ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 292036
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold airmass moving into the area with single digit wind
chills tonight into Sunday morning with highs on Sunday 15 to
20 degrees below normal.
- Chances continue to increase for impactful snow on Monday,
with many locations across central KS likely picking up more
than an inch.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Upper impulse is currently tracking across MO and southern IA with
precip moving out of KS. Strong northwest winds are in place across
most of the forecast area as this wave departs with wind speeds
likely being enhanced by breaks in the clouds, allowing for
pockets of better mixing. Some instability snow showers
developed a couple hours ago over southern Nebraska and may
work their way into the area later this afternoon.
Northwest winds will quickly decrease as sunset approaches as the
shortwave rotates through the Mid Mississippi Valley. Still looking
for unseasonably cold air to spill south tonight, providing
single digit wind chills Sun morning and highs on Sun struggling
to make it above freezing. These readings will be 15 to 20
degrees below seasonal highs. On Sun, our next upper impulse
will be digging across the Great Basin and into the Southern
Rockies by Mon morning. This feature will then slide across the
KS/OK border during the day.
Snow will first start early Mon morning across southwest
Nebraska/northwest KS as mid level isentropic lift increases. Snow
will spread east and southeast Mon morning with models consistent
showing some mid level frontogenesis setting up generally along
I-70 with the bulk of omega in the prime snow growth region.
GFS and NAM agree on the higher snow totals further north,
generally along I-70. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has maintained its
further south track and has the higher totals near Highway 50.
NBM snow probs continue the increasing trend with greater than
60% chance for an inch or more for much of central and northeast
KS. Yesterday at this time, these same probs were around 50%.
So confidence continues to increase in an impactful snowfall,
especially for areas north of Highway 50. By late Mon afternoon,
snow will be departing southeast KS and will be out of the
forecast area by early Mon evening.
For Tue into Wed, we are still anticipating a Western CONUS
shortwave to dig across CA and into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile,
a Polar upper low will migrate across Ontario and will keep below
normal temps in place from the Plains through the Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Some lingering IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually mix out from west to
east as we move through the afternoon hours, however far
southeast Kansas may be slower to erode with some MVFR cigs
impacting KCNU into the evening hours. Gusty northwest winds
around 30-45 knots at times will also persist in the wake of a
cold front before slowly diminishing this evening and tonight.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 291944
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1244 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong northerly winds will steadily decline this afternoon,
becoming light/variable this evening.
- Below normal temperatures expected through early next week,
coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the
freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits
with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.
- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday night through
mid-day Monday. Light winds, minimal impact(s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
Overview: An upper level wave in British Columbia (today) will
dig SSE through the Pacific Northwest (tonight), Intermountain
West (Sun) and 4-Corners (Sun night) then progress ESE-E across
the Southern Plains (Mon). In the lower levels, 1035-1040 mb
Arctic high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies (today)
will slowly shift ESE-SE across the Dakotas and Central Plains
(tonight-Sun) then E across the Central MS River Valley (Mon).
Tonight: Strong northerly low-level flow in the wake of an
Arctic cold frontal passage this morning will weaken from west
to east this afternoon. Breezy N winds will rapidly diminish
after sunset. Mostly clear skies, light winds and a newly
deposited Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures
-8 to -11C) will foster strong radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows in the single digits.
Sunday: With Arctic high pressure situated over the Dakotas and
Central Plains.. the Arctic airmass in place over the Tri-
State area will persist, unmodified. This.. along with
increasing upper level cloud cover / dense high overcast
downstream of the upper wave digging SSE through the
Intermountain West will foster well below average highs in the
mid-upper 20s.
Sunday night-Monday: Expect slightly warmer, albeit still well-
below normal temperatures. Guidance continues to indicate a
potential for light precipitation (snow) over the region late
Sunday night through mid-day Monday.. as the aforementioned
upper wave progresses E-ESE from the 4-Corners to the Southern
Plains. 12Z 11/29 operational guidance continues to suggest that
precipitation coverage, location and amounts will be rather
sensitive to the precise track/evolution of the upper wave.
Despite inconsistency w/regard to specifics.. guidance has been,
and continues to be, in good agreement with regard to the
broader/bigger picture -- i.e. a progressive system with
relatively low precipitation amounts (light snow accum) in a
synoptic setup/pattern that strongly favors light winds. In
other words.. minimal impact(s).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
Zonal flow to start the period on Tuesday will give way to a
broad trough which digs into the Rockies Tuesday night, remains
somewhat stationary Wednesday and Thursday, then lifts out on
Friday with a ridge building in from the west. Ensembles showing
little more than a few flurries or light snow (less than a half
inch) with the upper trough on Wednesday, otherwise the period
is dry. Do not see any wind associated with this system and
afternoon relative humidity minimums remain well above critical
levels. So what is left is mainly a temperature forecast. Will
begin the period somewhat mild with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s Tuesday, cooling off slightly to the upper 30s on
Wednesday, then mid 40s on Thursday and around 50 by Friday with
the building ridge. Low temperatures will be in the teens and
20s, coldest Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
GLD: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
will abate late this morning. VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40 KT) northerly winds this
morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT during the early afternoon
and ~20-30 KT by late afternoon. Winds will further weaken at
sunset and become light/variable this evening. Winds will remain
light/variable overnight. Winds will shift to the SE and
modestly increase to 10-15 KT late Sunday morning.. near the end
of the 18Z TAF period.
MCK: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
remain possible through early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40
KT) northerly winds this morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT
during the early afternoon and ~20-30 KT during the late
afternoon. Winds will further weaken at sunset and become
light/variable this evening. Light/variable winds will prevail
through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent
FXUS63 KGLD 291958
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1258 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong northerly winds will steadily decline this afternoon,
becoming light/variable this evening.
- Below normal temperatures expected through early next week,
coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the
freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits
with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.
- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday night through
mid-day Monday. Light winds, minimal impact(s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
Overview: An upper level wave in British Columbia (today) will
dig SSE through the Pacific Northwest (tonight), Intermountain
West (Sun) and 4-Corners (Sun night) then progress ESE-E across
the Southern Plains (Mon). In the lower levels, 1035-1040 mb
Arctic high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies (today)
will slowly shift ESE-SE across the Dakotas and Central Plains
(tonight-Sun) then E across the Central MS River Valley (Mon).
Tonight: Strong northerly low-level flow in the wake of an
Arctic cold frontal passage this morning will weaken from west
to east this afternoon. Breezy N winds will rapidly diminish
after sunset. Mostly clear skies, light winds and a newly
deposited Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures
-8 to -11C) will foster strong radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows in the single digits.
Sunday: With Arctic high pressure situated over the Dakotas and
Central Plains.. the Arctic airmass in place over the Tri-
State area will persist, unmodified. This.. along with
increasing upper level cloud cover / dense high overcast
downstream of the upper wave digging SSE through the
Intermountain West will foster well below average highs in the
mid-upper 20s.
Sunday night-Monday: Expect slightly warmer, albeit still well-
below normal temperatures. Guidance continues to indicate a
potential for light precipitation (snow) over the region late
Sunday night through mid-day Monday.. as the aforementioned
upper wave progresses E-ESE from the 4-Corners to the Southern
Plains. 12Z 11/29 operational guidance continues to suggest that
precipitation coverage, location and amounts will be rather
sensitive to the precise track/evolution of the upper wave.
Despite inconsistency w/regard to specifics.. guidance has been,
and continues to be, in good agreement with regard to the
broader/bigger picture -- i.e. a progressive system with
relatively low precipitation amounts (light snow accum) in a
synoptic setup/pattern that strongly favors light winds. In
other words.. minimal impact(s).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
Long range guidance suggests a predominantly dry pattern
(little potential for precipitation) characterized by a modest
warming trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region /
drains downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return
flow pattern ensues.. followed by a cooling trend assoc/w
another cold frontal passage mid-week.. followed by a modest
warming trend late-week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
GLD: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
will abate late this morning. VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40 KT) northerly winds this
morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT during the early afternoon
and ~20-30 KT by late afternoon. Winds will further weaken at
sunset and become light/variable this evening. Winds will remain
light/variable overnight. Winds will shift to the SE and
modestly increase to 10-15 KT late Sunday morning.. near the end
of the 18Z TAF period.
MCK: Scattered to occasionally broken ceilings at ~2,500 ft AGL
remain possible through early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong (~30-40
KT) northerly winds this morning will decrease to ~25-35 KT
during the early afternoon and ~20-30 KT during the late
afternoon. Winds will further weaken at sunset and become
light/variable this evening. Light/variable winds will prevail
through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 292026
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Wind Advisory continues through 6 PM this evening for
portions of north central and east central Kansas.
- Dry, but cold tonight into Sunday. Wind chills will be in the single
digits by sunrise Sunday and only reach the 20s by Sunday
afternoon.
- A fast-moving round of snow will impact the area Sunday night through
the day Monday. Generally expecting 1-3 inches of snow to
accumulate across the area.
- Below-normal temperatures continue through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
A mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front have pushed east of
the area this afternoon, allowing for precipitation to end and much
colder air to build in across northeast Kansas. Gusty northwest
winds have taken control with sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and
gusts of 35-45 MPH observed. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
through 6 PM this evening for areas along and southwest of a
Washington to Manhattan to Garnett line. Winds remain breezy
overnight with the main uncertain revolving around cloud cover.
Some guidance keeps low clouds in place with while others have
clearing skies. Clouds continue to stream in from the north, so
think clouds will hold on through at least most of the overnight
period, perhaps even into Sunday morning. It will be cold
regardless of cloud cover with lows Sunday morning in the teens
and wind chills in the single digits! Not much warming will take
place through the day with highs only reaching into the 20s.
A positively-tilted, fast-moving shortwave ejects across the Plains
Sunday night through the day Monday. With cold air in place,
confidence is high in all precipitation being snow with this wave.
Given the progressive nature, precipitation amounts will be on the
lighter side, generally between 0.15-0.25" of liquid. However, SLRs
will be above climatology given the cold airmass in place, likely in
the 13-16:1 range. Even with light QPF amounts, the SLR/QPF
combination will produce a widespread 1-3 inches of snow across
the area. There is still a spread of about 0.1" of QPF between
the 25-75th percentiles of ensembles with the majority (75% of
ENS, GEFS, and GEPS members) falling within the 0.1-0.3" QPF
range. There is a long tail on the high end with about 15
percent of the members showing greater than 0.3" of QPF. There
are also some differences latitudinally in the location of
heaviest snow with a subtle northward shift noted in guidance.
With all of that said, there is high confidence in measurable
snow falling across the entire area, medium confidence in a
swath of 1-3 inches within the forecast area, and low
confidence in any amounts exceeding 3". Could still see a shift
in the track of this system or an increase/decrease in expected
QPF and snow amounts, but this looks to be a stoutly advisory-
level snow event with minor to moderate impacts to travel from
falling and accumulating snow.
Snow comes to an end Monday evening, leaving dry conditions through
at least mid-week. Low-level winds briefly become southerly on
Tuesday before another cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of
cold air for the middle of the week. Frontal passage is favored to
be dry, but will keep temperatures below-normal with lows ranging
from the single digits to the low 20s and highs in the 20s and 30s.
There is a signal for slightly warmer temperatures and low chances
for precipitation by the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Conditions have largely lifted to MVFR, although could see brief
drops to IFR through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will hold
into the evening, but confidence in when or if VFR conditions
return is low. Some guidance keeps MVFR cigs through much of the
period while other bring clear skies overnight. Have went
somewhere in between these two scenarios, but will need to
monitor trends this afternoon and evening and update as needed.
Northwest winds have become gusty and will remain so through the
day before gradually weakening overnight and into Sunday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ054-KSZ058-
KSZ059.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 292003
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens
- Cold air continues through Sunday
- A quick moving system will bring light accumulations to parts of
southwest and north central Kansas on Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
19Z upper air analysis shows a rapidly exiting shortwave which is
moving towards the Great Lakes with strong cold air advection on the
western side of the system. 850 mb temps have fallen to -7 to -8
(C) in western Kansas and is as cold as -13 (C) in western Nebraska.
At the surface the 1011 mb low is centered in western Missouri with
a 1027 mb high in eastern Montana which is leading to the strong
pressure gradient and northwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts over
40 mph.
Tonight winds should diminish through the evening and overnight
hours as the surface high slides into northern Kansas by sunrise. A
developing mid level shortwave will introduce some high and mid
level clouds through the night. Despite the little cloud cover the
lighter winds combined with the core of colder air hanging through
western Kansas should allow lows to fall into the lower to mid teens.
Sunday with northeast winds for most of the day (switching to the
southeast near the Colorado border by late in the day), zonal flow
aloft bringing in mid to high level cloud cover, and not much
suggestion of diurnal heating to moderate the polar air
mass...temperatures will struggle to rise through the day. I went
with the colder NBM solution for MaxT and hourly Ts which would put
highs generally in the upper 20s across much of southwest Kansas. By
late Sunday afternoon a developing storm system in the intermountain
west will bring a negative tilt trough into the central plains by
mid Monday morning.
Monday short and medium term models continue to show a band of light
snow developing with a 700 mb fgen axis roughly from Elkhart to
Hays with the strongest lift in the dendritic growth zone closer to
Hays between 12-18Z. Models are still showing some timing
disagreements with the NAM being the slower of the models which
would lag the timeframe of snow more into the afternoon. Given the
open and progressive nature of the shortwave and hints of the trough
going less negative as it moves into Kansas I stuck with the faster
solution for POPs which puts the highest prob (30-40%) from Dodge
City to Hays. The most likely scenario is a band of snow developing
along the intensifying fgen band in these areas with the better
potential of accumulating snow as you move into north central Kansas
as the lift improves. Accumulations could reach around 1 inch near
Hays to Larned (around 50% Probability) with the rest of the area
showing greater odds of under 1 inch of snow (75-100% probability).
Winds aren't expected to intensify so winter weather impacts look to
stay minor at this point for the I-70 corridor and areas around
Ness City to Larned.
After Monday LREF upper air patterns keep us generally in northwest
to zonal flow for the rest of the week with no great opportunities
for precipitation on the horizon. Temperatures should also stay
fairly seasonal as the polar air is trending to stay off to the
northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Cloud cover should quickly dissipate with a departing upper
level wave and cigs should rise from MVFR to VFR shortly around
18Z. Post frontal winds will stay strong through the afternoon
and early evening hours sustained at 20-25 kts with gusts of
30-40 kts. Winds should gradually relax between 00-06Z and fall
to around 10 kts after 06Z. A deck of cirrus clouds is expected
later tonight through Sunday however we should see cigs remain
in VFR category for all terminals through the rest of the time
period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
