Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 182307
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
507 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry and mild period expected with temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
As the last of the rain/snow mix exits east, we shift back to a
relatively quiet stretch of weather under mostly zonal flow
aloft. A shortwave will pass to our north Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing a slight chance for rain to portions of
central MN and northwest WI along a cold front. Forecast
soundings suggest that dry air above 700mb may limit cloud ice
formation, which would result in a lower ceiling for any rain in
an environment where QPF is only in the hundredths at best.
Ensemble guidance is fairly uniform, suggesting persistent
highs and lows roughly 5-10 degrees above normal all the way
through at least the weekend. A couple strong cyclones form off
the Rockies, but they should stay closer to the Gulf than to us
with cutoff flow stretching as far south as Mexico.
The first real sign of a big shakeup to the pattern does not
come until around Thanksgiving Day. Ensemble mean temperatures
drop about 5-10 degrees below normal, with the potential for
northwest flow to develop aloft. This will be the period to
watch, but for now it should be a quiet late fall week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Mainly MVFR to begin with as satellite shows a thick bank of
stratus which is not looking to move from where it currently is,
leaving only STC/AXN at FEW250/SKC and VFR to start. All sites
will stay MVFR for most of the period, with a period of IFR
possible beginning after 12z through around 18-21z at which
point CIGS will slowly lift back to MVFR and eventually VFR by
end of the period.
KMSP...Satellite shows the BKN025 stratus deck solidifying over
the airport rather than moving out, so elected to keep the
prevailing as MVFR instead of introducing a period of VFR to
begin with. A period of near IFR is expected after 14z,
improving by around 19-20z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S to W 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 190005
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
605 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Precipitation chances return Wednesday through Thursday
afternoon. Rain is the most likely precipitation type, but a
wintry mix cannot be ruled out in far northern Minnesota.
- An active pattern may develop early next week with a colder
than normal airmass moving into central US mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
A surface high pressure to mid-level broad ridge axis exits the
the Upper Midwest tonight as a Canadian Plains shortwave moves
through the Northern Plains. A weak moisture tap along
southwesterly pre-trough flow combines with a few vorticity
maxima to produce increasing precipitation chances late tonight
first in far north-central Minnesota. Dry low-levels at the
start of this precip tomorrow morning and highly localized
forcing highly limits precipitation amounts into the Wednesday
morning hours...still restricted to the Borderlands region.
Temperatures forecast in the low-30s northern Koochiching County
in this time period of a couple of hours either side of sunrise
tomorrow keeps a very slight (10-15%) chance of a Trace of
freezing rain in the greater International Falls, MN region
Wednesday morning.
Temperatures increase Wednesday mid to late morning to negate
any additional freezing rain chances with all precipitation
types expected to be rain and a mix of rain/snow in the
Arrowhead. This primarily rain, but wintry mix, snow chances
spread into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday
evening as the trough moves through northwest Minnesota. The
frontal passage moves through the region Thursday morning and
quickly decrease precip chances Thursday mid-day. A post-frontal
cooler airmass keeps temperatures though above normal, high
temperatures in the low to mid-40s much of this week.
Global ensemble guidance keeps confidence moderate to high on a
more active weather pattern beginning early to mid-next week as
deep troughing is likely to setup in the central U.S. A cooler
than normal airmass is likely to drop southeastward into Upper
Midwest mid-next week. Any precipitation chances in the area
though are only low confidence as the track any system(s) will
continue to be assessed in time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for tonight through tomorrow
morning. MVFR cloud cover and showers will start to move in from
the west starting late morning. The best chance for showers will
be at INL late in the period. There is a low chance (less than
20%) for low ceilings and fog pushing in from the south during
the early morning hours. This would affect BRD, HYR and DLH
potentially with IFR or lower conditions in the hours around
sunrise. Winds overnight will be light and variable before
becoming southerly after sunrise at 10 knots or less.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Light winds will continue into Wednesday morning ahead of a
passing front Wednesday night. That frontal boundary over the
MN/ON/Lake Superior region tomorrow is forecast to create gusty
southwest winds over the far North Shore Wednesday evening into
Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in time for the
Grand Marais to Grand Portage zone beginning Wednesday late PM.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLy
