me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 151827
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
127 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Our next system will slice across Ontario and Quebec late
today and tonight bringing widespread precipitation, but for a
relatively brief period. To the north of the track some snow
accumulation is likely, along the track a wintry mix including
light freezing rain, and south of the track mostly rain. Once
precipitation moves out, winds become gusty out of the west.
There will also be more mountain snow showers on and off through
midweek. High pressure moves in for the second half of next
week before the next widespread chance of precipitation Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All is quiet for the moment...but wintry weather is on the way
tonight. Temps will be driven by two main factors - what if any
radiational cooling is possible before clouds move in and how
quickly can we wet bulb down as precip starts. Of the two
factors I think wet bulbing will be the primary driver. Current
wet bulb temps are in the mid 30s across southern NH and
interior western Maine...but with lack of moisture advection and
some gradual cooling with loss of daytime heating...those should
only tick downward into the evening. So I anticipate another
cold air dam forming in place as precip starts. In fact model
forecasts of frontogenesis aloft show decent forcing for ascent
sweeping across the forecast area this evening towards midnight.
Even near the coast across western Maine there may be a brief
hour where accumulating snow is possible before a changeover
occurs. Otherwise little change to the forecast...very light
icing expanded slightly based on cooler temps over the
interior...so a few zones were added to the winter weather
advisory. The real question will be whether the cold air dam can
hold or whether it erodes quickly. Models whittle it away fairly
fast...but I have played this game before and hedged with
blended 10th percentile NBM temps in the favored CAD areas with
the latest NBM outside those zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Sun morning model indicates that the mid level dry slot will
be traversing the southern half of the forecast area. This will
bring a quick end to the steady precip...but a period of
drizzle may be possible before west winds kick in. Given the
complicated nature of the weather grids already I do not see the
utility in adding drizzle/freezing drizzle to mix at this
time...and prefer to let rain/freezing rain/snow handle the
messaging for now.
The upper trof will cross the region thru midday...and once that
occurs cold air advection will allow westerly winds to increase
and become gusty. Upslope snow showers will begin in earnest and
breezy winds likely continue all night over land.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Monday morning, the upper low should be centered near the Bay of
Fundy. Wrap around snow showers are likely to last through the day,
especially in the upslope regime in and around the mountains. While
the upper low will move off to the north Monday night into Tuesday,
mean troughing aloft will likely keep at least some showery activity
in the forecast over the mountains through at least Tuesday and
possibly into the evening. Below normal temperatures for this time
of year should keep most of this precipitation in the form of snow.
Forecast Froude numbers are greater than 1 in the afternoon on
Monday and Tuesday so some light snow/flurries/sprinkles may not be
out of the question outside of the mountains. Highs on Monday will
generally range from lower 20s to lower 30s across the north and the
mountains, to the mid 30s to lower 40s over the foothills, the
Interior, and down to coastal areas. Highs will be very similar
on Tuesday, but maybe just a touch warmer south and along the
coast.
The next wave will move through on Wednesday and it currently looks
fairly weak and mainly dry. While NBM precipitation chances are
currently low, we will likely continue to see at least some showery
activity in the mountains given the pattern. Temperatures will once
again nudge up just a little bit with highs potentially reaching
into the mid 40s along the coast.
Low amplitude ridging and high pressure moves across the region
on Thursday/Thursday night before we transition back into
southwest flow aloft on Friday. This means that the slow and
modest warmup will continue through the end of the work week
with highs on Friday mainly in the 30s north, to the 40s
elsewhere. A few lower 50s are possible over southern New
Hampshire and coastal areas. That being said, NBM temperature
spread becomes quite large Friday/Saturday indicating quite a
bit of uncertainty regarding the pattern evolution. The next
chance for widespread precipitation comes Friday into Saturday
with the approach of the next longwave trough. As of now, it
looks like most of the precipitation will be rain outside of the
mountains, but quite a bit can change this far out as
uncertainty about details remains high.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail south of the mtns today with
MVFR CIGs lingering in upslope flow on the north side.
Conditions go down quickly this evening as precip slices into
the area from the northwest. Widespread IFR CIGs are
anticipated...with at least a brief period of snow across the
Lakes Region of NH into most of western Maine. That period of
snow may only be about an hour near the coast...but may last
several hours at AUG. The coverage and duration of freezing rain
at the TAF sites is fairly low confidence...but most at risk
would be LEB/HIE to AUG. Otherwise rain should be the dominant
precip type. There may also be a brief period of LLWS across
the Seacoast including PSM. As precip ends Sun westerly winds
will increase...especially across southern NH where surface
gusts of 25 kt or more are possible Sun afternoon. By that time
TAF sites south of the mtns will be returning to VFR
conditions...with MVFR CIGs and occasional snow showers possible
at HIE.
Long Term...VFR conditions are likely on Monday south of the
mountains with MVFR CIGs likely lingering north of the mountains,
likely including HIE. These lower CIGs to the north could linger
into Tuesday. Winds will also be breezy Monday. Surface gusts in
excess of 25 kts are likely for all terminals. VFR conditions
should then generally prevail until the end of the work week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Offshore winds today will gradually turn
southeasterly tonight. SCA conditions will be possible overnight
as those southeast winds become gusty...but the strongest
winds will wait until wind direction flips again to westerly.
The strongest winds will first be possible for the coastal
waters south of Cape Elizabeth...but heading into Sun night gale
force gusts will become more likely for all the waters outside
of the bays. A gale warning has been issued for these
waters...with SCAs in the bays.
Long Term...West winds will remain gusty through the day on Monday
in cold air advection. Gale Warning continues through Monday
evening. The core of strongest winds will generally be along and
south of our forecast area, so northern portions of the warning are
a bit more uncertain and marginal. Beyond Monday, winds and seas
will gradually diminish through the rest of the week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Sunday for MEZ007>009-012-013-020-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Sunday for NHZ001>009.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for
ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to midnight EST Monday
night for ANZ151-153.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to midnight EST Monday night for
ANZ154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Hargrove
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 151818
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
118 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area this evening. Low pressure will
develop along the coast late tonight...track up into New Brunswick
on Sunday... and continue north through the Maritimes Sunday night
through Monday. The low will continue north across Labrador on
Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A corridor of high pressure across the area between the old upper
low centered over Labrador and a new low approaching from the Great
Lakes will bring a clear evening early tonight. The new low,
supported by a vigorous upper level shortwave cascading southeast
from Central Canada, will be located along the Southern Maine coast
by early Sunday morning. Rain Downeast and snow across the interior
will spread in from southwest to northeast early Sunday morning. Low
pressure will intensify and track northeast along our coast on
Sunday, continuing into Southern New Brunswick Sunday evening.
This looks like a moderate snowfall for the Katahdin region on
north. However, the biggest challenge remains how much snow will
fall near the New Bruswick border where downsloping and some warmer
air backing in from the east may limit amounts. Some of the forecast
models show the 1300 thickness line at 1000/850 nudging just west of
the border during the midday and afternoon Sunday. This may indicate
that enough warm air will flow in from the east to mix some rain in
with the snow limiting amounts. Another forecast issue will be how
quickly a dry intrusion aloft lifts north late Sunday afternoon
causing the precipitation to diminish, versus how quickly the
surface low can develop and continue wrapping moisture back into the
area cutting off the dry intrusion and allowing precipitation
to persist well into Sunday evening. Snow of varying intensity
across central and northern areas will likely continue through
Sunday night with the intensity depending how well the low can
organize to our east. Rain over the south may turn back to snow
or snow showers as colder air surges back in under the storms
circulation Sunday night. However, any precipitation across the
south would likely become light and intermittent overnight.
Main impacts will include slippery conditions, as snow will
likely melt from underneath resulting in a layer of slush on the
roads. Also, wet snow weighing on trees/powerlines may cause
some outages.
Strong low pressure will lift north across the Gulf of St. Lawrence
Sunday night with occasional snow continuing over northern and
central areas. A north to northwesterly wind will pick up
behind the low Sunday night which may cause some patchy blowing
snow in areas where the snow doesn't mix with rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Lingering snow showers through Monday
* Gusty winds remain Monday through Tuesday
Discussion:
As the occluded low pulls northeast and away from the forecast
area, moisture wrapping around the backside of the occlusion
will lead to scattered snow showers, particularly across the
north through the day on Monday. The northwest cold air
advection will pull moisture off the relatively warm St.
Lawrence river and could create some river-effect snow plumes
across the northern half of the state. Despite this synoptic
setup, moisture behind the low will still be lacking, and
additional snow amounts are likely to remain below one inch.
A tightened pressure gradient between the departing low pressure
system to the east and the approaching ridge of high pressure to
the west will lead to gusty winds through the beginning of the
week. A low level jet will develop around 900 mb at around 40
kts, and could lead to gusts mixing to the surface of around 25
to 30 mph. Winds could be stronger at higher elevations,
particularly in the central highlands where gusts could reach as
high as 35 to 40 mph. At the onset of these winds Monday
morning, heavy snow which may have clung to and weighed down
tree branches could cause branches to snap as winds pick up,
potentially leading to isolated power outages. As winds continue
to increase through the day on Monday and temperatures warm
above freezing, snow will melt and fall from elevated surfaces,
and this threat will quickly diminish.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Next storm approaches from the west on Friday; currently looks
to bring rain to the CWA
Discussion:
A narrow ridge of high pressure will return through mid-week,
and temperatures will rebound lifting into the mid 30s to lower
40s for highs, and lows in the 20s. The next system will be
another occluding low pressure on Friday. Though some showers
may begin late Thursday night, current model trends are for a
later start during the day on Friday or even holding off until
Friday night. With the diurnal swing being on either side of
freezing, timing of this system will have a large impact on what
precipitation type falls. Current guidance suggests that enough
warm air will advect in ahead of this system for most of the
precip to be rain, but if it crosses the area overnight and the
cold air advection on the back side is strong enough, there
could be a period of snowfall with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this evening will drop to MVFR over
the south after midnight tonight, then IFR early Sunday morning.
VFR conditions over the north tonight will drop to MVFR early
Sunday morning. Winds SW around 5 kt becoming SE.
IFR to LIFR conditions are expected Sunday with rain south and snow
north. Winds E around 10 becoming W over the south, and E
around 10 kt becoming NE over the north.
IFR conditions will persist over the north Sunday night with IFR
conditions possibly improving to MVFR over the south. Winds NW
increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Mon: MVFR at northern sites with scattered snow showers. Brief
IFR vis possible within these snow showers. MVFR scattering to
VFR at Downeast terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 25
to 30 kts.
Mon night - Tues: MVFR scattering to VFR at northern terminals,
VFR at Downeast terminals. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to
25 kts.
Wed - Thurs: VFR across all terminals. W winds decreasing to
around 5 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to SCA early Sunday morning then
gale Sunday night. Seas building to 4 ft tonight, 5 to 6 ft
Sunday then up to 9 ft Sunday night.
SHORT TERM: A gale watch remains in effect Monday through Monday
night for gusts to 35 kts on the coastal waters. The
intracoastal waters are likely to see gusts 25 to 30 kts and SCA
conditions through this time. Seas will begin to settle as gusts
gradually decrease into the day on Tuesday, beginning 6 to 9 ft
but falling below 5 ft by Tuesday night, as gusts drop below 25
kts across all waters at this time. Conditions should then remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the rest of the
work week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday
for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050-
051.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MB
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...MB/AES
Marine...MB/AES
