ne discuss
Office: LBF
FXUS63 KLBF 270849
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are possible late today and the primary
hazards are wind damage and large hail.
- Isolated severe storms are also possible late Sunday and the
primary hazards are wind damage and large hail. Winds aloft
will increase and become strong. There is some concern
significant wind or hail damage may develop.
- Tuesday will be the warmest of the next 7 days with predicted highs
in the upper 90s to low 100s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
A stalled frontal boundary across the Nebraska panhandle will be the
focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development late this
afternoon and tonight. Winds aloft are very weak, just 10-30kts at
h500-300mb but strong daytime heating and a weak UA disturbance
moving through nrn UT/NV will move through for support. Moisture is
beginning to pool ahead and behind the front and PWAT could reach
1.25 inches by this evening. The short term model blend plus the
NAM, GEMreg, HRRR and RAP models was the basis for a 20 to 40 POP.
SPC suggested a marginal severe wind and hail threat today. Given
the weak winds aloft, wind would seem to be the primary concern
followed by severe hail.
The situation Sunday afternoon and evening is much different from
Saturday. The models are in good agreement energizing the
subtropical jet to 40-50kts at 300mb; around 30kts at h500mb.
Moisture will continue to pool with PWAT increasing to 1.50 inches
east of highway 83 and 1.25 inches to the west. Strong warm air
advection across KS/ern Colo will be directed toward wrn Nebraska
and the models suggest sufficient moisture pooling will cause a
weakness in the 700mb cap late in the afternoon around 21z or so.
The 00z HRRR indicated a couple of storms with 70 mph gusts across
the Sandhills. The unidirectional westerlies aloft would seem to
support bow segments as the severe storm mode but it is worth noting
the rich moisture could easily support a hail threat. POPs are 20-30
percent for this event and use the short term model blend plus the
NAM and GEMreg models.
SPC suggested a marginal severe wind and hail threat Sunday and this
is based on the expected isolated storm coverage but given the winds
aloft and moisture availability, one has to be concerned with the
significant severe weather potential.
The short term model blend plus bias correct plus the NBM 50th
percentile suggest highs in the low to mid 90s today, and mid to
upper 90s Sunday. The target mixing height is 700mb both days and
temperatures aloft at h700mb will warm from around 13C today to 14-
15C Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
An upper level low across the srn Plains this morning will slowly
move northeast toward the Great Lakes this weekend. The upper
low has caused a split in the subtropical upper level ridge with
centers resting across the deep South and swrn U.S. Once the
low moves away, the two upper level ridges will merge into a
single large high pressure system across Texas. The ridge will
then migrate west and build into the central Rockies by Friday.
The subtropical jet across Nebraska will peak at 60-70kts Monday
morning followed by a gradual weakening becoming light at 20kts late
Thursday and Friday. The potential for anything more than isolated
storms is low and the reason for this is the lack of moisture. Low
heights across the wrn U.S. are expected to limit subtropical
moisture return into Nebraska.
The upper level trof will send a surge of hot desert air into
Nebraska Tuesday. Highs in the 90s and low 100s are in place
supported by h700mb temperatures around 16C and precipitable water
of an inch or less. Otherwise, highs in the 90s are likely Monday
and Wednesday through Friday as slightly cooler air moves in aloft.
Temperatures at h700mb will remain 13-15C.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
A couple aviation weather hazards exist for western and north
central Nebraska terminals thorugh the forecast period,
primarily wind and thunderstorms. Southerly near surface winds
will restrengthen by mid-morning with gusts 20+ kts expected
through at least early evening. Thunderstorms will then develop
in the west late afternoon and overspread the area through the
evening, which may affect the LBF-VTN terminals around
28/00-28/03z timeframe.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
Office: OAX
FXUS63 KOAX 270720
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
220 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be a lower chance (25 to 40 percent) of
thunderstorms Sunday evening. A few of these storms may be on
the stronger side with gusty winds the primary hazard.
- Another system will bring chances for storms (20 to 35
percent) Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.
- Temperatures are expected to warm into the middle of next
week, with Wednesday looking to be the hottest day of the
forecast. The highest heat indices are expected across
southeast Nebraska.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
We have clear skies again tonight with smoke aloft leading to
some light haze across the sky. Today we'll see a system move up
from the Ark-La-Tex region and get picked up by the upper-level
flow across Missouri. This could lead to some afternoon
convective cloud development, especially over southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. Some CAMs even show a few isolated showers
or even a storm or two clipping our far southeastern counties.
There will be a strong Cap in place, but if we can heat up
enough we may be able to overcome the inversion. For this
reason, manually increased PoPs to just below mentionable (to
around 10 to 14% chance) in far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa. Any showers or storms should diminish by sunset.
Temperatures this afternoon may stay a degree or two cooler than
yesterday, but it will still be hot and humid.
Sunday we see a second wave move through which will push the
monsoonal moisture plume along the lee side of the Rockies
currently located over the Panhandle of Nebraska east to
collide with and enhance the low-level jet advecting moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. We'll start to see a few isolated to
scattered showers and storms nudge into northeast Nebraska late
Saturday night into Sunday, but the better chance for scattered
showers and storms across our area (20-40%) won't be until
Sunday evening through the overnight hours when the upper-level
shortwave arrives and we see the enhancement of the low-level
jet.
SPC has our area under a marginal, or level 1 out of 5, risk for
severe weather on Sunday evening. This appears to be an artifact
of uncertainty in the amount of elevated instability we are
able to utilize before warming aloft causes it to decline
overnight. The better chance for showers and storms will
probably be earlier in the evening, with waning potential toward
midnight and after.
Monday - Friday:
As we go into next week, we see a broad, fairly flat ridge set
up over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS, putting us under fairly
zonal flow becoming gradually more amplified toward midweek.
This is reflected in the warming trend with temperatures
approaching 100 by Wednesday. It's going to be HOT AND HUMID,
with heat indices around 100 to 110 across much of southeast
Nebraska through the first half of the week.
This pattern will also support overnight MCS development, which
we already see in the synoptic models with potential for showers
and storms Tuesday and Wednesday nights. If we can get these
storms to keep clouds around well into the following days, we
might not achieve the blistering temperatures forecast, but
that's hard to say this far out.
Toward the latter half of next week we see the amplification of
the ridge out over the West Coast which will strengthen
northwesterly flow over the Northern Plains. This will help
bring some relief from the heat with highs dropping back down
into the low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s on Friday. Humidity
should be a bit lower as well as this air mass being advected in
will be drier.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Hazy skies are expected to persist with gradual improvement
through the forecast period. Visibilities currently remain VFR,
though brief periods of MVFR with haze will be possible.
Southerly winds will persist with a gradual shift to
southeasterly late Saturday afternoon. Winds will increase to
speeds greater than 12 kts in the 15-18Z timeframe with gusts up
to 22 kts possible Saturday afternoon/evening.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood
Office: GID
FXUS63 KGID 270851
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect a gradual warming trend through Tuesday, with highs
approaching the mid-90s to around 105 degrees by Wednesday
afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the
hottest days during this stretch of heat.
- Thunderstorms will be possible this evening and again Sunday
afternoon and evening. A few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible.
- A slight cool down in temperatures is expected Thursday
through the end of the forecast period, with highs falling
back into the 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
The forecast begins with an upper ridge over the Great Lakes and a
closed upper low over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Temperatures will
range from the low 90s for areas along and north of a line from
Cozad to Holdrege to Hebron. Areas south of this line can expect
temperatures in the low to mid-90s. Some lingering haze may still be
possible today, as the HRRR near surface and vertically integrated
smoke models are showing some. The good news is that there should be
less haze than the past several days.
A surface trough on the lee side of the Rockies will be the main
driving force of any convection in the area today. SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values of around 1500 J/kg in the western part of the state and the
extreme western portion of the Hastings CWA is possible. A few
isolated thunderstorms may develop initially in western Nebraska,
northwestern Kansas, and Colorado. These storms are expected to move
into the Hastings CWA after sunset. The extreme western portion of
Dawson County is outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe weather by
the Storm Prediction Center. This is where instability is best for
our area. As storms move east across the area tonight, the potential
for severe weather is expected to decrease. Thunderstorms should be
over for most areas by sunrise Sunday morning.
Zonal flow sets up over the area Sunday, with the main upper ridge
continuing to move northeast, to the north of New England. A weak
upper ridge sets up over the Front Range, with an upper trough over
Big Sky Country (Montana) and the West River portion of South
Dakota. Temperatures have trended down slightly, with highs now
expected to be in the low to mid-90s for areas along and north of a
line from Cozad to Holdrege to Hebron Nebraska. Areas south of this
line are expected to have temperatures reach the upper 90s to around
100 degrees. heat index values approaching 99-103 degrees will be
possible in those areas. No heat related products are in effect at
this time, but will need to continue to monitor the souther portions
of the area.
There is a chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening, a few of which could become strong to marginally severe.
The main concerns with any storms that develop would be hail, wind,
and moderate rainfall.
The upper ridge moves further over the Central High Plains and Great
Plains Monday through Wednesday. Expect a gradual warming trend
Monday and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be
the hottest days of the forecast period with highs ranging from the
mid-90s to around 105 each day. Widespread heat index values of 100+
are expected both days, with many areas approaching or exceeding
advisory criteria (105 degrees). It is still a little early to issue
anything, so we will continue to monitor the forecast over the
coming days. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) will
be possible Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.
A little more uncertainty comes into the forecast Thursday onward.
Models are showing the possibility of an upper trough moving through
the area, but with timing and location variable depending on the
model. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected with most
areas returning to the 90s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the
forecast period. Southerly winds persist tonight, increasing
to around 115-20kts this morning, with gusts as high as 25kts.
Winds are expected to decrease this evening. Mainly sunny skies
are expected across the area. There is the potential for some
lingering haze in the area with little to no impact to
visibility.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser
