me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 232206
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
606 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the region on Wednesday bringing rain
showers and perhaps a few flakes to the mountains. Dry high
pressure then moves across the region Thursday through Saturday.
A warming trend can be expected over the weekend with chance of
showers Saturday night or Sunday. Warmer weather expected early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM Update...Gusty winds continue for a couple more hours then
diminish after sunset. Added a few more clouds to the forecast
for later on this evening as cirrus continues to advance from
the west. Otherwise, a quiet weather evening.
Previously...
Clear skies continue into the evening behind an excellent
spring day. Onshore winds have driven some moisture into the
coastal communities mainly north of Portland, but not very far
inland. Strong, deep mixing across the interior and mountains
did a really good job at washing out any low level moisture that
tried to impede. This resulted in widespread RH values in the
teens and 20s for much of NH (largely unaffected by coastal
moisture) and 20s and 30s for southern Maine. These values will
rebound tonight as surface inversion develops and moisture
advects from the west.
Clouds increase after midnight with lows falling to the mid 30s
to around 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure traveling amid a passing cold front will
bring showers to the area Wednesday morning. These are expected
to be most concentrated towards the mountains and US/CAN border,
but there will be showers across much of the area through Wed
morning. QPF is generally light, with little amplification of
the low. Much of the steady precip exits by the afternoon, with
perhaps some flakes falling briefly for the mountains and far
interior locations.
Gusts pick up behind the front, potentially exceeding 30 mph at
times before deeper mixing dwindles in the evening. Don't expect
the surface to entirely decouple, and overnight lows will mainly
be a reflection of cold air advection. This dips most locations
well below normal...into the mid 20s, with some teens possible
in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB pattern across NOAM remains moderate amplified and blocky
through the weekend at least, but after the upcoming surge of
cold air through the mid-late week, see signs of the coldest
receding into the Arctic, and a warming tend this weekend into
early next week. Honest the Euro tends to hold the central ridge
of an omega block over the E CONUS from this weekend into next
weekend. There is some potential for the trough on the W of the
block to shift far enough to produce some showers later in the
weekend.
However for Thu-Fri, we should see sf high pressure settle over
New England, with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Highs Thu
will still be cool, generally around 50 in the mtns and in the
mid to upper 50s in the S, but they should start to warm up a
bit on Friday, reaching into the mid to upper 50s across much of
the CWA and lower 60s in srn NH.
WAA from that upper lvl low to our W starts to move in on
Saturday, and will at least see an increase in clouds, and
perhaps some showers by Sat night. Highs will mostly be in the
^0s on Sat. Sunday could see more SHRA but warm front should
move through and allow highs to be a few degrees warmer still,
although with a fair amount of clouds. Expect Monday to be
warmer still, with at least partly sunny skies, but also the
threat of showers as we spend some time in the warm sector.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight, with sct MVFR ceilings working in
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Brief IFR cannot be ruled out.
A cold front passes with SHRA, and potentially some light SN
for northern NH and western ME terminals. Winds shift quickly NW
Wed afternoon, becoming gusty around 30 kt. Improvement to VFR
is expected by the evening, but some MVFR may hold on towards
the US/CAN border before midnight.
Long Term...VFR is expected Thu-Sat, with dry air in place. Even
valley fog will struggle to form give that we are pre-green up,
along with the dry air mass. The next threat of flight
restrictions looks to be Sat night into Sunday as warm front
moves through with some showers possible
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds remain SSE tonight, becoming S and then NW
Wednesday afternoon as a cold front passes over the waters.
Winds may approach gale force Wednesday night behind the front,
warranting at least SCA conditions overnight. Wave heights also
respond, 4 to 6 ft.
Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria Thu into Sat,
with SCA winds possible Sat night into Sunday as a warm front
crosses the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Cempa
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 240155
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
955 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach tonight, cross the area Wednesday,
then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure will
build across the region Friday into Saturday. High pressure
should exit by Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
955 pm update...
Dry airmass per 00z raob out of CAR. Latest hires models are
slowing timing of rain by about an hour or two, thus have made
adjustments to pops and sky cover with this update though very
minimal impact on temp forecast for the overnight hours.
Prev discussion blo...
The upper level low pressure will advance a surface boundary
towards the region tonight. RH models show the low cloud deck
moving into the NW by this evening and pushing SE throughout the
night. High res models and extended QPF models show the rain
moving into the North Woods after midnight. However with the
very dry airmass ahead of the system, the rain will fight with
this airmass to make it to the ground. Decided to keep likely
rain chance out of the forecast until Wednesday morning when
dewpoints increase with the clouds.
By Wednesday, the surface low pressure will move through the
area throughout the day. By the morning, the rain will start to
increase with center of the low swinging through. The 925mb
model temps show a very tight temp gradient along the boundary
of the system. By the early afternoon, the cold airmass will
move into the North Woods, then move quickly towards the SE.
Since the system is expected to intensify, it will also pick up
speed, which will create a thin rain/snow transition line as it
moves through the Central Highlands by the evening. In addition,
NW winds will increase with the transition to snow making for a
breezy afternoon and evening. Caution will be needed Wednesday
evening with the cold temps, wet snow, and clean untreated
roadways.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Precipitation will end early Wednesday evening from west to east
as the system quickly moves off to the east. There is still
some uncertainty on when exactly the precip ends, but general
consensus is it ending around mid-evening for all. The
precipitation will be ending as snow most places thanks to very
strong cold advection, except as a light mix for Downeast.
Accumulations generally 2 inches or less are expected for the
storm in the north, with amounts over an inch generally being
north of Houlton. Winds will also be gusty from the northwest to
around 30 mph Wednesday night. The biggest concern is roads
potentially freezing as temperatures quickly fall easily below
freezing Wednesday night. The biggest threat of this is in the
north. Temperatures in the north will be down to the mid to
upper 20s by about midnight, and to the low 20s by dawn
Thursday. Temperatures will also be falling below freezing
Downeast and can't totally rule out icy roads there as well, but
the gap between the precipitation ending and temperatures
falling below freezing is a bit larger there which could give
roads a chance to dry out.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and breezy with NW winds still gusting
20-30 mph. Airmass moderates a bit, with highs in the low to
mid 40s north and around 50 Downeast. Very dry airmass with
dewpoints down to the low teens.
High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday. Still looks
cold Thursday night thanks to good radiational cooling with
lighter winds. Then warming to the 50s Friday, still with mostly
sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warming trend continues into Saturday with weak ridging aloft
building into the region. Highs Saturday will likely top 60 for
most areas. Continued dry with a good amount of sun Saturday.
Model agreement then goes downhill a bit regarding whether the
ridging can hold on into Monday or begin to break down by late
Sunday. Went with chance of rain Sunday/Monday, but there is
also a realistic possibility that we could stay dry into Monday.
More confidence in ridging aloft breaking down into more
unsettled zonal flow or perhaps weak troughiness toward
Tuesday/Wednesday, with increased rain chances. Airmass is
looking easily too warm for any snow in the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours.
KFVE will drop to MVFR cigs after 13z and quickly switch to IFR
snow by 16z. KCAR and KPQI will see MVFR conditions around 15z
with light rain before switching over to snow 20z.
Further south MVFR conditions hole off until closer to 17z Wed
before light rain moves in. Expect rain continues through end of
TAF period.
Northern Aroostook terminals will see another night of LLWS at
FL020 from 21040kt. KFVE likely to see wind shear diminish
around 07z with KCAR and KPQI experiencing wind shear from
03-09z.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday Night...Possible IFR early over far Eastern Maine to
begin with snow and low ceilings, but all areas should improve
to VFR by 3-6z, and remain VFR through the rest of the night. NW
wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Thursday...VFR. NW wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Thursday Night to Saturday...VFR. Generally W wind 5-10 kts.
Sunday...VFR with potential of MVFR, but low confidence. S wind
10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and sea should remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Wednesday. Winds and seas will start to approach SCA
by the late evening Wednesday.
SHORT TERM: Small craft winds/seas very likely Wednesday night,
with small possibility of gales from the NW. Conditions falling
below small craft by midday Thursday, and remaining below small
craft through Saturday. Possibility of small crafts toward
Sunday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster/LaFlash
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash/Foisy
Marine...Buster/LaFlash/Foisy
