Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 251737
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1237 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Friday's system brings widespread rain and gusty winds to the
region. The heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into
Friday night.
- There is a Marginal severe threat for overnight convection
along the I-90 corridor in southern MN.
- A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with
another strong system expected to bring additional widespread
rain on Sunday.
- A more Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with an
active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Strong WAA across SoDak is helping drive the clouds and radar
returns we've been seeing through the night. However, there was
ample dry air on the MPX sounding last night, which has held much of
these returns in the virga category and through the day today,
the virga theme is expected to continue, with perhaps a brief
sprinkle or two fighting its way to the ground through the
morning in west central MN. The big change for today is the
increasing pressure gradient and associated uptick in southeast
winds. The strongest winds are expected in western MN, where
sustained speeds will get up into the 20-25 kt range, just below
wind advisory criteria.
Tonight, showers will spread in across the area from west to east as
a better than 40 kt LLJ and its associated moisture transport move
into the region. We did slow the eastward progression of the rain by
a few hours as it will take time for the dry airmass to be overcome.
In fact, the HREF doesn't really show precip crossing the MN/WI
border until Friday afternoon. We will see periods of showers
and occasional storms through Friday evening, but the heaviest
rain is expected Friday afternoon/evening as PWATs increase to
over 200% of normal (over 1") and h85 winds increase to over 50
kts. The severe risk on Friday continues to be more of an issue
down toward Omaha, with the surface low and warm front expected
to move across southern MN overnight Friday night. The continued
Marginal Risk for severe weather from the SPC for the southern
2 or 3 tiers of counties in MN continues to look adequate to
capture our limited severe storm threat during the overnight
hours.
Saturday continues to offer us a breather before a stronger wave
arrives on Sunday. Once again, the track of the low will be key to
our severe risk, though the 25.00 ECMWF continues to paint an
interesting picture for southeast MN on Sunday, with a warm front
bringing low 60s dewpoints up into southeast MN during the
afternoon. The main question for our severe potential on Sunday is
what kind of instability can we develop behind what will be
widespread WAA convection across the region Saturday night/Sunday
morning. There's still a good deal uncertainty with exactly where
the Sunday low tracks, but it certainly bears keeping a close eye on
as we head for the weekend.
As for rainfall potential, not much has changed with either system.
A widespread 1-2" of rain expected between both systems. From an
overachieving perspective, it's the second low on Sunday that will
have the potential for that, especially for eastern MN and western
WI where Pwats will be more in the ballpark of 1.5" with a favorable
coupled upper jet structure developing as well. We could easily see
a couple of swath of 2-3" with just the second system on its
own from southeast MN up through western WI.
We will dry out for Monday, but we will have zonal flow in place
to start the week. Models are starting to come into agreement
on a westerly jet streak coming across the Dakotas on Tuesday,
with the exit region of this jet streak leading to the
possibility of another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday. Model spread starts to increase
dramatically toward the end of the forecast period, though there
is agreement on the general idea of the flow becoming a bit
more amplified by the second half of next week as another trough
digs into the western CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
High clouds and breezy southeasterly winds will continue through
this evening before we see a mid level cloud deck overspread the
area after 06z or so. -SHRA will move in from the southwest
before sunrise across southern and western Minnesota and
continue to the northeast through mid morning. Cigs/vis will be
low VFR/MVFR with this first round of showers with lower clouds
expected by the end of the period.
KMSP...Highest chances for -SHRA/MVFR tomorrow look to be
between 12 and 15z with a break until late afternoon. Thinking
that higher chances for another round of showers and a few
thunderstorms lies just beyond the end of the forecast period.
Winds will remain gusty out of the southeast.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. -SHRA likely early and overnight. Chc IFR/TS
overnight. Wind SW 15-20 kts becoming NW.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/TS. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts.
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dye
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 251751
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather today with some increased winds out of the
south. Dry in a few portions across northern MN and NW WI
with Min Rhs falling to near 25% this afternoon.
- Active weather pattern picks up tomorrow and carries us into
next week. Two low pressure systems will bring widespread
rain showers and some thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Current conditions/Today:
The Northland finds itself caught between the exiting high pressure
over the Great Lakes and the encroaching Colorado Low this morning.
This will lead to predominately southerly flow streaming across the
region with gusts around 25 mph. Warm air advection will promote
temperatures rising into the 60s. We could still see some dry spots
with Min RHs in the mid 20s across far northern MN and NW WI.
Colorado Low Friday - Saturday:
The aforementioned Colorado Low begins its approach on Friday with
winds turning to out of the east and increasing to gusts around 30
mph. Both the GEFS and Euro Low tracks remain consistent with the
low sliding through southern MN and towards the great Lakes on a
northeast trajectory. Onset times have wavered a bit between
forecast packages with this one blending in some high res guidance
for a delayed approach. Likely from having to overcome some dry air
in the mid levels. Rain showers will become more widespread as we
head into Friday evening. Some embedded thunderstorms remain
possible as low instability can still be found aloft. While the
Northland remains on the northern periphery of the storm for much of
Friday and Friday night the warm sector does look to cross into NW
WI Saturday morning which given some higher bulk shear values we
could see some stronger storms develop briefly. The better dynamics
still remain to our south. SPC does have a marginal risk out just
barely clipping our eastern counties in WI.
Next Low Pressure Sunday - Monday:
A brief lull in the action Sunday morning before another low
pressure treks out of the Plains and northeast towards the Great
Lakes region. Cluster analysis remains in good agreement with high
confidence of swinging an upper level trough through the area
supporting this low. The low tracks however still have quite the
spread to them spanning low centers from eastern ND to western
portions of the UP. Surprisingly, the 00Z suite of deterministic
guidance is in good agreement with taking the track south of Duluth
and through NW WI. This would once again bring the warm sector
through NW WI and could induce some stronger storms. But given the
large spread in low tracks we have low confidence in where
thunderstorms will be able to set up. Regardless of the track, rain
showers will inundated the region once again with the system exiting
Monday afternoon.
Rain Totals:
WPC does have our area highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall given our active pattern. A strong low level jet of 40-50
kts will set up a gulf connection beginning Friday. Our PW values
remain above the 90th percentile through the weekend. Current
guidance suggests an 1-1.5 inches of rain will be possible across
the region with the heaviest rain falling Friday night. Areas that
see embedded thunderstorms will have increased rain totals.
Extended Forecast:
The pattern remain active through next week as additional shortwaves
move through the region carrying PoPs of 20-40% into the end of the
week. We will also see a warming trend with highs ascending into the
upper 60s and low 70s,
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
High pressure has shifted east of the region early this
afternoon and winds speeds are beginning to pick up as a result.
Clouds will begin moving in overnight ahead of our next system.
Any ceiling restrictions will hold off until Friday afternoon,
except for BRD where showers will begin by mid to late morning.
These showers will bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Low
level wind shear will spread across the region tonight and
linger into Friday morning as the low begins to move closer to
the region. As mixing increases by mid to late Friday morning,
LLWS is expected to end.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Northeasterly winds today around 10-15 kts and a few gusts to around
20 kts in the afternoon. An active pattern to end the week and take
us into early next week will see winds increasing on Friday. A
prolonged period of strong winds hazardous to small vessels is
expected through the weekend. A few gales will be possible on Sunday
as well. Additionally, rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms
will spread across the Lake Friday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Britt
