Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 201834
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
134 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the Northeast into Friday. A
weak system will cross Friday night bringing chances for rain
and snow showers across the north. High pressure briefly returns
late Saturday into Sunday before another weak system crosses
Sunday night. Another area of high pressure builds in Monday and
Tuesday with the pattern turning more active towards the middle
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure drifts to the east into this evening. Winds will
remain light and variable but gradually become more from the SW
as the night goes on. Will see some cirrus drift overhead at
times, but shouldn't be enough to deter some radiational cooling
through the night.
HREF ceiling probabilities do hint at the arrival of a lower
deck after midnight into southern NH and far southern ME. This
could decrease the rate of cooling here, thus a bulk of
decreasing temps could take place later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front nears the forecast area during the day Friday.
Moisture has continued to decrease with this system, and showers
now look to avoid much of the interior and coast. Terrain in
western NH and ME will help to dry out the downslopes, further
decreasing shower coverage. QPF is even lighter for the
mountainous regions to the west.
Will still see some southern stream moisture move across
southern New England Friday night, and some light rain could
result in the southern half of the CWA. The center of this low
has pushed south in guidance, well south of the Cape Cod region.
While these northern peripheries are typically whittled away by
dry northern air, we'll still be seeing moisture associated with
the exiting cold front. Thus this precip shield may still bring
light showers to the southern forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: A low amplitude northern stream pattern will persist
through this weekended into early next week. The pattern will
become more amplified towards the middle of next week when some
southern stream energy merges with the northern stream resulting
in a broad trough over the central US. A weak front will be
pushing offshore Saturday morning with high pressure briefly
building in through Sunday morning. Another weak system crosses
late Sunday into Monday bringing mainly snow showers to the
mountains. High pressure returns late Monday into Tuesday.
Chances for widespread precipitation increase late Tuesday
through Wednesday as the trough over the central US migrates
eastward.
Impacts:
*No strong signal for significant weather impacts through the period.
Details: Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the wake
of a departing cold front. Post frontal winds will be tame with
gusts topping out around 20 mph. Highs will range from the 30s north
to 40s south. Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass in place will
allow for lows into the teens and 20s Saturday night. Brief high
pressure shifts south Sunday as the next short wave dives SE out of
Canada. This moisture starved system will bring some chances for
snow showers to the mountains Sunday night into Monday.
High pressure builds in late Monday through Tuesday for mostly fair
weather. High pressure shifts south Tuesday night as broad troughing
translates east across the Ohio Valley. A warm air advection pattern
develops into Wednesday bringing increasing chances for
precipitation to the region. The antecedent airmass does not look
overly cold suggesting rain may be the dominant precipitation type
south of the mountains. The trough will be slow to move east and may
bring additional chances of precipitation to the region through the
holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR. SKC or high cirrus conditions through this
evening and midnight. Some guidance has been hinting at the
reinforcement of low level moisture in southern NH to form SCT
MVFR for southern NH terminals. Exactly how much of the sky this
covers is uncertain at this time, but it is expected to be
around 3000ft. Better moisture over the coastal waters may aid
in lower and thicker ceilings, and these may near coastal
terminals like PSM, PWM, and RKD later tonight and Friday
morning. A cold front will pass over the area Friday afternoon,
bringing some MVFR ceilings and maybe virga or light rain
showers. SHSN possible in the mountains and towards the US/CAN
border, as well as MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Long Term...Outside of occasional mountain clouds and snow showers at
KHIE, mainly VFR is expected across the area through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure drifts south and east tonight through
Friday morning. A cold front will pass over the waters Friday
afternoon, increasing gusts to around 20 kts. Can't rule out a
brief period of 25 kts as winds shift SW to W. Wind wave will be
slow to react, becoming 1 to 3 ft Friday night.
Long Term...Winds and seas will generally stay below SCA thresholds
through the period. A couple of cold fronts will cross the waters
with one Saturday morning and another Sunday night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Schroeter
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 201817
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
117 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region through early Friday. An
occluded front will cross Friday night then exit across the
Maritimes Saturday as low pressure tracks south of the region.
High pressure crosses the area on Sunday. Weak low pressure will
cross the region on Monday followed by high pressure building in
for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
*Cold tonight
*Light snow showers over the north and isolated rain showers
south Friday
High pressure currently centered over the area is expected to gradually
slide east tonight while clouds ahead of an approaching
occluded front move into the area. Below normal temperatures
tonight in the low 20s.
Dry conditions start out on Friday before precipitation ahead of
the occluded front begins to move into the area from the west
after noon. Precipitation overspreads much of northern and
central Maine by Friday evening. Expect mostly snow showers
north of the Katahdin region, scattered rain and snow showers
over the Central Highlands, and just a few isolated rain showers
in the Bangor and Downeast areas. Where exactly the rain/snow
line sets up will depend on how much warm air advection occurs
in the southerly flow ahead of the front. Overall, due to the
relatively marginal temperatures, SLRs are generally expected to
be below 10 to 1 which will limit snow totals to a wet half inch
or so at most with the highest totals farther north.
Precipitation clears out by Saturday morning as drier air works
its way in behind the front. Meanwhile, an offshore low will be
moving south of the coast bringing a few light rain showers
over the waters late Friday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Messages
-Breezy NW winds Saturday
Precipitation clears out on Saturday with breezy winds expected
as a pressure gradient develops in response to high pressure
building in behind the departing low. NW winds 10-15mph with
gusts 15-25mph at times. High temperatures top out in the low to
mid 30s north with low 40s for Bangor region to Downeast coast.
Expect some decoupling Sat night into Sunday AM to allow
temperatures to fall back into the teens north to around 20F.
Central Highlands to Downeast coast will fall back into the
20s. High pressure sticks around through Sunday with dry
weather, mostly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Messages
-Thanksgiving Week Starts Mainly Dry & Seasonable, Good for Travel!
-Pattern Turns Active Starting Midweek
Discussion...
The 500mb pattern is progressive through Monday with shortwaves
on Sunday night and Monday passing through the area. Sunday
night expect low to mid 20s for most but upper 20s along the
Downeast coast. Snow showers will develop overnight mainly
across the north thanks to the shortwave. The shortwave on
Monday will push east of the area and bring an end to precip
across the north. The southern zones from Bangor region to the
coast will likely remain completely dry Sun night into Monday
given how weak this system is going to be. Highs on Monday in
the mid to upper 30s north and low 40s Bangor region to the
coast.
Much of Tuesday continues to look dry as a 1030mb surface high
pressure builds over the area but the pattern is progressive and
the next system is on its heels. Start the day in the 20s with
afternoon highs in the 30s north and 40s south. In terms of
Thanksgiving Week travel we are looking at good days on Monday
and Tuesday
Looking ahead to mid-week, a new low lifting north from the
Great Lakes will have an occlusion extending southeast to
another low near Southern New England on Wednesday. This has the
potential to bring an accumulating snow Tuesday night into
Wednesday AM then changing to rain north. Then mainly rain
for the Downeast and Bangor region into Wednesday. Currently
models differ considerably on how cold this system will be and
timing of precipitation. This could lead to precipitation
extending into Thanksgiving Day but temperatures likely warm
enough to be plain rain.
Beyond after Thanksgiving...increasingly stronger signals in
the ensembles for below normal temperatures and increasingly
active pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL: VFR through early tonight then about a 30%
chance of MVFR ceilings approximately 6z to 15z. Conditions
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with light rain/snow showers Friday
afternoon and may improve to VFR/MVFR by Saturday morning. Winds
light and variable through tonight becoming S 5 to 10 kts
Friday and SW 5 to 10 kts Friday night.
BHB/BGR: VFR through Friday morning then MVFR and possibly
briefly IFR Friday afternoon through evening with a slight
chance of rain showers. Conditions improve to VFR late Friday
night. Winds light and variable through tonight becoming S 5 to
10 kts Friday and SW 5 to 10 kts Friday night.
SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR south, MVFR cigs north. NW winds 5-15kt
gusting 15-25kt.
Sun...VFR. W winds 5-15kt.
Mon...VFR. AM MVFR possible with -SHRA/-SHSN. W winds 5-10kt.
Tue...VFR becoming MVFR cigs late. -RA/SN develops late day. W
winds 5-10kt shifting S-SW late day.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through
Friday afternoon. Winds increase to marginal SCA conditions by
Friday evening. Winds decrease below SCA criteria late Friday
night.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will be below SCA conditions Saturday but
NW wind gusts late day into the overnight will approach 25-30kt
on the coastal waters. We will need to watch how close a system
is well south of the waters Monday on potential for wind gusts
to SCA criteria. Otherwise expecting sub-SCA conditions through
early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...SM
Short Term...JS
Long Term...JS
Aviation...SM/JS
Marine...SM/JS
