ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 151136
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
536 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible this morning, especially across the Flint Hills
- Continued above normal temperatures
- Most dry conditions are expected into early next week; rain
chances return for the mid to latter portions of next week&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
As of 230 AM Saturday morning, zonal midlevel has emerged across the
central Plains with troughing across the northern Plains and ridging
across southern Plains. An attendant surface trough extends from
northern MN through portions of west-central KS. A notable
temperature gradient exists across the state with temperatures in
the 40s behind the trough across far western KS to near 60 across
southeast KS. The main concern through the short term is fog
formation through mid-morning. The most likely area for fog
development is across the Flint Hills where dew point
depressions are the smallest (2-3 degrees) and wind speeds are
the lightest (less than 5 mph). This axis aligns well with the
latest HREF probabilities for visibilities less than a half of
a mile (40-50%). Any lingering fog will scatter by mid-morning
as the aforementioned surface trough slides across central and
eastern KS. Winds will shift to the northwest with gusts near 20
mph. Despite the northwesterly, little airmass modification is
expected with 850 mb temperatures decreasing only 1-3 degrees C.
As a result, another afternoon with unseasonably warm
temperatures as highs remain the 70s.
Transitioning into tonight and Sunday, an area of surface high
pressure will progress into central and eastern KS. Light winds and
clear skies are expected with its arrival. Overnight lows will range
from the low to mid 40s. The area of high pressure will slide east
of the area Sunday afternoon, allowing southerly flow to return with
high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to near 70. A few rain
showers cannot be entirely ruled out very late Sunday night into
Monday as a compact shortwave trough, ejects from the southwest US
into the Plains. Though the strongest baroclinic zone will setup
across northern KS, NE, and into MO/IA. This unfortunately keeps the
best rain chances north and east of the forecast area. The best
chances for widespread rainfall continue to be tied to a stronger
midlevel trough passage for the mid and latter portions of next
week. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Patchy fog continues to impact portions of south-central KS and
the Flint Hills. To this point, the only terminal impacted has
been ICT with occasional periods of VSBY as low as 2SM. This
will continue to be the case through 14-15Z. A weak cold front
will move through the terminals later this morning, shifting
winds to the north at 10-15 kt. Wind speeds will go light (less
than 6 kt) and variable near 00Z this evening.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 150900
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Return to more seasonable as the work
week goes on.
- Multiple chances at precipitation next week with the first
being Monday morning across northwest portions of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025
Synoptic Overview: An upper level trough traversing the
Northern Plains this morning will progress east across the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes this afternoon.. temporarily
suppressing/flattening an upper level ridge over the central
CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low located offshore the southern
Pacific Coast at 06 UTC this morning will undergo a complex
evolution (splitting into two distinct features) after
meandering ashore central-southern California late this aft-
eve.. the first [feature] of which is progged to gradually lift
northward into the Great Basin (NV-ID) Sun-Sun night.. and the
second [feature] of which is progged to lift ENE-NE across the
Desert Southwest/4-Corners (Sun) and central Rockies (Sun
night).
Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence in the wake of the
progressive trough traversing the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest will drive a modest (~1015 mb) inverted surface ridge
southward into the Central Plains this morning, the leading edge
of which will manifest as a northerly surface wind shift and
effective cold frontal passage aloft (1000 to 2500 ft AGL).
Expect 850 mb temperatures ~14-19C at 21 UTC this afternoon
(compared to 20C at 21 UTC Friday), yielding cooler (albeit
still above-normal) highs in the lower 70's.. and overnight lows
in the mid 30's to lower 40's. Virtually all guidance indicates
that 30-40 knot northerly low-level (850 mb) flow initially
accompanying the 850 mb front will rapidly and substantially
weaken by mid-late morning (16-18 UTC) -- and that surface winds
may (perhaps) gust to 15-25 mph for a brief period prior to
weakening and becoming variable this afternoon.
Sun-Sun night: Downstream of the complex cut-off low over the
Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and.. in the wake of
the recently departed progressive trough (traversing the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes today).. the central CONUS ridge
will rebound/amplify and a low-level southerly return flow
regime will ensue, as modest high pressure slowly shifts east
toward the MS River Valley and a surface trough develops in the
lee of the Rockies (from NM to MT). Expect clear skies and
breezy (~15-25 mph) SSE-SE winds.. with highs similar-to, albeit
a few degrees cooler than, today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025
Starting the extended period Monday morning a surface low is
forecast to be in place across northeast Colorado bringing the
potential for light rain across northwestern portions of the
area. Due to wet bulb zero temperatures remaining warm would be
surprised at this point if snow were to occur. GEFS-Mean spread
however still shows quite a bit of discrepancy with the position
of the low as it may end up being a bit further to the east
closer to the Tri-State border area which would make the
precipitation a bit more widespread. The chances of that appears
to be 5-10% at this time. Precipitation chances would end late
morning across the area as the low quickly broadens out as it
moves off to the west. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast on the
backside of the low. The magnitude of how breezy continues to
be worked out with the GFS showing a stronger low which would
lead to wind gusts of 40-50 mph; the NAM is weaker with
negligible winds of 10-20 mph and the ECMWF is in between. The
EC-AIFS however is interestingly similar to the GFS on strength
and positioning which does increase my confidence a bit in the
stronger winds. High temperatures for the day remain forecast in
the 60s.
A continued active pattern is forecast to continue through the
remainder of the extended period with a gradual cooling trend to
more normal temperatures. Guidance continues to show a stronger
system moving towards the area. Unfortunately tons of spread on
positioning and timing remain with ensembles. A further north
system would favor precipitation for the area versus a more cut
off low across the southern Plains would lessen rainfall chances
as the area would be more prone to being dry slotted. Should
rainfall occur with this system it would favor Thursday into
early Friday morning but currently not seeing any potential
hazards. Ensembles have fallen off of the snowfall potential
with this system as well at least for the 00z run of the LREF.
The previous runs did have snowfall potential so will be
interesting to see if this was an anomalous run or not.
Nevertheless confidence is higher in near normal temperatures
and increased cloud cover across the area.
Another system is forecast to follow later in the week in to
the weekend as well reinforcing the near normal temperatures
across the area. Even more spread is still seen ensembles with
positioning and timing.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025
VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000
ft AGL. Light WNW winds will shift to the NNW or N and increase
to 10-15 knots in assoc/w an effective cold frontal passage
within a few hours after sunrise (12-15Z). A brief period of
northerly LLWS (~40 kt at ~2000 ft AGL) is possible a few hours
on either side of sunrise this morning at the McCook terminal.
North winds -may- gust up to ~20 knots for a short period late
this morning.. before weakening and becoming variable during the
early afternoon (by ~20-21Z). Light/variable winds will prevail
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.. shifting
to the SE by sunrise (~12Z) Sun morning, at the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 151044
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
444 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another very warm day is expected today, followed by slightly
cooler but still above average temperatures into early next week.
- Rain chances Monday have lowered (10-25%) with better chances
(30- 50%) coming Wednesday night through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Upper air pattern early this morning consists of one trough centered
over northern Manitoba and another closed low spinning off the coast
of California. This leaves ridging for the south central CONUS, with
our area within more of a zonal flow pattern as the northern stream
trough helps to flatten the ridge over the local area. There's
enough moisture aloft for some high clouds in the region, but there
has been just enough clearing at times for some patchy ground fog in
the typical low-lying spots this morning, so expect that to be the
case through sunrise. At the surface, low pressure is centered in
Lake Superior with its trough axis extending southwest through IA,
NE, and KS. This system is progged to drag a weak cold front through
the area this morning and should be entirely across the area close
to noon, per CAM guidance. Thanks to a stout inversion aloft and
decent mixing of that inversion through the BL, we shouldn't feel
much of an effect from the cooler air mass until tonight into
Sunday. Today's highs still are forecast to reach the 70s area-wide,
and little spread in the NBM indicates high confidence in that.
Tonight's lows fall back to the upper 30s to low 40s, followed by
high temperatures in the 60s for Sunday. High pressure slides across
the region to give us plenty of sunshine.
Meanwhile, the southern stream trough is progged to weaken as it
evolves from the closed low over CA to an open wave while traversing
northeastward across the Great Basin into the Rockies. While there
is still some model variability in how far north this system will
track by Monday (the NAM being farthest north), the general
consensus would still track the system north of us with the best
upper support being into Nebraska. Moisture quality is also in
question. The best moisture transport appears to be during the
morning and afternoon, but forecast soundings (other than the NAM)
only show a shallow stratus deck around 3-5kft AGL with drier air
towards the surface. Given the northerly track and questionable
moisture, think the lowering of PoPs to 10-25% (and focusing them
north of I-70) makes sense. High temperatures have trended a bit
warmer for Monday based on the system tracking north as well, with
highs forecast between 60-70 degrees.
The sfc low associated with the Monday system looks to be east of
the area by Tuesday morning, bringing another cold front with it.
This brings temperatures down slightly for Tuesday with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Then for the middle and end of next week,
another amplified trough is progged to traverse across the southwest
CONUS. This one stands the better chance of bringing some rainfall
to the area, though differences in strength and timing of this
trough keep PoPs mostly below 50% between Wednesday night and
Friday. It should also be mentioned that temperature ranges are at
least 10 degrees from Monday onward, lending to lower confidence due
to placement of the warm front with Monday's system and
clouds/precip for later in the week. Temperatures above average for
mid-November are generally favored, but this could change for later
in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Some ground fog has been observed in the river valley at TOP,
and also briefly at MHK. Have tempo groups with reduced vis from
this for the first couple of hours in the period; otherwise
expect VFR conditions outside of this. A cold front will switch
winds to the north later in the morning, and they should increase
above 10 kts for a few hours into the afternoon. Lighter winds
commence by late afternoon for the remainder of the period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Updated at 327 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Record High Forecast High
Nov 15
Topeka 78 (1887, 1899, 1950) 74
Concordia 77 (1887, 1952) 72
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 151025
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
425 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold front this morning shifting winds to the north with a second
weak cold front Monday
- Dry conditions are expected through at least the mid part of next
week
- A stronger storm system looks to bring an increase in
precipitation chances late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
The synoptic pattern throughout the forecast will consist of an
upper level trough moving through the Northern Plains today with a
ridge of high pressure above the Central Plains and Southern Plains
through this weekend. A shortwave trough will then move through the
area early next week with a weak ridge rebuilding across the Plains
mid week. A stronger system looks to move through the area by late
week. This pattern will bring mostly dry conditions to western
Kansas through at least the mid part of next week with increased
cloud cover mid to late part of next week.
Towards the surface, a cold front will move through the area this
morning shifting winds to the north. This will be short lived as
winds become light tonight and shift back to the south by tomorrow.
Another weak cold front will move through the area Monday shifting
winds back to the north but once again. Light winds are then
expected through Wednesday night then increase in speed Thursday and
Friday as the next system approaches. The NBM brings a slight chance
of precipitation starting as early as Wednesday with a better chance
Thursday night into Friday. As for temperatures, highs will rise
into the mid to upper 70s today with mid 60s to low 70s tomorrow and
Monday. Highs in the 60s are expected Tuesday and Wednesday before a
cool down into the 50s by late week. Lows will generally be in the
30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 424 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail with some high level cloudiness.
Winds will shift to the north behind a cold front and gust to
over 20 knots at times through mid afternoon.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
