nc discuss
Office: ILM
FXUS62 KILM 120015
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
815 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
continue through this weekend and into next week with little
change in the overall weather pattern.
&&
.UPDATE...
Main focus of convection holding to the south, but a few storms
made it into southern Georgetown/Williamsburg counties.
Otherwise, a couple of stray showers popping up in Wilmington
and vicinity. Dry air moving into our area, mainly over NC with
pcp water values dropping to 1.5-1.6 inches through tonight,
with moisture holding to the south with 1.9 inches of pcp water
near southern edge of forecast area. Aviation discussion
updated for 00z TAFs.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level cloud cover has hindered destabilization today (esp
inland). That plus the lack of yesterday's forcing for ascent
from a shortwave and thunderstorm coverage should be lowered
back to normal today, if not a bit lower. Even the oft
enthusiastic HRRR only has limited coverage of storms and mainly
only along the seabreeze. Not quite ready to go dry along I-95
but will show a later introduction of POPs due the
aforementioned cloud cover and stability. After a normal diurnal
end of any convection tonight will be rain-free and
unseasonably mild to the tune of about 5 degrees. Saturday is
looking like a normal afternoon with respect to convection
timing and location as we should have a more sunny start to aid
in destabilization. The seabreeze will be the main contributor
but a few mesoscale boundaries should also be lurking inland.
The added sunshine will bring a warmer afternoon with low 90s
common away from the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Not a whole lot of change for the second half of the weekend
with weak flow aloft, Bermuda high pressure well offshore, and a
thermal trough inland. Scattered aftn/evening showers and
thunderstorms Sunday will be focused along the sea
breeze/thermal trough and outflow boundaries, before diminishing
in coverage following the loss of daytime heating. Temps Sunday
almost exactly the same as Saturday, with highs in the low/mid
90s and heat indices maxing out mostly in the 100-104 degree
range, just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term period will feature frequent chances for rain and near
to slightly below normal temps for mid July. PoPs most days are
a bit higher than this weekend's PoPs...in the likely range, but
we still undercut guidance a bit by blending in climatology, as
there is no organized forcing mechanism aloft outside of
transient shortwave troughs to warrant really high PoPs. Will
better nail down the timing as we get closer to the week. After
near normal highs on Monday, temps may only make it to the upr
80s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR generally
expected. Light southwesterly winds will veer to a more westerly
direction overnight, but holding near or below 5 kts. Winds
will remain light through the TAF period, backing to a more
southerly direction by Sat aftn. Lacking convection and any
residual moisture overnight and guidance and soundings showing
some cloud cover overnight, expect fog to be very limited and
will not include in TAFs. Saturday thunderstorm coverage will
once again be limited and looking at pcp water, should be
focused more in the Pee Dee and SC with greater chc at FLO, MYR
and CRE, but expect short-lived restrictions, if any, mainly
between 18z and 01z.
Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Southwesterly winds continue through the
period with high pressure anchored offshore. Seas around 3 ft
will contain both wind wave and swell components as usual in
such a setup. Overland troughiness expands Saturday for a
possible 5kt loss of wind speed.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions continue
as Bermuda high pressure resides well offshore. Winds average
out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, but actually in the
5-10 kt range much of the time. Seas mainly 2-3 ft, a combo of
southerly wind wave and 7-9 second SE swell.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MAS/MBB
Office: MHX
FXUS62 KMHX 112326
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
726 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
General summertime troughing is expected to remain in place
through early next.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM Friday...
Key Messages
- Thunderstorm risk expected to be focused along the coast
through this evening
- Patchy fog possible late tonight/early Saturday morning
With mid-level ridging to our west, westerly flow aloft is
ushering in drier air. This flow should help keep today's
seabreeze pinned closer to the coast and keep the majority of
shower and thunderstorm development east of Highway 17. According
to the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the heating of our residually
moist boundary layer has generated 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across our CWA. Although this is plenty of instability to
generate some stronger updrafts, deep layer shear is very low,
which will limit the possibility of storms becoming severe.
However, with drier air aloft today, storms may be able to
produce some stronger gusts. The bigger story is the potential
for more heavy rain IF storms are able to develop. With PWATs
still 2+" east of Highway 17, any storm will be capable of
producing torrential rain and localized flooding. Yesterday's
heavy rain caused flooding across the NOBX and Onslow County, so
these areas will be most susceptible to flooding today if
convection is able to develop.
Things will quiet down after sunset with attention then turning
to the potential for fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
With a moist boundary layer, light winds, and mostly clear
skies, radiation fog may develop across the coastal plain but
should burn off shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows
tonight will be in the mid-70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM Friday...
A building mid-level ridge and drier air aloft will keep shower
and thunderstorm coverage even more scattered tomorrow with
diurnal activity likely limited to sea/river/sound breezes.
Although PWATs will be slightly lower than today (1.5-2"), heavy
rain will still be possible from any stronger storm that
develops. WPC has the entire area outlined in a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) for excessive rainfall (at least a 5% chance of
flash flooding). We'll destabilize with afternoon heating and
develop 1000-2000+ J/kg but shear will be lacking once again, so
the threat for storms to become severe is low.
Slightly warmer temps tomorrow (mid-80s to low-90s) will pair
with dewpoints in the mid-70s to generate heat indices in the
mid-90s to low-100s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...We remain in a summer like pattern through the
long term period with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Upper level trough in the High Plains on Sat will
gradually push E'wards into the Northeast by early next week.
While upper level ridging off the coast of the Southeast
retrogrades westwards into the Deep South with the approach of
an upper level low. As we get into mid to late next week,
another upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast while upper ridging becomes entrenched across the Deep
South, and the previously mentioned upper low becomes
stationary near the Bahamas. At the mid levels, we will have
multiple weak mid level shortwaves track across the Carolinas on
Sat and Sun with a stronger mid level shortwave then pushing
into the area on Mon into Tue eventually stalling across the
Eastern Seaboard through about midweek.
We will see a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms on
and Sun. PWATs generally remain around 1.5-2.0 inches through
the weekend, and this will be relatively low compared to
previous days as some dry air associated with an approaching
backdoor cold front infiltrates the area. This dry air will also
likely limit shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend with
any sea/lake/sound breezes being the primary driver of
convective activity given the lack of significant forcing. One
caveat to this, is that we could see some enhanced convergence
along a weak backdoor front on Sat which could bring higher than
currently forecast shower and thunderstorm chances on Sat
before the boundary dissipates. Moisture then pools and PWATs
surge to greater than 2 inches across the area early next week
as the previously mentioned incoming shortwave early next week
pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. This will result in a
better chance at more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity as better forcing overspreads ENC. With PWATS remaining
elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any
thunderstorm that develops over the next few days will bring a
threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the
already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at
least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a
result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall this weekend. While there will be a lack of
wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms.
High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s with the
hottest temps over the weekend. While we are not expected to
reach heat advisory criteria this weekend, with heat indices
around 100-105 F on Sat and Sun, any prolonged outdoor exposure
could become hazardous to more vulnerable groups. Lows through
the entire long term remain in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sunday/...
As of 725 PM Fri...
Key Messages
- BR/MIFG possible late tonight/early Saturday morning
- Scattered TSRA possible Saturday
VFR conditions prevail across eastern NC as isolated convection
quickly wanes with loss of heating. With a moist boundary
layer, light winds, and mostly clear skies, radiation fog may
develop across the coastal plain early tomorrow morning.
LAMP guidance has trended a little more aggressively towards
favoring fog since the 18z cycle, and only change was to expand
MIFG to EWN and have an earlier start time. Fog should burn off
shortly after sunrise with light variable winds and
few/scattered low clouds lingering.
Convective chances once again return tomorrow afternoon, focused
primarily along the seabreeze and advancing northward through
the day. Coverage will be isolated to widely scattered at best
with a negligible severe risk.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Several mid level shortwaves will track across
ENC through early next week. This will continue to bring a
daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR
conditions. Reduced vis and ceilings from this activity is
possible. Though will note, best chances to see shower and
thunderstorm activity will be on Mon/Tue as the strongest in a
set of mid level shortwaves pushes through the area and moisture
pools out ahead of it. If it does rain then there will also be
a fog and low stratus threat each night as well for areas that
see meaningful rainfall.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1:40 PM Friday...10-15 kt SW winds will persist until
early tomorrow morning when a weak backdoor cold front will veer
the winds north of Cape Hatteras to the north by sunrise and to
the east by the afternoon. Winds will be lighter in the morning
(5-10 kt) but increase to ~10 kt in the afternoon. Seas will be
3-4 ft through tomorrow morning and then decrease to 2-3 by
tomorrow afternoon. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible today with
lower chances tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...With little change in the surface pattern
through this weekend and early next week, expect rather benign
boating conditions across our waters through the period. Winds
become SW'rly across all waters at 5-10 kts by Sun as
aforementioned back door cold front dissipates. Winds change
little into Tuesday. Seas persist around 2-4 ft with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing as well.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RCF/OJC
Office: RAH
FXUS62 KRAH 112354
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid airmass holds in
place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Friday...
* Widely scattered showers and storms late this afternoon, far less
than what has been seen as of late
* Near normal overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals stubbornly persistent low
cloud cover across portions of central NC. While all of the morning
fog has long since mixed out, areas along and south of US-64 remain
mostly cloudy while sky cover to the north is relatively limited.
This made for a rather atypical temperature distribution across the
area earlier this morning with the Triad actually seeing the warmest
temperatures in the CWA. This has since normalized a bit with temps
area-wide in the mid 80s. The exception remains the Sandhills where
temps remain in the upper 70s/around 80 as of 1pm. Despite the
varying amounts of cloud cover across the area, dewpoints are
relatively uniform in the low to mid 70s.
The plume of elevated PW's has shifted east, with widespread values
no longer in the 2 to 2.25 inch range across central NC. Rather,
PW's range from about 1.5 inches in the western Piedmont to around
1.9 inches across the southern Coastal Plain. The weak wave
responsible for Thursday's shower and thunderstorm activity has
shifted offshore, and WV imagery reveals an abundance of mid level
dry air and shortwave ridging building into the Mid Atlantic (in
response to a deepening trough over MN/IA). While it's hard to
completely rule out all shower/thunderstorm activity today, the odds
certainly seem in favor of a quieter, less convectively active
afternoon across the region. 00Z and 12Z HREF both indicated some
widely scattered activity later this afternoon, but with no clear
focal area for development. If anything, perhaps the lingering cloud
cover across the area will serve up some weak differential heating
boundaries upon which a few showers and storms could develop. A
small cluster of storms (albeit weak) has formed in eastern Guilford
Co, perhaps on the edge of where we saw fog earlier today. Either
way, I'll hang onto some very low PoPs in the 10-20 percent range
through 00Z, then back down below 10 percent for the
evening/overnight hours. Should any showers/storms develop, they'll
be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain but widespread
flooding shouldn't be a concern given limited areal coverage.
In terms of temps tonight, look for lows to bottom out in the low to
mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Friday...
* Similar airmass in place across the region on Saturday, with
scattered showers and storms expected
* Temperatures reaching the mid 90s Saturday afternoon
Not much change in the atmosphere for Saturday, with a nearly
identical distribution of PW's across the region (1.5" NW, close to
2" SE). Weak Piedmont troughing at the surface in response to weak
northwesterly flow aloft should be a trigger for afternoon shower
and thunderstorm development across the area tomorrow, although
there will still be an abundance of dry air in the mid levels to
overcome. With plenty of MLCAPE on offer around 2000-2500 J/KG and
sufficient moisture in place, one would expect at least some
thunderstorm development although they should be short lived given
weak steering flow. 12Z HREF confirms the idea of more areal
coverage of showers and storms compared to today, but still a far
cry from earlier this week. PoPs will range from 20-40 percent
tomorrow, peaking from 20Z-00Z, then tailing off after sunset.
Temps on Saturday should be on par with today's, with highs in the
low to mid 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Given the
continued period of dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, look for
afternoon heat indices to eclipse 100 degrees in many locations
although they should fall short of heat advisory levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...
* Daily diurnal showers and storms return, with highest confidence
in the Mon to Wed time frame
* Heat and humidity much of the week, with heat indices highest Sun
and Mon in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
After a brief reprieve in our storm chances, it would appear that an
uptick in scattered showers and storms are in the offing for the
long term. A cold front and attendant trough over the Great Lakes to
OH valley region Sun will gradually slide south and east into the
middle of next week. The front will not make it through, dying out
somewhere near central/southern VA. But the proximity of the
trough/front being close to central NC, along with precipitable
water values increasing once again to 2 to 2.25 inches, will favor
increasing shower and storm chances each afternoon and evening Mon
into Wed. After Wed, the Bermuda high will extend its influence,
with persistent warm and moist southerly flow. With the absence of
any large-scale forcing these days, storm chances may lessen but
will still be above climo with the moist and unstable airmass in
place. A late-week cold front sometime Fri-Sat will also try to
approach, which should keep rain chances on the higher end. Any
storms over saturated soils will risk the potential for flash
flooding, especially over the Piedmont.
As for temperatures, it appears warmest Sun and Mon in the low to
mid 90s. Heat indices during this time will range from the upper 90s
to lower 100s. A few locales in the Triangle and Sandhills region
could briefly reach heat advisory criteria of 105, but will let
later forecast shifts evaluate further. Rain chances being high
around the middle of the week will keep temps warm and muggy but
lower in the 80s to near 90, before warming back up Fri in the lower
90s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Friday...
After several very active weather days across central NC, this
evening through Fri morning will be fairly quiet, with very low
chances for showers and storms. Isolated showers may move near
INT/GSO through 03z this evening, but the confidence is low, and any
impacts should be brief, with VFR conditions prevailing. Shower and
storm chances are even lower at other TAF sites through tonight.
With still-damp soils and light winds, a short period of light fog
is possible at all sites 09z-12z, and vsbys should generally be no
lower than 5-6SM, but will monitor. VFR conditions will dominate
Sat, and while another round of isolated storms is possible after
20z, the coverage should be low, and will not include in the
terminals at this time. Surface winds will be light and variable
through Sat morning, then from the S and SW Sat afternoon but still
mostly under 10 kts.
Looking beyond 00z Sun, the overall pattern will remain largely
unchanged into the middle of next week, with a risk for early-
morning sub-VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms
each afternoon into the evening. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Hartfield
