nj discuss
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 190733
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build off shore today. The next cold front is
expected to arrive in our region Saturday. High pressure will then
build in from the west on Sunday and Monday. A second cold front is
forecast to arrive on Tuesday, followed again by high pressure on
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will move offshore today so a
continuation of fair weather is expected. Skies will be sunny and
after a cold start, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s/low
60s in most areas. These readings will be a few degrees below normal
for mid-October. Winds will be light this morning and then SW around
10 mph this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will be moving across southern Canada and
therefore moisture will advect across the area tonight. Increasing
clouds and higher chc for showers will be the result. Pops are in
the high chc/low likely range for this period. Total rainfall around
a tenth of an inch will be common for our area. It will milder
tonight with lows in the mid/upper 40s N/W and low/mid 50s S/E.
Winds will be mostly SW at 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summary...Focus through the long term is on a pair of cold
fronts. The first one should sweep through the region on
Saturday, while the second one is set to arrive on Tuesday.
Details:
Saturday and Saturday night...cold front should arrive through
during the day. Interestingly, we may not get much precip with
the front (save for southern Delaware and far SE NJ), but could
see a round of precipitation behind the front due to a
combination of the vorticity maximum ahead of the mid and upper
level trough and lake effect precipitation. If we do have any
precipitation behind the front, it should be mostly rain, though
the higher terrain of the Poconos and NW NJ could see some
flurries mixed in. Not surprisingly with this scenario, the one
possible limiting factor is how quickly we will see dry air
advection behind the front.
Sunday and Monday...similar to the pattern we experienced
yesterday into today, we should see a surface high build east
through this time. Consequently, breezy northwesterly winds on
Sunday will slowly subside into Monday as the pressure gradient
decreases.
Tuesday...This period is interesting because the overall
pattern has some characteristics of a clipper system. A very
fast moving trough will dig southeast out of Manitoba into the
Great Lakes region, before lifting northeast. The cold front
associated with this low is currently forecast to propagate all
the way through the region and well to our south before stalling
and dissipating. There is always a bit of uncertainty with how
far south fronts will get with such fast moving systems.
However, given the current pattern and relatively good model
agreement, it is likely this cold front will make it through our
region. Precipitation is possible, but so far unlikely with
this system as we could be in the prime location for the dry
slot ahead of the front.
Wednesday through Friday...Surface high once again builds east
leaving us in a benign, if not colder than normal, weather
pattern. Some of the models depict a warm front arriving late
next week, but that would take a significant pattern change, so
that scenario is very uncertain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR conditions expected with light winds this morning. Winds
will begin to increase later this morning reaching 10-12 knots this
afternoon. Wind direction will be W then SW. Few Ci/Cs late.
Tonight...VFR continues with increasing clouds. Sct showers are
expected across the terminals beginning around midnight and lasting
(at least) through dawn. Winds will be mostly SW at 5 to 10
knots.
Outlook...
Saturday...mostly VFR conditions. However, there is a chance
for rain showers which could result in temporary ceiling and
visibility restrictions. Westerly winds gusting to near 20 KT
through the day, becoming northwesterly late in the day with
gusts as high as 25 KT.
Sunday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly
winds gusting up to 25 KT on Sunday. Otherwise, mostly light
(less than 10 KT) winds Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure moves offshore today while low pressure
strengthens and moves across Ontario and Quebec. The pressure
gradient strengthens and winds will freshen across the waters later
today and tonight. Scattered showers will arrive late tonight. We
will convert the Gale Watch to a Warning and leave the times
unchanged from before. The SCA for the upper Delaware Bay will be
left as is. Seas on the ocean will increase to 4 to 6 ft by dawn
Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday...SCA conditions may linger on the coastal waters for
much of the day.
Saturday night and Sunday...winds will increase once again.
There is a chance for gale force gusts primarily on the Atlantic
coastal waters late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Monday and Tuesday...Winds are likely to stay below SCA
criteria. There is a chance for elevated seas on the coastal
waters on Tuesday, but confidence is low on this.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ054-055-
060>062-103-105.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-071-101-
102-104-106.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ012-013-
015>023-027.
DE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ450>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...O'Hara
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/O'Hara
Marine...Johnson/O'Hara
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 191150
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
750 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides into the Atlantic today into tonight.
Meanwhile, strong low pressure moves into Southeast Canada. A
cold front will approach the region late tonight and move
across the region on Saturday. The cold front moves east of the
region Saturday night. Strong high pressure builds west of the
region for the second half of the weekend, building into the
local area Sunday night into Monday. This high will shift off
the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak clipper like
system tracking through New England on Tuesday. High pressure
then returns for mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, and
frost coverage. Frost will melt with rising temperatures this
morning. Coldest locations are the more interior places
currently. Frost advisory and freeze warnings expire at 9am.
Quasi-zonal mid level flow with surface flow becoming more
southwesterly today in response to a departing area of high
pressure. The high pressure will be moving more into the
Atlantic. The setup here with veering wind profiles and
vertical mixing between 950 and 900mb, will give a mild day
relative to the previous day as warmer air advects into the
region. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s,
about a few degrees below normal though.
Weather remains dry today with high pressure still close enough
to provide subsidence to keep clouds minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be sliding well into the Atlantic tonight
with strong low pressure at the surface moving into Southeast
Canada. This will be accompanied aloft by a longer wavelength
trough moving southeast into the Great Lakes. An associated cold
front will be approaching late tonight.
Persistent SW flow continues and will be gusty at times. In
addition the encroaching low pressure will bring an increase in
clouds. This will keep temperatures from decreasing too much.
Lows are forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The more
unsettled pattern developing here with the approaching cold
front will bring an increase in precipitation chances which will
be rain showers, mainly overnight.
For the weekend, the cold front moves across the region
Saturday, which will be followed by strong high pressure
building west of the region Saturday night. A few showers will
be possible Saturday and Saturday night with the very cold pool
aloft and trough moving in. The high pressure area slowly makes
its way closer to the local region through the remainder of the
weekend. Aloft, the large longwave trough moves in Saturday and
Saturday night. The trough exits Sunday into Sunday night.
Colder air arrives starting Saturday night and through the rest
of the weekend on gusty NW flow. Highs forecast on Sunday are
in the mid 40s to near 50. There are below freezing temperatures
in the forecast for Sunday night across much of the interior.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Zonal flow briefly developing Mon ahead of the next shortwave
Tue. This is where solutions diverge in the global models. The
GFS is more amplified and more progressive with building heights
for the middle of next week while the ECMWF is broader at H5
with another shortwave diving down from central Canada for Thu.
Dry and unseasonably cool weather is forecast for the remainder
of the period, although PoPs on Tue may increase in subsequent
forecast packages if there is a bit more moisture for a clipper
like system to work with in southern New England.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure settles to the south and east of the terminals
through this evening. A cold front approaches tonight into
Saturday morning.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance of showers
tonight into Saturday morning that could briefly lower
conditions to MVFR.
SW winds will increase through the day with gusts 20-25 kt
this afternoon. Gusts may weaken or briefly end this evening,
but a gusty SW flow returns overnight into Saturday morning,
especially at city terminals and the coast.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KLGA TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KEWR TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional
rather than prevailing.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional
rather than prevailing.
KISP TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers early,
then VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt.
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. W-NW winds G20-30KT.
.Sunday night-Monday...VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt possible Sunday
night.
.Tuesday...VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions develop late this morning and continue across
non-ocean waters for a majority of the time through the
weekend. For the ocean, SCA winds increase to gales tonight into
Saturday morning. Then, SCA winds are forecast for the ocean for
the rest of Saturday with another possible round of gales for
the ocean Saturday night and Sunday, closing out the weekend with
SCA winds Sunday night.
Sub-advsy conds return on all waters by Mon morning, although
marginal winds and seas are possible late Mon night and Tue.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ010>012.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069-070-
078>081.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-103-105-
107.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...
