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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 091133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon-tonight, but confidence is low.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday evening through mid next
  week.

- Warming trend through Friday, with a cool down this weekend.
  Another cool down possible by mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

PRECIPITATION:

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...The overall thunderstorm forecast
confidence today-tonight is low. 850-700mb warm advection and
moisture transport is supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development early this morning across southern SD and NE. Short-term
guidance is struggling on where to track this convection, especially
the 00z runs of the 3km NAM, NSSL-WRF, and WRF-ARW, with some of
this guidance barreling a thunderstorm complex south into the
forecast area as early as this morning. Thinking these solutions are
overdone. A more plausible scenario is increasing isolated to
scattered thunderstorm chances from the northwest this evening-
tonight, especially over central KS. If storms can manage to form,
strong instability in concert with marginal shear will support at
least an isolated severe threat, with the main threats damaging
winds and marginal hail.

THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...A potent shortwave approaching from the
west is expected to initiate scattered to numerous thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon across the western High Plains in vicinity of a
lee trough. This activity should then track east-southeast into the
forecast area during the evening-night. Strong instability along
with slightly better shear should support a hail/wind threat,
especially northwest of the forecast area. By the time activity
reaches central KS, the primary hazards should be isolated damaging
wind gusts.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A strong cold front approaching from the
north will likely be the focus for scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon-evening-night across the region. As has been the case,
strong instability and marginal shear will support a handful of
strong to severe storms, along with locally heavy rain.

THIS WEEKEND-MID NEXT WEEK...The unsettled weather pattern
continues, with off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances continuing in
vicinity of a stalled frontal zone amidst additional upper energy
approaching from the west. Thinking chances this weekend will be
best over southern KS. As we take a look ahead, deterministic
consensus progress a strong cold front into the region by Tuesday
night or Wednesday, supporting additional storm chances.

TEMPERATURES:

A building upper ridge will support warming temperatures this week,
reaching the mid-upper 90s by Thursday-Friday. Thereafter, a cold
front will support a cool down this weekend back into the 80s to
near 90 degrees. With deterministic and ensemble consensus keeping
the upper ridge at bay, along with periodic thunderstorm chances,
there is a low chance for a prolonged period of intense above
average summer heat the next 7-10 days. A significant cool down is
possible by Wednesday-Thursday of next week, as deterministic
consensus progresses a strong cold front south into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

An area of IFR to low MVFR clouds is expected to impact mainly
southeast Kansas through about mid-morning. Thinking CNU TAF
site will be impacted the most, and possibly ICT as well.

For this evening and overnight, thinking shower/storm chances
will increase across central and north-central KS, as a
thunderstorm complex or two rolls southeast off the High
Plains. Activity may tend to weaken/dissipate with southeastward
extent, but could possibly reach as far southeast as RSL, GBD,
and SLN. The primary hazard will be 40-60 mph wind gusts with
the strongest activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 091111 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 511 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week at least with the main threat of damaging winds. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Northwest flow continues over the plains around a ridge centered over the Four Corners. CAMs continue to be highly variable in this pattern with significant run-to-run differences due to mesoscale features driving the convection. General thinking for today is that afternoon storms may develop along remnant outflow boundaries, with low confidence on where/when/and even if that will happen. Better chances and somewhat higher confidence in a complex developing in the Nebraska panhandle associated with an upper wave and then moving southeast this evening, impacting areas east of Highway 25. Afternoon storms, if they develop, will have up to 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE to work with and 30-35kts of deep layer shear, so could produce large hail and damaging winds. Evening storms will have less instability but slightly more shear at 35-40kts and be mainly a wind threat. Storms should end relatively early at around 06z. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Tonight through the overnight hours, weak ridging is still in place over the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to move through the area this afternoon and evening, mainly from around 23z through 05z and the CAMs and short range models are in pretty good agreement on this timing. These storms are expected to fire up east of the Front Range in eastern Colorado and progress through toward our area. There is still a decent amount of model uncertainty regarding the severity of these storms. Generally, the CAMs and short range models for both 06z and 12z runs this morning showed the storms at their strongest just west of us and in our westernmost areas before weakening as it moves across the area. Shear looks to be a little more limited/conditional today, despite favorable CAPE and moisture. The environment however is still favorable for severe storms, especially in westernmost areas, but they will be a bit more isolated in coverage than previous nights. The main threat will be damaging winds 60-75mph, but large hail will be possible as well. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to reflect this risk as well. These storms should be fairly progressive, so the flash flood concern is very minimal, and we are not outlooked by WPC for a flooding risk. MSW && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Looking at the long term forecast, weak ridging will persist through the area tomorrow (Wednesday) and generally be a bit stronger Wednesday. There will be an isolated chance of storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The chances of these storms occurring is low (PoPs around 10-20% or less), but if they occur, the best location to see these storms will be in the northeasternmost areas. These storms will have the potential for subsevere to severe gusty winds (50-60mph) primarily, but there will be a risk for large hail as well if they occur. Reflecting this risk, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for just our northeastern areas. Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving near the area, enhancing the chances for rain and severe storms again, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. There is still some model uncertainty regarding where the storms will begin to fire up and how strong they will be. But the globals are in decent agreement that around 18-21z, storms will begin to fire up east of the Front Range and progress through our area throughout the evening, especially as we get toward 00z through 06z. The best timing to see severe weather at least looking at the trends will be between 21z and 03z. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday, but would not be surprised if the Slight Risk off to our east gets expanded into our area in the next 1-2 days. Regardless, severe weather will be favorable for this system with all modes of severe weather possible at this time. Additionally, as these storms move through, they could slow down a little, which could cause some minor flash flooding issues due to the efficient rainfall. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall to reflect this potential. There is still quite a bit of model uncertainty, and things could change depending on how things progress over the next 1-2 days. We will keep monitoring for changes. Friday through the weekend forecast still has quite a bit of uncertainty since it depends on how these systems progress first over the next few days. But generally, there will be the chance for storms daily during the afternoon and evening hours with the potential for a few of these storms to be severe. We will keep monitoring for changes to determine further details on the severity and mode of these storms. MSW && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 509 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with a low probability of impacting either terminal. Slightly better chances this evening at KMCK where have included a PROB30 for this evening. Gusty surface winds will accompany any thunderstorm. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...024
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 091037 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 537 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-30% chance for showers and storms to move towards the area from the northwest overnight tonight. Confidence in severe potential is low. - Hot weather is expected through the end of the workweek. Highs Thursday should reach the middle and upper 90s. - Better chances for showers and storms is expected for Friday. - A break from the hot weather is forecast for Saturday with highs holding in the middle 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper ridge still over AZ while the mean westerlies remain well north across the Canadian plains. Surface obs showed broad high pressure centered over the upper Midwest with a general southerly to southeasterly low level wind field from the southern plains into the central high plains. The forecast is of low confidence due to the nature of the environment. Models continue to show a weakly forced synoptic pattern with a conditionally unstable airmass in place. So something like modest low level convergence or a convectively induced MCV could spark showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately these features are not well handled with the models. So have tried to put together the most likely scenario for the forecast. First off there is little or no confidence in the NAM solution which appears to continue to suffer from convective feedback in the model. Yesterday the NAM had a vort max coming out of the central high plains this morning impacting the forecast area. And much of the convection instead has been over the southern high plains. There is a small cluster of convection over south central SD that could provide a MCV for later convection. But the chances of it reaching the forecast area are a little to low to include in the forecast at this time. So started out today with a dry forecast. There has been a signal from the HRRR the past couple runs of storms developing this afternoon over the WY high plains and making a run at the forecast area overnight. The only other CAMs showing a similar idea is the two MPAS models. So have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs in the forecast to account for this. The only other change to the forecast this morning was to add some patchy fog to low lying areas. Calm winds and clear skies may allow from some radiational fog to develop. I wouldn't expect this to linger much past 8am. There are two frontal boundaries progged by the models that show a better signal for organized precipitation. The first boundary looks to move into the area early Friday, which is a slower trend from the blend than a couple days ago. As a result the POPs have been lowered for the daytime hours Thursday and shifted west for Thursday night. The Day2 outlook shows a slight risk for the northwest corner of the forecast area. Based on the timing of the boundary and models showing bulk shear remaining between 20 and 30KT, the risk may end staying west of the forecast area. The NAM appears to be showing it's moist bias in boundary layer moisture and developing high CAPE values, and so I take that prog with a grain of salt. But even then surface based inhibition is progged to be increasing during the overnight period. For Friday, have stayed with the blend forecast which has POPs ranging from 40 to 60 percent. This seems reasonable at this time frame. Depending on when storms develop and how much destabilization can occur, there main be some risk for severe storms through the afternoon and evening. The second frontal boundary is progged to influence the weather on Tuesday of next week and the NBM has chance POPs for this. Outside of these two synoptic forcing mechanisms any little mesoscale feature (or lack of one) could alter the forecast. So low end POPs are spread through the forecast. Temps are forecast to heat up today and Thursday as the thermal ridge builds into central KS. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 103 Thursday afternoon with some mixing of the dewpoint temps. The heat risk and WBGT are marginal for a heat advisory as well. But it may be worth considering if temps are forecast to get a little hotter. The bright spot in the forecast is on Saturday when surface high pressure pushes the boundary and likely precip chances south. It should also bring a temporary reprieve from the 90s with highs forecast to hold in the middle 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Not much change to the going forecast. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Continue to watch convection in northern NEB for signs a MCV develops that may spark storms this afternoon. Latest CAMs still struggle to generate anything, so will keep a dry forecast going. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 091001 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - MCS potential tonight mainly for areas along and east of highway - Increasing potential of widespread storms moving across western Kansas late Thursday night and early Friday morning - Cooler temperatures and more rain and storms for this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 07z upper air and surface analysis shows a 598 dm high centered over Arizona with an upper level shortwave rotating on the northeast side of the high moving through northwest Kansas which has led to some spotty rain showers and storms around Dighton that are continuing to diminish. Moisture profiles continue to show good amounts of moisture in the lower levels across much of southwest Kansas which will play a part in our temperature and thunderstorm forecast for today. Short term model forecasts for today show the 598 dm high continue to stay basically over Arizona with the stronger westerlies rotating along the north and northeast side from Wyoming into western Kansas. Dew point forecast have the better mixing out of moisture mainly along and west of highway 83 where the greatest probability of reaching 100 degrees this afternoon will be along the Colorado border. Later this afternoon with the left exit region of the jet leading to upper level divergence and a shortwave developing in central Nebraska we should see a complex of storms develop and dive basically straight south as the upper level steering will have winds out of the north-northwest. Given that the higher moisture will be in our eastern zones and 700 mb temperatures should be cooler (~10- 12 C) the cap should be weaker to allow ongoing MCS development and maintenance as the storms enter into northern Kansas. Severe weather threat with these storms will be mainly gusty winds of 60 mph or greater, brief heavy rain, and isolated large hail. Timeframe for these storms will be late afternoon to sunset around Hays and then in the evening to near midnight for areas from Dodge City to Medicine Lodge. Thursday the model trends have been shifting the strongest of the heat to the west and south as a stout trough will dampen the ridge and upper high in the desert southwest. So far many short term and global models still think decent mixing from southwest winds will occur and temperatures will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. However the NAM is trending to have less mixing and an area of enhanced moisture ahead of the shortwave coming out of Colorado Thursday night. Given that models haven't been handling the moisture profiles recently and due to the higher amount of moisture in the low levels this trend may start to show in other models. Thursday night as the shortwave comes out of COlorado another round of thunderstorms will develop in the front range and evolve into a squall line that will move into western Kansas after sunset. SPC has kept a slight risk of severe weather mainly along and north of the K-96 corridor and wind gusts greater than 60 mph will continue to be the threat. For the weekend models have the stronger longwave trough moving through the northern plains which should bring a stronger cold front for this time of year into Kansas during the day on Friday. The frontal boundary is showing signs of stalling out along the highway 50 corridor from Friday night into Saturday. With northwest flow bringing in upper level lift combining with good lower level moisture and the frontal boundary models have areas of higher QPF (> 1 inch) starting to appear in southwest Kansas with NBM probabilities of 10% chance of getting more than 1 inch. WPC has highlighted heavy rain potential in southwest Kansas for this weekend and isolated flash flooding potential can't be ruled out if these storms train along the front. The active weather pattern will probably continue into next week as LREF upper level trends have the upper high staying over the western CONUS and the stronger westerlies and shortwaves continuing to move through the central and northern plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 In general VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds should increase after 15Z and especially after 18Z to sustained around 15 kts and gusts around 25 kts. Models have a developing thunderstorm complex in southern Nebraska in the afternoon that will move into central Kansas and could affect HYS between 00-03Z. Storms could contain gusty downburst winds to 50 kts and heavy rain that could briefly drop the flight category. Storms will be near DDC between 03-06Z so VCTS wording will be included in the TAF. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro