me discuss
Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 191020
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
620 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east today as a trough approaches from
the west. This trough will send a frontal system into New
England tonight and Monday, bringing a round of beneficial
rain. Troughing lingers over the Northeast through the week,
allowing for additional disturbances and chances of rain to
enter the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update:
Widespread upper level clouds have kept fog from forming so
decided to go ahead and take mention out of the forecast.
Otherwise no major changes were needed for this update other
than to blend in the latest observations of the sensible weather
fields to the going forecast.
Previously:
High pressure will gradually move east through the day
as an upper ridge axis amplifies overhead and also moves east.
Plenty of low level warm air advection will lead to the warmest
day of the seven day forecast period with highs mainly in the
lower 60s to lower 70s.
As the high slides east and a low moves closer, the pressure
gradient will start to tighten in the afternoon, leading to
increasing southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph or so in some
locations. Clouds will also be on the increase through the day
as the ridge axis moves east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A highly amplified trough approaches tonight as a low closes
off to our west before eventually nudging into New England on
Monday. This will mean increasing precipitation chances late
tonight and increasing southeasterly winds through the night
and Monday.
Some of the CAMs and forecast soundings suggest a period of
light rain and/or drizzle tonight before the bulk of the
precipitation moves into western New Hampshire around 12z to 15z
Monday morning. As of now it appears that we will have one or
two fast moving bands of heavier showers along and behind a cold
front progged to scoot across the forecast area through the day
on Monday. RAP soundings even suggest that we could end up
seeing a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across southern New
Hampshire and portions of southwest/coastal Maine. Thus, a
rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question.
Regarding rainfall amounts, the NBM continues to suggest high
probabilities of widespread totals greater than a half inch with
medium to high probabilities of widespread totals great than an
inch. These probabilities are currently maximized over portions
of central and northern New Hampshire as well as the Maine
foothills. A few areas here could locally see totals of 2 inches
or greater as the front moves through. That being said, this
system looks to be fairly progressive so residence time of the
heavier rain may be relatively brief.
Temperatures tonight will be quite mild as the approaching
trough continues to pump in the relatively warm/moist air. Lows
will range generally from the mid 40s to lower 50s, but a few
mid 50s are possible along the coast. Highs on Monday will be
cooler with the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, mainly
ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early morning long term forecast update...The 01z NBM has been
incorporated into the latest long term forecast and reveals little
change from the going forecast.
The latest deterministics and ensembles are in good agreement with a
strong upper level low passing over the CWA Monday night.
The main thrust of forcing for ascent will me moving offshore so any
heavy rainfall will be moving out early Monday evening.
However, unsettled and showery weather, especially in the mountains
should remain through early Tuesday. Unsettled weather is expected
to continue Wednesday as the next low and associated SFC front moves
through New England with more showers. Clouds and showers and likely
continue, especially in the mountains through late week as stacked
low pressure remains nearby.
Previously...
Another upper low moves across the Great Lakes Wednesday with a lead
shortwave bringing the next round of potential widespread rain. This
again looks pretty progressive and moisture and QPF aren't as robust
with the system, but some areas could pick up an addition 0.50"+ of
rain.
Thursday through Saturday will be mostly dry with not much in the
way of measurable precip in the ensembles, but we'll still hold onto
broad cyclonic flow with an upper low to our north through at least
Thursday. So it's possible a few showers develop during the daytime
hours, but most will probably be in the mountains with upslope flow.
Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s the first half of the week,
cooling back into the 50s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are mainly expected today through at
least mid evening. Widespread high clouds should keep fog
formation minimal this morning, but a brief dip in visibility
is not out of the question at LEB. An approaching low/cold
front will also lead to some lower clouds moving into New
Hampshire by this evening, likely leading to some MVFR ceilings.
Monday will see widespread precipitation chances with the
chance of IFR to MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings.
Long Term...MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions are expected in the
mountains on Tuesday in showers. Another system likely brings
restrictions on Wednesday with improvement going into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...As a low approaches, increasing southeasterly
winds and building seas will lead to SCA conditions late this
evening and through the overnight hours.
Long Term...Conditions improve Tuesday with winds turning
southwesterly behind low pressure, but more SCA conditions will be
possible Wednesday as another low and front cross the region. These
may last through Thursday, but conditions look to improve Friday or
Saturday as high pressure builds toward the region.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ150>153.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Hargrove
SHORT TERM...Hargrove
LONG TERM...Combs/Ekster
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 191116
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
234 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves just east of the area today. Low pressure
will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another low
will cross the region Wednesday, lifting to the north Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early This Morning...
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft is centered over the
area. Temperatures are seasonably cool with mainly 30s and
patchy frost. Mid/high level clouds are increasing from west to
east, while some low clouds over New Brunswick are moving in
from east to west and could reach the Frenchville to Houlton
area by dawn. Patchy fog is also present over mainly Aroostook
County. Winds are light.
Today...
Any early morning low clouds/fog should quickly dissipate,
leaving a fairly quiet day. Surface high pressure moves to the
east of us, with a developing south/southeast breeze 5-10 mph.
Skies will generally be partly cloudy with some mid/high level
clouds. Fairly mild with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tonight...
Next system begins to approach from the west, and low-level
onshore flow increases. Should see some low clouds developing
through the night, with skies mostly cloudy/cloudy by dawn with
patchy fog as well. Milder with lows in the 40s. Temperatures
should reach minimums by about midnight, with readings then
leveling off.
Monday...
A cutoff vertically stacked low pressure system approaches from
the west and sends an occluded front out ahead of it. Rain with
the front should reach the western edge of the forecast area
(Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor) somewhere between 2pm and
8pm. There is still a bit of uncertainty in starting time. Eastern
portions of the area closer to the New Brunswick should stay
dry through the day. Mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low
60s. Breezy from the southeast 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30
mph, mainly closer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday night, an occluded front ahead of a vertically stacked
low will be moving through the area bringing rain across the
region. Models are generally in good agreement with the overall
evolution of the system but individual ensemble members are
still expressing some uncertainty over the exact timing of the
front and rainfall amounts. Generally, most solutions show rainfall
amounts from this first event at or below 1 inch with the greatest
amounts expected along the coast where drought relief is most
needed. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast on Tuesday
but expect a few showers to stick around especially in the far north
and east as the low slows and weakens.
Patchy fog is possible across the region Monday night and
Tuesday night as a result of E/SE flow bringing in moisture from
over the waters. The greatest chance for fog is Tuesday night
when winds are more southerly and weaker. This is a more
favorable wind direction for advection fog and lower winds will
prevent excessive mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday another vertically stacked low pressure system will
be positioned just north of the Great Lakes region. A shortwave
rounding the base of the upper trough will approach the region
and result in enough lift for another round of rain through the
area. Some model solutions have also been showing some elevated
instability in southern and eastern areas. Due to the late
season nature of this event the probability of getting some
thunderstorms is low but decided there was enough confidence to
include it in the south but left it out in the north.
The main band of rain should exit the region mostly by Thursday
morning but expect some lingering showers as the upper low moves
over our area. Expecting generally unsettled, showery weather
through Friday with near normal temperatures. It should be warm
enough for mainly rain everywhere but some snow showers in the
higher elevations cannot be ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Early This Morning and Today...For BGR/BHB, high confidence in
VFR today, with light winds early increasing to S about 8 kts by
afternoon. Main challenge is with conditions early this morning
for northern TAF sites FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL. As of 6z, there is
patchy IFR/LIFR fog which is generally avoiding the TAF sites,
but that could change at any time. Toward 8-10z, a low stratus
deck appears to move in from the east and should lower
conditions to MVFR (70 percent probability) and possibly IFR (30
percent probability). Went for MVFR for FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL, but
possibility exists of lower conditions through 13z. After 13z,
FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL should be VFR today with SE wind 5-10 kts.
Tonight...VFR early, then mostly IFR Downeast and MVFR/IFR north
after about 4-7z. SE wind 5-10 kts.
Monday...Widely variable conditions. Generally, for northern TAF
sites FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL, starting out MVFR/IFR then becoming VFR
by midday. Downeast (BGR/BHB), mostly IFR but with possible MVFR
at times. Rain developing after 17z. SE wind 10-15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts, breeziest BHB/BGR.
SHORT TERM:
Monday night...IFR with LIFR also possible in rain and low
clouds. Winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts out of the SE
for southern terminals and out of the east for northern
terminals.
Tuesday...Southern terminals may see an improvement to MVFR
while northern terminals are more likely to stay IFR in rain
showers. Winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts out of the SE
for northern terminals and out of the S for southern terminals.
Tuesday night...MVFR with possible rain showers. S/SE winds
around 5 kts.
Wednesday...Conditions worsen to IFR first at southern
terminals then at northern terminals. S/SE winds 10 to 15 kts.
Wednesday night/Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers. S/SW
winds 5 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Issued a small craft advisory beginning late Monday
morning, with both SE winds and seas reaching criteria. Can't
rule out gale conditions, mainly off the Hancock County coast,
but probably too low (30-40 percent) to go with anything other
than small craft.
SHORT TERM: Seas remain right around small craft advisory
criteria at 4 to 6 ft through Tuesday night with winds below SCA
criteria until Wednesday where gusts will be approaching 25 kts.
Winds below SCA criteria Wednesday night into Thursday but seas
will remain above criteria.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TF
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...TF/SM
Marine...TF/SM
FXUS61 KCAR 191117
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
717 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves just east of the area today. Low pressure
will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another low
will cross the region Wednesday, lifting to the north Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early This Morning...
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft is centered over the
area. Temperatures are seasonably cool with mainly 30s and
patchy frost. Mid/high level clouds are increasing from west to
east, while some low clouds over New Brunswick are moving in
from east to west and could reach the Frenchville to Houlton
area by dawn. Patchy fog is also present over mainly Aroostook
County. Winds are light.
Today...
Any early morning low clouds/fog should quickly dissipate,
leaving a fairly quiet day. Surface high pressure moves to the
east of us, with a developing south/southeast breeze 5-10 mph.
Skies will generally be partly cloudy with some mid/high level
clouds. Fairly mild with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tonight...
Next system begins to approach from the west, and low-level
onshore flow increases. Should see some low clouds developing
through the night, with skies mostly cloudy/cloudy by dawn with
patchy fog as well. Milder with lows in the 40s. Temperatures
should reach minimums by about midnight, with readings then
leveling off.
Monday...
A cutoff vertically stacked low pressure system approaches from
the west and sends an occluded front out ahead of it. Rain with
the front should reach the western edge of the forecast area
(Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor) somewhere between 2pm and
8pm. There is still a bit of uncertainty in starting time. Eastern
portions of the area closer to the New Brunswick should stay
dry through the day. Mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low
60s. Breezy from the southeast 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30
mph, mainly closer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday night, an occluded front ahead of a vertically stacked
low will be moving through the area bringing rain across the
region. Models are generally in good agreement with the overall
evolution of the system but individual ensemble members are
still expressing some uncertainty over the exact timing of the
front and rainfall amounts. Generally, most solutions show rainfall
amounts from this first event at or below 1 inch with the greatest
amounts expected along the coast where drought relief is most
needed. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast on Tuesday
but expect a few showers to stick around especially in the far north
and east as the low slows and weakens.
Patchy fog is possible across the region Monday night and
Tuesday night as a result of E/SE flow bringing in moisture from
over the waters. The greatest chance for fog is Tuesday night
when winds are more southerly and weaker. This is a more
favorable wind direction for advection fog and lower winds will
prevent excessive mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday another vertically stacked low pressure system will
be positioned just north of the Great Lakes region. A shortwave
rounding the base of the upper trough will approach the region
and result in enough lift for another round of rain through the
area. Some model solutions have also been showing some elevated
instability in southern and eastern areas. Due to the late
season nature of this event the probability of getting some
thunderstorms is low but decided there was enough confidence to
include it in the south but left it out in the north.
The main band of rain should exit the region mostly by Thursday
morning but expect some lingering showers as the upper low moves
over our area. Expecting generally unsettled, showery weather
through Friday with near normal temperatures. It should be warm
enough for mainly rain everywhere but some snow showers in the
higher elevations cannot be ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Early This Morning and Today...For BGR/BHB, high confidence in
VFR today, with light winds early increasing to S about 8 kts by
afternoon. Patchy LIFR near FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL until 13z. After
13z, FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL should be VFR today with SE wind 5-10 kts.
Tonight...VFR early, then mostly IFR Downeast and MVFR/IFR north
after about 4-7z. SE wind 5-10 kts.
Monday...Widely variable conditions. Generally, for northern TAF
sites FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL, starting out MVFR/IFR then becoming VFR
by midday. Downeast (BGR/BHB), mostly IFR but with possible MVFR
at times. Rain developing after 17z. SE wind 10-15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts, breeziest BHB/BGR.
SHORT TERM:
Monday night...IFR with LIFR also possible in rain and low
clouds. Winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts out of the SE
for southern terminals and out of the east for northern
terminals.
Tuesday...Southern terminals may see an improvement to MVFR
while northern terminals are more likely to stay IFR in rain
showers. Winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts out of the SE
for northern terminals and out of the S for southern terminals.
Tuesday night...MVFR with possible rain showers. S/SE winds
around 5 kts.
Wednesday...Conditions worsen to IFR first at southern
terminals then at northern terminals. S/SE winds 10 to 15 kts.
Wednesday night/Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers. S/SW
winds 5 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Issued a small craft advisory beginning late Monday
morning, with both SE winds and seas reaching criteria. Can't
rule out gale conditions, mainly off the Hancock County coast,
but probably too low (30-40 percent) to go with anything other
than small craft.
SHORT TERM: Seas remain right around small craft advisory
criteria at 4 to 6 ft through Tuesday night with winds below SCA
criteria until Wednesday where gusts will be approaching 25 kts.
Winds below SCA criteria Wednesday night into Thursday but seas
will remain above criteria.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TF
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...TF/SM
Marine...TF/SM
