mn discuss
Office: MPX
FXUS63 KMPX 242341
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain showers possible late tonight through Saturday
morning. Rainfall amounts will be light.
- Seasonable temperatures this weekend, with afternoon highs in
the 50s to lower 60s.
- Rain chances return early next week, however rainfall amounts
have trended down as a weaker system appears likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...
Friday afternoon water vapor imagery offers a fantastic look at
the potent shortwave that is digging south into Upper Midwest.
The swift southeastward movement of the shortwave will be the
driver of rain chances tonight into early Saturday. Ahead of the
shortwave, abundant sunshine and light southeasterly winds allowed
for a quick warm up. We've observed morning lows in the 20s
climb into the 50s, with still a couple hours of warming ahead.
Forecast high temperatures (60s western MN to lower 50s western
WI) are on track.
Visible satellite reveals an uptick in cloud cover ahead of the
incoming shortwave. We'll see the sunshine give way to the cloud deck
this evening, which will precede the aforementioned rain chances.
There are a few key pieces to the forecast for precipitation
tonight. It's one of those forecasts where there are both pros
and cons, but the setup has the "look" of a scenario that will
produce light rain across a good portion of eastern MN/western
WI. Let's discuss:
The antecedent airmass is fairly dry, owing to expansive 1020s mb
Canadian high pressure, and is reflected by dew points in the
low to mid 30s. However, increasing warm advection and at least
modest isentropic ascent should work to increase mid-level
saturation as the shortwave approaches. A wedge of low-level
dry air evident on forecast soundings is expected to saturate in
some fashion, however the residence time of the saturation at
any one location is short given the swift moving nature of the
clipper. Typically we would look to this setup for some
virga/perhaps very light QPF (especially with higher cloud
bases). However, the strength of synoptic/QG forcing associated
with this shortwave cannot be ignored and it's also possible
that transient mid-level frontogenic forcing (~5C temperature
gradient across the CWA at the 700mb level) may play a role,
resulting in slightly more efficient rainfall rates and
moistening of the lower levels. The model spread features just
about every solution, from dry air winning out to mid-level
forcing driving precipitation amounts up to a half inch or so.
With all of said, the NBM has trended upwards today, likely as
a result of some of the more bullish CAM guidance overnight.
Have opted to advertise a lower QPF/higher PoP scenario, which
is reflected by storm total QPF <0.2" paired with 40-60 percent
PoPs. Majority of locations should observe precipitation totals
below a tenth of an inch.
Precipitation chances will end from NW to SE through tomorrow
morning. Latest guidance is a bit more pessimistic with the clearing
of stratus, so have collaborated with neighboring offices to
pull the afternoon highs back a few degrees and lag the cloud
cover a bit longer. Should see sunshine returning for the second
half of the weekend, which will push temperatures back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s for afternoon highs on Sunday.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
Over the past few days we've observed a myriad of solutions with
evolution of a longwave trough and associated precipitation chances
early next week. While forecast confidence remains on the lower
side, we do have a growing picture of how things may evolve. By
Sunday evening, global guidance depicts a split flow regime
over the central CONUS due to blocking high pressure over
southern Canada/the Great Lakes. The omega block scenario will
likely yield a weaker system overall, which is reflected by
lower QPF amounts this afternoon. With high uncertainty in how
the upper-level features will evolve after mid-week, I like the
latest output from the NBM which produces 30-50% PoPs Monday &
Tuesday and runs drier on Wednesday. Given the orientation of
the upper-level features, the highest PoPs are across western
MN and the lowest are over western WI. Latest QPF from WPC is
similar, with up to a half inch of rainfall across western &
central MN and only up to a tenth across western WI. Temperatures
in the upper 40s/lower 50s are forecast for the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Main concern is timing and location of any light rain late tonight.
Incoming short wave from the northwest was spreading mid level
clouds into central MN and eventually western WI and southern
MN. Dry lower levels at this time, hence radar echoes in central
MN are aloft with some virga. But better low level moisture
just southwest of MN will reach southern and east central MN and
western WI late tonight, and have thus mentioned precip for
that time. There is some chance for MVFR ceilings, but have
indicated low end VFR for now. Once the short wave exits to the
southeast after daybreak Saturday, clouds will be slow to
scatter out, likely not until late afternoon.
KMSP...There is some chance for prevailing light rain late
tonight, but it looks too questionable right now to go more than
a tempo group. Will go with prevailing in later updates if
trends become more clear. If light rain is prevailing, there is
the potential for MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet AGL, which
could linger as late as 16Z, if it happens. Confidence is a
little above average at this point in the current forecast.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Slgt chc -RA. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...TDK
Office: DLH
FXUS63 KDLH 242353
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
653 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick-moving Clipper system will bring a chance for light
rain this evening into tonight, mainly around the Brainerd
Lakes to I-35 corridor.
- Dry and warm conditions expected this weekend into early next
week.
- Two rounds of precipitation will be possible mid to late next
week. The first chance will be on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning and the second chance will be on Thursday into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
After a chilly start this morning with low temperatures in the teens
to 20s, conditions as of early this afternoon have been seasonably
pleasant with temps in the mid 40s to low 50s and mostly clear
skies. Expect cloud cover to increase this evening into tonight as a
quick-moving shortwave propagates through the CWA. Dynamic forcing
associated with this Clipper system is quite favorable, which would
be supportive of higher precipitation rates. However, the limiting
factors for heavier precipitation amounts in the CWA will be PWAT of
0.7" and a layer of drier air in the low-levels appearing in hi-res
model soundings reducing the amount of QPF. Highest rainfall amounts
will be around the Brainerd Lakes to the I-35 corridor with amounts
around the 0.05-0.2" range. Locally higher amounts exceeding
0.25" will be possible, but the potential is low at a 20%
chance.
Temperatures tonight will be warmer compared to this morning,
especially in the areas that will be seeing light rain from the
Clipper, with lows ranging from around 30 in the Arrowhead and north-
central WI to around 40 degrees in north-central MN. Conditions
won't be rancid this weekend as ridging occurs over the upper
Great Lakes region, keeping things dry. Temperatures this
weekend will likely be unseasonably warm with high temps in the
50s to near 60 degrees, especially on Sunday. For context,
normal high temps this time of year are around the upper 40s to
50 degrees.
The next system of interest arrives to the Upper Midwest late Monday
as a deep trough moves west into the region. Global guidance
suggests that this deep trough will likely develop an area of cutoff
low pressure on Tuesday, which will be moving into the lower
Mississippi River Valley. In our region, a band of precipitation
will be centered around the Red River Valley and could impact
western portions of the CWA. However, a lobe of vorticity will
likely be ejected from a second cutoff low over New England and
retrograde into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This retrograding
lobe of vorticity aloft is likely to bring a dry layer into the CWA,
which could greatly limit any rain chances on Tuesday. Still
maintaining a chance of rain in the forecast for now, but this could
trend drier as we get closer to Tuesday.
In the extended forecast, global models show the potential for
additional precipitation late next week on Thursday and Friday.
While there are indications of precipitation, there is high
disagreement regarding timing and location. Therefore,
confidence is low at this time in regards to precipitation type,
probability of occurrence, and timing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
A weak shortwave trough is bringing an area of light rain
showers through BRD at the moment, and it may clip DLH/HIB and
pass through HYR later this evening. Visibilities are expected
to remain VFR as intensity remains light to perhaps briefly
moderate. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR as well. A period
of LLWS is possible at INL tonight as a low level jet
strengthens behind the departing trough. On Saturday, VFR
conditions at all terminals with some occasional blustery south
winds gusting up to 15 to 20 kt.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
South to southeast winds are expected this afternoon through
Saturday night with winds around 10 knots or less and gusts up to 15
knots. A Clipper System moves through central Minnesota tonight, but
impacts to western Lake Superior are not expected outside of a
slight chance for a light shower. There is the potential for
stronger southeast winds that could lead to Small Craft Advisory
conditions late Sunday into early next week. Otherwise, expect
conditions for much of this weekend to be fairly benign.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Unruh
