Office: CHS
FXUS62 KCHS 250407
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1207 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will drop into the region tonight into Thursday.
High pressure builds back into the region late week through the
early part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The risk for isolated showers will persist mainly from Colleton
County north as a weak surface trough drops south. Lows from the
upper 50s/near 60 inland to the mid 60s at the beaches look
good. Only minor changes will be made for the midnight update.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak front/trough will push offshore as a wedge of high
pressure builds south Thursday. Aloft, a large omega block will
begin to set up with amplifying troughs over the Western
Atlantic and Western U.S. A ridge axis over the Central U.S will
gradually shift toward the Eastern Seaboard, and settle in
place through at least the first half of the weekend. Overall,
quiet weather is expected with little to no forcing; however
models generate a few light showers at times with onshore flow.
Slight chance PoPs are in place for Friday afternoon across
inland southeast Georgia where there has been some persistence,
but otherwise the chance for measurable rainfall was low enough
to preclude mention in the forecast.
High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal,
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Lows both
nights range from the mid/upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along
the immediate coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The pattern remains largely unchanged through the early week
with the omega block and deep high pressure in place. This
favors increasing temperatures and virtually zero rain chances.
The upper ridge axis will finally begin to shift offshore
Tuesday as a weakening trough and accompanying weak cold front
moves into the eastern U.S. It should be another dry day across
much of the area, however a few showers could impact inland
areas during the latter half of the day. Temperatures will start
the period in the upper 70s/low 80s and will rise to the upper
80s/near 90F by the middle of the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
26/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 27/06z Friday. Band of clouds with
cigs 6000-8000 ft will cross the terminals over the next few
hours. Risk for isolated showers will linger near KCHS and KJZI
through about 09z then end. VCSH was maintained for these two
terminals. No impacts are expected. Shallow cumulus will develop
this afternoon, but will gradually mix out as the sea breeze
moves inland.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Overnight: Southwest winds will diminish to near 10 kt
overnight as a surface trough slips south into the local marine
areas. A few showers could impact mainly the South Santee-Edisto
Beach nearshore leg and Charleston Harbor during the overnight
hours, although the overall precip potential is very low. Seas
will average 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters out to 20 NM and the
3-4 ft over the Georgia offshore leg out 20-60 NM.
Thursday through Monday: Winds will shift ENE Thursday and then
persist through late week as high pressure builds from the
north. Brief surge will bring winds to the 15-20 kt range Friday
afternoon/evening. Seas in turn will build to 2-4 ft across the
nearshore waters out to 20 nm and 5-6 feet across the outer
Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed for that
particular marine zone for a brief period overnight Friday.
Winds veer more southerly early next week with no additional
marine concerns.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is
tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Office: CAE
FXUS62 KCAE 250001
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
801 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move into the area this evening with isolated
showers possible. Fair Thursday and Friday, except for a slight
chance of a shower over western areas Friday afternoon. Fair
Saturday through Monday with a warming trend. A cold front is
expected to bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cold front remains to the northwest of the area and will
continue to move through overnight. Showers currently moving
across the northern portion of the forecast area associated with
a surface trough, although moisture remains fairly limited with
PWATs around an inch. HiRes guidance continues to support
showers associated with this surface trough developing across
the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area,
shifting east and diminishing around or shortly after midnight
as some drier air moves in aloft. The front will still be near
the area by Thursday morning so cold advection will be limited.
As a result, low temperatures will only fall to the low to mid
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night: Upper trough continues to slowly
slide away from the region as upper ridging begins to build
overnight. At the surface, high pressure begins to wedge in from
the north, pushing a frontal boundary to the south and west.
Latest guidance continues to indicate that this boundary remains
too far away from the area to spark any shower activity,
keeping the area dry. Afternoon highs are forecast to be similar
to slightly lower than today as northwest flow aloft will aid
in some downsloping. Overnight temps remain on the mild side as
well.
Friday and Friday night: Upper ridging is expected to continue
building over the region on Friday. However, a weak shortwave
embedded within the ridge is forecast to move through the area.
Additionally, weak surface convergence is possible as the
frontal boundary wavers through the day. More models are picking
up on the chance for rainfall during the afternoon due to these
features. With the weak shortwave and surface convergence, only
expecting isolated showers to develop and have expanded a
slight chance (~20%) of showers from the CSRA to the central
Midlands to account for this trend. Temperatures are forecast to
be somewhat cooler on Friday as cloud cover should be over the
area for much of the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Only minor changes have been noted in the guidance for the long
term period. Surface high pressure remains in control over the
area into the early part of next week. However, some models are
picking up on a disturbance moving around the high pressure and
bringing some precipitation into the forecast area for Sunday.
My confidence is low (~10%) that we'll see any rain from this,
but will continue to monitor trends in the next few days.
Otherwise, a warming trend is anticipated into the early week
ahead. A system approaches the area midweek, bringing us the
next chance for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions likely.
A weak cold front will move through the area this evening.
Considerable strato-cumulus and mid level clouds ahead of the
front. Showers should be limited ahead of the front due to dry
air and weak lift. In most model guidance, the bulk of showers
remain north and east of the terminals, so not expected any
restrictions. Expect west winds diminishing to less than 10 kts
becoming north behind the front. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots
and a few high based cumulus through Thursday afternoon as high
pressure builds in from the northwest.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Office: GSP
FXUS62 KGSP 250226
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front should stall to our south tonight and Thursday as
high pressure moves past to our north. The front will move back
northward on Friday and wash out across our area, but giving us a
cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a
warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high
pressure takes over.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1025 PM EDT Wednesday: Showers have moved southeast of the
area but the movement of the front has been a little slower. Temps
and dew points remain elevated where the front hasn't passed, but
those should fall once it does. Winds have already diminished and
will remain light for all but some ridge tops. Still expect some
mountain valley fog before daybreak. Low temperatures will be
similar to this morning with low 40s to low 50s. Slightly cooler low-
level temperatures advect in by Thursday, but mostly sunny skies and
at least some degree of downsloping flow should allow for a nice day
with highs in the low to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday: Mid level ridging will build across the
region through the short range period, as surface high pressure
centered over the Northeast will extend south to the east of the
Appalachians. Low pressure will lift northward across the Plains.
Weak warm advection from the Plains system will combine with
easterly low level flow associated with the surface high to create
plenty of clouds Thursday night through Friday night. A few showers
are possible through these periods, but amounts will be very light.
Plenty of clouds will linger into Saturday, but there should be more
breaks in the clouds and less shower activity.
Due to the clouds and easterly flow, highs will be below climo on
Friday, then climbing back to near climo on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday: The mid level ridging will remain in place
for Sunday and Monday leading to increasing sunshine and
temperatures warming above climo. A trof in the mid level flow will
break down the ridge by Tuesday and bring the chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Overall, a quiet period is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions at all terminals through the
TAF period. Showers along a cold front have moved south of KCLT and
east of KGSP and are not expected to cross any TAF sites. Winds have
shifted behind the front for all but KAND where that should occur
around 02Z. Expect N to NE wind, with lighter speeds overnight. VFR
stratocu will scatter and dissipate as well. Expect mountain valley
fog, but not at KAVL. N to NE winds pick back up with mixing
Thursday morning, then shift to the S to SE as the center of high
pressure moves off shore. High clouds will increase late in the
afternoon.
Outlook: Rain and associated restrictions develop Friday as a warm
front lifts north across the area. Clouds linger Saturday, along
with the potential for isolated mountain convection which lingers
into Monday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...RWH
