mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 301248
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Remnant light snow ends from west to east this morning.
- Weak clipper system provides a potential for snow showers
Wednesday.
- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week
of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of
the season looking likely Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Latest surface analysis this morning shows low pressure entering
the Chicagoland region of Illinois and continuing northeast.
The western edge of that system (which brought us this
snowfall), is seen well on nighttime microphysics. Stratus
coupled with light snow is still working on clearing out of the
eastern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Snow should
continue to taper off from west to east through this morning and
all should be snow-free around noon if not sooner. Storm total
snowfall amounts as of 12 AM for our climate sites were: NWS
Twin Cities were 6.5 inches, MSP Int'l Airport at 3.9 inches,
and EAU 4.0 inches. More measurements across the area should
begin to filter in by mid- morning. As always, feel free to
provide your snow total measurement via social media or emailing
our office as its greatly appreciated!
Now that this low has passed, the "fun" part of this winter
storm arrives, i.e. cold temperatures. Colder air is being
channeled between the aforementioned low to our SE and building
high pressure to the west. Across much of MN, breezy NNW'ly
gusts are being reported to range between 20-25mph. These winds
could create a few areas of blowing snow over the next couple of
hours before decreasing this morning. Overcast skies should
transition to partial sunshine by this afternoon. Forecast highs
today will depend on your location. Areas across western MN and
closer to the region of high pressure will see highs in the
teens. Areas east of the St. Croix River Valley will reach reach
the low 20s. Lows area wide tonight will be near 0 degrees.
Surface high pressure continues moving SE'ward into Iowa and
reaching its peak strength ~1036mb Monday. Forecast high
temperature distribution appears uniform near the 20 degree
mark. Skies for most folks will be mostly cloudy although some
sun might try and break through the clouds across southwestern
MN. Lows Monday night will range in the single digits. By
Tuesday, temperatures warm up slightly into lower 20s.
By Wednesday, upper-level troughing sinks southward over the
Hudson Bay below in the mid-levels, a clipper system develops
over Saskatchewan and heads ESE across the Int'l border.
Forecast guidance currently favors a chance of snow showers
during the daytime hours. As of now, snowfall accumulations look
to be only minor featuring a trace up to a half-inch possible.
Strongest chances for any snow to fall are up near Lake Superior
which is outlined well by the latest NBM. Temperatures once
again will be kicked down post-FROPA. Highs will return to the
teens and lows nearing the double digits below zero for early
Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Snowfall has shown significant signs of waning per KMPX radar
over the past hour, and this trend will continue such that by
about 14z, any and all snow is expected to cease. Ceilings will
still dip down into MVFR range for much of the day before
lifting and partially clearing out this evening through tonight.
Another round of MVFR ceilings is possible after sunrise
tomorrow. NW winds around 12G22kt at initialization will drop in
speed to at-or-below 10kts by late morning and continue to drop
to light/variable tonight through sunrise Monday morning.
KMSP...Snow is ending over MSP at initialization, with
visibility already back to VFR levels. However, ceilings may dip
down to MVFR by late morning and continue as such through the
afternoon before partial clearing takes hold tonight. Another
round of low ceilings looks likely late Monday morning but
ceilings at MSP may remain just above MVFR thresholds.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR ceilings likely, chance IFR ceilings. Chance -SN
overnight. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR ceilings likely, chance -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
Goodhue.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 301159
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
559 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow continue to
affect the South Shore this morning. Total accumulations of up
to 6 inches is possible, and Winter Weather Advisories remain
in effect.
- Colder temperatures are expected for the much of the work
week with additional passing chances of snow with weak clipper
systems.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Lake effect snow in combination with the low pressure system as
it moves into southern lower Michigan this morning. The bands
are bringing enhanced snowfall rates to most of the South Shore
this morning, with northeast low level winds and lake surface
temperatures in the low 40s. I expect the bands to persist
through sunrise this morning, even as the winds back more
northerly to shift the bands farther east along the South Shore.
We currently have a Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM for all
four South Shore counties, and depending on where those bands
are will have to make a decision about which counties to extend
and how far into Sunday morning. The lake effect bands should be
east of Iron county no later than noon, though. Returning to
the low pressure system to our southeast, it is adding to the
snowfall over northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota
early this morning. This too should shift east out of the
forecast area during the morning hours. For now the 12z
expiration time of the advisory for Price county still seems
appropriate, but will have to see how things look over the next
couple hours. Elsewhere, we remain in cyclonic flow at the low
levels most of today, that together with the steep low level
lapse rates induced by the pool of cold air moving into the area
at the mid levels, should get some convective-y snow showers
going from mid morning through most of the afternoon. It does
not appear we have a significant risk of snow squalls at this
time. Overall, it will be rather chilly today as compared to
last week, with highs only in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Tonight there are some good indications we should get some
clearing of the cloud cover, that together with the fresh snow,
will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits to around
zero tonight into Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will
also slide across the area, which will help with some lighter
wind speeds overnight.
This upcoming work week will have some rather active weather,
with broad upper level troughing over the Upper Midwest region
which will allow a series of shortwaves to pass across the
Northland. These will bring periodic chances for snow through
the week, but none of these systems look terribly impactful,
bringing light snowfall accumulations. There is low confidence
in timing for these, so pops remain relatively low for now. We
are also looking at near to below normal temperatures for all of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
A slow improvement in conditions is expected through today for
the TAF sites. While KDLH and KHYR have improved to VFR ceilings
this morning, KHYR may have scattered showers with MVFR
conditions for another hour or two. Stratus which has developed
over KINL, KHIB and KBRD is expected to linger for several hours
before the terminals return to VFR by late afternoon. There may
also be a few snow showers, but have only included VCSH groups
for now. The lower ceilings will linger a little longer for
KHYR. North to northeast winds gusting up to 20 knots early this
morning will gradually diminish and then back to northwest this
afternoon, then back farther to southwest by late tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
North-northeast winds early this morning are expected to back
into the northwest through Sunday morning. Observed gusts this
morning have been approaching 30 kts, but should diminish
through the course of the day today. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through today before both winds and waves
diminish later today and tonight. Winds to back into the
southwest Monday morning and increase again before diminishing
once again Monday night. The winds may be strong enough to cause
building waves and hazardous conditions for Small Craft once
again.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
WIZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 10 AM CST this morning
for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
140>142-146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
LSZ143>145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
