me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 070000
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
700 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for southeast New
Hampshire and coastal York County starting tonight through the day
Saturday.
A Cold Weather Watch has been split into a Cold Weather
Advisory for much of western Maine and northern New Hampshire,
and a Extreme Cold Warning for southwest New Hampshire. The
trend has been for Saturday night to be the coldest, when
factoring raw temperature and wind, with Sunday night of lesser
magnitude.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Periods of moderate to localized heavy snow will bring difficult
travel late tonight through Saturday morning along coastal York
County and southeast New Hampshire. Mainly light snow is expected
across interior far western Maine and remaining areas of New
Hampshire.
2. A frigid airmass will push across the Northeast this
weekend, resulting in dangerous wind chill values Saturday
night and Sunday night. Widespread temperatures below zero
overnight are expected, with gusty winds making it feel like the
teens below zero from the coast to the foothills, and 20 to 30
below zero for the western third of the forecast area.
3. A warming trend settles into the region for next week with
temperatures near normal for early Feb. Will be watching for a
potential disturbance to bring wintry precipitation in the mid
to late week timeframe, but there remains uncertainty on exact
impacts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows one short wave approaching the Mid
Atlantic and a trailing short wave over the UP of Michigan. The
first wave will spawn an area of low pressure that passes well
southeast of Cape Cod Saturday while the trailing short wave
will provide synoptic support for an inverted trough extending
NW of the low pressure system.
We have experienced a couple of these inverted troughs this
winter that have resulted in periods of moderate to heavy
snowfall. What makes this event particularly challenging is
smaller scale nature of the heavy snowbands that form along
areas of convergence between Cape Ann, MA and Cape Porpoise, ME.
Recent runs of the HRRR and other HREF members have been
suggesting some impressive, but very localized QPF amounts in
excess of 0.75 inches within this area of coastline. However,
there are some HREF members that keep the heavier QPF offshore
or south of NH/MA border. Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory
in New Hampshire into far western Maine QPF generally ranges
from 0.1 to 0.2 inches with areas east of Portland seeing little
to no QPF.
Model soundings continue to strong lift through a moist DGZ for
few hours late tonight into Saturday morning across SE New
Hampshire and southern York County that will be favorable for
snow ratios of around 17:1 and snowfall rates around 1 inch per
hour. Closer to the immediate coast, soundings show some low
level instability that could help boost snowfall rates to 2
inches per hour. The going forecast has mostly utilized the NBM
which has tapered down the localized high QPF and resultant snow
amounts. I Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of
central and southern NH and coastal York county for snowfall of
2-6 inches with localized higher amounts possible along the NH
Seacoast and southern York County. Outside of the Advisory
snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast in NH and far
western Maine with little to now snow accumulation east of
Portland. Snowfall will gradually taper off Saturday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Forecast is still on track for Saturday and Sunday nights to
feature well below normal temperatures and gusty winds,
resulting in dangerously cold wind chills.
Saturday night looks to harbor the coldest conditions as
mid/upper jet drapes from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Low level north to northwest flow will broaden across the
Northeast, increasing cold air advection. The core of cold does
pass to the south and west of the forecast area, where 850mb
temps will near record low values based on 3 week centered
climo. Raw overnight temperatures fall into the single digits
above and below zero, with values nearing the teens below zero
NW of the mountains.
Such a strong push of cold air will be accompanied by winds,
and these will be what push conditions to be particularly frigid
and dangerous Saturday night. Overnight sustained winds of 10
to 18 mph with frequent gusts 20 to 30 mph will drive wind chill
values into the teens below zero or colder for the forecast
area. For much of the western third of the forecast area, values
of 20 to 30 below zero are forecast. This has prompted the
conversion of the Cold Weather Watch into respective areas of
Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning.
Values this cold can lead to frostbite in as little as 10 to 20
minutes on exposed skin. Any outdoor activities Saturday night
should be accompanied with plans if getting stranded outside is
a possibility. This is especially true for higher elevations,
particularly the Whites, where wind chill values could fall to
30 to 40 below given stronger winds here.
While the main push of cold air departs southeast into Sunday,
a cold air mass remains overhead through the day and into Sunday
night. Temps Sunday only rise into the teens before again
falling to the single digits above and below zero Sunday night.
This sets up another cold night with wind chills in the teens
below zero, but overall magnitude of winds will be less. Thus
headlines will likely again be needed, but maybe not as
widespread or extreme.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
As northwest winds depart, the area will see a warming trend
through early week. Beginning Tuesday, highs in the upper 20s to
around 30 will be possible into mid and late week.
There is one period of precipitation due to a passing
disturbance to watch for. This is generally mid week, Wed-Thurs,
as moisture or a part of a low pressure system rides across the
Great Lakes. This is ahead of broad high pressure moving into
the Upper Midwest. Should the low be better developed into
Quebec, it will look closer to a overunning event vs. cold
clipper. This means the possibility of a warm layer aloft that
could bring mixed precip to the surface. For now, surface temps
are forecast to sustain snow. Still some uncertainty in
forecast models on the duration and total QPF, but this will be
a period to watch for the next chance at slick travel conditions
across the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday: Ceilings lower to MVFR tonight with snow
developing over NH and then spreading into far western Maine.
Periods of moderate to heavy snow possible locally at KPSM and
KMHT. KPWM to AUG will be the edge of MVFR/VFR to the east and
IFR to the west in SN through Saturday afternoon. A cold front
will begin pushing across the forecast area after noontime. This
will result in a quick increase in NW winds gusting 25 to 30 kt
and a increase in snow intensity w/ BLSN. At the moment, this
looks to impact NH TAF locations the most through the afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday Night thru Sunday Night: Improvement to VFR Sat
evening, with HIE still seeing MVFR cigs. NW gusts to 25 kts,
slackening Sunday night. No sig wx.
Monday: VFR. No sig wx. NW winds 10 to 20 kts.
Monday night and Tuesday: VFR. No sig wx.
Tuesday night: VFR, ceilings will be thickening and lowering.
Light SN possibly approaching region.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast flow prevails over the waters tonight with winds and
seas remaining below SCA thresholds. Periods of moderate to
heavy snow will be possible over the waters late tonight through
Saturday morning that will bring visibility restrictions.
Gale conditions onset Saturday evening as northwesterlies. Gusts
to gale will be less frequent in the bays/harbors. Combination
of a cold air mass and the winds will result in moderate
freezing spray accretion Saturday night through Sunday night.
SCA conditions likely persist into early next week as offshore
wind direction continues.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MEZ007>009-012-013-018-019-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
MEZ023.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for NHZ001>006-009-010-012-013.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
NHZ008>010-012>015.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for NHZ007-008-011-015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ150>154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday
for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Schroeter
AVIATION...Cornwell
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 061901 AAD
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
146 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased confidence in cold wind chills and gusty conditions
this weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic front brings bitter wind chills this weekend.
2) Potential of a storm system for late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Arctic front brings bitter wind chills this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic front approaches the region Saturday, bringing frigid
cold air into northern and eastern Maine. Precipitation stays
well to our west and south, as associated low pressure system
is absorbed by a stronger low in the mid-Atlantic. Temperatures
crash Saturday night, bringing cold wind chills -25 to -20 in
the western North Woods, and -20 to -15 in northern Aroostook.
Wind chills around -15 to -10 in Central Highlands to Bangor
region, and -10 to -5 in the interior Downeast region. Similar
wind chills Sunday night, with wind chills -25 to -20 in the
western North Woods, and -20 to -15 in northern Aroostook. Wind
chills around -15 to -10 in Central Highlands to Bangor region,
and around -10 in the interior Downeast region. There is a good
pressure gradient right behind this front, bringing some gusty
winds over the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday.
Gusts 25 to 30 mph, with a potential to for blowing snow
throughout roads near open fields, reducing visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Potential of a storm system for late in the week
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
With the system fcst to affect the northeast at the end of next
week still being over the North Pacific, solutions will likely
change this weekend. That being said, some 12z guidance showing
potential for system Wednesday night and Thursday, while other
guidance does not. Ensemble guidance is an even mix of storm vs no
storm and will continue with chc pops Wednesday evening thru Friday
morning. Will continue to monitor the trends.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This afternoon - Tonight: VFR tonight at all terminals. Light
winds from the N. Winds become light and variable tonight.
Ceilings begin to fall down to low end VFR/MVFR ceilings at
northern terminals late tonight.
Saturday - Saturday night: Low end VFR/MVFR at northern
terminals early in the morning, before ceilings rise to VFR
during the day. Potential for blowing snow to impact terminals
Saturday night, as winds begin to pick up. N winds on Saturday
around 5-10 kts, becoming NW winds by Saturday night. Gusts
15-20 kts possible overnight at all terminals.
Sunday-Sunday night...VFR, tempo MVFR over nrn Aroostook terminals.
NW 10-20kts gusting to 25kts. DRSN/BLSN possible at sites. LLWS
possible.
Monday-Tuesday...VFR. NW 10-20kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through
Saturday night. Winds and seas start to approach Gales Saturday
evening into night. Seas generally 4-7 ft over the outer waters
Saturday night. Light freezing spray over the waters tonight,
relaxing and becoming light to moderate Saturday night. Some
snow showers possible Saturday over outer-waters. Winds from
N/NE tonight through Saturday night.
Gale force winds over the outer waters into Sunday morning
before diminishing to SCA levels. Seas look to remain above 5ft over
the outer waters through Monday morning with winds at marginal gale
conditions through Monday morning. Winds vary between small craft
and marginal gale conditions into Tuesday morning. Moderate freezing
spray expected into Monday afternoon, with light freezing spray
expected into Tuesday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/21
AVIATION...ASB/21
MARINE...ASB/21
FXUS61 KCAR 061901
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT
National Weather Service Caribou ME
146 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased confidence in cold wind chills and gusty conditions
this weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic front brings bitter wind chills this weekend.
2) Potential of a storm system for late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Arctic front brings bitter wind chills this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic front approaches the region Saturday, bringing frigid
cold air into northern and eastern Maine. Precipitation stays
well to our west and south, as associated low pressure system
is absorbed by a stronger low in the mid-Atlantic. Temperatures
crash Saturday night, bringing cold wind chills -25 to -20 in
the western North Woods, and -20 to -15 in northern Aroostook.
Wind chills around -15 to -10 in Central Highlands to Bangor
region, and -10 to -5 in the interior Downeast region. Similar
wind chills Sunday night, with wind chills -25 to -20 in the
western North Woods, and -20 to -15 in northern Aroostook. Wind
chills around -15 to -10 in Central Highlands to Bangor region,
and around -10 in the interior Downeast region. There is a good
pressure gradient right behind this front, bringing some gusty
winds over the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday.
Gusts 25 to 30 mph, with a potential to for blowing snow
throughout roads near open fields, reducing visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Potential of a storm system for late in the week
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
With the system fcst to affect the northeast at the end of next
week still being over the North Pacific, solutions will likely
change this weekend. That being said, some 12z guidance showing
potential for system Wednesday night and Thursday, while other
guidance does not. Ensemble guidance is an even mix of storm vs no
storm and will continue with chc pops Wednesday evening thru Friday
morning. Will continue to monitor the trends.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This afternoon - Tonight: VFR tonight at all terminals. Light
winds from the N. Winds become light and variable tonight.
Ceilings begin to fall down to low end VFR/MVFR ceilings at
northern terminals late tonight.
Saturday - Saturday night: Low end VFR/MVFR at northern
terminals early in the morning, before ceilings rise to VFR
during the day. Potential for blowing snow to impact terminals
Saturday night, as winds begin to pick up. N winds on Saturday
around 5-10 kts, becoming NW winds by Saturday night. Gusts
15-20 kts possible overnight at all terminals.
Sunday-Sunday night...VFR, tempo MVFR over nrn Aroostook terminals.
NW 10-20kts gusting to 25kts. DRSN/BLSN possible at sites. LLWS
possible.
Monday-Tuesday...VFR. NW 10-20kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through
Saturday night. Winds and seas start to approach Gales Saturday
evening into night. Seas generally 4-7 ft over the outer waters
Saturday night. Light freezing spray over the waters tonight,
relaxing and becoming light to moderate Saturday night. Some
snow showers possible Saturday over outer-waters. Winds from
N/NE tonight through Saturday night.
Gale force winds over the outer waters into Sunday morning
before diminishing to SCA levels. Seas look to remain above 5ft over
the outer waters through Monday morning with winds at marginal gale
conditions through Monday morning. Winds vary between small craft
and marginal gale conditions into Tuesday morning. Moderate freezing
spray expected into Monday afternoon, with light freezing spray
expected into Tuesday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/21
AVIATION...ASB/21
MARINE...ASB/21
