sc discuss
Office: CHS
FXUS62 KCHS 012322
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
622 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will pass through the region late today into
Tuesday. High pressure then returns for the middle of this week
before the next frontal system impacts the area Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Surface analysis shows a nice synoptic
setup with cold air damming entrenched across GA and the
Carolinas associated with the parent high centered across New
England. A sharpening coastal trough sits offshore with an
organizing surface low in the north-central Gulf along a nearly
stationary boundary that stretches across north FL. Aloft,
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave across the
central CONUS and a nice feed of deep moisture into the
Southeast within the west-southwest flow. Overnight, this
shortwave will press to the east while lifting into the OH
Valley while the upper level jet strengthens, especially the
streak across the eastern Great Lakes. A notable slug of
divergence in the right entrance region of the strengthening jet
will track through the Southeast coincident with precipitable
water values surging into the 1.5-1.7" range by sunrise Tuesday
(likely near a daily max according to the SPC Sounding Climo).
In response to the forcing aloft, the aforementioned surface low
will deepen a bit and track to the northeast and will likely be
situated near the AL/GA/FL state line around sunrise Tuesday.
As strengthening forcing and deepening moisture spread into the
area this evening, stratiform rain is expected to begin across
southeast GA by the late evening and begin getting into
southeast SC after midnight. The coverage of rain will then
steadily increase through the rest of the night such that the
entire forecast area should be covered by sunrise Tuesday.
Rainfall intensity should remain generally light through the
overnight, though there could be some embedded pockets of
moderate rain. Through the overnight hours, rainfall amounts
will mostly peak in the 0.25-0.50" range for most of the area,
though a streak over heavier amounts approaching or even
exceeding 0.75" will be possible across the far inland tier
including Jenkins, Candler, Screven, Bulloch, and Allendale
counties. It will be a chilly and somewhat unpleasant overnight
period with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s inland
and the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast, combined with
persistent northeast wind of 5-10 mph and increasing coverage of
rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Aloft, a trough extending across the Great Lakes to
the Deep South will advance east, likely reaching the Atlantic
Seaboard by late day/early evening. At the sfc, low pressure
developing and positioned near a front in the northern Gulf is
anticipated to track east-northeast across the region,
encountering a CAD prior to shifting off the coast late day.
Strong isentropic lift and deep moisture (PWATs near 1.7 inches)
running over the CAD in addition to forcing associated with a
strong h25 jet core, h5 vort energy and a passing front will
continue to favor numerous/widespread rain and shower activity
across Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina during
morning into afternoon hours, with weak instability also
suggesting a few rumbles of thunder being possible, although
primarily well south and near the Southeast Georgia coast where
sfc temps are warmest.
The bulk of guidance suggests greatest rainfall amounts occur
well inland, generally around an inch along a stretch from
Tattnall County, GA and north-northeast to Berkeley County.
Closer to the coast, additional rainfall amounts around 0.5 inch
are forecast during morning into early afternoon hours,
implying greatest forcing and perhaps low pressure track to
occur inland while the CAD holds in place. Regardless of low
track, these rains should be quite beneficial to the region
given ongoing drought conditions, while lower rainfall rates
also limit concern for flooding. The exception could be with the
early morning high tide cycle along the Southeast South
Carolina coast should rainfall occur during elevated tide levels
(see Coastal Flooding section below).
The local area will likely experience a wide range of temps
given the setup. For locations well inland, widespread clouds
and rain/showers could limit afternoon highs to the mid-upper
50s. Closer to the coast, sfc winds have a greater chance of
becoming southerly in advance of the front, allowing afternoon
highs to peak in the mid 60s along coastal South Carolina to
upper 60s/around 70 along coastal Georgia and perhaps south of
I-16 across Southeast Georgia. Dry and cooler high pressure
builds across the region during the night post fropa, favoring
lows in the mid 30s inland to low-mid 40s near the coast.
Wednesday and Thursday: High pressure centered across the Ohio
River Valley will spread across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
states mid- week, favoring dry and cooler conditions across the
local area Wednesday, prior to weak airmass modification on
Thursday. In general, high temps should range between the mid-
upper 50s with a few temps around 60 degrees across Southeast
Georgia Wednesday afternoon, followed by highs in the upper 50s
inland to low-mid 60s closer to the coast Thursday afternoon.
Lows could reach the freezing mark well inland Wednesday night
(lower 30s), but stay warmer along the coast (low-mid 40s).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, the local area should remain under a mostly zonal flow
between a broad trough extending across the northern United
States and a broad ridge across the Gulf and Atlantic. At the
sfc, another low pressure system develops across the northern
Gulf, although appears weaker and more progressive late week,
suggesting a lighter and slightly shorter rainfall event
compared to early week, but still sufficient to produce numerous
to widespread rain/showers Friday afternoon/evening and
possibly through Saturday morning, before the system and/or
front shifts offshore late day. Dry high pressure returns post
fropa Sunday, with highs remaining below normal, generally in
the upper 50s inland to lower 60s across coastal areas.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with solid MVFR ceilings in place at
KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Conditions will steadily deteriorate over
the next 6-12 hours as ceilings lower into the IFR range and
steady rainfall spreads across the terminals. We have timed the
arrival of steady light rain and IFR ceilings into KSAV starting
at 03z and at KCHS and KJZI starting at 06z. The time period of
the heaviest rainfall will likely occur starting around 12-14z
then coming to an end around 18-20z. During this time, rainfall
rates will increase enough to drop visibilities into the 2-4 SM
range, with ceilings likely around 400-600 ft. Also of note,
LLWS will be a concern and has been maintained in the TAF's
generally from around 12-19z. Rainfall is expected to come to an
end late in the period, approximately by around 20-22z. KCHS
and KJZI will likely remain IFR through the entire 00z TAF
period while KSAV could see improvement to MVFR by around
19-20z. There is a low end chance of thunder on Tuesday, mainly
from late morning through early afternoon, however confidence is
too low to include explicitly in the TAF's.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions return at all
terminals Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday with high
pressure dominating the weather pattern, before chances for
flight restrictions return at all terminals with the next
front/low pressure system bringing rain and/or showers to all
terminals Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: A wedge of high pressure should weaken tonight as an
area of low pressure moves over the region. This will allow
northeast winds initially to become southerly late tonight.
Gusts in the low 20 kt range this afternoon will briefly come
down later this evening, before beginning to ramp back up near
daybreak. Wave heights will also increase late tonight, with 6
ft seas developing over the SC nearshore and outer GA waters
during the pre-dawn hours. The wind and sea conditions will be
highlighted with Small Craft Advisories for these zones.
A low pressure system will approach local waters from the west-
southwest on Tuesday with a CAD slow to weaken and resulting in
a slightly pinched gradient. Southerly winds gusting up to
25-30 kt outside the Charleston Harbor and beyond Georgia
nearshore waters are possible. Seas should also build up to 6-8
ft during this timeframe, supporting the continuation of Small
Craft Advisories across nearshore SC waters and outer Georgia
waters late day into the evening on Tuesday. Winds will remain
mostly offshore and weaken heading into Wednesday as high
pressure spreads across the region. Expect winds/seas to remain
well below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through late week,
with only a slight uptick in winds and seas associated with the
arrival of the next low pressure system.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The first tide of concern this week will be the early morning
high tide Tuesday, occurring around 5 AM in the Charleston
Harbor. Latest indications are that tide levels should peak in
the 7.0-7.2 ft MLLW range, which is above the minor coastal
flood threshold. A Coastal Flood Advisory could be needed. From
Beaufort county south across the Georgia coast, no issues are
expected.
Astronomical tides will then continue to rise with the morning
high tide cycles through Friday and remain elevated through the
weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed for
morning high tide cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor
(Charleston and Coastal Colleton counties) through late week.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for AMZ350-374.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ352.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...DPB/ETM
Office: CAE
FXUS62 KCAE 011749
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon should be dry but cool with rainfall chances
quickly increasing this evening ahead of an area of low
pressure. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as
this storm moves through tonight into Tuesday morning. High
pressure then builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday before
another system takes aim at the region to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cool and drier through the daytime hours, then increase in
rain potential after sunset tonight.
- Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall possible tonight.
Well, the weather is currently cool and quiet. High clouds are
overspreading the region as a deep trough translates southeastward
out of the central Rockies. Temperatures are pretty chilly right now
in 40s right now, expected to rise a few more degrees until the
clouds thicken up this afternoon. Surface high pressure is centered
across the Mid-Atlantic, ridging southwestward across the central
Carolinas. Northeasterly flow is fairly strong, with winds 8-12 mph
persistent, which should help keep things cooler than they
otherwise would be. Look for highs this afternoon to generally
end up in the upper 40s for most.
As we go through the day, the aforementioned trough is forecast to
continue digging southeastward and then eastward with a strong,
coupled upper level jet streak overspreading the Appalachians
by tonight. Good synoptic scale forcing is forecast to begin
overspreading the area this evening with a strong 850 jet
forecast to develop to our southwest. Moisture transport is
expected to increase quickly in conjunction with this, helping
to provide plentiful moisture to the area. PWs are forecast to
rise into the 1.25"-1.5" range overnight, well into the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Strong warm advection should
help force widespread rain across the area by this point, with
rainfall likely becoming moderate to briefly heavy at times.
Overall, this setup is quite good for rainfall, much needed
considering our dry weather of late. Rain is expected to develop
from west to east after midnight tonight, with the heaviest
rain beginning after 2a. There is a corridor, generally along
I-20ish, where some heavier rainfall may setup tonight and into
tomorrow. This is where the currently wedge boundary likely will
be through the event, and is near or just south of where the
surface low is forecast to track. Rainfall totals of 0.75"-1.5"
are expected to be common, with 1.5"-2" of rainfall possible
along an axis stretching from Augusta to Sumter. Lows tonight
are forecast to be in the 40s across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Widespread rainfall is expected during the morning hours. The
rain may be heavy at times.
- The rain tapers off during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, ending from west to east in the afternoon.
Widespread rainfall will be ongoing at daybreak as low pressure
passes along the South Carolina coast. The rain may be heavy at
times during the morning hours. Despite the moderate to heavy
rainfall, the overall flash flood threat is low though some
minor or nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. Expect
precipitation to taper off during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, ending from west to east in the afternoon.
Skies should clear out towards evening, though some of the hi-
res guidance suggests that low clouds may linger in spots before
a cool, dry air mass filters into the FA. Temperatures should
be slightly warmer than today with forecast highs in the lower
to mid 50s. Temperatures should fall quickly at night,
especially in locations that fully clear out. Forecast lows
range from the mid-20s to the mid-30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Cool and dry Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure in
control of the weather.
- The next storm system impacts the region Friday and Saturday,
bringing another round of rainfall.
Cool and dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as
high pressure passes to the north. Moisture and warm air
advection will increase on Thursday as the anticyclone shifts
offshore but much of the FA should remain dry until the next
storm system approaches Thursday night. There remains a high
amount of uncertainty regarding the large scale evolution of the
next storm system but confidence is increasing in a period of
rain Friday and/or Saturday. There may be some improvement in
the weather to close out the weekend but this will depend on how
quickly this storm system can clear the region. Temperatures
are expected to remain below normal through the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for the next several hours, with IFR and
LIFR conditions forecast tonight.
High clouds have continued to stream across the area today,
gradually thickening as they have done so. Winds are fairly
breezy as the surface high remains entrenched across the Mid-
Atlantic ahead of broad and gradual surface cyclogenesis to our
southwest. Moisture will continue to increase through the
evening hours as a surface low gets going within favorable upper
level forcing and low clouds are expected to increase rapidly
after about 03z. Rainfall is likely to begin during this period,
increasing in coverage and intensity in the 06z-09z timeframe
tonight. IFR and LIFR ceilings are likely during this timeframe,
with predominant IFR visibility expected as well. Rainfall is
expected to persist for most of the period beyond 06z tonight,
potentially becoming just VCSH at the augusta sites by the end
of this period on Tuesday. But regardless, this setup is a very
good one for all sites to see IFR or LIFR conditions for an
extended period of time tonight through midday Tuesday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next weather system will keep
the potential for restrictions in rain into Tuesday morning.
Additional restrictions possible late in the week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Office: GSP
FXUS62 KGSP 011817
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
117 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast from the Gulf tonight and Tuesday with
widespread precipitation. Behind the system, high pressure will
result in chilly and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
Unseasonably cold and unsettled weather is expected Friday as
another system brings more precipitation to the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1258 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
1) Fair and cool today as high pressure passes by.
2) Precip develops from the southwest this evening, mostly rain,
but with pockets of freezing rain over the northern mountains and
along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment in North Carolina.
3) A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include parts
of Buncombe/Henderson/Polk/Rutherford counties, from 7 PM Monday
through 10 AM Tuesday.
Fair weather prevails this afternoon and into the early evening
as sfc high pressure migrates from the Great Lakes to New
England. Meanwhile, the short wave seen in the water vapor imagery
coming out across the srn Plains will help increase moisture return
from the southwest. Precip probs have been pushed back further
based on the 12Z HREF and the expectation that developing precip
will have a difficult time working northeastward into the dry air
across our region.
But, develop it will, as the 850mb flow improves quickly this
evening, increasing the moisture flux and contributing strong
isentropic lift that spreads northeast between 00Z and 06Z to
engulf the entire fcst area. Thus, precip probs will be ramped
up all the way to categorical SW to NE in that time frame. The
slightly later start might allow for a bit more cooling down
farther to the S/SW along the Escarpment, such that when the precip
arrives the temps will have an easier time wet-bulbing down to
around freezing. Meanwhile, strong warm advection will develop a
formidable warm nose overhead. The upshot is that after some mixed
precip potential at onset mainly over the mtns, we end up with an
R/ZR situation. The majority of the region will have nothing but a
cold rain, but the usual areas over the nrn mountains and near the
Blue Ridge Escarpment from Blowing Rock down to Saluda, including
the eastern-most parts of Buncombe and Henderson counties should
see a period of freezing rain starting late this evening. The warm
nose makes the situation elevation-dependent, so places that are
above about 4000 feet or so should be mostly rain after some mix
at onset. There is enough icing potential to expand the Advisory
down south to include the mountain parts of Polk and Rutherford
and also Henderson and Buncombe. NOTE that the ice potential
will be east of a line from roughly Swannanoa to Fairview and
Edneyville, with little to no accumulation expected in Asheville
and Hendersonville and west of the I-26 corridor. Of course,
things could go wrong. The most likely failure mode would be that
colder air is more extensive which could require expansion across
the NC Foothill zones, or that the cold air holds on longer and
allows for some icing to approach or exceed Warning criteria. The
warm advection should be strong, so precip should be all rain by
around daybreak. Temps will naturally be at or below normal.
The precip will move off to the east steadily and should be over
by early afternoon. Assuming we get some partial clearing and
dry air in the afternoon once the sfc wave moves to the east,
temps could rebound to around normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1237 PM EST Monday:
Key Message 1: Northwest flow in the midst of ending Tuesday evening
following the departing system from the Near-Term period. Most
locations across the area below freezing for overnight lows Tuesday.
Ongoing northwest flow precip should fully diminish by Tuesday
evening along the immediate Tennessee border as drier air disrupts
the shallow layer of moisture along the favorable upslope zones.
Weak surface high will move in from the northwest as CAA works into
the CWFA. Gusty winds gradually subside across the mountains
overnight Tuesday as the center of the surface high shifts into the
OH/TN Valleys. Temperatures will be in the upper teens and 20s
across the mountains with mid to upper 30s elsewhere for overnight
lows with decent radiational cooling conditions outside of boundary
layers struggling to fully decouple.
Key Message 2: Dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures
rebounding from Wednesday to Thursday.
Weak surface high moves across the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday
as low-amplitude ridging settles over the region in response to a
digging upper trough over the western CONUS. A cold front is shown
encroaching the CWFA from the northwest on Thursday as the front
sags through the area without much fanfare as better forcing for
ascent remains north and available moisture stays south over a
developing baroclinic zone over the Gulf Coast region. In this case,
not much change to the overall airmass. Temperatures will be cool
Wednesday with afternoon highs in the 40s in the mountains and upper
40s to lowers 50s across the Piedmont. Overnight lows should run
below freezing with 20s and lower 30s expected with good radiational
cooling conditions in place. Weak downslope component should help
bump temperatures a few degrees higher compared to Wednesday for
afternoon highs on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Monday:
Key message 1: Next system moves into the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia late Thursday into Friday, with wintry
precipitation possible, mainly across the mountains as a result
of another cold-air damming event. Confidence remains low overall
for occurrence of precipitation and winter weather.
Stronger surface high (~1030mb) moves in behind the short-term
cold front as it shifts from the Midwest through the OH Valley
and offshore the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night through Friday. The
aforementioned cold front will stall south of the CWFA, in the
vicinity of the I-20 corridor. Activated baroclinic zone over the
southeastern CONUS will induce Miller-A surface cyclogenesis along
the boundary as it becomes reactivated and develop a low pressure
system as the next storm system moves across the eastern Gulf
Coast Friday and over the Carolina Coast Friday night. Latest
model guidance have trended drier with a shorter period of good
QPF response. The complicating factor will be the strength of the
in-situ CAD as it develops Friday as the onset of precipitation
Friday morning could start out with a mix bag of wintry precip
in the North Carolina mountains/foothills, as well as the I-40
corridor before transitioning to all liquid for most locations. The
probability of any accumulating snow or ice remains confined to
the northern Blue Ridge mountains at this time, especially now
with the latest trends keeping the system slightly further south,
which in turn, limits the overall available moisture. However,
this would limit the presence of a strong warm nose, which could
lead to more of snow/sleet across the high elevations instead
of a predominately freezing rain event. Still a lot of factors
to consider, but the potential for another nuisance winter system
across the mountains is definitely in the playing cards. Elsewhere,
outside of the mountains, model solutions, including ensembles
indicate mostly a cold rain. Either way, temperatures will be cold
on Friday with most locations in the 30s and 40s across the CWFA,
with near freezing temperatures in the mountains/foothills, where
the chance for wintry precip is best.
Key message 2: Calmer weather in store for the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Slight rebound in temperatures with
trends keeping values near normal.
One consensus that model guidance are picking up on is the overall
end time of the weekend system as precip could linger into Saturday
before shifting east of the CWFA by Saturday night as a southern
stream shortwave aids in a faster storm departure. Precip chances
have reflected this in the latest forecast update as trends have
lowered to slight chance (15-24%) and chance (25-54%) PoPs across
the area and fully drying out by early Sunday. If the latest
model guidance continue with a drier trend, then the main precip
timing will be Friday and Friday night with less coverage for
Saturday. Weak cyclonic flow aloft remains in place through the
weekend as another shortwave is shown swinging within the mean flow
and approaching the area by the end of the weekend. Guidance differ
on the overall QPF response, but looks light overall, even with the
more aggressive solutions. Slight chance PoPs are introduced across
the mountains Sunday night, but remains dry elsewhere. Temperatures
continue to run within a few degrees of normal over the weekend
into the early next week, but is subject to change depending on
how long CAD lingers, especially for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will persist past sunset
and probably thru the late evening, but clouds will thicken after
sunset and ceilings will start to drop as moisture spreads quickly
northeastward. Wind should be NE. The development of light precip
after about 02Z from SW to NE will bring the ceiling steadily
down thru MVFR and into the IFR to LIFR range at all terminals
in the late night/early morning hours. By the start of operations
in the morning, it should be raining at all terminals with an IFR
restriction most likely. Due to the strong SW flow, there could be
some LLWS across KAVL at that time. Variability between LIFR and
MVFR can be expected. Precip type looks to be just a cold rain at
all terminals, but will have to monitor KAVL and KHKY for possible
freezing rain before daybreak. Temps warm by 13Z and that should
end that threat. The system moves thru fairly quickly. Ceilings
may crash to LIFR around daybreak as the precip starts to taper
off. Quick improvement is expected right around the end of the
period, with wind coming around to SW to W.
Outlook: VFR conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another
system may bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the
region on Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
