or discuss
Office: MFR
FXUS66 KMFR 091123
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
323 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025
.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section...
&&
.AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...A front remains aimed at the Oregon Coast
just north of North Bend. This is bringing gusty winds to the coast
and a variety of ceiling conditions across the region. Along the
coast and just offshore, IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to
prevail through the TAF period, with visibility also lowering this
morning as the front slowly sags south. VFR conditions generally
prevail across the region, but LIFR conditions are spotted in the
Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys, and these lower conditions will
prevail through this morning. In the Umpqua Basin, the proximity of
the front could limit fog development there, and VFR conditions are
currently present, but have added MVFR ceilings when the sun comes.
Meanwhile, strong winds aloft will persist near the Cascades and
over the east side in Oregon (north of Highway 140) today where
higher terrain could experience gusts in excess of 50 mph. This
could lead to some low-level wind shear over there (NE of Klamath
Falls) since a low-level inversion probably doesn't allow these
winds to mix all the way to the surface in some valleys. Even so,
vertical mixing may improve today to allow surface wind gusts to 50
mph from around Summer Lake eastward.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 235 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025/
DISCUSSION...Satellite and observations show that low clouds are
developing across some west side valleys, including the Rogue
Valley. Heavier cloud cover is preventing fog development in more
east side spots, including Klamath Falls for now. Radar has a few
showers passing in far northern Coos and Douglas counties as they
move east tonight. Through the morning, these showers are forecast
to reach ~0.25"- 0.50" near the Douglas/Lane County border. Snow
levels in the affected areas are above 8,000 feet tonight.
The upper level high to our southwest off of central California is
still looking to be enough to keep most of the activity north near
Portland and Seattle this week. The main areas to see rainfall for
the next few days will be the same locations to see it now. Between
this morning and Wednesday morning, very northern Coos and Douglas
counties, including parts of the Cascades, can expect 0.30"-0.75",
with near 1.25"-1.75" near the northernmost part of Douglas
County. Most of the rain will fall between this morning and into
the evening. Although most of this will be occurring in a 12 hour
period, there is a lower concern for flooding with this compared
to areas north of us. East side and Northern California have the
lowest chances for rain with less than .15" from Chemult to Fort
Rock being the most to expect.
Although the area will be dry, east side will have to deal with
stronger winds between now and this afternoon. A mid-level jet of 50-
60 kt with similar speeds at 300 mb show that strong winds are
forecast to reach the surface during this time with gusts near 50
mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through this evening, and this
includes areas near Silver Lake, Summer Lake, and Paisley. Wind
gusts near 45 mph have already been reported at Summer Lake
early this morning. Please see the NPWMFR for more information.
Getting into the middle of the week, the high pressure to our
southwest takes control and brings drier conditions through at least
the start of next weekend. Earlier models were showing a continued
chance of showers at the coast through the work week, but this has
started to back off. The EC has also backed off on weekend rain
chances, but it is still coming in earlier than the GFS with a
Monday morning vs Monday afternoon timeframe. Either way, there is
some more agreement that early next week could have active weather
in both Southern Oregon and Northern California. In the meantime, we
will be watching for how the system the next few days moves through
and watch for how the models handle the next week after. -9
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, December 9, 2025...Gusty south
winds and steep wind waves combined with westerly swell will
maintain conditions hazardous to small craft through at least today.
Winds subside tonight, but west swell persists into Wednesday,
especially north of Cape Blanco. Conditions improve for the latter
half of the week as swell dominated seas gradually lower. Expecting
showers over the waters through mid-week as well which could further
reduce visibilities (fog/low clouds expected as well) over the next
couple days.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST
Wednesday for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370.
&&
$$
Office: PQR
FXUS66 KPQR 091335
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
535 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged atmospheric river continues to influence the Pacific
Northwest, sustaining periods of heavy rainfall, breezy winds,
and widespread hydrologic concerns through late Wednesday,
possibly as late as early Thursday. Widespread river flooding
remains likely, along with urban and small stream flooding due
to persistent heavy rain. Wind may lead to downed trees and
power outages due to saturated soils.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...Over the past 24 hours,
around 4 to 7 inches of rain has fallen over the north Oregon
Cascades, south Washington Cascades, Willapa Hills, north Oregon
Coast Range, south Washington coast, and northern and central
Oregon coast. About 1.5 to 4.5 inches of rain has fallen over
the Lower Columbia, Cowlitz Valley, and Portland/Vancouver
metro. Refer to the Hydrology section below for river information.
As of 430 AM, precipitation has decreased along the coast but
has increased inland. Around 230 AM to 330 AM, a mesoscale band
of heavy rain moved southward through the Portland/Vancouver
metro. Around 0.20 to 0.40 inch per hour was observed over the
area during that time period, increasing urban flooding and
prompting the issuance of a Flood Advisory. With this mesoscale
band and increasing precipitation inland, the Flood Advisory
will be maintained until 10 AM today.
Attention now turns to the second moisture surge expected to
arrive later this afternoon and persist into Wednesday. IVT
values are projected to be around 600 to 700 kg/ms across
western Washington and far northwest Oregon, suggesting the
strength of the atmospheric river to remain moderate. Given past
observations since Monday, we could see a stronger atmospheric
river. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected this
morning through Thursday afternoon over the interior lowlands to
the north of Eugene. Around 3.5 to 6.5 inches of additional
rain is expected over the Cascades and coastal mountains, mainly
to the north of Lane County. Given the saturated state of the
soil across the area, this will maintain an elevated threat for
urban, small stream, and river flooding. Landslides in areas of
steep terrain will be possible due to saturated soils, as well
as debris flows over recently burned areas. The focus once again
appears to be northern portions of the forecast area, though
the entire region will experience additional rainfall.
Snow levels remain high, holding near or above 8000 ft through
at least Wednesday, keeping all precipitation as rain in the
Cascades as rain, further contributing to elevated runoff and
river responses. A gradual downward trend in snow levels is
likely late Wednesday night, but too late to influence impacts
during the peak of this event.
Winds remain a secondary hazard but continue to carry relevance
given soil saturation. Overnight gusts generally ranged from 25
to 35 mph across the Advisory area. Similar speeds are expected
again later today as the second surge arrives. Even moderate
gusts may be capable of uprooting trees due to the extremely
saturated ground. Confidence remains moderate to high regarding
scattered tree impacts but low regarding exact location.
The atmospheric river weakens late Wednesday as moisture
transport decreases and the plume begins to dissipate. Showers
will persist into Thursday, though rainfall intensity will be
much lighter and increasingly confined to higher terrain across
southwest Washington and the north Oregon Coast Range. A more
stable pattern develops Friday into Saturday as high pressure
builds, leading to a notable drying trend. Snow levels gradually
lower to around 5500 to 6500 ft through the weekend. Despite
the improving weather, hydrologic impacts for slow- responding
rivers may linger a bit longer. Soils will remain saturated,
particularly across the Coast Range and Cascades, leaving the
region sensitive to additional rainfall.
~12
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A strong atmospheric river remains in place across southwest
Washington and northwest Oregon this morning, maintaining
an elevated threat of urban, river, and small stream flooding
through at least late Wednesday. Significant rainfall has
already fallen across much of the region since early Monday, and
river responses are now well underway. Additional rainfall
today through Wednesday from the second moisture surge will
prolong elevated flows, with many rivers already exceeding flood
stage, or forecast to exceed flood stage within the next 24-36
hours.
Rainfall over the past 24 to 36 hours has already pushed several
rivers into flood stage, including record flooding on the Grays
River (the old record height was 33.15 ft, which was broken
around 10 PM Monday when river levels peaked around 33.4 ft), major
flooding on the Naselle River, moderate flooding on the Willapa
River, and minor flooding for Nehalem River, Wilson River,
Trask River, Beaver Creek, East Fork Lewis River, Miami River,
and Washougal River. Elsewhere, many basins continue rising and
are expected to respond sharply again as periods of heavy rain
continue. While the Siletz River, Cowlitz River (Kelso and
Castle Rock), and Johnson Creek are currently not in flood
stage or action stage, these rivers are expected to reach minor
flood stage late this morning. Expect the Pudding River to reach
minor flood stage by late Wednesday.
The threat for flooding along small creeks and streams as well
as urban flooding, including roadway flooding, will continue
through Wednesday. Latest high-resolution guidance favors a
band of heavier precipitation lingering over southwestern
Washington and far northwestern Oregon this morning, with rates
around 0.25 inch per hour or higher. These heavy rainfall rates
could make for a hazardous morning commute along the I-5
corridor from Salem north through Portland/Vancouver to
Kelso/Longview with abundant water atop area roadways. Ponding
of water on roads will increase risk of hydroplaning and car
accidents.
Periods of heavy rain will also increase the risk for
landslides in areas of steep terrain and debris flows over
recently burned areas. People, structures, and roads located
below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons
may be at serious risk from rapidly moving landslides. A Flood
Watch remains in effect across all of southwest Washington and
northwest Oregon from now until 4 PM Thursday, except for most
of Lane County which has been removed from the Flood Watch.
&&
.AVIATION...A mixed bag of LIFR/IFR/MVFR/VFR cigs and IFR/MVFR/VFR
visibilities continues across northwest Oregon and southwest
Washington this morning, with cigs and visibilities being lowest
from KONP to KSLE and points north where a large band of steady
stratiform rain continues. Rain will be heavy at times through
Tuesday afternoon, especially during the morning and early
afternoon hours north of KEUG. Rain should finally begin to taper
off from south to north between 06-12z Wednesday as the
aforementioned band of stratiform rain lifts northward over
western Washington.
Although winds have become less gusty, occasional wind gusts up
to 20-25 kt are still being observed inland and up to 30 kt at
KONP. Winds will increase along the coast late this morning into
the afternoon, especially at KONP where wind gusts will likely
approach 35-40 kt.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect steady stratiform rain to persist
through at least 00z Wednesday, heavy at times this morning before
rain attempts becoming relatively light this evening. This will
result in persistent MVFR cigs throughout the TAF period, with
occasional dips to IFR possible (10-15% chance at any given hour
through 20z Tuesday, increasing to a 25-45% chance between 21z
Tuesday and 00z Wednesday, and then to 75% by 02z). Although winds
have weakened this morning, expect winds to increase again
towards 02-06z Wednesday when southerly to southwesterly wind
gusts up to 25-30 kt are likely. -23
&&
.MARINE...Buoy observations from early Tuesday morning showed seas
hovering around 13 to 14 ft with weakening winds. Seas should fall to
12-13 ft by Tuesday afternoon and then remain steady through
Wednesday night. Seas likely fall to 10 ft or lower by Thursday
afternoon. Gale force wind gusts up to 35-40 kt are expected
across the inner waters with the passage of a frontal system late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 kt over the outer
waters. That said, gale force wind gusts are likely already
occurring across PZZ253. Gusts will likely peak near 35 kt over
the Columbia River Bar beginning around sunset Tuesday.
Seas and winds will likely fall below small craft advisory criteria
on Friday, with relatively quiet conditions expected over the
coastal waters over the weekend. -23
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Tidal overflow flooding is possible around high
tide Tuesday afternoon, December 9th. Despite total tide
forecasts decreasing each day, river levels have risen rapidly due
to continued periods of heavy rain. While the Garibaldi tidal
gauge is anticipated to only peak near 9 ft around 3-4 PM Tuesday,
rivers flowing into the Nehalem and Tillamook Bays are running
unusually high. The Toke Point tidal gauge is expected to peak
near 9.5 ft around 3-4 PM Tuesday, and near 9 ft at Tongue Point.
The Willapa River, Wilson River, Trask River, Nehalem River and
Naselle River will likely remain above 80% of flood flow during
high tide, and possibly the Nestucca River as well. This will
temporarily increase chances for tidal overflow flooding around
high tide Tuesday afternoon along the south Washington, north
Oregon and central Oregon coast in the low lying areas near bays,
sloughs, and lower reaches of the coastal rivers. Therefore, the
Coastal Flood Advisory has been expanded to include the south
Washington coast, north Oregon coast and central Oregon coast.
Additionally, there is an elevated threat for sneaker waves late
Wednesday through Thursday along the SW Washington coast south
through the central Oregon coast. The swell period increases to
around 14-15 seconds with swell heights around 9-11 ft, with
swell heights and swell periods decreasing late Thursday night.
This will create energetic waves that will present a moderate to
high risk for sneaker waves, which are waves that can run
significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock beachgoers off of
their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may
lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in
or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be
especially watchful of children. -23
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM PST this
afternoon for ORZ101-102.
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM PST this
afternoon for WAZ201.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210-
251-252.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
PZZ210-251-252.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ253.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ253.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ271>273.
&&
$$
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Office: PDT
FXUS66 KPDT 091207
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
407 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025
.UPDATED AVIATION...12 TAFs...While an ongoing rain shadow keeps
rain pinned along the mountains, VFR conditions will prevail during
overnight hours for all sites with light rain currently over
KDLS. Through most of the day Tuesday, rain is forecast to develop
for all sites. KDLS, KPDT, and KRDM may reach to MVFR conditions
or lower as VSBYs and/or CIGs drop from the low clouds and
potential mist Tuesday morning into early evening hours. KPSC may
see MVFR conditions around early Tuesday evening as light rain
arrives starting late Tuesday afternoon(<30% confidence).
Southwest to west gusty winds are expected to be at 20-30kts or
higher for most sites overnight into Tuesday morning. However,
winds gusts up to 30kts could return for KBDN late Tuesday
morning and for KRDM early Tuesday evening. Feaster/97
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025/
.DISCUSSION...
Key Points:
1. Significant rainfall leading to flooding in some areas through
the week. *Flood Advisory and Warnings Active*
2. Breezy conditions through Thursday
3. Warm temperatures will continue through the long term
Current radar shows much of the incoming rainfall to be mostly on
the west side of the Cascades with some spill over in portions of
Kittitas and Yakima Counties as well as over the higher peaks of the
Blues. Winds are expected to begin settling through the morning with
ground observation showing gusts to be between 25-35 mph still.
Winds are expected to settle after 3-5 AM as the passage of the
front continues to move east.
Today through Thursday afternoon...Models show a relatively strong
atmospheric river has set up along the coast of WA and OR and
persisting through Thursday. This will bring widespread significant
rainfall to the region with QPF totals for today through Thursday
afternoon totaling to nearly 3 inches along the eastern slopes with
higher amounts along the crests. Models also show nearly 1-1.5
inches of precipitable water which is substantially higher than
the normal. CAMs raw ensembles (HREF) show the crests to the eastern
slopes through Ellensburg and the Dalles as well as the eastern
mountains through the Grande Ronde Valley and into Wallowa Valley
will see 0.05-1 inch or more of precipitation today (Tuesday)with 80-
90% confidence. This will continue through the day with ensembles
showing up to another inch of precipitation in the aforementioned
areas again Wednesday. However, backing off along the eastern
mountains and the Grande Ronde Valley where only 0.25-0.5 inches are
expected (60-80%). NBM raw ensembles show 25-65% chance of the lower
elevations such as the Basin and foothills of the Blues will see
0.25-0.30 inches in a 48 hour period and central OR will see 0.10
inches. With the significant rainfall across the WA Cascades, many
rivers are expected to reach/exceed bankfull through tomorrow.
Naches at Naches, Yakima at Horlick and Easton are all exceeding
action stage and into minor so a Flood Warning has been issued for
those locations. All other rivers in the area are still at or
nearing action stage and are continuing to be monitored as the event
continues to unfold.
Models show another cold front to make its way across the region
beginning Tuesday night and persisting through Wednesday bringing
another round of breezy conditions. Pressure gradients along the
Cascades with this front are not as strong as the previous with only
7-9 mb gradient. Winds will be from the southwest between 15-25 mph
sustained with gusts to 40 mph and will affect the wind prone Gap
areas as well as the eastern slopes, Horse Heaven Hills and the
Northern Blues of WA. After Wednesday, models show a more zonal flow
will rest over the region bringing winds back to a more diurnal
flow.
Lastly, models show that not only did this AR tap into an abundance
of moisture, but also in a abu-tropical flow that will bring with it
increasing temperatures. With the influx of warm air, temperatures
are expected to be 10-15 degrees warmer than seasonal average today
increasing to 15-25 degrees above seasonal average Wednesday. Short
term raw ensembles show elevations below 3500 feet will see
temperatures in the low to mid 50s Tuesday, with the exception of
Kittitas Valley where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s
(70-90% confidence). Moving to Wednesday, raw ensembles show the
same areas beginning to see temperatures in the low to mid 60s with
Kittitas Valley now seeing low to mid 50s (60-80% confidence).
Temperatures will steadily decrease as we move into the later
portion of the week, however, temperatures are expected to stay 10-
20 degrees above climatological normal. Essentially saying
temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 56 45 65 51 / 100 90 40 20
ALW 54 46 64 54 / 90 90 60 30
PSC 56 44 66 53 / 80 90 20 20
YKM 50 39 60 48 / 80 100 60 50
HRI 57 46 66 52 / 90 90 20 20
ELN 46 35 56 44 / 70 100 70 70
RDM 57 44 63 37 / 70 50 10 0
LGD 51 41 58 45 / 100 100 50 20
GCD 51 45 58 40 / 90 70 10 10
DLS 56 48 63 55 / 100 100 70 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for ORZ041-044-507-508-
510.
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for WAZ024-027>029-521.
Flood Watch through Friday morning for WAZ026-027-521>523.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...97
