sd discuss
Office: FSD
FXUS63 KFSD 031138
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold, below normal temperatures continue through the weekend.
- Isolated light precipitation, a mix of snow and light
freezing rain, diminishes through the early morning hours.
Scattered flurries are possible through mid morning. Be
prepared for isolated slick spots.
- Wind chill values drop to -10 to -25 in most locations tonight
into early Thursday.
- Stronger winds expected Thursday into Thursday night, possibly
leading to patchy blowing snow across parts of southwestern
MN and northwestern IA.
- Details remain uncertain, but additional snow and
precipitation chances continue this weekend into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
TODAY: A mild morning with temperatures warming a bit early in the
overnight, and staying steady or slowly falling, thanks to WAA
winning out and continued stratus. Our 1 AM CST temperatures have
been in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and most locations have started
falling through 2 AM. Cold front continues to move though the
southern portions of our forecast area, so any lingering
precipitation should come to an end through the overnight hours
south of I-90. Elsewhere and through the morning hours, scattered
flurries linger. Could see some patchy slick spots, especially on
elevated and untreated surfaces.
With the push of CAA and colder temperatures, expect steady to
falling temperatures through the day today. Highs will have already
been reached this morning, and expect afternoon temperatures in the
teens and 20s. Expect breezy winds, with gusts today around 25 mph,
leading to wind chills near to below zero.
TONIGHT: Much colder 925mb temperatures and clearing skies thanks
to surface high pressure allows temperatures to fall into the teens
and single digits below zero east of I-29, to the single digits
above with some lingering cloud cover toward south central SD. Even
with lighter winds, wind chills fall to as cold as -25 F. Areas
across southwestern MN into northwestern IA look to be the lowest.
Some locations do drop to Cold Weather Advisory criteria for a few
hours; however, conditions are marginal enough to forgo a headline
at this time.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Surface high pressure moves to the east Thursday,
and we'll see stronger winds between the compressed surface pressure
gradient and mixing into some stronger winds aloft. May see some
gusts Thursday through Thursday night in the higher elevations
around 35 mph. Because of this have added blowing snow mention to
the grids.
Increased WAA and continued southerly flow should aid in warming us
up into the 20s to mid 30s, warmest in south central SD. Short wave
and subtle surface front move through Thursday night into Friday,
with a stronger wave and front moving through during the day Friday.
May see another non-dirunal temperature swing Friday. Additionally,
can't rule out some isolated precipitation with through this period
with the boundaries, but guidance shows both fronts being fairly
moisture starved so most should stay dry.
SATURDAY ONWARD: Guidance diverges through the weekend with regards
to any waves/systems. Generally, near to below normal temperatures
continue through the weekend, with some warmer temperatures on the
horizon early next week.
Precipitation wise, although models are split on where a wave tracks
Saturday into Saturday night, light precipitation is likely (60% or
more across the area of measurable precipitation). The GFS tracks
precip through the southern MO Valley, the Canadian across
southwestern MN, and the ECMWF in the middle. Timing and strength
vary quite a bit, so confidence is low in details.
Northwesterly flow prevails through the early part of next week, and
could see a few short waves move across the northern and central
Plains. A stronger wave is progged to slide into the region mid next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
MVFR/IFR and very patchy LIFR stratus continues through the
morning and into the afternoon hours. Flurries, which could
briefly reduce visibility to MVFR conditions, are expected to
taper off through mid morning. Conditions are expected to return
to VFR conditions later this afternoon and into this evening.
Northerly winds today gust to around 20 to 25 knots, with some
stronger sustained winds east of I-29. Winds become light and
variable this evening before turning southerly overnight.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
Office: UNR
FXUS63 KUNR 031122
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
422 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Upslope snow over the northern Black Hills diminishes this
morning
- Colder today, following by a very slow warming trend
- Unsettled weather under northwest flow aloft into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
08z surface analysis had high pressure over central Canada which
was pushing a cold front south/southwest into the CWA. Cold front
extended from southeast MT to south-central SD. Water vapour loop
had splitting trough from central Canada to the Rockies slipping
southeast. Embedded shortwave over southeast MT assisting light
snow along/just ahead of the cold front per regional radar loops.
Upslope pulsing occurring from time-to-time over the northern
Black Hills. Northwest flow aloft will drive the weather during
the forecast period.
Today, MT shortwave moves through the area with residual
forcing/moisture along cold front keeping light snow going into
the morning hours. Subsidence/drying takes over this afternoon
except for perhaps southwest SD this afternoon, given lee side
convergence. Froude numbers/low level moisture supportive of
upslope-enhanced snowfall for the northern Black Hills/higher
northern/northeast foothills early this morning. Will keep Winter
Weather Advisory until 6am. After that, additional accumulations
an inch or less. Temperatures will be tricky today with current
readings above forecast highs, but feel cold air advection behind
cold front will be sufficient to push highs down into the 20s.
Tonight will be chilly as skies clear. Return flow develops for
Thursday with warmer temperatures on tap - pretty close to
guidance.
The rest of the forecast looks unsettled as speedy northwest flow
aloft slings a series of disturbances through the northern
Plains. We'll be on the edge of the warmer air initially, but the
latest ensemble guidance shows a slow warming trend into early
next week, albeit with increasing temperature spreads. Best chance
of accumulating snow will continue to be over the northern Black
Hills given forecast boundary layer flow regime. But, can't rule
out a quick shot of snow for anyone, especially at night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 420 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Areas of IFR/MVFR VSBYS due to light snow will wane this morning,
but linger over southwestern SD this afternoon. Widespread
IFR/MVFR CIGS are expected today with slow improvement this
afternoon. Conditions will trend VFR tonight.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST early this morning for
SDZ024.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST early this morning for
WYZ057.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
Office: ABR
FXUS63 KABR 031141 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
541 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold temperatures today/tonight with highs in the single digits
and teens, lows in the single digits below and teens below
zero. Wind chill values from 15 below to 25 below zero east of
the Missouri River.
- Downslope winds expected in the Coteau region on Thursday, with
gusts potentially over 40 mph. This may create areas of
blowing/drifting snow.
- Snow chances (20-40%) return Friday/Saturday and early next week
as more weather systems have the potential to move through the
region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Getting some flurries/very light snow across the eastern CWA early
this morning under the stratus deck moving south over the area. Had
earlier inserted this into the forecast through the early morning
hours. Also seeing another wave moving southeast across western SD,
with snow occurring there as well. This may affect the far southwest
CWA through the early morning hours. There is some progress to the
southward movement of the clearing line as it advances across ND, a
bit more pronounced over eastern ND to where the eastern CWA may
start to see a clearing trend after sunrise. Still a lot of 25-35
mph gusts on the back side of the passing cold front which is well
to our south now. Expecting some residual drifting snow/patchy
blowing snow (where snow has not crusted over) across the Coteau
region through the early morning hours. Although, as the cold
surface high builds in today, expecting winds to go lighter by
afternoon and will put an end to any of that. With the cold air
advection and 925mb temps dropping to between -15C and -18C, looking
for temperatures today stuck in the single digits and teens. There
are some indications in hi-res data (cloud cover/reflectivity/PoPs)
of possible streamers off Lake Oahe with the colder arctic air
overspreading the region. Did add some low PoPs for this in the
Pierre region.
Surface high moves off to the southeast tonight and we quickly go
into a warm air advection pattern with developing south/southwest
winds, more so between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. Before then though,
still expecting a period of light winds and mostly clear skies over
a good portion of the CWA, and temps should fall quickly into the
single digits below and teens below zero for many areas east of the
Missouri River. Continued the trend of going colder than NBM values
for tonight's lows. Wind chill values continue to range from 15
below to 25 below zero for much of the northern/eastern CWA.
Warm front moves back into the area on Thursday, with strong warm
air advection as 925mb temps rise back around 0C to +2C across the
area by 00Z Friday. Winds turn westerly and should see surface temps
rebound nicely into the 20s and 30s, with warmest readings over
central SD. Will also be watching potential for downslope winds
during the day Thursday as southwest 925mb winds from 30 to 40 knots
develop. Used hi-res wind guidance for Thursday as NBM is likely too
low in the Coteau/downslope region. HREF mean wind gusts show 40-45
mph across the downslope area and went close to this in the
grids/forecast. This did introduce patchy blowing snow to parts of
the eastern CWA on Thursday, but recent mild temps and light rain
followed by a quick freeze may have allowed for some of the snow
pack to be crusted over. Although, feel blowing snow output was well
represented where the least crusting has occurred over the far
eastern CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
As the period begins Thursday night into Friday, broad northwest
flow aloft will continue to be the dominant upper flow feature
across the region. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates a
weak shortwave will be working through the region. A clipper type
low pressure system will be tracking southeast from south central
Canada into the western Great Lakes. An associated warm front treks
west to east through the Dakotas into Minnesota. There won't be much
if any moisture associated with this wave so would only anticipate
flurries or brief snow showers late Thursday into early Friday.
Mainly dry conditions expected the latter half of Friday through the
overnight into early Saturday. The forecast area looks to remain
under the influence of a relatively mild air mass on Friday before
the cold front associated with the aforementioned clipper type low,
tracks north to south and sends another shot of colder air into the
region.
The next upper wave is then progged to push across the region the
first half the upcoming weekend. This wave has the potential to be a
bit more organized and stronger than the first mentioned above. This
wave will generate another clipper type low that is progged to track
northwest to southeast from the Northern High Plains into the
Northern Plains. The exact track of it remains in question and
guidance doesn't have the best handle on that at this point. The
eventual outcome of this will play a part in who may or may not get
precipitation or to put it another way, who will see more snow
versus others. Nonetheless, a swath of snowfall is expected
somewhere across the Dakotas Saturday into Saturday night. Another
arctic front will pass through the region in the wake of this wave
and set off another round of CAA and colder temperatures to round
out the weekend into early next week. The broad northwest flow aloft
will continue to persist through the first half of next week.
There's nothing to suggest that we won't see continued periodic
upper waves to move through the region and deliver more bouts of
on/off precipitation and an up and down fluctuating temperature
pattern between air masses that originate in the Arctic or the
Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGs will continue to affect the region during the first part
of the TAF period. Areas of -SN/-SHSN will also affect KABR/KATY
early this morning, with VSBY perhaps down to 5-6SM. Northerly
surface winds will becoming VRB this evening, before switching to
a southerly direction overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT
