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FXUS63 KICT 202347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Cold air has moved in across the entire state of Kansas.
This has created a mess of a situation in southeast Kansas with a
mixture of precipitation including freezing rain and sleet. Ice
accumulations combined with the winds have caused broken branches
and even downed powerlines for the far southeast portion of the
state. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6PM and
precipitation is expected to complete exit the far corner by 9PM.
There has been a clearing in the cloud cover gradually as the wave
moves out of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

1) Precipitation types
2) Precipitation chances
3) Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wed night

As mentioned in the synopsis section, freezing rain and sleet have
made for a not so pleasant day in southeast Kansas. As the trough
continues to push out of the area, the chances for precipitation
are going to diminish for the rest of the afternoon into the
evening hours. Additional ice accumulations are possible in that
corner of the state. Roads will become slippery as the sun goes
down and the temperatures drop for areas where they have not
become so already. A Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect
until 6 PM in southeast Kansas. Please see the advisory for more
information.

Two words could describe this forecast: complicated and messy. The
main trough is staying along the Rockies into the Baja. This
system is going to continue to send waves through much of the
forecast. There is a wave across Texas that is going to move
north. Another round of a mixed bag of precipitation is
anticipated as this system moves through. There is decent
associated isentropic lift. Again the question is how warm will
the temperatures be aloft. If you believe the NAM, this would
suggest a warmer layer with 850mb temperatures right around 0 in
south central Kansas. Then there is the GFS showing a cooler warm
layer especially after midnight when the freezing line is pushed
further east. Surface temperatures are going to be in the 20s for
most of the area.

Precipitation types were very challenging because of these
differences beginning primarily Wednesday evening into early
Thursday. The current blend shows primarily a mixture of freezing
rain and sleet. It is possible with the cooler solutions that
there could be sleet once more for much of south central Kansas.
Models are also hinting at various amounts for the quantitative
precipitation forecast (qpf) which plays a factor in to the
potential ice accumulations. The trend is towards a higher amount
of precipitation which would be nice especially for south central
Kansas; however, the freezing rain precipitation type is certainly
not desired. Expectations for the current qpf values would lead
to ice accumulations of around a tenth to possibly two tenths of
an inch based on a blend of models and WPC guidance. On Wednesday
night, the winds will be lighter than today which should help
diminish the possible damage to the powerlines and tree branches.
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued from the mid afternoon on
Wednesday to Thursday morning given the potential situation as
highlighted above.

Chances of precipitation are essentially in most of the forecast. On
Thursday afternoon, it is expected that there will be a transition
to rain instead of the mix for a period in time. Temperatures are
the key especially given the surface from the first part of the day.
High temperatures are anticipated to rise above freezing in the
afternoon. Stay tuned for updates as this evolving forecast is
going to change as further model guidance is provided.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A trough axis will move through on Saturday. There will be another
round of potential freezing rain and sleet on Friday night into
early Saturday morning in central Kansas. Thankfully the rest of the
county warning area is anticipated to stay warm enough to keep the
precipitation in the liquid variety. A return to temperatures in the
50s for the weekend is certainly going to feel nice after this week.
Discrepancies exist in the extended or last days of the forecast
period with the GFS keeping the active pattern. It is too early in
the forecast to know if anything will happen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Departing system over the Ozarks will lead to a few more hours of
MVFR cigs for the KCNU taf. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected
for the 18-24 hours for most locations as a ridge of high pressure
moves across the northern plains.

The VFR conditions will be short lived, as low level moisture begins
to rapidly increase across the southern plains by Wed afternoon. So
expect to see diminishing aviation conditions by Wed evening, which
is out of the breath of this taf issuance, but will likely be
handled starting with the 06z issuance.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Multiple rounds of precipitation essentially diminish fire weather
concerns in this forecast. Accumulations will certainly help the
dry conditions across the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    18  32  24  36 /  10  30  70  50
Hutchinson      15  31  21  35 /   0  20  60  40
Newton          15  32  22  35 /   0  20  70  40
ElDorado        17  32  24  37 /   0  20  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   20  31  26  38 /  10  30  80  60
Russell          8  29  18  33 /   0  10  30  20
Great Bend      10  29  18  34 /   0  10  30  20
Salina          12  31  21  35 /   0  10  50  40
McPherson       14  31  21  34 /   0  20  60  40
Coffeyville     24  36  29  45 /  30  20  70  60
Chanute         22  34  27  41 /  20  20  70  60
Iola            20  34  27  40 /  20  10  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    23  35  29  44 /  30  20  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for KSZ050>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ071-
072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...VJP



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 202305 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 405 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 Main issues will be low temperatures tonight and wind chill temperatures through Wednesday morning. Temperatures struggled to climb very much with the coldest highs in the northwest half where the snowfield is located. Surface ridge moves in during the night so will have a lengthy period of little to no winds and low dewpoints. A caveat is the model output showing a batch of mid and high level moisture. Based on satellite trends, this is looking overdone. So am going to take the coldest guidance and drop of a few degrees with the northwest half having subzero readings. The winds will not be very strong but the combination of the wind speeds and temperatures I have in there is yield wind chill temperatures near to or colder than advisory criteria. So will be hoisting a wind chill advisory over the northwest half from mid evening tonight to mid morning Wednesday. Look to a decent amount of sun. Surface will begin moving off to the east which will bring in recycled cold air. However, it will be blowing off of dry ground. The guidance blend was pretty cold, and went with. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 Southwest upper level flow will persist through Saturday when a stronger short wave trough will move through, then dry westerly flow behind the trough. Currently the upper level short wave trough looks to move through quick enough Friday night and Saturday to produce only a couple inches of snow. However theta-e lapse rates will be near or below 0 in the snowfall. If this continues to be the case by the time Friday night/Saturday arrive, snowfall amounts will need be to increased, despite the snow moving through fairly quickly. Aside from the first part of the weekend, the other timeframe of interest will be Wednesday night. Currently the forecast is dry for this night. However latest data suggests the potential for freezing drizzle. There are two factors that greatly limit confidence of freezing drizzle occurring. The first is the small amount of lift that occurs during the night. The freezing drizzle event in late December had more lift than Wednesday night, which is what lowers confidence of this occurring. However with a saturated environment above the surface, not much lift is needed to create drizzle. So have moderate confidence there will be enough lift to form freezing drizzle. Currently the best lift/saturation is east of Highway 83. The second factor limiting confidence is the saturated layer is very close to the -10C line, so almost cold enough to support snow instead of drizzle. If the saturated layer deepens further, or cools more, the odds of snow forming instead of drizzle go up. Confidence of precipitation type for Wednesday night, should any occur, is low. Temperatures will warm during the period, with the warmest day on Tuesday as the jet stream slides slightly further north. However, looking out past the forecast period, more cold air looks likely for the latter half of next week as an upper level short wave trough deepens over the Rockies early in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 405 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Both terminals will see variable winds 5kts or less early this evening through mid morning Wednesday then an increasing southeast wind approaching 11kts through the rest of the period. Clouds increase across both terminals tonight then again during the day Wednesday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027. CO...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Wednesday for COZ090>092. NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...99
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 202327 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 527 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 By mid-afternoon, the back-edge of the freezing rain was finally exiting the outlook area as the system progressed into Missouri. Surface high pressure was diving into the central U.S. behind this exiting system, with visible satellite imagery showing clearing skies extending into central KS as of 21Z. This scattering cloud cover will allow for decent radiational cooling overnight with lows dropping into the teens. These temperatures combined with northerly winds continuing to gust 15 to 20 mph overnight will cause Wednesday morning wind chill values to range from -5 to +5. With these cold conditions in place, there is the potential for some slick road conditions overnight into Wednesday morning on any untreated surfaces from today's freezing rain/sleet event. On Wednesday, focus shifts to an embedded shortwave that models show near the Texas panhandle Wednesday morning and lifting northeastward into the outlook area by late afternoon/early evening. This advancing shortwave will cause mid-level clouds to stream over the area through the day, thus limiting the amount of diurnal heating with high temperatures only reaching into the low 30s. While models show much of the precipitation lifting northward into the outlook area by Wednesday evening, there is a slight chance for some light snow to move into portions of east central KS as early as late Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Another messy weather pattern looks likely Wednesday night through Friday morning with a mix of precipitation anticipated. By Thursday evening, a main mid-level trough will be located over the Central Great Basin while a lead shortwave moves across northeast Kansas bringing a potential for snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Soundings are consistent with a warm-nose setting up across east central Kansas. With this nose, the NAM has consistently been the warmest with 850mb temperatures near +7C, while the GFS comes in slightly cooler with temperatures at +2C. This will make a difference in whether freezing rain or more sleet is seen in areas south and east of I-35. North of this line, the NAM is still showing a slight warm nose making some mixed precipition possible, while the GFS indicates all areas will be cold enough for snow only. Late Wednesday night into early Thursday mornings, soundings indicate a loss of ice in the cloud, although isentropic upglide looks to continue across much of the area leading to the potential for freezing drizzle across the area much of Thursday morning. As for accumulations during this time, models indicate a higher band of QPF setting up somewhere across the area. For now, ice accumulations near a tenth of an inch or slightly higher look most likely in areas of east central Kansas through Thursday morning. With snow, a quick hit of an inch to two inches is possible across areas north and west of I- 35. This could be impacted significantly if more sleet or freezing rain is seen than currently expected. Either way, difficult travel is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures Thursday afternoon rise into upper 30s with the exception of north central Kansas and areas near the Kansas Nebraska boarder that linger near or below freezing. Any freezing drizzle will transition back to drizzle or rain by the afternoon as another mid-level shortwave approaches the area with the exception of colder areas mentioned earlier with freezing drizzle or freezing rain may linger on through the day. Overnight, the GFS is a bit warmer with temperatures than the NAM although they all seems to lose ice in the cloud around 03Z. After this time, went with either drizzle or freezing drizzle through the night on Friday before the system finally clears. During this time, ice accumulations look to be minor. From here, models diverge slightly but another system looks to enter the area Friday night, exiting by early Sunday morning. The ECMWF indicates a more broad trough while the GFS shows a compact negatively tilted trough traversing the area. Dry conditions look to remain the rest of the period with temperatures back up into the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 MVFR ceilings are expected at TOP/FOE until around 04z to 06z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for KSZ054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Heller AVIATION...Sanders
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 202359 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 559 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 ...Updated for aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 A cold dome of high pressure will build into western Kansas overnight as an upper level trough begins to establish itself over the Southwest United States. A weak upper level disturbance embedded in the developing southwesterly flow over the Rockies will cross the Western High Plains early tonight and bring some increasing clouds, however based on the light winds and period of clear conditions early Wednesday morning will favor undercutting the coldest guidance for lows tonight, especially east and south of Dodge City where less clouds are anticipated. Along with the increasing cloud cover there could even be a few flurries during the overnight but should anything develop it will be very light and not accumulate. Moisture and lift will be increasing during the afternoon on Wednesday based on the air 850mb moisture and warm air advection along with isentropic lift in the 285 to i295 level. The better moisture and lift late day will be near and east/southeast of Dodge City given the latest NAM and GFS so will retain mention of precipitation developing in this area through the late day. This precipitation may begin as snow but as the warm air advection improves late day/early Wednesday night the precipitation is expected to change over to freezing rain. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 For Wednesday night..The GFS and NAM continues to spread this moisture and lift westward with even the Garden City model soundings indicating a moist layer deep enough for some very light precipitation by 12z Thursday. Temperature profiles Wednesday night indicating more of a freezing drizzle/freezing rain precipitation type during the overnight period. The chance for this wintry mix of precipitation will continue until the upper level trough crosses western Kansas which currently is forecast to occur early Thursday. At this time the area most favorable for ice accumulations along with even some minor snow accumulations will be east and south of Dodge City so will be issuing a winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle and freezing rain along and east of highway 183 Wednesday night. If traveling across western or central Kansas Wednesday night you will want to stay up to date with the latest weather information. Would not be surprised to have a few slick spots developing further west given the potential for freezing drizzle development on Thursday further west and the duration of these chances of this light precipitation. In the later periods the models remain in good agreement with an upper level trough remaining nearly stationary over the western United States through late week. Another upper level wave is forecast to rotate around the base of this upper level system and move out into the central plains late week as the cold dome of high pressure slowly crosses the Central and Northern Plains. Increasing clouds along with even a chance for precipitation will once again be possible from our next upper level systems later this week and with some cool air remaining near the surface this precipitation chance may be in the form of a wintry mix for some locations in northern Kansas. Precipitation amounts may not be high but the precipitation type warrants later shifts to monitor this event should the lower levels end up being cooler than what the latest models suggest. The Western United States upper low will weaken as it moves east toward the Central Plains over the weekend, however ensembles indicated differences on how this will occur. Still given these differences it appears that our surface boundary in the Texas Panhandle will begin to lift north across western Kansas which should result in some warmer, more seasonal, temperatures. There will also be a chance for precipitation as well. Once this upper level trough crosses the Central Plains late this weekend another shot of colder air will return to western Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Clear skies can be expected through 10z as arctic high pressure builds in. Winds are already diminishing to 10-12 kts. However, toward morning, low to mid level warm advection will develop, with cloud developing AOA080 and then slowly lowering to MVFR during the day. Light snow may develop as far west as KDDC or even KGCK by 21z and then change to light freezing drizzle at KDDC and KHYS well after the TAF period ends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 8 25 18 36 / 0 10 20 30 GCK 6 27 17 38 / 0 0 10 20 EHA 11 28 18 48 / 0 10 0 10 LBL 11 26 17 42 / 0 10 10 20 HYS 7 28 16 32 / 0 10 20 20 P28 12 28 22 35 / 0 40 60 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for KSZ066-079>081-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Finch