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Office: LBF
FXUS63 KLBF 222334
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Red Flag Warning for today and Thursday for all of western
   and north central Nebraska

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
  with the potential for dry lightning

- Isolated thunderstorms possible late tonight across north
  central Nebraska

- Increasing confidence in precipitation Saturday night through
  Monday. Beneficial amounts continue to look more favorable
  for the area.

- Wet snow may occur across the northwest portion of the
  forecast area on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

 The main concern in the short term will be critical fire
weather conditions today and Thursday and thunderstorm potential
this afternoon and evening.

For this afternoon a sfc trof will push eastward with some isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development possible. Storms that
develop across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 83, are
expected to be high based. Soundings across western Nebraska have
the inverted v signature and thus expect thunderstorms to remain
mostly dry with very little rainfall expected and the potential from
some downdraft winds that could potentially be 50 mph or greater.
There will also be a threat for dry lightning as well. Southerly
winds should advect some moisture into portions of the Sandhills and
north central Nebraska, generally along and east of HWY 83. As
storms move eastward into the evening hours they may move into a
more favorable environment for more sfc based storm development.
This will then lead into main hazard of concern becoming a hail
threat, although there may be more moisture at the sfc to the mid
levels east of HWY 83, still don't expect rainfall amounts with
thunderstorms to be anything more than a few hundredths of an inch.

Tonight a low level jet will strengthen across the area. There will
be a corridor of moisture from the Sandhills into north central
Nebraska and expect some sfc based storms to develop late tonight,
generally after 11pm CDT and continue into the early morning hours.
Backing sfc winds and CAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
confidence is increasing in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development across the northern Sandhills and will move eastward
into north central Nebraska. Could see the potential for severe hail
(greater than 1").

Winds shift overnight to the west northwest and will remain breezy
through the morning. Winds will increase into the afternoon around
20 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 mph. Soundings across western Nebraska
would suggest the strongest winds will generally along and west of
HWY 83. Min RH will also be low with most locations across southwest
Nebraska and the southern Sandhills ranging from 10 to 15 percent,
elsewhere min RH will generally be in the upper teens to around 20
percent. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 10am CDT to 8pm
CDT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend. The
northern stream system will continue to weaken to the north on
Saturday, while a southern stream upper level trough moves into the
western United States. This will result in broad southwest flow
across the region.

At the surface, low pressure is expected to develop across eastern
Colorado, with a warm front extending across Kansas and gradually
moving north. This will promote increasing moisture advection and
support deeper moisture profiles across the area Saturday night into
Sunday, especially as the warm front continues to move northward. By
early Sunday morning, increasing mid-level warm air advection and
frontogenesis, combined with southeast upslope flow, will lead to
precipitation developing and continuing through much of the day.
Recent model guidance continues to indicate an increasing potential
for a widespread precipitation event from Saturday night through
Monday morning.

The NBM 50th percentile currently suggests widespread precipitation
amounts exceeding one-half inch, while the 75th and 90th percentile
indicate potential closer to one inch. Ensemble guidance also
supports this trend, with the GEFS showing a 60 to 70 percent
probability of exceeding one-half inch, and the EPS indicating 70 to
90 percent probabilities across the Sandhills into central/north-
central Nebraska. Across southwest Nebraska, probabilities are
somewhat lower but still in the 40 to 50 percent range, increasing
confidence in a soaking precipitation event. In addition to the
rainfall, there is some potential for wet snow, particularly across
the northwest portion of the CWA, as cooler air associated with the
northern stream system lingers. Ensemble guidance suggests a 50 to
60 percent chance of at least one inch of snowfall in this area. The
primary uncertainty remains the track and speed of the weekend
system, both of which will influence overall precipitation amounts
and distribution across the region.

Heading into the early next week, cooler temperatures will follow in
the wake of the weekend system, with lows near or below freezing
Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s,
warming into the 60s by Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected to
persist, with multiple weak disturbances bringing periodic chances
for showers. Another stronger storm system may approach the region
by midweek, potentially bringing additional and better precipitation
chances. This will continued to be monitored over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026


Strong winds will continue through the evening before diminishing
slightly after Midnight CT. Southerly wind gusts up to 40 knots
during the evening should be expected. Winds will shift to the
southwest behind a frontal boundary early Thursday morning as well
as decreasing down to near 20 to 25 knots. Winds will increase once
again by late Thursday morning and into the afternoon with westerly
gusts up to 35 knots. There is also some isolated rain or
thunderstorm chances along with the frontal passage. These storms
will remain discrete initially, but could congeal into a line by mid
to late evening. The majority of this late evening thunderstorm
activity should remain east of US-83 and therefore east of both
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through mid
evening across all of western and north central Nebraska.
Southerly wind gusts up to 50 MPH remain possible through sunset
with winds decreasing into the late evening hours. Winds will
then shift to the west overnight as a surface trough of low
pressure tracks through the region. In addition to gusty winds
and low RH across all of western and north central Nebraska,
there is also a threat for dry lightning tonight mainly west of
highway 83 from Valentine to North Platte. RH recovery tonight
will be meager with max RH generally less than 40 percent west
of highway 61. Between highway 83 and 61, RH recovery will range
from 40 to 60 percent. East of highway 83, RH recovery will
range from 60 to 90 percent.

Thursday will feature critical fire weather conditions across all
of western and north central Nebraska. Though temperatures will be
cooler, westerly winds gusting up to 40 MPH, will combine with low
relative humidities of 10 to 20 percent, producing critical fire
weather conditions across all of western and north central
Nebraska. West winds will shift to the northwest and north
Thursday evening as a cold front crosses the area. RH recovery
Thursday night will range from 70 to 85 percent across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez/Labenz
AVIATION...Kulik
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler



Office: OAX FXUS63 KOAX 230102 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme to very high fire danger is still on track through the early evening. - Dreary conditions move in overnight, with some drizzle possible early. - Strong to severe storms are still on track to develop Thursday afternoon and evening (15% severe chance for any given storm), with the greatest risk from 2 PM to 8 PM. - Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances for showers Saturday (30%) into Sunday (80%). && .UPDATE... Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 The Red Flag Warning for northeast Nebraska has been allowed to expire. Increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of our next weather system is greatly limiting fire danger. Relative humidity has climbed above 40 percent across the region with further increases overnight. Strong south winds will continue though. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad trough pushing further eastward across the western third of the CONUS, with a band of ascent draped across the Southern to Northern High Plains. Low stratus that surged northward across the area this morning has since eroded, as daytime mixing has kicked off. A potent low-level thermal ridge has developed in anticipation of the aforementioned trough, increasing wind speeds over the local area that we've mixed into despite maintaining a relatively shallow boundary layer. Gusts are expected to peak this afternoon in the 30-40 mph range, with warmer temperatures driving relative humidity values below 30%. The combination of the strong winds and lower relative humidity values is leading to extreme fire danger across northeast Nebraska into South Dakota, with a Red Flag Warning in place through 8 PM this evening. At that point, winds will continue into the overnight hours while temperatures cool to allow humidity values to rebound. Overnight, that area of warm air advection/forcing for ascent will shift eastward, filling in the area with cloud cover late this evening into the overnight hours. Some light showers or areas of drizzle will be possible, but won't amount to much while temperatures bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s. The main concern of the short-term forecast arrives tomorrow at noon, where a Pacific Front will provide a focus for ascent associated with the larger trough to the west. To the east of the front, we'll keep low clouds through the morning and early afternoon, potentially lulling people into a false sense of security that storms may not happen. Over time, the capping inversion that was strengthened by warm air advection overnight will weaken, allowing storms to form along the front as it slowly pushes across the area. Plenty of shear and instability will be in place for strong to severe storms to occur, with the devil being in the details as to what that may look like. A large component of the deeper-shear vector in forecast profiles are in line with the initiating boundary, making multicellular clusters the likely storm mode, where the is some initial room for isolated cells that struggle initially with the dry air above 700 mb. Profiles favor large hail and marginally severe wind with the strongest storms, and possibly a tornado or two. In terms of uncertainty and timing, one the first things to mention is the placement of the front during the afternoon, namely the two camps of model solutions. The most likely scenario places the front along a line from Fairbury to Onawa, while the other camp (comprised of largely experimental models like the MPAS) has it 2-3 counties to the west. Shifting to timing, the widespread cloud cover may make it hard to see initial storms struggling with the cap. By 17z that inversion will be weakening, and the initial updrafts will generally be weaker due to entrainment. Stronger storm initiation should occur somewhere between 2-4 PM, and would be in close proximity or just west of the Lincoln and Omaha/Council Bluffs Metro areas as they form. Once they get a head of steam, they should grow upscale and move across the eastern half of the forecast area, clearing it by 7- 8 PM. Overall rainfall amounts will be dependent on where the storms initially form, but it looks again that areas that desperately need rainfall (particularly northeast Nebraska) may miss out on meaningful rainfall. Behind the front, very dry air will fall into place and will increase fire danger to be very high where rain does not fall. Friday and Beyond: With the Thursday's remaining storms having pushed off to the southeast, the weather pattern for Friday and Saturday will be shaped by the lingering cutoff low centered over Saskatchewan Manitoba. Squat mid/upper flow will turn from westerly to southwesterly flow heading into the weekend, with another arm shedding off and moving southeastward from the main low, helping to force lighter rain chances that move into the area Saturday. Highs will dip from upper 60s to near 70 degrees Friday into the low-to- mid 60s with several wind shifts occurring. Sunday into Monday, a negatively-tilting shortwave will kick out across the Central and Northern Plains. Widespread rain/storm chances are anticipated over the course of the two days, with the initial wave currently timing out for increased severe storm potential Sunday afternoon, especially for southeast Nebraska. Once that system kicks off to the east, we'll be dealing with zonal flow and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s through mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 VFR conditions and strong south winds gusting to between 30 and 35 kts continue this evening. As our next weather system approaches, decreasing ceilings overspread the area. MVFR ceilings expand from southwest to northeast between 05Z and 08Z. The strong south winds are expected to continue with little reduction in speeds or gusts. There is a low (15 to 30% chance) of showers and thunderstorms between approximately 06Z and 12Z for all terminals. Additional aviation impacts would be short- lived with this activity if it does occur. At this time, uncertainty on the amount of coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area precludes inclusion in the TAF. IFR ceilings are anticipated at OMA during the morning hours between 14Z and 17Z. LNK may develop IFR ceilings also, but confidence is low at this time. IFR ceilings may end up holding to the east of LNK. A quick increase to MVFR and eventually VFR ceilings arrives by the afternoon from west to east across the area with an approaching front. This front is expected to cause the development of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening, but this is towards the end of this TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Chehak DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Chehak
Office: GID FXUS63 KGID 222339 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Into this evening: The combination of strong south winds (gusts 35-45 MPH), along with relative humidity (RH) as low as 25-35 percent, will continue to drive near-critical to critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM for Nebraska counties mainly along and northwest of a Beaver City-Kearney-Fullerton line, where RH is overall-lowest. - This evening (prior to midnight): there is a small chance that a thunderstorm or two could try brushing into the extreme western fringes of our forecast area...mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties...although it is more likely that any storms remain entirely west of this area. - Very late overnight-early Thurs AM: there is a slightly better chance that isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms could develop into more of our area, but mainly favoring Nebraska counties along and north of Interstate 80. This activity seems unlikely to be severe. - Thursday fire weather: from mid-morning through early evening, near- critical to critical fire weather conditions will develop across much of our area. The highest potential for critical fire weather conditions will reside within counties along and west of a line from Greeley to Grand Island Nebraska, to Phillipsburg Kansas...where a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 10 AM until 8 PM. - Thursday thunderstorm potential: Although it now appears that the vast majority of any severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening should focus slightly east and southeast of our forecast area altogether, our far eastern and southeastern counties remain under at least a Marginal Risk for severe storms at this time, just in case storms happen to develop farther west over our area (chances have REALLY decreased versus 24 hours ago). - Friday night-Sunday night: various/intermittent chances for much-needed rain and thunderstorms. Storms should mostly be sub-severe, but cannot rule out limited severe potential mainly Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday (10 AM-8 PM) for roughly the northwest half of our CWA. This MIGHT actually be our last critical fire weather concern for several days, which would be welcomed! Please refer to separate Fire Weather section below for all further discussion on this topic. - Decreasing severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday afternoon- evening: What a change 24 hours has made! Yesterday, various forecast models slowed down the passage of Thursday's cold front/dryline...seemingly bringing at least the eastern one- third to perhaps one-half of our CWA "under the gun" for a severe storm threat during the afternoon-evening. However, overnight model runs (and continuing into today) have abruptly sped up this front again...in turn firing up any severe storms at least SLIGHTLY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. Out of an abundance of caution, SPC has for now maintained an official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for a few of our far east- southeast counties on their latest Day 2 outlook, but they did shift the western edges of their Marginal Risk (level 1) to the east of Hwy 281. IN SUMMARY: barring a surprising "last minute" shift back west (unlikely but cannot totally rule it out just yet), the threat for severe storms in our CWA on Thursday appears to have diminished quite a bit versus 24 hours ago. -- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. April 29): -- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Overall, today has turned out very much as expected: Windy (southerly gusts 30-40 MPH with spotty 45 MPH) and warm, with highs on track to top out mainly 80-86 degrees. It's also remained rain/storm-free. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm the onset of a more active weather pattern these next several days, as we are under increasing southwesterly flow aloft...downstream from a potent shortwave trough/closed low currently churning through the Northern Rockies. Down at the surface, the pressure gradient has really tightened up across our Central Plains region today, driven by a strong (roughly 990 millibar) low pressure center over eastern MT, which has in turn kicked up our stout southerly winds. - THIS EVENING (mainly pre-midnight): The vast majority of our CWA will surely remain dry and continued windy/breezy out of the south (gusts at least 25-35 MPH even after dark), as a surface trough/weak cold front slowly approaches our area from the west-northwest. Technically, the EXTREME western fringes of our CWA (mainly western Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) remain under a Marginal Risk for a rogue severe storm via the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, and we are carrying some low-end chances/PoPs to cover this possibility. However, high-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) strongly suggest that the vast majority of this activity should remain at least 25-50 miles west of our CWA altogether...with storms tracking more north than east. That being said, we will have to keep an eye on our western fringes...just in case a non-zero thunderstorm threat does materialize. - LATE OVERNIGHT (post midnight): As the early morning hours go by, the surface cold front will gradually invade our CWA from west-to-east...reaching roughly halfway through by sunrise. Ahead of this boundary, southerly winds will remain breezy but gradually diminish in speed, while behind the boundary breezes will switch to out of the northwest. As for rain/thunderstorm chances, odds still favor MOST areas staying dry. That being said, some fairly weak elevated instability (rooted mainly above 800 millibars) could spark some isolated/scattered showers and possibly some weak thunderstorms. These could occur almost anywhere in our CWA, but appear to MOSTLY favor counties along/north of I-80. That being said, chances are currently no higher than 20-40%. As for low temps, they will hold up well into the upper 50s-low 60s most places (aided in part by a large mass of low clouds expected to overspread most of our CWA), with some cooler low- mid 50s sneaking into only our far west-northwest counties around/just after sunrise as drier air moves in there first. - THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: As already highlighted above, the faster passage of the frontal boundary/dryline represent a fairly big change versus expectations from 24 hours ago. The morning starts with lingering low-level clouds mainly over the eastern 1/3 of our CWA, while mid-high level clouds linger central/west. There MIGHT be a few lingering showers/weak storms over our eastern counties in the morning-early afternoon as well, but these appear to be far from "soaking rains". Out of caution as much as anything (and in line with SPC Day 2 Outlook), we linger some small thunderstorm chances into our far east-southeast counties during the late afternoon-early evening, but latest HRRR/NAMNest focus most all severe potential now 25-50 miles east-southeast of our CWA altogether. In other departments: The post-frontal west-northwesterly breezes will take over our entire area, generally sustained 10-20 MPH/gusting 15-30 MPH (highest west/weakest east). High temps were changed very little, ranging mid-upper 70s north/west to low 80s south/southeast. - THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Any thunderstorm chances that might have existed quickly wane, with skies becoming mostly clear in the wake of the passing upper disturbance. Northerly breezes will average at least 5-10 MPH, which will keep temps from "tanking" too far, but still lows will be quite a bit cooler than tonight...aimed from mid- upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s southeast (very low chance for a little frost far northwest around Ord?...not currently in official forecast). - FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: The vast majority of the day-early evening looks dry as breezes shift from northerly to more easterly. High temps aimed 60s north to low-70s south. However, already by early evening and especially overnight, some low-end rain/weak thunderstorm chances arrive from the west...mainly targeting our northern counties per latest model data. - SATURDAY-SUNDAY: While not a non-stop rain situation by ANY means, this will be an overall-active few days as another large-scale shortwave trough gradually approaches/invades our region from the west- southwest. Although rain chances/PoPs are at least no higher than 50% for Saturday, they still might be overdone. However, more widespread and higher-confidence chances arrive Sunday- Sunday night with the main wave...during which time much of our area COULD pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain. Although far too early to pinpoint details, at least our southern counties MAY need monitored for a strong to severe storm threat mainly Sunday...although this would appear to mainly be an elevated storm threat (meaning mainly hail). High temps both days aimed mainly 60s, with lows mainly upper 30s-40s. - MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Various, intermittent chances for rain shower and mainly weak thunderstorms continue, as our flow aloft remains quasi-zonal (west-east) before turning more southwesterly mid-week. Temperatures continue to lean at least slightly toward the cooler side (especially compared to lately), with highs aimed mainly upper 50s-upper 60s...and lows mainly mid 30s-mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A few high-level clouds have recently moved in overtop of the area. Later tonight (around 4-6z), a deck of low-level stratus is expected to sweep by ahead of a passing cold front. These clouds will likely (60-75% confidence) have bases near 2,000ft, bringing MVFR ceilings to both terminal sites (around a 25% chance of IFR ceilings). MVFR conditions will look to stick around through 9-13z, first clearing out of KEAR ahead of KGRI. A few thunderstorms may additionally appear in the vicinity of the terminal sites between 8-12z. At this time, confidence does not warrant a mention outside of a PROB30 group. Broken to scattered non-MVFR skies should carry out through the remainder of the period. As far as winds go, breezy southerly winds currently in place will be slow to lighten tonight until the cold front nears the area Thursday morning. Gusts are expected to maintain between 30-40kts through the rest of the night. The frontal passage between 10-14z will steer wind directions from the south to the northwest. Winds, though lighter than tonight, will still be possible to gust as high as 20-25kts through Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 - THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING: Despite dewpoints/relative humidity (RH) technically running higher than our "usual" critical criteria (mainly dropping no lower than 25-35 percent), this RH is deemed "low enough"...given the presence of strong south winds gusting as high as 35-45 MPH along with long-standing dryness...to justify the continuation of a Red Flag Warning through 8 PM for roughly the northwestern 1/3rd of our forecast area (CWA). Although moderately-strong south winds will continue beyond 8 PM, RH will steadily recover upward later this evening...climbing back to 60+% by 10-11 PM. - THURSDAY: One final round of critical fire weather concerns (perhaps our last for several days?) arrives Thursday, as although it will not be as windy as today (northwest winds gusting up to around 25-30 MPH), RH will be considerably lower...bottoming out 10-15% within all but our far eastern-southeastern CWA. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of our Nebraska counties along/west of Highway 281...along with Phillips County KS...valid 10 AM-8 PM. Please note this is an earlier-than-usual "start time" due to the very dry air causing RH to fall quickly post-sunrise. The main limiting factor as to why this Warning does not extend farther east-southeast at this time, is that winds are currently expected to consistently fall short of gusting 25+ MPH, but this will need closely monitored in later forecasts in case eastward expansion becomes more warranted. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ039- 040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046-047-060-061-072-073-082. KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Stump FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch