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Office: BIS

FXUS63 KBIS 160340
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Winds have been a little slow to diminish over northern areas, but
should start to slowly trend down. Otherwise, quiet weather will
continue.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Quiet weather continues as winds start to slowly diminish. Minimal
changes needed for early evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

The main forecast issue in the short term period will be
temperatures and winds.

Currently, a dry frontal boundary is moving through central North
dakota. Winds have become gusty over western ND early this
afternoon with gusts to around 40 mph at Dickinson last couple of
hours. We did see a gust to 51 mph at Hettinger last hour, but
overall max gusts are 35 to 40 mph in the west. All model
guidance shows the winds continuing through mid afternoon before
diminishing. Models also show boundary layer not mixing out
sufficiently over central ND. We may be a little breezy for a
couple hours, but not expecting near Advisory criteria winds as we
are seeing in the west.

Temperatures are responding nicely with the frontal passage, with
40s and some lower 50s already in the west. Weak cold advection
has already begun in the west so do not expect them to rise much
more this afternoon. Should see a nice bump in temperatures yet
across the central, before leveling off mid-late afternoon.

Mid level trough pushes quickly east tonight with a ridge
rebuilding across the Rockies. Winds remain breezy, north
central, and should keep overnight lows once again in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Temperatures and minimal precipitation chances highlight the long
term forecast period.

We do cool down on Sunday (relatively speaking) as our Highs
Sunday will still be 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

Sunday night and Monday the upper level ridging over the Rockies
propagates east, into the forecast area. Increasing gradient
winds in the west should keep overnight temperatures mild (in the
20s) Sunday night, while the Turtle Mountains area will see more
seasonable lows, around 10 above.

Temperatures at 850MB Monday afternoon approach those expected
today, thus another warm day is anticipated. Light southerly
winds will limit mixing, so temperatures are not expected to get
quite as warm as today. On Tuesday, we cool slightly aloft but
with a southwest flow, a little stronger than Monday, we'll
see temperatures similar to a little warmer than Monday with
readings in the mid 30s northeast to around 50 southwest.

We utilized temperatures on the warmer side of guidance for highs
Sunday through Tuesday.

Shortwave troughs tracking through the region on Wednesday and
again on Friday will bring minimal chances of light rain or snow.
The shortwave on Friday will bring a piece of colder Canadian Air
into the forecast area by Saturday, which may bring our
temperatures back down to near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JJS



Office: FGF FXUS63 KFGF 160449 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 No significant updates planned for this late evening. An updated Aviation Discussion is attached below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 Temperatures will be the main issue for the period. Water vapor loop shows a fairly strong shortwave entering northwestern ND. There have been some light radar returns north of Minot this afternoon, but from web cams and surface obs not much of anything seems to be reaching the ground. Model soundings in the northern CWA for this evening have a pretty strong dry layer just above the surface. May have to watch the northwest Angle in Lake of the Woods, but overall think chances of any significant precip with the shortwave are slim. The system will push the surface trough further east however, and winds will shift to the west then northwest behind it. West winds will remain rather breezy this evening, and there should be some downsloping. Temps will stay fairly mild overnight, not really dropping into the 20s until the early morning hours. Northwesterly flow behind the shortwave into tomorrow, with some cirrus clouds moving in from the west late in the day. Northwesterly surface winds will bring some decent cold air advection, and knock back temps a bit for Sunday. Some non-diurnal temperatures are not out of the question, but for now think that there will be enough sunshine to allow readings to recover a couple of degrees from morning lows. With the decent gradient and cold air advection, winds will be fairly breezy and will feel quite a bit colder than today, although still above seasonal averages for mid-December. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 Warmer than normal weather continues for the long term period with some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Friday into Saturday. Sunday night through Wednesday... Slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures Sunday night after the passage of the cold front earlier in the day. Upper level ridging will lead to quiet weather Sunday night through Monday night. A system will pass to the north of the Canadian border on Tuesday with little chance of any precipitation south of the Canadian border. Warmer air returns Tuesday and Wednesday, but with this warmer air comes the next chance for rain and snow as a short wave moves into the Northern Plains. Models continue to be in poor agreement with the system in deterministic models and with large ensemble spread. Impacts look to be minor at this point with significant snow accumulations very unlikely. Thursday through Saturday... After Wednesday's system 500 mb heights rise again and upper level ridging returns. This also leads to cooler, but once again still above average temperatures. Another short wave looks to move into the Northern Plains on Friday into Saturday, but confidence remains low in this system. Model solutions have better agreement now in timing and location, but still have significant differences. Most significantly different is the 500 mb patterns which result in different storm strengths and therefore impacts. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 Expect VFR conditions across the area with SCT upper level cloud decks pushing across far northwest Minnesota during the overnight period. Expect near surface westerly winds to swing steadily from the west-northwest during the overnight period as a secondary boundary crosses the area. Monday should see fair skies with west-northwest winds at 10-15 kts through much of the day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Gust SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...NC AVIATION...Gust