or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 231609
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
909 AM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018
.UPDATE...Satellite imagery shows clouds slowly clearing in the
Umpqua basin. Expect sky cover to burn off quicker today than
yesterday, likely by early afternoon. Today will be a warm day in
Brookings, expected to reach into the 80s early this afternoon.
Otherwise, conditions today will be similar to yesterday in most
places. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the year thus far, and
the million dollar question will be how many places hit 100. Much
depends on the timing of the approaching cold front... high clouds
ahead of the front could prevent some heating, and model guidance
has trended that front approaching slightly quicker. To be clear,
Sunday will still be very hot, but a faster progression of the
cold front could mean that Medford "only" reaches 98 or 99, and
Roseburg only reaches the lower 90s. Otherwise, the current
forecast is on track, see previous discussion for more
information. -McAuley
&&
.AVIATION...For the 23/12Z TAFs...Offshore flow has developed and VFR
conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period. The
exception to this could be at North Bend. Guidance suggest MVFR cigs
could return to the coast, north of Cape Blanco, including North
Bend later tonight as weak onshore flow is expected. For now went
with MVFR cigs at North Bend later tonight, but later shifts may
need to reevaluate. -Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Saturday 23 June 2018...The thermal
trough will remain along the oregon coast through the weekend. The
models continue to show stronger north winds and building seas
expanding north during the day, but they do not show them getting
much further north than Bandon this afternoon and tonight. For now
have left the coverage area of the small craft as is in the event
future model runs show stronger winds and higher seas further north.
Later shifts will want to take another look at this.
Meanwhile, very steep and hazardous seas and occasional gale force
gusts are expected south of Gold Beach. A Gale Warning remains in
effect to account for both the expected Gale gusts and the likely
hazardous sea conditions.
The thermal trough pattern will be temporarily disrupted late Sunday
into Monday as an upper level trough moves just north of the area.
Conditions, however, are likely to remain hazardous to small craft
into next week as the upper level trough will maintain tight
pressure gradients and resultant moderate to strong northerly winds.
Very steep wind driven seas look to continue into midweek with the
thermal trough strengthening Tuesday onward. BR-y/Petrucelli
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Friday 22 June 2018...Warmer
than normal temperatures and breezy winds are expected east of
the Cascades for this evening. A thermal trough will setup along
the coast on Saturday. Winds and temperatures will then increase
along the Southern Oregon coast Saturday. The thermal trough will
retreat eastward on Sunday with temperatures increasing about ten
degrees across the region. Sunday will also be the warmest day
with high temperatures 15 to possibly 20 degrees warmer than
average. Daytime humidities will fall to the mid and lower teens
in valleys. Breezy and much cooler conditions are expected Monday
with a marine push in the west side in Oregon.
-Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 640 AM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018/
DISCUSSION...Today's temperatures should be similar to
yesterday's. However, with northeast winds on the southern coast
remaining in place through the day the Brookings area should see
high temperatures similar to the inland valleys in southern
Oregon with the Chetco effect in force through the day. These
Chetco effect winds will remain in place through the night with
low temperatures only dropping down to the mid to upper 60s in
the Brooking area in from the immediate coast. The deep thermal
trough at the coast that brought the northeast Chetco effect winds
moves inland Sunday, bringing around a 10 degree warmup inland
from today's highs, with high temps in the triple digits south of
the Umpqua divide in the west side valleys. In the Brookings area
the flow will become onshore when the thermal trough moves inland,
with high temperatures being reached probably in the morning.
As the thermal trough continues to migrate east Sunday night a
strong marine push will bring stratus and even fog to the coast
and inland into the coastal range, and with the northeast winds
pushing the stratus and fog there will be areas of drizzle from
the coastal range to the coast. The drizzle should be mostly north
of the Umpqua divide. Temperatures will obviously be much cooler
Monday compared to Sunday in this marine push flow.
A more zonal flow pattern returns Tuesday with the thermal trough
deepening along the coast once again. This will bring gradual
warning into Wednesday. Sven
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday
for PZZ350-370.
$$
MSM/SBN/MAP
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 232041
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
140 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS....Upper level high pressure passing over the Pacific
Northwest will produce warmer and sunnier weather on Sunday before an
incoming front brings cooler and cloudier conditions early next week
with a chance of light rain Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Water vapor satellite imagery
reveals a shortwave trough dropping southeastward across the Inland
Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon. Shortwave ridging
building is currently beginning to build into the Pacific Northwest
ahead of a surface low pressure system spinning in the Gulf of
Alaska. This upper level ridging will traverse the region tonight and
Sunday. This should lead to considerably fewer marine clouds on
Sunday morning and temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 80s
on Sunday. The warmup will be short lived, however, as the
aforementioned surface low pressure will push a weakening front into
the area Sunday night and Monday. This will likely bring at least
some light rain to our coastal zones during this time with a decent
chance at least some of the rain will hold together enough to impact
portions of the Willamette Valley and Cascades. The increased
moisture, clouds and cooler temperatures aloft may result in
temperatures dropping nearly 20 degrees on Monday when compared to
Sunday afternoon's readings. Northwesterly onshore flow underneath
zonal flow aloft should keep temperatures near average for the date
on Tuesday with afternoon sunshine making a return. /Neuman
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. Tue night both the 12z
GFS and 12z Euro show a shortwave ridge start to move through the
area. This will keep an onshore flow into the area, which will keep
the area on the cooler side for the first part of the week. As Wed
night approaches, a shortwave trough starts to come on shore,this
shortwave doesn't look to increase PoPs. However, a much deeper
trough will enter the area starting around Fri morning, which will
slowly start to bring PoPs up as the trough moves through Sat. For
the weekend it should be noted that the GFS has a much deeper trough
entering into the area, while the Euro shows the trough being far
shallower, but still bringing a chance for precip into the start of
next weekend. /42
&&
.AVIATION...VFR prevailing through Sun a drier northerly flow
develops in the low levels. However the north Oregon and south
Washington coast will have MVFR cigs tonight but should dissipate
early Sun.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions prevailing next 24 hours
with NW winds 6 to 10 kt through evening then easing. mh
&&
.MARINE...High pressure over the NE Pac, with thermal low
pressure over northern California and southern Oregon continues
through the weekend and most of next week. The high will
strengthen through the Sun, bringing increasingly gusty
northerly winds to the waters. Expect gusts to 25 kt over the
central OR waters each afternoon and evening over the weekend and
through the first half of next week. The exception looks to be
Mon, when another weak surface trough temporarily weakens the NE
Pac high again.
Seas remain around 2 to 4 ft through the weekend, ramping up to
5 to 7 ft by early Monday. Pyle
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM
PDT Sunday for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR
from 10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 2 PM this afternoon to 11
PM PDT this evening for Coastal waters from Cascade Head
to Florence OR out 10 NM.
&&
$$
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland
This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is
commonly referred to as the CWA or forecast area.
Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 232127
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
227 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...An upper ridge will build
over the Pacific Northwest tonight. As such will see decreasing
clouds this evening with mostly clear skies overnight. Some smoke
from wildfires will pool in north-central Oregon overnight.
Conditions will be dry and sunny Sunday with much warmer high temps
due to the upper ridge. Again some smoke will affect portions of
north-central and central Oregon. A system will move out of the Gulf
of Alaska into western Canada Sunday night into Monday. This system
will push a cold front across the region between midnight and noon
Monday. This front still looks to be mostly dry, except for a few
showers over south-central Washington. Winds will increase with and
behind the front Monday. A dry westerly flow should persist across
the region Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will remain breezy
Monday night into early Tuesday, then decrease Tuesday afternoon.
Temps are expected to run near or slightly below seasonal Monday
through Tuesday. 90
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. Westerly flow will
continue Tuesday night through Wednesday with dry conditions and
seasonal temperatures. A weak trough of low pressure will move
through Wednesday night/Thursday, with cooler temperatures and some
breezy winds, mainly through the gorge and out into the lower basin.
Another upper level trough is expected to move through Friday and
Saturday. Models are in some disagreement on development, strength
and position of system, but most likely will produce some scattered
showers mainly over the mountains as temperatures remain slightly
below seasonal values. 93
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions can be expected through the
period. Clouds over the mountains will be decreasing with mostly
clear skies overnight. Ridge will be building over pacific northwest
Sunday with mostly clear skies. Winds will become light, under 10
kts at all TAF sites and remain light through Sunday. 93
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 54 90 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 57 91 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 55 93 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 53 92 59 81 / 0 0 10 0
HRI 53 94 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 52 92 61 72 / 0 0 20 10
RDM 44 91 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 47 85 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 48 87 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 57 95 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
90/93/93
