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Office: LKN

FXUS65 KLKN 212052
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
152 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the state through Monday before moving out
Tuesday and Wednesday. A return to dry and mild conditions will
begin Wednesday with a high pressure ridge setting up over the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday.

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
persist through this evening before tapering off a bit for the
overnight hours. However, an embedded vorticity maximum, likely
the meso-low left over from southern NV convection last night,
will move northward into central and north-central NV tonight.
This will be a focal point for convection and continued
instability into the overnight hours so kept thunderstorms in the
forecast to account for this feature. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow everywhere but the
western two-thirds of Humboldt county. Mina concerns continue to
be localized flash flooding, heavier rain over burn scars as well
as lightning and gusty outflow winds. Small hail is likely in the
heavier thunderstorms. A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or
two will linger in Elko county Tuesday with drier conditions
moving in to the remainder of the area as the 500mb trough moves
into UT.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday.

The long term period looks to be a mainly dry period as broad
ridging will be over NV through the rest of next week and into
the weekend. The trough that will pass to the north of NV mid next
week has continued the trend of going more northward. This has
built enough confidence that showers are not likely with only
cloud streaming across northern NV. Temperatures will remain
seasonable for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...This afternoon thunderstorms are expected at KELY,
KEKO, KBAM, and KTPH. The best chance for thunder will be at KELY
and KEKO and a lesser chance at KTPH and KBAM. Showers are
expected at all terminals this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow and will be similar
as today. Low cloud decks will be possible that can cause mountain
obscurations and brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and isolated thunderstorms, relatively
light winds and increasing humidity will mitigate fire weather
conditions through the next few days. Drier conditions settle into
the state midweek but nothing critical as far as gusty winds and
low RH is expected.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93/99/99/93



Office: VEF FXUS65 KVEF 212126 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 225 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A circulation will move from southern California across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona late tonight and early Monday morning providing a threat for additional showers or thunderstorms. A more stable air mass begins pushing into the region Tuesday followed by a strong area of high pressure building through next weekend with well above normal temperatures. && .Discussion...through next Sunday. There will likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight through early Monday morning though coverage probably won't be as extensive as last night. The center of the incoming upper low was near Point Conception this afternoon and a vorticity lobe rounding the base of the low will eject across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona between 06Z and 18Z Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both depict a broad area of fairly extensive precipitation breaking out across Clark, Mohave and eastern San Bernardino counties after 06Z. However, the HRRR is more reserved at indicating convection during the same period and confining it more over Mohave, northeast Clark and eastern Lincoln counties. Will keep PoPs indicative of isolated to scattered cells through Monday morning over Clark and eastern San Bernardino counties. We should see a decrease in activity behind the vorticity lobe similar to what has been observed today. There will be a weak southern branch of the trough that will dig down near northern Baja and move to the east Tuesday, but most of our area will see benign weather by Tuesday which will lead in to a tranquil pattern the rest of the week. A zonal flow Wednesday will precede a strong ridge nosing in from the eastern Pacific which will hold over the region going through the weekend providing above average temperatures with dry conditions and generally light winds. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Wind directions will likely fluctuate this afternoon between 030-070 due to the light nature of the winds. Models continue to indicate a second round of TSRA possibilities overnight/early morning so included VCTS for this possibility around 08Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Early Monday morning, another possibility of showers and storms will occur affecting primary the KEED/KIFP and soon thereafter KVGT/KHND. Included VCTS for the best time frame of this possibility at each site. Otherwise, winds should stay relatively light. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
Office: REV FXUS65 KREV 212214 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 314 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A mild pattern with light winds and above average afternoon temperatures will continue this week for northeast California and western Nevada. A weak low pressure system moving across the region may bring a few light showers to far eastern Churchill and Pershing Counties through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Few changes to the forecast this afternoon. A weak along along the California coast will move through the area and open up over the next 24 hours. Other than some clouds (the first in about a week), there really isn't expected to be much impact. A few showers are possible over central Nevada closer to the plume of moisture which is sitting over eastern Nevada and Utah. After the low moves through, the mean ridge just inland from the coast will amplify some toward the end of the week. A few clouds are possible north of I-80 from time to time as weakening systems move into Washington and British Columbia. With the ridge amplifying, we are now expecting temperatures 10-15 degrees above average by Friday and into the weekend. It still looks dry through the end of the month as wel.AVIOAl, but there are some hints beyond that it may change for early November. We can hope. X && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds are expected for the next several days due to an upper level ridge over the region. Low pressure over eastern and central Nevada could bring light showers to far eastern Churchill and Pershing Counties this afternoon and tomorrow. CL .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno FXUS65 KREV 212228 CCA AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 314 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A mild pattern with light winds and above average afternoon temperatures will continue this week for northeast California and western Nevada. A weak low pressure system moving across the region may bring a few light showers to far eastern Churchill and Pershing Counties through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Few changes to the forecast this afternoon. A weak upper low along the California coast will move through the area and open up over the next 24 hours. Other than some clouds (the first in about a week), there really isn't expected to be much impact. A few showers are possible over central Nevada closer to the plume of moisture which is sitting over eastern Nevada and Utah. After the low moves through, the mean ridge just inland from the coast will amplify some toward the end of the week. A few clouds are possible north of I-80 from time to time as weakening systems move into Washington and British Columbia. With the ridge amplifying, we are now expecting temperatures 10-15 degrees above average by Friday and into the weekend. It still looks dry through the end of the month as well, but there are some hints beyond that it may change for early November. We can hope. X && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds are expected for the next several days due to an upper level ridge over the region. Low pressure over eastern and central Nevada could bring light showers to far eastern Churchill and Pershing Counties this afternoon and tomorrow. CL && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno