Office: CLE
FXUS61 KCLE 261712
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
112 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east of the Great Lakes region today
and then move off the New England coast tonight. A warm
front will lift across the area late tonight into Saturday
followed by a cold front Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM...Broken high clouds are beginning to arrive from the
west as temperatures continue to warm into the 60s and perhaps
lower 70s by later this afternoon. A lake breeze has developed
and is readily seen on radar, roughly drawn from Cleveland and
westward towards NW OH. This is impacting high temperatures
further inland than originally expected and thus temperatures
across areas west of Cleveland and along and north of the I-80
corridor have likely already experienced their highs for today.
Previous discussion...
High pressure centered over Upstate New York this morning is
still in control of our weather pattern this morning. We are
starting off this morning with frosty conditions under clear
skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 30s away from the
immediate lakeshore. We will allow the ongoing frost and freeze
headlines to run through 9 am this morning.
High pressure east of the eastern Great Lakes region will move
off the New England coast by tonight. Light easterly winds this
morning will become southeasterly during the day with a return
of milder weather coming back into the region. An upper level
ridge track across the Ohio Valley today and this evening. Skies
will start out clear this morning but high and mid level clouds
will increase from west to east later today into this evening.
High temperatures will be on the upswing today climbing into the
middle 60s to lower 70s.
A low pressure system will track through the Upper Midwest into
the western Great Lakes region tonight and Saturday. A warm
front will lift northward across the region tonight. Scattered
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of that advancing warm front tonight into early Saturday.
No organized or severe convection is expected but a few rumbles
of thunder could be possible late tonight and early Saturday
morning.
After the warm front moves through the region Saturday morning,
the temperatures will really warm up by Saturday afternoon. The
area will be in a deep southerly and humid low level flow. Skies
will start our mostly cloudy Saturday morning but become partly
cloudy by the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the upper
70s to near 80 degrees across NWOH. Lower to middle 70s are
expected across NEOH and upper 60s for NWPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
There will be some low confidence rain chances for Saturday night
into Sunday with a warm front lifting north of the region and
isentropic lift/moisture advection into the area will present some
opportunity to generate some convection. With a strong ridge
emerging into the region, believe that the trend with the first part
of the period will be dry. Warm air advection into the region will
be efficient for Sunday into Monday with the upper ridge and
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some of the
record temperatures across the area on Sunday and Monday are in the
lower 80s and could be reached. An upper trough will progress
eastward across the central CONUS on Monday and try to shift the
upper ridge east, allowing the next system to reach the area. While
some ensemble members are allowing precipitation into the area
during the daytime hours on Monday, the pattern will likely be
slower to develop with the ridge strength across the eastern CONUS
and have the highest PoPs reflected for Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period will be fairly standard for the end of April
into early May with temperatures a touch above normal in the 70s and
intermittent rain chances with several shortwaves moving through the
Great Lakes region. The best rain chances through the period will be
early on Tuesday as the first main trough will move through the
local area with a cold front that will allow for temperatures to be
a touch cooler than the weekend. Wednesday could end up being a
drier day of the period with some ridging aloft before the next wave
enters for Thursday. However, there are confidence concerns on the
timing of the pattern, so have some low PoPs at a minimum daily.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with mainly VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Outside of ERI, confidence is
low on rain coverage and intensity (and therefore impacts due
to vsbys) associated with a warm front tonight into Saturday
morning. Trended more optimistic with this TAF package as
ceilings should remain above 5kft with the exception of YNG and
ERI.
Winds are generally out of the east to southeast this afternoon,
around 10 knots. A lake breeze will likely impact CLE this
afternoon which should briefly shift flow out of the north, 5 to
10 knots. Otherwise, winds will gradually shift more towards the
southeast overnight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with periodic
gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Winds will continue to
gradually shift more southerly on Saturday, increasing slightly
to around 15 knots with periodic gusts of 25 to perhaps 30
knots. The highest confidence for wind gusts to reach or exceed
30 knots overnight and into Saturday will be at ERI.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. Non-VFR is most
likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday
with a cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure northeast of Lake Erie will promote easterly winds
today. Winds will be the strongest over the west end of the lake
with the long fetch of the lake. The surface high will move east
tonight into Saturday as a warm front will move across the lake.
Strong southeast flow will overtake the lake late tonight into
Saturday and the strength of the winds could necessitate a Small
Craft Advisory headline. The front will lift north of the region for
the weekend and winds will become southwesterly and decrease through
Sunday. A cold front will approach the lake for Monday night and
southwest winds will increase slightly again. Winds will shift to be
a bit more westerly behind the front for the middle of the week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Sefcovic
Office: ILN
FXUS61 KILN 261739
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
139 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift to the east coast with a warm front
lifting north through the area tonight. Precipitation chances
will develop this afternoon, and increase tonight as the warm
front moves through the region. Warm temperatures in store for
Ohio Valley this weekend with mainly dry weather conditions. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure over New England is continuing to move
east, as a mid-level ridge axis moves eastward into the Ohio
Valley. The boundary layer remains fairly dry, with dewpoints in
the 30s, but southeasterly flow will bring a little more
moisture into the area by afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly
flow aloft will be a little more well-defined, and this can
already be seen with a band of showers extending from north of
St. Louis to east of Nashville. Eventually, some of this
precipitation will pivot northeast into the ILN CWA, though
recent model runs have not been particularly robust with
coverage. Will keep PoPs generally in the 30-50 percent range
for now for this afternoon and early evening, though this may be
generous for some areas.
Previous discussion >
Large area of surface high pressure centered over southeast
Canada to shift off to the east coast today.
High level clouds spilling over upstream mid/upper level ridge
will be thickest over the southwest this morning. Where mostly
clear skies will be observed over the northeast - temperatures
will drop to lows in the mid and mid 30s. Frost development will
be possible over the northeast and have continued frost
advisory thru 9 AM.
Upstream mid level ridge axis to build east across the area
today with southwesterly flow developing on its back side.
Moisture to increase with a band of showers (with possibly some
embedded thunderstorms) moving into the area late in the
afternoon and into the evening. Have limited pops to chance
category thru the daylight hours.
Temperatures to warm up today prior to thicker clouds and pcpn
moving in during the late afternoon. Highs to range from the
upper 60s northwest to the to upper 70s southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms to pivot northeast
thru the area this evening in a region of favorable low level
theta-e advection. The best coverage of pcpn will occur across
west central Ohio this evening where more favorable forcing will
be located. Behind this initial band of showers, a chance for
rain will continue but coverage will be more limited. Mild lows
generally in the upper 50s.
In warm sector the favorable forcing shifts to the north with
pcpn chances diminishing by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
warm around 10 degrees above normal with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to around 80. Breezy conditions develop with south
winds gusting up to 35 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 ridge will be fairly expansive across the eastern CONUS to start
the period. Further ridge amplification/height rises will occur on
Sunday, promoting warmer daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Some
weak instability will be present in this warm/humid air mass, but no
synoptic forcing will really be present. However, will have to see
if CAMs try to initialize any pcpn that would be diurnally driven.
Ridge axis nudges eastward on Monday, with a shortwave trough
working its way through the Midwest region. Clouds increase from the
west throughout the day, with PoPs increasing substantially Monday
night into Tuesday. QPF footprint not overly impressive with this
system given the progressive nature of the shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front. Weak cold front swings through early
on Tuesday, moderating temperatures slightly. Most of the CWA will
still observe daytime highs in the middle 70s to near 80.
Weak ridging returns on Wednesday, keeping an unstable air mass in
place across the region. This will provide at least a chance of PoPs
across the Ohio Valley. Another shortwave trough will begin carving
its way through the Upper Plains on Thursday, which will eventually
work its way into our region. This will increase chances for
showers/storms in our fa.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some showers
will move through the region tonight, with a slight chance of a
brief MVFR period, but prevailing conditions should remain VFR.
In fact, it is not a certainty that all TAF sites will even see
any rain. The highest chances appear to be at KDAY, where a
mention of SHRA may need to be added. Overnight, there will be a
period of LLWS for KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN.
Tomorrow, southerly winds will increase, with gusts of above
25kts expected at all TAF sites. A very isolated shower could
occur, but most locations will remain dry.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hatzos
