nj discuss
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 032333
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
733 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will drop through the region tonight.
Dry high pressure will build into the region on Friday and
remain in control through the weekend, providing seasonable
temperatures and tranquil weather conditions. Warmer, more
humid, and unsettled conditions will return early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has now been cancelled. The outflow
boundary appears to have outrun all the ongoing convection,
making it unlikely we see additional severe weather this
evening. Some spotty additional flooding may still occur where a
little training occurs, but it should be isolated.
For the rest of tonight, expect remaining storms to weaken
quickly after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The front
will make its way off the coast, giving way to a mostly clear
sky. Lows should fall into the 50s and 60s.
For Independence Day, a rather pleasant and dry day is
expected. A high pressure system builds into the region and will
keep the day dry and sunny. The post frontal regime after
today's cold front will translate to temperatures mainly in the
low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity values with dew points
in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and seasonable weather conditions expected for the rest of
the holiday weekend.
High pressure overhead Friday night will result in clear skies
and calm winds, a great setup for strong radiational cooling
night. As a result, we will likely see the coolest and most
comfortable summer night in quite some time, with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s and a dry airmass in place.
The broad ridging will dominate the region over the weekend,
which will keep convection suppressed and temperatures near
normal, though temperatures will start trending upward a couple
degrees each day. Saturday will be another very pleasant day,
similar to Friday as the surface high slides overhead. High
temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 80s under sunny skies
and dewpoints mixing out nicely once again to provide us with
some low humidity. By Sunday, high pressure will be located
offshore, resulting in some return flow and thus a more sensible
increase in temperatures and humidity levels compared to the
previous days. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in
the 60s to near 70 degrees both nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Return flow will continue into the first half of next week as
upper ridging shifts out to sea and some troughing develops near
the Great Lakes. This will result in more unsettled conditions
developing again, with mostly diurnally driven chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Any severe threats remain to be seen.
The greatest chances for showers and storms currently looks to
be Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect temperatures to start trending
slightly above normal early next week as well, though they
should moderate some toward the middle of the week. Highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s, along
with increasing humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR. Residual showers and thunderstorms wane by
02Z. Northwest winds around 5 kt or less. High confidence.
Friday..VFR with a northwest wind 5-10 knots. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.
Monday and Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Isolated thunderstorms
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. West winds
around 5-10 kt this morning will become south-southwest around
10-15 kt this afternoon. For tonight, winds will veer from
southwest to north around 10-15 kt with the passing of a cold
front. Seas of 2-3 feet. Outside of an isolated thunderstorm,
fair weather is expected.
Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...No marine hazards expected.
Rip Currents...
For Independence Day, north winds around 10 mph in the morning
will become southeast around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking
wave heights of 1-2 feet with a SSE swell of around 2 feet and
a 6-8 second period. As a result, have opted to go with a LOW
risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches.
For Saturday, light northeast winds in the morning will become
south-southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave
heights generally 1-2 feet with a SE swell of around 2 feet and
a 6-8 second period. As a result, will maintain a LOW risk for
dangerous rip currents for all beaches.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJL/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL/Staarmann
LONG TERM...MJL/Staarmann
AVIATION...Guzzo/MJL/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/MJL
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 040050
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
850 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure
builds in behind the front tonight through Friday night. High
pressure remains in control through Sunday. A cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across
the area Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into
midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled.
Strong to severe thunderstorms have pushed south and east of the
area. However, some lingering showers are possible the next couple
of hours across coastal locations.
Skies will become generally clear with NW flow brining in drier
air. Lows tonight will be in the 60s for much of the area with
some spots in the Lower Hudson Valley may drop into the upper
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
*Ideal conditions are expected for Independence Day
celebrations.
The upper-level trough axis shifts east on Friday and completely
exits east by Friday night. At the same time, an upper-level
ridge builds in from the west. At the surface, high pressure
builds in from the west Friday into Friday night, passing east
offshore.
As high pressure builds in, skies should remain mostly clear
with ample surface heating. The upper level trough still
generally over the area will limit the rising of surface
temperatures, though highs will still be seasonable, generally
in the low to middle 80s. Long Island and the NYC Metro may
actually rise into the upper 80s under a light NW flow. Lows
Friday night will be in the 60s, with interior areas possibly
dropping into the upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* A predominately dry weekend with increasing warmth and humidity
through Monday.
* Unsettled conditions return Monday through Wednesday, with
shower/thunderstorm chances each day.
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.
Good model agreement on the synoptic pattern to start the period,
with upper ridging/rising heights Saturday and Sunday. Attendant
southerly flow with sfc high pressure to the southwest will continue
to advect a more warm and humid airmass into the region, peaking on
Monday (h85 temperatures 16-18C), which would yield sfc temperatures
in the low 90s, especially away from coastal areas. There is some
question as to the amount of cloud cover that will be present, which
may inhibit heating a bit and thus the high temperatures.
Those clouds appear to be in association with a stream of moisture
advecting north into the area from an upper low off the mid-atlantic
coast. Guidance is more varied on the evolution of this system, and
its possible interaction with an upper shortwave and cold front
moving in from the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. A period of
showers and thunderstorms is thus likely Tuesday afternoon, with the
frontal boundary stalling south of the area into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves across the area this evening, with high
pressure building in behind it on Independence Day.
Mainly VFR. Lingering SHRA or TSRA quickly comes to an end at
all terminals by 2Z with a return to VFR. Winds shift NW or
NNW into early evening and flow becomes light and variable at
most sites overnight. NW winds increase Friday morning,
becoming around 10 kt in the afternoon, with gusts toward 20 kt
possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may hang near 310 mag at NYC terminals early this
evening.
Gusts toward 20 kt possible Fri afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night through Saturday night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.
Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters under a weak pressure
gradient through Friday night. Tstms may pose a hazard of strong
winds, lightning, heavy rain, and locally rough seas this
afternoon and this evening.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.
Southerly flow on the ocean waters Sunday into Monday will feature
G15-20kt with seas generally around 3 ft, possibly as 4 ft late
Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through the middle
of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lingering southerly swell of 2-3 ft 6-7s will produce mainly a
low rip current risk on Friday, except for a moderate risk for
the beaches from Smith Point to Montauk Point. A low rip current
risk is expected for all beaches on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
