Office: LSX
FXUS63 KLSX 210746
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
246 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
High pressure has settled over the Mid-Missouri Valley and will be
the focus for this forecast period. The clear skies and light winds
associated with the high have allowed temps to quickly fall this
morning, and as of 2 am, nearly all areas have fallen into the mid
to low 30s. With several hours remaining prior to sunrise, chances
look good for everyone to fall below freezing, so the Freeze Warning
seems to be in good shape.
NW flow in the wake of yesterday's shortwave will continue to usher
bone dry air into the region. The upper level flow will then turn
zonal this afternoon, shunting the surface high to the east,
swinging surface winds around to the SW. The SW flow coupled with
clear skies will allow for afternoon temperatures to rebound quite
well from this morning's freezing temperatures. Winds will be quite
a bit weaker than what we saw yesterday.
BSH
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
Focus continues to be temps with precip chances late this week
diminishing.
Not a lot has changed through the forecast period compared 24 hours
ago. Models are still in generally good agreement through Wed.
Period begins with the sfc ridge over the CWA this morning building
southeast out of the region. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front just north
of the CWA will push south through the area on Mon as an upper level
trof approaches the Great Lakes region. As the sfc ridge builds into
the region behind this front, cooler temps are expected for Tues and
Wed. However, with weak CAA at the surface and heights rising over
the region, have trended toward the warmer guidance on Tues. With
easterly flow anticipated on Wed, have trended cooler.
The GEM becomes an outlier with a stronger sfc low on Thurs and have
trended toward a ECMWF/GFS compromise for Thurs and beyond.
Confidence in timing of precip late this week remains low due to
continued a lack of consistency from one cycle to the next. Have
therefore kept PoPs low across the region. With dry air in place and
weak forcing overall, the chance of precip is low regardless.
With a trof over the area late this week, expect temps to be below
seasonal average. Have held off making drastic changes to temps for
Sat at this time due to low confidence mentioned above. However, if
trends continue, going forecast is much too warm.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period
with clear skies expected.
A surface high pressure system will slide into the area overnight
bringing light and variable winds. The center of the high
pressure system will slide to the southeast of the area on Sunday
resulting in the development of south-southwest surface from
mid-morning into the afternoon.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period
with clear skies expected.
A surface high pressure system will slide into the area overnight
bringing light and variable winds. The center of the high
pressure system will slide to the southeast of the area on Sunday
resulting in the development of light south-southwest surface
by midday.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 54 40 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 57 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 57 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 52 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 54 37 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis
City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Bond IL-Clinton
IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Office: SGF
FXUS63 KSGF 210714
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
214 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
Today will start with morning temperatures in the lower 30s to
middle 20s with a hard freeze expected. This hard freeze will
likely end the growing season across most or all of the Ozarks
and southeastern Kansas. The surface high over the Ozarks will
keep skies clear and light northerly winds in place as we move
into today.
The clear skies and sunshine will allow temperatures to climb
into the 50s to around 60 degrees this afternoon. With light winds
continuing, it will be a pleasant day.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather as we
start the coming work week with reinforcing rounds of high
pressure through the middle of the week. We will be near
seasonable normals to start the week with a cool down expected for
wednesday and Thursday thanks to an upper level short wave which
may bring some light rain showers as well.
The upper level pattern will become more northwesterly for the end
of the week with a better chance for rainfall coming Friday night
into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018
KSGF/KBBG/KJLN tafs: VFR with sfc high pressure drifting through
then southeast of the region during the taf period. Light winds
will gradually veer to the south.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...DSA
Office: EAX
FXUS63 KEAX 210821
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
No significant changes to the forecast. Surface high pressure has
settled over the central US providing clear skies and light winds
which will allow temperatures to drop near 30F for many areas and
even upper 20s for north central Missouri. As the high slides
eastward winds will eventually shift from the south during the day
on Sunday and into Monday providing enough WAA to raise
temperatures a few degrees.
By Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a weak cold front will push
through the area. However, with very limited moisture, a slight
increase in clouds and winds shifting from the north will be the
only results. Precip chances for Wednesday evening still look
limited. Upper level support is fairly unimpressive and while the
GFS and ECMWF agree on a chance of light precip, they vary on
timing and location. That said, clouds will increase on Wednesday
into Thursday, but any precip that falls will be light and short
lived. The early part of the weekend still look like the best
chance for any meaningful precipitation across the CWA.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018
VFR conditions expected with clear skies through the period. Light
winds overnight will increase slightly after sunrise to late in
the morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter/Otto
Aviation...CDB
