mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 042040
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Accumulating snow and slick travel conditions likely along and
north of I-94 Friday. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected.
- Another storm system will produce accumulating snow and
travel impacts across southern MN on Saturday.
- Sub-zero morning lows return for the end of the weekend,
followed by yet another storm system with the potential for
mixed precipitation early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Our first widespread sub-zero morning of the cold season saw
temperatures dip as low as -15 or so across portions of central MN.
Fortunately, the duration of the coldest air is rather short-lived
thanks to an increase in southerly winds this afternoon. The center
of the Arctic high that supported the early December cold blast has
drifted southeast over the southern Great Lakes. Mid-level warm
advection is ongoing within a tightening pressure gradient to the
west of the surface high and south of a clipper currently digging
into northeastern MN. Surface temperatures are inching closer to the
double digits above zero with each passing hour and look to run in a
non-dirunal pattern through the rest of the night. In other words,
evening temperatures in the low teens will be cooler than the
temperatures around daybreak Friday, which are forecast to be in the
low 20s.
Our attention turns to an active clipper train that is ongoing
within the northwesterly flow aloft. Much of the precipitation
associated with the aforementioned clipper will remain north of our
forecast area tonight, though portions of western WI may see
some flakes from this wave. Confidence has increased that a
trailing clipper, currently crossing the International border
over MT, will dig southeast across the Dakotas tonight and bring
accumulating snow to the region tomorrow. There is still some
uncertainty with the track of the clipper, as evidenced by the
12z guidance suite. Most of the HREF members and the operational
RAP advertise the main swath of snow tracking along and north
of I-94 through central MN. On the other hand, there are some
guidance members (AIFS/operational Euro) which are a bit farther
south with the main swath and place the main band of snow from
say Swift county to the ESE through the heart of the Twin
Cities. Despite this uncertainty in the exact track, the upward
trend in QPF and deep saturation on forecast soundings has resulted
in an uptick in the snow forecast (1-3") and PoPs (Now 70-80
percent across central MN) through the day tomorrow. Our snow
forecast is a product of up to ~0.1-0.15" liquid in the main snow
band and event SLR's ~15:1, which supports the 1-3" range. While
somewhat muted, there looks to be at least some frontogenic component
to the forcing in the 850mb level, so the potential for a localized
band of 2-4" does exist (and right now looks to be most likely
along the WFO MPX/DLH border. Snow is forecast to begins across
west central MN shortly before daybreak and continue to spread east
through the morning. Average snowfall rates between 0.25"-0.5"/hr
(per the HREF) will support the potential for travel conditions
to become slick through the morning. Snow will end from west to
east tomorrow afternoon, but it is likely that locations under
the heaviest band will still have some slick spots for the
evening commute. Finally, forecast soundings across south/southwestern
MN illustrate the loss of cloud ice in association with mid-
level dry air. With synoptic lift present, we could see a localized
freezing drizzle scenario develop. We have opted to leave any
mention out of the grids this afternoon, however we'll treat
this part of the forecast as a bit of wild card tomorrow.
No headline is planned at this time, though we'll leave the
potential for a short advisory on the table depending on what the
evening/night shift observes in the 18z/00z model suites.
The forecast remains active heading into this weekend as a Pacific
influenced shortwave digs southeast along a baroclinic zone from MT
towards IA. Guidance has come into better agreement with the
anticipated track of the wave which supports a swath of accumulating
snow from eastern SD/southwestern MN/northern IA. Since this system
has more of a Pacific influence to it, it's no surprise to see
higher moisture content resulting in a greater potential for
accumulating snow. An initial call would support 3-5" of snow along I-
90, with amounts falling off to about a half inch to an inch as far
north as the Twin Cities. Folks traveling south this weekend should
keep an eye on the latest information as travel is likely to be
impacted from falling/accumulating snow. The low is forecast to
continue to the southeast towards the Ohio Valley. As this occurs,
northwesterly flow will usher in another anomalous air mass from
southern Canada which will drop surface temperatures below zero
Sunday and Monday morning. It's likely that Sunday's afternoon highs
will struggle to warm above the single digits!
Our very active upper level pattern will send another storm system
into the northern CONUS in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Mid-
level warm advection of a thermal ridge will warm temperatures to
near/above freezing at 925/850mb heading into Tuesday. Should these
trends continue, the Tuesday/Wednesday system will likely have some
p-type issues given the marginal nature of the thermal
profiles. Plenty of time to better define the setup, but one
things is for sure: Our forecast remains active and wintry
through at least mid- December!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Clouds are beginning their approach ahead of our Clipper system.
KAXN has already gone MVFR and KRWF should follow shortly. MVFR
cigs will continue to spread east through this afternoon for our
Minnesota terminals with south-southwesterly winds 10-15kts with
occasional gusts up to 25kts. Winds decrease overnight to 10kts
or less.
Biggest change for this TAF set is that confidence has
increased in some snow by tomorrow morning for most sites.
Confidence is lower for KRWF and KMKT as the overall track for
the Clipper basically sends it right down I-94. Timing has been
a bit slower with the 12z models, so will need to monitor this
for the next cycle to see if snow onset timing needs to be
adjusted further. Expecting a solid chunk of the morning to be
IFR with the potential for some TEMPO LIFR. Snow ends from west
to east with winds turning to the northwest on the backside.
KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected by this evening and will continue
to fall overnight. Snow should hold off until after 12z,
decided to go with a 14z start time. Guidance is still a little
all over the board with start/end times, so went more
pessimistic with the snow not ending until 21z tomorrow. This
will be refined in the coming updates.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SN early, bcmg VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc MVFR w/-SN. Wind S 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 042337
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
537 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow showers arrive today and tonight in the Borderlands and
along the North Shore, where localized heavier amounts are
possible.
- A second round of light snow is forecast for Friday along our
south which will lead to a couple inches for east central
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
- Colder than average temperatures continue for the weekend
with overnight lows dropping below zero and daytime highs
remaining in the single digits and teens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
The Northland will experience active weather over the next
couple of days, starting with a weather system that is expected
to bring light snow showers today. Snow showers are fighting dry
air, so only flurries are being observed currently, but will
increase in intensity throughout the late afternoon and
evening. While overall accumulations will be minor - up to an
inch, the area near the North Shore of Lake Superior may see
the highest totals, possibly reaching 3 inches..
Another low pressure system will track south of our region on
Friday morning, bringing another chance for accumulating snow,
particularly across our southern forecast area, including east
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Current forecast
guidance suggests these areas could receive 2 to 3 inches of
snow, potentially impacting morning and afternoon travel.
Further north, totals are expected to be lighter, with only a
trace expected in the Iron Range. This system will move off to
the east by Friday night, but an incoming cold air mass behind
the system will cause lake effect snow in Iron County. This lake
effect snow is expected to linger as late as early Sunday
morning, continuing until the air over Lake Superior becomes too
dry to produce snow showers. Following the end of the lake
effect snow, the fresh surge of cold air will settle into the
rest of the Northland for the weekend. This will lead to a
significant drop in temperatures, with readings up to 15 degrees
below normal on both Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the
teens and single digits, while overnight lows will be below zero
and approaching -10 degrees.
Early next week, the weather pattern remains active with another
approaching weather system associated with a push of warmer air
aloft. While precipitation is possible, confidence in the exact
track, timing, and amounts of any potential snowfall is low due
to forecast guidance diverging.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
A mix of conditions this evening as areas of MVFR clouds and
some snow makes its way across the region. INL and HIB are the
most likely to see some snow this evening with impacted
visibilities. Some pockets of IFR ceilings could be possible
here. A secondary push of snow moves across BRD and HYR and
maybe DLH Friday morning bringing reduced visibilities and
ceilings. Gusty southerly winds should die down through this
evening, becoming more northwest into Friday for all terminals
except HYR which remains more southwest until Friday evening.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Strong winds are expected across western Lake Superior over the
next 48 hours. Southwesterly winds will continue to increase
this afternoon, reaching gale force with gusts of 35 to 40
knots, particularly along the North Shore and the Outer Apostle
Islands. These strong winds will generate significant waves of 7
to 10 feet, with occasional waves approaching 12 feet near
Grand Portage. Freezing spray is also expected, which can
accumulate ice on vessels. Winds will shift to the west on
Friday and decrease, though hazardous conditions for small
craft may linger into the morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-145>148.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>144-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...KML
