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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 300756
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
156 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Single digit wind chills this morning with high temperatures
  15-20 degrees below normal today.

- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Monday for areas
  along and north of Highway 50 as accumulating snowfall is
  likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave trough
moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley with zonal flow aloft in
our area. An additional upper-level trough is digging into the
northwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved into the
Northern Plains. In our area, northerly winds persist with much
colder air surging south. Temperatures have dropped into the teens
and lower 20s which is 10-15 degrees below normal. As we move
towards sunrise, wind chills will continue to drop into the single
digits across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will follow
suit and be 15-20 degrees below normal. Highs will generally
struggle to reach above freezing with the upper 20s forecast for
central KS and low 30s in south-central to southeast KS.

Tonight, the aforementioned upper-level trough over the northwestern
CONUS will continue to dig and move southeast into the Central
Rockies by Monday morning. This trough will move across our area on
Monday, increasing snowfall chances. Snow is forecast to start
Monday morning in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, as lift
increases from the upper-trough coupled with the left exit region of
upper jet. Given the increased lift generally falls in the DGZ, this
can lead to efficient snowfall rates. Additionally, these features
combined with increased low-level WAA and 850 mb frontogenesis could
lead to a heavier band of snow developing in central KS. Therefore,
the heaviest snowfall is likely Monday morning. The HREF generally
has 60% probability of greater than 2 inches of snow in central KS
with NBM probabilities between 30-50%. As the upper low moves
southeast into the Mississippi Valley with the low-level trough,
snow chances will shift into eastern Kansas and Missouri. General
snowfall amounts outside the heavier band will likely be in the 0.5
to 1" range across central to south-central KS. Given surface winds
will be between 5-10 mph, blowing snow will be less of a concern,
but reduced visibility is likely in the heavier snow band. HREF
is showing probabilities between 60-75% of less than a mile
visibility due to snowfall rates. All of this to say, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of
Highway 50.

Tuesday and beyond... The next upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the northwestern CONUS on Tuesday then move into the
southwestern CONUS on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF forecast this
trough to shift towards the Central Rockies late Thursday night.
This system could bring the next round of precipitation to the area
Thursday night into Friday, though confidence is not high at this
time. Outside of precipitation, temperatures will remain below
normal throughout the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period, except at
CNU where MVFR ceilings continue to linger. There remains a 20%
chance that these lower ceilings may continue through the
overnight hours. Winds will start shifting northeasterly Sunday
morning into the afternoon, then shifting to easterly by Sunday
night.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...GC


Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 300806 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 106 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s today and 30s tomorrow. Lows are forecast to be in the single digits and teens. - Snow is forecast to move through the area tonight. Most of the area should see less than an inch of snow, but locales generally east of Highway 27 could see one to two inches. - Dense fog is possible tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1217 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 Another cold day is forecast for today as the high pressure system remains over the area for most of the day. Temperatures should be in the teens and 20s with highs maxing out in the mid to upper 20s. High level cloud cover is forecast to continue to move over the area as we remain downstream of the next upper trough, putting the area underneath mostly cloudy skies. Winds are forecast to be lower for the area today with eastern portions of the area forecast to have wind speeds around 10 mph. Counties along the Colorado border are forecast to see slightly stronger winds around 15-20 mph as a low pressure system develops along the Southern Front Range ahead of the next trough. This evening and through the overnight hours, the upper trough is forecast to begin pushing east into and through the area. As it does so, it is forecast to push some saturated air through the area while the surface low shift just southwest of the area. This combined setup should allow some snow showers to form and push through the area. With the system having a steady progression, the snow showers should form in Eastern Colorado and near the Tri-State border and push steadily east. However, as the surface low also pushes east, locales along and east of a line from Leoti, KS to Colby, KS to Trenton, NE are forecast to be on the wrap around side of the low. This combined with more saturated air is forecast to allow for greater snow residency and some slightly stronger snow showers. While not enough for any drastic differences, the western portion of the area is forecast to see around a trace to half an inch of snow whereas the aforementioned wrap around zone is forecast to see an inch or two of snow. With ensembles still showing some discrepancy with the progression of the trough, amounts could be half an inch to an inch higher if the trough does pull west and keep the wrap around zone further west. Even in this scenario, the probability of seeing more than 3 inches of snow is 15%, so snow amounts are not too concerning at this time. Thankfully, the trough is forecast to be tilted and broad which is keeping both the height gradients and the surface pressure gradient on the weaker side. This should keep winds in the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts to 25 mph, keeping the threat of blowing snow very low. The main concern from a hazard perspective is the possibility for dense fog in the aforementioned favored area. If moisture is wrapping around and concentrating there, it wouldn't be unreasonable for dense fog to form. Lows overnight are forecast to be in the teens again with the cold air mass till mostly over the area. Monday, the upper trough should finish swinging through the area and push the moisture to the east. This will allow any precipitation and dense fog to end during the morning hours, with the cloud cover clearing during the remainder of the day. As the trough does push the colder air east, some warmer air is forecast to advect in from behind it and allow the area to warm into the 30s as long as the sun does break through. Winds are forecast to be in the 10 to 20 mph range as the high pressure pushes east and lower pressure develops to the west. Monday night, clear skies are forecast for most of the night until some possible higher clouds push in with northwest flow aloft. Winds near the surface are forecast to be fairly light around 5 to 10 mph as we remain far between systems and the pressure gradient weakens. Lows are forecast to drop into the teens again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 A broad zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS this period with a nearly stationary upper low anchored over eastern Canada. A series of embedded shortwave troughs will bring some chances for light snow. The first system will organize in the Four Corners Wednesday then eject into the central plains Wednesday night and Thursday. ECMWF ensemble average slightly more bullish on snow amounts compared to the GFS and Canadian ensembles, showing 1-2" with highest amounts in Colorado, while the other ensembles showing less than 1" at this time. None of the models showing much in the way of wind. Another shortwave could follow for Friday night and Saturday, but models in rather poor agreement at the present time leading to low confidence in the details. However, it does look to be another progressive open wave which typically produce light snow amounts, if any at all. Temperatures will generally be near normal, with a slight cool down on Wednesday and Thursday with the system moving through. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1019 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with cloud cover generally above 7000ft. Winds are forecast to be light from roughly the northwest through the night, but may vary a bit in direction. Going into the late morning and early afternoon hours, winds should pick up a bit closer to 12 kts and switch to be more from the southeast. We are watching the potential for fog, snow, and low ceilings Sunday night, but that currently looks to start after 06Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 300450 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1050 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory continues through 6 PM this evening for portions of north central and east central Kansas. - Dry, but cold tonight into Sunday. Wind chills will be in the single digits by sunrise Sunday and only reach the 20s by Sunday afternoon. - A fast-moving round of snow will impact the area Sunday night through the day Monday. Generally expecting 1-3 inches of snow to accumulate across the area. - Below-normal temperatures continue through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 A mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front have pushed east of the area this afternoon, allowing for precipitation to end and much colder air to build in across northeast Kansas. Gusty northwest winds have taken control with sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and gusts of 35-45 MPH observed. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM this evening for areas along and southwest of a Washington to Manhattan to Garnett line. Winds remain breezy overnight with the main uncertain revolving around cloud cover. Some guidance keeps low clouds in place with while others have clearing skies. Clouds continue to stream in from the north, so think clouds will hold on through at least most of the overnight period, perhaps even into Sunday morning. It will be cold regardless of cloud cover with lows Sunday morning in the teens and wind chills in the single digits! Not much warming will take place through the day with highs only reaching into the 20s. A positively-tilted, fast-moving shortwave ejects across the Plains Sunday night through the day Monday. With cold air in place, confidence is high in all precipitation being snow with this wave. Given the progressive nature, precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side, generally between 0.15-0.25" of liquid. However, SLRs will be above climatology given the cold airmass in place, likely in the 13-16:1 range. Even with light QPF amounts, the SLR/QPF combination will produce a widespread 1-3 inches of snow across the area. There is still a spread of about 0.1" of QPF between the 25-75th percentiles of ensembles with the majority (75% of ENS, GEFS, and GEPS members) falling within the 0.1-0.3" QPF range. There is a long tail on the high end with about 15 percent of the members showing greater than 0.3" of QPF. There are also some differences latitudinally in the location of heaviest snow with a subtle northward shift noted in guidance. With all of that said, there is high confidence in measurable snow falling across the entire area, medium confidence in a swath of 1-3 inches within the forecast area, and low confidence in any amounts exceeding 3". Could still see a shift in the track of this system or an increase/decrease in expected QPF and snow amounts, but this looks to be a stoutly advisory- level snow event with minor to moderate impacts to travel from falling and accumulating snow. Snow comes to an end Monday evening, leaving dry conditions through at least mid-week. Low-level winds briefly become southerly on Tuesday before another cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of cold air for the middle of the week. Frontal passage is favored to be dry, but will keep temperatures below-normal with lows ranging from the single digits to the low 20s and highs in the 20s and 30s. There is a signal for slightly warmer temperatures and low chances for precipitation by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Ceilings have settled right around the VFR/MVFR border, and should stay around this level overnight while gradually scattering out by sunrise. Northwest winds are still a bit gusty (20- 30 kts at times) towards KTOP and KFOE, and this should remain the case until close to sunrise. Winds stay around 10 kts during the day, before becoming lighter and more northeasterly tomorrow evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 300447 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1047 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens - Cold air continues through Sunday - A quick moving system will bring light accumulations to parts of southwest and north central Kansas on Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 19Z upper air analysis shows a rapidly exiting shortwave which is moving towards the Great Lakes with strong cold air advection on the western side of the system. 850 mb temps have fallen to -7 to -8 (C) in western Kansas and is as cold as -13 (C) in western Nebraska. At the surface the 1011 mb low is centered in western Missouri with a 1027 mb high in eastern Montana which is leading to the strong pressure gradient and northwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. Tonight winds should diminish through the evening and overnight hours as the surface high slides into northern Kansas by sunrise. A developing mid level shortwave will introduce some high and mid level clouds through the night. Despite the little cloud cover the lighter winds combined with the core of colder air hanging through western Kansas should allow lows to fall into the lower to mid teens. Sunday with northeast winds for most of the day (switching to the southeast near the Colorado border by late in the day), zonal flow aloft bringing in mid to high level cloud cover, and not much suggestion of diurnal heating to moderate the polar air mass...temperatures will struggle to rise through the day. I went with the colder NBM solution for MaxT and hourly Ts which would put highs generally in the upper 20s across much of southwest Kansas. By late Sunday afternoon a developing storm system in the intermountain west will bring a negative tilt trough into the central plains by mid Monday morning. Monday short and medium term models continue to show a band of light snow developing with a 700 mb fgen axis roughly from Elkhart to Hays with the strongest lift in the dendritic growth zone closer to Hays between 12-18Z. Models are still showing some timing disagreements with the NAM being the slower of the models which would lag the timeframe of snow more into the afternoon. Given the open and progressive nature of the shortwave and hints of the trough going less negative as it moves into Kansas I stuck with the faster solution for POPs which puts the highest prob (30-40%) from Dodge City to Hays. The most likely scenario is a band of snow developing along the intensifying fgen band in these areas with the better potential of accumulating snow as you move into north central Kansas as the lift improves. Accumulations could reach around 1 inch near Hays to Larned (around 50% Probability) with the rest of the area showing greater odds of under 1 inch of snow (75-100% probability). Winds aren't expected to intensify so winter weather impacts look to stay minor at this point for the I-70 corridor and areas around Ness City to Larned. After Monday LREF upper air patterns keep us generally in northwest to zonal flow for the rest of the week with no great opportunities for precipitation on the horizon. Temperatures should also stay fairly seasonal as the polar air is trending to stay off to the northeast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds are expected to lighten and shift significantly from the north to from the southeast with a weak surface high pressure. Skies will be primarily scattered with more cloud coverage arriving by the end of the TAF period. Ceilings are forecast to stay high enough that VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...KBJ