mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 012325
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold but otherwise relatively quiet weather this week.
- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, mainly tomorrow
evening into early Wednesday. Another chance for non-accumulating
flurries Thursday into Friday and again over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Today has largely turned into a day of low level cloud cover
producing bursts of light snow/flurries which has led to some
visibility reductions mainly in southern Minnesota. Faribault has
been sitting below 5sm with -SN for the last few hours, so a few
reports of a tenth of an inch or two of new accumulation is not out
of the question, however webcams continue to show roadways remaining
clear. Satellite shows a brief pocket of clearing in west-central
Minnesota moving eastwards slowly, however further low to lower-mid
level cloud cover on the heels of the clearing should keep any peeks
of sun short lived this afternoon. With the low level clouds
continuing to linger, the subtle forcing from a passing upper level
trough will be enough to squeeze out further light snow showers that
should remain non accumulating for now. This trough passes across
the region tonight with the airmass unchanged heading into Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft coupled with cold 850mb temperatures will
continue with any weak forcing over the colder temperatures
resulting in flurries and light snow, much like today. The best
overall chance for a dusting to up to a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation will arrive tomorrow evening into early Wednesday
morning in central Minnesota as a subtle shortwave moves over the
colder low level temperatures, producing enough lift within the DGZ
for a few bursts of heavier snowfall. Area-wise, we are only looking
at local accumulations with most seeing flurries at best, with
western WI seeing the best overall chance to pick up a few tenths of
an inch ending early Wednesday.
There is little overall change to the pattern with the exception
being a lobe of even colder arctic air pushing southwards Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning, resulting in the coldest temperatures
we have seen so far this year with low temperatures in the blended
guidance ranging from around -8 to -15F with the metro being
the warmest. As this is blended guidance, we will likely see
these numbers decrease slightly as we get a bit closer as bias
correction catches up to the cold, with 850mb temp anomalies
from -10 to -15C. The main difference in the deterministic
guidance is the strength of the surface high pressure keeping
the arctic air locked in, ranging from 1035-1040mb. This
realistically will not have a huge implication on the low
temperatures, with the 925-850mb cold layer playing the largest
role alongside our recent snowpack helping our lows crash even
lower than they would over exposed ground. Much like today, the
rest of the period will contain cosmetic/nuisance flurry chances
that do little aside from briefly reducing visibility with no
accumulation expected as of now, mainly over the weekend as
guidance is showing a weak trough moving across the region
midday Saturday through Sunday. Overall, the period is expected
to be cold with minimal active weather besides the flurry
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
For southwest MN (RWF), greater clearing and overall VFR
conditions should prevail for the entire period. Though, did add
a TEMPO from 03-07Z for periodic MVFR cigs. Elsewhere, generally
MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail into mid-Tuesday morning. Used TEMPOs
for terminals where more periodic reductions to IFR are
expected. Clouds should break apart some and lift to VFR by
early Tuesday afternoon, before a cold front arrives from the
west Tuesday evening. Southwesterly winds near or below 5 knots
tonight will turn south by Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 5-10
knots.
KMSP...Added a TEMPO for the first few hours of the TAF for
periods of VFR as breaks in the low-level strato-cumulus pass
overhead. But, MVFR should prevail until about 18Z Tuesday
before clouds scatter and lift to VFR. MVFR cigs return Tuesday
evening after a cold frontal passage.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 012343
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mix of very light snow and flurries today and tomorrow.
- The next chance for widespread light snow (up to 2 inches)
is Tuesday night into Wednesday.
- Expect blustery northwest winds and very cold temperatures
mid-week.
- Widespread below zero low temperatures are likely Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Mostly cloudy conditions across the Northland. A weak
disturbance moving into the area from the west will keep the
cloud cover persistent causing flurries, but no significant
measurable snow is expected. Temperatures will remain quite
chilly, with highs only reaching the mid to upper teens. Tuesday
looks generally quiet during the day, with a small warming
trend to the low 20s, but clouds will increase as the next
weather system approaches.
The next notable weather maker is a quick-moving system
arriving Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. This is
expected to bring our best chance for accumulating snow this
week, with most areas likely seeing a dusting to an inch or two
across our region. Areas along the Wisconsin South Shore of Lake
Superior have the potential for slightly higher totals due to
the lake's influence enhancing the snowfall. The total snowfall
accumulation is not expected to be significant because this
system isn't carrying a lot of moisture. Following this system,
cold air will move in quickly on Wednesday, making conditions
blustery with northwest wind gusts potentially reaching 20 to 25
miles per hour. This will lead to very cold wind chills near
-25 F, so we may have to issue some Cold Weather Advisories.
The rest of the work week and into the next weekend will
feature a consistently cold pattern, with temperatures near or
below average for early December. An active upper-level flow
will allow several small disturbances to pass through the
Northland on northwest flow, bringing periodic chances for light
snow through the week. However, there is some uncertainty about
the exact timing and track of these features later in the week,
so details remain fuzzy, but no major snow impacts are
currently expected. We will continue to monitor the potential
for a slightly more organized, but fairly moisture starved,
system next weekend which could bring a better chance for snow,
but for now, the focus is on the light snow mid-week and the
prolonged period of arctic cold. No southern stream systems are
expected which will limit moisture for any systems that do pass
through.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Warm air advection aloft was creating widespread flurries this
evening. MVFR ceilings will persist until slightly drier air
moves in aloft Tuesday afternoon. Ceilings may drop into IFR at
DLH, HIB, BRD, and HYR tonight before returning to MVFR Tuesday
morning. A moisture-limited clipper will move across the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday which will bring a chance of
accumulating snow to the region.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening for
most of the nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior, due to
southwest winds gusting up to 25 to 30 knots in the open waters,
leading to waves of 3 to 5 feet - mainly over the Apostles.
These winds will diminish tonight. However, winds are expected
to increase again Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the
approaching weather system. Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday and
Wednesday night when winds shift to blustery northwest behind
the system, with speeds of 20 to 30 knots. Waves will build back
up to 4 to 6 feet across east of Grand Marais. Southwest gales
are possible Thursday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>143-146>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Wolfe
