ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 291104
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
704 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a dry yet windy end to the work week as clouds give way
to breaks of sun and gusty winds. Gusty winds continue tonight but
then gradually weaken through the day Saturday under mainly
sunny skies and rather mild temperatures. We continue to keep a
close eye on a potential long duration precipitation event for
the middle of next week with both rain and snow accumulations
possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 7am...Just some minor adjustments to temperatures and sky
coverage this morning to match sfc observations and GOES16
satellite trends. Back edge of the cirrus canopy is on our door
step inching towards the western Adirondacks and western
Adirondacks so we still expect early clouds to give way to
increased sunshine this morning from west to east. Rest of the
forecast is on track.
Previous discussion...Our coastal low continues to amplify off
the New England coast with just a cirrus canopy blanketing
eastern NY and western New England this morning. Northwest winds
also remain elevated with sustained winds 5 - 10kts and gusts
up to 20kts as the sfc pressure gradient overhead tightens.
GOES16 IR shows the back edge of these clouds pushing though
central NY and clearing should finally reach the western Mohawk
Valley and the western Adirondacks by 12 UTC Fri. The high
clouds and winds have reduced the rate of cooling overnight so
morning lows have only dropped into the 30s for much of the
area.
As our cirrus canopy exits from west to east this morning,
expect the sun to finally make an appearance. However, as the parent
trough slides overhead and into New England later this morning
and takes on a negative tilt, our coastal low will undergo
rapid cyclogensis, becoming a sub-980hPa low as it reaches the
Gulf of Maine by 00 UTC. This will act to tighten the sfc
pressure gradient overhead and will aid in strengthening cold
and dry air advection, leading to PWATs dropping towards 0.25".
The drying environment and pressure rises in the wake of the
trough will support deep and efficient boundary layer mixing
which, when combined with 925 to 850hPa winds increasing to 35
to 45kts, will likely result in a period of gusty winds this
afternoon into tonight. Expect northwest winds to become
sustained 10 - 20kts with gusts up to 30 - 35kts. The strongest
winds are favored down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital
District and Berkshire County where channeled flow will likely
enhance boundary layer mixing. BUFKIT forecast profiles and
probabilistic guidance from DESI were used to enhanced wind
gusts based on this synoptic set-up. The higher elevations of
the northern/eastern Catskills (including the Helderbergs),
Taconics and Berkshires may experience brief gusts up to 40kts
which is low-end wind advisory criteria (46mph+). However, given
limited spatial coverage, we will hold off on issuing any wind
advisories. The strongest winds and the best potential to reach
low-end wind advisory criteria will likely be between 18 UTC -
06 UTC (2pm today to 2am tonight). Note that trees that are in a
weaken state from the recent freezing rain and heavy snow event
(especially in the Capital District) from last weekend may be
more vulnerable to damage despite winds being sub-advisory.
Besides the gusty winds, morning sun today will mix with clouds
as cold air advection and gusty northwest winds advect moisture
off Lake Ontario downstream. Valley areas should see more
breaks of sun compared to the hill towns/higher terrain.
Otherwise, deep mixing should support temperatures reaching into
the upper 40s to low 50s today with cooler upper 30s in the
higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.
Continued cold air advection tonight and gusty northwest winds
will likely support a few lake effect snow showers to develop
and advect into the northern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley
and western Adirondacks but any accumulation appear minimal
given limited moisture. Winds and areas of stratocumulus clouds
streaming off Lake Ontario tonight will prevent temperatures
from becoming too chilly with lows only dropping into the mid to
upper 20s in the hill town/terrain and low 30s in the valley.
Northwest remain gusty after 06 UTC but should gradually weaken
as we approach sunrise.
Early stratus clouds will give way to sunny skies by mid to
late morning Saturday with northwest winds remaining gusty
reaching up to 20-25kts in the morning. Winds trend downwards
through the afternoon as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes and
shortwave ridging builds eastward. This will yield pleasant
conditions for our Saturday. Temperatures could overperform a
bit given deep mixing and winds aloft veering out of west. We
leaned on the warmer end of guidance and show temperatures
rising well into the mid to upper 50s for valley areas with mid
to upper 40s in the higher terrain. Spots of the mid-Hudson
Valley could hit 60.
PWATs remain quite low on Saturday, falling under 0.25", and
increased sunshine will support deep boundary layer once again
during peak heating hours. Dew points should drop into the low
20s. RH values drop under 30% in the mid- Hudson Valley and NW
CT but winds here should be weaker compared to other areas as
the Catskills help block the northwest flow which should limit
any fire weather issues. Will continue to monitor trends and
check in with state partners who can assess fuel conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds increase Saturday night in response to weak warm air
advection ensuing in the mid and upper levels and a weak
shortwave tracking into the Northeast. While some guidance
shows light showers developing, we limited POPs to just slight
chance or at worst low end chance given weak forcing and
moisture that appears limited to the mid and upper levels. Given
the very air mass in place from Saturday, any precip that
develops should come out of mid-level clouds and could
evaporate before reaching the ground. Otherwise, overnight lows
drop into the mid-upper 30s with upper 20s in the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens which should see less in the way
of clouds/precip.
Morning clouds Sunday should give way to breaks of sun as the
mid-level shortwave exits to our east and subsidence builds in
its wake. Temperatures should turn seasonable reaching into the
low to mid 50s for the valley and low to mid 40s in the higher
terrain. Sfc high pressure builds eastward out of the Great
Lakes for Sunday night into Monday with strong ridging
dominating the Southeast U.S. While we remain on the northern
periphery of this broad ridging with a few weak shortwaves
tracking within the fast westerly flow aloft resulting in
increased cloud coverage, guidance has trended drier for the
Northeast with most shower activity remaining further south in
the mid- Atlantic closer to where a warm front develops and
stalls. Temperatures remain seasonably mild for the start of the
new work week with highs in the low 50s in the valley and upper
40s in the higher terrain for Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deterministic model guidance and ensembles all suggest that a large
storm system will be impacting the region through the mid-week, with
the potential for high QPF and a trend towards some wintry precip,
especially for the higher terrain.
Low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley and Midwest
towards the Great Lakes for Monday night into Tuesday. Well ahead
of this storm system, warm advection will be allowing for an area of
steady precip to move towards the area. While a few high terrain
areas could see some wet snow to start, most of the precip will be
plain rain, as temps aloft and at the surface look just warm enough,
especially with the expected southerly flow ahead of the approaching
storm system. After lows in the 30s on Monday night, temps should
rise into the mid 40s for most places on Tuesday. Temps will fall
into the 30s on Tuesday night, although most spots should be staying
above freezing. While the steadiest precip may shift off to the
north and east, plenty of lingering light precip is expected to
still be in place across the area on Tuesday night.
The main surface low will be slowing down and drifting across the
Great Lakes and Ontario on Wednesday, as a large upper level low
heads towards the area and cuts off for Wednesday. Meanwhile, a
secondary area of low pressure will be developing along or near the
New England coast. With the developing coastal low and cooling
temps aloft thanks to the upper level low, surface temps will be
cooling down, especially for the high terrain. Precip will start to
become organized once again thanks to the developing secondary low,
especially for late Wed into Wednesday night. With the cooling
temps, a changeover to snow is expected for high terrain areas, and
potentially even some valley areas as well. Lows will be down in the
upper 20s to mid 30s on Wed night.
With the upper level low overhead, the secondary low won't be
exiting too quickly, which should linger steady light precip even
into Thursday as well. Additional rain and snow is expected on
Thursday, with many areas outside the immediate valleys seeing some
wintry precip. Precip should start to diminish by late Thursday or
Thursday night as this system finally starts moving away from the
area. Temps will mainly be in the 30s on Thursday, with some valley
areas reaching the 40s by late in the day as precip starts to
diminish.
Ensemble probability guidance suggest many areas, especially
northern and high terrain areas, have a good chance at some
accumulation. Both the 00z GEFS and Euro ensembles suggest at least
a 50% chance for 3 inches or more of accumulation over a good chunk
of the area. This will become further refined over the next few
days as the overall total QPF and temps profiles become into better
focus.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large storm system is departing off the coast of New England
today. Through the day, flying conditions will continue to be VFR.
Widespread overcast mid level clouds will gradually diminish this
morning from south to north, with skies becoming mostly clear by the
late morning or early afternoon hours, with just some lingering
cirrus clouds. During the afternoon hours, some sct to bkn
stratocu/cu will develop around 4-7 kft as well, but it will stay
VFR with no precip. With a strong pressure gradient in place and
good mixing expected, west to northwest winds will increase to 15 to
20 kts for all sites, with some gusts up to 30 kts possible for
KALB/KPSF.
Winds will diminish slightly this evening, but remain rather breezy
into overnight hours, with sustained winds still 10 to 15 kts and
some higher gusts at times. Skies will be clearing out, with just a
few lingering cu/stratocu around 4-6 kft remaining around the area
and continued VFR conditions.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 291316
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
916 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen over the Atlantic today, tracking well
east of Cape Cod then into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A
weak frontal system will pass through the area late Saturday. A
series of weak waves of low pressure will track close to the
area into early next week. A deepening area of low pressure will
then track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into
Tuesday night, then slowly moves across the Northeast for the
middle of next week. The associated frontal system will impact
the area during this time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning. Low pressure continues deepening
well east of Cape Cod. Back edge of thick overcast has made its
way east of the Hudson River corridor and NYC metro. The clouds
further east should begin diminishing late this morning into the
afternoon as the low tracks away from the region.
Any light rain for extreme eastern areas should end by 15z.
Otherwise, NW flow will increase across the entire area thru
the day with gusts 25-35 mph. A few gusts up to 40 mph are
possible in the afternoon, especially if winds at the top of the
mixed later are able to mix down more efficiently. Steep lapse
rates and subsidence should combine to produce some high based
flattening cu in the afternoon. This could serve to reduce the
gust potential. Winds will remain gusty tonight.
Despite h85 temps around -4C, deep mixing produces high temps
right around normal. Wind chills in the 20s most places tonight
due to the winds and temps falling into the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak frontal system may impact the cwa late Sat and Sat night.
The models still do not have a great handle on it, with the NBM
only producing pops around 20. The GFS remains the southern
outlier when compared to the NAM and ECMWF. Probs may be a
little too low in the NBM, especially because it is a light qpf
event, but did not manually adjust for now with the GFS staying
south.
It will continue to be windy on Sat, especially the first half
of the day, then winds back to the W and weaken a bit. Still
breezy though with a well mixed airmass.
Warmer temps aloft and deep mixing promotes highs above normal.
Highs near 60 possible NE NJ and NYC. There is also a chance LI
and southern CT overperforms the guidance significantly based
on the westerly flow. Did not stray from the NBM yet, but the
numbers could be off by at least 5 degrees away from the
immediate shore.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM/previous forecast.
A nearly zonal continues Monday and Monday night with another wave
passing nearby the area.
An upper level cutoff low moving across the central portion of the
country Monday will move into the Great Lakes region Monday night
into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low
that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. The surface low
will pass north of the region, but will slow as it moves eastward,
so expecting a rather extended period of precipitation through at
least the middle part of next week. There are some timing and
evolution differences, but overall good agreement in an unsettled
period coming up. Drier weather build back into the region for the
end of the week as the low departs.
The unsettled conditions and easterly flow for the first half of the
week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or
just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due
to cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast today with high
pressure building in from the west.
VFR expected through the TAF period. Can not rule out a brief
period of MVFR conditions at KGON where some leftover rain
continues through about 14z. Otherwise, dry conditions can be
expected.
NW Winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25kt til about 15z. NW Gusts
then increase with gusts 25-30kt for much of the day. Winds
slowly diminish after 00z Saturday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional early this morning. Can not rule out an
occasional gust higher than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night. W wind gusts near 20 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow becoming W on Sat. A sca is in effect for all
waters thru Sat as a result. The winds diminish Sat night and
Sun, although seas will take longer to subside on the ocean.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels on Monday. The next
chance for a SCA will be on Tuesday and Wednesday in a
strengthening easterly flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through the
middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 291046
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool weather will prevail today through Saturday morning.
Low pressure will then move across the southern Great Lakes late
Saturday through early Sunday morning, bringing a chance of spotty
light rain. Mainly dry weather will then return during the day
Sunday as weak high pressure builds back into the eastern Great
Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across the bulk of
the area this morning, with high clouds east of Lake Ontario
thinning and moving east.
A mid level trough will gradually advance from the eastern Great
Lakes this morning to New England tonight. Increasing large scale
forcing from the approaching trough will allow the coastal low to
spin up and intensify as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes late
tonight, but much too far east to have any direct influence on our
weather. Despite the passage of the mid level trough today, the
airmass is quite dry, with just a shallow layer of low level
moisture available.
The low level moisture and cold air aloft will allow plenty of
diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus to develop today inland from the lake
shadows. The most dense low level cloud cover will develop along a
well defined convergence zone forced by backed flow over Lake Erie.
This band of enhanced cloud cover will stretch from the Niagara
Region of Ontario across Buffalo, extending ESE into the western
Finger Lakes. Expect dry weather to prevail, although a few light
sprinkles cannot be ruled out from any of the taller towering
cumulus.
The convergence zones and diurnal cumulus will break down this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. The airmass will be cold
enough to support lake effect clouds overnight southeast of Lake
Ontario from the Monroe County lakeshore east to Wayne/Cayuga
counties. Forecast soundings suggest the moisture will be very
shallow and removed from a mixed phase layer well above in the dry
air. The shallow moisture and unfavorable cloud microphysics should
prevent any lake effect showers from developing, with the lake
response limited to cloud cover.
Cool temperatures will continue. Highs today will be in the low to
mid 40s in most areas, and upper 30s for higher terrain. Lows
tonight will drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with mid 20s
for the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low will track just south of our region Saturday and
Saturday night, replaced by surface high pressure Sunday.
To start Saturday, a dry airmass will likely yield mainly clear
skies with these clear skies and low dewpoints holding on across
eastern zones through the day. A light breeze to start the day
across eastern zones will diminish through the day as a deep
Atlantic low pushes eastward across Atlantic Canada.
Clouds will increase across the west through the day, with rain
along a warm front sneaking across the state line. The surface low
and rain showers will slide east-southeast, following an initial
shortwave cresting a mid level ridge. Meanwhile a second shortwave
with a bit more amplitude will cross our region Saturday night,
bringing more widespread, but light rain and snow showers to our
region. Under this shortwave, rain showers changing to snow east of
Lake ONtario may accumulate a wet half to one inch on the Tug Hill
by Sunday morning. This activity will exit east of Lake Ontario
early Sunday morning, leaving our region dry with increasing amounts
of sunshine through the afternoon for Easter Sunday. Later Sunday
and Sunday night, a developing baroclinic boundary stretching
eastward will increase clouds from west to east, with a few rain
showers possible along and south of the NYS Thruway.
Temperatures Sunday will be a few degrees cooler behind the
shortwave troughs, with highs close to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather this period as a deep upper level trough over the
Rockies ejects a storm system across the Plains. A baroclinic
boundary stretched across the Midwest and southern mid Atlantic
States may yield a few showers Monday through Monday night.
There are still plenty of model differences to the track of the
storm Tuesday - Wednesday, but rain showers will become likely, with
perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday as the 00Z GFS suggest over
500 J/KG MUCAPE. There may also be a decent temperature gradient
across our region Tuesday, with southerly flow near the state line
producing lower 60s, while east to northeast flow north of the
Thruway, and off the cool Lake Ontario waters may keep areas north
of Thruway in the upper 40s through the day.
Precipitation looks mainly rain Wednesday, but behind the surface
low cold air advection (850 hPa temperatures -6 to -8C) will change
rain to accumulating snow, especially Wednesday night and into
Thursday. Greatest amounts will be on the upslope higher terrain of
SW NYS, and Tug Hill.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold air aloft combined with a shallow layer of low level moisture
will allow areas of diurnal cumulus and stratocumulus to develop by
mid to late morning and continue through early evening away from
stable lake shadows. Expect bases to be lower end VFR. The diurnal
cloud cover will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Lake effect clouds will develop southeast of Lake Ontario
tonight with lower end VFR bases.
It will turn quite breezy this afternoon and evening, with gusts of
25-30 knots areawide from the WNW.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...Areas of MVFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday...areas of MVFR early with a chance of rain and snow
showers, improving to VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of rain, mainly southern areas.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Elongated low pressure east of New England will consolidate into a
deepening low over the Gulf of Maine this afternoon, then move into
the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The deepening low will tighten the
pressure gradient over the lower Great Lakes today, bringing a round
of Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon and tonight. Winds
will be strongest on the east half of Lake Ontario, with sustained
winds reaching 25-30 knots later this afternoon and evening
resulting in higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will
be lower on the west end of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, but still
strong enough to support a period of Small Craft Advisory waves.
Winds will gradually diminish from west to east late tonight and
Saturday as the strong coastal low moves into northern Quebec and
weakens.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
this evening for LEZ020-040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM
EDT Saturday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Saturday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
Saturday for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 291035
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will persist through the start of the weekend though a
dusting of lake effect snow will be possible in portions of Central
New York tonight. Scattered rain showers move into the region late
Saturday but will not last long as Sunday will be dry. Temperatures
will be cool today but will be slightly warmer this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
615 AM Update...
The hourly temps were touched up based on the current
conditions. A few locations did not cool down as much as
expected once the clouds cleared out and have managed to hang
onto the 30s. Otherwise, it will be cool start to the day as
many others fell into the 20s. Winds were bumped up some more
for this afternoon and tonight, mainly to be closer to a couple
neighboring offices. Higher elevations in the Catskills will
likely see the highest gusts with peak gusts exceeding 30
mph. The rest of the forecast was doing well.
350 AM Update...
High pressure will keep conditions quiet today. Skies will continue
to clear from west to east this morning, though northwesterly flow
will support some lake clouds late this morning and through the
overnight hours. Temperatures today will max out in the 40s though
some valley locations may just reach the low 50s today. Model
soundings are fairly dry and will favor some mixing today. Because
of this, dewpoints were lowered below most guidance for the
afternoon hours. Also, a fairly strong low-level jet develops over
the Northeast today. Winds increase throughout the day with peak
gusts between 20 and 30 mph.
Tonight will be blustery as winds will continue to be gusty.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s though wind
chills will be in the teens to low 20s by Saturday morning. Lake
Ontario temperature and 850mb temperature differences will be
favorable for lake effect precipitation tonight, especially with
northwest flow still present. The CMC and HRRR have picked up on
this, so slight chance PoPs were included for portions of CNY. Some
may wake up to a dusting of snow by Saturday morning. Patchy
freezing drizzle is also possible, though no significant ice
accumulation is expected.
The lake effect snow showers will be short-lived and should
dissipate by sunrise on Saturday. Despite a cool start, temperatures
will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s. While winds will still be
gusty in the morning, they do gradually become calmer throughout the
day. Scattered rain showers will begin to move in from the west late
tomorrow as a weak system will clip the region while it passes
through Pennsylvania.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
410 AM update...
A quick moving shortwave is passing through northern NY and St.
Lawrence River Valley Saturday night bringing a chances of low
elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. Given
that temperatures at higher elevations will still be around
freezing with soil temperatures above freezing and light QPF
with this shortwave, snow accumulations will be a few tenths of
an inch at most.
Sunday will have weak upper level ridging building in as a long
wave trough sets up over the western US. Temperatures recover
back to seasonal averages. Sunday night precipitation chances
increase once again as a baroclinic zone sets up extending from
the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic. There is some uncertainty to
how far north this baroclinic zone gets so decided to keep
chances of precipitation north all the way to the thruway for
now but the best chances remains in the Southern Tier and south.
The baroclinic zone will persist into Monday with chances of
precipitation persisting mainly south. Ensembles overnight have
trended a little farther south with the mean QPF on Monday so
chances of precipitation were lowered north of the Southern
Tier. Temperatures were also lowered a little bit with colder
air spilling in from the north with that baroclinic zone
shifting south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 AM update...
The long term is looking active with a deep trough in the west
setting up SW flow along with strong Greenland blocking. A
surface low will likely develop in the central US and move east
into the Great Lakes region and stall with a secondary coastal
low forming mid week. Chances of precipitation were increased
Tuesday through Friday as this will be a long duration event.
Overnight models and ensembles had a deeper trough with lower
500 mb heights as it slowly traverses through the northeast.
Also the 850 mb temperatures ahead of the low Tuesday into
Wednesday were a little colder than previous runs. Blended in
about 20% NBM 10th percentile for temperatures and dew points
for Wednesday into Thursday night to get a little colder
temperatures especially at higher elevations. With the colder
temperatures, snow probabilities were raised where wetbulbs were
below 33 degrees which increased the coverage of snow in the
weather grids. Snow ratios will likely be pretty low like 6:1 to
8:1 based off of some forecast soundings and with some buds out
on trees already there is concern of snow load on branches if
there ends up being more snow with this system. QPF with this
system has increased a little with much of the area seeing at
least an inch with isolated 2 inch amounts at higher elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is expected throughout this TAF period. Lake clouds develop
later today over Central NY and will remain present through the
overnight hours. These mid-level clouds would mainly be over
ITH, SYR, and BGM. There is some guidance that hints at MVFR
ceilings over the region with these lake clouds, but confidence
was too low to include at any particular site. Light lake-effect
snow is also possible in portions of Central NY. SYR would have
the best chance of seeing some snow flakes, but again,
confidence was too low to include. Northwest to westerly winds
will increase this afternoon with sustained speed around 15 kts
and peak gusts of 25 kts at most terminals. Winds will gradually
become calmer after 09z Saturday but will still be gusty.
Outlook...
Saturday morning...VFR (High confidence)
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Mainly VFR but
restrictions from rain showers possibly changing to snow showers
Saturday overnight and Sunday morning. (Moderate confidence)
Sunday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers. (Moderate
confidence)
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; chance of showers.
(Moderate confidence)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/DK
AVIATION...BTL/MWG