or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 101726
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
926 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
...New Aviation Section...
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
Morning low clouds/fog expected to produce IFR/LIFR conditions
for the terminals with the only exception at KRBG which is in VFR.
Expecting clearing later today with VFR conditions for all
terminals by this afternoon and continuing through early this
evening. Radiational cooling and clearing skies will likely lead
to IFR/LIFR conditions for low clouds/fog overnight for inland
terminals. However, KOTH is only expected reach MVFR overnight.
-Guerrero
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025/
DISCUSSION...Totals for December 9th show that northwestern
Douglas County received around 1"-1.5" and areas near Crater Lake
saw about 0.25". Northern Coos County had a report of almost
0.50". Radar and observations show light rain at the coast. There
has been enough clearing from the heavier cloud cover that low
ceilings are found in west side valleys and low ceilings and
visibility for areas east near Klamath Falls.
Through Thursday morning parts of the coast, Douglas County and
the Cascades are forecast to receive less than a quarter of an
inch on average as the system is still bringing the main impacts
to Portland and Seattle.
The next step in the forecast is for the high pressure that's off
the coast of California to build, and this will bring a slight warm
up to the area for the rest of the work week! Temperatures will on
average be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal west of the Cascades and
15-20 degrees above normal for east side, equating to mid-/upper 50s
and low 60s for both areas. We're also expecting to see more sun,
especially into Thursday and Friday. Although the clearer skies
ahead will help us warm in the afternoons, it will make the mornings
colder. Friday and Saturday mornings are looking to be the coldest
in the forecast period with low/mid-40s near the coast and into the
Umpqua Basin. East side will have more mid-20s.
After the remaining showers at the coast, another chance of rain
comes Sunday morning with light showers. Our next front that looks
promising for more rainfall in Southern Oregon and Northern
California will arrive Monday. The EC is still favoring a faster
track, but overall Monday is the day that we can look for more
precipitation. Snow levels will start at 8,000'-8,500' Monday and
fall to 6,000'-7,000' Tuesday afternoon. This system is currently
forecast to bring heavier rain into Curry County, with west side
valleys seeing more rain than this past system as well. -9
AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs...Low ceilings and periodic rain showers are
keeping coastal areas, including North Bend, at IFR/LIFR levels
tonight. Other areas remain dry, but some areas (the Rogue and
Illinois valleys including Medford and Klamath Falls) are seeing IFR
to LIFR conditions.
Ceilings lift and skies look to clear for inland areas through the
day today, while ceilings will linger over coastal areas and into
Douglas County. These persisting ceilings look to hover near
VFR/MVFR thresholds. Clearer skies tonight bring a chance for
IFR/LIFR conditions tonight, and these details have been added to
the TAF. -TAD/-9
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, December 10, 2025...Winds
subside tonight, but west swell persists north of Cape Blanco today
with small craft conditions through Thursday morning. Conditions
improve for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds over
the region. Expecting showers over the waters through mid-week as
well which could further reduce visibilities (fog/low clouds
expected as well) over the next couple days.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST
Thursday for PZZ350-370.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 101826
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
1026 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An atmospheric river remains draped across the Pacific
Northwest, of which has shifted more north, offering some relief
to northwest Oregon and continued impacts for southwest
Washington. Today will have continued periods of rain, breezy
winds, and notable hydrologic concerns, primarily in elevated
terrain in southwest Washington and the northern portion of
northwest Oregon. Although the moisture plume is beginning a
gradual decline in strength, runoff from recent heavy rainfall
will keep rivers elevated through the day. Winds remain locally
gusty, especially across higher terrain, where saturated soils
may contribute to tree damage. A shift toward lighter, more
intermittent precipitation begins later today and persists into
Thursday as the moisture transport diminishes.
&&
Now through Monday...The atmospheric river that
has dominated the region continues to influence conditions early
this morning, though less widespread and impactful due to its
pivot to the north into Washington. The most persistent rain
through the morning hours will be mainly focused over the
Willapa Hills and south Washington Cascades. Additional rainfall
amounts in these areas until 4 AM Thursday are expected to
range from roughly 1.5 to 3.5 inches in the south Washington
Cascades and Willapa Hills, and 1 to 3 inches in the north
Oregon Cascades and North Oregon Coast Range. The interior
valleys will see much less, generally 0.05 to 0.15 inches at
McMinnville and northward. The real edge of the heavier
precipitation from the atmospheric river will likely be located
around Longview, where 0.50 to 0.75 inches of additional rain is
possible. Note, the threat of urban flooding is now over due to
the atmospheric river shifting more north, ushering lighter
rain.
Snow levels remain high (near or above 8000 ft) through today,
ensuring rain continues across the Cascades and sustaining
runoff into downstream rivers. A slow downward trend is
anticipated tonight into Thursday as colder air gradually
filters in behind the weakening plume.
Winds will remain a secondary but meaningful hazard today.
Southwesterly gusts will commonly reach 25 to 30 mph within
interior valleys, while gusts of 35 to 45 mph are likely across
higher terrain including the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and
Cascade ridges. Even where gusts are not particularly strong,
soil saturation increases the potential for tree falls and
localized power outages. A Wind Advisory continues until 10 PM
today for portions of northwest Oregon where the combination of
wind and compromised soil stability is most concerning.
As the atmospheric river breaks down later today, precipitation
rates will diminish, with showers becoming more scattered
overnight and into Thursday. Terrain-focused showers are
expected to persist longest across southwest Washington and the
north Oregon Coast Range. A more substantial drying trend is
anticipated Friday into Saturday as high pressure begins to
build offshore. Despite improving weather, rivers may remain
elevated for some time due to the slow response of several
basins and continuing saturation of soils across the Coast Range
and Cascades. Soils will remain saturated, particularly across
the Coast Range and Cascades, leaving the region sensitive to
additional rainfall. A frontal system looks to arrive early next
week, with potential for another round of notable rain amounts.
~12
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding remains a prominent concern this morning as
runoff from earlier rainfall continues to work through the
system. Additional precipitation through today, though lighter
than previous surges, will sustain elevated flows across
southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon. Note rain today
will be mainly limited to southwest WA and the coast. Multiple
rivers remain in or near flood stage, including the Grays,
Cowlitz, Nehalem, Wilson, and Siletz. The Pudding River, in
particular, is not near action or minor flood stage due to its
slower to respond nature but is still forecasted to reach flood
stage this morning before peaking later today. All of these
river stretches have Flood Warnings in effect.
Flood Advisories remain posted for portions of southwest
Washington and the north Oregon Coast where widespread ponding,
smaller stream rises, and localized flooding impacts are
ongoing. Although rainfall rates are not expected to be as
intense as earlier in the event, saturated soils continue to
pose a risk for landslides and debris flows, especially across
steep terrain and near recent burn scars. People, structures,
and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the
mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly moving
landslides.
Hydrologic concerns will persist even as the weather begins to
improve later today and Thursday, with several rivers expected
to remain elevated late into the week. Meanwhile, the threat of
urban flooding is now over with given the light rain rates in
place.
&&
.AVIATION...Steady rain remains north of the area today however
persistent low clouds and drizzle/light rain will continue to
fall along the coast due to moist upslope flow, including KAST
and KONP. Expect LIFR to IFR cigs cigs and/or visibilities to
continue at the coast through 18z Thursday with continued
drizzle/rain. Inland TAF sites will see a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs,
with MVFR cigs being most predominant. Latest hi-res models
indicate -shra to sag southward into the Portland area 05-06z
and central Willamette 10-12z Thursday. Gusty south to southwest
winds will continue through 09-11z Thursday with wind gusts up
to 20-30 kts.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...The KPDX terminal will see a mix of MVFR to
VFR cigs through 20z Thursday, with MVFR cigs being most
predominant. Probabilities for cigs to become broken increase
from 55% to 75% during this time. 30% chance for showers to return
to the KPDX terminal 06-09z increasing to 70% 10-11z. Gusty
south to southwest winds around 15 kts with gusts up to around
25 kts will continue through 11z Thursday then decreasing
15-18kts and below 15kts after 16z. -nws spokane
&&
.MARINE...
Seas were hovering around 10 to 12 ft at 12 to 13
seconds early Wednesday morning, with southerly to southwesterly
winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, except up to 35 kt over the inner
waters to the north of Cape Foulweather, including the Columbia
River Bar. These windier marine zones have a Gale Warning in
effect, while the outer waters and central inner waters from Cape
Foulweather to Florence have Small Craft Advisories in effect for
a combination of steep seas and wind gusts over 21 kt. Expect wind
gusts to fall below 30 kt over the inner waters by late Wednesday
evening, at which point the Gale Warning that is currently in
effect for the aforementioned marine zones ramps down to a Small
Craft Advisory.
Seas should fall below 10 ft by Thursday night and remain below
10 ft through the weekend. Next chance for strong winds and
hazardous seas will be late Sunday night into Monday when a strong
frontal system is set to move over the coastal waters. The
current forecast suggests wind gusts will peak between 35-40 kt,
which seems reasonable given there is a 80-90% chance for gale
force wind gusts over 34 kt during that time. While confidence is
high gale force wind gusts or stronger will materialize, there is
some uncertainty regarding how strong wind speeds will get.
Currently there is a 30% chance storm force wind gusts over 48 kt
occur with this frontal system. This means there is also
uncertainty regarding how high wind waves will build, which will
impact significant wave heights. There is currently a 50% chance
seas will peak around 13-15 ft late Monday, and a 10% chance seas
will peak near 20 ft. Suspect seas will peak closer to 15 ft if
gale force wind gusts materialize, and close to 20 ft or higher if
storm force wind gusts materialize. -23
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory for tidal overflow is
now in effect for the south WA coast through 7 PM PST Wednesday to
cover high tide early Wednesday morning and high tide Wednesday
afternoon. The tidal gauge in Toke Point, WA shows the forecast
total tide peaking near 9.5 ft at high tide early Wednesday morning,
and again at high tide Wednesday afternoon. The Willapa River has
fallen below 80% of flood flow, thus limiting the tidal overflow
flooding threat where the Willapa River drains into the Willapa
Bay. However, river levels remain near 80% of flood flow on the
Naselle River near Naselle. This means the threat for tidal overflow
flooding around high tide will be highest where the Naselle River
drains into the Willapa Bay.
In additional to the tidal overflow flood threat along the south
WA coast, there remains an elevated threat for sneaker waves late
Wednesday through Thursday along the entire coast. The swell
period increases to around 14-15 seconds with swell heights around
9-11 ft, with swell heights and swell periods decreasing late
Thursday night. This will create energetic waves that will present
a moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, which are waves that
can run significantly farther up a beach than normal, including
over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock
beachgoers off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid
ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution
should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on
the waves, and be especially watchful of children. -23
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for WAZ201.
PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-251-252.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Thursday for PZZ210-251-252.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Thursday for PZZ253-
271>273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 101814
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1014 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
Updated Aviation Discussion
.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through
the period. Only site YKM is MVFR or lower at this time, owing to
low CIGS/vsby. Extended the deteriorated conditions through 22Z,
but may need to update TAF earlier depending on winds materialize
at the airport. Otherwise, all other sites will see VFR vsby/CIGs
through the period. Breezy winds 12-20kts with gusts to around
25kts will continue this morning into the afternoon, except at
site ALW where winds will remain 20-30kts with gusts 30-40kts
through today and tonight. Sites PDT/PSC will see wind increases
to 18-25kts with gusts 30-35kts, starting around 20Z at site PSC
and 03Z at site PDT. Low level wind shear will impact sites
DLS/ALW this afternoon, with site DLS seeing wind shear end this
evening. Lawhorn/82
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025/
DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows persistent rainfall to be mainly over the WA
Cascades with some spill over in portions of Yakima Counties as well
as the Northern Blues. Winds are gradually settling overnight with
gusts of 20-30 mph for majority of the forecast area. However,
surface observations continue to show localized southwest to west
gusts up to 45-50 mph in small portions of the Lower Columbia Basin
of WA and Cascade gaps along the frontal boundary.
Today through Thursday...Models show a persistently strong
atmospheric river (IVT above 500 kg m/s) along the WA/OR Cascades
with some spills across eastern mountains (Northwest Blues and
Wallowas) through Thursday. This AR will bring QPF amounts in these
areas up to 1-3 inches with higher amounts along the crests of the
western slopes of WA Cascades. 3-hr QPF raw ensembles (HREF) show
the crests to the western slopes of Ellensburg and Yakima up to 1
inch (50-70% probability) and eastern mountains through the Grande
Ronde Valley and Wallowas seeing up to 0.50 inch or more of
precipitation today (<30% prob). With this significant amount of
moisture transport, the flash flood guidance will remain at least
15% along the crest of the WA Cascades. However, eastern mountains
and the Grande Ronde Valley may reach to 0.50 inches or below as the
AR slowly weakens (40-60% confidence). Otherwise, the lowlands will
see dry conditions during the 48-hr period.Many rivers are expected
to reach/exceed bankfull through tomorrow with Naches at Naches,
Yakima at Horlick and Easton exceeding action stage and into minor.
Flood Warnings will remain for those locations until early Saturday
evening hours. All other rivers in the area are still at or nearing
action stage and will be closely monitored as the event continues.
Breezy to windy conditions will prevail through early Thursday
morning. Sustained winds are expected to be at 20-30 mph with
gusts of 45-55 mph across the Columbia Basin of WA/OR along with
Simcoe Highlands, Yakima Valley and portions of the upper slopes
of WA Cascades. CAMS raw ensembles from HREF favor gusts up to
55-60 mph through majority of today over western slopes of WA
Cascades and 45-55 mph for the Foothills Blue Mountains-WA
including Lower Columbia Basin of WA (>60% confidence). That
said, wind advisories will remain through 7 AM PST Thursday for
those aforementioned areas. Confidence increases with the EFI
showing a very unusual climatologically event in the wind
forecast.
Temperatures will continue in a warming trend in the 50s and 60s
into next week. As cloud coverage prevails from the AR, this will
also keep the low temps relatively warm in the 40s and 50 around the
Columbia Basin, but mainly high 30s and low 40s elsewhere.
Feaster/97
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 64 50 61 44 / 20 0 10 10
ALW 64 54 60 48 / 40 10 30 30
PSC 65 54 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
YKM 62 47 60 41 / 40 30 20 10
HRI 65 53 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
ELN 58 43 52 39 / 70 40 20 30
RDM 63 36 60 31 / 10 0 0 0
LGD 58 45 55 41 / 20 0 20 20
GCD 58 39 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 63 54 61 47 / 50 60 30 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Thursday for ORZ041-044-507-508-510.
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Thursday for WAZ024-027>029-521.
Flood Watch through Friday morning for WAZ026-027-521>523.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...82
