ok discuss
Office: TSA
FXUS64 KTSA 041144
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
- Winter Weather Advisory for parts of northeast/east central
Oklahoma Thursday.
- Precipitation chances increase through Thursday morning with
areas of a wintry mix Thursday morning especially near/north of
the I-40 corridor.
- Warmer Friday and Saturday with another cold front Saturday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Mid/upper level low near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle Wednesday
night will continue to track east northeast into the region
Thursday morning. Ahead of this wave, scattered precip was
spreading from west-southwest to east-northeast within the 50-70KT
500-mb flow. This precip was occurring north of the surface cold
front that moved through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Aloft
increasing elevated frontogenetic forcing in the 850-600-mb layer
interacting with an west-east oriented axis of increasing omega
over the same layer was aiding in broken bands of precip
approaching/moving into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Surface temperatures as of 06z Thursday were just/slightly above
freezing, while just above the surface, temperatures below 0C
were common through the column. In response, light rain on the
southern end transitioning to light snow/sleet to light snow were
developing on the northern end of the precip.
Through the morning hours, this banded precip will continue to
push into/through the CWA. Latest model soundings have indicated
a slightly stronger and faster wave as it moves into the region.
Also, more moisture and depth to the dendritic growth zone should
help to create more of a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet with
limited potential for freezing drizzle/rain compared to 24-hrs
ago. Latest short-term solutions continue to highlight the
Interstate 40 corridor into far northwest Arkansas having the
greater potential for banded wintry precip through the morning
hours, as this looks to be were the higher omega field sets up.
Within the banded precip, a higher precip rate with a snow/sleet
mix to snow is forecast with a quick accumulation of up toward 1
inch across parts of northeast/east central Oklahoma Thursday
morning. Stronger mid level lapse rates along with the potential
for very weak elevated instability could allow for a isolated
thunder potential within this banded precip. At this time, though
will keep thunder potentials less than 10 percent. In any case,
have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these locations early
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, which could impact the
Thursday morning commute. Farther north toward the Oklahoma Kansas
border, light snow/flurries are forecast, while farther south of
I-40 light rain is forecast Thursday morning.
There are indications that this banded precip could make it into
far northwest Arkansas before weakening mid to late morning. Due
to uncertainties with a more precise location of the banded
precip and lower confidence on eastward extent, have held off on
advisory conditions in far northwest Arkansas for now. This will
need to be monitored closely as latest data come in.
Late morning through the afternoon hours, the wintry mix looks to
spread more east/southeast and could reach locations along and
north of a McAlester to Poteau line including the Fort
Smith/Arkansas River valley. Little to no wintry impacts are
anticipated south of the I-40 corridor. During the afternoon
hours, precip should begin to exit the CWA while the mid/upper low
moves through the CWA. Some light flurries could redevelop under
the low as it moves across through the afternoon hours for
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Precip chances
finally taper off and exit late afternoon/early evening.
Surface temperatures through the day Thursday are not anticipated
to warm much with afternoon temperatures near/just above freezing
north of I-40, and mid/upper 30s common south of I-40. Cloud
cover looks to hold over the region into Thursday night before
trying to scatter out early Friday morning. Low temperatures in
the 20s to low 30s from north to south are forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
The wintry conditions are progged to be short-lived as southerly
low level flow quickly returns Friday with temperatures climbing
back into the 40s/near 50 deg across the CWA. The warming trend
continues into Saturday before another shortwave and cold front
move through. The next cold front is forecast for Saturday night
with temperatures falling into the 40s for much of the CWA
Sunday. There remains some indications within the mid range model
solutions of precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night behind
the frontal boundary. For now will continue with previous
forecasts and keep PoPs just north/northeast of the CWA. However,
this also bares watching as a window of wintry precip could
develop Saturday night if moisture return/precip potential shifts
southward.
Looking into next week, southerly winds again quickly return and
become breezy Tuesday, aiding in warmer temperatures spreading
back over the CWA. At the tail end of the forecast, extended model
solutions try to drop another wave through the region around the
middle part of next week. Again with much uncertainties that far
out, will continue with a dry forecast for the first half of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Band of a rain snow mix extends through east central OK and far NW
AR with an expected trend of slowly shifting southward before a
gradual decay later this morning into early afternoon. A wide
range of ceilings currently resides across the local region. The
forecast will side toward MVFR to IFR conditions this morning with
an improvement into VFR levels during the afternoon. Clouds may be
slow to clear across western AR and the majority of guidance
develops a low stratus deck tonight across the western AR
terminals. Confidence is sufficiently high to include a similar
trend in the forecast but there also remains the potential for
persistent VFR conditions into the overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 27 50 32 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 38 32 49 33 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 36 27 52 34 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 33 23 49 27 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 35 27 47 32 / 40 0 0 0
BYV 34 27 47 32 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 34 28 49 33 / 50 0 0 0
MIO 33 25 47 29 / 10 0 0 0
F10 33 25 49 32 / 60 0 0 0
HHW 40 31 49 35 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ060-
064>067-070-071.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
Office: OUN
FXUS64 KOUN 041058
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
458 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
- Cold air arrives tonight with drizzle and cooling
temperatures through daybreak.
- A mix of snow and sleet is expected across western and central
Oklahoma from tomorrow morning to tomorrow afternoon, with
brief accumulation and travel impacts possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
In the wake of the reinforcing cold front, colder air continues
to filter south across the area overnight. Meanwhile, an upper
shortwave across the four corners area will shift east and
gradually shear out as it moves into the southern Plains toward
morning. This shearing out of the wave will reduce large scale
assent. However, models have been depicting frontogenesis
occurring around 700MB that gradually shifts south across Oklahoma
overnight into Thursday morning. This will likely result in the
development of a couple frontogenetical bands of precip. We are
already seeing one of those across the central and northern
Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma and another is expected to set
up from west Texas into southwest and central Oklahoma later
tonight and continue into the middle of the day Thursday. These
will likely result in some accumulations of snow and sleet in
these areas. There is a Winter Weather Advisory for much of
western into central Oklahoma through 3 PM Thursday afternoon for
the possibility of 1 to 2 inches of accumulations of snow and
sleet before the precip ends Thursday afternoon.
Ground temperatures remain rather mild, in the mid/upper 40s and
lower 50s, so most roadways are expected to remain wet, with
potential for some light accumulations during brief periods of
heavier snowfall. Otherwise, most accumulations that do occur will
be confined to grassy surfaces as well as elevated surfaces such
as bridges and overpasses.
Temperatures will struggle to warm Thursday, but temperatures are
expected to climb above freezing across most of the area by
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Southerly winds return on Friday. That, combined with sunny
skies, will allow temperatures to warm into the 50s.
Dry and seasonable conditions will continue on Saturday, albeit
with a bit more cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Next week is likely mainly dry. A front on Sunday will bring a
brief cooldown followed by a warming trend back to seasonable
temperatures and possibly above.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Restrictions to ceilings and visibilities will continue through
the morning. These will improve to VFR by the afternoon. A band of
rain/snow will continue along the I-44/I-40 corridors this
morning, reducing visibilities. Wintry precipitation will clear
the area by the afternoon. Northerly winds will weaken and shift
to the south by the end of the period. There is a very low chance
for fog Friday morning, but overall confidence in location/impacts
are low at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 35 25 49 30 / 50 0 0 0
Hobart OK 37 24 52 26 / 50 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 40 28 58 32 / 30 0 0 0
Gage OK 37 22 50 24 / 30 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 36 22 49 27 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 41 30 53 35 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ009-
010-014>017-021>036-038.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 041109
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
509 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
- Bands of snow showers are expected to continue through the
overnight period with all activity looking to taper off by
Thursday afternoon.
- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place over the Panhandles
till noon as localized heavy snowfall can be present from these
snow bands, which can lead to accumulation 1 to 4 inches over
small areas.
- Drier weather is expected to return for the weekend with
temperatures looking to warm back into the 50s and 60s by the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
As of late tonight, latest radar has indicated that the upper-
level trough is making its way into the Panhandles with multiple
bands of shower currently moving across the area. The heaviest of
these band is currently shifting southeast out of Dalhart, TX
where local reports have already seen 1 to 2 inches of snowfall
for tonight. Meanwhile to the south, multiple smaller bands have
brought flurries to even a brief period of graupel. Present CAMs
expect this activity to continue to push southeast with a new band
looking to once again set up somewhere in or around the I-40
corridor during the overnight hours. Depending on where this band
ends up an extra 2 to 4 inches of snow could be add to isolated
places across the Southern and Eastern Panhandles overnight. Given
the now possible placement of this higher snowfall rate and the
still ongoing snow in our north, we have decided to expand the
Winter Weather Advisory to all counties through noon Thursday. By
this time most models are in agreement that all snowfall will have
pushed eastward out of the Panhandles with the exiting trough.
Regardless this delayed exit will keep temperatures on the colder
side for Thursday, with afternoon highs only reaching into the 30s
to low 40s at best. By Friday, model agreement sees the Panhandles
much drier as upper-level flow shifts more northwesterly.
Temperatures for the day will also be much warmer with afternoon
highs closer to the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Model agreement looks to see closed upper-level low settle over
Hudson Bay in Canada, which in turn will set up northwesterly
upper-level flow for the Panhandles as we move into the weekend.
This flow alongside weak ridging does look to put an end to the
Panhandles chances of active weather, with most ensembles keeping
precipitation chances less than 10% through the middle of next
week. These drier conditions will also prompt a bit of a warm up
for the Panhandles with afternoon highs this weekend quickly
returning to the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, next week could see
high temperatures back into the 60s should this dry trend
continue.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
A winter weather system continues to impact the panhandles this
morning. This is causing a low level cloud deck of LIFR or worse
conditions at all terminals. KGUY has seen some transient holes
within this deck but these do not signal any improved conditions
at this time. This low level cloud deck will remain in place until
around noon when it will most likely lift and break up. During
the lifting and breaking up phase MVFR conditions can be expected
for all terminals. Then in the afternoon conditions improve to VFR
as the cloud deck dissipates. For KAMA during the mid morning
hours there is a low to moderate chance for light to moderate snow
showers that can cause MVFR to IFR reduced visibilities.
Otherwise winds will be be mainly weak from the SW through today.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
