Office: JAN
FXUS64 KJAN 131439 AAB
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
939 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather, warm afternoons, and cool mornings prevail
through the work week.
- Chances for showers and storms return to the forecast area on
Saturday.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Rest of Today...High pressure at the surface remains wedged into the
forecast area from the northeast, while ridging aloft continues to
increase its presence across the region today. This will result in
continued warm temperatures this afternoon, with less humid
conditions as dew points mix into the 50s. Under sunny skies, highs
this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s with north winds
between 5-8 mph.
The ongoing forecast is in good shape. Other than some minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current
trends, no major changes will be made on this morning's forecast
update. /19/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
High pressure will remain in control this week as an omega block
pattern takes shape across the CONUS. As such, dry conditions will
promote greater diurnal ranges, with above normal high temperatures
persisting through the week, and cooler than normal lows. Fire risk
is non zero, though marginal, with RH generally in the 28-35 range.
Winds are light, but will continue to monitor conditions and will
post a graphic if necessary.
Later in the week, as southern trajectories become established,
moisture will begin to increase ahead of a low pressure system and
attendant surface cold front. At this time, guidance is in good
agreement that the ridge holds strong for the lead wave, deflecting
to the north. It is the second wave that looks to be a weather maker
for us, reflected by an increase in rain/storm chances (30-50%).
There is, however, some uncertainty in the evolution exists at this
time. In the wake of this system, dry weather returns with weak
ridging taking hold again. A wavier pattern appears evident going
forward and should supply intermittent rain chances. /SAS/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions and light winds generally from the north at less than
10 kts should prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Some
patchy BR cannot be ruled out before 13Z today, but confidence in
visibility restrictions was too low to mention at any site. /NF/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 86 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 86 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 87 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 89 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 87 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 87 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 87 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19/
