ky discuss
Office: JKL
FXUS63 KJKL 270025 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Becoming very warm this weekend and lasting at least through the
middle of next week.
- Showers and thunderstorms may occur at times during the upcoming
workweek, with the highest probability being Monday night and
Tuesday as an upper level disturbance and dying cold front
approach.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure to the west of the state
while a warm front from this is lifting through eastern Kentucky
this evening. This boundary has brought plenty of clouds and a few
light showers to the area though with a weakening trend noted as
the showers slip out of the state over the next hour or so.
Currently, temperatures are fairly uniform in the low to mid 60s
for most. Meanwhile, amid generally southeast winds of 5 to 10
mph, dewpoints are running in the mid to upper 50s. Have updated
the forecast to fine tune the ending of the showers through the
rest of the evening as well as to include the current obs and
trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
A poorly defined warm front was situated to our southwest this
afternoon. A band of clouds and showers was occurring in the
isentropic lift northeast of the boundary. The showers were
persistent as they moved into our southern counties and are still
ongoing. However, models still show them diminishing later today
and early this evening as the band continues to shift northeast.
Will look for them to dry up by around 10 pm.
In the bigger picture, the warm front over TN extends northwest to
a deep, stacked low pressure system over NE. Sprawling high
pressure was centered off the East Coast. Aloft, ridging extends
from eastern Ontario south to the eastern gulf. The NE low will
move slowly northeast into Ontario by late Saturday, while another
low pressure system develops over KS on Saturday and Saturday
night. The first low will pull the warm front further north,
placing us in the warm sector by Saturday. The large pressure
gradient between the western Atlantic high and the plains/Midwest
lows will bring us persistent southerly low level flow. However,
the best moisture feed off the gulf will be to our west and
northwest, and ridging aloft will be slow to budge. That being the
case, there won't be any significant feature to focus precip for
our area once the warm front shifts to our north, and dry weather
is forecast for Saturday and Saturday night. A warm air mass in
place beneath ridging aloft will result in high temperatures
nearing 80 for our warmest locations on Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
An active pattern in store in the extended period of the forecast
for residents of eastern Kentucky, as a series of weather systems
move across the eastern half of the nation. The general upper level
flow pattern will start off with a broad trough of low pressure
aloft in place over the western half of the CONUS early Sunday,
stretching from the west coast eastward into the Great Plains.
Another trough is forecast to be moving away from the east coast and
out into the Atlantic Ocean to start things off, with ridging
building northward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and up the
eastern seaboard into southern New England. Our first rounds of
showers and storms will begins moving into our area late Monday
afternoon into early Monday evening, as a trough of surface low
pressure begins ejecting northeastward out of the north central
Plains, ahead of the eastward moving upper trough. The cold front
trailing south from the surface low will begin pushing through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday night and Tuesday. Even though the
surface feature will be weakening, there should still be enough
instability, lift, and moisture present to fire widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms off along and ahead of the advancing
surface front to begin the week. Based on the latest runs of the GFS
and ECMWF models, our highest precipitation probabilities should
occur from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon, as the
cold front is passing through.
Showers and a few storms will linger behind the departed front
Tuesday night, as moisture and lift left over in the wake of the
upper low should be just enough to keep convection going for a bit.
Based on current model trends, we will not see much of a break in
the rain, as a second trough of low pressure aloft will be pushing
onshore in the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday, and will be moving
our way into the middle of the week. As the upper system moves east
and strengthens, another area of low pressure is expected to form
over the northern Plains, and will be our weather maker from mid-
week onward. This second low is forecast to intensify and then
nearly stall our over south central Canada on Wednesday. As this
trough spins its wheels just north of the border, another weaker
area of low pressure is forecast to take shape over the western
slopes of the Rocky's. As these two systems moves east, their energy
will phase a bit, and will make for another period of wet weather
that will first begin on Wednesday, and will last heading into the
upcoming weekend. Several rounds of showers and storms are expected
to move through the area during this time, as several pulses of
energy aloft rotate around the southern Canada trough. A few weak
frontal boundaries will also move through our are, further enhancing
rain chances. Based on current forecast soundings, there should be
enough instability present, day and night, to keep thunderstorms
rolling to finish out the extended.
With persistent and increasing southerly and southwesterly flow
expected across the area, plenty of warm, moisture Gulf of Mexico
air will be advecting into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys all week,
and will allow for an extended period of well above normal
temperatures for eastern Kentucky. Daily highs should max out in the
upper 70s to mid 80s until Friday, when cooler air may finally
filter in, giving way to highs in the low to mid 70s for our area.
No weather concerns of note at this time, but we will keep a close
eye on convective potential for later this week and see if any
trends develop that could indicate the potential for strong
thunderstorms for our area. We may also see very modest ridge valley
temperature differences Sunday night and again Tuesday night, as
skies briefly clear and winds become very light.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period, but isolated to
scattered showers and low end VFR ceilings will affect the region
for a time this evening. During the night, low level flow will
increase, particularly just off the surface. This raises concerns
for low level wind shear overnight from the south at up to 45 kts
into Saturday morning. Sfc winds will be generally from the
south to southeast at less than 10 kts tonight and up to 15 kts
from the south during the day, Saturday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Office: LMK
FXUS63 KLMK 270137
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
937 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
the southwest at times.
* Rain chances return early next week, but above normal
temperatures persist.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Looking for another quiet evening across the region with mild lows
only dropping into the low and mid 60s for most under steady SE
winds and broken mid to upper clouds. A few gusts up in the 20
to 25 mph range are possible at times overnight. Have backed off
the pops in our NW a bit as time heights really don't show much
saturation in the lower half of the column. Nevertheless, will
still carry a small chance of a shower mainly across southern IN
overnight, where PWATs are a little higher (moisture is a
little deeper). Outside of that, no other changes planned to the
forecast at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Currently... Along surface troughing, a thin line of showers is
moving through the region. Outside of the showers, there are
scattered to broken mid-level clouds streaming overhead and
temperatures in the upper 60s and mid 70s.
Tonight... As the low pressure system over the central Plains
strengthens and propagates northeastward, pressure gradients will
tighten over the Ohio Valley. The tightening gradients will lead to
breezy sustained winds of 10-14mph and gusting up to 25mph. The warm
front associated with this system will sweep through the region in
the overnight hours, shifting winds to a southerly direction and
allowing weak moisture advection. A 45-50kt LLJ will meander into
the region supporting some light, dissipating showers along and east
of I-65 in the early morning hours. Low temperatures will be in the
low-mid 60s.
Saturday... The low pressure system will quickly move over the Great
Lakes region, pulling most of the precipitation to the north of the
region. Light showers will still be possible until the afternoon
over southern Indiana. Gradient winds will continue to strengthen
bringing breezy winds around 12-15mph and gusting up to 30mph. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy, with some brief breaks towards the late
afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s and
low 80s. Dew points will be in the upper 50s and low 60s, rendering
Saturday a muggy day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Saturday night into Sunday continue to look dry as upper level
ridging promotes subsidence aloft and surface fields lack any sort
of lifting mechanism. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will
continue, particularly Sunday afternoon as the lower boundary layer
mixes out. Gusts will likely be in the 20 to 30mph range during the
day.
A slow moving frontal boundary will then begin to push toward the
region on Monday before "fizzling" out with eastward extent. Showers
and perhaps a few storms will be possible near the frontal boundary,
and depending on how slow the frontal boundary progresses,
precipitation could linger into Tuesday. There should be some brief
drying behind the front before more active weather arrives by
midweek ahead of another frontal boundary. We could see a couple
rounds of showers/storms with this particular setup as the frontal
boundary will likely be stalled from the Great Lakes region into the
southern Plains before a shortwave ejects a low into the Plains and
"kicks" everything eastward toward the end of the week. Model
members and their respective ensembles have a bit of spread with the
timing of features and/or rain and storm chances, so confidence in
the forecast details as well as any severe weather potential for
this timeframe remain low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Things are dry and VFR across the area at this hour, and expect that
to continue through the overnight. Look for mid to high clouds with
some virga also possible at times. Steady to occasionally gusty SE
winds will gradually veer to SSE later tonight. A strong low level
jet around 45 knots at 2 K feet will overspread the region just
before Midnight, and given around 30 degree of directional shear in
addition to the speed shear we are just meeting LLWS criteria.
LLWS diminishes around sunrise with stronger S to SSW wind taking
hold around 10 to 20 mph, occasionally gusting 20 to 30 mph.
Continued mid to high clouds are expected, with perhaps a few
morning very light showers around HNB. Not expecting enough impact,
if at all, to mention attm.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...BJS
Office: PAH
FXUS63 KPAH 262359
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple chances of rain and storms forecast through next week
with the most widespread rains expected late Sunday through
Monday evening.
- Severe storms are possible mainly over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois late this afternoon into tonight and again
late Sunday into Sunday night.
- South winds will gust up to 30 mph Saturday, and 30-40 mph
Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
As of this afternoon an upper level shortwave was evident in WV
imagery moving into the northern plains while a surface low was
moving into NE. A warm front extends from this low across E KS,
C MO, and into portions of W KY. Visible imagery shows
extensive clearing has taken place across W KY and W TN. This
area seems to have a pocket of dry air aloft which should keep
things clear this afternoon, albeit the increasing instability.
The line of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was located
across south central MO this morning has fallen apart as it
moved away from better forcing parked to the west. Additional
development was noted across NW AR and SW MO that is lifting
northeast. This seems to be resolved well in the CAMs.
Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms may be possible
this afternoon and overnight mainly across SE MO and southern
IL. The main threat from this activity would be damaging winds
with the probability of strong/severe storms still low given
that the better forcing is well west and meager instability.
Another disturbance and associated low pressure center will develop
across the plains this weekend and will gradually move north into
the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. A strengthening pressure
gradient between the low situated in the plains, and a surface high
off the East Coast will bring breezy south winds this weekend. A
boundary is expected to move through the Quad State late Sunday into
Monday and will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
area. At this time, the warm sector airmass looks to be
characterized by meager instability. The southern end of an h50
jet max will likely bring increasing bulk shear through the
region although this jet core will be lifting out rather
quickly. Thus, the environment doesn't look overly impressive
and favorable for severe weather across our area, and the
current thinking remains the same that a line of storms will
likely be moving through the region with a weakening trend. A
damaging wind risk seems possible with any stronger convection.
Heavy rains, especially in any convection, will be possible as
the system moves through with PWAT values near 1.50 inches. Not
expected any widespread flooding issues given the progressive
nature of this system.
Guidance favors a more zonal upper level pattern taking shape
Tuesday through Thursday. Additionally, we will remain a southerly
flow regime through much of the week favoring a moist and warm
airmass with temperatures climbing into the 80's. This pattern
suggests chances of showers and storms at times which the NBM has a
good handle on. With that said, models haven't been in solid
agreement over the past few days leading to lower confidence during
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
At KCGI/KMVN, VFR conditions with scattered shra/isolated tsra
between 02z-09z. KCGI could again see some isolated to scattered
shra/tsra between 15z-21z. MVFR vsbys possible with storms. At
KPAH, VFR conditions expected with isolated/scattered shra
possible between 06z-14z. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions will be VFR
with potential LLWS between 05z-14z at 020/19040kt. At all
sites, surface winds will be from the south to southeast at
7-14kts with gusts of 18-23kts, increasing to 10-20kts with
gusts around 25 kts after 13z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...RST
