ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 022309
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
509 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of very light snow flurries spreading south from later tonight
through Wednesday night. No accumulation or adverse impacts
expected.
- Turning colder and breezy Wednesday--Thursday, with single
digit wind chills early Thursday. This will likely be the
coldest period of the next 7-10 days.
- Moderating temperatures Friday--Saturday, with another cool down
Sunday--Monday.
- A possible return to above average temperatures by Tuesday or
Wednesday of next week.
- Major storm systems look unlikely the next 7-10 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
PRECIPITATION:
A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak-
modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper
trough should support areas of very light snow flurries and
sprinkles later tonight through early Thursday. For tonight,
thinking they will be confined to mainly I-70 counties. From
Wednesday through early Thursday, these very light snow flurry
chances should gradually shift/expand south through the rest of
central, eastern, and southern Kansas. Rather high cloud bases and
only weak to modest lift will prevent any accumulation or adverse
impacts with any of this activity.
Otherwise, per deterministic and ensemble consensus, mostly dry
northwest flow is expected through the next 7-10 days, which should
support mostly dry weather. The only exception could be some light
wintry precipitation late Saturday through Sunday as a shortwave
moves southeast through the region and a cold front moves south.
Quite a bit of uncertainty with this system, with the GFS being more
bullish compared to the ECMWF and CMC. Either way, a major storm
system looks unlikely. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in
the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Arctic high pressure will plunge south into Mid-America Wednesday
and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average temperatures and
breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday morning will likely be
the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with single digit wind chills
likely.
Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before
another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday,
but probably not as cold as Wednesday--Thursday.
Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a
return to above average temperatures by Tuesday/Wednesday of next
week, as a stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds
east out of the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the
50s and overnight lows in the 30s look probable.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Main aviation concerns will be MVFR cigs and breezy north winds
following a cold front passing through the area Wednesday
morning. Tried to time these out similar to the 18Z cycle with
cigs expected to fall from north to south and eventually
impacting all sites except for CNU by late morning/early
afternoon. Could even see some brief IFR at central KS sites but
decided to keep as SCT for this cycle. Otherwise, look for
north winds in central and south central KS to sustain around 15
kts and gusts to 20-25 kts by late morning and lasting through
the end of the period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 022327
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
427 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is forecast to develop over mainly western portions
of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday night.
Most of the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern
Colorado and potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.
- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
lead to minor/nuisance travel impacts.
- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
to low teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Over the next few hours, the surface low over Southeast
Colorado into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. As the low
slides east, mid and low level moisture and cooler air will push
south over the Tri-State area during the late evening to
overnight hours and merge with the moisture pushing east across
the Colorado Rockies. Along with the increase in moisture, we
are also looking at an area of vorticity at the 500-700 mb level
primarily along and west of the Colorado border which will
provide forcing and the potential for flurries and light snow
through Wednesday night. There is also a cold front moving south
providing additional frontogenesis after sunrise tomorrow.
We could see flurries as early as 5-6 pm MT in Western portions
of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado with light snow
moving in between 8-10 pm MT off of the Palmer Divide. Majority
of the measurable snow is expected to be in Colorado and the
neighboring Kansas and Nebraska counties. Flurries are possible
across the area given the decent moisture profile. The peak for
snowfall is currently expected to be during the day tomorrow
with snow tapering off from north to south by 12 am MT (Midnight
MT) Wednesday night. The latest forecast has snow amounts up to
2-3" in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO)
counties with the remainder of those counties and the
surrounding ones looking at a trace to 1". There is a chance
that most of the snow falls west of our area over the Palmer
Divide and along the Front Range, resulting in amounts of an 1"
or less for western portions of the area. The western halves of
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60%
chance of seeing an inch of snow or more. There is only a ~40%
chance of localized accumulations of an inch east of the
Colorado border, and the potential rapidly declines farther
east. This snow is expected to be powdery with snow to liquid
ratios of 12-16:1. Some blowing snow is possible late Wednesday
morning to afternoon, but is not expected to be much more than a
nuisance due to the north to northeast winds of 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph.
Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 20s thanks to
the cold air moving in overnight. With the area-wide overcast
skies and falling snow for those out west, temperatures are not
expected to warm up much for highs on Wednesday with
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows could fall
into the teens Wednesday night with potential for wind chills
Thursday morning to be in the single digits to low teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Overview: A pronounced omega block (the center/ridge of which
will be anchored over the eastern Pacific) will hold sway /
dominate the synoptic pattern over the western half of the CONUS
late this week through early next week, fostering a prolonged
period of WNW-NW flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains..
while a deep cyclonic gyre/vortex in eastern Canada (centered in
vicinity of Hudson Bay) maintains troughing / cyclonic flow
aloft over the eastern CONUS.
Below average forecast confidence. Long range guidance suggests
that episodic shortwaves rounding the northern periphery of the
ridge in the eastern Pacific will traverse the Northern and
Central Plains in NW-WNW flow aloft late this week through early
next week. Forecast uncertainty in this period largely stems
from potential interactions between shortwave energy rounding
the northern periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge and
shortwave energy rounding the west and southwest periphery of
the cyclonic gyre in Canada. Broadly speaking, in such a
pattern, one would expect unsettled weather (periodically, at
least). 12Z 12/02 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest dry
conditions.. with occasional precipitation confined to the
Rockies and/or Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
GLD: VFR conditions will prevail this evening and most of
tonight. MVFR ceilings will rapidly develop after a cold frontal
passage shortly before sunrise (~12Z) Wed. IFR ceilings and
light snow are possible after the frontal passage, during the
mid-late morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings
are likely to persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF
period. Light/variable winds will prevail this evening and most
of tonight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 12-17
knots during the cold frontal passage (~12Z Wed) with gusts to
~25 knots possible through mid-late morning. Winds will
gradually veer to the NE and ENE during the afternoon.
MCK: VFR conditions will prevail this evening and most of
tonight. MVFR ceilings will rapidly develop after a cold frontal
passage ~10Z Wed morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist
into the afternoon.. eventually lifting to VFR (~3,500 ft AGL)
by the end of the 00Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will
prevail this evening and most of tonight. Winds will shift to
the N and increase to ~14-18 knots during the cold frontal
passage (~10Z Wed) and persist through early afternoon. Winds
will veer to the NE and decrease to 8-12 knots during the late
afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 022355
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
555 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild tonight but cold air returns Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday.
- Flurries and sprinkles possible late tonight into Wednesday night.
- Dry with near normal temperatures Friday into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Northwest upper flow regime from the Pacific Northwest to the
central CONUS has backed in the short term with cirrus making its
way over the central Rockies downstream of an upper wave digging
over California. Lee troughing has allowed for decent warm-air
advection over the snow field over much of the area with temperatures
at to well above freezing at 19Z.
Continued south to southwest flow near the surface under increasing
high cloud should lead to steady temperatures for the late evening
and overnight. Most guidance indicates a few weak mid-level waves
traversing the area later tonight and again Wednesday. Forcing for
ascent looks weak and low-level moisture is largely lacking, though
does increase for a several hour period behind a cold front that
will surge southeast across the area late tonight into early
Wednesday afternoon. The coincidence of these waves with the greater
low-level saturation is not ideal but there is enough concern to
mention trace precip; the vast majority of models fail to generate
measurable precipitation. Temperatures behind the front may fall in
the afternoon for central and northern areas given strong 925 mb CAA
and little insolation. Overall, temperatures with this next front
have trended a bit warmer than earlier but lows still approach
record low values at TOP with wind chill in the single digits above
0 much of Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
Northwest flow persists into early next week though becomes more
zonal, which should keep significant cold surges more in check. A
modest wave around Saturday night will need to be monitored, but
precipitation chances look low beyond Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR conditions through mid-morning tomorrow until FROPA occurs
with a front moving in from north to south across the area.
Behind the front, expect low stratus around or above FL015 to
remain in place through the afternoon. A few gusts accompany
frontal passage lasting into the evening hours before relaxing.
Conditions for LLWS overnight tonight are looking only
marginally strong with winds increasing aloft through FL020.
Since only marginal impacts are anticipated, have not mentioned
in the forecast at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...
Current Record Forecast
Topeka 8, set in 1902 10
Concordia -2, set in 1886 8
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Poage
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 022335
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
next 7-10 days, through at least December 11th.
- Temperatures return to early December normals Tuesday
afternoon.
- Windy and much colder, with low clouds behind a strong cold
front Wednesday.
- Scattered snow flurries Wednesday night, especially west of
Dodge City. Minor snow accumulations possible near the
Colorado border, with little impact expected.
- A series of dry cold front passages will continue this weekend
and early next week, with temperature and wind fluctuations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Midday surface observations showed the cold airmass eroding
nicely, with return flow establishing and south winds gusting
to near 30 mph. Satellite imagery depicted only scattered
cirrus, and the narrow band of snowcover from near Dighton to
near Hays. Outside of this narrow snow melting zone, afternoon
temperatures will easily warm back to normal, in the lower to
mid 50s.
The next cold front will race through SW KS tonight, easily
clearing the Oklahoma border by sunrise Wednesday. South winds
will trend light and variable this evening, followed by a sharp
increase in north winds toward sunrise. Mid and high clouds will
increase rapidly tonight, as the next shortwave dives south to
near Las Vegas by morning. Boundary layer mixing and the
increasing clouds will hold temperatures near normal in the 20s
Wednesday morning.
Much colder air dramatically returns Wednesday, with models
showing strong pressure rises, and temperatures either
flatlining or slowly falling through the day. Lowered
temperatures about 5 degrees across the board from NBM, with
MOS guidance suggesting it will be a struggle to get above
freezing. In addition to the strong cold air advection, lowering
stratus ceilings are anticipated, with the overcast also
contributing to the winter chill. Followed the stronger NBM
90%ile/12z MAV guidance for the stronger northeast winds
expected Wednesday. Most locations will be dry for most of
Wednesday. As the shortwave reaches the Four Corners by late
afternoon, scattered flurries or light snow are probable west of
US 83. Increased pops some along the Colorado line, but amounts
and impacts will be limited to nil.
Scattered flurries are possible Wednesday night, especially
western zones west of Dodge City, on the periphery of the
shortwave's forcing for ascent. The probability of measurable
snow is <15% for most zones, which will carry a dry forecast. A
dusting to 1/2 inch is possible adjacent to Colorado Wednesday
night, and these amounts are reflected on the updated QPF/snow
grids. Snow impacts from this system will be tied to upslope
along the I-25 corridor in Colorado/New Mexico, well west of SW
KS. Shortwave will weaken as it ejects onto the plains amid
confluent flow Thursday, with a completely dry forecast
resuming. Despite cloud cover, surface ridging building in from
northeast Kansas will deliver a very cold Thursday sunrise in
the teens. Southwest winds return Thursday afternoon, but this
will be recirculated continental polar air, as such another
uncomfortable afternoon in the 30s is forecast.
Friday temperatures will attempt to moderate back closer to
normal, in the upper 40s and lower 50s at 3 pm. Friday through
Monday, dry NWly midlevel will persist per all global models.
This is a very dry synoptic pattern for SW KS during the cold
season, and is accompanied by several dry cold fronts with
temperature and wind speed/direction fluctuations. Timing
issues of frontal passages from the various models aside, no
impacts are expected, as none of the cold fronts will usher in
exceptionally cold air. The cold fronts will also not allow us
to warm above normal, so NBM temperature grids holding near
normal in the extended appear correct. High confidence SW KS
will remain dry through at least December 11th, with moisture
lacking for any frontal passages. A strong warming trend appears
likely after December 10th, with the CPC carrying a 70%
probability of above normal temperatures during this timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
This TAF period, a cold front will be moving south and lead to
an increase in low clouds/stratus and deterioration of flight
category down into IFR and even intermittent LIFR. North-
northeast winds behind the front will range 15 to 22 knots
sustained with gusts 30+ knots at times for a 1 to 3 hour period
during greatest pressure rises behind the front. Light snow is
forecast to spread across far southwest and far west central
Kansas, but at this time, the best forecast is to keep snow out
of GCK and LBL terminals given fairly low probability of
reduction of visibility due to snow at either GCK or LBL.
Following TAF updates will need to refine this snow forecast for
GCK and LBL.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
