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Office: CLE

FXUS61 KCLE 141144
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clipper storm system will be east of the area early this
morning. This will allow a weak area of high pressure to move
across the region this afternoon. THe next clipper will cross
the region Friday into Friday night then lake effect snow
lingering across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still some lighter snow showers across the area but any
additional snow amounts should only be around an inch. The
earlier concerns about the band off of Lake Huron have
decreased. While we believe we will see some lake effect develop
across Lake Erie it appears that with the changing wind
directions the bands will not be able to persist at any
location. The better chances will likely end up being across
Erie County, PA as the winds become west to southwest late this
afternoon into the evening.

In any event we will cancel all snow headlines.

Previous Discussion...
Just waiting on the last of the snow to decrease and move
eastward through 12Z. The expectation is that we will be able to
cancel most of the warning and advisory by 12Z. Will monitor
the band off the lake as it drifts eastward in the wake of the
clipper. At most another inch or 2 of snow at a few locations.

We then get a weak area of high pressure into the area this
afternoon with any remaining lake snow shifting back into
western NY by midnight. Currently it does not look like it will
become all that organized so significant accumulations look
unlikely. However as always the case with west to southwest flow
we will need to monitor locations in the vicinity of Northeast,
PA.

The next clipper will move toward the area on Friday with snow
chances increasing Friday afternoon into the evening. This low
will track further to the north across Ontario so lighter
accumulations are anticipated. Worst case scenario brings the
snowbelt an advisory.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today into
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The latest arctic surge behind the latest clipper will produce lake
enhanced that will taper down by Sat. However, a band of warm
advection snow is expected to develop over the snowbelt for Sat then
should dissipate into Sat night as drier air pushes in from the
southwest. Accumulation looks to range from 2 to 5 inches in Erie co
PA Fri night tapering down to little or none southwest of a LPR to
CAK line. On Sat, the accumulation in the snowbelt will range from
little to around an inch in NW PA.

Below normal temps Fri night into Sat will start to moderate some by
Sat night as the warm advection starts to occur at the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models briefly show the upper trough that has dominated the area
becoming more zonal and progressive for the period but also have
differences. Thus, not confident in how things will play out as
weaker s/w troughs move across the region affecting the timing of
precip. Temps Sun and Mon are borderline for either rain or snow. So
due to the marginally cold enough temps and weak system, don't see
much accumulation if mostly snow occurs. Model consensus shows
enough colder air moving in Tue into Tue night to change all precip
to snow for mainly just lake effect snow showers Tue night and
Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure was located just to the south of Cleveland and
will continue to move eastward through the overnight. The
trailing cold front as of 0530Z was located from Sandusky to
Mount Vernon. All the IFR snowfall was generally located from
the Central Highlands to western PA. Expect this area of snow to
quickly move eastward through 12Z with MVFR ceilings in its
wake. Will have to monitor for some lake effect snow in the wake
of the low but confidence in this developing is low. Ceilings
will improve through the day with all locations becoming low
end VFR by evening.

Winds are south to southeast ahead of the low but quickly snap
around to the north and northwest in its wake. Ther have been
some stronger wind gusts across from Findlay to Mansfield but
believe these gusts to 35 knots will quickly move eastward and
should only impact KCAK through about 08z. Winds will decrease
through the afternoon then gradually shift to the west.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible Friday and Friday night across the area
and again Sunday night into Monday in wintry precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
North winds behind the departing clipper show produce SCA conditions
for a while today then high pressure briefly ridges east into the
lake by late today to lessen the winds. The next clipper will move
across the lakes Fri into Fri night with SW winds becoming WNW while
increasing to 20 to 30 knots. Winds will diminish Sat but wind
direction a little uncertain as a front sets up near the lake by Sat
evening and hangs there thru Sun. Will stay with superblend guidance
which show mostly a south wind Sat night and Sun turning SW then
West Sun night thru Mon as a weak cold front is expected to push
east thru the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Adams



Office: ILN FXUS61 KILN 141145 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will brush the region late Friday. Southerly winds will become established over the weekend which will bring temperatures closer to normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Winds have been decreasing and will continue to do so into the early morning. Thereafter, speeds through the day should be around 10 mph. Satellite imagery shows breaks in the low clouds pushing south across the western part of the forecast area. Appears that the breaks may just be transient at first with clouds predominating through most if not all of the morning. Low clouds will eventually erode but there will be an increase in high clouds late in the day. Temperatures will continue to fall into early to mid morning. Then there will be a slow rise. Forecast highs are on the cool side of guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure over the region at the start of the period will quickly move off to the southeast. Winds will be light and variable. The exception will be in northwest counties where winds will become southerly before daybreak. With temperatures not being all that warm to start, readings could drop off quickly in northern counties before high to mid clouds become more extensive there. Given forecast winds and clouds, expect temperatures to not follow normal diurnal pattern tonight. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Friday with a trailing cold front brushing the forecast area later in the day. This could be enough to generate a few snow showers or perhaps just flurries across the northern tier of counties. Although winds will be south to southwest, not a lot of warming will be going on ahead of the boundary. There should be quite a bit of clouds across all but far southern counties through the day. Stayed at or a bit below guidance for highs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry conditions will start out the long term Friday night through Saturday night. A weak upper level disturbance will be pulling out of the region at the start of the long term. The next chance for precipitation will be on Sunday as a disturbance moves across the region. Along and north of Interstate 70 some snowfall may mix in with rain showers, however the rest of the area will likely just see rain. Another upper level disturbance will move through on Monday keeping precipitation chances in the forecast. Precipitation will taper off Monday evening. Dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the long term Monday night through Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be generally pretty close to normal values for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR deck across most of the region will gradually decrease through the day, generally from northwest to southeast. Bases will slowly lift as well, so those areas below 2000 ft will lift above that level and some places will lift to VFR before scattering. Northwest winds will decrease to 5 to 10 kt early in the period. Winds will become light and variable and start to come around to the south late in the period. Once the lower deck decreases, VFR will prevail with extensive high clouds. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...