la discuss
Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 051720
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Upper ridging is thus far keeping convection mostly at bay this
afternoon. With a lack of rain-cooled outflow, temperatures are
currently sitting in the lower 90s most locations and should rise
into the mid 90s across much of the area. Thankfully, dewpoints
are starging to come down a degree or two as daytime heating has
promoted vertical mixing. This has helped keep heat index values
generally in the 98-102 degree range thus far. Will likely see
those bump up another couple degrees before the afternoon is done,
but these values are fairly typical of summers on the Gulf Coast.
Any showers and storms that develop this afternoon should
diminish around or shortly after sunset, with overnight lows
forecast in the mid to upper 70s, which is a few degrees warmer
than normal most locations.
Tomorrow will see the start of a pattern change as the upper high
breaks down, being replaced by weak troughing between an upper
high over the southwestern CONUS and a second high building over
the western Atlantic. This weakness combined with an increase in
moisture will lead to an increase in afternoon showers and
storms. Whereas the POPs in today's forecast were in the 10-30%
range across the area, we should see an increase into the 30-50%
range for tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
No significant changes to the forecast or forecast thinking going
into the work week. More active pattern should set up through the
week as the local area remains under the influence of a general
weakness or even weak troughing in the upper levels.
With the upper level weakness and increasing moisture, expect
convective coverage to increase through the week, with at least
scattered showers and storms driven by mostly diurnal heating
processes. By late in the week, an upper trough is forecast to dig
into the middle Mississippi Valley, which should result in a
further increase in convective coverage.
Regarding temperatures, the increase in showers and storms should
help bring afternoon highs down a degree or two, but that will
still keep them slightly warmer than normal at most locations.
Morning lows will similarly continue to run a couple degrees
warmer normal, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s each day.
As was mentioned yesterday, despite the higher rain chances
through the week, rainfall totals are still forecast to be
generally low with totals less than 2 inches forecast over the
next 7 days. However, as is the case with summertime
thunderstorms, localized totals could be substantially higher,
with some thunderstorms possibly producing 1-2 inches in a
relatively short period of time as they pass over any given
location.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. With only isolated
convection in the forecast for this afternoon, probability of
impacts in any given location is too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. Fog was a bit more impactful than anticipated
earlier this morning, but that was likely due in part to
lingering smoke particles from fireworks displays. That being
said shouldn't see a repeat tonight, but patchy light fog can't
be ruled out. With MCB being the most likely location affected,
have included a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions around daybreak.
Expect an increase in convective coverage Sunday compared to
today, but best chances are beyond current TAF period except for
at MSY where a PROB30 group has been included after 18z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any
localized impacts from convection. Light offshore flow will
persist through the remainder of today, but will become more
erratic tonight and then shift to a more onshore direction through
the work week. Expect convective coverage to increase through the
work week as moisture and instability increase across the region.
This convection should follow a typical diurnal pattern, with a
daily maximum across the coastal waters during the late night and
morning hours, and minimum during the afternoon and evening
hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 93 71 93 / 10 50 10 50
BTR 75 95 74 93 / 10 60 20 60
ASD 73 93 72 93 / 10 50 20 50
MSY 79 94 77 93 / 20 60 20 60
GPT 73 92 74 92 / 10 40 20 40
PQL 71 93 72 93 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
FXUS64 KLIX 051740
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Corrected issuance times on individual sections from AM to PM. No
other changes made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Upper ridging is thus far keeping convection mostly at bay this
afternoon. With a lack of rain-cooled outflow, temperatures are
currently sitting in the lower 90s most locations and should rise
into the mid 90s across much of the area. Thankfully, dewpoints
are starging to come down a degree or two as daytime heating has
promoted vertical mixing. This has helped keep heat index values
generally in the 98-102 degree range thus far. Will likely see
those bump up another couple degrees before the afternoon is done,
but these values are fairly typical of summers on the Gulf Coast.
Any showers and storms that develop this afternoon should
diminish around or shortly after sunset, with overnight lows
forecast in the mid to upper 70s, which is a few degrees warmer
than normal most locations.
Tomorrow will see the start of a pattern change as the upper high
breaks down, being replaced by weak troughing between an upper
high over the southwestern CONUS and a second high building over
the western Atlantic. This weakness combined with an increase in
moisture will lead to an increase in afternoon showers and
storms. Whereas the POPs in today's forecast were in the 10-30%
range across the area, we should see an increase into the 30-50%
range for tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
No significant changes to the forecast or forecast thinking going
into the work week. More active pattern should set up through the
week as the local area remains under the influence of a general
weakness or even weak troughing in the upper levels.
With the upper level weakness and increasing moisture, expect
convective coverage to increase through the week, with at least
scattered showers and storms driven by mostly diurnal heating
processes. By late in the week, an upper trough is forecast to dig
into the middle Mississippi Valley, which should result in a
further increase in convective coverage.
Regarding temperatures, the increase in showers and storms should
help bring afternoon highs down a degree or two, but that will
still keep them slightly warmer than normal at most locations.
Morning lows will similarly continue to run a couple degrees
warmer normal, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s each day.
As was mentioned yesterday, despite the higher rain chances
through the week, rainfall totals are still forecast to be
generally low with totals less than 2 inches forecast over the
next 7 days. However, as is the case with summertime
thunderstorms, localized totals could be substantially higher,
with some thunderstorms possibly producing 1-2 inches in a
relatively short period of time as they pass over any given
location.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. With only isolated
convection in the forecast for this afternoon, probability of
impacts in any given location is too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. Fog was a bit more impactful than anticipated
earlier this morning, but that was likely due in part to
lingering smoke particles from fireworks displays. That being
said shouldn't see a repeat tonight, but patchy light fog can't
be ruled out. With MCB being the most likely location affected,
have included a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions around daybreak.
Expect an increase in convective coverage Sunday compared to
today, but best chances are beyond current TAF period except for
at MSY where a PROB30 group has been included after 18z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any
localized impacts from convection. Light offshore flow will
persist through the remainder of today, but will become more
erratic tonight and then shift to a more onshore direction through
the work week. Expect convective coverage to increase through the
work week as moisture and instability increase across the region.
This convection should follow a typical diurnal pattern, with a
daily maximum across the coastal waters during the late night and
morning hours, and minimum during the afternoon and evening
hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 93 71 92 / 10 40 20 60
BTR 75 94 74 93 / 0 50 20 70
ASD 72 93 72 93 / 10 40 20 60
MSY 79 94 77 93 / 10 40 20 60
GPT 73 92 74 91 / 10 30 20 50
PQL 71 93 72 92 / 10 30 10 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 051800
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Regardless of heat headline issuance, please continue to
practice heat safety precautions.
- Weakness aloft will support higher rain chances through early
to mid this work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
A relatively typical summertime pattern is unfolding across the
region this afternoon, with mostly quiet conditions and
temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Compared to
yesterday, reduced cloud cover is allowing for increased surface
heating, with highs expected to peak in the mid 90s.
A weakening ridge continues to influence the area, though it is
gradually eroding as a weak trough approaches and an area of low
pressure, associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, lingers off the
Carolina coast. While subsidence from the ridge is still
sufficient to suppress widespread convection, isolated to low end
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this
afternoon, primarily diurnally driven and tapering during the
evening hours.
A transition in the upper level pattern is anticipated by Sunday
as the aforementioned tropical low detaches and migrates westward,
positioning itself over the Gulf. This will lead to increased
showers and thunderstorms, especially from late Sunday through
early next week.
Temperatures during the short term will remain near to slightly
above climatological normals (within ~3°F), though high humidity
will result in heat indices ranging from 100 to 105°F each
afternoon. While this does not meet local heat advisory criteria,
prolonged exposure may still pose health risks—particularly for
vulnerable populations. Hydration, sun protection, and frequent
cooling breaks are strongly encouraged for those with prolonged
outdoor activity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
The long term period begins with an upper level trough lingering
across the region, promoting daily chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms into midweek. By late week, guidance suggests a
gradual amplification of heights as ridging attempts to build in.
This transition should begin to suppress convective activity to
some degree, especially by Thursday and Friday.
As convective coverage decreases, daytime temperatures are
expected to climb slightly. Heat index values will likewise trend
upward, potentially reaching numerical thresholds for heat
headlines late in the period. Regardless of official criteria
being met, heat risks will remain a concern, and heat safety
measures should continue to be practiced.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the current TAF
cycle, with light surface winds. Isolated showers may develop
along any sea breeze boundaries this afternoon, warranting VCSH
mention for coastal terminals. A brief period of patchy fog cannot
be ruled out late tonight into early Sunday morning, though
forecast confidence in coverage and impacts remains low at this
time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Expect to see a gradual return to typical summertime shower and
storm activity from this weekend into the next work week. Weak
surface high pressure meandering around the northwest Gulf today
and early Sunday will keep seas low and rain chances fairly low.
By Sunday afternoon and beyond, expect daily chances for scattered
to numerous shower and thunderstorms over coastal waters. Seas
will remain low through the period as patterns stall and weakness
remains overhead.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Rain chances to increase early to mid this work week. Daily
minimum RH values in the 40 to 65 percent range can be expected.
With little forcing, winds will also remain fairly low.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 96 72 94 / 0 30 10 50
LCH 76 93 76 91 / 0 30 10 60
LFT 75 93 74 91 / 10 50 20 70
BPT 74 93 74 91 / 0 20 10 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 051723
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
- Today will remain hot across the ArkLaTex, while the region
sees a break from showers and thunderstorms.
- Daily afternoon storm chances will resume Sunday, generally
keeping east of the I-49 corridor, with increasing coverage as
a system arrives midweek.
- Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue throughout,
with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Today will be the only real break in rain for the foreseeable
future as the seasonal afternoon convection starts up again
Sunday. But tonight is looking to stay dry with the help of the
exiting ridge and the incoming influence of the stationary area of
high pressure over the Desert Southwest. It will be plenty humid
overnight, with temperatures falling to the mid 70s.
The strengthening desert high is expected to reach parts of East
Texas, which will help keep rain at bay beginning on Sunday. But
this will leave our northeastern, eastern, and southeastern zones
open to more summer afternoon showers over the next several days.
These showers will also be assisted by an area of low pressure off
in the Gulf that will supply plenty of moisture and added heat.
This pattern will allow for a gradual heating trend, with
temperatures at the beginning of the work week reaching the mid to
upper 90s.
More question marks become apparent around the middle of next
week. The NBM is picking up on more widespread rain chances across
the Ark-La-Tx, even though most chances are limited to below 45%.
There could be a few different factors to consider: one is that
the high in the Desert Southwest is expected to shift its center
slightly to the west by Wednesday. This could pull back the region
of increased subsidence that was keeping parts of East Texas dry
earlier in the week and allow diurnal thunderstorm development.
The second possible contributing factor could be in the form of a
greater forcing mechanism. The GFS is suggesting an upper-level
shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks through the day on
Wednesday. With the desert high pulling back, this trough would
have the ability to dip further south and produce enough forcing
for a larger-scale system. This is assuming, of course, that the
proper advection is in place to steer this shortwave. With the
PoPs being relatively limited for Wednesday, I am leaning toward
the first scenario being the most likely, but that can always
change with new data.
Despite what happens on Wednesday, the pattern that was in place
at the beginning of the week will be the same until the weekend:
warm with afternoon showers mainly east of I-49. Estimated
temperatures for late in the week look to be slightly cooler than
before, but still remain in the 90s. /57/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the
forecast period ending 06/18Z. Southeast winds up to 10 knots
today to become light and variable tonight. Winds to become
southwest around 5 knots on Sunday. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 96 76 95 / 0 10 10 30
MLU 76 97 74 96 / 0 20 10 40
DEQ 72 93 71 93 / 0 10 0 20
TXK 76 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 20
ELD 74 96 72 93 / 10 20 10 40
TYR 73 93 74 93 / 10 10 0 10
GGG 73 94 74 93 / 0 10 0 20
LFK 72 95 74 93 / 10 10 0 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...05
