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Office: TSA

FXUS64 KTSA 261530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1030 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Morning fog has dissipated, and earlier update was to remove
wording from the zone text. Very warm and humid day on tap for all
of the forecast area under mostly full sun. Made a few tweaks to
sky cover, and re-sent the morning package to account for any
wording changes, but overall first period elements look good and
have been left unaltered. An isolated storm isn't out of the
question across far southeast OK and west central AR this
afternoon given a weakness in the building upper ridge, but will
leave any mention out of the zone text. Area 12z soundings are
in line with forecasted afternoon temps as well.

Any impacts from Alberto look to remain well east and northeast
of the forecast area next week as it comes ashore. The upper
ridge to strengthen again across the southern plains for the mid
to latter parts of next week.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.








&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

FXUS64 KTSA 261530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1030 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Morning fog has dissipated, and earlier update was to remove
wording from the zone text. Very warm and humid day on tap for all
of the forecast area under mostly full sun. Made a few tweaks to
sky cover, and re-sent the morning package to account for any
wording changes, but overall first period elements look good and
have been left unaltered. An isolated storm isn't out of the
question across far southeast OK and west central AR this
afternoon given a weakness in the building upper ridge, but will
leave any mention out of the zone text. Area 12z soundings are
in line with forecasted afternoon temps as well.

Any impacts from Alberto look to remain well east and northeast
of the forecast area next week as it comes ashore. The upper
ridge to strengthen again across the southern plains for the mid
to latter parts of next week.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.








&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05



Office: OUN FXUS64 KOUN 261029 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 529 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR will apply through the forecast period. Skies will generally remain clear. Expect southeast winds around 10 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 70 93 69 / 10 0 0 10 Hobart OK 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 99 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 10 Gage OK 97 68 96 70 / 0 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 94 67 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 92 71 93 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/03/03 FXUS64 KOUN 261029 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 529 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR will apply through the forecast period. Skies will generally remain clear. Expect southeast winds around 10 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 70 93 69 / 10 0 0 10 Hobart OK 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 99 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 10 Gage OK 97 68 96 70 / 0 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 94 67 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 92 71 93 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/03/03
Office: AMA FXUS64 KAMA 261049 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 549 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 .AVIATION... Some fog will be possible at the GUY TAF site at the start of this forecast, so have included a tempo group there. DHT and AMA should remain VFR through this forecast. Southeast winds will get gusty by this afternoon and then they will decrease toward sunset. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/ DISCUSSION... Very warm temperatures will be the highlight throughout the weekend. An upper level ridge with its axis extending northeastward is expected to become quasi-stationary over the region. As a surface trough sets up south of the region later on this afternoon, this will lead to an increase in southeasterly flow toward the mid to late afternoon hours on Saturday which will help keep the dryline across the far western Panhandles. This may limit some high temperatures eclipsing yesterdays values. However, temperatures across the area will still be very warm with many areas expected to be very close to or reaching 100 degrees. In particular, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon State Park along with the lower elevation areas in the canyon of Armstrong County this afternoon and early evening where high temperatures are expected to be at or above 105 degrees. Given the stagnant airmass that has been leftover from yesterday and the very light winds less than 5 kts throughout the previous day with a large area of favorable upper level subsidence over the region, temperatures yesterday in the aforementioned advisory areas were much warmer than the rest of the region based off of observational data. With a more steady southeasterly wind not expected until later in the afternoon, temperatures during the Advisory period for today are expected to be similar to yesterdays values. With the previously stated mid level ridge, no precipitation is expected across the region for today. Going into the second half of the weekend, the main upper level ridge will shift east of the Panhandles bringing southwesterly mid level flow into the region which will then shift to more of a zonal flow during the second half of Sunday. A perturbation in the mean 700-500 hPa flow with good diffluent flow in-conjunction with the positioning of the dryline across the western Panhandles should help generate some diurnal showers and thunderstorms across the central and western Panhandles and then move east into the eastern Panhandles into the early morning hours on Monday. High temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in the lower to upper 90s across the region. An upper level disturbance moving into the central Rockies during the first half of the coming week along with perturbations in the mean mid level flow along dryline positioning will help generate several chances of diurnal thunderstorms mainly across the northern and eastern Panhandles w.r.t to the positioning of the upper level system and dryline through Wednesday. Toward the end of the forecast period, an upper level ridge building northeast from Mexico along with a deepening trough across the western CONUS should increase our mid level southwesterly flow toward the end of the work week. High temperatures throughout the week will remain above average. Went above guidance by the end of the coming week with a strong southwesterly flow, temperatures may reach the mid 100's by Thursday and Friday. Meccariello && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Palo Duro Canyon. OK...None. && $$ 15/29 FXUS64 KAMA 261049 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 549 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 .AVIATION... Some fog will be possible at the GUY TAF site at the start of this forecast, so have included a tempo group there. DHT and AMA should remain VFR through this forecast. Southeast winds will get gusty by this afternoon and then they will decrease toward sunset. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/ DISCUSSION... Very warm temperatures will be the highlight throughout the weekend. An upper level ridge with its axis extending northeastward is expected to become quasi-stationary over the region. As a surface trough sets up south of the region later on this afternoon, this will lead to an increase in southeasterly flow toward the mid to late afternoon hours on Saturday which will help keep the dryline across the far western Panhandles. This may limit some high temperatures eclipsing yesterdays values. However, temperatures across the area will still be very warm with many areas expected to be very close to or reaching 100 degrees. In particular, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon State Park along with the lower elevation areas in the canyon of Armstrong County this afternoon and early evening where high temperatures are expected to be at or above 105 degrees. Given the stagnant airmass that has been leftover from yesterday and the very light winds less than 5 kts throughout the previous day with a large area of favorable upper level subsidence over the region, temperatures yesterday in the aforementioned advisory areas were much warmer than the rest of the region based off of observational data. With a more steady southeasterly wind not expected until later in the afternoon, temperatures during the Advisory period for today are expected to be similar to yesterdays values. With the previously stated mid level ridge, no precipitation is expected across the region for today. Going into the second half of the weekend, the main upper level ridge will shift east of the Panhandles bringing southwesterly mid level flow into the region which will then shift to more of a zonal flow during the second half of Sunday. A perturbation in the mean 700-500 hPa flow with good diffluent flow in-conjunction with the positioning of the dryline across the western Panhandles should help generate some diurnal showers and thunderstorms across the central and western Panhandles and then move east into the eastern Panhandles into the early morning hours on Monday. High temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in the lower to upper 90s across the region. An upper level disturbance moving into the central Rockies during the first half of the coming week along with perturbations in the mean mid level flow along dryline positioning will help generate several chances of diurnal thunderstorms mainly across the northern and eastern Panhandles w.r.t to the positioning of the upper level system and dryline through Wednesday. Toward the end of the forecast period, an upper level ridge building northeast from Mexico along with a deepening trough across the western CONUS should increase our mid level southwesterly flow toward the end of the work week. High temperatures throughout the week will remain above average. Went above guidance by the end of the coming week with a strong southwesterly flow, temperatures may reach the mid 100's by Thursday and Friday. Meccariello && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Palo Duro Canyon. OK...None. && $$ 15/29