me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 191108
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
0608 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be building in today with mostly sunny skies
and temperatures near normal. Tonight however the clear skies
and light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly. By
Thursday morning expect widespread temperatures in the teens and
20s with even a few single digits possible in the northern
valleys. A cold front will cross the region to end the work
week, bringing mostly rain showers but some mountain snows.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
605AM Update...Have added patchy fog to the forecast along the CT
River for the next couple of hours based on satellite. No changes
needed otherwise.
Previous...
Not much weather to speak of today as we transition from cold
advection...northwest flow to high pressure building in. Temps
will be near normal and winds much lighter than the past couple
of days. The final shortwave trof diving thru the backside of
the departing upper trof will help to shunt a weak overrunning
event south of the forecast area. But some high cloudiness may
be able to sneak across southern zones. For most of the area
however it should be sunny as the mtn cloud cover continues to
scatter out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High will build across the region well timed for tonight. With
clear skies and calm winds...and some snow cover across the
north...temps will plummet after dark. Forecast is already the
coldest night of the season so far for most areas...but MOS
guidance has some single digits in the northern valleys. Given
MWN temps/dewpoints already approaching the single digits that
does seem like a possibility. So I did adjust the NBM forecast
down a few degrees. Otherwise Thu will feature increasing cloud
cover but seasonable temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Evening Update: Little change to the current forecast. The
upcoming pattern is overall fairly average and this is born out
in current ensemble guidance. Temps look seasonable...winds not
particularly gusty...and any precip not significant/extreme. The
best chance for precip will be with a frontal passage Fri into
Sat. However it looks fairly typically for this time of
year...with mostly rain but some mtn snow.
Key Messages:
* Quick, low moisture system into Friday afternoon and evening
will bring rain showers to the area, with a brief wintry mix
towards the mountains. Accumulating wintry precip, while
light, looks mostly elevation based.
Details: High pressure overhead Thursday will see cool
temperature continue, but more clouds are expected compared to
Wednesday. Winds remain light overnight as temps dip into the
mid 20s. This high will pull east as the next weather system
approaches from the west.
Low pressure over Hudson Bay will swing an occluded front into
the Northern Great Lakes with potential triple point low moving
into NY state Fri morning. Nearing warm front will bring temp
increase for the day overall, but only into the mid to upper
40s, with temps around 50 for the coast. Focus for the system
will be a period of precipitation, most of which may be showery
for bulk of the coast and interior. The mountains are expected
to see the greatest QPF, but NBM and AI GFS both depict
comparative amounts into the Kennebec Valley and Midcoast.
Deterministic models are the most bearish outside of the
mountains, likely emphasizing the lack of deeper moisture
available. For precip types, model profiles are warm, and don't
expect wintry precip outside of the mountains. Even here, the
afternoon arrival may limit how much is seen in the valleys vs.
higher elevations...especially as the pattern isn't too
favorable for CAD.
Precipitation will taper Friday night, ending by Sat morning.
Departing system will leave behind a breezy Saturday, but
otherwise little change to going conditions. Forecast supports a
dry weekend, with the NW surface flow continuing to bring in
lower than normal temps. While clouds are forecast to stick
around, this flow could lead to overnight lows in the upper
teens for portions of northern NH and far western ME Sat night.
Into early next week, pattern becomes a little more active, but
there remains little to no confidence in one particular system.
Broad cyclonic flow will sink into the James Bay region with
broad jet from the Midwest into Ohio Valley. This should be good
transport for embedded shortwaves to move along which is what
carries the confidence of a more active weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Largely VFR conditions expected thru Thu. There are
some local MVFR CIGs lingering north of the White Mtns...but
otherwise CIGs have lifted or scattered out completely. I
anticipate that any MVFR CIGs at HIE will be temporary tonight
as the air mass continues to dry and northwest winds continue to
weaken.
Long Term...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR CIGs as a front
approaches the area Fri. With rain moving into the area there
may be some local IFR conditions in the heaviest precip...but
overall expecting more MVFR than anything else. Behind the front
northwest winds return and VFR quickly develop south of the
mtns. Lingering MVFR CIGs expected north of the mtns into Sat.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will continue to diminish and are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru Thu.
Long Term...Overall winds are not anticipated to be gusty thru
the extended and likewise there is little reason for the seas to
build. A front passing thru the region this weekend will allow
for a brief window of marginal SCA conditions...but this may
primarily remain well offshore and closer to 20 to 25 nm from
shore.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Combs/Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Legro
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 191052
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
552 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast of Labrador today, as high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will cross the
region Thursday. An occluded front will cross the region Friday
night then exit across the Maritimes Saturday. High pressure
builds in Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6:00AM Update...Updated Aviation section. Please see below.
.Previous Discussion...
*Key Messages:
-Dry and mild conditions today through Thursday
-Colder than normal temperatures tonight
Today, low pressure over Labrador moves northeast, as a high
pressure system builds in from the west. Partially cloudy in the
north, with most clouds on the windward side of mountain ranges.
Clear skies Downeast. Daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 30s in
the north, and upper-30s to low-40s Downeast. Westerly winds and
dry conditions.
Tonight, clear skies with mostly light winds. 850mb
temperatures in the -5 to -7 range, plus some snow cover on the
ground in the north, will lead to some seasonably cool minimum
temperatures. Northern areas will be in the upper-teens, and
Downeast will be in the low-20s.
On Thursday, high pressure moves over the region. Mostly clear
skies, as winds generally become light and variable. Daytime
maximums in the mid-30s in the north, and low-40s Downeast.
Clouds begin to move in from the west by evening time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Thursday
night, while an occluded front begins to cross western Quebec
province late. Clouds will increase Thursday night. The occluded
front will approach western portions of the forecast area later
Friday. Expect a light snow/rain mix across northern areas
Friday. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies early
Friday with then a chance of light rain during the afternoon.
The occluded front will cross the region Friday night. Light
snow is likely across northern areas early Friday night, then
diminishing overnight. Across Downeast areas, expect a chance of
light snow/rain early Friday night then also diminishing
overnight. An upper level disturbance will cross the region
Saturday helping support the development of an offshore low,
though the track of the low is still uncertain. Could have a
chance of mostly early snow showers across northern areas
Saturday. Across Downeast areas, precipitation chances will be
dependent on the eventual track of the offshore low. A more
southerly low track could keep precipitation mostly offshore
with only a slight chance of early snow/rain showers. A track
across the Gulf of Maine, closer to the Downeast coast, would
increase rain/snow chances Downeast. Expect near normal level
temperatures Friday. Near normal, to slightly below normal,
level temperatures are expected Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region Saturday night with
partly cloudy skies north, partly cloudy/mostly clear Downeast.
High pressure will cross the region early Sunday, with a warm
front then approaching Sunday night. Expect partly sunny skies
Sunday. Clouds then increase Sunday night with light overrunning
precipitation also possible in advance of the warm front.
Across northern areas expect precipitation mostly in the form of
light snow or snow showers. Across Downeast areas precipitation
could be in the form of light snow/rain showers. The warm front
should cross the region Monday with light precipitation. Across
northern areas expect precipitation in the form of snow/rain
showers, with mostly rain showers Downeast. Could still have a
chance of snow showers across the forecast area Monday night. An
upper level disturbance could cross the region Tuesday while
high pressure builds at the surface. Expect partly sunny/mostly
cloudy skies Tuesday, along with decreasing snow/rain shower
chances. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures Sunday,
with near normal level temperatures Monday/Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions at all northern terminals
today. There is a few low-level clouds moving throughout the
day. W winds around 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kt possible at
KFVE. Winds become light and variable tonight.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions at southern terminals. Clear skies. W
winds around 5-10 kts. Winds become light and variable tonight.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...VFR early, then MVFR/IFR late. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast.
Friday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A chance of light snow/rain
early, then light snow/rain north. A chance of light rain/snow
early, then a chance of light rain Downeast. South/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest 10 to 15 knots.
Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late.
Light snow likely early, then a chance of light snow north.
A chance of light rain/snow early, then a slight chance of
light rain/snow late, Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15
knots, becoming west/northwest.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR with a slight chance/chance of rain/snow showers
Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to
30 knots.
Saturday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots.
Sunday...VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions fall below Small Craft Advisory this
morning. Westerly winds that shift to the north by Thursday.
Gusts below 20mph on Wednesday, and winds become light on
Thursday. Seas at or below 3 ft over the outer-waters, and at or
below 2 ft over the intra-coastals.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday night/Friday. Small craft advisory conditions then
possible Friday night/Saturday. A chance of rain later Friday
into Friday night. A chance of rain showers Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...ASB
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/CN
Marine...ASB/CN
