FXUS65 KABQ 171219
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
619 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018
12Z TAF CYCLE
Less storm coverage is expected today as drier air moves in from the
southeast. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible mainly across the northern mountains, though
isolated storms can't be ruled out across the west. Brief MVFR cigs
and vsbys are possible as well as mtn obscurations. Much of the
activity will diminish by midnight.
.PREV DISCUSSION...227 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018...
Summer thunderstorms will be around through the forecast period.
There will be subtle day to day changes. A downward trend in storms
is expected today, then leveling off the rest of the week into the
weekend. High pressure will be over CA today, then it will drift to
the Great Basin Wednesday then be near the four corners area
Thursday. It will then hover over or near NM through the weekend,
eventually shifting west into AZ early next week. A back door cold
front will drop down the eastern plains and highlands Sunday night,
resulting in increased convection early next week in the east.
Showers and a few storms continue early this morning over the
northwest and north. The rain is mostly light to moderate. The
activity will gradually diminish into the morning, only to pick up
again this afternoon and evening. But the easterly wave will move to
our east today while high pressure moves into the Great Basin. We
should have less storm coverage today, focusing on the western and
northern mountains. High temperatures will warm over Monday's highs
nearly everywhere, with readings around the century mark on the
High pressure over CA today will move to the Great Basin Wednesday
and strengthen a little. This will suppress thunderstorms activity
some, with the west and central high terrain the favored areas. High
temperatures will continue to climb Wednesday, including triple
digits in parts of the eastern plains.
The upper high will continue to get closer Thursday, reaching the
four corners area or even a little east of there. It will then
wobble around NM late in the week through the weekend. Thunderstorms
will again be favored over the western and central mountains, but the
northeast will join in on the convection, as the steering flow will
allow storms to roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the
northeast late each afternoon and evening. In addition, the NAM
brings a decent windshift into the northeast Wednesday night with
increased low level moisture late this week for the northeast.
The upper high will begin to shift west into AZ early next week. The
resulting northwest flow aloft will allow storms over the central
mountains to move onto the eastern highlands and plains each
afternoon and evening. The east should be active early next week, but
thunderstorms will continue over the western and northern mountains
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will dwindle today as drier mid
level air overspreads much of central and southern NM. The focus for
thunderstorms today will be across the northern mountains where
precipitable water values will remain between 125 and 150% of
normal. Therefore, localized heavy rain will remain a concern,
especially on recent burn scars. Storm motion will be toward the
east around 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation coverage may trend up slightly on Wednesday with a
northerly wind shift, but will overall continue to be more of a down
day, especially since PWATs trend downward considerably across
northern NM. Storm motions will be toward the south around 10 mph.
Activity on Thursday will trend upward a bit more despite the upper
high shifting over northern NM. The NAM, in particular, shows a very
moist boundary moving into northeast NM Wednesday night and nudging
up to the central mountain chain. This would likely force additional
storms to develop Thursday aftn. Storm motions will be slow and
erratic. Similar coverage and storm motion is expected Friday.
Another round of mid level dry air will push into the state from the
southeast on Saturday, limiting convection Saturday afternoon and
perhaps even through Sunday. Early next week, extended models are
showing that a strong back door cold front will race through the
state, and replenish moisture area wide. This would certainly spell
another increase in storm coverage.
Look for temperatures to trend upward today through the end of the
work week. After today, all areas will be near to above normal.
Poor ventilation is expected for much of northwest NM today, and
then across the West Central Mountains Wednesday. Pockets of poor
ventilation will be possible across the northern and western high
terrain Thursday and Friday.
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... NMZ510>515.