or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 061142
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
342 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025
.DISCUSSION...A dirty ridge over the area has allowed the storm
track to be just far enough south for intermittent light rain over
Douglas and northern Coos County. Radar image is showing very light
returns in these areas. The frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary through this evening with the core of the heavier
precipitation remaining north of the forecast area.
Meanwhile, stable conditions farther south have resulted in fog and
low clouds in the Illinois, and Rogue Valleys. Meanwhile, satellite
image shows signs of stronger winds aloft along and east of the
Cascades.
Little if any precipitation is expected today through tonight, then
a warm front will move into the area bringing light to moderate
rain, especially along the north coast, coastal mountains and
Cascades late tonight into Sunday. With a strong westerly flow
aloft, rainfall is expected to be mainly along and west ofthe
Cascades with dry weather likely mostly hours and locations east of
the Cascades tonight through Sunday.
There's good agreement the front will weaken as it remains nearly
stationary late this evening through Saturday. The net result will
be decreasing precipitation late this evening with most hours and
locations dry late tonight through Saturday.
The general consensus for most of next week keeps the bulk of the
rainfall north of the forecast area. However intermittent light is
expected in northern Douglas and Coos County on the southern
fringes of the heavier core of rainfall which is likely to be
mainly from about Eugene up to western Washington next Monday
through Wednesday.
The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational
models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal
boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to
occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the
area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back
north as an upper ridge builds over the area. It's possible it
could end up dry the latter part of next week if this pans out.
It should be noted that during this time, snow levels will be above
all the passes, therefore the concern for snow is next to zero.
-Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...06/12z TAFs...Stable conditions along with ample low
level moisture has resulted in low ceilings and reduced visibilities
for most areas west of the Cascades, including areas of fog and low
clouds at the Medford terminal and Merlin airport. Guidance shows
low clouds and fog possibly persisting through 19z, before ceilings
and visibility improve in the afternoon.
Moderate to strong winds aloft will result in turbulence along and
east of the Cascades with stronger winds near and at the ridges. Low
level wind shear remains a concern at Klamath Falls this morning due
to an inversion preventing the stringer winds from mixing near and
at the surface. Most locations east of the Cascades should remain
VFR through the TAF period. -Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, December 6, 2025...South
winds are expected today as the next system approaches the area.
Steep seas will build further due to increasing northwest swell.
After a brief period of improved conditions tonight, gusty south
winds and steep seas return Sunday, especially north of Cape Blanco.
Conditions remain unsettled through the first part of next week,
with several fronts bringing periods of gusty south winds and a
likelihood of high and steep seas. -BPN/Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this
evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
PZZ350-370.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 061444 AAA
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
644 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025
Updated marine discussion and PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged wet pattern continues through early next week as
multiple frontal systems push inland. The most notable period
continues to focus on Monday through midweek, when a prolonged
atmospheric river may bring significant rainfall and rising
rivers across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. Today
and Sunday bring lighter rainfall, while Monday is expected to
produce the highest totals across southwest Washington and
northwest Oregon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Now through Friday... Light to moderate showers
persists across the area this morning as a steady southwesterly
to westerly flow feeds moisture inland. Todays precipitation
will be relatively modest with forecast totals from now to 5 AM
Sunday near 0.10-0.25 inch across interior lowlands, 0.2-0.4
inch along the coast, 0.5-1.0 inch in the Coast Range, and
0.5-1.5 inches in the Cascades. Breezy southwest winds are
expected at times with gusts typically 20-30 mph, strongest near
exposed coastal and elevated terrain.
A more organized plume arrives Sunday with IVT values around
300-500 kg/ms. That wave increases rainfall efficiency,
producing about 0.5-0.7 inch for interior lowlands, 0.7-1.5
inches along the coast, 1.5-2.5 inches in the Coast Range,
1.5-3.0 inches in the Cascades, and 0.5-1.5 inches in the Lane
County Cascades. Widespread impacts are not anticipated through
Sunday; however, if rainfall rates sustain around 0.2 to 0.3
inches per hour for several hours, a few faster-reponding
basins, such as the Grays at Rosburg and the Willapa River,
could rise quickly. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds are
expected at times with gusts typically 30-40 mph, strongest near
exposed coastal and elevated terrain.
The first strong to moderate moisture surge is forecast for
Monday afternoon. Ensemble clusters show concentrated IVT around
650-850 kg/ms for this plume, supporting prolonged, efficient
rainfall. Expected Monday rainfall jumps markedly, with interior
lowlands receiving roughly 1.25-2.50 inches (highest totals in
southwest Washington; 1.8-2.0 inches in the Portland-Vancouver
metro), coastal totals near 2.5-3.5 inches, the Coast Range and
Cascades 3-5 inches, and the Lane County Cascades 0.75-1.75
inches. Given the duration and magnitude of this plume, faster-
responding basins could see rapid rises and localized flooding;
this period warrants close monitoring.
A second strong to moderate surge of atmospheric moisture is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with ensemble means near
700-800 kg/ms. High-end ensemble solutions cluster around
850-950 kg/ms while lower-end members fall in the 550-650 kg/ms
range. Even if the second surge trends a bit weaker, the
combination of two consecutive high-IVT plumes and the residual
moisture between them will sustain elevated rainfall totals and
prolonged runoff. By midweek, soils will be saturated across
much of the region and flood risk for rivers and small streams
will increase. After the second surge, the core of the moisture
feed is expected to diminish later in the week.
Winds will be a concern Monday through Wednesday, with gusts up
to at least 30 mph inland and up to at least 40 mph at the
coast. There is a 10-20% chance for max wind gusts over 40 mph
for inland areas, and a 20-40% chance for gusts over 50 mph
along beaches and headlands. If wind gusts of this magnitude do
materialize, expect scattered downed trees and power outages.
Showery conditions will linger into Thursday and Friday as the
flow gradually weakens and dries. Snow levels are expected to
remain high (above 6000 ft) during this warm weather event,
keeping most precipitation as rain in the Cascades. Forecast
confidence in exact timing and magnitudes is still moderate
given ensemble spread. Overall, the Monday through Wednesday
time period remains the primary focus for potential high-impact
hydrologic (see hydrology section below for more details) and
wind concerns. ~12
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A series of frontal systems will keep conditions very wet
through the weekend and much of next week. The most notable
period will be late Monday through late Wednesday, when a
prolonged atmospheric river will bring significant rainfall and
the potential for widespread river flooding across southwest
Washington and northwest Oregon. Total rainfall amounts from
4am Monday to 4am Thursday (72 hour total) will most likely be
around 4 to 6 inches at the coast and interior lowlands, and 5.5
to 9.0 inches in the Coast Range and Cascades. Lane County
Cascades will be an exception, with 4-6.5 inches expected. There
is a 10% chance for rain amounts up to one foot in the Cascades
and Coast Range, up to 8-9 inches at the coast, and up to 7
inches in the Willamette Valley, Portland metro and Cowlitz
Valley. While rain amounts this high are unlikely to occur, they
represent a reasonable worst case scenario. This outcome would
result in widespread major flooding.
Although rain will likely become lighter Thursday into Friday,
the threat of flooding will linger along slow responding rivers.
Rivers draining the Coast Range and Willapa Hills have a 30-60%
chance of reaching moderate flood stage and a 20-40% chance of
reaching major flood stage. Additionally, many Willamette River
tributaries that drain from the Coast Range and Cascades have
anywhere from a 40-70% chance of reaching minor flood stage and
a 20-50% chance of reaching moderate flood stage. Flooding of
the Willamette mainstem rivers is unlikely to occur (less than
5%). Probabilities for specific river points can be found at the
National Water Prediction Service website.
There is also increasing confidence in the potential for
flooding along small creeks and streams as well as urban
flooding, including roadway flooding. Periods of heavy rain
will also increase the risk for landslides in areas of steep
terrain and debris flows over recently burned areas. People,
structures, and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons,
and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from
rapidly moving landslides.
Considering the probabilities of flooding for rivers and urban
areas, a Flood Watch has been issued for all of southwest
Washington and northwest Oregon from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...At 1030z Saturday, visibilities were in the VFR range
with cigs in the high-end MVFR to low-end VFR range, with mainly
high-end MVFR cigs at the coast and low-end VFR cigs inland. Moist
westerly flow aloft is resulting in persistent rain showers in
the Cascades and Coast Range, bringing frequent mountain
obscuration. Expect a mix of MVFR/VFR flight conditions to
continue through Saturday night before MVFR and IFR cigs become
more widespread after 12z Sunday. This is when chances for IFR
cigs increase to 20-30% for inland TAF sites and near 100% at the
coast. Breezy southwest surface winds will continue throughout the
TAF period with occasional wind gusts up to 20 kt. Steady
stratiform rain will develop across the area between 06-12z
Sunday.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect a mix of high-end MVFR to low-end VFR
cigs to continue through 12z Sunday, before trending towards low-
end MVFR or even IFR after 12z as steady stratiform rain
develops. Chances for MVFR cigs at that time peak near 90%, while
chances for IFR cigs peak near 30%. Will note that at around 700
ft MSL, winds are SSW around 30 kt. Not nearly enough to add LLWS
to the TAF, but for east approaches cannot rule out the potential
for isolated periods of gusty crosswinds. -23/27
&&
.MARINE...Seas will remain between 11 and 16 ft around 11 to 13
seconds through today before lowering to 8 to 9 ft tonight. Seas
are then forecast to remain steady until rising to 12 to 15 ft on
Monday. With dominant wave periods around 11 seconds, seas will be
steep and hazardous. In addition, expect west winds to continue
today at 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming west-
southwest 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Saturday evening.
Winds become south 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Sunday
morning. Isolated and brief gale force gusts up to 35 kt are
possible Sunday morning, especially over the inner waters. Have
mentioned this possibility in the ongoing Small Craft Advisory
that is currently in effect for the inner waters through Sunday.
Decided to upgrade the outer waters to a Hazardous Seas Warning
through Saturday evening to account for buoy observations
reporting seas a few feet higher than previously expected,
including a 17 foot northwest swell at buoy 089 that will progress
through the coastal waters Saturday morning.
Gale force wind gusts may become more widespread on Monday when
probabilities increase to 50-80% for max wind gusts over 34 kt,
highest over the northern waters. These probabilities have trended
upward since last night's update. Depending on how strong winds
get on Monday, there is the potential for seas over 15 ft.
Currently, there is a 10% chance for seas up to 18 ft. -23
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect from
for minor tidal overflow during high tide from 9 AM to 3 PM Saturday
for the south Washington coast and Clatsop County coast in Oregon.
Minor flooding up to 1 foot above ground level is possible during
high tide in low lying areas near bays, sloughs, and the low
reaches of the coastal rivers. Coastal residents in the warned
area should remain alert for rising water and take appropriate
action to protect life and property. -10
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ101.
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ201.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Sunday for PZZ251>253.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for
PZZ271>273.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM PST Sunday
for PZZ271>273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 061451
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
651 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025
.UPDATE...Winds have generally decreased in magnitude such that
wind advisory thresholds are no longer being met across a broad
area. Therefore, have either cancelled or allowed the wind
advisories to expire on time at 7 AM this morning. Will note that
exposed ridges and other especially wind-prone locations will
continue to see advisory-level winds early this morning.
Otherwise, breezy, sub-advisory winds are forecast to continue
today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025/
DISCUSSION...
Broad overview: The forecast for the next week can be succinctly
described as warm, wet, and windy. A subtropical high in the
Pacific coupled with a remarkably persistent quasi-zonal to zonal
jet stream and multiple frontal systems will direct several rounds
of subtropical to tropical moisture into the Pacific Northwest.
Key Messages:
1. Windy to very windy conditions this morning, then breezy to
windy this afternoon. Numerous Wind Advisories in effect.
2. Winter Weather Advisory in effect above 4000 feet for the
Upper Slopes of the Eastern Washington Cascades Crest through
this evening.
3. Breezy to windy conditions return Monday.
4. Ample precipitation through next Wednesday or Thursday combined
with high snow levels will lead to rises on area rivers.
Headline updates: No updates to headlines on this shift.
Precipitation is pinned to the Cascades and northern Blues this
morning with dry, windy conditions present across the lower
elevations. Snow levels are approximately 4500-6000 feet, lowest
across the Washington Cascades, but remain just too high for snow
at mountain pass levels. While temperatures are anticipated to
cool a couple degrees, they are also running a couple degrees
warmer than forecast by NBM, HREF, and REFS guidance, so thinking
snow totals for the Upper Slopes of the Eastern Washington
Cascades Crest will be lower than previously forecast. As such,
have adjusted wording in the Winter Weather Advisory to reflect
lower snow accumulations.
The main talking point today is the ongoing breezy to very windy
westerly (southwesterly to northwesterly depending on the exact
location) winds. A persistent 10-12 hPa pressure difference
between PDX and GEG and low-level jet of 45-65 kts have both been
in place overnight. Winds of 20-40 mph with gusts of 35-55 mph
have been observed across a broad swath of the Columbia Plateau,
and locally stronger winds have surfaced along exposed ridges. The
strongest winds should only last a few more hours as surface
pressure gradients and winds aloft gradually slacken, but
widespread breezy conditions are anticipated to continue into the
afternoon hours.
Lastly, will note a significant amount of precipitation is
forecast for the mountain areas Monday through Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. While confidence in precise amounts is
still low, and will depend on the exact location of the jet stream
and incoming frontal systems, the NBM places a 30-50% chance of
reaching or exceeding 5 inches of liquid equivalent across the
Oregon Cascade crest through the 72-hr period ending 4 AM
Thursday, and an even higher 50-75% chance for the Washington
Cascades. For the northern Blues, the chance of 3 inches of liquid
equivalent is 20-40%. Through the bulk of the next week, snow
levels are then forecast to remain high at mostly 5-8 kft with
periodic dips to 4.5 kft. With that in mind, much of this
precipitation is forecast to fall as rain, and rises on area
rivers are anticipated. Current forecasts from the NWRFC in
Portland do place multiple rivers at action stage or minor flood
stage by the latter half of next week.
AVIATION...12z TAFs...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Gusty winds will have peaked by the start of the period, however
gusts will continue to waver in the 20-30 kt range for some sites,
namely PDT, PSC, ALW, and DLS. LLWS may be experienced at times for
these sites, however the expectation is that the worst of the LLWS
has passed. Skies will start out generally clear to start the
period, before sct-bkn high clouds gradually build in heading into
the evening. 74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 51 39 53 44 / 40 30 90 60
ALW 51 41 52 45 / 50 40 90 70
PSC 56 40 53 44 / 10 20 80 30
YKM 54 35 51 37 / 20 30 90 30
HRI 56 41 54 44 / 20 30 80 50
ELN 48 33 45 35 / 30 30 90 40
RDM 50 33 54 38 / 20 30 50 40
LGD 46 34 43 38 / 70 50 90 90
GCD 46 33 47 39 / 50 40 80 60
DLS 55 45 54 48 / 60 80 100 80
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for WAZ522.
&&
$$
UPDATE...86
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...74
