Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

nd discuss


Office: BIS

FXUS63 KBIS 250600
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Made a few changes to temperatures. Lowered min temps south
central and into JRV where skies have cleared, or will shortly,
and temperatures have dropped. Didn't drop temperatures too low
as a large area of stratus continues to move towards the area.
Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 853 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

No significant changes with this forecast update. Continued 20-30
PoPs across western North Dakota into the early overnight as the
impulse across northeast Montana as of 0250 UTC will continue to
propagate southeast.

UPDATE Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Quick update to increase PoPs for this evening for radar trends
through 23 UTC across central North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows two distinct shortwaves, one in
the northern branch and the other within the southern branch. Both
branches/shortwave troughs are more or less in phase with each
other as they shift through the Dakotas this afternoon. The first
shortwave can be seen in north central North Dakota with an area
of enhanced radar reflectivities north of Minot. A more widespread
light snow event continues over far south central/James River
Valley associated with a shortwave trough scooting northeast from
South Dakota. Ellendale earlier reported a half inch of snow on
the ground. Light snow across the far north will taper off by
00z/6PM CST Saturday, while the snow in the James River Valley
will exit by midnight tonight.

Farther upstream into Alberta, Saskatchewan, and northern
Montana, a couple more shortwaves will shift into western/central
North Dakota tonight with pockets of light snow, but nothing
significant. Overnight lows will range between 7F and 13F above.

For Sunday, warm air advection shifts from eastern Montana into
western North Dakota. Expect partly to mostly sunny conditions
and dry, with highs 22F to 32F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Overall, a split flow initially gradually consolidates by
midweek. That being said, a potent southern stream upper low
ejects out from the desert southwest Wednesday and into the Ohio
Valley Thursday. The Canadian Model is the only model indicating
some potential for precipitation extending back into the southern
James River Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. And while the
forecast builder hangs onto this idea, it may begin to dwindle as
the GFS/ECMWF indicate dry weather with the precipitation signal
farther east. Otherwise, despite some ripples within the upper
flow pattern during the upcoming week, nothing of any consequence
in terms of precipitation stands out. Temperatures will moderate
with highs in the 30s, just about where we would expect to be for
this time of year. The next chance of potential widespread
precipitation continues to manifest itself in the Saturday through
Sunday timeframe, as both the GFS/ECMWF have a Northern Rockies
trough advertised with precipitation into western/central ND. The
EMC GEFS QPF Plumes advertise this as well. This could become the
main highlight in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018


Decks of MVFR stratus are expected to impact much of western and
central ND overnight. Those ceilings will likely linger through
Sunday morning from the Turtle Mountain region south to KJMS.
However, confidence in the exact timing that the MVFR cloud decks
move in and out of individual terminals is moderate at best, so
some of the 06 UTC TAFs will likely require later amendments based
on observational trends. Regardless, we do expect VFR conditions
to prevail area-wide by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



Office: FGF FXUS63 KFGF 250706 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 106 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 105 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 700mb low now across central Minnesota with deformation zone somewhere across northwest Minnesota. Radar looks dry, but observations suggest 3/4sm to 1sm visibility due to snow into the Roseau, Baudette, Waskish areas. Observer just called in with a 2-3 inch snowfall report just south of Roseau and still snowing. Considering the latest RAP/HRRR QPF forecast through 12z of 0.15 to 0.20 inches, thinking 2-5 inches a snow a good bet by morning. Extending the winter weather advisory northward to cover these areas of deformation zone snow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Fast moving system coming thru with its lift focused in the 500-700 mb layer. Little organized frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer in our area. Water vapor shows vort into SW MN moving northeast and model prog 700 mb low near Huron which will move ENE toward Alexandria this evening. Main moisture area is east of the 700 mb low with heaviest snows now moving into central MN. But north of the 700 mb low radars/obs shows mod/hvy snow moving into far SE ND and WC MN. this area of snow will continue to lift north and eventually east thru the evening with lighter intensity snowfall spreading into the nrn RRV, far NW MN and possibly as far west as Devils Lake for a brief time. Right now snow totals we have had going seem reasonable based on all meso models, etc. So no changes. Snow will end pretty fast overnight, ending 12-14z in Baudette. West winds and a bit warmer Sunday. Expecting no serious blowing snow issues behind this system though a bit gusty winds from the west Sunday may cause some low level drifting/blowing in some areas...but the areas that will get the heaviest snow will see a bit lighter winds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 No significant weather impacts expected through the work week. Overall a mild, near average week to end February with a few small chances for light precipitation. For the first half of the week, zonal flow aloft and a split jet stream yield dry weather for across the Northern Plains. With increased sunshine for at least the first half of the week and temperatures peaking near freezing, will likely see increased snow melt. Monday will be quite mild, with highs reaching at or just above freezing at most locations. A clipper passes eastward through southern Manitoba Monday, yielding a negligible chance of flurries along the international border. Behind the clipper, high pressure settles in through Wednesday, bringing more dry weather with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens. For Wednesday into Thursday, a Colorado Low traversing the Central Plains and Ohio Valley wraps enough moisture back into the Northern Plains to yield small chances for light precipitation in west central MN and southern Red River Valley. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Conditions continue to slowly improve for all TAFs except KBJI. Will continue the light snow until about 09-10z, and then it should be about done. Ceilings will be a tough call. There are more MVFR ceilings back west and southwest of KDVL that may brush KGFK/KTVF/KBJI into the morning hours. Wind speeds are expected to increase through the morning, becoming a little gusty by mid to late morning through the afternoon. This will cause some blowing and drifting snow in open areas, but not sure yet if it will be enough to cause vsby restrictions at any of the TAF sites. These winds should begin to decrease by late afternoon into the early evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MNZ005- 006-009. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for MNZ017-023-024-027-028-031-032. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...BP AVIATION...Godon