mo discuss
Office: LSX
FXUS63 KLSX 241102
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
The earlier issued Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled.
Visibility has improved across the region. Some patchy areas of
fog remain, but they are localized and improving.
Kimble
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, are expected late
this week and this weekend. While we cannot rule out severe
weather just about anytime from early Friday morning through
Sunday, we are focused on two primary periods:
- Thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening will pose a
conditional threat for all severe weather hazards. The
greatest uncertainty is whether these thunderstorms will form in
our area after activity earlier in the day.
- Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening will pose a threat
for all severe weather hazards including tornadoes. The greatest
uncertainty with this is related to the timing of a cold front.
The threat could be focused in our area or to our west. With a
slower front, the threat could continue into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Early this morning we find ourselves within an area of surface high
pressure centered near the western Great Lakes in the wake of
yesterday's cold front. Areas of dense fog early this morning, due
to leftover moisture after yesterday's rain, is eroding from north
to south as dry advection eventually wins out. This fog gives way to
a mostly clear sky today with perhaps some afternoon cumulus.
Temperatures top out near or just below seasonal averages, in the
60s to low 70s. Tonight should be our coolest night of this air mass
as surface high pressure begins to moves east through the Great
Lakes with our area on the southwest periphery. Dewpoints in the 40s
suggest that lows should similarly be in the 40s, but parts of
central Illinois could see some 30s closer to the surface high.
On Thursday, the initial rumblings (no pun intended) of an upcoming
active weather period will show up to our west. Moisture surging
back northward through the Plains will set off showers and
thunderstorms across Kansas during the day on Thursday. With mid
level flow out of the WNW, clouds and remnant showers will have a
tendency to drift downstream across Missouri and potentially into
our area. We'll still be in the cooler, drier air mass with little
to no instability, so we expect any strong to severe storms on
Thursday to remain well to our west. With the potential for more
cloud cover, especially over central Missouri, temperatures may
actually be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday, mainly in the
60s.
Kimble
&&
.LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Big Picture Overview:
As upper ridging moves east a trough will move into the
Southwestern US with multiple shortwave troughs exiting through
the Plains late this week and through the weekend. Gulf of Mexico
moisture spreads north and east across the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley setting up an unstable environment capable of
producing thunderstorms each day. With a predominantly southerly
flow at the surface and moderate to occasionally strong
southwesterly flow aloft, enough shear will also exist to produced
organized strong to severe thunderstorms. As each shortwave trough
moves through the Plains it and its related fronts will serve as
focusing areas for thunderstorm activity. The timing of these
waves and the recovery of the air mass in between waves are the
primary sources of uncertainty for the threats each day. While we
cannot rule out thunderstorms just about any time as we remain in
the unstable air mass, the focus for our area is on two primary
periods: Friday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Thursday Night into Friday Morning:
The better low level moisture makes its initial surge northeast
into and through our area along an ill-defined warm front as a
shortwave trough moves into the Northern Plains. We will see areas
of showers and thunderstorms in this moist advection particularly
along and ahead of the warm front. In this sort of scenario,
thunderstorms would be elevated in nature and pose primarily a
hail threat depending on the available instability. At the moment,
models are not very aggressive with the instability with this
initial moisture push, perhaps in part due to a potential
thunderstorm complex over southwest Missouri late Thursday into
Thursday evening weakening the moisture gradient as it moves
through our area late Thursday night into Friday morning. While it
doesn't look great right now, we don't place too much faith on
lower resolution long range models to resolve this sort of
elevated instability and so we remain alert for at least a
conditional threat of hail with this opening round of
thunderstorms.
Friday Afternoon and Evening:
We will likely see at least some daytime heating on Friday to
help destabilize the newly arrived moist air mass and generate
surface based instability Friday afternoon and evening. How much
destabilization occurs and where it occurs depends in part on the
convection earlier in the day on Friday. The better forcing with
the shortwave trough will be exiting to the northeast through the
day, and there are no other obvious low level features to trigger
convection in our area. Thunderstorm initiation in our area Friday
afternoon would depend on other more subtle boundaries that may
locally develop. Convective initiation is more likely further to
the west along the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma with these
potentially tracking into our area Friday evening. There should be
enough shear available for supercells, although they may begin
merging into a broader convective complex before they arrive. The
primary threat with storms during this period would be large hail
and damaging winds, although an isolated tornado could not be
ruled out given the available directional shear.
Saturday Night:
Shortwave ridging in the wake of Friday's shortwave trough will
promote subsidence and a capping inversion across our area during
the day on Saturday. This will make it difficult for thunderstorms
to form despite good moisture and likely the strongest heating of
the period. We may well see our greatest surface based CAPE
values during this period, but without a focus or a weakened cap
it will be difficult to trigger convection in our area on
Saturday. However, convection is expected to form along the
dryline to our west as well as along a warm front in the vicinity
of northwest Missouri and southern Iowa during the evening. Our
best chance for thunderstorms Saturday night will be with a
developing convective complex associated with the activity to our
west which could then track into the northern portion of our
forecast area overnight Saturday night. This would primarily pose
a threat for damaging winds, although a QLCS tornado would also be
possible.
Sunday Afternoon and Evening:
As the next shortwave trough moves into the Northern Plains on
Sunday it will finally send a clearing cold front southeastward.
Thunderstorm initiation is expected in the warm sector ahead of
this front on Sunday, with the available shear and instability
favoring supercells congealing into a broader convective complex.
All severe weather hazards would be possible with these including
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. There could also be a
threat for locally heavy rainfall with training thunderstorms. The
biggest source of uncertainty for this period is where the cold
front will be and by extension where thunderstorms will initiate.
There remains considerable uncertainty in the guidance on how
quickly the front moves through, with a slight trend emerging
favoring holding the front off to our west. If the front is
slower, then the main severe weather threats on Sunday may be to
our west and there could be a renewed threat in our area lingering
into Monday. If the front is closer to or in our area then the
primary severe weather threats would be in our area as well with
the clearing front eliminating the threat for Monday.
Once the front moves through we will see the moisture pushed off to
our south and end our daily threats for thunderstorms. The air mass
behind this front has origins in the Pacific (not cold) with a
trajectory through the western mountains (dry) so we won't see a
noticeable temperature drop behind it. In fact, ridging builds back
in quickly behind the departed trough opening us back up to even
warmer temperatures for the middle of next week.
Kimble
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Pockets of fog early this morning at valley terminals will burn
off quickly this morning, by around 12Z. Winds become light out of
the north under VFR conditions. A back door cold front is moving
southwest through northern Illinois this morning with some MVFR
ceilings behind it. This is expected to lose its push southwest
with time and clouds dissipate before reaching any of the TAF
terminals. If it does make it in, it will likely be for a brief
window of MVFR ceilings before burning off.
Kimble
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
FXUS63 KLSX 241105
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
605 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
The earlier issued Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled.
Visibility has improved across the region. Some patchy areas of
fog remain, but they are localized and improving.
Kimble
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, are expected late
this week and this weekend. While we cannot rule out severe
weather just about anytime from early Friday morning through
Sunday, we are focused on two primary periods:
- Thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening will pose a
conditional threat for all severe weather hazards. The
greatest uncertainty is whether these thunderstorms will form in
our area after activity earlier in the day.
- Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening will pose a threat
for all severe weather hazards including tornadoes. The greatest
uncertainty with this is related to the timing of a cold front.
The threat could be focused in our area or to our west. With a
slower front, the threat could continue into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Early this morning we find ourselves within an area of surface high
pressure centered near the western Great Lakes in the wake of
yesterday's cold front. Areas of dense fog early this morning, due
to leftover moisture after yesterday's rain, is eroding from north
to south as dry advection eventually wins out. This fog gives way to
a mostly clear sky today with perhaps some afternoon cumulus.
Temperatures top out near or just below seasonal averages, in the
60s to low 70s. Tonight should be our coolest night of this air mass
as surface high pressure begins to moves east through the Great
Lakes with our area on the southwest periphery. Dewpoints in the 40s
suggest that lows should similarly be in the 40s, but parts of
central Illinois could see some 30s closer to the surface high.
On Thursday, the initial rumblings (no pun intended) of an upcoming
active weather period will show up to our west. Moisture surging
back northward through the Plains will set off showers and
thunderstorms across Kansas during the day on Thursday. With mid
level flow out of the WNW, clouds and remnant showers will have a
tendency to drift downstream across Missouri and potentially into
our area. We'll still be in the cooler, drier air mass with little
to no instability, so we expect any strong to severe storms on
Thursday to remain well to our west. With the potential for more
cloud cover, especially over central Missouri, temperatures may
actually be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday, mainly in the
60s.
Kimble
&&
.LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Big Picture Overview:
As upper ridging moves east a trough will move into the
Southwestern US with multiple shortwave troughs exiting through
the Plains late this week and through the weekend. Gulf of Mexico
moisture spreads north and east across the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley setting up an unstable environment capable of
producing thunderstorms each day. With a predominantly southerly
flow at the surface and moderate to occasionally strong
southwesterly flow aloft, enough shear will also exist to produced
organized strong to severe thunderstorms. As each shortwave trough
moves through the Plains it and its related fronts will serve as
focusing areas for thunderstorm activity. The timing of these
waves and the recovery of the air mass in between waves are the
primary sources of uncertainty for the threats each day. While we
cannot rule out thunderstorms just about any time as we remain in
the unstable air mass, the focus for our area is on two primary
periods: Friday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Thursday Night into Friday Morning:
The better low level moisture makes its initial surge northeast
into and through our area along an ill-defined warm front as a
shortwave trough moves into the Northern Plains. We will see areas
of showers and thunderstorms in this moist advection particularly
along and ahead of the warm front. In this sort of scenario,
thunderstorms would be elevated in nature and pose primarily a
hail threat depending on the available instability. At the moment,
models are not very aggressive with the instability with this
initial moisture push, perhaps in part due to a potential
thunderstorm complex over southwest Missouri late Thursday into
Thursday evening weakening the moisture gradient as it moves
through our area late Thursday night into Friday morning. While it
doesn't look great right now, we don't place too much faith on
lower resolution long range models to resolve this sort of
elevated instability and so we remain alert for at least a
conditional threat of hail with this opening round of
thunderstorms.
Friday Afternoon and Evening:
We will likely see at least some daytime heating on Friday to
help destabilize the newly arrived moist air mass and generate
surface based instability Friday afternoon and evening. How much
destabilization occurs and where it occurs depends in part on the
convection earlier in the day on Friday. The better forcing with
the shortwave trough will be exiting to the northeast through the
day, and there are no other obvious low level features to trigger
convection in our area. Thunderstorm initiation in our area Friday
afternoon would depend on other more subtle boundaries that may
locally develop. Convective initiation is more likely further to
the west along the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma with these
potentially tracking into our area Friday evening. There should be
enough shear available for supercells, although they may begin
merging into a broader convective complex before they arrive. The
primary threat with storms during this period would be large hail
and damaging winds, although an isolated tornado could not be
ruled out given the available directional shear.
Saturday Night:
Shortwave ridging in the wake of Friday's shortwave trough will
promote subsidence and a capping inversion across our area during
the day on Saturday. This will make it difficult for thunderstorms
to form despite good moisture and likely the strongest heating of
the period. We may well see our greatest surface based CAPE
values during this period, but without a focus or a weakened cap
it will be difficult to trigger convection in our area on
Saturday. However, convection is expected to form along the
dryline to our west as well as along a warm front in the vicinity
of northwest Missouri and southern Iowa during the evening. Our
best chance for thunderstorms Saturday night will be with a
developing convective complex associated with the activity to our
west which could then track into the northern portion of our
forecast area overnight Saturday night. This would primarily pose
a threat for damaging winds, although a QLCS tornado would also be
possible.
Sunday Afternoon and Evening:
As the next shortwave trough moves into the Northern Plains on
Sunday it will finally send a clearing cold front southeastward.
Thunderstorm initiation is expected in the warm sector ahead of
this front on Sunday, with the available shear and instability
favoring supercells congealing into a broader convective complex.
All severe weather hazards would be possible with these including
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. There could also be a
threat for locally heavy rainfall with training thunderstorms. The
biggest source of uncertainty for this period is where the cold
front will be and by extension where thunderstorms will initiate.
There remains considerable uncertainty in the guidance on how
quickly the front moves through, with a slight trend emerging
favoring holding the front off to our west. If the front is
slower, then the main severe weather threats on Sunday may be to
our west and there could be a renewed threat in our area lingering
into Monday. If the front is closer to or in our area then the
primary severe weather threats would be in our area as well with
the clearing front eliminating the threat for Monday.
Once the front moves through we will see the moisture pushed off to
our south and end our daily threats for thunderstorms. The air mass
behind this front has origins in the Pacific (not cold) with a
trajectory through the western mountains (dry) so we won't see a
noticeable temperature drop behind it. In fact, ridging builds back
in quickly behind the departed trough opening us back up to even
warmer temperatures for the middle of next week.
Kimble
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Pockets of fog early this morning at valley terminals will burn
off quickly this morning, by around 12Z. Winds become light out of
the north under VFR conditions. A back door cold front is moving
southwest through northern Illinois this morning with some MVFR
ceilings behind it. This is expected to lose its push southwest
with time and clouds dissipate before reaching any of the TAF
terminals. If it does make it in, it will likely be for a brief
window of MVFR ceilings. As winds go light again tonight we could
see fog form at valley locations once again.
Kimble
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Office: SGF
FXUS63 KSGF 240730
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog and ground fog early this morning...especially
along area lakes and rivers.
- Showers and some storms return late today into Thursday.
- Risk of severe storms Friday through Sunday night.
- Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will accompany the
active weather period this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show an upper trough axis over the Ohio
valley with a ridge axis over the Rockies into the high plains
and an upper low circulation in the Pacific off the California
coast. Our area was located in between the trough axis and the
upper ridge axis with a northwest flow over the region. This has
brought a cold front through the area on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. There was
a light and variable wind behind the front with some boundary
level moisture still remaining which was causing some fog and
ground fog, especially along with area rivers and lakes which
can be seen nicely with the nighttime microphysics GOES channel.
Not widespread enough for a dense fog advisory at this time but
will continue to mention the potential for fog, especially in
our eastern CWA this morning.
Today: Surface high pressure will continue to drift off to the
east with mainly an easterly flow over the area at the surface.
The front will hang up over Arkansas with the main low level
moisture axis to our southwest. Any fog should burn off this
morning and we should see highs return to the lower to middle
70s with some mid and upper level cloud cover. Precipitation
should remain to our south and west through the day.
Tonight into Thursday: A low level jet will set up over the
plains tonight in advance of a developing area of low pressure
in the high plains. Eastern edges of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms should make it into our western CWA during the
night. Upper level energy will move into the area on Thursday
with the moisture axis shifting into the area (PW values 1.2" to
1.5"). Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
over the area during the day Thursday. The best instability will
remain to our west so we are not expecting any severe weather
through Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Severe weather, heavy rain and flooding chances Friday through
the Weekend: The upper trough should move into the high plains
Thursday night into Friday with upper divergence increasing over
the area. Very strong low level winds with 850 mb jet of 40-50
kts over the area by Friday morning. Instability will begin to
shift eastward into the area on Friday with 1000-1500 j/kg sfc
based CAPE values in the western CWA during the day on Friday
and 35-60 kts of 0-6km shear. Will start to see our severe
weather probabilities increase on Friday. The first upper level
low will lift negatively tilted to the northeast into Nebraska
by 00z Sat. While the first wave of showers and thunderstorms
may end Friday night into Saturday morning, the next wave will
begin to lift northeast into the plains late in the day Saturday
with additional convection likely developing over the west late
Saturday into Saturday night. Sufficient shear and instability
will be available as this next wave of convection pushes through
Saturday night into Sunday night for another round of severe
weather. The main upper level low and surface low will remain
north of the area, but a strong cold front will push through the
area Sunday into Sunday night. Because of the higher PW values
and likely training of storms across the same locations, we will
have increased risk of excessive rainfall and flooding across
the area this weekend.
The main trough axis should push through the area on Monday with
mainly dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer than normal
conditions are expected with an upper ridge axis over the area
and the northern stream jet well to the north of the area. Highs
should be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
For the 06z TAFS, Predominantly VFR conditions are expected at
the TAF sites through the period. Only fly in ointment is the
potential for some ground fog and will monitor that through the
overnight hours, specifically at the BBG site where latest obs
had a zero dew point depression and no wind speed. High pressure
will slide to the east today with an easterly wind developing.
Mid/high level cloudiness will move into the area ahead of the
next system. Warm advection convection will likely not arrive
until after the end of the 06z TAF period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 26:
KSGF: 66/2016
April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899
April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896
Record Precipitation:
April 28:
KSGF: 2.19/1996
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden
Office: EAX
FXUS63 KEAX 240740
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
240 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heads Up: Multiple rounds of thunderstorms beginning Thursday,
continuing through Sunday.
- Severe thunderstorm chances Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
- Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with Saturday
Evening into Sunday system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
06Z surface analysis reveals the surface ridge continues to develop
across the Northern Plains early this morning. This trend will
continue as mid-level ridging continues to evolve across the Rockies
through today. What does that mean for us? Well, today is the last
quiet, nice day, before we enter an active period marked by
thunderstorms and rainfall Thursday through Sunday. With light north
and finally east-southeast winds today, temperatures will remain
seasonable, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tonight, with the mid-level ridge shifting east, influenced by the
eastward dig of an H500 trough along the West Coast, broadscale
forcing for ascent will develop across the Southern Plains and
spreading northward through Thursday morning. Tapped into decent
Gulf Moisture, rain and showers are expected to develop and spread
northward across the region through Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings suggest some skinny elevated instability could develop
through the mid to late morning, resulting in rumbles of thunder.
Through Thursday, as the H500 trough pivots over the Four Corners,
anticipate ample recovery across the western High Plains of
KS/TXPH/OKPH. With Mid-60s dew points developing from central Kansas
into Oklahoma, instability will surge through the afternoon, with an
axis of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE. Mid-range guidance has been in
decent agreement with the surface low center lifting out of Colorado
into northwestern Kansas through the late afternoon. With a decent
dryline positioned from near Goodland KS and South toward Guymon OK,
expect convection to develop from the triple point in
northwestern Kansas and southward as the cold front advances
into western Kansas through the late afternoon and evening. For
more details check out the latest SWODY2 from SPC and
discussions from the KS, TX, and OK WFOs. For our area, warm
sector convection will likely be ongoing through the day across
far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with activity spreading
east through the evening and overnight into Friday. A few
strong storms may exist during this period, but no widespread
severe weather for our area is expected at this time.
Friday, as mentioned yesterday, lingering showers/convective
activity through the morning would have some limited influence on
recovery through midday to the afternoon. The Aforementioned mid-
level short wave is expected to lift east-northeast across central
Nebraska by midday, maintaining a negative tilt, with the surface
low center nearby. Most guidance has ample recovery through the
early afternoon, with daytime heating and southerly flow combining
for a ribbon of 2000 J/Kg SBCAPE extending from eastern Oklahoma
across eastern Kansas into northwestern MO. The focus for severe
convective development will be along this axis, but closer to the
surface low in southeast Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, and
northwestern Missouri where the better dynamics will be. Primarily,
latest solutions from mid-range guidance suggests the cold front
will overtake the dryline late in the afternoon, with convection
firing from southwestern Iowa into northwestern Missouri and south
along the boundary as it advances eastward. There is one big issue
of note, and I made note of it yesterday. With such an
aggressive negative tilt to the trough, southwesterly flow
through the lower levels will more than likely result in a
decent EML, and forecast soundings confirm this. Now, the front
will provide some assist in breaking the capping inversion, but
convection may be delayed until later in the afternoon to the
early evening because of this. The influence of the EML will
probably be felt the further south down the front one travels.
The effects are less of an issue in far northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri, where initial convection is most likely.
All modes of severe weather will be possible given deep layer
shear supporting organization. Shear orientation also suggests
initial convection to be single cell, with a brief period of
backing surface winds in northwest Missouri a concern. Large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible
with the strongest updrafts Friday afternoon and evening.
Convection will steadily exit east overnight through Saturday
morning.
Saturday, there will be a lull in activity through the morning to
midday. Through sunrise, out west, another churning H500 trough
crossing the Rockies will emerge on the western High Plains through
the day. Ahead of this system, ample return flow from the Gulf will
pool across the Plains, with broadscale ascent through the warm
sector driving scattered convection through the day from Oklahoma
and Arkansas and north. As the surface low lifts east into western
Kansas, once again, organized convection will develop along the
intersection of the cold front and the dryline, as well as along the
warm front across central Kansas through the afternoon and evening.
The big concern I have for our area late Saturday into early Sunday
will be excessive and continuous moderate to heavy rainfall. With
pwats pushing 1.50 to 2.00 inches and the warm front extended from
eastern Kansas to northeastern Missouri, training thunderstorms are
going to be a big concern overnight. The track of greatest rainfall
still looks to be across northern into northeastern Missouri, but
thunderstorms will result in locally heavy rainfall and the
increased risk of rises on area streams and rivers and flash
flooding. Even with the moderate drought for much of the area, the
flooding concern exists. Additionally, a few severe storms remain
possible, with hail and wind the primary concerns at this time.
We'll need to watch any storms that anchor to the warm front given
the enhancement of shear brought on by the boundary.
Thunderstorms will continue through Sunday across the area, with
rainfall amounts from Saturday night to Sunday morning totaling
around 2 to 3 inches in many locations, with locally higher
amounts possible. Long range guidance continues to suggest
modest recovery of the airmass through midday ahead of the
northeast churn of the upper short wave over Iowa. In response,
a modest instability axis will develop through central Missouri,
with convective development expected along the trailing cold
front through the afternoon. This will bring us our last window
of potential strong to severe convection for the weekend, with
focus from central into eastern Missouri. Hail and wind will be
the primary concerns, but again, farther north, nearer the more
favorable shear environment, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
Precipitation should end to the east Sunday night. By the end of the
weekend, the overall rainfall total from Thursday to Sunday could be
upwards of 4 to 6 inches of rain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Light
winds will persist, generally out of the north this morning,
before shifting to the east and southeast through late morning.
Late in the period, increasing BKN high ceilings will develop.
After 03Z, -SHRA chances will develop, but confidence in
coverage and timing is low at this time for area terminals.
Therefore, will hold off any mention at this time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Kurtz
