me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 181813
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
113 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Winds continue to diminish this afternoon and tonight, while
mountain snow showers gradually come to and end by this
evening. There will be some steady improvement in daytime
temperatures through the week as high pressure builds into the
region, but the pattern will also lead to ideal conditions for
overnight temperatures to get quite cold. Wednesday night in
particular could be very chilly across the region. Some single
digits are not out of the question in the northern valleys. The
next chance for widespread precipitation will arrive on Friday,
with mainly dry conditions this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Winds and mountain snow showers continue to decrease through
the day and into this evening.
* Chilly temperatures are expected tonight with widespread lows
mainly in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Forecast Details: Northwest flow aloft persists this afternoon
which should continue to bring plenty of clouds to the mountains
and north country with clearing skies to the south. A few
lingering snow showers will also remain possible over the higher
terrain in Coos county in NH and northern portions of Oxford,
Franklin, and Somerset counties in ME. However, this activity
should continue to diminish as heights rise through the near and
short term and the flow gradually deamplifies.
With the diminishing winds and clearing skies, we will likely
see some decent radiational cooling south of the mountains
tonight. Lows will generally range from the upper teens north,
to the low to mid 20s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
* The coldest night of the forecast period is on tap for
Wednesday night with lows forecast to mainly range from the
low to mid teens north, to the low to mid 20s south.
Forecast Details: The flow continues to deamplify through the
day on Wednesday as we transition to almost zonal flow aloft by
Wednesday night. We finally may start to see some clearing in
and around the mountains as surface high pressure starts to
nudge closer. In short, this pattern should lead to a pleasant
but cool Wednesday that will feature plenty of sunshine and
calm winds. Temperatures will only be a touch warmer than today
but the lack of wind should make it feel a bit warmer. Highs
are forecast to range from upper 20s to 30s north, to the low to
mid 40s elsewhere.
The coldest night of the forecast period then comes Wednesday
night with plenty of clear skies and light winds. Lows will
mainly range from the low to mid teens north, to the low to mid
20s south. A few single digit readings are not out of the
question across some of the northern valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Quick, low moisture system into Friday afternoon and evening
will bring rain showers to the area, with a brief wintry mix
towards the mountains. Accumulating wintry precip, while
light, looks mostly elevation based.
Details: High pressure overhead Thursday will see cool
temperature continue, but more clouds are expected compared to
Wednesday. Winds remain light overnight as temps dip into the
mid 20s. This high will pull east as the next weather system
approaches from the west.
Low pressure over Hudson Bay will swing an occluded front into
the Northern Great Lakes with potential triple point low moving
into NY state Fri morning. Nearing warm front will bring temp
increase for the day overall, but only into the mid to upper
40s, with temps around 50 for the coast. Focus for the system
will be a period of precipitation, most of which may be showery
for bulk of the coast and interior. The mountains are expected
to see the greatest QPF, but NBM and AI GFS both depict
comparative amounts into the Kennebec Valley and Midcoast.
Deterministic models are the most bearish outside of the
mountains, likely emphasizing the lack of deeper moisture
available. For precip types, model profiles are warm, and don't
expect wintry precip outside of the mountains. Even here, the
afternoon arrival may limit how much is seen in the valleys vs.
higher elevations...especially as the pattern isn't too
favorable for CAD.
Precipitation will taper Friday night, ending by Sat morning.
Departing system will leave behind a breezy Saturday, but
otherwise little change to going conditions. Forecast supports a
dry weekend, with the NW surface flow continuing to bring in
lower than normal temps. While clouds are forecast to stick
around, this flow could lead to overnight lows in the upper
teens for portions of northern NH and far western ME Sat night.
Into early next week, pattern becomes a little more active, but
there remains little to no confidence in one particular system.
Broad cyclonic flow will sink into the James Bay region with
broad jet from the Midwest into Ohio Valley. This should be good
transport for embedded shortwaves to move along which is what
carries the confidence of a more active weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are mainly expected through
Wednesday night, but MVFR ceilings will likely hang on at HIE
through the rest of today and tonight. A few snow showers will
remain possible this afternoon across northern New Hampshire
and northwest Maine. HIE has a low chance of seeing one of these
showers through this afternoon.
Long Term...VFR expected Thursday, but clouds will be developing
overnight into Friday. The prospect of MVFR ceilings developing
Fri afternoon is increasing with SHRA across the area and
SHRASN in the mountains. IFR ceilings possible into the
overnight hours for the mountains. Trend towards VFR expected
into Saturday, continuing Sunday. Will see SE winds Friday turning
NW Saturday, with gusts around 15 kts. Despite surface
inversion, LLJ not strong enough to mention LLWS at this time
Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will continue to relax through the
day with SCA conditions subsiding by this evening. Winds and
seas then remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday night.
Long Term...With frontal system moving through the region Friday
and Friday night, will see a brief period of SCA conditions
(winds and waves) during this time. Otherwise, limited surface
features will keep winds and seas below SCA criteria. Will look
towards early next week for next potential marine hazards.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Hargrove
SHORT TERM...Hargrove
LONG TERM...Cornwell
AVIATION...Hargrove/Cornwell
MARINE...Hargrove/Cornwell
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 181830
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
130 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over Labrador through Wednesday, as
high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will cross
the region Thursday. An occluded front will cross the region
Friday night then exit across the Maritimes Saturday. High
pressure builds in on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*Key Messages:
-High pressure building in on Wednesday
-Below normal temperatures expected Wednesday night
West winds continue to gust this afternoon over all areas between
1024mb sfc high over the Delmarva and 980mb low over the Maritimes.
Winds should remain mixed thru the overnight hours, especially in
the north. Skies will begin to clear this evening over the north,
though may cloudy back up briefly as s/wv drops south out of James
Bay, as noted on water vapor imagery.
High pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday morning
resulting in mostly sunny skies area-wide. Max temps will climb back
into the mid-30s acrs the north and around 40 for Downeast again for
tomorrow.
High pressure looks to be centered over the northeast with ridge
axis extending into wrn CWA by daybreak. NBM temps give lows in the
mid-upr teens Thursday morning but with clear skies and decoupled
winds, may need to drop lower at some point. This will be dependent
on how much snow cover remains from Sunday night/s storm. Either
way, mins Thursday morning will range from 5 to 8 degrees below
seasonal norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Key Messages:
- Dry and seasonable weather Thursday
- A weak system Friday brings rain and snow to the north and
rain south
High pressure will become centered over the area on Thursday
leading to mostly sunny skies, calm winds, and seasonable
temperatures. High pressure begins to weaken and slide east late
Thursday through Thursday night. Behind it, a low pressure
system will be tracking well to our northwest. Along an occluded
front extending from the system a secondary low is expected to
develop and pass just north of Maine. Precipitation should begin
entering western Maine Friday around mid-day and then slowly
spread east. A mix of rain and snow is expected in northern
Maine with rain south of the Katahdin region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Key Messages:
- Rain and snow over northern Maine and rain south continues through
Friday night
- Gusty winds Saturday
- Next chance for precipitation Monday into Tuesday
Rain and snow over the north with rain further south continues
Friday night. Expect snow totals from this system to be minimal
and of little impact as low-level warm air advection will be
keeping temperatures relatively mild. There still exists some
uncertainty in the intensity of the system which could impact
how far south precipitation falls and where the rain/snow line
will be. A weaker system with less warm air advection will have
less precipitation but snow may fall further south. A stronger
system may produce more precipitation overall but rain may make
it farther north due to increased low-level warm air advection.
Precipitation clears out on Saturday with breezy winds expected
as a pressure gradient develops in response to high pressure
building in behind the departing low. High pressure sticks
around through Sunday with dry weather and seasonable
temperatures. The next chance for precipitation comes Monday
into Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west,
developing low pressure at the surface. There still exists
considerable timing differences but generally expect a weak
system that produces mostly snow in the north and rain towards
the south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for this evening and overnight for all terminals. Cannot
rule out brief MVFR cigs over Aroostook terminals late this
afternoon but extent is too low to include in TAFs. West winds
will gust to 20-25 kts before diminishing between 22-02z.
VFR expected Wednesday night with light W winds.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds.
Thursday night...VFR early, then possibly MVFR late. Light
south/southeast winds.
Friday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR late. Light rain/snow
northern terminals, light rain southern terminals. S winds 5 to
10 kts.
Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late.
Light rain/snow northern terminals, light rain southern
terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts becoming W late.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north early.
West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
Saturday night...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: West winds will gust to small craft levels thru this
evening before diminishing blo 25kts over all waters. Seas look to
drop below 5ft over the outer waters around midnight tonight. Seas
and winds will remain below SCA levels through the end of the
period.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through
Friday. Winds and seas build to just above small craft advisory
criteria by Friday night. Winds and seas decrease below SCA
criteria Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...21
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...21/SM
Marine...21/SM
