snow potential.
Very cold and dry conditions are expected into the new work week,
with increased confidence in below normal temperatures thanks to
snow cover.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
MVFR/IFR stratus continues for areas along and east of the
James, with lower end VFR stratus west of the James. Did go a
bit more pessimistic with TAFs at KHON though, as there are some
lower obs upstream. Guidance this evening has been trending
slower with the return to VFR conditions, now into the later
morning or early afternoon with some guidance. Therefore, did
keep conditions less than VFR a bit longer at all three sites.
Snow continues to pivot east tonight into the early morning
hours. Light accumulations expected. Strong winds and falling
snow have been reducing visibility to MVFR/IFR categories, with
some locations below 1/2SM at times. Visibility should improve
when snow ends.
Robust northwesterly winds persist through the overnight hours,
tapering down from west to east. Gusts remain 30-45+ knots,
strongest through the early overnight across southwestern MN.
Gusts around 25 knots continue through the day Wednesday, with
winds becoming light after sunset into the evening hours.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ068>071.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
SDZ038>040-052>056.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ039-040-
054>056-060>062-065>067.
MN...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ089-090-097-098.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ071-072-
080-081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ089-
090-097.
IA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ001>003-012>014-
021-022-032.
High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ020-031.
NE...High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...SG
Office: UNR
FXUS63 KUNR 260421
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
921 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds to diminish quickly this evening
- Cold air to remain in place through Thanksgiving, with colder
air coming in this weekend
- Snow chances this coming weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
The High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisories were allowed to
expire on time. Winds have diminished significantly across much
of the area. Areas on the eastern Plains near Winner will see
gusts occasionally gust up to 40 mph over the next hour before
dropping into the 20 mph range.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
Latest analysis shows 500hpa closed low spinning across northeast
SD with subsidence seen on water vapor imagery across western SD.
Upper ridge is located across the western CONUS. At the surface,
vigorous low pressure is located in central MN with westward
oriented surface trof into west central SD. Very gusty NW surface
winds are still found across the western SD plains, with some
locations still gusting over 45kts as of 20Z.
Winds will quickly diminish this evening as upper level
system/surface system continue to move east away from CWA, winds
decouple and main bubble of 3-hrly pressure rises also slides east
into MN. While winds in and around the Black Hills have already
started to slide below advry/warning criteria, winds on the plains
are still pretty blustery. Will just let current headlines run
until the 00Z time frame when they are set to expire. With the
winds going light overnight and with the expected clearing skies,
have dropped lows tonight an additional 2-4 degrees versus
inherited values.
Northwest flow continues across the region with little in the way
of WAA through Friday, but things do look generally dry. A few
flurries are possible across the higher elevations of the Black
Hills on Wednesday as a minor short wave drops through the area.
Once we get to Friday and the weekend, things begin to look a bit
more active and messy. The next 500hpa trof is forecast to drop
into the midwest. The models have shown little interest in
consistency with this system, placement and sensible weather.
About the only consistent thing that they have shown is that even
colder air will move in with this feature, with the potential of
seeing our first sub-zero overnight lows with highs in the teens.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 920 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the valid
TAF period.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Woodward
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Hintz
AVIATION...Woodward
Office: ABR
FXUS63 KABR 260516 AAD
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1116 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
December. Below zero wind chills are possible over northern SD
each morning Thursday through Sunday. Wind chills will fall into
the teens to near 20 below zero Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
mornings.
- Friday through early Saturday morning has a 55-75% chance of
snow with a 45-65% chance of more than 2 inches for the
northeast third of SD. The heaviest snowfall is expected Friday
afternoon through sunrise Saturday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
The worst of the system has exited this evening. All headlines
have now ended.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
As of 230pm, current radar indicates the moderate to heavy snow
within the wrap around/trowal extending from Brown/Spink Counties
and eastward through west central MN. Current temperatures range in
the upper 20s into the lower 30s with wind gusts ranging from 30 to
near 60mph. We have been dealing with visibilities as low as a
fourth of a mile or less at times over portions of north central and
northeastern SD due to this heavy snow band/blowing snow. CAMs are
consistent on the wrap around snow continuing to push eastward with
the last of snow exiting western MN by ~05Z or so. An additional
3 to 6 inches of snow is possible, mainly east of the James River
(highest over the Coteau), with the snow coming to an end this
evening.
With the CAA and tight pressure gradients, northwest winds will
continue to be high, with gusts of 30 to near 60 mph, highest James
River Valley and eastward through this evening. The combination of
falling snow and winds will continue to lead to widespread blowing
snow/blizzard conditions especially over the Coteau and eastward
into MN through this evening. Through the overnight, gusts of
30-45 mph are possible over and east of the Coteau. As this system
departs, high pressure will filter in from the west and over the
region Wednesday through Thursday with dry conditions expected.
Winds at this time will still be a bit breezy Wednesday between
the exiting low and incoming high but will diminish west to east
Wednesday afternoon and evening across the CWA.
With the colder air moving in behind the low and incoming high,
temperatures will drop into the mid to upper teens to lower 20s.
Wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Wednesday will only be
in the 20s to the lower 30s (near to about 5 degree below average)
with wind chills in the teens and 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
The main story for the long term is the Friday/Saturday snow. Models
are in much better agreement on the track and timing of a mid level
low moving across central SD. This low moves into north central SD
Friday afternoon and moves southeast into central SD before turning
more easterly and into southern MN by Saturday afternoon. With this
increased agreement among the models comes a bit more certainty on
snowfall amounts. The NBM is now showing a 45 to 65% chance of more
than 2 inches of snow along and northeast of a line from Mobridge to
Mitchell. This is a marked increase from yesterday. The chance for
more than 4 inches is around 30 to 40% along a line from Ipswich to
Clark. Overall, ensemble plumes are in pretty good agreement for
around 2-3 inches of snow. The highest chance of snowfall looks to
be between 55 and 75% Friday afternoon through early Saturday
morning.
Temperatures for the period are expected to be much colder than the
past couple weeks, at 10 to 15 degrees below average. Sunday and
Monday look to be the coldest, approaching 20 degrees below average.
Past the end of the period there look to be hints of some warmer
weather, although this is far from certain. With the low on Friday,
we have a chance for some 35 to 45 mph gusts, mainly along and east
of the James River, Friday afternoon and evening. This will reduce
visibilities significantly in areas of falling snow. Of course, this
will change if the track of the low changes. The NBM is a little on
the low side with gusts right now, so this may need to be bumped up
in the next couple days. The rest of the period looks to be in our
normal 20 to 25 mph gust range.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR conditions will improve to VFR on Wednesday as skies clear
from west to east.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...20
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20
