nd discuss
Office: BIS
FXUS63 KBIS 121912
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
212 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of smoke will exit most of the forecast area this
afternoon, though may linger in parts the James River Valley
through the night. Otherwise, dry with a warming trend through
the weekend.
- Turning cooler north on Monday but remaining hot south. Highs
ranging from the mid 70s far north to the mid 90s far south.
- Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Monday night, some storms could
be strong to severe.
- Notably cooler mid-week with periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Areas of near-surface smoke have cleared out of western North
Dakota, and will continue to clear out of central ND through the
afternoon. Smoke may linger through tonight over eastern parts
of the state, potentially including parts of the James River
Valley. Other than a glancing blow Sunday afternoon near the
Turtle Mountains as smoke slides through northeastern ND, smoke
free skies should then prevail through at least Sunday night.
For tonight, a windshift boundary will pass through the state from
northwest to southeast. CAMs suggest a few returns may accompany
this boundary. However, model forecast soundings present very
dry air near the surface, therefore expect most any returns to
be virga or sprinkles at best. As a result, maintaining a lack
of mentionable PoPs at this time. For Sunday, another dry day is
expected. Surface low pressure to the west with high pressure
to the southeast should generate breezy winds mainly for the
eastern half of the state during the afternoon. Warmer
conditions are also expected with highs ranging from the low 80s
far north to the upper 80s southeast and near 90 southwest.
Mostly dry conditions are then favored Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. That said, a quasi-stationary west to east frontal
boundary may set-up near the Canadian border during this timeframe.
If so, showers, potentially with a few rumbles of thunder, will
be possible in northern ND. In addition, there will be a sharp
temperature gradient as a result of this boundary. At this time,
the deterministic NBM produces highs mainly in the mid 70s
north of Highway 2 to the low 90s near the ND/SD border. Any
shift in the set-up of this boundary further north or south will
moderately impact highs for any given location in the state, as
well as which locations may see showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday afternoon.
Late Monday afternoon and evening is when more impactful weather
may return. As the aforementioned quasi-stationary frontal
boundary begins dipping southward as a cold front, the potential
for severe weather could increase. The couple CAMs that go
through Monday afternoon are already hinting at thunderstorm
development in the very late afternoon. Both SPC and CSU
Machine learning have introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather Monday for much of the state, with CSU also introducing
a narrow ribbon of slight from western SD into south central ND.
Beyond Monday, expect much cooler temperatures for the remainder of
the workweek. Wednesday is favored to be the coolest day of the week
with highs mostly in the 60s, although NBM ensemble 25th/75th
temperature spreads remain fairly large and in excess of 10 degrees.
With the "deterministic" NBM forecasting above the 50th percentile,
there is plenty of room for an even cooler day Wednesday. Other than
cooler temperatures, occasional showers and thunderstorms are
possible through the workweek with severe weather chances generally
low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Smoke is causing MVFR/IFR visibility across all of North Dakota,
except in the southwest. Many ASOS/AWOS observation sites are
reporting MVFR ceilings due to said smoke, however, that is
inaccurate. There are no clouds producing MVFR ceilings in the
state at this time, although diurnal cu developing in eastern ND
may produce low VFR ceilings early this afternoon that will
gradually increase in height before dissipating this evening.
Smoke is expected to continue clearing from west to east this
afternoon, though may linger in eastern North Dakota overnight
tonight. Once smoke clears, VFR ceilings and visibility are
expected through the remainder of the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken
Office: FGF
FXUS63 KFGF 121958
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wildfire smoke will degrade air quality today, with an
additional round Sunday.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Monday. The main hazards are hail, gusty winds, and flash
flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
...Synopsis...
Upper trough on water vapor is pulling eastward into the Great
Lakes, with northwesterly flow aloft setting up for tonight and
into tomorrow. This will bring not much for precipitation
chances but will help shift wildfire smoke from Canada down into
our area. Flow becomes more zonal for Monday, which will help
decrease smoke impacts but increase thunderstorm chances.
Precipitation chances will continue into Tuesday as a cold front
pushes down into the Northern Plains. Falling heights with a
broader trough digging down into the region will bring some
cooler than average temps for the end of the week. Low
predictability for precipitation chances as various weak
shortwaves move through.
...Smoke tonight and tomorrow...
Sat loop shows some thinning of the smoke layer over western
portion of ND, and there has been some locations west of the
Missouri River seeing visibility improvement. Both the HRRR and
Canadian models show some improvements to surface smoke
concentration for later tonight into Sunday morning. However,
there will be another weak cold front coming down tomorrow and
there could be some more smoke coming down to the surface with
subsidence. Exact timing of the break in the smoke and then the
return is uncertain, but should continue to see unhealthy to
very unhealthy air quality through the rest of the weekend.
...Marginal severe chances Monday...
Some moisture return for the beginning of the work week will
help probabilities for CAPE values over 2000 J/kg increase to
over 50 percent Monday afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear is
fairly robust as flow becomes more zonal, up to 40 kts. However,
much will depend on where exactly the surface boundary ends up,
which models have all over the place. At this point think the
severe impacts look pretty isolated, but will continue to
monitor.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Most ceilings are VFR, but smoke from Canadian wildfires
continues to keep many visibilities in the 3-6SM range, with
some locations even down to 2SM at times. There should be a bit
of a break in the surface smoke sometime tonight or tomorrow
morning, but a lot of uncertainty as to exactly when. For now
have a break late tonight into tomorrow morning from west to
east, then another round of smoke towards the end of the period.
Winds gusting from the northwest around 20 kts this afternoon
will decrease and become more southwesterly around 10 kts by
morning, then back to the northwest for the more western
airports by 18Z Sunday.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
