ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 181920
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
220 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering showers and storms departing this evening. Windy
conditions expected this afternoon through tonight.
- Cool and dry on Sunday.
- Temperature swings and rain chances next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Early this afternoon, a potent shortwave trough is passing over the
central/southern plains. The primary trough axis, located from
central Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, is the catalyst for
widespread showers and storms across far southeast Kansas.
Additionally, little capping and cool temperatures aloft have
allowed for some instability to develop across south-central Kansas,
and some isolated storms are likely this afternoon before the trough
exits eastward. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong cold front has
entered central Kansas and will quickly sweep across the area. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the advancing cold front and
will last into the nighttime hours.
As a result of this frontal passage, much cooler and drier air will
filter into the region by Sunday. Sunday will be the first true fall-
like day with morning lows starting off in the upper 30s to mid 40s
and afternoon highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be relatively light
on Sunday thanks to a surface ridge sliding across the area.
However, increasing winds aloft over the Rockies in lieu of the next
system will begin influencing the region late on Sunday with
pressure falls occurring across the High Plains. As a result, breezy
south/southwest winds are expected late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening expected across western and central Kansas. Temperatures
quickly rebound on Monday ahead of another cold front forecast to
arrive early on Tuesday. With the lack of moisture, rain chances are
negligent with the passage of this frontal boundary. Additional deep
layer troughs are set to arrive during the latter portions of next
week continuing a series of frontal passages across the region.
Additionally, some rain chances are possible assuming sufficient
moisture returns to the region, and sufficient ascent is present to
support showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast
Kansas early this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development
is expected across south central Kansas early this afternoon
with this activity sliding east through the early evening hours.
This activity will be close to ICT this afternoon however
confidence in direct impacts at the terminal remains too low to
include a prevailing mention at this time. CNU will see showers
and storms for most of the afternoon and early evening before
clearing out tonight. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will
remain VFR. Northwest winds will increase this afternoon behind
a cold front with breezy to low end windy conditions expected
at all sites with winds gradually diminishing late tonight.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...WI
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 182017
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 MPH, are forecast today.
Winds may also lead to blowing dust reducing air quality and
visibility, especially near recently harvested fields.
- A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern Colorado,
southwest Nebraska, the Highway 27 corridor, along with Thomas
and Rawlins county in Kansas Saturday night into Sunday
morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of
the area.
- Another cold front with strong winds, dust and fire weather
concerns is forecast Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
for Monday.
- Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct
21).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Cold front has moved through the area and winds are starting to pick
up as cold air advection and 850mb and 700mb jets strengthen.
Generally wind gusts from the north of 40-55 mph are forecast.
Although would not be surprised if some isolated instances of around
60 mph wind gusts occurs especially after 3pm as the 700mb
strengthens to around 45-55 knots and diurnal mixing will be at
its peak. Still can't rule out some spotty blowing dust during
the afternoon hours but lapse rates are a little marginal and
the overall strength of the wind really dont lead to me to
believe that much dust can get lofted. Continue to think that
any dust would be relegated to near recently plowed/harvested
fields resulting in spotty locales of visibility falling under 1
mile. Have noticed some increasing mid level moisture via the
15Z RAP13 which may support some sprinkles or light showers but
think that with the drier air at the surface if anything were to
occur it would be sprinkles at best.
Drier air is forecast to move in eroding any clouds that do manage
to sneak into the area from the north. A surface high which is
currently across Wyoming is forecast into the area along/just west
of the Kansas/Colorado line will lead to a period of light and
variable winds. This along with continued cold air advection will
set the stage for the first frost and freezes for the area. I did
expand the Freeze Warning to include Thomas county as there has been
a subtle eastward shift of the high and guidance has come in colder
as well. Some guidance does still have the high moving through
quicker allowing winds to become more southwesterly sooner, if that
does occur then more of a downsloping component would ensue keeper
temperatures a bit warmer than what is forecasted.
Sunday, surface troughing moves into the area allowing the area to
warm up albeit more than today despite being the wake of the
cold front with highs currently forecast in the in the low to
mid 70s. Breezy winds are forecast to continue with the trough
gusting 20-30 mph before slowly waning through the afternoon.
With the drier air remaining in place behind the front RH values
are forecast to fall into the mid teens to low 20s across
nearly the entire forecast area. Some localized critical fire
weather conditions may be possible west of the Colorado/Kansas
state line but with the winds forecast to decline through the
afternoon confidence is not there for 3 or more hours of
critical conditions to warrant any fire weather highlights at
this time. Through the evening another system across the
northern Plains intensifies as a cold front approaches the area
as winds shift to the north again. Winds do appear to remain
breezy through the night Sunday and into Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
The extended period appears to start out active on Monday as just
mentioned another and stronger cold front is forecast to move
through the area between 12 and 15Z Monday morning. Wind appears
again to be main concern with this front currently with winds gusts
around 55 mph and potentially as high as 65 mph occurs. The key to
the stronger winds will be exactly what time will it move through
and if enough mixing can occur to bring those winds down to the
surface. Blowing dust is also a concern as long winds remain strong
enough to support dust being lofted. With the gusty winds today and
no precipitation forecast before Monday confidence is a bit
higher Monday in dust occurring across the area. Mixing heights
around 2000 meters and 2-2.5km lapse rates around 3-6C/km are
also favorable as well for keeping a cap on the amount of dust
that can escape into the atmosphere. The other concern for
Monday is fire spread potential. Am seeing an increasingly
favorable signal for the potential for critical fire weather
conditions at least for counties along the Kansas/Colorado state
line. NAM and GFS soundings both show lower dew points just
above the surface which leads me to believe that these lower dew
points will mix down easily leading to lower dew points than
what guidance output is suggesting. So with all of this in mind
along with collaboration from WFO Pueblo and Boulder will be
issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Monday.
Monday night, continues to appear to be the next potential for frost
and freeze for the area. Another more broad surface high is forecast
to set in over the area allowing for strong radiational cooling
potential. If winds can lighten enough then a widespread hard freeze
may be realized. Am still opting to hold off on adding in frost into
the forecast until I see how the Freeze Warning for tonight pans out
as the growing season may end for some ahead of Tuesday morning.
Tuesday, at this time appears to be fairly tranquil as the high
pressure slowly moves out of the area, as this occurs then winds are
forecast to shift to the southwest, very similar to what is
forecast to occur Sunday (Tomorrow). Mid week, guidance
continues to show a compact disturbance moving across the area
bringing the next potential for rain chances. GFS is a bit
further north so think this is what the NBM is picking up on for
the slightly higher chances of rainfall. GEFS spread however
still continues to show a bit of a spread of the location and
timing of this so am still not completely sold on the rain
chances as of yet.
Looking ahead towards next weekend, guidance does show another
deepening trough which may indicate that this active pattern we
are in will continue.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds
have begun to increase across the area gusting 30-40 knots.
Can't completely rule out a rogue gust around 45 knots at some
point this afternoon. Confidence is not there to continue to
keep BLDU in the TAF as current thinking if any occurs it will
be more localized. If this changes will issue an AMD. Winds are
forecast to continue through the afternoon before waning this
evening as a gradual shift to a more southerly direction occurs
around 12Z or so.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for
KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042.
CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ090>092.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ252>254.
NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
FXUS63 KGLD 182028
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 MPH, are forecast today.
Winds may also lead to blowing dust reducing air quality and
visibility, especially near recently harvested fields.
- A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern Colorado,
southwest Nebraska, the Highway 27 corridor, along with Thomas
and Rawlins county in Kansas Saturday night into Sunday
morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of
the area.
- Another cold front with strong winds, dust and fire weather
concerns is forecast Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
for Monday.
- Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct
21).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Cold front has moved through the area and winds are starting to pick
up as cold air advection and 850mb and 700mb jets strengthen.
Generally wind gusts from the north of 40-55 mph are forecast.
Although would not be surprised if some isolated instances of around
60 mph wind gusts occurs especially after 3pm as the 700mb
strengthens to around 45-55 knots and diurnal mixing will be at
its peak. Still can't rule out some spotty blowing dust during
the afternoon hours but lapse rates are a little marginal and
the overall strength of the wind really dont lead to me to
believe that much dust can get lofted. Continue to think that
any dust would be relegated to near recently plowed/harvested
fields resulting in spotty locales of visibility falling under 1
mile. Have noticed some increasing mid level moisture via the
15Z RAP13 which may support some sprinkles or light showers but
think that with the drier air at the surface if anything were to
occur it would be sprinkles at best.
Drier air is forecast to move in eroding any clouds that do manage
to sneak into the area from the north. A surface high which is
currently across Wyoming is forecast into the area along/just west
of the Kansas/Colorado line will lead to a period of light and
variable winds. This along with continued cold air advection will
set the stage for the first frost and freezes for the area. I did
expand the Freeze Warning to include Thomas county as there has been
a subtle eastward shift of the high and guidance has come in colder
as well. Some guidance does still have the high moving through
quicker allowing winds to become more southwesterly sooner, if that
does occur then more of a downsloping component would ensue keeper
temperatures a bit warmer than what is forecasted.
Sunday, surface troughing moves into the area allowing the area to
warm up albeit more than today despite being the wake of the
cold front with highs currently forecast in the in the low to
mid 70s. Breezy winds are forecast to continue with the trough
gusting 20-30 mph before slowly waning through the afternoon.
With the drier air remaining in place behind the front RH values
are forecast to fall into the mid teens to low 20s across
nearly the entire forecast area. Some localized critical fire
weather conditions may be possible west of the Colorado/Kansas
state line but with the winds forecast to decline through the
afternoon confidence is not there for 3 or more hours of
critical conditions to warrant any fire weather highlights at
this time. Through the evening another system across the
northern Plains intensifies as a cold front approaches the area
as winds shift to the north again. Winds do appear to remain
breezy through the night Sunday and into Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
The extended period appears to start out active on Monday as just
mentioned another and stronger cold front is forecast to move
through the area between 12 and 15Z Monday morning. Wind appears
again to be main concern with this front currently with winds gusts
around 55 mph and potentially as high as 65 mph occurs. The key to
the stronger winds will be exactly what time will it move through
and if enough mixing can occur to bring those winds down to the
surface. Blowing dust is also a concern as long winds remain strong
enough to support dust being lofted. With the gusty winds today and
no precipitation forecast before Monday confidence is a bit
higher Monday in dust occurring across the area. Mixing heights
around 2000 meters and 2-2.5km lapse rates around 3-6C/km are
also favorable as well for keeping a cap on the amount of dust
that can escape into the atmosphere. The other concern for
Monday is fire spread potential. Am seeing an increasingly
favorable signal for the potential for critical fire weather
conditions at least for counties west of the Kansas/Colorado
state line. NAM and GFS soundings both show lower dew points
just above the surface which leads me to believe that these
lower dew points will mix down easily leading to lower dew
points than what guidance output is suggesting. So with all of
this in mind along with collaboration from WFO Pueblo and
Boulder will be issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Monday.
Monday night, continues to appear to be the next potential for frost
and freeze for the area. Another more broad surface high is forecast
to set in over the area allowing for strong radiational cooling
potential. If winds can lighten enough then a widespread hard freeze
may be realized. Am still opting to hold off on adding in frost into
the forecast until I see how the Freeze Warning for tonight pans out
as the growing season may end for some ahead of Tuesday morning.
Tuesday, at this time appears to be fairly tranquil as the high
pressure slowly moves out of the area, as this occurs then winds are
forecast to shift to the southwest, very similar to what is
forecast to occur Sunday (Tomorrow). Mid week, guidance
continues to show a compact disturbance moving across the area
bringing the next potential for rain chances. GFS is a bit
further north so think this is what the NBM is picking up on for
the slightly higher chances of rainfall. GEFS spread however
still continues to show a bit of a spread of the location and
timing of this so am still not completely sold on the rain
chances as of yet.
Looking ahead towards next weekend, guidance does show another
deepening trough which may indicate that this active pattern we
are in will continue.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds
have begun to increase across the area gusting 30-40 knots.
Can't completely rule out a rogue gust around 45 knots at some
point this afternoon. Confidence is not there to continue to
keep BLDU in the TAF as current thinking if any occurs it will
be more localized. If this changes will issue an AMD. Winds are
forecast to continue through the afternoon before waning this
evening as a gradual shift to a more southerly direction occurs
around 12Z or so.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Watching for some locally critical fire weather conditions
across eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. Winds are forecast to
be from the southwest gusting 20-30 mph from the late morning
hours through the afternoon where the higher gusts are favored
but will see a gradual decline through the afternoon. Due to the
low confidence in 3 or more hours occurring of critical
conditions will forego any fire weather highlights.
Monday, however will see a strong cold front move through the
area between 12-18z with strong to windy conditions following
it. The winds will continue through the day from the north
gusting 40-55 mph as much drier air moves in with it. I did
lower dew points some from the NBM as forecast soundings shows
drier air just above the surface that should have no problem
mixing down resulting in RH values of at least 15% occurring.
There was heavy consideration to including Cheyenne (KS),
Sherman, Wallace and Greeley counties in this watch as well but
confidence was not quite there yet in 15% humidity being met
let alone for multiple hours. If fuels were fully cured, which
per fuel partners they are not yet but are slowly getting
there, with the humidity being close would have went ahead and
issued based on the strength of the winds. If guidance does
continue to lower then an expansion of the watch or just a
straight shot to a Red Flag Warning may be warranted.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for
KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042.
CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ090>092.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ252>254.
NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 181857
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
157 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front moves through the area today with
northwest winds gusting at 30-40 MPH behind the front this
afternoon and evening.
- Feeling more like Fall behind the front starting Sunday and
continuing through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
A cold front was just entering north central Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the front, a mid-level wave was riding along
the KS/OK border. Lift and moisture associated with the low will
likely move far enough north to bring some showers and
potentially an isolated thunderstorm to southeast portions of
the area (generally south of I-35). Some sprinkles are also
possible in the wake of the cold front with upper-level ascent
and some steeper mid-level lapse rates moving through the cold
air advection. With the stronger push of cold air and steep
lapse rates, wind gusts around 35 mph are possible late this
afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure builds in tonight.
Wind speeds will diminish and cloud cover clear. This should
lead to a rather cool night, with overnight lows in the 30s
possible across north central Kansas. Cooler, more Fall-like
weather will hang on through the week. Another cold front moves
through on Monday, but it appears this frontal passage will be
dry with moisture remaining well of to the south and east. The
next chance of rain may not arrive until the end of the week as
models have been consistent in depicting a closed low moving
into the central Plains sometime Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A strong cold front
will move through around 22z today. This will bring a sharp wind
shift out of the northwest and gusty wind around 30 knots for
the late afternoon and evening. Wind speeds should begin to
diminish after 06z. Some light showers are possible following
shortly behind the frontal passage, but confidence in these
materializing and impacting the terminals is too low at this
point to mention anything in the TAF.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 182200
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost Advisory remains in effect with no changes in counties
and no upgrade to Freeze Warning as probabilities of 32F or
less are too low to support a warning (Hamilton Co. will be
close around 50% prob along/north of the Ark River).
- Another strong cold front Monday with north winds 20 to 30
mph, similar to today, and no precipitation.
- Signals continue to increase in a widespread rain event across
a fairly large portion of Kansas later in the upcoming week. NBM
probs of 1/4" or more 2-day rainfall are in the 30 to 50%
range, highest toward south central Kansas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
The early afternoon water vapor imagery and objective analysis
fields showed the phasing of a southern stream shortwave trough with
a digging northern stream jet streak, which was amplifying upward
vertical motion ahead of the phasing systems to our east. A subtle
"comma head" feature was developing on satellite across south
central Kansas, but as the phased mid-latitude cyclone (MLC) matures
tonight, it will continue to pull away from our southwest Kansas
region.
The cold front, tied to the initial northern stream component of the
now phased MLC, continued to drive quickly south across southwest
Kansas. Surface winds have responded with most observations across
western Kansas recording north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35+
at times on good MSLP rises behind the front (on the order of +5
mb/3h). Decent MSLP rises will continue through the early evening,
but as the center of the expanding MSLP high continues southeast
this evening and tonight, winds will decrease. The decreasing wind,
a clear sky, and much lower dewpoints falling down into the mid to
upper 20s (degF) through the night will allow ideal radiational
cooling across western Kansas. The inherited Frost Advisory
along/west of Liberal to Dighton to WaKeeney line still looks good.
Latest 12Z NBM and HREF probabilistic fields for 2-meter
temperatures do not really support upgrade of the Frost Advisory to
a Freeze Warning (32F or less), with perhaps the exception being
Hamilton County.
A low-amplitude ridge will move quickly across the Western Plains
followed by another vigorous shortwave trough early in the week. The
larger hemispheric scale pattern will be highly progressive, so this
next shortwave trough will foster a very fast-moving cold front and
no precipitation. Monday's weather will be similar to today in that
strong north winds and a mostly sunny sky will prevail.
Heading deeper into the upcoming week, a large scale main polar
branch ridge axis will develop across the Rockies and adjacent Great
Plains. An initial cutoff low off the coast of Southern California
will begin to feel the influence of another upstream northern branch
trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, effectively kicking out the
SoCal low out across the Four Corners region late Wednesday
Night/early Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnants of the polar frontal
zone from the earlier week system will remain in place around or
just south of our region, and a new surface low is expected to
develop somewhere over northeastern New Mexico to far southwest
Kansas. Southerly low level winds will draw up gulf moisture across
West Texas toward the surface low. Ingredients appear to be coming
together for an organized precipitation event across a decent
portion of the Central and Southern Plains, focused on late Thursday
through early Friday. Global deterministic and associated ensemble
systems favor a surface low track across Oklahoma, and if this pans
out, this favors at least moderate precipitation across Kansas,
including perhaps a fair portion of southwest Kansas. Given this,
the NBM POPs for Thursday Night continue to increase, up to around
40-50% for our eastern forecast area, generally east of Highway 283.
There has also been a consistent trend in these POPs expanding
westward in successive model runs, and if this trend continues with
more global model ensemble systems honing in on a storm track to our
south, POPs will increase even more across southwest Kansas. This
system is still 5-6 days out, so this is about as specific as we can
get regarding any sort of signal for the late week potential
precipitation event.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
VFR is expected through TAF pd. Some mid level to high level clouds
tonight, but that is about it. Strong N winds 20-30 kt will continue
until around 03Z. Winds will become light and variable by 06Z as
high pressure drops south across the terminals. This high will move
SE tomorrow, with breezy SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt
by 18Z.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>076-
084>086.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden
