la discuss
Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 261313
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
813 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Routine sounding terminated over Mississippi Sound south of Ocean
Springs at a height of 110,000 feet or 20.8 miles above the
surface.
Airmass remains moist and unstable with a precipitable water value
of 1.82 inches, and a MU CAPE of 2764 J/kg. Lifted index of the MU
parcel was -8. Lapse rates above the surface were about 6.5C/km.
Freezing level was near 13,000 feet and -20C level at 24,400 feet.
Shear almost non-existent in the lower levels this morning. Winds
lighter than 10 knots until 400 mb, mainly out of the south.
Winds became west to northwest above 200 mb through 75 mb. Max
wind of 37 knots near 46,000 feet. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
SHORT TERM...
Unsettled weather continues across the CWA. The combination of
minimized subsidence, ample moisture in place (PW's near average
max for this time of year), and daytime heating will once again
produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Localized 2 to 4" will be possible with such high PWs. The flash
flood watch remains in effect for this reason and expanded north
to account for development there. Coverage the last few days has
been well above guidance. With no changes in the air mass today,
bumped up POPs into the 70 to 90% range. Thunderstorm movement
will be dominated by outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...
Potentially even more impactful weather still looks to be the
case over this Memorial Day weekend due to Alberto. Global models
have come into much better agreement on the track of this tropical
system. After days of the GFS being the eastern solution and the
ECMWF being the western one, they have since swapped. The official
NHC track is roughly an average of those, and of course tropical
model solutions. It's not much different than previous forecasts
which means expected local impacts remain the same. The biggest
focus will be rainfall totals. There will quite a gradient from
west to east across the CWA. Based on the current forecast track,
areas west of Lake Pontchartrain will see the least amount of
rain, probably not much more than inch or so. Therefore, will
likely be removing many of those parishes from the Flash Flood
Watch. East of the Lake is where well several inches to possibly
isolated amounts over a foot will be possible. The greatest
concern in along the Mississippi Coast as it will be closest to
the center, mainly in the late Sunday through late Monday
timeframe.
Building ridge west/southwest of the area and weak trough racing
across the upper Mississippi Valley will force the tropical
moisture northeast and out of the region around the middle of next
week. Temperatures will bounce back into the lower to mid 90s.
MEFFER
MARINE...
Winds will remain in and around the 10-15kt range over open waters
and even lighter in protected waters. Winds should start to respond
today Alberto. Models are much more agreeable with the eventual
path of the storm.
TPC started advisories yesterday and these will be headlined in all
waters along and east of the Miss River. There will still be the
possibility of small craft advisory headlines for waters west of
Port Fourchon. But these winds do not take place until Sunday night
or Monday. If winds do not meet criteria, sea heights surely will as
swell should be around 4 to 6 feet and wind waves on top of that
should make a total sea of around 8 feet or better.
AVIATION...
Most if not all terminals will experience sh/ts again today. Storm
motion will be very slow. This will begin to change into Sunday as
sh/ts will begin to move from east to west within the outer flow of
Alberto otherwise VFR outside thunderstorms.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: ORANGE.
Deployed: None.
Activation: Tropical desk; 6 hourly upper air special releases
Activities: Tropical cyclone briefings; potential flood
monitoring.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 71 86 73 / 80 50 50 30
BTR 88 72 88 75 / 80 50 50 30
ASD 86 71 81 74 / 70 40 70 60
MSY 87 75 83 77 / 70 40 70 60
GPT 85 73 80 76 / 70 40 80 70
PQL 84 71 80 75 / 70 40 90 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ040-049-050-057-058-060>064-068>070-
072.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ040-050-058-
060-061-072.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-
575-577.
MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ080>082.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ070-071-077-
080>082.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-575-
577.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KLIX 261313
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
813 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Routine sounding terminated over Mississippi Sound south of Ocean
Springs at a height of 110,000 feet or 20.8 miles above the
surface.
Airmass remains moist and unstable with a precipitable water value
of 1.82 inches, and a MU CAPE of 2764 J/kg. Lifted index of the MU
parcel was -8. Lapse rates above the surface were about 6.5C/km.
Freezing level was near 13,000 feet and -20C level at 24,400 feet.
Shear almost non-existent in the lower levels this morning. Winds
lighter than 10 knots until 400 mb, mainly out of the south.
Winds became west to northwest above 200 mb through 75 mb. Max
wind of 37 knots near 46,000 feet. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
SHORT TERM...
Unsettled weather continues across the CWA. The combination of
minimized subsidence, ample moisture in place (PW's near average
max for this time of year), and daytime heating will once again
produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Localized 2 to 4" will be possible with such high PWs. The flash
flood watch remains in effect for this reason and expanded north
to account for development there. Coverage the last few days has
been well above guidance. With no changes in the air mass today,
bumped up POPs into the 70 to 90% range. Thunderstorm movement
will be dominated by outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...
Potentially even more impactful weather still looks to be the
case over this Memorial Day weekend due to Alberto. Global models
have come into much better agreement on the track of this tropical
system. After days of the GFS being the eastern solution and the
ECMWF being the western one, they have since swapped. The official
NHC track is roughly an average of those, and of course tropical
model solutions. It's not much different than previous forecasts
which means expected local impacts remain the same. The biggest
focus will be rainfall totals. There will quite a gradient from
west to east across the CWA. Based on the current forecast track,
areas west of Lake Pontchartrain will see the least amount of
rain, probably not much more than inch or so. Therefore, will
likely be removing many of those parishes from the Flash Flood
Watch. East of the Lake is where well several inches to possibly
isolated amounts over a foot will be possible. The greatest
concern in along the Mississippi Coast as it will be closest to
the center, mainly in the late Sunday through late Monday
timeframe.
Building ridge west/southwest of the area and weak trough racing
across the upper Mississippi Valley will force the tropical
moisture northeast and out of the region around the middle of next
week. Temperatures will bounce back into the lower to mid 90s.
MEFFER
MARINE...
Winds will remain in and around the 10-15kt range over open waters
and even lighter in protected waters. Winds should start to respond
today Alberto. Models are much more agreeable with the eventual
path of the storm.
TPC started advisories yesterday and these will be headlined in all
waters along and east of the Miss River. There will still be the
possibility of small craft advisory headlines for waters west of
Port Fourchon. But these winds do not take place until Sunday night
or Monday. If winds do not meet criteria, sea heights surely will as
swell should be around 4 to 6 feet and wind waves on top of that
should make a total sea of around 8 feet or better.
AVIATION...
Most if not all terminals will experience sh/ts again today. Storm
motion will be very slow. This will begin to change into Sunday as
sh/ts will begin to move from east to west within the outer flow of
Alberto otherwise VFR outside thunderstorms.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: ORANGE.
Deployed: None.
Activation: Tropical desk; 6 hourly upper air special releases
Activities: Tropical cyclone briefings; potential flood
monitoring.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 71 86 73 / 80 50 50 30
BTR 88 72 88 75 / 80 50 50 30
ASD 86 71 81 74 / 70 40 70 60
MSY 87 75 83 77 / 70 40 70 60
GPT 85 73 80 76 / 70 40 80 70
PQL 84 71 80 75 / 70 40 90 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ040-049-050-057-058-060>064-068>070-
072.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ040-050-058-
060-061-072.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-
575-577.
MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ080>082.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ070-071-077-
080>082.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-575-
577.
&&
$$
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 261132
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
632 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...
A few showers and thunderstorms already ongoing this morning. This
activity is expected to become more widespread by late this
morning into the afternoon as a very moist atmosphere and upper
trough will provide favorable conditions for convective
development once temperatures begin to warm.
Lower overall precipitation chances for BPT where upper ridging
will slowly edge in by this afternoon providing some convective
suppression. However, still think there will be enough coverage
to warrant VCTS.
Most storms will dissipate by around sunset, but with the weakness
aloft beginning to interact with a northward advancing subtropical
storm Alberto, developed storms will have the potential to linger
later into the evening than is typically seen.
Jones
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Late night sfc analysis continues to show the forecast area under
the influence of high pressure centered over the Atlantic,
providing for a mainly light onshore flow across the forecast
area. Meanwhile, our interest also lies in disorganized
Subtropical Storm Alberto centered south of the Yucatan Straits.
Water vapor imagery/00z UA analysis shows troffing in place from
the Great Lakes swd to the wrn Gulf region and adjacent Gulf
waters. Regional 88Ds show a bit of convection associated with a
weak disturbance dropping swd on the back side of the trof
approaching the nwrn zones, although coverage/intensity have been
diminishing of late. Closer to home, another round of nocturnal
convection has been developing near the coast, primarily west of
Marsh Island.
Not many changes to the short term this morning as
scattered/possibly widespread convection looks possible by the
afternoon, especially across the ern 2/3 of the area, with nil
capping aloft under the trof axis overhead plus low convective
trigger temps per forecast soundings. Convection could be a little
less widespread west of the Sabine where ridging aloft to our
west could have a little more influence. Coverage will begin to
diminish around sunset, with best rain chances during the
overnight hours coming closer to the coast as well as over lower
Acadiana (although only slight chance POPs are being carried at
this time).
Most eyes across the Gulf Coast continue to watch the future track
of Alberto...expected to gain tropical characteristics over the
next 24 hours or so as shear over the storm lessens while it moves
over warmer Gulf waters. Models are in good agreement with the
track, moving the storm nwd/nnwwd around expected cutoff low
development in the base of the mid/upper trof over the cntl Gulf
into Monday...taking the center of what's expected to be a high
end tropical storm into the Mobile Bay area on Monday. With the
bulk of the rainfall with this system expected to remain east of
its center, forecast POPs for our area are only expected to run in
the chance neighborhood into the early portion of the new
week...in fact, no mention of precip is being carried over sern TX
on Monday.
Once Alberto pushes nwd past the Gulf Coast, the remainder of the
forecast period looks mainly dry and hot as ridging aloft builds
across the region. Daytime highs are expected to top out in the
mid 90s for most of the area during the latter half of the week.
MARINE...
For now, no headlines are being carried on the coastal waters in
relation to Alberto...as long as future tracks stay as far east of
the area as they are now, see no changes to this trend coming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 91 72 93 71 / 50 30 40 10
LCH 91 74 92 74 / 40 30 40 10
LFT 90 74 90 73 / 70 30 40 20
BPT 92 75 95 75 / 40 30 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...66
FXUS64 KLCH 261132
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
632 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...
A few showers and thunderstorms already ongoing this morning. This
activity is expected to become more widespread by late this
morning into the afternoon as a very moist atmosphere and upper
trough will provide favorable conditions for convective
development once temperatures begin to warm.
Lower overall precipitation chances for BPT where upper ridging
will slowly edge in by this afternoon providing some convective
suppression. However, still think there will be enough coverage
to warrant VCTS.
Most storms will dissipate by around sunset, but with the weakness
aloft beginning to interact with a northward advancing subtropical
storm Alberto, developed storms will have the potential to linger
later into the evening than is typically seen.
Jones
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Late night sfc analysis continues to show the forecast area under
the influence of high pressure centered over the Atlantic,
providing for a mainly light onshore flow across the forecast
area. Meanwhile, our interest also lies in disorganized
Subtropical Storm Alberto centered south of the Yucatan Straits.
Water vapor imagery/00z UA analysis shows troffing in place from
the Great Lakes swd to the wrn Gulf region and adjacent Gulf
waters. Regional 88Ds show a bit of convection associated with a
weak disturbance dropping swd on the back side of the trof
approaching the nwrn zones, although coverage/intensity have been
diminishing of late. Closer to home, another round of nocturnal
convection has been developing near the coast, primarily west of
Marsh Island.
Not many changes to the short term this morning as
scattered/possibly widespread convection looks possible by the
afternoon, especially across the ern 2/3 of the area, with nil
capping aloft under the trof axis overhead plus low convective
trigger temps per forecast soundings. Convection could be a little
less widespread west of the Sabine where ridging aloft to our
west could have a little more influence. Coverage will begin to
diminish around sunset, with best rain chances during the
overnight hours coming closer to the coast as well as over lower
Acadiana (although only slight chance POPs are being carried at
this time).
Most eyes across the Gulf Coast continue to watch the future track
of Alberto...expected to gain tropical characteristics over the
next 24 hours or so as shear over the storm lessens while it moves
over warmer Gulf waters. Models are in good agreement with the
track, moving the storm nwd/nnwwd around expected cutoff low
development in the base of the mid/upper trof over the cntl Gulf
into Monday...taking the center of what's expected to be a high
end tropical storm into the Mobile Bay area on Monday. With the
bulk of the rainfall with this system expected to remain east of
its center, forecast POPs for our area are only expected to run in
the chance neighborhood into the early portion of the new
week...in fact, no mention of precip is being carried over sern TX
on Monday.
Once Alberto pushes nwd past the Gulf Coast, the remainder of the
forecast period looks mainly dry and hot as ridging aloft builds
across the region. Daytime highs are expected to top out in the
mid 90s for most of the area during the latter half of the week.
MARINE...
For now, no headlines are being carried on the coastal waters in
relation to Alberto...as long as future tracks stay as far east of
the area as they are now, see no changes to this trend coming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 91 72 93 71 / 50 30 40 10
LCH 91 74 92 74 / 40 30 40 10
LFT 90 74 90 73 / 70 30 40 20
BPT 92 75 95 75 / 40 30 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...66
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 261458
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
958 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
.UPDATE...
Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast such as
ensuring the surface temperature curve is reflective of ongoing
trends, and thus subsequently tweaking the dewpoint temperatures
and relative humidity values. Otherwise, isolated showers have
commenced to develop across portions of east TX this morning and
have therefore increased POPs to low end chance category across
the said areas. Additional isolated shower and thunderstorms
development is expected later this afternoon elsewhere, as
daytime destabilization becomes more prevalent. Similar to what
has occurred for the last several days, some of the thunderstorms
this afternoon could become strong /and possibly severe/ with
gusty winds, small hail and brief moderate rainfall being the main
threats.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
AVIATION...
For the 26/12z TAFs, convection has largely dissipated, but
redevelopment is likely pretty much anywhere. However, the best
chances for precip will generally be over Louisiana and Southern
Arkansas. Therefore, VCTS remarks were included at KSHV, KELD, and
KMLU. Any convection that develops should gradually dissipate
after sunset. VFR conditions should prevail for most of the
period, but model guidance suggest MVFR ceilings may develop at
most TAF sites after 27/06z.
CN
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/
An area of convection will continue to move south-southeast this
morning across portions of East Texas. Latest radar trends over
the last couple of hours show a gradual weakening trend. The HRRR
and a couple of the other higher resolution models depict this
activity rapidly weakening with southward-extent after 12z this
morning. The expansion and movement of an upper level ridge
eastward across the Southern Plains should result in increased
subsidence over East Texas, so decreasing PoPs are expected across
the western half of the CWA today. Farther east, a weak upper
trough over Eastern Arkansas/Northwest Mississippi will move
southward and into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough may once again
provide some enhancement to the diurnally-driven convection today
across Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. It is interesting
to note that the NAM is rather aggressive with maintaining
convection through tonight and into early Sunday morning on the
western periphery of this trough. However, this appears to be an
outlier among the various models. Given the strengthening and
expanding upper ridge from the west, the forecast was kept dry
from midnight until Sunday morning.
Diurnal convection will once again be primarily limited to
Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. This activity will
likely be associated with the farthest outer bands of what is now
Subtropical Storm Alberto as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico
towards Mobile Bay. Given how far away the center of Alberto will
be, coverage of the convective bands will likely be scattered at
best. Therefore, PoPs were kept in the chance category.
Otherwise, the heat continues to build. Through Sunday, the
hottest temperatures should be expected over Southeast Oklahoma
and East Texas where the cloud cover and rain chances will be the
lowest. Daytime temperatures on Sunday should easily warm into the
mid 90s west of a line from Clarksville to Lufkin.
CN
LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Friday/
Although a few showers may linger into Sunday evening from the
afternoon convection over north central Louisiana, the real focus
turns to Subtropical Storm Alberto. Alberto will approach the
northern Gulf Coast during the latter part of this holiday
weekend, as high pressure remains entrenched over the central part
of the US and continues to dominate our weather. This ridge of
high pressure will act as a block, keeping the vast majority of
the rainfall well to our east. However, a few showers and
thunderstorms may wrap around the back side of the low and into
north central Louisiana on Monday and Tuesday.
The real story for the ArkLaTex though will be with the hot and
muggy conditions continuing and and then getting worse. Being on
the west side of Alberto will allow for the area to experience
compressional heating fr.SHORT TERM...
.LONG TERM...
&&om subsidence for Sunday and Monday, keeping
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Then the ridge will
really build into the region during the work week, with temperatures
continuing to climb. At this point in time, the models are only
suggesting temperatures across the region warming in the upper 90s
for Wednesday onward, but heat indices will be over 100.
Palmer
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1231 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
AVIATION...
For the 26/06Z terminals forecast will prevail with mostly VFR
with lingering showers associated with old outflow boundaries
across North Louisiana. New development expected over Southeast
Oklahoma and into Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas
overnight with disturbance rounding Northeast periphery of ridge
aloft to the West. The terminals affected by the new convection
to include KTXK, KGGG, KTYR and possibly KSHV. MVFR flight
categories returning with visibility restrictions in rain and
possibly mist/BR after 26/09Z-26/12Z. Could see brief IFR near
daybreak then VFR returning by mid morning. Will enter mention of
convection earlier in the day Saturday with the position of the
upper trough of low pressure across the Central and Eastern
sections of the Four State Region. Surface winds will be light and
variable less than 7 knots through most of the forecast period
with a period of Southwest to West speeds near 7 knots early on
Saturday from mid morning to mid afternoon. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 73 93 72 / 30 20 20 0
MLU 90 71 90 70 / 40 20 40 20
DEQ 92 70 94 69 / 20 10 10 0
TXK 91 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 0
ELD 91 70 90 69 / 40 20 30 10
TYR 92 73 94 72 / 30 10 10 0
GGG 92 72 93 72 / 30 10 10 0
LFK 92 72 94 72 / 30 20 20 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29/09/28/06
FXUS64 KSHV 261458
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
958 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
.UPDATE...
Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast such as
ensuring the surface temperature curve is reflective of ongoing
trends, and thus subsequently tweaking the dewpoint temperatures
and relative humidity values. Otherwise, isolated showers have
commenced to develop across portions of east TX this morning and
have therefore increased POPs to low end chance category across
the said areas. Additional isolated shower and thunderstorms
development is expected later this afternoon elsewhere, as
daytime destabilization becomes more prevalent. Similar to what
has occurred for the last several days, some of the thunderstorms
this afternoon could become strong /and possibly severe/ with
gusty winds, small hail and brief moderate rainfall being the main
threats.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
AVIATION...
For the 26/12z TAFs, convection has largely dissipated, but
redevelopment is likely pretty much anywhere. However, the best
chances for precip will generally be over Louisiana and Southern
Arkansas. Therefore, VCTS remarks were included at KSHV, KELD, and
KMLU. Any convection that develops should gradually dissipate
after sunset. VFR conditions should prevail for most of the
period, but model guidance suggest MVFR ceilings may develop at
most TAF sites after 27/06z.
CN
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/
An area of convection will continue to move south-southeast this
morning across portions of East Texas. Latest radar trends over
the last couple of hours show a gradual weakening trend. The HRRR
and a couple of the other higher resolution models depict this
activity rapidly weakening with southward-extent after 12z this
morning. The expansion and movement of an upper level ridge
eastward across the Southern Plains should result in increased
subsidence over East Texas, so decreasing PoPs are expected across
the western half of the CWA today. Farther east, a weak upper
trough over Eastern Arkansas/Northwest Mississippi will move
southward and into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough may once again
provide some enhancement to the diurnally-driven convection today
across Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. It is interesting
to note that the NAM is rather aggressive with maintaining
convection through tonight and into early Sunday morning on the
western periphery of this trough. However, this appears to be an
outlier among the various models. Given the strengthening and
expanding upper ridge from the west, the forecast was kept dry
from midnight until Sunday morning.
Diurnal convection will once again be primarily limited to
Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. This activity will
likely be associated with the farthest outer bands of what is now
Subtropical Storm Alberto as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico
towards Mobile Bay. Given how far away the center of Alberto will
be, coverage of the convective bands will likely be scattered at
best. Therefore, PoPs were kept in the chance category.
Otherwise, the heat continues to build. Through Sunday, the
hottest temperatures should be expected over Southeast Oklahoma
and East Texas where the cloud cover and rain chances will be the
lowest. Daytime temperatures on Sunday should easily warm into the
mid 90s west of a line from Clarksville to Lufkin.
CN
LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Friday/
Although a few showers may linger into Sunday evening from the
afternoon convection over north central Louisiana, the real focus
turns to Subtropical Storm Alberto. Alberto will approach the
northern Gulf Coast during the latter part of this holiday
weekend, as high pressure remains entrenched over the central part
of the US and continues to dominate our weather. This ridge of
high pressure will act as a block, keeping the vast majority of
the rainfall well to our east. However, a few showers and
thunderstorms may wrap around the back side of the low and into
north central Louisiana on Monday and Tuesday.
The real story for the ArkLaTex though will be with the hot and
muggy conditions continuing and and then getting worse. Being on
the west side of Alberto will allow for the area to experience
compressional heating fr.SHORT TERM...
.LONG TERM...
&&om subsidence for Sunday and Monday, keeping
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Then the ridge will
really build into the region during the work week, with temperatures
continuing to climb. At this point in time, the models are only
suggesting temperatures across the region warming in the upper 90s
for Wednesday onward, but heat indices will be over 100.
Palmer
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1231 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
AVIATION...
For the 26/06Z terminals forecast will prevail with mostly VFR
with lingering showers associated with old outflow boundaries
across North Louisiana. New development expected over Southeast
Oklahoma and into Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas
overnight with disturbance rounding Northeast periphery of ridge
aloft to the West. The terminals affected by the new convection
to include KTXK, KGGG, KTYR and possibly KSHV. MVFR flight
categories returning with visibility restrictions in rain and
possibly mist/BR after 26/09Z-26/12Z. Could see brief IFR near
daybreak then VFR returning by mid morning. Will enter mention of
convection earlier in the day Saturday with the position of the
upper trough of low pressure across the Central and Eastern
sections of the Four State Region. Surface winds will be light and
variable less than 7 knots through most of the forecast period
with a period of Southwest to West speeds near 7 knots early on
Saturday from mid morning to mid afternoon. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 73 93 72 / 30 20 20 0
MLU 90 71 90 70 / 40 20 40 20
DEQ 92 70 94 69 / 20 10 10 0
TXK 91 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 0
ELD 91 70 90 69 / 40 20 30 10
TYR 92 73 94 72 / 30 10 10 0
GGG 92 72 93 72 / 30 10 10 0
LFK 92 72 94 72 / 30 20 20 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29/09/28/06
