nc discuss
Office: ILM
FXUS62 KILM 010915
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
415 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring drier conditions behind a cold front
today before approaching low pressure leads to increasing rain
chances tonight into Tuesday. A few stronger storms are
possible, especially near the coast. Dry high pressure will
return Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances will increase
again as we tackle another cold front and then an approaching
frontal system. Drying is expected into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*Hazards: Very Low risk for a damaging wind gust/tornado late
tonight near the coast
*Rain Chances: None today; High tonight
*Temps: Below normal today; above normal tonight
*Confidence: High today; Moderate to High tonight
Details: High pressure will build in from the north today behind a
departing cold front offshore. Light to occasionally moderate rain
will end by daybreak. Expect cool, dry weather today with a decent
N/NE breeze and a good bit of cloud coverage w/ temps staying below
normal, around 50 (inland) to around 55 (coast). The high will be
weakening in time as it gives way to an approaching upper trough
tonight which will spur low pressure development along the northern
Gulf Coast as well as off the FL/GA coast. A trough will then
develop northward from the aforementioned secondary low toward the
Carolina coast, possibly becoming a westward-moving warm front late
tonight as strong southerly winds try to shove it inland across SE
NC and NE SC. Expect increasing rainfall tonight as moisture/forcing
increase and this should strengthen the inland in-situ wedge of high
pressure which will help keep the front closer to the coast.
However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the frontal
placement so we'll have to keep a close eye on this boundary as it
could lead to a few strong to possibly severe storms near the coast
as warmer/moister air gets advected inland. There looks to be plenty
of low-level shear/helicity as well as deep layer shear to support a
very low (albeit non-zero) risk for damaging wind gusts and/or
tornado if sufficient instability can materialize. Climatology would
at least suggest very limited instability will occur due to winds
coming across the cooler shelf waters. Should at least see some
beneficial rainfall, generally ~0.25-0.5" with some locally higher
amounts up to ~1" possible. Lows tonight should be a bit above
normal, generally ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Passing low pressure will bring a surge of moisture as well as
enhanced lift leading to our first decent chance of rain in a while.
Rainfall amounts will increase Tuesday morning as the low passes, 1-
1.5" likely across the area, highest amounts for the SE NC coast. In
terms of instability we're not looking at much, most will be focused
at the immediate coast and over the water, but shear and SRH will be
very favorable. Depending on how the instability shakes out there
could be a small threat for an isolated spinner worst case scenario.
Due to the nature of flow around the low, subsidence and drier air
behind on the back side, rain chances should come to an end fairly
quickly once the low passes which for now looks like by Tuesday
night. High pressure will build in for Wednesday with lingering dry
conditions and little in the ways of difference in temperatures
outside of the coast, which will see warmer highs in the lower/mid
60s Tuesday and then +10 deg cooler Wednesday as the entire area
stays in the 50s. Lows will be near to just below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry air will remain predominant through Thursday with moisture
working its way back in late Thursday night/early Friday morning in
the return flow of the departing high. There's still some
uncertainty but it looks like a backdoor cold front will push
through around the same time, slightly colder conditions setting up
for Friday with lingering rainfall chances through the rest of the
period as we are impacted by nearby low pressure and another
possible frontal passage over the weekend. Drier conditions are
anticipated into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z/01 TAFs: High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z,
then moderate confidence. Dry high pressure will prevail today
with gusty conditions through early afternoon. MVFR cigs
possibly return around 00Z near the coastal terminals
(KILM/KCRE/KMYR) before spreading inland to KFLO/KLBT by around
06Z as some heavier rain quickly overspreads the area ahead of a
few low pressure systems to the south. A warm front near the
coast late could even bring a few thunderstorms to the coastal
terminals toward 12Z. IFR restrictions likely after 09Z,
possibly reaching LIFR by 12Z. LLWS also possible near the coast
late tonight but not mentioning just yet.
Extended Outlook...A storm system moving up from the Gulf will bring
flight restrictions down to at least IFR Tuesday due to low
clouds, heavier showers and possible storms (mainly near the
coast). Coastal terminals (ILM/CRE/MYR) may also have LLWS Tue.
VFR should return Tue eve and last through at least Thu before
another storm system will likely brings restrictions as early as
late Thu.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure
centered to the NW will extend southward into the area behind a
departing cold front this AM. The high will weaken with time,
especially tonight when low pressure develops to the south with a
trough extending northward through the local waters. This will allow
northerly winds to veer to the E and then SE, possibly even to the S
by the end of tonight. Winds/seas will be elevated but mainly stay
below Small Craft Advisory levels until late tonight.
Tuesday through Saturday...Passing coastal low pressure dragging a
coastal trough onshore will lead to worsening marine conditions
through Tuesday night, a Small Draft Advisory out for near 25 kt
gusts and +6 ft waves. The system will be past us with northerly
flow into Wednesday ~15-20 kts behind the cold front, building high
pressure improving conditions into Wednesday night. Winds will
increase into Friday with a backdoor cold front and then a low
probability for Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday with
another frontal passage. Seas will be 2-3 ft come Wednesday where
they'll remain until they start to increase ahead of the front into
Saturday, 3-5 ft currently forecast.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
Office: MHX
FXUS62 KMHX 011142
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
642 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is pushing across the area and high pressure will
briefly build in from the north today. A strong low pressure
system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High
pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through
midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region
late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- A cold front will move offshore by sunrise, continuing
scattered light showers across the area
- Cooler temps today with highs around 10 degrees below normal
A cold front is approaching ENC and light showers are ongoing across
much of the CWA. Winds have decoupled ahead of the front, and this
has allowed patchy fog to develop across central and southern zones.
Light rain will continue over the next few hours and dissipate from
west to east with the front expected to push offshore by sunrise.
Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s
to low 50s along the coast. Winds will be breezy out of the north
today and much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front
as high pressure builds in from the north, keeping highs about 15-20
degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Northwest zones will max
out in the upper 40s with the rest of the area in the low 50s. Cloud
cover will dissipate behind the front but will build back in later
this after/evening as a low to our south moves north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- Increasing rain chances as a low lifts towards the Carolinas
A broad upper trough will dig across the Mississippi River
Valley tonight and a deepening surface low off the southeast
coast will move north towards the Carolinas. PoPs will increase
from south to north after midnight as the low approaches. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible early tomorrow morning across
Onslow and Carteret Counties (15-25%), but chances will be
greater over the southern coastal waters (25-35%). Rainfall may
be moderate to heavy at times across these areas, especially
within thunderstorms. Lows will range from the upper 30s across
northwestern zones to mid 40s to low 50s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages
- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing
the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal
flooding
- High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
late in the week.
The aforementioned low will quickly lift along the Carolina
coast Tuesday morning and push out to sea by the
afternoon/early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected
with this system, with QPF ranging from 1.5" inland to 2"+
along the coast. Given that the much of the CWA remains in a
moderate drought, this rain is much needed, and these antecedent
conditions will lessen the flood threat. However, minor nuisance
flooding remains a possibility where higher rain rates occur.
There's potential for some supercells to develop, especially
along the coast and across the coastal waters where instability,
deep layer shear, and helicity will be greatest. The window for
severe activity could last from early Tuesday morning through
the afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado and/or waterspout.
Coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, will be closely
monitored for potential oceanside and soundside flooding impacts
due to stronger winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. A
High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Outer Banks from Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section
for more information.
PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast,
leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back
in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from
the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the
Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through
Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.
PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs
into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With
inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there's potential for
a brief window of a rain/snow mix.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM Monday...Light rain slowly pushing offshore as
cold front moves through the region, with drier northerly winds
ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we
have generally MVFR ceilings along OBX and the immediate Crystal
Coast with VFR for inland locales. Ceilings and visibilities
rapidly rise for areas currently in MVFR as dry air filters into
ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR
conditions between 11-13z.
This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near
20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to
deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure
system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR
from south to north.
Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure
system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds
back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR
conditions expected. Another system Friday can bring drops to
sub-VFR again.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- Small Craft conditions expected through this afternoon
- Gale Watch in effect for portions of the coastal waters for
Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system that will track
along the coast
- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into
Wednesday
Latest obs show NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds
will veer to the north over the next couple of hours as a cold
front passes the area and gusts will increase to 25-30 kt. Winds
will continue to veer to the NE by this afternoon and decrease
to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, will
build to 4-6 ft by early this afternoon, and subside to 3-5 ft
by this evening. SCAs are in effect for all waters save for the
inland rivers, but a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for
the Neuse River for the possibility of 25-30 kt gusts at the
mouth through this morning. Tonight, a low will move up the
southeast coast and winds will veer to the SE and increase to
15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by sunrise (highest gusts
expected south of Cape Hatteras). Seas will respond by building
back to 5-6 ft across this same area.
Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate Tuesday morning
as the low moves along the coast. Gales are expected across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds starting as
SEerly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt and becoming SWerly
by the afternoon and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts to 30-40
kt. Seas will respond by building to 7-13 ft by the afternoon.
Strong thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts will be
possible Tuesday morning, especially across the coastal waters
south of Cape Hatteras.
High pressure builds in Wednesday and conditions will improve
through the day. The next chance for SCA conditions will be
Saturday as another low is forecast to move up the coast.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 640 AM Monday...A strong low pressure system moving
through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and
seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2)
through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening's and early
Wednesday morning's high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for
localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp
around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue.
A High Surf Advisory has been issued Tuesday 10AM to 10 PM as
breaking waves of 6-10 ft could cause hazardous surf conditions
and localized beach erosion between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-
204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
150.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
154-156-158.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
AMZ152-154.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
FXUS62 KMHX 011144
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
644 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is pushing across the area and high pressure will
briefly build in from the north today. A strong low pressure
system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High
pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through
midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region
late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- A cold front will move offshore by sunrise, continuing
scattered light showers across the area
- Cooler temps today with highs around 10 degrees below normal
A cold front is approaching ENC and light showers are ongoing across
much of the CWA. Winds have decoupled ahead of the front, and this
has allowed patchy fog to develop across central and southern zones.
Light rain will continue over the next few hours and dissipate from
west to east with the front expected to push offshore by sunrise.
Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s
to low 50s along the coast. Winds will be breezy out of the north
today and much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front
as high pressure builds in from the north, keeping highs about 15-20
degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Northwest zones will max
out in the upper 40s with the rest of the area in the low 50s. Cloud
cover will dissipate behind the front but will build back in later
this after/evening as a low to our south moves north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- Increasing rain chances as a low lifts towards the Carolinas
A broad upper trough will dig across the Mississippi River
Valley tonight and a deepening surface low off the southeast
coast will move north towards the Carolinas. PoPs will increase
from south to north after midnight as the low approaches. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible early tomorrow morning across
Onslow and Carteret Counties (15-25%), but chances will be
greater over the southern coastal waters (25-35%). Rainfall may
be moderate to heavy at times across these areas, especially
within thunderstorms. Lows will range from the upper 30s across
northwestern zones to mid 40s to low 50s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages
- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing
the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal
flooding
- High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
- Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
late in the week.
The aforementioned low will quickly lift along the Carolina
coast Tuesday morning and push out to sea by the
afternoon/early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected
with this system, with QPF ranging from 1.5" inland to 2"+
along the coast. Given that the much of the CWA remains in a
moderate drought, this rain is much needed, and these antecedent
conditions will lessen the flood threat. However, minor nuisance
flooding remains a possibility where higher rain rates occur.
There's potential for some supercells to develop, especially
along the coast and across the coastal waters where instability,
deep layer shear, and helicity will be greatest. The window for
severe activity could last from early Tuesday morning through
the afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado and/or waterspout.
Coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, will be closely
monitored for potential oceanside and soundside flooding impacts
due to stronger winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. A
High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Outer Banks from Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section
for more information.
PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast,
leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back
in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from
the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the
Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through
Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.
PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs
into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With
inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there's potential for
a brief window of a rain/snow mix.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM Monday...Light rain slowly pushing offshore as
cold front moves through the region, with drier northerly winds
ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we
have generally MVFR ceilings along OBX and the immediate Crystal
Coast with VFR for inland locales. Ceilings and visibilities
rapidly rise for areas currently in MVFR as dry air filters into
ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR
conditions between 11-13z.
This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near
20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to
deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure
system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR
from south to north.
Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR conditions and low level wind shear
concerns likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to
lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area
Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected.
Another system Friday can bring drops to sub-VFR again.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- Small Craft conditions expected through this afternoon
- Gale Watch in effect for portions of the coastal waters for
Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system that will track
along the coast
- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into
Wednesday
Latest obs show NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds
will veer to the north over the next couple of hours as a cold
front passes the area and gusts will increase to 25-30 kt. Winds
will continue to veer to the NE by this afternoon and decrease
to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, will
build to 4-6 ft by early this afternoon, and subside to 3-5 ft
by this evening. SCAs are in effect for all waters save for the
inland rivers, but a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for
the Neuse River for the possibility of 25-30 kt gusts at the
mouth through this morning. Tonight, a low will move up the
southeast coast and winds will veer to the SE and increase to
15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by sunrise (highest gusts
expected south of Cape Hatteras). Seas will respond by building
back to 5-6 ft across this same area.
Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate Tuesday morning
as the low moves along the coast. Gales are expected across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds starting as
SEerly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt and becoming SWerly
by the afternoon and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts to 30-40
kt. Seas will respond by building to 7-13 ft by the afternoon.
Strong thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts will be
possible Tuesday morning, especially across the coastal waters
south of Cape Hatteras.
High pressure builds in Wednesday and conditions will improve
through the day. The next chance for SCA conditions will be
Saturday as another low is forecast to move up the coast.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 640 AM Monday...A strong low pressure system moving
through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and
seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2)
through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening's and early
Wednesday morning's high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for
localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp
around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue.
A High Surf Advisory has been issued Tuesday 10AM to 10 PM as
breaking waves of 6-10 ft could cause hazardous surf conditions
and localized beach erosion between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-
204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
150.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
154-156-158.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
AMZ152-154.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Office: RAH
FXUS62 KRAH 011145
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across central and eastern NC, then offshore,
this morning. Cold high pressure will migrate quickly across and
offshore the Middle Atlantic today and tonight, ahead of low
pressure that will develop and rapidly strengthen from the Southeast
to the Middle Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...
* Dry through the day, with rain chances returning late tonight.
* Below normal high temperatures, with near normal lows.
A cold front will continue to push through central NC overnight,
exiting the region by daybreak this morning. This will allow for
high pressure to pass north of the region through the Great Lakes
region and into the northeast US, setting up another wedge airmass
by afternoon/evening. At the same time, a trough and associated cold
front will start to approach from the west late tonight as a low
pressure system starts to form and moves up the southeast coast.
This will allow for a soaking rain to start spreading into the
region from the west shortly after midnight. The HREF 6 hour local
probability matched mean shows generally 0.15 to 0.75 inches of rain
between 1 and 7am for central NC, with the greater values to the
west. Widespread rain will continue into Tuesday.
High temperatures should be about 10 to 15 degrees below normal this
afternoon. This will equate to highs in the mid 40s north to around
to slightly above 50 in the south. Overnight lows will dip to near
freezing in the north to low 40s in the south. Temperatures look to
be above freezing when and where rain will fall late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Monday...
* A cold, soaking rain early Tue will yield to west to east drying
and clearing during the afternoon and especially Tue night
A shortwave trough comprised of a couple of perturbations now
stretching across the Four Corners and Southwest will have reached
the OH to lwr MS Valleys by 12Z Tue and lift across and offshore the
Middle Atlantic and Carolinas late Tue-Tue night. A strong low
through mid-level WAA regime, and plume of anomalous moisture
characterized by PWs around 200% of normal, will precede the trough
and be swept across and offshore the Carolinas through early Tue
afternoon.
At the surface, the center of a 1035 mb, Arctic high now centered
over IA will migrate quickly ewd and reach Nova Scotia by 12Z Tue,
while steadily weakening to near 1025 mb. A narrow, in-situ cold
damming ridge will extend swwd from the transitory and weakening
high and across the favored cold air damming region across the
Carolinas and neighboring VA and GA on Tue, while coastal low
pressure will rapidly deepen from around 1010 mb along the coast of
the Carolinas Tue morning to around 980 mb off the Nova Scotia coast
Wed morning. Through the same time, a weaker high than the first,
centered around 1025 mb over the srn Plains Tue morning, will
migrate ewd and into the OH and TN Valleys, with associated cold and
dry air advection that will spread east of the Appalachians and
across cntl NC Tue afternoon and night.
The transitory and weakening nature of the Arctic high is not
favorable for wintry precipitation in cntl NC, where forecast
partial thickness and surface wet bulb freezing values, and the top-
down approach from point soundings, all indeed suggest just a cold
rain. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to range from around
0.75" over the nw Piedmont to around 1.5" in the Coastal Plain, the
latter where where low-level Fgen and weak elevated instability
nearest the deepening cyclone will probably yield a swath of highest
totals.
It will be a cold and raw morning amid widespread rain and peak cold
air damming, when temperatures will be in the mid/upr 30s over the
nw Piedmont to lwr 40s in the Coastal Plain. However, the departure
of the rain shield, and downslope flow and CAA in the stable CAD
layer, will likely yield east to west erosion of the CAD airmass
behind the coastal low (a CAD erosion scenario) during the afternoon
and evening, when temperatures will moderate through the 40s, to
perhaps lwr 50s over the srn/wrn Piedmont. A clear and colder Tue
night will follow, with temperatures mostly in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Monday...
Downstream of a positive tilt trough that will extend from Four
Corners and Southwest, swwd through a cyclone over the sern N.
Pacific, fast/quasi-zobnal flow will prevail across the Southeast
and Carolinas. To what degree and how quickly shortwave energy from
that positive tilt trough ejects ewd will have ramifications on
downstream vertical motion and contribution to cyclogenesis near the
coast of the Carolinas Fri-Sat. While forecast confidence is below
average in that regard, the trend in model guidance has been toward
generally more suppressed and drier solutions, driven mostly by a
plume of mid-level WAA and Fgen, and such that precipitation
centered around Fri-Fri night will very likely be much lighter than
this Tuesday's system.
At the surface, high pressure will weaken while migrating across and
offshore the Southeast Wed-Thu, ahead of a dry cold front that will
lead an Arctic high across the Middle Atlantic and into the
Carolinas Thu night-early Fri, then quickly offshore by Fri night. A
wavy frontal zone draped from the nrn Gulf to just offshore the
Southeast coast may allow for at least a couple of episodes of, as
it appears at this time, weak cyclogenesis Fri-Sat.
The fast and progressive nature of the pattern described above will
favor a continuation of transitory and weakening Arctic highs as
they migrate across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic, then
offshore, which is not favorable for more than nuisance wintry
precipitation mostly at onset in cntl NC. Indeed, the aforementioned
mid-level WAA regime would support adequate lift when partial
thicknesses are initially supportive of snow if the precipitation
were to arrive early in the day Fri, but with subsequent warming
that would favor a relatively quick transition to rain. While there
could also be an intervening, short period of light freezing rain
over the nw Piedmont before surface temperatures rise above
freezing, that too would be short-lived, self-limiting in the
absence of a more favorably located and anchored surface high, and
low impact.
Forecast confidence is even lower for Sun, but with a general signal
for drier and less chilly conditions behind whatever transpires
from the mostly light precipitation Fri-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...
Last night's cold front has moved out of the region, leaving VFR
conditions everywhere in the CWA. VFR conditions will prevail
through the day today. Periods of gusty winds look possible this
morning through early afternoon. It appears that FAY/RWI the best
chance of gusting up to 20-22 kts, with INT/GSO/RDU having the
potential for gusts in the teens. MVFR ceilings and light rain look
to start moving into central NC around 06Z from the west and south,
spreading over the region by 08Z. Ceilings look like they could drop
quickly, with LIFR ceilings potentially covering the CWA by 12Z.
Outlook: Widespread rain will continue through Tuesday evening,
bringing sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. VFR returns Wed and Thu
under high pressure. Another late-week system may bring rain/showers
late Fri-Sat.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...LH/AK
