or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 302247
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
247 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the Pacific Ocean has built a
resilient ridge, with the front edge remaining over the area. With
this pattern, seasonal temperatures and mild weather looks to
continue through most of the week. Northerly or northwesterly flow
will keep midlevel or high level clouds moving through the sky
during the day. Drier air over the area tonight looks to bring
cooler temperatures into early Monday morning, and
An "inside slider" (shortwave troughs that travel down the ridge and
to the southeast into a deeper continental trough) may interrupt the
general pattern early in the week. The first slider approaches on
Monday, raising overnight lows into early Tuesday morning. Some
slight chances for rainfall (25-50%) are present along the coast and
northern Douglas County during the day Tuesday. Any rain that does
fall in these areas will likely be measured in the hundreths of an
inch. Overnight lows will drop across the area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday, and areas along and east of the Cascades will see
cooler daytime highs on Wednesday. A significantly weaker shortwave
trough is in the upper pattern late Wednesday, with some imagery
showing the trough traveling farther east. Unless this trough
deepens and shifts west, it looks to have little to no impact.
The NBM shows signs of precipitation along the coast and Cascades as
early as Thursday afternoon, but this may be optimistic by a day.
Deterministic imagery for the ECMWF and GFS models show a cold front
managing to flatten the Pacific ridge enough to bring some showers
west of and along the Cascades late Friday into Saturday. There's
some divergence beyond, with the ECMWF drying out by Sunday and the
GFS staying active through the weekend and into next week.
Meteograms for both models generally support their respective
deterministic patterns, although the ECMWF ensemble has ~20% of its
members showing continuing rainfall. If the GFS outcome holds true,
precipitation amounts and snow levels will be a focus of future
forecasts. -TAD
&&
.AVIATION...30/18z TAFs...Early morning onshore flow brought just
enough moisture to allow fog development at North Bend, but these
conditions look to be clearing on satellite data. Low to midlevel
ceilings remain in low-lying areas, with these area expected to
clear by the afternoon as well. Mild weather today looks to keep VFR
levels across the area through the afternoon and evening. Continuing
onshore flow at the coast and low level inversions inland are
expected to support fog development and IFR-LIFR levels tonight into
early Monday morning, but this forecast may be affected by any
continuing cloud cover through the day. -TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November 30, 2025...Northerly
winds will increase this afternoon/evening, with gusts south of Port
Orford reaching Small Craft Advisory strength. The strongest north
winds will shift to the outer waters south of Cape Blanco tonight,
with steep seas expected to persist over the southern waters at
least into Wednesday. Seas may also become steep north of Cape
Blanco on Tuesday. An incoming long period west swell is expected to
peak at 7 to 11 ft Monday into Tuesday with a period around 21
seconds. Conditions may briefly improve for Thursday, but the
pattern is likely to turn more active late in the week.
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November
30, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first
arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday
morning. This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 11 ft at 16
to 18 seconds Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. While seas will
be steep, high surf conditions are not expected along beaches. If
you have plans to visit the coast on Monday, please be aware of this
sneaker wave potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to
the beaches for another day. These waves can wash over rocks and
jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep
them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves
can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide.
Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches.
Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean!
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for ORZ021-022.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST this
evening for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM PST Wednesday for
PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 302151
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
151 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues over the region today with
mostly dry conditions expected through Monday. Chilly
temperatures expected Monday morning. A weak front will bring
chances for light rain Monday night into Tuesday. Dry again on
Wednesday. Active weather returns as a series of frontal systems
bring increasing chances for rain later Thursday through the
weekend. Seasonable temperatures continue through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday Night...High pressure over the
area will keep today and Monday dry and generally clear with
cool overnight temperatures. While there have been a few
fluctuations in the forecast overnight lows, the overall impacts
will see little change. Continue to see high probabilities for
widespread frost in the lower elevations. Frost probabilities
are lowest within the Cascade valleys, the greater Portland-
Vancouver Metro, and exposed areas to higher winds. Elsewhere
(aside from the coast), there is greater than a 50% chance of
frost. In some rural areas it may be impactful enough to damage
any lingering vegetation. Those cooler temperatures will be
short lived though as a warm front moves over the area late
Monday into Tuesday. This front will bring rain to much of the
area but the main focus will be to the north and along the
terrain. 24 hour precipitation totals ending at 10 PM Tuesday
have lower end amounts of anywhere from 0.01-0.04" along the
coast with nearly nothing inland. higher end amounts though
range from 0.2-0.3" along the coast and up to 0.1" inland. In
southwest Washington though there is a 10% chance of 0.25" of
rain. Snow levels remain elevated so there is no risk for snow
in the lower elevations. -27
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Ensembles are consistent
in a high pressure ridge rebuilding on Wednesday. This ridge
will aid in pushing the front eastward and keep conditions
fairly "boring" through Thursday. Based on the global ensembles
there is around a 10% of some light continued precipitation
through the day on Wednesday but precipitation doesn't start
ramping up until Thursday morning. This precipitation is
expected to be light through the day but picking up overnight.
On Friday there is a trend towards yet another warm frontal
system. This front is associated with a low pressure system over
the Alaska Panhandle. Stratiform rain will fall with the GFS
being the more robust system. With atmospheric warming this time
of year there is generally a concern for Atmospheric River (AR)
conditions. Based on the IVT values of both the GFS and ECMWF
there is a trend to a low to moderate AR that will persist
from the 4th through the 6th. When looking at the track,
vectors are pointing straight easterly which would bode well for
periods of heavy rain. Given the long duration, will have to
consider watching for any flooding impacts. The GFS continues to
be the most rain heavy scenario with around a 5% chance of
2-2.5" in 24 hours ending Saturday morning around Astoria, and
less than a 5% chance of greater than 1.25" around Salem.
Rain persists through Sunday. I will note that some models are
suggesting around a 10% chance of flooding after Sunday.
However, these values are likely being triggered by the GFS that
is running much higher than it's other global ensemble
counterparts. -27
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure building offshore will maintain VFR
conditions through the period. Lingering low stratus over the
southern Willamette Valley is expected to dissipate by 00z Mon,
yielding VFR conditions. Winds around 5 kt will continue out of
the east to northeast for most, with northerly flow expected
instead along the Willamette Valley. Some gusts of 15-20 kt are
still possible to the west of terrain gaps, most notably including
KTTD, however the offshore wind gradient is beginning to weaken
and this stronger flow should wane this afternoon and evening.
Relatively fry offshore flow and frost development tonight should
preclude fog development at inland terminals.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the period
with beneath largely clear skies. East to northeast winds around
5 kt will continue into tonight, turning increasingly out of the
north-northwest at less than 5 kt by Monday morning. -36
&&
.MARINE...Benign weather continues across the coastal waters with
weak offshore flow at 5-10 kt and seas of 5-8 ft. Building high
pressure offshore will see flow turn increasingly out of the north
through Monday night while seas remain around 5 ft. A weak front
traversing the waters Monday night into Tuesday will see northwest
winds increase to 15-20 kt while a long-period westerly swell will
build seas to 9-11 ft on Tuesday. Winds and seas then ease midweek
before a more active weather pattern develops late in the week. At
this point, there are 25-40% chances seas rise above 10 ft again
Friday into next weekend, but this potential hinges on the track
and intensity of any potential weather system. -36
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A long-period westerly swell is expected along
the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts from
late Monday through Wednesday next week. Wave heights increasing
to 8 to 10 ft on Tuesday may not appear to present a safety risk
to those on area beaches, but these energetic waves will present a
moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, waves which can run
significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. In addition, a period of perigean spring or "king"
tides means these waves will have an even easier time reaching
high up onto beaches, limiting the areas which may be safe from
wave action.
A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued from 7 AM
Tuesday to 10 PM Wednesday. Sneaker waves can create potentially
life-threatening conditions in the surf zone when beachgoers can
be unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold
ocean waters. Caution should be used when in or near the water,
and those with children should be especially watchful. Never turn
your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep an eye on the waves.
Those participating in razor clam digs should additionally
exercise caution. -36
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 302219
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
219 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY POINTS...
1. Cold overnight temperatures with patchy fog/freezing fog
2. Mountain snow returns Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon
3. Widespread rain and high mountain snow Thursday night through the
weekend
.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows portions of the region to be
clearing out with only high clouds lingering overhead. However, the
eastern mountains through the Northern Blues still have a stratus
deck overhead. The round of snow from last night averaged 1 in here
at the office with other areas reporting a skiff to 0.5 inches of
snow on the ground. Dry northerly flow has taken over today and will
continue to usher in dry and cold temperatures through Monday
morning.
Today through Wednesday...Northerly flow will keep the region under
cold and dry conditions. Low clouds have persisted over the eastern
mountains and the Blues today mainly due to upslope flow. Cold air
will continue to settle over the region through the overnight hours
which will lead to patchy to areas of fog/freezing fog overnight
into the morning through many of the valleys, basins and foothills of
the Blues as well as areas along the Columbia River. Temperatures
overnight will be below freezing across the entire region with all
locations, except through the Gorge and isolated spots along the
river, seeing temperatures below 32 degrees with well over 80%
probabilities.
Monday afternoon and into the evening, models show a shortwave ahead
of a weak trough beginning to make its way towards the region. The
shortwave will bring back snow showers to the WA Cascades and across
the eastern mountains and the Northern Blues. 24 hour Raw guidance
has 50-80% probabilities of 1-3 inches across the Northern Blues,
Eagle Caps and higher elevations of the WA Cascades Monday night
though Tuesday. Zooming in on the I-84 corridor, raw ensembles show
50-70% probabilities of near 2 inches of snow and along the I-90
corridor 30-50% probabilities of 0.5-1 inch of snow.
Models show by Tuesday night the shortwave will have mostly cleared
the region allowing northerly dry flow to dominate the region again.
Dry and cold temperatures will dominate the region Wednesday ahead of
the next incoming wave. Temperatures again will be below 32 degrees
for much of the region with only the Gorge and isolated areas along
the river seeing temperature at or slightly above freezing with 75-
95% probabilities.
Thursday onwards...Models show another round of shortwaves making
their way into the region beginning Thursday that will another round
of mountain snow spreading to widespread rain across the lower
elevations. Clusters do shift in phase a bit with the biggest
discrepancy being in the timing of the event as well as amounts of
precipitation expected. Models do show the heaviest amounts of
precipitation will occur Thursday before slowly tapering off over
the weekend. Snow levels will be over 4000 ft and increasing to
above 6000 ft before decreasing to below 4000 ft Sunday. High
elevation snow is expected, however, along the I-90 and I-84
corridors little to no fall is expected with this system with
moderate confidence (60-70%). Much of the precipitation will fall as
rain below 4000 ft with only slight chances (15-30%) through
central/north central OR, the lower Columbia Basin of OR & WA and 30-
50% chances of 0.01-0.04 along the foothills. Highest amounts will
be through the mid to upper elevations Friday. Saturday,
precipitation looks to spill over along the eastern slopes of the
Cascades and farther along the foothills with (50-70%) probabilities
of those areas seeing between 0.01-0.05 inches of rain. Sunday will
see dryer conditions across the lower elevations with only light
rain across the eastern mountains with continued snow showers along
the higher crests. All in all a moderate chance (60-70%) of having a
wet weekend. 90
&&
.AVIATION...00z TAFs...Most sites will see VFR conditions this
evening, save for ALW and BDN where low cigs persist, however some
clearing has been observed for both sites this afternoon. Confidence
remains shaky on the development of low clouds and fog overnight
tonight, as colder air moving in combined with high clouds may
inhibit fog development, but made mention of at least sct-bkn low
cigs at a few sites since high pressure is moving in, which is
generally favorable for fog and low stratus development. Otherwise,
winds will remain light and terrain-driven. Another round of precip
may arrive to the forecast area around the tail-end of the period. 74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 22 38 30 40 / 0 10 40 60
ALW 26 37 31 38 / 0 20 50 70
PSC 25 37 27 39 / 0 10 20 20
YKM 24 38 25 43 / 10 10 10 0
HRI 25 37 28 41 / 0 10 30 40
ELN 22 37 25 43 / 10 20 20 10
RDM 19 49 27 46 / 0 10 10 10
LGD 21 42 31 40 / 0 10 40 80
GCD 21 47 31 43 / 0 10 30 50
DLS 31 42 35 50 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...74
