nc discuss
Office: ILM
FXUS62 KILM 281127
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
727 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and rain will accompany a cold front moving off the coast
this morning. High pressure will bring dry and cool weather
tonight through Friday. A warming trend is expected this weekend
as the high moves offshore. The next chance of rain will
accompany a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface cold front continues to slide southeastward and
should be crossing the beaches no later than 6 AM. Cooler air
undercutting the moist and slightly unstable airmass aloft will
help sustain showers and elevated coastal thunderstorms through
the morning hours. Heavy rainfall could create an isolated
flooding threat, but this potential appears to be limited to
southeastern North Carolina between now and about 8 AM.
Isentropic upglide will end in the lower levels by mid morning
within the deepening cold advection behind the front, but may
linger way up on the 310K theta surface (near 600 mb or 12kft)
which will maintain clouds and areas of light rain going through
early to mid afternoon. Eventually the lift runs out even here
with dry weather expected.
The biggest forecast dilemma today concerns temperatures.
There's at least a moderate potential the sun will come out
during the mid afternoon across the Pee Dee region with
temperatures possibly rising 6-8 degrees off their mid morning
lows. Along the coast the potential for sunshine and any
substantial rise in temperature is less. My forecast highs range
from the lower 60s across the Pee Dee region to 58-60 along the
coast, however confidence in low.
There is high confidence skies will become clear tonight after
the upper trough moves offshore and deep offshore flow is
established. High pressure will move eastward across the Deep
South, making it as far east as Alabama by sunrise Friday.
Enough of a pressure gradient should remain to keep winds from
going calm across the eastern Carolinas and forecast lows are
within a few degrees of 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Broad surface high pressure over the Deep South moves to the ESE and
offshore through this period. Chamber of commerce weather on the
way, with airmass modification kicking off. Skies should be mostly
cloudless, sans a few cirrus clouds here and there. Highs Friday in
the upper 60 near 70. Lows Friday night in the mid-to-upper 40s
inland, near 50 at the coast.
Surface winds out of the southwest bring in much warmer air
Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s inland, lower 70s at the coast.
Lows Saturday night in the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Airmass modification continues with the high pressure offshore. Dry
forecast continues, with widespread highs in the low-to-mid 80s
expected Sunday through Tuesday. Lows each night in the low-to-mid
60s.
Clouds increase Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system, which is
due to move through sometime Wednesday. Rain chances look to return
Tuesday night through Wednesday, but we're keeping the chances
rather modest for now. This front looks to knock back temperatures
down a bit, but still above normal for early April.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The surface cold front is offshore and cool northerly winds are now
blowing across the eastern Carolinas. Moisture overrunning the front
aloft will maintain multilayered clouds and light to moderate rain,
lasting through at least early afternoon along the coast. The
precipitating cloud base will gradually rise to 5000 feet over the
next several hours but broken low clouds in the shallow cool air
below will form IFR ceilings in the 500-800 foot AGL range. These
cloud ceilings should prevail through 16-18 UTC inland, and 19-21
UTC along the coast before breaking up and/or rising to MVFR. Skies
should clear out totally tonight after the upper level trough zips
by a few hours after sunset.
Extended Outlook...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A cold front is slipping southeastward across
the coastal plain and should cross the beaches around 6 AM,
making it 20 miles offshore no later than 8-10 AM this morning.
Light southeasterly winds will shift to the north behind the
front and then increase to 15-25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect through tonight for these winds plus seas
which may reach 6 feet near Frying Pan Shoals this afternoon.
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms should persist
through the remainder of the morning hours. Heavy rain could
reduce visibility below 2 miles at times. Precipitation rates
should diminish by noon, with the last of the showers ending
during the mid afternoon.
Friday through Monday...Small Craft Advisory is due to expire at 4
AM EDT Friday morning. From there, northwesterly winds at 10-15kts
back to the west by Friday afternoon, and then to the southwest by
Friday night. Winds from that point will remain locked in through
Monday. Seas mostly stick to 2-4ft.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday
for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/IGB
Office: MHX
FXUS62 KMHX 281453
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1053 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will move along the Crystal Coast today, followed
quickly by a cold front passage. High pressure then builds in
from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage
likely early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...
**Coastal low to impact ENC with heavy rain, gusty winds, and
coastal impacts today**
Based on satellite, radar, and observations, it appears that
low pressure has developed just southeast of Wilmington. The
development and deepening of the low has been slower than
anticipated, and so far, winds have been slower to respond.
However, we still expect low pressure to deepen through the day
as it pulls away from the coast. With the slower deepening
noted, the stronger winds will be delayed, and it's possible
that the strongest winds will be focused a little further east.
I still expect a period of gusty 30-40 mph winds along the
coast, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible. However, given all
of the above, and with ensemble guidance trended lower with
higher winds, I have opted to adjust winds down some through the
remainder of the event.
Additionally, it appears that the slower-to-deepen low, plus
some convective effects, have led to lower rainfall amounts thus
far, especially inland of the coast. With good dynamics and
lift at play, and with a continued stream of moisture advecting
into the area, we'll continue to see periods of moderate
rainfall rates, and possibly some minor flooding issues.
However, the threat of flash flooding appears to be decreasing.
For now, we'll keep the Flood Watch going so as not to confuse
any messaging, as there will still be some rises on creeks and
rivers, as well as ponding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.
But, we may be able to cancel the Flood Watch early if recent
trends hold.
Instability continues to decrease, but there will be enough for
a risk of a few lightning strikes for another few hours. Given
the decreasing instability, the risk of severe weather looks to
remain very low through the remainder of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
Coastal low will quickly exit off to the north and east
Thursday night.
Coastal low will be located just offshore near Cape Hatteras
and will be pushing further north and east while strengthening
as the evening progresses. Any leftover rainfall associated with
this low will finally end from west to east through Thursday
night thus ending our heavy rainfall threat with just the
potential for up to an additional 0.1" inches of rain to fall
overnight Thursday, Winds will still remain elevated overall
across ENC with NW'rly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across our
inland zones and 30-45 mph across the coast and OBX overnight as
the gradient tightens between the deepening low and encroaching
high.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...High pressure builds in from the south on
Friday and remains in place through the weekend resulting in
benign weather across ENC. Next potential frontal boundary then
impacts the area early to mid week next week.
Friday through Sunday... Upper level trough will be to the north and
east of the Carolinas to start the period and continue to push
further away while zonal flow sets up aloft on Fri and Sat
before broad upper ridging extends over ENC on Sun. At the
surface low pressure system that had impacted the region on
Thurs will continue to move further away while a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the south and west and extends over the
Carolinas to start our weekend. This will bring a return to our
fair weather on Fri with mo clear skies and temps getting into
the mid to upper 60s inland and low 60s across the OBX.
Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level shortwave
riding along this flow to our north. At the surface associated
frontal boundary will be located to the north with a weak low riding
E'wards along the front while surface ridging continues to extend
N'wards into the Carolinas. While we expect to remain precip free on
Sat some additional cloud cover may begin to sneak into our
northern zones Sat afternoon and evening, though with breezy
SW'rly surface winds and increasing low level thicknesses
expecting a rather pleasant day overall with high temps getting
into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, while lows
remain rather warm Sat night only getting down into the mid
50s. As we step into Sunday upper ridging briefly builds
overhead as a positively tilted upper trough begins to dig into
the western CONUS. At the surface, ridging begins to slide off
to the east while pesky surface front to our north dips slightly
S'wards nearing the CWA Sun evening with yet another weak
surface low riding E'wards along the boundary, this will allow
additional cloud cover to build further south across the area,
though we expect to generally remain precip free Sun as well.
Highs get into the low 80s inland and near 70 across the OBX.
Monday through midweek next week... Upper level trough quickly
pushes E'wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by midweek. Associated
low and cold front also quickly march E'wards on Mon bringing our
next best threat for precip on Tue. Front quickly pushes offshore by
Wed with fair weather forecast to return from Wed onwards. Temps
generally remain above avg on Mon and Tue with near avg temps
forecast behind the frontal passage on Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Thursday/...
As of 700 AM Thursday...Widespread IFR conditions as thunderstorms
have moved past the TAF sites towards the coast. A line of
widespread showers with slight chances of thunder are moving
into the CWA. Low clouds persist between these two features, and
will continue into the evening, where conditions will quickly
switch from MVFR/IFR to VFR as the coastal low lifts to the
northeast. Gusty northerly winds are in store for the evening
today, and LLWS concerns exist, particularly east of hwy 17, for
much of the day today. Foggy conditions continue for NOBX, and
will likely remain until incoming rain scours it out through the
afternoon.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions
through much of the period as high pressure ridging builds in
from the south. We will see some gusty W to SW'rly winds each
afternoon on Fri and Sat with gusts above 20 kts possible each
day, as the pressure gradient takes a few days to relax behind
a departing low pressure system. Next potential threat for some
sub-VFR ceilings or vis look to be Mon night into Tues with the
approach of our next frontal boundary.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...
Low pressure is slowly deepening off the coast of NC at this
time, and appears to be centered SE of Wilmington. The low has
been slower to deepen than forecast, and winds have been slower
to increase. We still expect a period of gale-force winds as the
low eventually deepens, but it appears the magnitude of winds
may not be quite as high as originally forecast. With this
forecast update, I've lowered winds some, but the spirit of the
forecast still holds, so no changes were made to the ongoing
marine headlines. If the lower wind trend holds, some of the
headlines will be able to be cancelled earlier than forecast,
but we'll hold off to see how the low evolves over the next few
hours.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Marine conditions will rapidly
deteriorate through today as a coastal low tracks NE'wards and
deepens Thu afternoon and evening. Winds will become N-NW'rly
behind the departing coastal low and cold front and increasing
rapidly with widespread 20-30 kt winds with 25-40 kt gusts found
across the inland sounds and rivers Thu afternoon and evening
with 25-35 kt winds with 40-45 kt gusts found across our coastal
waters. Dangerous marine conditions will persist through
Thursday night.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330AM Thursday... Low pressure system that had impacted
our waters on Thursday will quickly move further off to the
north and east on Friday, though hazardous marine conditions
will continue to persist into the weekend as the pressure
gradient remains tight over the area. Current forecast suggests
widespread 15-25 kt W'rly winds with gusts ranging from 25-25
kts across all waters Fri morning. This will keep a mix of SCA
and Gale headlines up across just about all of our waters save
some of the inland rivers where SCA headlines may have just
ended. Conditions will gradually ease through the morning on Fri
as the low pushes further away and ridging builds overhead
allowing the gradient to relax with W'rly winds easing down to
10-20 kts by Fri evening with gusts in excess of 25 kts.
Headlines then quickly drop from W to E Sat into Sun as winds
ease further with winds becoming SW'rly and decreasing down to
5-15 kts by Sun and generally remain around these speeds
through early next week. Seas start out around 6-9 ft on Fri
but then quickly lower with the lighter winds on Sat down to 4-7
ft with seas forecast to fall to 2-5 ft by Sun.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...
Widespread 0.50"-1.50" of rain has been observed thus far across
Eastern NC, with radar estimating amounts as high as 2". The
heaviest rainfall has been focused across the southwestern half
of ENC, with lighter amounts up towards the Albemarle Sound and
NRN OBX vicinity. These amounts have, thus far, been lower than
forecast. The heaviest rain is beginning to shift offshore, with
periods of light to moderate rain continuing into the late
afternoon hours. With rainfall rates expected to decrease, it
appears the risk of flash flooding is decreasing. However, we'll
plan to keep the Flood Watch going for now as rivers and creeks
will continue to respond, and there may be some lingering
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1030 AM Wednesday...
Winds have been slower to develop this morning, but are still
expected to increase by this afternoon as low pressure deepens
offshore. The one note is that the low has been slower to deepen
than originally anticipated, and it's possible the magnitude of
winds will end up a bit lower. The overall spirit of the
forecast hasn't changed, though, and for now we still anticipate
minor coastal flooding impacts for soundside locations of
Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.
As the low pulls away, another round of large, breaking waves
and ocean overwash will impact oceanside areas from Ocracoke
north through the Northern Outer Banks. Though seas are quite a
bit lower this morning, generally around 5-6 ft across the
Northern Outer Banks and down towards Ocracoke., seas will
rapidly increase this afternoon with long period 5-9 ft seas
forecast. As a result have kept the high surf advisory in effect
through Friday morning. After Friday morning aforementioned low
pressure will quickly pull away from the area resulting in seas
lowering down to 4-6 ft and thus ending the high surf threat.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ203-205.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Friday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Friday for
AMZ150.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Friday for
AMZ152-154.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Office: RAH
FXUS62 KRAH 281609
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1209 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast
and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly
strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure
moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV
and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger
cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across
the area on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...
Just a quick update to mention the Flood Watch has been
cancelled for the rest of central NC. Only some lingering light
rain is expected across eastern areas this afternoon.
As of 1100 AM Thursday...
Periods of heavy showers and storms moved across central NC
overnight, but they didn't last long enough and it has been dry
enough lately that we avoided any significant flash flooding across
the area. Rainfall totals since yesterday have ranged from around a
half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1 to 2
inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as 2 to
3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to
Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar
estimates. The only remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on
the Tar, Neuse and Haw rivers which are in minor flood or forecast
to reach minor flood stage over the next couple of days.
An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary are now
located just off the coast of the Carolinas this morning. Central NC
is sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that is
just starting to enter the Triad, separating dew points in the 20s
and 30s from upper-40s to lower-50s. This front will slowly push
east across central NC through this evening. With the low deepening
but moving east and away from the region, and drier air starting to
filter in (PW values down to 0.5-1" west of the Coastal Plain), the
heaviest rain has shifted to our east near the coast. Only some
light stratiform rain and drizzle remains, and this has already
completely exited the Triad, will exit the Triangle and Sandhills
between about 18z-21z this afternoon, and will exit the Coastal
Plain between about 21z-00z. No more thunder is expected as all the
MUCAPE has shifted near the coast. So at most another one to two
tenths of an inch will fall, and cancelled the Flood Watch for the
NE Piedmont and Sandhills.
As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon and
early evening, skies will clear from west to east. However, mostly
cloudy to overcast skies will likely linger for much of the day
outside of the western Piedmont. When combined with northerly winds
gusting up to 15-25 mph between the deepening low off the coast and
high pressure building in from the lower MS Valley, it will be a
chilly day. High temperatures will range from lower-50s in the far
NE (where skies won't clear until this evening) to lower-60s in the
far west which could be mostly sunny for a good part of the
afternoon. This is anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Some
light NW winds will last into the overnight hours, preventing ideal
radiational cooling despite clear skies, but the CAA will still help
lows drop into the mid-to-upper-30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...
* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday
* Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine
The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and
today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with
a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at
500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A
dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25
to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low
pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on
Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the
northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with
northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35
mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected
across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the
lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to
even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point
recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the
afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible
elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over
the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the
threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern
Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the
Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.
As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of
upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic
resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...
* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a
brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic
and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow
extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high
pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift
offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the
Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing
frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and
drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday
night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal
position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine
and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range
in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will
increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially
Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA
border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on
Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to
15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.
Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more
amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half
of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend
will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the
Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday
with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the
southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid-
Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.
On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern
VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front
should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing
for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the
precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there's a
small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise,
expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will
mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the
mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.
As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday,
a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the
Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by
Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early
Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before
surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper
trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still
remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the
greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at
least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of
stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection
which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of
peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower
80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower
70s. -Blaes
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 AM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR from
west to east through the afternoon. VFR expected everywhere by 00Z
Fri. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with some brief drops to
MVFR possible, mainly at KRWI and KFAY with rain. Rain/showers
impacting KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI should slowly move eastward this
morning/early aft. The rain should move out of central NC by 00Z
Fri. Northerly winds should become more nwly this aft/eve. There
will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range through early
aft, with gusts abating around sunset and winds gradually decreasing
to around 5 kts late tonight. -KC
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds
of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on
Sat. -Danco
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danco/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Danco/KCP