ok discuss
Office: TSA
FXUS64 KTSA 010537
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms thru this evening over SE
OK along an outflow boundary, with a limited severe weather
threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
- Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
expected much of the rest of this week with locally heavy
rains, downburst winds, and lightning being the primary
hazards.
- Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of this week
with heat indices generally 95-103 F across the area. Some
minor relief will briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Low to medium shower and storm potential will persist into this
evening as a weak cold front moves through the region. Any ongoing
storms will become increasingly restricted to southern portions of
the forecast area before weakening tonight. Primary hazards will
continue to be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain
leading to flash flooding. Consistent with the HREF, most precip is
expected to have dissipated or exited the forecast area overnight
with gradually clearing skies. Following the front, low temps
will likely be a few degrees cooler than previous nights...
especially for northern portions of the area... generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
The post-frontal airmass will influence temperatures and heat
indices Tuesday and Wednesday, with dewpoints falling into the 60s.
Resulting high temperatures and associated heat indices may struggle
to exceed 90 degrees tomorrow for much of NE OK and NW AR. There
won't be quite as much relief in SE OK and W-Central AR though,
where the HIs could still climb into the mid to upper 90s. There may
be a few showers or isolated storms tomorrow, mainly across SE OK or
W-Central AR, but most locations are likely to stay dry under high
pressure. As the sfc high shifts east Wednesday, southerly flow will
begin to return to the region, providing increasing temps and
moisture through the end of the week. This will keep daily PoPs in
the forecast through the extended period, but with the expectation
that most locations stay dry on any given day through Friday. Heat
indices will also climb back into the 95-105F range as we head into
the holiday weekend.
By Saturday, an upper trough is projected to be moving off of the
Rockies and into the plains states, though there is disagreement
regarding how this will influence rain potential for our area. For
now, NBM PoPs seem reasonable with slight chance to chance category
for much of NE OK and NW AR. The pattern appears to remain unsettled
into early next week with additional rain and storm chances.
Precipitation may could impact temperatures this weekend into next
week, primarily if the wetter scenario plays out. But overall,
expect high in the 90s to persist with heat indices generally
remaining in the upper 90s/ lower 100s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some light fog will be possible towards sunrise, especially at
KFYV.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 68 91 71 / 0 0 20 10
FSM 92 72 93 71 / 20 0 30 0
MLC 90 69 92 71 / 10 10 20 10
BVO 88 64 89 67 / 0 0 20 10
FYV 88 65 89 66 / 10 0 20 10
BYV 87 64 89 66 / 10 0 10 0
MKO 88 68 89 70 / 10 0 30 10
MIO 86 65 88 67 / 0 0 20 10
F10 88 68 90 71 / 10 10 30 10
HHW 91 72 92 72 / 20 0 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
Office: OUN
FXUS64 KOUN 010341
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1041 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 930 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight south, but
severe weather potential is decreasing.
- Low (10-30%) chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week into the weekend.
- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
most afternoons.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Convection continues to push southward, although a big area of
anvil precipitation has spread northeast across south central and
southeastern Oklahoma. Updated forecast to lower POPs north
overnight with the current trends and to update hourly temperature
grids due to the widespread area of rain-cooler air that has
spread across much of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Storms are expected to develop along an outflow boundary this
afternoon and evening, generally south of I-40. With sufficient
instability, high PWATs, and little wind shear (resulting in pulse
storms with little movement), downbursts and localized flooding will
again be the main risks with these storms, though some hail with the
stronger storms cannot be ruled out as well. This activity is
expected to shift south through the evening and dissipate overnight.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
By Tuesday morning, most of our rain chances will have shifted
southward leaving only low chances mainly across southern Oklahoma
and north Texas. Timing-wise, this would include any lingering
showers in the morning followed by any redevelopment in the
afternoon. That being said, most of the CAMs keep us dry all day.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler with highs primarily
in the upper 80s to low 90s (due to the passage of a cold front the
night before).
Temperatures start gradually warming back up on Wednesday. Ridging
will keep us mostly dry, though we will still maintain some low
chances for rain.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
The center of the upper ridge will reposition itself to our south
and east mid to late week, allowing for low chances of showers and
storms to continue through the end of week. A trough is forecast to
cross the area by the weekend, which may bring more widespread
shower and storm activity to the region, though models disagree
somewhat on the strength and timing of this trough. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal average through the end of the week,
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, then warm into the mid to
upper 90s by the weekend.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Areas of rain/thunder continue to slowly dissipate near and south
of the Red River, with some potential for (brief) impact at KSPS
& KDUA through 08 UTC. However, category reduction is not
anticipated with ongoing activity.
Otherwise, light and variable surface flow and mid/high clouds can
be expected through much of the period. There is low potential for
daytime thunder at KSPS on Tuesday afternoon, though PROB30
mentions appear appropriate given conditional nature of concern
here.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 87 70 89 / 20 10 20 20
Hobart OK 70 89 70 92 / 20 20 30 20
Wichita Falls TX 71 91 73 94 / 70 20 10 10
Gage OK 67 87 67 88 / 10 10 30 20
Ponca City OK 68 87 67 88 / 0 0 10 20
Durant OK 73 92 73 95 / 80 20 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 010542
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the
holiday week with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any storm
could produce very heavy rain leading to localized flooding.
-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms for the holiday will
see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower
90s.
-More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the
holiday weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
As of late tonight, latest satellite and radar imagery was seeing
showers develop just a county our two south of the Panhandles.
Latest CAM analysis does suggest that some of these shower could
sneak their way into the southern Panhandles for the overnight.
However, confidence has been low in these chances as latest 0Z
sounding and present cloud cover suggests the atmosphere is well
capped for the night. Still, we could see a weak shower slide in
as it is dissipating, so have left some chances of precipitation
for the overnight. Regardless, tomorrow will see a more stagnate
pattern push in with model agreement seeing a new upper-level high
pressure system move in. Active weather still remains possible
for the afternoon as the building high pressure looks to shift the
present axis of moisture to our south further north. This will
allow for our PWAT values to jump back to values above 1.5 inches
again, which, with the aid of a little instability, can create
heavy rainfall across the southern Panhandles. However on the
severe side of things, latest CAMs are not too enthusiastic with
most projecting MLCAPE values below 1500 J/kg and little to no
effective bulk shear to keep storms organized. Regardless, this
process looks to repeat on Wednesday with a trough starting to
come onshore along the West Coast to give us a little extra nudge.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Progressing into Thursday and the holiday weekend will see the
main upper-level trough push across the Western United States and
break down the present high pressure system. This initial troughs
will help provide enough instability to keep 15 to 30% chances of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. As for
severe chances, potential is present with the trough opening us up
to slightly better wind shear, but the actual scale is still a
bit too far out to get the full scope. Thankfully a brief break
does look to follow for the Independence Day Holiday with the exit
of the incoming trough. However, more chances look for follow
that weekend with a secondary trough following Saturday into
Sunday. Of course these chances will also come with the threat of
severe weather, but confidence is mixed given the necessary
mesoscale factors are not too clear at this time. Regardless these
chances will aid in keeping temperature down with afternoon highs
staying in the 80s to low 90s clear into the holiday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will start variable, and become more southeasterly at
5-10 kts. Watching for VCTS conditions as well at all TAF sites
through 06Z, and then again from around 14-15Z through to the end
of the TAF period.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29
FXUS64 KAMA 010552
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the
holiday week with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any storm
could produce very heavy rain leading to localized flooding.
-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms for the holiday will
see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower
90s.
-More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the
holiday weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
As of late tonight, latest satellite and radar imagery was seeing
showers develop just a county our two south of the Panhandles.
Latest CAM analysis does suggest that some of these shower could
sneak their way into the southern Panhandles for the overnight.
However, confidence has been low in these chances as latest 0Z
sounding and present cloud cover suggests the atmosphere is well
capped for the night. Still, we could see a weak shower slide in
as it is dissipating, so have left some chances of precipitation
for the overnight. Regardless, tomorrow will see a more stagnate
pattern push in with model agreement seeing a new upper-level high
pressure system move in. Active weather still remains possible
for the afternoon as the building high pressure looks to shift the
present axis of moisture to our south further north. This will
allow for our PWAT values to jump back to values above 1.5 inches
again, which, with the aid of a little instability, can create
heavy rainfall across the southern Panhandles. However on the
severe side of things, latest CAMs are not too enthusiastic with
most projecting MLCAPE values below 1500 J/kg and little to no
effective bulk shear to keep storms organized. Regardless, this
process looks to repeat on Wednesday with a trough starting to
come onshore along the West Coast to give us a little extra nudge.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Progressing into Thursday and the holiday weekend will see the
main upper-level trough push across the Western United States and
break down the present high pressure system. This initial troughs
will help provide enough instability to keep 15 to 30% chances of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. As for
severe chances, potential is present with the trough opening us up
to slightly better wind shear, but the actual scale is still a
bit too far out to get the full scope. Thankfully a brief break
does look to follow for the Independence Day Holiday with the exit
of the incoming trough. However, more chances look for follow
that weekend with a secondary trough following Saturday into
Sunday. Of course these chances will also come with the threat of
severe weather, but confidence is mixed given the necessary
mesoscale factors are not too clear at this time. Regardless these
chances will aid in keeping temperature down with afternoon highs
staying in the 80s to low 90s clear into the holiday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites with winds generally 5
to 15 kts out of the east to southeast. PROB30s have all been
pulled from the TAFs as confidence is decreasing in storms,
especially for KGUY and KDHT. Still doesn't mean showers/storms
aren't possible, but at this time will either reintroduce them at
the 12z issuance if confidence increases, or we'll deal with via
amendments. Overall, the time for storms to start would be 15z
onward, but again, low confidence, so no mention.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89
