Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 061732
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1132 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow expected to arrive around midday today in western MN,
spreading southeast into early Sunday morning. Several inches
of snow accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower
amounts to the north.
- Cold and dry to end the weekend with highs only in the single
digits in MN on Sunday.
- A couple of chances of snow the first half of next week, with
the most significant chance being Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Cloudy skies have limited how much we've cooled off overnight with
temperatures still in the upper teens to lower 20s early this
morning. Temperatures won't warm much today as overcast skies will
remain. The clipper system for Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night is the main concern in the short-term. With the latest
guidance tracking the 700 hPa low from YNK/FSD to DSM, have leaned
heavily to a more southern solution with the prevailing swath of
snow. The ECMWF and ECMWF-AIFS are both in this camp and the ECMWF-
AIFS has done remarkably well with other snowfall events so far this
winter. Our latest forecast gives 4-6" across extreme southern MN, 1-
2" on a line from CNB-RWF-MKT-FBL, and then an inch or less to the
north (includes the Twin Cities). Have opted to keep headlines the
same, though, the northern-most tier of counties in the Winter
Weather Advisory are flirting with not being warranted.
Snowfall rates could reach 1-1.5" per hour, particularly along
I-90 and south, but luckily this system will be moving from west
to east pretty quickly such that these higher rates will only
last an hour or two. Snow should end pretty quickly from west to
east early Sunday morning as the clipper moves into the
Midwest.
Cold air will immediately follow the clipper with Saturday night's
lows dropping to -10 F in western MN to near 0 in west-central WI.
Northerly winds will be just enough that western MN should see wind
chills near -20 F by sunrise Sunday. Sunday will be dry as surface
high pressure slides overhead but temperatures will struggle to warm
with highs only reaching the single digits in MN. Low to mid teens
are forecast for our WI counties. Another cold night is expected
Sunday night with lows within 5 degrees of 0. Low-level WAA will
begin Monday as the next clipper in the wave train approaches.
Temperatures will moderate Monday with highs in the 20s to even
lower 30s possible in western MN. Guidance favors the track of the
aforementioned clipper passing from northern MN into WI. This track
would keep most of the snow to our north, but our northern and
northeastern counties could see a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow
by Tuesday morning.
While Monday's clipper doesn't appear to be too significant, the
clipper forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night continues to be the one
to monitor in the long-range. Deterministic guidance shows a compact
shortwave with a strong mid-level vorticity maximum following an
upper-level jetstreak. A deepening surface low should evolve
ahead of these features, tracking southeast from ND into MN and
then WI. Exactly where remains in question, but the EPS has
trended with a deeper trough and a more southern low track over
the last several runs. I-94 and areas north would be favored for
accumulating snow with this solution. The EPS-AIFS is even
slightly farther south compared to the EPS, driving the swath
of snow through the heart of our CWA. Meanwhile, the GEFS is
much farther north with the surface low track but has been
coming around to a deeper upper-level trough in recent runs. We
will continue to watch this system as we could either get a
quick thump of accumulating (to potentially significant) snow.
Or, the surface low could be far enough north (like the GEFS
solution) to where we are stuck in mild, above freezing
temperatures. Following this system, guidance favors another
blast of cold air for the latter half of next week with strong
surface high pressure sliding southeast from the western
Canadian Prairies. A break from our more active pattern looks
like a good possibility Wednesday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
The heaviest snow with this system will track across Iowa & SW
Minnesota. Lighter snow up into southern MN and RWF/MKT areas
with a few inches of accumulation. Latest radar & guidance
trends look to keep MSP and terminals north mostly dry. I have
kept a period of MVFR snow in at MSP for now. Late tonight,
skies are expected to clear out from west to east. For winds,
speeds will be under 10 kts this period. We'll see directions
become NNE this morning, turning back to the NNW overnight.
KMSP...Recent obs upstream show light snow, but radar trends
indicate the primary system across SW MN will remain to the
south of MSP terminal. There is still a window of light snow
likely, falling between the 21z to 4z window. Accumulations
appear to be less than half an inch of new snow.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late night. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN in mrng. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Blue
Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-
Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BPH
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 061725
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1125 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Arctic air for the weekend will keep highs in the single digits to
low teens with overnight lows below zero.
- Active weather next week with multiple systems passing through
the region. The Tuesday into Wednesday system currently looks
to be the most impactful with the potential for heavy snowfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Current Conditions/Weekend:
An arctic air mass located over Alberta continues to flex its
influence over the region this morning with surface ridging
extending down into the Upper Midwest. Cold air will continuously
pour over the region with highs today struggling to get out of the
teens. With the cold air seeping over the region combined with
northwest flow we can still expect some snow showers downstream of
the bigger inland lakes, particularly up along the International
Border. And of course, we can't forget about the South Shore. More
lake effect snow showers for those counties as well. This forecast
package did go ahead and bump snow totals up a smidge. Totals
through tomorrow are now around a couple of inches, which by South
Shore standards is hardly noticeable.
The arctic air mass sinks its way into the Red River Valley
bringing some drier air and some sunnier conditions on Sunday.
Despite the mostly sunny skies even colder air will infiltrate
the region with highs largely in the single digits for MN and in
the teens for NW WI. The dry air in the lower levels will
eventually help to shut off the lake effect snow showers across
Ashland and Iron in the evening hours.
Active Pattern Next Week:
Round One:
Monday the arctic air mass begins to exit to the east with southerly
flow returning to the region. Some light snow will be possible
through the day as the surface convergence lines up with a weak
shortwave passing overhead. This light snow is expected in the
morning but more snow is expected in the evening hours. A weak
Alberta clipper looks to dive into MN by 9PM with fairly high
agreement among the GEFS and Euro surface low tracks. This system
will sport some increased QPF paired with a small area of increased
lift leading to some moderate snowfall rates. Most of this snow
looks to fall in the overnight period with the Arrowhead and
Borderlands likely seeing the bulk of the accumulation. The
latest trends with this first system have pushed the track
slightly farther north and increased snowfall totals. We are now
seeing probabilities around 20-40% chance for seeing 4" in the
aforementioned areas.
Round Two:
The more impressive system will be the second one slotted to come
through Tuesday. While this is another system out of Alberta this
low is projected to be a 980-990mb depending on which model you
are looking at. This one also looks to carry more Pacific
moisture with it. An impressive atmospheric river is expected to
impact the Pacific NW on Monday and this system looks to siphon
some of that moisture and deposit it into the Northland. PWATs
are projected to increase 0.50" The 00Z suite of deterministic
guidance boasts some impressive forcing mechanics in play for
this system with a strong signal in both QG vectors and
differential vorticity. These synoptic features joined with some
enhanced FGEN bands may lead to some very heavy snowfall rates.
With all that being said there is still plenty of time for the
track of the system to change. While there is fairly good
agreement this far out from both sets of ensembles there is a
small cluster of lows that are lagging behind the main cluster
which may impact the overall timing of when this system arrives.
But overall, the probabilities for widespread impactful snow
continues to increase. The previous guidance had 30-50% chance
of greater than 4" it is now up to 40-60%.
Round 3?
The main system of the week (round 2) should exit Wednesday
afternoon with lingering lake effect snow showers for the South
Shore. Possibly hot on its heels may be round 3. Still a great deal
of uncertainty with this clipper system and it may dive far enough
south that we won't see too much of an impact. For now, the latest
deterministic guidance doesn't show this clipper packing as much of
a punch as Tuesday's system. And given the spread in solutions at
this time we are only carrying a 20% chance for snow at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Light lake-effect snow showers/SCT to BKN MVFR cloud bases
persist downwind of the bigger inland lakes today, especially
in far northern Minnesota as evidenced by satellite and
observations. These clouds and possibly (10-20% chance) for very
light snow could impact INL/HIB this afternoon and evening,
though the current northwest wind direction has kept the
coverage of MVFR ceilings and light snow east of those
terminals. Farther south, BRD and HYR continue to see VFR
ceilings around 3500-5000 ft this afternoon on the northern edge
of a cloud shield associated with low pressure passing well to
the south. Expect these ceilings to lift higher this evening,
with some clearing of cloud cover tonight into Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Northwest winds today continue with the windiest conditions expected
this morning. Small Craft Advisories will fully drop off after 9AM.
Quiet conditions for Sunday before the weather become very active
for the work week. Multiple clipper systems are set to impact the
region with the Tuesday into Wednesday system looking to be a
prolific snow producer. Gusty conditions will once again return on
Monday and we may see some Gales associated with the stronger system
for Wednesday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Britt
