mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 261135
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing snow will end by late morning in MN, early afternoon
in WI. Gusty winds will slowly weaken, however blowing snow is
likely throughout the day.
- Colder but quiet for Thanksgiving Day.
- Another larger system will move through the region Friday
night into Saturday, with the southern half of Minnesota
seeing the best chance for accumulating snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Snow continues to fall this morning as the upper level low which
helped reinforce the surface low churns over Wisconsin towards Lake
Michigan as of around 230am, with the strongest echoes in northern
Wisconsin as lake effect from Lake Superior. A few stronger bursts
of snow are falling over our coverage area despite rather meager
radar coverage, as the beam height away from our radar is
overshooting the low level cloud deck producing most of the snow now
that our temperatures have cooled and the DGZ is closer to the
ground. Periodic snow showers are expected to continue through most
of the morning and diminish slowly into the early afternoon from
west to east. Observations continue to remain relatively sparse as
we await our morning COOP/CoCoRaHS observations to give us some
details on amounts throughout the area, but generally we have seen
the lower end of the expected forecast range due to a few factors.
These factors include the strong winds which have sheared apart
larger snowflakes resulting in a struggle to accumulate in addition
to making it difficult to measure , warmer ground temperatures as
snow started keeping it from sticking right away, and lastly the
banded nature of snowfall making for pockets of lower/higher
amounts. Overall the system has performed as expected with ongoing
travel impacts this morning expected to linger through the morning
commute until crews can work on the roadways. The 511 map across MN
shows partial to full snow coverage of most of the road network, and
also includes some ice covered roadways due to the falling
temperatures. Give yourself some extra time while commuting this
morning just to be safe, and if you plan on traveling ahead of the
holiday tomorrow it might be prudent to wait until the afternoon to
allow crews time to clear things up.
Winds will remain blustery today with gusts continuing at 30-40mph
until the evening until the surface low pushes over the eastern
Great Lakes and our pressure gradient weakens, with temperatures
struggling to get out of the mid 20s. As the upper level low departs
alongside the surface low, conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday
look to be relatively quiet with breezy northwesterly winds at
around 10-15mph with some occasional gusts in addition to
partly/mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will fall into the mid to
upper teens during the morning, only rebounding to the low to mid
20s by the afternoon. Travel conditions will have improved
significantly compared to today, so anyone doing same day travel
should be free from any major issues. Temperatures once again fall
into the low teens with some single digit lows in west-central
Minnesota Friday morning, followed by another day with highs in the
20s. Clouds will increase on Friday ahead of our next potential
system, which has shifted significantly over the last 24 hours and
now looks like a classic Colorado Low type of setup into Saturday
which gives us the potential for additional accumulating snow. Right
now, the setup looks to be the formation of a surface low as a
trough swings across the Colorado mountains, strengthening as it
pushes northeast towards Iowa and into northern Illinois/southern
Wisconsin. The trajectory of the surface low will be important, as a
closer proximity will mean increased chances for impactful snow
accumulations favoring southern Minnesota but potentially making it
to the northern border of our CWA. For now, the ensemble guidance
doesn't show a distinct consensus on the low track, and keeps it
close enough such that the forecast has escalated compared to
yesterday with almost double the QPF and snow amounts potentially
rivaling our current system. This is especially important to pay
attention to for anyone doing post-holiday travel, and we hope to
have some better details after our current system moves out of the
region and some of the high resolution guidance comes in range.
Behind the early weekend system, surface high pressure and cold
850mb temperatures will keep arctic air locked in place to begin the
month of December, with highs struggling to get into the 20s and
lows in the single digits across much of the area. The longer range
ensemble guidance shows this pattern continuing through at least the
first week of the month and possibly even a bit beyond. Once you get
beyond the middle of next week, there is enough fluctuation within
the guidance to keep a low confidence forecast with an airmass shake
up not completely out of the question.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Light snow will taper off from west to east this morning. MVFR
cigs and IFR vsbys will accompany the snow, then MVFR cigs will
continue through the rest of the period. Gusty northwest winds
will ease this evening.
KMSP...Light snow will continue to about 14Z, then taper off.
MVFR cigs and gusts around 35 kts expected through the day, then
winds ease this evening.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW to NE 5-10 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-SN. Wind NE to NW 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Anoka-
Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-
Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Ramsey-
Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
Watonwan-Wright.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Martin.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for Faribault-
Freeborn-Martin.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Barron-
Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 261209
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
609 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy snow continues east of the US 53/I-85 corridor this
morning, with a couple enhanced bands showing up across the
Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Blizzard conditions are
possible along the South Shore. Strong winds also expected
elsewhere could lead to blowing snow.
- Snow enhancement from a gravity wave and lake effect snow will
lead to higher snow totals across northwest Wisconsin,
particularly at higher elevations.
- After this system, cooler air is here to stay for the rest of
the forecast period. Highs will be in the 20s and lows in the
teens for the rest of the week. Low temperatures at or below
zero are expected Sunday and Monday nights.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
A deepening surface low is moving through central WI this
morning, with significant snowfall ongoing along and east of
the US-53/I-35 corridor. Recent snowfall measurements at the
office indicate snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour continue where
enhanced banding is noted on radar. Back to the west, light snow
continues to fall from Grand Rapids to the Brainerd Lakes
region. Will see the back edge of snowfall move through north
central MN this morning, possible clearing the US-53 corridor in
MN as early as mid day. Surface winds area wide will remain
strong due to the tightened pressure gradient. This will cause
blowing snow and reduced vis even after snow ends. Have replaced
the Winter Storm Warning for the southwest counties with an
Advisory, as accumulations through the rest of the morning will
be 1-2 inches, but the strong winds will cause blowing snow and
vis reductions. Will maintain the other headlines as is for now.
The surface low will pivot to the northeast over the Michigan
UP this morning, with a north to south oriented LLJ strengthens
over the Arrowhead as the upper level low moves to our south.
This will enhance a gravity wave over western Lake Superior and
portions of northern Douglas and Bayfield counties, with
additional snowfall totals up to 10 inches possible in that
localized band. Further east, over portions of Ashland and Iron
counties, the lake effect snow machine will set in as deep
layer northwest winds persist across the lake. This will lead
to additional snowfall totals of 10 to 24 inches through
Thursday morning, with locally higher amounts. With strong
winds, gusting up to 45mph, blowing snow will reduce
visibilities, and will maintain the Blizzard Warning for the
counties along the South Shore.
Snow will end over the Arrowhead this afternoon and evening, and
over most of the northwest Wisconsin tonight. Drier air will
slide in from the west as surface high pressure slides southward
through the Plains. This will maintain cold northwest flow over
the Northland, bringing temperatures down to below average for
the end of the week. With active cyclonic flow over the area
Thursday, and winds crossing the lake, will keep a 20 pop in
for most of northwest Wisconsin outside of the active snow belt,
for light snow showers. Moisture might be shallow but lapse
rates steep within that saturated layer during the day.
The next system moves into the area for the weekend. Model
guidance continues to keep the open shortwave and surface low
well to our south, and therefore better dynamics are removed
from the area. Profiles do show deep saturation across the area,
but weaker lapse rates. Right now, best accumulations will be
across portions of northwest Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday
night, with a few inches possible. Another surge of cold air
arrives behind that system, that will bring our temperatures
down to 15 degrees below normal for early next week. Highs in
the teens and around or below 0F are possible.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
A Winter Storm continues across the Northland this morning, with
heaviest snowfall now over portions of the Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin. Light snow showers will continue from INL
to DLH, with the back edge expected to continue eastward through
the morning. Strong northwest winds will continue, resulting in
blowing snow and vis as low as 1 mile. Wind gusts of 30-35kts
through the day, will weakening slightly this evening. Current
cigs are in the 2-3kft range, and some lowering to around 1500ft
is possible this morning, but do not expect IFR cigs.
Heaviest snow has now shifted over northwest WI, with a gravity
wave becoming the dominant features over Bayfield and Douglas
counties. Elsewhere, including HYR, light to moderate snowfall
continues. The snow will continue there through mid afternoon,
with strong northwest winds causing blowing snow and bringing
vis down to 1/2 mile at times. MVFR cigs will also remain across
the area through the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Strong north winds will continue this morning as a winter storm
system slowly moves east of the area, and become northwesterly
this afternoon. Gusts of 40-45kts are possible. Wave heights
will continue to build for a few hours this morning, especially
along the South Shore and Outer Apostles, and slowly subside
through the afternoon. Heights of 7-10 ft along the South Shore
and 12-16 ft around the Apostles and Bayfield Peninsula
remain possible. Gale Warnings are in effect for all western
Lake Superior near shore waters into Thursday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ012-
019>021-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ025-026-
033>036.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ038.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ006>009.
Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ001-002.
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
