or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 071145
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
345 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025
.DISCUSSION...A warm front will bring light to occasionally moderate
rain to the north coast, Douglas County and northern Cascades late
this morning. The rain will gradually spread to the south coast,
coastal mountains and Cascades (south of highway 140) this afternoon
into tonight. With a strong westerly flow aloft, rainfall is
expected to be mainly along and west of the Cascades with dry
weather likely mostly hours and locations east of the Cascades, but
it will be windy in the afternoon with the strongest winds over the
ridges. However winds should remain below advisory criteria.
Precipitation will gradually diminish from south to north and ending
during the day Monday as the frontal boundary shifts north of the
forecast area.
The general consensus Tuesday and Wednesday keeps the bulk of the
rainfall north of the forecast area. However moderate to
occasionally heavy precipitation is expected in northern Douglas and
Coos County. These areas could see 1-4 inches of rainfall.
The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational
models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal
boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to
occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the
area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back
north as an upper ridge builds over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
ECMWF and GEFS members keep the main moisture axis to the north. The
0Z deterministic GFS and NAM show a strong 700MB jet of 65-70kt,
which could bring wind headlines north of Highway 140. We have
increased wind speeds over the east side, but will adjust as new
data become available.
There's good agreement upper ridging will build over the area the
latter part of the week and lasting into the start of next weekend
with the storm track likely to remain north of the area. Therefore,
it's more than likely we'll be dry with mild temperatures in the
afternoon. -Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...07/12z TAFs...Mid and high clouds over the area with
areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds in valleys west of the
Southern Oregon Cascades, including Medford and Grants Pass areas
through 18z. In the Umpqua valley, VFR ceilings are likely to
continue through 18z, then ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR
late this morning through this afternoon and could lower further to
IFR late this evening and tonight with reduction in visibility.
Along the coast and just offshore, a mix MVFR/IFR conditions are
likely through the TAF period with rain moving in.
East of the Cascades, VFR are expected to be the predominate
condition through the TAF period, although the higher terrain could
be partly obscured after 21z.
Moderate to strong winds aloft today will result in mountain wave
turbulence along and east of the Cascades with stronger winds near
and at the ridges.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, December 7, 2025...South winds
increase through the day today as another wet front approaches the
region. Gusty winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco will spread
to all of the southern Oregon waters Monday, with Gales and/or very
steep seas possible north of Cape Arago. Conditions remain unsettled
through the first part of next week, with several fronts bringing
periods of gusty south winds and a likelihood of high and steep
seas. -BPN/Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST
Monday for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday
for PZZ350-370.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for PZZ350-
370.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 071226
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
426 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A steady, moisture-rich pattern continues through midweek as two
strong atmospheric river surges arrive Monday and again Tuesday
night to Wednesday. Today will see comparatively lighter
rainfall, but conditions become increasingly impactful Monday
and Tuesday as deep subtropical moisture and stronger winds move
inland. River rises and localized flooding will need close
attention through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Light to moderate rainfall
will continue at intervals today under upper level zonal flow.
A passing disturbance this evening will maintain steady but
manageable rain rates, with amounts today lower than what is
expected early in the week. Rainfall totals through tonight are
projected to reach 0.2 to 0.4 inch across the interior lowlands,
0.4 to 0.8 inch along the coast, 0.8 to 2.0 inch in the Coast
Range, and 1 to 2.5 inches in the Cascades. These totals alone
are not expected to produce widespread impacts, but they will
further saturate soils ahead of the first major surge of
moisture on Monday.
Sunday night into Monday marks the transition to a
significantly wetter regime as the first atmospheric river
strengthens offshore and moves inland. IVT values Monday are
expected to rise sharply, reaching 600 to 800 kg/ms in many
ensemble members. Confidence is high that this surge will
produce widespread heavy rain beginning Monday morning, with
notably heavier rain amounts beginning Monday evening and
continuing overnight into early Tuesday. Rainfall amounts for
Monday continue to increase each model cycle. Current
expectations from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Tuesday place 1.25 to 2.50
inches across the interior lowlands, with the highest amounts
centered over southwest Washington, where 1.9 to 2.2 inches are
likely in the Portland-Vancouver corridor. Coastal areas will
see 3 to 4.5 inches, the Coast Range 4.5 to 7 inches, and the
Cascades 4 to 7 inches. The Lane County Cascades will be lower,
generally 0.75 to 1.75 inches. These amounts will occur on
already softened ground, prompting notable river responses and
elevated hydrologic concerns (see hydrology section below for
more details).
Winds will likely be a significant impact on Monday through
Wednesday, notably on Monday. Confidence is high that inland
locations will experience gusts of at least 30 mph on Monday,
while coastal communities and headlands will see at least 40
mph. There is a 5 to 10% chance of advisory-level southwesterly
gusts of 45 mph or greater within the Willamette Valley on
Monday. Along the coast and the Coast Range, there is a 40 to
60% probability of gusts reaching or exceeding 50 mph. Should
gusts of this magnitude occur, scattered downed trees and power
outages will be possible. Given that soils are already wet and
will continue to saturate further, root stability will be
compromised, raising the risk of tree damage and associated
impacts.
The second atmospheric river surge arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday and will closely follow the substantial rainfall
produced on Monday. IVT values with this second wave generally
center around 700 to 800 kg/ms, with ensemble solutions allowing
for a high-end scenario of 850 to 950 kg/ms and a lower
scenario of 550 to 650 kg/ms. The duration of this second round
may be longer than the first surge, maintaining high confidence
in additional heavy rainfall. Rainfall on Tuesday will be
somewhat moderated during the day, but heavier rates redevelop
Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday. Overall from 4 AM
Tuesday to 4 AM Thursday, expect 3.5 to 5 inches across the
interior lowlands, with the highest amounts over southwest
Washington and lowest amounts in the southern Willamette Valley.
The Portland/Vancouver corridor will likely receive 4.5 to 5
inches. Coastal areas will see 5.5 to 8.25 inches (highest
amounts in Tillamook), the Coast Range 8.25 to 12 inches, and
the Cascades 7.5 to 11 inches. Similar to Monday, the Lane
County Cascades will be lower, generally 4 to 7.5 inches.
Combined totals from both surges will be substantial and will
almost certainly produce localized flooding somewhere in the
forecast area. Rivers draining the Coast Range remain the most
sensitive to rapid rises.
Winds will stay elevated Tuesday and Wednesday, though Monday
remains the peak wind day. Inland gusts around 30 mph and
coastal gusts around 40 mph are expected during this period,
with the potential for isolated stronger gusts depending on the
timing of each frontal passage. Again, due to saturated soils
and compromised root stability, scattered downed trees and power
outages will be possible.
Snow levels will remain well above 6000 ft through midweek due
to the warm subtropical air mass, ensuring that nearly all
precipitation in the Cascades falls as rain. By Thursday and
Friday, the moisture plume weakens and transitions toward a
showery pattern. Conditions will gradually ease, but rivers and
soils will remain sensitive due to cumulative rainfall.
Forecast confidence is moderate regarding the timing and
intensity of Mondays surge and moderate for the Tuesday to
Wednesday period due to spread within the ensemble clusters.
Overall, the early to midweek timeframe remains the primary
focus for hydrologic and wind-related impacts. See the hydrology
section below for discussion related to the Flood
Warnings/Watches and river forecasts.
~12
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A series of frontal systems will keep conditions
very wet through the weekend and much of next week. The most
notable period will be late Monday through late Wednesday, when
a prolonged atmospheric river will bring significant rainfall
and the potential for widespread river flooding across southwest
Washington and northwest Oregon. There is a 10% chance for
72-hour rain amounts (from 4 AM Monday through 4 AM Thursday) up
to one foot in the Cascades and Coast Range, up to 8-10 inches
at the coast, and up to 7.5-8.5 inches in the Willamette Valley,
Portland/Vancouver metro and Cowlitz Valley. While rain amounts
this high are unlikely to occur, they represent a reasonable
worst case scenario, and are only 1-3 inches higher than the
official forecast. This worst case scenario would result in
widespread moderate to major flooding.
Although rain will likely become lighter Thursday into Friday,
the threat of flooding will linger along slow responding rivers.
Most rivers draining the Coast Range and Willapa Hills have a
30-75% chance of reaching moderate flood stage and a 20-50%
chance of reaching major flood stage. Additionally, several Willamette
River tributaries that drain from the Coast Range and Cascades
have anywhere from a 60-80% chance of reaching minor flood
stage and a 20-40% chance of reaching moderate flood stage.
Flooding of the Willamette mainstem rivers is unlikely to occur
(less than 10%). Probabilities for specific river points can be
found at the National Water Prediction Service website, which do
vary quite a bit from river to river.
There is also increasing confidence in the potential for
flooding along small creeks and streams as well as urban
flooding, including roadway flooding. Water pooling on roadways
will increase the risk of hydroplaning and car accidents.
Periods of heavy rain will also increase the risk for landslides
in areas of steep terrain and debris flows over recently burned
areas. People, structures, and roads located below steep
slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons may be at
serious risk from rapidly moving landslides.
A Flood Watch remains for all of southwest Washington and
northwest Oregon from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Friday. Considering
increased confidence and probabilities for flooding of rivers
and urban areas as the forecasted event approaches, a Flood
Warning has been issued for the following rivers, which
currently have the highest chance of reaching at least minor
flood stage within the next 36-48 hours:
Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County, from
Monday evening to late Tuesday morning. This river has a 75%
chance of reaching moderate flooding and a 50% chance of
reaching major flooding. Grays River at Covered Bridge near
Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County, from Monday evening to early
Thursday morning. This river has a 70% chance of reaching
moderate flooding and a 50% chance of reaching major flooding.
Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah
Counties, from Monday evening to late Wednesday evening. This
creek has a 70% chance of reaching moderate flooding, and a 60%
chance of reaching major flooding.
&&
.AVIATION...At 1130z Sunday, a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs and
visibilities were being observed across the area, with
predominately VFR cigs inland and predominately MVFR at the coast.
That said, still expecting MVFR cigs to become more widespread for
inland areas through 18z Sunday as persistent stratiform rain
continues across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington and
probabilities for cigs below 3000 ft increase to 60-80%. There is
also a 15-25% chance for periods of IFR cigs Sunday morning and
afternoon, except 50-60% at KAST and 80-90% at KONP. By 00z
Monday, expect persistent stratiform rain to transition over to
light rain showers.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Persistent light rain will continue through
19-20z Sunday before transitioning to off and on light rain
showers. Expect VFR cigs to eventually fall to high-end MVFR
thresholds by approximately 14z Sunday. This is also when low
level wind shear will increase. With SW winds around 30-35 kt at
2000 ft and 5-10 kt winds out of the SE to E at the surface, there
will be a period of modest low level wind shear at KTTD and KPDX
Sunday morning. -23
&&
.MARINE...A frontal system moving over the coastal waters this
morning will bring the continuation of south to southwest winds
with wind gusts upwards of 20-35 kt, strongest over the central
and southern waters where a marginal Gale Warning remains in
effect. Winds will decrease substantially Sunday afternoon and
evening, resulting in a brief period of benign conditions with
seas under 8-9 ft and wind gusts falling below 20 kt.
However, this break will be short-lived. A relatively stronger
frontal system is set to arrive on Monday, bringing gale force
wind gusts up to 35-45 kt, strongest over the inner waters and
near the Columbia River Bar. Gale Watches have been upgraded to
Gale Warnings now that confidence levels are high and probabilities
for gale force gusts are up to 80-90%. With the increasing winds,
seas will become steep and hazardous Monday afternoon into Monday
night. Expect seas to peak somewhere between 14 to 17 ft. Seas
decrease slightly Tuesday into Wednesday but remain above 10 ft,
with a period of breezy westerly winds up to 25-30 kt likely
Tuesday night (70-80% chance). Seas and winds subside late in the
week. -23
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Tidal overflow flooding is possible around high
tide on Monday and Tuesday, December 8-9. Despite total tide
forecasts decreasing over the coming days, river levels will be
rapidly rising due to a prolonged period of heavy rain Monday
through Wednesday. With several coastal rivers likely to reach at
least 80% of flood flow and total tide forecasts peaking near or
slightly above 9.5 ft, Coastal Flood Advisories may need to be
issued along all of portions of the coast if confidence
increases. Since the high tide alone will not be enough to cause
tidal overflow flooding, the outcome will be highly dependent on
which watersheds receive the heaviest rainfall and thus which
rivers reach at least 80% of flood flow. The timing of river level
rises will matter too, as it will need to coincide with high
tide. On Monday, river levels will be rising quickly, but it
appears rivers may stay below 80% of flood flow during high
tide before climbing above 80% Monday evening/night. If the timing
is correct, this should mitigate flood concerns around high tide.
On Tuesday, confidence is higher coastal rivers will reach at
least 80% of flood flow during high tide, but that is when the
total tide generally dips below 9.5 ft. Will need to monitor both
days closely and see how the river forecasts evolve. -23
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210-
251-271.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ210-251-271.
Gale Warning until noon PST today for PZZ252-253-272-273.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ252-253-
272-273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 071213
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
413 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Broad overview: The forecast through the middle to latter half of
this week can be succinctly described as predominantly warm, wet,
and windy. A subtropical high in the Pacific coupled with a
persistent quasi-zonal to zonal jet stream and multiple frontal
systems will direct several rounds of subtropical and tropical
moisture into the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to rises on
area rivers.
Key Messages:
1. Breezy to locally windy today, then widespread windy to locally
very windy Monday through Monday night.
2. Ample precipitation through Wednesday or Thursday will lead to
rises on area rivers.
3. Low (10 percent) potential for snow in the Kittitas and Wallowa
valleys Tuesday through Thursday.
Light precipitation is spreading east-northeastward across the
forecast area early this morning in response to low- to mid-level
warm air advection (WAA) associated with a Pacific warm front.
Snow levels are roughly 4500-5500 ft, and while light snow is
anticipated for mountain passes across the Cascades and Blue
Mountains, snow accumulations will likely (80 percent confidence)
remain below advisory thresholds.
Later this morning through afternoon, southwesterly to westerly
winds are expected to ramp, with winds of 15-25 mph accompanied
by gusts of 25-45 mph across wind-prone portions of the Columbia
Plateau. Locally stronger winds are likely (75 percent confidence)
along exposed ridges. Considered issuing a Wind Advisory for
north-central Oregon, the foothills of the southern Blue
Mountains, and the Simcoe Highlands from 10 AM to 4 PM PST, but
opted to forgo due to medium-high confidence (60-70 percent) in
reaching widespread advisory-level wind gusts. Will note that
forecast soundings from the 00Z HREF and 00Z REFS show a well-
mixed boundary layer during the period which would facilitate
mixing of the forecast 40-50 kt low-level jet to the surface.
Precipitation will turn more showery in nature later this
afternoon into tonight and remain mostly confined to mountain
areas. The next round of noteworthy precipitation is expected (80
percent confidence) to begin later Monday morning, persisting
through Wednesday night as multiple frontal systems focus ample
moisture from an atmospheric river. The best chance for
precipitation in the lower elevations will be later Monday morning
and afternoon through Wednesday as a boundary stalls over the
region. While snow levels are forecast to remain relatively high
through much of the week, there is a low (10 percent) chance that
snow levels will be low enough to enable a wintry mix or all snow
for the Kittitas Valley and other areas along the I-90 corridor up
to Snoqualmie Pass Tuesday through Thursday. Moreover, this low-
confidence scenario would also allow noteworthy snow in Wallowa
County and across the mountain passes of Washington and the
northern Blue Mountains.
Monday looks to be windy to very windy across the Columbia
Plateau as a strong low-level jet sets up over the region.
Moreover, forecast soundings from the 00Z HREF and 00Z REFS show a
well-mixed boundary layer similar to today, so confidence is
medium-high (50-80 percent) in needing Wind Advisories for the
majority of our low-elevation zones within the Columbia Basin
area. There is also potential for a High Wind Warning, but
confidence is low-medium (20-40 percent) in reaching those
thresholds.
On the subject of hydrologic concerns, current forecasts from the
NWRFC in Portland place multiple rivers at action stage by
Tuesday through Thursday of this week.
&&
.AVIATION...12z TAFs...Variable conditions are possible this
morning as a weak weather system moves through the region,
providing for a chance of light rain showers across most TAF sites
through the early afternoon. Only BDN/RDM will see low enough
chances for -ra that no mention was made in the TAF. MVFR
conditions are possible under showers, before gradual clearing
takes place by the late afternoon / early evening. Winds are
expected to pick up during the day as well, mainly out of the W/SW
with gusts up to 20 kts at some sites, before decreasing heading
into the evening. 74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 42 59 46 / 90 40 80 70
ALW 53 44 58 47 / 90 60 90 80
PSC 56 43 59 47 / 80 20 70 50
YKM 52 36 54 41 / 80 20 80 80
HRI 57 43 61 47 / 90 30 70 70
ELN 47 34 48 37 / 90 30 80 80
RDM 55 37 57 42 / 40 30 50 50
LGD 45 38 50 43 / 90 70 90 90
GCD 49 38 52 44 / 90 50 70 70
DLS 56 47 58 49 / 100 60 100 90
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...74
