ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 032340
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy very light snow flurries and/or sprinkles possible
through Thursday. Absolutely no accumulation or adverse
impacts expected.
- Chilly tonight through Thursday, with single digit wind chills
early Thursday.
- Moderating temperatures Friday through Saturday, with another
substantial cool down Saturday night through Sunday night.
- Possible light precipitation late Saturday through Sunday.
- Above average temperatures probable Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
PRECIPITATION:
A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak-
modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper
trough could support patchy very light snow flurries and/or
sprinkles through Thursday. For tonight, thinking they will be
primarily the first half of the night, and focusing mainly over
southern Kansas Thursday. Weak to modest lift and very limited
moisture will prevent any accumulation or adverse impacts.
For late Saturday through Sunday...Could see some light
precipitation late Saturday through Sunday, as a shortwave moves
southeast through the region along with an associated cold front.
The GFS continues to be a tad more bullish with PoPs compared to the
ECMWF and CMC, although the latter models are showing a bit more
precipitation than yesterday. If trends continue, wouldn't be
surprised if some PoPs are eventually introduced into the forecast,
including some light wintry precipitation. Either way, a major storm
system looks unlikely, with any potential impacts likely more of a
nuisance. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.
TEMPERATURES:
Arctic high pressure will continue to plunge south into Mid-America
tonight and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average
temperatures and breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday
morning will likely be the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with
single digit and low teens wind chills likely, and Thursday highs in
the 30s.
Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before
another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday,
but probably not quite as chilly as tonight through Thursday.
Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a
return to above average temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, as a
stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds east out of
the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the 50s and
overnight lows in the 30s look probable.
Beyond that into late next week and next weekend, model solutions
greatly diverge, with a large range in temperatures. Per NBM
percentiles, the upper range is in the upper 50s for daytime
highs, while the lower range is in the low-mid 30s. The battle
is likely between solutions attempting to build the upper level
high pressure further east over Mid-America (warmer), and
solutions attempting to dig central-eastern CONUS upper
troughing (colder). Consequently, forecast uncertainty is high
surrounding temperatures, although mostly dry weather looks
probable.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
MVFR ceilings persist across the area this evening. Skies will
begin to lift from north to south between 04-06Z. Breezy
northeasterly winds will continue for the next several hours
across the region with gusts between 20-25 knots. A frontal
boundary will move from west to east across the area on Thursday
morning turning winds from northeast to southerly between
14-18Z.
A few snow flurries are possible across central Kansas sites
tonight and for southern Kansas sites late morning/early
afternoon on Thursday. This activity will not lead to any
accumulation or operational impacts.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 040049
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow through mid evening. Most of the snow accumulation
is expected over Eastern Colorado.
- Fog may form in East Central CO tonight.
- Wind chills Thursday morning are forecast to be in the single
digits to low teens.
- Very low chances for snow Saturday in Yuma County, but
otherwise dry through Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Latest model data shows lift and weak frontogenesis are
occurring where the light snow is persisting longer than
thought. The data indicates the snow should end toward midnight
as the lift and frontogenesis end. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Well the low end snow forecast scenario seems to be the one that
panned out for this system, with majority of the system staying
west. As the system continues east, we could see the occasional
flurries through sunset, but for the most part the area will likely
remain snow free this afternoon. A surface high over Eastern
Colorado will push south this evening and into the overnight hours,
helping to gradually clear skies Thursday morning. The low level
moisture will stick around through mid-day Thursday as the upper
level trough axis swings across the Central Plains. With the
lingering moisture and light winds out of the south, freezing fog
may be possible tonight. It's also possible that temperatures are
too cold with overnight lows in the teens across the Tri-State area.
Wind chills will fall after midnight to shortly after sunrise into
the low teens and single digits.
As the upper trough continues to swing across the Central Plains
Thursday, dry conditions are expected with clear to mostly clear
skies starting after midday. Temperatures should be a bit warmer as
well with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Overnight lows tomorrow
night will be in the teens to low 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Northwest upper level flow will dominate the weather pattern for
this portion of the forecast. Models agree rather well with the
weather pattern through Wednesday. Temperatures will be near to
almost ten degrees above normal.
Models have an upper level short wave trough moving through the High
Plains Saturday. There may be some low chances for snow in Yuma
County that day. However, despite the minor upper level short wave
trough moving through, am doubtful this will become reality due to
the majority of the snow chances being well north of the forecast
area. In addition soundings show a rather large dew point
depression below the cloud base of roughly 15k ft AGL.
Aside from this short wave trough passage, there will be frequent
minor upper level trough passages through the northwest flow over
the Plains; the more notable ones will be on Monday and Wednesday.
Soundings show rather large dew point depressions present on these
days when the short wave troughs move through. Unless this changes,
do not expect there to be much more than clouds accompanying the
troughs through the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Latest radar
reflectivity shows the snow ending from north to south over the
western part of the forecast area. Models do not have a good
handle on the current ceilings, which greatly lowers confidence
in how they will handle the ceilings for the next few hours.
After roughly 3z models agree well with each other regarding the
ceilings. Overall the ceilings will be lowest toward 6z, then
improve after that. The lowest visibility should be the first
hour or so of the TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 032312
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
512 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light precipitation possible across east-central Kansas through
this evening.
- Cold on Thursday with morning wind chills in the single digits and
highs in the 20s.
- Chances (10-25%) for rain/snow return Saturday night into
Sunday, although only light amounts are currently expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Mid-level, quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this
afternoon with a positively-tilted shortwave over the Desert
Southwest. The surface cold front has made its way through the
entire area with breezy northwest winds ushering in a colder
airmass. Low-cloud coverage has increased behind the boundary and
modest ascent in a deeper cloud deck across east-central Kansas
could generate some light precipitation this afternoon and evening.
Initially, rain or drizzle is favored, but a cooling column could
support a mix of snow later this evening before drier air works into
the area. Cloud coverage will decrease from north to south through
the evening, although there is uncertainty in how fast this occurs.
Currently seeing clearing of low clouds closer to the Nebraska
border, but high clouds are increasing from the southwest. It seems
more likely than not to have at least a several hour period of
clearing where good radiational cooling will drop temperatures in
the teens and single digits. However, if clouds hang on longer, lows
could be warmer than forecast and hold in the 20s. The record low
temperature at Topeka could be in jeopardy; refer to the Climate
Section below for details.
Surface high pressure controls the region tomorrow, leading to a
chilly day with highs only reaching into the 20s. Surface winds
become more southerly by Friday, aiding in bumping highs into the
upper 30s to mid 40s, still below climatological norms. Northwest
flow aloft persists into early next week with waves of energy
passing through the mean flow. Guidance continues to highlight the
Saturday night-Sunday wave as the most likely to produce some
precipitation across the area. Ensembles are coming into better
agreement with this wave and 30-50% of LREF members have measurable
precipitation across the forecast area during this timeframe. NBM is
slowly catching on, but its PoPs remain lower than the ensembles
suggest. PoPs may increase with subsequent runs if this signal
remains consistent. Thermodynamic profiles support a mix of rain and
snow depending on timing and location of the wave, but precipitation
amounts are favored to be minor at this time. Temperatures fall
again on Sunday behind this system before moderating into the middle
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
MVFR CIGs have continued to push south of the terminals over the
past few hours so TAFs should remain VFR through the period at
all sites with NNE winds falling below 10 knots this evening.
Surface ridging builds in for the day Thursday with calm winds.
Light southerly flow returns by late in the TAF period, but
should remain below 10 knots so kept mention out at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Updated at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...
Current Record Forecast
Topeka 8, set in 1902 11
Concordia -2, set in 1886 10
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 032342
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
next 7-10 days, through at least December 12th.
- Cloudy windy and much colder Wednesday.
- Light snow near the Colorado border and the southwest counties
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Minor accumulations up to
one inch possible.
- Continued cold Thursday, with temperatures moderating back to
normal Friday.
- Another dry cold front over the upcoming weekend with no
impacts.
- Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday and next Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Midday surface observations indicated northeast winds across all
of SW KS, with cold advection in progress. Between continued
cold advection and thickening/expanding stratus, temperatures
will either remain steady or slowly fall through the 30s or near
40 through this afternoon.
Shortwave centered near the Four Corners at midday, will
continue to shear out and weaken as it enters New Mexico
tonight. Forcing for ascent ahead of this system will keep thick
clouds in place much of the night. KDDC radar shows the
atmosphere saturating along the KS/CO border, with increasing
virga, and light snow reported already at Lamar. Areas of light
snow are expected across the western counties (mainly west of
US 83 and adjacent to Colorado) through tonight, on the
northeast periphery of the New Mexico shortwave's ascent. Snow
grids continue to carry amounts near 1/2 inch across these
zones, but models disagree how much light snow will make its way
into Kansas tonight. Some models such as 12z NAM/ARW predict
1-2 inches across Stanton/Morton counties, while global models,
their ensembles, and NBM-based probability are all much drier.
Believe current forecast is a reasonable middle ground approach
with light <1 inch accumulations with minimal impacts. High
confidence higher winter travel impacts will remain relegated to
Colorado and New Mexico through tonight. Scattered flurries
are possible anywhere tonight, before clouds start clearing out
by sunrise. Strong surface ridging >1030 mb is expected to
build into SW KS through Thursday morning, allowing winds to
decrease to light and variable. Given how cold the incoming air
mass is, most locations will fall easily into the teens tonight,
although lingering cloud cover is expected to interfere with
the efficiency of radiational cooling.
Shortwave weakens considerably Thursday, as it enters confluent
flow over the central plains. Decreasing clouds are expected
through Thursday as subsidence gradually takes over. Despite the
return of sunshine and a return flow south breeze, we will be
recirculating continental polar air Thursday, for another
uncomfortably cold afternoon in the 30s for most locales.
Temperatures are expected to moderate back to early December
normals Friday, within a few degrees of 50 at 3 pm.
This weekend through early next week, a very quiet forecast
remains in place with no impacts expected. A series of dry cold
fronts will continue, with assorted wind shifts and minor
temperature fluctuations, but no significant air mass exchanges
are expected. Saturday through Monday, both sunrise and
afternoon temperatures will average near early December normals.
A warming trend remains evident Tuesday and Wednesday, with
NBM afternoon temperature guidance climbing into the 60s.
Next week will feature a strong phase of the PNA synoptic
pattern across North America, with a strong ridge west and a
strong trough over the Great Lakes. Strong NWly midlevel flow
will be maintained over SW KS for many days, which is a very
dry pattern for SW KS during the cold season. Indeed, NBM is
completely dry through Wednesday December 10th, and ECMWF is dry
through its 10-day run through December 12th. CPC outlooks
continue with high probability of above normal temperatures and
below normal precipitation into mid December.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
A light snow event will continue to skirt far southwest Kansas
early this TAF period, and we will have light snow in a TEMPO
group early in the period at GCK and LBL, but impacts are
expected to be minimal. The prevailing flight category will
likely remain MVFR through much of the evening into the late
night, but ceilings will begin to gradually increase back up
above 3000 feet as the core of the storm system shifts south
into West Texas. The northeast wind will decrease in magnitude
and become light and variable later this evening. Light and
variable wind will then gradually become a south-southwest wind
late in the period (Friday midday/afternoon) with widespread VFR
flight category likely by sunrise or shortly thereafter.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
