mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 290757
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers over eastern-southern MN will end this morning,
followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies through the weekend.
- A few sprinkles/flurries possible late Thursday night through
the day Friday, but better chances for rain come Sunday into
Monday.
- Temperatures to run generally near normal through the first
half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Surface analysis early this morning shows a nearly north-south
oriented stalled (and dissipating) front sitting over eastern
MN, aligned nearly atop the entire length of the Mississippi
River to the western Gulf, with a main low pressure center near
STL. Expansive high pressure sits centered over the central
Rockies, having its influence as far east as the Northern-
Central Plains. Aloft, a highly-amplified trough continues to
dig south across the Northern Plains while a bubble ridge sits
over the northeast CONUS and longwave ridging encompasses the
western Lower 48.
As the day progresses today, the western ridge will slide
eastward across the Rockies while the northeast upper high
retrogrades westward over the Great Lakes. This combination will
essentially shut down the impacts of the aforementioned stalled
front, washing it out, and shifting the precipitation farther
south into the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Thus, the
lingering showers ongoing early this morning over eastern-
southern MN will steadily come to an end by sunrise. Leftover
cloud cover will remain in place over much of the WFO MPX
coverage area today, as will a west-to-east temperature
gradient. Cooler air filtering in behind the decaying front will
keep highs in the upper 40s for western MN while highs creep
into the low-mid 50s for eastern MN into western WI.
The upper ridge will become compressed across the area tonight
into Thursday and exit to the east late day Thursday while
another upper level low drops in from the northeast. In
conjunction with this upper low will be a weak frontal system
moving into the region, the origins of which are currently
moving onshore the PacNW this morning and will shift across the
northern Rockies tonight, then move across the Upper Midwest
Thursday night through Friday. A reinforcing shot of colder air
will accompany this system, bumping highs from around 50 on
Thursday to the 40s Friday-Saturday. Similarly, lows after this
morning will run in the 30s from early Thursday morning onward
for the rest of this forecast period. Thus, the coinciding weak
precipitation potential for Thursday night into Friday will take
the form of sprinkles/flurries, if any precip occurs at all
given the nearly nil QPF and weakening progression of the
incoming system. Overall, impacts will be very low.
A better signal for precipitation looks to come Sunday into
Monday with a very stretched-out longwave trough moving across
the northern tier states. However, continued limited moisture
and weak support both at the surface and aloft will keep precip
chances no higher than Chance category and QPF only a few
hundredths of an inch at best.
Temperatures look to run generally close to normal through early
next week. Temperatures may run a bit cooler than currently
advertised due the greater potential of lingering cloud cover
for the rest of this week into early next week as opposed to
more sun than clouds. For now, have opted to run with the
blended NBM guidance and see if it takes the cooler trend in
later model runs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Latest radar returns indicate light rain has began to shift
south and taper off. Any -RA will end shortly after TAF
issuance time. Cigs remain the primary forecast concern this
evening as there is a band of MVFR with patchy IFR stratus from
N MN stretching south through central & southern MN and into
Iowa. Skies will be slow to lift & scatter after daybreak but
should by mid-afternoon. Both RNH and EAU should stay dry with
solid VFR conditions throughout the period. Winds will remain
northerly throughout the period with speeds becoming light
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
KMSP...Latest hi-res guidance favor low-end VFR cigs rather
than high-end MVFR tonight. I cannot rule out a brief stint of
MVFR cigs just prior to day break so I've added a tempo group
for now. If trends do not favor MVFR cigs - I will opt to remove
it at the 09Z AMD. VFR after daybreak.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BPH
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 290655
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
155 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slow-moving system will bring chances for light rain, mostly
just dribbles, starting Thursday afternoon and continuing
through Friday night.
- Cooler air arrives for the weekend, which could lead to lake-
effect showers late Friday and Saturday morning, possibly
including a few wet snowflakes or snow pellets on the South
Shore.
- This benign pattern continues next week though we'll be
warmer.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
After a cloudy (and locally foggy) start for some, Wednesday
looks to be a quiet and pleasant day for the Northland as we sit
in a brief calm patch between weather systems, which should
allow for some sunshine. There's quite a bit of disagreement
among short term models on handling moisture this morning and
today with some persisting the low clouds, but in this forecast
I went more optimistic trending towards the majority of
guidance. May need to keep an eye out for dense fog this
morning, there's some out there, but not widespread and
persistent enough to warrant headlines...yet.
Our next weather-maker is set to arrive on Thursday. This system
will move in slowly from the west-northwest, bringing chances for
light rain back to the area. A few showers could pop up as early
as Thursday afternoon, but the most likely time for light rain
(emphasizing light since it will just be dribbles) will be from
Thursday night through Friday night. As this system moves away
to the southeast on Friday, cooler air will begin to move in from
the north.
This cooler air moving over the relatively warm waters of Lake
Superior could trigger some lake-enhanced rain showers late Friday
and into Saturday morning. It might even get cold enough for a few
snow pellets or wet snowflakes to mix in, but temperatures should
stay just warm enough to prevent any accumulation. Overall, rainfall
amounts from this system are expected to be light, with most places
seeing less than a tenth of an inch. After any lingering morning
showers, high pressure looks to build in for Saturday afternoon,
bringing a return to quiet weather for the weekend. Temperatures
will remain seasonably cool, with highs on Saturday in the low
to mid-40s warming into the mid-40s and low-50s by Sunday, with
overnight lows hovering right around the freezing mark. Another
quick-moving system could bring more light rain chances late Sunday
into Monday, followed by cooler northwest flow. I wouldn't be too
surprised to see this pattern of weak systems continue through
early next week with strong zonal flow. Above normal temperatures
return next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Quite a bit of uncertainty in the handling of cigs and vsbys in
model guidance through the TAF period. Satellite imagery shows
disparate fields of either fog or stratus that expand, contract,
and move around. Went middle of the road in TAF conditions, but
it is a very wide road, so low confidence overall. There are
definitely signals for ifr fog/stratus across the MN Arrowhead
overnight with still some signal through the day Wednesday but
sided with a more optimistic approach for the daytime hours.
Winds remain calm to light tonight, then turning north to
northeast and remain light on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Mariners on western Lake Superior can expect continued quiet
conditions through Wednesday night, with light winds generally
coming from the northeast. Winds will begin to shift on
Thursday, turning briefly to the southwest and then becoming
variable as a passing weather system moves through. Looking
ahead, boaters should be aware that stronger winds are possible
early next week.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
