Office: BIS
FXUS63 KBIS 241110
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
610 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend continues through this weekend, with above
normal temperatures for late October (Forecast highs in the
60s to around 70, with normal values in the lower 50s).
- Precipitation chances return late in the weekend through early
next week. The highest chances (40 to 60 percent) are
currently forecast Sunday night through the day Monday central
and east.
- Temperatures will trend cooler (closer to normal) through next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
There are no changes to the forecast with this product issuance.
See below for discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Currently, broad/dirty mid/upper level ridge extends from the
Central Rockies northeast through the Northern Plains into
central Canada early this morning. An embedded mid level
low/closed wave is cutting through the ridge, moving southeast
across far southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, evident via
satellite imagery with a subtle circulation of mid level clouds
depicted. A mostly clear sky across the local region this
morning, with temperatures milder compared to 24 hours ago
thanks to a steady mixing wind up to 10 mph at times.
The eastward progression of the upper ridge resulted in sfc
high pressure pushing farther to the east over the past 12-24
hours, with this pattern persisting today resulting in a weaker
south/southwesterly return flow and a weaker pressure gradient.
Overall pattern will also continue the trend of temperatures
nudging warmer, along with minimal cloud cover and dry weather.
Upper ridge becomes more defined and amplifies on
Saturday, as a long wave trough develops across the western
CONUS. Gradient forcing increases as lee side sfc low pressure
develops in response to the upper trough's eastward
development, with the increase in return flow and position of
the upper ridge axis contributing to further WAA and the warmest
period of this warm spell on Saturday, with widespread
mid/upper 60s - lower 70s forecast for highs (normal high temps
are in the lower 50s).
The upper trough continues to develop eastward on Sunday, with
a strong 150 knot jet streak poking into the Pacific Northwest.
Initial closed upper low develops within the trough, lifting
north/northeast into central Alberta/Saskatchewan Sun
night/Mon. While the bulk of precipitation with this feature
looks to remain west and northwest of North Dakota, embedded
impulses in strong south/southwest flow may bring a few initial
light showers Sun aft/eve to our area. Another strong embedded
impulse develops on the nose of the upper jet and will swing
northeast across the Dakotas Monday through early Tuesday.
Associated sfc low/trough will be the focus for another round of
precip chances, though ensembles and NBM are trending a bit more
east, favoring mainly the eastern Dakotas for light rain with
minimal if any moisture expected west.
Afterwards, a fairly progressive pattern is favored amongst
ensembles for the remainder of next week, with models showing
the potential for mid level shortwave and frontal passages mid
to late next week. Temperatures are also favored to be closer
to normal for next week, though NBM spreads start to increase
after Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 12Z TAF
period. Winds will remain south/southwesterly through the
period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
Office: FGF
FXUS63 KFGF 241137
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with temperatures warming up above average for the
weekend, then more wet conditions early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Brief patchy fog at Bemidji but didnt last long. Band of
high/mid clouds moving east from southeast Manitoba into north
central MN at 11z. Otherwise small patch of clouds upstream with
vort is moving southeast. NBM/Conshort sky coverage seems higher
than what the current system has, so its possible it may be too
cloudy this aftn as upper low moves southeast thru NE ND into
MN. No changes made to grids this go around other than
autopopulate with latest NBM/obs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
...Synopsis...
Sfc high presure is over central Minnesota early this morning.
Southeast wind 5 to 15 kts is over E ND, western MN and this
is preventing temps from falling and fog for forming. Light
winds/calm conditions Baudette to Wadena with temps in the low
20s and ground fog is present in isolated areas around Bemidji
and may develop at a few other areas in that BDE-BJI-PKD area
thru sunrise.
Interesting feature of the day today is a compact but well
defined upper low that is near Yorkton SK at 08z It will move
southeast into NE ND and be near Detroit Lakes by late today. An
area of mid level moisture with this wave, mostly just east of
the circulation, and soundings do show a period of enough
saturation around 700 mb for possible sprinkles, likely virga
showers. Sub cloud layer airmass is quite dry. NBM did throw in
some low chances for showers around BJI/PKD late this aftn/early
evening with increasing chances of showers as it moves more
toward the Twin Cities Friday overnight. Insertion of these low
pops (20s) seems reasonable for now. Later shifts may need to
expand some sprinkle mention if deemed necessary.
Saturday and Sunday will see warmer airmass move in with gusty
south winds. Highs though a tad cooler than was forecast a few
days ago but still upper 50s to mid 60s north to south, which is
a good 10 degrees above normal.
For Sunday night into Tuesday...uncertainity remains in regards
to how much rainfall will occur and in what location does a rain
band set up as an upper wave from the Pac NW moves east and then
northeast over the Dakotas into Manitoba. Consistency in the
models has been poor, so low confidence in amounts, but high
confidence that some rain will occur over the majority of the
fcst area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
VFR thru the pd. Some CI/AC to start around Bemidji to Baudette
and another batch moving southeast with 500 mb low from SW
Manitoba into northeast ND and into MN midday and aftn. But
cloud bases look to be higher end AC, AOA 8kft agl. Winds
south-southeast 10-15kts sustained, a few gusts 20 kts this
morning.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle
