ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 250754
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Early morning activity will continue to slide southeast aided by
moisture transport from low level jet associated with upper level
wave moving across Nebraska. Storms will linger this morning over
southeast Kansas and should dissipate before the afternoon, as
subsidence spreads across central and southern Kansas in the wake of
the upper level short wave. A possible outflow boundary from the
overnight activity could become a focus for re-newed thunderstorm
development in Oklahoma and portions of southern Kansas today,
mainly for late this afternoon and evening. Wind shear will be
marginal but instability will be plenty high enough for a few multi-
cell strong/severe storms.
Confidence is high that hot above normal temperatures will prevail
this holiday weekend across the region, as upper level ridge
amplifies over central US. The weather pattern looks to remain dry
as well for most of the region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Models show upper level trough axis gradually shifting eastward and
transitioning to semi-zonal flow with a few short waves moving
across the region this period. This pattern favors a couple possible
nocturnal MCS thunderstorm events for Kansas with models showing
short waves moving through the region. Confidence is high that
daytime highs will remain above normal for late May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Main concern will be convective trends overnight.
Cluster of storms that developed over northwest KS has tracked
into central KS and is continuing to track east and shows no signs
of stopping. KSLN looks to be the next site impacted with 40-50mb
winds and heavy rain. Confidence in storms affecting other sites
are much lower, so will run with a VCTS for now. If this area
holds together it would make it into southeast KS by around
10-11z, and KICT after 08z. After this activity pushes east, not
very confident we'll see much in the way of storms as we get into
some subsidence. The exception maybe any outflow boundaries that
are floating around.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 93 68 94 69 / 20 10 0 0
Hutchinson 94 66 95 68 / 10 10 0 0
Newton 92 67 94 68 / 20 10 0 0
ElDorado 90 67 92 69 / 30 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 91 67 92 69 / 30 20 0 0
Russell 96 64 96 67 / 10 10 0 0
Great Bend 96 64 95 67 / 10 10 0 0
Salina 94 67 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
McPherson 94 66 96 68 / 10 10 0 0
Coffeyville 87 68 92 68 / 30 30 10 0
Chanute 87 67 91 68 / 30 20 10 0
Iola 87 67 91 68 / 30 20 10 0
Parsons-KPPF 87 68 91 68 / 30 30 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 250830
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018
Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are clear with
temperatures ranging mainly in the 50s w/ some locales east in the
lower to mid 60s still. Winds are variable 5-10 mph.
For today...with the exiting showers and thunderstorms...region
will begin to see amplified H5/H7 ridging build east off the
Rockies into the Plains...cresting over the area late
tonight...then east of the CWA on Saturday. Strong WAA will
accompany the passage of the upper ridge with 850 temps +27c to
+30c today...and +27c to +33c on Saturday. The result will be
daytime highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Looking for high
today in the upper 80s to mid 90s...peaking tomorrow w/ mid to
upper 90s. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night upper 50s
thru the mid 60s...warmest east. Lee-side trough west on Saturday
and surface ridging to the east will provide a tight southerly
gradient with gusts nearing 20-30 mph...making hot conditions
Saturday afternoon even worse.
For Sunday and Sunday night...cutoff upper low moving into the
Rockies will interact with lee-side trough moving off the Front
Range. Ample instability to allow for thunderstorms development
for the afternoon/evening hours before tapering off. Strong to
severe potential exists for the area. For now though much of the
CWA remains in the general thunder category at the SPC w/ extreme
NW zones reaching into the southern edge of a Marginal Risk
area...with hail/wind threats. General SW flow aloft will keep
WAA over area. Highs Sunday will be "cooler" than Saturday...but
still ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows
Sunday mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018
Warmer weather with chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
is forecast for this period.
The upper level ridge will remain stationed over the southern CONUS
through next week. Meanwhile short wave troughs will move around
the periphery of the ridge. A couple of these short wave troughs
will be strong enough to push the ridge further south on Tuesday and
Wednesday. This may give a brief break to the warm weather.
While there will be chance for rain until Thursday evening, the best
chances for rainfall will be Tuesday and Wednesday as stronger upper
level short wave troughs move through. Models disagree with how far
east the dry line will be for this period, which will affect where
the CAPE will be. Due to this discontinuity have low confidence in
determining when and where severe storms will occur at this time.
However would not be surprised if severe storms to occur, especially
Tuesday or Wednesday, since they are strongly favored for this time
of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018
VFR conditions at MCK and GLD are expected through the 06Z TAF
period with only a few high clouds and light winds.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 250844
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Early this morning, an embedded mid-level shortwave was noted over
central and eastern KS as a weak mid-level trough skimmed eastward
across the Northern Plains. Late last night into early this morning
a cluster a storms developed beneath this passing shortwave over
central KS, with additional support from some isentropic lift and a
25-30kt LLJ. As of 08z, storms continued to progress eastward
toward east central KS, however the associated outflow boundary had
accelerated well ahead of this precipitation. Additional showers
and storms were developing over far western Missouri, and while much
of this activity should remain east of the CWA we will have to
monitor how these storms will interact with the approaching outflow
boundary, so have some slight chance PoPs in across the far eastern
edge of the CWA. Short-range models continue to struggle with the
evolution of precipitation chances today into tonight, however the
prevailing trend is for the cluster of showers and storms to
continue to progress into east central KS this morning with some
additional development along the lingering outflow boundary over far
east central KS. Models show this precipitation diminishing by mid
to late morning, with the clearing skies and light southwesterly
winds supporting afternoon high temperatures surging into the upper
80s to mid 90s, which is 10-15F degrees above the seasonal normals.
By tonight, a mid-level ridge will build northward into the High
Plains region, with a cold front stretching across Nebraska. Some
models show the potential for some scattered showers and storms to
develop along this boundary and progress southward toward the CWA.
However, models show much of this activity dissipating as is reaches
the area. As a result, have kept a dry forecast across north
central KS for tonight. With regards to any storms that develop
today into this evening, cannot rule out the potential for a few
strong storms to develop with 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and a relatively
weak cap present. However, with weak 25kt to maybe 30kt 0-6km bulk
shear, any stronger storms that develop will struggle to sustain
themselves. As a result, small hail and gusty winds will be the
primary hazards with any strong storms that develop.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
On Saturday a midlevel low pressure will track over the Great Basin
causing a ridge aloft to build over the plains. With the lack of
synoptic forcing diurnally driven thunderstorms will be still be
possible, but the better chances are southeast of the forecast area.
Attention then turns to the heat that accompanies the ridge as highs
reach the mid to upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Dew points are
expected to generally be in the 60s and upper 50s so the heat
indices make it into the upper 90s and lower 100s. On Saturday it
appears eastern KS will have a weak surface pressure gradient since
the lee-side trough remains across the high plains. The lack of wind
and heat should make it feel quite oppressive. On Sunday the lee-
side trough shifts eastward so wind speeds are slightly higher. By
Monday and Tuesday the midlevel low pressure lifts over UT allowing
southwest flow aloft to overspread the region. Any potential
shortwave troughs will supply lift for thunderstorms in the high
plains, which could progress eastward into the area. Any lingering
convective outflows could become the focus for develop similar to
the conditions this week. With deep layer shear decreasing closer
to the ridge aloft the chances of organized severe storms is
marginal. Next week high temperatures will remain in the 90s, but
the dew points slightly increase and so the heat indices do not
improve. Given that we just went through the 3rd coldest April and
now we are experiencing July temperatures and humidity people
might not be used to the heat. With outdoor activities increasing
heat safety may be the main message to highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop after 7Z FRI near
or at the terminals and may last through the mid morning hours of
Friday. Ceilings will remain VFR, however visibilities may drop
to 4SM in thunderstorms. Expect VFR conditions to continue
through Friday evening. There may be an isolated late afternoon
shower or thunderstorms near the KTOP and KFOE terminals.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Record High Temperatures for May 25th:
Topeka: 95 degrees, set in 1953
Concordia: 97 degrees, set in 1967
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Hennecke
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 251040
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Two small mesoscale convective systems (MCS) were moving southeast
across central Kansas through north central Oklahoma during the
overnight hours. These two MCSs will continue to push away from the
southwest Kansas region, and an upstream shortwave ridge across the
Rockies will be the main influence on western Kansas weather for
today. Weak northwest flow aloft will occur across southwest Kansas
this afternoon with a nebulous 700mb baroclinic zone around,
although surface winds will be fairly weak and lack of defined low
level convergence is expected to prevent organized thunderstorm
development today. The only area that could see the best chance for
anything at least somewhat organized would be southern Barber County
late this afternoon as a weak surface low tries to redevelop
somewhere in the vicinity of the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. As
temperatures warm into the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 50s
to lower 60s, a rogue isolated strong to marginally severe storm
cannot be ruled out just about anywhere, but will be keeping the
POPs below 20 percent with no mention of Wx in official forecast for
today/this evening (with the exception of Barber County).
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
The mentioned upper level ridge in the Short Term section will move
slowly across western Kansas through Saturday, and this will keep a
lid on any thunderstorm activity. This will also result in
temperatures warming well into the mid to upper 90s. Things start to
change by Sunday afternoon as the leading edge of southwest flow
aloft impinges on far western Kansas. This will foster development
of the surface leeside trough and increased convergence along the
Colorado border. Low level moisture will slowly pull back to the
west, and at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
anywhere along the leeside trough, as both the ECMWF and GFS global
models have a QPF signal along/east of the leeside trough. This
should be the first of multiple days of thunderstorm activity. In
fact, Monday and Tuesday look particularly interesting as the upper
low approaches the Rockies. The latest ECMWF and GFS show this low
slowly dissolving and lifting north into the northern High Plains by
Tuesday, but the base of the remnant trough will be moving out
across the Central High Plains, and there should be enough westerly
momentum in the mid levels to provide adequate deep layer shear for
organized severe thunderstorm activity.
Going into the middle part of next week, the southern branch of the
upper level jet will be moving into the Desert Southwest region,
which will continue the theme of southwest flow aloft, keeping some
form of the leeside trough/low in check at the surface just to our
west/southwest. As long as this pattern holds, strong/severe
thunderstorm activity will be in the cards for at least some portion
of western Kansas. There is some indication by late in the week that
very hot 850mb air will develop on the southern High Plains of 30+
degrees C, and if this is the case, we will see some 100-degree
afternoon temperatures for a fair portion of southwest Kansas
Thursday and/or Friday (toward the end of this forecast period).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
Quiet aviation weather is forecast today as an upper level ridge
of high pressure builds to the west of western Kansas.
Organized thunderstorm activity will remain south and east of the
terminals later this afternoon and evening. Winds are also
expected to remain just at or below 12 knots through the period
with VFR conditions forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 63 96 67 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 95 61 97 66 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 95 60 98 65 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 96 61 98 66 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 94 62 96 67 / 10 10 0 0
P28 95 66 96 69 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
