ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 020502
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1102 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-normal temperatures return Tuesday before another
cooldown for Wednesday and Thursday.
- Minimal opportunities for precipitation over the next seven
days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong zonal
in the mid/upper levels spanning from the southern Rockies to the
Ohio River Valley as a secondary northwesterly jet max weakens over
Wyoming and Montana. Broad synoptic ascent from upper forcing
resulted in snowfall throughout the forecast area earlier today
and will continue shifting eastward through the afternoon and
evening. Increasing midlevel thicknesses overnight into the
morning hours will allow for the return of warmer temperatures
Tuesday, though light snow cover over the area will likely keep
temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the 40s. Decided to hedge more
toward NBM50th for highs at this time, though these may be too
cool if snow melts quicker than anticipated.
A mid/upper wave diving southeast across Manitoba and Ontario will
shunt a strong cold front through the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Arctic air and its associated impacts behind this
boundary continue to be expected further to our northeast within the
Upper Mississippi River Basin. However, chilly air along the
southern fringe of the airmass is still anticipated to knock
daytime temperatures largely back into the 30s and low 40s on
Wednesday. Mid-range models also highlight a modestly-tight
surface pressure gradient as the boundary passes through the
area, which will support breezy northerly winds through
Wednesday afternoon. Limited column moisture will largely
preclude chances for precipitation with this frontal passage as
below-normal temperatures (upper 20s and low 30s) hold on
through Thursday.
Seasonably cool to near-normal high temperatures (40s and low 50s)
will return once again to close out the week before the arrival of
another cold front late Saturday night into Sunday. Global models
keep better forcing for wintry precipitation to our north and east
with this system for now, though this will bear watching as
additional information becomes available.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
MVFR ceilings will gradually mix out from west to east as we
move through the overnight hours with VFR prevailing across the
region thereafter. Light westerly winds will prevail tonight
becoming southwesterly on Tuesday at 10-15 mph at times during
the afternoon hours.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 020507
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1007 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow may develop over portions of the area during the
day on Wednesday, mainly in eastern Colorado. Light amounts,
minimal impact(s) presently expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
Tonight: Increasing upper level cloud cover prior to sunrise
and light W to SW winds will limit radiational cooling to some
extent, more-so in western portions of the area. Expect
overnight lows ranging from 10-20F, coolest in northeast
portions of the area (McCook, Norton, Hill City).
Tue: Expect a modest warming trend (highs in the 40s) as the
Arctic airmass presently in place over the region exits / drains
downhill to the east and a southerly return flow regime ensues,
though.. warming may be limited/offset (to some extent) by
upper level cloud cover.
Tue night-Wed night: Shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific
Northwest (tonight) will dig SSE through the Intermountain West
(Tue).. then stall in vicinity of the 4-Corners Tue night-Wed
before ejecting east across the Southern Plains (Wed night).
Guidance suggests that precipitation assoc/w this feature will
blossom over the central Rockies Tue night and the CO Front
Range/Palmer Divide Wed morning.. and that light measurable
precip may extend as far east as the Hwy 385 corridor in eastern
CO. With this in mind, expect a potential for light accumulating
snow over western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne
counties (CO) during the day on Wed.. before waning/dissipating
from north-to-south Wed evening. Given the complex nature of
the instigating upper wave (stalling in vicinity of the
4-Corners).. confidence is below average with regard to precip
amounts and eastern extent. In the lower levels, an Arctic
airmass over northern interior Canada will surge S and SE toward
the northern CONUS Tue night-Wed. While the core of the Arctic
airmass (characterized by 850 mb temps -25 to -30C) will remain
north of the Upper Great Lakes, the southwestern fringe of said
airmass will surge southward through the Dakotas (Tue night) and
Central Plains (Wed), the leading edge of which will manifest
as an effective cold frontal passage. Guidance suggests that
cold advection will begin in earnest ~06Z Wed, with 850 mb
temperatures bottoming out at -5 to -10C (in the Tri-State area)
Wed afternoon. Expect well below average highs ranging from the
upper 20's (CO) to lower-mid 30's (elsewhere) with overnight
/Thu morning/ lows ranging from 10-20F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
Long range guidance indicates a WNW-NW flow pattern and
episodic shortwaves over the Rockies and High Plains late this
week into this weekend. Broadly speaking, expect an above
average potential for unsettled weather in the lee of the
northern and central Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD
through the period. West-southwesterly winds will dominate
through the morning and early afternoon before a weak trough
will cause the winds to become light and variable.
We are looking at additional moisture moving into the area with
12 hours after the end of this TAF period. This is expected to
lead to degraded ceilings and increased potential of
precipitation of the snowy variety, especially at KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 020415
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1015 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow ending by early evening.
- Variable though still below normal temperatures dominate the
coming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Bands of snowfall ahead of a mid-level wave continue to pass over
eastern areas early this afternoon. Precipitation amounts have been
on the higher side of most guidance though snow to liquid ratios
seem to be lower, keeping amounts generally in the 1-4 inch
range. Trough axis will be nearly east of the area by 0Z so 6
PM end of the Advisory remains in order, with western areas
already seeing some sun.
Northwest flow aloft persists over the next several days. Southwest
flow around 5000 feet brings warmer air in tonight into Tuesday with
anticipated large temperature spreads in high temperatures
considering the varying snow field it will flow over. Have bumped up
values a bit given the WAA and decent insolation. The next upper
wave looks to split to the southwest and east for little opportunity
for anything more than trace precip late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday though 850 mb temps fall back to around -8 C for a cold
Wednesday night and Thursday. Air temps may approach 0 F near
the Nebraska border with the 1035 mb surface high moving into
northeast Kansas near dawn Thursday, though light winds keep
apparent temps close to these air temps. Temperatures moderate
somewhat Friday into Saturday though another somewhat weaker
front comes in during the Saturday/Saturday night time frame
though with little upper support to keep the forecast dry. The
upper pattern looks to shift a bit west early next week bringing
potential for warmer conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Clearing continues from west to east over they next hour across
all terminals. Early morning shallow patchy fog appears to be
the most likely setup with dry air remaining in place just above
the surface layer although low lying areas could see thicker
areas of fog. Winds remain generally light into early afternoon
tomorrow before increasing slightly from the south during the
afternoon with a few gusts around 15kts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 020453
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1053 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
next 7-10 days, through at least December 10th.
- Moderating temperatures back to near normal Tuesday.
- The next cold front brings strong north winds and much colder
air Wednesday.
- Light snow possible Wednesday night, especially west of Dodge
City, but amounts will be light and impacts minimal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Positively tilted trough axis was passing over SW KS at midday,
with the last of the snowbands exiting eastward through central
Kansas. Strong subsidence behind the trough axis will continue
to clear the sky rapidly from west to east through sunset. With
light westerly downslope and sunshine, western zones will warm
well into the 30s this afternoon. Most locations northeast of
Dodge City will fail to get above freezing. Clear and cold
tonight with light winds, and efficient radiational cooling
will produce sunrise temperatures in the teens. Light SWly
downslope will manage to keep a few locations in the 20s.
Arctic air erodes Tuesday as midlevel flow backs to zonal,
allowing for a noticeable increase in afternoon temperatures,
back close to early December normals in the lower 50s. Northeast
zones near Hays will remain in the mid 40s Tuesday as snowcover
melts. After 9 am Tuesday, south winds will increase markedly as
return flow fully establishes, with gusts near 30 mph.
The next dry cold front is scheduled to sweep through SW KS by
sunrise Wednesday. North winds Wednesday will be stronger than
NBM guidance, and 12z MOS guidance is several degrees colder
than NBM on Wednesday as well. Given a 1035 mb Canadian
anticyclone building down the northern plains, over at least
partial snowpack, the colder/windier solutions will likely
verify Wednesday. Per coordination increased winds to the 90%ile
of the NBM and lowered maximum temperatures 2-3 degrees.
Model consensus places the next shortwave near the Four Corners
6 pm Wednesday. This shortwave, already quite weak, is forecast
to weaken further as in enters confluent flow over the plains
Wednesday night and early Thursday. There may be a period of
light snow/flurries in the post frontal environment, favoring
the western zones, Wednesday night. Any snow will be very light,
and many models, including the 12z GFS and many GEFS ensemble
members, are completely dry. As such, NBM pops are necessarily
very low. Given the weakening system and limited moisture, any
snowfall/impacts will be very limited to nil.
Cold surface ridging over SW KS 6 am Thursday will deliver
another cold morning in the teens, although cloud cover should
be considerable associated with the weakening ejecting system,
putting a deterent on radiational cooling potential. The pattern
repeats, with return flow establishing again Thursday
afternoon, but models suggest this will be recirculated
continental polar air, with a cold afternoon in the 30s.
Models fall into disarray with the timing details Friday
through the weekend, but they do agree that 1-2 dry cold
frontal passages will occur during this time. Gulf moisture will
be cutoff from SW KS during this time, so have high confidence
a dry forecast will continue through the weekend despite the
cold fronts. Temperatures and wind direction will flucuate
modestly as the cold fronts pass, but a quiet weather pattern
with no impacts is expected beneath benign NWly flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period under mostly
high pressure. Winds will be primarily light <15 KTs out of the
west before shifting to mostly variable. By around 0Z, cloud cover
is forecasted to move in, but ceilings should be high enough to not
impact flight conditions.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...KBJ
