or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 300531
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
931 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section...
&&
.AVIATION...30/00z TAFs...The coast is under MVFR ceilings along the
coast near North Bend, and these will remain tonight. Fog and
patches of dense fog are present in parts of the Rogue Valley.
MVFR/IFR ceilings remain in the Umpqua Basin tonight. Areas of
IFR/LIFR valley fog are expected to form again tonight and stay
through Sunday morning. Isolated showers are also possible, highest
probability from the coast to interior Douglas County (including
Roseburg), in the mountains and across the north from late this
evening into early Sunday morning.
-Spilde/-9
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 853 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/
DISCUSSION...Roseburg and areas near Grants Pass were never able
to break out of the low clouds and fog today, and it is going to
stick around tonight. Fog will develop in more west side valleys
tonight, including at Medford. A chance of showers comes tonight
near the coast, in Douglas County, northern Klamath County, and
eastern Lake County. These showers will pass through overnight,
mainly before 7 AM, and they are forecast to bring less than a
tenth of an inch of rain. Elevations above 5,000 feet will see
cooler conditions Sunday afternoon, although temperatures will be
near normal overall. The fog and low clouds are forecast to lift
later tomorrow morning. -9
MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Saturday, November 29, 2025...
Northerly winds increase slightly this evening into tomorrow
morning. Speeds further increase and eventually reach small craft
conditions south of Port Orford tomorrow evening through Monday
afternoon. North winds are expected to once again further strengthen
on Tuesday with advisory conditions likely across southern waters.
An incoming long period swell is expected to peak at 7 to 11 ft at
16 to 19 seconds Monday into Tuesday. Overall, seas will remain
hazardous through middle parts of next week.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/
DISCUSSION...Not a lot has changed in the expected weather
pattern heading into the first week of December. The next several
days will be largely dominated by dry weather with a strong semi-
permanent upper ridge parked out along 140W. This pattern will
allow a couple of "inside-slider" type systems, one tonight into
Sunday and another Monday night through Tuesday night, to come
over the top of the ridge and into the PacNW. But, these systems
will have little moisture available for precipitation and will
only produce isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Focus areas
for any showers will be from the coast to the Cascades and over to
the Warner Mtns. A dusting of snow is possible over the higher
terrain with either of these disturbances, but measurable rain
amounts at lower elevations won't be much more than a few
hundredths here or there. Nighttime/morning fog/low clouds can
also be expected during this period, with the most extensive
coverage Sunday night into Monday morning between systems. The
weak disturbance Monday night into Tuesday night could cause an
uptick in afternoon N-NW breezes Tuesday afternoon, especially
over the higher terrain and east side.
Mid-late next week, a strong upper high sets up near 40N and 140W
Wednesday, weakening as it wobbles east-southeastward into next
weekend. The strength of the ridge will shape our weather, but
there's disagreement on how fast or even if this ridge will break
down completely. Right now, the upper ridge should keep us dry
Wed/Thu with models keeping the northern branch of the jet
directed mostly into BC. Snow levels also rise to above 8000 feet
during this time, so temps should average above normal. With some
weakening of the ridge, the possibility remains that systems
eventually come over the top again and into the PacNW at some
point Friday into next weekend. The official forecast, which is a
blend of the 100 member ensemble, brings increasing PoPs (20-40%
chance) to the coast and northern Douglas County Friday, then
increasing to 40-60% Friday night into Saturday. Precip chances
farther south and east though remain generally less 15%, so NorCal
locations probably remain dry.
Beyond that, most ensemble members maintain the status quo
(drier, milder) with some version of the ridge remaining offshore
and the main axis of the jet directed to our north. Some GEFS
members (including the 12z deterministic run) break the ridge down
and bring the jet farther south with a cooler, wetter solution.
These solutions are currently in the minority. As it stands, odds
currently favor the drier, milder solutions and CPC 6-10 day
forecasts (Dec 5-9) reflect this with a high likelihood (50-60%)
of above normal temperatures and odds leaning toward near to below
normal precip for southern Oregon/northern California.
-Spilde
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November
29, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first
arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday
morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is
anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can
occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. A Beach
Hazards Statement remains in effect to highlight this risk for
Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18
seconds Monday afternoon and evening, so while seas will be steep,
high surf conditions are not expected at beaches. If you have plans
to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be
aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to
the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly
farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and
jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep
them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn
your back on the ocean!
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for ORZ021-022.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4
PM PST Monday for PZZ376.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 301108
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
307 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues over the region today with
mostly dry conditions expected through Monday. Chilly temperatures
expected Monday morning. A weak front will bring chances for light
rain Monday night into Tuesday. Dry again on Wednesday. Active
weather returns as a series of frontal systems bring increasing
chances for rain later Thursday into Saturday. Seasonable
temperatures continue through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Dry weather expected
this Sunday as high pressure builds over the region. Cloudy skies
this morning expected to clear from north to south this afternoon,
becoming mostly sunny with seasonably cool temperatures. Mostly
clear skies tonight into early Monday, along with light winds, will
allow for radiational cooling overnight. Expect a chilly Monday
morning with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower
30s through much of the inland valleys, while the outer rural areas
have the higher probabilities of below freezing temperatures. Light
offshore flow in the Portland Metro and along the coast will likely
maintain slightly warmer temperatures, with lows in the mid to upper
30s. Dry conditions continue Monday, though as the upper ridge
shifts east, clouds fill in Monday afternoon as a shortwave trough
approaches the region. A weak frontal system moves over the area
Monday night into Tuesday bringing another round of light
precipitation. But, rainfall amounts again have been trending lower
with a few hundredths of an inch, up to a tenth of an inch, likely.
Highest accumulations expected along the northern coast and higher
terrain. No impactful weather expected. /DH
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Models and their ensembles
remain in good agreement that an upper level ridge rebuilds over the
eastern Pacific on Wednesday. This will maintain dry conditions
through at least Wednesday night. Then, precipitation chances
increase late Thursday through Saturday as ensemble clusters are
indicating high chances of the ridge flattening out, allowing for
northerly weather systems to push into the Pacific NW. While this
pattern change to more wet weather appears likely, there is fairly
high confidence that rainfall amounts are not expected to be too
impactful. Snow levels are also expected to start out relatively
high around 6,000-7,000 ft before gradually falling to around 5000
ft later Saturday. Concerns for snow at pass levels remains low. /DH
&&
.AVIATION...Northerly flow aloft as an upper level ridge of high
pressure gradually builds over the region today. As of 09z Sunday,
satellite and surface observations depict overcast skies across NW
Oregon and much of SW Washington. The layer of stratus currently
reporting CIGs of around 2500-3500 ft with a mix of MVFR and low
end VFR conditions expected to continue through 17-19z this
morning. CIGs then lift with clearing skies from north to south
this afternoon, resulting in predominately VFR conditions. Expect
these conditions to persist through at least 06z Monday. Winds
remain relatively light, except at KTTD where easterly winds will
continue around 10-13 kt and at KPDX where east to east-southeast
winds around 5-7 kt continue.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected
through the period. Although, there remains a 20-30% chance for
MVFR CIGs around FL025 through 16z Sunday. Mainly scattered high
clouds expected by this afternoon. East to southeast winds around
5-7 kt expected. /02
&&
.MARINE...Benign weather continues across the coastal waters as
weak low pressure dissipates near the coast today. Light offshore
flow turns northerly as high pressure builds offshore later today
through Monday. Winds remain 15 kt or less while seas hold fairly
steady around 4 to 8 ft. A weak front will push across the waters
late Monday night into Tuesday bringing northwest winds of around
15-20 kt, while a long period westerly swell will build seas
toward 10 ft on Tuesday. Winds and seas then ease midweek with
another weather system potentially arriving late in the week.
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A long-period westerly swell is expected along
the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts from
late Monday through Wednesday next week. Wave heights increasing
to 8 to 10 ft on Tuesday may not appear to present a safety risk
to those on area beaches, but these energetic waves will present a
moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, waves which can run
significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. In addition, a period of perigean spring or "king"
tides means these waves will have an even easier time reaching
high up onto beaches, limiting the areas which may be safe from
wave action.
A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued from 7 AM
Tuesday to 10 PM Wednesday. Sneaker waves can create potentially
life-threatening conditions in the surf zone when beachgoers can
be unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold
ocean waters. Caution should be used when in or near the water,
and those with children should be especially watchful. Never turn
your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep an eye on the waves.
Those participating in razor clam digs should additionally
exercise caution. -36
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/portland
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
x.com/NWSPortland
Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 301123
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
323 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.DISCUSSION...Snow is tapering off over the Blue Mountains as the
upper-level low that induced light snow across much of central to
eastern Oregon and southeast Washington exits to the southeast.
In its wake, confidence is high (90 percent) that widespread low
stratus accompanied by at least patchy dense fog will continue
through this morning. Dry conditions are then anticipated into
Monday afternoon as upper-level ridging noses into the Pacific
Northwest. This will likely (70 percent confidence) result in
another round of stratus and fog for basin areas tonight through
Monday morning.
Looking ahead, another shortwave embedded within northwesterly
flow aloft is advertised for late Monday through Tuesday night.
Snow chances are reduced across the Columbia Basin and Blue
Mountain foothills (10-30 percent chance of measurable snow per
NBM guidance) compared to the one that brought low-elevation
snowfall to the Blue Mountain foothills yesterday evening into
early this morning, but a better moisture tap should facilitate
slightly better chances (15-30 percent) of advisory-level snow
for the Blue Mountains. Ensemble guidance is now also suggesting
some locally breezy westerly winds through the Cascades gaps on
Tuesday.
By the end of the week, ensemble solutions begin to diverge with
regard to pattern details, specifically whether upper-level
ridging will persist on Friday (~60 percent of members) or a more
zonal pattern (~40 percent of members) will begin. By Saturday, a
transition to a more zonal upper-level pattern is present among
all ensemble clusters. As far as tangible weather, this would
result in warmer, wetter, breezier conditions. Of note, EFI
values ranging from 0.5-0.8 across the Columbia Plateau are
pointing to decent ensemble agreement in windy conditions relative
to model climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...previous discussion...Ceilings will remain
in the LIFR and IFR categories for many of the terminals overnight
as the area recovers from as weak upper trough overspreading a
cold surface airmass. DLS and YKM will be MVFR or better. Farther
eastward PDT and AlW had lingering -SN and limited visibility to
around 1 mile as a result. This will continue for a few more
hours. PSC was a little warmer resulting in the rain precipitation
type. To the west, BDN and RDM have LAV forecasts that maintain
the stratus overnight with little hope of any improvement until
around 12z and afterward. Russell/71
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 22 39 29 / 0 0 0 40
ALW 36 25 37 31 / 0 0 10 50
PSC 39 24 37 27 / 0 0 0 30
YKM 41 24 38 26 / 0 0 0 20
HRI 38 25 37 29 / 0 0 0 30
ELN 39 22 37 26 / 0 10 10 20
RDM 40 19 49 27 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 39 21 42 31 / 0 0 0 40
GCD 38 21 46 31 / 0 0 0 30
DLS 44 30 42 35 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...71
