sd discuss
Office: FSD
FXUS63 KFSD 301137
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
537 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries may linger this morning but no additional
accumulation expected.
- Patchy blowing or drifting snow may continue east of I-29
through midday Sunday. Continue to monitor travel conditions
and if you have to travel, keep a preparedness kit in your
vehicle.
- Much colder air prevails this week. Morning low temperatures
fall into the single digits with nighttime wind chills below
0F. Coldest looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
with wind chills as cold as 20 below.
- Low chances for light snow develop late tonight through Monday
and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. Impacts look to be
minor at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
TODAY: With stratus in place over the area, may continue to see
flurries through the morning hours; however, no additional
accumulation is expected. Winds taper down this morning into early
afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph lingering longest along and east
IA/MN State Hwy 60. Patchy blowing and drifting snow may continue to
impact travel. Check travel conditions before you head out.
Otherwise, clouds will be slow to clear today and we'll see clouds
increase again tonight from the south. Highs today in the teens, not
much different than our temperatures at 3 AM. We may cool a few
degrees into the single digits before daybreak if the stratus can
clear some. Regardless, wind chills this morning are in the single
digits below zero.
TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: Lows tonight fall into the single digits.
Increased pops and QPF from the NBM for late tonight into Monday
evening, as a short wave moves through NE followed by a trailing
trough axis. Ensemble guidance still shows a low to moderate (less
than 50%) of measurable precipitation from and southeast of a
Yankton to Sioux Falls to Windom line. Probability of a tenth of an
inch or more are very low - less than 15% - so if we see snow,
amounts would be very light. Strongest winds during this time look
to be offset in location from the possible snowfall, so impacts are
expected to be minor. Gusts around 25 mph could lead to some very
patchy blowing/drifting snow at times.
WAA and southerly flow allow for a relatively warmer, but still
colder than average day to start meteorological winter Monday. Lows
Monday night again fall into the single digits either side of zero.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cold front sweeps through the area late
Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing a push of even colder air.
May see some light snow with the fropa Tuesday evening and into
early Wednesday morning, although guidance varies on the timing and
location of not only the surface front but also forcing aloft. Some
guidance indicates that there may be a brief period of mixed
precipitation; however, most soundings show snow as the prevailing p-
type. With cold surface high pressure swinging in behind this,
colder conditions continue through mid week. This puts highs in the
teens and 20s for most of the area, and Wednesday will feel even
colder with breezy northwesterly winds. Wednesday night lows have
trended 10+ degrees colder in the last 24 hours, now in the single
digits and teens below zero - putting wind chills in the teens to
lower 20s below.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Mid/upper level trough digs into the
Plains and Southwest toward the end of the week. Guidance is varied
on the details (such as timing/track of any waves), but a more
active pattern may develop across the Plains late next week into the
weekend. Temperatures generally below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
MVFR and IFR ceilings continue this morning, and based on latest
soundings, have trended a bit more pessimistic in how long these
conditions stick around - now keeping these ceilings around for
most of the period.
This morning, continuing to see some flurries around the region.
Visibility has remained at or above 6 SM with these flurries.
Stronger winds persist east of I-29, with gusts around 25 knots,
which is leading to some patchy blowing snow and MVFR/IFR
visibility. These conditions should improve as winds taper down
later this morning and into the afternoon.
Finally, chances for light snow return south of I-90 into
southwestern MN late tonight into tomorrow morning. With chances
below 30%, did not mention at KSUX at this time.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
Office: UNR
FXUS63 KUNR 301114
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Northwest flow will push several disturbances through the
region for the next week
- Best chance of accumulating snow will be over the northern
Black Hills
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
09z surface analysis had arctic high over the northern Plains.
Nighttime microphysics loop showed some stratus splattered about
the CWA. Temperatures under the stratus were in the single digits
above zero, but where skies have cleared, the mercury was low as
-17F. Water vapour loop depicted northwest flow over the region
with a shortwave over ID.
Today/tonight, ID shortwave drops south/southeast into the four
corners area. Weak lobe of mid-level moisture/weak QG-forcing over
the far southern reaches of the CWA will bring low chances of
light snow later this afternoon/tonight. MaxT adjusted several
degrees below guidance for today given fresh snow and increasing
cloud cover. Lows tonight will be near guidance.
Monday/Tuesday will see a warming trend ahead of upper trough
slipping through the northern Plains for Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Latest ensemble trends have increased PoPs Tuesday night, likely
due to stronger cold front passage leading to noticeably colder
temperatures for Wednesday. Pattern suggests upslope snowfall over
the northern Black Hills with several inches of snow possible
(LREF chance of >0.1" QPF >60%) if boundary layer moisture is
sufficient. Plains will see a bit of light snow too, but
confidence lower for impactful snow accumulations (LREF chance of
>0.1" QPF <30%). Thursday/Friday warms up again, but then another
shortwave moves through for the end of the week bringing a chance
of light snow, especially for the northern Black Hills.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 412 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
Local MVFR/IFR conditions due to patchy stratus will improve by
this afternoon, some of which may affect the KRAP terminal. Local
IFR conditions due to patchy freezing fog over northwest SD will
improve this afternoon. Patchy light snow may occur near the SD/NE
border after 30/21z, but mainly VFR conditions expected.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
Office: ABR
FXUS63 KABR 301143 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
543 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle of
the week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15 to 25
degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 10 to 20 degrees below
zero are forecast for Sunday, Monday, and Thursday mornings.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 337 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Scattered flurries and light snow showers continue across the
forecast area early this morning per METARs, radar returns and
SDDOT/MNDOT webcams. A fairly extensive area of stratus covers most
of the CWA and farther upstream into ND helping to maintain
temperatures in the low to mid teens. The flurries/occasional light
snow will persist at least until daybreak at which time BUFKIT
profiles begin to dry out the column that resides within the DGZ and
we lose weak low level omega.
A 1035mb sfc high pressure system is progged to build overhead today
in conjunction with weak s/w upper ridging allowing for lighter
northwest winds. As the center of the sfc high shifts southeast this
afternoon, a west to southwest wind develops. This will not be
enough to rid the area of cloud cover as leftover shallow low level
moisture gets trapped. Still feel some sunny breaks in the overcast
will be possible. High temps won't recover much as readings remain
in the upper single digits to mid teens. Cloud cover will play an
important role tonight in terms of how much of a fall we see in the
temperature department. If some breaks or a period of clearing
develops, readings will quickly fall into the single digits above
and below zero. However, increasing cloud cover from south to north
early Monday will allow temps to stabilize or slowly rise prior to
daybreak. Our northern zones would stand the best chance for seeing
some clearing and subzero temperatures.
An upper trough works southeast across the Northern and Central
Plains on Monday. Sfc low pressure across the Front Range will slide
east into the Central Plains and kick off light snow showers mainly
across NE and into far southern SD early Monday morning. Weak low
level WAA tries to develop within this flow across southwest and
south central SD helping those areas reach the 20s for highs where
the snowpack isn't quite as extensive. Otherwise, most of our area
will see highs in the upper teens to low 20s where we have an
established deeper snowpack.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
The long term starts Monday evening with a trough over eastern SD
that will continue to move east through the overnight hours. We stay
in westerly to northwesterly flow aloft through the entire period
with a couple disturbances to the flow. The first is Wednesday,
looks like a cold front moves across the area, connected to a low
moving across northern ND and southern Canada. The second is
Saturday as a strong shortwave/weaker low moves across eastern SD.
Both the frontal passage on Wednesday and the shortwave on Saturday
are expected to bring a chance for some light snow to the region.
PoPs for Wednesday have become a little more widespread than the
previous model run, but remain 30% or less. Right now, accumulations
are expected to be a trace to a couple tenths at most. For Saturday,
PoPs are again around or less than 30% and mainly concentrated west
of the James River valley. This is Day 6 so expect things to change.
Temperatures are still expected to be around average for the most
part, but Wednesday and Sunday look to have temperatures as much as
20 degrees below average. Wind chills Tuesday morning are expected
to be in the single digits to low teens below average, coldest along
the ND/SD border. Thursday morning wind chills have dropped
dramatically, now looking to be in the 20s below zero for areas
along the ND/SD border and along the James River valley. This is
caused by a much colder air mass moving in behind the front on
Wednesday, and not so much by strong winds.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/VFR cigs will generally be the prevailing conditions through
this TAF valid Period. TEMPO groups for light snow added at
KABR/KATY terminals on the front end of the forecast this morning.
Winds remain relatively light from the northwest this morning
before switching west to southwest this afternoon and evening.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Vipond
