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Office: ILM

FXUS62 KILM 192359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
659 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

A warm front will move north of the area this evening. Bermuda
High pressure will build from the east and bring temperatures
well above normal this week with possible record warmth
Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will likely stall to our
north on Friday. The Bermuda High will again expand over the
region for the weekend. A cold front will approach from the
northwest late Sunday night. The front may end up stalling in
the area on Monday.


As of 3 PM Monday...It's been easy to find the warm front
today, outlined by a 20-degree difference in temperature and an
almost 180- degree difference in wind direction. The front
pushed onshore across SE North Carolina where Wilmington reached
75 degrees before noon, but temperatures have so far stayed in
the 50s in Florence, Darlington and Lumberton. A persistent
stream of clouds and light showers linked to moisture advecting
in from the Gulf Stream off the South Carolina coast has
produced waves of light showers across Myrtle Beach and up
through Whiteville and Elizabethtown this afternoon. This rain
should weaken with time as it slips into the Cape Fear area
early this evening.

The high-res models have performed quite well with the frontal
position today. The NAM, RUC, and HRRR correctly depicted cool
inland temperatures and northerly wind directions, while the GFS and
ECMWF were rather clueless. All models show shallow low clouds
developing across the entire area tonight as tropical moisture
continues to advect overhead. Stratus clouds may settle down to the
surface becoming fog overnight, perhaps even dense at times.
Although no dense fog advisory will be issued yet, we'll highlight
the potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Overall depth of the
stratus may be a little too shallow for drizzle.

The sun should burn through the clouds and fog by late Tuesday
morning, jumping the warm frontal position well inland. As the
nearly tropical airmass, now down at the surface, is warmed by the
sun look for Tuesday's highs to approach 80 degrees inland. The
beaches may do good to touch 70 degrees for highs with a relatively
cool southerly wind across the ocean. Areas of sea fog lingering
offshore could reach the beaches at times Tuesday afternoon but
should dissipate very quickly after crossing inland.


As of 3 PM Monday...Short term to be characterized by
unseasonable warmth. Temperature deviations from climatology
will be about 20 degrees by both day and night making lows
warmer than seasonable highs. As for Wednesdays highs in the
upper 70s coast low 80s inland could be poised to break some
records depending on ocean influence. Record highs for 2/21:

ILM: 78 from 2014.
FLO: 81 from 1997.
CRE: 76 from 1953.

The former appear to be in trouble while CRE will be dealing with
SSE onshore flow of the marine layer. Speaking of the marine layer,
models are still showing areas of sea fog through a good part of the
period. SREF VSBY<1nm probs maxing out over SC areas and have for a
while now and this seems plausible. This moisture will occasionally
affect areas along the Grand Strand and also make for some
temperature forecast complications.


As of 3 PM Monday...Continues to look like a period of extended
warmth with potential for record breaking temperatures this week.
Bermuda High and 5h western Atlantic ridge team up to bring an
extended period of warm southerly flow and mid-level subsidence. GFS
continues to slowly back away from bringing a backdoor cold front
into the area Thu night and Fri. Meanwhile the Canadian, ECMWF, and
WPC all have the front stalling out around the NC/VA border. Given
the GFS is trending in this direction and mid-level ridging tends to
win out went ahead and removed any hint of a front moving into the
area Thu night and Fri. Next shot at rainfall looks to be Sun night
as cold front moves in from the northwest. Front lacks a strong cold
push and the ECMWF stalls it in the region while the GFS passes it
cleanly. Looking at the predicted upper pattern would think the
front stalled in the area is probably more likely and for now will
carry the Sun night chance pop through Mon. The dynamics associated
with the front pass northwest of the area and forcing Sun night
would be limited, curtailing rainfall amounts. Might have a better
shot on Mon if the front ends up stalled and shortwave activity can
get involved, but have low confidence for the start of next week at
this point.

Partial thickness and 850 temps through the end of the week suggest
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas not along the immediate
coast. Southeast to south flow will lead to a strong sea breeze that
will become a modified resultant as the winds veer to south-
southwest late in the period. Onshore flow and water temps in the
mid to upper 50s will keep highs at the beaches in the mid to upper
60s at best. Front moving into the area Sun night/Mon will drop
temps a little. Even so most areas are likely to end up close to 10
degrees above climo. Lows will be even warmer with potential for
lows 25 degrees or more above climo.


As of 00Z...Currently VFR inland terminals and MVFR with patchy
light showers coastal terminals. KMYR has had tempo bouts of
300-400 foot cigs through the afternoon until TAF issuance time.
Since these 300-400 foot cigs are very patchy, will monitor
KMYR/KCRE and amend as necessary.

Otherwise showers will continue at the coastal terminals overnight
but become more isolated. Winds will be very light overnight all
terminals, thus fog is expected to develop, but confidence of
onset time is low. Cloud cover will help prevent any real dense
fog through 06Z. After 06Z IFR conditions are more likely to
develop at all terminals and persist through 14-15Z, with a
possibility of LIFR. Have held off on LIFR in TAFs due to
overcast cloud cover, and uncertainty of timing.

Fog should lift to MVFR by mid morning with VFR by noon. Winds
will be southeast to south 5-10 kt.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Morning IFR/BR possible Tuesday-Thu. Sea
fog possible through Thu but confidence is low.


As of 3 PM Monday...A warm front moved across the coastal
waters this morning and has pushed inland across the Cape Fear
area. Variable winds remain along the Grand Strand coastline
with the front still stalled 5-10 miles out, and we don't really
anticipate seeing solid southeasterly winds develop along the
Grand Strand beaches until late tonight when the front finally
jumps onshore. In terms of model guidance preferences, the NAM
model has been far outperforming the GFS with wind directions

Mainly southeasterly winds should become southerly on Tuesday around
10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet should change little through Tuesday. As
tropical moisture continues to move across the cold nearshore
waters, the potential for areas of sea fog will remain in the
forecast through tonight and Tuesday. The limiting factor with sea
fog may turn out to be the overwhelming warmth of the incoming
airmass, perhaps not allowing the cold water to successfully cool
air down to its dewpoint. No dense fog advisory will be issued at
this time, although some potential does remain.

As of 3 PM Monday...A quiet and unchanging set of conditions
through the period. High pressure off the coast to bring a
southerly wind of just 10kt with a few occasional higher gusts.
Seas will average right around 3 ft.

As of 3 PM Monday...Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow
through the period. Weak backdoor front will try to drop in from
the north Thu night into Fri but appears the boundary will
stall out near the NC/VA border. Gradient will be on the weak
side with winds 5 to 10 kt Thu and Fri. High strengthens a bit
for the weekend with gradient becoming a little more defined as
inland areas warm up. Southwest flow on Sat will be closer to 10
to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Thu and Fri build to 3 to 4 ft Sat as
winds become southwest and increase in speed.






Office: MHX FXUS62 KMHX 192356 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 656 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue off the coast through mid week and produce a very warm southerly flow across the region. A weakening cold front will move into the area late week then dissipate or lift north next weekend. Another front will move through the area late this weekend or early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 635 PM Mon...Scattered showers continue over the coastal plain and HWY 17 corridor, and are slowly pushing east. Have chance PoPs this evening for this area, with PoPs decreasing to slight chance tonight due to showers becoming more widely scattered. Temperatures are currently still in the upper 60s to low 70s near the coast, while further inland, where temps did not warm as much due to cloud cover, it is mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s. Not much of a dip in temps is expected tonight, with persistent southerly flow and widespread low cloud cover. Lows will be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s across Eastern NC. As low level moisture continues to be pumped into the region tonight, widespread fog is expected to develop. The fog may reach all the way to the coast, and will become thick in the early morning hours. Visibilities below 1 mile are likely and 1/4-1/2 mile visibilities are possible too especially over the coastal plain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 215 pm Mon...Ridging at the surface and aloft continues from the western Atlantic on Tuesday. There could be an isolated shower at times Tuesday, but with the mid levels very dry, will leave out mention of shower. Thick low level clouds may inhibit surface heating for the first part of the morning inland, but these locations should clear out soon after, and warm into the upper 70s to near 80. Closer to the coast, ocean influence will keep highs in the low to mid 70s, and across the Outer Banks, upper 60s are expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 am Mon...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be the dominant feature through late week, supporting temperatures well above normal. A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the west mid to late week, possibly moving through the region late week. Another front is progged to push through the area late this weekend into early next week. See Climate section below for temp records. Tuesday night through Wednesday...The high will cont off the coast through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast. Mainly dry Tue night thru Wed Night with area in warm sector with little to no forcing, though an isolated shower will be possible along the coast. Very mild Wed with highs in the mid 70s/lower 80s. Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly upper 60s to low 70s. Areas of low clouds and fog will be possible in the late night/early morning hours. Thursday through Monday...A weak cold front is forecast to push southward into the area Thu afternoon and Thu night, then wash out or lift back to the north Friday. Isolated showers possible Thu through Sat, and kept small pops, with front over region but moisture and forcing look weak with little in the way of rainfall expected. At this time best chance looks like late Thu into Fri, mainly across the northern forecast area. Highs Thu will again reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions. Bit cooler Fri...however hgts/thicknesses remain high so mild temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to lower/mid 60s along the coast. High pressure offshore strengthens over the area Sat and Sun. Increasing heights/thicknesses and low level SW flow Sat and Sun, support highs upper 60s along the coast, and mid/upper 70s inland. The next front approaches the area Sunday, likely moving through Sun night into early Mon. The GFS is much more progressive, while the EC is slower and looks to stall it off the coast early next week. Scattered showers possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tuesday Evening/... As of 645 PM Mon...VFR conditions are present away from a north-south band of light rain currently over the coastal plain, including KISO and KOAJ. MVFR ceilings are present in this band of showers. Widespread MVFR ceilings should spread into the airspace this evening, and then IFR ceilings are expected after midnight. Widespread fog will also develop after midnight, and will become dense towards daybreak. LIFR conditions are likely for both ceilings and visibilities by daybreak across Eastern NC, and will approach airport minimums. Conditions will begin to improve by mid morning with MVFR conditions returning. Later, VFR conditions will come back to the airspace from the early afternoon onward. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 230 AM Mon...Forecast soundings and guidance support low ceilings and areas of fog developing each night/early morning, with widespread sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tue/ As of 215 pm Mon...Southerly flow will continue through the short term with high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic. Winds will average 5-15 knots across the zones with seas averaging 2-4 feet. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 230 AM Mon...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be the dominant feature through most of the period. A weak cold front is forecast to push south into the area late Thursday and Thursday night, before washing out or lifting back to the north Friday. S/SW winds 5-15 kt expected Tue night through Thu, with seas 2-4 ft. A brief period of northerly winds likely Thu night into Friday, before returning to S/SW. && .CLIMATE... Temps could approach records this week. Record High Temps 2/20 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 71/1994 Greenville 81/1991 Jacksonville 82/1991 Kinston 81/1991 Morehead City 73/1994 New Bern 81/1991 Record High Temps 2/21 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 75/1989 Greenville 80/1922 Jacksonville 78/2011 Kinston 79/2011 Morehead City 71/1971 New Bern 79/2011 Record High Temps 2/22 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 76/1971 Greenville 80/2003 Jacksonville 77/2003 Kinston 78/2003 Morehead City 72/1971 New Bern 80/1980 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...HSA/SGK LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/SGK MARINE...CQD/HSA CLIMATE...MHX
Office: RAH FXUS62 KRAH 192344 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure over the region will keep a warm front over the SE Coastal Plain tonight. Finally, the front will surge north of the area Tuesday, bringing much warmer temperatures for the rest of the week. Record warm weather is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 PM Monday... ...Areas of dense fog likely overnight... In situ cold air damming air mass over the bulk of the Piedmont and northern coastal plain early this evening. 22Z meso-analysis depicts a coastal front/pseudo warm front over our far southeast counties. this sf feature expected to waver through late this evening then lift lowly northwestward overnight. The warmer air associated with this boundary flowing over the relatively cool air at the surface will cause fog and/or low clouds to develop with the potential for dense fog, especially in vicinity of highway 64 and along the I- 40/85 corridor. if the fog appears it will become thick, a dense fog advisory will be necessary. Temperatures will hold steady this evening then slowly rise overnight, especially along and east of highway 1. Locations along and east of I-95 between Fayetteville and Wilson will likely be at or slightly warmer than 60 degrees by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 353 PM Monday... ...Areas of dense fog early... The fog will likely be dense and extensive through mid-morning Tuesday. Finally, the WAA aloft will be allowed to gradually mix down and scour out the stratus/fog during the late morning and afternoon. Also aiding the process will be the increasing heights aloft with the expanding upper ridge. This will lead to sinking and mixing down of drier air from aloft. Highs should be tempered with readings slow to warm in the Piedmont, but earlier clearing in the south will aid warming there. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s expected, with the cooler damp NAM guidance with the slower clearing preferred guidance in the Piedmont Damming Region Tuesday. Low stratus again should be a problem in the Piedmont Tuesday night. Unseasonably moist PW's expand northward over the region with dew points expected to be in the 50s and lower 60s (SE). If the winds become calm again, then fog may again become an issue or hazard. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s (see record high minimums listed below). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 213 PM Monday... Unseasonable, perhaps record warmth will be the main weather story Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a 595 ridge off the southeast coast and warm southerly flow on the western side of that ridge. Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE both days, along with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The next cold front (that's currently extending from the Great Lakes region southwest to the south central Plains) will slowly drop south into and across NC Thursday evening through Thursday night. It's possible that some light rain may begin north of the I-85 corridor as early as late afternoon Thursday (which would hold temps there a bit lower than currently forecast), but it appears that the best chance for rain assoc with the fropa and subsequent CAD behind it, will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. After a cloudy damp start to Friday with the CAD in place, the boundary will attempt to lift back north by late-day with southerly flow and warming returning in it's wake. Temps Friday will be dependent on the timing of the CAD erosion and clouds breaking up and the southerly flow returning. However, right now it looks like locations near the SC border will have the best chance of seeing temps returning to lower 70s, while warming farther north will be delayed, holding in the lower to mid 60s. Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with our area between the sfc high centered to our east and the next cold front moving across the OH and MS valleys. Warm southerly flow between the two and sunshine will help temps climb into the 70s. Then on Sunday the front is expected to cross the region, bringing a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm to our area, and subsequent cooling trend in the wake of the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: LIFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS will become LIFR tonight through 15z/Tuesday. These conditions will only slowly improve Tuesday with light winds. Expect MVFR CIGS at nearly all sites by 18z to 21z, then possibly lowering again toward sunset. Outlook Tuesday night through Friday: Generally VFR conditions with high pressure expected, with the exception of IFR to LIFR conditions with late night to mid-morning fog/stratus. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...RAH