me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 080026
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
726 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight with some light
precipitation expected. We say precipitation because some of
that will fall in the form of snow and maybe a wintry mix in the
mountains. A breezy Saturday will give way to increasing clouds
and a stronger storm system Sunday. Outside of some mountain
snow, it will mostly be a cold rain across the area. A much
stronger cold front crosses the region Tuesday. Gusty northwest
winds will usher in a colder air mass and temperatures are
likely to remain in the 40s during the day for the rest of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
725 PM...Have mainly refreshed temperatures and PoPs based on
latest observations as precipitation expands east across the
area. Area webcams across northwest Maine show a decent burst of
snow has moved across the mountains with a coating of snow down
to the valleys. Warmer air aloft will continue to push northeast
across the area that will result in snow changing to a wintry
mix across the north and then rain by midnight.
Previously...
A shortwave moves in from the west this afternoon, bringing a cold
front across the region. Model guidance has consistently shown a
much drier trend with the passing front, with no more than a quarter
of an inch of rain expected. The front passes the region late at
night, with most of the precipitation out of the area by early
Saturday morning. Some front end wintry mix / snow is also possible
north of the mountains this evening, though no more than a coating
of snow/sleet is expected. A localized glaze of ice can not be ruled
out in this area as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions generally improve through the day on Saturday, with
upslope showers expected in the mountains. These showers gradually
wind down through the day and skies clear up everywhere as higher
pressure moves in. Highs look to be on the warmer side, with upper
40s in the mountains and lower 60s near the coast.
Saturday night, partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds
will allow for chilly low temperatures. It's not likely that
locations will completely calm, so radiational cooling Saturday
night will likely be inefficient. Lows look to range from lower 20s
in the north to mid-30s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message: Near to below normal temps thru the extended. Best
chance for precip early in the week followed by breezy offshore
winds and upslope showers.
Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated. Some
wintry weather expected in the mtns.
Forecast Details: Most of the action will occur in the first
part of the extended as a seasonably strong trof crosses the
eastern CONUS. The bulk of the anomalous conditions will be in
the base of the trof...mainly over the Southeast...but a strong
upper level jet and left exit region will approach the forecast
area Sun/Sun night. Ensemble already showing a good cold air
damming signal...with u- shaped isobar pattern and high
pressures branching north of the region. This is a common
failure mode for the NBM temps...so I have lowered both max
temps and hourly temps Sun as precip moves in with that in mind.
It will be a cold rain for most...but some wintry precip is
likely for the higher terrain. It will start as snow
initially...but as the column should dry out eventually this may
turn to drizzle/freezing drizzle. Given the uncertainty
surrounding surface temps at this range...I have kept precip
types just rain and snow for now.
By Mon night a solid cold front will be working thru the
region. Strong CAA will help with mechanical mixing but I would
not be surprised if we needed a little sunshine Tue to help mix
the front completely thru. CAA will continue into at least Tue
night...so I anticipate gusty winds for around 24 hrs. That will
also start a period of below normal weather...where temps
largely stay in the 40s for most locations. With continued
offshore winds thru the remainder of the week...upslope cloud
cover and rain/snow showers will also linger in the mtns.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Restrictions lower this evening as a shortwave
bring rain to the area. Snow may lower restrictions further
north of the mountains briefly this evening. By Saturday
morning, restrictions improve as dry air works its way back into
the area. VFR expected from Saturday morning through Sunday
morning.
Long Term...Conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly on
Sun as precip moves in during the afternoon. Areas of IFR or
lower are anticipated into Mon. TAF sites are likely to remain
MVFR VIS in rain...but HIE may be close to snow at times with
the IFR VIS that typically brings. Otherwise low CIGs will drive
the flight restrictions. Some marginal LLWS is possible Sun
night as east southeast LLJ will lift over the top of light
northeast winds at the surface. This will be most likely away
from the coast. Offshore flow from Mon onward will bring VFR
conditions south of the mtns...but HIE will likely experience
MVFR CIGs at times in upslope cloud cover. Surface wind gusts on
Tue may exceed 25 kt at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas increase to SCA levels tonight, with
southerly picks picking up to around 30kts. Seas will peak early
Saturday morning at 3-7ft. By Saturday morning, marine
conditions improve with diminishing seas and westerly winds
through the day. Seas return to below SCA levels by Saturday
evening. Winds and seas continue to calm from then through
Sunday morning.
Long Term...Winds and seas will increase Sun night as east
southeast LLJ lifts over the waters. At this time SCA conditions
appear most likely. After a brief break Mon a strong cold front
crosses the waters and winds become stronger Tue. Gale force
gusts are possible outside the bays with strong SCAs likely
inside the bays. Generally gusty offshore flow will continue for
much of the rest of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Along to offshore winds continue to produce a negative surge
and likely will continue to do so through Saturday. While
astronomical tides remain high through the weekend, no flooding
is anticipated.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Palmer/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Legro/Palmer
MARINE...Legro/Palmer
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 072318
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
618 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking into Quebec will pull a warm front north
across the area tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday.
High pressure will build overhead Saturday night. Low pressure
will approach on Sunday, cross the area Monday and continue into
eastern Canada Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
A warm front will lift north across the region overnight. Expect
light snow across northern areas to transition to all rain
before ending later tonight. Any snow accumulation before the
changeover is expected to generally be an inch or less. Across
the Bangor region and Downeast rain is expected. Expect slowly
rising temperatures overnight. Temperatures by daybreak
Saturday are expected to range from the upper 30s to around 40
across the north and the upper 40s to around 50 for the Bangor
region and Downeast.
See updated marine and aviation sections below.
previous discussion
Ridge axis extending thru the CWA will shift east this evening as
low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Warm front has lifted
into srn New England at this time. With warm lifting thru the CWA
this evening overrunning will develop in conjunction with favorable
jet dynamics and blyr cold enuf for snow at onset north of
Millinocket. As front lifts thru the region overnight, warm air will
change snow over to rain during the evening toward Houlton just
before midnight and over the St. John Valley around 3 am.
Plenty of lift looks to be available with a quick burst of snow btwn
00-06z tonight. Overall qpf during this time will range from 0.10-
0.20 inches with best lift just below the snow growth area. Strong
winds will tend to fragment any snowflakes that fall and likely
result in lower accums. With ground temps still being warm and snow
changing to rain not expecting to wake up to much snow in the
morning, unless snow falls at an intense rate.
Initial boundary looks to move thru shortly before daybreak with
rainfall coming to an end as dry slot works in. Cold front will move
thru the area in the afternoon.
Skies will begin to clear Saturday evening with high pressure
building in. Though winds will remain well-mixed H8 temps drop to
-5C and will bring mins into the 20s over all locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vertically stacked low pressure system over Canada swings
through the northeast on Sunday. There has been some
discrepancy in model runs over whether a coastal low pressure
system will also develop Sunday into Monday, but latest runs
are favoring its development. Dry and cloudy on Sunday, as
clouds and chances of precipitation increase Sunday evening
into nighttime. Surface trough drapes over Maine, which is a
favorable set up for cold air damming in the Central Highlands
region. Dropped temperatures down during the day Sunday, as a
result of this. Otherwise, highs generally in the upper-30s in
the north, to mid-40s Downeast and along the coast.
Sunday night, low pressure in Canada moves into Maine, as
coastal low slides along the Gulf of Maine, decent moisture is
advected into the region with PWATs ranging from three quarters
of an inch to an inch in the north, and one inch to an inch and
a quarter Downeast. Precipitation overnight begins as snow
north of I-95, with a rain/snow transition along the central
Highlands, and rain to the south. Overnight temperatures drop
down into the upper-20s and low-30s in the north, and upper-30s
and low-40s Downeast and along the coast.
Winds begin to pick up Sunday night as low system approaches,
shifting directions from the east to the west throughout the day
on Monday. This is the result of strong mid-level jet that
swings through central Maine, predominantly impacting the
Downeast region. Once the sun rises and temperatures increase,
all precipitation transitions over to rain. Given warm air
advection ahead of aforementioned coastal low pressure system,
temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid-40s in the north
and, mid-50s along the coast. Mostly cloudy skies. Rain
throughout the day into Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather persists in between pressure systems, as rain
showers persist Monday night, potentially changing over to snow
in the north by Tuesday. Next low pressure system moves into
New Brunswick, with deep trough swinging through New England,
bringing another chance for precipitation mid-to-late week.
Generally, decreasing temperature trend, with highs in the
mid-30s in the north and low-40s Downeast. Overnight lows in the
20s. Potential for breezy conditions Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR this evening
in snow/rain and continue until 12z to 14z Saturday. Conditions
will then improve to VFR all terminals by Saturday afternoon.
S to SE wind 5 to 10 kt tonight. LLWS expected 07z to 14z
Saturday. SW wind around 10 kt Saturday becoming W.
Outlook for Saturday night...VFR. N to NW wind.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday: Mainly VFR, decreasing towards MVFR late from south to
north as snow showers move into the north and rain showers into
the south. Winds shift from the NW to the E, at around 5 kts.
Sunday night - Monday night: MVFR/IFR across all terminals,
possible LIFR in rain/snow mix at northern terminals early
Monday morning. E winds 5 to 10 kts through Monday afternoon,
shifting SW at 5 to 10 kts Monday night. LLWS possible Monday
afternoon into night.
Tuesday - Tuesday night: Generally VFR, with MVFR possible in
rain showers, with snow possibly mixing in at northern terminals
early. SW to W winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
Wednesday: Generally VFR early, before MVFR in rain/snow
showers. Winds SW at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 25kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will continue to increase to SCA levels
overnight and then continue through Saturday evening.
SHORT TERM: Seas and winds generally stay below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday, an then reaches Small Craft Advisory
conditions Sunday night into Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 30 kts
possible during this time frame, with waves reaching up into 6-8
ft. Wave heights and wind gusts stay elevated throughout the
rest of the week. Generally, rain over the waters possible
Sunday night into Monday, and then sporadic rain showers
throughout the waters through the rest of the week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...21/TWD
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...21/TWD/ASB
Marine...21/TWD/ASB
