mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 292319
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
519 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing snowstorm will slowly wind down through the evening.
No major deviations from the forecast occurring with this one.
- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week
of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of the
season looking likely Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a classic mid-latitude
cyclone over the central CONUS. Here in MN and WI, we're within the
well defined baroclinic leaf of this system. We have broad ascent
across the area, but the cold cloud tops and convective look to the
clouds has been down in Iowa, where we've seen some intense
mesoscale bands of snow. This broad shield of light to moderate snow
for up here was well forecast. From what reports we've gotten so far
(4.5" through 2pm at Albert Lea is a good example), it's looking
like we're heading toward a ceiling of 8-9 inches down along the I-
90 corridor. Up in the Twin Cities, we're looking at 3 or 4 inches
for the south metro, with amounts closer to 2 inches in the north
metro. Out in WI, 4 or 5 inches looks to be a reasonable final
number for when all is said and done. What will eventually put an
end to this snow is the h5 trough currently dropping into eastern
NoDak from southern Canada. Subsidence in the wake of this trough
will quickly cut off the snow, with the only potential for snow
Sunday into Sunday night being the possibility for flurries with any
lingering cloud cover, as those clouds will be completely within the
DGZ.
Through mid-December, if northwest flow and cold temperatures are
your jam, you will love the vibe MN and WI will be giving off. This
pattern will also likely feature plenty of snow falling, though it
won't add up to much. It's a clipper train type of pattern, but one
of those where we'll likely nickle and dime our way to 3-6 inches of
snow through the first half of December. As for temperatures, we'll
have two challenges. First, we're running 4 to 5 degrees above
normal through the fall, which means any bias corrections will now
have a high bias, as those biases were developed in a very different
environment that didn't include the snowpack we now have. We will
likely have to get through most of the second week of December to de-
bias the bias corrected data.
As for some specifics, the coldest period of the next week will be
Wednesday through Wednesday night behind a strong cold front that
will blow through here Tuesday night. Besides the high moving in,
skies Wednesday night may end up pretty clear, with the NBM showing
lows Thursday morning below zero for the entire MPX area, with some
double digit below zero lows in central MN. Depending on what
happens with cloud cover, these still may not be cold enough. From a
climatology perspective, MSP averages December 10th for seeing the
first sub-zero low of the season, so this would be about a week
earlier than normal and the earliest we've gone below zero since
Thanksgiving morning in 2014 saw a low of -4.
Looking at precipitation, we'll be near the tracks for a clipper
wave train for the next week+. The first chance for some light snow
will come with the front Tuesday night, then there's a clipper that
looks to stay mainly to our north Thursday, then another for
Saturday, another early to mid the following week. Hopefully you get
the idea, lots of chances for snow, but in all instances 0.25" of
QPF would be the top end of what we could expect from any wave, so a
nickle and dime approach to building our seasonal snow total.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Snow will continue into tonight for all of our terminals with
visibilities remaining between 3/4sm and 2sm for at least the
next couple of hours. A west to east improvement visibilities
(to eventually VFR) will begin after 03Z as the snow tapers off
from the storm system exiting east. Snow will end by daybreak
over WI. Cigs will remain MVFR during the snow, but confidence
is still questionable about what happens after. RAP soundings
continue to be pessimistic with skies clearing out on Sunday.
Did put a few hour period of VFR cigs for the morning hours over
WI before returning to MVFR for the remainder of the period. MN
terminals don't look to reach VFR until late Sunday afternoon.
Northerly winds will gradually turn counter-clockwise to west-
northwesterly. Winds will be greatest from midnight thru Sunday
morning where sustained values will range from 10-15 knots
while gusts reach at or above 20 knots.
KMSP...Falling snow should lead to 1 1/2sm to 2sm visibility
through about 08Z. Snow should finally taper off near 10Z but
MVFR strato-cumulus looks to last until late Sunday afternoon
before clouds finally clear and lift. North-northwesterly winds
will gust to near 20 knots tonight into Sunday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR chc IFR cigs late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...MVFR chc IFR cigs. Chc -sn overnight. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Carver-
Chippewa-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-
Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley-Swift-Washington-
Wright-Yellow Medicine.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth-
Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-
Waseca-Watonwan.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le
Sueur-Rice.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa-
Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 292345
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A heavy band or two of lake effect snow are expected to impact
areas around the head of the lake and across the South Shore
this evening and overnight. Accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are
expected and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
Southern St. Louis, Carlton, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and
Iron Counties.
- Light to moderate snow is expected elsewhere across the Northland
this evening and overnight. A dusting to a couple inches is
possible, highest amounts in NW WI. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect for Price County.
- Colder temperatures into the work week with additional passing
chances of snow with weak clipper systems.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
With webcam visibilities dropping to < 0.5 miles in the seeder-
feeder lake effect enhancements, opted to include Southern St.
Louis and Carlton in a Winter Weather Advisory. With the current
snowfall rates under these blobs, could see localized amounts in
excess of 3 inches. These heavier snow bands should slowly shift
south of the Twin Ports after 9 PM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
As expected, lake effect snow bands pushed out into Western Lake
Superior overnight, to then turn and start to pushing onshore
through today, with an additional synoptic boost of moisture from
the larger low pressure system to our south. However, not quite
expected was just how far north this band managed to get, with a
convergence zone band affecting areas along the North Shore near
Silver Bay/Little Marais through this morning. A secondary area of
lake effect snow (LES) has developed towards the head of the lake
early this afternoon with winds turning northeast from Two Harbors
to Port Wing and southwest, along with synoptic moisture possibly
leading to a bit of a seeder-feeder situation amplifying the
firehose of snow into the Twin Ports and down the St. Louis River
valley.
We're finally seeing some of the winds further out in western Lake
Superior turn ENE early this afternoon, which as those pick up and
push onshore, should help the more northern LES convergence band
sweep down to the Twin Ports and then onto the South Shore.
Especially as this band overlaps with the best northeast winds and
synoptic moisture/support it should be able to produce some heftier
snowfall rates for the South Shore from Douglas to Iron County as
the winds go from northeast to northwest. Hi-res models are still
varying run to run on exactly where along the South Shore the
heaviest bands of accumulation end up setting up, but I have
generally good confidence in the higher terrain seeing 2-5", with
localized amounts in excess of 6" possible. As winds turn northwest
and the lake effect bullseye focuses back on northern Iron County,
there is about a 20-25% chance for 8"+ for areas from Upson to
Hurley along Hwy 77. A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect
for the South Shore beginning at 6pm tonight through the overnight
hours.
Elsewhere, light to moderate synoptic snow has blossomed early this
afternoon as the low pressure system moves over Iowa/Illinois and
has pushed enough moisture into the Northland for saturation. Areas
of possible light accumulation of a couple tenths of a inch have
expanded across much of the Northland, with amounts of an inch or
more expected along the I-35 corridor and east, with the highest
amounts outside of the South Shore being 2-5" in Price County, where
a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Some light lake effect
snow is possible again into Sunday morning coming off of the large
inland lakes as well.
Even colder air is expected to be pulled into the Northland behind
this system bringing highs in the teens and lows below zero for the
beginning of the work week. Through next week, global models are in
decent agreement that we'll remain under northwest flow with a low
over Hudson Bay. This could spit off some little shortwaves that
have the potential to bring some clipper type systems to the
Northland with additional light snow accumulations. The first looks
to be Monday evening into Tuesday but this system is fairly moisture-
starved so accumulations would likely be minimal. Global models
highlight more chances for light snow Tuesday night- Wednesday and
then something towards the end of the week as well. While most of
these systems don't currently look like they would bring warning
level amounts of snow, we do look to just keep slowly adding light
to moderate amounts every couple of days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Flying conditions across our TAF sites will be poor due to
light to moderate snow and heavy lake effect snow bands.
Visibility will drop to IFR or lower at times and ceilings will
likely fall to IFR in the heavy snow bands. The snow and lowest
visibilities are expected to pass through most terminals
tonight (except KINL which may be too far north though may
encounter some inland lake effect) and taper off as winds
become more northwesterly on Sunday. Winds gust to 25 knots
early Sunday morning. Expect conditions to gradually improve to
VFR by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Northeast winds become dominant across Western Lake Superior through
the rest of this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 15-20
knots and gusts up to 25 knots forcing waves of 2 to 6 feet are
expected, especially for the South Shore to Saxon Harbor. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds become northwest overnight
into Sunday which are likely to remain strong at least through
midday Sunday. Gusts in excess of 25 knots are expected and
extensions of Small Craft Advisories are possible. There is a 10-40%
chance for some gales along the North Shore Sunday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ037.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-140>142-
146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ143>145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolfe
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Levens
