mi discuss
Office: MQT
FXUS63 KMQT 021934
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
234 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread southwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected over
much of the area this afternoon and evening, especially over
the west half, Keweenaw, and downsloping locations of the
central UP.
- Wind Advisories are currently in effect for Keweenaw, Northern
Houghton, Gogebic, and Marquette counties where wind gusts up
to 45 mph are expected.
- Southwest to westerly gales are expected across Lake Superior
the rest of today into Monday.
- Temperatures remain near normal this afternoon before
rebounding slightly above normal into most of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
As a Clipper low moves through the Canadian Prairies and lifts
towards Hudson Bay this evening, an occluding front with cold air
advection behind it is approaching the U.P. from the west, arriving
over us tonight. As it does so, a LLJ with a wind core of speeds up
to around 65 kts is predicted to mix down southwest winds of 30 to
40 mph across much of the Upper Peninsula, with Gogebic County and
the Keweenaw potentially seeing gusts up to 45 to 50 mph from time
to time today. Because of this, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
these spots and for Marquette County as well given that winds from
near the Huron Islands down to Big Bay and the city of Marquette
could gust up to 45 mph late this afternoon into this evening thanks
to downsloping. As the front comes in this evening, expect to see
some light lake effect rain showers over area. While most of the
U.P. should be generally rain-free after 1 AM EST tonight, the lake
effect rain showers do look to hold on over the east into Monday
morning. In addition to the rain showers, expect winds to pick up
from the west-northwest immediately behind the occluding front
tonight, allowing for gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph to continue
through most of the U.P. late tonight through Monday. In addition,
the Keweenaw will remain in a Wind Advisory as gusts are projected
to get up to 45 mph throughout the day. As ridging builds into the
area on Monday from the west, expect the clouds to give way to sunny
skies and for winds to eventually die down Monday night.
While above normal temperatures look to persist through most of this
week, we could see calm conditions on Tuesday give way to lake
enhanced/effect rainfall once again Tue night into Wednesday as a
shortwave low skirts through the Northern Plains and the Upper Great
Lakes. While some spots could see a couple tenths of an inch of
liquid near Lake Superior, expect the precipitation to be light,
with maybe a changeover to snow over the north central by early
Wednesday morning before the lake effect wraps up. While some gusty
northwest winds up to 35 mph could be seen behind the shortwave on
Wednesday, nothing too much is expected impact-wise as this is
fairly common for this time of year.
After a little bit of rest of Thursday, another system could
potentially impact Upper Michigan late this week into this weekend.
While guidance has shifted away from a deep low moving through
northern Lake Michigan this upcoming weekend, some lake effect rain
and snow showers could be seen with this system, with the transition
to more and more snow occurring with time as temperatures cool to
below normal (highs in the mid 30s in the interior and lows in the
mid 20s); NBM guidance appears to hint at the north wind belts
seeing the most precipitation with this system. Given the relatively
'warm' lake sfc and air temperatures, we could still see a few
inches of wetter-than-typical lake effect over the north wind belts
this weekend; in addition, being that it's so far out, the solutions
for the track of the low pressure could still change, so confidence
in this part of the forecast remains low.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Southwest winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front, with sustained winds of 20-25 kt and gusts
of 30-35 kt at the terminals through much of the TAF period,
possibly as high as 40 kt at times at KCMX. Profiles remain
unidirectional with height, but will include LLWS at all sites as 50-
55 kt LLJ moves overhead through ~01-04z this evening. Frontal
passage will bring potential for some rain showers this evening,
with the best chances from KSAW eastward after 00z. Still expect VFR
conditions to prevail through the period. Winds shift westerly
behind the front tonight, continuing to gust to 30-35 kt through the
end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Southwest gales to 45 knots with a few storm force winds up to 50
knots continues over Lake Superior this afternoon as a LLJ across
the area remains until an occluding front pushes through tonight.
After the front moves through, expect the winds to turn west-
northwest as gales up to 40 knots to occasionally 45 knots continue
over the lake into Monday thanks to some robust cold air advection.
As ridging builds in Monday and Monday night, expect the winds to
weaken from west to east with time, with the last of the gales dying
down over the eastern half of the lake Monday night. Light winds of
20 knots or less return for a short while Tuesday afternoon.
However, as a shortwave low moves runs through the Northern Plains
and Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, expect the
winds to pick up once again from the northwest behind the low on
Wednesday, with some gales up to 35 knots possible over the east
half (30% chance according to the LREF). As more shortwave ridging
moves overhead Wednesday night into Thursday, expect the winds to
die-down to 20 knots or less again. Another system potentially
affecting the area late in the work week could bring gusty winds
over Lake Superior once again Thursday night into this weekend.
However, given that confidence on the low's track is low at this
time, confidence on what's going to happen is rather low too;
currently it looks like northerly gales could occur around the
Friday time period, but the chance of this happening according to
the LREF is around 10% chance.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ001-003.
Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ005.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MIZ009.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ162.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for LSZ240-
241.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ242>244-263>267.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ245>251.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP
Office: DTX
FXUS63 KDTX 022048
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
348 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy conditions Monday as a cold front crosses the region in the
late morning. Peak gusts are expected to fall in the 30 to 40 MPH
range.
- Chances for rain favored towards northern half of the region
Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The exit region of a strong 160 knot jet racing along the US/Canada
border this afternoon will reach the Great Lakes tonight bringing
the next chance of precipitation Monday morning and gusty winds into
the afternoon. Models have deviated little in the previous few runs
having a stacked low over northern Ontario drawing some lead energy
from the jet northward before the nose of the jet barrels into lower
MI. This will push the southern extension of the cold front through
SE MI late Monday morning with a very narrow warm sector just
preceding it. This setup will offer a brief window of rain over the
area mainly between 09-15Z. Main update with this package was to
extend slight chance pops southward to the border giving credit to a
ribbon of strong fgen, upper level support, and strong low level
jet. We've seen it too many times where the lead edge of the theta e
gradient and fgen is able to generate light showers even under the
backdrop of drier air under the ridge.
A strong, but weakening, 40 knot low level jet will pass over the
area in advance of the system tonight but will have difficulties
mixing to the surface overnight. Behind the cold front, mixing
depths increase which will tap into some of the increase westerly
flow with 850mb winds around 35 knots. Local probabilistic graphics
show a low chance for surface gusts to exceed 35 mph and national
hires probs mostly stay below 35 mph as well. Could see a situation
where the initial pop of wind could see some higher gusts around 35-
40 mph before settling more around 30-35 mph through the afternoon
hours. Best potential for higher gusts remains across the northern
Thumb with the increased winds off Saginaw Bay coming ashore.
Longwave pattern flattens out locally mid week with a shortwave
ridge sliding over the region bringing quiet weather on Tuesday. The
low amplitude and progressive longwave pattern continues through the
remainder of the forecast though with the next trough coming early
Wednesday. Outside of a weaker jet around 130 knots driving the
system, the overall look to the pattern is similar to tonight/Monday
with the low passing to the north and weaker trough/cold front
sweeping through lower MI presenting a chance for rain. It does
appear to be shifted a little south of tonight's system offering a
better chance for precipitation. After another ridge on Thursday a
pair of systems will look to target the area Friday and Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A diffuse high pressure system will continue to hold across the
Great Lakes through the afternoon and early evening hours which will
maintain lighter winds for most of the region. Unsettled conditions
will quickly move in tonight and will last through most of the day
tomorrow in association with an approaching cold front. Southwest
flow will ramp up tonight, initially across northern Lake Huron,
before increasing through the Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron
into the early morning hours. Sustained wind speeds around 25 to 30
knots are expected with gust potential to 35 knot gales. Wind
direction will veer west-northwest tomorrow morning and afternoon in
the wake of the front, where improved mixing depths will sustain
gale potential through the day. The favorable fetch across north and
north-central Lake Huron brings higher chances for gusts to peak
around 40 knots after the passage of the cold front. Widespread
showers are expected with the front through the morning. A Gale
Warning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect.
A ridge of high pressure will build in Tuesday, bringing respite
from unsettled conditions. A second low pressure system is expected
to move across northern lower Michigan by Wednesday , bringing back
elevated winds and gusts through the midweek period. Gusts to 30
knots will be possible with this system.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
AVIATION...
Increasing SW flow dominates conditions across SE Mi this afternoon
and evening as streamlines originate from mid MS valley high
pressure and associated low level dry air. The exception is a narrow
plume of residual Lake Michigan moisture that is adequate for
scattered to broken cumulus. VFR is otherwise maintained in this
setup under clear sky followed by gradually increasing high clouds
ahead of the Midwest cold front tonight. Also tonight, low level jet
development requires a mention of LLWS until the cold front sweeps
through the region Monday morning. A broken band of showers moves in
toward the MBS area by sunrise accompanied by MVFR ceiling within
and ahead of the front that collectively slide across SE Mi and exit
eastward by late morning. Clouds decrease while wind returns as the
weather highlight increasing to gusts around 30 knots post front
Monday afternoon.
For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms today through Monday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon and tonight.
High Sunday morning.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday
for LHZ442-443.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for
LHZ361>363-421-441-462>464.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for LHZ422.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday
for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday
for LEZ444.
Low Water Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....BT
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Office: APX
FXUS63 KAPX 021903
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
203 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds this afternoon through Monday.
- Showery weather tonight into Monday, with active periods
expected again later this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging situated
across northern MI this afternoon...sandwiched between upper-level
low over the TN Valley and upstream shortwave over south-central
Canada. As a result, split flow becoming more prominent late this
weekend, with strong westerlies surging from the Pac NW eastward
into the northern Plains/southern Canada. Upstream jet expected to
buckle tonight into Monday, pushing strong height falls into the
region, along with an attendant cold front. By late Monday night
into Tuesday, more zonal flow anticipated across Great Lakes.
Forecast Details: Primary focus through the remainder of the
daylight hours today revolves around increasingly gusty southwest
winds, with the highest gusts through sunset west of I-75 and in
particular near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline.
Strong winds expected to continue through tonight with a strong LLJ
(30-40 kts at 925mb / 40-55 kts at 850mb) aiding in downward
momentum transfer, especially over the Great Lakes. More uncertainty
over land with just how high gusts are able to materialize, but
still some non-zero probabilities showing up for wind advisory
criteria (45 mph gusts). These very low probs focused along the
immediate lakeshores of western Mackinac, Emmet and Charlevoix
counties. Given such low confidence and the expectation that any
gusts that strong over land would be few and far between, have
foregone a wind advisory at this time. That said, it'll be worth
monitor wind trends through the evening/overnight as it'll be gusty
area-wide -- largely 25-40 mph (again highest across far northwest
lower and the Straits region).
Increasing chances for synoptically driven rain arrive this evening
with initial PoPs spreading in from the northwest after 01-02z.
Latest trends support rain become more widespread for a period of
time tonight while crossing northern MI before the steadiest precip
exits by sunrise Monday, although some sporadic shower chances
linger all the way into the afternoon in spots. Not out of the
question that some of tonight's activity could be rather vigorous
given ample forcing, decent pocket of Pacific-originated moisture,
and even some fumes of low-mid level instability. While severe
weather is not anticipated, some small hail and a rumble of thunder
or two can't be ruled out, along with locally stronger winds
(despite already gusty synoptic winds). Lows tonight largely in the
low-mid 40s before climbing to the low 50s for Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Pattern Forecast: More zonal flow aloft is expected to prevail
Tuesday before shortwave troughing and fast-moving attendant low
pressure potentially bring a brief return of wet weather to the area
Tuesday night/Wednesday. A relatively active pattern looks to remain
on tap through the end of the week with another, more potent, system
possible heading toward the Thursday night-Friday time frame.
Day 2-3 (Tuesday - Wednesday): A generally quieter day is expected
Tuesday with dry conditions, lighter winds and temperatures back
into the low-mid 50s area-wide. Shower chances return Tuesday night-
Wednesday, especially across the northern half of the forecast area
as strengthening low pressure zips across the Great Lakes region.
Day 4-7 (Thursday - Saturday): Another relatively tranquil day
anticipated on Thursday as ~1025mb high pressure crosses the area.
However, rain chances return Thursday night through the end of the
long term as potential exists for another area of low pressure to
dive out of southern Canada into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes.
Beyond this late week/weekend system, latest ensemble trends point
toward a shot of much cooler air arriving just beyond the end of the
long term forecast period. We'll see if that holds in the coming
days -- if so, could be our first real shot of some snow across
parts of the Northwoods.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Strong, gusty southwest winds increase this afternoon ahead of
an approaching line of showers to track across northern Michigan
tonight. Conidtions mainly remain VFR through the entirety of
the forecast period as RA keeps VSBYs at 4-6+ miles and Cigs
just above MVFR levels other than the periodic embedded low Cu.
Strong winds gusting into the low 30s for most locations will be
strongest overnight and expect to carry through all day Monday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for LHZ345-346.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
LHZ347>349.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC
Office: GRR
FXUS63 KGRR 022038
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
338 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers to sweep through Tonight/Monday Morning
- Another chance for showers Tuesday night/Wednesday
- Turning colder and unsettled Friday into next weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
- Rain showers to sweep through Tonight/Monday Morning
High pressure is sliding away from the area at the surface this
afternoon with a cold front poised upstream across the Dakotas.
The front will race our direction tonight and spread rain showers
into the area overnight and into Monday morning. The upper system
driving the cold front is a shortwave trough surging southeast
from the ONT/ND/MN border region. The system is somewhat moisture
starved and only a couple of observation sites are reporting rain
despite returns on radar at 3pm. Best chances for rain will come
across Central Lower Michigan and specifically areas north of I-96
late tonight. Followed the SREF for rain chances as it usually
does a really good job with pops. The south has a very limited
time to see precipitation with this event as the moisture is less
down that way and sticks around for less time (4am to 10am).
Probability of a tenth of an inch of rain is about 50-60 pct up
along the U.S. 10 corridor, so this will be a light rain even in
the areas that stand the best chance of rain.
It will be windy at times tonight and on Monday with wind gusts of
30-40 mph becoming common on land. We should stay below wind
advisory criteria.
- Another chance for showers Tuesday night/Wednesday
A clipper type system moves our direction from the Plains states
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warm front will swing into the
area from the south Tuesday night followed by the low moving
through on Wednesday. The upper shortwave is weaker than the
system from tomorrow morning and as such even less precipitation
is forecast. Less than a tenth of an inch should fall in any area.
In fact, the WPC day 3 QPF would suggest trace amounts and we
cannot argue with that forecast given not much in the way of mid
level moisture with the system.
- Turning colder and unsettled Friday into next weekend
Late in the week and into next weekend the forecast turns more
unsettled as the models all show a slowly deepening upper trough.
By the weekend the trough is full latitude over the eastern half
of the country. The precipitation looks showery and trending
towards lake effect as 850mb temperatures drop to around -8C on
Sunday. Given a lake water temperature of +13C right now that
would put delta T's around 20C, resulting in more than adequate
instability. We do have a bit of light snow mixing in, in our
gridded forecast on Sunday across interior Central Lower Michigan.
It is November...so it is the trend as days become shorter and
inevitably colder.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Scattered cu with bases around 3k ft are moving north this
afternoon. Otherwise most sites are clear. Overnight, rain showers
move into the region from MKG/GRR/LAN north in the 06z-12z time
frame. Visibilities should hold at or above 6sm with this light
activity. Ceilings look to be around 4k ft with these showers. So,
overall little impact is expected. Additionally, we may be looking
at a short window for LLWS mainly for our southern TAFs early
Monday morning in the 06z-10z time frame. This occurs as winds off
the ground increase ahead of the approaching front that will bring
the showers to the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
After coordination with the Milwaukee office (open water forecast
office) have agreed to bring the Gale Warning all the way south
to St. Joseph. The Gale Warning now encompasses all of our
nearshore marine zones. South of Holland, the Gale is a bit
marginal, but do think we will see Gale conditions. Also, in the
GRR marine areas we have ran through Gale Warning from this
evening all the way to Monday evening. There is a bit of a lull in
the Gale conditions on Monday, but it is short lived and therefore
would rather bridge that gap to the northwest Gales that develop
Monday afternoon and evening. We have around a 24 hour Gale
Warning now to cover both the southwest Gales tonight and the
northwest Gales Monday afternoon and evening. Waves look to peak
in the 6-10 foot range with the latest WaveWatch3 indicating a
peak around 11 feet in spots north of Holland at times.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Hoving
MARINE...Duke
