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Office: TSA

FXUS64 KTSA 172334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018


The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.


The latest HRRR is hinting at the potential for some valley fog at
FSM tonight. Since FYV is prone to valley fog as well, especially
after the recent rain event, have inserted tempo groups at both
sites for IFR fog around midnight into the early morning hours.
Increasing high cloud overcast and south to southeast winds
should lead to its demise Sunday morning. The HRRR also suggests
that the initial northwestward surge of low clouds/moisture will
miss our area to our west initially on Sunday. Given some
uncertainty, few to sct low cloud groups were maintained in the E
OK TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail for the most part on Sunday,
with potential for low end VFR cigs by the end of the day. Strong,
gusty S winds will also prevail on Sunday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

A rather unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the next
week, with several rounds of much needed rainfall expected.
Despite the overnight rainfall, fire danger will be a concern
Sunday as gusty southerly winds develop, and temperatures warm
into the 60s. Low level moisture will rapidly return north Sunday
afternoon and evening, and scattered elevated convection may
develop overnight Sunday night and persist into Monday evening.

The most widespread and heaviest rainfall is expected late Monday
night and Tuesday as a strong cold front drops south across the
area. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible,
but locally heavy rainfall looks to be the main concern.

Some drier air will work into parts of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday
night, but an upper level disturbance will spread light
precipitation back over the area during the day Wednesday. Surface
temperatures will likely remain below freezing across the northern
part of the forecast area, so the precipitation will fall as light
freezing rain in that area.

A warming trend will develop Thursday and last into the weekend,
but unsettled weather will continue, with rain chances returning
Thursday night into the weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.


TUL   35  63  57  71 /   0   0  40  50
FSM   34  62  54  71 /   0   0  40  50
MLC   36  63  58  70 /   0  10  40  50
BVO   29  64  55  73 /   0   0  40  50
FYV   28  59  53  67 /   0   0  40  50
BYV   31  60  52  68 /   0   0  40  50
MKO   35  63  56  70 /   0   0  40  50
MIO   32  62  54  69 /   0   0  40  50
F10   36  63  57  70 /   0   0  40  50
HHW   38  62  56  72 /   0  10  40  50





Office: OUN FXUS64 KOUN 172348 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 548 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 .DISCUSSION... Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below. && .AVIATION... Have high confidence in VFR conditions at all sites before 09 UTC Sunday. After 09 UTC, confidence is increasing that worsening conditions will occur across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas. Believe that MVFR or lower conditions will move northward and arrive at sites east of KLTS-KCSM-KAVK 09-15 UTC. KWWR and KGAG may also be affected by MVFR or lower conditions, though confidence is too low to mention these lower conditions at these two sites. Even IFR/LIFR conditions with BR/FG could occur near KOKC, KOUN, KSPS, and KLAW 12-16 UTC. All sites should become MVFR or better after 18 UTC Sunday. Chances for -RA are too low to mention at any TAF site at this time. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... Overnight, patchy fog may develop across southeastern and south central Oklahoma where the wind will remain light overnight. Low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado on Sunday, which will result in moisture return from southern and central Texas. A rather windy day is expected which will increase fire weather concerns, especially northwestern Oklahoma. Drier air may remain through the afternoon which will result in afternoon humidity between 25-30 percent, perhaps lower. A fire weather watch will be issued for a few counties in northwest Oklahoma. At this time, it appears that rather warm 85h temperatures will keep elevated convection chances rather low Sunday into Monday. Most of the precipitation will be east and south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The exception may be south central and southeastern Oklahoma. A dryline will push to around Highway 81 Monday afternoon, perhaps farther east. A rather narrow axis of higher instability is expected along and just east of the dryline Monday afternoon. Surface/boundary layer convection will likely remained capped through the afternoon. Better chances or rain and elevated storms will arrive Monday night into Tuesday as a western trough approaches. This should also coincide with a few embedded disturbances moving through increasing southwest flow aloft. Additional rain and some storms may develop along a cold front which is expected to move across most of western and central Oklahoma during the day Tuesday. As colder air filters into the state behind the front, there may be an opportunity for rain to change to freezing rain across central and south central Oklahoma late Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances will increase again by Friday of next week as another trough develops/moves across the western United States. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 37 64 58 73 / 0 10 20 30 Hobart OK 38 71 57 77 / 0 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 40 71 61 79 / 0 20 30 20 Gage OK 38 72 54 75 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 34 62 56 73 / 0 10 20 30 Durant OK 41 59 58 69 / 0 30 30 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for OKZ004-005-009-010. TX...None. && $$ 23/17
Office: AMA FXUS64 KAMA 172320 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 520 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Winds after around 15Z Sunday will begin to increase out of the SW sustained 0f 25-30 kts with gusts near 40 kts continuing to the end of the TAF period. BKN to some OVC skies above 10 kft will keep cigs at VFR throughout the TAF period for all sites. Meccariello && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 458 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... One interesting tidbit is the fact the Amarillo area dry streak has ended. Last night the Amarillo airport received one hundredth of an inch of rainfall. This being the lowest "measurable" amount. However, it should be noted that this is still an unfortunate drought across the Panhandles. Much of the forecast area has received little-to-no moisture the last few months. Drought conditions should still be considered across the Panhandles until we receive some appreciable amount of moisture. With that in mind, the main concern for this forecast package will be fire weather potential the next couple of days due to breezy/windy conditions Sunday and Monday combined with low relative humidity values. Confidence for moisture is low the next 7 days with this forecast package. In other words, we have a dry forecast package in place at this time across the Panhandles. Beginning with Sunday's fire weather potential (see the Fire Weather section below for more details) there will be a Red Flag in place across northwestern parts of the forecast area. In addition, there will be a Fire Weather Watch around the warning area to encapsulate the overall threat Sunday. Forecast soundings for Sunday show a deep dry layer near the surface, with deep mixing into an area with strong wind speeds. Also, there will be a strong pressure gradient across the Panhandles Sunday as low pressure builds in to southern parts of the Central plains which will result in strong winds. Given the breezy/strong winds possible Sunday combined with dry conditions there will be a threat for fire weather across northwestern parts of the forecast area. One thing to note is the fact dewpoints have not been resolved very well lately in the models, and there has been a bias towards higher dewpoints. This has been a problem, even with the initialization of the models, so confidence 24 hours out is not all that high at this time. As a result, trended towards the drier solution of the models and even pushed these numbers down manually for dewpoints both Sunday and Monday. Until the models resolve dewpoints better there is little faith in the dewpoints and hence the relative humidities, but its believe this is the best way to go and gives a better picture for the next couple of days. On Monday, there will be a similar setup (dry low levels and deep mixing) combined with low relative humidities. There are currently no headlines/products for Monday due to the focus on Sunday at this time; however, there is a good chance for at least elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the forecast area. Stay tuned. FIRE WEATHER... For Sunday, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for northwestern parts of the forecast area. Even with the moisture last night we have not rebounded from the drought in any appreciable fashion for much of the forecast area. It is believed favorable fuels should be in place tomorrow afternoon where no rainfall occurred last night, or basically northwestern portions of the forecast area. This combined with breezy to strong wind speeds and low relative humidity values will result in critical fire weather conditions across the northwest. Elsewhere across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles elevated fire weather conditions are in place. Please see the latest fire weather products for more information. Monday will be similar in the sense we will have breezy to strong wind speeds and low relative humidities. RH values may not be as low compared to Sunday, but given the strong wind speeds there could be elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Panhandles Monday afternoon. Guerrero && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the following zones: Hansford...Lipscomb...Moore... Ochiltree...Oldham. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Sunday for the following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the following zones: Beaver. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Sunday for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 29/29