or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 051508
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
708 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
.DISCUSSION...A cold front will be the main event of the week,
moving to the Cascades early this morning and continuing across
the east side through the afternoon. A substantial moisture plume
and very tight pressure gradients will produce strong winds and
heavy precipitation over nearly all of southern Oregon and far
northern California. With surface pressure gradients ranging
roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with model 700mb
winds approaching 80 kt, all of southern Oregon and far northern
California will see at least gusty winds, with strong winds along
the coast, in the Shasta Valley, over the mountains, and across
the East Side. The negative tilt in the upper level trough also
suggests that that stronger winds could impact portions of the
West Side as well, including the I-5 corridor from Ashland to
Medford, and in some of the other roughly south/north oriented
valleys. Numerous wind headlines remain in effect, covering most
of the region. More information and detail on these can be found
at PDXNPWMFR.
Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured
by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are expected to reach
values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500).
This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather
classic "Pineapple Express," as the moisture plume originates
from the tropics near Hawaii. A substantial amount of rain is
possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in
Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some
locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the
East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping
winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is
not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type
flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to
recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov
5-7 (today through Friday) which could bring additional impacts
to the coast as this storm and the following system enters the
region, especially with heavy rains putting additional water into
area rivers and estuaries.
With the strong dynamics of the system, we could easily see some
isolated thunderstorms along and west of the Cascades today as
the upper level trough axis passes overhead. While the storms
themselves aren't expected to be strong, they could transport
strong winds from higher in the atmosphere down to the surface,
and some small hail is possible due to the colder air aloft.
Snow levels will remain high through this storm and through the
rest of the week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not
expecting any impactful winter weather.
Another robust front arrives Thursday, although it looks weaker
than the previous one, and models have trended even weaker over
the last several runs. Most model guidance suites are showing
another round of gusty winds and rain, but not to the extent of
tonight's event. This storm, however, will coincide with the
highest King Tides around noon on Thursday. Ocean level models are
depicting a small storm surge with the event, along with high
surf conditions which will push water into local bays and
estuaries, which will make tidal influences even stronger. Some
localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying
areas and roads around Coos Bay and any roads or low lying
beaches and shorelines, and erosion along area beaches will be a
concern. High Surf Advisories and a Coastal Flood Watch are in
effect, with details and more information at PDXCFWMFR.
Conditions gradually improve through Friday, then an upper level
ridge builds in overhead Saturday into Sunday. This will dry
things out for the weekend into early next week. The forecast
keeps some slight chances in place for the coast, but the outlook
continues to favor a decreasing of the risk of rain...with
stronger ridging ahead of a slower moving trough far offshore.
-BPN/DW
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs...A strong cold front is roughly near
the Coast Range early this morning and will continue gradually
moving inland today, while the trailing surface trough follows to
the coast later this morning and inland through this evening.
As such, southerly winds will be strongest this morning, but
remaining strong into the afternoon and maintaining strength longest
east of the Cascades. Peak wind gusts along the coast will be 40-
60kt. Local gusts at the headlands could reach 70kt. Gusts of 35-
50kt will likely be observed over some inland valleys aligned with
the S-SE flow (Shasta, Scott, portions of the Rogue) as well as over
the East Side. Even Roseburg could get gusts to 25kt. Winds will
gradually trend lower this afternoon into the evening as the front
shifts eastward. Smaller aircraft should be secured or brought
inside hangars, especially where gusts exceed 40kt. Flying
conditions will become difficult, with the expected strong winds,
ceilings lowering to MVFR, and the potential for low-level wind
shear (LLWS). LLWS is most likely at North Bend through this
afternoon, and also at Roseburg early this morning.
To start today, moderate to heavy rain is producing a mix of
IFR/MVFR and mountain obscuration, with areas of VFR ceilings
accompanying lighter precipitation both farther ahead (on the east
side) and behind (at the coast) the front. Conditions will be
variable today and tonight, reflecting the highly active pattern and
multiple frontal passages. There is also a slight chance for
thunderstorms to develop today into the early evening, especially
along the coast and into western Douglas County.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, November 5, 2025...A
storm warning remains in effect early this morning with a Gale
Warning immediately following today, and a Hazardous Seas Warning
Tonight into Thursday morning. Additionally, isolated to scattered
marine thunderstorms are expected into this evening, especially
this afternoon north of Cape Blanco.
Southerly winds ease tonight into Thursday morning, but very steep
and hazardous long-period west swell will persist. Advisory level
high surf is forecast, with current guidance building 20-26 ft surf
heights, reaching peak heights during Thursday morning. King Tides
are expected on Thursday, which may increase the impact of hazardous
conditions. Bar crossings will be especially dangerous and fishing
infrastructure may be vulnerable.
Another front is likely to bring additional gales and very high seas
late Thursday morning into Thursday evening. High pressure brings
improving weather Friday into the weekend. But, lingering swell is
likely to support high, steep to very steep and hazardous seas into
Saturday morning. Active weather is most likely to return late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.
-DW/Spilde
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, November
5, 2025...Today, storm force winds will build very steep seas to
high surf advisory criteria (20-26 feet). Some south-facing beaches
may experience high surf and bar crossing could be very dangerous.
South-facing ports like Port Orford/Brookings, could have water
spill over onto parking lots. This will then be followed by a long
period swell tonight into Thursday, reaching a peak during Thursday
morning, and impacting all west-facing beaches/ports. With King
Tides on Thursday, this may increase the impact of hazardous
conditions. Area beaches will become hazardous due to dangerous surf
conditions, bar crossings will be especially dangerous and fishing
infrastructure may be vulnerable. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022-
027>031.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for ORZ021-022.
Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening
for ORZ021.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for ORZ023>026.
CA...High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for CAZ081-084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Storm Warning until 7 AM PST this morning
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 051345
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
545 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Strong low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will
send impactful fronts toward the region through Thursday.
Expect widespread rain and gusty winds with each frontal
passage. There is around a 20-35% chance of thunderstorms on
Wednesday, highest at the coast. A few thunderstorms may be
marginally severe with the main threat being strong winds and
possibly waterspouts or weak tornados. In addition, minor tidal
overflow flooding is expected along portions of Highway 101 and
Fraser Road in Tillamook County around high tide on Wednesday
and Thursday from 10 AM to 3 PM PST. Conditions likely trend
drier late Friday into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday night...Light rain continues across the region as a strong low pressure
system supported by an upper level trough impacts the PacNW.
The trough is expected to become negatively tilted, turning the mid-
level flow more southwesterly. A cold front associated with the
aforementioned low will move through the region later this
morning. Snow level are only expected to fall to around
5000-6000 ft, so not anticipating any snow at pass levels.
However, a good bout of rain is expected with this system. IVT
values along the coast are expected to peak around 750 kg/m/s
and remain above 500 kg/m/s for close to 24 hours leading to a
moderate AR. IVT values inland around the foothills will be
lower, peaking short of 500 kg/m/s but staying above 250 kg/m/s
for 24-30 hours. Expect another 1.0-1.5 inches of rain along
the coast and Coast range through tonight, another 0.5- 1.0
across the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2.5 inches along the
Cascades and Cascade Foothills with locally higher amounts on
the peaks.
The offshore pressure gradient between The Dalles and Troutdale will
continue to support easterly wind gusts around 30-40 mph through
Wednesday morning. Winds turn to the south areawide as the cold
front passes through the area. Gusty winds will continue with
this system as winds turn to the southwest. There is a 15-30%
chance for wind gusts to reach 45 mph (Wind Advisory criteria)
from Salem southward in the Willamette Valley and a 10-20%
chance wind gusts along the coast reach 58 mph (High Wind
Warning criteria, no advisories for coastal areas). Most likely
will see wind gusts around 30-40 mph inland and 45-50 mph at the
coast, with gusts up to 55 mph along beaches and headlands.
This would be strong enough to result in some tree damage and
power outages, but would not be strong enough for widespread
downed trees and significant impacts.
With the cold front passing through the region this morning and
the upper level trough tilting negatively, an unstable
atmosphere will be in place come the afternoon and evening hours
leading to a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms. The environment
will be supportive of low- topped convection with the highest
probabilities along the coast through the threat extends
areawide. Guidance suggests "skinny" surface based CAPE peaking
around 250-500 J/kg in the afternoon and strong wind shear as
850 mb southwesterly winds persist at around 50 kt and 0-3 km
SRH increases to around 150-250 m2/s2. SPC has maintained the
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms wast of the Cascades
for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Given the decent
SRH, storms may rotate and support weak waterspouts or tornados
if they come onshore with a 2-4% probability mainly along the
coast and extending into the western Willamette Valley. The
threat for wind is is 5-14% for areas west of the Cascade crest
with a similar threat for 1 inch or greater hail. /19
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The next system is expected
to move into the region on Thursday, bringing another round of
rain and gusty winds. Wind speeds with this front look to be
fairly similar to Wednesday, though probabilities for stronger
wind gusts have increased slightly, but a shorter duration of
these stronger winds is expected as the front moves through.
This frontal system is also on track to produce lower rainfall
amounts. WPC QPF amounts from 4am Thursday through 4am Friday
range between 0.75-1.0 inches for inland valleys, 1.0-2.0 inches
for the coast and Cascade foothills, and 2-3 inches for the
Coast Range and south WA/north OR Cascades. Given all the rain
that is forecast to fall prior to the system on Thursday, rising
river levels will be a concern. The main question that remains
is whether or not enough rain will fall for some rivers to reach
flood stage on Wednesday and/or Thursday. According to the
latest HEFS guidance, the probability for any given river to
reach minor flood stage is generally 10% or less, except a 15%
chance for the Wilson River near Tillamook. Another river of
concern would be the Grays River near Rosburg. Small creeks and
streams are more likely to see some minor flooding. Lastly,
minor urban flooding will also be possible, especially in low-
lying areas with poor drainage.
Rain chances remain in the forecast Friday, however ensemble
guidance suggests rain amounts will be lighter and less impactful.
WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows good agreement for an upper level
ridge axis too be positioned along the west coast and into the PacNW
which would support dry conditions. Cluster and ensemble
analysis have trended drier Sunday into early next week.
Clusters depict the ridge remaining most the most influential
feature over the region into Tuesday. Expecting NBM trends to
catch up with this drier solution. Ensembles from the Euro and
GFS only show about 1/3 of members bringing light precipitation
to the region Monday and Tuesday. Will continued monitor this
trend. /19
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions across the region with light rain
continuing to stream in along southerly flow. Models suggest
wind speeds between 1000-2000 ft AGL are around 40-50 kt.
Therefore, have included mention of LLWS into some of the
forecasts. Areas where this will be most prevalent will be in
the northern Willamette Valley where surface winds are northerly
and winds aloft will be southwesterly with the front. Expect
light to moderate rain to increase this morning as the cold
front moves through, turning more showery behind the cold front
this afternoon. Winds will increase from the south with the
passage of the front with gusts to 25-35 kt along the coast and
20-30 kt inland. CIGs expected to remain largely VFR but
scattered MVFR CIGs are possible with a 20-60% probability
behind the front, due to the more convective nature of the
precipitation.
Thunderstorms are also possible after 16-18z Wednesday with best
chances for locations west of the Cascades. Thunderstorms could
cause erratic and gusty winds up to 45-50 kts, small hail, heavy
rain, and possibly funnel clouds or waterspouts. Periods of heavy
rain could cause rapid reduction of visibility to IFR/LIFR
conditions. The limiting factor will be whether or not we
experience enough clearing during the day.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Rain with generally VFR conditions. Gusty
easterly winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Aloft, southwest winds up
to 55 kt possible thus leading to potential for LLWS up to 2000
ft. LLWS may maintain through the forecast period however will
likely rise above 2000 ft thus has been phased out later in the
TAF. Chance for thunderstorms after 20Z Wed. Can't rule out small
hail, gusty outflow winds, building cumulus, and even some funnel
clouds. Will note that there is low confidence in regards to MVFR
CIGs developing due to more persistent easterly winds through the
morning hours. -19/27
&&
.MARINE...Winds are beginning to build over the waters with
observations showing gusts up to 35 kt at 46089 and 35 to 40 kt
at coastal buoys. These winds will continue to build as the
warm front shifts over the waters. Strong southerly flow with
convergence along the coast will develop a weak coastal jet.
Gale force winds expected with less than a 30% chance of Storm
Force Winds. If storms do form they would likely be in PZZ273.
Seas will gradually increase with wave heights in the teens.
Winds will gradually ease tonight and thus the Gale Warning will
likely end. However, seas will remain elevated all zones will
transition into a Hazardous Seas Warning. The outer waters
transition at 7 pm while the inner waters and Columbia River Bar
hold onto Gale force winds until around 10 pm.
Another system is set to bring another round of Gales to all
waters by Thursday morning. There is a 5% chance of combined
seas of 21 ft or greater. -19/27
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...There is a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor
tidal overflow flooding during high tide from 10 AM to 3 PM
Wednesday and 10 AM to 3 PM Thursday for the Pacific County
Coast, Clatsop County Coast, and Tillamook County Coast. Minor
flooding during high tide is expected in the low lying areas
near bays, sloughs, and the lower reaches of the coastal rivers.
This is due to total tide up to 12 feet at Toke point resulting
in tide up to one foot above ground level, total tide up to 11
feet at Tongue Point resulting in tide up to one foot above
ground level, and total tide up to 11 feet at Garibaldi
resulting in tide up to one foot above ground level.
Expect flooding along portions of Highway 101, including near
Raymond, Seaside, and Fraser Road in Tillamook County. Coastal
residents in the warned area should be alert for rising water and
take appropriate action to protect life and property. Remain out
of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Minor
tidal overflow is possible again on Friday as active weather
coincides with the King Tides.
Additionally, there is a High Surf Advisory for large waves and
hazardous surf conditions from 4 AM to 7 PM on Thursday due to a
strong westerly swell. Destructive waves may wash over beaches,
jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. People can be swept
off rocks and jetties and drown while observing high surf. Minor
beach erosion may damage coastal properties and buildings. Higher
than normal water run-up is expected on beaches and low-lying
shoreline. Remain away from the shoreline to avoid these conditions.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this
afternoon for ORZ101-102.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for
ORZ101-102.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for ORZ101>103.
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this
afternoon for WAZ201.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for
WAZ201.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for WAZ201.
PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-251>253.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST
Thursday for PZZ210-251>253.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST
Thursday for PZZ271>273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 051400
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
600 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
.UPDATE...
Fog advisories extended until 8 AM. Visibilities staggered in
Pendleton and places near Mission/Cabbage Hill. In Central Oregon,
visibilities have improved in Bend rising up to 5 miles in the
last couple of obs, but still remain fairly concealed to around a
half mile or less in Redmond and Madras.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025/
AVIATION...12Z TAFs...All sites will be affected by the incoming
system and experience rain showers and or fog/mist through the
period. Sub-VFR conditions are currently across all sites except YKM
and PSC. However, a Prob30 for 1/2SM -RA BR has been put in for YKM
between 15-17Z. CIGs will also flux between LIFR and VFR a this
system continues across the region. A surface front will also
accompany the system bringing sustained winds between 15-20 with
gusts near 25 kts at sites PDT (20Z), RDM/BDN (16Z), ALW/PSC (06Z).
90
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025/
.DISCUSSION...Observations have shown in the last couple of hours
visibilities <= 1/4 mile for parts of
Bend/Redmond/Pendleton/Mission. Went ahead and issued a fog
advisory for Central Oregon and the Foothills of the Blue
Mountains in Oregon. Not expecting fog too last long in the
morning so went ahead and issued the advisory until 4 AM when
winds will get a little stronger to hopefully mix the surface and
lift the fog out of the area. If fog still persist closer to 4 AM,
I might extend it for a few more hours later into the morning. For
now, warm front has lifted and commences spotty showers across the
parts of the Basin with the more widespread/heavy rain associated
with the atmospheric river is situated near the Cascades and
Gorge areas. Rain will continue to push through the area,
delivering some precipitation throughout the region through
Wednesday. As the system with the associated cold front passes
through Wednesday, snow levels will rise 6000 to 8000 feet,
leaving this a primarily rain event except for very high
peaks/crests in the Cascades and Wallowa's.
With the approaching cold front passing through the region, breezy
to windy conditions will develop across Central Oregon through the
Blue Mountains & Foothills late Wednesday morning into Thursday
with gusts up to 40 mph in some locations. The environment will
remain showery with some development of thunderstorms across
portions of the Columbia Basin through the Blue/Wallowa Mountains
as instability increases coupled with CAM paintballs showing >40
reflectivity in locations Wednesday afternoon through the evening
hours. Not expecting widespread severe activity as the SPC has us
in a general thunderstorm outlook but also daytime heating seems a
bit limited with the shorter days and lack of adequate cloud
breaking prior to storm development.
A break in the active weather will be felt with dry conditions
going through the weekend, as a ridge develops and amplify's
shortly before pushing ashore sometime Saturday morning/afternoon
hours. Precip chances drop to 0 for the most of the region going
through the weekend, but may prove short-lived for before another
shortwave makes its way in the beginning of next work week and
develop showers across the region on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 44 63 42 / 70 60 40 100
ALW 60 47 62 45 / 80 80 60 100
PSC 57 43 63 42 / 80 30 30 90
YKM 54 37 58 37 / 100 60 70 90
HRI 59 44 63 43 / 70 40 40 90
ELN 50 34 52 33 / 100 70 70 100
RDM 59 36 58 34 / 80 60 50 90
LGD 59 40 57 40 / 90 70 60 100
GCD 60 41 57 41 / 90 60 40 100
DLS 58 45 60 45 / 100 90 90 100
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for ORZ507-511.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...90
