ne discuss
Office: LBF
FXUS63 KLBF 302048
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
348 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier conditions continue through Tuesday with near to slightly
below normal temperatures.
- A marginal (level 1 of 5)with near daily chances risk of severe
storms is expected Tuesday evening across the Sandhills and portions
of southwest Nebraska with damaging winds and hail being the main
threats.
- The next significant precipitation arrives on Friday and Friday
evening, although the severe potential is uncertain at this time.
- Near daily rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Upper level ridging with surface high pressure will remain in place
through Tuesday. Dry and quiet conditions will prevail into Tuesday
afternoon with temperatures near normal (highs mid to upper 80s;
lows upper 50s to low 60s).
More active weather returns for Tuesday evening and overnight as a
shortwave trough tracks across the High Plains. A weak shortwave
will move through the region on Tuesday evening. While the risk for
widespread severe storms is low, an area of moderate instability
(CAPE values near 2500 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, and a
broad area of shear greater than 30 knots) will provide a favorable
environment for some isolated severe storms. These storms are
expected to be primarily diurnally driven and as instability wanes
after sunset, storms will dissipate rather quickly. Inconsistencies
are abundant amongst the hi-res models and therefore locations of
impact are a little uncertain. However, many of the guidance
suggests initiation across the western Sandhills by late afternoon
or early evening with storms moving to the southeast through mid to
late evening. Have gone ahead and blanketed much of the region in
slight chance PoPs (20 to 25 percent) due to the inconsistencies,
but added a small region of 30 percent in the western Sandhills
where initiation is expected to occur. This will likely change as we
head into tomorrow and the event begins to unfold.
As previously mentioned, severe storms come to an end by late
evening, but some lingering showers or embedded thunderstorms may
continue through the night. An overall weakening trend in showers
though should be expected as sunrise Wednesday morning approaches.
Otherwise, temperatures remain near normals in the upper 80s on
Tuesday with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Upper level will continue to slide eastward throughout mid-week.
This will keep dry conditions in place through Thursday. However,
some mild warm air advection into the region will result in a steady
increase in temperatures back into the mid 90s by Thursday.
Near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will return on
Thursday night lasting through the weekend. While confidence in
locations of impact and timing is low, the latest guidance suggest a
greater probability of widespread convection on Friday and Friday
night as a cold front gets dragged across the region. While severe
potential uncertain, the best instability and forcing will be on
Friday which may lead to stronger and an increased probability for
severe storms. Large hail, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and
strong wind gusts will be the main threats with the Friday storms.
Also confidence in exact timing is low, but as with most summer
storms, greatest timing of convection will likely be late afternoon
and into the evening which may unfortunately impact holiday
celebrations. Stay tuned to later forecasts on the holiday storm
potential as models get a better handle on the environment.
Otherwise, afternoon and evening storms will continue through the
weekend, however, the severe potential is low at this time. Also the
passage of the cold front on Friday night will drop overall
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees across the region. Highs will
fall from the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday to the mid to upper 80s
for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will also drop for the
weekend from the mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday night into the upper
50s to mid 60s for Friday and Saturday nights.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Quiet aviation conditions as high pressure remains overhead through
Tuesday morning. Winds will change from northwesterly to southerly
by Tuesday morning, but will generally remain at or below 10 knots.
With clear to mostly clear skies, VFR conditions will remain in
place through the TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
Office: OAX
FXUS63 KOAX 302240
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
540 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon for areas south of Interstate-80. Brief, weak
funnel clouds will be possible with any showers.
- Highs are expected in the 80s to low 90s through Thursday,
with light precipitation chances (20%) Wednesday and Thursday.
- Increased thunderstorm chances (40-60%) arrive Friday evening
with intermittent storm chances into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Short Term (Today through Thursday)
Upper-level analysis this afternoon reveals a mid- to upper-level
ridge centered over the Four Corners region, with troughing present
across the Great Lakes region. This places much of our area under
prevailing northwesterly flow aloft. A departing shortwave trough
that supported this mornings MCS is now exiting the area. It will be
another warm and muggy day, with highs in the low to mid 80s and
dewpoints lingering in the 60s to low 70s.
Isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible
through the afternoon and evening, particularly south of Interstate-
80 as a weak surface front gradually sinks southward. Given steep
low-level lapse rates, sufficient 0-3 km shear, and just enough
convergence along the boundary, brief and weak funnel clouds may
develop with any showers. These funnel clouds rarely reach the
ground, and in the rare cases they do, they can produce wind speeds
of 50+ mph. Showers will taper off and progress southward into the
early evening. Overnight, areas of fog may develop, though breezy
conditions just above the surface should limit any fog to patchy and
wind-protected areas.
Surface high pressure will build into the region on Tuesday,
bringing mostly clear skies and gradually warming temperatures.
Highs are expected in the upper 80s on Tuesday. Similar conditions
are expected on Wednesday, with highs climbing into the low 90s. Low
PoPs (15-20%) return to northeast NE late Wednesday as a weak
shortwave disturbance slides around the ridge across the northern
Plains. Thursday will be similar, with highs in the low 90s and PoPs
ranging from 15-30% as another weak disturbance passes nearby. No
day looks like a complete washout, but on-and-off isolated to
scattered showers will be possible.
Long Term (Friday and Beyond)
A pattern shift is expected Friday into Saturday as a more robust
shortwave trough enters the central and northern Plains, driving a
frontal boundary into the warm, moist, and unstable airmass in
place. Thunderstorm chances currently peak Friday evening (PoPs 40-
60%), something to keep in mind if you have outdoor plans this
holiday weekend.
The aforementioned front is then expected to stall somewhere across
the region, meandering north and south through the weekend and
resulting in intermittent chances for showers and storms. GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble based machine learning guidance highlights a portion
of the area in a 5-15% probability of severe weather from Friday
through at least Sunday, given the favorable overlap or shear and
instability. While uncertainty remains regarding timing and location
of specific hazards in this extended time frame, this will be a
period to monitor.
High temperatures in the extended period are expected to remain
seasonable and generally in the mid 80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Quiet weather is settling into the area with gusty northwesterly
winds quickly relaxing this evening and setting into a slow 3
knot whisper out of the northwest overnight and continuing
through much of Tuesday, too. Expect clear skies.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen
Office: GID
FXUS63 KGID 302126
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
426 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry, cooler, and less humid tonight into Tuesday.
- Upper 80s to lower 90s return in time for the 4th of July,
before cooling slightly for the weekend.
- Mother Nature may have some of her own fireworks for the 4th
of July, and additional off and on chances continue through
much of the weekend.
- This is obviously potentially unfortunate for outdoor
events/activities, but it is too soon to determine specific
timing, coverage, or severity - so keep an eye on updated
forecasts as we move through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Initial cold front from last night has swept well S of the area
today, leading to cooler, drier air and refreshing Nrly breezes.
A secondary/re-inforcing front is also moving N to S through the
area, currently near/along the NE/KS state line. Some isolated
to widely scattered showers/storms have developed along this
convergence zone in SE Nebraska last few hours. Can't completely
rule out a few cells backbuilding into far SE portions of the
CWA next few hours, but seems like only ~10% chance attm, so
kept the forecast dry. This re-inforcing shot should make for a
very pleasant evening and overnight as lows drop back nicely
into the mid 50s to lower 60s from N to S. One other caveat -
with the clear skies, lgt winds, and recent rainfall...could see
patchy areas of shallow ground fog develop around dawn. Not
really seeing much support for this from a model perspective,
but local experience suggests its at least a chc worth noting.
Shortwave ridging edges E/SE on Tue and allows for return flow
to gradually incr from W to E during the day. Not expecting much
for cloud cover, so should be able to warm back into the mid to
upper 80s, perhaps near 90F in Furnas Co. CAMs ignite scattered
convection over the High Plains Tue aftn/eve, then try to move
this activity eastward down I-80 after dark. 18Z HRRR attempts
to move convection to Hwy 283 corridor by around midnight, with
rapid weakening thereafter. Have kept some slight chances
(~20%) in the forecast to account for this potential.
Srly flow becomes more established by Wed and temps should
respond accordingly into the upper 80s to lower 90s area wide.
Will also feel more humid with seasonable dew points returning
to the upper 60s to lower 70s. High Plains convection appears
less likely Wed PM.
Pattern generally turns more active for the second half of the
week, and into next weekend, which unfortunately, coincides with
outdoor activities/events associated with the 4th of July. While
no single day looks like a complete/sure washout worthy of
cancellations...each day will carry at least some potential for
showers/storms that tend to focus during the evening and
overnight hours. Of the unofficial 4-day holiday weekend, 4th of
July/Thursday itself looks to have some of the lowest chances,
and at least through the early evening, focused mainly along/S
of the state line. Ensemble guidance shows and general uptick in
chances/coverage Fri into Sat, however, and latest operational
EC indicates continued MCS potential into Sun. Again, too early
to determine specific severity and potential rain amounts.
Climatologically speaking, though, would expect at least SOME
risk for damaging wind gusts and heavy rain with the strongest
activity as MUCAPEs rise to 2000-4500 J/kg, at times, and PWATs
incr to ~2 std deviations above normal. Areas that have received
heavy rainfall over the past week will certainly want to keep up
to date on latest forecasts, but at least we're getting a few
dry days in now. Temperatures should fall back to primarily 80s
for the weekend amidst greater cloud cover/convective debris.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR through the period. Can't completely rule out some patchy
shallow ground fog around dawn Tue AM, but potential coverage
too spotty to include attm. Ongoing NW breeze will become lgt
and variable this evening. Expect a return to Srly flow by
midday Tuesday. Confidence: High.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
3-5 inches of rain fell last night across much of Smith and
Jewell Counties in north central Kansas, most of which occurred
in only 6-9 hours. The heaviest 4-5" swath fell squarely on the
White Rock Creek watershed, and as a result, the creek remains
at or above flood stage near Burr Oak as of 4PM. It appears the
creek at the gauge site has crested, but expect only a slow fall
this evening thanks to fact that heavy rain fell along nearly
the entire reach. Still a lot of water to move into Lovewell
Reservoir, which has already risen by about a foot.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
HYDROLOGY...Thies
