me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 251803
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
103 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes will send
moisture into New England through the day with light rain developing
tonight. A cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing blustery conditions by Thanksgiving through the holiday
weekend. Another cold front approaches later in the day on
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front lifts through New England tonight. This brings a
period of mainly light rain across the area through the evening
and overnight hours. A brief period of light freezing rain is
possible in some cooler pockets across the northern valleys.
Even here temps quickly warm to freezing after the precip
starts, with mainly rain continuing into the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Much of tomorrow is spent in the warm sector of a large system
centered across the Great Lakes. However, it won't feel like in
most locations as a lingering cold air dam keeps a shallow low
level cool airmass in place with low clouds, sprinkles, and
periods of drizzle. This will mostly be found through and east
of the mountains and foothills, with temps mostly lingering in
the low 40s much of the day.
The areas most likely to break into the warmer air and see a
few breaks of sunshine by the late afternoon will be across
southern New Hampshire, the Connecticut River Valley, and the
far southern Maine coast. Here, temps climb into the 50s through
the day, with some highs near 60 degrees along the Mass border.
During the overnight hours, a weak triple point low brings one
more round of organized showers through tomorrow night. The
steadiest rain is likely to be found across the north. This
mostly moves through by daybreak on Thanksgiving, with only some
lingering rain and snow showers across the higher terrain. The
cold front pushes offshore by daybreak as well, with an
increasing westerly breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precipitation will be largely over with to start out Thanksgiving
morning as low pressure begins to lift up into the Canadian
Maritimes. There could be a few snow showers in the mountains, but
looks like the low-level wind direction will be more southwesterly
and doesn't really favor the upslope precip. Otherwise, it'll be
breezy with gusts of 25 to 35 mph based on forecast soundings and
highs in the 40s south of the mountains. In general, expect to it be
partly cloudy, but with the upper-low still lurking to the north and
west, I think there will be periods of mostly cloudy skies.
Surface low pressure remains over the Maritimes Friday and Saturday
resulting in a blustery couple of days with a tight pressure
gradient over New England. Temperatures will be on a downward trend
with CAA with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s south of the mountains
Friday and then largely in the 30s by Saturday, but the winds will
make it feel even chillier. Based on forecast soundings, looking at
westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but there's potential for some
to exceed 40 mph on Friday per the top of the mixed layer on NAM
forecast soundings. Periods of snow showers are likely in the
mountains Friday into Saturday as the wind direction favors upslope
precip, and Froude numbers indicate unblocked flow. So we may need
to add a chance of snow showers south of the mountains in future
updates, especially on Friday.
High pressure returns late Saturday into the first part of Sunday,
but it quickly shifts east as a cold front approaches the region and
brings the next shot as widespread precipitation. Models are
favoring a more northward track of the low, which could bring mostly
rain south of the mountains Sunday into Sunday night, but there
could be rain/snow mix if precip begins early enough before the
column warms. Will also have to watch for gusty winds along the
coast as some deterministic solutions are showing a pretty stout low-
level jet.
There's pretty good agreement in precip ending either late Sunday
night or early Monday once the cold front crosses. However, the
pattern remains active with troughing continuing over the Northeast,
and it's possible another system is already approaching around next
Tuesday. So the NBM PoPs of 40-50% seem very reasonable given the
support from ensemble guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR quickly drops to IFR and LIFR late this
evening too around midnight as rain and low ceilings move in.
HIE likely only drops to MVFR ceilings tonight and tomorrow.
Elsewhere. LIFR-IFR linger through at least midday Wednesday,
then some MVFR breaks are possible at LEB, MHT, CON, PSM, and
PWM in the late afternoon. IFR likely returns tomorrow night
with another round of showers, and then ceilings gradually
improve back to MVFR toward daybreak on Thursday.
Long Term...Mostly VFR Thurs-Saturday night except for periods
of MVFR ceilings and snow showers will be possible at HIE. It
will also be breezy during the daylight hours with 25-30 kt at
times, possibly over 35 kt at times. This will be mainly 13Z-21Z
each day with the breezier day expected to be Friday. Chances
for precipitation and flight restrictions increase as a cold
front approaches the region on Sunday. At this time,
precipitation type favors mostly rain (except snow at HIE), but
there could be a rain/snow mix as far south as AUG/LEB.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Marginal SCA conditions continue into late
tomorrow morning as a warm front crosses through tonight. A cold
front then crosses the waters late tomorrow night and Thursday
morning, with a building period of SCA conditions late tomorrow
night in SW-W winds ahead of any gale conditions on Thursday.
Long Term...West to southwesterly gales are looking more likely
from Thursday all the way through Friday night as a tight
pressure gradient sets up with low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes. High pressure brings a brief period of improvement
Saturday night and the first part of Sunday before a southerly
flow increases ahead of a cold front that looks to cross Sunday
night or early Monday. There may be a period of gales with this
system as well.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
154.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning
for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Combs
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 252307
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
607 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches An occluded front will approach on
Wednesday and lift north of the area Wednesday night. Low
pressure will track across southern Quebec Thursday and Thursday
night, then into the northeastern Canadian Maritimes on Friday.
High pressure builds in from the west Friday night and
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Satellite shows cloudy skies across the forecast area at this
hour. Precipitation will expand north later tonight, mainly in
the form of rain across the Bangor region and Downeast Maine.
Can't totally rule out a bit of light freezing rain across the
far north toward Wednesday morning. But it would be short lived
before it changes quickly to rain. No changes to current
forecast at this hour.
See updated aviation section.
previous discussion
Key Messages
-Rain moves in late tonight
-May see very brief freezing rain late tonight over central
areas with minimal impacts
The triple point of the occlusion will start to move into the
region tonight. The question remains the same, how far north
will the precip be able to progress with the dry mid/low levels.
The models remain the same with keeping all precip out of the
north of the night. Rain will move into the south after midnight
with snow and mixed freezing rain in the higher terrain. The
freezing rain is expected to be short lived as the warm temps
surge north through the night. For this update, the CAD will
have cooler temps as well as the north, but the precip type is
expected to stay mainly liquid with some snow working into the
cooler areas. Upper air model sounding indicate the column
moistening in the lower levels by the time the warmer air moves
in. By Wednesday, the entire region will see rain with the north
seeing rain in the late morning to early afternoon. By
Wednesday night, the rain will gradually move off to the north.
The cold airmass behind the system will move into the North
Woods bring temps to just below freezing, thus some snow is
possible in this area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday...
The precipitation exits Maine off to the northeast by mid-morning
Thursday. Looks like it will end as a cold rain for most
places, except from around Moosehead Lake north into the North
Woods, where a quick changeover to snow is possible. Even if
this does occur, thinking snow accumulation will be around an
inch tops. Otherwise, breezy from the west and partly/mostly
cloudy Thursday, with highs around 40 north and the mid 40s to
low 50s Downeast.
Thursday Night and Friday...
A large cutoff vertically stacked cutoff low pressure approaches
from the west Thursday night and passes just north of us during
the day Friday. This puts us in a favorable setup for snow
showers and possibly snow squalls during the day Friday with an
unstable airmass, steep low-level lapse rates, and breezy
conditions. Think that the best shot at squalls will be in NE
portions of the area from about Millinocket NE. One slightly
limiting factor is that there isn't a well-defined Arctic front,
so expect more of open cellular convection. Also, temperatures
outside of showers will be in the mid 30s, so it'll be a touch
mild, though any showers should bring temps down to near or just
below freezing at least temporarily. Additionally, winds look a
bit marginal with most gusts around 20-25 mph, so will need
some heavier showers to help generate any gusts around 30 mph
(squall criteria).
Models are in good agreement through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in toward Saturday night. Saturday night
could be quite cold if the timing of the high pressure works out
right. We are going for teens to low 20s, but could foresee
some places getting to the single digits.
Next concern is a likely system for late Sunday and Sunday
night. Most models have this coming from a surface low passing
to the north of the area, meaning we will be susceptible to warm
advection and snow changing to rain. Still lots of uncertainty
on precipitation amounts and how much of the area gets rain vs
snow, but chances favor mostly rain for about the southern half
of the area, with a change from snow to rain possible in the
north too. Did go a bit warmer than NBM for the late Sunday to
early Monday period, and brought rain/snow mix north to Van
Buren after the start as snow. Potential is there for a general
1-3 inch snow in the north, perhaps a bit more in the far north,
but again, still a lot of uncertainty.
Heading into early/mid-week, the weather pattern remains active
with likely more weather systems to keep an eye on under strong
upper level W/SW flow, but confidence on any particular system
is not there.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals this evening with ceilings
decreasing to MVFR then IFR for KBGR/KBHB aft 06z, then
10z to 12z for the Aroostook terminals. Widespread IFR/LIFR
all terminals on Wednesday. Light and variable wind tonight,
then NE 5 to 10 kt on Wednesday.
Outlook for Wednesday night...IFR. E wind 5 to 10 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday: Becoming VFR by 14z except for possibly at KFVE where
MVFR conditions could linger through the day. W/SW winds around
10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
Thursday night-Friday night: VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible
in any snow showers at northern terminals, with the best chance
for any restrictions during the day on Friday. W/SW winds
gusting to 25 kts Friday.
Saturday: VFR. W winds gusting 20-25 kts.
Saturday Night: VFR. Winds becoming variable 5 kts or less.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible late with rain or snow
possible. S wind 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory continues through tonight and
into Wednesday night. Winds will decrease by Wednesday afternoon
below SCA levels and remain to Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM:
Have issued a gale watch for all but the intracoastal waters
for midday Thursday through Friday night, as we are looking at a
prolonged period of strong W winds. Unstable airmass and
steeper lapse rates should allow these winds to mix down to the
surface. Seas will be 6-9 ft. The winds ease late Saturday into
Saturday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning
for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/ARL
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...TWD/ARL/TF
Marine...TWD/ARL/TF
