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Office: ALY

FXUS61 KALY 191128
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and milder weather returns today, as a low
pressure system and a warm front over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
bring some rain into the region during the afternoon and evening
hours. Potentially record breaking warmth is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EST, minor tweaks made to the hourly temps to
reflect recent obs. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for
today. Further details regarding the forecast follow...

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have fallen into the
teens and 20s across the region. However, the surface ridge will
continue to retreat offshore today allowing for a southwest
breeze to commence within the return flow.

Today, the mid and upper level flow shifts from zonal to
southwesterly, as ridging centered southeast of the Carolinas
and Georgia begins to build northward into the region. The low
to mid level warm advection begins, as a warm front lifts
north/northeast from the OH Valley and the mid Atlantic Coast.
Clouds will rapidly thicken and lower across the forecast area
from the southwest to northeast. Light rain should overspread
the region by the early afternoon. Temps should rise quickly
into the 30s and 40s with the increasing south to southwest
flow. We are not expecting any shallow cold air to stay in
place. There could be a period of rain/snow mix in the southern
Adirondacks before changing to liquid rain. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 40s in the valley areas, and upper 30s to
around 40F over the hills and some of the sheltered valleys.
Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph. Rainfall amounts
will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch with the higher
amounts west of the Hudson River Valley.

Tonight, the warm front associated with low pressure moving
into the western Great Lakes Region will keep periods of mainly
light rain going across the region. The best lift and steadiest
rainfall should occur north and west of the Capital region, with
showers tapering off to the south and east by the morning. Low
temps will not drop off too much in the warm advection regime,
and will steady and slowly rise from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Some spots could even hit 50 degrees by daybreak. Patchy fog is
likely due to snow melt, and the saturated low-levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday, the upper level ridge will continue to build into the
region. Lows pressure tracks northeast of MI along the edge of
the upper ridge, as the warm front lifts through the area. Some
scattered showers may linger north of the Mohawk Valley and
Capital Region. Patchy fog will be a problem in the morning with
the snow melt. We will continue to monitor if any hydro
problems start to arise Tuesday and Tuesday night especially in
terms of ice break up and snow melt. Total rainfall will
generally be a half an inch or less over the entire area the
evening, except over the western Mohawk River Valley and
southern Dacks where a half an inch to an inch or so is
possible. Temps soar above normal with H850 temp anomalies 2 to
3 standard deviations above normal on the GEFS. Max temps may
get to record levels on TUE and TUE night in terms of high and
record high mins.

See our Hydro and Climate sections with more details...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern with above average temperatures are
expected during the long term period.

We begin with a potentially record breaking temperatures on
Wednesday, however, there remains some concern that cloud coverage
may limit the late February sunshine as a blended approach of the
GFS/NAM/ECM was utilized (NAM was the coldest with the 00Z MOS). The
chance for showers will be on the increase from west to east as a
strong cold front approaches and moves through the region.  In fact,
as Showalter Index values drop closer to the lower single digits,
would not be surprised for a rumble of thunder with frontal passage.

Then a large Canadian high pressure will slide in across the Great
Lakes and into the northeast corridor of the conus during Thursday.
This should result in a somewhat dry and seasonable day.  The cold
front may slow down its forward momentum a bit to keep the chance
PoPs for the southern zones through the day.

As this high transverses off the New England coastline Thursday night
into Friday , this cold front returns northward as a warm front as
next storm and potent mid and upper level jet comes out of the
central and southern Plains. This will introduce another round of
showers mainly on Friday, perhaps mixing with snow as low level flow
may remain from the north with the departing high.

Then models diverge a bit Friday night and into the weekend.  The
ECMWF and GGEM are in agreement with another large Canadian high
once again tracking across the Great Lakes into New England with the
GFS much weaker and keeping clouds and the chance for showers in the
forecast.  We will favor the ECMWF and GGEM with a drier forecast
through most of the weekend with an increase in cloud coverage
Sunday and the increase PoPs from west to east.

Temperatures through the long term will average above normal with
precipitation probabilities at or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through the overnight with some increase of CI/CS
through the overnight with either a light southerly wind or
light and variable.

Through the daylight hours Monday, an increase in mid level
clouds will occur as the chance of showers arrives during the
afternoon. At this point is when MVFR CIGS should occur with
chance for IFR conditions rapidly increasing toward sunset.
Southerly winds too will increase with gusts over 20kts through
the day. There will be a chance for LLWS toward the later
portion of the forecast that will be further reviewed with the
next TAF issuance.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...FG.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will start to warm back up today with some
additional rainfall as well. A warm front will bring a few
tenths to a half an inch of rainfall this afternoon into tonight
with the higher amounts northwest of the Capital District.

An additional a tenth to half an inch is possible TUE-TUE night,
again with the higher totals over the northern basins.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated by Tuesday into
Wednesday, so we will be monitoring for runoff due to snowmelt
and possible ice jam movement.

The latest MMEFS today are indicating river rises with some
minor flooding possible due to snowmelt and rainfall this week,
especially in the Mohawk River basin and Hope in the southern
Adirondacks. Ice jams will likely start moving due to the mild
temperatures and could increase the flood potential in some
areas. However, there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding how much snowmelt occurs. The rainfall will likely be
limited over most of the HSA, except the Mohawk Valley into the
southern Adirondacks.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Warmth is possible TUE into WED.

Feb 20th
The record highs:
KALB 66F set in 1930
KGFL 58F set in 1981
KPOU 63F set in 2016

Feb 21st
The record highs:
KALB 65F set in 1981
KGFL 65F set in 1981
KPOU 67F set in 1953


RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JVM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JVM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JVM/Wasula
LONG TERM...Cebulko/BGM
AVIATION...Frugis/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11/JVM/Wasula
CLIMATE...

FXUS61 KALY 191138
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
638 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and milder weather returns today, as a low
pressure system and a warm front over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
bring some rain into the region during the afternoon and evening
hours. Potentially record breaking warmth is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EST, minor tweaks made to the hourly temps to
reflect recent obs. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for
today. Further details regarding the forecast follow...

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have fallen into the
teens and 20s across the region. However, the surface ridge will
continue to retreat offshore today allowing for a southwest
breeze to commence within the return flow.

Today, the mid and upper level flow shifts from zonal to
southwesterly, as ridging centered southeast of the Carolinas
and Georgia begins to build northward into the region. The low
to mid level warm advection begins, as a warm front lifts
north/northeast from the OH Valley and the mid Atlantic Coast.
Clouds will rapidly thicken and lower across the forecast area
from the southwest to northeast. Light rain should overspread
the region by the early afternoon. Temps should rise quickly
into the 30s and 40s with the increasing south to southwest
flow. We are not expecting any shallow cold air to stay in
place. There could be a period of rain/snow mix in the southern
Adirondacks before changing to liquid rain. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 40s in the valley areas, and upper 30s to
around 40F over the hills and some of the sheltered valleys.
Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph. Rainfall amounts
will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch with the higher
amounts west of the Hudson River Valley.

Tonight, the warm front associated with low pressure moving
into the western Great Lakes Region will keep periods of mainly
light rain going across the region. The best lift and steadiest
rainfall should occur north and west of the Capital region, with
showers tapering off to the south and east by the morning. Low
temps will not drop off too much in the warm advection regime,
and will steady and slowly rise from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Some spots could even hit 50 degrees by daybreak. Patchy fog is
likely due to snow melt, and the saturated low-levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday, the upper level ridge will continue to build into the
region. Lows pressure tracks northeast of MI along the edge of
the upper ridge, as the warm front lifts through the area. Some
scattered showers may linger north of the Mohawk Valley and
Capital Region. Patchy fog will be a problem in the morning with
the snow melt. We will continue to monitor if any hydro
problems start to arise Tuesday and Tuesday night especially in
terms of ice break up and snow melt. Total rainfall will
generally be a half an inch or less over the entire area the
evening, except over the western Mohawk River Valley and
southern Dacks where a half an inch to an inch or so is
possible. Temps soar above normal with H850 temp anomalies 2 to
3 standard deviations above normal on the GEFS. Max temps may
get to record levels on TUE and TUE night in terms of high and
record high mins.

See our Hydro and Climate sections with more details...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern with above average temperatures are
expected during the long term period.

We begin with a potentially record breaking temperatures on
Wednesday, however, there remains some concern that cloud coverage
may limit the late February sunshine as a blended approach of the
GFS/NAM/ECM was utilized (NAM was the coldest with the 00Z MOS). The
chance for showers will be on the increase from west to east as a
strong cold front approaches and moves through the region.  In fact,
as Showalter Index values drop closer to the lower single digits,
would not be surprised for a rumble of thunder with frontal passage.

Then a large Canadian high pressure will slide in across the Great
Lakes and into the northeast corridor of the conus during Thursday.
This should result in a somewhat dry and seasonable day.  The cold
front may slow down its forward momentum a bit to keep the chance
PoPs for the southern zones through the day.

As this high transverses off the New England coastline Thursday night
into Friday , this cold front returns northward as a warm front as
next storm and potent mid and upper level jet comes out of the
central and southern Plains. This will introduce another round of
showers mainly on Friday, perhaps mixing with snow as low level flow
may remain from the north with the departing high.

Then models diverge a bit Friday night and into the weekend.  The
ECMWF and GGEM are in agreement with another large Canadian high
once again tracking across the Great Lakes into New England with the
GFS much weaker and keeping clouds and the chance for showers in the
forecast.  We will favor the ECMWF and GGEM with a drier forecast
through most of the weekend with an increase in cloud coverage
Sunday and the increase PoPs from west to east.

Temperatures through the long term will average above normal with
precipitation probabilities at or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through this morning as CI/CS continue to
increase and thicken. Through the daylight hours, mid level
clouds will thicken and lower as the chance of showers arrives
during the afternoon hours. At this point is when MVFR CIGS
should occur with chance for IFR conditions rapidly increasing
toward sunset. Southerly winds too will increase with gusts over
20kts through the day. There will be a chance for LLWS toward
the later portion of the forecast that will be further reviewed
upon upstream observations and model trends.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...FG.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will start to warm back up today with some
additional rainfall as well. A warm front will bring a few
tenths to a half an inch of rainfall this afternoon into tonight
with the higher amounts northwest of the Capital District.

An additional a tenth to half an inch is possible TUE-TUE night,
again with the higher totals over the northern basins.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated by Tuesday into
Wednesday, so we will be monitoring for runoff due to snowmelt
and possible ice jam movement.

The latest MMEFS today are indicating river rises with some
minor flooding possible due to snowmelt and rainfall this week,
especially in the Mohawk River basin and Hope in the southern
Adirondacks. Ice jams will likely start moving due to the mild
temperatures and could increase the flood potential in some
areas. However, there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding how much snowmelt occurs. The rainfall will likely be
limited over most of the HSA, except the Mohawk Valley into the
southern Adirondacks.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Warmth is possible TUE into WED.

Feb 20th
The record highs:
KALB 66F set in 1930
KGFL 58F set in 1981
KPOU 63F set in 2016

Feb 21st
The record highs:
KALB 65F set in 1981
KGFL 65F set in 1981
KPOU 67F set in 1953


RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JVM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JVM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JVM/Wasula
LONG TERM...Cebulko/BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11/JVM/Wasula
CLIMATE...



Office: OKX FXUS61 KOKX 191226 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 726 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic today as a warm front slowly approaches from the south. The front is expected to lift into the region late tonight, possibly lifting through the Tri State area on Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds across New England on Friday. Unsettled conditions follow for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure off the southern New England coast will strengthen over the western Atlantic today. Dry weather is expected through the morning with cloud cover increasing as a WAA pattern ensues. A warm front will approach from the south as a shortwave trough moves through the Ohio Valley and into western NY State by this eve. Overrunning rain is expected to develop during the aftn and early eve in NYC and points N and W. Temps are expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal today ranging from mid 40s in far NW locations to lower 50s in the NYC metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Strong SE ridging continues through Tue with a Bermuda high parked over the western Atlantic. Challenging forecast for Tue wrt warm fropa. Rain continues into the evening as the shortwave tracks through New England and isentropic lift becomes more widespread. The organized rain is expected to exit around midnight or so, although light rain or drizzle is then expected overnight with saturated low levels and mid level drying. Additionally, areas of fog are expected to develop and it could become dense in coastal locations tonight. All available guidance is indicating the front pushes through late tonight or Tue morning, however pattern recognition suggests it may only partially move through at the sfc. The low associated with the front will be well west of the Appalachians and typically warm fronts have a very hard time completely moving through the local area in this type of scenario due to the colder coastal waters. There is a 25-35kt LLJ between 1000-975mb late tonight/Tue morning which may be enough to push it through at the sfc. Have higher confidence that the front lifts through western portions of the Tri-State area, but lower confidence that it lifts through CT. Thus, there is high bust potential on high temps Tue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalously strong ridge across the southeast US/western Atlantic will be in place on Wednesday. The ridge will largely stay in place through the end of the week, but the core gets suppressed a bit with a more westerly flow aloft over the northeast. Several pieces of energy/shortwaves are progged to flow out of the western US trough and around the periphery of the ridge late this week and into the upcoming weekend. The timing of these waves in the flow is difficult to resolve at present time, but there will likely be periods of unsettled conditions late this week into the upcoming weekend. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Moist and unseasonably warm air mass will likely lead to the develop of stratus and fog Tuesday night. It is a big early to determine if the fog will be dense, but enough confidence based on BUFKIT profiles and the anomalous nature of this environment to include of areas of fog. The fog should mix out Wednesday morning except for coastal areas such as Long Island and southeast CT. This is due to the cooler water temperatures and a stronger inversion above the surface. Surface temperatures will be held down a bit here due to the ocean influence and potential for fog/stratus to linger. Highs range from the middle 50s to near 60s degrees. Elsewhere, the warmest day of 2018 is likely for Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 60s inland and near 70 or even lower 70s for NYC metro and NE NJ. See climate section below for record highs. Wednesday night into Thursday night...There is overall excellent agreement among the 00z models and the last few runs of the deterministic and ensemble guidance for a cold front to sink south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge breaks down just enough to allow the front to move through the area. The models do differ on the amount of shower activity with the front and then again with any overrunning on Thursday as high pressure builds across New England. Will continue with chance PoPs until Thursday night when there is enough surface ridging to suppress the front and moisture well to our south. Temperatures on Thursday will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still well above normal for this time of year. Friday into the upcoming weekend...Active and unsettled weather pattern will continue as several shortwaves move around the periphery of the southeast ridge. The best chance of rain based on a blend of the latest guidance appears to be Friday into Friday night and then again on Sunday. However, there are significant differences among the GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/EPS which indicate potential for rain on Saturday as well. Temperatures will continue unseasonably mild Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure moves well to the east as a warm front approaches the area later today and tonight. VFR conditions this morning with southerly winds 5 to 10 kt. By afternoon, patchy stratus should develop, and rain will move in from the west late. MVFR ceilings are possible by mid to late afternoon, after 19-22Z. S winds around 10 kt are forecast, and these winds lighten by evening. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible tonight as ceilings likely lower and fog develops. Cannot rule out LIFR ceilings and visibilities at times as the night progresses. LLWS in the forecast most terminals for SW winds around 2 kft at 35-40 kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon for developing stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon for developing stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon for developing stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon for developing stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon for developing stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon for developing stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.1 .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tue...MVFR or IFR possible in the morning and again at night, otherwise VFR with SW wind G15-20KT possible. .Wed...Mostly VFR, patchy fog possible. Chance of showers with MVFR late in the day. SW wind G15-20KT possible. Winds shift to the N at night. .Thu...MVFR in rain. NE wind G15 KT possible. .Fri...CHC MVFR in rain. Wintry mix possible early across interior terminals. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions will prevail across the waters into this evening as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. An increasing SW flow will develop tonight and continue on Tue as the offshore high strengthens and low pressure moves through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. A strong inversion will develop over the waters due to a WAA pattern keeping winds below SCA levels, although seas on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet are expected to build to marginal levels tonight and Tue. Have issued an SCA for ANZ353 & 350 starting at midnight tonight and continuing through the day Tue. A moderate SW flow on the ocean waters may continue seas above 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. There may also be marginal SCA gusts on the ocean. A cold front moves across the waters Wednesday night with winds and seas subsiding. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Less than 1/4 inch of rainfall is expected from this aftn through tonight. Several rounds of rain are possible late this week into the upcoming weekend, but no significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this time. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures may approach or break record highs in a few spots Tuesday and Wednesday. Record Highs for Tuesday February 20, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............70/1939 Bridgeport..........54/1991 Central Park........69/1939 LaGuardia...........63/1943 JFK.................61/1949 Islip...............62/2016 Record Highs for Wednesday February 21, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............69/1953 Bridgeport..........59/2002 Central Park........68/1930 LaGuardia...........68/1953 JFK.................63/2002 Islip...............63/2002 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24 NEAR TERM...24 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...PW MARINE...24 HYDROLOGY...DS CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...
Office: BUF FXUS61 KBUF 190905 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 405 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and into Quebec Wednesday. This will result in periods of rain and a dramatic warm up for the first half of the week. Temperatures will soar into the 60s or warmer which would be the warmest weather since last October. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure is off the southern New England coast early this morning. A southerly flow has increased across the eastern Great Lakes ahead of the next low pressure system located across the Central Plains. This system and associated warm front will approach the lower Great Lakes today bringing wet and unseasonably warm weather to the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight. Warm air advection will continue today as a 40-50kt LLJ advects moisture into the region. Cirrus has been overhead this morning however low-mid level clouds will quickly rush into the Southern Tier this morning as rain continues to break out across the Ohio River Valley ahead of a warm front that will move northward across the Mississippi/Ohio River valleys today. For the rest of the morning, gusty S-SE winds are expected along the Lake Erie shoreline as downsloping flow comes off the Chautauqua Ridge. Dunkirk recently reported a peak gust of 43 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect this morning for gusts up to 50 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds will veer by late morning causing strong gusts to taper off. Weaker gusts are expected across higher elevations tapping into the stronger winds aloft. Rain looks on schedule to move into the Southern Tier this morning and spread from west to east across the forecast area by early afternoon. Steady light to moderate rain is expected today and will result in generally a quarter to a half inch. Temperatures will climb into the 50s across the Southern Tier, portions of the Niagara Frontier and western Finger Lakes whereas places north of these areas will stay in the 40s. Due to the warm weather of last week, little to no snowpack exists across Western New York however, the Tug Hill Plateau still has considerable amounts of snow water equivalent. See Hydrology section below for more details on flood potential. The warm front will move into the forecast area tonight leading to a mild night with low temperatures climbing further into the 50s. The LLJ will weaken some across the region as low pressure moves into Michigan and the warm front moves north into Canada. The axis of heavier rainfall will also move northward across Lake Ontario and the North Country this evening and then into Canada by late tonight. Rain will become more showery tonight as strong warm air advection continues to draw in anomalously high PWAT air into the region. Additional rainfall amounts of a half inch to three quarters inch expected across the Niagara Frontier and North Country. Lesser amounts expected elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Anomalous upper level ridge just off the Southeast coast will continue to strengthen up to 3 standard deviations above normal Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will hold the trough in place over the Southwest CONUS, resulting in a southwesterly mean flow nearly parallel to frontal boundary extending just to the north of New York state. Continued surge of moisture along the front will bring the axis of heaviest rain north and west of the forecast area along the northern edge of the strong 50 knot plus low level jet. South of the boundary, much of the area will see plenty of dry time Tuesday and Tuesday night. Unseasonably warm and near record temperatures are possible Tuesday with highs well into the 60s across most locations with a few lower 70s in the Genesee Valley not out of the question. Coolest temperatures will be along the Lake Erie and eastern Lake Ontario shorelines with southwest winds crossing the cool lake waters. The frontal boundary north of the area will get dragged across the area as a cold front Wednesday, with widespread rain again shifting southeast across our region. As the cold front presses southeast there is a chance that any lingering showers on the backside could mixing with and changing to some snow showers Wednesday night. The cold front will bring a return of near normal temperatures in the wake of the front Wednesday. Temperatures behind the front will exhibit a non-diurnal trend under cold air advection. Temperatures will continue to slip back to near freezing Wednesday night. Total rainfall through Wednesday yields closer to one half an inch of rainfall over the Finger Lakes increasing toward an inch close to the Lake Ontario shore. Highest totals are still expected toward the Saint Lawrence River Valley where and inch and a half could fall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday east of Lake Ontario with the combination of significant snowmelt and river rises. This flood potential will include the Black River. See the Hydrology section below for more details. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong dry high pressure is forecast to build over the Great Lakes Thursday then across New York and New England Thursday night. There remains a low chance of some lingering rain and snow showers toward the western Southern Tier on Thursday depending on the speed of the front but dry weather should be expected elsewhere with some sunshine also returning. Temperatures will run much closer to normal with highs only reaching into the mid 30s to perhaps 40 toward the PA border. Lows will slip into the 20s Thursday night. 12z models continue to show at least two surface waves/frontal zones crossing our region between later Friday into next weekend. The closest model agreement seems to point toward Friday night for one wave where likely POPs have been placed. Otherwise, chance POPs for rain and at times rain/snow or snow showers run through the weekend with p-type dependent on diurnal fluctuations in surface temps. Southerly flow will promote temps around 10 degrees above mid-late Feb normals. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will last through 12Z, then steady rain will spread into the region from SW-NE. This will result in lowering cigs, which will be somewhat offset by downsloping at BUF/IAG/ROC. At JHW expect IFR conditions to develop late Monday morning due to increasing low moisture in the southerly flow. Also, increasing winds aloft will result in LLWS at most locations Monday morning. Steady rain continues today before becoming showery tonight. LLWS will continue into Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday...Generally VFR to MVFR in showers but IFR across the North Country in more widespread rain. Wednesday...MVFR in moderately heavy showers. Thursday...VFR. Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain or snow showers. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will then increase this morning, with sustained winds reaching near 30 knots along the Lake Erie near shores, and 20 to 25 knots on the eastern end of Lake Ontario. While the greatest wave action will be directed into Canadian waters, small craft advisories are in effect through the afternoon due to the strong offshore winds alone. && .HYDROLOGY... There remains a significant risk for flooding in the Black River Basin. A prolonged period of warm temperatures in the 50s and 60s will result in significant snow melt, and the Black River basin still has a significant amount of snow water equivalent in place despite the brief warm up a few days ago. Although model guidance has shifted the axis of heaviest rain a bit north and into southern Ontario province, generally an inch to inch and a half of rain is likely in the Black River basin with higher amounts possible on the Tug Hill through mid- week. The greatest risk for flooding is as the Watertown forecast point where ensembles show that there is a risk of moderate flooding due to the widespread (but prolonged) nature of the rain and snow melt. Latest RFC forecast show the Watertown forecast point still rising at the end of the forecast, with an increasing risk of flooding starting on Wednesday. Flooding may be prolonged with the forecast potentially remaining above or near flood stage for several days. Boonville and McKeever will respond a bit more quickly, and may reach flood stage on Wednesday but if they do should crest quickly and fall within a day or so. Ice jams also may be an issue with some ice still in place in and along some waterways in the basin. Meanwhile, snowmelt and rain may result in general flooding of smaller tributaries in the region. Elsewhere, there is much less snow pack in place due to recent warm temperatures. Rainfall amounts in excess of an inch may cause some creeks in the Buffalo area and lower Genesee basin to approach flood stage, but model consensus keeps the steadier rains to the north of these basins with basin averaged between a half inch and an inch. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for NYZ006>008. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ019. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...APFFEL/CHURCH/HSK MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/HSK HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/HSK
Office: BGM FXUS61 KBGM 191151 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 651 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The sky will turn cloudy this morning, with rain developing mid day through afternoon. The steadier rain will shift into mainly Central New York tonight, and Northern New York on Tuesday, as a warm front lifts through the region. This front will also usher in near record warmth for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 355 AM update... Near term period will feature an anomalous surge of warm air advection, which will be accompanied by a wave of rain that with time will shift northward with a lifting warm front. Record highs are anticipated Tuesday. High thin clouds are starting to drift into the region via west-southwest flow aloft, but quite a lot of radiational cooling has been able to counterbalance increasing warm air advection, especially east of I-81 where temperatures are in the 20s and even a couple points in upper teens such as Sidney. Lows have likely been reached however, and temperatures will drift up for the remainder of the night as has already been occurring in the Finger Lakes region. Penn Yan is now 35 degrees. Elmira rose from 26 to 32 degrees from 2 to 3 AM. Strong pressure gradient currently exists in our area between departing high and low pressure in the Great Lakes, and above the shallow surface inversion this is being realized with stronger winds at hilltops and in south-to-north channeled areas such as in the Finger Lakes. This wind just off the surface is also driving warm air advection. Warm front will develop in place today, as embedded wave aloft also zips into the region. This will cause rain to break out over all of Northeast PA/Central NY late morning through especially afternoon. Temperatures will be surging above freezing, but there is a very small chance that if any light showers run out ahead of the main rain, spotty ice could occur on the very front end. It is not expected, but it will need to be watched closely. Additional smaller waves will run along the warm front as it lifts north, taking showers primarily into Central NY tonight- Tuesday morning, and even mainly just north of the NY Thruway by mid-to-late Tuesday. Total rain amounts today through Tuesday are figured to range from a few tenths in Northeast PA-Southern Tier NY; to one-to-two thirds of an inch for the remainder of Central NY. However, north of the NY Thruway may push closer to a full inch, especially northern Oneida County. Rain and snowmelt, especially coming off of Tug Hill, will cause higher than usual flows in Oneida County, which along with any lingering ice in waterways could lead to localized flooding issues. Despite initial cool temperatures, daytime highs of upper 30s to mid 40s are expected today. However, actual calendar day highs will likely occur as we hit midnight since temperatures will continue to climb while we get deeper into the warm sector. By dawn Tuesday 40s to low 50s are anticipated, and of course this will be just the start. Except for upper 50s in northern Oneida County and perhaps highest Catskill elevations, we are confident in widespread 60s for highs Tuesday, and some of the lower elevations towards the Finger Lakes could even get 70 degrees. Daily records are 58 in 2016 for Binghamton Airport, 61 in 1951 for Syracuse, and 63 in1951 for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (Avoca PA). We are currently forecasting those records to be broken by between 2-5 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 4 AM Update... The big story will be the near record temperatures with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Tuesday night will be dry but a cold front with light rain will move through in the afternoon. Most of the showers will be behind the front. Rainfall amounts will be light. These temperatures will continue to melt the snow adding to the runoff. Rivers and streams will be high with minor flooding possible. Ice jams will again be a wild card. Rivers will rise enough so that the ice could move. The most water equivalent in the snow is over northern Oneida County with 2 to 6". Higher terrain in Chenango/Cortland Counties 1 to 2". Finally rest of area mostly under an inch. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 4 AM update... Little change to the forecast. Continued leaving out the chance of freezing rain Friday morning due to low chances and amounts combined with being 4 days out. Rain amounts Wednesday night to Friday light but steadier and heavier rain Friday night will keep rivers and streams high. Another batch of showers for Sunday. Previous discussion... An anomalously warm, southwesterly flow pattern will continue through the long term period. After a cool/dry shot Wednesday night into Thursday, southwest flow will set up again for the end of the period. A few weak systems will pass through the region Friday into Saturday, with the slight chance for mixed precipitation early Friday. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the event and low QPF numbers, we are not mentioning freezing precipitation for Friday morning. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will continue at first today, though an increasing SSW low level jet will cause LLWS for KELM-KSYR-KRME early this morning. LLWS will never quite leave KRME, but will back off the other terminals mid morning-early afternoon as surface winds increase out of the south at 12-16 knots, only to return mid afternoon through tonight. A warm front will be in the vicinity with rain developing late morning and persisting through afternoon; see TAFs for specifics on timing. Flight category will drop into Alternate Required this afternoon for most terminals (iffy at KELM) with KBGM-KAVP into IFR ceiling this evening. Rain will continue through tonight KSYR-KRME but will come to an end for the other terminals. That being said, patchy fog/mist will linger for awhile as a visibility restriction. Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Restrictions and showers still possible Tuesday morning, especially KSYR-KRME, otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Chance of restrictions and rain showers. Rain may mix with snow late Wednesday night- Thursday morning for the NY terminals. Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with chance of rain showers, possibly mixed with snow. Local restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...DJP/TAC AVIATION...MDP