Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

mi discuss


Office: MQT

FXUS63 KMQT 192340
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
640 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 421 PM EST MON FEB 19 2018

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof over the
western CONUS (500mb height anomalies of 300m) and strong ridging
over the eastern CONUS (500mb anomalies of 300m over the ne). Result
is sw flow into the Upper Lakes. Although no significant shortwaves
are noted in the sw flow, upper jet dynamics and low/mid level fgen
are taking advantage of abundant moisture (precipitable water per
12z raobs was around 200pct of normal at KMPX/KGRB) to support areas
of pcpn across the Northern Plains to Upper Lakes. Focused fgen for
much of the day led to a band of mdt/hvy snow from nw WI to the
Houghton vcnty. Houghton area has probably had around 4in of snow
since mid/late morning.

SW mid level flow will remain in place thru the short term. With a
lack of any significant shortwaves lifting out of the western trof,
pcpn will continue to be largely driven by upper jet dynamics and
low/mid level fgen. Fgen supporting the heavier snow over nw Upper
MI is fcst to fade away this evening. Hvy narrow band of snow from
the morning/early aftn is already dissolving into a broader area of
mdt snow so that diminishing trend is underway. Meanwhile, there is
generally a consensus for a push of isentropic ascent across the
area this evening. As a result, pcpn should be more widespread thru
the evening hrs before diminishing in intensity and coverage. Pcpn
will probably become patchy overnight. In general, moisture depth
tends to diminish with time tonight in addition to continued waa
pushing an elevated warm nose above 0C northward into central and
eastern Upper MI. This should will lead to ptype becoming more
-fzra/-fzdz dominated with time. Sheared out shortwave will lift ne
across MN into northern Ontario on Tue. This may support another
period of more widespread pcpn Tue morning before pcpn diminishes
and mostly ends w to e in the aftn. Overall, ice accumulations over
the se half are likely to be under one-quarter inch and mostly one-
tenth to two-tenths of an inch...probably closer to the lower end of
that range. Ice accumulations will be less that that over the w.
Snow accumulations should range from less than 1 inch se to 2 to 4
far nw. Per coord with surrounding offices, advy for the central
will run until 00z Wed, but with pcpn largely done by 18z, will
likely be able to cut the advy end time back with later updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM EST MON FEB 19 2018

More active winter weather possible late this week into next weekend
as general troughing over west half of Conus contiues to send systems
toward Great Lakes.

Active weather occurring early this week settles down considerably
as early as Tue night as sfc low exits into Quebec and quasi
stationary boundary moves to the lower Great Lakes. High pressure
over northern Plains then builds over western Great Lakes through
Wed. Colder air (h85 temps down to -18c) works in on northwest low-
level winds so there may be light lake effect for northwest to west
flow snow belts. However, do not expect much LES this time around
since area is within dry slot of H85 low lifting toward James Bay
resulting in minimal large scale low-level moisture. Another
negative for LES is expansive ice on western Lk Superior. Will only
have slight chance pops for mainly the Keweenaw late Tue night into
Wed morning. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along Lk Superior
and east for much of the day but skies should clear out Wed night.
High pressure and light winds along with pwats less than 0.10 inch
point to min temps dropping well below zero inland. Used colder WPC
and GEM bias corrected guidance.

High pressure will keep conditions dry over Upper Michigan on Thu
though increasing high clouds will signal the return of another
system lifting into the region from the central Plains. Shortwave
and area of q-vector convergence with H85 wave and moisture
advection appear to be main drivers for the light snow. Not much
enhancement coming from upper level jet as its primary lifting
influence stays south and east of here closer to sfc front and
baroclinic zone. Real good agreement from model qpf and GEFS
ensembles for a 6-12 hour period of light snow with QPF amounts
staying less than 0.25 inch. SW flow ahead of H85 low tries to bring
warmer air into the western Great Lakes, but right now looks like it
stays cold enough for just snow as ptype across all of Upper
Michigan.

After a break on Sat, another system could move in late Sat night
into Sun as shortwave trough rides across the Great Lakes downstream
of broad trough aloft over west half of Conus. There are expected
model differences that far out though. Main difference is GFS taking
shortwave/sfc low farther south across the Ohio valley while
ECMWF/GEM and GEFS would bring system farther north across central
Great Lakes. Latest GFS continues to keep U.P. dry on Sun while
other guidance has at least light qpf over much of Upper Michigan.
ECMWF would even bring moderate qpf over 0.25 inch across parts of
Upper Michigan. Probably stays cold enough for just snow for this
system as well. Another weaker system may move in on Monday, but
there are too many differences to go with anything more than slight
chances. Other than chilly night Wed night, temps through the long
term should be normal or even above normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM EST MON FEB 19 2018

IFR conditions (vis and/or cigs) will mostly be the rule into Tue
morning this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW as waves of pcpn move
ne across the Upper Lakes. While pcpn should be only snow at
KIWD/KCMX, snow at KSAW will likely mix with or change to -fzdz at
times tonight thru Tue morning. May even be a period of only
-fzra Tue morning. Expect slowly improving conditions Tue
 afternoon as pcpn generally ends and cigs rise to low end MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 242 PM EST MON FEB 19 2018

May see northeast gale gusts to 35 knots over western sections of Lk
Superior through tonight. Otherwise, winds are expected to stay
below gales the rest of the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for
     MIZ004>007-010>014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLA



Office: DTX FXUS63 KDTX 200000 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 700 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .AVIATION... Warm front slowly advancing northward across lower Michigan, currently positioned between DTW and PTK early this evening. Conditions north of this boundary will remain defined by substantial near surface moisture content, translating into LIFR/VLIFR conditions in both very low stratus and fog. Frontal passage timing will dictate any ensuing improvement tonight at PTK and FNT, before the boundary eventually stalls somewhere near or just south of MBS overnight. To the south, conditions likely to remain more variable with greater dependence on pockets of heavier rainfall to bring intermittent reductions down into IFR/low MVFR. This episodic trends will continue to be refined as necessary. Low potential for embedded thunder throughout the period, but too limited in occurrence and uncertain in timing to include. For DTW...Greater fluctuations in cigs and vsby likely going forward as pockets of heavier rain help dictate further reduction in conditions /IFR to MVFR/. Winds firmly from the south-southwest through the period. /DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling 5000 feet or less for the entire forecast. * Low for thunderstorms impacting terminal tonight and Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 DISCUSSION... The main story for the next few days will be the long duration rainfall that began this morning and will last through Wednesday afternoon. A Flood Watch will remain in effect for widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches total over the course of this time frame. In addition to the rainfall, remaining snow melt will add to runoff. Frozen soils will not allow much absorption of rainfall and runoff which may lead to flooding concerns. Ice break up on lakes, rivers and streams will also be something to keep an eye on as temperatures warm, which may exacerbate any local flooding concerns. The set up for this rainfall is resulting from an amplifying longwave pattern over the western US with a ridge across the southeastern US. This pattern is leading to strong warm and moist advection across all of Michigan ahead of a slow moving boundary extending from the western Great Lakes southwest through the central Plains. The digging western trough is allowing the strengthening low level jet to pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Lakes. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values of around 1.4 inches are forecast to enter southeast Michigan by tonight. To put that value into context if reached, it will likely break the highest PWAT value observed in the month of February at DTX. Several waves along this slow moving boundary will be able to tap into this high moisture content to bring persistent rainfall and flooding potential. Currently, the first wave is moving northward with a surface low lifting out of the plains now approaching northwestern IL. The associated warm front helping to drive organized convection in lower Michigan this afternoon is forecast to lift northward between I-69 and M-59 by this evening. This will focus the higher rainfall amounts this evening along and north of I-69. Strong theta-e advection and isentropic lift will continue continue to support rainfall through tonight as the low nears the Great Lakes. Mid level lapse rates around 6-7 C/km for portions of the night along with Showalter indices approaching zero would be enough to support some embedded thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but any embedded thunderstorms tonight would come with more potential for higher rainfall rates at those locations. As the initial surface low pressure washes out moving northeastward towards the Great Lakes overnight, another surface low develops and takes a similar path as the previous low. By tomorrow morning, the strongest push of warm and moist air enters southeast Michigan with mid to upper 50 dewpoints and 850 mb temperatures around 10C. High temperatures tomorrow should reach well above normal for February into the mid 60s. The slow moving boundary will begin moving eastward as a cold front tomorrow afternoon as a building surface high pressure system moves into the northern plains behind it. The atmospheric firehose of moisture will continue ahead of this cold front as strong southwesterly winds associated with the southern stream jet keep drawing Gulf moisture into the region through Tuesday night. Highest rainfall totals for Tuesday morning into Tuesday night will be areas south of I-69 as the low pressure moves through. Thunderstorms will remain possible again tomorrow, but severe thunderstorms again remain a low possibility. The slow progression of the cold front will keep rainfall potential into Wednesday morning. The front will eventually push east of southeast Michigan by the afternoon and bring an end to the rainfall as dry air and cooler temperatures move in for the evening. The cooler air in the wake of the front will bring high temperatures back down into the 40s for most locations on Wednesday. The extended period starting on Thursday and lasting though the weekend features periods of unsettled weather conditions. Thursday will remain dry before the next wave makes inroads into the Great Lakes region overnight Thursday and into Friday. Looking at a break overnight on Friday before some more precipitation moves in early Saturday. The best chances for rain and/or snow as of now is Friday morning and then again on Sunday morning. Overall, temperatures during the day are expected to remain above freezing with lows at night hovering around the upper 20s to lower 30s. MARINE... A warm front will stall near Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron tonight as the next wave of low pressure organizes over the Midwest. A moderate easterly flow gusting to 30 knots or less will occur in the briefly stronger gradient north of the front tonight and this air will be cold enough to support mixed precipitation over northern Lake Huron. Rain will occur along and south of the front with a chance of thunderstorms where milder air moves in on southerly flow. Expect wind gusts will be under 30 knots in the warm air as well especially considering high stability over open water and ice cover. Low pressure will move along the front and north of the Great Lakes Tuesday night and pull the associated cold front through marine areas. Instability will increase in this colder flow, so gusts will be around 30 knots with a brief gust to 35 knots possible Wednesday. High pressure will then settle overhead by Wednesday night. HYDROLOGY... A warm front will continue to lift slowly through southern Lower Michigan and stall through central Lower Michigan tonight. Abundant moisture and very mild conditions will accompany the frontal boundary leading to a complete melting of any remaining snowpack. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches can be expected during the time period tonight through Wednesday with the potential for higher amounts in areas of thunderstorms and training rain segments closest to the frontal boundary. While rain chances will be high area-wide through this period, initial heavy rain potential will focus along and north of the I-69 corridor tonight along the stalled front. The focus will then shift southward Tuesday into Tuesday night as the final low pressure system tracks into area along the front and forces it to the southeast with time. Considering the rainfall will occur over a duration of two to three days, flooding concerns will be greatest for area rivers and streams, although ponding of water in poor drainage areas of roads and other low lying areas will also be possible across the region. Significant rises in area rivers and streams, including potential sharp rises from ice breakup due to the very mild temperatures will likely occur leading to potential minor flood stages being exceeded on larger rivers and streams. CLIMATE... Record high temperatures will be possible across much of southeast Michigan Tuesday. Here is a look at record high temperatures for Tuesday, February 20th: Detroit 63 (2016) Flint 61 (1930) Saginaw 62 (1930) With the high moisture content, there is also a good chance to break the records for warmest lows February 20th: Detroit 47 (1930) Flint 45 (1930) Saginaw 46 (1930) && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...AA/SP MARINE.......BT HYDROLOGY....BT CLIMATE......AA/SP You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Office: APX FXUS63 KAPX 192029 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...Increasing chances of freezing rain north of M-32 tonight into Tuesday... High Impact Weather Potential...Freezing rain north of M-32 causing ice accumulations and hazardous travel. Potential for heavy rain along and south of M-55...especially near Saginaw Bay. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Inverted trough axis extends from the Ontario/Quebec border thru Central Upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin to a complex area of low pressure centered along the Kansas/Missouri border. Long train of convection continues to expand along the associated warm front from the Southern Plains thru the Mid Mississippi Valley to areas north of the Ohio Valley. Northern edge of deepening moisture...strengthen F-gen and the resulting area of convection has reached our CWA...marking the first wave of several areas of energy and resulting precip that will impact our CWA over the next 36 to 48 hours. Temps have risen to a couple of degrees either side of 40 across Northern Lower Michigan and into the low to mid 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon. Some light rain has begun to reach the ground across the SW half of our CWA...possibly mixed with some snow/sleet during the onset of precip as low level dwpts slowly rise. As we head into tonight and Tuesday...synoptic precip will continue to expand across our CWA as deeper moisture surges northward along the inverted trough...which stalls over our general vcnty tonight. Warm nose aloft will continue to develop...become quite pronounced after 00Z this evening. Model soundings still suggest areas north of M-32 will see mainly freezing rain once surface temps drop AOB freezing this evening...with some snow/sleet mixing in especially across Eastern Upper Michigan. Areas along and south of M-32 should remain mostly rain as surface temps only fall into the mid to upper 30s. Surface temps will slowly warm to above freezing from south to north during Tuesday morning...with most areas across our northern CWA seeing a temporary switch over from freezing rain to plain rain Tuesday afternoon. Ongoing Winter Wx Advisories for Eastern Upper and the tip of the Mitt counties will remain in tact given the above scenario. Will certain need to keep an eye on the next tier of counties to the south along M-32 for temp trends and precip type as we head thru tonight. Strong WAA on Tuesday will push temps well above normal across Northern Lower Michigan...with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 40s just south of the Bridge to the mid 50s along our southern tier of counties. Tight temp gradient will be most pronounced along the Straits (as is not untypical). High temps Tuesday afternoon will be significantly cooler across eastern Upper Michigan...warming only in the mid 30s. With respect to the potential for heavy rainfall...latest short term models still target our far SE CWA around Saginaw Bay for the heaviest rainfall potential. This are could see between an inch and a half and two inches of rainfall over the next 36 to 48 hours. Will certainly maintain the Flood Watch for this area thru Wednesday morning for this potential heavy rainfall event. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...System finally departs, then quiet weather through midweek... High Impact Weather Potential...Some additional ice accumulation possible Tuesday evening across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt, but it would be minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Final wave of low pressure will ride northeast along the thermal gradient over northern Michigan Tuesday evening. As it departs, it will finally pull the frontal boundary out of the area with it, with a very strong surface high and much drier airmass building in from the west in its wake. Strong cold air advection will occur as a result through Wednesday, relaxing Wednesday night as the high drifts overhead. We'll start to get into more of a return flow pattern by late Thursday afternoon as the high pushes east, with rebounding temperatures towards the weekend. Primary Forecast Concerns...Timing the departing precip. Also lingering ptype concerns as the system exits Tuesday night. Models are in decent agreement with the system's departure Tuesday night and a resultant west to east diminishing trend to the precip. The NAM and hi-res ARW/NMM are on the speedier end, with precip largely clearing out of eastern Upper and northwest Lower by late evening and out of the remainder of northeast Lower before daybreak Wednesday. Other model guidance isn't too far behind. Moisture will progressively be stripped out from top down from west to east overnight as drier air encroaches from upstream. Expect that may lead to a transition to drizzle or freezing drizzle on the back edge of the departing precipitation. Forecast sounding thermal profiles continue to support some freezing rain/drizzle across eastern Upper until precip comes to an end there. Northern Lower will continue to see rain through late evening, gradually transitioning to some freezing precipitation as colder air sweeps in near the surface. Suppose there could be a few snowflakes at the tail end of this system before the column dries out completely. Regardless, this last round of precipitation Tuesday night will be rather light with only minimal additional ice accumulations expected through about midnight, mainly across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time. High pressure will quickly push off to the east Thursday night with return flow drawing increasing moisture back into the region. Isentropic lift, a low level jet, and the right entrance region of an upper jet streak will bring the next round of precip across northern Michigan late Thursday night through Friday. Forecast soundings presently suggest mainly snow, but will have to monitor the developing warm nose aloft over the coming days. If it starts looking any warmer, there could be greater concerns for perhaps a wintry mix. Transient high pressure for the beginning of the weekend, followed by a potential organized low lifting through the Ohio Valley or southern Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Considerable model variance at this time for the Sunday/Monday timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1211 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 An inverted trough axis will lean into Lower Michigan this afternoon and will remain generally in our region thru Tuesday. Widespread precip will develop from south to north across Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon...and will continue to impact our area thru Tuesday as deep moisture surges northward along this inverted trough axis. Locations along M-32 (APN) will see a brief period of freezing rain late tonight into early Tuesday morning...while locations north of M-32 (PLN) will see a more prolonged period of freezing rain and mixed precip tonight into Tuesday morning. Precip at TVC and MBL should remain all rain thru the forecast period. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR at all TAF sites as this precip develops. NE winds AOB 10 kts this evening will become E overnight and then S/SE on Tuesday. LLWS will develop toward midday Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ008-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>019. FLOOD WATCH through late Tuesday night for MIZ035-036-041-042. && $$ NEAR TERM...MR SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...MR
Office: GRR FXUS63 KGRR 192357 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 657 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A wet and warm period is expected from this evening through Tuesday night. Periods of rainfall are expected through this time, with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected. Highest amounts are likely to be found the further south you go toward the state border. Some locally heavier amounts are likely. Flooding is likely, especially near rivers and streams. Temperatures will warm into the 50s and lower 60s by Tuesday afternoon. A front moving through on Wednesday morning will bring an end to the rainfall. The precipitation could change over to some light snow before ending. Colder air will move in behind the front for the end of the week. Another system moving in over the weekend will bring another chance of precipitation. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 No real changes are needed to the forecast this afternoon. The Flood Watch will be left as is. Initial batch of rain with this wet system has brought some rain to much of the area, and is starting to exit to the east this afternoon. This rain was the initial surge of moisture just out ahead of the warm front that looks like it just crossed north into Michigan as of 20z. It looks like we will see one break in the rain through early this evening. A better batch of showers and embedded thunder with a wave now over Il/MO has it's sights set on Lower Michigan this evening. Once the warm front moves north of the area this evening, it will remain nearly stationary into Tue night as it becomes parallel to the SW upper flow that takes shape ahead of the long wave trough approaching. This will allow additional short waves to ride through the area. These short waves will be encountering precipitable water values approaching 300% of normal for mid-late Feb. The favored area for the heaviest rains remains S/SE Lower. We continue to expect around an inch across our NW counties, to 3+ inches across our far southern counties. The widespread rainfall alone across the south is enough to cause issues. When combining it with some snow melt (more snowmelt to the NW), a frozen ground, and high river levels coming into the event, brings a fairly high likelihood of flooding on the rivers, and low lying areas. Thunder chances remain, however instability remains fairly weak. This will keep any severe chances low, even with temps approaching 60 down south in the warm sector. We will see the whole system get pushed east then on Wednesday morning as the upper flow pushes it, and strong Canadian ridging at the sfc pushes in. The frontal passage looks like it will be accompanied by a brief change over from rain to snow before the pcpn ends. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Main concern in the extended period will center around potential for additional rainfall that could further aggravate flooding or slow the receding of water. High pressure will provide dry weather Thursday with high temperatures warming to the mid 30s to low 40s, which is near to slightly above normal. Upper energy ejecting out of the longwave trough over the western U.S. will quickly slide over Michigan towards the end of the work week, spreading what is more likely be light precipitation into the area late Thursday night and Friday morning. Thermal profiles are most suggestive of precipitation starting as light snow late Thursday night before changing to rain through the morning with the onset of daytime heating. Most models suggest very light precipitation (both rain and snow) given weak forcing and dry air that must first be overcome. 19.12Z GFS, however, brings 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain across far southern Michigan, while the Euro and other solutions keep the heavier precip south. Will continue to watch potential for the higher rain amount scenario in the GFS, but follow the stronger consensus of the non- GFS solutions. Models then differ with when the next pieces of upper energy works across the area, and whether the resultant round of precipitation will occur on Saturday or Sunday. This should again be a mix of rain and snow, with rain favored during the daytime. Amounts are hard to judge given model differences with synoptic pattern, but another prolonged heavy rain event is not expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 657 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 IFR and LIFR conditions expected to prevail through Tuesday evening with bouts of steady rain. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible but was left out of the forecast for now. LLWS will also continue through Tuesday morning. Wind will be south to southwest around 10 knots on Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A notable flood event is forecast to materialize over the next 48 hours. A combination of heavy rainfall, melting snow and frozen soil is expected to lead to efficient runoff over the next couple days. Flood conditions are expected to continue along streams and rivers through the course of the week with some sites forecast to reach moderate category and potentially higher. Guidance continues to be rather persistent in painting a wide swath of 1 to 3 inches in total rainfall across much of Lower Michigan. The greatest potential to reach or exceed 3 inches will exist over the southern one-third of the state. A few thunderstorms could be embedded in the overall shield of rainfall, locally enhancing totals tonight through early Wednesday. All sites are affected by some form of a flood product, incorporating information on river rises through the next several days. While most sites rise to minor to moderate flood levels, few sites are forecast to achieve benchmark levels. It is important to note that any record forecast will be highly dependent on whether forecast rainfall verifies and whether the extent of the modeled snowpack truly includes the expected water equivalent. If rainfall occurs as expected and rivers continues to rise, the rate of rise will almost certainly slow with higher levels, as water continues to spread out. Residents and local officials should keep up-to-date with latest forecasts and remain vigilant with regard to river levels over the next several days. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Below are the high temp records, max low records, and precipitation records for today, Tue, and Wed. Mon 2/19 Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 Muskegon High 58 (2017) 62 (2017) 58 (2017,1930) Max Low 44 (1994) 40 (1953) 41 (2017) Pcpn 0.88"(1994) 1.13"(2002) 1.44"(1997) Grand Rapids High 62 (2017) 61 (1930) 66 (1930) Max Low 47 (1994) 50 (1930) 47 (1930) Pcpn 0.85"(1939) 1.40"(1898) 2.96"(1997) Lansing High 62 (2017) 59 (2017,'83,'30) 62 (1930) Max Low 42 (1994) 42 (1930) 42 (2017) Pcpn 1.49"(1939) 1.04"(1891) 2.14"(1997) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...HLO AVIATION...Ostuno HYDROLOGY...JAM CLIMATE...NJJ