sc discuss
Office: CHS
FXUS62 KCHS 281743
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1243 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A storm system
should bring some impacts to our area late Monday into Tuesday.
High pressure returns for the middle to end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This Afternoon: Aloft, a large mid-upper lvl trough extending across
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will gradually shift east
across the nearby Atlantic, placing a west-northwest zonal flow
across the Southeast. At the sfc, high pressure centered across the
Ohio River Valley will gradually shift east to the Mid-Atlantic
states, helping to maintain dry and sunny conditions across the
local area. The main issue will be cooler temps as cold air
advection battles a downslope flow throughout the day. In general,
highs should range in the low-mid 50s, warmest across Southeast
Georgia. These temps are about 10-15 degrees below normal for late
November.
Tonight: High pressure will prevail across the region through the
night, resulting in dry weather conditions across the entire area.
The main concern will continue to address freezing temps locally.
Winds could decouple early evening under few cirrus clouds,
supporting radiational cooling prior to more substantial cirrus
coverage after midnight. Although these clouds could limit overall
cooling potential late, low temps are still expected to easily reach
the freezing mark across all inland counties. In general, low temps
should dip into the mid-upper 20s inland to mid-upper 30s across
coastal counties. Locations along the beaches could stay in the
lower 40s, especially along Southeast Georgia beaches where sfc
winds become more onshore late.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: Southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail,
especially as a trough passes well to our north late Sunday.
At the surface, High pressure will prevail through the weekend,
shifting well offshore on Sunday. Weak troughing will be offshore on
Sunday, followed by a cold front moving through Sunday night. The
NBM keeps our area dry on Saturday, then has slight chance POPs just
about everywhere late Sunday. No QPF is forecasted during this time
period. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal on
Saturday, then several degrees above normal on Sunday. Low
temperatures will trend higher into Sunday night.
Monday: Southwesterly flow will prevail in the mid-levels.
A cold front will be offshore in the morning while High pressure is
to the northwest. The High will pass to the north during the day,
with a storm systems developing over the Lower MS Valley late in the
day. Even though moisture will trend higher, the NBM maintains
slight chance POPs across portions of our area with no QPF. High
temperatures will be several degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A storm system will cross through our area on Tuesday. POPs quickly
rise Monday night, peaking in the categorical range on Tuesday. It's
still too early to determine exact rainfall amounts, but significant
flooding rains are not in the forecast. High temperatures will be
near normal on Tuesday. High pressure and drier conditions returns
Tuesday night and last through Thursday. High temperatures will be
below normal during this time period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z
Saturday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Saturday. There are low
probabilities of flight restrictions Sunday and Monday. A storm
system will bring higher probabilities of flight restrictions late
Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
This Afternoon and Tonight: High pressure centered across the Ohio
River Valley will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic states, leading
to a weaker pressure and diminishing northerly wind during the day.
In general, wind speeds will range between 10-15 kt. Seas will also
subside about a foot, generally to 1-3 ft across local waters,
although a few 4 ft seas could linger on near 60 nm off the Georgia
coast. Overnight, winds should slightly veer to north-northeast and
gradually increase to 15-20 kt early morning, in response to the
pressure gradient tightening across local waters. Seas should also
build up to 2-4 ft prior to daybreak Saturday.
Extended Marine: High pressure will prevail through the weekend,
bringing elevated winds and seas. But no marine headlines are
expected. A storm system should bring some impacts to the coastal
waters starting Monday and lasting into Tuesday. Winds and seas will
increase, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of
our waters on Tuesday. High pressure then returns on Wednesday, with
conditions improving.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Office: CAE
FXUS62 KCAE 281723
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1223 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather conditions remain in place through
Saturday. A few showers are possible along and ahead of a cold
front on Sunday. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is
expected with the next storm system Monday night into Tuesday.
High pressure then builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Continued well below normal temperatures and very dry
This afternoon: Surface high pressure will build over the
Carolinas with weak cold advection today. A very dry air mass is
in place with PWATs less than a quarter inch and dewpoints in
the teens which will result in critical RH values this
afternoon. Fortunately winds will be relatively light as the
axis of the high builds in. High temperatures will be cooler
than yesterday and struggle into the lower 50s under mostly
sunny skies.
Tonight: The center of high pressure will build into the Mid
Atlantic and Carolinas overnight. This should provide near ideal
radiational cooling with a very dry air mass in place and light
to near calm winds. The one complicating factor is the
potential of widespread higher clouds moving over the region.
MOS guidance continues to come in several degrees colder than
NBM guidance and NBM50th percentile is much more in line with
MOS and think this is more likely to occur if clouds remain thin
enough. Expect temperatures to drop very quickly with sunset
and loss of winds with the very dry air mass in place. Expect
lows to fall well into the 20s and if clouds remain thin enough
lows in the lower 20s are certainly possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Continued cool and dry on Saturday with warmer temperatures
on Sunday, especially towards the Coastal Plain.
- A cold front approaches the region on Sunday with a chance for
a few passing showers along and ahead of the boundary.
Saturday and Saturday Night: Surface high pressure centered
over West Virginia at daybreak will shift east in response to an
upper trough and developing storm system over the Central
CONUS. Another cool and dry day is expected with only modest
moisture return. Morning cloudiness is expected to clear out by
midday followed by increasing clouds at night ahead of the next
storm system. Temperatures will be similar to today with
forecast highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Increasing clouds
should limit cooling at night but there could be a large range
in low temperatures with upper 20s in the Northern Midlands and
mid-30s in the CSRA.
Sunday and Sunday Night: A cold front crosses the FA but is now
expected to clear the entire region by daybreak Monday, in
response to high pressure building in from the north and west.
Moisture is expected to briefly climb to around an inch ahead of
the boundary before dropping again behind it. Support is
lacking with this front and many locations may end up dry, with
the highest probabilities across the north and west which will
be closer to the better lift. Model guidance continues to show a
sharp northwest to southeast temperatures gradient with
forecast highs ranging from the lower to mid 50s to the mid to
upper 60s. Abundant cloud cover limits cooling again at night
with lows ranging from the lower 30s to the mid-40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Mainly cloudy and cooler on Monday with a low end risk for
showers, mainly in the CSRA.
- The next storm system moves in Monday night into Tuesday when
a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely.
- High pressure brings drier weather to close out the period.
The weather pattern on Monday continues to resemble an in-situ
wedge setup, keeping the FA cool and mainly cloudy on Monday.
PWATs begin to increase again as the next storm system begins to
develop over the western Gulf. A few showers remain possible on
Monday, especially across the CSRA, but the majority of the
rain should hold off until late Monday night when low pressure
quickly approaches from the southwest. Confidence remains high
that there will be a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. While
slight timing differences remain, Tuesday morning appears to be
the most likely time for the heaviest rainfall. High pressure
then builds in behind the departing storm system ushering in
another cool, dry air mass. Below normal daytime temperatures
and near to below normal nighttime temperatures are favored
through the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.
High pressure continues to build into the area through tonight.
A very dry air mass is in place and will prevent any
precipitation and should inhibit any fog concerns. Winds will be
from the northwest today around 5 to 10 knots then diminish to
less than 5 knots to near calm overnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases
Saturday which will lead to higher chances for restrictions and
widespread rain from Sunday into early next week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Office: GSP
FXUS62 KGSP 281843
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal high temperatures stick around through next week. Dry
and cold high pressure remains in control through Saturday before a
cold front brings precipitation chances Sunday. Drier conditions
develop briefly Monday before a low pressure system from the Gulf
brings better precipitation chances Monday night and Tuesday. Dry
high pressure returns Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Friday...
Key Message 1: Light winds diminish this evening as high pressure
builds in.
Key Message 2: Coldest night of the season expected tonight.
Key Message 3: Continued cold and dry Saturday with temperatures
well below normal.
A sprawling 1034 mb surface high centered over western Illinois
continues to extend southeastward across the Mid and Lower
Mississippi Valley at midday. Farther east, a lee trough is analyzed
along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Our region remains
on the eastern flank of the high, situated between the ridge
axis to the west and the lee trough to the east. This setup has
maintained breezy west to north winds through early afternoon. Winds
will steadily weaken toward sunset as the surface trough shifts
downstream and the high builds eastward, producing a relaxing
pressure gradient across the Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
Tonight, the center of the high passes just north of the area,
supporting favorable radiational cooling conditions. High clouds
will stream overhead late, but they should have minimal impact on
temperatures. Ensemble temperature guidance is in good agreement,
with only a three degree spread between the NBM twenty fifth and
seventy fifth percentiles for forecast lows. A cold airmass and
ideal cooling conditions will set the stage for the coldest night
of the season thus far.
Lows are expected to fall into the teens across the mountains and
the lower to mid twenties across the Foothills and Piedmont. The
table below compares each site’s previously observed coldest
temperature (1st column) to the deterministic forecast low
temperature tonight (2nd column), and the NBM ensemble probabilities
that tonight will be colder than the season’s current coldest
night (3rd column).
Asheville, NC: 23F (11/11) | 22F | 100 percent
Charlotte, NC: 29F (11/11) | 27F | 100 percent
Hickory, NC: 26F (11/11) | 23F | 90 percent
Greenville, SC: 25F (11/11) | 25F | 75 percent
Anderson, SC: 26F (11/11) | 27F | 60 percent
High pressure shifts east on Saturday and moves toward the Mid
Atlantic coast, but it will continue to control our weather. A
weak southerly return flow develops by afternoon as warmer air
begins to approach from the southwest. However, the warm
advection arrives slowly, so highs on Saturday should be similar
to today, mainly mid to upper 40s outside the mountains with
30s at higher elevations. Ensemble temperature spread remains
small, with a two to three degree difference between the twenty
fifth and seventy fifth percentiles.
For dewpoints, the forecast blends the NBM twenty fifth percentile
with time-lagged HRRR guidance, which is currently handling moisture
fields well. A deep mixed layer should promote downward mixing of
drier air again this afternoon and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 11 am EST Friday:
Key message: Brief period of wintry precip remains possible in
portions of the mountains and possibly NW NC Piedmont late Saturday
night into Sunday morning ahead of a weak cold front.
SW flow remains progged to ramp up Saturday evening, along and
downstream of approaching weak baroclinic zone. 45 kt LLJ will
translate atop the cwfa after 06Z Sunday promoting stout winds
at higher elevations. Light pcpn should be initially forced by the
aforementioned LLJ, and the resultant diabatic cooling toward
critical wet bulb temperatures will give rise to the chances for
pockets of freezing rain to develop mainly in the mountains by early
Sunday morning. Given the transient nature of the parent sfc hipres
and overall light nature of the pcpn, by the time precip becomes
more likely during the day Sunday, temps in most areas should be
able to warm above freezing. With the frontolytic nature of the
cold front, numerous showers Sunday morning will give way to
diminishing chances in the afternoon.
Sfc ridging looks to reassert itself on Monday with a CAD regime
seeming more likely to develop by the end of the day. We will be
watching for the likelihood of western gulf cyclogenesis on Monday
and the quick return of SW flow and moisture into the Southern
Appalachians. Thicker cloudiness remains fcst to overspread the
cwfa, and in concert with chilly NE sfc flow, maximum temperatures
will be 8-10 Deg F below the December 1st normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1130 am EST Friday:
Key message 1: Precipitation redeveloping by Monday night. There
remains the threat of a period of wintry weather for the NC
mountains/foothills and NW NC Piedmont. Rain tapers off Tuesday
afternoon, perhaps ending as a period of snow in the high mountains.
Ongoing high likelihood that the region will receive a round of
briefly heavy precipitation at some point late Monday night and/or
Tuesday as deepening Miller type A low affects the Southern
Appalachians. Based on the 28/12Z NBM, The NC mountains northeast of
the French Broad Valley, and parts of the NC Piedmont along and
north of I-40 remain the locations where the better chances exist
for a period of of wintry mix, with the highest p-type probability
being fzra.
Dry-slot looks to punch through before 00z Wednesday bringing a fast
end to widespread pcpn although cooling temps within the TN border
counties will support a transition to snow showers there on the back
side of the system.
Key message 2: Dry high pressure should return by late Tuesday
night, with daytime temps trending milder Wed and Thu. Perhaps next
round of rain will be on Friday.
Sunshine returns on Wednesday as high pressure builds atop the
region with moderating return flow developing Thursday. Gulf
moisture tap may return pcpn to the region on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are
expected through the period. Northwest winds, varying between north
and west, have begun to weaken early this afternoon. A few gusts
of 14 to 18 kt remain possible for the first few hours of the
18Z TAF cycle, but mixing will diminish quickly between 20Z and
22Z. Sustained winds will ease to around 5 kt or less by sunset,
with light and variable winds expected overnight.
Skies will remain SKC through late afternoon, followed by increasing
cirrus from the west this evening. High clouds will gradually
thicken overnight and into Saturday morning. A few patches of
altocumulus may develop late, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for mention until after daybreak Saturday.
Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night despite
increasing cloud cover. Rain chances return on Sunday with potential
sub VFR restrictions. A brief period of drier weather is expected
Monday before another round of rain and restrictions arrives
Tuesday. Dry and mainly VFR conditions should return Wednesday
and Thursday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JRK
