mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 022357
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
zero morning of the season coming Thursday.
- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
with a pair of weak clipper systems.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Taking a look at satellite over southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin this afternoon, a lower stratus deck is clearing the
area into central Wisconsin. These clouds were saturated in the
dendritic growth zone, meaning flurries were falling pretty much
anywhere there was this lower cloud cover. A dusting was
reported at a few locations, but nothing significant in terms of
accumulation resulted from those flurries. The sun has since
peeked out along the MN/WI border. Mid to high level clouds
are moving in, meaning the clear skies will be brief, with MSP
already reporting scattered clouds at 15,000ft. Temperatures are
holding in the upper teens to low 20s, with slightly warmer
temps in the areas with the aforementioned stratus hanging on.
The better chance for a trace to few tenths of snow
accumulation will arrive later tonight as a surface low swings
in from the Dakotas. The associated fronts and modest swath of
moisture will likely be enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours tomorrow.
Little snow accumulation is expected with this system, but
scattered trace to few tenths of snowfall are possible when you
wake up tomorrow morning. Looking ahead, this pattern of light
snow events looks to continue through the period. The AIFS
depicts several chances for low-end, but measurable, snow
events through the forecast period. This is in line with the
upper-level pattern that other models are forecasting. The most
impactful shortwave appears to be this weekend, with agreement
in the presence of precip, but disagreement in exact placement.
The temperatures can be forecast with more certainty as an
appreciable surge of cold air will scoop south. Even with
clearing skies due to high pressure moving in Wednesday into
Thursday, 850mb temps drop as low as 15C to 20C below zero.
This will translate to highs on Wednesday in the single digits
to the teens followed by possibly record-low minimum
temperatures early Thursday morning (between 10 to 15 degrees F
below zero). The Twin Cities Metro area will be spared from the
coldest temps, bottoming out around 8 below zero due to the
Urban Heat Island. Beyond Thursday morning, there is no sign of
any appreciable warm up. Overnight lows in the single digits and
afternoon highs in the teens to low 20s through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
A broad area of light snow upstream over eastern Dakotas &
western Minnesota this evening. Snow chances are tied to a
surface cold front that will move through tonight and usher in
colder/drier air by daybreak Wednesday. A 4 to 6 hour period of
light snow appears likely with cigs & vsby dipping to MVFR. MVFR
cigs remain through daybreak before scattering out by mid-
morning Wednesday. Winds turn to the SW then NW after the
frontal passage tonight. Northwest winds with gusts up to 20
kts on Wednesday. Current forecast guidance supports a several
hour window of light snow. Snowfall amounts will remain light,
generally a quarter to a half inch, but could lead to some
impacts.
Interestingly enough UP has been reported across W/SW
MN & we've had reports of graupel & snow pellets. We'll keep an
eye on p-types but -SN should be dominant P-type. Freezing
drizzle potential remains low, but non-zero. Current thought is that
any FZDZ remains tied to the sfc boundary & should remain brief
in nature. Wednesday afternoon & evening should remain VFR &
dry. Wind gusts will fall off late afternoon and remain
northwesterly.
KMSP... Cigs lower with light snow arriving later this evening.
High confidence of light snow tonight. Our latest forecast
supports the potential for a 0.25-0.5" coating of snow
accumulation tonight. Freezing drizzle potential remains low,
but non- zero. and likely to our southwest.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 5-15kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...BPH
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 022347
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
547 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is expected tonight. Most places less than an
inch, but up to 2-3 inches in northern Iron County.
- A cold and blustery Wednesday followed by below-zero low
temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Wind chills
as low as -20 to -25 are expected and localized -30 values
are possible.
- Cold weather with intermittent light snow chances are
expected for the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Southwesterly flow with warm air advection continues this
afternoon ahead of a cold front that will pass through tonight.
We've had some light fog and flurries with this air mass, and
that is expected to transition more into light snow going into
this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast as the
cold front quickly passes through. Not much has changed with
this update as far as snowfall amounts; just a very tiny nudge
upward in QPF and resultant snowfall amounts. There won't be
much moisture to work with and the front will pass by so quickly
that most places will pick up a dusting to around an inch. The
best lift will be over the Arrowhead and into ~Iron County, so
some locally higher amounts are possible there. Perhaps up to 2"
around Grand Marais and to around 3" around Hurley (HREF
probabilities are ~50% for 3" or more there).
Winds become blustery quickly following the cold front and
plenty of much colder (and drier) air will move in from the
northwest for Wednesday. For most places, Wednesday's highs will
probably happen at midnight with temperatures roughly remaining
steady in the single digits to teens above zero in the
afternoon. There is some question about lingering snow showers
in the post-cold frontal cold air advection regime. I kept some
flurries through the night and into the morning, but ending
after that. Several CAMs hint at some lake- effect snow bands
forming off the larger lakes, and the instability will certainly
be there for that with the cold air moving in. Dry air moving
in may reduce chances for this along with ice cover increasing
on these lakes. Some light accumulations downwind of the large
lakes can't be ruled out, but it shouldn't be much. It will be
these places where around an inch or perhaps very slightly
higher amounts may be possible when all is said and done on
Wednesday.
Attention then turns to the cold night expected Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as high pressure passes by to our south
and the coldest air settles over us. At this time, it's still
looking like most places will be just a bit warmer than criteria
to warrant Cold Weather Advisories given that we may have some
wind that could keep temperatures from falling colder than they
otherwise could. If winds end up being less, temperatures could
fall a bit lower than currently forecast, though we would have
less of a wind chill to worry about. All-in-all, a cold Thursday
morning is expected and it's possible that some of the usual
cold spots may see some wind chills briefly reaching down to -25
to -30.
A west-northwest flow pattern is looking to stick around for
the foreseeable future. Another clipper and cold front could
arrive Thursday night and bring another round of light snow.
There could be several more chances for that going into the
weekend and early next week. Some more potent shortwaves may be
possible next week, bringing more of the same but possibly with
some slightly higher snow accumulations if the trend right now
remains the same.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
A weak clipper will bring light snow to the terminals tonight.
Visibility at INL was as low as 3/4 miles this afternoon. Think
the next burst of snow this evening will produce MVFR
visibility. Dry air in place ahead of the system is making it
tough for snow to reach the ground. Most of the radar returns
over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as of 2330Z
were virga. MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibility is expected
with the light snow tonight. Precipitation tapers off by 03.12Z
as the system departs to the east. Flight conditions are
forecast to improve, however, the Arctic air advancing into the
area may keep MVFR stratus in the picture through the day.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Breezy southwest winds will continue this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 kt are expected at times,
and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. A very brief lull in
winds is expected this evening before the cold front passes
through, then winds are expected to increase in speed from the
northwest. 25-30 kt gusts are expected Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed, but we
will hold off on issuing those until after current ones expire.
There does remain a rather small (~10% chance) for gales mainly
in the outer Apostle Islands for a brief period Wednesday
evening, but more likely winds will remain just below that
criteria. Expect wave heights to increase up to around 7 ft
around the outer Apostle Islands as well.
Winds will switch to southwesterly again on Thursday with wind
gusts quickly increasing Thursday into Thursday night. Gales are
more likely (~40-60% chance), and wave heights around 6-8 ft
will be possible especially for parts of the North Shore. Wind
speeds are expected to decrease on Friday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
140>148.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...JDS
