Office: TSA
FXUS64 KTSA 181918
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
218 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Strong cold front currently passing through NE OK will continue
steady progress eastward and clear western AR and far SE OK by
mid evening. Scattered storms will remain possible along the
boundary before it clears the forecast area with breezy northerly
winds and noticeably cooler temperatures overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Cooler and dry weather prevails Friday with the next wave inducing
a broad region of upglide and expanding precip from late Friday
night through Saturday. Guidance continues to favor the bulk of
the precip across the southern half of the forecast area and
points southward. The heaviest rainfall totals are also likely to
remain south of the Red River through Saturday night. Widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precip will keep Saturday temps seasonably
cold with high temps 10-15 degrees below normal.
Sfc high overhead on Sunday yields a pleasant day with increasing
winds and warming temps on Monday. The next cold front passes on
Tuesday with the next chance of showers and storms. The developing
pattern for mid to late next week looks increasingly unsettled and
daily thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast with
specific details refined in later forecasts. Typical for this time
of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
MVFR conditions will likely continue for much of E OK & NW AR
through this evening, with improving cigs expected across NE OK
by 06z. MVFR cigs are projected to persist across NW AR sites
through much of the night, improving tomorrow morning. There may
be a period of IFR ceilings between 00-06z for NW AR sites as
well. As a cold front pushes through the region this afternoon,
winds will shift from southerly to northerly, becoming gusty at
times following the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast
along the front, potentially impacting all sites except for BVO...
which is already in the post-frontal airmass... and have included
TEMPO groups to account for this potential.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 68 48 61 / 0 10 40 50
FSM 53 72 52 60 / 20 20 60 60
MLC 50 70 51 58 / 0 20 80 80
BVO 41 66 44 62 / 0 0 20 40
FYV 45 69 46 61 / 10 10 40 50
BYV 46 66 47 61 / 20 10 30 30
MKO 48 69 49 59 / 0 10 60 60
MIO 43 65 45 60 / 10 0 20 30
F10 47 68 49 58 / 0 10 60 70
HHW 51 69 52 58 / 30 20 80 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
Office: OUN
FXUS64 KOUN 182006
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
306 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
As of 2:30 PM, the cold front extended from Holdenville to Ardmore
and breezy north winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed
behind the boundary. A cooler airmass has entered much of Oklahoma
with coolest temperatures currently in the mid 50's across parts
of northern and west-central Oklahoma.
Latest satellite shows a line of cumulus extending along the front
and recent radar images show elevated echos in Tulsa's area with a
few cloud flashes observed there also. A brief window of strong to
severe storms remains possible across our southeastern counties
this afternoon and with the front likely exiting our CWA boundaries
by 5 PM. Large hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up
to 60 mph are possible with any storms that develop in our area.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 30's
(northern OK) to low 50's (southeast OK). Winds gradually decrease
overnight, and though winds will be light by dawn on Friday, wind
chills could drop into the low 30's.
Tomorrow, expect increasing clouds and high temperatures in the
60's. Low rain chances return to southeastern parts of the FA
during the day.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
A subtropical shortwave will translate across the desert southwest
as surface high pressure overspreads the region. Deepening
isentropic lift will bring rain to our area late Friday night,
during the day Saturday and into the evening for the southern
half of our CWA. With low to potentially moderate instability
prog'd, there is a chance of sub-severe thunderstorms through
this period as well. The rainfall amount gradient will be oriented
north (lower amounts) to south (higher) across our CWA with the
highest mean 48-hour rainfall amounts near 2 inches (and 75th-90th
percentile amounts of 3-3.5 inches) concentrated near Wichita
Falls and eastward along the Red River.
With cloudy skies and widespread rain, below-average temperatures
are expected. While low temperatures are not prog'd to reach
freezing, it will still feel chilly the next few nights and into
the morning hours with wind chill values in the 30's possible
through early Monday morning.
Then more seasonable conditions return on Monday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday with the approach of
another cold front.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
A cold front has cleared all but southeast Oklahoma at this time,
with gusty northerly winds in its wake. Wind gusts have subsided
some compared to this morning behind the front, but gusts of 20-35
knots remain possible through the afternoon. Ceilings are
generally MVFR across northern Oklahoma behind the front and also
across southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front, but are expected to
improve to VFR this evening and overnight at most of our sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 45 66 48 56 / 0 10 60 80
Hobart OK 42 65 45 54 / 0 0 70 80
Wichita Falls TX 48 67 50 56 / 0 10 90 90
Gage OK 38 64 40 54 / 0 0 40 60
Ponca City OK 42 65 45 59 / 0 0 20 40
Durant OK 50 70 53 60 / 10 20 80 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 181924
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
The winds remain out of the north this afternoon and evening
moving colder air across the panhandles. While the winds remain
gusty for the afternoon they are slowly weakening and should cease
gusting no later then sundown. The arrival of colder air will
cause the overnight lows Thursday into Friday reach the mid to
lower 30s but still remain above freezing across much of the
northern panhandles. The southern panhandles will be a bit warmer
in the upper 30s to low 40s. For the northern panhandles these
temperatures are around what would cause frost, however expected
overnight cloud cover should prevent this from occurring.
Regardless it would be best to protect plants now as this weekend
will be cold and the chance for frost is not zero. A brief period
of calm weather will linger over the panhandles Friday morning to
early afternoon ahead of another weather system. The next system
is expected to arrive by later Friday bringing moisture to the
panhandles. The overall trajectory of the moisture favors the
southern potion of the panhandles. This moisture will allow for
rain showers and even some isolated thunderstorms. There is still
some uncertainty in exactly where this moisture will track so the
amounts could vary from barely nothing to a couple tenths to a
high amount of .75 in. Currently the lower side of that estimate
seems to be the most likely scenario. THe overall dynamics with
this system are on the weaker side so only weaker general
thunderstorms are anticipated. Otherwise this system will keep
cooler air over the panhandles with highs remaining in the 50s to
60s.
SH
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Cooler temperatures and rain chances will continue through the
beginning of the long term forecast. Warmer, near average,
temperatures return early next week with continued chances for
showers and/or thunderstorms.
A H300 disturbance should be located over eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico at the beginning of this long term forecast.
Weak forcing out ahead of the feature combined with some low to
mid level moisture should lead to light rain showers or
thunderstorms across portions of the Panhandles. Given the lack of
moisture depth in the mid to upper levels, currently expecting the
precipitation to remain light with totals generally around a half
inch or less, with the highest amounts for the southeastern Texas
Panhandle. The main wave should move across the Southern High
Plains late on Saturday. Some lingering rain showers or storms
will be possible into Sunday morning, but rain totals after
Saturday will likely remain very light. Highs on Saturday will be
the coldest of the next 7 days with most locations staying in the
40s, which is around 20 to 25 degrees below average for this time
of year. Light winds and the colder temperatures will remain
across the Panhandles on Saturday night. Near freezing to just
below freezing temperatures are looking more and more likely for a
majority of the CWA so frost and/or freeze products will likely be
needed on Sunday morning.
Going into next work week, model guidance has been inconsistent on
the temperature side of things. In general, temperatures will
return to near average or slightly above average with highs in the
70s to 80s. Mainly zonal flow returns to the southern CONUS during
the middle part of the week. There are still models suggesting
weak shortwaves embedded in the flow may provide enough lift to
generate some showers or thunderstorms during this time frame.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Northerly winds remain gusty across the panhandles following the
passage of a cold front this morning. These winds are already
starting to weaken from N to S this afternoon and will continue
to do so till the gusts cease. This front brought low clouds that
are causing MVFR clouds decks across much of the panhandles this
morning. This cloud deck is dissipating from S to N with
conditions becoming VFR once the low clouds dissolve. VFR
conditions should then persist through the overnight and Friday
morning. Late on Friday a weather system looks to bring active
weather back to the panhandles with rain showers and even
thunderstorms. This active weather is likely to impact all the TAF
sites so stay tuned for future forecasts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 41 63 40 48 / 0 0 70 70
Beaver OK 37 63 37 52 / 0 0 30 60
Boise City OK 36 65 34 47 / 0 0 40 40
Borger TX 43 67 41 52 / 0 0 50 50
Boys Ranch TX 41 67 40 50 / 0 0 60 50
Canyon TX 41 63 39 48 / 0 0 70 80
Clarendon TX 43 61 42 49 / 0 0 70 90
Dalhart TX 36 67 35 47 / 0 0 60 40
Guymon OK 36 64 36 49 / 0 0 40 50
Hereford TX 41 66 40 49 / 0 0 80 80
Lipscomb TX 40 63 40 52 / 0 0 40 70
Pampa TX 41 63 41 49 / 0 0 50 70
Shamrock TX 42 63 41 50 / 0 0 60 90
Wellington TX 43 63 43 50 / 0 0 70 90
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98
