Office: ABQ
FXUS65 KABQ 220030
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
630 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018
.UPDATE...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms south of Laguna Pueblo
stretching down to the Plains of San Augustin have become more
organized along a line. This has increased the chance for these
showers and storms reaching the western half of the RGV from ABQ to
Socorro in the next couple of hours. Have increased PoPs to include
chance for storms along the west half of the RGV through 9pm. The
best chances will be from the South Valley down to Socorro as storms
should feed more toward the southerly inflow.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers with embedded tstm activity continues to push NE across
the western highlands and along the divide this hour, with some VCTS
by KGNT. Some vcsh is expected at KGUP with a clap of thunder not out
of the question over the next hour or so before showers move off to
the NE. The HRRR is showing the cluster of tstms S of KGNT making it
all the way to the Rio Puerco before dying out by ~03Z, so included
a TEMPO for a quick light gust of SW outflow at KAEG. Otherwise,
these showers and storms are expected to taper off over the next 2-3
hours not making it much past the divide. Otherwise, the rest of the
night will see some patchy mid-level clouds with high cirrus
streaming over the state. Some patchy fog could develop again across
the SE, favoring KCVN and included mention of non-categorical low sct
at KROW. Shra and tstm activity re-enters portions of western NM
Monday afternoon and evening.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will change from dry and seasonable tonight and
Monday to wet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday. Subtropical moisture
will move northward across New Mexico Monday night through
Wednesday, as an upper low moves eastward across Arizona and New
Mexico. Significant rainfall will fall Monday night through Wednesday
with the greatest amounts in the northern mountains and areas from
the central mountains eastward. Snowfall levels will generally be
above eleven thousand feet, and the highest peaks in the northern
mountains will receive several inches of snow. A northwest flow aloft
will set up Thursday through Saturday and then become west on
Sunday. It will be dry Thursday through Sunday with temperatures
gradually warming to near normal Saturday and above normal on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Light southerly flow in the low and mid levels today around high
pressure to the east has increased moisture across southern and
western NM, as well as across the Lower and Middle Rio Grande Valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across east central AZ this
afternoon are forecast to move into western NM late this afternoon
and evening, as the right entrance region of the H3 jet develops over
western NM. A few showers and thunderstorms will linger in the
northwest and the higher elevations of the southwest after midnight
tonight, as the H3 jet moves well to the east and instability
decreases. As an upper low slowly moves across southern CA tonight,
clouds will spread eastward across central NM. Southwest flow aloft
and south flow in the low levels ahead of an upper level trough
moving across northern AZ will generate light shower and
thunderstorm activity across western and north central NM Monday
afternoon. Increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures slightly
below normal across southern half of NM Monday, but areas to the
north will be slightly warmer than normal.
Another upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will move inland
across southern CA and northern and central Baja CA Monday night, and
this system will draw additional moisture from northern MX across
western and central NM. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop across western NM Monday night,
while scattered showers will develop across central NM. An east to
southeast low level flow will develop across eastern and central NM
Tuesday between moderately strong surface high pressure in the
Southern Plains states and increasing surface low pressure in western
AZ. As the upper level trough moves across AZ and northwest MX
Tuesday, deeper layer subtropical moisture will move northward across
the entire state of NM. Mid level moisture from the remnants of
Hurricane Willa will be entrained into the south southwest flow aloft
ahead of the upper level trough and will contribute to the increase
in moisture across NM. Precipitable water will increase Tuesday to
around 1 inch across far southern portions of central NM to 0.6 of an
inch near the NM/CO border. GFS and NAM are forecasting record
precipitable water at KABQ at around 00Z Wednesday with the NAM
projecting 0.92 of an inch and the GFS 0.89 of an inch. Rain will
spread across eastern NM late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon
and will be widespread across central and western NM the entire day.
A series of jet maxima will round the base of the upper trough and
move over the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The
placement of the jet maxima will bring heavier rain to southeast and
south central NM Tuesday afternoon and to southeast and east central
NM Tuesday night. East to southeast low level upslope flow will also
enhance precipitation amounts east of the central mountains Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Showers will become scattered across western NM
Tuesday night, but will be numerous across central NM. Due to the
mild flow from the southwest ahead of the trough and the lack of a
flow of colder air from the east and northeast, snow levels will be
very high with this fall weather system. GFS, ECMWF and the NAM are
predicting H7 temperatures Monday night through Wednesday to be
greater than positive 2 Celsius and snow levels to be mainly above
11K feet. This forecast is yielding only 2 to 4 inches in the highest
peaks of the Sangre de Cristos and the Tusas mountains. Rain will
end from west to east across central and eastern NM Wednesday, as
the upper level trough accelerates to the east.
Thursday through Sunday appears to be a dry period with northwest
flow aloft Thursday through Saturday, transitioning to west flow
aloft Sunday. Highs Thursday and Friday will remain below normal,
while temperatures will moderate Saturday and Sunday, as warmer air
aloft moves in from the west. Highs Sunday will be above normal
areawide.
28
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...
A weak upper low circulation along the southern and central
California coast this afternoon will draw increasing amounts of
subtropical moisture northward early this week, leading to
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation
chances will be highest and most widespread Monday night through
Tuesday night with locally heavy rainfall possible. The snow level
will be quite high, with only a few inches of snow anticipated over
the highest peaks of the northern mountains. Storm total rainfall
amounts from Monday through Wednesday could range from around one
quarter to one half of an inch along and west of the Continental
Divide. Higher amounts of one half to one inch or more are possible
along the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain over the
eastern plains.
Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as northwest
flow develops over the state. Low temperatures through the end of
this week will be warmer than average but overnight humidity
recoveries generally remain good to excellent. Highs will be near to
below average through Friday, with Tuesday and Wednesday the coolest
days. The central and west could be a few degrees warmer than normal
this weekend.
Ventilation will continue to be a problem for much of northern and
central New Mexico this week. Some areas of good rates forecast for
the west and north Monday but much of the central and east will see
poor rates. Widespread poor ventilation expected Tuesday and
Wednesday with a little improvement in the west Thursday. Widespread
poor rates forecast again Friday and Saturday.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
