oh discuss
Office: CLE
FXUS61 KCLE 152359
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
759 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will depart to the east tonight with a warm front
lifting into the region late tonight into early Wednesday. A
cold front will slowly approach from the west late Wednesday
before crossing the region Thursday. The front will slow over
the Ohio Valley Friday, allowing high pressure to build into
northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the area this afternoon will drift
east tonight, allowing a warm front and shortwave trough to lift
northeast into the region late tonight into early Wednesday.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms may lift northeast into the area
as early as 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday morning with PoPs increasing
further near the I-75 corridor from 8 AM onwards. The most
widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during peak
diurnal instability Wednesday afternoon/evening; all locations
have at least likely PoPs (around 60 to 70 percent) with
categorical PoPs (80+ percent) generally inland from Lake Erie.
As mentioned in previous discussions, a very moist airmass will
be in place across the area with widespread PWAT values of 2-2.1
inches and dew points in the lower 70s anticipated. To provide
context, these PWAT values are near to slightly higher than
daily maximum values for ILN/PBZ sounding climatology. Storms
will likely be progressive, although the high moisture content
will likely result in very heavy rainfall rates and localized
high QPF values. HREF still highlights an area with about a 10%
chance of at least 3 inches of rain in 3 hours across portions
of north-central/northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and this will be the primary
area to monitor for flash flooding. Low-lying, poor drainage,
and urban areas (such as Cleveland, Akron, Canton, and
Youngstown) will be the most vulnerable areas for flooding. A
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains in place from roughly
Vermilion, OH to Mount Gilead, OH eastward with a Marginal Risk
elsewhere.
Bulk shear values will be modest at around 15 to 20 knots,
however MLCAPE values will most likely reach or exceed 1500 J/kg
during peak heating Wednesday. The higher instability in
addition to high moisture content could allow a few stronger
wind gusts to mix to the surface in any robust storms that
manage to develop Wednesday afternoon. A Day 2 Marginal Risk of
severe weather is in place for the entire CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave will generally exit to the east on Wednesday
night, however scattered showers and thunderstorms (and
possibly heavy rainfall) may persist across NE OH/NW PA into
Wednesday night. An upper trough and surface cold front will
likely cross the local area Thursday with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front during the day.
Have largely maintained the previous forecast, but there's still
quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement/coverage and overall
chances of showers/storms. Changes to the forecast for Thursday
afternoon/evening are possible, especially if guidance
continues to trend drier and/or the main precip axis continues
to shift southeast of the CWA. Strong thunderstorms and flooding
are possible along/ahead of the frontal boundary.
The front will slow over the Ohio Valley late Thursday into
Friday and high pressure will build into the region Friday
morning through Friday night. Most locations should experience
dry weather during this time, although a few showers/storms may
graze locations south of U.S. Route 30 Friday afternoon.
High temps will be in the 80s Thursday with a notable cooldown
expected towards the end of the week. Friday's highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the cooler upper
50s to lower 60s Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather will return over the weekend as a warm front
lifts into the region in response to low pressure moving east
across the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the warm
sector Saturday/Sunday with PoPs tapering off as the low's cold
front crosses the local area at some point Sunday or early
Monday. A quieter weather pattern may unfold early next week,
but uncertainty in the timing and placement of the front
warrants continued PoPs through Tuesday.
High temperatures will generally be in the lower 80s this
weekend into early next week, although temps may begin to trend
a bit warmer by Tuesday. Expect lows in the 60s each night with
lower 70s possible Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR will prevail tonight, but rapidly increasing moisture from
southwest to northeast as a weak area of low pressure lifts into
the region will start to generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms by daybreak. Latest trends suggest that two
distinct rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. One
in the 12 to 18Z timeframe that moves generally west to east
across the region, and another in the 18Z to 00Z timeframe that
again moves generally west to east through the region. However,
brief showers/storms are possible between these rounds, and
overall timing confidence remains low to medium. Tried to time
TEMPO groups based on the latest thinking. Any of the
thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall rates, dropping
cigs and visibilities to IFR at times. Gusty winds are possible
in the thunderstorms as well, mainly with the mid to late
afternoon round in NE Ohio and NW PA due to the daytime heating
maximum. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease
Wednesday evening, with primarily VFR returning.
Mainly light and variable winds tonight will turn S to SW at
5-10 knots by mid morning Wednesday, with S to SW winds of 5-10
knots then continuing through the day.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lingering showers and
thunderstorms across the south and southeast portion of the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. VFR expected Friday before Non-
VFR chances return Saturday and Sunday in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Main concern for the marine period will be on Thursday as a cold
front crosses Lake Erie, ushering in west to northwest winds of
15 to 20 knots. Confidence is increasing for waves of 3 to
perhaps 4 feet across the central and eastern basins. Just short
of Small Craft Advisory at this time, but will continue to
monitor trends. Otherwise, flow across Lake Erie is expected to
be 10 knots or less. Thunderstorms will impact Lake Erie
Wednesday afternoon and evening which could produce gusty
winds. Additional chances for thunderstorms impacting Lake Erie
will return for the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kahn
Office: ILN
FXUS61 KILN 152344
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
744 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will linger across the area through the week and
into the weekend, keeping the threat for daily showers and
thunderstorms. A seasonably warm and humid pattern will also continue.
This active pattern with numerous rounds of showers and storms,
especially Wednesday through the weekend, may bring the potential
for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
While precip will become isolated overnight, the main shortwave
approaches portions of northern KY by daybreak, so precip chances
will increase again in this area after 09z. PWs do increase to over 2
inches or into the 90th percentile, which does raise some concern
for heavy rain late tonight and into Wednesday, though overall storm
movement is expected to remain progressive. Overnight lows in the
lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the shortwave moves through the area on Wednesday, showers and
storms will become more widespread. This, along with a surge of 2
inch+ PWs, does increase concern for additional swaths of heavy
rain, which could create 12-24 hour accumulations of 2 inches or
more. This will raise the potential for localized flooding
especially in southern Ohio/northern KY and SE Indiana.
Highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow will continue aloft through the weekend. As it does, a
cold front will sag south across the Ohio Valley Thursday into
Friday before lifting back to the north as a warm front Saturday
into Sunday.
Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to
lower 90s on Saturday. As we destabilize through the day, widespread
showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. There remains some uncertainty as to just how far
south the front will make it through the day on Friday. This will
determine pcpn chances Friday afternoon into the evening. As of now,
it looks like the best chance for showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front will be across our south, closer to the
front, with chances likely dropping off fairly quickly farther to
the north. Temperatures will also be dependent on the placement of
the front but for now will range highs on Friday from the upper 70s
north to the mid 80s south.
Pcpn chances will then continue at times through the weekend as the
boundary lifts back to the north. There will likely be some diurnal
enhancement to the the pcpn during the afternoon/evenings as we
destabilize. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Quasi-zonal flow will persist into early next week. Will therefore
linger some pcpn chances on through the remainder of the long term
period. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to
upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There will be plenty of cloud cover through much of the period, but
for the most part ceilings are forecast to be VFR. Main concern will
be for convection. At this point, there are a few time periods when
there may be better focus for showers and thunderstorms. there are
indications that some activity may develop after 06Z over the area
which should primarily be a threat to KCMH/KLCK. Then a disturbance
will push northeast across the region after 12Z bringing the
potential for storms to the other terminals. In the wake of that,
there is one more chance of storms moving across the region between
17Z and 22Z. Winds will be light southerly tonight and then veer to
the south southwest and strengthen to 10 kt or more during the day.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
065.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
