nj discuss
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 251801
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
201 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure arrives from the Great Lakes today before
shifting to our northeast and east on Friday. A warm front
should lift north of our area later Saturday, then a cold front
gradually approaches later Monday before moving across our area
later Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak shortwave trough now pushing offshore this afternoon will
keep some scattered to broken mid-level clouds around through
the remainder of the daytime. The isolated morning showers
across the coastal plain have now moved offshore and weakened.
An unseasonably cool and dry airmass has settled into much of
the area as high pressure is building to our northeast. High
temperatures in the mid 50s are some 10-15 degrees below normal.
The cloud cover should gradually diminish into the evening, then
mostly clear skies are anticipated for the overnight period.
High pressure will continue building to the north overnight
with the gradient slacking off considerably after midnight or so.
With drier and cooler airmass in place, the mostly clear skies
and light and variable to calm winds should maximize
radiational cooling, particularly across interior portions of
New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Have kept the forecast leaning
heavily toward the coldest guidance and even adjusted down a
degree or two from there in the typical cold/sheltered
locations across the coastal plain and NW NJ.
The result is near to sub-freezing temperatures and widespread
frost development for much of our Pennsylvania and New Jersey
zones away from the immediate coast and outside of urban
Philadelphia. Therefore, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a
Freeze Warning in these areas. For urban Philadelphia and points
southwest into Delmarva, temperatures are forecast to fall well
into the mid 30s away from the immediate coast. This is
expected to result in areas of frost development given the light
to calm winds and clear skies. A Frost Advisory was issued to
highlight this threat. Can't rule out some interior portions
near the MD/DE border dropping to near freezing, but any
freezing temperatures will likely remain isolated enough to
preclude a Freeze Warning there. Inland Cape May County and
coastal Monmouth County were also included in the Frost
Advisory, as winds should become calm enough for a time
overnight to result in some frost development nearer to the
coasts there.
For Friday, the high pressure across New England will begin to
shift offshore. East to southeast winds will increase to near 10
mph across much of the area, keeping a relatively cool maritime
airmass entrenched across the region. However, we will see some
modification of the airmass compared to today, so temperatures
should warm into the low 60s across most areas away from the
coasts which will stay in the 50s. Expect mostly sunny skies and
a cool breeze much of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough is forecast to shift to our east to start
Friday, allowing high pressure to build across New England and
the Mid Atlantic. After a cold start Friday morning, surface
flow shifts south- southeast by the afternoon to allow some
warming to begin. With mostly clear skies, high temps in the
afternoon should reach low 60s inland. Onshore flow, however,
will help keep the coastal communities and adjacent inland
locations in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. Calm
winds and clear skies to start the nighttime hours will aid in
cooling, but increasing clouds overnight will help stave off
runaway radiational cooling. We will still see temperatures dip
into the mid 30s to low 40s with patchy frost possible in the
most sheltered areas.
High pressure shifts offshore Saturday with an approaching warm
front, expected to arrive around the evening timeframe. Winds
will become more southerly with return flow of our offshore high
aiding in the warm air advection we can expect as the warm
front pushes through. That said, the increased cloud coverage
will prevent us from warming up too much, with afternoon highs
expected to reach the upper 50 to low 60s, right around or just
warmer than on Friday. While a few showers cannot be ruled out
with this warm front probabilities and coverage remain rather
minimal with the only mentionable POPs north and west of I-78.
Warmer overnight with the warm front passing through and cloud
coverage preventing much radiational cooling. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure shifts to our south, allowing southwest flow to
really crank up the warm air advection across the region. Sunday
and Monday will look to bring some of the warmest temperatures
we have seen thus far this season with mid to upper 70s on
Sunday and low to mid 80s by Monday afternoon! Mostly dry across
the region during this timeframe as well, though a few isolated
showers or a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out mainly
across the Poconos where the aforementioned warm front may
linger nearby.
The stacked low shifting across the upper Midwest will slowly
move into central Canada Monday into Tuesday, dragging along a
cold front across the Ohio River Valley and eventually through
the Mid Atlantic. This is where our next best chance for
precipitation will come from and will be highly dependent on the
timing of this low and its associated cold front. At the
moment, some showers will be possible Monday night as the front
gradually approaches the region, but the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms will come Tuesday as the cold front, washing
out at this point, finally arrives. Temperatures remain warm
again Tuesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Not much cooler behind
this weak cold front on Wednesday, however, with a surface high
ridging in from the southeastern US to keep things on the mild
side in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of today...VFR with SCT to BKN clouds. Easterly winds near
5-10 kts shifting southeast by 22Z. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Southeast to east winds 5-10 kts early
diminishing by 06Z to less than 5 kts favoring a northeast
direction. Winds may become locally calm. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10
kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday...A period of near MVFR ceilings possible, most likely
Saturday night as a warm front pushes through. Otherwise,
mainly VFR.
Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet through today south of
Manasquan before gradually diminishing this evening and into the
overnight. Additionally, northeast winds have remained elevated
near 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts, although this will diminish
into the evening. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 4 AM Friday for the Atlantic zones south of Manasquan. No
additional hazards are expected through Friday with east winds
10-15 kts and seas 2-4 feet.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to
be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH's across much of the region will get quite low today across
our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones, and we've had little
rain now for a couple of weeks, allowing fine fuels to dry.
Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the
20-30% range. Northeast to east winds will be strongest this
morning, diminishing into the afternoon when the lowest RH
values are anticipated. Thus, there will be no special
statements issued for danger of fire spread today.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062-
101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ014-023.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010-
012-013-015>022-027.
DE...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/RCM
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...MJL/Staarmann
MARINE...MJL/Staarmann
FIRE WEATHER...Staarmann
FXUS61 KPHI 251846
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the Middle Atlantic region tonight
then moves offshore Friday. A warm front attached to low
pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs pressure
returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and front
arrives for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak shortwave trough now pushing offshore this afternoon will
keep some scattered to broken mid-level clouds around through
the remainder of the daytime. The isolated morning showers
across the coastal plain have now moved offshore and weakened.
An unseasonably cool and dry airmass has settled into much of
the area as high pressure is building to our northeast. High
temperatures in the mid 50s are some 10-15 degrees below normal.
The cloud cover should gradually diminish into the evening, then
mostly clear skies are anticipated for the overnight period.
High pressure will continue building to the north overnight
with the gradient slacking off considerably after midnight or so.
With drier and cooler airmass in place, the mostly clear skies
and light and variable to calm winds should maximize
radiational cooling, particularly across interior portions of
New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Have kept the forecast leaning
heavily toward the coldest guidance and even adjusted down a
degree or two from there in the typical cold/sheltered
locations across the coastal plain and NW NJ.
The result is near to sub-freezing temperatures and widespread
frost development for much of our Pennsylvania and New Jersey
zones away from the immediate coast and outside of urban
Philadelphia. Therefore, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a
Freeze Warning in these areas. For urban Philadelphia and points
southwest into Delmarva, temperatures are forecast to fall well
into the mid 30s away from the immediate coast. This is
expected to result in areas of frost development given the light
to calm winds and clear skies. A Frost Advisory was issued to
highlight this threat. Can't rule out some interior portions
near the MD/DE border dropping to near freezing, but any
freezing temperatures will likely remain isolated enough to
preclude a Freeze Warning there. Inland Cape May County and
coastal Monmouth County were also included in the Frost
Advisory, as winds should become calm enough for a time
overnight to result in some frost development nearer to the
coasts there.
For Friday, the high pressure across New England will begin to
shift offshore. East to southeast winds will increase to near 10
mph across much of the area, keeping a relatively cool maritime
airmass entrenched across the region. However, we will see some
modification of the airmass compared to today, so temperatures
should warm into the low 60s across most areas away from the
coasts which will stay in the 50s. Expect mostly sunny skies and
a cool breeze much of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A transition from early springlike temperatures Friday night to
early summer readings by Sunday. An upper ridge will build across
the area thru the period and as this happens, low pressure moves
by to the north, bringing a warm front thru on Saturday. There
will be plenty of clouds around, but chances for rain are low
Saturday (slight chance) and only chance levels for Sat night.
The most favored areas for the showers are the Southern Poconos,
Lehigh Valley and north NJ.
Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the
warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so
increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be
in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the
shore and up across the Poconos.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are not many changes for the long term with todays forecast.
Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as the
upper ridge starts out across the East late this weekend. Gradually,
this ridge weakens and allows more scattered shortwave energy to
arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into Wednesday, a cold front
will approach the area and the weaken as it moves thru. So, for the
period from Sunday night thru Monday night, a dry forecast is in place.
Tuesday/Tuesday night will feature some scattered shower/tstm activity
and after that, only widely scattered showers are expected for the
midweek and into Thu.
Well above normal temps for Sunday/Monday with highs in the upper
70s/low 80s Sunday and then some 5 to 7 degrees warmer for Monday.
There will be more clouds and showers for Tue, but highs in the 80s
are still expected. Humidity levels will increase into the new week
with dew points rising to the upper 50s/low 60s for many areas.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of today...VFR with SCT to BKN clouds. Easterly winds near
5-10 kts shifting southeast by 22Z. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Southeast to east winds 5-10 kts early
diminishing by 06Z to less than 5 kts favoring a northeast
direction. Winds may become locally calm. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10
kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night/Saturday... VFR expected.
Saturday night... VFR except in a few scattered showers mostly
KRDG/KABE/KTTN when some MVFR is possible.
Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.
Tuesday... Mostly VFR but scattered showers with lower conditions
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet through today south of
Manasquan before gradually diminishing this evening and into the
overnight. Additionally, northeast winds have remained elevated
near 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts, although this will diminish
into the evening. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 4 AM Friday for the Atlantic zones south of Manasquan. No
additional hazards are expected through Friday with east winds
10-15 kts and seas 2-4 feet.
Outlook...
Friday night through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below
SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH's across much of the region will remain quite low this afternoon
across our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones, and we've had little
rain now for a couple of weeks, allowing fine fuels to dry. Minimum
relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 20-30% range.
Northeast to east winds will diminish thru the afternoon while
the lowest RH values occur.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062-
101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ014-023.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010-
012-013-015>022-027.
DE...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...OHara/Staarmann
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 251934
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure building in through tonight will remain
over the region into Saturday. The high will give way to an
approaching warm front Saturday night. A warm front lifts north
of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by high
pressure through Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves across the region Tuesday night. Another cold front may
pass through late Wednesday or next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Northern stream trough remains over northern New England/SE CT
tonight, with Canadian high pressure building in from the
northwest through tonight.
Synoptically aided SE breeze front will continue to push inland
through early evening, before weakening.
Ideal radiational cooling conds tonight with fresh Canadian
airmass, clear skies, and light winds.
Lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for interior of NE NJ,
LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of LI where freeze warnings
have been posted. Frost conditions for all but NYC/NJ metro and
immediate surroundings tonight with lows in the mid 30s. Lows
around 40 for NYC/NJ metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northern stream shortwave trough gradually slides east on
Friday, with upper ridging building in from the west Fri Night
into Saturday. At the same time, good agreement in a vigorous
closed upper low over the northern plains on Friday shearing
into Ontario on Saturday.
At the surface, the center of Canadian high pressure builds
over the area Friday morning and sinks south of the region late
Friday into Saturday.
Unseasonably cool airmass remains over the region on Friday
with light northerly flow giving way to aggressive afternoon
sea breeze development once again. Despite plentiful sunshine
and deep mixing, 850 temps just below freezing will only have
temps topping in the upper 50s to around 60 (several degrees
below seasonable).
Another night of good radiational cooling conds Fri Night,
although with a slightly moderated and moistened airmass, temps
should be a few degrees warmer than tonight. Will likely have
temps dropping into the lower to mid 30s with frost conditions
across interior of NE NJ, LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of
LI.
Continued moderation of airmass on Saturday with strengthening
return flow around high pressure to the SE and approaching warm
front to the west. Strong sea breeze signature will likely push
maritime airmass well inland and keeping temps several degrees
below seasonable once again (upper 50s to around 60) for much
of the coastal plain. In addition, increasing high clouds
streaming in ahead of approaching warm front and over the top of
the ridge axis will likely filter sunshine in the afternoon.
Appears any light precip should stay west of the region during
the day though.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main story to start the long term will be anomalously strong ridging
making its way over the eastern US Sunday into Monday before
potentially breaking down Tuesday. A few shortwaves likely pass
across the northeast Tuesday night into Thursday. The modeling is in
good agreement through Monday on the larger scale pattern before
timing/amplitude differences arise Tuesday through the middle of
next week.
*Key Points*
*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few low chances of showers
both Saturday night/early Sunday and then again Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
*A warming trend is likely to begin on Sunday and continue into
Monday with temperatures potentially reaching 10-15 degrees above
normal Monday, especially away from the immediate coast.
*Temperatures remain above normal Tuesday through next Thursday.
A warm front lifts over the area Saturday night and should end up
north Sunday morning. Heights aloft are rising through this time
frame and lift is weak. A few showers are possible with the front,
especially across the interior Saturday night. The continuation of
the building ridge over the eastern states on Sunday will likely
result in at least partial clearing through the day. A SW flow
develops behind the passage of the warm front allowing temperatures
to warm significantly compared to recent days. There is a
significant amount of spread in high temperatures for Sunday,
especially for locations away from the immediate coast. For some of
the warmer locations the NBM deterministic actually falls below the
25th to 75th percentile of the ensemble. There should be enough
clearing along with building heights aloft and little onshore flow
influence for temperatures to end up on the higher side. Have
decided to blend in the NBM 50th percentile for now away from the
coast which yields highs middle to upper 70s. The 75th percentile of
the NBM indicates temperatures could reach or exceed 80 degrees.
Onshore flow over Long Island and southern CT likely holds
temperatures in the 60s with some locations potentially close to 70
degrees.
The ridge axis will be overhead on Monday. Strong subsidence will
likely lead to even warmer temperatures compared to Sunday. The NBM
deterministic is near the 25th percentile with much of the spread on
the warmer side of the warmer side of the ensemble. Have once again
blended in the NBM 50th percentile for the NYC metro, NE NJ, and
Lower Hudson Valley/interior SW CT. The flow is weak during the
first half of the day, but sea breezes should develop in the
afternoon. Forecast highs range from the lower to middle 80s in the
warmer spots to the upper 60s to middle 70s near the coast. High
temperatures spread only increases further on Tuesday. For example
at KEWR, the 25th percentile is 71 and 75th percentile is 87
degrees. Given that this is next Tuesday, have gone close to the NBM
deterministic for now (60s east and lower to middle 70s west). The
warmer highs in the ensemble spread could easily be realized away
from the coast if the front is slower and ridge does not break down
as quickly.
The aforementioned cold front swings through sometime late Tuesday
or Tuesday night. A few showers and potentially a thunderstorm could
accompany the frontal passage. The CSU MLP has been indicating a
very low probability for a severe thunderstorm with this front
during its last few cycles. Confidence is very low with any
convection at this time range. Confidence is also low in sensible
weather details for Wednesday and Thursday and have followed the NBM
deterministic.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong high pressure will build in through the TAF period.
VFR. SSE winds this afternoon at 10 kt or less will become light
and variable overnight. Winds will then return out of the SE
late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Only slight chance of a shower Sat
night into early Sunday morning.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in afternoon showers and
possible thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through early
next week. Coastal jet development Sat aft could have marginal
SCA wind gusts (20-25kt) for ocean waters and nearshore around
the entrance to NY Harbor.
Warmer air moving over the colder ocean early next week could
develop fog, but it is much too early for any specific details
and timing and extent.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for CTZ005>008-012.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009>011.
NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ067>070-079-
081.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ078-080.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ002.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ004-103-105-
107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
