Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 062325
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
525 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the open Gulf waters
through this evening.
- Dry weather is expected until Tuesday. A quick moving shortwave
may bring some light rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday.
- Above normal temperatures are expected, especially next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Temperatures have warmed this afternoon close to 70 degrees in
some spots with most locations away from the cooler waters
climbing into the lower 70s for highs. Conditions remain on the
dry side with dry northwesterly upper level flow still over the
region as we remain under the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge
that continues to gradually slide our way from Texas. Upstream, we
will be watching a rather weak surface cold front move southward
toward the region overnight, which will help reduce the warming
trend we experienced over the last day or so briefly. This will
knock temperatures on Saturday down 5-10 degrees compared to today
with most locations climbing into the lower to middle 60s as
winds shift to a more northerly direction. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
After a somewhat cool night Saturday night (temps in the 40s
southshore and upper 30s north), temperatures will quickly begin
to rebound in the second half of the weekend. The aforementioned
upper ridge will continue to gradually slide east, which will
continue to help bump temperatures, especially at the start of
the new workweek. Going into early to midweek, eyes refocus
upstream over northern Mexico where an H5 shortwave looks to
amplify and then quickly move over Texas...then toward our region
by Tuesday or Wednesday. Among the globals, both the GFS and ECM
have this feature, but the ECM is a bit slower. Regardless, QPF
appears to be limited with most of the upper support remaining
north of our region. Carried lower-end POPs for Day 6 for now.
(Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
VFR conditions expected through the period, with little or no
cloud cover.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Winds have increased once again today with Small Craft Advisories in
effect for the open waters through the evening. Improving conditions
are expected to arrive later in the day Saturday, but cautionary
headlines may still be needed for portions of the Gulf waters. More
favorable conditions for marine operations anticipated for late this
weekend and into early next week. (Frye)
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 062316
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
516 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures will continue to moderate as a warming trend
takes place today through early next week.
- An onshore southerly flow will become established Sunday through
the remainder of the forecast period.
- A weak coastal disturbance Tuesday will offer scattered chances of
showers followed by dry conditions resuming Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
High pressure is centered along the coast of northeast Mexico this
afternoon and stretches across the northern gulf coast. This is
creating a light sw to westerly flow that is allowing temps to
moderate. A weak reinforcing front is over the mid-Mississippi
Valley and headed southbound.
Light winds and ample sunshine will continue through the
afternoon. Tonight into early Saturday the weak front will push
through the area and into the gulf. Highs will be several degrees
lower at most locations Saturday, however sunshine will still rule
the day.
The ridge behind the front will quickly build in and exit east
through Saturday. This will turn the front back onshore by
Saturday night starting a moistening trend that will last into
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Low pressure will move into the plains Monday while an upper
disturbance approaches from the Baja. Dewpoints will increase
early in the week with rain chances increasing Tuesday. Fog will
also become a concern as higher dewpoints advect across the cool
nearshore waters.
Scattered showers and possibly a few storms will move across the
region Tuesday with the upper disturbance and associated cold
front. The Pacific air mass behind the front is only expected to
briefly decrease dewpoints late in the week.
Temperatures will be mild through the period ~ slightly above
climo normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
With exception to areas of smoke and hazy conditions brought about
by several fires in the region, generally VFR to MVFR conditions
to prevail. Winds will become northerly, then northeasterly over
the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
A slight increase in the pressure gradient today will keep a scec
and sca hoisted through most of the afternoon today, however winds
will decrease tonight. Winds will be briefly offshore Saturday
before a longer duration onshore regime becomes established
Sunday through the remainder of the forecast period. Chances of
marine and inland fog will become more favorable by Monday with
the advection of warmer dewpoints over the seasonal minimums of
the nearshore water temperatures.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Afternoon RH minimums will remain in the 25 to 45% range in the
forecast through Saturday. A more established onshore environment
will offer greater humidity during the afternoon hereafter
beginning Sunday. Rain is not forecast for the area through Monday
evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 42 63 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 46 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 45 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 47 69 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...87
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 062337 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
537 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
- Expect warmer conditions across the region today, along with
continued quiet weather.
- Dry conditions will remain over the weekend, but a cool front
will bring some slightly cooler temperatures for the first half
of the weekend.
- Warmer conditions will return by Sunday and remain through most
of next week. However, rain chances will return to the region
on Tuesday & Wednesday, and again on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Surface high pressure has moved east of the region, but a dry
northwesterly flow has kept clear skies across the Four State
Region today. Despite a weak pre-frontal trough pushing through
the area, which has shifted winds to the northwest, much warmer
conditions can be expected this afternoon. High temperatures will
likely top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which could result
in record highs for a few locations. Late this evening into the
pre-dawn hours Saturday, a cool front will back door into the
region. It won't bring a very noticeable change to overnight
temperatures over the next couple of nights, but afternoon highs
on Saturday will be 15-20 degrees lower than today over most of
the region. It doesn't appear any precipitation will accompany
this front. In fact, upper ridging is expected to quickly settle
into the region behind the front for several days, resulting in
dry weather through the first portion of next week. The cooler
conditions will only stick around for a brief period, as the cool
front will return back northward as a warm front on Sunday.
Expect highs on Sunday, and again on Monday, to return back into
the low to mid 70s.
The warmer conditions will stick around for most of next week, but
the upper pattern will start to shift. Upper ridging will slide east
of the region late Monday evening ahead of a closed upper trough
shifting eastward out of Baja & Northern Mexico. Flow aloft will
become southwesterly, while southeasterly surface winds bring
increasing low-level moisture into the region. The closed trough
will weaken and open up as it rides the flow into our region on
Tuesday, but the dynamics should be good enough for widespread
rain to return across the region. There are still some timing
issues to resolve over the next several days with this system, but
it's possible that some of this precipitation could linger into
Wednesday. Dry conditions may return by Thursday, but another cool
front could bring additional welcomed rainfall by the end of the
work week. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
A dry cold front will be moving south across the area tonight,
resulting in surface wind shift from the NW to the NNE this
evening (north) through late tonight (south). Winds may be
briefly a little gusty when the front comes through, but generally
expect winds tonight to be in a range of 5 to 10 mph. Winds will
veer a little more tomorrow at the surface (mainly NE to ENE) with
speeds from 10 to 15 mph and potentially a few clouds in the 3 to
6 kft range in eastern zones in the morning. Otherwise, all VFR
conditions are anticipated through tomorrow afternoon with a few
high clouds (> 20 kft) starting to spread in from the west between
tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. /50/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 65 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 59 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 36 61 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 41 62 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 59 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 45 68 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 43 67 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...50
