ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 210917
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
With a large mid/upper ridge situated over the Rockies and
continuing to slide eastward today, it will be another day of
clear skies and relatively warm temperatures for the time of year
with dry air in place over the state. Downslope flow at 850mb and
abundant sunshine should allow afternoon highs to reach near 60
degrees across much of the area.
For Thanksgiving Day, it looks like the forecast will remain dry
and warm as the ridging continues to move across mid-America.
Meanwhile, a surface low forming in the central Rockies will
tighten the pressure gradient across central, south central, and
southeast Kansas and allow for southerly winds to pick up across
the area Thursday evening and into Friday.
Once this surface low begins to progress across the state, this
will bring our next shot at rain for late Thursday night into
Friday as moisture transport increases across the area. The warm
temperatures will remain in place, resulting in only rain as the
precipitation type. Models have been in fairly good agreement,
though of note the latest GFS came in much drier for south central
Kansas. Given the consistency over the past few days, however, and
the good agreement between other models, have left the forecast as
status-quo. Once again, bumped QPF up slightly from the
initialization grids to trend more towards WPC and the
ECMWF/Canadian solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
The main focus in the long term was placed on the next system
scheduled to move across the area Saturday night into Sunday. A
deep longwave trough looks to push ahead a decently strong surface
low, which would bring chances of rain, snow, and wintry mix to
the forecast area as much colder temperatures make a return. As
was the case yesterday, the overnight suite of models continues
to hint that the system could be a quick moving one, which would
certainly limit the impacts of the potential winter weather.
Another challenge will be pinpointing the position of the low,
which has varied significantly amongst model runs over the past
couple of days. The position could have a large impact on which
areas receive which precipitation type and how much. However, as
has been previously discussed, variations are to be expected over
the next few days as the details become more clear.
What does seem likely at this point is that central Kansas would
have the best chance of seeing snow, southern Kansas would have
the best chance of seeing mostly rain, and a wintry mix is
possible in between. Additionally, a very strong pressure gradient
will produce strong north winds across the entire area, with
sustained speeds of at least at 30mph or more with gusts up to
40mph. With this forecast package, increased sky cover quite a bit
on Sunday as well, with mid-level relative humidity forecast to
be well into the 80-90% range. Continue to favor a non-diurnal
temperature trend for Sunday, holding temperatures during the day
and even dropping slightly by late afternoon/early evening.
As the system moves off to the east Sunday night, the pattern
becomes much less active again with drier air in place over the
Central and Southern Plains. Indications continue to be that
temperatures could begin to slowly rebound next week, but how much
warmer we will get will also depend on snowfall amounts from the
Saturday night/Sunday system. Otherwise, expect quiet weather
heading into the workweek next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018
VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period
along with southerly surface flow and mostly clear skies.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 60 36 58 47 / 0 0 0 50
Hutchinson 60 35 59 46 / 0 0 0 40
Newton 60 35 58 45 / 0 0 0 50
ElDorado 59 36 58 45 / 0 0 0 50
Winfield-KWLD 59 35 59 46 / 0 0 0 50
Russell 60 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 30
Great Bend 60 33 60 44 / 0 0 0 30
Salina 59 35 59 46 / 0 0 0 40
McPherson 60 34 58 45 / 0 0 0 40
Coffeyville 59 34 60 46 / 0 0 0 30
Chanute 58 34 59 45 / 0 0 0 40
Iola 58 34 59 44 / 0 0 0 40
Parsons-KPPF 58 34 59 46 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...KED
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 210957
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
257 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018
Synoptic Overview: An upper level ridge over the Intermountain
West will progress east across the Rockies and High Plains today-
tonight as a complex upper level trough moves ashore the Pacific
coast. Southwest flow aloft will prevail on Thursday -- in advance
of shortwave energy progressing eastward from central/northern
California to the 4-Corners region. The aforementioned shortwave
will track east across the Central Plains on Friday.
Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence attendant the upper level ridge
progressing east across the Rockies will maintain mostly clear
skies, dry conditions, and seasonable temperatures.
Thursday-Thursday night: Expect increasing cirrus and a modest
southerly breeze in western Kansas as flow aloft backs to the
southwest and a lee cyclone develops in eastern Colorado -- in
advance of shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners region.
Sensible weather conditions will otherwise be similar to today.
Friday-Friday Night: The lee cyclone will progress east across
the Tri-State area in concert with the aforementioned shortwave
energy during the day Friday. Winds will abruptly shift to the
northwest and strengthen in the wake of the lee cyclone Friday
morning. No significant change in airmass will accompany the wind
shift and highs will be similar to Thu, though perhaps a few
degrees cooler (depending on upper level cloud cover). Subsidence
in the wake of the progressive shortwave will favorably coincide
with diurnal heating, resulting in deep vertical mixing amidst
speedy NW flow aloft. GFS/NAM forecast soundings indicate 25-35
knot flow off the deck with as much as 40-50 knot flow in the
upper portion of the mixed layer, strongest in northeast Colorado
and extreme northwest Kansas. With the above in mind, expect
sustained northwesterly winds at 25-35 mph with gusts in the 45-55
mph range Friday afternoon. Winds will rapidly decrease AOA sunset
with loss of insolation /mixing/ and a slackening MSLP gradient.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018
A longwave upper-level trough will progress eastward across the
Mountain West which will lead to the quick development of a strong
surface low Saturday evening near the Central High Plains. This will
bring in precipitation which will start as rain Saturday afternoon
and then switch over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing
after dark Saturday evening. Snow is expected to last into the
morning hours Sunday before slowly tapering off around sunrise.
While the overall rainfall/snowfall totals will not be significant,
an accompanying high wind event will make for rough travel
conditions this coming holiday weekend. It is not unreasonable to
anticipate wind gusts up to 50 mph or higher out of the northwest
Saturday evening. With even light snowfall rates, these high wind
gusts will make for widespread blowing snow and significantly
reduced visibilities, especially since this event will mostly occur
at night.
This time frame is a little unusual for typical high wind
events in which higher momentum is mixed down during the
daylight/afternoon hours. The highest wind gusts this weekend will
generally be from about 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday, but wind gusts
up to 40 mph and some blowing snow will be possible through Sunday
afternoon. Those with plans to travel through the Tri-State area
overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning will want to monitor this
forecast closely to make the best decisions they can about travel
arrangements.
As the upper-level trough pushes farther east Sunday, things will
dry out for the Central High Plains. There is not expected to be any
active weather at this time for early next week other than partly
cloudy skies Monday through Wednesday as things slowly warm back up.
High temperatures will start out Saturday afternoon in the mid 50s
before the surface low cools things off dramatically. Highs Sunday
will struggle to reach 40 degrees, then gradually warm back up to
the mid 50s by the middle of next week. Similarly, low temperatures
start out Saturday morning in the low 30s, then cool down to the mid
20s Sunday and the low 20s for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday
morning, low temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018
VFR conditions /clear skies/ and light W-SW winds are expected
through the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...VINCENT
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 211131
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
Early this morning the region remained under northwesterly flow
aloft with a broad mid-level trough stretched across the
northeastern U.S. However, expect the mid-level ridge centered over
the Rockies early this morning to shift eastward into the central
U.S. tonight into Thanksgiving Day. An expansive region of surface
high pressure will remain anchored over the eastern U.S., so the
combination of this high pressure and the building mid-level ridge
will keep conditions dry through tonight. Despite clear skies early
this morning, light southwesterly winds will aid in limiting the
effect of radiational cooling and keep temperatures several degrees
warmer than yesterday with lows only dropping into the upper 20s to
low 30s. Abundant sunshine is expected today with southerly surface
winds supporting enough warm-air advection to boost high
temperatures above the seasonal normals with readings into the
mid/upper 50s and possibly even into the low 60s in some locations.
Clear skies will allow for decent radiational cooling once again
tonight, but persistent light southerly winds should keep low
temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
The primary focus for the extended period continues to reside with
the potential for a significant winter storm Sunday...
Thanksgiving-Thursday looks to remain quite pleasant across the
forecast area as a midlevel ridge axis traverses the central Plains.
Southerly winds are likely to gust upwards of 25 MPH throughout the
day as an approaching midlevel trough across the central Rockies
deepens a sfc lee trough and thus the sfc pressure gradient. Mixing
heights are progged to near 925-900 mb during the afternoon. With
900 mb temperatures near 8-8.5 C, sfc temperatures are likely to
approach 60 F Thanksgiving afternoon.
Rain chances will be on the increase late Thursday night into Friday
as the aforementioned midlevel trough axis and attendant Pacific
front traverse the central US. A deep warm layer beneath 800 mb will
yield an all-rain event. Little, if any, in the way of CAA is
expected behind the weak Pacific front, therefore expect
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon.
Our attention is then drawn northwestward as the next shortwave
trough comes ashore in the Pacific northwest late Friday. Model
solutions dive the shortwave southeastward across the central
Rockies before greatly amplifying and ultimately becoming a stout
midlevel low. Intense, associated sfc and 850 mb lows are progged to
develop in the Colorado front-range Saturday. 00Z GFS/ECMWF
solutions, and prior runs for that matter, continue to remain in
decent agreement with the evolution and track of the mid-latitude
cyclone. At this point, deterministic and ensemble members generally
have the sfc and 850 mb low tracks between I-35 and I-44. Pattern
recognition wise, a low track closer to I-44 generally yields a
longer duration snowfall event across eastern KS. That being said,
the impressive CAA behind the sfc low should allow for rapid
changeover to all-snow with widespread snowfall accumulation,
potentially several inches, even with a low track near I-35.
Moreover, a substantial sfc pressure gradient is likely to
overspread the region Sunday, potentially on the order of 10 mb per
100 miles. Mean boundary-layer wind speeds are expected near 45-50
kt, which will likely translate to sfc wind gusts near 50 MPH. The
combination of moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall with these strong
winds may result in blizzard-like conditions with near zero
visibility Sunday. If run-to-run model consistency continues through
the remainder of the week, a Winter Storm Watch will likely be
needed for much of the CWA by weeks-end.
Northerly midlevel flow is progged to return to the central and
northern Plains as the western CONUS ridge amplifies. A surface
ridge axis is expected to spill across the central US Monday into
Tuesday. Depending upon snow cover, high temperatures may remain in
the 20s and 30s F with lows in the 10s and 20s F.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with southerly winds remaining less than 10 kts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 211100
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
Very quiet weather will prevail today and tonight as western Kansas
will remain squarely between the southern and northern branches of
the polar jet stream. In the southern branch, a weak shortwave
trough will be pushing across southern New Mexico and West Texas
today, and the mid/high level cloud associated with this disturbance
is expected to remain well to remain south of the southwest Kansas
region. As a result, full insolation will be on tap again today.
Winds will be very light if not dead calm at times later today as a
weak MSLP gradient will be in place. Afternoon temperatures will top
out in the upper 50s to around 60 most locations. Clear skies will
prevail through the night as well with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on a very light southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
Two storm systems will be impacting western Kansas in some fashion
during this time frame. The first storm will be moving quickly
across the Central Plains late Thursday Night into Friday, and
given the low amplitude, highly progressive nature of this storm,
precipitation chances across much of western Kansas are extremely
low. Very light accumulating rain may extend as far west as Hays
to Stafford or so, but even this looks like a fairly low
probability. Of greater concern will be very strong winds
following this storm on Friday. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph
appear likely with gusts to 40 mph at times, especially late
morning to early afternoon. Given the strength of the downslope
momentum in the wake of this first storm, there will be
essentially no impact on temperature as highs Friday are expected
to be about the same as Thursday.
The next storm will be much more significant in terms of higher
impact weather for some portion of the Central Plains, but it
also will be quite progressive. In fact, the time frame for
precipitation has sped out to the Saturday Night early Sunday time
frame. Given the faster moving nature of the late weekend storm,
it will most likely not have a chance to dig as far southwest as
earlier models runs indicated. As such, the potentially
significant winter weather impacts should remain just northeast of
the southwest Kansas region. That being said, we are still
dealing with a Day 4-5 forecast and there is still an opportunity
for the storm track to shift farther south. If it does, then we
will need to increase POPs even more, as well as bump up QPF and
snow amounts. Intense winds of 25 to 40 mph sustained still look
pretty good behind the low late Saturday Night into much of
Sunday. Gusts above 50 mph will also be possible, although the
official forecast will be calling for 40-45 mph gusts Sunday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 457 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
The 12Z TAF is just an update of the previous TAF as no changes
were made. Expect winds to remain below 12 knots through the
entire period today and tonight with VFR prevailing in a
continued dry airmass.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 33 62 42 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 60 29 61 39 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 60 31 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 60 30 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 61 31 61 43 / 0 0 0 20
P28 61 33 60 45 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
