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Office: LSX

FXUS63 KLSX 210746
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
246 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

High pressure has settled over the Mid-Missouri Valley and will be
the focus for this forecast period. The clear skies and light winds
associated with the high have allowed temps to quickly fall this
morning, and as of 2 am, nearly all areas have fallen into the mid
to low 30s. With several hours remaining prior to sunrise, chances
look good for everyone to fall below freezing, so the Freeze Warning
seems to be in good shape.

NW flow in the wake of yesterday's shortwave will continue to usher
bone dry air into the region. The upper level flow will then turn
zonal this afternoon, shunting the surface high to the east,
swinging surface winds around to the SW. The SW flow coupled with
clear skies will allow for afternoon temperatures to rebound quite
well from this morning's freezing temperatures. Winds will be quite
a bit weaker than what we saw yesterday.

BSH

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Focus continues to be temps with precip chances late this week
diminishing.

Not a lot has changed through the forecast period compared 24 hours
ago. Models are still in generally good agreement through Wed.
Period begins with the sfc ridge over the CWA this morning building
southeast out of the region. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front just north
of the CWA will push south through the area on Mon as an upper level
trof approaches the Great Lakes region. As the sfc ridge builds into
the region behind this front, cooler temps are expected for Tues and
Wed. However, with weak CAA at the surface and heights rising over
the region, have trended toward the warmer guidance on Tues. With
easterly flow anticipated on Wed, have trended cooler.

The GEM becomes an outlier with a stronger sfc low on Thurs and have
trended toward a ECMWF/GFS compromise for Thurs and beyond.
Confidence in timing of precip late this week remains low due to
continued a lack of consistency from one cycle to the next. Have
therefore kept PoPs low across the region. With dry air in place and
weak forcing overall, the chance of precip is low regardless.

With a trof over the area late this week, expect temps to be below
seasonal average. Have held off making drastic changes to temps for
Sat at this time due to low confidence mentioned above. However, if
trends continue, going forecast is much too warm.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period
with clear skies expected.

A surface high pressure system will slide into the area overnight
bringing light and variable winds. The center of the high
pressure system will slide to the southeast of the area on Sunday
resulting in the development of south-southwest surface from
mid-morning into the afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period
with clear skies expected.

A surface high pressure system will slide into the area overnight
bringing light and variable winds. The center of the high
pressure system will slide to the southeast of the area on Sunday
resulting in the development of light south-southwest surface
by midday.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     55  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          54  40  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        57  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  57  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           52  37  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      54  37  65  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis
     City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Bond IL-Clinton
     IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



Office: SGF FXUS63 KSGF 210714 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Today will start with morning temperatures in the lower 30s to middle 20s with a hard freeze expected. This hard freeze will likely end the growing season across most or all of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. The surface high over the Ozarks will keep skies clear and light northerly winds in place as we move into today. The clear skies and sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the 50s to around 60 degrees this afternoon. With light winds continuing, it will be a pleasant day. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather as we start the coming work week with reinforcing rounds of high pressure through the middle of the week. We will be near seasonable normals to start the week with a cool down expected for wednesday and Thursday thanks to an upper level short wave which may bring some light rain showers as well. The upper level pattern will become more northwesterly for the end of the week with a better chance for rainfall coming Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 KSGF/KBBG/KJLN tafs: VFR with sfc high pressure drifting through then southeast of the region during the taf period. Light winds will gradually veer to the south. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...DSA
Office: EAX FXUS63 KEAX 210821 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018 No significant changes to the forecast. Surface high pressure has settled over the central US providing clear skies and light winds which will allow temperatures to drop near 30F for many areas and even upper 20s for north central Missouri. As the high slides eastward winds will eventually shift from the south during the day on Sunday and into Monday providing enough WAA to raise temperatures a few degrees. By Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a weak cold front will push through the area. However, with very limited moisture, a slight increase in clouds and winds shifting from the north will be the only results. Precip chances for Wednesday evening still look limited. Upper level support is fairly unimpressive and while the GFS and ECMWF agree on a chance of light precip, they vary on timing and location. That said, clouds will increase on Wednesday into Thursday, but any precip that falls will be light and short lived. The early part of the weekend still look like the best chance for any meaningful precipitation across the CWA. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018 VFR conditions expected with clear skies through the period. Light winds overnight will increase slightly after sunrise to late in the morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Cutter/Otto Aviation...CDB