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Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 290833
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
333 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A sfc high is moving over the area at the moment. This high will
move east today providing an onshore flow to begin bringing moisture
back to the area. Southerly winds will slowly increase over the next
few days, so eventhough temps will warm into the 80s, it will still
feel quite comfortable as these winds will ventilate the column.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Not a lot of difference in conditions Sunday through Monday other
than a degree or two for highs and lows and some clouds increasing.
Fog does not look to be a big issue as we trasition from dry to more
moist conditions as any low cloud cover should come in as a strat
deck by Sunday and/or Monday morning. The next system to move
through the area looks to do so Tuesday as a cold front. This front
should have sh/ts along with it, but there looks to be a feature
ahead of the front that could rob some of the deeper moisture from
the southern end of the front. And the front looks progressive, so
things are looking up for it to move through at a good pace and not
hang around. But don't get used to this type of pattern because this
time of year, fronts begin to slow and some even stall along the
gulf coast. We will have to see how this one behaves as we get
closer to its time to move through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Northerly winds will continue to ease this morning and gradually
move to easterly and SE by this afternoon. Winds will rise
somewhat once in a SE direction but should remain around 15kt
until the next frontal system affects the area late Tuesday.
Indications are that this front will move through at a good pace
bringing northerly winds around 25kt for Tuesday night through Wed
night. High pressure should settle over the northern gulf after
the front moves through which will bring winds and seas back to
lower levels by the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  51  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  78  56  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  74  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  59  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  71  58  75  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  74  53  77  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE



Office: LCH FXUS64 KLCH 290902 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 402 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Wx map shows a 1023 mb surface high over MS/AL with weak ridging continuing over the area. Winds are calm at most inland locations except along the immediate coast where light southerly winds have returned. Temperatures in the lower to mid 40s continue north of I-10, upper 40s to lower 50s further south. Some patchy fog noted across the area, but not expected to become dense or widespread. An exiting mid to upper level trough over the Eastern half of the country with a deepening mid to upper level trough over the Western U.S will keep a mainly zonal flow aloft over our region through the remainder of Easter Weekend. With no significant upper level perturbations or deep layer moisture to work with, no rainfall is expected through Sunday night. For today, expect a full return of southerly winds with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s. For tonight, expect lows in the lower 50s across Central Louisiana to lower 60s across Southeast Texas. Expect clouds to increase a bit Saturday and warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday night, lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s. Easter Sunday will see mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Due to the increasing pressure gradient between the surface high to the east and developing surface low over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, expect stronger southerly winds around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts by afternoon. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Global model guidance is in quite good agreement this morning regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern across the southern CONUS for next week. Area will start off the week in an already well established and strengthening moisture/warm air advection regime between deep layer ridging over the ERN Gulf and an approaching positively tilted upper trof stretching from the northern Plains to the Desert SW. This will yield above normal warmth, with lows of 65 to 70 (10-15 degrees above normal) and highs in the lower to mid 80s (5-10 degrees above normal) on MON. The upper trof is progged to advance slowly EWD MON and MON night, with well above normal low temperatures continuing TUE morning. As the trof continues EWD, it will nudge a cold front through the area during the day TUE, bringing low to mid range (20-40%) rain chances and west to NW winds that will usher in a cooler and drier airmass by TUE night. Dry and sunny/clear with temperatures at or below seasonal normals is expected WED and THU. 13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Some patchy fog may cause intermittent IFR visibilities through 12-13z, and quickly burn off after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR expected through the period. Expect southeast to south winds to increase after 15z around 12-15 kts with gusts over 20-24 kts. Winds expected to remain southerly around 8-10 kts after 00z. 08/DML && .MARINE... Onshore flow will continue through Easter Weekend as surface high pressure continues to slide east of the region. Expect southerly winds and seas to increase Sunday night and Monday as the pressure gradient increases between the surface high to the east and developing surface low over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Expect low chances of showers ahead of the next cold front Tuesday, followed by strong offshore flow Tuesday night. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 75 60 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 75 58 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 75 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...08
Office: SHV FXUS64 KSHV 291141 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 641 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Very quiet weather is expected in the short-term, as subtle ridging slowly builds in over the next 36-hours. Today, the surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten, which will allow for some gusty winds into the afternoon hours. Outside of that, temperatures will begin to warm under the ridge, with highs today ranging in the upper-70s, and highs tomorrow sneaking into the low-80s. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Much like the short-term, the long-term will also remain *mostly* quiet. The big exception will be Monday night into Tuesday, when a very potent trough and low pressure begin to eject NE towards the Great Lakes. Ahead of this trough, strong south winds will allow for ample moisture return into the region through the weekend, with decent destabilization of the airmass during the day on Monday. A very large slight risk is already in place for areas along and north of I-30, where the threat for severe weather looks the greatest. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes certainly can't be ruled out. It's also worth noting that given the current timing, this will be a nocturnal event, but that could easily change over the next several days. Once this cold front moves through the region Tuesday night, temperatures will briefly fall back to a seasonable feel, before quickly rebounding towards next weekend. /44/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 For 29/12 TAFS...VFR flight conditions at all of the TAF sites. These conditions should prevail during most of this TAF period, with high cirrus clouds moving in from west to east today. However, MVFR conditions could develop across our East Texas sites by the end of the period, as low cigs move into the region. Also, expect southerly winds to increase areawide today, with sustained wind speeds near 10 kts, along with gusts up to 20 kts. We could see slightly higher wind speeds and gusts at the KTYR/KGGG terminals. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 57 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 76 53 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 75 52 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 77 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 76 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 77 59 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 57 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 78 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20