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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 260520
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler and drier air mass will settle over the area tonight and
  Wednesday with moderating temperatures Thu-Fri.

- A fast moving storm system may bring a brief wintry mix to the
  area late Saturday.

- Probabilities for light wintry precipitation(20-30%) may
  return late Sun into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening and
tonight as surface high pressure builds into the area. This will set
the stage for a cold night with lows ranging from the mid 20s in
central KS to the low 30s in eastern KS.

Wed-Thu...mild and dry conditions are expected through the period as
we remain in a northwest flow regime. With sfc high pressure nosing
into  the area, we expect light winds and a mix of sun and high
clouds leading to tranquil weather conditions.

Friday-Saturday...as we move into Friday a shortwave trough is
progged to build into the Northern Rockies which will break down the
upper level ridge. The pressure gradient will also increase with
breezy southerly flow and another mild day anticipated. As we move
into the overnight hours on Friday/early Saturday, low level
moisture will gradually increase ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough. We will see increasing probabilities (30-60 percent) for
showers and we move into the predawn hours with steep mid-lvl lapse
rates and low lvl moisture transport taking aim on southern Kansas.
A strong cold front will usher in much colder air on Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening and we could see a brief transition
from rain to snow just before the precipitation comes to an end. With
a warm ground and such a brief window of opportunity for wintry
precipitation, the impacts are expected to remain minimal at this
time.

Sunday-Tuesday...much colder air is anticipated Sun-Mon with highs
remaining below freezing for many areas. Another shortwave trough
could impact the region late Sunday into Monday bringing a round of
light wintry precipitation to the area but confidence in the details
remains fairly low at this time. Temperatures may begin to moderate
a bit on Tuesday while remaining below average for early Dec.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region over the
next 24hrs with light northwest winds. Some mid level clouds
will move into the area during the late afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 260505 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1005 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving. - First round of snow is expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Light snowfall is forecast, but impacts to visibility are possible. - Second round of snow and the cold temperatures are expected to arrive Sunday night into Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Gusty to strong winds are ongoing in wake of cold front in response to a strong low pressure system across the northern Plains. A few sporadic wind gusts of 55-60 mph has been observed as the system has remained a bit more broad as what was anticipated. Tonight, winds will rapidly decline as the nocturnal inversion sets up remaining around 10-15 mph sustained. A surface high is forecast to move into the area bringing chilly temperatures in the teens as dew points are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens and continued weakening of the winds. I trended temperatures a few degrees lower than the previously forecast but due to winds slowly becoming more westerly which typically promotes temperatures from fully plummeting did not fully drop temperatures down to the current forecasted dew points. Wednesday, northwest flow is forecast to re-enforece itself across the area. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be in the low 40s to upper 40s with the coolest across the east in response to being in closer proximity to the cold front. Have actually increased temperatures a little bit due to southwesterly winds ongoing for the majority of the day. Have been noticing guidance has been picking up on a weak wave within the flow originating from the Cheyenne Ridge and increasing 850-700mb moisture and omega with the 15Z RAP13 run showing around 6-8 microbars in the 700-600mb level. Have introduced sprinkles into the forecast for northern portions of the area due to dry air remaining near the surface with perhaps some flurries mixing in after sunset as temperatures cool into the low to mid 30s but not anticipating any impacts with this activity. Thanksgiving Day continues to look tranquil as the northwest flow broadens out a bit through the day with near normal temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s forecast. Cloud cover is forecast to increase as the day goes as moisture advection occurs from the south. Still may need to keep an eye on some fog or stratus development Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning as surface winds become more south-southeasterly with the moisture advection. But at this time the threat for any hazards is less than 5% chance of occurring. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Starting the extended period Friday and through the weekend as the pattern then does become more active as a cold front remains forecast to move into the area. Not much has changed from the overnight shift's discussion as all of that continues to remain on track. Confidence does continue to increase in snowfall starting Friday night and into Saturday morning as the cold front interacts with the moisture advection from the south along with a developing surface low across southwest Kansas. There does continue to be some concern for a band or bands of snow along the front and any other mesoscale FGEN bands behind the front resulting in some blowing snow potential as the pressure gradient tightens. Current soil temperatures at the Goodland office is in the upper 40s but with some colder nights leading up to this the soil temperature may fall into the upper 30s/low 40s which may lead to some flash freeze potential on roadways or at least on elevated surfaces. Do continue to see the pockets of instability that the previous shift was discussing which does bring about some snow squall potential with this front. Still though even with the ground temperatures more than likely remaining above freezing most of the snowfall should melt on contact severely limiting accumulation potential. Light snowfall potential continues through the remainder of the weekend before coming to an end to start the new work week. With the consistent easterly upslope flow especially on Friday night and Saturday night freezing drizzle and freezing fog is also a possibility as well which may be even more impactful than just a light snow. As for temperatures, confidence is high in much colder air filtering into the region starting Saturday morning. High temperatures for the weekend are currently forecast to not get much if at all above freezing. I still think that the NBM is to warm on temperatures especially with the consistent CAA, cloud cover and the fact that arctic air masses are so shallow that guidance struggles to pick up on the true cold nature of them. With that being said confidence is around 50-60% that highs Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get out of the 20s. Same thing goes for low temperatures confidence is high that overnight temperatures will fall into the single digits and even in the realm of possibility of some below zero temperatures for the same reasoning as above. For the start of the week, confidence is low in the current temperatures in the forecast. I feel the NBM is loading in to much of the drier solutions and due to the chaotic synoptic pattern I would not be surprised if temperatures are 5-10 degrees cooler. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1002 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds continue to weaken as the center of higher pressure moves over the area. Winds should remain roughly from the west overnight, then shift to be more southerly during the day tomorrow. There is a possibility of flurries and sprinkles between 18 and 06Z as some mid-level moisture moves over the area. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 260446 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1046 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thanksgiving is looking cool and dry with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 40s. - Rain is likely (50-80% chance) by Saturday morning. Some light is forecast to develop through Saturday afternoon. - There is a 20-50% chance for some light snow accumulations Saturday afternoon and evening. - Very cold air is expected for Sunday and Monday with temperatures remaining below freezing and wind chills in the single digits and teens for much of that time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 20Z water vapor imagery showed a low pressure system over the northern plains moving into the Upper Midwest and another wave off the coast of the Alaskan panhandle. Surface obs had a low over southern MN with a trailing cold front across western MO and southeast KS. The short term forecast is for windy but dry conditions to prevail through tonight. Models keep a strong enough pressure gradient at the surface for winds to remain gusty through the evening and perhaps into Wednesday morning. But the low pressure system to the north should not have an impact to our weather other than the windy conditions. I would not be surprised based on the RAP and HRRR progs if a few locations near the NEB state line flirt with wind advisory criteria with gusts near 40 mph. But these magnitude of wind gusts look to be so short lived that a wind advisory wouldn't make a lot of sense. Models are in pretty good agreement in some mid level frontogenesis developing Wednesday night with good saturation for some light precip. Forecast soundings show good vertical motion through the mid clouds, but forecast some very dry air below 800MB or about the lowest 5 KFT. So the question is does the forcing and saturation win out over the low level dry air? The GFS is the only solution developing QPF and the CAMs are hard pressed to show much reflectivity. Decided to hold off on adding a mention of precip to the forecast thinking if it does develop, it should be so light as to not provide much of an impact. Though if it does reach the ground, wetbulb cooling would argue for flurries or light snow passing through central KS Wednesday evening. Later shifts can take another look at this. The weather for Thanksgiving looks quiet if not on the cool side. Mostly sunny skies may help make it feel a little warmer, but surface ridging and light winds are expected to keep highs in the lower to middle 40s. The big weather maker is anticipated to impact the forecast area Friday night and through the day Saturday. 12Z guidance is in reasonable agreement of an open shortwave passing through the central U.S. bringing a strong cold front through the area Saturday afternoon. Good moisture advection ahead of the front and the forcing from the wave is expected to cause precipitation (50 to 80 percent chance) initially in the form of rain to develop late Friday night. As the cold front passes and temps begin to fall, the rain may change over to light snow Saturday afternoon and evening. This is supported by the 00Z ensembles and the NBM seems to handle the situation pretty well. The expectation is for some minor if any accumulations mainly on grassy surfaces. Since the dynamics are mainly frontal driven, the opportunity for sustained snowfall is limited by the dry air moving in behind the front. The operational GFS seems to be on outlier with it's QPF prog Saturday afternoon. It appears as though it is trying to form a mesoscale band of precip. But it is difficult to see how moisture could wrap around to the cold side of the front while the warm conveyor belt remains out ahead of the front. The NBM mean QPF forecast seems reasonable with amounts generally a tenth of an inch or less as the cold air moves in. And the probability for measurable snowfall (i.e. greater than 0.1 inch) is in the 20 to 50 percent range. Probabilities for an inch or more fall to 25 percent or less. Behind the front a Canadian high is progged to build in to the central plains through Monday. This is expected to bring sub freezing temperatures to the area for Sunday and Monday with wind chills in the single digits and teens for most of that time. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the synoptic pattern early next week. Cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles showed there was still a good chunk of ensembles leaving energy over the southwest, and the 12Z ECMWF, while not completely cutting off an upper low, has trended towards a deeper low over the southwest. In any case surface high pressure over the central plains and a more southern track to shortwave energy may keep precip chances to the south of the area. Confidence in the forecast for early next week is low until models converge on how the pattern will evolve. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Northwest winds 10-15 kts with occasional gusts will continue at KTOP and KFOE through mid afternoon tomorrow. Winds will be a bit weaker farther west towards KMHK. Winds weaken tomorrow evening, while mid-level clouds increase. Also watching the potential for a brief flurry tomorrow evening towards KMHK, though confidence in this remains very low. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 260445 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread hard/killing freeze in the 20s Wednesday morning. - Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Friday. - A strong arctic cold front is scheduled to arrive Saturday morning. North winds Saturday will gust near 50 mph, with falling temperatures during the day Saturday. - Wind chill indices near zero degrees Sunday and Monday mornings, with afternoon temperatures struggling to get above freezing. - Light snow northeast zones Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A ridge of high pressure will drop southward across the FA through the morning hours. The pressure gradient will relax as this occurs. The breezy NW/N winds will weaken by dusk. Uneventful weather will prevail tonight through Friday. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 20s. For Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will shift off to the E/SE. Light southerly flow will develop in its wake. Highs tomorrow will be in the mix of 40s in the north to around 50F in the south. There could be a smattering of high clouds by evening. Again, the weather pattern will remain uneventful. For Turkey day, the weather pattern continues to remain banal. Dry upper level northwesterly flow will prevail with light southerly flow at the sfc. The net result is a quiescent weather pattern for the day. Highs again should be in the mix of 40s and 50s. Lows in the 20s. These are near normal temperatures for the year. More of the same is expected for Friday, with just a few degrees warmer in both highs and lows. Attention then turns to the weekend. Some good news is that the outlier GFS from yesterday has come in agreement with the deterministic EC as well as both the EPS and GEFS. Have higher confidence of a slug of Arctic air advecting in across the FA over the weekend. Much colder highs with values in the 30s and lows in the teens are now forecast by the trending colder NBM. It will probably be also windier than forecast, as a stout 40-50 kt 850 hPa jet looks to develop in the wake of the strong front. As far as precipitation is concerned, there could be an opportunity of a wintry mix Sunday and Monday. Confidence though in moisture is lower than temperatures. Something to watch. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR and variable amounts of mid and high clouds. Winds will be light, less than 12 kts, through the period, variable in direction. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Turner