Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 020848
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
248 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
zero morning of the season coming Thursday.
- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
with a pair of weak clipper systems
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Surface analysis early this morning shows relatively north-
south oriented high pressure over the central CONUS, including
an inverted trough extending northward into MN, along with a low
pressure center over southern Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a
longwave trough is just east of MN/WI, extending SSW from Hudson
Bay to the Mississippi River Delta while prolonged northwest
flow stretches all the way to the Gulf of Alaska. This trough is
evident on IR/GeoColor satellite imagery with much of western
MN in clear skies while far eastern MN through much of WI still
has low stratus in place. This is creating quite the temperature
difference in that western MN already has temperatures in the
single digits while those sites under the stratus hold in the
teens.
Even with partial clearing later today, cold temperatures will
remain in place due to the long pathway for arctic air to drop
into the region. Highs will remain in the 20s area-wide. The
first of several weak clipper-type waves will drop southeast
through the region tonight. The aforementioned low over western
Canada will slide into northern MN this afternoon then drive ESE
into northern WI this evening. Its associated fronts and modest
swath of moisture may be just enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected with this system.
Behind it, an appreciable surge of frigid air is expected to
plunge into the Upper Midwest. Even with clearing skies for
Wednesday- Thursday with high pressure moving in, H85 temps late
Wed into early Thu drop to as low as -15C to -20C. This will
then translate to highs on Wed in the single digits to the teens
followed by possibly record-low minimum temperatures early
Thursday morning down into the negative middle teens.
Some temperatures recovery will take place Thursday through
Friday as another clipper system approaches from the northwest
Friday, placing the Upper Midwest in a relative "warm" sector.
That said, chances increase a bit for additional scattered snow
showers Friday as that low drifts across Northern MN, only to be
followed by another low from the Dakotas into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. This second low has taken
a weaker look among the models from this time yesterday, but
still warrants "Chance" PoP mention for light snow over mainly
the southern half of the WFO MPX coverage area. Same as the
system for today, little if any accumulation is expected from
these weak systems Friday-Saturday.
Highs to drop back into the teens Saturday-Sunday with the
passage of these weak waves, then slowly recover back to the
20s for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
For eastern MN and WI, low stratus will continue to persist with
MVFR likely through tonight. A reduction to IFR is expected
around 12Z and should last thru the rest of Tuesday morning. For
most terminals to the west (except RWF), mostly clear skies
will provide strong radiational cooling and another round of low
cigs and mist early this morning. Currently have the worst
conditions expected at AXN where LIFR looks likely with
visibilities down to 1sm and cigs near 400 feet. A west-to-east
improvement to VFR is likely from late morning into the
afternoon. However, a cold front from the west Tuesday evening
will drop cigs to at least MVFR. Have added PROB30s at all
terminals for the chance of -SHSN and reduced visibilities.
Light southwesterly winds turn southerly Tuesday morning with
speeds increasing to 5-10 knots. Winds turn northwesterly once
the frontal passage occurs.
KMSP...Kept TEMPO from 06-10Z for periods of VFR cigs due to
breaks in stratus. Regeneration of the low stratus seems
probable with IFR cigs and perhaps even some light mist after
11Z. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid-afternoon. The cold
front should pass thru MSP near 05-06Z Wednesday with chances
for snow showers in the few hours around it. Cigs should fall to
MVFR/IFR after the front.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 021145
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries continue this morning before better chances for light
snow showers move through this afternoon into tonight.
- Breezy northwest winds Wednesday bring cooler air to the
region with lows Thursday morning falling below zero.
- Periodic chances for light snow showers persists through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Southwesterly flow across the region early this morning was
leading to light snow flurries with isentropic lift in place. A
trough was analyzed from north-central Minnesota into
northwestern Iowa, southeastern Nebraska and central Kansas. An
area of low pressure was located over central Saskatchewan with
a warm front extending southeastward into the western Dakotas.
This low will move southeasterly today and tonight through the
Upper Midwest and bring chances for widespread snow showers to
the Northland. However, this clipper will be moisture starved,
so snowfall amounts will be minimal. Most of the region will see
around an inch or less with the highest amounts along the
International Border. Some lake enhancement will also occur
along the South Shore in northern Iron County were an inch or
two will be possible through Wednesday morning. Highs today will
be in the teens and 20s with lows tonight falling into the teens
and single digits above zero as colder air starts to filter into
the Northland.
Cold high pressure will move into the Northern Plains Wednesday
bringing northwesterly winds and cold air advection to the
Northland. Gusty winds to 20 to 25 mph are expected through the
day Wednesday before diminishing Wednesday night as the high
passes to the south. Highs Wednesday will likely be early in the
day as the cold air arrives, although a slight bump in
temperatures during the day in areas that see sun will be
possible, especially across the St. Croix Valley. Temperatures
will be in the low teens and single digits through much of the
day. Heading into Wednesday night, winds will weaken allowing
temperatures to drop into the teens and single digits below
zero. The coldest temperatures will be from central into east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where clearing skies
are expected. Wind chills are currently expected to remain just
above Cold Weather Advisory level, but if winds stay a bit
stronger or more clearing than expected occurs, advisories may
be needed.
A northwest flow pattern will keep the cold temperatures and
periodic chances for snow in place through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. These will likely be moisture starved
clipper systems, so any accumulations will likely be minimal.
One of these systems will move through for Thursday night into
Friday, but predictability decreases for the weekend. What is
certain is that the cold temperatures will stick around through
the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures look to warm
into the 20s by the end of the week before another shot of cold
air drops highs back into the teens for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Low stratus and snow flurries are leading to a mix of MVFR and
IFR conditions this morning. The snow flurries may continue
through much of the day before a cold front moves through this
afternoon and evening bringing better chances for snow showers.
VSBYs will likely remain VFR to MVFR with the snow showers but
may drop to IFR at INL and HYR. CIGs will improve to MVFR by
early to mid afternoon and remain there for the remainder of the
period. INL will likely lift to VFR late tonight in the wake of
the front. Winds will pick up behind the front and turn
northwesterly with gusts to 15 to 20 knots. With limited
moisture available, the snow will be light and fluffy in
characteristic.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
A clipper will approach western Lake Superior this afternoon
leading to increasing southwesterly winds at 10 to 20 knots.
Gusts to 25 to 30 knots will be possible across the Outer
Apostle Islands and from Grand Marais to Grand Portage along
with building waves in these areas as well this afternoon and
evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for these
areas. Winds will become northwesterly in the wake of the front
late tonight and increase for Wednesday and Wednesday night with
widespread winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 35 knots.
Additional advisories will likely be needed.
Another clipper system will move through for Thursday night into
Friday will bring a period of strong winds. Winds will
strengthen from the southwest as the system approaches and then
veer northwesterly behind a cold front Thursday night and
Friday. In the wake of the cold front, winds will strengthen
further. There is a 30-60% chance of gales to 35 knots over much
of the North Shore waters during that time.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CST this evening
for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight
for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
