Office: ABQ
FXUS65 KABQ 202008
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
208 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
- Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
small hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning will develop each day
through late this week. The threat for excessive rainfall will
focus over low-lying and poorly drained areas, and especially
over recent burn scars.
- Moderate heat risk will return to the lower elevations of the
Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains Friday through Sunday where
highs climb into the upper 90s to near 100F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Storms developing over central and western NM as of 2pm are moving
slowly northward along the high terrain. Cells in the Gila region
are latching onto the high terrain and developing repeatedly over
the same locations. Storms to the lee of the Sacramento Mts are
moving to the northeast but developing northwestward. The 18Z KABQ
RAOB showed a PWAT of 1.01" with weak steering flow below 500mb,
SBCAPE near 800 J/kg, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, steeper lapse rates
above the freezing level and no subsidence inversion compared to
yesterday. Despite the overall airmass characteristics appearing
more favorable for more robust storms with heavy rainfall today,
recent near-term hi-res ensemble guidance is quite anemic thru
this evening. The one noteworthy difference compared to recent
evenings is that storms may have a better chance to develop and
progress out across eastern NM. The latest SPC mesoanalysis does
indicate much better instability with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg
of MUCAPE over the plains. As has been the case with previous
nights, convective activity will likely dissipate thru midnight
then give way to mid level clouds til sunrise.
Monday is still a tricky forecast day with conflicting messages
still advertised from guidance. There is agreement with airmass
conditions becoming more favorable for locally heavy rainfall as
PWATs rise above 1.1" south and east of KABQ. Convective coverage is
still uncertain with the culprit being a remnant MCV that tries to
develop from convection this evening over southeast NM. This wave
then merges northwest into the south to north monsoon plume Monday
afternoon. The 12Z HREF shows the MCV sliding over the Ruidoso area
with the NBM even showing a large QPF bullseye over southern Lincoln
County. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued already for the Ruidoso
area Monday. Showers and storms are expected to fire up farther
north and west along the Cont Divide and the northern mts, however
confidence on coverage and timing is low to moderate. Deep layer
southerly flow will continue Monday night with PWATs rising even
more over the entire area. Showers lingering Monday night should
dissipate after midnight as most guidance indicates at least partial
clearing before sunrise. The one outlier is the HREF which shows
storms persisting in the ABQ metro after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
By Tuesday morning, the well-defined easterly wave currently near
Houston will be located somewhere near the Permian Basin. Meanwhile,
a negatively tilted mid level wave axis will also be positioned over
southeast AZ with a deep tap of monsoon moisture stretching from
south to north across NM. Guidance is in decent agreement that any
cloud cover from Monday night will be at least partially scoured
out with partly sunny skies to start the day. Confidence on sky
cover is not too high since it will depend on how much convection
remains Monday night, especially given the outlier HREF showing
storms for most of the night around the ABQ metro. Nonetheless,
the set up is favorable for numerous to widespread showers and
storms to develop over central and western NM Tuesday afternoon.
This is a complex scenario with the placement, timing, and
interaction of the two mid/upper level waves critical to the
overall focus area for the most intense rainfall. The 13Z NBM has
the 90th percentile QPF bullseyes highest (>0.50") in the Gila
region and along the central mt chain from near Los Alamos and
Santa Fe southward to Ruidoso. Another Flash Flood Watch is a
certainty for at least burn scar areas, with some potential
outside those areas depending on what happens Monday.
Wednesday looks like an active day for central and eastern NM as the
mid level wave axis from AZ ejects northeast across NM. Guidance
holds onto cloud cover longer into Wednesday morning which may
delay convective initiation. Timing of the wave will be crucial
again with a faster passage leading to the focus more into eastern
NM and a slower passage bringing greater storm chances farther
west to the RGV. The 13Z NBM actually has greater QPF on the 90th
percentile compared to Tuesday (>1") and in the same areas along
the central mt chain. There will likely be another Flash Flood
Watch for burn scar areas. Max temps are several degrees cooler
Wednesday on recent guidance which does signal the potential for
cloud cover to hang on longer and for a potential slower trough
evolution.
Thursday thru Saturday look quieter at this time and model runs are
a little more consistent. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian upper level
patterns are similar with a 594dm H5 high building slowly west
into NM. The GFS and ECMWF both have a convectively-aided backdoor
cold front entering northeast NM from the Front Range Thursday.
This would keep the focus for storms along and east of the Sangre
de Cristo Mts with potential for additional flooding around HPCC.
Meanwhile, the remainder of central and western NM dry out
considerably Friday and Saturday. Min RH may be as low as 10% in
the Four Corners and west of the Cont Divide. Temps also begin to
climb with lower elevation areas of the RGV and southeast plains
warming close to 100F.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Storms will continue developing over the central and western high
terrain this afternoon then move slowly north/northeast into the
nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Gusty outflow winds may
reach 40KT ahead of the stronger cells. Direct hits will also be
capable of producing MVFR vsbys in heavy rainfall, especially near
the high terrain. Showers will dissipate thru the evening along the
RGV and nearby high terrain. Meanwhile, a secondary focus area of
SHRA/TS will take shape over eastern NM after 6pm with clusters and
discrete storms stretching from KTCC to KROW thru midnight. Mid
level clouds will then gradually taper off overnight with thicker
cirrus compared to recent days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
The coverage of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall
will continue to focus over central and western NM today then
transition to central and eastern NM Monday through Wednesday,
including the Gila region. Stronger storm clusters will still
be capable of producing strong and erratic downburst winds over
western NM. Burn scar flash flooding will also be moderate to high
through this period. A drying trend is looking more likely toward
the end of the week, especially for central and western NM where
min RH values may fall as low as 10% by the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 64 92 66 90 / 20 10 10 5
Dulce........................... 50 89 49 88 / 20 40 20 40
Cuba............................ 58 87 59 85 / 40 40 40 40
Gallup.......................... 55 87 54 85 / 50 20 20 40
El Morro........................ 56 83 55 81 / 50 40 40 70
Grants.......................... 57 88 57 85 / 50 40 50 60
Quemado......................... 57 83 57 81 / 50 50 50 80
Magdalena....................... 60 85 62 83 / 40 50 60 70
Datil........................... 53 82 56 80 / 50 60 50 80
Reserve......................... 53 89 53 86 / 40 60 40 80
Glenwood........................ 60 93 59 89 / 40 50 40 80
Chama........................... 49 83 49 82 / 20 50 20 50
Los Alamos...................... 62 85 62 83 / 30 40 40 60
Pecos........................... 55 85 58 83 / 30 40 40 70
Cerro/Questa.................... 52 85 56 82 / 20 50 20 80
Red River....................... 45 76 47 74 / 30 60 20 80
Angel Fire...................... 43 78 44 76 / 20 60 20 80
Taos............................ 54 87 55 85 / 20 50 20 60
Mora............................ 52 83 53 80 / 30 50 30 80
Espanola........................ 62 93 62 91 / 20 30 30 50
Santa Fe........................ 60 87 62 85 / 30 40 40 60
Santa Fe Airport................ 60 90 60 89 / 30 30 40 50
Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 93 68 90 / 30 30 60 60
Albuquerque Heights............. 68 94 66 92 / 30 30 50 40
Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 97 66 95 / 30 30 50 40
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 95 67 92 / 30 30 50 40
Belen........................... 63 95 65 93 / 30 30 50 30
Bernalillo...................... 64 96 67 94 / 30 30 50 40
Bosque Farms.................... 63 95 64 93 / 30 30 50 30
Corrales........................ 65 96 67 94 / 30 30 50 40
Los Lunas....................... 63 95 66 93 / 30 30 50 30
Placitas........................ 63 91 65 90 / 30 30 50 50
Rio Rancho...................... 65 95 67 93 / 30 30 50 40
Socorro......................... 66 96 67 93 / 30 30 50 50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 87 60 84 / 30 30 50 60
Tijeras......................... 61 90 62 88 / 30 30 50 60
Edgewood........................ 58 90 57 87 / 30 30 40 60
Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 90 56 87 / 30 30 40 60
Clines Corners.................. 58 84 57 81 / 30 30 40 60
Mountainair..................... 58 87 59 85 / 30 30 50 60
Gran Quivira.................... 57 86 59 83 / 20 40 50 70
Carrizozo....................... 64 88 63 84 / 20 50 50 70
Ruidoso......................... 59 80 58 76 / 20 70 40 80
Capulin......................... 55 85 56 82 / 30 40 10 60
Raton........................... 54 88 55 86 / 30 50 10 60
Springer........................ 54 90 56 88 / 30 40 10 60
Las Vegas....................... 58 87 56 84 / 30 40 30 70
Clayton......................... 63 93 65 90 / 20 20 10 10
Roy............................. 59 89 60 87 / 40 20 20 40
Conchas......................... 65 96 67 94 / 30 20 20 30
Santa Rosa...................... 64 92 64 89 / 30 40 30 40
Tucumcari....................... 64 93 65 90 / 20 10 20 10
Clovis.......................... 69 95 66 92 / 20 20 30 20
Portales........................ 69 97 66 92 / 20 20 30 20
Fort Sumner..................... 67 97 67 94 / 30 30 30 20
Roswell......................... 71 98 70 93 / 30 30 30 20
Picacho......................... 62 89 63 87 / 20 50 40 50
Elk............................. 60 87 60 83 / 20 60 40 60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
