or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 292341
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
341 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section...
&&
.AVIATION...30/00z TAFs...Areas near Grants Pass still have low
clouds with the Rogue Valley under mostly sunny skies while the
coast is under MVFR ceilings. A weak disturbance will move in from
the north tonight with an IFR/MVFR mix. Isolated showers are also
possible, highest probability from the coast to interior Douglas
County (including Roseburg), in the mountains and across the north
from late this evening into early Sunday morning. Areas of IFR/LIFR
valley fog are expected to form again overnight into Sunday
morning, and this is shown in the Medford TAF.
-Spilde/-9
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/
DISCUSSION...Not a lot has changed in the expected weather
pattern heading into the first week of December. The next several
days will be largely dominated by dry weather with a strong semi-
permanent upper ridge parked out along 140W. This pattern will
allow a couple of "inside-slider" type systems, one tonight into
Sunday and another Monday night through Tuesday night, to come
over the top of the ridge and into the PacNW. But, these systems
will have little moisture available for precipitation and will
only produce isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Focus areas
for any showers will be from the coast to the Cascades and over to
the Warner Mtns. A dusting of snow is possible over the higher
terrain with either of these disturbances, but measurable rain
amounts at lower elevations won't be much more than a few
hundredths here or there. Nighttime/morning fog/low clouds can
also be expected during this period, with the most extensive
coverage Sunday night into Monday morning between systems. The
weak disturbance Monday night into Tuesday night could cause an
uptick in afternoon N-NW breezes Tuesday afternoon, especially
over the higher terrain and east side.
Mid-late next week, a strong upper high sets up near 40N and 140W
Wednesday, weakening as it wobbles east-southeastward into next
weekend. The strength of the ridge will shape our weather, but
there's disagreement on how fast or even if this ridge will break
down completely. Right now, the upper ridge should keep us dry
Wed/Thu with models keeping the northern branch of the jet
directed mostly into BC. Snow levels also rise to above 8000 feet
during this time, so temps should average above normal. With some
weakening of the ridge, the possibility remains that systems
eventually come over the top again and into the PacNW at some
point Friday into next weekend. The official forecast, which is a
blend of the 100 member ensemble, brings increasing PoPs (20-40%
chance) to the coast and northern Douglas County Friday, then
increasing to 40-60% Friday night into Saturday. Precip chances
farther south and east though remain generally less 15%, so NorCal
locations probably remain dry.
Beyond that, most ensemble members maintain the status quo
(drier, milder) with some version of the ridge remaining offshore
and the main axis of the jet directed to our north. Some GEFS
members (including the 12z deterministic run) break the ridge down
and bring the jet farther south with a cooler, wetter solution.
These solutions are currently in the minority. As it stands, odds
currently favor the drier, milder solutions and CPC 6-10 day
forecasts (Dec 5-9) reflect this with a high likelihood (50-60%)
of above normal temperatures and odds leaning toward near to below
normal precip for southern Oregon/northern California.
-Spilde
MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November 29,
2025... Northerly winds increase slightly this evening into
tomorrow morning. Speeds further increase and eventually reach
small craft conditions south of Port Orford tomorrow evening
through Monday afternoon. North winds are expected to once again
further strengthen on Tuesday with advisory conditions likely
across southern waters. An incoming long period swell is expected
to peak at 7 to 11 ft at 16 to 19 seconds Monday into Tuesday.
Overall, seas will remain hazardous through middle parts of next
week.
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November
29, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first
arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday
morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is
anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can
occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. A Beach
Hazards Statement remains in effect to highlight this risk for
Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18
seconds Monday afternoon and evening, so while seas will be steep,
high surf conditions are not expected at beaches. If you have plans
to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be
aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to
the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly
farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and
jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep
them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn
your back on the ocean!
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for ORZ021-022.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4
PM PST Monday for PZZ376.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 292210
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
210 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the area will persist through
Sunday with a weak shortwave trough pushing southeast along the
northern edge this evening. Will see a quick shot of rain
overnight but it is not expected to widespread, and
accumulations will be light. Settled weather on Sunday and
Monday with cooler temperatures Monday morning. The next period
of active weather starts Tuesday through the end of the week
with round after round of precipitation associated with warm
fronts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Monday Night...Minimal changes to the
forecast today due to a fairly persistent pattern.
Climatologically abnormal, high pressure lingers over the area
keeping skies clear, dry, and slightly cooler. The high pressure
ridge will remain in the general area through Monday morning
though this evening a shortwave ridge will pass through the
flow. This shortwave will increase mixing and bring an influx of
moisture to the area. There is around a 30-40% chance of rain
through Sunday morning, though that is assuming the lower
elevations of the atmosphere are moist enough for the
precipitation to reach the ground. Overall, even if it does rain
no impacts are expected.
Dry conditions persist through Monday with mostly clear skies.
Winds will be lightly easterly as well which will bring in
slightly cooler air. With the clear skies and presence of cooler
air, expecting overnight temperatures to drop Sunday night into
Monday morning. Widespread minimum temperatures less than 35
degrees are expected inland, with lows in the 40s along the
coast. Probabilistically there remains a spread with the 10th
percentile (coldest solution) around 25-30 degrees in Eugene and
Corvallis, 32 degrees in Portland and along the coast, and
slightly colder in the Upper Hood River Valley and northern
Clark County. Overall, the outer rural areas have a higher
probability of freezing temperatures. These lows will quickly
rebound though through the day. Widespread frost is possible in
the interior lowlands which could accumulate on some metal
surfaces. Fog is more likely to the south where there is a 50%
chance of dense fog around Eugene.
Clouds will fill in through the afternoon as a warm front shifts
towards the area. The warm front is not overly robust and
precipitation amounts have decreased over the last several days.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Rain will persist
through the day but will be light. Based on forecast soundings,
the rain could trend more towards drizzle with a very deep cloud
layer. Accumulation wise will see very little 24-hr rainfall
totals ending at 4 PM Tuesday range from 0.05-0.2 inch with the
highest accumulation along the coast and Cascades. there is a
10% chance of nearly no accumulating rain, and a 10% chance of
0.15-0.2 inch in the valley, and 0.2-0.3 inch along the coast.
Snow levels will be high.
Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly benign with no
precipitation expected as high pressure builds once again. There
is good agreement in the ensembles regarding this pattern. The
next major weather shift comes on Friday into Saturday. At this
point models are not in agreement with nearly half showing heavy
rain and others showing very little. 24 hr rainfall totals on
Saturday afternoon will be around a quarter of an inch inland, a
half inch along the coast and slightly higher accumulation in
southwest Washington. If we want to dive into the higher end
amounts (90th percentile), there is quite the range. The NBM
90th percentile is showing the 24 hour accumulation ranging from
0.6 inch in the southern Willamette Valley to 0.75 in the
northern. Nearly an inch in Longview and 1.25 inch along the
south Washington coast. Ultimately the amount of rain will be
decided upon by where the incoming low and associated warm front
align. Will note that river forecasts are showing forecast
rises on many area rivers on Saturday. The thing to note, and
this has been the scenario almost all season, is that these
systems tend to see the low pressure systems filling and thus
become less intense. -27
&&
.AVIATION...A weak front dropping southward across the region
will bring enhanced cloud cover as well as increased chances for
rain showers and lowered cigs through 12-18z Sun. MVFR cigs are
favored along the coast (60-80% chance of cigs at 3 kft or less)
and in the central/southern Willamette Valley (50-75% chance) as
the boundary progresses southward through tonight, with additional
25-45% chances for IFR cigs during the frontal passage. VFR cigs
are more likely to continue at Portland-area terminals, with only
20-30% chances for MVFR cigs. Any rain showers associated with
the front are expected to remain light and may only briefly
restrict vis at area terminals. Conditions return to VFR by 18z
Sun, except for potentially persistent low stratus or fog in the
southern Willamette Valley Sunday morning.
Winds look to remain light and variable into tonight at sites
across the region, aside from stronger easterly flow to the west
of terrain gaps. KTTD will continue to see gusty east winds
through the Columbia Gorge, while other Portland-area terminals
see lighter east winds. More widespread offshore flow turning
northerly in the Willamette Valley is expected by 09-12z Sun.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions favored to prevail, however
chances for MVFR cigs increase from 00-09z Sat as a weak front
drops across the region. While cigs will most likely remain near 4
kft, there are 20-30% chances for MVFR cigs instead during much
of the overnight period. Any rain showers should remain light,
with brief vis restrictions possible but prolonged impacts
unlikely. East flow at less than 10 kt will continue through the
period at KPDX, while stronger flow of 15 kt gusting to 25 kt to
the east near KTTD will ease toward the end of the period. -36
&&
.MARINE...Benign weather continues across the waters as a weak
low drops south along the coast tonight. Winds will remain less
than 10 kt while onshore flow turns offshore again and seas hold
fairly steady at 4-8 ft. High pressure building offshore into
next week will then see winds hold at 5-10 kt out of the north to
northeast through Monday night. Another boundary crossing the
waters will see winds build to 15-20 kt out of the northwest while
a long-period swell will push seas toward 10 ft on Tuesday. Winds
and seas then ease midweek with another weather system potentially
arriving late in the week. -36
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A long-period westerly swell is expected along
the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts from
late Monday through Wednesday next week. Wave heights increasing
to 8 to 10 ft on Tuesday may not appear to present a safety risk
to those on area beaches, but these energetic waves will present a
moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, waves which can run
significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. In addition, a period of perigean spring or "king"
tides means these waves will have an even easier time reaching
high up onto beaches, limiting the areas which may be safe from
wave action.
A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued from 7 AM
Tuesday to 10 PM Wednesday. Sneaker waves can create potentially
life-threatening conditions in the surf zone when beachgoers can
be unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold
ocean waters. Caution should be used when in or near the water,
and those with children should be especially watchful. Never turn
your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep an eye on the waves.
Those participating in razor clam digs should additionally
exercise caution. -36
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 292247
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
247 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
.DISCUSSION...Much of the forecast area is covered by a deck of low
clouds this afternoon, with some patchy fog reported along the
foothills of the Blues, as northwesterly flow aloft pushes a cold
air mass into the PacNW. Riding this NW flow will be a shortwave
trough, which threatens to bring a round of snow to primarily the
Blue Mountains and foothills this evening and overnight. The region
will then fall under this cold NW pattern for much of the next week.
In tracking this upcoming shortwave, hi-res models seem to shift the
mid and upper-level winds more northerly behind the trough axis.
This has resulted in a shift of the snow forecast away from the
northern Blues and more toward the southern stretch of the
mountains. Should continue to note that this system remains moisture-
starved due to its continental polar origin, with NAM PWATs ranging
in the 0.3 to 0.5 range, so much of the dynamics driving the precip
in this system will be orographic. Even then, guidance generally
only depicts about an inch or two of snow accumulations along the
ridgetops of the southern Blues, with a hotspot around the
Strawberries. Still, such patterns do favor orographic snow along
the foothills of the Blues, would could potentially impact
Pendleton. But with the more northerly track of this system,
confidence has decreased a little on Pendleton receiving even a half
inch of snow. Such a scenario isn't inconceivable, but forecasting
message around this system generally leans toward a 'dusting' of
snow rather than anything particularly impactful.
Transitory ridging then moves in late Sunday into Monday, bringing
with it the potential for more low clouds and fog in the Basin. The
next system then looks to impact the forecast area late Monday into
Tuesday. Models thus far favor a more northwesterly trajectory for
this system, which would result in accumulating snowfall for the
northern Blues more so than the southern, but confidence is low
(30%) in this system resulting in any headlines, with only a couple
inches currently forecasted for Meacham, Tollgate, etc. Ensembles
suggest we'll remain locked in this NW flow pattern through at least
the end of next week, with intermittent precip chances materializing
as shortwaves embedded within the flow regime sweep through the
PacNW. 74
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...RDM/PSC are IFR due to low CIGs while BDN
is MVFR and PDT/ALW remain LIFR. This will persist over the next
forecast period. The clouds are fighting to lift with the only
sites expecting to see VFR is DLS, then BDN/RDM later in the
period. DLS/YKM are all VFR for now before DLS will see lowering
CIGs and VSBY as the snow showers move across the sites. PDT/ALW
will see a rain/snow mix around 03Z and lasting through 07Z while
PSC/DLS have a 30% probability of also seeing a rain/snow mix
during the same timeframe. The only site not plagued with FG/low
CIGs and low VSBY is YKM which will remain VFR through the period.
CIGs and VSBY will affect the remaining TAF sites through the
entirety of the period. Low confidence on the timing (30%) when
CIGs and VSBY will lift and then degrade will be the challenge
through the period. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 25 37 23 38 / 60 0 0 0
ALW 28 36 26 37 / 40 10 0 10
PSC 24 39 24 36 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 23 42 24 38 / 10 0 0 10
HRI 26 39 24 37 / 40 0 0 0
ELN 21 39 23 37 / 10 0 0 10
RDM 23 39 19 49 / 20 10 0 0
LGD 26 40 21 43 / 60 0 0 0
GCD 26 39 22 47 / 60 0 0 0
DLS 32 44 30 43 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...90
