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Office: CLE

FXUS61 KCLE 211808
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
108 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system moving into southern Quebec will drag a cold
front through the region on today. Arctic high pressure will
build over the eastern lakes on Thanksgiving. High pressure will
remain in control on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front starting to push south of Lake Erie. Thus far today
snow has been of poor quality as we lose mid-level moisture and
are seeing more of a snow/drizzle mix. Have cut back on
accumulations and expect it to be hard to accumulate. Have added
freezing drizzle for a few hours this afternoon to areas that
are forecast to drop below the freezing mark. This window for
freezing drizzle will be fairly brief as we cool enough by this
evening to see ice nuclei return to the cloud and a switch back
over to light snow.

Original...Wednesday begins with low pressure in southeast
Ontario with a cold front extending wsw across southern Lower MI
to Chicago. The front will continue south and by 18z should be
just south of the CWA. The airmass behind the front is fairly
cold, especially for this time of year, although the coldest air
will impact New England vs the OH Valley. Still however, do
expect lake effect snow showers to develop east of KCLE. BUFKIT
forecast soundings show the best profiles actually ahead of the
front due to the fact that there will be more synoptic moisture
in place across the region. Instability is "conditional" however
winds to veer from wsw to northwest which should be disruptive
to any long band development. For the afternoon into the
evening, winds continue to veer from wnw to north as the airmass
dries. Given the veering winds and afternoon drying, will have
roughly a 1 to 3 inch snowfall forecast for the snowbelt today
through tonight. Temps at 850mb drop to -18C overnight. Will
have chance pops at best for the snowbelt through the first half
of the night however given such dry air in the region. Thursday
high pressure will build in from the north and with dry air in
place will keep forecast dry. Highs in the mid 30s today
although afternoon temps will be dropping behind the front.
Highs Thursday from the low/mid 20s east to the lower 30s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast begins on Thanksgiving night with arctic
high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Modest warm air
advection will slowly increase temperatures at 850mb Thursday night
into Friday but 850 mb temperatures of -8 to -18C will translate to
frigid low temperatures in the 10s and 20s. High pressure will
slowly shift east on Friday as a warm front approaches the region.
Continued warm air advection and southerly flow behind the high will
allow for temperatures to recover into the upper 30s to mid 40s on
Friday. The approaching warm front should bring rain into the region
for the first half of the weekend, but rain should hold off until
late Friday night into Saturday morning, when the upper trough makes
it into the region. Rain will be quick to move across the area on
Saturday but everyone will see rain at some point to will continue
running with categorical pops for all areas on the first half of
Saturday. The area will dry out with the passing of the upper trough
axis and will quickly taper off pops on Saturday night. Temperatures
will have vastly improved by Saturday and high temperatures may
finally hit average for the first time in a couple weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look unsettled for the
beginning of next week. The best day weather-wise appears to be on
Sunday as weak high pressure attempts to briefly build into the
forecast area. However, a deep trough will dig across the central
CONUS supporting a deepening surface low over the southern Plains,
which could impact the region as early as Sunday night. This system
could pack a punch and remain over the region over a couple days.
The general thought for the forecast is that the initial p-type for
this low will be rain on Sunday night into Monday before the system
draws some cold air back into the region for Monday night into
Tuesday. Monday night and beyond can get messy with rain, snow, and
mixed precipitation all plausible at this point, and this system
will be something worth watching over the holiday weekend as folks
return to normal schedules next week. Temperatures will start near
normal on Sunday before getting colder each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
MVFR ceilings continue at most terminals although MFD has been
IFR for a couple hours now. Could see CAK/YNG also briefly drop
to IFR before improving behind the front. Cold front is starting
to push south of Lake Erie as of 18Z. Lake enhanced snow showers
are turning out to be more of drizzle/snow mix which will make
it hard to accumulate this afternoon. With that said, a band of
precipitation is noted on radar north of CLE and have included a
Tempo at CLE/YNG/CAK as this shifts south with the front this
afternoon. Light precipitation may return at times overnight at
ERI/CLE but not expected to last long. Most sites will see
gradual improvement to VFR ceilings by Thursday morning.

Southwest to west winds ahead of the front will shift to the
north with the frontal passage. Gusts to 20-25 knots are
possible for a couple hours, then becoming 10 knots or less
overnight. Winds will be east to northeast by Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sat in rain then again Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued a quick low water advisory for the western end of Lake
Erie until 10 AM this morning. The water level at Toledo made
it down to the critical mark, but will likely only be down for a
couple hours as flow will shift to the northwest fairly quickly
behind the front later this morning.

Previous Discussion...
Strong winds and high waves are expected to continue on the
lake today, as an arctic cold front will cross the lake. Once
cold front crosses the lake, winds will diminish a bit and veer
around to the northwest, allowing waves to subside tonight. Will
continue the small craft advisory for all of Lake Erie with the
west end going through late this afternoon and the eastern end
going through tonight. The northwest flow behind the front
should help the western basin go below SCA criteria before the
east. High pressure will build behind the cold front on Thursday
and winds should settle to light and variable and waves will
subside on the lake. A warm front will approach the lake for the
weekend bringing southerly flow to the area. Another low
pressure system will reach the area Sunday night and impact the
eastern Lakes for the beginning of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sefcovic



Office: ILN FXUS61 KILN 211752 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1252 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will progress through the area today, providing a reinforcing shot of cool air for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Warmer temperatures and rain will return for the weekend as low pressure brings rain Friday night and Saturday. After a brief visit by high pressure and drier air Saturday night into Sunday, low pressure and rain return by Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The day will start off with a mix of sun and clouds, with a trend toward cloudier skies near and north of I-70 for most of the day. In fact, cloud cover will gradually overspread the entire area from the north through the morning and afternoon hours with the approach and subsequent passage of a weak cold front through the area. While this front will not have much in the way of upper level support, a few sprinkles and/or flurries cannot be completely ruled out late in the afternoon for eastern parts of the ILN FA. Other than a few wind gusts to 20 mph, the front will make a quiet progression through the area, with just some clouds and slightly cooler air filtering in for the evening and early overnight period tonight. With increasing cloud cover -- especially for the northern half of the local area -- highs will be held generally in the 30s, with temps topping out in the lower 40s further south towards the Ohio River where there will be a bit more early day sunshine. Lows tonight will range from the lower 20s in the north (where more substantial clearing will take place) to around 30 degrees in the south (where clouds may linger a bit longer into the morning hours on Thursday). && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... The much-advertised quiet weather day for Thanksgiving will come to fruition as high pressure builds into the interior northeast U.S. This will allow for surface flow to slowly veer to more southeasterly and eventually southerly by Thursday evening. Although veering surface flow will help temperatures warm a bit on Thanksgiving Day, with the core of cold air briefly settling in aloft, temperatures will again be held well below seasonal norms. Temps will likely top out in the lower 30s in the north/east to the lower 40s in the south/west. There will be a mix of sun and clouds during the day with lingering moisture between approximately 3kft-4kft stretching northwest to southeast through the Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridging will shift east across the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. This will lead to some increasing higher clouds from the west through the afternoon but otherwise dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s across the south. Mid and upper level short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley Friday night and across the Ohio Valley through the day on Saturday. This will lead to an increasing chance of rain Friday night with widespread rain expected later Friday night into early Saturday morning. The rain should then taper off from the west through late morning and into the afternoon as the trough axis pushes east of the area. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the 50 to 55 degree range. We will get into a brief break in precipitation Saturday into Sunday morning before a developing upper level low pressure system approaches from the west later Sunday into Sunday night. An associated surface low centered over Missouri Sunday morning will lift northeast across the upper Great Lakes through the day on Monday. This will lead to an increasing chance of rain showers late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with winds becoming breezy heading into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens up. A chance for a few showers will then continue Monday into Tuesday as we remain in cyclonic low level flow across the region. Will keep pcpn all rain through Monday but we could then begin to see some snow start to mix in with any pcpn Monday night into Tuesday as some cooler air spills in on the back side of the low. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s, cooling to highs only in the mid to upper 30s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... No precipitation is expected at TAF sites as high pressure moves in behind a weak cold front. MVFR ceilings that have developed in moisture trapped under an inversion will probably linger through most of the forecast period at northern sites DAY ILN CMH and LCK according to latest model moisture profiles. Will monitor CVG and LUK for possible amendments to add MVFR there as well. Have improved conditions to VFR at all sites 14z Thursday but this may be optimistic if latest models prove to be correct. West winds will subside under 10 knots behind the weak front while shifting to east. OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings and visibility possible Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/Coniglio NEAR TERM...KC/Coniglio SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio