or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 122138
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
238 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.DISCUSSION...Rain showers are moving across southern Oregon and
northern California this afternoon as a low pressure system
travels south along the Pacific coast. Activity will continue
through the day Monday. The highest forecast precipitation totals
are over coastal areas, where coastal terrain could get up to an
inch of rainfall while lower elevations could get between half and
three-quarters of an inch in this timeframe. West side valleys
could get up to half an inch of rainfall. Terrain in Siskiyou
County could also see up to an inch of precipitation. East side
basins could see up to one-quarter of an inch through Monday
evening.
A cold air mass moving with the low pressure system looks to lower
snow levels to 4500 feet along the Cascades, with 5000 to 5500 feet
snow levels east of the Cascades. Under these conditions, snow
showers are expected along the Cascades this evening through Monday
evening. 2 to 4 inches of snow possible over the highest parts of
highways 230 and 138 near Diamond Lake and 3 to 5 inches of
snowfall over parts of Highway 62 near Crater Lake. Parts of
Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna could also see 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall in this period. Peaks and ridgelines along the Cascades
could see up to 8 inches of snowfall, while terrain in Siskiyou
County and east of the Cascades could see 4 to 6 inches. Most of
the snowfall along the Cascades looks to be tonight into early
Monday morning. These amounts do not represent Advisory-levels
threats for this area over the 24-hour timeframe, and persisting
surface warmth will help to limit road accumulations. As this is
the first somewhat significant snowfall of the season, extra
caution is encouraged while traveling through elevated areas.
The low pressure system looks to reach central California before
moving to the northeast into the CONUS on Tuesday. Daytime highs
start to warm on Tuesday, but will remain below seasonal norms
until Friday or Saturday. Lingering cloud cover around the low
could help to keep overnight lows from dropping too far through
the middle of the week. Most east side areas look to stay at 32 to
35 degrees overnight, with parts of northern Lake and Klamath
counties possibly dropping into the high 20s. The Shasta Valley
may also see overnight lows reach freezing or just below freezing
through the week, depending on how cloud cover continues into the
night.
West side areas will see drier conditions for Tuesday and through
the week. Northern California counties as well as southern Lake and
Klamath Counties may see showers continue through Wednesday morning
depending on the path that the low takes. Precipitation amounts
would be low, with NBM probabilistic guidance having a 15-30% chance
of these areas getting one-tenth of an inch of rainfall from Tuesday
through Wednesday. Snow levels for these areas rise to 6000-6500
feet, limiting the chance of snow showers. All areas look to
remain dry from Wednesday through Saturday. Some guidance is
showing a front passing to the north bringing very light showers
to Coos and Douglas counties on Friday, but confidence in that
outcome is low at this moment.
Widespread rainfall could return next Sunday as an upper trough is
present in both the ECMWF and GFS models. The position and timing
vary slightly between the two models, making any more detailed
conditions difficult to forecast with high confidence. Given the
warm period before this trough, winter impacts do not look likely
if this outcome does develop. -TAD
&&
.AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...Low pressure will move southward along the
coast tonight through Monday. Some light rain and MVFR ceilings are
developing along the coast and NW portions of the forecast area now,
while areas farther inland to the south and east are VFR. Expect
ceilings to lower west of the Cascades this afternoon and,
especially tonight for most of the remainder of the region as the
low pushes southward. This low will bring widespread light rain and
snow in the mountains with areas of MVFR and higher terrain
obscurations. Local IFR ceilings and/or visibilities are possible in
heavier rain. Freezing levels will be pretty low for this time of
year, generally 4500-5500 feet. There is also about a 20-30% risk of
thunderstorms over the marine waters and along the immediate coast
later tonight into Monday. The main axis of precipitation will shift
southward into norCal Monday, but showers can persist into the
afternoon just about anywhere beneath cyclonic flow aloft. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, October 12, 2025...Steep
northwest swell will persist tonight. Low pressure will move in from
the north tonight and persist into Monday evening bringing
widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Seas will become
more chaotic Monday into Tuesday as stronger north winds generate
steep wind waves as well. This will maintain steep to very steep
seas, highest over the outer waters through Tuesday. Lighter winds
and lower seas should return on Wednesday. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for
PZZ370-376.
&&
$$
TAD/MAS
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 122117
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
217 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A cool and unsettled pattern continues across the
Pacific Northwest through Monday as a broad upper-level trough
move eastward over the region. Rain, mountain snow, and below-
normal temperatures will persist into early next week. A gradual
transition toward warmer and drier weather begins midweek as a
ridge builds overhead, though model guidance diverges toward the
end of the week regarding another potential low near the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday...Afternoon satellite
imagery shows a broad, upper level trough axis continuing to run
more or less parallel to the coast as the base of the trough
continues to slowly plunge southward towards the OR/CA border.
This setup will maintain cool and showery conditions across the
area through Monday. Radar currently shows scattered showers
continuing to shift eastward, with occasional heavier bursts
along the Cascade foothills. As the base of this trough moves
southward, colder 850 mb temperatures will also be introduced
to the Pac NW. This will result in snow levels falling towards
4000-5000 ft and as a result, will bring accumulating snow
across the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for elevations above 4000 ft through Monday morning, where
there is a 50-80% probability of 2 to 7 inches of wet snow for
the Cascade passes. Highway 26 near Government Camp carries a
similar probability for a trace to 3 inches of wet snow. At
elevations above 5000 ft, snow totals of 5 to 17 inches are
likely, with a 10-30% chance of exceeding 15 inches. Overall,
there remains a 50% chance of at least 12 inches of snow,
primarily for locations north of The Three Sisters and this
scenario could result in vehicles becoming stranded along
unmaintained roads.
Monday, the aforementioned trough/low is expected to start
making an easterly trek and as such will result in clearing
skies and cooler, overnight temperatures. Focusing on the Upper
Hood River Valley, receding cloud cover Monday night will allow
for strong radiational cooling. Probabilities for temperatures
at or below 32 degrees range between 50-90%. Probabilities for
temperatures of 28 degrees or colder range between 5-35%. These
probabilities are highest in the Parkdale area and lowest in
Odell. Therefore, will maintain the current Freeze Watch from 12
AM to 9 AM Tuesday for the Upper Hood River Valley, where
sensitive vegetation and unprotected plumbing could be affected.
Tuesday through Thursday, ensemble and deterministic models
continue to favor a broad ridge over the Pac NW. This will
bring a warming and drying trend, with daytime highs into the
mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, coast and Coastal Range.
As for the Cascades, expect daytime highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.
Thursday into the start of next weekend, forecast confidence
remains low as model solutions diverge. However, models are
starting to trend towards a cooler and wetter solution as models
bring a shortwave trough into the region, which could push
inland between Thursday and Friday. This scenario would result
in increasing cloud cover and a return of light rain. /42~12
&&
.AVIATION...Light to moderate rain showers continue across the
area along with a slight chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms for
most of the area through the afternoon with the threat shifting
to southwest to just the central Oregon coast and coast range this
evening. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected within the heaviest
showers. Conditions are expected to improve during the latter
half of Monday as the trough shifts south of the area and drier
air begins to filter in from the north. Winds expected to be
westerly today, shifting northwesterly this evening and even
gaining an offshore component Monday morning as the surface low
drops south of Lane county.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Light to moderate rain continue through the
afternoon, bringing brief drops to MVFR VIS/CIGs. Rain becomes
more scattered this evening. Slight chance (15-20%) for
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Conditions expected to
improve late Monday morning. Winds southwesterly, turning
southeasterly then northerly Monday morning as a surface low
crosses the area. /19
&&
.MARINE...A shortwave trough continues to pass over the region
with the axis of the trough east of the marine zones. Rain has
transitioned to scattered showers across the waters. Winds remain
westerly and have decreased to around 10 kt and gusts to around 15
kt. Wave heights peaked earlier this morning around 12-14 ft and
have slowly dropped back to between 8-10 ft at 10-11 seconds.
A weak area of low pressure developing over the Olympic peninsula
is expected to drop southward across the waters tonight into
early Monday. This will usher in a reinforcing shot of gusty north
to northeasterly winds during this period. Seas will remain
elevated as a result. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
to persist through 5 pm Monday. An offshore pressure gradient will
maintain northeasterly winds into Tuesday, shifting back to
onshore flow late Tuesday. Seas will drop to 5-6 ft at 8-9 seconds
late Monday.
There remains quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the weather
pattern next weekend, with an 80% chance that significant wave
heights will climb and end up somewhere between 10 and 19 ft by
next Saturday/Sunday. /19/12
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
ORZ121.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for ORZ126>128.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for WAZ211.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253-272-
273.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ271.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday
for PZZ271.
&&
$$
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FXUS66 KPQR 122135
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
235 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A cool and unsettled pattern continues across the
Pacific Northwest through Monday as a broad upper-level trough
move eastward over the region. Rain, mountain snow, and below-
normal temperatures will persist into early next week. A gradual
transition toward warmer and drier weather begins midweek as a
ridge builds overhead, though model guidance diverges toward the
end of the week regarding another potential low near the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday...Afternoon satellite
imagery shows a broad, upper level trough axis continuing to run
more or less parallel to the coast as the base of the trough
continues to slowly plunge southward towards the OR/CA border.
This setup will maintain cool and showery conditions across the
area through Monday. Radar currently shows scattered showers
continuing to shift eastward, with occasional heavier bursts
along the Cascade foothills. As the base of this trough moves
southward, colder 850 mb temperatures will also be introduced
to the Pac NW. This will result in snow levels falling towards
4000-5000 ft and as a result, will bring accumulating snow
across the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for elevations above 4000 ft through Monday morning, where
there is a 50-80% probability of 2 to 7 inches of wet snow for
the Cascade passes. Highway 26 near Government Camp carries a
similar probability for a trace to 3 inches of wet snow. At
elevations above 5000 ft, snow totals of 5 to 17 inches are
likely, with a 10-30% chance of exceeding 15 inches. Overall,
there remains a 50% chance of at least 12 inches of snow,
primarily for locations north of The Three Sisters and this
scenario could result in vehicles becoming stranded along
unmaintained roads.
Monday, the aforementioned trough/low is expected to start
making an easterly trek and as such will result in clearing
skies and cooler, overnight temperatures. Focusing on the Upper
Hood River Valley, receding cloud cover Monday night will allow
for strong radiational cooling. Probabilities for temperatures
at or below 32 degrees range between 50-90%. Probabilities for
temperatures of 28 degrees or colder range between 5-35%. These
probabilities are highest in the Parkdale area and lowest in
Odell. Therefore, will maintain the current Freeze Watch from 12
AM to 9 AM Tuesday for the Upper Hood River Valley, where
sensitive vegetation and unprotected plumbing could be affected.
Tuesday through Thursday, ensemble and deterministic models
continue to favor a broad ridge over the Pac NW. This will
bring a warming and drying trend, with daytime highs into the
mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, coast and Coastal Range.
As for the Cascades, expect daytime highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.
Thursday into the start of next weekend, forecast confidence
remains low as model solutions diverge. However, models are
starting to trend towards a cooler and wetter solution as models
bring a shortwave trough into the region, which could push
inland between Thursday and Friday. This scenario would result
in increasing cloud cover and a return of light rain. /42~12
&&
.AVIATION...Light to moderate rain showers continue across the
area along with a slight chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms for
most of the area through the afternoon with the threat shifting
to southwest to just the central Oregon coast and coast range this
evening. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected within the heaviest
showers. Conditions are expected to improve during the latter
half of Monday as the trough shifts south of the area and drier
air begins to filter in from the north. Winds expected to be
westerly today, shifting northwesterly this evening and even
gaining an offshore component Monday morning as the surface low
drops south of Lane county.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Light to moderate rain continue through the
afternoon, bringing brief drops to MVFR VIS/CIGs. Rain becomes
more scattered this evening. Slight chance (15-20%) for
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Conditions expected to
improve late Monday morning. Winds southwesterly, turning
southeasterly then northerly Monday morning as a surface low
crosses the area. /19
&&
.MARINE...A shortwave trough continues to pass over the region
with the axis of the trough east of the marine zones. Rain has
transitioned to scattered showers across the waters. Winds
remain westerly and have decreased to around 10 kt and gusts to
around 15 kt. Wave heights peaked earlier this morning around
12-14 ft and have slowly dropped back to between 8-10 ft at
10-11 seconds.
A weak area of low pressure developing over the Olympic peninsula
is expected to drop southward across the waters tonight into
early Monday. This will usher in a reinforcing shot of gusty north
to northeasterly winds during this period. Seas will remain
elevated as a result. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
to persist through 5 pm Monday. An offshore pressure gradient will
maintain northeasterly winds into Tuesday, shifting back to
onshore flow late Tuesday. Seas will drop to 5-6 ft at 8-9 seconds
late Monday.
There remains quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the weather
pattern next weekend, with an 80% chance that significant wave
heights will climb and end up somewhere between 10 and 19 ft by
next Saturday/Sunday. /19/12
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for ORZ121.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for ORZ126>128.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for WAZ211.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253-
271>273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 122348
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
448 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.UPDATED AVIATION.
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Rain showers are much more widespread in
the area than yesterday. Conditions remain mostly VFR in the near
term, with the exception of PDT experiencing IFR conditions
currently due to the passage of some heavier rain. Once this band
of rain pushes off to the east, conditions will improve soon
after. MVFR conditions with CIG and/or VIS impacts is expected at
most sites over the next 24-hours as the weather system continues
to bring some heavy rain at some sites along with cooler overnight
temperatures expected. Winds will remain less than 12 knots,
with the exception of gusts up to 25 knots expected at YKM/PSC
from tomorrow morning through the rest of the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025/
DISCUSSION...
Broader forcing for lift becomes realized this evening and
maximized through the overnight period as the upper trough pivots
south along the NW Pac coastline, creating weak moist advection
this evening followed by CAA and an upper axis of deformation
into Monday morning. HREF 24 hr QPF indicates broad areas of one
tenth to one quarter inch of wetting rains across the more
elevated areas east of the Cascades and over the Columbia
Plateau, and under one tenth (wetting) in most of the more low
lying basin regions, as well as several inches of snow in the
highest elevation like Newberry/Paulina Peak, Three Sisters and
the Eagle Caps. As for the large fires in Washington, the HRRR
valid for 12z Monday would bring about one quarter of an inch
(QPF) across the Wildcat perimeter and about a half an inch
across the Labor Mountain fire (mostly in the p-type of snow). The
lower elevation Snoqualmie Pass may be less impacted than snow of
the higher elevation passes. For the overnight widespread cloud
cover, and minor upward adjustment on overnight lows by hedging
toward the higher NBM minimum T members. Both Washington and
Oregon eastern upper slopes forecast zones continue to have a
winter weather advisory for snow for Tonight and about the first
half of Monday.
Late Monday should bring clearing from the NW to the SE as the
upper low meanders into Nevada. That clearing and trending light
winds will create the coldest air of the season locally and
should result in a killing freezing for the Kittitas valley by
Tuesday morning. Temperatures recover by mid week into the 60s
over most of the lower elevation areas, a trend that seemingly
maxes out by Saturday before the next organized precipitation
maker arrives. That next period of precipitation is being flagged
by the NBM ensembles, centered around next Saturday and Sunday.
At this point, low confidence exists as models can significantly
change, however currently the members are pointing to another
round of mountain snows (up to 80% chances). This appears to be a
heavily rain shadowed episode as well, given that max percentages
for rain in excess of one tenth of an inch is only up to 20
percent in the Interior Northwest. Russell/71
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 41 58 34 55 / 90 50 10 10
ALW 44 60 37 55 / 90 40 10 20
PSC 42 61 36 59 / 80 50 0 10
YKM 39 54 35 60 / 90 80 0 0
HRI 42 60 36 58 / 80 50 0 10
ELN 33 53 29 59 / 90 80 0 0
RDM 30 49 26 51 / 80 60 20 10
LGD 38 55 35 56 / 80 50 20 30
GCD 39 54 34 57 / 90 60 20 30
DLS 44 56 40 62 / 90 60 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PDT Monday for ORZ509.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PDT Monday for WAZ522.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
WAZ026.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...95
