pa discuss
Office: CTP
FXUS61 KCTP 021856
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
156 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Seasonable and dry for most of central PA through Tuesday,
chances of precipitation limited to northern PA on Monday.
* Rounds/bouts of showers from Wednesday through the weekend.
* Several breezy to windy periods during the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure currently observed near the PA/NJ border
will gradually continue drifting eastward off the Atlantic Coast
this evening. Mostly dry conditions are expected in the near-
term with radar echos across northern Maryland having to contend
with dry air to get to the surface. Cloud cover across western
Pennsylvania will gradually diminish this evening, with recent
HREF model guidance indicating increasing low-level cloud decks
this evening and overnight. Minimum temperatures overnight into
Monday morning will generally range from the mid-30s across the
northwest where radiational cooling will allow for slightly
cooler temperatures to the lower 40s across the southeast where
clouds are expected to linger tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Zonal flow pattern begins to take hold across the country this
week with the first of multiple progressive troughs crossing the
region on Monday with an associated cold front in the afternoon
hours. The air mass associated with this trough will remain
fairly dry, with PWATs in the 0.25-0.50" range. Any shower
activity on Monday will be limited downwind of Lake Erie with
current forecast slightly increasing PoPs in the late Monday
afternoon/early evening timeframe. Cold front passage will bring
about gusty winds across the region beginning Monday afternoon
and continuing into Tuesday. At this time, forecast wind gusts
in the 20-30 mph range, with the ceiling closer to the 30-40 mph
range. Given this ceiling, no flags out for a Wind Advisory
this cycle, although will need to continue to monitor trends in
model guidance/forecast sounding data.
Widespread dry conditions are in the forecast by early Tuesday
morning, with any residual showers limited to far western Warren
County with any remaining lake response. Any lingering
precipitation is expected to taper off quickly by sunrise,
giving way to dry conditions with mostly sunny skies and mild
temperatures on Tuesday. Clouds begin to increase later in the
short-term period (Tuesday Night) ahead of the next system that
will approach central Pennsylvania for the middle of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The bulk of model guidance remains to outline fair agreement
with regards to the large-scale pattern with the most uncertain
aspect of the forecast manifesting with regards to timing of
individual disturbances. Model guidance continues to hone in on
the Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning for the
middle of the week disturbance, with slightly more
uncertainty/activity this upcoming weekend. Current forecast
outlines some potential for rain/snow showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, especially for areas north of I-80 due to
sufficient low-level temperatures; however, better chances for
snow will come across higher elevations Saturday night into
Sunday morning along with Sunday evening into Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak low pressure system moving to the south of PA early
this afternoon has resulted in some mid level clouds over the
southwestern part of the state. Some model guidance have these
clouds spreading to the northeast later today, so went with mid
level clouds at all sites.
Main issue will be gusty winds by mid to late morning on Monday,
as a fast moving cold front moves across the area. Gusty winds
likely to linger into Tuesday. The front has limited moisture to
work with. Highest chance of a shower would be BFD. Some hints
that a few showers could work in from the southeast into MDT
and LNS on Monday as well, given a low to our south. Left these
two sites dry for now, as we would be on the extreme northern
edge of this system.
Overall much of the stormy weather this week will stay to the
south. Weak low pressure systems tracking across the north will
have little moisture to work with. The main issue from time to
time will be gusty winds and bands of fast moving light showers.
Outlook...
Tue...Mainly VFR with a gusty northwest wind.
Wed...Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Restrictions
possible in the N/W, otherwise VFR.
Thu...Showers/restrictions possible early, improving late.
Fri...Increasing clouds with more in the way of widespread
showers. Restrictions possible. Becoming windy.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
AVIATION...Martin
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 021928
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
228 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today before shifting offshore
tonight. A weak coastal low will slide by to the south and east on
Monday, followed by a weak cold front on Monday night. High pressure
returns on Tuesday into Wednesday, before another cold front crosses
through the region Wednesday night. High pressure briefly builds in
for Thursday and Friday before a stronger low pressure system
impacts the region for next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the Northeast slides offshore
tonight. Meanwhile, closed H5 low over the Tennessee Valley and
northern portions of the Gulf Coast states tracks east and
slides off the Southeast coast tonight through Monday. As it
does, surface low pressure develops and intensifies off the
Southeast coast during this time and lifts north towards the
Mid-Atlantic coast during the day Monday. This low should not
track too close to the coast, as it will drift northeast away
from the coast as another H5 trough passes north of the region.
In terms of sensible weather, tranquil conditions this
afternoon through tonight. High clouds will increase and thicken
during the overnight hours. A light southwest flow this
afternoon will become nearly calm tonight. Light warm air
advection will result in warmer temperatures tonight compared to
Saturday night as lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for
most of southeast Pennsylvania and most of New Jersey, and in
the mid 40s or so along the urban corridor from around
Philadelphia to Wilmington and over Delmarva. Lows will be in
the upper 40s along the coasts due to the proximity to the
relatively warmer ocean waters.
Between offshore low pressure tracking near the coast and the
H5 trough passing north of the area, skies will be cloudy. Any
rain should mostly be confined to Delaware Beaches and the
Jersey Shore, but low chance PoPs will extend back towards the
Garden State Parkway and slight chance PoPs back towards the
I-95 corridor. QPF will be light, generally as much as 1/10" or
so along the coasts and trace amounts to maybe a couple of
hundredths of an inch inland.
Highs on Monday will generally be in the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Overall, mostly sensible weather is expected for the Monday night
through Wednesday night period. A trough axis departs the region
Monday night with quasi-zonal flow filling in its place through
Wednesday. Another shortwave trough approaches by Wednesday night.
At the surface, a weak surface front passes through early Monday
evening with broad high pressure building in from the south on
Tuesday. This high then slides offshore Tuesday night. A weak low
will track across northern New York on Wednesday with a trailing
cold front crossing through the Mid-Atlantic region at night.
All in all, mostly clear and sunny skies are expected through
Tuesday night. Monday night lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
with highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday night
will feature slightly colder temps, with lighter winds causing
temps to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s. This could pose a threat
for frost development on agriculture where the growing season
remains active. Otherwise, a gradual increase in cloud cover is
expected on Wednesday, albeit, highs will be ~5 degrees warmer with
southerly return flow setting up ahead of a cold front that will
cross through Wednesday night. The daytime period will remain dry
with a 20-40% chance of showers at night (mainly north of Philadelphia).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A continuation of sensible and seasonable weather is expected
through Thursday night with broad but expansive high pressure
settling over the Great Lakes on Thursday before shifting off the
East Coast on Friday. Mainly clear skies with seasonable
temperatures are expected...with potential frost/freeze concerns on
Thursday night where the growing season remains active.
By Friday, the pattern will become more active and progressive as a
series of quick-moving systems impact the region for the weekend.
High pressure shifts off the coast on Friday as an area of low
pressure tracks through southeast Canada early Saturday. Beyond
Friday night, guidance diverges significantly as there are notable
timing differences amongst features. For this reason, have stuck
close to NBM guidance which carries a 40-60% chance of showers
across the entire region Friday night into Saturday. Beyond this
point, the weather pattern looks to be unsettled, resulting in a
chance of showers to be mentioned for Sunday as well.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today...VFR. Light SW winds. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. LGT/VRB to nearly calm winds. High confidence.
Monday...Overall VFR. Brief MVFR conditions possible at KACY
and possibly KMIV in light rain in the afternoon. Light S to SW
winds. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday night...VFR. Wind gusts up to 20
kt possible during the day. A chance of showers for Wednesday
night.
Thursday through Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon, tonight and
Monday. SE winds generally 10 to 15 kt through most of Monday,
turning W-NW with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas generally around
2 feet through Monday.
Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for both the Atlantic Coastal Waters and Delaware Bay for
wind gusts of 25-30 kt and seas up to 5 feet.
Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.
Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely with wind gusts
up to 30 kt and seas building up to 6 feet.
Thursday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible late Friday,
but largely no marine headlines expected.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 3 PM EST Tuesday for
ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS
MARINE...DeSilva/MPS
Office: PBZ
FXUS61 KPBZ 021854
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
154 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Near-normal temperatures are generally favored this week, save
a few day-to-day fluctuations. Light rain chances increase north
of Pittsburgh late Wednesday, with more substantial rain
chances on Friday on a cold front with a potential cooldown
thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry with decreasing clouds and above average temperatures.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Despite surface high pressure persisting, southwest flow
downstream of a closed low in the southeast has allowed a but of
mid-to upper moisture to encroach through the day. This has
produced some returns on radar, but precipitation observations
have been few and far between with dry air near the surface, as
evidenced by the 12Z sounding. Cloud cover has generally
stalled temperature rebounds thus far below forecast, but
nonetheless, highs should still remain above average with
southwest flow.
Throughout the day, the forecast favors upper subsidence
winning out, decreasing cloud fractions into tonight, though
there is some uncertainty in this. Should clouds be maintained
longer, temperatures may remain above average overnight. In the
event they clear as forecast, a calm night with average low
temperatures is favored.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Low probability light showers along / sprinkles north of I-80 Monday
- Dry and seasonable conditions persist otherwise.
----------------------------------------------------------------
A fast-moving shortwave will cross the region Monday afternoon
and push a weak surface cold front through the region during
the afternoon along with an associated moisture-starved front.
The frontal boundary result in little more than a wind shift
(veering to the west) and slight uptick in clouds, but enough
cold advection at 850mb could create a lake- enhanced shower
that skirts areas north of I-80. Any precipitation that falls
will be short-lived, very light, and result in little, if any,
measurable rain. Otherwise, near normal temperature with breezy
afternoon winds will characterize the day.
Strong surface high pressure developing south of the region
underneath quasi-zonal flow (slight NW angle though) portends
continued dry weather for Tuesday. Subtle cool advection will
knock area readings down a degree or two from Monday but still
be near the daily average.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- Next system arrives Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning,
with variances on southern extent of precipitation field.
- Active pattern hints at potentially deeper trough development
heading into the next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fast shortwave movement out of the Pacific northwest is
expected to enter the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. Ensembles strongly
favor the trough center remaining north of the region but vary
in the degree of depth (with nominal timing variances), which
will play a major role in the southward extent of precipitation
chances. The speed of movement and high likelihood of marginal
cooling aloft/behind the surface front minimizes the risk of
developing winter precipitation types while keeping rainfall
accumulations low (current data suggests only 15-30% probability
of totals exceeding 0.25").
The brief cooldown Thursday is likely to feature dry weather as
high pressure returns underneath brief shortwave ridging.
Ensembles suggest the pattern remains active thereafter with
additional shortwave movement creating periodic precipitation
chances starting Friday. However, cluster analysis suggests that
variations in trough depth as well as timing suggests a more
unclear picture for exact timing of future precipitation periods
and degree of cooling (plus any potential temperature rebound).
It is unlikely any scenario will feature headline-worthy
weather, but a mention of higher elevation snow (low
accumulation) could enter the discussion late in the weekend
into the following week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances of VFR skies remain >80% through the period with surface
high pressure and upper subsidence. That will not stop some
impinging high cirrus and diurnal high-based cumulus under the
upper deck. Wind will remain very light and south-southwesterly
today, becoming calmer overnight. Wind gusts return tomorrow,
increasing into the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will continue to support high confidence (>80%
chance) of VFR through at least mid week. A weak disturbance
brings rain chances back to the area Wednesday into Thursday,
but confidence in any associated restrictions impacting area
terminals remains low at this time.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek/88
SHORT TERM...Frazier/88
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Milcarek
