me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 161744
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1244 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow will persist across the mountains and far north
through Monday with gusty westerly winds. High pressure will
build across New England by the middle of the week, allowing for
calmer winds and mainly dry conditions. The next widespread
precipitation chance then comes Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected
Low pressure is slowly working its way northeastward up the
coast so light showers are blossoming again there. Upslope snow
showers briefly subsided, but with an upper low moving in from
the north they are getting going again. CAMs and Froude numbers
suggest some flakes may make it into the foothill and even the
coastal plain.
The center of low pressure pushes off to the northeast tonight,
bringing shower activity outside of the mountains to an end. A
Shortwave rotates around an upper low now overhead which will
increase cloud cover downstream of the mountains (with a few flakes
possible) as flow remains critical overnight. In the mountains the
forcing from both the shortwave and the northwest flow will continue
light snow showers with gradual accumulations. We remain breezy and
well mixed overnight, but the cold air advection still allows low
temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid-20s in the north, and
in the upper 20s and low 30s to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected
By Monday morning both low pressure centers end up well to our
north east, taking a lot of the moisture with them. We should
start to see clouds break up outside of the mountains, but the
now deep layer northwest flow keeps clouds and light snow
showers in the forecast in the higher terrain. Clouds and
showers limit high temperatures in the north to the upper 20s
and low 30s. Clear skies and drier weather should allow for
highs to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s to the south of
the mountains. Breezy winds continue, so it may feel quite a bit
colder (teens and 20s) as gusts are in the 25-35 mph range.
Despite clearer skies we remain well mixed, so radiational
cooling won't be a factor but the continued cold air advection
will drop temperatures into the 20s areawide. Upslope snow
shower continue, but surface moisture becomes sparse so these
likely retreat to the higher peaks.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We start out the long term under northwest flow aloft, leading
to some lingering upslope snow showers through the day on
Tuesday across the mountains. Westerly winds will also remain
breezy through the day on Tuesday, diminishing late. The flow
then starts to deamplify a bit Tuesday night into Wednesday as
modest ridging approaches. Most of the showery activity in the
mountains should diminish late Tuesday into Wednesday but a
shower or two will be possible across the north country on
Wednesday.
A low amplitude ridge axis crosses the region Wednesday night
with a quick moving (mainly dry) shortwave on it's heels
Thursday. Most of the forcing from this weak wave should remain
south of our forecast area but a glancing blow could lead to
some low precipitation chances across southern New Hampshire
with little to no impact. The flow then becomes nearly zonal
until Friday afternoon when we transition back into southwest
flow aloft in advance of the next longwave trough. Widespread
medium to high precipitation chances then spread across the
forecast area Friday afternoon through at least Saturday
morning, but considerable uncertainty remains about how long
precipitation may linger with significant differences noted
among the global deterministic models. Perusing the latest
cluster analysis, at this point it seems like a more progressive
open wave scenario is clearly favored rather than a
stronger/closed low solution. If these trends keep up, then
liquid precipitation totals are likely to mainly fall in that
0.25 to 0.50 inch range with only light snow totals in the
higher elevations.
Regarding temperatures, we should very gradually warm through
the week. That being said, we start off with highs below normal
(mid to upper 20s north, to the low to mid 40s south) on
Tuesday, and move towards highs only around normal (upper 30s to
mid 40s north, to the upper 40s to lower 50s south) by
Friday/Saturday. It should be noted that NBM temperature spreads
remain high Friday and Saturday, likely a symptom of the
pattern uncertainty discussed above.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...TAF sites are mostly VFR with some light showers
out there this afternoon. VFR look to prevail through the night
as showers come to an end. Wind gusts remain around 20kts at
most terminals through the night. HIE likely stays MVFR with
light snow overnight. VFR prevails outside of the mountains
tomorrow as well with wind gusts 25-30kts.
Long Term...Other than some snow showers near HIE on Tuesday,
VFR is likely through most of this week. A return of widespread
precipitation chances could lead to some restrictions late in the
week and into the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Westerly gales develop on the outer waters this
evening and last into Monday night, with seas building to 5-7
feet. Gales taper off overnight Monday, but wind gusts remain
25- 30kts, with seas 5-6 feet into early Tuesday morning.
Long Term...Gusty northwest winds will allow for 4-7ft seas on
Tuesday, with SCA issuance likely. Conditions go below SCA
thresholds by Wednesday morning, with northwest flow weakening.
Winds become lighter and more variable through the end of the
week, with conditions expected to stay below SCA thresholds
through the second half of this week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for
ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST
Monday night for ANZ151-153.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST Monday
night for ANZ154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Hargrove
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 161810
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
110 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north across New Brunswick tonight then up
over Newfoundland Monday into Monday night. Low pressure will remain
well to our north Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in
from the west. High pressure will crest over the area Thursday then
continue east of the region Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will continue to intensify this evening as it tracks
north through New Brunswick. A dry intrusion lifting north may limit
snow for a bit early this evening. However, as the low intensifies,
the snow is expected to fill in again, mainly over the highlands on
north tonight. Forecast snow amounts remain very challenging from
Caribou and Presque Isle on east where some milder air backing in
from the Maritimes and some downsloping off the higher elevations of
New Bruswick may limit amounts a bit. Latest model guidance is
suggesting precipitation should remain all snow, though it may be
wet and dense later tonight as milder air backs in. Snow will
diminish to snow showers later tonight as the low continues
northeast toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Latest forecast
guidance just coming in is showing slightly lesser amounts for
far western areas and greater amounts for the northeast.
However, this is all contingent on the coverage of snow
expanding again as the low develops to our southeast this
evening.
Low pressure will continue away to the northeast across the Gulf of
St. Lawrence on Monday. Lingering snow showers and a gusty
northwesterly wind will follow as high pressure begins to build well
to our southwest.
the low will retrograde northwest across Labrador Monday night
keeping us in a gusty northwesterly flow around the southern edge of
its circulation. Some flurries will still be possible over the north
and west. Otherwise, the north will be mostly cloudy while Downeast
is partly cloudy in some downsloping.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly quiet Tuesday/Wednesday, with high pressure slowly building
in from the west and becoming centered over the area Wednesday
night. Still a decent westerly breezy Tuesday to Wednesday, with
the stronger breeze on Tuesday. Generally partly to mostly
cloudy north, and mostly clear Downeast. Can't rule out a few
snow showers in the north Tuesday, but nothing impactful.
Seasonably cool Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the mid 30s to
low 40s and lows in the 20s. High confidence in the forecast
Tuesday/Wednesday with models in good agreement.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure overhead Wednesday night, which will likely be the
coolest night with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. High
pressure then moves east with the next system on track mainly
for Friday afternoon and Friday night. Models/ensembles favor
rain over snow for this system, with roughly three quarters of
solutions favoring mostly rain over snow. That said, a few
solutions (about a quarter) have the trough amplifying enough to
spin up a decent Gulf of Maine/Canadian Maritime low which would
favor a snowier scenario, not too unlike what we are seeing
with the current weather system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected across the north tonight with
MVFR conditions over the south, possibly improving to VFR late.
North wind around 10 kt over the north and west wind and around 10
across the south.
IFR to occasionally MVFR north and MVFR to VFR south on Monday. NW
winds 10 to 15 kt gusting to 30 kt.
MVFR over the north and VFR south Monday night. W wind around 10 kt
gusting to 20 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with possible MVFR ceilings northern
terminals mainly in the morning. W wind 10-15 kts with gusts to
25 kts.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with W winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night...VFR. Variable winds 5
kts or less.
Friday...VFR early, with possible MVFR/IFR late. S wind
increasing to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A SCA for the intracoastal waters and a gale for the offshore
waters will be up through Monday night for gusty WNW winds. Seas
will be up to 7 to 9 ft tonight and Monday, subsiding to 6 to 8
ft Monday night.
SHORT TERM: Gales could persist into early Tuesday, but then
winds/seas gradually decrease into Wednesday night, with very
quiet conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night. Next
shot at small craft or possibly gales comes late Friday into
early Saturday, but confidence is low.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MEZ001>006-
010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-
051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MB
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...MB/TF
Marine...MB/TF
