Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 100452
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1152 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure southwest of New England will deepen as it tracks
northeastward today dragging a cold front across the area tonight.
A much colder air mass arrives tonight into Tuesday with gusty
west winds and chances for snow showers. A persistent NW flow
regime will bring chances for snow showers in the mountains most
days while southern areas remain mostly dry into the end of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of forcing associated with WAA aloft is pushing through
northern zones early this morning with steady precipitation
transitioning to showers. Within this lull in precipitation some
fog will become likely into day break. Temperatures will
continue to warm through the pre dawn hours so mainly rain is
expected.
An approaching short wave and the left exit region of an upper
jet will help deepen an area of low pressure overhead. This low
will track into Quebec this evening dragging a cold front across
the area bringing increasing chances for rain later this
morning through this evening. A corridor of MU CAPE of a few
hundred J/kg will nose into coastal Maine bringing the chance
for a few rumbles of thunder. Highs today will range from the
upper 40s north to upper 50s across southern NH and coastal
Maine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will sweep across the area tonight with chances
for precipitation diminishing outside of some mountain rain and
snow showers. Gusty NW winds will usher in a much colder airmass
with temperatures dropping into the 20s to low 30s north to
south.
A TPV dropping south over the Great Lakes early this morning will
swing across New England during the day Tuesday. This feature will
bring a cold pool of H5 temperatures around -35C overhead
Tuesday afternoon and may aid in some instability for snow
showers. A few CAM solutions bring snow squall parameters >1
across portions of the Northeast into the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon while the lack of a frontal forcing feature suggest
organized snow squalls are unlikely. Nevertheless CAMs do
suggest there will be scattered snow showers Tuesday afternoon
that will have potential to bring a quick coating of snow. The
best chances for snow showers will be in the mountains but snow
showers downstream cannot be ruled out. Highs on Tuesday will
remain below freezing in the mountains with upper 30s to low 40s
south of the mountains. Gusty NW to W winds will make it feel
10 to 20 degrees cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
01Z NBM Update...No significant changes in the NBM with
persistent northwest flow aloft favoring snow showers in the
mountains while areas to the south remain mostly dry.
Pattern Overview: The 500mb weather pattern is going to be dominated
by troughing through the long term period. This will support
unsettled conditions, but lack of large scale synoptic forcing at
the surface looks to preclude any significant precipitation events.
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected at this time
Wednesday and Thursday: A brief period of dry weather looks
likely Wednesday morning as we get some shortwave ridging in
between troughs. The next trough rotates in midday, but surface
low pressure remains north of the area so any precipitation
looks to stay confined to the mountains. Clouds should be
abundant across the area regardless as southwesterly flow brings
in some mid-level moisture. This will limit high temperatures
to the low to mid-40s south of the mountains, and to the mid- to
upper 30s to the north. As the axis of this broad trough moves
overhead Wednesday night, clouds begin to clear out south of the
mountains allowing for a uniform low temperatures across the
area in the mid to upper 20s (maybe the immediate coastal plain
holds in the low 30s). The trough makes its exit Thursday, with
models on the fence about how much forcing aloft occurs as it
does. The Euro is favoring more forcing overhead and more light
shower activity, while the Canadian and GFS keep the better
forcing to the south favoring just upslope showers in the
mountains. High and low temperatures similar to Wednesday can be
expected.
Friday-Sunday: Models are in good agreement that a blocking
ridge sets up in the central Atlantic late in the week. This
brings vertically stacked low pressure in the vicinity of the
Gulf of St. Lawrence to a standstill, but disturbances continue
to rotate around it and through our area. There is
unsurprisingly much uncertainty at this point between models on
what these are going to look like, but it is safe to say that
unsettled weather looks to continue through the weekend. There
is even some suggestion that the block breaks down early next
week allowing for more organized systems to make it into the
area once again.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...There will be a lull in steady rain into this
morning while low cigs and drizzle will continue IFR to LIFR
conditions. Another round of rain moves through during the day
today with IFR likely prevailing at all sites into this evening.
A cold front crosses tonight bringing drier air and condition
improving to VFR, with the exception of upslope cloud -SHSN at
KHIE. Upslope clouds and snow showers likely impact KHIE through
Tuesday and some snow showers may be possible downstream of the
mountains. Otherwise mainly VFR prevails Tuesday with WNW
gusting 25-30 kts.
Long Term...Outside of brief rain/snow showers VFR should be
the prevailing condition through Friday south of the mountains.
LEB and HIE have the higher chances of longer duration MVFR/IFR
as snow showers look to remain prevalent in the mountains.
Wednesday looks like the best chance for widespread MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...East southeast will peak early this morning and
then subside around sunrise while sea remain elevated. Have
extended the SCA for elevated seas into this afternoon. A cold
front crossing tonight will bring a wind shift out of the west
into Tuesday. These west winds will gust to Gale force Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.
Long Term...Winds drop to below Gale force Wednesday morning
while SCA conditions continue through the day Thursday. Sub-SCA
conditions look likely Friday through the weekend as a ridge
sets up in the Atlantic.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Baron/Schroeter
