mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 072325
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold again tonight, but warmer on Monday & Tuesday.
- Multiple chances for snow the first half of this week, with the
most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night.
- Cold temperatures return to end the work week with below zero
temperatures likely at night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Mostly Clear skies & light northwest winds are present across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures remain cold, often in the single
digits, with wind chills a few degrees either side of 0F. Cloud
cover will increase overnight as a surge of warm air advection on
the back side of the sfc high pressure. This will lead to our first
of several precip events this week. Light snow will push east into
western MN by this evening and move southeast into southern MN
through tonight before tapering off Monday morning. We should all be
prepared for these types of events considering the number of them
we've encountered over the last two weeks. Snowfall rates will be
light with amounts likely be less than an inch. Snow may reach into
the Twin Cities metro, but accumulations will be general less than
a half inch. Still, partially snow covered roads could lead to
slippery travel conditions Monday morning. Lows Sunday night will
fall in the single digits.
Monday offers a much warmer day than Sunday. High temperatures will
be in the mid 20s with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. A quick moving
system will move across the International border with the bulk of
precip falling north of our forecast area, but central MN will see
some minor accumulations Monday evening into Monday night. This
system should produce a little more snowfall so an inch or two from
Alexandria to Mille Lacs seems reasonable. Another dusting in the
Twin Cities metro will keep our snow globe active.
On Tuesday, a larger & better organized system will impact the Upper
Midwest. Guidance continues to highlight a classic Alberta clipper
that drops into western MN by Tuesday afternoon, traveling southeast
along I-94 through MN & WI, and into the southern Great Lakes by
Wednesday morning. A rapidly deepening surface low will move in
along an impressive shortwave that will bring with it a strong surge
of warm air advect ahead of the surface low. The track of the
surface low will be very important for where and what types of
precipitation fall. It may be difficult to believe, but temperatures
likely warm into the 30s on Tuesday and possibly lower 40s in SW MN.
Precipitation is on tap to begin as snow, possibly heavy, as the
initial band moves in Tuesday afternoon. I-94 will act as the split
for those north/east of the interstate remaining all snow while
those west/south of I-94 will likely see snow turn to a wintry mix
by Tuesday evening. The energy tied to our shortwave remains off the
coast of Canada & has yet to be fully sampled by ROAB network. This
means there will be fine tuning to the surface low's track over the
next 24 hours so wobbles in guidance shouldn't lead to drastic
change our messaging. Headlines have been punted for now, but I
would assume watches will be issued overnight or early Monday ahead
of this system. Why will the surface low track be so important?
Guidance highlights an area of strong WAA forecast to occur to the
south and east of the surface low. Our surface temperatures will
warm into the mid to upper 30s in the warm sector. This will likely
result in a period of Wintry mix and possibly plain rain on Tuesday.
If the low nudges further south - those in the Twin Cities metro may
get lucky and remain mostly snow. If it nudges further north, we'll
likely see more rain & likely melt a good portion of our current
snow pack. For those along & north of I-94, temperatures remain
below freezing such that a rain to snow transition is not expected.
A brief transition to freezing rain is also possible as forecast
soundings show a warm nose overrunning the subfreezing surface
temperatures. Guidance tends to produce about 0.40-0.75" of QPF
within the heaviest swath of precipitation. Snow ratios remain near
climo (12:1 to 13:1), we can expect a swath of 4-6" (locally 6"+) of
snow for those in the "sweet spot" just north of the warm sector.
The heaviest snow would be along and just north of this corridor.
Collaboration with neighboring offices led to a deferral of any
winter headlines for now, but they will be needed in the near
future for at least our central MN into west-central WI counties.
This is a quintessential clipper system that looks to bring a quick
hit of snow to many along the I-94 corridor from Fargo, ND to
Detroit, MI.
After Wednesday, our forecast will begin to turn drier, but much
colder as a potent cold air mass from northwest Canada slides down
the Rockies into the Northern Plains. The end of the week looks
quite frigid as long-range ensemble forecast highs struggling to
exceed single digits for both Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile,
nighttime lows should plummet well below zero. Some guidance
supports wind chill temperatures in the -20F's that would likely
require a cold headline at the end of this forecast period.
Something to keep in mind as we thaw out Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
VFR to start the period with snow moving in from west to east
tonight. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions as the snow moves
through. Best chances for snow at RWF. Little to no snow chances
for Wisconsin terminals. MVFR conditions will linger into
tomorrow. Another round of snow will impact mainly central
Minnesota late in the period impacting mainly AXN and STC.
Starting with PROB30 for now until the areal impact of this
round of snow becomes more apparent.
KMSP... Confident we will see some snow again late tonight/early
morning with an MVFR impact. There is a chance for some IFR
impacts, so added in a TEMPO. MVFR lingers after the snow and
there could be a drop into IFR tomorrow night if the snow makes
it far enough south to impact the terminal area.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15G30 kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 072350
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
550 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Arrowhead
Monday late morning through Monday night for 2 to 5 inches of
snow. Around 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected elsewhere.
- More snow is expected Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday with potential for widespread accumulating snow and
difficult travel possible for the Tuesday afternoon and early
Wednesday morning commute.
- Additional light snow episodes are possible late-week into
next weekend along with cold air and below-zero temperatures
likely at night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Pretty quiet weather out there this afternoon. There are some
lake-effect clouds in northwest wind affecting parts of NW
Wisconsin. Little impacts are expected from that with drier air
moving in from the west/northwest into tonight…just a bit of
light snow possible with minor accumulations. A very quick
clipper passes by to our south tonight as well. Some flurries
could graze north-central Minnesota.
Clipper #1:
Attention turns to the first clipper that moves in late Monday
afternoon and drops some light to perhaps occasionally moderate
snow Monday night, quickly moving out early Tuesday morning.
This is still looking like largely a 1-3” event, but some places
(especially in northeast Minnesota, particularly the Arrowhead)
could see some 4” to maybe 5” totals by Tuesday morning as a
lake-effect snow band moves onshore during Monday morning. This
will likely be mainly a shore-parallel lake-effect band, so
areas right along the shore from roughly Grand Marais to Grand
Portage will have the best chance of seeing some of those
locally higher totals. We did decide to issue Winter Weather
Advisories for the Arrowhead for the possibility for some of
these higher amounts. It’s possible that some localized amounts
to 4” could happen for parts of Koochiching, North St. Louis,
and Central St. Louis counties as well, but confidence is not
high enough that advisory-level snows will fall at this time, so
headlines were not issued there. All-in-all, a quick-hitting
clipper.
Clipper #2:
The next clipper arrives Tuesday afternoon with some more snow
that should affect the evening commute. Still dealing with some
storm track differences among ensemble members with this one,
but generally it does continue to look more intense and more
capable of producing more widespread advisory snowfall amounts
for a good portion of the Northland. Some strong ascent
associated with warm air advection and frontogenesis ahead of
the low will likely produce a narrow band of higher snowfall
totals/rates Tuesday evening that could lead to some localized
~6” snowfall amounts. Where that happens could be anywhere
between Duluth and Hinckley and points roughly west-northwest
and east-southeast of that general line. Confidence is only
30-50% that such high totals (6” or more) could happen there,
and wherever they do happen will probably be in a narrow swath.
With such uncertainty still remaining, and also considering the
fact that we have the first clipper to deal with first, we
decided not to issue any Winter Storm Watches with this update.
If we were to do so, we would have to issue for too broad of an
area. Most likely, widespread Winter Weather Advisories will be
needed. Other factors influencing the decision not to issue a
Winter Storm Watch are that winds are not expected to be very
strong (a bit breezy, but it shouldn’t cause widespread blowing
snow), and extreme cold is not expected to be a factor either.
If models do come into better agreement on a location for this
potentially locally heavier snow band, and if snowfall amounts
around or slightly in excess of 6” remain possible, then
additional headlines may be considered in later updates. The
best vertical ascent will be for several hours Tuesday evening,
and snowfall rates could reach around 1”/hr for a few hours,
yielding the ~3-6” totals for many areas. Travel will likely
become difficult for the Tuesday evening commute and possibly
lingering into Wednesday morning. This second clipper will move
out Wednesday morning. Some lake-effect will probably persist
along the South Shore as winds turn north to northwesterly. Some
additional light accumulations will be possible there into
Wednesday night.
More Clippers?
Following the departure of the second system on Wednesday, we
are monitoring the potential for a third, weaker clipper late in
the week, though the track of that system remains uncertain.
Regardless, as these systems pass through, models suggest
dominant northwest flow, ushering arctic air into the region for
the weekend with lows potentially dropping well below zero
overnight again. Lake-effect will likely become a bit more
persistent along the South Shore as well later this week into
the weekend with all these clippers and cold air passing through
to keep the lake machine agitated.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected through tonight under increasing
high-level sky cover. Flurries are possible in the Northland
after 09Z as a weak band of snow moves through central
Minnesota. Expect light snow potential even into the Brainerd
Lakes region late tonight into early Monday morning. A different
clipper moves into north-central Minnesota Monday afternoon and
creates increasing light to moderate snowfall amounts and
lowering visibilty/ceilings as a result from 20Z Mon - 02Z Tue.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Southwest winds will ramp up on Monday ahead of the first
clipper system. Small Craft Advisories have been issued as gusts
are expected to approach 25 to 30 knots and waves build to 3 to
5 feet, particularly along the North Shore and Outer Apostle
Islands. Winds briefly lessen going into Tuesday morning. Then,
as another clipper system moves in Tuesday afternoon, expect
gusty northeast winds to develop, which will likely cause
hazardous conditions for small craft. There is a a 20 to 60
percent chance of gales (gusts over 34 knots) on Wednesday
morning as winds shift northerly behind the departing low.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for MNZ012-020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
LSZ121-140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...JDS
