Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

ne discuss


Office: LBF

FXUS63 KLBF 192324
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
524 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Active weather continues tonight across north central Nebraska. Snow
will slowly taper off on Tuesday morning after dropping a fresh coat
of snow across the majority of central and northern Nebraska.

Snow has been falling across portions of northern Nebraska all day
and will continue through tonight. Current model runs show a couple
bands of heavier snow developing tonight. The first band will set up
across portions of the western Sandhills and Pine Ridge region.
Snowfall totals through tonight could total 5 to 7 inches in this
location with locally higher amounts near 8 inches around the
Merriman area. The second band is expected to set up along a line
from Sutherland to Thedford to Springview. Here, snowfall
accumulations are expected to be in the 2 to 4 inch range with
amounts near 5 to 6 inches across northern Brown and Keya Paha
counties. Elsewhere, snow will be light with accumulations in the 1
to 3 inch range with generally lesser amounts across the south.

Area roadways are expected to become snow covered and slippery
tonight, so caution should be used if travel is necessary. In
addition, blowing snow is possible as northerly winds gust to near
20 mph overnight.

In addition to overnight snow, low temperatures tonight will
plummet. Expect lows in the positive single digits with some
locations across northwest Nebraska dropping into the negative
single digits. These cold surface temperatures combined with
moderate winds will produce some dangerous wind chills overnight.
Wind chills will easily be in the negative 15 to negative 20 degree
range across the entire forecast area. The Pine Ridge region could
see wind chills approach 25 below zero.

Snow will slowly slide eastward on Tuesday morning. A few lingering
snow showers will be possible across the northeast portions of the
forecast area (O'Neill area) through noon Tuesday. All snow is
expected to be east of the region by noon. Skies will start to clear
out across the south by afternoon, however, overcast skies will
continue across the north. Afternoon temperatures will remain chilly
with forecasted highs ranging from the single digits across Pine
Ridge to the upper teens south of I-80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

1030 mb arctic high pressure should be located near or over ncntl
Neb Wednesday morning. The high will move from snow-covered MT,
through SD and into ern SD/ncntl Neb. A blend of the models, the
previous forecast and bias corrected guidance suggested sub-zero
lows throughout wrn and ncntl Neb. These numbers were nudged up a
few degrees but still show lows mostly below zero and -17F across
Sheridan county Wednesday morning. This area may need a wind chill
warning. A wind chill advisory may be needed farther east across
ncntl Neb Wednesday morning. These products will be issued once the
ongoing winter weather event exits the region.

The models continue to advertise a broad longwave trof across the
Wrn U.S. this week. As the arctic high pressure system underway
moves east, the models show return moisture ahead of a second weaker
arctic high. The trof and return moisture should be sufficient for a
period snow Thursday. Something similar develops Saturday as
additional energy lifts out through the Central Plains. Temperatures
aloft are cold enough for snow in both situations but not favorable
for snow growth.

Arctic air Wednesday through Friday will keep high temperatures near
or below freezing. A blend of bias corrected guidance suggested
lower temperatures by about 1 to 3 degrees. A modest warming trend
is expected Saturday through Monday. The longwave trof will flatten
and this should draw warmer air off the Rockies into Neb. The model
consensus shows a gradual rise in temperatures at h850mb from -20C
Tuesday to around 0C Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow will impact both terminals overnight. Light snow currently
at the KLBF and KVTN terminals and will continue to fall through
tonight. Heavier snow will develop during the mid to late evening
with visibilities dropping to around 1SM at times. Snow lessens
by 09 to 10Z Tuesday before ending around 12Z. Ceilings will
remain overcast around 1500 to 2500 feet AGL through 08Z...then
improve to VFR by 12z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ004-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ005>010-022>026-036-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg



Office: OAX FXUS63 KOAX 192342 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 542 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 WV imagery was showing a longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southern CA coastline along with a subtropical moisture feed streaming northeastward from the southern Plains to New England. Meanwhile, extensive stratus shield...per natural color imagery/sfc obs... encompassing the the central Plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered over southeast IA with a strong colds front extending into northern then to central OK. Onset of precip and dominate type tonight is the main issue to contend with. HRRR/RAP13 are consistent showing the CWA will be in a donut hole this evening as two separate areas of precip form...one over SD/NE panhandle and the other over eastern KS/central MO. Soundings indicate the column will eventually saturate out over the CWA toward midnight. With the onset of precip, soundings show the dominate precip type will be light freezing rain over the central/southern CWA, with a mix of light freezing drizzle/sleet to the north before making a change over to all snow shortly after midnight. As of now, it appears that the brunt of ice accumulation will be realized over the extreme southeast NE and the majority of southwest Iowa. Ice accumulations, around a tenth of an inch or so, leading up to the morning rush on Tuesday will quite likely make traveling conditions quite difficult up through the mid morning hours. As for snow accumulations over the northern CWA, expect around an inch or so, with possibly 2 in Knox and Antelope counties. Another round of mixed precip will be possible Thursday in conjunction with several impulses ejecting out of the southwest CONUS/stout isentropic upglide. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Light snow activity will be coming to a close Thursday night as dynamic forcing shifts east and drier airmass filters in from the north. A stout vort max moving into the central Plains could be the focus for another mix precip event Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 536 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 MVFR to occasional IFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday afternoon across eastern Nebraska. Cigs between FL007 and FL015 will be common through the period. Precipitation is expected to increase by 06Z and continue through 15Z, with Freezing Drizzle the initial type at all sites, with a mix with Freezing Rain and Sleet possible as instability increases for several hours 06Z to 10Z. An isolated thunderstorm could occur as well. MVFR cigs will likely remain over the area through Tuesday afternoon after precipitation moves northeast in the morning. Northwest winds 15 to 25kt are also expected. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012- 016-017. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Dergan
Office: GID FXUS63 KGID 192352 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 552 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Flurries have continued on and off all afternoon. The clouds have hampered temperatures from rising as much as they may have. The forecast continues to be a challenge for the short term. Have continued some flurries through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Then the upper wave moves into the area during the evening and expect more precipitation to develop. To the northwest of the forecast area and into the northwest part of the forecast area there will be snow developing. The upper level wave will move to the northeast of the area during the night and the snow will gradually come to an end late night. In addition to the snow to the northwest there will be a chance for some precipitation in the southeast part of the forecast area. The concern with this is there is a warm nose aloft in the southeast. There is also some lack of moisture in the dendritic layer which could make it more drizzle. This precipitation also comes to an end late night. In between, most of the models have some light precipitation for a time during the night. This area brings a few concerns as well. The warm nose does not reach too far into the forecast area, and at the end of the nose there will be a slight isothermal layer. All this means that there could be a little sleet in between the snow and the drizzle. As with the other precipitation, this should end before morning, as well. On Tuesday, a surface high pressure system tries to build into the area. This should help the clouds to diminish and allow for some sunshine. Even with sun, the temperatures should remain on the cold side. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Tuesday night into Wednesday the surface high pressure system will give the area a glancing blow and move off the to east. Tuesday night, the temperatures will drop to the single digits for much of the area, then on Wednesday the temperatures will warm up a little bit. By Wednesday night, there will be some warm advection and this could be an interesting period. There will be a chance of snow in the far southeast part of the forecast area during the night. On Thursday, the warm advection spreads across the area and an upper level wave moves in. The precipitation spreads across the area. The problem comes with the warm advection that brings warming aloft and as the temperatures warm aloft, the snow could change to some freezing drizzle or freezing rain. Models have a few differences in how far the freezing precipitation moves to the north during the day. As the upper wave moves through, the temperature cool back off and during the evening, as the precipitation comes to an end, it should be snow again. This will be a period to watch as it gets closer. Friday into the weekend there should be a warming trend. Each day should be a little warmer. The only concern is there is an upper level wave that moves through Saturday into Saturday night. There could be some rain or snow as this system moves through. Monday will be mainly dry and the temperatures will be around the same as for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Flurries with a few periods of light snow will likely continue on and off again through the evening and overnight hours. Can not rule out a brief period of sleet, but snow should be the predominate precipitation type for our KGRI and KEAR TAF sites. Snowfall amounts will be light and should generally range from a dusting up to a half inch at our TAF sites. Predominate ceiling category through the overnight hours will be MVFR, but can not rule out possibly slipping into IFR for a little while. Ceilings are expected to improve quickly during the day on Tuesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...Wesely