mo discuss
Office: LSX
FXUS63 KLSX 152301
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
501 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much cooler, albeit still seasonably mild temperatures will
arrive by Sunday.
- Although there is a 50 to 80 percent chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Monday evening/night, confidence continues to
increase in more widespread and substantial rainfall in the
Wednesday-Friday timeframe.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
At the surface, a cold front is actively traversing the CWA,
reaching the I-44 and I-70 corridors this afternoon. A warm start to
the day, mostly clear skies, and delayed post-frontal CAA has
contributed to another day of well-above average high temperatures
in the 70s to near 80 F (just shy of the daily record at KSTL).
Behind the front, decreasing dewpoints and slow-to-cool temperatures
are anticipated to sporadically reduce RH to near 35 percent in
northeastern MO/west-central IL late this afternoon. With sustained
winds of 10 to 15 mph, brief (1 or 2 hours) elevated fire weather
conditions are expected at most before temperatures cool more
quickly around sunset.
Low-level northwesterly to northerly flow and CAA behind the front
will usher a much cooler, albeit still seasonably mild airmass into
the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Sunday. The airmass will also be
quite dry (PW approaching 10th climo percentile) with dewpoints
falling into the 20s and teens F yielding remarkably low afternoon
RH of 15 to 25 percent. Fortunately, an arriving surface anticyclone
and slackening winds will preclude conventional elevated fire danger
conditions from behind met in addition to the cool temperatures.
Pfahler
&&
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
On Monday, an upper-level shortwave trough is progged to track
across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest will weakening as it
encounters unfavorable, confluent northwesterly flow. An attendant,
weak surface cyclone and a wing of strong low to mid-level WAA ahead
of the warm front will be catalysts for showers developing during
the afternoon/evening across MO, with greatest coverage anticipated
along/east of the Mississippi River Monday night when deeper
moisture arrives. Model guidance also general aligns with 250 to
1000 J/kg of elevated instability being present and supporting
thunderstorms, but any thunderstorms will be elevated and, perhaps,
capable of some small hail. Although probabilities of measurable
rainfall Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning are high (60 to 80
percent) in ensemble model guidance across that area, rainfall will
be transient with probabilities of over 0.25" at 20 percent or less.
With the CWA north of the warm from on Monday, high temperatures
will remain similar to Sunday.
Model guidance has come into much better agreement on the track of
the weak surface cyclone across the CWA on Tuesday, somewhere near
or just north of the I-70 corridor. As a result, NBM interquartile
ranges have narrowed below 10 F, closing in on high temperatures in
the upper 60s and 70s F along/south of I-70 in the warm sector and
low to mid-60s F to the north. Mostly dry conditions are expected on
Tuesday with large-scale forcing weakening and a capping inversion
limiting the potential for any initiation of showers directly with
the cyclone and its surface fronts.
A more substantial round of rain event is forecast across the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley sometime between Wednesday and Friday as
model guidance have depictions of an upper-level trough ejecting
northeastward from the Desert Southwest toward the region. These
depictions still vary with regards to timing and the
amplitude/structure of the trough, which will impact the
timing/duration of rainfall more specifically across the CWA along
with amounts. Initially on Wednesday into Thursday, precipitation
will be largely driven by the interaction of strengthening southerly
WAA/isentropic ascent with a lingering front from Tuesday's cyclone.
Highest rolling 6-hour probabilities of rain in ensemble model
guidance remain largely across northern AR and southern MO, but
additional precipitation associated more directly with the trough
and its maturing surface cyclone Thursday into Friday is
corresponded with much higher probabilities extending northward into
the CWA. In terms of total rainfall, NBM probabilities of over 1"
are 60 to 80 percent along and south of the I-70 corridor with
probabilities of over 2" at 40 to 60 percent supported by an
anomalous PW projected to exceed the 90th climatological percentile
and the potential for a longer duration event. The threat of heavy
rainfall will need to at least be monitored across the broader
region, but the range of possible scenarios captured by latest
deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggest this potential is
greater to the south of the CWA within higher probabilities of
instability and greater consensus on the initially stationary front
being present.
Pfahler
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast
period at all local terminals.
Elmore
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 429 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Daily record high temperatures will be within range today (11/15),
although the chance of reaching or exceeding these values is
slightly lower than yesterday.
St. Louis (STL): 81 degrees (1971)
Columbia (COU): 78 degrees (1950)
Quincy (UIN): 75 degrees (1950)
BRC
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Office: SGF
FXUS63 KSGF 152230
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
430 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record high temperatures are in jeopardy across the area
today, as temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal.
Temperatures then drop into the 60s for Sunday then back well
above normal for Tuesday.
- 30-40% rain chances on Monday east of Highway 65, with less
rain chances (10-20%) west of Highway 65.
- Higher rain chances (>60%) then return for Wednesday and
Thursday as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across portions of area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the ridge across the central/southern US
beginning to start to slide south as shortwave energy moves
through the northern plains. A strong upper low was still
centered off the California coast. A very warm and dry mid level
airmass was located over the area. The 12z KSGF sounding
measured a 850mb temp of 19C which is near the daily record. A
strong elevated mixed layer/capping inversion was also present
which is why low/mid level clouds have been almost non
existent. There are some passing high clouds however temps so
far have been able to reach the upper 70s to around 80 across
most of the area.
A cold front was currently moving south towards the area and was
located from Kansas City to Wichita. Cooler temps and dews
followed behind this front. A secondary front was located
across the Dakotas and Minnesota and it had even drier air that
was moving southeast towards the region.
This afternoon through tonight: The first front will continue
moving into the area and will gradually switch winds to the
north with dropping temps and dewpoints. Low temps tonight
should drop into the 40s with a north wind and mostly clear
skies.
Sunday: A surface high pressure axis associated with that
secondary front and much drier air will slide southeast into
Iowa and Illinois. Northeast low level winds will usher in a
much drier airmass however it may not affect the entire area.
Dewpoints in the 20s and 30s are likely across most of the area
however areas further west may not drop as low. This will cause
humidity values to drop down into the 25-35% range however the
surface winds should remain less than 15kts. HREF guidance and
forecast soundings suggests mostly sunny skies with highs in
the 60s across the area. Locations near Rolla could stay closer
to 60 while areas south of Joplin may reach 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Monday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that the energy
currently off the California coast will eventually move through
the rockies and into Nebraska on Monday. Surface low pressure
looks to develop over Kansas with a front moving towards the
area. Winds ahead of the system will likely be out of the
southeast as the high pressure departs therefore some low level
moisture will attempt to return. A narrow tongue of 55deg dews
does look to move back into the area however not until Monday
night therefore moisture quality is in question with this
system. There is a signal of mean MU CAPE's approaching 1000jkg
therefore if enough moisture can arrive in time then a few
thunderstorms could occur, especially east of Highway 65. These
thunderstorms, if they occur would likely be elevated in nature
which typically features small hail. Otherwise a decent spread
in temps looks to occur Monday with highs around 60 east of
Springfield and highs around 70 near Joplin.
Tuesday: Ensembles have also converged on increasing mid level
heights and temps for Tuesday behind the passing mid level wave
and ahead of the next system. Mean 850mb temps look to increase
back into the 14-16C range which would support highs in the 70s
again and some high temp records may again be in jeopardy.
Wednesday through Friday: A strong upper level trough looks to
move into the southwest US on Wednesday, with a neutral to
positively tilted structure. This would put the area in
southwest flow aloft which in turn would allow for higher
moisture to move into the area along a baroclinic zone. Latest
ensemble means suggest PW values around 1.25inch which is near
the 90th percentile. The latest ECMWF EFI Shift of Tails tool
suggests the potential for an anomalously high precip event
somewhere in the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri region where
multiple rounds of rainfall occur. While the first round of
rainfall could occur as early as Wednesday, there are
indications that the heavier rounds could occur on Thursday as
the system begins to take on more of a negative tilt and ejects
northeast closer to the area. Latest NBM guidance has a 40-60%
chance of the area receiving at least 2 inches of rainfall with
this system. The exact footprint of the heaviest rainfall will
not be resolved until we get into higher resolution model
guidance time ranges early next week.
Looking at any severe potential, this type of setup is messy as
instability typically suffers with so much qpf. The joint
probabilities for surface based cape over 500j/kg and wind
shear over 30kts favors/is highest across Oklahoma and Arkansas
and not our area. However, if the system shifts north then
these probs would likely increase for the area and it will be
something we monitor over the coming days. Otherwise the above
normal temps should continue with highs in the 60s and 70s
depending on cloud cover/precip.
Ensemble variance is quite high beyond Thursday as another piece
of energy moves into the southwest US. We could see a few
drier/cooler days before this system moves in for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 428 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period. North-northwest winds at
the start of the forecast period will shift to northeast after
06Z, generally remaining less than 15 kt.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 57-60 degree range.
Record High Temperatures:
November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955
KUNO: 81/1955
November 18:
KSGF: 78/1930
KJLN: 76/1999
KVIH: 74/1981
KUNO: 74/2017
November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Burchfield
Office: EAX
FXUS63 KEAX 152325
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
...Updated 00z Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler on Sunday, though highs will still peak above-normal for
most locations.
- Precipitation chances return Monday with the best probabilities
(30-50%) across eastern areas.
- Above-normal temperatures are expected through much of the
upcoming week. A system is favored to return more widespread
rain chances by Thursday, though details are still uncertain
for now.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
A weak, dry cold front is pushing south through the area early this
afternoon. This is occurring as cyclonic flow returns to the
area, compressing the persistent ridge that has been over the
area this past week. Temperatures are only marginally cooler
than yesterday behind weak cold air advection, still about 20
degrees above normal for this time of year. While relative
humidity has dropped to the 30 percent range across western
areas this afternoon, fairly light wind will help mitigate fire
concerns today.
Sunday will be cooler behind the front, though with highs still
generally peaking 5 to 10 degrees above normal as the coldest air
misses the area well to the east. Dry air behind the front will
intrude as a surface high to our north brings in an easterly breeze.
Humidity will fall further, down to around 20 percent east of I-35.
Similar to today, however, wind will be light and fire concerns will
remain low.
The next chance of precipitation will come on Monday as the ridge
across the region finally relents to a compact, closed midlevel low.
A shortwave ahead of this feature will arrive first, bringing lower
PoPs (10-30%) Monday morning and afternoon, generally south of I-70.
The main trough will follow Monday evening as the midlevel low pulls
east over Nebraska. The timing of this system has it arriving
after the bulk of the moisture has already been advected past
the area, however, with the best upper level forcing displaced
to our north and east. This will likely mean the best rain
chances will similarly stay north and east of the area Monday
night. Accordingly, the best chances to see rain will generally
be along and east of Highway 65 Monday evening. A few
thunderstorms can be expected with CAPE values in the 200-300
J/kg range, though severe storms are not anticipated. Forecast
rain amounts remain low, generally only a tenth of an inch or
two.
Further out, ensemble guidance generally favors the more active
pattern to continue as a stronger trough moves onto the west coast
Tuesday and begins progressing east. This still appears most likely
to impact our area in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. While
certainty remains on the lower end, guidance suggests much stronger
gulf moisture advection which would lend to a more widespread rain
event, most likely on Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures will trend a
little cooler than they have been but generally remain above-normal
for much of the upcoming week. The potential late week system is
favored to bring cooler temperatures, but not cool enough for winter
impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
High level clouds will pass through this evening but conditions
will remain VFR. Surface layer should be dry enough to prevent
any fog despite periods of decent radiational cooling. Will
watch trends at the STJ terminal in the river valley. Winds
shift easterly by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Krull
