sc discuss
Office: CHS
FXUS62 KCHS 051125
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
625 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will maintain unsettled weather through early
next week, then cold high pressure will build in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite water vapor showed a thick band of deep moisture
extending from the forecast area southwest to a closed low off
the coast of Baja. The stream of moisture should continue
through the day, PWs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8 inches by this
afternoon. The H5 heights will remain oriented from SW to NE
across the region, with a series of vort maxes tracking across
the CWA through the near term period. At the sfc, a 1025 mb high
centered over the coast of New England will likely surge SW
over the forecast area today, reinforced by persistent rainfall
falling across the Southeast U.S. High resolution guidance
indicates that the wedge front will slip off the SC/GA coast by
daybreak this morning. A frontal wave may form over the front
this morning, tracking NE along the wedge front and slowly
deepen off the coast of SC. As the low develops and departs, a
thick band of 925-850mb frontogenesis should form across SE
GA/SC late this morning, pushing east across the CWA through
this afternoon. Rainfall totals during the daylight hours are
forecast to range between .5-.75 inches. Given steady north
winds, thick clouds, and rounds of moderate rainfall,
temperatures should remain generally steady in the low to mid
50s.
Tonight, the associated cold front will push east off the coast
during the overnight hours. West-southwest flow aloft will maintain
deep moisture across the region. Slow height falls and rounds of
upper divergence should support a broad area of light rainfall
tonight. Overnight rainfall may remain a 0.25" or less across the
forecast area. Low temperatures are forecast to range in the 40s,
with the coolest readings in the low 40s surrounding Lake Moultrie.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Southeast will remain on the eastern periphery of a broad
longwave upper trough Saturday through Monday. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain near the SC/GA
coast. A series of shortwaves embedded in the mean flow will
lift northeast through the area during the period, bringing
periods of light to moderate rain. At this point it seems that
the best chances for rain will be during the daytime periods.
Most areas should see widespread light to moderate rain
Saturday, tapering off Saturday evening. Then another batch of
rain moves in from the southwest late Sunday morning,
continuing through the afternoon. A final round of showers will
move through on Monday as the main upper shortwave lifts
northeast. High pressure well north of the area will maintain
weak cold advection. This, in concert with overcast skies
through the period, will keep high temperatures generally in the
50s and lows in the 40s. The rainfall will not be particularly
heavy (3-day totals generally less than 0.75"), which should
minimize flooding concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cool, dry high pressure will build in from the west Monday
night. Overnight lows will dip below freezing in many areas away
from the coast Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs
should push back into the 60s for most areas by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z TAFs: The leading edge of cold air damming will spread
across the terminals around daybreak. North winds should
generally remain, speeds between 5 to 10 kts through the TAF
period. Deep forcing and moisture should yield widespread
moderate rainfall across the region through much of the day.
Forecast soundings indicate that cloud basses will gradually
lowers through the day, reaching IFR to LIFR by late this
morning. Lingering CAD tonight may yield some stratus build
down, however, ongoing rainfall may keep the BL mixed enough to
limit and fog formation. Each TAF will highlight the potential
for ceilings falling below 500 ft.
Extended Aviation Outlook: A relatively prolonged period of
ceiling restrictions expected Saturday through Monday.
Prevailing MVFR with periods of IFR are expected. Periods of
rain could occasionally reduce visibilities as well. Improving
conditions later Monday or Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Today and tonight: An area of low pressure is expected to develop
over the marine zones this morning, tracking off to the northeast
this afternoon. Light winds will vary directions this morning as the
low develops. As the low departs, winds should shift from the NNW
with speeds increasing to around 10 kts. A band of moderate showers
with isolated embedded thunderstorms should push across the waters
late this afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates within the rain band
may limit visibility to 2 SM or less at times. Wave heights are
forecast to range between 2-4 ft today, decreasing to 2-3 ft
tonight.
A brief period of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible for the Charleston nearshore and GA offshore waters
Monday afternoon into Monday night. Another round of marginal
advisory conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been posted for Charleston and coastal
Colleton counties until 9 AM this morning. Observation trends and
recent guidance indicates that tide levels should peak between
7.2-7.4 ft MLLW. High tide should occur around 7:43 AM.
Further south, from Beaufort County through the southeast
Georgia coast, high tide should peak below flood stage around
9.3 ft MLLW.
Astronomical tides will remain elevated through the weekend.
Coastal Flood Advisories could be needed for morning high tide
cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor (Charleston and Coastal
Colleton counties) through Sunday morning.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ049-
050.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JRL/NED
MARINE...JRL/NED
Office: CAE
FXUS62 KCAE 051126
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
626 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain remain possible today, with highest chances in
the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA. Unsettled weather then
continues into the weekend and potentially into early next week.
Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week
period while temperatures remain on the cooler side.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances continue to decrease for the rest of the day,
with highest potential for rain in the eastern Midlands and
lower CSRA.
- Cooler temperatures than yesterday.
Today and Tonight: Scattered shower activity continues to move
through the forecast area as of this writing, but there is a
continued downward trend in the overall coverage. In addition,
the chances for showers continue to decrease for the rest of the
day due to a couple of changes in the forecast. The main
shortwave that brought rain this morning has generally moved
through the area, with subsidence moving in behind this
activity. Latest SPC analysis shows the best isentropic lift is
located near the coast, so there is a lack of support over our
forecast area. Additional pulses of energy are forecast to move
through the area today, which could bring additional shower
activity. Hi- res guidance suggests an uptick in activity mid to
late morning, but given the location of the placement of rain
at the initialization being too far north of reality, I am not
confident this activity will move through the Midlands. The
better chances for this activity looks to be the eastern
Midlands/lower CSRA to the Low Country. That said, can't rule
out some shower activity as the day progresses. As a result of
the latest trends, did lower PoPs by 20-40% or more from I-20
and areas north and west and lowered PoPs east of I-20, but not
as much.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Unsettled weather continues this weekend
- Rainfall totals trending lower
- Continued below normal temperatures
Mid level southwesterly flow will persist through the period with a
series of shortwaves moving through and keeping the weather
unsettled. Guidance is showing some drier air moving into the
forecast area from the northwest with a strong gradient in PWATs
across the area on Saturday, which will focus the rainfall axis a
bit further south than previous forecasts. PWATs range from around
normal in the northwestern Midlands to around 150 percent of normal
across the southeast Midlands into the Coastal Plain. Overall
forcing remains weak Saturday but continued isentropic lift and a
surface boundary should provide continued chances of rain, focused
south of the I-20 corridor.
Widespread clouds and some precipitation will again keep
temperatures below normal with highs expected around 50 to the lower
50s. The approach of another shortwave trough on Sunday with some
southern stream energy is expected to result in coastal low
development Sunday afternoon and evening. This will keep the chance
of rain in the forecast although again focused across the southern
part of the forecast area. Temperatures expected to be similar to
Saturday but slightly warmer across the eastern Midlands with highs
in the lower to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Upper trough moves through Monday with lingering rain chances
- Drier and cooler air mass settles over the region through midweek
An upper trough will move over the region on Monday keeping low
chances of rain in the forecast before drier air moves into the
region in the wake of a cold front crossing the area. Cold high
pressure settles over the forecast area Monday night with strong
radiational cooling conditions expected to result in lows in the mid
to upper 20s. A return to a more dry and cool pattern returns mid
week with ensemble mean PWATs around 50 percent of normal Tue/Wed
with 500mb flow generally zonal across the region with upper trough
across the Great Lakes and west coast ridging. EC EFI continues to
highlight anomalously low temperatures and expect the below normal
temperatures to persist.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to start the TAF period, but gradually
worsening conditions anticipated.
VFR ceilings and visibilities are being reported at all 5 TAF
terminals as of this writing, but low ceilings are being
reported upstream. Expect these ceilings to work their way into
the forecast area through the TAF period, gradually lowering
over the next several hours, with LIFR conditions remaining
possible after about 00z. The chances for rain have decreased
since the last TAF forecast. Therefore, have dropped the
predominant -RA groups and added PROB30 groups for the CAE,
CUB, AGS, and DNL. Did include a TEMPO from for rain at OGB as
the chances for rain are higher there. Whatever shower activity
develops is anticipated to be done by mid afternoon. Light east
to northeast winds 5 kts or less expected this morning, before
switching to north or northwest around 19z or so. Winds become
light and variable again overnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely to continue
into Saturday as low ceilings continue and another round of rain
remains possible, but chances for rain have decreased. Rain
chances diminish Sunday and into the early week, but ceiling
restrictions may remain in place at least part of Sunday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Office: GSP
FXUS62 KGSP 051141
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
641 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will move off to the east by the middle part of the
day. After that, precipitation chances and below-normal temperatures
linger through the first part of next week. Temperatures trend
back toward normal by the middle of next week. Another cold front
may bring precipitation back to the area late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:15 AM EST Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Wintry precip expected across portions of the NC mountains and
possibly into portions of the NC Foothills this morning. A mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible in the mountains, with
freezing rain possible in the Foothills.
2) A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning for
portions of the NC mountains (no changes from previous fcst).
3) Precip will change over to rain and should taper off by late
this morning, however cold and cloudy conditions will continue
thru the day.
The center of a 1030 mb sfc high will track into Upstate NY and
weaken as it reaches the New England coast later today. This high
will produce a hybrid cold air damming wedge into the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, cyclogenesis will occur along the central Gulf Coast and
increase isentropic lift along a stalled frontal boundary draped
over the Southeast. The low will quickly track east along a baro-
clinic zone to the Carolina Coast overnight and into the morning.
Forcing still doesn't look very strong, so QPF is expected to be
light, but coverage still looks broad across our CWA. Overall, low-
level thicknesses have been trending a bit warmer across most of our
northern zones, so it remains to be seen if we end up getting much
in the way of snow over those zones. Regardless, a warm nose will
develop from the SW by daybreak and should change precip over to
mostly rain and/or freezing rain. No significant changes were seen
in the latest guidance wrt sfc temps or QPF, so the current Winter
Wx Advisory still looks good. Low temps overnight will lock into
the upper 20s to lower 30s in the high elevations and along the
eastern NC Escarpment, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
By this afternoon, the upper shortwave will exit to our east and
take the better isentropic lift with it. Sfc low pressure will begin
to deepen near the Outer Banks, but a residual CAD wedge will likely
linger thru the rest of the day. Precip chances taper off from NW to
SE later this morning, but low clouds and fog will persist, keeping
temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of our fcst area this aftn.
All but the highest peaks/ridges of the northern NC mtns are expected
to get above freezing later today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1247 AM Friday:
Key Messages:
1) Some light rain possible again Saturday, mainly south of I-85.
2) Temps remain below normal.
3) Another chance of light precip Sunday night and Monday morning,
with some wintry types possible, mainly over the mountains.
The latest model guidance continues a trend away from precip on
Saturday as more of the region will be on the wrong side on a jet
axis streaming overhead. Areas to the south of I-85 might still
have enough favorable jet dynamics from a broad right entrance
region to allow for some light precip to develop, but it's really
only the Canadian that has the northern edge of the light precip
far enough north to affect the southern parts of the forecast
area. The rest of guidance, including most of the GEFS members,
have the northern edge to the south. With that in mind, I expect
the model blend to continue to trend toward a drier day, but still
probably cloudy with lots of high jet streak cloudiness streaming
overhead. Temps should stay below normal for the weekend.
Sunday poses another problem. The GFS indicates another jet streak
moving out of the very broad upper trof and streaming overhead again
Sunday, with additional upper divergence. Another ill-defined short
wave and sfc reflection will also move along a stalled boundary
well to our south. There's actually a bit more support from the
synoptic scale models and especially from the GEFS to introduce
another chance of light precip across the I-85 corridor and south
during the day, but the NBM hasn't caught up to that idea yet. The
guidance suggests a trend toward more clouds and increasing precip
chances over the southeastern half, but fortunately that would be
all rain as thicknesses and profiles don't support anything else.
Which brings us to Sunday night and Monday. One final (and stronger)
short wave comes around the bottom of the upper trof to our west
during that time and should be the agent to swing the trof axis
across the region on Monday. This wave looks to track farther
north and is more dynamic than the ones over the weekend. There
are timing differences that come into play between the arrival of
the forcing and moisture associated with the wave and a surge of
cold air from the north that would influence the precip-types. As it
stands right now, the wave gets here before the cold air with enough
moisture to be wrung out into some light precip developing W-to-E,
but wintry types are mainly limited to the high elevations and
maybe the I-40 corridor east of the mtns. But, some light precip,
in the form of snow, would be within the realm of possibilities
if the short wave is delayed and the cold air arrives first. A
few GEFS members show that scenario. Either way, in the forecast,
the precip types were limited to rain/snow based on consideration
of thermal profiles in the NAM and GFS. The QPF looks light,
so even places that got some light snow, it would be sub-advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1253 AM Friday: A very broadly cyclonic upper flow on Tuesday
looks to oscillate with brief amplification as nrn stream waves
periodically pass by to our north. Confidence in the timing of these
waves is weak. We should at least start out with a period of fair
weather Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures attempting a warming
trend back toward normal for mid-week. The first clipper-like nrn
stream wave may pass by Wednesday night and push a boundary across
the region, resulting in some low-end precip chances, but outside
the mtns even a slight chance looks like a stretch. In reality,
probably only the TN border zones stand much of a chance for an
elevation-dependent rain/snow of low amount. Another wave may
dig the upper trof again Thursday night/Friday, perhaps, but
this timing is even more uncertain. For that reason, we carry
only unmentionable precip probs in spite of what the new GFS
shows. Either way, temps remain on the cool side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect restrictions to persist thru most
of the 12z taf period. A broad area of sct light to moderate pre-
cipitation continues to move over our eastern and southern zones
as we approach sunrise this morning. The precip should move east
of our area over the next few hrs, but I kept a PROB30 for RA at
most terminals thru 18z. At KAVL, the PROB30 only goes thru 15z.
Deeper moisture is expected to linger over the area today/tonight
with cigs remaining IFR to LIFR thru most of the taf period. Visby
is more likely to remain in the MVFR range today and then go IFR
to possibly LIFR later tonight with light to calm winds. Otherwise,
winds will be light thru the period and generally out of the NE out-
side of the mtns. Expect winds to go light and VRB to calm at most
sites later tonight/early Saturday. At KAVL, winds will remain light
and favor a S/SE direction today, going calm later this evening.
Outlook: A brief break in restrictions is expected Saturday aftn
thru early Sunday. Another storm system may bring more precip and
associated restrictions Sunday into Monday. Drying high pressure
is expected to spread back over the area by early Tuesday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NCZ048-052-053-059-063-064.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT
