nv discuss
Office: LKN
FXUS65 KLKN 301823
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1123 AM PDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...An occluded front across central Nevada will be the
focus for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. High pressure will build across the Great
Basin Thursday and Friday with accompanied drier and warmer
conditions. A stronger frontal system will bring widespread rain
and mountain snow late Friday night through this weekend. High
pressure looks to bring a return to drier conditions into the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night
Last night's cold front has stalled across central Nevada this
morning, currently draped in a line from near Ely to Austin,
Nevada. This will be the focus for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms with peak afternoon instability from 200 to 300 J/kg
and a 30% chance for thunder across northern Nye, southern Lander
and Eureka, and White Pine Counties. Showers will linger longest
into the early overnight across central Nye and southern White
Pine Counties as the frontal boundary slowly sags southward.
Otherwise partly to mostly cloud conditions in these areas as
showers dissipate with mostly clear conditions along and north of
I-80 late tonight. Precipitation amounts will be on the lighter
side, with locally higher totals in stronger showers and
thunderstorms (30% chance for a quarter of an inch or more for
southern White Pine County).
Drier and warmer conditions heading into Thursday as the frontal
boundary sags further southward into far southern Nevada and
Arizona. Highs climb back to slightly above seasonal normals into
the upper 60s to lower 70s with pleasant conditions for May Day.
Clear and chilly Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday
A rather weak pressure pattern is expected Friday between an
upper-level area of low pressure over the Great Basin and an
Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure just off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. High temperatures throughout Northern and
Central Nevada Friday afternoon will be six to eight degrees above
normal for this time of year. The Eastern Pacific trough of low
pressure will deepen just off the west coast of the United States
Friday night. An upper-level area of low pressure will develop in
the base of this trough over Northern California Saturday. This
cyclone aloft will move southward down the coast of California
Saturday night.
Strong, gusty south winds near 45 mph are possible in White Pine,
Northern Nye, and Southern Eureka Counties Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. A Wind Advisory may be required. There is a
marginal risk (5-15%) of excessive rainfall for valleys in the
western portion of the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.
Heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding of low-lying and poor
drainage areas. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of
Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be locally heavy
rainfall, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning strikes.
The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will move
eastward into Southern Nevada Sunday. This cyclone aloft will
meander around Southern Nevada Sunday night through at least
Monday evening. A few strong thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday. Periods of mountain snow
and valley rain will persist Sunday through Monday evening.
Precipitaion could linger into Tuesday, before finally coming to
an end by next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period, especially at
KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through 02Z at KELY and 06Z at KTPH, though confidence remains
only around 30% and, thus, stuck with Prob30 for thunder mention
at these terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kt with occasionally
stronger gusts from 15 to 20 kt. Stronger gusts with with
variable directions possible in showers and thunderstorms at KELY
and KTPH through 06Z. Winds mostly light and variable with a
northeasterly prevailing direction (southerly at KELY) tonight and
into Thursday.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
84/87/84
Office: VEF
FXUS65 KVEF 301959
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1259 PM PDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected in the eastern Sierra and southern Great Basin today,
moving further to the south tomorrow. Gusty outflow winds may occur
with some storms. A stronger weather system arrives this weekend,
bringing gusty winds, widespread shower potential, and a sharp
decrease in temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday.
The upper level disturbance, currently centered over the central
California coast, will be the main driver of weather through the
short term as it moves southeast. First, showers and thunderstorms
are expected this afternoon and evening in the southern Great Basin
and eastern Sierra as the trough axis moves through the area. PWATs
are in the .5 to .6 inch range, which is 140 to 160 percent of
normal for this time of year. High resolution guidance suggests some
cells may produce gusty outflow winds of around 30 mph. Outside of
storms, breezy southwesterly winds in the Mojave Desert should
decrease this evening and remain light on Thursday.
The disturbance becomes centered over Southern California tomorrow.
By the afternoon, PWATs increase to the .7 to .8 inch range (150 to
200 percent of normal) over much of the forecast area. Moisture
combined with modest instability under the low should create a
favorable environment for isolated shower and thunderstorm
development, mainly along and north of Interstate 15. The primary
threat appears to be gusty outflow winds. Forecast soundings show
inverted-V patterns with bases of 8,000 to 10,000 feet and upwards
of 800 J/kg DCAPE. Peak gusts of 35 to 40 mph may occur. With high
cloud bases and dry air near the surface, little precipitation is
expected to reach the surface in the valleys.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
Model clusters remain in good agreement with each other, aside
from the usual small differences in timing. Speaking of timing,
there is a noticeable slowing trend in the models, which is not
unusual. Friday, the weak pesky upper low is expected to begin
ejecting to the east as the long-advertised big trough approaches
the West Coast. This will allow temperatures to rise a few more
degrees, and Friday is expected to be the warmest day for most of
our area. There may be a few isolated weak showers/sprinkles
lingering in the area Friday but mid level moisture will begin to
thin out. Saturday is still expected to be the windiest day as
the big trough comes ashore, with widespread gusts of 40+ mph
across the region. Temperatures will begin to fall, but here is
where the slower timing begins to come in. If this indeed comes to
pass, the cooling will be felt more in our western zones, and
areas farther east such as the Colorado River Valley and Mohave
County could be similar to or even slightly warmer than Friday.
Precip chances will also begin to increase in the northwest corner
of our CWA. Sunday, precip chances reach their maximum, with the
greatest chances in the southern Great Basin and the lowest
chances south of I-40. Temperatures also crash hard as the trough
evolves into a closed low and passes overhead. Highs should be 10
to 20 degrees cooler than Saturday, with some record coolest high
temperatures for May 4th in jeopardy. The models' slowing trend
also shows on Monday and Tuesday, as the low is much slower to
move away to the east than in previous runs. If this pans out,
precip chances would linger into Monday, and warmer temperatures
would be delayed/tempered.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
northeast winds will persist through 18Z before shifting to the
southwest by midday. A few gusts to 20 knots are possible through
sunset before decreasing below 10 knots and turning more westerly.
Light and variable winds develop before daybreak, followed by
northeast to east winds by midday. A few showers near the field
will be possible after 22Z tomorrow, and a rumble of thunder cannot
be ruled out during the late afternoon. Overall, VFR conditions
will persist with bases remaining AOA 10kft AGL through tomorrow
morning. FEW to SCT clouds with bases down to 8kft AGL are possible
tomorrow afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF Site will be similar to those described for Harry
Reid. Northerly winds are expected to develop at KBIH this
afternoon, although scattered showers and a few embedded
thundershowers this afternoon and evening may cause gusty and
erratic winds at times. Gusty winds out of the west are forecast at
KDAG later this afternoon and evening, with lighter winds returning
by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon, a few showers or
thundershowers are possible across the western Mojave Desert. In
the Colorado River Valley, typical gusty southerly winds can be
expected into this evening, followed by lighter winds overnight.
Away from any shower activity, VFR conditions are expected with
bases remaining AOA 10kft AGL. Bases may fall below 8kft AGL near
any showers, and reduced visibilities can be expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Planz
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
Office: REV
FXUS65 KREV 300810
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
110 AM PDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, particularly south of US-50.
* Seasonably mild weather continues through Friday with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees above season averages.
* Increasing chances for another spring storm to bring back colder
weather, breezy winds, and more rain/snow chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A passing shortwave trough will provide enough forcing and
instability to trigger an additional round of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. The best T-storm potential will
concentrate south of US-50 today (25-35% chance with up to 45%
along the Sierra crest in Alpine and Mono counties).
Areas between I-80 and US-50 will see lesser chances for T-storms
today (10-20%); however, these areas could see more potential for
stronger outflow winds around 45 mph (DCAPE: 1000-1200 J/kg)
versus the storms to the south that will have deeper moisture and
more localized moderate to heavy rainfall risk. Drier air briefly
builds in behind the departing low on Thursday which will leave
any lingering T-storm development (10-20% chances) confined to
Mono County from about Bridgeport southward.
Mild temperatures will stick with us as highs warm to the low-mid
70s through Thursday with Friday reaching the upper 70s to near
80 for W.Nevada, while Sierra valleys reach the mid-upper 60s.
However, that will all change over the weekend as the next spring
storm approaches the region.
The approaching low for the weekend will begin to provide a 15-30%
chance of showers across the Sierra and Sierra Front on Friday,
but Saturday will be the day with the most widespread rain and
snow chances across the region.
Snow levels start above 9500' on Friday before lowering to near
7000' by late Saturday afternoon. While light Sierra snow showers
will be possible during this timeframe, the main window to see a
couple of inches of slushy accumulations on Sierra passes looks to
be Saturday evening into Sunday morning as snow levels dip to
near 6000-6500'. W.Nevada is looking at mainly rainfall with
around 0.25-0.50" of accumulation through the weekend and up to
0.50-1.00" for portions of the W.Nevada Basin and Range, which
will be more impacted by a wrap around rainband on the backside of
the low on Sunday. Overall expect cooler weather through the
weekend with highs in the mid to upper 50s for W.Nevada and upper
40s for the Sierra. Fuentes
&&
.AVIATION...
Another round of afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible as an upper level trough tracks across the region.
25-35% chances for T-storms with periods of MVFR conditions for
KTRK, KTVL, KCXP, and KMEV after 21z with a 10% chance at KRNO.
KMMH will see the best potential (35-40% chance) for T-storm
impacts today with initial development possible as early as 18z.
Period of moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail, and mountain top
obscurations are also possible today. Fuentes
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
