mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 060429
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1029 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering light snow ends from west to east today, with travel
impacts through the evening commute.
- Cold temperatures tonight with lows in the single digits across
the area.
- Another round of snow expected to arrive midday tomorrow in
western MN, spread southeast through early Sunday. Several
inches of accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower
amounts to the north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Radar echoes continue to churn over the eastern half of Minnesota
and through western WI this afternoon, with the strongest echoes and
highest snowfall rates skirting just to the south of the MPX CWA in
WI in portions of Wabasha, Trempealeau, and Buffalo counties as of
130pm. High resolution guidance has not performed particularly well
with the evolution of the light snowfall today, as it tends to
struggle with high PoP/low QPF type of scenarios. The latest
HRRR/RAP show lingering echoes in southern MN through 21-22z after
which point all snow tapers off this evening. Additional
accumulations in the area should remain rather low, with an
additional tenth of an inch or two in areas that continue to see
some light snow. Visibility has generally been improving per
automated surface observations, generally improving from 2 miles or
lower while snow is falling to above 7-8 miles as it ends. In this
type of environment, visibility is a decent proxy to snowfall rates,
thus once the visibility improves we can generally say that
lingering radar echoes are struggling to produce noticeable
precipitation. Temperatures are expected to crash behind the
departing snowfall as northwesterly winds stack across all layers of
the troposphere, allowing overnight low temperatures to range in the
single digits above zero tonight with the warmest temps in the metro
urban heat island.
Another clipper type snow event is likely tomorrow favoring western
to southern Minnesota and into Iowa, beginning around midday in
western MN and spreading southeast into the evening before ending
early Sunday morning. Guidance is still wobbling, especially the
high resolution guidance as there was a significant discontinuity
between the 00z runs last night and the 06/12z runs this morning,
with the 18z returning to align with the earlier runs. The 06/12z
HRRR especially pushed snowfall potential much farther north which
has again retreated back to the south with the 18z guidance, as the
18z RAP shows a solid footprint of snow along and south of the
Minnesota River with the highest amounts in northern Iowa. From our
snow events so far this season, the RRFS/AIFS have acted as a steady
anchor point for the forecast as the guidance has trended towards
their solutions the closer we have moved towards an event, and no
surprise the return to the more southerly solution within the 18z
guidance is also following this trend as both keep the axis of
highest snowfall potential from roughly Sioux Falls to Des Moines.
Dynamics wise this looks to be a quintessential clipper type event
with a strengthening mid level shortwave on top of a deep dendritic
growth zone due to cold low level temperatures. Forecast soundings
show a deepening DGZ as precipitation begins, with dynamic cooling
allowing for better saturation and efficient snowfall production
into the evening. The vertical continuity between the 925-700mb
isodrosotherms and shortwave moving through should produce the
heaviest bursts of snowfall as frontogenetic forcing remains aloft
with the lack of a defined surface system/boundary, which timing
wise favors the late afternoon through evening time frame south of
the Minnesota River. With the snowfall relying on the omega from the
shortwave, snow should end rather quickly as the forcing departs to
the southeast, with most of the area done with snow after midnight.
Overall accumulations are still fluctuating based on the expected
track of the shortwave, with a solid 3-6 inch range south of the
Minnesota River decreasing to 1-2 inches for most of the Twin Cities
metro and even lower amounts to the north where the forcing cuts
off. The highest overall amounts of 6 inches or more look to fall in
central to northern Iowa where the best chance to line up the
forcing with the best environment matches up, however there is still
enough movement run to run within the guidance that some shifting is
still possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued along and
south of the Minnesota River, with some upgrades/expansion possible
tonight with the midnight shift having fresh data to work with after
the 00z upper air soundings. Travel impacts are expected Saturday
evening into early Sunday, especially along I-90 where our highest
amounts are most likely, with impacts tapering off as crews have
time to work on Sunday.
Temperatures remain cold on Sunday in the single digits with lows
dropping below zero in spots both Sunday and Monday morning before
we warm back up into the 20s on Monday ahead of our next potential
system. Guidance late Monday into Tuesday favors a weak surface low
developing alongside a diffuse upper level shortwave tracking from
Grand Forks down through Duluth, which would place an axis of
precipitation along our border with the DLH NWS office. We may be
dealing with some p-type issues as we warm up enough to get above at
the surface, with 850mb temperatures trending towards the freezing
mark as well. There are still a few ways this could play out
depending on where the forcing ends up and how far north the warmer
air pushes, but don't be surprised if we start to mention a wintry
mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain/drizzle on Tuesday next week.
Stay tuned for more detail as there is still a high degree of
uncertainty depending on how things evolve. Yet another shot of
colder air is appearing within the longer range ensemble guidance
afterwards, returning us back to our clipper train type environment
we have been in since Thanksgiving.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Main forecast change this period has been a general southward
shift with the snow tomorrow. This mainly impacts MSP/RNH/EAU,
where accumulating snow may end up south of these terminals.
Still expect at least a few hours of snow at these terminals
tomorrow evening, although accumulations will likely be on the
order of an inch or less & visibility impacts potentially less
severe. No changes in the forecast at RWF & MKT, where 3-6" of
snow & IFR visibility are still expected tomorrow afternoon &
evening.
Ceilings appear less likely to scatter out overnight, although a
few hours of improvement to VFR still looks possible during the
early morning hours. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR by
late morning, & stay there at terminals that are north of the
snow. Ceilings likely dip back to MVFR levels once the snow
begins across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
Northwest winds drop below 5 kts overnight & gradually become
northeasterly into tomorrow morning. Speeds increase to around
10 kts by tomorrow afternoon.
KMSP...Confidence has decreased in accumulating snowfall
tomorrow evening, owing to a general southward shift in the
guidance this evening. It is still more likely than not that we
see a few hours of light snowfall, & possible IFR visibility,
but accumulations will likely be on the order of an inch or
less.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Likely VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -SN. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight CST
Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-
Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow
Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...ETA
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 060531
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1131 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A secondary cold front brings another round of low-impact, light
snow tonight into early Saturday, mainly impacting the Iron
Range and the Arrowhead.
- Arctic air settles in this weekend, bringing another round of
temperatures lows in the low teens below zero and highs in
the single digits to low teens above zero.
- A series of weather systems will cross the region next week,
with the potential for more impactful snowfall totals arriving
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
The Northland will see the tail end of a passing weather system
today. Patches of freezing drizzle have been noted in the Twin
Ports and may persist in spots this afternoon, which could lead
to travel hazards primarily northwest Wisconsin through the
afternoon and early evening. Light snow will also persist along
our southern area, through the late afternoon. Any accumulation
is expected to be minimal, generally less than an inch, but
slick spots are possible especially where freezing drizzle falls.
Additionally, patches of freezing drizzle have been noted in
the Twin Ports and may persist in spots this afternoon, which
could add to the travel hazard. This evening and tonight, a
secondary cold front pushes through, causing a second round of
light snow to develop across the northern half of the region,
including the Arrowhead. Lake effect snow is expected to focus
on Iron County as an arctic air mass moves into the region,
where another one to two inches of accumulation is possible
before all activity ends early Saturday morning.
The main story for the weekend is the arrival of a much colder air
mass. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be frigid, ranging
from -5 to 5 degrees. The cold persists into the weekend with highs
struggling to reach the single digits and teens. We expect dry
conditions for most of Saturday and Sunday, though a weak
disturbance passing well to our south on Saturday might clip our
southern border with a few very light snow flurries with little
to no accumulation or impacts expected. This pattern of
northwest flow will keep temperatures below normal through the
start of next week.
The next week looks active with multiple chances for snow. A system
is forecast for Monday into Monday night, but current forecast
guidance suggests limited impacts due to less favorable
conditions from limited frontogenesis and mid and upper level
forcing and high lapse rates being offset from each other, with
less than three inches of total snowfall anticipated for the
area. Attention then turns to a stronger Alberta Clipper system
that is forecast to track across the Northern Plains and into
the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast models show this
as a more potent weather maker with better ingredients for
heavier snow, including plenty of forcing and frontogenesis, so
this is the system we will be watching closely for the
potential of higher, more impactful snow totals. Temperatures
will briefly warm up on Tuesday ahead of the main system before
more frigid air arrives again on Wednesday, dropping
temperatures back well below normal for the remainder of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
MVFR ceilings still largely encompass most of the region. Satellite
does show some clearing skies along the International Border with a
trend towards the southeast. Radar is also still picking up on a
some light snow showers under the cloud deck. Models are really
struggling with cloud cover for Saturday so confidence is a little
low as to how these ceilings will play out. For now, we expect a
return to VFR conditions, clouds are not expected to fully clear out
but we think the coverage will be more SCT than BKN. High res
guidance suggests the highest density of MVFR clouds will be along
the International Border, through the Arrowhead and into NW WI
during the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Westerly winds over Western Lake Superior will decrease
slightly through the afternoon before becoming northwesterly and
increasing tonight. Winds are forecast to be 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 28 knots, leading to hazardous conditions for
small craft, especially along the South Shore and northern
portions of the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for these areas of nearshore waters through Saturday
morning. Winds will then diminish on Saturday and remain 10-15
kts through Sunday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-
145>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140-141-
150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...KML
