nd discuss
Office: BIS
FXUS63 KBIS 310553
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1253 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of light rain and/or snow across parts of northwest
and central North Dakota overnight into Friday.
- Trick-or-Treat time temperatures on Halloween (Friday) will
mainly be in the 30s, with any lingering precipitation ending
in the James River Valley through the evening.
- A warming trend with dry conditions is expected this weekend.
Seasonable temperatures continue next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Local observations and webcams indicate that mainly very light
rain continues to be the dominate precipitation type, but a
little snow has been mixing in here and there. Current forecast
reflects this well, so only minimal changes needed at this
time.
UPDATE
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Main adjustments for this update were to boost PoPs and refine
precipitation types in the near-term based on observations.
Automated stations and webcams across the north suggest a broad
area of both rain and snow together or interchangeably. This
fits the observed near-surface thermodynamic profile of both
temperatures and dewpoints in the lower to mid 30s.
UPDATE
Issued at 819 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Overall, things are trending as expected. Snow has begun mixing in
along the Highway 52 corridor northwest of Minot, as well as the
Turtle Mountains. Current conditions and latest model trends were
blended into the forecast for this update, resulting in only minor
adjustments.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
This afternoon, a surface low is developing in southern
Manitoba, with the associated upper low slightly offset to the
west. Strong northwest winds are ongoing from a tight pressure
gradient, with occasional gusts up to around 45 mph in the
northwest corner of the state. Cooler air was filtering into the
region behind a cold front that moved through earlier today,
with afternoon highs around 40 degrees along the International
Border to the lower 50s south.
The upper low is expected to track southeast across the state
tonight, ending up in the southeast corner by Friday morning.
CAMs are in solid agreement on starting precipitation chances in
the north central late this afternoon as the low nudges into the
state, with sufficiently deep moisture associated with low
stratus and lift from the upper low. Precipitation potential
expands to the south and east as the low progresses. Current
POPs generally range from 30 to 50 percent, with probabilities
increasing to the east.
On the western extent of the expected precipitation field,
further from the center of the low, there is more confidence in
snow as the predominant p-type tonight. In much of our central
and eastern counties, where overnight lows are forecast to be
right around freezing, we are carrying a rain- snow mix tonight
into Friday. We would expect most locations will at some point
transition to snow, at least briefly, but confidence is low in
overall timing and location. Precipitation is also likely to be
light overall, whether it's falling as rain or snow, but we do
expect some parts of the northwest and central to end up with a
dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. The one area with potential
for more than a dusting of snow would be the Turtle Mountains,
where blended guidance has a medium chance of at least 1 inch of
snow.
In the wraparound northerly flow on the backside of the exiting
low, high-res guidance is pretty confident on at least scattered
rain or snow continuing in our central and eastern counties
through the day Friday, with potentially some lingering showers in
the James River Valley Friday evening. The system will also
usher in even cooler temperatures, leading to a chilly
Halloween. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with
widespread cloudy skies. The good news is that winds will be
diminishing through the day as the low pushes further southeast
and a surface high builds in, so expect drying conditions and
lighter winds through the evening for trick-or-treating,
although air temperatures will only be in the 30s. Friday night
will be chilly from the influence of the surface high, with
forecast lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Ridging builds in for the weekend, with highs on Saturday in the
lower 40s to lower 50s, warming further to the lower 50s to
lower 60s on Sunday. A shortwave is progged to collapse the
ridge on Sunday as it moves through, although right now we are
carrying a dry forecast for the area, with rather limited
moisture available. The main impact looks to be breezy
northwest winds and a slight cool down for Monday, although a
small spread in NBM temperature percentiles indicates high
confidence in highs still mainly in the 50s. Cluster analysis
indicates quasi-zonal flow dominates most of the rest of the
work week, with potentially some low precipitation chances but
nothing looks significant at this point. Above normal
temperatures are favored through next week and into the second
week of November.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Widespread IFR ceilings will develop overnight into early Friday
morning over most of North Dakota, with the exception of the
southwest into parts of the northwest where ceilings are
expected to remain MVFR. Periods of rain and snow are expected,
mainly over central North Dakota, which may result in occasional
drops in visibility to MVFR levels. Conditions will improve late
this afternoon into tonight gradually from west to east.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...JJS
Office: FGF
FXUS63 KFGF 310847
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
347 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain, mixing with a little snow today into tonight. This
will be the season's first snow for some locations, although
no impacts are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
...Synopsis...
An upper level low is meandering through the FA early this morning.
This is bringing widespread light precipitation. It is hard to tell
on area webcams if it is rain or snow falling, but temperatures this
morning are warm enough that most areas are likely seeing rain.
Upstream, ridging is evident over the northwestern US. As we go
through the weekend, this ridge will propagate eastward, bringing
above average temperatures in the 50s to low 60s on Sunday. With
these warmer temperatures comes breezier southerly winds. Winds will
change back to the west northwest by Monday as another cold front
associated with a low over southern Canada ushers in cooler
temperatures to start the work week.
Zonal flow will set up for much of next week, although there is
uncertainty in where we will be in relation to the 500 mb jet. If
the jet is further south, cooler temperatures and a little more
active weather will set up over this FA. On the other side of the
coin, if the jet is further north, we will be a little warmer, with
whatever weak shortwaves that are embedded in the flow staying to
our north, keeping us dry. By late in the forecast period, troughing
sets up over the Great Lakes, resulting in northwest flow over the
Northern Plains. Again, any shortwave(s) embedded in this flow could
provide instances of precipitation, but predictability is very low
at this time in any one system.
...Rain/Snow Today...
The aforementioned surface low will continue tracking south and
east today, taking the broad area of light precipitation
occuring early this morning with it. However, cyclonic flow,
steep low level lapse rates, low level moisture, and a little
MUCAPE will foster pop up showers late this morning into the
early overnight hours. Temperatures should be warm enough to
keep the majority of precipitation as rain, with a little light
snow mixing in after dark. Gusty northerly winds combined with
high temperatures in the 40s will make for a a chilly day,
especially for those out trick or treating this evening.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
A low pressure system is bringing widespread stratus with flight
conditions trending towards MVFR for all of eastern ND and
northwest MN overnight and towards IFR Friday morning. Guidance
shows improving conditions back to MVFR during the afternoon and
eventually to VFR during the evening for most of the region,
though pockets of MVFR stratocumulus may linger in central ND
towards KDVL. Areas of light rain and possibly snow will rotate
around this system, with highly variable coverage (ptype
generally rain). Where this precipitation tracks visibilities
may drop into MVFR ranges, however coverage/duration is less
certain for most sites (30-40%). Highest chances are at KDVL
into the Friday morning hours.
Westerly winds are lingering at KDVL, but should eventually
shift to the north. Light and variable winds elsewhere shift to
the north and increase Friday (12-15kt) as the low pressure
system slides to the south and southeast and gradient increases.
Winds should diminish once again as the gradient weakens and
daytime mixing ends.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR
