ne discuss
Office: LBF
FXUS63 KLBF 262310
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms move into the area
late Saturday afternoon. Some strong storms possible,
especially near and south of Highway 2 Saturday evening.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms becomes fairly
widespread Saturday night into Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall
is likely.
- Fairly active weather continues next week with recurring
chances for rain and thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday through
Thursday night.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
19Z surface analysis showed a surface low centered near Grand
Island with a cold front extending southwest through Lexington
and McCook. An upper level low was centered from central into
north central Nebraska. Scattered showers continued near and
west of Highway 83, with isolated storms near and east of a
Broken Bow through Butte line.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Tonight...The upper low will lift from eastern South Dakota into
Minnesota. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this
evening north of Highway 2, ending entirely by midnight.
Cooler air behind the cold front, with lows falling into the
lower 40s west to the mid 40s northeast.
Saturday...Another closed low near the Four Corners 12Z, will
emerge onto eastern Colorado by late afternoon. Surface low
pressure will deepen from southwest into west central Kansas
during the afternoon with a defined warm front extending from
Goodland Kansas through Hastings Nebraska. Northeast winds will
strengthen across western and north central Nebraska. Storms
will initiate along the warm front and lift northward into
areas south of I80 late afternoon with a marginal risk for
severe storms. Highs will only reach near 50 in the northwest
Sandhills to near 70 in Frontier County, in closer proximity to
the warm front.
Saturday night...Deep forcing increases in the evening, with
showers and thunderstorms becoming numerous to widespread, with
potential for another half inch to inch of rainfall. The
heaviest rainfall is expected from North Platte to Mullen back
west through Ogallala and Imperial. Locally higher amounts are
possible. The risk for Flash Flooding appears low, with a
marginal risk for areas along and south of Highway 2 overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be widespread Sunday
morning, becoming scattered in the afternoon. Precipitation
looks to linger across the northeast Sunday evening. Cloudy
skies and cooler air will hold temperatures to well below
normal from 45 to the low 50s most locations.
Monday through Friday...Mainly dry conditions Monday and
Tuesday, with a Northern Stream trough crossing the region
Wednesday through Friday. Moderating temperatures Monday and
Tuesday to the upper 60s to low 70s. A cool front Wednesday with
mid 60s for Thursday. PoPs in the extended are generally
limited to Slight Chance or Chance (35% or less) Wednesday
through Thursday night, with model differences leading to the
lower POPs. Could see 30s for lows Thursday night as surface
high pressure builds in.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
The shower activity across the Sandhills and nrn Nebraska is
expected to dissipate by 03z this evening. Thereafter, MVFR/IFR
ceilings are likely along and north of highway 2 and these
ceilings could persist throughout the day Saturday in that
area.
VFR is expected south of highway 2 until 15z Saturday. Thereafter,
MVFR ceilings are expected from 15z Saturday morning thorugh 00z
Saturday evening.
Organized thunderstorm development Saturday is not anticipated
until 23z Saturday and the area of concern for this flight
concern is south of Interstate 80.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...CDC
Office: OAX
FXUS63 KOAX 261806
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
106 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms Today and Saturday with strong tornadoes,
large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding possible.
Greater flooding threat on Saturday night.
- Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday as well, to a lesser
degree, but brief tornadoes possible as well.
- Storms wrap up by Monday, with warmer temperatures arriving
next week. Another round of showers and storms possible
Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Skies are clearing from the southeast this afternoon as storms
are starting to develop near the center of the surface low
across central Nebraska. There's already one supercell that has
developed west of Grand Island. We're watching towering Cu start
to develop across north-central Kansas and south-central
Nebraska out near Hebron which will be our line of strong to
severe thunderstorms for this afternoon. We have a primed
environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1
km helicity that increases to 200+ across southeast Nebraska.
Seems like this could be a day where any individual storm will
be capable of producing a strong tornado. Storms will be moving
into the Lincoln area around 3 PM, the Omaha Metro around 4 - 5
PM, making it to the Missouri River around 5 PM, and out of our
area by around 7 to 8 PM. Some of the CAMS show the potential
for an additional storm or two trailing behind the main line,
but the severe window for each area will center mostly around
the main line of storms.
Once storms clear the area this evening, we'll see clearing
skies across most of our area. We will have low clouds spread
south out of South Dakota overnight tonight into Norfolk, but
probably won't make it as far south as Omaha.
Saturday morning we'll be between systems, dry with light
winds. We'll see a warm front lift north during the afternoon
with the approach of our next low pressure system. We'll see
initial storm development along and ahead of the warm front
around 6-7 PM with several rounds of storms developing and
training along the warm front which stalls somewhere along I-80.
With training storms, we add the significant potential for flash
flooding in addition to large hail, strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds Saturday evening, with the significant severe
threat possibly not ending until after midnight.
We'll see a third chance for severe storms on Sunday as the
center of the surface low passes over our area Sunday afternoon.
This will be a lower threat, but should not be overlooked. This
will be similar to what we saw about ten days ago where we had a
couple brief tornadoes that popped up from low-topped supercells
that developed in a similar environment as the surface low again
passed right over our area. We could also see hail up to
quarter-size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. All storms should
finally exit our area after midnight Monday.
For the extended forecast, we just don't have time right now to
do an in-depth analysis beyond day three. See previous
discussion below:
We finally receive a break from the active weather pattern on
Monday and into early next week, with just a few minor showers
and storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will
generally top out in the 70s next week, with a few locations
reaching the low 80s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
IFR cigs this morning are starting to clear from the southwest
this morning as the low pressure center starts its approach.
Expect a period of improvement to VFR conditions with BKN or SCT
cigs around 3500-4500 ft about an hour or two before
thunderstorms move through the terminals this afternoon. Models
suggest there could be one or two lines of thunderstorms that
roll through. Went ahead and put one line in the TAFs, but will
adjust to factor in for a second line of storms if it develops
just behind the first. Storms should be east of the terminals by
00Z this evening, with clearing skies and winds turning
westerly or southwesterly. Low clouds will spread south out of
South Dakota into KOFK late in the TAF period around 04-06Z
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions through the end of the TAF
period. As of right now it does not appear they will get far
enough south to impact KOMA or KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy/KG
AVIATION...McCoy
Office: GID
FXUS63 KGID 262313
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing lingering shower/storm activity will continue into the
early-mid evening hours, but is expected to end for most areas
by midnight, with the rest of the overnight hours dry.
- The break from thunderstorm chances is short-lived, with the
next round expected to develop mid-afternoon Saturday along an
northward pushing warm front. Large hail/damaging winds are
the main threat, but cannot rule out the threat for tornadoes.
- The next main upper low moves through the area on Sunday,
keeping precipitation chances in the forecast. While the SPC
Day 3 risk areas are currently focused east of the forecast
area, any slowdown of the system and accompanying surface
boundaries would bring that risk back west into our area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Currently through tonight...
Been a very busy day today, mainly from late morning on through
mid-afternoon, as a strong low pressure system sliding east
through the Central Plains drove the development of
thunderstorms along a northward arcing warm front. The strongest
storms extended from northern Buffalo County northeastward into
Greeley County, and a few tornadoes did touch down. Damage
survey is ongoing and will continue into tomorrow. Late this
afternoon, the main focusing surface features have shifted just
to the east of the forecast area, but scattered thunderstorms
continue as the upper low continues to cross the region. Can't
rule out some of these storms being on the strong side through
this evening, but better instability/shear parameters are also
focused east, so additional severe weather is not anticipated.
Activity is expected to wane in coverage/intensity as we get
further into the evening hours, with models in pretty good
agreement drying things out after midnight. At the surface,
expecting winds to also taper off, as the pattern influence
transitions from the departing low to the east and another
gradually deepening to our southwest. Overnight lows tonight are
expected to drop into the 40s.
Saturday and Sunday...
Unfortunately, the break from thunderstorm chances coming in
tonight is a short-lived one, lasting only into the morning
and early morning hours on Saturday. At 12Z Saturday, models
show the forecast area sitting under upper level shortwave
ridging, set up between the system driving today's weather
(which will have moved into the western Great Lakes/MN area) and
the next low pressure system, which is expected to be in the
Four Corners region. Also start of the day between areas of
surface low pressure, keeping winds on the lighter side. Through
the day, the main upper low sill continue pushing east, ending
up over eastern CO by early evening. In response to this next
approaching upper low, surface low pressure is expected to
deepen over southeastern CO, resulting in a strengthening of the
eastward extending warm front...which by midday models show
being anywhere from across our southern forecast area counties
to closer to I-70. Through the afternoon hours, this warm front
is expected to lift north...with some uncertainty with just how
far north it gets by mid-late afternoon, but could be roughly
along the NE/KS state line. Today's system isn't bringing a
strong cold front through the area to 'clean things out'
(instability/dewpoints) for Saturday...current dewpoints are
still mid-50s for much of the area, so areas especially
along/south of that warm front will have sufficient instability
to work with, and deeper layer shear remains strong...so severe
weather will again be a concern. The southeastern 1/3rd of the
forecast area is included in the SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk, with
the Slight Risk northward roughly to a Arapahoe-Osceola line.
All modes of severe weather will be a concern, mainly from mid-
afternoon through the evening hours.
Shower/thunderstorm chances continue on into Sunday, as the main
upper level low looks to push northeast...models showing the
general path going through eastern CO/western KS/western NE.
The current SPC Day 3 risk areas are just off to the east of the
forecast area...but similar to today's system, we'll be at the
mercy of the timing of the upper low and accompanying surface
features. Any slow down and strong/severe storm concern will
increase.
Monday and beyond...
Honestly, spent little time on this time frame. Dry conditions
are expected to settle in late Sunday night into Monday, as we
sit in the wake of this weekend system. Further into the work
week, models showing an overall zonal pattern with periodic
shortwave disturbances, so precipitation chances return Tuesday-
Thursday. Forecast highs through the new work week are in the
60s-70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Isolated -SHRAs or -TSRAs may impact either terminal over the
next couple of hours as the departing area of low pressure
tracts further east. Expect only some scattered clouds by late
evening, with winds diminishing to near 12KTS out of the west by
27/04Z. Wind will then continue to veer and become northerly by
daybreak on Saturday, with increasing clouds by mid-afternoon as
a warm front lift north from the NE/KS state line bringing a
chance for thunderstorms back to both terminals later in the
day.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi
