nv discuss
Office: LKN
FXUS65 KLKN 160353
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
853 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 849 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
* Heat Advisory for most of Northern and Central Nevada until 9 PM
PDT this evening
* A few strong to severe thunderstorms expected in Northeastern
Nevada this afternoon into this evening
* Red Flag Warning for White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties
until 10 PM PDT this evening due to gusty winds and low relative
humidity values
* Red Flag Warning for Eastern Elko County until 10 PM PDT this
evening due to scattered dry thunderstorms
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue to weaken and most should
dissipate within the next few hours. Red Flag Warnings and the
Heat advisories have been allowed to expire on time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued previously at 1210 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An area of high pressure will be
centered over Arizona today. An upper-level trough of low pressure
will dive southward across Northern Nevada this afternoon into
this evening. This trough of low pressure should provide enough
lift and atmospheric instability for thunderstorm development this
afternoon in most of Northern and Central Nevada. A few severe
thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Elko County this afternoon
into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind
gusts up to 65 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning
strikes. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon in Northeastern Nevada due to scattered dry
thunderstorms. Farther south, critical fire weather conditions are
expected in White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties due to low
relative humidity values and gusty winds.
Now, on to the heat. High temperatures throughout Northern and
Central Nevada this afternoon will be around five degrees above
normal for this time of year, resulting in a moderate risk for
heat-related illnesses. Although heat events like this are
relative common and happen many times a year, heat-related impacts
are possible for those new to the area if simple precautions are
not taken. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the majority of
Northern and Central Nevada until 9 PM PDT this evening. Here are
probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in
Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, July 15th, 2025:
Winnemucca - 80%
Battle Mountain - 75%
Crescent Valley - 75%
Elko - 50%
Carlin - 50%
West Wendover - 30%
A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern
Nevada Wednesday. An upper-level area of low pressure near the
Baja Peninsula will begin to move northward Thursday. This cyclone
aloft may be responsible for thunderstorm development in Central
Nevada both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. A ridge of
high pressure will move eastward across the Silver State late this
weekend into early next week. High temperatures will remain above
seasonal values each afternoon Wednesday into early next week.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in a
moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of
Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon. Moderate forecast
confidence in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in
Northeastern Nevada this afternoon. High forecast confidence in
critical fire weather conditions in most of Eastern Nevada this
afternoon into this evening. Dry thunderstorm probabilities were
increased in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through Wednesday
morning. Winds will be light to breezy out of the West to
Southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts up 25KT possible. scattered
dry thunderstorms are possible at all terminals Tuesday afternoon
and evening with erratic outflow winds up to 35KT and few
lightning strikes the main hazards. Ceilings at Tuesday afternoon
with scattered CU will vary between 08kFt to 12kFT.
AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor.
AMD NOT SKED at KBAM due to communication disruption.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Eastern Elko County this
afternoon into this evening due to scattered dry thunderstorms. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for White Pine and Northeastern Nye
Counties this afternoon into this evening due to wind gusts near
30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 7 percent.
Isolated dry thunderstorm are possible in parts of Eastern Nevada
both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected in Western Humboldt County Friday
due to wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values
as low as 8 percent.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...84
Office: VEF
FXUS65 KVEF 152205
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 305
PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Gusty south winds today yield elevated to critical fire weather
concerns across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona.
* Temperatures decrease throughout the work week with a gradual
rebound over the weekend.
* An uptick in monsoonal moisture later in the week will result in
increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
A shortwave trough dropping out of the PacNW and through the
northern Rockies has flattened the ridge that brought the dangerous
heat yesterday. As a result, temperatures today will top out a few
degrees lower, with the cooling trend continuing throughout the week
as 500mb heights fall and moisture increases. The uptick in PWATs
won't be due to a typical Four Corners high, but rather a cutoff low
to our south. As the low slowly drifts northward, southeasterly flow
and moisture advection will increase, bringing shower and storm
chances to parts of the area. Currently, best odds are Thursday and
Friday from the Spring Mountains and points east where PoPs are 30-
70%, while activity farther west is more isolated. On either side of
these days, the potential for activity should be largely confined to
eastern Mohave County, with maybe an isolated shower/storm in the
Spring Mountains, Sierra, and/or eastern Lincoln County. All of the
typical convective hazards will be in play (flash flooding, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning), particularly on Thursday and Friday
when moisture is greatest. During the weekend, the low is forecast
to move through the Desert Southwest, resulting in westerly flow and
a decrease in moisture.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A system dropping out of the PacNW is inducing gusty
south winds across the area. With limited low-level moisture in
place, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. RH values in Mohave
and Clark counties (15-25%) are just high enough to preclude any
warnings, but Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for Nye and Lincoln
counties until 10PM where drier conditions exist. As moisture influx
continues throughout the week and winds gradually subside, chances
for rapid fire spread will decrease. However, the potential for dry
lightning will increase.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Southerly breezes throughout the TAF period. Best chances
of SSE component during the morning hours, with a more SSW component
expected during the afternoons and evenings. Gusts generally 15-25
knots. A few mid-level clouds around during peak heating, but
otherwise just some lingering wildfire haze. Temperatures remain
100F through 05z and again tomorrow around 19z.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00z Forecast Package...Southerly
to westerly breezes continue this evening with gusts generally 15-25
knots. Winds weaken after sunset but remain elevated through the
night. Similar wind patterns expected tomorrow but with slightly
weaker magnitude. A few mid-level clouds around during peak heating,
but otherwise just some lingering wildfire haze. Thunderstorm
activity should remain east of Mohave County today, but may (~30%)
into eastern portions of the county on Wednesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Woods
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
FXUS65 KVEF 152206
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
305 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Gusty south winds today yield elevated to critical fire weather
concerns across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona.
* Temperatures decrease throughout the work week with a gradual
rebound over the weekend.
* An uptick in monsoonal moisture later in the week will result in
increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
A shortwave trough dropping out of the PacNW and through the
northern Rockies has flattened the ridge that brought the dangerous
heat yesterday. As a result, temperatures today will top out a few
degrees lower, with the cooling trend continuing throughout the week
as 500mb heights fall and moisture increases. The uptick in PWATs
won't be due to a typical Four Corners high, but rather a cutoff low
to our south. As the low slowly drifts northward, southeasterly flow
and moisture advection will increase, bringing shower and storm
chances to parts of the area. Currently, best odds are Thursday and
Friday from the Spring Mountains and points east where PoPs are 30-
70%, while activity farther west is more isolated. On either side of
these days, the potential for activity should be largely confined to
eastern Mohave County, with maybe an isolated shower/storm in the
Spring Mountains, Sierra, and/or eastern Lincoln County. All of the
typical convective hazards will be in play (flash flooding, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning), particularly on Thursday and Friday
when moisture is greatest. During the weekend, the low is forecast
to move through the Desert Southwest, resulting in westerly flow and
a decrease in moisture.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A system dropping out of the PacNW is inducing gusty
south winds across the area. With limited low-level moisture in
place, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. RH values in Mohave
and Clark counties (15-25%) are just high enough to preclude any
warnings, but Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for Nye and Lincoln
counties until 10PM where drier conditions exist. As moisture influx
continues throughout the week and winds gradually subside, chances
for rapid fire spread will decrease. However, the potential for dry
lightning will increase.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Southerly breezes throughout the TAF period. Best chances
of SSE component during the morning hours, with a more SSW component
expected during the afternoons and evenings. Gusts generally 15-25
knots. A few mid-level clouds around during peak heating, but
otherwise just some lingering wildfire haze. Temperatures remain
100F through 05z and again tomorrow around 19z.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00z Forecast Package...Southerly
to westerly breezes continue this evening with gusts generally 15-25
knots. Winds weaken after sunset but remain elevated through the
night. Similar wind patterns expected tomorrow but with slightly
weaker magnitude. A few mid-level clouds around during peak heating,
but otherwise just some lingering wildfire haze. Thunderstorm
activity should remain east of Mohave County today, but may (~30%)
into eastern portions of the county on Wednesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Woods
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
Office: REV
FXUS65 KREV 152045
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
145 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Typical afternoon breezes will produce areas of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions into the weekend.
* Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible each
afternoon through midweek.
* Seasonably hot and dry weather into the weekend with periods of
haze from nearby wildfires.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
While the worst of our latest heatwave is behind us, the rest of the
week and weekend will still be rather hot, just more seasonably so.
Daytime highs each day will be in mid-upper 80s and mid-upper 90s
for Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively. Keep
practicing your heat safety precautions this week and make your
weekend plans accordingly!
Transient low pressure to our north will increase afternoon breezes
across far western Nevada today, which will support a brief 2-4 hour
period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.
Waves may also become a bit more choppy this afternoon on area lakes
such as Pyramid Lake, Lahontan Reservoir, and Walker Lake. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon near the Oregon
border and in Mineral County where chances are 10-15%.
The governing weather pattern will somewhat nebulous leading up to
the weekend, lending little day to day change in the weather.
Temperatures hold steady in the mid-upper 80s/90s this week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in Mono and Mineral
counties each afternoon. Typical afternoon breezes likely maintain
areas of elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon from
midweek onward. Weak low pressure emerges by the weekend, allowing
dry, west to southwest flow to overspread the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances wane in response, and afternoon breeziness will
likely be reinforced -- and thus fire concerns persist this weekend.
-Salas
&&
.AVIATION...
West winds will be breezy into the early evening with surface
gusts of 20-30 kts. Low to moderate LLWS impacts will be possible
at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV until winds subside between 03-06Z. Lingering
heat will maintain density altitude concerns for western Nevada
terminals this afternoon -- especially at KNFL-KLOL-KHTH where
highs near/reach the triple digits.
Smoke is projected to filter south across western Nevada overnight,
which may impact slantwise visibilities at KRNO-KNFL-KLOL Wednesday
morning as the sun rises. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail today.
-Salas
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-004.
CA...None.
&&
$$
