ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 061137
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog this morning for areas along and east of I-135, with some
dense fog possible.
- Strong cold front moves through tonight and will bring highs
on Sunday around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures likely for Tuesday, with many
locations seeing low 60s for highs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Currently have some shortwave energy tracking across the Mid
Mississippi Valley with a series of additional perturbations
from the Northern Rockies into the Central Rockies. Meanwhile, a
a deep Polar low is rotating across Ontario and is allowing some
very cold air to start moving into the Northern Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.
Clear skies and light winds have allowed some patchy fog to
develop for areas along and east of I-135. So far here in
Wichita the fog has been very shallow and patchy but has also
been fairly dense at times. Currently have a dense fog advisory
for southeast KS where moisture is somewhat deeper, but
wouldn't be surprised if this will need to be expanded further
west if fog becomes more widespread.
The main story for tonight into Sun will be for a strong cold
front to surge through. Colder air will start to spill south
into our forecast area later tonight as a strong piece of energy
tracks out of southern Manitoba and into the Western Great
Lakes region by Sun morning. This will keep highs in the 30s on
Sun which will be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Shortwave energy will quickly track across the Plains Sun into
Sun night and will get the area back into strong northwest flow
aloft to start the work week.
There is good model agreement that a compact fast moving upper
impulse will track out of the Northern Rockies and across the
Northern/Central Plains on Tue. This will push the surface high
east and also increase lee troughing, which will setup great
downslope conditions on Tue. Still looking for highs on Tue to
be in the upper 50s and low 60s, which will be around 10 degrees
above normal highs. Pattern will remain very progressive with
another upper wave taking the same track, moving into the Mid
Mississippi Valley by Thu morning. The GFS is more robust with
this shortwave trough compared to the ECMWF and would bring
another surge of Arctic air into the area for Thu night into
Fri. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the really cold air further
northeast. So beyond the Wed time frame, confidence drops off
considerably with regards to temps.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and fog this morning,
mainly across southeast KS.
Fog has been steadily increasing in coverage across southeast KS
over the last few hours with this trend continuing as we speak.
Further west, fog has been more patchy and transient. Here at
KICT, fog will move-in for around an hour, and then move out and
has been very shallow. So for this morning, KCNU will have the
best shot to see LIFR conditions through at least 16z with KICT
seeing brief periods of low vis and cigs this morning. Cold
front is still expected to move through late tonight and will
flip winds around to the northwest.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ071-072-
095-096-098>100.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 061116
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 10-20% chance for a short period of light snow and possibly
freezing drizzle north of Highway 36 (mainly southwest
Nebraska) around sunrise Saturday morning. Little to no
accumulation is currently forecasted.
- NW winds may gust to 40-50 mph for a few hours Saturday
afternoon. An isolated instance or two of gusts up to 60 mph
can't be ruled out across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne county
Kansas.
- 10-20% chance of fog, perhaps freezing fog, Sunday morning.
- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 316 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025
Added in some freezing drizzle this morning to the forecast
based off of the latest 06Z RAP and NAM soundings. Newest
soundings have come in with a bit more saturated low levels
along with a stout warm nose just above the surface. This aligns
well with the 07Z NBM showing 15-25% chance of freezing rain. At
this time thinking that any freezing drizzle potential would
remain along and north of the Kansas/Nebraska state line
affecting mainly Red Willow, Hitchcock and potentially Dundy
counties through around 10am CT or so. Have also trended winds a
bit more towards the GFS as it is handling the location and MSLP
of the low better than other guidance. Wind gusts around 50 mph
are possible mainly west of Highway 25. Still can't rule out
some rogue 55-60 mph gusts especially across Yuma, Dundy and
Cheyenne county (KS) late this morning into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1141 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
Sat-Sat night: WNW to NW flow aloft will persist over the
region. Shortwave energy over the northern Rockies at 06 UTC
(per SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress ESE-SE
across the Northern/Central Plains today.. accompanied by a
modest surface low that will track ESE-SE from the NE Panhandle
(~12Z) to central NE (~18Z this afternoon) and Kansas City
(00-06Z this evening). High-res guidance continues to suggest a
brief potential for light precip around sunrise (~12-14Z) in
southwest Nebraska. The presence of a dry low-level airmass with
southern extent (toward the KS-NE border) may preclude
measurable precipitation in the Goodland county warning area.
While an increasingly prominent warm-nose will be present when
precipitation is possible (800 mb temps rising to 2-3C in the
~12-15Z time-frame), forecast soundings suggest that vertical
wetbulb profiles will remain at-or-below freezing (supportive of
snow). Breezy NW winds will develop early this afternoon.. as
the surface low progresses east of the Tri-State area. Winds
will weaken after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025
Starting the extended period Sunday morning. Weak omega around
1-3 mb is forecast to be in place along and east of Highway 83
around sunrise with a deep saturated layer in place from 500mb
to the surface via 03 RAP13 cross sections as a cold front moves
through the area. Further looking at soundings from the same
time frame shows this as well with the entire profile below the
0C line which suggests to me snow would be the main p-type
especially across Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. This is
however very similar to the other morning when freezing fog and
freezing drizzle was present across northwest Kansas and led to
very slick roadways for the morning hours. I do notice as well
around 12-15Z warm air advection in the 850mb layer which
further raises my concerns for freezing fog/freezing drizzle to
occur as a warm nose may develop. Surface winds are also
forecast to be light from the east which is also
climatologically favorable for fog or drizzle. 00Z NAM12 is also
similar on the location but doesn't show the omega and has a
little more drier air in the 750-700mb layer. Due to the shallow
nature of the lift and it being just below the dendritic growth
zone think the drizzle or fog is the more likely solution but
confidence in this is only around 10-20% at this time as I
would like to see a little more consistency with guidance. The
00Z HREF is ironically enough only showing around 15% chance of
ceilings falling below 1000 feet AGL which for freezing drizzle
and obviously fog the lower the ceilings the better for the
occurrence. Should this occur any fog or drizzle should be out
of the area around 12pm CT. Temperatures for Sunday are
currently forecast to be around normal for early December in the
upper 30s to mid 40s with the warmest across western portions
of the area as downsloping occurs and the cool air mass
Monday, northwesterly flow shifts a little further to the east which
shunts any potential disturbances away from the area this looks to
continue through midweek as well as we are forecast to see a warming
trend with Tuesday looking to the warmest with highs in the 60s.
Along with dry conditions. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast
as well Tuesday as the 850mb wind field increases. With the
warmer temperatures may need to keep an eye out for some
elevated fire weather conditions primarily along and north of
Highway 36.
Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday morning another clipper
system moves across the northern Plains and sends a cold front
through the region. GEFS ensemble members are split on the amount of
moisture in place ahead of the front which will depend on if
precipitation can occur with it. There is also potential for a
stronger front Thursday morning associated with a shortwave within
the northwesterly flow as the clipper system shunts the
northwesterly flow back to the west and we enter the same
pattern as we have been in. 00Z GEFS shows a bit more promise on
precipitation potential with this than what I've been seeing
the previous days but looks like it is consistent with what the
18Z run was showing as well so will be interesting to see if its
picking up on something or if these are outlier runs. However
on the flip side the 00Z run of the ECMWF-AIFS ensembles has the
area dry. Will leave with a dry forecast for now due to the
significant differences of guidance but is for sure something
to keep an eye on.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025
VFR conditions are forecast however am monitoring some
precipitation moving into the area from the west-northwest. A
light rain/snow mix is currently forecast but a period of
freezing drizzle can't be completely ruled out for the MCK
terminal. Confidence is only around 20% in it occurring but be
aware of icing potential. Winds are forecast to increase through
the day with the strongest at GLD where gusts around 40 knots
are forecast as winds turn to the northwest through the day.
Winds are then forecast to decrease late this afternoon as the
nocturnal inversion sets in. Starting to see some signal for
stratus or fog towards the end of of this TAF period.
Confidence in direct impacts to the terminal is too low at this
time to include in the TAF but it will be added if confidence
increases.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 061115
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
515 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few brief/light rain showers across northeast Kansas this
evening, but otherwise a dry pattern continues through the week.
- Up and down temperatures continue. Warmest today and Tuesday,
coldest Sunday and potentially Thursday/Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Northwest flow continues over the Plains this morning, with broad
troughing across much of the CONUS. We're beginning to see some
patchy fog start to develop across portions of eastern KS, in the
vicinity of a mostly decayed frontal boundary from yesterday. With
light winds and lingering boundary moisture, should see this fog
expand through sunrise. Can't rule out needing a Dense Fog Advisory
at some point, mainly south of I-35, but for now it looks like areas
of <0.25 mile visibility will stay patchy. Any fog should mix out by
late morning as south winds pick up ahead of the next cold front,
arriving this evening. This front will be attached to an area of low
pressure trekking roughly along the KS/NE border. Most of the mid-
level lift will stay north of the surface low, so while there should
be some spotty rain showers across northeast KS, total rainfall
amounts will be a few hundredths or less.
Another surge of colder air moves in Saturday night behind the
front. Temperatures again struggle to reach freezing Sunday, and
fall into the teens for Monday morning. A more notable warming trend
takes hold after that though, as shortwave ridging builds ahead of
the next system diving down from western Canada. Temperatures climb
back into the 40s for Monday afternoon, before climbing into the 50s
for the first time in two weeks for Tuesday.
Colder temperatures look to build back in for the second half of
next week, though the magnitude of the cold remains highly
uncertain. The bulk of the uncertainty is tied to the amplitude and
position of the eastern CONUS trough, as several more notable
digging shortwaves help it retrograde back farther west. The more
amplified solutions bring the coldest air more southward, while a
more progressive and less amplified solution would keep temperatures
just slightly below average. To quantify this uncertainty, the NBM
75th-25th percentile high temperature spread is a whopping 20
degrees for Thursday and Friday. At any rate, the chilly northwest
flow will tend to limit moisture. Some low chances (<20%) for some
light snow next Thursday/Friday, but no notable precipitation
chances are on the horizon.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Fog remains south of the main TAF sites as of 11z. This
should generally remain the case through this morning, though can't
rule out some briefly lower visibilities in the river valley near
KTOP. Otherwise, south winds increase to around 10 kts this
afternoon with higher gusts ahead of a cold front. This front moves
through around midnight, bringing in northwest winds gusting 20-25
kts and and likely MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 061159
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The next 10 days to two weeks will likely be completely dry.
- Near record highs in the lower to mid 70s are possible
Tuesday.
- Only a glancing blow of arctic air is forecast for next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Over the next week an upper level ridge will develop along the
West Coast, with upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Individual shortwave troughs progressing
southeastward out of Canada will bring shots of cold air into
the Midwest and eastern United States. Western Kansas will miss
the brunt of the arctic air as low level downslope flow keeps
temperatures relatively mild in the lee of the Rockies.
A disturbance passing southeastward across the plains today will
result in a surge of downslope flow ahead of a cold front, with
winds southwesterly becoming westerly in the afternoon. Highs
will easily reach into the mid to upper 50s to lower 60s. One
thing that could keep temperatures from reaching their potential
is a shield of mid to high level cloud that will be advancing
across the high plains today. This will probably keep
temperatures from exceeding 60 except for the southwest corner.
In the wake of the upper level system a cold front will pass
this evening, resulting in cooler highs in the 30s and 40s for
Sunday. A moderating trend can be expected Monday as cool high
pressure passes eastward and is replaced by surface troughing.
On Tuesday another upper level system will pass southeastward
into the northern plains, with deep surface low pressure over
the Dakotas and moving into MN/IA and a burst of westerly
downslope flow over southwest Kansas. All of the ensemble
suites indicate 850mb temperatures in the 14-17C range (10th and
90th percentiles). Ensemble clustering shows 850mb temperatures
in the 95th percentile range, indicating near record highs are
possible. Deep mixing may even extend up to 700mb (about 7500 ft
above sea level at Dodge City). In this pattern the highest
percentiles are preferred as models tend to have a tough time
mixing warm mid level air to the surface. This means that the
model winds are likely too weak as well, resulting in the
vertical "mixing out" of moisture. Thus, expect warmer, drier
and windier conditions for Tuesday than the current NBM and
current forecast show. Given expected 700mb winds around 30 kts
and mixing up through that level, 30-35 mph wind gusts are
likely during the afternoon. The record high for Dodge City is
75 set in 1939.
Another weak cold front is due Tuesday night, with highs falling
into the 40s to perhaps 50s for Wednesday depending on the
intensity of the cold surge. However, another surge of warm air
is expected Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s.
Temperatures become much more uncertain by Friday, Saturday and
Sunday as the western edge of the aforementioned arctic air
will be very close. This means there will likely be a gradient
in temperatures between Hays and Elkhart. Temperatures may not
get above freezing in Hays Saturday. The cold air may be
stubborn to leave once getting wedged into the plains so that
Sunday may turn out to be cooler as well, especially in central
Kansas.
No precipitation can be expected for the next week to 10 days
and probably longer. The Grand Ensemble indicates only 5 to 20%
chances for measurable precipitation (.01" or greater) in the
Wednesday night and Thursday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Southwest winds will increase to 15-17 kts this morning as a
surface trough forms on the high plains. This trough will
gradually move east this afternoon and evening, with winds
becoming west to southwest at 10-13 kts. An upper level
disturbance will approach late this afternoon along with an
associated cold front. Mid level moisture and cold temperatures
at mid levels may result in gusty winds and a sprinkle; but
this will likely stay west of KGCK. Winds will settle down to 10
kts behind the front tonight. VFR conditions will persist.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
