sd discuss
Office: FSD
FXUS63 KFSD 030904
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
304 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold, below normal temperatures continue through the weekend.
- Isolated light precipitation, a mix of snow and light
freezing rain, diminishes through the early morning hours.
Scattered flurries are possible through mid morning. Be
prepared for isolated slick spots.
- Wind chill values drop to -10 to -25 in most locations tonight
into early Thursday.
- Stronger winds expected Thursday into Thursday night, possibly
leading to patchy blowing snow across parts of southwestern
MN and northwestern IA.
- Details remain uncertain, but additional snow and
precipitation chances continue this weekend into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
TODAY: A mild morning with temperatures warming a bit early in the
overnight, and staying steady or slowly falling, thanks to WAA
winning out and continued stratus. Our 1 AM CST temperatures have
been in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and most locations have started
falling through 2 AM. Cold front continues to move though the
southern portions of our forecast area, so any lingering
precipitation should come to an end through the overnight hours
south of I-90. Elsewhere and through the morning hours, scattered
flurries linger. Could see some patchy slick spots, especially on
elevated and untreated surfaces.
With the push of CAA and colder temperatures, expect steady to
falling temperatures through the day today. Highs will have already
been reached this morning, and expect afternoon temperatures in the
teens and 20s. Expect breezy winds, with gusts today around 25 mph,
leading to wind chills near to below zero.
TONIGHT: Much colder 925mb temperatures and clearing skies thanks
to surface high pressure allows temperatures to fall into the teens
and single digits below zero east of I-29, to the single digits
above with some lingering cloud cover toward south central SD. Even
with lighter winds, wind chills fall to as cold as -25 F. Areas
across southwestern MN into northwestern IA look to be the lowest.
Some locations do drop to Cold Weather Advisory criteria for a few
hours; however, conditions are marginal enough to forgo a headline
at this time.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Surface high pressure moves to the east Thursday,
and we'll see stronger winds between the compressed surface pressure
gradient and mixing into some stronger winds aloft. May see some
gusts Thursday through Thursday night in the higher elevations
around 30 mph. Because of this have added blowing snow mention to
the grids.
Increased WAA and continued southerly flow should aid in warming us
up into the 20s to mid 30s, warmest in south central SD. Short wave
and subtle surface front move through Thursday night into Friday,
with a stronger wave and front moving through during the day Friday.
May see another non-dirunal temperature swing Friday. Additionally,
can't rule out some isolated precipitation with through this period
with the boundaries, but guidance shows both fronts being fairly
moisture starved so most should stay dry.
SATURDAY ONWARD: Guidance diverges through the weekend with regards
to any waves/systems. Generally, near to below normal temperatures
continue through the weekend, with some warmer temperatures on the
horizon early next week.
Precipitation wise, although models are split on where a wave tracks
Saturday into Saturday night, light precipitation is likely (60% or
more across the area of measurable precipitation). The GFS tracks
precip through the southern MO Valley, the Canadian across
southwestern MN, and the ECMWF in the middle. Timing and strength
vary quite a bit, so confidence is low in details.
Northwesterly flow prevails through the early part of next week, and
could see a few short waves move across the northern and central
Plains. A stronger wave is progged to slide into the region mid next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Mostly MVFR with occasional IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue
this TAF period mainly due to lingering stratus. Taking a look
at satellite imagery, pockets of flurries and wintry mix continue
to progress eastwards this evening. Forecast remains on track
for most of this activity to exit the area around 06z (12 am).
From here, lingering MVFR to LIFR stratus will persist for the
first half of Wednesday before VFR conditions return. Lastly,
westerly surface winds will become more northerly and breezy
overnight with the breeziness continuing throughout the day on
Wednesday to end the TAF period.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...05
Office: UNR
FXUS63 KUNR 030857
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
157 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Upslope snow over the northern Black Hills diminishes this
morning
- Colder today, following by a very slow warming trend
- Unsettled weather under northwest flow aloft into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
08z surface analysis had high pressure over central Canada which
was pushing a cold front south/southwest into the CWA. Cold front
extended from southeast MT to south-central SD. Water vapour loop
had splitting trough from central Canada to the Rockies slipping
southeast. Embedded shortwave over southeast MT assisting light
snow along/just ahead of the cold front per regional radar loops.
Upslope pulsing occurring from time-to-time over the northern
Black Hills. Northwest flow aloft will drive the weather during
the forecast period.
Today, MT shortwave moves through the area with residual
forcing/moisture along cold front keeping light snow going into
the morning hours. Subsidence/drying takes over this afternoon
except for perhaps southwest SD this afternoon, given lee side
convergence. Froude numbers/low level moisture supportive of
upslope-enhanced snowfall for the northern Black Hills/higher
northern/northeast foothills early this morning. Will keep Winter
Weather Advisory until 6am. After that, additional accumulations
an inch or less. Temperatures will be tricky today with current
readings above forecast highs, but feel cold air advection behind
cold front will be sufficient to push highs down into the 20s.
Tonight will be chilly as skies clear. Return flow develops for
Thursday with warmer temperatures on tap - pretty close to
guidance.
The rest of the forecast looks unsettled as speedy northwest flow
aloft slings a series of disturbances through the northern
Plains. We'll be on the edge of the warmer air initially, but the
latest ensemble guidance shows a slow warming trend into early
next week, albeit with increasing temperature spreads. Best chance
of accumulating snow will continue to be over the northern Black
Hills given forecast boundary layer flow regime. But, can't rule
out a quick shot of snow for anyone, especially at night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1015 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Scattered snow showers will continue through the overnight hours,
with coverage and intensity picking up after 07-09z across far
western SD and NE WY. MVFR/IFR and transient LIFR conditions are
possible in snow showers. Downsloping conditions at KRAP are
resulting in fluctuating ceilings (MVFR to VFR and back), although
MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast to prevail after 10z. Conditions
will slowly improve from west to east by late Wednesday morning,
after 16-18z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST early this morning for
SDZ024.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST early this morning for
WYZ057.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...SE
Office: ABR
FXUS63 KABR 030532
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1132 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mix of light snow or freezing rain continues to slowly end
this evening into the early overnight hours.
- Very cold air across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night,
with lows in the single digits below and teens below zero. Wind
chills may reach 15 below to 25 below zero in the James River
valley.
- Snow chances (20-40%) return Friday/Saturday and Monday as more
weather systems have the potential to move through the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
We continue to monitor the light precipitation across the
forecast area, ranging from light rain around Pierre to drizzle at
Bismarck. Over our eastern counties, light snow is the main
precipitation type when it is precipitating. Small pockets of
drizzle or freezing drizzle remain possible through 06Z. The
Winter Weather Advisory for light icing remains for Spink and
Clark Counties until 9pm CT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
At 1 PM CST, vigorous warming event ongoing from west to east across
the CWA. Most of the forecast area west of Brown/Spink counties have
to or above the freezing mark. From Brown/Spink counties eastward,
temperatures are warming through the upper teens and 20s. One batch
of precipitation has moved across the CWA, producing sleet and
freezing rain, earlier, across portions of central South Dakota.
Currently, this area of light radar returns is working through the
James River valley, producing snow, sleet and freezing rain. The
temperature disparity is a warm front moving east across the CWA.
Out ahead of the boundary, winds are generally south, while behind
the boundary, winds have become breezy at 10 to 25 mph with some
higher gusts out of the west. Additional light to moderate
precipitation (rain) is working into the west river (Missouri River
valley) forecast zones at this time.
From late this afternoon through tonight, will be watching how the
low level WAA pattern affects p-type across portions of central and
northeast South Dakota until the cold front sweeping in from the
north turns off the warm air and low level CAA pushing the thermal
profile completely below the freezing mark, CWA-wide, establishing
an all snow p-type for the rest of the night. Until then, most of
central South Dakota should be warm enough through a deep enough
near surface layer to support plain rain. Further north and east
into the James River valley (and perhaps up on the Coteau in Clark
County), the zone for sleet/freezing rain potential merits
consideration for a winter weather advisory for "wintry mix" until
~03Z, when the cold fropa should cool things down to an all snow
scenario. With the cold frontal forcing and post frontal CAA, there
may be a period of time before the stratus cools down enough to
touch the DGZ and light snow/flurries could happen late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Until then, (while the stratus layer is cooling
through the 0C to -10C range, would not be shocked if light freezing
drizzle was reported falling out of the post-cold-frontal stratus
layer.
Once any lingering flurries end on Wednesday, the forecast map is
surface high pressure, with a low stratus deck over the western
forecast zones gradually making a push north and east toward the end
of the day and on into Wednesday night. Wednesday night's low
temperatures could be realized early Wednesday evening, before
increasing cloud cover and low level WAA (late) either steady
temperatures out or cause a non-diurnal temperature trend to
develop. Still seeing wind chill values Wednesday night bottoming
out between -20F and -30F.
Still seeing a positive PNA pattern in play during the out periods.
Although, by the end of the period, the western CONUS upper level
ridge appears to be flattening. The out periods are just littered
with short-lived periods of light precipitation potential.
Primarily, ensemble probabilities lean mainly snow P-type for these
systems. Although, the precipitation chances heading into Friday may
include a freezing p-type potential when low level WAA will be at a
premium. Low level thermal advection will be quite active during the
period, with the pendulum swinging back and forth from cold to warm
(on Thursday) and then cold again, briefly during the weekend, and
then possibly warm again heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Ceilings vary from IFR to MVFR (was briefly VFR at PIR but settled
back into MVFR). The ceilings are expected to be lowest/IFR at ABR
early this morning and ATY through 17Z. Winds have been able to
increase out of the north with gusts of 20-30kts, which will
weaken slowly by daybreak as the surface high sinks across
southern Saskatchewan and northeastern MT. Expect VFR conditions
to return to all locations during the afternoon hours Wednesday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...06
