ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 040518
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
118 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will taper off early this
evening in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High pressure
will bring dry conditions for Friday through Sunday, with
increasing heat and humidity by Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 730 PM EDT, severe weather has ended across the
region. Any remaining showers and rumbles of thunder will remain
below severe limits early this evening and gradually diminish.
High pressure builds into the region overnight with clearing
skies and less humid conditions. Some patchy fog will likely
form in areas that saw rainfall this afternoon. Low temperatures
will fall back into the 50s with some upper 40s across the
Adirondacks and southern Greens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected Friday through Saturday night along
with mostly sunny/clear skies. Temperatures will be a bit below
normal Friday into Friday night, with highs in the 70s to lower
80s, and lows Friday night dropping into the 40s to lower/mid
50s. Low PWAT's, clear skies and light/calm winds should allow
temps to drop off rapidly after sunset, so expect somewhat
chilly temps across the southern Adirondacks Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Sunday, hotter and more humid conditions develop, with high
temps reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. As dewpoints climb
well into the 60s, heat indices could reach the mid 90s across
portions of the Mohawk and upper Hudson River Valleys. Similar
heat indices are possible Monday. Some heat advisories may need
to be issued should confidence in these heat indices increase.
Will have to watch for some potential ridge rolling disturbances
beginning late Sunday and continuing through Monday. Best
chances would be across northern areas, however there remains
low confidence at this time to include anything more than some
slight chance/low chance PoPs.
A frontal system looks to bring better chances for
showers/thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. The front may
stall near or just south/east of the region thereafter, bringing
scattered showers/thunderstorms to portions of the area through
late week. It looks to remain warm and humid much of next week,
with highs mainly in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z/Sat...VFR conditions are mainly expected the next
24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU, except for some radiational
mist/fog that may briefly form at KGFL/KPOU due to clear skies,
calm winds and recently wet ground. We used TEMPO groups from
06Z-10Z/FRI to account for the IFR/LIFR mist fog. The mist/fog
should burn off quickly after 10Z/FRI with mostly clear skies
aside for a FEW- SCT cumulus in the 5-6 kft AGL range developing
in the afternoon. The winds will be light to calm prior to
sunrise, and then will increase from the N/NW at 8-13 KT with
some gusts around 20 KT in the late morning thru the afternoon.
The winds will decrease by 23Z/FRI from northwest at 7 KT or
less.
Outlook...
Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday to Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 040544
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in Friday then centers over the area Friday
night. The high passes offshore Saturday through Sunday while still
remaining in control. Lows to our north and south kick high pressure
far out to sea by Sunday night. A cold front approaches from
the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across the area
Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*Ideal conditions are expected for Independence Day celebrations.
As a cold front continues to push offshore high pressure will build
in from the Great Lakes today, centering itself over the area
tonight. At the same time, an upper-level trough will push offshore
in response to a ridge building in from the west.
Overall, dry and sunny weather is expected today. We could not have
asked for better weather for any Independence Day festivities and
activities you may may have planned. The cold front has left us a
little cooler this morning with some outlying areas dropping in the
upper-50s. Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid-80s. This
evening's temperatures will drop back into the 70s under clear
skies. Perfect for any planned outdoor celebrations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will push offshore by Saturday morning but remain in
control through Sunday. Simultaneously, an upper-level ridge
will continue to build and center itself over the area through
this same time period.
With sunny, dry conditions expected through the weekend from
widespread subsidence, warmer temperatures will naturally follow in
July. Highs Saturday will be in the mid/upper-80s followed by Sunday
in the upper-80s to low-90s. Increased low level winds from a LLJ
should lead to breezy conditions on Sunday into early Sunday night.
Given the flow will be southerly, this may also aid in warmer
temperatures and higher dewpoints on Sunday. Dewpoints Saturday
in the upper-50s to low-60s increase into the mid/upper-60s on
Sunday. This will make things feel a little muggier out on
Sunday.
Surface lows far to our north and south Sunday night along with a
flattening ridge aloft will kick surface high pressure out to the
east. Despite this, nothing passes close enough to kick off any sort
of precipitation, so expecting conditions to remain dry through
Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A cold front approaches the region on Monday and moves across the
area on Tuesday. The front eventually stalls south of the
forecast area during the middle of the week.
* Expect a period of unsettled weather with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.
Monday appears to the the warmest day of the week with highs in the
80s and lower 90s. Highs for the remainder of the long term will be
in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds into the region through the TAF
period.
VFR. Light and variable winds through about 12-13z. Winds become NW
and increase this morning, becoming around 10 kt in the afternoon,
with gusts toward 20 kt possible. Winds become light once again
Friday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional on Friday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night through Saturday night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.
Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday through
Saturday night. Near-SCA gusts are expected on Sunday with seas
on ocean waters climbing to 4 ft Sunday night.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Monday and
Tuesday. SCA conditions may return for the middle to end of next
week with seas building to 5 ft or greater.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through the middle
of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lingering southerly swell of 2-3 ft 6-7s will produce mainly a
low rip current risk on Friday, except for a moderate risk for
the beaches from Smith Point to Montauk Point. A low rip current
risk is expected for all beaches on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR
HYDROLOGY...BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 040521
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
121 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area
today...resulting in plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions
for the Independence Day holiday. The high will then slide off the
mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...with a southwesterly
flow on its backside allowing heat and humidity levels to build
again...though mainly dry weather will continue through Sunday. A
cold front will then slowly move south across the region and bring
renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface-based ridging sprawled from the central Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley will settle directly across our area today...while
heights aloft also will rebound some in the wake of Thursday's
system. This will result in simply spectacular weather for our
nation's birthday featuring plentiful sunshine...light winds...and
comfortable temperatures/humidity levels...with 850 mb temps of +9C
to +13C supporting highs in the mid-upper 70s...and surface Td's
only running in the lower-mid 50s.
The axis of the surface ridge will then slowly drift southeastward
to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight...allowing for
continued fair/dry and comfortable weather. Expect temperatures to
primarily range through the 60s by the start time of any evening
fireworks displays...with overnight lows then ranging from the lower
60s near Lake Erie to the lower/mid 50s across the interior of the
Southern Tier and North Country. Enjoy!
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of a flattening mid-level ridge will shift from the Ohio
Valley Saturday to off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. Concurrently,
several partially phasing shortwaves will ripple across Ontario and
Quebec, sending a wave of sfc low pressure and associated cold front
SE into the Great Lakes region. An area of sfc high pressure ahead
of the ridge aloft will move eastward in tandem, becoming well
offshore by Saturday evening. In all this will cause mainly dry
weather to prevail, albeit with increasing summer heat. While
Saturday will be quite warm in most areas, 850H temps climbing to
around +20C on Sunday will cause widespread sfc high temps in the
low 90s across the Lake Plains, potentially even mid 90s in the
Genesee Valley. Given Tds rising into the upper 60s and low 70s,
counties mainly bordering the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and
Livingston County will likely have pockets that meet Heat Advisory
criteria Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, there looks to be two potential exceptions to the
prevailing dry weather this period. The first will be Saturday
afternoon in the western Southern Tier as a plume of deeper moisture
advects over a region of localized lake breeze convergence, possibly
causing a few pop-up showers or tstorms (~20% chc). The second is
Sunday night as the aforementioned cold front nears the region,
though chances remain low (15-25%) given the unfavorable diurnal
timing.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A couple of mid-level shortwaves will slide across the eastern Great
Lakes next week, with the first being right at the start the period
Monday and the second coming sometime between Wednesday night and
Thursday. These will correspondingly bring increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the region, though temperatures are
expected to average near seasonable levels through much of the week.
Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing of the second
shortwave and the extent of any diurnally driven convection
preceding it, though a period of drier weather is expected later
Monday night through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley will settle directly overhead today...with its axis then
slowly drifting to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight. This
will result in VFR conditions prevailing through tonight...with
mainly clear skies today followed by a modest increase in mid and
high cloud cover later on tonight.
Outlook...
Saturday through Sunday...Largely VFR, with just an outside chance
of an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two across the Southern Tier
Saturday afternoon.
Sunday night and Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR restrictions possible.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley will settle directly across the Lower Lakes region
today...with its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and
Pennsylvania tonight. This will result in light to modest winds and
minimal wave action across the lakes for the Independence Day
holiday.
The surface high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline
through the weekend...while a slow-moving cold frontal boundary
edges southward across Ontario and Quebec. The tightening pressure
gradient in between these two systems will result in winds turning
more southwesterly and gradually increasing across the Lower Great
Lakes through the weekend...though conditions are currently expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 032314
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
714 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area this evening,
bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July and into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
635 PM Update...
Severe thunderstorms have exited the region and the watch has
been cancelled.
320 PM Update...
Cleared the western portion of the Severe thunderstorm watch.
The severe thunderstorm threat will continue south and east of
Binghamton through this evening.
130 PM Update...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible in
the watch area this afternoon and evening.
Also, LCL heights for most of the area is now showing about 1250
meters, however, where current storms are in the Finger Lakes
Region the LCL heights are slightly lower and although not
expected, can't rule out an isolated tornado.
1230 PM Forecast...
Short wave and associated surface cold front will be dropping
out of Ontario, Canada and into Central NY this afternoon. This
will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the region
this afternoon and likely will linger into the evening across
NE PA. Plenty of sunshine this morning and early afternoon has
increased instability out ahead of the front with surface based
CAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg across the Southern Tier and
into NE PA. Model soundings show inverted V from about H850 to
the surface, which will help produce strong wind gusts in any
convection this afternoon. SPC Meso Analysis indicating DCAPE
values of 800 - 1000 J/kg, so it should be a favorable
environment for these storms to produce strong downdrafts.
At this time, the most favorable area for severe storms this
afternoon appears to still be across the Southern Tier and into
NE, but can't rule out an isolated cell across Central NY as
well. As the upper trough also swings in late this afternoon and
early this evening, midlevel lapse rates increase above 7C/km,
and with high 0-6km bulk shear around 45 - 50KT, large hail
could be possible, especially in any rotating updrafts. The
tornado threat today is very low, as LCL heights are close to 2K
meters with all the dry air in the low levels and low level
helicity values are also weak. SPC continues to highlight a
Slight Risk for severe weather across areas east of I-81 in NY
and much of NEPA and a marginal risk still exists elsewhere. It
is very possible that a severe thunderstorm watch will be needed
for portions of the area for this afternoon and evening,
depending how cell development evolves over the next hour or
two.
The cold front is expected to be through the region by mid
evening, with high pressure and clear skies building in behind
it. The 4th of July will be an absolutely wonderful weather
day with high pressure in control. NW flow into the area from
Canada will provide a warm, dry airmass with clear skies for
most of the day. May see some elevated smoke high in the
atmosphere due to Canadian wildfires, but looking at current
upstream METSAT shows the smoke isn't as thick as previous
weeks. Temperatures will be in the mid 70 to low 80s and lows
down into the low 50s tomorrow night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...
Stuck with NBM forecast with no changes and high pressure
through the weekend. There still remains a chance to see heat
advisory criteria (HI>= 95F) in NY urban areas on Sunday, but
heat index values will remain PA criteria (HI>=100F).
305 AM Update
High pressure remains in place on Saturday, with sunny skies,
low to moderate humidity and above average high temperatures
well into the 80s for most locations. No changes for Saturday
night, with high pressure still in place but it will be more
humid and muggy, with lows in the 60s. Upper level ridge moves
over the area on Sunday with a southwesterly return flow in the
low to mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring hot and
humid conditions as 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 579dm and 850mb
temperatures jump up to +19C. Latest guidance has afternoon
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide.
These temperatures will combine with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s to bring heat indices into the low/mid 90s in the
valleys. A few locations could get close to heat advisory
criteria, and is something that will need to be watched in the
coming days.
There is a chance for a few showers or isolated t'storms Sunday
night as the upper level trough over the central great lakes
gradually drifts east...but overall likely staying precipitation
free, but humid and muggy with lows in the mid to upper 60s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
No notable changes have been made to the long term forecast and
stuck with NBM through the period. Heat could be an issue on
Monday, but there is some potential for thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening that could limit heating. Those showers
and storms may continue into the overnight hours on Tuesday as
slow moving front sags southward through the region. Behind that
front, models diverge in solutions with timing of an upper
trough towards the end of the week. At this time, NBM brings in
high chance to likely PoPs by Thursday afternoon, but this could
significantly change in the coming days if the upper trough is
delayed or less amplified than currently advertised.
305 AM Update
A rather active summer weather patter is shaping up for much of the
long term period. A weak frontal system passed through the area on
Monday, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the area. Deep layer, 0-6km shear values are progged to be between
20-30 kts, which is modest, but could still allow for some organized
convection to develop in a potentially moderately unstable atmosphere,
as MLCAPE reaches 800-1500 J/kg.
The heat still remains on Monday, as 850mb temperatures surge to
about +20C along and ahead of the front. This will support highs in
the mid-80s to lower 90s...with the highest readings over the
southern tier and NE PA. Dew points will be quite high in the mid-
60s to lower 70s in the afternoon. This will bring the heat index to
the upper 80s to mid-90s...and perhaps even 95 to 100 in the Wyoming
Valley region.
The slow moving front looks to potentially stall or washout near the
Twin Tiers for Tuesday. This will keep a slight chance to chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast on Tuesday. Dew
points don't fall very much at all, but temperatures should be about
5 degrees lower as light northwest winds take hold. Perhaps a few
lingering showers into Tuesday night near and east-southeast of
Binghamton otherwise partly cloudy and seasonably mild. Another weak
front moving in from the Great Lakes region will keep a chance for
showers and isolated t'storms in the forecast Wednesday, along with
warm and humid typical mid summer conditions. There is increasing
timing and position differences in the 00z deterministic model
guidance by the middle to end of next week. With this in mind,
decided to keep the official forecast in line with the NBM ensemble
weighted guidance. This brings another trough and associated front
through the area next Thursday, with high chance to low end likely
PoPs for showers and storms. Temperatures remain steady, just a few
degrees above average during the day and overnight.&&
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 00Z TAF
period. Confidence was too low to include chances for fog at ELM
and BGM.
Outlook...
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with
associated restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL
