Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 200507
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1207 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and sunny weather persists today as high pressure continues
to build into the region. Calm and mostly clear weather will
make for another cold night tonight. The daylight hours of
Friday should be mostly dry outside of the mountains before a
front brings a slight chance of showers Friday night. The
pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the middle of
next week with several chances for disturbances to cross the
area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected
Visible satellite early this morning shows some low cloud cover
hanging on along the International Border and into central
Somerset County. This is keeping the area insulated and making
Jackman one of the warmest places in the CWA at 28F. Elsewhere,
temperatures are well on their way into the teens and low 20s.
High clouds are also encroaching from the west, but these should
not affect the ongoing radiational cooling.
High pressure becomes centered over the area today making for
another dry and sunny day. After a cold night high temperatures
will recover into the mid- to upper 30s across northern zones,
and into the low to mid-40s across southern zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected
Tonight: High pressure departs tonight, but hold on long enough
to make for another clear and calm night. Flow aloft
transitions southwesterly, so there will be some moisture
advection that could lead to some clouds and hinder radiational
cooling a bit, but low temperatures are likely to drop into the
teens and 20s once again.
Friday: Low pressure centered north of the region begins to
push a front toward the area. Showers begin in the mountains
late morning/early afternoon. Continued warm air advection
pushes temperatures above freezing here, topping out in the
upper 30s and low 40s. As a result a few snowflakes may mix in
at onset, but outside of the higher peaks, it should quickly
transition to rain. Temperatures south of the mountains push
into the mid- to upper 40s. Showers hold off in these zones
until after the end of the short term forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Evening Update...
Key Messages:
*Friday night system continues to trend drier with latest model
runs
The bulk of the long term has not significantly changed with
the incorporation of the latest NBM as we head back into an
unsettled pattern with several chances for disturbances to cross
the region through the middle of next week. PoPs and QPF Friday
night continue to trend downward for most of the area. Global
models show a mid- level dry slot in the split flow over our
area which may reduce any widespread precipitation previously
expected to just a few light showers (already being hinted at in
the 20/00Z NAMNest) as the best forcing remains north and south
of our area. PoPs remain highest across the north as showers
last through the first part of the night.
Previous Discussion...
There are some solutions that bring a second plume of rain into
the Gulf of Maine by Saturday morning, clipping southern NH and
the southern ME coast. However, still equal chances this occurs
later and over the open Gulf waters. For precip types, model
soundings point to a rain/snow event with rain in most locations
and snow mixing in for the mountains.
Brief high pressure works into the region Saturday night with
clouds remaining mostly over the mountains. Drying in the column
increases confidence that other locations see mostly clear
skies. Did drop low temperatures for another cool night in the
lower 20s and upper teens. This should be attainable in good
radiational cooling conditions. Hesitant to go any lower with
center of the high to the south and light NW breeze continuing
in the evening.
Will look for another weak disturbance to swing through
northern New England Sunday night followed by another brief
ridge of high pressure through early week. Next system to impact
the region with measurable precip looks to be into mid-week next
week. Early deterministic runs, and AI-GEFS, portray this as a
overunning event with additional low development in the Gulf of
Maine. This could lead to CAD and mixed precip, but duration and
intensity will need to be refined as the date nears.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Other than the possibility of some fog early this
morning around LEB, which should clear shortly after 12Z, VFR
should prevail through Friday as the region remains under high
pressure.
Long Term...Still could see period of IFR ceilings for
mountain/western terminals overnight Friday. SHRA is forecast
for much of the area, most prominent to again where MVFR is
likely. SHSN may reduce some vis in the mountains. Expect trend
to VFR for Sat and Sun, with lowered ceilings holding on towards
HIE and CAN/US border locations.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA criteria through the
day Friday as high pressure remains over the waters. Winds shift
from northerly to southerly tonight, where they will remain
through Friday.
Long Term...Southerly flow preempts passage of a occluded front
Friday night. These become NW Saturday with some gusts to 25 kt
on the coastal waters. These slacken Sat night into Sunday as
high pressure passes to the south. A weaker system passes to the
north Sun night, with high pressure again building across the
region Mon/Tues.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Baron/Cornwell
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 201320
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
820 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region today through early Friday.
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night then exit
across the Maritimes Saturday. High pressure crosses the region
Sunday. Low pressure will cross the region Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
820 AM Update...Adjusted sky forecast to account for relatively
sunny skies over much of the area with the exception of some low
clouds over west/central Maine.
High pressure will cross the region today through tonight. An
occluded front will also begin to cross western Quebec province
later tonight. Expect partly/mostly sunny skies across
northern areas today, with mostly sunny skies Downeast. Clouds
will increase tonight. The occlusion will approach western
portions of the forecast area later Friday. A light snow/rain
mix will expand across northern/central portions of the
forecast area Friday. Across Downeast areas expect mostly
cloudy skies early Friday, with a slight chance of light rain
during the afternoon. High temperatures today will range from
the mid 30s north to around 40 north to the lower 40s Downeast.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper teens to
around 20 north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. High
temperatures Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s north,
to the lower to mid 40s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will lift north through Quebec Friday night as high
pressure begins to build in from the west. This will bring a breezy
night with any rain or snow showers tapering off. High pressure
continuing to build in on Saturday will result in a partly cloudy
sky over the north with Downeast mostly sunny in Downsloping. High
pressure will crest to our southwest Saturday night. The gradient on
the northeastern side of the high will likely result in a westerly
breeze continuing Saturday night under a clear to partly cloudy
sky.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be to our south on Sunday as a weak occlusion
approaches from the west. This occlusion will bring increasing
clouds late Sunday followed by a chance for a bit of light snow
Sunday night into Monday, mainly central and north. Models
currently differ on snow amounts with the GFS carrying just an
open wave across which would give a dusting to up to an inch
across the north. The ECMWF, however, forms a low to our
southeast Monday night which would give the potential for up to
a few inches of snow across the area.
The shortwave and any associated lows would move east and away late
Monday into Monday night. Any lingering snow would taper off
followed by partial clearing and a gusty westerly breeze. High
pressure should build over on Tuesday bringing a partly sunny and
seasonable day Tuesday.
Looking ahead to mid-week next week, a new low lifting north from
the Great Lakes will have an occlusion extending southeast to
another low near Southern New England on Wednesday. This has the
potential to bring snow or rain north and rain Downeast on
Wednesday. Currently models differ considerably on how cold this
system will be. The ECMWF is coldest bringing snow to central
and northern areas. The GFS is a bit warmer with snow over the
far north and rain elsewhere, and the Canadian is warmest
suggesting rain for most of the area. Precipitation type may
depend on how quickly the secondary low forms.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas expect VFR conditions today
through early tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings then possible later
tonight through early Friday. MVFR/IFR conditions then develop
Friday afternoon with a light snow/rain mix. Across Downeast
areas, expect VFR conditions today through early Friday.
VFR/MVFR conditions then later Friday with a slight chance of
light rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots today. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast tonight. South/southeast
winds around 10 knots Friday.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night...VFR south, MVFR north. SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday...VFR. NW winds around 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. NW winds around 10 kt.
Sunday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north. W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday night...MVFR to IFR north. VFR south. W winds 10 kt.
Monday...IFR becoming VFR north. MVFR south, becoming VFR late. NW
winds around 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through Friday.
SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed for the offshore waters Friday
night through Saturday night for winds gusting up to 25 kt.
Another SCA may be needed late Monday into Monday night. Seas
around 4 ft Friday night into Saturday subsiding to 2 to 3 ft
Saturday night into early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...SM/CN
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...SM/CN/MB
Marine...SM/CN/MB
