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Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 121917
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
217 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous air quality this weekend from Canadian wildfire smoke.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday evening. A more
  widespread rain event likely Tuesday night - Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A broad area of Canadian wildfire smoke has settled in across
the Upper Midwest over the past half day. AQI values are at
Unhealthy levels across the state, & may decrease further with
the arrival of another wave of dense smoke this afternoon. While
it's an otherwise pleasant Summer day, it would be best to take
precautions and avoid strenuous outdoor activities & remain
indoors if possible. The smoke will clear out of the area
briefly on Sunday, but another broad area of wildfire smoke
pivots through Sunday evening into Monday per the HRRR near
surface smoke field. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for
both MN & WI counties through Monday morning.

Sunday afternoon will present a slight chance for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop along a weak surface boundary that moves
through. Storms shouldn't present much impact outside of a brief
shower & a few rumbles of thunder. Wildfire smoke should depart by
Tuesday for those hoping for better air quality. A better chance of
a more widespread precipitation event arrives late Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Guidance highlights a potent shortwave along the
international border on Tuesday & treks eastward through Thursday.
Increasing signal for a broad area of 0.50"+ of rain across the
Upper Mississippi valley region by the end of the work week. We will
dry out with a surface high pressure overhead Thursday & Friday that
should lead to a stretch of cooler than normal temperatures (think
highs in the 70s). Temperatures return to normal next weekend with
another chance for thunderstorms & showers on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Primary concern will be the near-surface smoke this afternoon
through Sunday. Opted for MVFR range visibility at all sites
from the early afternoon hours onward as smoke is expected to
settle across the Upper Midwest through the weekend. Only other
concern is the potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings at EAU where
winds drop off the most while low level moisture becomes caught
under the nightly inversion. Winds turn light & variable
overnight before turning back out of the SW on Sunday at speeds
aob 10kts.

KMSP...Smoke is expected throughout much of the period. Better
low-level mixing may allow for VFR visibility at times, but
prevailing visibility is likely to be in the MVFR range through
Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH



Office: DLH FXUS63 KDLH 121852 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke is expected to persist through Monday with perhaps a brief break for some places Sunday afternoon. - The next best chances for showers and storms is Sunday night and again Monday night into Tuesday. Occasional shower/storm chances the rest of the week. - Warm weather with highs in the 80s expected Sunday and Monday with cooler weather into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Smoke: Plenty of haze and smoke is expected through the weekend due to prevailing west/northwest winds today, becoming southwest Sunday. Visibilities will be variable as smoke coverage varies, but generally between 3-6 miles and occasionally down to 1-2 miles while plumes of smoke continue to advect through the region roughly from west to east. Air quality alerts are in effect through Monday for all of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Find air quality information through Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (https:/www.pca.state.mn.us/air- water-land-climate/air-quality) and Wisconsin DNR (https:/dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/AirQuality). This afternoon and tonight: Aside from the smoke, we have a post-cold frontal air mass in place today and an upper-level trough that will be moving off to the east/northeast into tonight. Aside from a few showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm in the Arrowhead through this afternoon, dry weather is expected. Low-level flow will become more west/southwest tonight with warm air advection developing due to broader ridging to our west. A weak shortwave will pass through tonight, but with dry air expected, there shouldn't be any rain with it. Sunday: On Sunday, expect warm air advection through the day that will cause some rather toasty temperatures around the mid 80s pretty much regionwide. Again, a pretty dry airmass, so maybe a few cumulus clouds developing, but otherwise just a warm summer day. We might even get a little break from the smoke Sunday afternoon with southwest winds pushing it away just for a bit. Sunday night: A cold front is then expected to pass through Sunday evening, and as it does, there could be just enough instability present to promote some scattered showers and storms, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. Right now, convective parameters look actually semi-decent for a few stronger storms (up to 1.5 kJ/kg MUCAPE; 0-6 km shear ~40 kt; PWAT just over an inch), so we'll have to keep an eye on that, but that all depends if ingredients come together just right. If there are any storms, they should be in and out of the region pretty quickly Sunday night. Lack of synoptic forcing sitting under the right exit region of a jet aloft (leading to some sinking air) could be an inhibiting factor. After the front passes, we'll probably see some more smoke moving in. Monday: We get a bit more zonal flow into Monday with some more warm air advection at/near the surface. So despite a "cold" front, it's still going to be a warm Monday with highs in the 80s. Monday night into Tuesday: Into Monday night, it's looking like we'll get an upper-level wave passing through with some fairly strong frontogenesis associated with a cold front that should pass through going into Tuesday. Some pretty deep moisture with PWATs >1.5" may be possible along with pre- frontal southwesterly flow aloft that could promote at least some training potential of thunderstorms that may develop ahead of the front Monday night. There's a lot of model disagreement with other convective parameters as the strongest (likely elevated) instability may not be perfectly aligned with better bulk shear. So in terms of potential for strong to severe storm potential, confidence is pretty low at this time. But in any case, we may see some storms Monday night and into Tuesday with cooler air advecting in from the north. Wednesday through Friday: Some cooler air is looking to settle in Wednesday into Thursday. Some places may see highs only reaching the 60s. A slightly wavy quasi-zonal flow pattern for a few days may keep rain/storm chances in the forecast at times through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Prevailing MVFR conditions through the period at all terminals due to persistent smoke and haze. HRRR smoke model suggests we will continue to see plumes of nar-surface smoke passing through tonight. It's possible there may be a bit of a break with winds becoming more southwesterly mid Sunday morning around BRD, temporarily clearing some smoke out. With all regional northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin observations sitting firmly in the ~1 1/2 to 5 SM range currently and westerly winds expected to persist today, it seems reasonable that visibilities should predominantly remain MVFR. It's possible that some mixing this afternoon could lead to some 6 SM visibility at times, but perhaps not predominantly. Aside from smoke, clouds are expected to clear out a bit this afternoon, so ceilings may scatter to VFR and remain that way through the period as drier air moves in. Occasional gusts around or just over 15 kt from the west to northwest today, decreasing a bit tonight in speed and becoming southwesterly. Some 15 to 20 kt gusts are expected again late Sunday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Southwesterly winds are expected tonight through midday Monday. Winds will strengthen in speed on Sunday, and there is a ~20-30% chance that there could be some gusts up to 25 kt, but more likely topping out at around 20 to 21 kt Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds decrease Sunday night and become a bit more variable in direction with generally light speeds Monday night into Tuesday. There is a small chance (15-20%) for some non-severe storms Sunday evening. Additional chances for storms are expected (30-40% chance) Monday night into Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS