la discuss
Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 211807
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1207 PM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday afternoon
or 00z Friday. High and mid clouds will increase across the south
half of our forecast area affecting KHUM, KNEW, KMSY, KNBG amd
possibly KGPT. Some light rain is possible between 06z and 12z
Thursday for these sites but visibility restrictions are
anticipated. 18
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 211743
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1143 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure centered over eastern Arkansas this afternoon will
allow moderate northeasterly to easterly winds to prevail. Mostly
clear skies will continue through the early afternoon with
more dense VFR ceilings moving in from the west by this evening
as an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Scattered
showers are expected to develop around or after midnight,
impacting the I-10 corridor terminals, before quickly coming to an
end before sunrise.
Jones
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1044 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows 1031mb high over NE TX/AR/N MS this morning, with
northeast winds 5-10 mph inland, around 15 knots offshore. This is
keeping rather cool conditions over the region with temperatures
still in the lower to mid 50s. Forecasted afternoon highs in the
lower 60s looks good. Visible satellite imagery showing thin
cirrus streaming overhead, with the lower/mid level OVC layer over
C/S TX slowly moving northeastward. This is expected to spread
over SE TX later this afternoon, and the remainder of LA this
evening with light rain developing. Ongoing forecast has this, no
updates needed.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/
DISCUSSION...
For the 11/21/18 1200 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail through the period amid increasing high
and mid level cloud cover that will yield areas of rain at KBPT
and KLCH this evening into the overnight period. TEMPO MVFR VSBY
restrictions for BR at KAEX for the first couple hours of the
forecast.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/
SYNOPSIS...
Sfc analysis shows high pres centered acrs NE TX/S AR/N LA. This
was providing a light northeast flow over the area, with
temperatures as of 4 AM mainly in the lower 40s with a few spots
into the 30s.
Meanwhile, recent WV imagery and UA analysis shows a split-flow
regime over much of the CONUS west of the Mississippi, with zonal
flow acrs TX into LA ahead of a weak shortwave crossing the SW.
Moisture within the southern branch was streaming acrs old Mexico
into the area, resulting in the passage of some thin CI over the
region.
24
DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is expected today, but clouds will begin to increase
over the region from west to east late this aftn into the evening
as the shortwave over the SW US approaches the area. Lift
provided by the approaching disturbance will allow showers to
increase and spread northeast into the area overnight. Some
cyclogenesis will take place along the western end of an old
frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico, but these features are
expected to remain well offshore, and this will keep a cooler and
more stable airmass in the lower levels. There have been few
changes from the scenario noted yesterday morning, as moisture
profiles over the area continue to look fairly modest with precip
water values peaking near the seasonal average (around 0.8 inches)
acrs much of the area, with higher values of an inch or more
noted offshore. In addition, elevated instability will be minimal,
and the risk for tstms will be low although an isolated clap of
thunder cannot be ruled out for areas south of I-10 in Jefferson
County as well as far SW LA. The highest rain chcs will also be
confined to areas south of I-10, with rain chcs quickly tapering
off Thanksgiving morning as the disturbance quickly exits to the
east.
Temperatures will be near or slightly cooler than normal with
highs around 60 today and into the lower 60s Thursday. Overnight
lows will fall into the lower and middle 40s.
The progressive pattern aloft will keep things fairly active
through the weekend as a series of disturbances and associated
fronts move through the area. The first of these will arrive on
Friday. This shortwave will cross TX and interact with the sfc
low/trough off the southern TX coast, lifting it toward the area
during the day Friday. This will help to bring better moisture
over the area. Instability will likewise increase with the
approach of the sfc low, but with the eastward track of the low
expected to remain near the coast, inland penetration of the warm
sector will be minimal, and thus instability and resulting tstms
should remain elevated. This system will quickly move east with
rain ending Friday night and dry weather expected for Saturday.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend as southerly
winds develop during the day Saturday in response to lower pres
developing over the high plains.
A stronger system will emerge over the cntl high plains Saturday
night, prompting cyclogenesis over the TX/OK panhandles. This
system will shift eastward through the day Sunday, sweeping a cold
front through the area as the sfc low lifts acrs the mid-MS
Valley. Best dynamics should stay north of the area, and deeper
moisture return will be delayed prior to the arrival of the front.
Thus, the best chcs for showers and isolated storms will be
limited to just offshore into southern portions of Acadiana.
Rain chcs will come to an end Sunday evening as cool high pres
settles southward into the area. With west to northwest flow
developing behind the upper trough, dry weather is expected to
for early next week. Temperatures will be cool with overnight lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs in the 50s Monday and
Tuesday.
24
MARINE...
Lt to modt northeast winds can be expected through Thursday.
Winds will strengthen slightly overnight, with exercise caution
expected over the outer coastal waters. Winds will shift east then
briefly southeast on Friday as low pres over the western Gulf
moves east over the coastal waters. Offshore flow will resume
Friday night into early Saturday behind the low, with onshore
flow again developing during the day Saturday as low pres deepens
over the southern plains. A series of upper level disturbances
will bring a chance for showers on Wednesday night into early
Thursday, and again on Friday. Offshore is expected by late Sunday
with the passage of the next strong cold front.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 39 63 44 63 / 20 0 10 80
LCH 45 63 49 66 / 40 10 10 70
LFT 45 64 48 68 / 30 10 10 80
BPT 47 63 52 68 / 40 10 10 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from 6 PM CST this evening through
late tonight for GMZ470-472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...66
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 211928
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
128 PM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/
Weak shortwave movg across the TX Panhandle this aftn will
approach our region later this aftn/evening. With high pressure
still firmly anchored over the region, little to no low level
moisture will be available to generate convection. Latest model
runs indicate that some light shwrs could develop across our Deep
E TX/W Central LA areas, so have maintained the ongoing PoP fcst,
with all other areas remaining dry.
Unseasonably cool airmass will remain in place through
Thanksgiving Day, and any overnight shwrs will quickly push e of
our area, leaving clearing skies. Sfc ridge to migrate ewd during
the latter half of Thursday, as sly flow returns ahead of an
ejecting trof. Subsequent increasing moisture/WAA will help hold
our temps up in the 40s Thursday night. /12/
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/
During Friday, expect a weak cold front to traverse the region along
with a week short wave trough aloft to produce SCT showers and even
isolated TSTMS. This front will push SE to the Gulf Coast through
Saturday morning with a dry and stable airmass in its wake for this
upcoming holiday weekend.
Expect zonal flow aloft through the final work week of November as
the wintertime subtropical jet appears to be developing early this
season across the SRN U.S. Accordingly, we can expect quiet and dry
weather in fast zonal flow across the region through month's end.
Also this pattern is favorable for precipitation across the western
U.S. and especially in CA where rain is certainly needed. /VIII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1134 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd, despite a
passing upper level disturbance. Aside from some thickening mid
and high clouds, KLFK may see a pd of light rain with no category
reductions expected. Otherwise, winds will continue generally out
of the e at around 5 kts during the daylight hours today and
Thanksgiving Day, but will diminish to near-calm overnight
tonight. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 37 61 46 61 / 10 0 10 60
MLU 37 61 44 61 / 0 0 0 80
DEQ 34 59 43 57 / 0 0 10 70
TXK 35 60 44 58 / 0 0 10 60
ELD 34 60 43 59 / 0 0 10 80
TYR 38 60 47 64 / 10 0 10 50
GGG 36 60 46 63 / 10 0 10 60
LFK 40 61 48 66 / 40 0 10 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
12/08
