ok discuss
Office: TSA
FXUS64 KTSA 101632
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
- Hot and dry weather will persist through the workweek. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of eastern Oklahoma,
northwest and west-central Arkansas today (Monday). Additional
heat headlines are likely in the coming days.
- Low rain and storm chances will be confined to areas near the
Kansas and Missouri borders late Friday and through the
upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls just north of
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Mid/upper level ridging over the Four Corners will continue to be
the main weather influencer for the foreseeable future. Models
show the ridge flattening out and expanding eastward, eventually
merging with the western Atlantic subtropical ridge that will be
stretching westward across the southeast CONUS by Monday
evening/night. Closer to the surface, lee troughing will remain
intact over the High Plains. This will cause moderate to breezy
southerly winds during the daytime on Monday, especially by mid-
late afternoon. Still some questions as to exactly how much mixing
will occur, but current thinking remains that most locations will
still reach Heat Advisory criteria by noon or in the early part
of the afternoon, before heat index values gradually fall mid-late
afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in place on Monday from noon
until 8 PM for the same locations as Sunday. One change made was
adding Carroll County to the Advisory. Anticipate afternoon heat
index values similar to today, averaging between 105 to 109 F in
the afternoon, with perhaps a few locations exceeding 109 F for an
hour or two. Rain chances stay near zero through the short- term
period.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
The mid/upper level subtropical ridge over the southeast CONUS
will merge with ridging over the Desert Southwest by Tuesday. A
trough will amplify and deepen over the West Coast early in the
week, shifting the ridge axis eastward over the Plains by
Wednesday. This will not only keep the oppressive heat in place,
but will also suppress any significant rain chances through at
least midweek. With that said, additional heat headlines will
likely be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday and
Friday, the ridge axis pushes farther eastward over the
Mississippi Valley and the southeast CONUS. With the ridge east of
the area late in the week, ensembles and medium-range guidance
suggests a weak to modest cold front will drift southward from
the Northern Plains and into the Central Plains by Thursday into
Thursday afternoon. Model guidance and ensembles stall the front
and keep it just north of the forecast area through the long-
term, but do hint at low probabilities of a few showers and
thunderstorms, perhaps as a result of outflow boundaries, drifting
into the northern parts of the CWA late in the week and into next
weekend. Assuming this verifies, at the very least, cloud cover
may help reduce temperatures slightly by a few degrees for
portions of the area. Otherwise, oppressive heat is expected to
persist into next weekend.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with potential for
diurnal cumulus at most sites. Gusty south to southwesterly winds
will be most likely into early evening at the E OK sites and again
beginning mid morning tomorrow at all sites except FSM. Wind gusts
should mainly be near to just below 20 kts, with occasional brief
gusts above that level primarily at TUL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 102 81 102 82 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 100 77 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 99 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 98 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 98 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 100 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
F10 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 97 76 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-
070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-129-219-
220-229.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-129-
219-220-229.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
FXUS64 KTSA 101656
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Hot and dry weather will persist through the workweek. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for much of E OK and W AR today and
Tuesday. Additional heat headlines are likely this week.
- Very low rain and storm chances will be confined to areas near
the Kansas and Missouri borders late this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Dangerous heat continues today with heat indices up to 109 for
many locations across E OK and NW AR. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect until 8 PM for most of the area. Quiet conditions are
likely tonight with mostly clear skies. Low temperatures will be
quite warm again in the mid to upper 70s with south winds
persisting overnight, especially across E OK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
The upper level ridging pattern will fluctuate in the coming days
but the end result for our area is more or less the same: hot and
dry. Ridging thus far has been centered over the four corners
region and across the SE U.S. with positive height anomalies
remaining in place between the two. As we move into mid-late week,
western ridging will tend to shift east and merge with the SE
ridge. This opens the door for a weak cold front to move into the
central Plains towards our CWA. However, latest guidance has
continued to suggest the front will remain north of us with fewer
sensible impacts for E OK and NW AR. Model output does indicate at
least a slight chance of rain near the KS and MO borders late
this weekend, but overall dry conditions are forecast to continue.
In the lower levels, lee troughing will provide persistent south-
southwest winds over the coming days. These winds will become
breezy during the afternoon hours and do not fully dissipate
overnight. With this orientation, we should see dewpoints mix out
more than previous days, especially mid to late week. However,
temperatures will also increase slightly during this time.
Overall, afternoon temperatures near/above 100 and maximum heat
index values greater than 105 will remain likely for much of the
area. Based on trends so far this morning and Sunday afternoon,
have issued a Heat Advisory for the same areas on Tuesday.
Additional heat headlines are likely over the coming days. Please
continue to take precautions to stay safe when outdoors this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with potential for
diurnal cumulus at most sites. Gusty south to southwesterly winds
will be most likely into early evening at the E OK sites and again
beginning mid morning tomorrow at all sites except FSM. Wind gusts
should mainly be near to just below 20 kts, with occasional brief
gusts above that level primarily at TUL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 102 82 102 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 77 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 78 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 77 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 75 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 76 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 78 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
F10 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 96 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-
070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-129-219-
220-229.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-129-
219-220-229.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
Office: OUN
FXUS64 KOUN 101847
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
147 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Hot temperatures continue through at least mid week with triple
digit heat and at least a moderate heat risk.
- Elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
The forecast remains on track with temperatures and/or heat index
values in the triple digits across most of the area. Elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon, but slightly higher humidity
and lower wind speeds will keep conditions in the elevated
category as opposed to near-critical.
A decent cumulus field has developed in south central Oklahoma,
and the FV3 and to some extent the ARW versions of the WRF do
develop some convection this afternoon. Have added 10% POPs with
the mention of isolated thunderstorms across south central
Oklahoma toward the Wichita Falls area for late this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Stop me if you've heard this before, but it's going to be hot
again Tuesday. And Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday are expected
to be similar to today, but we may keep slightly higher dewpoints
which will allow heat index values to be a degree or two higher
tomorrow. And still no organized potential of precipitation...
although we can not completely rule out very small chances (less
than 20%) of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon with
temperatures approaching the convective temperature in forecast
soundings, but the potential is too low to mention in the forecast
at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Hope continues to dwindle for the long term as models trend toward a
stronger ridge keeping us mostly hot and dry. We still have some low
chances for rain across the north this weekend, but that's about it.
Moisture return will help limit fire concerns, while at the same
time keeping those heat indices high.
Day
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions will once again persist through the period.
Southwesterly winds will relax this evening, and back to the
southeast overnight. Winds will then veer tomorrow morning towards
the southwest, and become gusty through the remainder of the
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 77 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 77 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 74 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 78 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 77 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048-
050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 101817
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
117 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Elevated to near-Critical Fire Weather conditions across the
Panhandles through Thursday.
- Widespread triple-digit high temperatures expected throughout the
work week.
- Monitoring a potential shift in the pattern that could bring storm
chances to the northwestern Panhandles Friday and into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Over the short term, upper-level high pressure continues to reside
over the Panhandles. Lee-side troughing will tighten surface
pressure gradients, allowing for sustained winds around 20 mph
across the Panhandles. Breezy conditions, along with dry conditions
intruding from the west, will allow for elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions to return. These conditions are dependent
upon fuels as well, which due to the recent heat wave and lack of
precipitation in many areas across the Panhandles, are estimated to
be around the 80th-90th percentile. These elevated fire conditions
will remain the case into tomorrow as well, with the same upper-
level pattern creating lee-side troughing and breezy conditions
across the Panhandles.
Other than elevated fire weather conditions, the story largely
remains the same. High temperatures in the triple digits, with low
(less than 10%) chance of precipitation in the far northwestern
Panhandles for today and Tuesday. With almost no upper-level
support, terrain induced thunderstorms are possible, but with around
40 degree dewpoint depressions at the surface and the best H700
ThetaE displaced SE from the northwestern Panhandles, thunderstorms
surviving the trip from higher elevation in New Mexico seems
unlikely.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level high remains in place over
the Panhandles, allowing hot and dry conditions to prevail. Thursday
we begin to see models trend toward the eastern propagation of
the upper-level high pressure, placing the CWA on the western
extent of the ridge. Perturbations in the upper-level flow could
lead to daily storm chances across the northwestern combined
Panhandles. The failure mode of this scenario lies in the
uncertainty of where this upper-level high will end up. There are
significant long-range model discrepancies in how far east the
high pressure center will propagate, and if it does not push far
enough east, the best chances of precipitation will likely be
displaced west of the Panhandles. Confidence will increase
throughout the week with persistence in model runs and as more
models see the event window, but until then, confidence remains
low.
The high pressure center is currently progged to retrograde back
west, placing the Panhandles under the upper-level high again as
we go into next week. This will support the return of widespread
triple-digit high temperatures and decreased PoP chances if
conditions stay consistent throughout the week.
Ferguson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds
will remain predominantly out of the S, reaching around 15-20 kts
sustained with gusts close to 30 kts in some areas (primarily KGUY
and KDHT). Sustained winds will come down to around 10 kts
overnight, before increasing again through Tuesday morning.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-010-317.
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
