mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 030903
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures to persist through the weekend, with
the first widespread sub-zero morning of the season coming
Thursday morning, followed by near normal temperatures early
next week.
- A few chances for light snow through this weekend,
particularly Thursday night with a warm front and then
Saturday with a cold front, then potentially a larger system
mid-next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Surface analysis early this morning depicts a surface low over
western Lake Superior with a cold front sagging SW over eastern-
southern MN into SD, with arctic high pressure centered over
central Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a deep low rotates over
Hudson Bay with a longwave trough axis extended to its
southwest.
This trough axis is helping nudge the cold front off to the
southeast, bringing to an end the overnight light snow which
produced generally around a half inch of snow to much of the WFO
MPX coverage area. As high pressure makes inroads from the
northwest, temperatures will only drop from here on out (a.k.a.
highs for the December 3 calendar day have already been reached
at midnight). Despite an expected decrease in cloud cover
through the day, temperatures will drop to the single digits and
teens by daybreak then plunge to the single digits above and
below zero by sunset later today. The center of the 1035+ mb
high will shift to the SD/MN border tonight, helping promote
radiational cooling conditions which will work in tandem with
the fresh snowpack to force lows early Thursday morning to
around -10F. Winds will not go completely calm, generally in the
2-5mph range, making for wind chills in the -15F to
-20F range. So, although this is not headline criteria, the impacts
of very cold conditions still apply so be sure precautions are taken
if outdoors.
The center of the high will then shift east, just south of
MN/WI, into the Ohio River Valley, allowing for a warmer
return flow on its backside. However, coinciding with this
relative rebound in temperatures will be the arrival of a
clipper low from western Canada and its associated frontal
boundaries. While the low itself will remain north of the
international border Friday-Saturday, its fronts will be dragged
across the Upper Midwest. Modest isentropic lift in advance of
the warm front will spark off snow showers at a minimum, or more
sustained light snow, for areas mainly near and north of I-94
Thursday night. The passage of the warm front will also result
in an upwards bump in temperatures for Friday, going from the
teens on Thursday to the mid-upper 20s on Friday. This warm-up
will be short-lived as the associated cold front will drop
through the region Friday night into Saturday, thus putting
highs back into the teens for the weekend. Saturday is also when
the next chance of light snow comes across the region, with
this swath of snow highlighting mainly along and south of I-94.
Both the Thursday night and Saturday snow events look to have
minor snow accumulations, generally around an inch or less.
More tranquil conditions look to develop behind the front for
the Sunday-Tuesday period as high pressure appears to be the
prevailing weather feature. There also looks to be a more
prolonged rebound in temperatures per model blends, with
temperatures returning to near normal levels for the first part
of next week. There are some indications of a larger, more
organized system on the horizon for the middle of next week,
particularly as model blends put "Chance" PoPs already into the
forecast a week in advance. Many shifts can, and usually do,
occur between now and then but given the heightened blend
agreement this far out, this bears watching to see how it
evolves in the models over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Light snow is ongoing across our TAF sites. Snow totals of half
inch to an inch are likely by day break. MVFR to IFR vsby and
cigs to start - we'll improve vsby to MVFR to VFR by daybreak.
Cigs will be slower to improve as stratus sticks around behind
the cold front passage tonight. Winds will shift from the SW/W
to northwest with gusts up to 20kts possible on Wednesday.
Conditions return to VFR across all sites by afternoon hours.
KMSP... IFR to MVFR snow will taper off after 07Z. Total
snowfall of around a half inch to an inch possible. VFR flurries
are possible through daybreak. Low MVFR cigs likely through mid
morning before stratus scatters.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 5-15kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BPH
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 030834
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy northwest winds with falling temperatures today.
- Lows tonight will drop into the single digits and low teens
below zero with wind chills as cold as -20 to -25.
- Temperatures warm to end the week before another chance for
light snow followed by more cold air arrive this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Low pressure was analyzed over western Lake Superior early this
morning with a cold front extending back into far northwestern
Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and southern South Dakota. The
heaviest snow showers associated with the cold front were mainly
south and east of the Northland with only light flurries
remaining. Winds were picking up from the northwest as colder
air was starting to pour into the area. Highs have already
likely occurred for many areas this morning with temperatures
slowly falling or heading nearly steady for the remainder of the
day. An uptick of a few degrees is possible, but with the winds,
it won't be noticeable. Some lake effect snowfall may linger
into this evening across Iron County and perhaps off Rainy Lake
and Kabetogama Lake. Additional accumulations of an inch or two
will be possible. However, it is unknown how much ice has formed
on Rainy and Kabetogama lakes. SARRIS data from NOHRSC shows
mainly open water on both lakes, but also shows Red Lake iced
over. If there is more ice than the SARRIS data shows, snowfall
accumulations over northern St. Louis County will trend a bit
lower. Dry air will also be working in near the surface, so that
could further hamper lake-effect snow chances as well.
Lows tonight will fall into the single digits and low teens
below zero. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer for
tonight, which is also favored by the bias corrected guidance.
Cloud cover looks to be a bit less than previously forecast, so
better radiational cooling conditions may allow lows to fall a
few degrees cooler. Winds will be light, which will limit wind
chills, but they will also be turning southwesterly as warm air
advection arrives heading towards daybreak. This may also limit
cooling right when the coldest temperatures of the night
traditionally occur. All that said, apparent temperatures will
fall to as cold as -20 to -25F below zero. This is above cold
headline criteria across our northeastern Minnesota zones, but
there are a few pockets of -25F in our northwestern Wisconsin
zones which is right at criteria. Given the limited coverage of
-25F apparent temperatures, will hold off on any headlines at
this point.
Southerly flow Thursday will bring warming temperatures to the
region ahead of our next clipper that will move through during
the Thursday night into Friday time frame. Light snow showers
will be possible during this time, but any accumulations will be
minor. Highs Thursday will be in the teens with 20s for Friday.
A second cold front will follow for Friday night into Saturday
morning with another chance for light snow showers, but will be
followed by another shot of cold air. This will push highs back
into the high single digits and teens for the weekend with lows
falling into the single digits above and below zero. A northwest
flow regime will remain in place heading into the new week with
periodic clippers moving through with light snow chances.
Temperatures do look to warm into the 20s for highs by Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
MVFR conditions prevail across the region early this morning as
a clipper moves through. A few locations in northwest Wisconsin
are seeing IFR conditions due to heavier snow showers. Snow
showers will gradually end this morning with VSBYs returning to
VFR. Ceilings will be slower to improve with MVFR conditions
prevailing through much of the period. Any categorical ceiling
improvements won't arrive until late afternoon or evening. Winds
will be breezy this morning and afternoon from the northwest
with gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible as cold air moves in.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Northwesterly winds will gust to 25 to 30 knots today into
tonight across all of western Lake Superior. This will lead to
waves of 5 to 7 feet across the Outer Apostle Islands. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds will slowly diminish late
tonight into Thursday morning before backing southwesterly and
increasing ahead of our next clipper. Winds will gust to 25 to
35 knots with gales to 40 knots possible along parts of the
North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands were a Gale Watch has been
issued. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect elsewhere. A
cold front will move through late Thursday night into Friday
morning with winds turning northwesterly in its wake. Speeds
will then decrease Friday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-145>148.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LSZ140>144-
150.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for LSZ140>144-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
