ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 070916
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Short-lived cold airmass will be in place area wide today with
highs not expected to make it out of the 30s.
- Much warmer temps for Tuesday, with many locations seeing
highs in the 60s
- Another surge of cold air anticipated for the Friday-Saturday
time frame.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery currently shows some shortwave
energy stretching from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the
Central Rockies. Further north, a deep upper low is in place
from eastern Ontario into Quebec. At the surface, strong cold
front stretches from central MO into western OK with Arctic air
spilling south across the Northern Plains.
Unseasonably cold air will continue overspreading the area today
as low clouds also spill south encompassing the entire forecast
area this morning. Still looking for highs today to not make it
out of the 30s which will be around 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. Shortwave energy will quickly shift east today and
tonight, leaving the Plains in northwest flow aloft by Mon
morning. This will allow the surface high to push east along
with the colder temps. So by Mon, we will be right back into
seasonal temps. By Tue morning there is good model agreement in
a fast moving upper impulse tracking out of southwest Canada and
into the Northern Plains by early Tue evening. This will setup
great downslope conditions across all of KS which will boost
highs into the 60s for much of the forecast area on Tue. Most
records for Tue are in the 70s, so not looking to break any at
this time.
While cooler air will move-in behind the departing wave, it will
only knock temps back down to seasonal normals. In addition, all
precip associated with this shortwave will stay well north of
the forecast area. Pattern will remain very progressive, with
another upper impulse diving southeast in the northwest flow
from the Northern Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains
for Wed night into Thu morning. Just like the last couple of
systems, any precip will likely stay north of the area. A more
robust piece of energy is then forecast to track out of
Saskatchewan and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Fri
morning. The GFS is stronger with this trough compared to the
ECMWF and brings Arctic air in faster. The GFS moves it in Fri,
while the ECMWF would wait until Sat. So confidence in temps
through this period is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
A cold frontal boundary is working its way across the forecast
area, turning winds out of the northwest for central Kansas
sites already. ICT is currently experiencing IFR cigs, but once
the frontal boundary moves through between 06-08Z, winds will
turn out of the northwest and ceilings will lift. Winds will
remain breezy out of the northwest through around 18Z with gusts
to 25 knots. MVFR cigs are also expected through this time.
Ceilings will lift slightly for Sunday afternoon, then clear
after 00Z for all sites except CNU.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 070816
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
116 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog/Freezing Fog, some of which may be dense, this morning
along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line. A 10%
chance of isolated freezing drizzle as well. May form a film
of ice on bridges.
- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming
trend and breezy winds Monday and Tuesday.
- Cooler weather will return after Wednesday with below normal
temperatures for the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
A weak cold front is moving into the forecast area with stratus
occurring just behind it. Have actually increased low temperatures
for the night across the northeast as the cloud cover should help to
insulate the surface and keep temperatures from falling to much. To
the west of the stratus (mainly along and west of a Hitchcock to
Wichita county line) could see some fog develop along and just
behind the front as it continues to move to the southwest.
Further west of that some subtle moisture advection is ongoing
and is forecast to lead to additional fog development as well.
Should any of this fog form then freezing fog will become a
concern leading to slick roadways especially elevated surfaces.
Some of this fog may be dense but as what the similar
discussion mentioned the overall depth of the saturation level
isn't overly impressive or very shallow. Do think there will be
some isolated instances of dense fog however. Am continuing to
see some weak surface omega around 1 microbars along with
isentropic lift in the 285K level leading to some concern that
freezing drizzle could be in store for counties mainly along the
Kansas/Colorado state line and as far east as Highway 25 but
that will be dependent on how far west the front does end up
pushing. Using REFS ensemble soundings the majority of the
members keeps the entire profile below the 0C line with the
average being -0.7C so still very close; but overall further
lowers my confidence in freezing drizzle occurring this morning.
Confidence in freezing drizzle is around 10% so will leave out
of the forecast for now but will keep a close eye on the
potential.
Fog and stratus is forecast to move out of the area from west to
east through the day and finally being out of the area by the late
afternoon as a weak surface trough moves in from the west. Along the
leading edge of the surface trough some additional lift around 750-
700mb may lead to some flurries or isolated light snow showers
through the late morning favoring eastern portions of the area.
Winds may become a little breezy across western portions of the
forecast area gusting 25-30 mph. Highs for the day are forecast in
the in the mid 30s across the east which are forecast to be engulfed
in clouds for the majority of the the day to the mid 40s across
eastern Colorado. Sunday night and into Monday morning appears
to be tranquil as drier surface moisture again moves into the
area. Some mid level cloud cover may develop with a weak
disturbance but no impacts are anticipated at this time as low
temperatures fall into the low 20s to upper teens across the
area.
Monday, another surface trough is forecast to be co-located across
northern portions of the forecast area with breezy sustained winds
around 15-25 mph gusting 35 mph during the afternoon. This is also
forecast to be start of a few days of above normal temperatures
as highs are forecast in the mid to upper 50s across the
forecast area. Overall a tranquil mild day is in store for the
area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
Starting the extended period Tuesday, mild temperatures
continue for the area with highs in the 60s as winds become more
westerly promoting downsloping. Winds however are forecast to
become breezy to gusty with some gusts up to 45 mph during the
afternoon. A strong clipper system across the northern Plains is
forecast to send a cold front through the day through the mid
to late evening hours on Tuesday night bringing a chilly start
to the morning on Wednesday. However another surface trough is
forecast to impact the area Wednesday afternoon with
downsloping winds helping temperatures warm back into the upper
40s to low 50s. Some light precipitation may occur across
northern portions of the forecast area with rain during the day
when temperatures warm back above freezing and then becoming a
rain/snow mix during the night. At this time the better forcing
looks to remain north of the area so little to no accumulation
is expected and any impacts would be minimal.
Late week, yet another clipper system is forecast to move across the
northern Plains but be a little further south than the previous one
and accompanying with it a stronger cold front. precipitation
chances look a bit more optimistic with this system but still
tons of discrepancies are seen between each of the members of
the GEFS, ECWMF and ECMWF-AIFS on the amount of moisture present
and the trek of a shortwave, with the GEFS a bit more
optimistic on precipitation coverage due to more ensemble
guidance moving the shortwave over the forecast area. However
any snow output on the members that do produce precipitation
looks to be light. This is also further supported by the 00Z run
of the LREF with around a 30% chance for 0- 1 inches of
snowfall. Much colder air is looking more and more likely with
this system as high temperatures Friday may struggle to get out
of the 20s across much if not all of the area as 850mb
temperatures fall into the -8 to -12C range across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025
Stratus and MVFR ceilings are forecast to be in place over the
MCK terminal to start the period with eventual IFR ceilings
taking place. Some fog is possible but at this time not
forecasting anything lower than 3SM due to the stratus in place.
GLD however has a bit better potential for fog and freezing fog
especially closer to 12Z. There is a 10-20% chance for dense
fog as well along with 20-30% chance for ceilings falling below
airport minimum. Remain aware for icing. Conditions for each
terminal are forecast to improve with GLD first and then MCK
during the afternoon as the stratus leaves.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 070923
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Up and down temperatures this week. Cold today, warm for Tuesday,
then cold again late week.
- Low chances for light snow later in the week, but overall a
dry pattern continues.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Broad troughing remains in place across the CONUS, with a low-
amplitude shortwave over the lower Midwest. Surface
observations show low pressure now over Missouri moving quickly
east. Northerly winds have picked up behind the cold front,
strengthening CAA across the region. Coupled with extensive low
stratus, today will be much colder than the past couple days.
Afternoon highs will struggle to reach freezing in most spots.
Can't completely rule out an afternoon flurry over north-central
KS with a weak vort-max passing through, but almost all short-
term guidance shows things staying completely dry.
Still looking at a nice warmup for the first couple days of the work
week, as shortwave ridging briefly builds in aloft. Sunshine and a
return of southerly flow will help highs rebound into the 40s for
Monday, while a surge of warm westerly low-level flow will boost
highs into the 50s for Tuesday. For most this will be our first day
in the 50s in two weeks.
The warmth will not last though, as a train of stronger Alberta
Clipper-type systems dropping out of western Canada help to deepen
the eastern CONUS trough. There still remains a good deal of
variability in how the overall pattern evolves, but overall some
things are coming into better agreement. The first system looks to
deliver a shot of cooler air for Wednesday, but the core of the cold
stays far enough northeast that we don't drop too much below
average. Thursday looks to have a sharp baroclinic zone nearby, so
temperatures could be in the 50s, or potentially in the 30s. By
Friday though, there is better agreement in stronger high pressure
dropping south out of Canada, bringing a much colder airmass to the
area. So increasing confidence in another cold shot with highs
around or below freezing for the end of the week. The overall
pattern remains unfavorable for much in the way of precipitation,
with the predominant clipper track staying to our north. However
still can't rule out a few opportunities for brief/light
precipitation (mainly in the form of snow) with any weak wave that
takes a more southerly track.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Low pressure center is moving almost directly across the
area, so winds will continue to quickly switch to the northwest over
the next few hours, with some gusts to around 20 kts behind the
frontal passage. While MVFR ceilings at KTOP/KFOE have recently
cleared, more MVFR to at times IFR ceilings are approaching
from the north behind the front. These will arrive at the main
TAF sites in another couple hours. Expecting borderline MVFR/IFR
ceilings to persist for much of the period, though may begin to
scatter out by Sunday evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 070850
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clouds and cold air will try to erode from southwest to
northeast today across southwest Kansas. This will result
afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 50s near the
Colorado border to the mid 30s in the Hays and Larned areas.
- Fire Weather Risk will be on the increase Monday and Tuesday.
- Unseasonably warm Temperatures return early this week. Highs
around 20 degrees above the seasonal normals for this time of
year will be possible on Tuesday.
- Next significant shot of colder air will take aim on southwest
Kansas Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Light rain/sprinkles developed earlier tonight as an upper
level trough moved across southwest Kansas. As of 2am this
trough was moving out of the area allowing colder air and low
clouds to move into the region.
Short term models remain in agreement today with the
reinforcing shot of colder air this morning will stall across
southwest Kansas before noon. This unseasonably cold air will
then be quickly pushed eastward this afternoon following the
passage of a shortwave trough and improving downslope flow. This
will create a temperature gradient this afternoon, with highs
ranging from near 50 degrees along the Colorado border near
Elkhart to the mid 30s in the Larned and Hays areas. If the low
clouds are able to erode quicker than currently expected the
highs may end up being several degrees warmer.
Fire weather risks will be on the increase early next week.
This cold air will quickly retreat from west to east tonight and
Monday as downslope flow continues to improve and unseasonably
warm 850mb temperatures spread across western Kansas. This
improving downslope flow will not only lead to a rapid warmup
early next week but will also likely cause gusty south southwest
winds, given the deepening surface pressures over eastern
Colorado. Based on model trends over the past few days, the
potential for increasing winds and warm/dry conditions means the
fire weather risk will be rising across southwest Kansas with
the higher risk being on Tuesday. Currently the latest ensemble
clusters and NBM guidance only suggest an elevated risk for fire
weather by Tuesday. However, we will be closely monitoring
this, given the improving downslope flow and potential for deep
mixing across western Kansas on Tuesday. Deep mixing supports
lower dew points and stronger winds reaching the surface. This,
combined with improving downslope flow, would favor lower
afternoon humidity values and stronger winds than what the NBM
currently forecasts. Confidence in this scenario is medium-high
(60-70%). Therefore, despite the risk level only being
highlighted as elevated, it would be wise to prepare for higher
fire weather risks on Tuesday.
A significant warmup is also expected early next week. Short
term models and ensemble clusters suggest 850mb temperatures
will quickly warm to >12C by Tuesday afternoon. This is greater
than the 90% percentile of the model climatology for this time
of year. Given this unseasonably warm temperatures forecast
across western Kansas combined with downslope flow…temperatures
often end up being warmer than NBM guidance. Currently the
forecast high temperatures are already about 15 degrees warmer
than seasonal normals. However, highs could reach the 90-95%
range, meaning Tuesday afternoon highs might be at least 20
degrees above seasonal temperatures. Despite this possible
warmup, these highs are expected to fall short by a few degrees
of the record highs for December 9th (Dodge City: 75F, Garden
City: 77F, Medicine Lodge: 74F).
These warm and dry conditions will precede a cold front mid
week. An upper level trough will cross the central United States
which will allow the front to move across the Central Plains.
Due to the progressive nature of this system mid week, the cold
frontal passage is expected to be dry, with limited colder air
reaching southwest Kansas. Following the cold frontal passage
temperatures will drop by about 10 to 15 degrees. Even with this
drop, mid week temperatures will remain at or above seasonal
normals.
This first cold front passage mid week will be followed by a
more significant one late this week as a surge of arctic air
moves south across the Central Plains. There is still
uncertainty about how cold this air mass will be late
week/early next weekend due to the upper ridge and the quick
development of downslope flow. Despite this uncertainty on
the magnitude of this cold air...all ensemble clusters do agree
that afternoon temperatures will be unseasonably cold
temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. Current forecasts
suggest high temperatures only in the 30s on Friday with highs
ranging from 35 to near 45 on Saturday. This is currently the
most likely solution but there is a low probability (less than
25%) that some areas may not warm much higher than the mid 20s
on Friday and around 30 on Saturday, with single digit lows
possible. Anyone with plans Friday or Saturday should monitor
this next shot of cold air and be prepared.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Short term models appear to be in good agreement with a
reinforcement of colder air invading southwest Kansas between
03Z and 12Z Sunday. As the colder air moves in...an area of low
clouds (500 to 1000 ft AGL) will develop along with isolated
patchy fog (3-5sm br). These low clouds and patchy fog will
gradually give way to VFR conditions between 15Z and 18Z today
(Sunday). The north winds will decrease to 10 knots or less
after 15Z, and then gradually veer to the east southeast early
this evening.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
