ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 030824
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
224 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder air spreads south for today and Thursday with possible
sprinkles/snow flurries today, no weather impacts expected
- Single digit wind chills for early Thursday morning
- Dry weather slated for several days across the region with warmer
temperatures for early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Current early morning surface analysis shows leading edge of
southward moving polar air approaching South Dakota/Nebraska border.
The polar air will spread into northern/central Kansas by this
afternoon and continue to move south tonight. Areas of semi-
low level saturation ahead and just behind the polar front today
could yield sprinkles/snow flurries, however dry air advection
quickly overtakes this semi-low level moistening during the
night time hours from north to south thus ending the light
precipitation chances. Winds chills will drop into the single
digits by early Thursday morning along with colder daytime highs
in the 30s. Temperatures rebound for Friday and Saturday with
the dry weather pattern continuing and near normal daytime
highs.
Saturday night into Sunday there are vast differences between GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF models with the handling of a upper level wave
diving southeast across the Rockies then ejecting out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas. GEFS ensemble trends does show this 500mb
wave with a slight slow down/deepening. The GFS model is way more
enthusiastic with its 850mb-700mb warm air advection signal
compared to ECMWF/Canadian models. We will continue to watch
model trends for this period since upper level waves that dive
southeast across the Rockies and emerge out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas with a noticeable deepening phase
typically yield interesting winter weather setups for our area.
At this time, it is a low confidence forecast given the vast
model differences. The better precipitation signal for all
models during this period still favors locations east of Kansas
mainly across Missouri. Heading into early next week long range
models are showing a warmer weather pattern with upper level
ridge amplifying over the Rockies and gradually shifting east.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Main aviation concern will be low ceilings as a cold front
pushes through on Wednesday.
Cold front currently stretches from southern MN across SD and is
continuing to push south. Front is expected to move into central
KS around sunrise and the Wichita area around 18z. We should
see ceilings lower as it moves through with MVFR levels likely.
Also not out of the question that we may see some flurries or
sprinkles as the lower levels saturate with the surge of cold
air. Ceilings will start to increase by the early evening hours
area wide with VFR levels expected at all sites by around 03z.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 030825
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
125 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is forecast to develop over mainly western portions
of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday night.
Most of the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern
Colorado and potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.
- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
lead to minor/nuisance travel impacts.
- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
to low teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Over the next few hours, the surface low over Southeast
Colorado into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. As the low
slides east, mid and low level moisture and cooler air will push
south over the Tri-State area during the late evening to
overnight hours and merge with the moisture pushing east across
the Colorado Rockies. Along with the increase in moisture, we
are also looking at an area of vorticity at the 500-700 mb level
primarily along and west of the Colorado border which will
provide forcing and the potential for flurries and light snow
through Wednesday night. There is also a cold front moving south
providing additional frontogenesis after sunrise tomorrow.
We could see flurries as early as 5-6 pm MT in Western portions
of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado with light snow
moving in between 8-10 pm MT off of the Palmer Divide. Majority
of the measurable snow is expected to be in Colorado and the
neighboring Kansas and Nebraska counties. Flurries are possible
across the area given the decent moisture profile. The peak for
snowfall is currently expected to be during the day tomorrow
with snow tapering off from north to south by 12 am MT (Midnight
MT) Wednesday night. The latest forecast has snow amounts up to
2-3" in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO)
counties with the remainder of those counties and the
surrounding ones looking at a trace to 1". There is a chance
that most of the snow falls west of our area over the Palmer
Divide and along the Front Range, resulting in amounts of an 1"
or less for western portions of the area. The western halves of
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60%
chance of seeing an inch of snow or more. There is only a ~40%
chance of localized accumulations of an inch east of the
Colorado border, and the potential rapidly declines farther
east. This snow is expected to be powdery with snow to liquid
ratios of 12-16:1. Some blowing snow is possible late Wednesday
morning to afternoon, but is not expected to be much more than a
nuisance due to the north to northeast winds of 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph.
Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 20s thanks to
the cold air moving in overnight. With the area-wide overcast
skies and falling snow for those out west, temperatures are not
expected to warm up much for highs on Wednesday with
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows could fall
into the teens Wednesday night with potential for wind chills
Thursday morning to be in the single digits to low teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Northwest flow continues over the central plains through the
long term period. Embedded weak waves will bring occasional
chances for light snow/flurries/sprinkles, but impactful
amounts are unlikely. Operational GFS has trended a bit higher
with snow amounts Saturday and Saturday night (1" to 3" from
McCook to Norton), but GFS ensemble average shows less than half
an inch as do the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles. So will wait
and see if this is just a temporary blip from the GFS or a
trend. Precipitation amounts during the remainder of the period
are negligible. Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be near
normal, followed by a slight warming trend Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Normal highs for
the period are in the upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the next 6-12
hours for both KGLD and KMCK. KGLD will be on the eastern edge
of a snowy system. We are expecting to see some snow at KGLD
with the worst of it remaining to the west. However, there is a
30-40% chance stronger snow and breezy conditions impact KGLD
and reduce the airport to IFR. KMCK could see some light snow,
but impacts from the snow itself are not likely at KMCK.
Both TAF sites will be impacted by lowering ceilings. MVFR looks
to dominate for most of the period, but periods of IFR ceilings
are likely. Most likely timings of IFR conditions are shown in
the TAFs. Ceilings will begin lifting tonight from north to
south.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
FXUS63 KGLD 030837
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is forecast to continue over mainly western
portions of the area, lasting into Wednesday night. Most of
the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern Colorado and
potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.
- Patchy blowing snow today in eastern Colorado may lead to
minor/nuisance travel impacts.
- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
to low teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Over the past few hours, we've had virga across the CWA with the
southeastern portions of the CWA likely seeing some flurries reach
the ground. The dry layer near the surface has prevented most of the
snow from reaching the ground. This dry layer is forecast to erode
over the next 12 hours, which will allow more of the snow to reach
the ground.
There are two "waves" of snow moving through the area. The first one
is being forced from pre-frontal 500mb vorticity. This wave is
responsible for the bulk of the overnight virga and stray flurries
east of the Colorado border. This wave is expected to vacate the CWA
by 12-15Z this morning.
The second wave is from the main trough cutting through the region.
This is becoming pretty disorganized system and slowing down as it
comes over the Rockies. This will lead to more prolonged, but lower
PoPs than in previous forecasts. This wave will remain largely over
the western CWA, and will lead to 1-2 inches of snowfall in the
western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. There is a 10-
20% chance of isolated pockets of 3-4 inches on the western fringes
of the CWA. Precipitation is on the CWA border as of 7Z and will
slowly spread to the east over the early morning hours. The ending
time for the snow is a big question and could end as early as 21Z
today or last until about 6-9Z Thursday morning.
Throughout most of the daylight hours, winds gusts are forecast to
be in the 15-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly
in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest.
Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than
1 mile is about 50%. Localized whiteout conditions cannot be ruled
out, but only have a ~10% chance of occurring.
With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected to stay below
freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout
the day, temperatures in the western portions of the CWA will
largely remain under freezing. It appears somewhere between the
eastern Colorado border and KS highway 27 will be the "thaw" line
today as locations to the east will see the above freezing
temperatures.
Tonight, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend from the
Northern Rockies. The speed and intensity of this high will play a
major factor as to how quickly the precipitation end. Based on
current guidance, PoPs will rapidly decline between 0-6Z, lingering
in the southwestern CWA the longest. As the night progresses, the
skies over the CWA will slowly clear out and help temperatures cool.
Once again, the speed and intensity of the high will play a major
factor into low temperatures tonight. Most likely, the northeastern
CWA will see clear skies for a couple hours, allowing temperatures
to drop into the low teens while the rest of the CWA is blanketed
with clouds, leaving temperatures in the upper teens. If the clouds
clear out quicker, more of the area will cool into the low teens,
and potentially upper single digits. Wind chills are currently
forecast to remain in the mid to upper single digits Thursday
morning, but could be near 0 if temperatures drop.
There is a low (<10%) chance of freezing fog early Thursday morning
across the eastern half of the CWA. However, it's likely
temperatures will be too cold to support fog and instead will lead
to very light flurries.
Thursday, the remainder of the clouds will clear out of the area and
temperatures will rebound. Highs are forecast to be around 40 for
most of the CWA. The southwestern CWA is forecast to remain in the
mid 30 as recent snowfall will stunt temperatures.
Overnight Thursday night, a weak shortwave trough will likely move
over the region, but moisture is severely lacking, so additional
precipitation is not expected. Temperatures are forecast to cool to
around 20, save for the southwestern CWA. Again, recent snowfall
will keep temperatures about 5 degrees cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Northwest flow continues over the central plains through the
long term period. Embedded weak waves will bring occasional
chances for light snow/flurries/sprinkles, but impactful
amounts are unlikely. Operational GFS has trended a bit higher
with snow amounts Saturday and Saturday night (1" to 3" from
McCook to Norton), but GFS ensemble average shows less than half
an inch as do the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles. So will wait
and see if this is just a temporary blip from the GFS or a
trend. Precipitation amounts during the remainder of the period
are negligible. Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be near
normal, followed by a slight warming trend Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Normal highs for
the period are in the upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the next 6-12
hours for both KGLD and KMCK. KGLD will be on the eastern edge
of a snowy system. We are expecting to see some snow at KGLD
with the worst of it remaining to the west. However, there is a
30-40% chance stronger snow and breezy conditions impact KGLD
and reduce the airport to IFR. KMCK could see some light snow,
but impacts from the snow itself are not likely at KMCK.
Both TAF sites will be impacted by lowering ceilings. MVFR looks
to dominate for most of the period, but periods of IFR ceilings
are likely. Most likely timings of IFR conditions are shown in
the TAFs. Ceilings will begin lifting tonight from north to
south.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 030904
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Turning sharply colder again by this evening behind a cold front.
Wind chills fall to near zero for Thursday morning.
- A few flurries possible today along the cold front, but not
expecting any accumulation.
- Temperatures warm some for the weekend and early next week,
but stay below average. Only a few low precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
The current upper pattern across the CONUS is dominated by large-
scale troughing, anchored by a deep low over Hudson Bay and strong
ridging over the northeast Pacific. Within the longer-wave trough,
an embedded shortwave is moving over the Central Rockies towards the
Plains. This shortwave is very positively tilted and is deamplifying
as a result of confluent upper flow over the eastern CONUS. As such,
conditions are not favorable for widespread precipitation to
develop. Still, as a sharp cold front steadily presses southward
today, low-level convergence should be enough for a few bands of
flurries to develop. Already seeing one of these bands out towards
central KS, with low-level dry air for now preventing anything from
reaching the ground. Not expecting any accumulation, but can't
completely rule out a brief dusting in a few spots. This would be
most likely south of I-35 in east-central KS this evening as upper
jet dynamics briefly become a bit more supportive.
Temperatures begin to fall by mid-afternoon behind the front,
falling into the teens by late evening. Still not out of the
question that we approach record lows tomorrow morning, as a 1035 mb
high quickly moves overhead. However this would be heavily dependent
on skies clearing and allowing for ideal radiational cooling. If
clouds persist longer towards sunrise, would likely stay a solid 10
degrees warmer than if clouds can clear by 3-4 AM. Temperatures
likely stay in the 20s all day tomorrow as the surface ridge axis
remains nearby.
We'll warm up some to start the weekend, as southerly flow returns
on the back side of the surface high. However persistent northwest
flow and eastern CONUS troughing will still keep us a bit below
average. Within this northwest flow, we're still watching a
shortwave that will move through the midwest late Saturday into
Sunday. The GFS remains a stronger/more amplified outlier, with the
vast majority of other guidance and ensembles keeping the wave
weaker and to our north. This would keep our area dry, or at worst
bring just a few flurries to northeast Kansas. Heading into next
week, some indications are that the eastern Pacific ridge will
expand east towards the Rockies, bringing temperatures back close to
average.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
No significant changes expected from the previous forecast...VFR
conditions through mid- morning tomorrow until FROPA occurs
with a front moving in from north to south across the area.
Behind the front, expect low stratus around or above FL015 to
remain in place through the afternoon. A few gusts accompany
frontal passage lasting into the evening hours before relaxing.
Conditions for LLWS overnight tonight are looking only
marginally strong with winds increasing aloft through FL020.
Since only marginal impacts are anticipated, have not mentioned
in the forecast at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...
Current Record Forecast
Topeka 8, set in 1902 9
Concordia -2, set in 1886 8
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 030804
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
next 7-10 days, through at least December 11th.
- Windy and much colder, with low clouds behind a strong cold
front Wednesday.
- Scattered snow flurries Wednesday night, especially in far
western Kansas. Minor snow accumulations are possible near
the Colorado border, with little impact expected.
- Temperatures return to early December normals Thursday
afternoon and for the rest of the week.
- A series of dry cold front passages will continue this weekend
and early next week, with temperature and wind fluctuations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Currently the northern half of the CWA is experiencing some Virga
along an axis of roughly La Cross to Syracuse. The observations,
including at Hays, have yet to register anything hitting the ground.
The expansiveness of the Virga has begun to erode with it expected
to be gone by sunrise. Current surface analysis places a weak low
pressure system into the Texas panhandle. Aloft, the deep and
positively tilted trough came to fruition as progged and is now
dipping into the four corner states. This system will be the most
notable aspect of the entire forecast period.
As the system approaches Kansas on Wednesday, the presently light
and variable winds will increase significantly up to 25 mph with
gusts potentially exceeding 30 mph out of the north/northwest. Along
with winds and plenty of cloud cover, snow chances return to SW
Kansas. The model/ensemble runs have been very consistent in
location (limited to near the Kansas and Colorado border), but with
moderate fluctuations in chances and amounts. The previous forecasts
have been pretty resilient to previous changes in guidance. Areas
along the border have the best chance for snow (up to 75% chance via
ensembles). Those same areas, and as far east as Ulysses have over a
40% probability to exceed 0.5" of snow. Confidence continues to grow
will little divergence of previous forecasts. While the far western
Kansas' forecast has held pat, the remaining uncertainty it largely
the rest of the area. Some CAM runs have snow reaching much of the
area, including east of Highway 283, although accumulation are near
zero (<15% via ensembles). That said a couple stray snowflakes can
not be ruled out. Regardless, even in western areas that could see
meaningful accumulations impacts are expected to be minimal. Modeled
precipitable water continues to be low at around 0.5". With a more
subtle forcing and less moisture to work with, snow is expected to
be fairly light and not be too impactful. The Winter Storm Severity
Index only has a 20% for minor winter weather impacts. While travel
precautions are advised, transportation and commerce are not forecast
to be too heavily impacted. Lowered ceilings will likely be the most
impactful aspect of the system.
By Thursday the system will be largely evacuated. A weak front is
expected Thursday morning, but winds will be largely light enough to
not warrant notable temperature advection. Ensembles have the
synoptic pattern shift to a primarily zonal flow. This pattern shift
will kick off a very dry and seasonal period. Precipitation chances
through the rest of the forecast period are very low with ensemble
chances <5%. After Thursday warms up from a cooler Wednesday, high
temperatures will be in the 40-50s primarily which is typical for SW
Kansas in early December. Relative humidities will be high even to
quell fire weather risk. No precipitation, normal temperatures, and
pleasant winds with clear skies will culminate in a very quiet and
insignificant stretch of weather for the next 7-10 days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
The start of the period will see mostly clear skies and lighter
(<10KTs). Later in the period, around 10Z, stronger winds and low
cloud cover is expected to move across into all terminals with a
near-surface low pressure system. Low ceilings, and lowered flight
conditions are forecast for all TAF sites by 18Z. The ceilings will
begin to recover near the end of the TAF period, but VFR conditions
are not expected by late in the period. Winds will also weaken
somewhat as the cloud cover erodes.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
