sc discuss
Office: CHS
FXUS62 KCHS 012333
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
733 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail through the weekend. A
low pressure system could impact the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today: Surface high pressure is currently located near the Georgia/
South Carolina border this afternoon with temperatures quickly
warming into the mid 60s. The latest KCHS 01.12z sounding
revealed a PWAT of 0.33" (or near the moving min average for
this time of year). Looking at full mixing this afternoon, and
bringing the parcel down from the top of KCHS sounding mixed
layer would support high temperatures in the upper 60s. No
precipitation is expected.
Tonight: Weak surface high pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast overnight. As this occurs, a weak coastal trough will move
inland with stratocu moving inland (especially across SC where
boundary layer moisture is slightly higher). Any shower activity
that does develop, should remain offshore through sunrise Sunday.
Low temperatures are currently forecast to be in the low to mid 40s
inland, with upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast. However, how
far inland the coastal trough pushes is still uncertain and if
the trough holds up slightly near the coast, mid to upper 30s
will be likely inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All global models show a closed upper low moving from western TN at
the beginning of the period, southeast across GA and offshore into
the Atlantic waters by Monday. This upper level low continues moving
east-southeast into the Atlantic on Tuesday as it weakens. Behind
this upper low, deep layer riding builds from the west by Monday and
Tuesday.
Rainfall chances are expected to increase by later Sunday into the
first half of Monday as the upper low moves across the area.
However, rainfall amounts are not expected to be particularly heavy,
with most models indicating that rainfall totals will be 0.5 inches
or less. The rain is expected to be more showery in nature, with
intensities in the light to possibly moderate at times. Thus, the
threat for any flooding seems minimal at this time. The highest
rainfall amounts are expected to be concentrated over the coastal
areas and much of our SC zones. However, unfortunately, the lowest
amounts look to be well inland, where ground conditions continue to
be very dry.
Temperatures are expected to continue slightly below normal through
this period. Highs generally in the upper 60s SC and lower 70s over
GA zones. All areas likely not making it out of the 60s Monday when
the most cloud cover and highest rainfall chances are expected. Lows
ranging from the mid 40s to around 50, except lower 50s closer to
the coast through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A rather tranquil and dry weather pattern is still expected for
through the remainder of the work week. Models indicate zonal upper
flow will persist through much of the period, possibly becoming more
southwesterly by Friday ahead of the next developing upper level
trough over the central part of the country. At the surface, high
pressure remaining mostly over and north of the area. A weak front
may approach the region from the north later Thursday, but little/no
precip. expected. By Friday, the surface ridge will likely move just
offshore, allowing low level winds to veer to southwest.
High temperatures are expected to be near normal through at least
Thursday, then possibly above normal by Friday as low level winds
veer to southwest. However, given the relatively dry airmass, mostly
clear skies and light winds each night, lows expected to be near to
slightly below normal, generally in the 40s well inland, to lower
50s closer to the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure will remain north of the area through
tonight as a coastal trough begins to develop. Scattered
stratocumulus around 3,500 ft is expected to move over the
terminals after midnight. Late Sunday morning we anticipate a
broken stratocu layer around 5,000 ft to overspread the
terminals and remain through Sunday evening/overnight. A
minority of model members indicate the potential for temporary
MVFR ceilings to affect any of the terminals later Sunday
afternoon into the evening, along with isolated rain showers. We
did not include mention of flight restrictions or precipitation
with the 00Z TAFs.
Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the daytime on Sunday. Periodic flight restrictions
possible Sunday night through roughly Monday morning, then
improving conditions back to VFR later Monday afternoon into mid
week.
&&
.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Quiet conditions will prevail across the
local waters. Wind speeds will mostly top out around 10 knots,
but could get into the 10-15 knot range at times. Seas will
average 1-3 feet.
Sunday through Thursday: The biggest concern this period will
be the strength and placement of a coastal low pressure system.
Most models show more of a trough of low pressure vs a closed
circulation, and that trough is centered beyond 40 nm offshore.
This type of solution will translate to an increase in north-
northeast winds later Sunday, then possibly backing to north-
northwest early Monday through Monday night. Current guidance
keeps winds below SCA. However, seas could reach 5 to 7 feet
well offshore Monday night through the first part of Wednesday
as the system pulls away to the northeast and stronger high
pressure builds from the west-northwest. There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty with this forecast, but if trends continue,
SCAs may be needed for at least offshore waters for seas by
later Monday into Wednesday. Seas currently expected to fall
back below SCA levels later Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tides are expected as we begin the work week due to
the upcoming full moon and perigee. We continue to monitor the
potential for coastal flooding with the morning high tides along
the entire southeast South Carolina and Georgia coasts. The
background astronomical tides will be the highest by the middle
of the week, when they reach minor flooding levels without any
contribution from wind. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed,
especially by mid week. However, there is still considerable
uncertainty with how high the tides will reach since levels will
greatly depend on the wind direction. Most models, including
the national blended solution, are largely showing more
northerly, even somewhat north- northwest/offshore winds,
through at least Thursday. These wind directions would be less
conducive to pushing tide levels much higher than the base
astronomical levels. We will continue to monitor the latest
model trends.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...Haines/RFM
Office: CAE
FXUS62 KCAE 012305
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
705 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue through Sunday afternoon with shower
chances returning Sunday night into Monday. Several days of dry
conditions to follow with a gradual warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Another chilly night but clouds increase near daybreak.
High pressure hangs on this evening as the upper low is now
nearing the northern Tennessee Valley, turning upper flow out of
the southwest and slowly increasing upper level moisture.
Tonight, the inverted surface trough off the coast will continue
to develop with low level flow turning a bit more easterly and
slightly increasing low level moisture. In general, increasing
moisture along with increasing cloud cover, should limit
radiational cooling some. This should bring overnight lows into
the upper 30s to low 40s across the FA. With that said, MOS
guidance has trended down a degree or two today, so if cloud
cover is slower to build in, overnight lows could trend a couple
degrees lower than currently forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- An approaching trough will bring widespread rain chances late
Sunday into Monday.
Upper trough will be digging into the Tennessee Valley Sunday with
southwest flow aloft leading to increasing moisture. This will lead
to increasing clouds across the forecast area. Progression of the
trough seems to be coming into better agreement among global models.
The trough overall remains positively tilted leading to a quicker
progression through the forecast area. Developing low pressure along
baroclinic zone at the South Carolina coast will lead to increasing
isentropic lift in the eastern portion of the area. As a result,
precip chances will increase late in the day Sunday and into Sunday
night. HREF PWAT mean around 1 to 1.1 inches so rain not expected to
be all that heavy but blended guidance does continue to increase
pops, especially in the Pee Dee. With HREF members now in range as
well, confidence is increasing in at least light rain Sunday night
into Monday morning. While most of the area will likely
experience light rain, HiRes guidance is indicating
strengthening frontogenesis near the northern and eastern border
of the forecast area which could lead to a band of some
enhanced amounts, potentially over an inch as indicated by the
HREF PMM. With the more progressive movement of the upper
trough, expect drier air moving in for Monday afternoon and
while some light rain showers will remain possible in the
eastern area, strongest frontogenesis is expected to push north
of the area. Highs both Sunday and Monday, generally in the mid
60s with lows in the mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Near to slightly above average and dry through the rest of
the week.
Broad high pressure settles over the Southeast Tuesday. Upper
ridging begins to strengthen over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Ensemble means have generally trended a bit stronger with this
ridge, with NAEFS mean indicating greater than 90th percentile
heights over the Deep South, although not quite extending into the
forecast area. This has led to blended guidance coming in a bit
warmer for temperatures next week to near average Tuesday and
slightly above average through the rest of the week. The most
notable point of slightly above average temperatures is frost will
be unlikely each night, even with relatively favorable radiational
cooling with high pressure the dominant feature.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Outside of some river valley fog at ags/dnl, VFR conditions
expected.
As low levels decouple winds are going calm at most locations,
and they will remain that way through sunrise on Sunday. Through
the day, light easterly winds will occur. Some high level
cloudiness moving in from the west very late tonight, but
majority of the overnight hours should see mostly clear skies.
Airmass is still dry, but should still see some patchy
ground/river steam fog at ags/dnl through the overnight hours,
with some brief ifr visibilities possible. After 12z, all sites
will be vfr through the daytime hours on Sunday. Clouds will be
on the increase during the day, but mainly in the mid and upper
levels.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions and rainfall will be Sunday night and early next
week as another front approaches.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Office: GSP
FXUS62 KGSP 020137
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
937 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low pressure system is expected to bring a chance of light
rain Sunday through Sunday night as it crosses the Southeast. Dry
conditions and a warming trend will prevail through Thursday.
A weak cold front may bring isolated rain showers to the mountains
late next week with warm and dry weather returning for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Saturday: Clear skies and calm winds this evening
have allowed for efficient radiational cooling across much of the
area. Temperatures have dropped sharply since sunset, with mid
40s common across the NC and SC Foothills and Piedmont, low 50s in
urban centers such as KCLT, lower 40s across the mountains above
roughly 3500 ft, and 30s along the highest ridges above 5000 ft. A
few Piedmont locations are already approaching their previously
forecast lows. While high-level cirrus is beginning to move in
from the west, these clouds remain thin and are not expected to
significantly inhibit additional cooling overnight.
However, ideal radiational cooling conditions are not expected to
persist through the night across the NC mountains, where
increasing mid and lower clouds and perhaps a few light showers
may arrive late.
To account for the stronger radiational cooling observed this
evening, the minimum temperature forecast was adjusted downward a
few degrees, weighted toward the 25th percentile in the Foothills
and the 10th percentile in some of the cooler Piedmont valleys. This
results in forecast lows generally 2 to 3 degrees below the NBM
deterministic guidance. Patchy frost was added to the eastern
portions of the forecast area, mainly across the NC-SC Piedmont,
where updated forecast lows fall in the 36 to 37 degree range.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track with
increasing high clouds toward daybreak ahead of the approaching
upper low.
Previous Forecast (144 PM EDT Saturday): Subtle height falls
will accompany a closed upper low diving south from the Mid-MS
Valley helping to induce weak moisture advection from the Gulf
ahead of this feature. An increase in upper-level clouds will
become more apparent later this afternoon and evening as the low
shifts into the TN Valley tonight into the Deep South by Sunday
afternoon as the surface high that was in control slips offshore
in response. This should be enough forcing to squeeze out some
precip over the Smokies overnight tonight, with freezing levels
will be between 4000-5000', so any wintry precip will remain in the
higher elevations, but no accumulations are expected. Otherwise,
just increasing mid/upper-level clouds across the rest of the
CWFA, leading to less than ideal radiational cooling conditions,
which will keep overnight lows 3-6 degrees below normal and should
preclude any widespread concerns of frost.
As the upper low becomes situated over the lower TN Valley and
Deep South by Sunday afternoon, surface cyclogenesis will be come
realized over the Gulf Stream and bring in better QPF response over
the eastern Carolinas. CAMs have been consistent on developing
showers along and east of I-77 and the far southern zones by the
end of the forecast period as a weak low-level frontogenesis pivots
west from the Coastal Plains. With that being said, expect most
of the area to be locked into better cloud cover, which will limit
overall insolation during the daytime period, while better shower
chances occur in the far eastern zones. As a result, afternoon
highs on Sunday will remain 3-6 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday: Consistency between deterministic guidance
has improved with respect to the track and timing of the potent
closed upper low expected to propagate across the Southeast Sunday
night through Monday. Expect the center of this low to be just
to our south and west at the beginning of the short-term period,
with the axis shifting quickly to our east by Monday afternoon.
Broad surface high pressure ahead of this upper low will effectively
shut down notable moisture flux from the Atlantic or the Gulf;
therefore, only isolated to scattered light showers are expected
across the forecast area Sunday night as the low pivots overhead.
However, simultaneous coastal cyclogenesis Sunday night will
allow for slightly better moisture flux into the easternmost
zones of our warning area, reflected in the higher-end chance PoPs
forecasted near and east of the I-77 corridor. A small axis of
needed 0.25-0.50" rainfall is possible in this zone underneath a
deformation axis over the central Carolinas before Monday afternoon.
With the exception of elevations near or above 6000 feet, where
light, insignificant snow showers are possible, all precip is
expected to fall as rain. Expect lows generally in the lower 40s
across the Piedmont, with upper 30s across the foothills and lower
to mid-30s across the mountains.
By Monday afternoon, high pressure over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley will quickly return our area to dry weather with
west-northwesterly, downsloping flow allowing highs to moderate
3-6 degrees in the mountain valleys and across the foothills
and western Piedmont. The center of this high pressure will be
over the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning, permitting
ample radiational cooling; however, with a mild source airmass,
lows are expected to be a few degrees higher than Monday morning
across the mountains. While lows across the Piedmont will be a
few degrees cooler due to the lack of cloud cover, they generally
will be too warm to warrant frost concerns. As the surface high
pressure axis slides to our east Tuesday afternoon, weak southerly
flow under sunny skies will result in high temperatures near or
slightly above normal, equivalent to the upper 60s to near 70
across the Piedmont and mountain valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0200 PM Saturday: A progressive and relatively flat
upper-level pattern will dominate the eastern ConUS until Wednesday,
when a transient shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and
Northeast. However, it will have little influence on our weather,
which will remain dry and seasonably warm area wide through at
least Thursday. Expect highs through Thursday to reach the upper
60s to near 70 each day across the Piedmont and mountain valleys,
with lower 70s prominent across the Lakelands and upper Savannah
River valley. Temperatures will generally bottom out in the
lower to mid-40s east of the mountains and in the mountain valleys
each morning. The coolest lows are expected Friday morning with
upper 30s creeping into the NC Piedmont and mountain valleys.
Any freezing lows should remain confined to the highest mountain
elevations.
The next rapidly propagating shortwave will approach the Ohio Valley
by Friday and there may be just enough moisture and upslope flow in
the continental airmass ahead of the attendant cold front to justify
slight chance PoPs Friday night across the mountains. Increasing
cloud cover and lower thicknesses look to suppress Friday highs by
a few degrees, but still generally near normal across the area.
Lacking any appreciable return flow, this system will remain too
moisture starved to bring any rainfall to the Piedmont as the cold
front moves across the area later Friday into Saturday. Due to
the continued progressive and low-amplitude upper-level pattern,
there does not appear to be a significant change to the airmass
behind the front heading into Saturday. Lows Saturday morning
are expected to be 3-5 degrees above normal, posing no concern.
Instead, expect temps to quickly rebound under sunny skies and
downsloping flow, setting up a beautiful Saturday with high 2-4
degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds were calm at all terminals at the
start of the 00Z TAFs, but may occasionally be light (under 5 kt)
and variable thru sunrise. A dry airmass in place will limit the
potential for fog development in the early morning. The latest LAMP
MOS and NBM supports not putting any visibility restrictions even
for the fog-prone site, KAVL, with a 90 and 85 percent probability
of visibility remaining VFR tonight, respectively. High clouds with
bases between 15-25 kft will overspread the area through from the
west this evening.
CIGs will remain VFR during the day Sunday, but gradually lower
to between 10 and 15 kft. An east to northeast wind between 4-8
kt is expected on Sunday. The exception will be at KAVL where the
flow shifts to south-southeasterly.
A weak coastal low is expected to develop just off the the Carolina
coast Sunday night. Precipitation is expected to overspread the
coastal plain and depending on how quickly the low organizes,
the back edge of the precipitation shield could reach as far west
as the NC-SC Piedmont after sunset. Confidence is low in seeing
any weather-related flight restrictions, especially, as you go
westward. Nonetheless, a Prob30 group with light rain and MVFR
conditions were introduced at the very end of the 30-hr TAF for
KCLT. The probability of MVFR CIGs at KCLT increase to 25 percent
before 06Z Monday and peaks to near 50 percent between 06Z-12Z
(beyond the TAF valid time).
Outlook: Restrictions possible to start the week. Dry and
VFR conditions should return through the middle part of the
week. Mountain valley fog/low stratus possible each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...CAC/JRK
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...JRK
