Office: ABQ
FXUS65 KABQ 232337 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Quiet weather conditions are expected through Thursday morning
before conditions transition to somewhat active across portions
of the northwestern CWA. The winds on Thursday will be breezy to
windy. The temperatures will cool off a couple of degrees each day
through the first half of the weekend. Active weather will move
in again across much of the area on Saturday with wide spread
showers and thunderstorms expected by then.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Currently, conditions are quiet with just a few cloud across the
northeastern and southeastern portions of the CWA with light to
breezy winds. For tonight, the quiet weather will continue with
some clouds moving along the eastern portion of the CWA. This will
be due to high pressure in the place aloft. With generally light
winds, the low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be in the
30s-50s range. For Wednesday, another quiet day will be in store
as the ridge of high pressure will gradually break down and shift
to across the Southern Plains. A somewhat of a lee cyclone will
develop and will be centered across eastern Colorado in the
afternoon. This will allow for the winds to increase across New
Mexico. As of now, the winds appear to be breezy. The with the
breaking down of the ridge, the high temperatures in afternoon
will be a couple of degrees cooler than what they will be this
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
By Thursday, a shortwave trough will swing across the Southwest
and eject into the Rockies. As it does, it will bring breezy to
windy conditions to our area. Some areas especially across the
southern and eastern CWA will be dry and with strong winds, there
will be fire weather concerns on Thursday afternoon. As of now
the winds look to be sustained at 30 to 40 mph with gust up 60 mph
mainly across the mountains and the east slopes. Also, there will
be a chance for a few showers especially across the western and
northern half of the region. Snow levels will be above 8000ft
both Thursday and Thursday night. Due to this, the precipitation
for much of the area will be in the form of rain; however, there
will be a slight chance for a few isolated snow showers overnight
Thursday into Friday across the high terrain way north of
Albuquerque.
This upper level system will move out of our area and into the
Central Plains early Friday morning. There will be a series of
disturbances moving mainly north of the area; however, a few
showers could skirt across the northern CWA on Friday. The
temperatures on Friday will be on the mild side. By Saturday,
another system will move in bringing a better chance for
precipitation. There will be sufficient instability to support a
few isolated to scattered thunderstorms especially during the
afternoon hours. The winds will be breezy with this second system
moving in. The temperatures will be on the chilly side, but still
somewhat mild due to increased cloud coverage and rain cooled air.
For the rest of the period, conditions will be generally quiet as
this second system exits the region. The temperatures will
gradually warm a couple of degrees each consecutive day through
Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
A cold front continues to slowly progress south and westward
through eastern NM this afternoon, bringing a northeasterly to
easterly wind shift with it. Gusty easterly winds of 15 to 25kts
are being observed behind the front from KRTN to KCAO and KTCC.
Meanwhile gusty southwesterly winds remain ahead of the front
through central and western NM. Most areas are skc with the
exception of sct-bkn coverage along and near the frontal boundary
generally 120 to 140. This frontal boundary will progress through
the gaps of the Sandia/Manzano Mountains into KSAF this evening.
Have bumped up the wind potential there overnight as a result.
Hi-Res model guidance supports conceptual thinking that this
shallow airmass behind the front will ooze around the northern
edge of the Sandia/Manzano Mountains and squeak through the
Tijeras Canyon. Wind directions at KABQ will likely be tricky
overnight with a northerly wind coming down from Placitas
competing against an easterly wind through Tijeras Canyon. The
saving grace here will be wind speeds are not expected to be too
strong at KABQ. A similar debacle with wind directions will be
present at KROW overnight with the frontal passage there weakening
and losing its punch. Otherwise, high moisture and upslope flow
will allow for some low clouds and fog potential overnight along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and have placed a
bkn015 at KLVS as a result.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Quiet weather is expected tonight with the recovery fair to very
good. For Wednesday, dry air will be in place. The winds will be
breezy and the temperatures will be on the high end mild side.
Wednesday night recovery will be fair to good. On Thursday, a storm
system will move in bringing mainly rain showers along the
Continental Divide and areas well to the north of the Albuquerque.
The winds will be breezy to windy and temperatures slightly cooler
than what they will be on Wednesday. There will be some fire weather
concerns on Thursday afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions
across the southern and eastern areas. Another but potent storm
system will move through on Saturday to bringing more active weather
our area. The winds will be generally light to breezy on Friday
then mainly breezy on Saturday.
The min RHs on Wednesday will be between 10 and 25%. The min RHs
on Thursday will be between 10 and 20%. The ventilation rates will
be good to excellent on Wednesday then mostly excellent on
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 45 80 43 68 / 0 0 0 5
Dulce........................... 36 76 35 67 / 0 0 0 10
Cuba............................ 41 75 40 65 / 0 0 0 20
Gallup.......................... 36 76 35 64 / 0 0 0 10
El Morro........................ 40 73 37 61 / 0 0 0 10
Grants.......................... 38 78 35 64 / 0 0 0 5
Quemado......................... 40 74 37 64 / 0 0 0 5
Magdalena....................... 48 76 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 43 72 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 38 76 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 51 79 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 36 70 35 62 / 0 0 0 20
Los Alamos...................... 48 73 47 66 / 0 0 0 10
Pecos........................... 42 74 45 67 / 5 0 0 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 46 69 45 62 / 5 0 0 5
Red River....................... 34 66 35 59 / 10 0 0 10
Angel Fire...................... 31 66 32 60 / 10 0 0 10
Taos............................ 38 74 37 67 / 0 0 0 5
Mora............................ 38 73 42 67 / 5 0 0 5
Espanola........................ 45 81 45 75 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe........................ 46 75 48 69 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 44 78 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 80 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 50 81 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 84 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 81 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 47 84 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 49 82 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 46 84 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 49 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 48 84 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 50 78 51 71 / 0 0 0 5
Rio Rancho...................... 50 82 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 51 86 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 72 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 45 76 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 41 77 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 79 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 40 74 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 42 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 42 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 51 81 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 48 74 51 68 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 38 69 43 72 / 5 0 0 5
Raton........................... 39 74 41 75 / 5 0 0 0
Springer........................ 41 74 42 76 / 5 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 41 73 45 69 / 5 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 43 69 49 81 / 5 5 0 0
Roy............................. 44 72 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 49 79 53 84 / 5 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 46 79 53 79 / 5 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 47 76 53 82 / 5 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 49 78 55 85 / 5 0 0 0
Portales........................ 49 81 55 87 / 5 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 48 81 55 85 / 5 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 53 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 49 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 49 83 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...24
