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Office: ALY

FXUS61 KALY 211650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1250 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

High pressure will yield mostly sunny conditions and a warm
afternoon. Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, as a
frontal system approaches from the southwest. This storm will
bring some rain to the region for late tonight into Tuesday with
cooler temperatures. Mainly dry and warm weather is expected
for Wednesday through Friday before some showers return for the
holiday weekend.


Sunny day with low humidity levels and very light winds as surface
high pressure moves over the region. The 12Z KALY sounding
shows a few inversions that we should overcome with limited/some
mixing and the strong sun angle. With the subsidence in place,
winds will be light. Highs should reach the mid/upper 70s for
valley areas, with upper 60s to low 70s above 1500 feet.


As high pressure starts to depart off to the east by this
evening, some clouds will start to increase from west to east
for the first half of tonight. Surface low pressure will be
located over the lower Ohio River Valley/Midwest and will be
shifting northeast towards the eastern Great Lakes and western
New York by Tuesday morning.

As the storm's warm front lifts northeast, isentropic lift/warm
air advection will allow for an area of steady rainfall to move
towards the area from western/central New York and northern
Pennsylvania for late tonight. Based off the latest 06z
HRRRX & 00z NAM, rainfall doesn't look to reach our western
areas until around sunrise Tuesday. Lows will mainly be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

As the warm front lifts across the area, have gone with likely
POPs over much of the area for about mid morning through mid
afternoon, as this looks to be when forcing will be best over
the region. By late in the day, precip will start to become a
little more spotty, but southern and eastern areas will continue
to see some additional showers into Tuesday evening as the low
pressure area slides by to the south. Highs on Tuesday only
look to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to the clouds and

During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving across
the area as an upper level shortwave trough shifts from Quebec
towards northern New England. With little moisture available,
not really expecting any more than just a stray shower across
northern areas with this front. Otherwise, expect a partly to
mostly sunny sky with highs in the 70s.


We begin the long term on a rather tranquil and dry note before a
notable pattern shift toward more moisture for the holiday weekend.

As mentioned in the previous excellent discussion, still expecting
an upper level shortwave trough to slide southeast across New
England on Wednesday night. This will allow for a surface cold front
to slide through the region from generally north to south, although
this front will be fairly moisture starved and mainly characterized
by a wind shift and dewpoint change. Still cannot totally rule out a
few showers so included a slight chance on Wednesday. Outside of a
slight chance for showers mainly to the north of the area and into
the terrain, the night should be mostly dry with Wednesday night
temperatures falling into the low 50s, with upper 40s in the high
terrain. Thursday afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s for valley
locations and 60s elsewhere.

Dry weather should continue into Friday as surface high pressure
slides across and remains near the area with temps a few degrees
warmer (around 80 degrees for the Hudson River Valley).

High pressure will slide east of the region by the holiday weekend,
putting our local region into a south to southwest flow regime. This
will increase low level moisture and bring a return of rain chances
during Memorial day weekend as a northern stream upper level
shortwave approaches and eventually crosses the region. Saturday,
depending on where frontal boundaries eventually set up and move, we
will expand the PoPs a bit for the chance of convection. However,
the best forcing with the trough remains further north and west of
the local area. The rain chances appear to increase by Sunday-Sunday
night, with a diminishing trend into Memorial Day Monday. There is
also potential for a tropical moisture connection with this
rainfall, but remains fairly uncertain at this time how these
features will interact. Afternoon highs will gradually cool
throughout the holiday weekend, with highs on Saturday in the upper
70s and overnight lows near 60 degrees.


While most of the time conditions will be VFR, the potential for
MVFR/IFR conditions will exist briefly this morning in spots.
Otherwise, mainly high thin scattered clouds are expected through
the TAF forecast cycle with a thickening of those clouds after
midnight toward 12Z Tuesday.

Winds will be less than 5 kts this morning. Then winds will
generally be from the west-northwest around 5-10 kt.


Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday through Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.


With high pressure overhead, a mostly sunny sky will allow for
RH values to fall to near 30 percent this afternoon with west
winds of 5 to 10 mph.

Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, and RH values
will rise for tonight into Tuesday, with some rain expected
across the region. Most areas will see at least a quarter of an
inch of rainfall on Tuesday with RH values only falling as low
as 60 percent. Light winds in the morning will increase out of
the south at 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday


No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

With high pressure nearby, dry weather is expected today into
most of tonight. A storm system will bring a period of rainfall
late tonight through Tuesday evening, with basin average
amounts of a quarter to half inch. This rainfall will have
little impact on area rivers and streams, with flows expected to
remain steady over the next few days.

Dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms will be
over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/Wasula

Office: OKX FXUS61 KOKX 211437 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region today and moves off the southern New England coast tonight. A warm front will lift through Tuesday afternoon followed by a cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the frontal passage and remains through Saturday. Another frontal system impacts the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Current forecast is on track, with only minor changes made to reflect current conditions. Ridging builds into the area today providing mostly sunny and warm weather. Light northerly winds will give way an afternoon seabreezes at the coast. Highs will generally range between mid and upper 70s, although a few 80 degree readings will be possible in metro NY/NJ. Humidity levels will be much lower than yesterday, making it more comfortable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper ridge axis shifts to the east tonight as a shortwave trough over the Midwest approaches. Guidance is in good agreement that pcpn hold off until aft 12z Tue except perhaps in Orange county. Overrunning pattern strengthens as the day progresses and a warm front lifts into the area. Model soundings are indicating some weak elevated instability late Tue aftn through Tue eve, in addition to increasing PWATS (maxing out between 1.50 and 1.75 inches). Any tstms that develop have the potential to produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Warm front should lift through the area during the aftn and early eve as parent low tracks through New England, followed by a cold front Tue night into Wed morning. High temps are tricky on Tue and will depend on timing of the warm fropa. High pres returns behind the cold front with dry weather and a return to above normal temps on Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds across the area Wednesday night and remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes into this evening, then moves off the NJ coast tonight. A warm front approaches from the southwest toward Tuesday morning as low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. VFR through the TAF period. Showers will be approaching KSWF toward 12Z Tuesday. N-NE flow 5-10 kt will become light and variable early this afternoon, with sea breezes developing shortly thereafter and into this afternoon at all terminals, except at KSWF, where a light W flow is forecast. Winds become light and variable again tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1 hr off from forecast. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from forecast. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 2-3 hrs off from forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday morning...VFR. .Tuesday afternoon/night...MVFR in any showers, otherwise VFR. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. S winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday afternoon. .Wednesday morning...MVFR possible in the morning with lingering rain showers. .Wednesday afternoon-Friday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-25KT possible Wednesday-Wednesday night. && .MARINE... High pressure was building into the forecast waters from the west and a light northerly flow was across the waters. Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet have subsided to below 5 feet, so the SCA was cancelled. A weak surface pressure gradient force will continue into late in the week. The forecast waters will remain below SCA levels through Friday. With an increasing southwesterly flow Friday into Saturday, ocean seas may build to 5 feet or more late Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected with the frontal system Tue into Wed. Other than some isolated nuisance ponding with any heavy rain from tstms late Tue aftn/eve, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig NEAR TERM...Fig/Maloit/JP SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JM/19 MARINE...Fig/Maloit HYDROLOGY...Fig
Office: BUF FXUS61 KBUF 211448 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1048 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fair weather to the region today with a good deal of sunshine and light winds. A complex of showers and few thunderstorms will propagate across Western New York tonight, with a few of these storms potentially bringing heavy rainfall. These storms will push east across Eastern Lake Ontario region tomorrow, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible along lake breeze boundaries tomorrow afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will bring pleasant and seasonal conditions along abundant sunshine. Temperatures should top off in the low to mid 70s. A shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning will advance eastward, rounding a SE ridge of high pressure tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front will be moving across the Ohio Valley. This shortwave will bring a cluster of showers and thunderstorms forming within 500 J/KG of elevated instability. A LLJ of 35 knots riding along the front will enhance precipitation, with an axis of heavy rain possible along leading edge of the jet, and just to the north of the surface warm front. PWATS will rise to 2 to 2.5 SD above normal, with an axis of 1.25 to 1.50 inches crossing WNY tonight. Placement of heavy rain is still uncertain with varying convective allowing model output, so will blanket WNY with a chance for heavy rain tonight. Overall rainfall amounts will range from a half to one inch. Localized heavier storms or training of storms will likely exceed an inch. Timing...Showers and thunderstorms tonight will likely reach SW NYS around an hour or two before midnight, then across other sections of WNY overnight. Storms should weaken some later in the night with less instability to the east while crossing the Finger Lakes region, and near the Eastern Lake Ontario area around dawn. Model consensus has trended north with a convectively driven wave of low pressure, with this low likely to track from Buffalo to Watertown on Tuesday. The forecast reflects this track, however given the convective nature of this system, minor adjustments to the track still may be needed. A cold front trailing this low will drop southward across the western Southern Tier and into central New York Tuesday afternoon. This is likely to result in another round of showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for severe with this, with a narrow window of ample instability and ample winds aloft ahead of the cold front. The lake breeze may also provide a focus for convection. Otherwise, some scattered showers may linger into Tuesday afternoon. Highs will be within a few degrees of 70 across the region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... After a wet and unsettled day on Tuesday...we can fully expect significant improvement in our weather as we work through this period. A ridge centered over the middle of the country Tuesday night will amplify and drift east Wednesday and Thursday. After a leftover shower or two Tuesday evening...this scenario will lead to clearing skies during the overnight with absolutely beautiful weather to follow for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures both days will average above normal as max temps will end up between 75 and 80. The only potential fly in the ointment will be across parts of the Niagara Frontier Wednesday a localized convergence zone could support some enhanced cloud cover within a few miles of Tonawanda Creek. A relatively dry airmass and subsidence inversion should be enough to preclude the risk for any showers though. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... While the start of this period will feature fair weather with comfortable temperatures and low humidity...conditions will deteriorate during the course of the weekend. In fact...guidance has been fairly consistent with a scenario where our region could pick up a significant amount of rain. More on this in a moment. As we open this period Thursday night and Friday...a flattening ridge will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes. This will keep nice weather in place for our region to end the work week as temperatures will average a few degrees above normal. A weak warm frontal boundary will extend southeast across our region Friday night. While this could lead to some showers during the overnight...there is low confidence with the placement of the boundary. A broad area of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday will push the warm frontal boundary to the north of our region by afternoon. This will place our region well within a notably warmer and more humid warm sector where H85 temps in the vcnty of 16c should easily support highs in the 80s (bit cooler higher terrain and North Country). Being in the warm sector...the vast majority of the day should be rain free. A shower or two cannot be ruled out though...especially in the North Country in the vcnty of the exiting warm front during the morning...and across the Southern Tier in the afternoon where the most unstable environment will be in place. The aforementioned area of low pressure will track to the east to Quebec Saturday night and Sunday...dragging its associated cold front across our region in the process. There is a good representation of ensemble members from the GEFS/ECMWF that suggest that this front could contain a few subtle waves...which would help to slow its eastward progress through our region. Meanwhile...a potentially worrisome combination of systems over the sub tropics (30 N) will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture out of the eastern GOMEX. A nearly stationary mid level low near New Orleans and a newly formed Bermuda High centered 500 miles east of Florida will establish a deep plume of tropical moisture that will be directed to the north along the spine of the Appalachians. This moisture will then interact with the aforementioned cold frontal boundary...the same one that could slow or temporarily stall over our forecast area. There is the risk that the timing of the front and arrival of the tropical moisture could place part of our region in an area of heavy rain for Sunday/Sunday night. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure today will bring VFR flight conditions with light winds. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will near the region tonight...generally after midnight. Some of this activity may become heavy with visibilities dropping to IFR. Outlook... Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday through Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will bring fair weather to the lakes and rivers today, with light winds and minimal waves on the lakes. An easterly wind developing tonight ahead of a surface warm front will bring a moderate chop to the western Lake Ontario waters...possibly to near small craft advisory threshold by early Tuesday morning. These winds will quickly veer to westerly and diminish Tuesday with another period of fine boating weather expected through much of the work week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas/Zaff SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas
Office: BGM FXUS61 KBGM 211404 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1004 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be a pleasant Spring day, with a fair amount of sunshine, and warm temperatures. A frontal complex, will approach the area late tonight, then move through on Tuesday. This system, will bring our next shot of showers and a few thunderstorms. Dry weather will return for Wednesday to Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 am update... Fog burned off by 9 am. A thin overcast will remain for the rest of the day before thicker clouds come in this evening. Upped temperatures a few degrees to be closer to guidance which has been close on days like today. Rain showers move in after midnight. 415 am update... GOES-East imagery, surface observations, and web cams, all show areas of stratus clouds and fog, across much of CNY and NEPA early this morning. We expect it will take until the 8-9 am time frame to burn the low clouds and fog off. Thereafter, we should enjoy filtered sunshine through thin high cloudiness for much of the day. Such insolation, combined with the beginnings of low-level warm advection, should allow highs to climb well into the 70s for most locales. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 430 am update... Things quickly go downhill tonight, as the next short-wave approaches from the Ohio Valley, along with an associated surface low from the central Great Lakes region, and a warm frontal boundary. Deepening moisture and increased forced ascent should bring a period of steadier rain into the forecast area from west-east after midnight. Some elevated instability could sneak into our far western and southern zones in the pre- dawn period, so we inserted the mention of isolated thunder in these areas. Lows by daybreak Tuesday will range in the 50s. On Tuesday, the above mentioned surface low is progged to track right across NY State, with the warm front sluggishly crossing the Finger Lakes region and portions of NEPA. It is these areas that should at least briefly emerge into the warm sector, with some developing instability (perhaps on the order of 500 j/kg ML CAPE) and thunder potential. Farther to the east, it is quite possible (perhaps likely), that the warm front will not make it, with an occluded frontal passage by early evening. Thus, these latter areas (namely the western Catskills, portions of the Poconos, and places otherwise east of the I-81 corridor in CNY) will be cooler and more stable, with only a few rumbles of thunder anticipated, at worst. Overall, clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures down on Tuesday, as compared to what we'll see this afternoon. Afternoon highs Tuesday will range from the lower 60s over the higher terrain of the Catskills, to the lower 70s over parts of the Finger Lakes region, as well as the Wyoming/Lackawanna Valleys in NEPA. Tuesday night, any lingering early evening showers should quickly push off to the east, as the trailing cold/occluded surface boundary sweeps through. Clouds may be slow to depart though, with weak mixing post frontal passage, and the likelihood of trapped moisture below a subsidence inversion aloft. Our western areas (the Finger Lakes/central southern tier regions of CNY) will likely be the first to see partial clearing in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Lows by daybreak will again range in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 325 AM Update... Little change from prior forecast, with generally dry and pleasant period Wednesday through Friday, followed by increasing chances for showers and perhaps thunder over the weekend. Canadian GEM is still fairly wet Saturday, but trend in ECMWF and especially GFS is towards holding things off one more day. Second half of the weekend looks more unsettled than the first. Previous discussion... Warmer Wednesday with fewer clouds as high pressure builds in late in the day. Highs in the 70s. A large area of high pressure moves across the area Thursday then weakens Friday off the coast. Both days will be dry. Highs Friday get into the upper 70s to around 80. Rain showers and possibly thunderstorms return for the weekend probably starting Saturday afternoon. An upper level trough moves slowly out of the Plains with a surface cold front ahead of it. There will be a deep southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and northeast US. This will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s with some humidity. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 10am update... Valley fog is gone and VFR expected the rest of the day into tonight. Fog burned off between 11 and 1320z. 12Z Update... Moisture from recent rains, along with mostly clear sky and decoupled near calm wind, allowed for solid fog development night for all terminals except KSYR overnight. Lingering restrictions will be possible initially at 12Z but rapid improvement will occur. Dry high pressure will provide for a very quiet VFR day with just some scattered high clouds above 20 kft agl. Winds generally variable or light northwest around or less than 5 knots, then becoming southeast tonight. Clouds will develop and gradually lower tonight, with rain and perhaps minor restrictions arriving at several terminals towards 12Z Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday through Tuesday night...Occasional restrictions in periods of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MDP/TAC AVIATION...MDP/TAC