sc discuss
Office: CHS
FXUS62 KCHS 301107
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
707 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build across the region today
and will linger through this weekend. A low pressure system
could impact the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
By daybreak a cold front will have cleared the forecast area,
with high pressure building into the region from the west behind
the departing front. Aloft, a mid-level cyclone will progress
northeastward towards New England, while zonal flow develops
over the southeastern states.
In the wake of the cold front, today will feature clearing
skies and breezy NW winds. The clearing skies and breezy winds
will cause temperatures this morning drop into the low 40s far
inland and around 50 along the coastline around daybreak.
Despite mostly sunny skies, temperatures will be able to rebound
into the low to mid 60s, still several degrees below normal due
to the strong cold air advection. Winds this evening will
increase over Lake Moultrie, with the 00Z 10/30 HREF showing an
80% probability of wind gusts greater than 25 mph. A Lake Wind
Advisory has been issued from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM
Friday.
Temperatures tonight are forecast to dip into the low 40s inland
and around 50 along the coastline as cold air advection
continues to dominate over the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday and Saturday: Dry and cool high pressure will build across
the forecast area. The center of the high should become positioned
over the Carolinas by Saturday morning. High temperatures on
Saturday are forecast to range in the 60s. Friday night, conditions
will feature clear sky, deep dry air, with light to calm winds.
Given prime radiational cooling conditions through the overnight
hours Friday night, low temperatures are forecast to cool into the
mid to upper 30s inland to the low 40s along the coast. Conditions
may favor at least patchy frost across portions of inland GA and SC.
It is possible that a Frost Advisory may be needed for Friday night
into Saturday morning.
Sunday: High pressure will lift to the north as low pressure
organizes over the northern Gulf. H85 temperatures should gradually
warm east of the developing low. The combination of partly sunny
conditions with weak WAA should allow high temperatures to range
from the upper 60s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 70s across SE
GA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS and ECMWF indicates that a deep H5 555DM low will track across
the Deep South early next week. GFS1deg shows a strong area of Q-
vector convergence will pass over the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday. At the sfc, low pressure should continue to deepen across
the Deep South and Southeast U.S., possibly lifting a warm front
across the CWA on Monday. GFS and ECMWF indicates widespread
rainfall along and south of the warm front, especially Monday
afternoon. However, the NBM indicates much lower coverage,
supporting only SCHC PoPs with light QPF. Deep low pressure may
remain over the region through Tuesday night, then pushing over the
Atlantic waters on Wednesday. In the wake of the low pressure, high
pressure is expected to build over the region on Thursday.
Temperatures through the long term period should remain below
normal, especially during the passage of the deep closed low.
Temperatures may recover into the low 70s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z TAFs: Prevailing VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Gusty NW winds are
expected at all terminals through today, gusting to around 20
knots. Gusts will wane with nightfall tonight, along with
clearing skies.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through Sunday. MVFR
ceilings possible Sunday night and Monday as low pressure affects
the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Today: A cold front will clear the marine waters by daybreak
this morning, with high pressure building in behind it. NW winds
10 to 15 knots will dominate the forecast, with gusts around 25
knots possible in all marine zones outside of the Charleston
Harbor. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine
waters, outside of the Charleston Harbor, into tonight. Seas are
forecast to be 4 to 5 ft in the nearshore waters and 6 to 7 ft
in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters.
Tonight: NW winds will begin to subside slightly late tonight,
with only the Charleston nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm
offshore GA waters remaining in a Small Craft Advisory into
Friday.
Friday through Monday: High pressure will build over the marine
zones on Friday, winds decreasing to around 10 kts. Wave heights
should subside during the day, falling below 6 ft Friday morning.
Small Craft Advisories are scheduled to end by mid-day Friday. High
pressure should provide benign conditions through this weekend. Low
pressure will begin to develop west of the region on Monday. As a
result, winds and wave heights should increase through Monday. Gusty
winds and building seas may require Small Craft Advisories starting
over portions of the waters on Monday.
Rip Currents: Modest swell energy will continue today, maintaining a
Moderate Risk for rip currents along all local SC/GA beaches. A
moderate risk will remain along the Charleston County beaches on
Friday, low risk to the south.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-374.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352-
354.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED
Office: CAE
FXUS62 KCAE 301027
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
627 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies with breezy conditions expected today behind a
front that moved through overnight. Multiple days of dry, but
relatively cool temps continue through the weekend, including
the potential for patchy frost early Saturday morning. The next
chance for rainfall comes early next week as a system approaches
the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and cool air filtering into the area through the day
- Gusty winds expected through the afternoon and evening
A strong cold front has officially pushed through the majority
of the Midlands, with just the eastern Pee Dee region remaining
ahead of the front. PWs have rapidly fallen and the front has
officially scoured out the wedge conditions. Clouds are quickly
scattering across the area from west to east and should yield
mostly clear conditions within a few hours. Much cooler
temperatures are also expected by sunrise as low to mid 40s are
advecting eastward across GA. While these likely won't quite
make it to the eastern Midlands by morning, they'll end up
settling across the central/western Midlands and CSRA.
As we get into the day, the upper level trough is forecast to
continue pivoting northeastward. Upper level convergence will
foster surface high pressure rapidly advancing eastward through
the day today, with cold and dry advection keeping things benign
otherwise. It does look like winds will be breezy through the
day, with gusts upwards of 30 mph possible this afternoon. Highs
will again be cool, with temps only in the low 60s. Tonight,
temps are forecast to chill out a bit except over the lakes.
Cold advection favors strong overnight mixing over our large
lakes as the lake water temps are still much warmer than the
surrounding air is. With a low-level jet on the order of 25-30
knots, this should favor Lake Wind Advisory criteria being met
on area lakes. Aside from this, lows should only end up in the
low 40s as winds look to remain elevated through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and relatively cool conditions continue.
- Potential for frost continues to increase for late Friday
night/early Saturday morning.
Friday and Friday Night: High pressure continues to build in
over the region as the upper low continues to move away from the
area. Despite the upper low pulling away, we're still expected
to be under a broad trough for the day. As a result of this
combination, temps remain on the cool side through the day with
even drier air moving into the area. Efficient radiational
cooling should allow for temps to drop rather quickly, so the
trick-or-treaters may need an extra layer while stocking up on
candy. Potential for frost late Friday night/early Saturday
morning continues to increase and Frost Advisories may need to
be issued.
Saturday and Saturday Night: A developing upper low over the
Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast to dig southward through
the day, which looks to be our next chance for precipitation.
That said, Saturday remains dry as surface high pressure
persists through the day. Moisture does begin to return some due
to the upper trough digging southward shifting flow to more
southwesterly.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Dry conditions continue Sunday.
- The next chance for rain arrives early next week.
The aforementioned upper trough and developing low continue to
deepen for the last half of the weekend, but the area should
remain dry. Guidance has come into a little better agreement,
but there are still plenty of differences. Therefore, the
forecast remains uncertain with this next system. Chances for
precipitation also return for the early week due to this system,
with when, where, and how much being dependent on its evolution.
Dry conditions return after whatever rain we may or may not get.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are present at all sites sans OGB, with an
expectation that there may be some tempo ceiling issues through
mid to late morning.
Low clouds have actually been a bit more pesky than previously
expected, despite drier air pushing in and scouring out our
wedge. Stratocumulus/stratus continues to pass across the TAF
sites, with it being pretty persistently around 1500' at OGB.
Satellite reveals that this could push into the Columbia sites
soon, with more possibly overspreading AGS/DNL after 12z. This
isn't certain but winds are still southwesterly as opposed to
northwesterly (downslope winds in that case), so the clouds are
less likely to completely scour out than previously thought.
Regardless, the cloud cover should be far less copious than it
has been for most of this week, and it should eventually rise to
VFR sometime this afternoon before dissipating altogether
tonight. The breezy conditions, with gusts of 20-25 knots, are
still expected this afternoon, quieting down after sunset.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Other than some gusty winds late
Thursday, no other significant aviation concerns into the
weekend.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
for GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Office: GSP
FXUS62 KGSP 301055
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
655 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Skies clear east of the mountains today with temperatures trending
warmer. Showers may continue into tonight in the mountains near the
Tennessee border. Dry weather is most likely to continue through the
weekend, with temperatures staying slightly below normal for this
time of year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1:50 AM EDT Thursday: The cold front is currently making
its way across our fcst area from the SW, with the last of the
pre-frontal showers moving northward over the I-77 corridor.
These showers should move north of our CWA over the next couple
of hrs with drier air gradually pushing into the region as the
attendant sfc low lifts to the north over the OH Valley. Steady
precip is expected over the NC mtns, especially in the vicinity
of the NC/TN border thanks to NW flow orographic enhancement.
Freezing levels will drop into the morning as significant height
falls will be in place with the passage of the closed low aloft.
Thus, some amount of wintry precip is possible at elevations above
roughly 5000 ft for a short period of time around daybreak this
morning. Profiles suggest that there should be a mixture of snow
and rime ice as saturation barely taps into the dendritic growth
zone. Only minor accumulations can be expected and they shouldn't
cause any significant impacts. Morning lows should be a few deg
below normal for most locations, as gradual clearing filters in
from SW to NE.
Otherwise, the NW flow precip should linger thru much of today,
but should become all liquid by the afternoon as temperatures and
freezing levels increase with daytime heating. CAD erosion and a
developing downslope wind component should help sct out lingering
cloud cover today, with drier air filtering into the region as the
occluded sfc low lifts further NE. With better insolation and drier
conditions (outside of the NC/TN border area), expect aftn highs to
approach 60 deg across most of the lower terrain, which is still 5
to 10 deg below normal for late Oct. Over the mtns, highs will remain
more like 10 to 20 deg below normal, with better cloud cover within
the NW flow regime. As the dry advection continues thru the day today,
deeper mixing will help bring down some of the gusts aloft to the sfc
across our area. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph can be expected across our CWA
this aftn/evening. Gusts will strengthen over the NC mtns later this
evening into the 30 to 40 mph range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Thu: Gusty winds of 35-45 mph could still occur through
midday Friday, with gradient relaxing such that 850mb winds diminish
and the potential gusts do as well. That's not to say it won't be a
breezy day, with continuing NW winds sustained at near 10 mph across
the area. Most areas will trend slightly warmer, most notably in the
Savannah Valley nearest the incoming ridge. Maxes still several
degrees below normal.
Surface winds trend light Friday night as sfc high centers over the
Deep South. Temps fall thru the 50s during the evening in the
Piedmont and mountain valleys. A deep dry layer aloft should support
good radiation initially and thus decoupling. Went slightly lower
than NBM for lows Saturday morning. Given that the high is building
in from the west and not coming directly from the north, RH will be
relatively high overnight and as temps largely fall into the mid 30s
in the areas where the frost/freeze program remains active, patchy
frost is expected. Not yet confident it will be widespread enough for
a Frost Advisory, but that decision is not normally made this early
anyway. Some of the more decoupling-prone areas in the foothills near
the Blue Ridge Escarpment could see a light freeze, so some
consideration could be given to Freeze Warning in those areas. Still
too early for a Watch given insufficient confidence.
Light winds back to SW'ly Saturday with high clouds beginning to
return ahead of digging trough in the Mid-South and lower Ohio
Valley. Temps will moderate slightly although still 2-5 below normal
in most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Thu: Upper low will sink southward thru the mid-MS
Valley Saturday night. A baroclinic zone gins up as this occurs,
somewhere between Mississippi and eastern KY. Models remain in
surprisingly poor agreement given this now is soon enough to fall
into the range of the NAM, hence the spread in location.
Slight-chance (~20%) PoPs spread to the TN/NC border Saturday night
and come and go thru Sunday. Wide spread also seen in 850mb temps
given differing depictions of WAA over our area related to the low
position. Judging from prog soundings from the available models,
moistening from the top down looks more likely at this time than a
saturated inversion, so in those few high mountain elevations where
temps fall to near freezing, snow is mentioned and not FZRA.
Realistically if temps are that cold it probably would be dry
anyway.
The model spread continues to limit confidence later Sunday through
early Tuesday. Recent model runs have generally fallen into two
camps, basically whether the low will remain cut off and activate a
warm front near/over the CWA, or if it would scurry out to the
Atlantic as an open wave with little precip falling here. There
appears a growing consensus for the former, although where the warm
front sets up remains a sticking point and some solutions show the
resulting precip missing the CWA. And now, with the low looking to
track to our south, some solutions produce deformation-zone precip
overhead. Our forecast keeps PoPs no better than slight-chance late
Sunday thru Monday, with a precip mention only currently falling out
over the western and eastern fringes of the CWA. Expect further
changes. Right now, based on sfc temps a few high elevation spots
get a mention of snow in this second wave as well. The same idea
applies: it probably will end up colder and drier or warmer and
wetter. With another area of high pressure filling in behind the
departing low under quasi-zonal flow, daily max temps do look to end
up a tad above normal in most areas by Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The cold front is now moving east of
our fcst area with any associated showers also east/north of
our area. Cigs should continue to steadily lift/sct generally
from the SW to NE, with VFR cigs expected to return at most
sites by roughly 14z. The lingering moist airmass will be slow
to dry and winds likely won't pick up substantially until later
this morning. Otherwise, sct cumulus/stratocu in the 3000 to
6000 ft range is expected through at least the morning hrs,
although sct to occasional bkn MVFR level clouds will be po-
ssible thru the day at KAVL. Winds will gradually veer from
SWLY this morning to more WLY this afternoon/evening with low-
end gusts of 15 to 22 kts expected. At KAVL, winds will pick
up from the N/NW around sunrise. They will remain NWLY for the
rest of the taf period with gusts of 15 to 25 kts.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail Friday and Saturday
before the next frontal system approaches the area Sunday
into early next week with possible associated restrictions.
In addition, mtn valley fog/low stratus will be possible each
morning in the more sheltered valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JCW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...JPT
