ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 211650
AFDALY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1250 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will yield mostly sunny conditions and a warm
afternoon. Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, as a
frontal system approaches from the southwest. This storm will
bring some rain to the region for late tonight into Tuesday with
cooler temperatures. Mainly dry and warm weather is expected
for Wednesday through Friday before some showers return for the
holiday weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sunny day with low humidity levels and very light winds as surface
high pressure moves over the region. The 12Z KALY sounding
shows a few inversions that we should overcome with limited/some
mixing and the strong sun angle. With the subsidence in place,
winds will be light. Highs should reach the mid/upper 70s for
valley areas, with upper 60s to low 70s above 1500 feet.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As high pressure starts to depart off to the east by this
evening, some clouds will start to increase from west to east
for the first half of tonight. Surface low pressure will be
located over the lower Ohio River Valley/Midwest and will be
shifting northeast towards the eastern Great Lakes and western
New York by Tuesday morning.
As the storm's warm front lifts northeast, isentropic lift/warm
air advection will allow for an area of steady rainfall to move
towards the area from western/central New York and northern
Pennsylvania for late tonight. Based off the latest 06z
HRRRX & 00z NAM, rainfall doesn't look to reach our western
areas until around sunrise Tuesday. Lows will mainly be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.
As the warm front lifts across the area, have gone with likely
POPs over much of the area for about mid morning through mid
afternoon, as this looks to be when forcing will be best over
the region. By late in the day, precip will start to become a
little more spotty, but southern and eastern areas will continue
to see some additional showers into Tuesday evening as the low
pressure area slides by to the south. Highs on Tuesday only
look to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to the clouds and
rainfall.
During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving across
the area as an upper level shortwave trough shifts from Quebec
towards northern New England. With little moisture available,
not really expecting any more than just a stray shower across
northern areas with this front. Otherwise, expect a partly to
mostly sunny sky with highs in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We begin the long term on a rather tranquil and dry note before a
notable pattern shift toward more moisture for the holiday weekend.
As mentioned in the previous excellent discussion, still expecting
an upper level shortwave trough to slide southeast across New
England on Wednesday night. This will allow for a surface cold front
to slide through the region from generally north to south, although
this front will be fairly moisture starved and mainly characterized
by a wind shift and dewpoint change. Still cannot totally rule out a
few showers so included a slight chance on Wednesday. Outside of a
slight chance for showers mainly to the north of the area and into
the terrain, the night should be mostly dry with Wednesday night
temperatures falling into the low 50s, with upper 40s in the high
terrain. Thursday afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s for valley
locations and 60s elsewhere.
Dry weather should continue into Friday as surface high pressure
slides across and remains near the area with temps a few degrees
warmer (around 80 degrees for the Hudson River Valley).
High pressure will slide east of the region by the holiday weekend,
putting our local region into a south to southwest flow regime. This
will increase low level moisture and bring a return of rain chances
during Memorial day weekend as a northern stream upper level
shortwave approaches and eventually crosses the region. Saturday,
depending on where frontal boundaries eventually set up and move, we
will expand the PoPs a bit for the chance of convection. However,
the best forcing with the trough remains further north and west of
the local area. The rain chances appear to increase by Sunday-Sunday
night, with a diminishing trend into Memorial Day Monday. There is
also potential for a tropical moisture connection with this
rainfall, but remains fairly uncertain at this time how these
features will interact. Afternoon highs will gradually cool
throughout the holiday weekend, with highs on Saturday in the upper
70s and overnight lows near 60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While most of the time conditions will be VFR, the potential for
MVFR/IFR conditions will exist briefly this morning in spots.
Otherwise, mainly high thin scattered clouds are expected through
the TAF forecast cycle with a thickening of those clouds after
midnight toward 12Z Tuesday.
Winds will be less than 5 kts this morning. Then winds will
generally be from the west-northwest around 5-10 kt.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday through Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With high pressure overhead, a mostly sunny sky will allow for
RH values to fall to near 30 percent this afternoon with west
winds of 5 to 10 mph.
Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, and RH values
will rise for tonight into Tuesday, with some rain expected
across the region. Most areas will see at least a quarter of an
inch of rainfall on Tuesday with RH values only falling as low
as 60 percent. Light winds in the morning will increase out of
the south at 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.
With high pressure nearby, dry weather is expected today into
most of tonight. A storm system will bring a period of rainfall
late tonight through Tuesday evening, with basin average
amounts of a quarter to half inch. This rainfall will have
little impact on area rivers and streams, with flows expected to
remain steady over the next few days.
Dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms will be
over the weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...BGM/JVM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 211437
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region today and moves off the
southern New England coast tonight. A warm front will lift
through Tuesday afternoon followed by a cold front late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the
frontal passage and remains through Saturday. Another frontal
system impacts the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current forecast is on track, with only minor changes made to
reflect current conditions.
Ridging builds into the area today providing mostly sunny and
warm weather. Light northerly winds will give way an afternoon
seabreezes at the coast. Highs will generally range between mid
and upper 70s, although a few 80 degree readings will be
possible in metro NY/NJ. Humidity levels will be much lower than
yesterday, making it more comfortable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridge axis shifts to the east tonight as a shortwave
trough over the Midwest approaches. Guidance is in good
agreement that pcpn hold off until aft 12z Tue except perhaps in
Orange county. Overrunning pattern strengthens as the day
progresses and a warm front lifts into the area. Model soundings
are indicating some weak elevated instability late Tue aftn
through Tue eve, in addition to increasing PWATS (maxing out
between 1.50 and 1.75 inches). Any tstms that develop have the
potential to produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Warm front should lift through the area during the aftn and
early eve as parent low tracks through New England, followed by
a cold front Tue night into Wed morning. High temps are tricky
on Tue and will depend on timing of the warm fropa.
High pres returns behind the cold front with dry weather and a
return to above normal temps on Wed.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area Wednesday night and
remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above
normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be
in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes into this evening,
then moves off the NJ coast tonight. A warm front approaches
from the southwest toward Tuesday morning as low pressure moves
into the eastern Great Lakes.
VFR through the TAF period. Showers will be approaching KSWF
toward 12Z Tuesday.
N-NE flow 5-10 kt will become light and variable early this
afternoon, with sea breezes developing shortly thereafter and
into this afternoon at all terminals, except at KSWF, where a
light W flow is forecast. Winds become light and variable again
tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1 hr off from
forecast.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.
KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from
forecast.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.
KEWR TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from
forecast.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from
forecast.
KHPN TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 2-3 hrs off from
forecast.
KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs off from
forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday morning...VFR.
.Tuesday afternoon/night...MVFR in any showers, otherwise VFR.
An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. S winds G15-20KT
possible Tuesday afternoon.
.Wednesday morning...MVFR possible in the morning with lingering
rain showers.
.Wednesday afternoon-Friday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-25KT possible
Wednesday-Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure was building into the forecast waters from the west
and a light northerly flow was across the waters. Ocean seas east of
Fire Island Inlet have subsided to below 5 feet, so the SCA was
cancelled.
A weak surface pressure gradient force will continue into late in
the week. The forecast waters will remain below SCA levels through
Friday.
With an increasing southwesterly flow Friday into Saturday, ocean
seas may build to 5 feet or more late Friday night into
Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected with the
frontal system Tue into Wed. Other than some isolated nuisance
ponding with any heavy rain from tstms late Tue aftn/eve, no
hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig
NEAR TERM...Fig/Maloit/JP
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...JM/19
MARINE...Fig/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...Fig
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 211448
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1048 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair weather to the region today with a
good deal of sunshine and light winds. A complex of showers and few
thunderstorms will propagate across Western New York tonight, with a
few of these storms potentially bringing heavy rainfall. These
storms will push east across Eastern Lake Ontario region tomorrow,
with additional showers and thunderstorms possible along lake breeze
boundaries tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will bring
pleasant and seasonal conditions along abundant sunshine.
Temperatures should top off in the low to mid 70s.
A shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley this
morning will advance eastward, rounding a SE ridge of high
pressure tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front will
be moving across the Ohio Valley. This shortwave will bring a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms forming within 500 J/KG of
elevated instability. A LLJ of 35 knots riding along the front
will enhance precipitation, with an axis of heavy rain possible
along leading edge of the jet, and just to the north of the
surface warm front. PWATS will rise to 2 to 2.5 SD above normal,
with an axis of 1.25 to 1.50 inches crossing WNY tonight.
Placement of heavy rain is still uncertain with varying
convective allowing model output, so will blanket WNY with a
chance for heavy rain tonight. Overall rainfall amounts will
range from a half to one inch. Localized heavier storms or
training of storms will likely exceed an inch.
Timing...Showers and thunderstorms tonight will likely reach SW
NYS around an hour or two before midnight, then across other
sections of WNY overnight. Storms should weaken some later in
the night with less instability to the east while crossing the
Finger Lakes region, and near the Eastern Lake Ontario area
around dawn.
Model consensus has trended north with a convectively driven wave of
low pressure, with this low likely to track from Buffalo to
Watertown on Tuesday. The forecast reflects this track, however
given the convective nature of this system, minor adjustments to the
track still may be needed. A cold front trailing this low will
drop southward across the western Southern Tier and into central
New York Tuesday afternoon. This is likely to result in another
round of showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk
for severe with this, with a narrow window of ample instability
and ample winds aloft ahead of the cold front. The lake breeze
may also provide a focus for convection. Otherwise, some
scattered showers may linger into Tuesday afternoon. Highs will
be within a few degrees of 70 across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
After a wet and unsettled day on Tuesday...we can fully expect
significant improvement in our weather as we work through this
period.
A ridge centered over the middle of the country Tuesday night will
amplify and drift east Wednesday and Thursday. After a leftover
shower or two Tuesday evening...this scenario will lead to clearing
skies during the overnight with absolutely beautiful weather to
follow for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures both days will
average above normal as max temps will end up between 75 and 80.
The only potential fly in the ointment will be across parts of the
Niagara Frontier Wednesday afternoon...as a localized convergence
zone could support some enhanced cloud cover within a few miles of
Tonawanda Creek. A relatively dry airmass and subsidence inversion
should be enough to preclude the risk for any showers though.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While the start of this period will feature fair weather with
comfortable temperatures and low humidity...conditions will
deteriorate during the course of the weekend. In fact...guidance has
been fairly consistent with a scenario where our region could pick
up a significant amount of rain. More on this in a moment.
As we open this period Thursday night and Friday...a flattening
ridge will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes. This will keep
nice weather in place for our region to end the work week as
temperatures will average a few degrees above normal.
A weak warm frontal boundary will extend southeast across our region
Friday night. While this could lead to some showers during the
overnight...there is low confidence with the placement of the
boundary.
A broad area of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday
will push the warm frontal boundary to the north of our region by
afternoon. This will place our region well within a notably warmer
and more humid warm sector where H85 temps in the vcnty of 16c
should easily support highs in the 80s (bit cooler higher terrain
and North Country). Being in the warm sector...the vast majority of
the day should be rain free. A shower or two cannot be ruled out
though...especially in the North Country in the vcnty of the exiting
warm front during the morning...and across the Southern Tier in the
afternoon where the most unstable environment will be in place.
The aforementioned area of low pressure will track to the east to
Quebec Saturday night and Sunday...dragging its associated cold
front across our region in the process. There is a good
representation of ensemble members from the GEFS/ECMWF that suggest
that this front could contain a few subtle waves...which would help
to slow its eastward progress through our region. Meanwhile...a
potentially worrisome combination of systems over the sub tropics
(30 N) will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture out of the
eastern GOMEX. A nearly stationary mid level low near New Orleans
and a newly formed Bermuda High centered 500 miles east of Florida
will establish a deep plume of tropical moisture that will be
directed to the north along the spine of the Appalachians. This
moisture will then interact with the aforementioned cold frontal
boundary...the same one that could slow or temporarily stall over
our forecast area.
There is the risk that the timing of the front and arrival of the
tropical moisture could place part of our region in an area of heavy
rain for Sunday/Sunday night. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure today will bring VFR flight conditions with light
winds. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will near the
region tonight...generally after midnight. Some of this activity
may become heavy with visibilities dropping to IFR.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will bring fair weather to the lakes and rivers today,
with light winds and minimal waves on the lakes. An easterly wind
developing tonight ahead of a surface warm front will bring a
moderate chop to the western Lake Ontario waters...possibly to near
small craft advisory threshold by early Tuesday morning. These winds
will quickly veer to westerly and diminish Tuesday with another
period of fine boating weather expected through much of the work
week.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas/Zaff
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 211404
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1004 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a pleasant Spring day, with a fair amount of
sunshine, and warm temperatures. A frontal complex, will
approach the area late tonight, then move through on Tuesday.
This system, will bring our next shot of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Dry weather will return for Wednesday to
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Fog burned off by 9 am. A thin overcast will remain for the rest
of the day before thicker clouds come in this evening. Upped
temperatures a few degrees to be closer to guidance which has
been close on days like today. Rain showers move in after
midnight.
415 am update... GOES-East imagery, surface observations, and
web cams, all show areas of stratus clouds and fog, across much
of CNY and NEPA early this morning. We expect it will take until
the 8-9 am time frame to burn the low clouds and fog off.
Thereafter, we should enjoy filtered sunshine through thin high
cloudiness for much of the day. Such insolation, combined with
the beginnings of low-level warm advection, should allow highs
to climb well into the 70s for most locales.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 am update... Things quickly go downhill tonight, as the next
short-wave approaches from the Ohio Valley, along with an
associated surface low from the central Great Lakes region, and
a warm frontal boundary. Deepening moisture and increased forced
ascent should bring a period of steadier rain into the forecast
area from west-east after midnight. Some elevated instability
could sneak into our far western and southern zones in the pre-
dawn period, so we inserted the mention of isolated thunder in
these areas. Lows by daybreak Tuesday will range in the 50s.
On Tuesday, the above mentioned surface low is progged to track
right across NY State, with the warm front sluggishly crossing
the Finger Lakes region and portions of NEPA. It is these areas
that should at least briefly emerge into the warm sector, with
some developing instability (perhaps on the order of 500 j/kg
ML CAPE) and thunder potential. Farther to the east, it is
quite possible (perhaps likely), that the warm front will not
make it, with an occluded frontal passage by early evening.
Thus, these latter areas (namely the western Catskills,
portions of the Poconos, and places otherwise east of the I-81
corridor in CNY) will be cooler and more stable, with only a few
rumbles of thunder anticipated, at worst. Overall, clouds and
precipitation will keep temperatures down on Tuesday, as
compared to what we'll see this afternoon. Afternoon highs
Tuesday will range from the lower 60s over the higher terrain of
the Catskills, to the lower 70s over parts of the Finger Lakes
region, as well as the Wyoming/Lackawanna Valleys in NEPA.
Tuesday night, any lingering early evening showers should
quickly push off to the east, as the trailing cold/occluded
surface boundary sweeps through. Clouds may be slow to depart
though, with weak mixing post frontal passage, and the
likelihood of trapped moisture below a subsidence inversion
aloft. Our western areas (the Finger Lakes/central southern tier
regions of CNY) will likely be the first to see partial
clearing in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Lows by daybreak
will again range in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
325 AM Update...
Little change from prior forecast, with generally dry and
pleasant period Wednesday through Friday, followed by increasing
chances for showers and perhaps thunder over the weekend.
Canadian GEM is still fairly wet Saturday, but trend in ECMWF
and especially GFS is towards holding things off one more day.
Second half of the weekend looks more unsettled than the first.
Previous discussion...
Warmer Wednesday with fewer clouds as high pressure builds in
late in the day. Highs in the 70s.
A large area of high pressure moves across the area Thursday
then weakens Friday off the coast. Both days will be dry. Highs
Friday get into the upper 70s to around 80.
Rain showers and possibly thunderstorms return for the weekend
probably starting Saturday afternoon. An upper level trough
moves slowly out of the Plains with a surface cold front ahead
of it. There will be a deep southerly flow of moisture from the
Gulf into the Ohio Valley and northeast US. This will keep
temperatures in the 60s and 70s with some humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10am update...
Valley fog is gone and VFR expected the rest of the day into
tonight. Fog burned off between 11 and 1320z.
12Z Update...
Moisture from recent rains, along with mostly clear sky and
decoupled near calm wind, allowed for solid fog development
night for all terminals except KSYR overnight. Lingering
restrictions will be possible initially at 12Z but rapid
improvement will occur. Dry high pressure will provide for a
very quiet VFR day with just some scattered high clouds above 20
kft agl. Winds generally variable or light northwest around or
less than 5 knots, then becoming southeast tonight. Clouds will
develop and gradually lower tonight, with rain and perhaps minor
restrictions arriving at several terminals towards 12Z Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Occasional restrictions in
periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP/TAC
