FXUS64 KTSA 140524
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1124 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Next frontal
boundary is working its way across the Plains with mid-level
cloudiness beginning to build into northern OK. Cloud deck will
encompass northeast OK and northwest AR terminals and may drop south
into KMLC and KFSM. Winds will become northwesterly by morning but
is expected to remain below 12kt.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 934 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/
Currently wide range in temps observed across the area as calm
winds ahead of the next frontal boundary have allowed a quick
temp drop. Updated forecast will incorporate observed trends
however temps will rebound once the winds pick up and will not be
too aggressive with lowering overnight mins.
FXUS64 KOUN 140355
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
955 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
High and mid clouds will develop ahead of a shortwave
trough tonight and Thursday, especially across the northern
half of Oklahoma. A light to moderate northerly wind will
prevail over the next 18-24 hours.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/
Variable high clouds will move over Oklahoma and north
Texas through the TAF period. A light northerly wind will prevail
tonight and will increase in speed on Thursday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/
Impactful weather over the next several days is centered around
fire weather. Although, the weather/fuel environment does not
currently seem to support significant fire weather concern (see
details in fire weather section below). Otherwise, temperatures
will be normal to occasionally above normal for mid-December. One
low-medium probability precipitation opportunity will occur for
mainly eastern portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Changes to the previous forecast were minimal.
Within northwesterly flow across the middle part of the country, a
weak shortwave is passing through. A band of cirrus across northern
Oklahoma early this afternoon is coincident with weak ascent
associated with this shortwave. This wave has sent a cold front into
the area today resulting in an increase in gusty northerly winds as
There have been a few reports from northwest Oklahoma of some smoke
and this doesn't appear to be due to any local wildfire activity,
rather MODIS satellite suggests it is probably from the Legion Lake
fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota.
A more intense shortwave trough will move through tomorrow forcing a
more significant cold surge into the area early in the day. High
temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees colder.
Latest model runs show a persistent trough in the east and
diminishing Rex Block pattern with slowly deamplifying ridge in the
west through the end of the week. This will support a continuation
of dry northwesterly flow aloft across our region. Notable changes
on the synoptic scale occur by Saturday. A closed low, now over
northern Baja California, will open up and eject northeastward in
response to deepening longwave trough in the west. Despite PWAT
values being significantly below normal now across Texas into the
western Gulf, modest moisture return will occur quickly in
response to this lead shortwave and should be enough for some
showers across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the area Saturday
night through early Sunday. Instability will be very weak at
best, possibly supporting a few weak thunderstorms as well.
Eastward progression of this longwave is where uncertainties arise.
Deterministic guidance is as much as 24 hours out of phase.
Generally, ECMWF and its ensemble mean are much quicker than the GFS
and most of its ensembles. If the GFS/GEFS is right, this could
offer another low probability precipitation event for the eastern
portions of the area sometime around Monday, but we have kept the
forecast dry for now given significant uncertainty.
Some fire activity will remain possible through this afternoon.
Latest Oklahoma mesonet observations show relative humidity
values around or below 20 percent for most of the area, and around
10-15 mph northerly winds behind the southward moving cold front.
This is resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather
As mentioned above, a smoke smell may occur behind the cold front
moving through the state now. This smoke seems to be originating
from the Legion Lake fire in the Black Hills.
Latest shortwave band satellite imagery reveals one hotspot and
probable fire in western Love County. Local media reports and KTLX
radar indicate a minor fire in south OKC. No other ongoing
activity is known at this time, but additional initial attack
activity is certainly possible through the afternoon.
Cooler temperatures and comparatively higher relative humidity
should limit fire concerns tomorrow, and although humidity will be
lower Friday, winds should remain fairly light. The next fire
weather day is expected to be Saturday when gusty southerly winds
begin before a surge of low level moisture arrives. Elevated fire
weather conditions may result. Latest ERC-G values in western
Oklahoma where near or slightly above the 90th percentile which
would tend to enhance fire activity even if only marginal
meteorological conditions are realized.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 35 47 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 33 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 34 53 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 29 49 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 32 47 28 51 / 0 0 10 0
Durant OK 36 53 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
FXUS64 KAMA 140547 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1147 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
For the 06Z TAFs, a minor upper level low pressure system will
move across the area Thursday accompanied by an increase in mid
and high level clouds. A few snow flurries or light snow showers
may also develop Thursday morning across the northwest sections of
the OK and TX Panhandles with KGUY and KDHT possibly being
impacted. However, the probability of this happening is low, and
have omitted from this fcst cycle.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/
For the 00Z TAFs, a minor upper level low pressure system will
move across the area late tonight and Thursday accompanied by an
increase in mid and high level clouds. A few snow flurries or
light snow showers may also develop Thursday morning across the
northwest sections of the OK and TX Panhandles with KGUY and KDHT
possibly being impacted. However, the probability of this
happening is low, and have omitted from this fcst cycle.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 235 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/
No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Main day
of concern will be Saturday, when elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected. See below.
Post-frontal surface high pressure ridge builds into the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles tonight, with clouds also increasing from the
north. Low pops for light snow Thursday morning have been
retained for northwest and north-central parts of the forecast
area. No accumulations of significance are expected. Cold air
advection with north winds and clouds will make for a much cooler
day on Thursday, with highs about 5 degrees Fahrenheit below
The next lee trof develops on Friday, with southwest winds bringing
warmer conditions. On Saturday, the lee trof is expected to
deepen rapidly, inducing southwest winds of 20 to 30 MPH, with
highs 10 to 15 degrees above climo. A cold front arrives
Saturday evening and Saturday night, with brisk north winds on
Sunday causing Sunday to be another below-normal day, temperature-
wise. Warming trend expected Monday through Wednesday. 03
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the late
afternoon today across the Panhandles until north winds diminish.
Light to moderate north winds are expected on Thursday. Light to
moderate southwest winds resume on Friday.
Dry southwest winds increase notably on Saturday, leading to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across all of the
Panhandles. Winds will shift to north as a cold front passes
Saturday evening and Saturday night.
Brisk north winds are expected on Sunday. Light to moderate
southwest winds resume on Monday. Light winds are expected on
Tuesday. Light to moderate southwest winds are expected on