Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 121746
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
146 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will bring
increased rain chances, gusty winds, and high surf through early
week. The low will eventually be pushed east by a cold front
midweek. Cooler temperatures arrive late week, particularly for
the mountains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Other than some light showers or drizzle affecting portions of
our southernmost zones, the main rain shield to our south
continues to be slower than progged. Have backed off on PoPs for
tonight for most zones except the far south. Otherwise, gusty
easterly winds will continue, gusting around 30 kt at times at
the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Building waves will create high surf conditions through
Monday. Rip current risk remains high, with the added impact
of localized beach erosion. View wave action from a distance,
not on rock outcrops or land exposed to crashing waves.
* Wind gusts increase into Monday morning with ENE gusts 25-35
mph possible mainly along the coast.
Model guidance has continued to back off on rainfall amounts
for Monday as the northward progression of the low and
association precipitation runs into strong high pressure to our
north. Have reduced PoPs for most locations except for southern
NH. There will eventually be a sharp cut off to the
precipitation shield and that line continues to look like it
will be more south than forecast. Therefore, it is possible that
PoPs will need to be further reduced in northern and central
zones. Otherwise, easterly winds will will remain gusty.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers should gradually taper off through the day on Tuesday
as high pressure works in from the north. High temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
High pressure remains in the vicinity through the end of the
week with conditions on the drier side expected. A mid-level trough
moves southward on Thursday bringing cooler weather and some
upslope rain and snow showers with a chance of an isolated
shower elsewhere. Thursday will be the coldest day of this week,
with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Dry weather
continues into Friday and Saturday, with a gradual warming trend
into the weekend. A wetter, more unsettled pattern looks
possible for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR ceilings continue for southern NH terminals
this evening. SHRA slowly pushes north this evening into the
overnight, with RA more steady into Monday across the far south.
We have reduced chances for precipitation elsewhere, and cigs
may actually remain VFR through Monday north of roughly a KLEB-
KPWM line.
Long Term...Lowered restrictions are possible Tuesday morning,
though conditions improve through the rest of the day. VFR is
likely to prevail through the remainder of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Wave heights build tonight as easterly flow
strengthens. A few gusts to Gale force will be possible off the
coast of the coasts of Vinalhaven/Isle au Haut, but of less
frequency than further south. Seas off of NH and southern ME
will reach hazardous heights of 10 to 15 feet Monday.
Long Term...SCA-criteria northeasterlies and 6-10ft seas
expected Tuesday morning, with slackening winds expected. Seas
lower to 4-7ft by the end of the day and will continue through
most of the day on Wednesday. Winds shift to northwesterlies on
Wednesday and strengthen to SCA levels by Thursday morning and
may stay at SCA levels through the rest of the week. 4-6ft seas
continue through the remainder of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Steady easterly winds will build water along the coast through
early week, coinciding with high surf and astronomical tides
around 10 to 10.5 ft (at CASM1). The result may splashover
surrounding the high tide time.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
MEZ023>027.
High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
MEZ023>027.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ152-
154.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Palmer
