mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 302324
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
524 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder than normal conditions continue through and beyond the
first week of December, with the first widespread sub-zero
morning of the season coming Thursday.
- There will be multiple chances for snow over the next week
with passing clippers, but any snow amounts we see will be
very light.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
It's much quieter than 24 hours ago, with the upper midwest under
the influence of a shortwave ridge embedded with the mean long wave
trough that extends from the Great Basin to the mid-Atlantic. For
tonight, the main uncertainty is cloud cover. Large portions of the
area will start the night with clear skies, but we'll also have a
batch of persistent stratus from northwest WI back down to south
central MN. If a location can spend a good 6 hours under clear
skies, then they should be able to drop down below zero given the
light winds, but if clouds persist, then dropping below the teens
above zero will be difficult. Basically, it's a big bust potential
on the lows tonight given the dependence on cloud cover.
For Monday, we'll see the shortwave currently over the 4-corners
region head toward Missouri. Though most of the forcing will remain
south of us, a quick look at soundings show south central through
east central MN and western WI will have favorable moisture and
thermal profiles within the DGZ such that it should take very little
forcing to get some light snow going. We'll have some weak low level
WAA on Monday and we're seeing some models like the RAP and HRRR
having just enough forcing to kick out some very low QPF into
southeast MN and western WI. We switched from NBM over to ConShort
for PoPs on Monday, since the later had some pops in the 20s/30s in
southeastern portions of our CWA. Even if it does snow, over
achieving would be getting a half inch (0.5) of snow, so no
significant impacts are expected with this.
Southerly winds and "milder" temperatures will continue through
Tuesday out ahead of a strong cold front that will slam across our
area Tuesday night. We still anticipate light snow on the front.
However, this is a setup the NBM always struggles with. One or two
hundredths of QPF and a 2-4 hour window for snowfall. It did at
least broad brush some 20-40 PoPs, but we suspect PoPs will increase
for Tuesday night as we get closer and can start nailing down that 2-
4 hour wind for snow. Once again, over achieving for snow with this
front would be getting all of a half inch (0.5) of new snow. Behind
the front, we'll have falling temperatures during the day on
Wednesday, with lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning continuing
to trend colder. This looks like an ideal radiational cooling night
with a fresh snowpack. This mornings run of the NBM now has lows
double digits below zero Thursday morning for all but the core of
the Twin Cities metro in our coverage area. Record lows Thursday
morning are -12 (EAU), -15 (MSP), and -16 (STC), these are some of
the "warmest" record lows in the month of December. Although we're
currently not forecasting any record lows, we will be getting
uncomfortably close.
For the rest of the forecast, it's northwest flow, cold, and
clippers. Within the models, you can find clipper potential locally
Friday, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. In all cases, over achieving
would be 0.2" of liquid and 3 inches of snow with any single wave,
so in all cases, the snow would be cosmetic in nature. As for the
cold, Sunday looks to be the coldest day with another Canadian high
moving through that will be followed by another good chance at going
below zero for lows Sunday night/Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
MVFR stratus over eastern MN and WI will slowly continue east-
southeast, but not clear our WI terminals for the next few
hours. After that, VFR is expected for all terminals until early
Monday morning. Locations that are already clear (western and
central MN) should greatly cool overnight, with soundings
showing a good chance of mist/freezing fog through about
sunrise. Have included MVFR/IFR visibilities at AXN and STC.
Have leaned heavily into the RAP with cloud cover throughout
Monday as soundings show an at least MVFR stratus deck
developing early Monday. IFR to even LIFR is more likely across
western MN where it will be colder. Cigs will rise slightly in
the afternoon but should still remain largely MVFR. Also, added
PROB30s for MVFR visibilities and -SHSN at most terminals
Monday morning into the afternoon as the stratus deck will be
within the DGZ amid weak lift. Winds become light/variable
overnight before becoming south-southwesterly Monday morning and
increasing to 5-10 knots.
KMSP...Expecting the development of another MVFR stratus deck
near 1500 feet after 14Z Monday. Added PROB30 for the
possibility of -SHSN and visibilities down to 5sm late Monday
into the afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR clouds with IFR/-SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...CTG
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
526 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries and light snow showers taper off this evening with a
chilly night expected. Monday morning low temperatures in the single
digits to around zero.
- Next best chance for appreciable light snow accumulations is
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a half to two inches possible
across the Northland. Blustery northwest winds with gusts of 20-
35mph possible Wednesday.
- Colder temperatures through the work week with additional
passing chances of snow with weak clipper systems. Coldest
night is expected to be Thursday night into Friday morning
with widespread lows well below zero. &&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Stratus clouds with flurries and light snow showers are present
across the Northland this afternoon as northwesterly flow on the
backside of yesterday's system brings a couple more hundredths of
precipitation to the area. A few tenths of an inch of snow are
possible through this evening. Winds become southwest overnight into
Wednesday, which should turn any lake effect snow from Lake Superior
back over the open waters. Incoming high pressure should assist in
diminishing widespread snow showers but a mix of clouds is expected
to persist out of which some flurries could persist.
Tonight should see chilly temperatures, but maybe not quite as low
as originally anticipated. Models suggest we'll struggle to get rid
of all our cloud cover, especially downstream of large inland lakes.
With some of that cloud deck hanging around, the lowest temperatures
will be relegated to the areas that do see clear skis. Most of the
area will have morning low temperatures in the single digits and
those areas that do clear out could drop below zero.
Highs in the teens and lows in the single digits above and below
zero are expected through Thursday. There is good agreement for
Thursday morning to be the coldest of the week with the potential
for clearing skies under northwest flow behind a departing system.
There is a 20-50% chance that Thursday morning low actual temps will
be less than -10F across the Northland away from Lake Superior,
which would be the coldest of the season so far.
Through next week, global models are in decent agreement that we'll
remain under northwest flow with a low over Hudson Bay. Within this
flow shortwaves should move along, bringing a persistent train of
Alberta Clipper systems through the week. The first looks to be
Monday evening into Tuesday but this system is weak and fairly
moisture-starved. PWATs are blocked by a transient high pressure
system that blocks northward moving gulf moisture so accumulations
would likely be very minimal but it could be enough to keep overcast
skies around with some flurries. A better chance for some light snow
moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday with a better forced
clipper that pulls some moisture with it as it departs the Canadian
Rockies. Not a super impressive system by any means with global
models suggesting a ~1005mb low and a progressive track, but this is
classic Clipper set up and should bring at least a little snow
refresher for our winter landscape. Decent agreement for 0.05-0.1"
QPF which could mean a dusting to an inch or two across the
Northland by Wednesday morning, slightly higher along the South
Shore with lake enhancement. Some gusty NNW winds are possible
behind this system through the day Wednesday, especially along the
North Shore where gusts of 30+ mph could materialize.
Global ensembles highlight more chances for light snow towards the
end of the week and into the weekend, but solutions are varied at
this point. While most of these systems don't currently look like
they would bring warning level amounts of snow, we do look to just
keep slowly adding light to moderate amounts every couple of days
through the 7 day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Widespread MVFR ceilings still engulf most of the Northland this
evening. There are still a few snow showers percolating across the
region that will dwindle over the next several hours. Ceilings may
briefly improve overnight but we still have favorable probabilities
of MVFR ceilings returning tomorrow as low level moisture rides
southwesterly flow into the region. There is some concern for IFR
ceilings to develop in BRD. If we manage to get a breif period of
clearing this evening then the rapid falling temperatures could lead
to a very low cloud developing in the region tomorrow morning.
Additionally, southwesterly winds will increase tomorrow with gusts
near 20 kts.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Northwest winds should continue to die down into this evening,
becoming southwest overnight into Monday. These southwest winds
could gust over 20 knots by midday to early afternoon, with a slight
chance for some Small Craft Advisories needed. Over the Apostle
Islands and open waters, a hefty lake effect snow band will likely
set up that could lead to an area of localized greatly reduced
visibility. Winds remain southwest into Tuesday but should weaken
Monday evening. Following a weak low pressure system passing Tuesday
night into Wednesday, winds become more northwest and could get
strong again, especially along the North Shore where there is a 10-
20% chance of gale force gusts Wednesday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
140>142-146>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Levens
