FXUS61 KGYX 220844
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
444 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Low pressure will track east of the Gulf of Maine today, before
moving through the Canadian Maritimes tonight. An upper level
trough of low pressure will cross over northern New England on
Friday and early Saturday. Yet another upper level trough will
cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night. High
pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday and will
hold over the area on Tuesday. A warm front will approach the
region from the west Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have updated the forecast based on current conditions and latest
Radar imagery. A band of snow moved onshore from the Gulf of
Maine during the early morning hours. However, dry air in place
has diminished this feature. New bands of snow continue to
rotate around the periphery of our offshore system, so we expect
some snow to survive the trip to the coastline. Will leave 1 to
3 inches of snow in the forecast, but drop the remaining winter
weather advisories for the coast of Maine.
Otherwise, some tweaks were made for pops today.
Plenty of dry air remains in placed over Maine and
New Hampshire, especially over the interior. Dew point
depressions are also inhibiting the potential for snow across
much of the region. Having said that, a band of snow has moved
onshore during the early morning hours with visibilities as low
as one mile reported within it. Will monitor this band as it
continues to move gradually to the northwest.
Most large scale operational models suggest very little in the
way of precipitation this morning. However, will continue to
monitor this mesoscale band and will hold onto the winter
weather advisories for a few more hours along the coast. Will
drop the advisories over much, if not all of New Hampshire. This
band may deposit some light snow over the interior as well.
Either way, the snow should rapidly melt today with forecast
high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s over southern
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cyclonic flow aloft and northwesterly low level winds will allow
for some upslope conditions in the mountains tonight and Friday.
Therefore, expect some scattered snow showers across the higher
terrain. More melting will occur during the day Friday despite
temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Expect
reading to reach 40 degrees in southern and central areas.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models in fairly good agreement for the end of the week and the
first half of the weekend as an upper trough remains parked over
the area, Looking for variable clouds Friday night with just a
slight chance of snow showers in the mountains. Lows will range
through the 20s.
Any morning sunny breaks Saturday will quickly give way to mostly
cloudy skies as low level moisture and surface trough rotates in
from the northeast, Will see snow showers during the afternoon in
eastern zones. Highs Saturday will range through the 30s to near 40.
Trough will work its way toward the southwest Saturday evening
pushing the chance of snow showers into southwest zones before
ending after midnight. May see some light accumulations during the
late afternoon and evening but should only amount to an inch or less
in most areas. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid teens
north to the mid 20s south.
Clouds will gradually diminish from north to south during the day on
Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs will top out
below normal ranging from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south.
Any lingering clouds will gradually clear Sunday evening as high
pressure continues to build in from the north. Clearing skies and
light winds will allow for good radiational cooling with lws ranging
through the teens north and lower to mid 20s south.
Sprawling high pressure will park over the region on Monday and will
hold through Tuesday bringing moderating temps and abundant sunshine.
Highs on Monday will range through the 30s toi near 40 and generally
range through the 40s on Tuesday.
Mid level shortwave will approach from the west Tuesday night
bringing increasing clouds and the chance for a little light mixed
precip after midnight. Associated surface low will gradually fill over
southern Quebec on Wednesday and will drive a weak cold front through
the region Wednesday evening. Will likely include some chance pops for
showers during the day but expect these to be light and spotty.
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Expecting VFR conditions for another few hours
while dry air erodes the leading edge of the -SN. After 04z Srn
NH will likely quickly go to IFR conditions in SN...closer to
06z across coastal Wrn ME. In that 06-12z window...SN may become
moderate at times with LIFR conditions possible. SN tapers off
mid morning Thu...though SHSN may linger into the afternoon...especially
across Nrn NH and Wrn ME. NNE winds will also remain gusty...with
surface gusts approaching 20 to 25 kts at all terminals.
VFR with areas of MVFR ceilings Friday night. MVFR/IFR
ceilings/vsby developing Saturday into Saturday night. Becoming
VFR on Sunday. VFR Monday and Tuesday.
Short Term...NE winds will continue to steadily increase thru
tonight ahead of approaching coastal storm. Expecting gales
outside the bays...with marginal gales in Casco and Penobscot
Bay. Seas are expected to increase to 15 to 20 ft tonight. Winds
and seas will slowly diminish Thu.
SCA's likely Friday night through Sunday.
NWS, USGS and GMRI wave runup output continues to indicate some
minor impact with high tide this afternoon. Expect some minor
splash-over and/or beach erosion in York and Rockingham
counties for this afternoon's tide. We may be issuing a
statement to cover this very minor event. Wave periods will
increase today, allowing for wave action to ride up the beach
and to the dune systems.
A storm may form well off the coast out in the Atlantic early
next week, before retrograding well off the southern New England
and Mid Atlantic coastlines. This may allow for building, long
period swells to reach the Maine and New Hampshire coastline
during the early to mid week period next week, potentially
leading to some beach erosion splash-over.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150>154.
FXUS61 KCAR 220832
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
432 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine and over
far eastern Nova Scotia today then continue on toward Newfoundland
tonight. A large ridge of high pressure will build into eastern
Canada this weekend and crest over our region early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For now, no chgs to the current wntr wx adv area for sn/blsn
currently ovr all of Hancock and Washington counties til 4 pm.
Of all of the 00z dtmnstc models, only the ECMWF gives
sufficient QPF thru the 18-00z tm frame tdy to result in snfl to
warrant the adv ovr this ptn of the FA. Most of the others now
keep better banding of snfl just S of SE ME, so there is a chc
we may be to canx advs for part or all of th wntr wx advs early.
Also, practically all models do not get the leading nrn edge of
snfl past a Mars Hill- rn Baxter St Park line erly this aftn
before sn retreats ewrd into NB prov late this aftn. This lead
us to lower PoPs a little to chc or less across the NW and far
NE with little mention of accumulation.
In any event, whats left of steady snfl should be exiting into
NB prov by late aftn leaving sct sn shwrs N and Cntrl and sct
rn/sn shwrs Downeast with all shwrs ending this eve as winds
subside and skies partially clear by erly Fri morn. Hi temps
tdy will be a little below avg for this tm of season due to cld
cvr and potential snfl with abv avg ovrngt lows with initially
little in the way of colder air behind the departing low.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will be tracking up across Newfoundland on Friday as
the upper trough progresses through the northeast. An upper low
embedded within the trough will be dropping south into New York
state Friday while a small shortwave ridge east of that low pushes
across our area. This should allow partial sunshine with seasonable
high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. A strong ridge of high
pressure will begin building into east central Canada on Saturday
while a trough over the Maritimes hangs back across our region. Some
moisture embedded within the trough combined with an upper shortwave
low dropping south, just to our west, may produce snow showers
Saturday. Some briefly heavier snow squalls producing a quick inch
of snow in some central and northern spots are possible during the
midday and afternoon as some instability develops in the low levels.
The snow showers may also be supported by an inverted trough
extending north through the area.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow showers should taper off Saturday night as the trough drops
south of the region. A strong, deep ridge of high pressure will then
build down from Canada on Sunday bringing clearing from north to
south across the area. Clear skies and bright sunny days can then be
expected Sunday night through Tuesday as the high crests over the
area. Temperatures will be near normal Monday then a few
degrees above normal on Tuesday. The ridge is then expected to
break down on Wednesday as a weak frontal system pushes in from
the west bringing increasing clouds with a chance for snow or
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TAF sites from KBHB to KHUL will transition to IFR
ovr the course of the morn in sn/blsn then remain so into the
erly to mid aftn before improving back MVFR late this aftn in
sct sn shwrs and then to VFR tngt as sn shwrs end and clgs lift.
Nrn TAF sites will begin VFR erly this morn, then potentially
transition to MVFR in intermittent lgt sn/blsn late this morn
contg into the aftn before improving to VFR tngt. KFVE may cont
to have MVFR clgs into the ovrngt.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Friday into Friday night.
MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions in snow showers are likely
Saturday. Conditions should improve to VFR across the north
Saturday night then over the rest of the area Sunday. VFR
conditions in clear skies are expected Sunday night into
NEAR TERM: Gale wrngs cont across our waters with a transition
to an SCA xpctd some time this eve as winds subside. Went about
2 to 3 ft abv the WW3/NWPS guidance blend for tdy, merging
closer to guidance late tngt. Vsbys will ocnly be less than 1 nm
attms due to falling sn spcly this morn into the midday hrs,
with vsbys improving this aftn and tngt as precip becomes shwry
and then ends.
SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed Friday morning for north winds
gusting up to 25 kt. Winds should then be below SCA Friday
afternoon into Saturday, then increasing to SCA in northeast
winds gusting up to 25 or 30 kt Saturday night into Sunday.
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052.