ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 182320
AFDALY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
620 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure tracking south and east of our region will
bring light snow or a mix to our area through tonight before
tapering to scattered rain and snow showers on Monday. Unsettled
weather continues on Tuesday with another low pressure system
bringing some rain and snow to our region, while a cold front
brings snow showers to locations north and west of Albany. A
strong cold front tracks through the area Wednesday, leading up
to a very cold Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 620 PM EST, a thin ribbon of moisture extends east
through the western Mohawk Valley and areas just north of I-90
into southern VT. Some patchier and lighter snow extends south
into the Schoharie Valley, Capital District and northern
Berkshires.
There is a decent consensus that the ribbon of moisture
associated with slightly enhanced isentropic lift and
boundary layer frontogenesis within a tightening of the boundary
layer thermal gradient will just slowly build south as elements
of light to moderate snow train through the ribbon of moisture.
Some scattered rain and snow shower activity is beginning to
develop around the eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley near
the leading edge of increasing boundary layer wind convergence.
That activity will expand through this evening but the
scattered nature and warming boundary layer temperatures will
keep the precipitation type as a mix with a dusting of snow at
best through the night.
Areas that see all snow through the night will see around an
inch total but 2 or 3 inches possible in areas of terrain. Winds
will be light and the precipitation is not expected to be so
intense as to cause big temperature falls tonight. So, low
tonight should be in the lower to mid 30s but mid 20s to around
30 northern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any lingering snow and rain should end before midday but the
boundary layer baroclinic zone does not move much with the exit
of the upper energy and there is very little cold advection
after the system departs. Winds will be light and there will
still likely be some extensive cloud cover through Monday,
especially as high clouds spread into our region ahead of the
next system timed for Monday night into Tuesday. Highs Monday in
the upper 30s to lower 40s but a few mid 40s southern areas and
lower to mid 30s northern areas.
There is a broad consensus that upper energy in the lower MS
Valley tracks within the west southwest upper flow, partially
phasing with northern stream upper energy currently in south
central Canada that will track through the Great Lakes. There
are considerable disagreements in sources of guidance as to how
far north the mixed precipitation gets, the timing of
precipitation and how much moisture gets entrained into the
system. There is an increasing consensus that some snow
accumulation will occur north of the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT but the need for headlines for 4+ inches of snow are in
question.
Based on the latest guidance/ensembles and trends, will indicate
snow likely Monday night and Tuesday morning from the Mohawk
Valley to southern VT and points south with a mix in the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT. Chances for snow in northern areas.
Precipitation ends Tuesday morning and scattered rain and snow
showers lingering into the afternoon. Snow amounts of 4 or less
inches but if the southern system starts producing convection
and boundary layer winds increase from the south and southwest
ahead of the system, stronger dynamics, more moisture, stronger
isentropic lift and strong boundary layer frontogenesis will
result in greater snow amounts requiring headlines in parts of
our region. Once again, only relatively weak cold advection once
the system exits and cloud cover may be slow to break up, and
winds not increasing much after the shift to northwest. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 30s to near 40 but around 30 to lower 30s
northern areas.
Intervals of clouds Tuesday night through Wednesday with perhaps
more clouds than sun Wednesday. The leading edge of the strong
cold front will approach and begin to track through northwestern
areas around midday to early afternoon, then track through the
rest of the region Wednesday afternoon, reaching the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT toward evening. The strong low level forcing
along the advancing boundary layer thermal gradient proximate to
cooling aloft will likely support a line of snow showers/squalls
with a quick burst of snow. Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper
30s but 20s northern areas. Temperatures drop sharply behind
the snow showers/squalls along the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main highlight for the extended will be the sharp arctic
outbreak for Wednesday night-Friday, with coldest conditions
Wednesday night-Thanksgiving Day. Lingering snow showers will
persist Wednesday evening, before contracting farther west during
the night as low level winds veer more into the NW. Additional minor
accumulations will be possible with the snow showers, with scattered
coatings to up to an inch accumulation, with locally higher amts
possible across far SW Herkimer County, Schoharie County and perhaps
SE Catskills where snow showers may persist longer. Windy and cold
otherwise, with lows by daybreak Thursday in the single digits and
lower teens, except around zero across the SW Adirondacks. Wind
chills by late Wednesday night should generally drop to -5 to -15 F,
coldest across the SW Adirondacks where high peaks will likely have
some -20 F wind chills.
For Thursday, very cold but mainly dry, outside of a few morning
snow showers across the eastern Catskills and perhaps far western
Mohawk Valley. Highs only reaching the teens to lower 20s for most
areas, except single digits across high peaks of the Adirondacks and
southern Greens. Brisk winds through early afternoon will produce
wind chills in the single digits above and below zero through the
day.
As high pressure crests over the region Thursday night, clear skies
and diminishing wind should set the stage for bitter cold overnight
lows, with mainly zero to 10 above for most valley areas, and zero
to 10 below across higher terrain.
Mainly sunny for Friday, with slight moderation in temps compared to
Thanksgiving Day, with highs mainly in the 20s to around 30. Still
cold Friday night with some increasing clouds, lows in the single
digits and teens.
By next Saturday, as larger scale upper level blocking intensifies
across the North Atlantic, upper level energy looks to undercut
increasing upper level heights developing across SE Canada,
potentially favoring a stormy pattern for the mid Atlantic and
northeast states. There remains uncertainty regarding the track and
evolution of developing low pressure along/near the mid Atlantic
coast by next Saturday, but at the very least, low level warm
advection should favor mainly cloudy skies across the region, with
at least some possibility for snow/rain showers to develop from
south to north late Saturday or Saturday night. Highs should
moderate into the 30s for most areas, with overnight lows only
falling back into the mid 20s to lower 30s assuming increased cloud
cover across the region for Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak disturbance approaching from the south and west will
bring intermittent light snow to the KALB/KPSF/KGFL terminals
and a mix of light rain/snow to KPOU through Monday morning.
The light precipitation will continue to increase from west to
east early this evening at KALB/KPSF/KGFL. KPOU will initially
be on the fringes, so the expected start time there should be
later this evening. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR once
precip begins, with IFR expected to develop at KALB (vsby) and
KPSF (visby & cigs) around late evening to just after midnight.
Some brief periods of IFR vsby will be possible at KGFL/KPOU.
The intermittent light precip will persist through the night
and into early Monday morning before ending. Conditions will
gradually improve after the precip ends, although Cigs should
remain in MVFR range through roughly 15Z-18Z Monday.
Additional light precipitation, mainly rain, could approach KPOU
toward 00Z/Tue.
Winds will be variable less than 5 kt tonight, becoming
westerly Monday morning around 5 kt or less.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...SHSN...SN.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Scattered SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak low pressure tracking south and east of our region will
bring light snow or a mix to our area through tonight before
tapering to scattered rain and snow showers on Monday. Unsettled
weather continues on Tuesday with another low pressure system
bringing some rain and snow to our region, while a cold front
brings snow showers to locations north and west of Albany. A
strong cold front tracks through the area Wednesday, leading up
to a very cold Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flows will continue to lower into next week with colder
than normal temperatures continuing, and mainly light
precipitation events. No widespread hydro problems are
anticipated.
A disturbance moving along a front south of the region will
bring some light snowfall amounting to light accumulations of a
few inches or less tonight through Monday. A mix of rain and
snow is likely in the mid Hudson Valley and northwest
Connecticut. Total liquid equivalents will range from a few
hundredths to a quarter of an inch in a few spots.
Another disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow
showers or a period of light snow on Monday night into Tuesday.
A mix is again possible in the mid Hudson Valley and
northwestern Connecticut. Light QPF once again of a tenth to a
quarter inch is expected.
Scattered snow showers and squalls are expected along a cold
font Wednesday. Colder than normal temperature persist into the
Thanksgiving holiday with flows continuing to recede.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 190004
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
704 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east as a cold front approaches tonight. The
cold front sags south Monday as a wave of low pressure
develops and passes Tuesday. An arctic front will pass Wednesday
evening. Cold weather on Thanksgiving will gradually warm
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The fcst is on track. Upper trough digs southeastward,
approaching Great Lakes Region tonight. Deep SW upper steering
flow prevails ahead of this trough axis, which will run nearly
parallel to a weak cold front. The front will settle over the
area tonight.
Low chance for measurable precip will develop along this front
as upper jet aids in some weak development.
A light southerly flow will warm the boundary layer enough for
mainly light rain if any precip were to develop, except light
rain/snow mix or plain snow inland. Do not expect any
significant accumulations, less than inch across NW zones.
Temperatures fall a few degrees by evening, but light south flow
and clouds will result in nearly steady temperatures overnight.
Lows will range from the lower 30s inland to around 40 in NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper trough pivots eastward in time, which will allow a wave of
low pressure to develop out ahead of it Monday near the Ohio
Valley and toward the mid Atlantic coast. Leaned toward a
GFS/ECMWF tracks per collab with WPC and surrounding offices,
with a low pressure passage just to our south Tuesday.
Generally dry conditions Monday, outside of any light precip in
the vicinity of the front, will give way to a higher chance of
measurable precip Monday night into Tuesday.
Analysis of various guidance suggests enough warm air for plain
rain, with a cooling of the column Tuesday as the low passes
just south. More QPF likely just north of the area where
baroclinic zone is expected and deeper lift is noted.
Would generally expect snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches
across the interior zones, with very little near the coast as
colder air does not arrive before precip winds down late in the
day. Lack of cold air damming ahead of the low will also suggest
less snow attm.
Temps on Monday will be seasonably mild Monday. As winds turn
toward the north Monday night into Tuesday and precip cools the
column, cooler air is expected, with lows in the 30s to around
40 at night, and highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s Tuesday
before readings fall a few degrees during the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any residual light rain or snow will exit quickly Tue eve. Temps
mainly in the 20s with a cold airmass building in. Winds however
should keep the readings from completely bottoming out, especially
NYC and LI. If decoupling does occur, temps in the Pine barrens will
be several degrees cooler than fcst. Fair weather for most of Wed,
but the arctic front appears to reach the area by eve. The trend
with the fropa is slightly faster. The 12z NAM, although it does not
go beyond 00z Thu, has some sbcape abv 100. The GFS and ECMWF are
trending higher with pcpn coverage invof the front. As a result, sct
snow shwrs have been included in the fcst. Due to the instability,
some heavier shsn cannot be ruled out, capable of putting down at
least a coating where they occur. Pops were manually adjusted abv
the model consensus.
Very cold Thanksgiving mrng, with wind chills in the single digits
most areas. Some blw zero wind chills possible in the interior. The
high temp fcst is blw freezing for the entire cwa, with mainly teens
overnight. Please see the climate section for info on records.
A low-mid 1030s high drifts over the cwa on Fri. This will result in
sunny skies, light winds but cold temps. Highs generally in the 30s.
As the high drifts ewd, temps will modify thru the weekend. The
models have sped up with the arrival of a Pacific sys, so rain
chances have been included for late Sat, particularly the wrn half
of the cwa. Better rain chances Sat ngt and Sun. A little fzra has
been included for extreme interior portions Sat ngt. Everything
warms up abv freezing Sun and remains so thru Sun ngt according the
the GFS. Confidence is not high however as the ECMWF is a bit colder
and the overall pattern slightly different, with low pres taking
over off the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to work offshore this evening as a
weak warm front approaches from the southwest. A warm front will
briefly lift through late tonight into Mon morning, then pass
back to the south as a cold front by afternoon.
Mainly a VFR forecast, with some patchy MVFR cigs possible early
at the Long Island and NYC metro terminals and at KSWF. MVFR
cigs expected to return to KSWF for the daylight hours on Mon,
with mainly VFR elsewhere. Chances for precip will be on the low
side and have not been mentioned in the TAF through 00Z Tue.
Light SE winds tonight around to the S-SW overnight into early
Mon morning with a weak warm frontal passage, and then W-NW by
afternoon as the front passes back to the south as a cold
front.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
rain or wintry mix. NW winds G15-20kt.
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR. W-NW
winds G20-30kt.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
.Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure gives way a weak cold front tonight and Monday.
Light winds and tranquil seas will be the result. Winds shift
around to the north gradually Monday night and Tuesday as low
pressure rides along the front and passes. Sub SCA conditions
persist.
Winds and seas will increase to sca lvls late Wed and Wed ngt with
the passage of an arctic front. There is a low prob for gales. Winds
and seas subside Thu aftn across all waters. Cond blw sca lvls on
Fri, then may ramp up again Sat, especially on the ocean, as low
pres approaches.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF amounts between 1/4" and 1/2" are expected through Tuesday,
with the bulk of this falling Monday night into Tuesday. No
hydrologic issues are expected through Friday. A sys will bring
pcpn to the region next weekend, but confidence in forecasting
hydrologic impacts is low attm.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures for Thu Nov 22:
Central Park.....13 (1880)
LaGuardia........21 (1987)
Kennedy..........20 (1987)
Newark...........19 (1987)
Bridgeport.......18 (1987)
Islip............20 (1987)
Record high minimum temperatures for Thu Nov 22:
Central Park.....23 (1880)
LaGuardia........31 (1972)
Kennedy..........34 (2008)*
Newark...........33 (1949)
Bridgeport.......30 (1972)
Islip............31 (2008)
Record low temperatures for Fri Nov 23:
Central Park.....14 (1880)
LaGuardia........23 (1972)
Kennedy..........25 (2008)*
Newark...........21 (1932)
Bridgeport.......16 (1972)
Islip............13 (1989)
*also occurred in previous years
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 182359
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A few lake effect snow showers will form tonight northeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario, with nominal accumulations. Cold weather will last
through Thanksgiving Day before warmer air arrives by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light synoptic snow showers are tapering off this evening, with just
the inland So. Tier under a few more hours of light snow. Additional
snow is possible later this evening and tonight, this of the lake
effect variety, as a weak trough of low pressure has formed near
Lake Erie and Ontario. There are already light returns on radar, the
combination of marginal instability and light forcing within the
surface trough, with Dual-Pol suggesting that this activity is
falling as snow. However, BUFKIT displays a lack of moisture within
the snow growth zone northeast of both lakes, and with IR satellite
imagery displaying mid and high level clouds now to our east...we
will lack any seeder feeder mechanism and thus this activity later
tonight will need to be monitored for any drizzle/freezing drizzle
formation. Any snow accumulations tonight will be minor. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s with extensive cloud cover
preventing radiational cooling.
On Monday, weak high pressure will build into western Pennsylvania.
It may be just cold enough aloft to support some weak lake effect
snows northeast of the lakes Monday morning, but by the afternoon
expect mid-level temperatures to be too warm to support anything
more than lake effect clouds. There will be some breaks of sunshine
during the day, but the majority of the time will be cloudy. Highs
on Monday will average in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday night will be dry to start the night as the shortwave
trough and area of low pressure will be to the northwest of the
area. POPs will begin to increase as this trough approaches the
area through the early morning on Tuesday from northwest to
southeast. A cold front will accompany this trough and area of
low pressure trekking toward the area. Snow showers will move in
to the area, with some lake enhancement also possible off of
both Lake Erie and Ontario.
As the cold front moves through on Tuesday morning snow showers will
overspread the area, with continued lake enhancement transitioning
to lake effect Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night southeast of
the lakes. An upper level trough axis will be over the area on
Tuesday afternoon and move through by the evening. The next synoptic
system, a clipper will approach the area on Wednesday morning,
bringing with it another shot of cold air behind it. Widespread snow
of around an inch is possible on Tuesday, with additional light snow
amounts from the lake effect. Highs on Tuesday will occur in the
late morning or early afternoon and reach the upper 20s in the
higher terrain to low 30s closer to the lakes. Low temperatures on
Tuesday night will be in the teens over the higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario, and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.
Second clipper shortwave and associated cold front expected to cross
the area Wednesday. At this stage, only looking at some nuisance
snow showers and limited lake effect potential. Even though the
potential for accumulating snows look limited, those planning to
travel are strongly encouraged to stay up to date on the forecast as
it doesn't take much snow to cause travel issues.
Secondary thermal trough will filter in Wednesday night and Thursday
on the front side of an approaching area of high pressure and will
bring 850 mb temperatures back down below -15C, resulting in a very
chilly Thanksgiving day with high temperatures capping in the 20s
and wind chills in the teens or colder at times.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Arctic high pressure over the area Thursday night will result in a
very cold if not bitter night. Temperatures will fall into the teens
to single digits above zero, with even a few readings near zero
or below for the western Adirondacks region.
The arctic high will move east Friday allowing for a fair weather
day with temperatures moderating into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Precipitation chances will increase during the weekend as an advancing
warm front pushes into the region. Temperatures over the
weekend should warm to near normal with most highs in the 40s.
The moderating temperatures do not look to last long as longer range
guidance hints at troughing returning to the Great Lakes by late
next weekend into the start of the following week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS a deck of low clouds remains across the So. Tier,
while farther to the north, and south of Lake Ontario cloudy bases
are generally between 1 an 2K feet.
These poor flight conditions will prevail the next 6 to 12 hours,
until a weak surface low pressure trough passes through. This trough
may also bring a few light snow showers northeast and east of the
Lakes, with possible flight reductions at KIAG/KBUF and likely at
KART.
Tomorrow behind the trough conditions will improve across the Lake
Plain, with generally VFR flight conditions, though across the
higher terrain to the south...IFR/MVFR flight conditions will likely
linger through the day as moisture near a nearly stalled frontal
boundary remains trapped in the lower levels beneath an inversion.
Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Periodic snow showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A series of weak fronts will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight
through Tuesday with winds generally less than 15 knots. A stronger
cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. This
front will tighten the pressure gradient and bring another round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, with some potential for low end gales on Lake
Ontario during this period.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...RSH/SW
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 182338
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture streaming along a sagging frontal boundary will produce 1
to 2 inches of light snow for much of central New York and the
northern tier of Pennsylvania through tonight. After mainly dry
weather Monday, another wave along that frontal boundary could
yield another shot of light snow in Northeast Pennsylvania to
the Catskills Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...
A sagging frontal boundary will provide the focus for two waves
of light snow during the near term period, though with some rain
mixed in at times for lower elevations.
A very subtle frontal boundary is currently straddled across the
Twin Tiers, and isentropic lift/jet support to its north has
allowed a ribbon of light 1-3 mile visibility snow to develop
across the Finger Lakes through NY Thruway corridor. A weak
upper wave passage will push this area of snow further south
into the Twin Tiers this evening, and then it will lose jet
support will shifting to the Wyoming Valley-Poconos-Catskills
overnight. Some highest terrain locations in Central New York
could finish with about 3 inches of snow, but most directly
impacted areas will only get an inch or two from this system,
and less than that in lower elevations of Northeast Pennsylvania
due to lighter precipitation and temperatures hovering above
freezing; some rain could mix in as well. Lows will generally be
in the 30-35 degree range.
Brief ridging Monday will result in generally dry conditions
though still with a good amount of cloud cover. Highs will be
mid 30s to lower 40s. Meanwhile, that subtle boundary will
persist over the far southeastern part of our area. This will
lay a path for the next wave of low pressure, and models have
trended higher for chances and amounts of snow Monday night as
that wave traverses the boundary. By dawn Tuesday, we are
figuring on another inch or so of light snow accumulation for
much of Northeast PA into the Catskills of NY; perhaps 2 inches
in the Poconos.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air will filter down behind a departing coastal storm on
Tuesday, while a secondary frontal system swings down from
Ontario. Cold air crossing the relatively warm lake waters will
increase the potential for lake effect snow showers Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Winds will gust at 10 to 20 mph.
The next front will move through NY and PA on Wednesday as a
clipper system. Arctic air will follow behind the front, and the
initial push of frigid air could cause brief snow squalls. We
will need to keep an eye on this situation, particularly because
Wednesday is a major travel day.
Temperatures will fall into the single digits Wednesday night
under clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The latest model projections are forecasting the coldest air
mass of the season to move into NY/PA by Thursday. Temperatures
will only rise into the upper-teens on Thanksgiving Day, despite
a fair weather high pressure system bringing mainly clear skies
to the region.
Thursday night will be extremely cold with temperatures falling
to between 5 and 10 degrees. A few readings below zero are not
out of the question.
High pressure will yield fair weather again on Friday, but
temperatures will only moderate into the middle-20s.
A storm spinning into the Mid-Atlantic will cause a chance for
snow showers on Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the
upper-30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stripe of light snow and MVFR to IFR visibilities across
Central New York will continue to slide to the e/se this evening.
The fuel alternate to IFR ceilings will linger through tonight
even after the snow ends. KAVP, will see a mix of rain/snow
initially and then a change to snow later tonight. Winds become
light and variable tonight, then westerly Monday morning before
light and variable again Monday afternoon. Minor improvement to
ceilings will also occur Monday morning, but still at least
MVFR; in the case of KBGM probably fuel alternate required. The
front shifts back to the north Monday afternoon, but with
limited precipitation before 00Z Sunday.
Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday night...Restrictions reappear with
chances of snow showers from additional weak waves of low
pressure, followed by lake effect snow showers later Tuesday-
Tuesday night for the NY terminals, especially KSYR-KRME.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...Possible snow squalls/brief
yet significant restrictions as Arctic front slides through the
region, followed by lake effect snow showers and flurries.
Thursday...VFR except for intermittent restrictions from lake
effect flurries KSYR-KITH-KELM-KBGM.
Thursday night through Friday...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP
