Office: BIS
FXUS63 KBIS 201139
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend this weekend with dry conditions through Sunday
afternoon.
- Rain chances late Sunday through Monday, possibly lingering
into Tuesday. Greatest chances (~30 to 50 percent north of
Interstate 94) come Monday, but this has trended down some.
- Gusty northwest winds Monday.
- Rain chances return later in the work week into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Clouds cover continues to gradually clear from north to south,
with most areas north of Interstate 94 already cleared out. This
trend will continue through the early morning hours, with mainly
sunny skies thereafter. For update, only change was to adjust
cloud cover to match current clearing trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Current surface analysis places low lifting to the northeast of
James Bay, with high settled through central and eastern Montana
into the Central Plains. Upper level analysis places low over
James Bay, with ridge over the west coast. Short wave dropping
down the back side of the low through the Northern Plains
continues to bring some low clouds and flurries to the southern
half our area, though this has been clearing the past few hours
from north to south as the wave continues on its way.
For today, west coast ridge pushes east and amplifies ahead of
an approaching Pacific low. This will result in mainly clear
skies over our area and the start of a warming trend. Quiet
weather remains tonight.
On Sunday ridge passes over but starts to break down as a wave
that ejected off of the aforementioned upper low pushes west
and starts to close off. Ahead of this, temperatures will warm
to a bit above average. Overnight, with the approaching low,
clouds will be on the increase with low chances for some light
rain coming late night primarily to western portions of the
area.
On Monday, chances spread over much of the area, with the
greatest chances (~30-50 percent) being mainly north of
Interstate 94. This has been a little bit of a drop off from the
previous forecasts. Wind shifts west to northwesterly and will
be on the increase. Forecast soundings at this time over western
and southern portions of the area suggest wind gusts of 45 to 50
mph will be possible.
A little rain may linger into Tuesday before the next ridge
builds into the area, bringing dry and mild weather for
Wednesday. Guidance shows persistant trough setting up over the
western CONUS for the later part of the work week into the
weekend resulting in active southwest flow over our area,
bringing rain chances and possibly some thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Low cloud cover with areas of MVFR ceilings mainly along and
south of Interstate 94 will continue to clear out from north to
south this morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
Office: FGF
FXUS63 KFGF 201142
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Need to monitor relative humidity values this afternoon and
Sunday afternoon but RH values less than 25 percent in
Minnesota forecast area. Sunday has highest chance of this (70
percent).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Clouds continue to clear southward with lingering clouds at 1130
UTC from Baudette to Bagley to Detroit Lakes to Forman ND.
Clouds will clear rest of the forecast area by 15z. Upstream
shows some patchy cirrus but otherwise sunny.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Clearing of the clouds is working south-southeast steadily early
this morning and clearing will continue to progress thru mid
morning with all areas anticipated to see the lower clouds out
of the area. There is some patchy high and mid clouds behind the
clearing. Upstream in clear area in central Saskatchewan Friday
there was no CU as airmass is drying as it clears. So will stick
with idea of limited sky cover for midday and afternoon and into
Sunday as well. NW winds will remain breezy, esp in E ND, with
winds 15-25 mph today. Drier airmass moving in will bring in dew
pts in the mid teens to low 20s, and with highs mid 40s to
around 50 look for minimum RH values of 28-35 percent across the
area. Using a NBM/Conshort blend for dew pts yield the 28-33
percent lowest RH values in NW/WC MN not quite low enough for
SPS for near critical fire weather conditions. Per MIFC need min
RH at or below 25 pct.
Sunday with warmer temps (about 10 degrees warmer) RH values do
lower into the low 20s. Winds are west and less mostly 10-15
mph. But SPS for near critical fire weather may be needed on
later shifts for Sunday.
Monday-Tuesday rain chances have lowered from 24 hours ago with
trends in the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles to have progressive
500 mb low move into southern Saskatchewan Monday with a 850 mb
trough/sfc trough extending southeast from it moving into MN.
850 mb moisture return is more focused to our east/southeast and
drier 850 mb winds will be over the area ahead of the upper low,
which will drop southeast into northern MN Mon night/Tues. Some
light rain is anticipated with this system mainly north of upper
low track which favors S Manitoba into southern parts of NW
Ontario and far northern fcst area. Amounts of rain forecast
from WPC are less as well with NBM 4.1 probs for more than 0.25
inch 10 pct in the far north fcst area to less than 5 percent
south.
Thu-Fri will see next system bringing chances for rain to the
area. Ensembles indicate GEFS stronger with system and taking a
more organized upper low and surface low northeast toward the
western Great Lakes vs other models which indicate a bit less
amplified pattern and slightly weaker system. NBM 4.1 probs for
more than 0.25 inch are 40-50 percent in west central MN to
20-30 percent northwest fcst area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Lingering clouds will exit Bemidji area 13-14z, and rest of the
forecast area 15z. Otherwise scattered cirrus but otherwise
should see plenty of sunshine. Will have to watch for some
potential CU development in NW MN this aftn. NW wind today 10-20
kts turning west tonight 8-12kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle
