sd discuss
Office: FSD
FXUS63 KFSD 142334
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
534 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A very warm afternoon as highs climb into the upper 60s to the
low 80s this afternoon. (warmest through the Missouri River
Valley). A few record high temperatures will be at risk of
being tied or broken.
- A Red Flag Warning continues for Gregory County until 6 PM.
- Cooler and mostly dry as we head into the weekend (a few
sprinkles possible late tonight-early Saturday north of I-90).
- Rain chances return Monday, possibly mixing with or changing
to snow overnight into Tuesday morning. Areas south of I-90
are currently favored to receive the most precipitation,though
exact amounts/location are still uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Today has been another very warm November day. Highs should peak in
the upper 60s and even some low 80s in the south! Average
temperatures for November 14 is the mid 40s. That is a full 20 to
nearly 25 degrees above average. In the previous forecast the
potential for all four climate sites to tie or break records was
mentioned. Unfortunately clouds have been a little thicker today,
which has limited the potential to really smash those records.
However, there is still an hour or so before peak heating is
achieved. Stay tuned for the final results. For reference, the
previous records are:
November 14:
KFSD: 71/1953
KSUX: 73/1939
KHON: 71/1942
KMHE: 75/1953
In addition to the very warm temperatures, mildly breezy and very
dry conditions continue through the early part of this evening. Near
critical Fire Weather conditions exist for areas west of the James
River Valley. Have opted against expanding the Red Flag Warning due
to under performing winds this afternoon. The current warning
remains in good shape through its conclusion at 6pm CST, when
conditions begin to improve. More on this in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.
This evening a low pressure system will be located over central
Canada with a cold front draped south through North Dakota and
eastern Montana. This front is expected to drift south
overnight, turning winds at the surface to the northwest. With
the front comes chances for some high based light sprinkles to
light rain showers along and north of Highway 14. Accumulation,
if any, will be at most a hundredth, and most areas will remain
dry. In addition, a strong push of CAA behind the front will
temper our highs for the weekend. However, they will still
remain well above average in the 50s to low 60s Saturday, and
50s Sunday. Winds on Saturday will be breezy behind the cold
front, gusting 15-20 mph for most locations. Areas at higher
elevation in southwestern Minnesota may tap into the LLJ,
increasing gusts there to 25 mph at times. Winds become light
Saturday evening into Sunday as high pressure moves into the
region.
Early Monday morning we see a mid-to-upper shortwave over the
central Rockies begin to make its way east-northeast into our
region. As it does so it will trigger light rain showers. There
remains significant disagreement in mid-term guidance on storm track
and timing. However, all indicate rain moving in late Friday
morning, and continuing through Tuesday morning. Guidance agrees
that the majority of the precipitation will fall along the southern
Missouri counties into northwestern Iowa, with a medium probability
(50%) of 0.2" of QPF. Elsewhere there is a 50-60% probability
of QPF of 0.1 inches. Current ensemble guidance has been
trending a bit warmer with the overnight temperatures, keeping
most places above freezing except for our northern counties.
This will work to keep precipitation as mostly rain overnight.
That being said, areas at higher elevation in southwestern
Minnesota may see a transition to a wintry mix, to possibly all
snow by early Tuesday morning. Totals are uncertain at this time
and will be highly dependent on how the thermal profiles work
out.
Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be closer to seasonal averages, in
the 40s. Slightly warmer for Wednesday, in the 40s and 50s. Looking
aloft and to the west we see an upper trough digging south over the
western coast. This trough will progress east through the early part
of the week, brining another round of precipitation for the latter
half of the week. Details are very uncertain and confidence in any
specifics at this point is low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. High level cirrus
blankets the area early this evening. A cold front will push through
the area tonight, turning winds to out of the northwest in its wake.
Some low level wind shear (LLWS) is also expected A few light rain
showers are also possible generally north of I-90. Marginally breezy
northwest winds with gusts upt o 15 to 20 knots will pick up during
the afternoon hours tomorrow and will finish out the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Mildly gusty winds, very warm temperatures for November, and low
relative humidity continue into the late afternoon today. Winds have
underperformed somewhat today, with only occasional gusts
greater than 25 mph in south central South Dakota, and
northwestern Iowa. This afternoon have trended the winds down
from NBM guidance a little to better match current conditions.
Winds have also helped to mix down the very warm temperatures
(16-20 C) in the 925 mb level. This worked to warm afternoon
highs into the 70s and even 80s. The air mass through the column
today has remained very dry, allowing minimum relative humidity
values to fall to less than 25% for areas west of the James
River Valley. While these are near critical Fire Weather
conditions, the fact that the winds have underperformed has
prevented the need for an eastward expansion of the Red Flag
Warning this afternoon. Gregory county remains the only county
in a Warning which continues through 6pm CST. Cooler
temperatures and increased surface moisture will keep Fire
Weather conditions at bay for the rest of this weekend and much
of the upcoming week.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...Meyers
FIRE WEATHER...AJP
Office: UNR
FXUS63 KUNR 142332
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
432 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold front moves through tonight bringing lower temperatures
for the weekend along with the possibility of some precipitation
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025
20z surface analysis had cold front over northern MT/ND with a
couple of surface troughs slicing through the CWA. Gusty
west/southwest winds over southern SD. Water vapour loop showed
upper trough over southwest Canada/MT heading toward the northern
Plains with an upper low off the CA coast. These features the main
concerns.
Tonight/Saturday, upper trough pushes cold front through the CWA
with limited moisture, but low PoPs warranted in the
north/northwest closest to the best forcing. Few breezy spots
behind the front Saturday, but forecast soundings aren't excited
about much. Temperatures will be near guidance and noticeably
cooler for Saturday, but still above normal.
Sunday/Monday, upper low off the CA coast eventually ejects into
the northern Plains, but with lesser scope. Moisture return ahead
of it looks decent, but QG-forcing/frontogenesis focuses
east/south of the CWA for better QPF chances. Temperatures slide
back to normal by Monday as cold air advection behind system and
cloud cover conspire.
The rest of next week should be seasonally cool, but still a few
degrees above normal as weak disturbances slip through the
northern plains under mean upper split-flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 429 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. A dry
cold front is moving through the region this evening and shifting
southwest winds to northwesterly.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 126 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025
Gusty west/southwest winds over southern SD have combined with
minimum relative humidities in the teens to produce critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon. Conditions will rapidly improve
after 5pm, so no changes to the current forecast expected. A cold
front tonight will bring fire weather relief for the weekend.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
SDZ322-325-326-332>335.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson
Office: ABR
FXUS63 KABR 150204 AAB
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
804 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
more into the 30s and 40s early next week.
- Rain/snow chances (30-50%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
precipitation placement/amounts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Currently, got a cold front working southeast through the region.
There is some strong mid-level (700-500hpa) forcing coupled with
a 110-130+knot upper level (300-200hpa) jet streak over
western/central North Dakota extending down into western South
Dakota, as well. The net result is light to moderate banded rain
extending from northwest South Dakota up into central North
Dakota. During the next 12 hours, these features will shift east
toward the border of Minnesota and the Dakotas. Eventually, PoPs
may have to be extended further south across the CWA. Measurable
precipitation (0.01in or greater) still appears feasible mainly
across the northern tier counties of north central and northeast
South Dakota/west central Minnesota. No changes planned to
overnight temperatures right now. Monitoring for the potential
need to drag small measurable PoPs southward across the CWA for
the overnight hours.
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Temps have warmed well into the 70s across the far southwest CWA,
with winds gusting around 25 mph close to the White River. Will be
monitoring potential for Red Flag issuance this afternoon, but will
see if critical conditions expand much further north through
Lyman/Jones counties. If it stays rather localized to far southern
portions of that area, will likely refrain from headlines. RH down
that way ranging between 20 and 25 percent with readings likely to
drop a bit lower through the rest of the afternoon.
No changes to the rain chances (20-40%) across the northern CWA
tonight as the frontal boundary moves south through the area. Any
rainfall though will be very light and likely be less than a tenth.
Will be fighting dry air initially and will likely take until after
06Z for better saturation to develop.
With the Monday system, there's still some uncertainty in regards to
the path of what now appears to be a potential closed 500mb low
moving east-northeast across the central/northern plains. Precip
placement still varies, but overall the ENS/GEFS show 24-hr mean
precip totals to be less than 0.25in. 90th percentile 24-hr QPF is
on the order of 0.25in - 0.40in.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Will watch the
guidance/satellite/obs for low probability of a band of MVFR CIGs
developing/moving into the forecast area Saturday morning behind
a passing cold front. Confidence on areal coverage is low, but
will take a deeper dive into the potential for the 06Z TAFs.
Sticking with the potential for a period of low-level wind shear
(LLWS) tonight in association with a cold frontal passage. Already
seeing two different bands of light to moderate rain falling over
western North Dakota. There may be enough post-frontal banded-type
forcing across northern SD later tonight to produce some of this
light to moderate rain over the KMBG and KABR terminals. PROB30's
have been introduced for this potential.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10
