Office: TSA
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
- Cold night tonight with clearing skies
- Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
potent cold front arrives dropping temperatures back well below
normal for Thursday.
- Precipitation chances remain low... some light drizzle or
freezing drizzle possible Wednesday night and low rain chances
Thursday near the Red River
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Precipitation has exited the area this evening and skies will
begin to gradually clear from west to east with the passage of
the trough axis overnight tonight. Surface high pressure settling
over the region will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s to
upper teens by Tuesday morning. After the cold start, a decent
warm up is expected during the day Tuesday aided by mostly sunny
skies and a return of southerly winds. The surface high quickly
shifts east by Tuesday afternoon, while surface cyclogenesis
commences over eastern New Mexico in advance of the next wave. The
result will be rather gusty southerly winds by afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma, with some gusts of 20 mph possible. Temperatures
look to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, though the breezy
conditions will likely make it feel cooler. Tuesday night won't be
as cold, with lows generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Moving into the middle part of the week, the slight warming trend
will continue into Wednesday ahead of another frontal boundary
set to move through the region Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring another shot of cold air to the region. Trends continue to
be drier with this frontal passage as moisture remains pushed well
south of the forecast area. Still, a subtle mid level disturbance
moving across northern Oklahoma Wednesday night could generate
some very light precipitation over the area, though it will have
to overcome relatively dry air both aloft and near the surface.
Forecast soundings show more of a drizzle/freezing drizzle
scenario with the lack of any deeper moisture in the layer.
Chances still appear very low at this point, but will bear
watching as freezing drizzle can cause travel impacts rather
quickly if it occurs.
Thursday will be another cold day with highs in the 30s and breezy
northerly winds. Another wave moving through the area late
Thursday could generate some light rain showers, primarily near
the Red River Thursday into Thursday night. Better chances will
remain south of the forecast area, where better moisture will stay
put through the period. Generally seasonable and dry conditions
will close out the work week and weekend as we remain entrenched
in a northwest flow pattern aloft. Another frontal passage looks
to arrive on Sunday, though not as strong as the two fronts this
week. Any appreciable synoptic lift looks to remain north of the
local region, and thus precipitation chances remain below
mentionable through the rest of the period.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
MVFR ceilings will persist across NW AR through early morning with
skies then becoming clear across all terminals by mid to late
morning. Light winds becoming southerly will corresponding to
passing sfc ridge axis.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 48 31 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 46 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 50 34 56 27 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 48 27 47 18 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 44 28 50 24 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 43 27 50 22 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 46 30 52 24 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 43 28 47 17 / 0 0 0 10
F10 49 31 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 46 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
Office: OUN
FXUS64 KOUN 021134
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
534 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
- A cold front Wednesday will bring colder weather into Thursday.
Breezy post-frontal winds may give way to single digit to teens
wind chill values.
- There is a slight chance for light wintry precipitation
Thursday morning across western north Texas and far southern
Oklahoma.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Surface ridge will continue to push off to the east today as lee
troughing increasing along the Rockies. That being said, southerly
winds will return across the southern Plains by this afternoon.
Temperatures will be much warmer this afternoon beneath sunny
skies. We will mostly see afternoon highs in the 50s for the
entire area.
Bunker
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
A weak front will begin to move into the northwest portions of
Oklahoma on Tuesday night. Overnight temperatures ahead of this
boundary will be in the low to mid 30s, and into the 20s along and
behind the front. The next mid-level trough will dig into the
Desert Southwest on Wednesday, helping to push the front through
the area by the late morning hours. Winds behind the front area
expected to be breezy, and will roughly be between 15-25 mph. The
drier air will keep afternoon highs similar to Tuesday, with most
locations in the 50s and perhaps even low 60s across southern
Oklahoma.
As the main wave traverses the Rockies Thursday morning, there is
a low chance for wintry mix across portions of western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma. These chances are low at this time,
as drier mid- level and low-level air may inhibit any
precipitation at all. Should precipitation begin in the morning,
it will transition to rain during the late morning and early
afternoon as temperatures warm up above freezing. At this time,
little-to-no accumulation is expected.
Bunker
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1212 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
By Friday and Saturday, temperatures are expected to rebound back
up into the 50s to 60s, with dry conditions. Another cold front
will move in Saturday evening, knocking temperatures down a few
degrees on Sunday. Dry conditions will continue through the
weekend and into the early portions of next week.
Bunker
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds this morning will become predominantly
south-southwest to southerly. These winds will become gusty across
the western terminals (KWWR and KCSM). By tonight, a
strengthening low-level jet will result in low-level wind shear.
A cold front/northerly wind shift will move into northwest
Oklahoma toward the end of the TAF period (impacting KWWR).
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 51 32 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 53 32 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 55 38 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 54 25 45 17 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 50 28 47 17 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 50 33 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 021122
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
522 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
-Potential for light snow Wednesday night for the central to
western combined Panhandles.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
It may be a different day, but it is another cold start to the
day. Temperatures are in the teens to mid 20s and some locations
are even having wind chill values in the single digits. Once
again, bundle up if heading out this morning. This afternoon will
warm up to near average highs, in the 50s to low 60s. It will be a
bit breezy out there though, especially for locations across the
southern Texas Panhandle. The previous forecast remains on track
with only minor edits made.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Slight H5 height rises are expected today as an upper level trough
exits the area. This will allow H85 temperatures to warm back around
positive 10 degrees C. Afternoon highs are progged to be in the
upper 50s to possibly some lower 60s because of this. The next upper
level trough to impact the area is expected to swing through late
tomorrow. Out of ahead of it, a leeside surface low is progged to
develop just to the west in NM today causing some breezy
southwesterly winds. As this low traverses the combined Panhandles
tonight, a cold front will follow moving into the area early
tomorrow. This front is expected to bring in north to northeast
winds around 15 to 20 mph by Wed afternoon and help hold
temperatures back 8 to 15 degrees. The upper level trough may also
bring some prospects for snow. The western Panhandles has the best
chance of measuring snow with PoPs around 30, dropping off to 10 or
less in the eastern Panhandles. Models have depicted this system
moving in much faster now with PoPs in the northwest during the day
Wednesday, with much of the activity happening Wednesday and
wrapping up before sunrise Thursday.
With this very open and positively tilted trough to come in Wed
night, moisture will be lacking once again. Flow aloft remains too
zonal with little to no low level moisture to work with. Much of the
mid to upper level moisture that is bringing the snow chances will
be lost over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before the main lift
gets here. The NBM mean gives the higher elevations 5" of snow, with
maybe the highest peaks getting 6" to 7". The NBM mean only gives
the far northwest combined Panhandles around 1" with less than half
an inch further into the central Panhandles. Overall this system is
not looking favorable for any significant moisture, but will be
watch for potential winter impacts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Thanks to the cold front on Wed, see short term discussion, Thu is
looking to have some fairly cool afternoon highs in the lower to mid
40s. The NBM has backed off on some cooler air moving in with
previous forecast packages only having highs in the 30s on Thu. This
is probably thanks to this system moving in and out much sooner than
previous model runs. Not much else to talk about in the long term as
temperatures are set to rebound back into the 50s to maybe lower 60s
with no foreseeable precipitation chances. A weak cold front may
temporarily pull back temperatures a bit for Sunday with the
northeast seeing afternoon temperatures in the 40s with mid to upper
50s in the central to southwestern combined Panhandles.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR conditions will likely continue with this TAF cycle. Winds
out of the south are expected with some gusts up to 25-30 kts,
particularly at KAMA. Winds will decrease around sunset and will
eventually switch to out of the north behind a cold front. Mostly
clear skies are expected over the next 24 hours.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05
