nv discuss
Office: LKN
FXUS65 KLKN 192041
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
141 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Fair and warm weather will continue through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Weather becomes more
active mid-week with gusty winds and an opportunity for wetting
rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Skies are partly to
mostly sunny over northern and central Nevada this afternoon.
Clouds are increasing in central Nevada due to a weak short wave
impulse moving through; an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out during the early evening hours. Not much in the way
of precipitation is expected. Have kept low end pops in the
forecast based on mid-level moisture profile and minor
instability. Look for skies to clear with mostly clear conditions
tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.
For Saturday and Saturday night, a shortwave ridge is expected to
push across northern and central Nevada. Some cloudiness is
expected though most areas will see a return to partly to mostly
sunny skies. Afternoon highs will warm into the upper 60s to mid
70s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible. Quiet and clear
weather will continue through the overnight with lows in the 30s
and 40s. Winds will become light.
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday
Warm, dry conditions expected to continue across the CWA through
early next week. Winds will be breezy out of the west-northwest
Sunday as a weak shortwave and cold front traverses the Great
Basin region. Temperatures will range from the 60s across far
northern NV to the upper 70s across central NV.
An unsettled weather pattern indicated in ensemble guidance will
get underway mid next week as a trough advances towards the CA
coast and provides favorable upper-level dynamics over the region.
By Wednesday, a deformation axis could develop over the state and
bring a SW-NE oriented band of showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence remains low, however, in terms of precipitation amount
and placement. The larger scale troughing pattern across the
western U.S. will continue for late next week, bringing more
widespread rain and mountain snow to the area. Temperatures are
expected to moderate next weekend with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s along with increasing winds.
&&
.AVIATION...Cumulus and a few showers with little to no
precipitation or virga are expected today across White Pine
county including at KELY. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for
all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Few to scattered upper
level clouds will be across the area through Saturday. Breezy
winds from the W-NW expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing
to 10-15 knots Saturday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next
week, however temperatures will also trend warmer which will help
to accelerate the melting of mid and high elevation snowpack.
The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, but may rise to
minor flood stage in the coming days.
The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and expected to slowly recede over the coming days.
The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days, forecast to
reach minor flood stage in the Tuesday timeframe.
The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain in
minor flood stage over the next several days.
Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.
The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to reach action stage
late tonight or Saturday morning. Additional rises are forecast
with the river reaching near flood stage as soon as tonight or
Saturday morning.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
86/90/90
Office: VEF
FXUS65 KVEF 200158
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
700 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Expect the weather will have its ups and downs over
the course of the next week with the pattern transitioning from
high pressure ridging followed by low pressure troughing. This
will result in well above normal temperatures continuing through
Tuesday then cooling back to seasonal levels late next week. In
addition, there will be gusty winds for much of next week and
a chance for showers late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Weak southern stream disturbance moving through the region
today provided just enough lift and cooling aloft to pop a few
isolated thunderstorms along the windward slopes of the Sierra. With
the loss of daytime heating, that activity has diminished with no
recent lightning strikes detected. Further south, under the center
of the passing disturbance there is a small pocket of showers that
may clip our far southern Colorado River zones near Lake Havasu
through early this evening. As this system exits the region
tonight, high pressure will build through the weekend with
temperatures climbing well above normal. Will make some minor tweaks
to the PoP/Sky grid this evening to account for pocket of showers
near Lake Havasu, but otherwise the forecast is in good shape.
-Outler-
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance over the area today will move east tonight with
enhanced southwest winds across the deserts of San Bernardino
County this evening. No significant winds are expected with gusts
generally in the 20-30 mph range. high pressure ridging bringing
us well above normal temperatures and widespread minor and
localized moderate heat risk over the weekend. The gusts will
become more localized by late evening becoming light overnight.
High pressure ridging will bring us well above normal temperatures
over the weekend into early next week with high temperatures
expected to reach and possibly eclipse 90 degrees in Las Vegas and
100 degrees in Death Valley. The unseasonably warm conditions
across the region will raise heat risk into the minor-moderate
category, especially by Sunday and Monday. Minor heat risk levels
will be more widespread while moderate levels will be more
localized to the lower elevation desert areas such as Death Valley
and the Colorado River Valley. At this point, no heat products
are in effect or planned due to the warmer, above normal
conditions we have already experienced the past few days and more
importantly, the extent or upper limit of temperatures that are
forecast. Record highs through Monday are generally around 5-7
degrees above the forecasted high temperatures.
Wednesday through Friday...The weather pattern will become more
active within both the northern and southern jet streams with low
pressure systems potentially bringing impacts to the much of the
western CONUS. Forecast uncertainty is generally high which
currently limits pinning down the extent of impacts that can be
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Diurnal winds with speeds under 10
knots are forecast through tomorrow. Winds pick up out of the east
to southeast this afternoon, switching to the southwest after
sunset. Early tomorrow morning, winds become variable. In the late
morning to early afternoon tomorrow, easterly winds return again.
FEW-SCT high clouds pass through the area as well.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Diurnal winds are expected for terminals in the Las
Vegas Valley. At KBIH, winds increase out of the northwest with
speeds over 10 knots later this afternoon, decreasing in the
evening. Showers may develop over the Sierra in the afternoon, but
are not expected to be within the vicinity of the terminal. Winds
remain over 10 knots at KDAG throughout the forecast period,
becoming gusty in the evening. Southerly winds prevail at KIFP and
diurnal winds are expected at KEED.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Salmen
AVIATION...Meltzer
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
Office: REV
FXUS65 KREV 191936
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1236 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions with typical afternoon breezes will
prevail through the weekend. Above average highs in the 60s for
Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys, with even a few
valleys cresting 80 degrees into Monday. There will be isolated
shower chances near the Sierra today, and lower potential for
southern Mono county through the weekend. The trend continues for
cooler and more active weather returns mid to late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* Warm and dry weekend ahead: Well above normal temperatures and
plenty of sunshine will have it feeling quite warm, especially
with some lower valleys nearing or surpassing 80 degrees. Be sure
to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and keep an eye on those more
sensitive to the warmer temperatures. The warmer temperatures
will also fuel snowmelt in the Sierra, for more details check out
the Hydrology section.
* Warm days means that we're edging back into thunderstorm
season. Main concern for any showers and thunderstorms is along
the Sierra today. As of 1pm, visible satellite showing a few
pops of cumulus clouds across Mono county. There is a 15-20%
chance for a storm or two near Mammoth Lakes, and a 5-10%
chance near Lake Tahoe. It's that time of year, so keep an eye
on the skies if you have outdoor plans or recreation,
particularly in the afternoons.
* It still appears that we will be shifting into a more active
weather pattern for next week with a several troughs setting up
shop over the Eastern Pacific. There are still discrepancies in
the exact track of the incoming shortwaves and troughs, but the
trend is still there for cooler temperatures as well as higher
potential for showers starting as early as Tuesday. Blended
guidance has been consistently showing 20-30% chances for
showers across the Sierra and western Nevada Wednesday onward.
-Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
* VFR conditions will prevail this weekend, outside of a bit of
patchy FZFG Saturday and Sunday mornings. Plan on light surface
winds except for some enhanced breezes Saturday afternoon. For
western NV valley terminals, gusts will reach 20-25 kts, while
Sierra valley terminals will be around 15-20 kts.
* Showers and thunderstorm potential will be confined to the Sierra
from the Tahoe Basin southward into Mono County. For KMMH, 20-25%
chances of showers, with a 10-15% chance of lightning.
-Edan
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Above normal temperatures combined with mostly sunny skies will
increase snowmelt leading to minor to moderate rises in rivers and
creeks draining largely snow covered watersheds. While no flooding
is expected in the area, many waterways will be running cold and
fast, with gradually increasing flows into early next week. The
West Fork of the Carson near Woodfords is expected to rise above
the action stage each night through Tuesday, but remain below
flood stage.
Rivers and streams draining mostly snow covered terrain below
about 7500 feet are likely to see their seasonal peaks by early
next week. Basins with significant higher elevation terrain will
retain plenty of snow for higher flows with subsequent warmups. The
Lower Humboldt is expected to have very high flows for many weeks
with minor flooding likely in May or June, or even into early July.
Exercise caution around rivers and streams, remember mountain
rivers and streams often reach their highest levels from snowmelt
at night.
-TB
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
