Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 251803
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
103 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes will send
moisture into New England through the day with light rain developing
tonight. A cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing blustery conditions by Thanksgiving through the holiday
weekend. Another cold front approaches later in the day on
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front lifts through New England tonight. This brings a
period of mainly light rain across the area through the evening
and overnight hours. A brief period of light freezing rain is
possible in some cooler pockets across the northern valleys.
Even here temps quickly warm to freezing after the precip
starts, with mainly rain continuing into the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Much of tomorrow is spent in the warm sector of a large system
centered across the Great Lakes. However, it won't feel like in
most locations as a lingering cold air dam keeps a shallow low
level cool airmass in place with low clouds, sprinkles, and
periods of drizzle. This will mostly be found through and east
of the mountains and foothills, with temps mostly lingering in
the low 40s much of the day.
The areas most likely to break into the warmer air and see a
few breaks of sunshine by the late afternoon will be across
southern New Hampshire, the Connecticut River Valley, and the
far southern Maine coast. Here, temps climb into the 50s through
the day, with some highs near 60 degrees along the Mass border.
During the overnight hours, a weak triple point low brings one
more round of organized showers through tomorrow night. The
steadiest rain is likely to be found across the north. This
mostly moves through by daybreak on Thanksgiving, with only some
lingering rain and snow showers across the higher terrain. The
cold front pushes offshore by daybreak as well, with an
increasing westerly breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precipitation will be largely over with to start out Thanksgiving
morning as low pressure begins to lift up into the Canadian
Maritimes. There could be a few snow showers in the mountains, but
looks like the low-level wind direction will be more southwesterly
and doesn't really favor the upslope precip. Otherwise, it'll be
breezy with gusts of 25 to 35 mph based on forecast soundings and
highs in the 40s south of the mountains. In general, expect to it be
partly cloudy, but with the upper-low still lurking to the north and
west, I think there will be periods of mostly cloudy skies.
Surface low pressure remains over the Maritimes Friday and Saturday
resulting in a blustery couple of days with a tight pressure
gradient over New England. Temperatures will be on a downward trend
with CAA with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s south of the mountains
Friday and then largely in the 30s by Saturday, but the winds will
make it feel even chillier. Based on forecast soundings, looking at
westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but there's potential for some
to exceed 40 mph on Friday per the top of the mixed layer on NAM
forecast soundings. Periods of snow showers are likely in the
mountains Friday into Saturday as the wind direction favors upslope
precip, and Froude numbers indicate unblocked flow. So we may need
to add a chance of snow showers south of the mountains in future
updates, especially on Friday.
High pressure returns late Saturday into the first part of Sunday,
but it quickly shifts east as a cold front approaches the region and
brings the next shot as widespread precipitation. Models are
favoring a more northward track of the low, which could bring mostly
rain south of the mountains Sunday into Sunday night, but there
could be rain/snow mix if precip begins early enough before the
column warms. Will also have to watch for gusty winds along the
coast as some deterministic solutions are showing a pretty stout low-
level jet.
There's pretty good agreement in precip ending either late Sunday
night or early Monday once the cold front crosses. However, the
pattern remains active with troughing continuing over the Northeast,
and it's possible another system is already approaching around next
Tuesday. So the NBM PoPs of 40-50% seem very reasonable given the
support from ensemble guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR quickly drops to IFR and LIFR late this
evening too around midnight as rain and low ceilings move in.
HIE likely only drops to MVFR ceilings tonight and tomorrow.
Elsewhere. LIFR-IFR linger through at least midday Wednesday,
then some MVFR breaks are possible at LEB, MHT, CON, PSM, and
PWM in the late afternoon. IFR likely returns tomorrow night
with another round of showers, and then ceilings gradually
improve back to MVFR toward daybreak on Thursday.
Long Term...Mostly VFR Thurs-Saturday night except for periods
of MVFR ceilings and snow showers will be possible at HIE. It
will also be breezy during the daylight hours with 25-30 kt at
times, possibly over 35 kt at times. This will be mainly 13Z-21Z
each day with the breezier day expected to be Friday. Chances
for precipitation and flight restrictions increase as a cold
front approaches the region on Sunday. At this time,
precipitation type favors mostly rain (except snow at HIE), but
there could be a rain/snow mix as far south as AUG/LEB.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Marginal SCA conditions continue into late
tomorrow morning as a warm front crosses through tonight. A cold
front then crosses the waters late tomorrow night and Thursday
morning, with a building period of SCA conditions late tomorrow
night in SW-W winds ahead of any gale conditions on Thursday.
Long Term...West to southwesterly gales are looking more likely
from Thursday all the way through Friday night as a tight
pressure gradient sets up with low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes. High pressure brings a brief period of improvement
Saturday night and the first part of Sunday before a southerly
flow increases ahead of a cold front that looks to cross Sunday
night or early Monday. There may be a period of gales with this
system as well.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
154.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning
for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Combs
