Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 240008
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
808 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level low will bring a period of below
normal temperatures this weekend along with partly sunny skies. It
will remain mostly dry outside of the mountains, but a few showers
and sprinkles can't be ruled out. Cool weather continues into next
week, but remains mostly dry through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM Update:
Overall, a fairly quiet evening continues across the region. A
few showers will continue to linger over the next couple of
hours, mainly over the higher terrain. Did tweak PoPs over the
next couple hours based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise,
just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.
Previously:
A broad upper level over the Great Lakes Region and Northeast will
be the dominate weather pattern over the next few days. Cold
temperatures aloft continue to advect into the area leading to
daytime instability clouds and showers. In addition a weak
shortwave trough over northern New York will rotate through
Northern NH by this evening, which will enhance instability and
shower coverage over the mountains. Snow levels will continue to
drop during the overnight hours down to about 4000ft. Fog
coverage will be difficult tonight with cloud cover mitigating
some development. Do still think valley fog along rivers outside
of the mountains is possible and close to lake sources as lakes
continue to radiate out with cool temperatures in the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
* Below normal temperatures and cool
* Winter conditions return to the high elevations, especially
above 4000ft
Broad upper level trough remains in place through the period. A
500mb vort max will pivot through the area during the afternoon
and evening hours. This feature will be the focus for more
scattered rain shower activity that could possibly reach the
coast with some showers and overcast skies. Feature will also be
associated with the trough axis itself with NW flow aloft
becoming established behind the feature. This will lead to CAA
Friday night with snow levels in the mountains dropping below
3000ft for the weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable with
highs mostly in the 50s with westerly flow across the area.
Overall rainfall amounts will remain light, mostly in the
.05-.1" range. It will be cold and damp Friday night with lows
dropping down to freezing for interior areas and in the 30s
across the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message: Near to slightly below normal temps thru the extended.
Little chance of appreciable rainfall until late next week with
potential coastal storm.
Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated. Winter-like
conditions will exist above treeline.
Forecast Details: Little change to model guidance today...with temps
continuing to be cool relative to recent weather but very near
normal for this time of year. Expect lots of 50s during the day
south of the mtns...and depending on cloud cover could stay in the
40s in the mtns. Overnight widespread 20s and 30s for most
nights...especially as we head towards the weekend with high
pressure settling overhead. As the timing of the surface ridge axis
becomes more apparent...overnight temps may needed to be adjusted
cooler in the favored cold spots.
Beyond the early part of the week model guidance continues to be all
over the place regarding the evolution of upper trof and the passage
of Melissa out to sea. There is certainly the potential to entrain
tropical moisture and get some much needed rainfall...but equally
likely that things remain out to sea. There are also significant
timing differences. Unfortunately at this time there are four
clusters of ensemble members...wet...dry...faster...slower...and
all are nearly equally represented. NBM guidance currently has
40 to 50 PoP for most of the area as we approach the end of next
week. A little higher than climatology seems like a fair
representation for our chances of rain at this time...so I opted
for no change to that forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Cloud cover will hang on overnight across much of
the higher terrain and northern valleys, potentially leading to
some MVFR ceilings over HIE. We could see a little bit of
patchy valley fog as well which may bring visibility
restrictions to LEB and HIE. Cloud cover may keep fog from
becoming too widespread so will leave mention out at CON and MHT
for now, but will advertise some lower clouds developing
overnight here.
Long Term...VFR conditions expected to prevail for most of the
extended. High pressure will build into the region by Sat...this
will allow for clear skies and calm winds overnight. Radiational
cooling should allow for some patchy fog to form...even though we
are getting past peak valley fog season. Fog and resulting IFR
conditions would be most likely over southern NH and the lower
Kennebec River Valley.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas continue to relax this evening so went ahead
and let the SCA go on time. Upper level low slowly moves over
the region through tomorrow. Winds will mostly remain westerly
and below 10 mph, no visibility restrictions expected.
Long Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds
thru the extended. It will not be until early next week when
approaching ocean storms allow winds to increase and seas to build.
Depending on timing and track, SCA conditions could be possible by
late Mon.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dumont
NEAR TERM...Hargrove/Dumont
SHORT TERM...Dumont
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Hargrove/Legro
MARINE...Hargrove/Dumont/Hargrove
Office: CAR
FXUS61 KCAR 232327
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
727 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few afternoon showers are possible for the end of the week
and through the coming weekend...though most of the period will
remain dry. Temperatures will fall to around normal for the
second half of October through the weekend. A drying trend is
expected through the middle of next week before the pattern
looks to turn unsettled again as we reach the end of the month.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 pm update...
Sfc boundary moving thru central Quebec and dropping into
Upstate NY. Isolated showers occurring over northern Maine
tonight look to diminish late this evening.
Prev discussion blo...
Key Messages
* Afternoon showers both through this evening and again on
Friday...otherwise temperatures slowly cooling.
Early afternoon GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a large-scale
trough across the northeastern US and eastern Canada with the
trough axis still west of our longitude. Broad southwest flow
continues ahead of a secondary cold front / trough over the
eastern Great Lakes...which will push through the region
tonight. Showers have begun to develop over the past two hours
given modest forcing for ascent in the presence of deep moisture
and weak instability. After expanding through mid
afternoon...this shower activity will wane this evening with
winds shifting to the west overnight with west northwest flow
bringing cooler air into the region through Friday. The mid
level trough axis passes overhead by late Friday and Friday
Night with T5s falling to near -30C. While the best forcing
remains to our west until Friday evening...could see a few
isolated afternoon showers reaching the area from the
west...with any lingering evening activity anchored to the core
of the mid level low. Temperatures on Friday will be a step
lower from this afternoon...particularly across the north woods
where highs will only reach around 50. Towards the Downeast
coast...expect highs to again reach the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages
* Other than a few isolated afternoon showers...seasonable
temperatures and quiet weather are expected.
Broadly cyclonic northwest flow continues through this weekend
with minimal moisture to work with suggests a mostly dry and
seasonable period. However...fast moving shortwaves in the
trough aloft may provide sufficient forcing /depending on
timing/ to spawn a few afternoon showers primarily over the
interior. Expect a mix of sun and clouds otherwise...with high
temperatures in the 40s to around 50 from north to south and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages
* Quiet weather continues through at least early Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures.
* Weather will likely turn more active by the end of the week.
Sunday night into Monday will feature the final shortwave within
the H5 trough before the trough pushes east and allows mid level
ridging to arrive from Canada manifesting itself at the surface
as a sprawling area of high pressure that should push deep
moisture south of the region and allow for a dry and seasonable
period for Tuesday and Wednesday after a few isolated showers on
Monday.
Beyond this...there is modest deterministic/ensemble guidance
agreement of deepening troughing over the eastern United States
as a Rex Block /high over low/ pattern sets up over eastern
North America. The overall pattern has some rather complex
interactions between the mid level high centered north of New
England...and upstream as well as downstream troughing.
Therefore...while the overall trend for an unsettled end of the
forecast period is likely...the details are far less
certain...with significant run to run changes in the guidance.
The consensus trend of increasing PoPs by Wednesday night and
Thursday is warranted and will follow that with today/s
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for Downeast terminals next 24 hours. Aroostook
terminals likely to remain at VFR cigs, though cannot rule out
MVFR cigs AT FVE around 12z through the morning hours. CAR and
PQI should remain at low VFR cigs, but cannot rule out a brief
MVFR restriction at some point Friday morning.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday - Saturday night: VFR, with a chance for MVFR ceilings
in the far north. NW winds at 5kts.
Sunday - Sunday night: VFR, with a chance for MVFR ceilings and
rain showers in the far north and southern terminals. Winds
from the NW, shifting to the N overnight, at 5-10 kts.
Monday - Monday night: VFR, with a chance of MVFR rain showers
at southern terminals. Winds from the N, shifting to the NE
overnight, at 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and waves diminish through this evening with
SCAs coming to an end. Beyond this...winds/waves remain below
small craft levels through Friday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds/waves remain below SCA levels through the
weekend as high pressure builds towards the waters...with this
high remaining north of the waters through early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
21/ARNOTT/GYX
