Office: BIS
FXUS63 KBIS 292350
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
550 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well below average temperatures will continue this weekend
into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 25
below zero will be possible both tonight and Sunday night.
- An active northwest flow is forecast for next week, with
periodic chances for snow and fluctuations in daily
temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
A few light snow showers are being found under low clouds across
central and eastern portions. Some of these are from the exiting
upper level wave, while some are being enhanced from Lake
Sakakawea. Have added in slight PoPs through the evening into
the early overnight hours to account for these tonight, mainly
across central and eastern portions. Otherwise the forecast
remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Mid-afternoon radar continues to show some widespread weak returns
across our far southeast counties as the main storm system
moves away. Latest KJMS ob showed light snow had ended there.
Adjusted max temps for this afternoon downward slightly, mainly
across the west based on current trends and persistent cloud
cover.
The trough that has supported snowfall from last night through today
will push southeast of the state by early evening. Upper level
northwest flow will initially be in place as another embedded
shortwave trough rotates over the state tonight followed by weak
ridging late. Meanwhile, surface high pressure initially centered
around eastern MT will gradually build eastward across ND late
tonight. Although there have been breaks in the clouds this
afternoon for many locations, satellite imagery continues to show
widespread low stratus over northwest ND and areas of low clouds
over much of central ND. Short range forecast guidance including
soundings indicate mostly cloudy skies with low stratus overnight.
Currently, fog does not appear to be as much of a concern but we
will monitor.
The next two nights will be cold with lows ranging from around zero
to 10 below (west coldest tonight). Wind speeds will be on the
lighter side as the high moves overhead, resulting in wind
chills/apparent temps as low as 25 below zero for some locations
tonight and Sunday night (not reaching criteria for any
headlines). As the surface high slides southeast of us by
Monday, return flow sets up, leading to a notably warmer Tuesday
with highs back to the mid 20s and low 30s. This will be
short-lived, however, as a clipper and strong cold front cross
the state on Tuesday, with highs on Wednesday back in the single
digits and teens above zero. At this moment, no significant
impacts with this system are expected based on NBM and ECMWF/GFS
ensemble guidance, but will continue to monitor.
Overall, the pattern remains active through the week with
northwest upper level flow in place and multiple troughs and
ridges crossing the region. This leads to lower predictability
for specifics and is reflected in longer term probabilistic
guidance. NBM 1D viewer shows wide spread in min/max temp probs
especially from around Wednesday through next weekend. Worth
noting also is that Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables from
both ECMWF and NAEFS, along with ECMWF EFI are not highlighting
at this time any high impact weather for the upcoming week,
other than the anomalous cold the next couple nights.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Low clouds with scattered light snow showers will linger through
the evening hours, and perhaps into the early overnight hours.
This could bring some MVFR to perhaps brief IFR conditions. MVFR
clouds could then linger across most central and eastern sites
tonight, with some VFR clouds in the west. A gradual improvement
to VFR cloud cover is then expected for Sunday, although some
sites may see MVFR ceilings linger through the day. Mainly dry
conditions are expected for Sunday. Westerly winds will
generally be found on Sunday, perhaps shifting to the south
across western portions of the state.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...JNS
AVIATION...Anglin
Office: FGF
FXUS63 KFGF 300345
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow gradually ends this evening from northwest to southeast.
- Below average temperatures continue into next week as Arctic
air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. There is a low chance for minor winter impacts
towards the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Clouds have moved through much of the forecast area and the
clear spot has mostly disappeared, and plenty of upstream clouds
so adjusted clouds up through the rest of the night. Also seeing
flurries on and off wherever there is cloud cover, so will
continue mention into early Sunday morning.
UPDATE
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Still getting reports of flurries at times across northwestern
counties where it is clouding in again. Expanded flurry mention
and tweaked cloud cover to match current satellite trends.
Should see the clear area from the northern Red River Valley
down towards Valley City disappear in the next few hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
...Synopsis...
North to northwest H5 flow will bring a surge of Arctic air into the
region tonight, with reinforcing cold air by mid week. Temperatures
are expected to be well below average through the forecast period,
with several chances to fall below zero. The best chances will be
where we have the deepest snow pack, generally in southeast North
Dakota and west central Minnesota. A shortwave brings precipitation
chances back into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
some uncertainty regarding the availability of moisture. Most
ensemble guidance is hinting at generally low QPF and snow
potential. Temps at 850mb have good support down into the -25C to -
20C range heading into Thursday, following the cold front. A second
system approaches toward the end of the week, with slightly better
moisture potential; however, ensemble spread at this time is too
high to support any single solution.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings with scattered light
snow/flurries bringing vis down to 3-5SM at times. A bit of a
clearing area from KGFK southwestward currently, but plenty of
MVFR to even IFR clouds upstream so will not last long. Should
see all stations drop to MVFR later tonight. Scattered flurries
are also possible, but not certain enough to include in the TAFs
beyond the short term. Should be some recovery to VFR towards
the end of the period. Winds will be north to northwesterly at
5 to 10 kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR
