la discuss
Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 131036
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
536 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
- Lower rain chances and warmer temps return first half of the
week.
- Stronger easterly winds may result in small craft advisory
conditions for the latter half of the week in the coastal
waters.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
A broad and deep ridge axis will continue expand eastward from the
southern Plains and Texas today and this will lead to both a
warmer and drier pattern for the start of the new week. Today and
tomorrow will see isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
fire up in the mid to late afternoon hours as temperatures climb
into the low to mid 90s. A weak remnant outflow boundary just
north of the coastal Mississippi and a developing seabreeze will
likely collide over this region, and inland areas north of I-10 on
the coast will have the greatest rain chances for today. This will
also be the area to most likely see a damaging wind gust potential
as deeper updrafts experience some dry air entrainment. DCAPE
values of 1100 to 1200 J/KG support this higher wind threat for
today. As the high continues to strengthen tomorrow, PWATS will
continue to fall and overall rain chances will diminish even
further. At most, some isolated storms may form in the late
afternoon hours along the seabreeze in coastal Louisiana and
Mississippi, but these storms will be short-lived and generally
weak. Temperatures will continue to run well above average with
highs in the low to mid 90s forecast. Fortunately, drier air aloft
will mix down to the surface and this will help keep heat index
values below advisory levels at around 100 to 105 degrees.
As the high continues to strengthen over Mississippi and Alabama
on Tuesday and Wednesday, the pressure gradient over the
region will start to increase. Low level easterly winds will
increase to 10 to 15 mph by Wednesday and there could be some
minor coastal flooding issues on east facing shores, mainly during
high tide. PWATS will remain near the average for this time of
year and a strong mid-level capping inversion will inhibit most
convective development across the area. As seen on Monday, the
most likely area for any convective development will be along the
coast of Louisiana and Mississippi in vicinity of the seabreeze.
The seabreeze will surge further inland on Wednesday on the back
of the stronger easterlies, so convection may even make it as far
north as metro New Orleans and the River Parishes. Fortunately,
any thunderstorm activity will be weak and short-lived due to the
strong cap in place aloft. Temperatures will remain well above
normal with highs climbing into the mid 90s inland the lower 90s
along the coast. No change to heat indices either as dry air
continues to mix down with readings peaking between 100 and 105.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
By Wednesday night, upper level ridging is expected to be centered
(599dm) near Huntsville, Alabama. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. This trough will develop a mid
level low that moves clockwise around the upper ridge, reaching
Florida Friday morning. Beyond that point, the operational GFS/ECMWF
solutions diverge greatly. It's been the case the last couple nights
that the 12z GFS and ECMWF give the same general forecast trends for
next weekend, then the 18z GFS diverges from that solution. The 12z
runs eventually take the upper system into the north central Gulf
next weekend, while the 18z GFS never brings it west of Florida and
then a northern stream shortwave picks it up and lifts it northeast.
This gives quite a bit of confidence to the forecast through at
least Friday, and possibly Saturday. Anything beyond that point is
beyond the scope of the current forecast package, and model
solutions usually do change in one way or another at that time range.
Anything more than very isolated convection over land would be
surprising in the Wednesday night through Friday night range. For
Saturday (and beyond), will live with the NBM solution for now,
while waiting to see which trend holds up with the upper pattern.
Temperatures during the day will remain well above normal with highs
in the lower and middle 90s. Overnight lows may be a little lower
for Wednesday night through Friday night as compared to earlier in
the week as drier air is transported into the local area from the
north and northeast around the upper ridge. Not out of the question
that the normally cooler areas of our CWA could see multiple nights
with lows in the 60s. Even if that happens, the numbers in the
guidance now would still be several degrees above normal as we
approach the autumnal equinox.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
No major change in thinking from the previous forecast. VFR
conditions and lower thunderstorm chances will continue through
tonight. The only terminals with a halfway decent chance of storms
firing continue to be GPT and HUM, but probabilities for
thunderstorms remain too low to mention in the forecast. Most
terminals will only see some scattered clouds form during the day
around 3500 feet.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
A broad surface high centered over the area will keep benign
conditions in place across the waters through Tuesday with light and
variable winds of less than 5 knots and seas of less than 2 feet
expected. A few showers or storms will pop up in the morning hours
with some locally higher winds and waves, but these impacts will be
short-lived each day. An increasing pressure difference will
develop on Wednesday and continue through the end of the week as a
broad low forms south of the waters and the high becomes more
centered over Mississippi and Alabama. This will cause winds to
increase to at least 20 to 25 knots with gusts near gale force for
the latter portion of the week. Seas will respond to these higher
winds and increase to 8 to 10 feet from Wednesday onward. Some minor
coastal flooding may also impact east facing shorelines over this
period.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 131119
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
619 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy, light fog will be possible Sunday morning in areas that
saw rain Saturday afternoon.
- Lower precipitation chances (20-30%) expected Sunday as an upper
level ridge begins building into the region.
- Hot conditions will persist through the week with only a 20-30%
chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Winds have fallen below five knots across the region
this evening with several sites reporting calm winds. This, along
with clearing skies and wet ground from thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon will support the potential for some light ground fog
toward sunrise this morning. Any fog that develops should be short
lived and completely dissipated no later than 8 AM.
The tropical wave responsible for higher than normal afternoon
convection over the last couple of days is now lifting off to the
northeast. A relatively flat height field aloft today along with
continued deep tropical moisture will allow scattered, diurnally
driven thunderstorms to develop this afternoon although coverage may
not be quite as high as it has been the last couple of days. Away
from storms, afternoon heat indices will again climb to between 105-
110. The official forecast is on the threshold of a Heat Advisory,
but confidence isn't high enough that indices will exceed criteria
across a broad enough area to justify the issuance at this time.
Guidance is in consistent agreement that upper level ridging
invading from the west will build across the northern gulf Monday
where it's expected to meander through much of the upcoming week.
The resulting subsidence will drop precipitation chances to 20% or
less each afternoon with the lack of cloud cover driving afternoon
highs into the mid to upper 90s each day. The need for Heat
Advisories will have to be monitored each day through at least the
first half of the week.
Jones
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Some shallow patchy fog and low stratus may occur at terminals
until shortly after sunrise or 13/13z with brief MVFR/IFR
conditions.
Expect showers to begin to develop near the coast by 13/15z with
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea
breeze advancing inland by 13/17z. Will mention PROB30 for the
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA terminals to cover this. Away from the
convection expect VFR and light winds.
Any convection that develops should diminish with the loss of
daytime heating by 14/00z.
07/Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
A few nocturnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over the coastal waters Sunday morning with this activity expected
to wane during the afternoon as the sea breeze works inland. Upper
level ridging is expected to build across the northern gulf Monday
through the rest of the week which will keep precipitation chances
negligible. At the surface, weak high pressure will maintain light
southerly winds and low seas through the upcoming week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Patchy, light fog will be possible near sunrise this
morning with the highest probability of fog occurring across areas
that saw precipitation Saturday afternoon. A few afternoon
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty winds from outflow boundaries. Upper
level ridging will build into the region by Monday keeping
precipitation chances limited to 20% or less each day through the
week. Away from storms, light southerly winds will prevail through
the upcoming week.
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...07
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 131133
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
- Late summer heat continues unabated with more heat advisories
likely beyond today through much of this upcoming week.
- Rain chances will be largely negligible throughout the week as
well with only very isolated afternoon convection due to the
influence of the dominant upper ridge.
- The ridge is expected to migrate back westward and further
retrograde W/SW by late next weekend, paving the way for a
cold front to make its way south into our region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Although the calendar suggests temperatures should be trending
cooler by this point in September, that isn't the case for now.
The unrelenting heat will be with us for the duration of this
upcoming week due to the upper ridge that simply refuses to give
up the ghost. At this point, we're just as tired of writing about
it as the rest of you are of reading about it. So for this last
full week of summer, just know that it will very much continue to
feel like it and then some. Heat safety reminders should still be
exercised throughout this week with all outdoor activities and
especially youth sports with daily high temperatures in the upper
90s to lower 100s.
Adding to the heat concerns, a lack of appreciable rainfall will
also continue to exacerbate the ongoing drought conditions and
wildfire danger. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain
light throughout the week while afternoon relative humidity isn't
expected to bottom out too low given that dew points are expected
to hold in the lower to mid 70s. Of course, the counter to that is
the additional impact on heat concerns with heat index values from
105-109 degrees with less mixing out of low-level moisture during
the afternoon.
Looking out beyond this upcoming week, medium-range guidance does
continue to point toward an eventual pattern shift beyond this
forecast period. However, the caveat is there just isn't enough
confidence yet to say exactly what that pattern change will bring
in terms of heat relief and improving rain chances. For now, NBM
guidance continues to trend slightly lower with temperatures by
next weekend with a cold front attempting to make a run southward
into our region. So maybe, just maybe we're starting to see some
light at the end of this long tunnel we call Summer in the South.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
For the 13/12z TAF update...Radar imagery remains quiet this
morning, but that should change as we move into the afternoon
hours as some isolated convection will develop. I don't think that
any terminals will see a direct impact from any thunderstorms, but
I have left mention of VCTS for all terminals this afternoon.
While winds will be light throughout this period, there is some
potential that winds could be gusty and erratic at times from any
outflow boundaries that develop from thunderstorms. /33/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 99 76 99 76 / 20 0 10 0
MLU 99 75 100 75 / 30 10 10 0
DEQ 100 71 99 71 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 100 75 99 75 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 100 73 100 73 / 20 0 10 0
TYR 99 75 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 101 74 100 74 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 96 74 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
