or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 252312
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
312 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025
.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...26/00z TAFs...High clouds are moving into southwest
Oregon with a weak warm front. This front will mainly stay north of
the area with some rain moving into the coast and the Umpqua Valley.
VFR is expected through this evening, with areas of MVFR developing
along the coast and in northern Douglas County tonight through
Wednesday morning. Areas of MVFR may linger along the coast north of
Cape Blanco Wednesday afternoon. Inland expect mainly VFR with areas
of IFR/LIFR developing in low clouds and patchy fog late tonight and
Wedensday morning for valleys west of the Cascades, including at
Medford and Roseburg. Confidence moderate for IFR/LIFR in valleys
since high clouds are present and may limit fog/low clouds from
forming. However guidance continues to support chances for valley
IFR/LIFR so have kept mention of this in the TAF for Roseburg and
Medford.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 125 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...The week will start out with limited impacts from
weather, then a front will bring chances for rain Thursday into
Thursday night, followed by colder weather on the weekend and into
Monday.
Today through Wednesday, a warm front will move inland just north
of the area, bringing chances for light rain to Coos and Douglas
counties. A weak ridge will keep most the area dry with chances
for light rain limited mainly to Coos and Douglas counties.
Overnight, guidance supports a chance for patchy fog and low
clouds to develop late tonight and early Wedensday morning in
western valleys, including the Rogue, Applegate, Illinois and
lower Klamath River valleys. A limiting factor will be high clouds
which may limit fog development.
Wednesday night, a low pressure center will approach the Pacific
Northwest with a cold front moving onshore Thursday morning and
inland during the day Thursday. This will bring chances for light
rain to western portions of the area, followed by showers
Thursday night as the low moves inland north of the area.
Ensembles show variability on which areas will see rain Thursday
and Thursday night, with high chances for rain (80-100%) along the
coast and rain likely (50-85% chance) inland across Josephine and
Douglas counties and the south- central Cascades. Additionally,
there are chances (10-40%) for rain across other areas including
Jackson, Josephine and northern Klamath counties. Snow levels will
be high on Thursday (6000-7500 feet), lowering slightly (to
5500-6000 feet) Thursday night. So expect only higher peaks to
see light snow with and behind this frontal passage.
On the weekend and into Monday, a colder air mass moves in place
with a high pressure ridge building offshore and a deepening
trough centered to the east. Saturday will be a transition day
with this pattern beginning. Additionally a weak shortwave may
move into the area Saturday and Saturday night, bringing chances
for rain west of the Cascades and chances for snow in the southern
Oregon Cascades and over portions of Klamath and Lake counties.
Ensembles show significant variability and confidence is low in
the track and strength of this disturbance. Overall, models have
trended lower on the chance for precipitation during this period
though. We will continue to monitor and update as confidence in
the details increases.
Drier but colder conditions are expected Sunday into Monday, with
a ridge offshore and a deepening trough centered east of the area.
This trough will allow cold air to move southward out of Canada
and into the region. East of the Cascades, low temperatures in
the teens to near 20 are expected Sunday and Monday. Cold air will
filter into areas west of the Cascades as well with lows expected
in the lower to mid 30s (for valleys west of the Cascades) and
locally in the 20s (for valleys in central Siskiyou).
Monday night and Tuesday, ensembles support a shortwave trough
moving down from the north bringing chances for light rain and
mountain snow.
MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Tuesday, November 25, 2025...Relatively
calmer conditions will continue through Wednesday. While a slight
uptick in south winds is expected this evening, we are expecting to
remain below advisory levels for the most part; however, some
isolated areas across the northern waters could briefly see small
craft conditions this evening.
A low pressure system is expected to enter the region Wednesday
night resulting in hazardous conditions due to a combination of a
fresh swell and wind-driven seas. At this time, we are expecting
solid advisory level steep seas across all waters, but isolated
areas of very steep seas are possible across our waters north of
Cape Blanco. These conditions are possible Wednesday night through
Friday morning. Rain showers are also likely over the waters
Thursday.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$
CC/CC/CC
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 260431 AAA
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
831 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025
Updated aviation discussion
.SYNOPSIS...The arrival of a warm-frontal system this afternoon
kicks off a fairly wet stretch of weather for NW Oregon and SW
Washington through Thursday. At least snow-levels climbing to
6,000-8,500 feet will help to mitigate any significant travel
concerns across the Cascade Passes. Conditions gradually trend
drier Friday into Saturday with lingering precipitation largely
pinned to higher terrain features - snow levels drop to the
passes by late Friday and Saturday. Looking ahead, guidance
continues to show a cooling trend taking hold by early next
week, however, beyond the potential for our coldest low
temperatures of the season additional impacts appear minimal
through Tuesday at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...This afternoon a warm
frontal system has taken aim at the region by steering a stream
of atmospheric moisture into western Oregon and Southwest
Washington. Currently surface observations show above freezing
temperatures across the the Cascades passes helping to keep
travel impacts largely in check before snow levels have a
chance to jump to 6,000-8,000 ft later this evening - highest
relative snow levels south near Willamette pass. As we progress
through tonight, this elongated band of rainfall oriented WSW to
ENE is expected to slowly shift southward with the majority of
deterministic and ensemble guidance depicting the axis of
heaviest rainfall south of the Portland/Vancouver metro by
sunrise Wednesday. That said, moisture begins to slowly creep
northward through the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening
thanks to a developing secondary low pressure system over the
eastern Pacific. Between high resolution guidance and global
models there is still some lingering uncertainty as to just how
quickly this S to N transition takes place - if precipitation
stalls and get hung up over a section of Western Oregon and
Southwest Washington longer than anticipated some of the more
responsive rivers, primarily in the coast range and Willapa
Hills, may be more impacted. However, the chances for minor
river flooding appear low (<15%) at this time. Confidence in the
QPF forecast through Wednesday night is only moderate due to
this previously mentioned uncertainty.
Turning our attention to the developing low pressure system off
the coast Wednesday night into Thursday, the latest 12z
ensemble runs for the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS (including their
deterministic counterparts) have continued project the core of
the low moving into Washington/Oregon coastline. There's a bit
of N to S variability on where exactly where along the coast
the low will move inland, but the majority of the ensemble
members suggest this will be somewhere between central
Washington and northern Oregon. This is further south when
compared to yesterdays 12z model runs in addition to a slight
delay in arrival time. Ultimately, there's not much change in
the overall impacts with this system except for potentially
slightly increased winds depending on exactly where the low sets
up. Current probability for 30+ mph winds are 10-25% for
interior lowlands and 50-70% along the coast, mainly Astoria
southward. Probability for 40+ mph winds drop to less than 5%
across the interior lowlands and 25-30% along the coast. Rain
amounts for a localized area will likely fluctuate based on the
exact low track too, but not expecting a significant amount of
rain on top of accumulation from the preceding warm-frontal
system overhead. From Thursday through Thursday night expect
another 0.15-0.25 inch for the central and southern Willamette
Valley, 0.3-0.75 inch for the northern Willamette Valley into
the SW Washington lowlands, 0.5-1.25 inches along the coast and
Coast Range, and 0.5-2 inches along the Cascades (highest SW
WA).
Then Friday into the weekend and beyond, model uncertainty
increases further as both deterministic and ensemble systems
struggle to resolve the placement of the upper-level longwave
pattern across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS. On
Saturday in particular guidance is split as to whether another
shortwave trough near British Columbia dives southward into the
Pacific Northwest, or if high pressure ridge over the eastern
Pacific strengthens enough to keep this feature well to our
east. As of 12z, around 65-70% of GEFS/EPS ensemble members, and
the ECMWF AIFS favor a drier solution Saturday while the other
30-35% of ensemble members and deterministic ECMWF would
facilitate a period of shower activity which would almost
certainly bring light snowfall to the passes. At the very least
all models solutions do show the development of broad northerly
flow which favors a cooling trend into Sunday and Monday,
although the vast majority of guidance (80%+) now keep the
coldest airmass near the Rockies. The NBM probabilities for
subfreezing low temperatures across the lowlands are still
rather good, generally 45-75%, by Monday morning which will give
us a shot for the lowest temperatures of the season thus far.
Come Tuesday models do hint at a potential shortwave sliding
south-southeastward into the Pacific Northwest which would
increase showery precipitation chances again. All in all, the
overall model spread is moderate to large during this early
next week period with impacts beyond a decrease in temperatures
staying near climatological norms for late November/early
December. Still, it'll be worth keep an eye on the forecast as
we go through this week, especially if you have holiday travel
plans. -99/03
&&
.AVIATION...Moist, westerly flow aloft as an initial front pushes
light rain across the area tonight. As of 04z Wednesday,
observations show a mix of VFR and higher end MVFR conditions
across the area. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate
overnight with lowering surface visibilities and CIGs.
Probabilities for CIGs below 3000 ft increases to 70-90% from
north to south after 06z while probabilities for CIGs below 1000
ft increases to 10-30%. At the coast IFR cigs are likely (60-70%)
after 08z Wed. Overall, inland terminals will trend towards
predominately MVFR while coastal terminals trend towards
predominately IFR. Expect very little improvement through the day
on Wednesday as widespread stratiform rain continues and cigs hold
fairly steady.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...As of 04z Wed, VFR conditions are holding,
but CIGs are lowering (FL035). Expect conditions to fall to MVFR
by 06z and continue to gradually deteriorate through Wednesday
morning, with a 30-40% chance of CIGs falling to IFR around 14z
Wed. Once CIGs fall to IFR or MVFR thresholds, expect very little
to no improvement through 06z Thursday as light rain continues.
&&
.MARINE...South winds up to around 30 kt will continue through
Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front that will move over the
coastal waters Tuesday night. Seas will rise to 9-11 ft at 12
seconds by Tuesday night, continuing through early Wednesday
morning before falling to around 7-8 ft after sunrise. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM Wednesday for all marine
zones, except through 1 AM Wednesday for the Columbia River Bar,
to cover the gusty southerly winds through Tuesday evening and for
the period of steeper seas to follow.
Another frontal system approaches the waters sometime Wednesday
night into Thursday, though there are still uncertainties in exact
timing. Another round of increased southerly wind gusts up to at
least 30 kt is expected with this system. There's a 45-60% chance
for maximum wind gusts to peak around 35 kt for all marine zones,
though 3 hourly probabilities drop to 10-20%, indicating
widespread gale force wind gusts are unlikely to occur. Seas will
most likely peak near 14-16 ft late Thursday with a 5-10% chance
seas peak as high as 20 ft. This is due to the uncertainty regarding
the exact strength and track of the closed surface low and the
frontal system accompanying the low. Regardless of the outcome
for this system, winds and seas will lower significantly on
Friday. Winds and seas over the upcoming weekend are currently
forecast to stay below small craft advisory thresholds with a
period of offshore flow. -23/03
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ251>253-
271>273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 260552
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
952 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025
.Updated Aviation Discussion.
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR conditions currently across all sites,
with the exception of KALW which is experiencing MVFR conditions due
to reduced visibilities of 5SM. Conditions are expected to degrade
to MVFR for KDLS/KPDT/KYKM overnight in response to ceilings of 2-
3kft and visibilities of 4-6SM. Widespread light rain is occurring
at all sites, except for KRDM/KBDN, which will persist into the
early morning hours on Wednesday as the system sags to the south.
Light rain returns late in the period as the next system
approaches the area. Winds will stay light and below 10 kts across
all sites. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Morning: Current radar and
satellite imagery this afternoon shows the leading edge of a warm
front boundary pushing a very light band of precipitation across
the Columbia Basin, with light to moderate rain/snow falling
across the WA Cascade crest and Kittitas valley.
The frontal boundary will continue to push across the PacNW
tonight, allowing a warm, moist airmass to filter into the region
and for snow levels to rise above pass level by tomorrow morning.
That said, this warm airmass will be slow to mix out stubborn
cold pool pockets across portions of the WA Cascade east slopes,
Blues, Wallowa/Kittitas valleys, and higher elevations of the
Yakima valley overnight, where snow(mountains) or a rain/snow mix
(valleys) will mostly dominate the precipitation type. Forecast
soundings indicate that the warmer airmass will override these
areas when precipitation is ongoing tonight, resulting in low to
moderate chances(20-50%) for light freezing rain (0.01-0.1 inches)
to mix in with snow and/or rain between 10PM and 7AM tonight and
tomorrow morning. In the remainder of the lower elevation areas,
the warm airmass will have less trouble mixing down to the surface
resulting in mostly light rain throughout tomorrow morning. In
the mountains, light to moderate snow accumulations will continue
into tonight before transitioning into a rain/snow mix or mostly
rain by tomorrow morning. Late in the morning into the early
afternoon, a brief break in precipitation will develop before the
next system arrives to the forecast area.
There is moderate to high confidence (55-85%) that by tomorrow
morning the WA Cascade east slopes will see 5-8 inches of snow
accumulations; the Kittitas/Wallowa valleys and ridges of the
Yakima valley will see up to 1.5 inches of snowfall; The Northern
Blues will see 3 to 6 inches of snowfall; and the OR Cascades 1 to
3 inches of snowfall. In the aforementioned areas, there is also a
moderate confidence (50-70%) in at least a light glaze of ice
accumulations through tomorrow morning.
Wednesday Afternoon through Friday: Ensemble and deterministic
guidance are in good agreement that a transient ridge will slide
over the PacNW Wednesday afternoon. While conditions would
normally remain dry under a ridge, a warm front lifting north late
Wednesday afternoon will result in a renewal of light rain with
high mountain snow or rain/snow mix through Wednesday
night(confidence 55-75%).
High mountain snow and/or a wintry mix with lower elevation rain
will continue Thursday as a closed low slides into WA, then
opening into a trough and swinging southeast as the low feature
pushes further inland Thursday night through Friday morning. By
Friday night the trough will exit the region to the southeast with
a dry northwest flow developing aloft. This will result in
precipitation chances waning across the region into
Saturday(confidence 50-75%).
Saturday through Tuesday: Ensemble cluster guidance begins in
disagreement for Saturday as about 30% of members from the ECMWF
and GFS ensemble suites show another shortwave trough diving
across the PacNW by Saturday morning, with light low elevation
rain and mountain snow developing across the forecast area.
Meanwhile, the remaining 70% continue with a dry northwest flow
aloft and little to no precipitation chances across the forecast
area. Sunday through Monday, ensemble cluster solutions are in
much better agreement with each solution depicting an upper ridge
developing and a dry, cold northerly flow aloft parked over the
PacNW by Sunday night (confidence 40-75%). The ensemble cluster
solutions then depict the ridge flattening beginning late Monday,
followed by a shortwave trough diving across the forecast area by
Tuesday morning, though solutions diverge on strength and how cold
the system will be. Of the solutions, one containing about 25% of
members favors a colder solution that would result in light snow
along the northern Blue mountain foothills and eastern portions
of the Columbia Basin Tuesday morning. Lawhorn/82
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 36 50 35 47 / 90 50 50 50
ALW 38 48 38 46 / 100 50 70 60
PSC 34 46 36 45 / 90 20 50 60
YKM 31 45 35 44 / 80 10 60 70
HRI 35 48 36 45 / 80 30 50 50
ELN 28 42 33 41 / 100 10 70 90
RDM 34 55 27 54 / 30 30 10 20
LGD 34 46 34 50 / 90 70 50 40
GCD 36 50 34 55 / 60 40 20 20
DLS 39 49 41 47 / 80 60 70 80
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ026-522-
523.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...75
