ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 150506
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storm chances return to central Kansas late tonight into
Tuesday morning, with increasing probabilities Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning across much of the area.
- Marginally severe storms and localized flooding are possible on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
- This weeks warmup will be followed by much cooler air arriving
on Sunday into early next week with additional chances for
showers and storms over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Isolated or widely scattered showers and storms have already
developed within the sfc trough axis across western KS. Some of this
activity could brush parts of our central KS counties through the
evening hours although the bulk of the activity is expected to
remain north and west of our area of concern. A shortwave trough
racing across the Northern Plains will drive a cold front south into
the area late tonight. This frontal boundary is progged to move
south and east across the area on Tuesday. That will result in
another hot day for areas ahead of the front which includes much of
southern and southeast KS where highs in the upper 90s/around 100
once again. Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms will
increase along and behind the front on Tuesday afternoon. PWATs over
2 inches are forecast to return to the area leading to efficient
rainfall with any storms that develop. MLCAPE of 1500+ combined with
30 knots of 0-6km shear may support some strong or marginally severe
storms although mid-lvl lapse rates appear rather marginal. This
activity could linger into the overnight hours as the LLJ noses into
south central and southeast KS with some mid-lvl waa persisting
across the area. Some showers could linger over parts of central KS
early on Wed before the heat builds back into the area during the
afternoon hours with above average temperatures anticipated.
The mid/upper ridge is expected to return on Thu-Fri bringing hot
and dry conditions to the area. A shortwave trough emerging from the
Rockies will bring increasing probabilities for showers and storms
to the area late Fri and Fri night with little relief from the heat.
Unsettled weather conditions may linger into Sat as the upper ridge
shifts eastward while a more robust shortwave trough moves over the
Northern Plains. This will eventually drive a strong cold front
southward over the area late Saturday into Sunday ushering in more
seasonable air through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
A frontal boundary will begin to make its way across the area
later this morning and through the afternoon time frame. Winds
ahead of the front will remain breezy out of the south, with
winds turning northeasterly behind the front and gusting near
25 knots for central Kansas. LLWS will remain a concern through
12Z with this boundary nearing.
Low cigs are expected to develop behind the front in central
Kansas along with the possibility for shower activity. Impacts
from showers will be minimal and isolated, did not include in
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty of localized impacts. A few
thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front later in
the afternoon, most likely impacting HUT and ICT. Kept mention
of them minimal, again, due to uncertainty on timing and
placement.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Hot and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger
along and west of I-135 late this afternoon through the early
evening hours. Southerly winds will be sustained at around
25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...JC
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 150506
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1106 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy SW winds expected across portions of the area through early
this afternoon, strongest east of Hwy 83 (Oakley/Hill City)
where sustained winds ~25-35 mph may gust up to 50 mph before
weakening during the late afternoon.
- A severe storm or two is possible this afternoon, mainly east
and south of Colby, KS between 3-9 PM CDT. Localized wind
gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. An instance of dime
to quarter size hail is also possible. Moderate (50-60%)
confidence in storm development and timing.
- An early morning cold frontal passage will bring much cooler
temperatures to the area Tue-Tue night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Strong upper system moving through the Northern Plains will
provide weak synoptic scale lift further south, but enough for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A
stationary front located long the southern part of the area
(Hill City to Leoti), will also provide additional lift. Main
hazard today will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and perhaps
localized blowing dust, with a hot, deeply mixed environment
promoting favorable DCAPE. Instability will be maximized near
the front, up to 1500 j/kg, but deep layer shear in that area
will only be around 20 kts. Nonetheless, can't rule out a brief
stronger updraft producing hail up to quarter size near the
front. Storms move out fairly quickly as the upper support fades
by around 04-05z. Overnight, cold front associated with the
northern system will enter southwest Nebraska by around 09z and
should be through the remainder of the area by 12-13z. Moisture
pooling along the front may result in a narrow band of fog and
low clouds that accompany frontal passage.
Tuesday will be mostly to partly cloudy with rising heights in
the afternoon as the upper ridge rebuilds from the south. This
will result in dry conditions through the day. However, there
will be a chance for showers late Tuesday night with a favorable
southwest low level jet and associated isentropic lift.
Confidence is somewhat low as some CAMs suggest that
precipitation may remain just south or east of the area. MUCAPE
overnight is forecast to be 500-1000 j/kg, so not expecting any
severe threat at this time.
For Wednesday and Thursday, southwest flow will develop around
the ridge centered over Arkansas. Embedded waves will result in
afternoon thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado and
the Front Range which move into the area both nights. Some
afternoon development is possible on Thursday in northeast
Colorado as well. Instability and shear forecasts are weak and
the probability for severe weather will be low. QPF forecasts
are generally less than a quarter of an inch.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be much cooler behind the front
with highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures quickly rebound
on Wednesday and Thursday however with highs in the 80s on
Wednesday and lower 90s on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
On Friday, an upper level low-pressure system over the Middle
Rockies will be sliding towards the east over northern CONUS
that will help bring in a cold front overnight and into Saturday
morning. Sunday onward, there is some uncertainty about the
upper-level ridging over the U.S. and Canadian border. On
Monday, guidance is still uncertain with the ridging to the
north, but there is consistency that embedded shortwave troughs
would be going through the area. This is forecast to bring
cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers. Temperatures
Friday will be the warmest during the period with afternoon
highs being in the mid to upper 80s. From Saturday onward,
temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s as the cold front
moves in and a possible secondary cold front Monday. There is
medium confidence (40-55%) that temperatures would remain in the
70s.
Showers are also possible with the uncertainty of the upper-
level pattern. As the cold front moves through Friday night and
into Saturday morning, there is high confidence (75%) for
overnight rain. However, there is some uncertainty with the
timing of the cold front as deterministic guidance shows the
front being further west than ensemble guidance.
On Sunday morning, with the confidence in the upper-level
pattern starting to deteriorate, confidence for showers also
begins to decrease heavily (75% to 30%) and would likely occur
in the early morning hours. On Monday, there could be some
showers favoring south of I-70 as possible embedded shortwave
troughs could move through the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
IFR and potentially VLIFR ceilings are possible for KMCK and
are expected for KGLD this morning. A cold front will be pushing
in through the early morning hours, bringing with it a wave of
low stratus, a 30% chance of showers for KGLD, and a 15% chance
of fog for both KMCK and KGLD. With the front, expect winds to
rapidly become northeasterly and increase in speed. Likely wind
gusts will be in the 25-35 kts range, but we cannot rule out
some gusts up to 45 kts. Ceilings will gradually lift back to
VFR during the morning and by the mid-afternoon, winds will have
weakened some. Tuesday night, stratus looks to return for both
sites.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...JTL/Moeller
AVIATION...CA
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 142325
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 40-60% chance of storms for north central KS tonight.
An isolated severe storm with damaging winds cannot be ruled out.
- Storm chances are expected to increase to around 90% by Tuesday
night. Rounds of heavy rain may cause flooding and a Flood Watch is
posted for northeast and parts of north central KS.
- Warm and dry conditions are forecast to end the week before another
front moves in this weekend with rain chances and cooler temps.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
A closed upper low was noted on the 19Z water vapor imagery over MT
moving towards the northern plains while high pressure remained over
the southern MS river valley. Surface obs showed a trough of low
pressure stretching from the central high plains into the northern
plains with a warm front lifting across the forecast area into
southern NEB.
For this afternoon and tonight, CAMs still indicate some isolated
convection developing across north central KS and there have been
some weak showers pestering through the early afternoon. But
forecast soundings have the boundary layer mixing out fairly deeply
east of the surface trough. As a result the instability is progged
to diminish as the boundary layer moisture scours out. So chances
for severe storms through the evening across north central KS appear
to be pretty conditional on there being enough instability for a
robust updraft to develop. If this happens, there could be some
damaging wind potential with an inverted V soundings and weak
effective shear to sustain updrafts. Overall the chances for severe
thunderstorms appear to be low.
For Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase as a weak boundary slides south into
southern KS. Short term models show a similar setup of a stalled
boundary across southern KS while moisture continues to lift north
of the boundary. The RAP and NAM show sustained isentropic lift into
northeast KS as precipital water vales increase over two inches, or
well above the ninetieth percentile for PWs and near a record. This
setup could favor the redevelopment of thunderstorms Tuesday evening
and into Wednesday morning with torrential rainfall. The 13Z NBM has
probabilities of 2.5 inches or more between 50 and 75 percent across
northeast KS and the 12Z HREF, while a little more isolated,
supports this idea. If storms move across the same location multiple
times, it is not inconceivable to see locations get 3 or more inches
of rain by midday Wednesday. So have posted a flood watch for the
areas with the better probability of receiving heavy rainfall. There
is also a risk for severe weather Tuesday afternoon ahead of the
front over parts of east central KS. The forecast has temps warming
into the middle 90s before the boundary moves through. This could
yield MUCAPE values around 3000 J/kg depending on how boundary layer
moisture holds up along the boundary. Bulk shear around 30KT could
support some severe potential through the afternoon hours.
Models show the mid level ridging re-amplifiing over the central
plains to end the week. This should push precip chances back north
of the area with highs still hanging on to the lower 90s. By this
weekend and early next week the ECMWF and GFS show a better wave
coming out into the plains. Ensembles show increasing spread in the
forecast due to differences in the amplitude and timing of the wave.
But the larger trend of precip chances this weekend with more fall
like temps for the start of next week is consistent in the
ensembles. Have not made any changes from the WPC/NBM forecast but I
would expect there to be some refinement of the forecast as the
differences narrow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
VFR at terminals with focus on a fropa from the north accompanied by
TSRA Tuesday. Kept the PROB30 for TSRA from 14Z-18Z given the
uncertainty in storm coverage ahead of the boundary. As the front
passes through terminals during the afternoon, confidence increases
for scattered TSRA so went with prevailing aft 18Z at KMHK and 19Z at
KTOP/KFOE. MVFR cigs become more likely towards the end of the
period. Marginal speed LLWS remains a concern from 05-12Z as a low
level jet peaks near 50 kts at 2kft.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Prieto
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 142155
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong southwest winds Monday gusting 35-45 mph.
- Near record heat Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100.
- Scattered thunderstorms favoring the northwest zones Monday
evening, with the primary risk of damaging outflow wind gusts
of 60-70 mph.
- Strong cold front arrives Tuesday, with a large temperature
gradient across SW KS (much cooler north, still hot south).
Strong northeast winds and falling temperatures Tuesday
afternoon.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night, some of which may be strong with
locally heavy rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Strong summer subtropical ridge was centered over the
Mississippi valley at midday, with southwest midlevel flow aloft
over SW KS. Satellite imagery indicated the eastern periphery of
the monsoon circulation over SW KS, with mid and high clouds
northwest of Dodge City. Radar indicated a few sprinkles
embedded in this monsoon plume across the northwest zones.
CAMs are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will
redevelop in this moisture plume after 4 pm, favoring these
northwest zones. Primary risk in the hot, mixed boundary layer
environment will be outflow winds of 50-70 mph, per SPC 5-15%
wind probability for northern zones. High based thunderstorms
should focus along I-70 Monday evening, and NBM correctly has
its higher pops here.
Elsewhere, strong southwest winds will continue through sunset,
gusting 35-45 mph. Downslope compression will send temperatures
to near the records for September 14 (100 at DDC).
Fortunately, Monday's heat will be short lived, as a strong cold
front will advance through SW KS Tuesday. With the cold front's
timing during the diurnal heating cycle, a large temperature
range will unfold Tuesday, from 60s and 70s north, to near 100
southeast. Cold front is expected to enter northern zones at
sunrise, and exit Barber county by 7 pm. Exact high temperatures
for each location will depend of frontal timing, and a non-
diurnal curve downward is expected behind the front with
elevated northeast winds. 12z GFS shows decent cold advection
for September, with 850 mb temperatures falling through the
teens C. Increasing and lowering midlevel clouds will also add
to the fall-like feel Tuesday afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along/behind the advancing
cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening, favoring the southeast
zones. Shear and instability will both be modest at best, but
stronger storm clusters will be capable of outflow wind gusts,
per SPC marginal 5% wind probability southeast zones. Cold
front will begin retreating northward quickly Tuesday night,
with winds quickly returning to the south through Wednesday.
This warm advection process should encourage at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall probable
through Tuesday night.
NBM reloads above normal temperatures back into the lower 90s as
soon as Wednesday, but much global model guidance keeps SW KS in
the 80s. Higher confidence in the heat returning Thursday, well
into the 90s, along with a dry forecast, as the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge retrogrades westward onto the
high plains. The heat will continue Friday afternoon, before the
next strong cold front arrives next weekend. MEX and NBM
guidance suggests some locations will remain in the 70s Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 455 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Radar at 2140z Mon depicted several strong thunderstorms near
the HYS and GCK terminals, moving northeast. Some of this
activity will impact GCK/HYS over the next few hours, with
outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts the primary risk to aviation.
Amendments are likely for GCK/HYS TAFs as storms approach. Light
south winds will prevail overnight, with varying amounts of mid
and high clouds. Models are trending stronger with the expected
cold front passage Tuesday, expected to clear all airports by
18z Tue. Increased northeast winds behind the cold front,
gusting 30-32 kts Tuesday, with lowering midlevel clouds.
Ceilings may lower to MVFR Tuesday morning at GCK.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner
