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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 191128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today compared to the last several days with highs in
  the 60s. After a brief warm-up Monday, another cold front
  will bring cooler readings for Tuesday.

- Next chance for rain will arrive Thursday and continue through
  at least Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Sharp upper trough currently extends from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Ozark region with some additional upper energy
about ready to come onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, cold front extends from far eastern MO into the
Arklatex region.

Upper pattern will remain very progressive, and by the
afternoon hours, the upper trough will extend from the Great
Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. At the same time, the western
CONUS shortwave will be digging across the Great Basin. Even
though highs today will be some of the coolest we have seen in
a couple weeks, thanks to good downslope conditions, will only
be a few degrees below seasonal normals. Shortwave trough will
continue to track quickly east and by early Mon afternoon will
be sliding across the Northern/central Plains. This will allow
another Pacific cold front to push through Mon afternoon into
the evening hours. Ahead of the front, above normal highs will
return to the area Monday with readings back into the 70s. This
will be short-lived as cold front knocks temps back down below
normal for Tuesday.

Models remain consistent in tracking a compact upper impulse
across Southern CA on Wed and into the Central Rockies on
Thursday. This will bring an increase in shower and storm
chances for Thursday and especially Thursday evening. This
feature is forecast to track across KS on Fri into Fri evening,
keeping fairly high precip chances around into Sat morning. The
model trends have been to slow the eastward progression of this
impulse down with each run. So this will be something to keep an
eye on with upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Main aviation concern will be some low level speed shear late
tonight.

Cold front moved through the area last evening and is now down
across southern TX. Surface high is currently working in from
the west and will allow clear skies to remain in place through
the next 24 hours. Northwest/west winds will gradually come
around to the southwest this afternoon with a few gusts
possible. South winds will not drop off much this evening and
just off of the surface, low level jet will ramp-up. This will
provide some low level speed shear after 06z across south
central KS with sw winds by 2,000ft in the 45-50kt range.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 191109 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 509 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 10 AM MDT this morning for western portions of the area. A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM CDT for eastern portions of the area. - Strong NW winds will accompany and follow a cold frontal passage early Monday morning. Sustained winds at 25-40 mph and gusts to 45-55 mph may create difficult travel conditions for high profile vehicles during both the morning and afternoon hours. Localized reductions in visibility assoc/w blowing dust may further aggravate travel difficulties and reduce air quality. - Strong NW winds and dry conditions may result in rapid and uncontrolled fire growth on Monday, should any fires develop. Outdoor burning is not advised. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect on Monday for eastern Colorado, where RH readings may fall below 15%. - Freezing temperatures are possible Tuesday morning, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Early this morning, a high pressure system is moving over the TX/OK Panhandle, which is keeping the sky clear. Temperatures, before midnight, have started dipping below freezing in various locations across the area. However, temperatures will likely start stabilizing by around 9Z for most of the CWA as southwesterly winds are expected to slightly increase to around 8-10 kts. That's not a lot, but it should be enough to keep the boundary layer mixed up and prevent temperatures from falling any lower than 28 degrees. Temperatures should start warming up fairly quickly after sunrise, any the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisories are projected to expire on time, potentially a little early. Winds will start picking up even more after sunrise. South- southwesterly winds are forecast throughout the day today with sustained speeds around 10-20 kts and gusts up around 25, maybe 30 kts. Temperatures should warm into the mid 70s today. Tonight, we will have another low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest. A cold front is expected to start moving into the northwestern CWA just before sunrise. Temperatures are expected to remain notably warmer tomorrow night, only cooling into the mid 40s, due to winds overnight keeping the layer mixed as that next low approaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Monday: An upper level trough presently moving ashore the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it progresses eastward across the northern Rockies (tonight) and Northern Plains (Mon). An associated mid-latitude cyclone in the lee of the northern Rockies will track ENE across the Dakotas (tonight) prior to slowing/intensifying over Minnesota (Mon). A cold front attendant the aforementioned cyclone will surge southeastward through the Tri-State area Monday morning (~10-15Z Mon). Guidance suggests that the strongest low-level cold advection and surface pressure rises will occur a few hours on either side of sunrise (~10-17Z Mon).. the onset of which could be accompanied by a short (~1-3 hour) period of strong NW winds (25-40 mph G 45-55 mph). Either way, modest low-level cold advection will persist into the afternoon, when deep vertical mixing (~6,000 to 8,000 ft AGL, up to ~700 mb) will assist in transporting ~30-45 knot NW flow to the surface. While guidance varies w/regard to the magnitude of flow within the mixed-layer during the afternoon.. there appears to be general agreement that the relative strongest [afternoon] winds (~25-40 mph G 45-55 mph) will be in northeast CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties. Expect highs in the 60's. Tuesday: Expect clear skies, dry conditions and 10-20 mph NW (east) to SW (west) winds.. as the (by then) mature and vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone over the Upper Midwest resumes a progressive (albeit slow) eastward motion across the Upper Great Lakes. Wednesday: Strengthening synoptic subsidence on the western fringe of a deep, broad amplifying trough /profound cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS will aid in the development and amplification of an upper level ridge over the Rockies/High Plains. Expect clear skies, dry conditions, light winds and a modest warming trend. Thursday-Saturday: Long range guidance indicates that a stalled/cut-off low offshore the southern Pacific Coast (600 miles offshore Baja, CA at 09Z this morning) will meander ashore southern CA (Wed) and track ENE-NE to the 4-Corners (Wed night).. then decrease in forward speed and slowly progress east across Central/Southern Plains Thu-Fri. Expect above average cloud cover, above average precipitation chances and near to slightly below average high temps. Average highs this time of year are ~65F. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 455 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025 GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period. Light WSW winds will back to the SW-SSW and increase to 15-25 knots within a few hours after sunrise.. at the onset of diurnal heating/mixing. SSW winds are expected to decrease to 12-17 knots by early afternoon.. as a surface trough in CO progresses east toward the KS border and the MSLP gradient weakens. S-SSW winds will weaken to ~10 knots after sunset and veer to the WSW late this evening/overnight. Winds will abruptly shift to the NW and strengthen to 20-30 knots in assoc/w a cold frontal passage at-or-around sunrise Monday morning.. at the very end of the 12Z TAF period. MCK: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period. Light WSW winds will back to the SW-SSW and increase to ~15 knots late this morning (~15-16Z) and persist through the afternoon. Winds will back to the S and decrease to ~10 knots after sunset, then veer to the SW-WSW after midnight. Winds will abruptly shift to the NW and strengthen to 20-30 knots in assoc/w a cold frontal passage at-or-around sunrise Monday morning.. at the very end of the 12Z TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Today: Watching for some locally critical fire weather conditions across eastern Colorado this afternoon. Winds are forecast to be from the southwest gusting 20-30 mph from the late morning hours through the afternoon where the higher gusts are favored but will see a gradual decline through the afternoon. Due to the low confidence in 3 or more hours occurring of critical conditions will forego any fire weather highlights. Monday: A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect on for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in eastern CO. A fair amount of uncertainty persists with regard to whether or not RH readings will fall to/below 15% for an appreciable amount of time during the afternoon.. especially east of the CO-KS border. Regardless of whether or not Red Flag Criteria is met, strong NW winds and dry conditions (RH readings 15-25% over the entire area) are apt to pose a challenge to first responders.. should any fires develop. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041. Frost Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ003-004-015- 016-028-029-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for COZ252>254. NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Vincent FIRE WEATHER...Trigg/Vincent
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 191033 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 533 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunny and cool weather is expected into the first half of next week. - The next chance for rain is forecast for Thursday night and into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A shortwave trough was passing to the east of the forecast area per the 07Z water vapor imagery. Upstream was another trough moving on shore over the Pacific Northwest. Surface obs showed high pressure centered over western KS with cooler and dryer with the surface ridge. There is pretty good agreement in the models with the overall pattern into the first half of the workweek. A general northwest flow is progged with the upper trough to the northwest passing through the plains on Monday. The progressive nature of the pattern is forecast to limit the time for moisture to return ahead of the next front Monday. So this next wave is expected to pass through the area dry in spite of some decent forcing and vertical motion. It will have the effect of keeping temps closer to seasonal normals though as another surface high builds south through the plains. And with models showing a quicker timing to the cold front Monday, have trended highs a little cooler across north central KS where winds are forecast to shift to the northwest by mid-day. A second upper level wave is progged to move into the central plains late in the week. There are differences in the strength of the closed upper low, but all of the operational solutions show a similar idea of a surface low passing mainly south of the forecast area with wrap around moisture potentially lifting over the forecast area. Think the POPs from the NBM are reasonable with chances generally in the 40 to 50 percent range. Timing of the wave is the main question and the spread in the ensembles have POPs in the forecast through Saturday. Think this window for precip will likely shrink in the coming days as models converge on a solution. Operational runs suggest the most likely timing for precip will be from Thursday evening through Friday evening. Models don't show much warm air advection in low levels through the week. So temps should remain around seasonal normals for this time of October. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Dry air and subsidence is expected to keep VFR conditions in place. There is a low potential for wind shear tonight as a 45KT LLJ develops. However models show a strengthening pressure gradient and turbulent mixing of the boundary layer. So will not include wind shear in the forecast. Later shifts to reevaluate this potential. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 191010 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 510 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning - Gusty northerly winds Monday afternoon - Medium chances (40-60%) for widespread rainfall late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 08z surface observations depict relatively light northwest winds around a surface high pressure system centered over eastern Colorado. This feature will continue to move into the central Plains throughout the morning, where light winds, clear skies, and chilly temperatures will continue. As a result, with temperatures in the middle 30s, areas of frost look probable. Frost Advisory remains in effect, and has been expanded a bit eastward, until 15z. Vigorous trough will swing out into the northern Plains late Sunday and into Monday. Cyclogenesis is anticipated east of the high terrain in the WY/SD/MT border region. The associated cyclones cold front will swing southward into the central High Plains during the day on Monday. With its passage, expecting winds to get quite gusty. Latest NBM probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph are rather high (50-80%) across nearly the entire FA, with probabilities of greater than 40 mph (20-30%) for north and northwest counties. Moisture will be limited, so no precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front. Into the later half of the upcoming week, the next system of note is the current cut-off low that is situated well off the southwest coast of California. It isn't until the influence of the next Pacific trough that will eventually pick it and move eastward. In response to the approaching trough and low pressure development across the northeastern New Mexico to southwest Kansas vicinity, Gulf moisture will advect northward into the High Plains. Exact northward extent of mentioned moisture is a bit uncertain until we get a better picture on a more precise location of the developing surface low. Though even with a track just south of the FA, could still lend to at least the chance for moderate precipitation. Nevertheless, NBM POPs maintaining 40-60%, with a higher emphasis east of Highway 283 at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 509 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Light winds this morning will give way to gusty winds later this afternoon. Expect winds to shift from westerly to more of a southerly component through the morning and into the afternoon. Winds will be sustained 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 25 knots at times. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-043-044- 062-063-074>077-084>087. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for KSZ061. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Bennett