Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 020826
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore through early Monday as a weak cold
front crosses the Mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure will develop
off the Carolinas and move northeast out to sea Monday night. High
pressure will return Tuesday into Wednesday, then another cold front
will cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure
will briefly build over the area again Thursday into Friday before
another cold front approaches next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest satellite imagery as of 3 AM reveals cirrus
overspreading the area from the west. Areas along/east of I-95
have been able to radiate efficiently with the high overhead
and winds going calm allowing temps to fall into the mid 30s.
Cannot rule out some patchy frost over the next couple hours
before clouds rule in. Elsewhere, temps will be right around 40
to start the day.
Continued dry conditions are expected today with sfc high
pressure slowly drifting off to the east through the day. Winds
will be light out of the southeast at 5-10 mph. Interesting part
of the near term is an area of low pressure developing over the
SE US that will slowly move northeast. The main impact on
weather through the day will be increased clouds over the
southern portions of the FA. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies are
expected with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Tonight, the opposite will be true in terms of radiational
cooling. Western areas will be cloud free and radiate
efficiently while eastern areas are cloudy and warmer. Where it
is clear, low to mid 30s are expected. Elsewhere, mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks NE along the
Carolina coast, precipitation chances return for the I-95
corridor and into southern MD on Monday. Dry conditions and
increased cloud cover can be expected elsewhere.
A weak sfc cold front is progged to cross the FA Monday night.
This will bring winds out of the northwest on Tuesday as high
pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Flow is favorable to
bring down some dry air, so depending on how strong the winds
are Tuesday could be a Fire Wx day.
High temps will be in the 50s and 60s Monday and Tuesday with
overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The second half of the upcoming week will feature a rather rapid
succession of highs and lows thanks to wavy but progressive flow.
A moderately strong cold front will move through the region late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Despite this, there will not be much
moisture available, so it looks to be another dry autumnal frontal
passage. Depending on the strength of the front, and exactly when
the attendant wind field passes through (i.e. overnight vs. during
peak diurnal mixing), another round of gusty winds is possible.
Recent NBM runs/probs cap gusts at 15-25 mph due to spread not only
in timing of the front but also the strength of the wind associated
with it. However, if the front is toward the stronger side of the
spread -and- its wind field passes through during peak diurnal
mixing on Thursday, then 30-45 mph gusts would be possible.
A transient area of high pressure will pivot across the region
Thursday into Friday. Model spread increases substantially by next
weekend, but there is a broad consensus of another strong cold front
passage (perhaps with some extra moisture to work with).
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the day today as high pressure
slides eastward over the Mid-Atlantic. Winds become
southeasterly through the day today, but remain light at 10 kts
or less. Winds become light and variable tonight.
On Monday, low pressure to the south will yield increased cloud
cover and the return of precipitation chances mainly east of
I-95. Currently not expecting any restrictions with this
precipitation largely being east of all TAF terminals.
A cold front will pass Monday night bringing winds out of the
northwest for Tuesday with VFR conditions. Gusts of 15 to 20
kts are expected.
VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday night.
There will be a notable cold frontal passage late Wednesday into
Wednesday night with an outside chance of a shower across
northern terminals, however. This front will shift winds from
the south Wednesday to the northwest Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Daytime speeds of 10-15 kts are anticipated,
with gusts of 20-25 kts especially during the day on Thursday
when a few gusts over 30 kts are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds shift to southeasterly today before becoming light and
variable tonight into Monday. On Monday, winds shift to
westerly by evening and increase with gusts to 15 kts.
Behind a cold front, residual SCA caliber northwesterlies are
expected through Tuesday morning, possibly a bit longer.
Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday could
result in gusts of 15-20 knots. The cold front should come through
mainly dry Wednesday night, turning winds to the northwest. Speeds
will increase with gusts of 20-30 knots possible through Thursday,
diminishing Thursday night. There is an outside chance of gale
conditions Thursday if the front comes through a bit stronger.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CPB
