mi discuss
Office: MQT
FXUS63 KMQT 281947
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect snow diminishes this evening and tonight.
- Next chance of widespread precipitation occurs Friday night and
Saturday. A quick round of around 2 inches of wet snow is expected,
with a 15-30% chance of light freezing rain in the interior west.
- Another system arrives in the Great Lakes Mon/Tue, bringing
chances for rain/snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
GOES 16 visible imagery on loop show the continued cloud cover
stretching downwind of Lake Superior into Upper Michigan thanks to
continued cyclonic flow tied to an exiting mid-upper level low and
lake induced instability. Within this flow, snow showers have
persisted into the Keweenaw, as have light snow or flurries across
the Michigamme Highlands and Gogebic Range per webcams and surface
obs. The overall trend though has been decreasing activity, thanks
to mid-level ridging inching across the Northern Plains and surface
high sliding into Wisconsin. This is supporting increasing dry air
into the column. Daytime highs have so far climbed into the 20s
across the west and low 30s south and east.
For the remainder of today and tonight, snow shower activity should
continue to diminish in the Keweenaw and west half, but increase
some across the east near Lake Superior thanks to increasing surface
convergence associated with a weak surface trough. Additional snow
accumulations should be less then an inch. Elsewhere, conditions
should be dry. Light winds set in across the region with lows
dipping into the teens interior west and near 20 or low 20s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
An active weather pattern will remain in the mid latitudes for the
long term forecast period. A 500mb ridge will build in to provide
dry weather Friday ahead of an approaching shortwave riding the
US/Canada border. This will bring a quick round of mainly light
precipitation before conditions aloft go zonal to slightly ridging,
which should usher in seasonal, if quiet, weather into next week. A
deeper trough then ejects out of the Rockies, which may bring
impactful weather to the UP, but will be highly sensitive to minor
variations in the track of the resulting surface low pressure. The
end of next week looks dry as ridging builds back over the Upper
Great Lakes.
Friday, approaching surface ridging will end snow showers at or
before 12Z. The 12Z HREF shows a brief period of scattered to clear
skies before high clouds build in from the west. The HREF also shows
a lake breeze off of both Lakes Michigan and Superior, which will
help moderate lakeshore temperatures somewhat, but not before
temperatures in the southern UP climb into the mid 40s.
The calm will be interrupted by a shortwave that will be
traveling along the USA/Canada border through Saturday. This
will support a weak 1005 mb (12Z GEFS mean) surface low pressure
passing through the Upper Great Lakes and precipitation chances
begin over the UP around midnight Friday into Saturday. With
surface temperatures in the low 30s and upper 20s overnight, wet
10:1 - 15:1 snow should be the dominant precip type, but the
LREF shows about a 15-30% chance of FZRA in the interior west
and ~15% chances of rain or sleet elsewhere. Even on that chance
that FZRA forms, not much glaze should form given the previous
warmer temperatures heating up the ground. LREF QPF accumulation
probabilities show a 40% chance that the western UP could
exceed 0.25 inches, dropping to 10-20% in the central UP. This
works out to roughly 2 inches of wet snow accumulation Saturday,
which could locally cause some sloppy travel conditions, but
widespread winter impacts should be minimal.
-Flow goes zonal Sun despite shortwave passing to the north due to
amplifying southeast CONUS ridging and surface high dropping south
along the western shores of Hudson Bay
-This high may depress approaching Colorado Low too far south, but
model spread is high
-Keeping PoPs despite historically these setups aren't favorable
plus trend lately given persistent chances for impactful weather
-Dry wx to follow
Following the passage of the shortwave, the flow aloft goes
zonal even in spite of a stronger shortwave passing to the north
on Sunday. This is due to a ridge over the southeastern US
amplifying, and as a result, Sunday into Monday should be mostly
quiet with near- seasonal temperatures. Upstream, a deeper
trough will be exiting the Rockies, supporting a deep Colorado
Low which will arrive in the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday. The GEFS
shows some of these low centers falling into the 970s mb,
though the mean is closer to 990mb. It will bear some monitoring
how this low interacts with a surface high following the
western shores of Hudson Bay from north to south ahead of the
low's arrival. NBM PoPs have trended south the last couple of
runs, signaling that the high may be depressing the low too far
south. Given how storms lately have generally trended south with
consecutive model runs and how positively-tilted troughs
without a supporting northern stream shortwave have not
supported significant systems, forecaster confidence is
pessimistic about the potential for impactful weather next week.
However, with almost half of the LREF showing 6 inches of more
of accumulated snowfall by the end of next week, the potential
of higher winter impacts is too high to ignore. Ridging should
build in behind the passage of the low, providing dry weather to
end the week, though a brief period of LES following the low
cannot be ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Lake effect snow showers and cloud cover will continue this
afternoon and overnight. Most, if not all, snow shower activity
should be limited to KCMX with the trend being diminishing activity
this evening. Gusty westerly winds upwards of 25-30 kts and blowing
snow will also continue into the evening hours at KCMX. Ceilings
will gradually lift to VFR this evening and overnight at all sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
With low pressure departing to the north and high pressure building
in, westerly winds 25-30 kt over Lake Superior will veer
northwesterly and fall below 20 kt by Friday morning. A weak low
pressure passing in the vicinity of Lake Superior overnight Friday
into Saturday will briefly cause northeasterly winds to funnel in
the west half of the lake, resulting in gusts to 25 kt. Otherwise,
under weak surface pressure gradients, Lake Superior will remain
below 20 kt winds until the middle of next week when a stronger low
pressure passing through the Great Lakes basin will increase wind
gusts, but uncertainty is high about track, timing, and intensity of
the low pressure.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
for LSZ240.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
LSZ241>243.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LSZ244.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...GS
Office: DTX
FXUS63 KDTX 281910
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
310 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry today with afternoon gusts to 30 mph, then chilly
again tonight.
- Temperatures trend near-normal Friday with more sun than clouds.
- Showers arrive Saturday morning with a rumble of thunder possible
midday as coverage of rain decreases.
- Some additional showers are possible Sunday and Monday while
temperatures settle near seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sparse diurnal cumulus response underway this afternoon as Southeast
Michigan situates within a narrow kinematic lull aloft as low-level
anticyclonic flow to the south encroaches on deep-layer upper low
pressure to north, deflecting the system poleward into Hudson Bay.
The dry slot associated with the low presents well in mid-level GOES
vapor imagery, arcing southwest across Windsor, Chicago, and
eventually northward into the Upper Midwest. Perturbed speed max
shearing off the upstream ridge targets the Ohio Valley spurring
thicker clouds and showers which should hold just south of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. Will continue to advertise
dry PoPs today and tonight in light of subsaturated forecast
soundings and PWATs generally holding AOB 0.25 inches over the next
24-36 hours. Largely unencumbered isolation window with increasingly
westerly flow may prove insufficient for highs to break 50F across
Metro Detroit per latest ensemble suite. Dropped highs by a degree
or two given the struggle to get enough positive low-level thermal
advection and mixing. Seasonably cold again tonight without the aid
of longwave trapping cloud shield, therefore overnight lows should
dip well below freezing again, into the mid-upper 20s.
Synoptic-scale ridge tracks eastward across the Great Lakes Friday
reinforcing column subsidence and dry conditions. The thermal trough
currently residing across much of Lower Michigan appears slow to
retreat Friday, but 850 mb temps should recover above 0C across the
entire CWA by late evening. Diffuse pressure gradient lends weak
winds, generally from the west. Decent temperature gradient sets up
from south to north, tied to the departure of the cold pool (and an
advancing warm front) which offers a broad range of high
temperatures Friday. Upper 50s expected near the Ohio Border while
readings only creep into the 40s across The Thumb. Clouds increase
Friday night ahead of a 1004 mb surface low lifting into the region.
The associated lower tropospheric jet activity draws an increasingly
confluent ThetaE feed up the Mississippi. Aside from maybe Lenawee
and Washtenaw counties, precipitation should hold-off until after
09Z.
Precip shield from the aforementioned low lifts northeastward early
Saturday morning with sharp isentropic ascent resulting in rapid
saturation. FGEN enhancements lend some potential for rainfall rates
to exceed a tenth of an inch per hour during the peak. Thermodynamic
profiles are very stable with a surface-based inversion extending
between 2 kft and 4 kft AGL until the afternoon limiting mechanical
mixing. Although the veering of mid-upper level winds from WSW to
WNW will occur gradually midday, dry advection helps to rapidly
clear out clouds aloft as minor steepening of lapse rates ensues.
Some elevated instability is noted on the order of a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE. Can't completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two,
but stabilization trends lend low confidence a this time. Given the
earlier timing of the warm frontal progression, the warm sector
should bring temperatures closer to 60F near the state-line.
High pressure builds in quickly Sunday with some lingering clouds
while models have shifted to a more prominent (and northerly)
feature extending through the Ohio Valley. Some afternoon showers
are possible south of M-59 Sunday afternoon/evening before the
longwave pattern aligns more favorably Monday into Tuesday for
widespread rainfall. Temperatures will generally be near-normal
during this time. Next shot for colder air expected mid-late week
with a more wintry precipitation type possibly mixing in with any
precipitation.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure extending southeast from Manitoba continues building
east into the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. Breezy WSW
wind will weaken this evening as a result and shift to predominantly
WNW Friday at around 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure moves
through the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing rain and snow
to parts of the region. Winds organize out of the E/NE ahead of the
system early Saturday then shift to NW as it passes by to the south.
High pressure builds in early Sunday with light and variable winds.
This will be short-lived as multiple disturbances track across the
region Sunday night through the early week. At this time winds look
to remain below marine headline criteria.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through today and tonight under mostly
clear skies. Dry air has kept any diurnal cloud development limited
in the FEW to SCT coverage and mainly across MBS and the metro
terminals in the 3-5 kft range. Winds will be out of the WSW through
the remainder of today with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Stable
conditions tonight under clear skies with a light wind of 5 knots or
less turning more westerly into tomorrow morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....AA
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Office: APX
FXUS63 KAPX 281931
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots tonight
- Light wintry mix likely Saturday
- Next system to watch is early next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Pattern/Synopsis: Low pressure over southern Hudson Bay will
weaken, while high pressure noses into the southern lakes from
the nw.
Forecast: The pressure gradient relaxes tonight, even as winds
veer to the wnw. Those wnw winds will bring light snow showers
and flurries to the Sault and other parts of Chippewa Co, as
well as GLR/Kalkaska and nearby snowbelt areas of nw lower MI.
Somewhat better banding is already present on Superior, well ne
of MQT, per MQT radar. The best banding tonight will impact
parts of Chip Co, where the wnw fetch is much longer than off of
Lake MI. Inversion heights also wobble higher up there for a
time, close to 800mb. Have accums of up to 1" in Chippewa Co,
near and north of M-28, including the Sault. The shorter fetch,
drier air, and lower inversions into nw lower MI will only
support light snow showers and flurries, with minimal accums.
Overall on the cloudy side central and north, partly cloudy in
the south. Min temps in the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Ridging and height rises move over northern Michigan on Friday
leading to warmer temperatures and waning precip chances. Low
pressure system tracks across southern Michigan Saturday, with a
short wave quickly skirting across northern parts of Michigan as
well. Light wintry mix possible as a result. Zonal flow takes over
on Sunday as the short wave ejects to the east of the Great Lakes.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
High pressure aloft moves overhead on Friday resulting in warmer
temperatures. There could be a few nuisance light snow showers
across the eastern UP early on Friday, but the ridging aloft, warmer
850 temps, and dry low levels by the afternoon hours will diminish
any light lake effect potential. Two pieces of energy, one across
southern MI, one across northern, move east throughout the day on
Saturday. Consequently, precipitation develops across the region.
This will generally be light precipitation, with largely a mix of
rain and snow. Could be some freezing rain during the predawn hours
to very early morning hours Saturday if the precipitation
overspreads the region when the sfc temps are below freezing. Much
of the 12Z guidance shows very little in regard to freezing rain,
but something to keep an eye on. Interestingly, ECM/EPS continues to
be an outlier with this system, suggesting the northern piece of
energy is farther south and thus colder with a couple of inches of
snow for the area. GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS are farther north and thus not
much in the way of snow/wintry precip. Seems the ECM is the outlier,
so for now will side with the warmer scenario.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Next system for early next week will be a thread the needle type
situation. Two pieces of energy to watch, energy splitting/oozing
out of an upper low in the Desert Southwest and ejecting
northeastward into the Ohio Valley, in addition to a vigorous upper
low diving south out of Canada. Looks like the initial piece of
energy produces a juiced up low pressure system that tracks
northeastward, with the diving upper low attempting to phase with
the southern piece and thus slowing and intensifying the low
pressure system. Tons of spread in the ensembles right now, GEFS is
most amplified and farthest west comparatively so (pretty sure a
bias of the GFS), other guidance generally misses the connection and
thus the low pressure drifts off to the east. Although, even if the
sfc low does not directly impact N Michigan, that stout upper low
would still likely produce precip chances. Nevertheless, right now,
generally pretty low probabilities (10-40%) to see 3" or more with
this system given the GEPS, EPS, and GEFS (highest is GEFS), but the
exact interaction of the upper level features and subsequent low
pressure track will ultimately decide. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
A trof of low pressure will swing across the area tonight,
veering our winds to the wnw. Conditions will be mostly VFR.
However, lake effect clouds are expected to redevelop and lower
tonight into Fri morning, along with some -SHSN. MVFR cigs are
likely Fri morning at CIU, and are possible at PLN/TVC.
Gusty wsw winds this afternoon will weaken by evening, then veer
wnw.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will be decreasing late today, as low pressure over
southern Hudson Bay continues to weaken. Small craft advisories
will not be needed in most areas by midnight. Whitefish Bay is
an exception, as veering winds to wnw will allow wave action
from the open portion of Superior to make it into northern parts
of Whitefish Bay.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-
346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
Office: GRR
FXUS63 KGRR 281951
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
351 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
- Sunshine, a Bit Warmer, and Not as Windy Friday
The upper trough which has brought the recent bout of chilly and
breezy weather finally lifts out of the GrtLks Rgn on Friday and
is replaced by shortwave ridging in it's wake. At the sfc there is
a ridge building in as well which finally brings lighter winds
plus a continuation of sunshine. After a cold night tonight with
lows in the 20s, Highs Friday rebounding to 50-55 but still
rather chilly lakeside.
- Showers and Possible Storms late Friday Night/early Saturday
Active pattern, although fairly familiar/typical for springtime in
srn MI, sets up on Friday night. We have a warm front and 50 kt
low level jet lifting north in our direction with a fast zonal
flow aloft and even some semblance of a coupled upper jet
structure at 12Z Saturday. Models differ on position of the low
level jet and northward extent of the better MUCape/elevated
convection overnight, but the tail end of the HREF guidance does
snow a decent coverage of rain south of I-96 and even the
possibility of localized 1+" of QPF near I-94 per the LPMM QPF
prog. Steeper mid level lapse rates (7.8 C/KM 700-500 mb on the
NAM) could support some small hail as well.
The other noteworthy item is that areas north of about a Big
Rapids to Alma line (interior central lower MI) may be cold enough
to support a period of freezing rain late Friday night into early
Saturday... should the precip make it that far north.
The potential round of nocturnal/elevated convection could linger
into Saturday morning (especially south), otherwise mainly
lighter showers and clouds expected Saturday. Even if the sfc warm
warm manages to bulge briefly north in the srn CWFA, it should
slip south of MI again in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the
40s north to the 50s south.
- Slight Chance Precipitation Sunday, Better Chance next week
The long term period begins with a shallow upper level trough
with primarily zonal flow over the region as any precipitation
exit the region late Saturday into Sunday. The Zonal flow with
very weak high pressure will continue over the region through
Sunday into Monday. There is some ribbons of mid level moisture
that will move into the area Sunday. This should cause cloudiness
and perhaps some light rainshowers. The best moisture pool remains
through southern Michigan, mainly along and south of the I 94
corridor.
The zonal pattern will be displaced Monday into Tuesday by a deep
low pressure system that at this time is fairly barotropic with
deep moisture throughout the system. There seems to be some strong
warm air advection into the region Monday into Tuesday NAEFS
PWATS current are between 0.75 to 1 inch with +1 standard
deviation anomaly. Lower Michigan seems to be primarily entrenched
in the warm sector so Maximum temperatures could be in the 50s
through the first half of next week. The mid to long range moves
are in fair agreement of the upper level pattern, though there is
some disparity on the position of the sfc low. So a decent chance
for rain showers should come around Tuesday. Along with this
system is the potential for gusty winds. It's a tad early but
latest ensembles show anomalous mid to upper level winds. There
currently looks to be some better directional shear which could
limit sfc winds so it is lower confidence but it is something to
watch.
As the upper level low exits the region and moves into the mid
Atlantic, cold air on the back side of the low should bring a
chance for a rain/snow mix mid week. Temperatures are fairly
marginal and it is far out so confidence is a specific precip type
is low. High pressure should then dominate late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
MVFR cigs are present along the lakeshore. As the low levels dry
out expect those clouds to dissipate by 22Z. Otherwise VFR will
dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period. The
inversion will dominate the surface between 22Z to 00Z allowing
for winds to become light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Small Craft Advisory ending early this evening as westerly winds
quickly subside, followed by light winds/waves on Friday as
surface ridging moves in. Offshore flow expected Friday night into
Saturday, backing northerly for a time Saturday afternoon/evening.
There could a relatively brief period later in the day Saturday
requiring a Small Craft Advisory before things subside and go
offshore again Saturday night.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meade/Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Meade