mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 101720
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for appreciable rain are limited this week, mainly for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early
Tuesday morning, a few producing hail and gusty winds,
followed by scattered showers late Tuesday night and again
Friday night.
- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values through
Wednesday, then drop below normal Thursday onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Modest high pressure will be the prevailing surface feature
today with a wavy quasi-stationary west-to-east front sitting
over the Central Plains, mid-Mississippi River Valley into the
Ohio Valley. Low-level moisture remains fairly high this morning
with near-zero to zero dewpoint depressions across just about
all of the WFO MPX coverage area, resulting in areas of fog over
southern and eastern portions of our coverage area. Once that
low level moisture burns off, a mix of sun and clouds can be
expected with highs into the low-mid 80s. Clouds increase
tonight as the front lifts back north while ever-present Hudson
Bay upper level low spins a potent shortwave around its western
and southern fringes towards the Upper Midwest later tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Nocturnal jetting will also again
develop within a fairly unstable environment, putting
ingredients in place for the development of overnight
showers/thunderstorms. There is already decent CAM agreement on
a cluster of storms looking to develop in eastern SD and
northeastern NE around 06z tonight, then pressing ESE into
southwestern-southern MN, thus near and south of the MN River.
Arguments can be made of having an MCS develop if the convection
aligns with the timing/placement of the nocturnal LLJ. As such,
this aligns with the placement of the Marginal Risk in the
SWODY1 (and the edge of the Slight Risk along our border with
WFO FSD). Due to the timing of the potential convection, the
SWODY1 bleeds into the start of the SWODY2 period, hence the
very similar placement of the Marginal Risk in both outlooks.
Precipitation will wane shortly after sunrise Tuesday morning,
making for a tranquil day with highs again into the low-mid 80s
and highest dewpoints pooled in far southern MN, into the lower
70s. Another round of scattered showers looks to develop late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning but this round looks
much more benign, potentially not even having thunderstorms
associated with it.
Once past this early Wednesday morning round of rain, conditions
look fairly dry through the rest of the workweek as high
pressure nudging southeast from western Canada will be the
prevailing feature. So much so, in fact, that temperatures are
still advertised to take a drop to below normal levels from
Thursday onward, coming out of the 80s and into the 70s. There
is a weak low pressure system over the Plains which may thrust
some isentropic lift into the region, potentially producing
scattered rain showers for Friday night into Saturday but again
nothing looks to be organized or impactful. The below normal
temperatures will then remain in place through the upcoming
weekend with little in the way of appreciable precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Tempered back the BKN mid to high level CIGS we were carrying
from the 12z TAF as satellite shows generally lower coverage for
the start of the period. The BKN skies look to arrive after
03-04z as the front slides northwards, with a chance for
-TSRA/-SHRA for the southern sites, most likely for RWF/MKT with
a lower chance for MSP. BKN low VFR cigs are the lowest
expected, with a lower level warm nose keeping the bulk of
potential activity elevated with only MVFR visibility during
active -TSRA/-SHRA. By 12z, the chances diminish and we return
to VFR at all sites with CIGS improving to 10kft and bcmg
scattered. Winds will weaken overnight prevailing from 070-100
with speeds under 5kts, VRB at times.
KMSP...Kept the prob30 for -RA intact from the 12z, but the
chance has lowered with guidance pushing southwards. If this
trend continues for the 00z, we may remove the -RA chance
entirely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...chc MVFR/-TSRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDH
FXUS63 KMPX 101751
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms likely (50-60% chance) across southern
Minnesota late tonight into early tomorrow morning, some could
be strong with wind as the main threat.
- Additional thunderstorm possible (30% chance) tomorrow night
into Wednesday, but more scattered with less severe potential.
- Temperatures turn cooler mid week into the weekend with highs
only in the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
High pressure remains the main story today with light winds
present. There is quite a dew point spread across the region
with mid 50s in central Minnesota up to 70s down near the Iowa
border. Looking towards tonight into tomorrow morning a potent
shortwave will track from the Northern Plains into the Midwest.
It will be mainly down in this region with the higher dew points
across southern Minnesota that will see impacts from the source
of forcing. How far north rain will get will depend on the
strength of the LLJ we get and how much of a moisture push
occurs. The Twin Cities metro is near the northern end of these
chances that will be dependent on this additional push from the
LLJ to see much chance for rain or thunderstorms. It will be
this area south that has the best chance. Overall CI is expected
to occur to out west across South Dakota and will likely see
upscale growth into an MCS as it moves east into southern
Minnesota/Iowa. As is common with this convective mode, wind
and heavy rain will be the main concerns as this passes through
tonight or tomorrow morning. PW values will be up near 2 inches
based on CAM output, so heavy rain will be likely within what
storms do occur. It will be residence time of this rain that
will determine the flooding threat.
Tuesday will see more of a northwest flow pattern without much
strong forcing. Daytime heating will still be robust, as is
common in the summer, and will provide a more airmass kind of
thunderstorm environment. Shear doesn't look great for us and
that will limit severe chances such that SPC has marginal over
us for tomorrow. In the SPC day 2 discussion they mentioned
the chance for another round of upscale growth into an MCS as
one of the reasons for the marginal risk over southern
Minnesota.
Cooler air and higher pressure look to be the story for the later
part of the work week. This will see highs in the 70s with low PoP
chances. Looking toward the weekend there is some signal within
ensemble systems for another round of rain. Scattering still
remains fairly significant, but it is Saturday, especially
early, that shows the best chances. This is also reflected with
some likely PoPs in the NBM for this period. This does not look
to be a strongly forced event, which introduces some additional
areas of uncertainty. With these rain chances the cooler
temperatures should extend into Saturday, with some warming for
the start of the next week expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Tempered back the BKN mid to high level CIGS we were carrying
from the 12z TAF as satellite shows generally lower coverage for
the start of the period. The BKN skies look to arrive after
03-04z as the front slides northwards, with a chance for
-TSRA/-SHRA for the southern sites, most likely for RWF/MKT with
a lower chance for MSP. BKN low VFR cigs are the lowest
expected, with a lower level warm nose keeping the bulk of
potential activity elevated with only MVFR visibility during
active -TSRA/-SHRA. By 12z, the chances diminish and we return
to VFR at all sites with CIGS improving to 10kft and bcmg
scattered. Winds will weaken overnight prevailing from 070-100
with speeds under 5kts, VRB at times.
KMSP...Kept the prob30 for -RA intact from the 12z, but the
chance has lowered with guidance pushing southwards. If this
trend continues for the 00z, we may remove the -RA chance
entirely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...chc MVFR/-TSRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 101941
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
241 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures continue this week, with a slight
cooldown near the end of the week.
- Low, isolated chances of showers and storms tonight into the
mid week may bring a couple hundredths of rain and cloud to
ground lightning.
- More shower and storm chances Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
For the rest of the day, pleasant conditions will prevail
across the Northland under mostly sunny skies. Elevated wildfire
smoke drifting overhead may cause hazy skies at times. As we
head into tonight, cloud cover will gradually increase across
the region. A weak passing disturbance will bring a slight
chance of rain showers and isolated storms after midnight (no
severe weather expected). However, precipitation probability
for tonight is capped at thirty percent as incoming moisture
battles dry air in place over the area, resulting in little to
no accumulation.
On Tuesday, mostly sunny skies will return for much of the day
with only a lingering slight chance of morning showers. Weather
disturbances diving through the persistent northwest flow aloft
will bring another chance for showers and non-severe storms
Tuesday night. Recent guidance indicates that showers and storms
Tuesday night into Wednesday have taken a more southerly track.
Uncertainty in the placement of convection, shower and
thunderstorm chances for Tuesday night are also capped at
thirty percent. Furthermore, as these weak features continue to
battle the ambient dry airmass over our region, very little
rainfall accumulation is expected.
Heading into Wednesday, partly sunny conditions are expected to
prevail. With the bulk of the upper-level energy shifting south of
the Northland, only scattered rain showers and a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms remain in the forecast. High pressure will
then build into the Upper Midwest for Thursday, providing quiet,
drier weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the
entire area.
Looking toward the end of the week, comfortable mid-August
weather will continue on Friday with partly sunny skies. A
stronger low-pressure system is forecast to approach the area
Friday night into Saturday, bringing a more widespread chance
for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Cloud cover will
increase Friday night with rain chances peaking on Saturday.
As the system moves east Saturday night, precipitation will
taper off, leading to partly sunny skies on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected until early Tuesday morning when fog
may develop at HIB and HYR.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
along the North Shore will turn light and variable overnight.
Waves will remain 1 to 2 feet in the far northern nearshore
waters and 1 foot or less elsewhere. There is a very small
chance for showers and storms on Lake Superior overnight
tonight. Main hazard will be cloud to ground lightning. On
Tuesday, winds become northeast at 5 to 10 knots with waves
remaining 1 foot or less. No marine headlines are expected over
the next 72 hours. Slight general thunderstorm chances return
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
A slightly drier airmass remains across the region today with
minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 35 to 45
percent range, accompanied by west to northwest winds of 5 to 10
mph. For the rest of the work week, moisture increases slightly
with minimum relative humidity values in the 30 to 50 percent
range and light northwest to north winds around 5 to 10 mph.
Winds will switch to the southeast on Friday but will remain
light. A pattern of periodic shower and non- severe
thunderstorm chances every 36 to 48 hours will maintain
intermittent opportunities for localized wetting rains through
the week ahead.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
