ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 062345
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
545 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible areawide late tonight into early Saturday
morning
- Mild stretch continues through much of next week
- Rain chances (20-30%) return for the mid to latter half of
next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
As of 130 PM Friday afternoon, quiet weather conditions were
ongoing across the Plains with mostly sunny skies and mild
temperatures in the 50s. A shortwave trough continues to advance
through the OH valley with an attendant surface trough
extending through the Red River Valley. In the wake of this
front, northerly winds have overspread the region with gusts up
to 25 mph. Transitioning into tonight, mostly clear skies are
likely to continue with an area of surface high pressure
translating through the forecast area. Small dew point
depression and light winds should allow for the development of
patchy fog across much of the area. As the surface high pressure
progresses southeastward into Saturday morning, southerly
surface winds will increase from west to east and should
dissipate any fog formation from west to east as well.
Shortwave midlevel ridging will slide across the region Saturday and
will promote another mild day with highs in the 50s to near 60. A
shortwave trough will slide through the region late Saturday into
Saturday night, shunting a weak cold front through the area. Despite
the cold frontal passage, westerly winds by Sunday will foster
downslope low-level flow and a warming trend. Sunday afternoon
temperatures are likely to approach the mid 60s. Continued low-level
WAA into Monday will support even warmer temperatures in the 70s.
A more active pattern will begin to emerge by the middle of next
week as zonal midlevel flow becomes established. This midlevel flow
transition is likely to allow for multiple shortwave trough passages
within the central or southern Plains. As a result, precipitation
chances have been introduced (20-30%) for much of the mid to latter
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period
with some patchy fog possible Saturday morning.
Currently, light northerly winds continue across the area.
Winds should continue weakening tonight, then shift to southerly
by Saturday morning. Localized areas of patchy fog are possible
Saturday morning, but kept vis at or above 6SM for now until
confidence increases in the potential for vis reductions. By 15Z
Saturday, VFR conditions will prevail with southerly to
southwesterly winds at around 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 062214
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
314 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing fog is possible Saturday morning along and east of KS
25. Localized reductions of visibility down to around 1/2 mile
are possible.
- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Yuma county for
Saturday. Elevated to locally critical fire conditions are
possible for adjacent counties as well.
- Above average highs expected into early next week.
- A series of weak shortwaves move through the region next week
and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and
accumulations at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026
A surface high is located across the eastern portions of the
area keeping winds light and variable. The main focus through
the evening and overnight is on a backdoor cold front where some
moisture does look to dam up against the leading edge of the
front. There are some signals for some shallow fog development.
Patchy dense fog may be possible but at this time not overly
concerned for widespread dense fog due to how shallow the
saturated layer is. Interesting enough the 12z HREF does show a
30% chance of visibilities falling below 1/2 mile roughly along
and east of Highway 25. A few things are playing against the
fog formation with the main one being a quicker switch to
southerly winds which is not climatologically favorable for fog.
Temperatures are forecast to be flirting with freezing so any
fog would lead to concerns for freezing fog leading to localized
slick spots on elevated surfaces. Roads could become a concern
but with the mild temperatures the past few days road and soil
temperatures should be warm enough to prevent ice accretion
unless fog persists for a prolonged period of time. Stratus
seems to be the most likely outcome at this time due to the
southerly turn of the winds.
Saturday, essentially a southeast moving warm front moves into the
area along a belt of warmer 850mb temperatures around 15C. This will
lead to another day of warm temperatures with highs in the 60s
to 70s for most. The exception is across our eastern counties
where there is some concern that thick stratus could linger
through the day leading to cooler temperatures. Have nudged
down highs into the upper 50s mainly for southern Graham and
Gove counties due to this concern. The NAM is currently the
outlier on temperatures as it keeps a really think stratus deck
all day with only a high of 40 degrees. Do not quite want to be
that aggressive at this time but the NAM typically does do a
good job of being the first to pick up on these signals in the
past so if confidence does in crease in that potential then
highs for those two counties could be around 10-15 degrees to
warm on this forecast package.
On the for sure warm side of the CWA high temperatures are
forecast to warm to the upper 60s and low 70s. Do have some
concerns that highs may end up being a little warmer due to the
compression warming along the front. Have also brought dew
points down a few degrees as mixing heights are forecast to top
out around 5500 feet AGL. RAP, NAM and GFS soundings all show
lower dew points aloft which should be easily mixed down. Cross
sections do show some cloud cover around 500mb but should be
high enough that it should not impact mixing. An increasing
850mb jet around 30-35 knots is forecast to lead to sustained
winds of 15-25 mph across northwest portions of the area with
gusts up to 35 mph. The GFS, does have bit of stronger jet would
support wind gusts up to 45 mph but confidence in gusts that
strong is only around 10-20%. With all of this in mind have
opted to issue a Red Flag Warning for Yuma county Colorado from
11am through 5pm Saturday due to 80% confidence in at least 3
hours of critical fire weather conditions being met. If the GFS
is correct and the 850mb jet is stronger there is potential it
may need to be expanded into adjacent counties as well.
Confidence in that is only 10-20% at this time. Further east
winds are forecast to be more southwesterly ahead of the front
around 10-15 mph and more variable just ahead of the front. Wind
gust potential is forecast to end around 430-5pm MT with winds
reaming still around 10-15 mph through the evening.
Sunday at this time appears to be more tranquil as the area is
forecast to be void of any pressure gradients increasing winds.
Synoptically northwest flow is forecast to continue along with
our mild temperatures with highs forecast to be in the upper
60s across the entire forecast area. Humidity values are
forecast to be low in the mid to upper teens but with the lack
of wind, fire weather concerns are currently not anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026
Friday, our region is in a predominately
northwest flow pattern with a ridge over the Intermountain West and
a low developing off the coast of Baja California. Temperatures will
remain unseasonably warm with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper
20s to low 30s. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable for most
of Friday, but will briefly pick up Friday afternoon. A weak
shortwave moving through the area will cause gusts from 15-20 mph
for the northwest portion of the county warning area (CWA). Relative
humidity (RH) values are forecast in the upper teens for our
Colorado counties, but with overall weaker wind gusts and Grassland
Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values below 15 for our Colorado counties,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.
Saturday and Sunday are fairly similar as a ridge continues to be in
place over the Intermountain West placing us in a mostly zonal flow.
High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the upper 20s
to low 30s. Winds pick up briefly in the afternoon mainly for our
Colorado counties. Saturday will be the windiest day out of the
weekend with gusts from 25-30 mph forecast. Winds will quickly
diminish after sunset. RH values are forecast in the upper teens and
GFDI values are forecast around 30 for western Kit Carson and Yuma
counties. This combination could result in a brief window of
elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions Saturday
afternoon.
The ridge finally begins to propagate through our CWA Monday.
Temperatures will still be above average with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 30s, but this ridge moving through sets the stage for a
potential pattern change next week. We will monitor this synoptic
setup for precipitation potential as the week continues.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026
VFR conditions remain forecast for this evening for each
terminal. Winds continue to shift to the east and are forecast
to become more southeasterly as the evening and night goes on.
Confidence remains highest in stratus potential overnight for
MCK with GLD remaining more the western periphery of the deck at
this time. LLWS still remains a concern as well with highest
confidence at MCK as GLD is forecast to remain a bit more mixed
with sustained winds around 15 knots. A front is forecast to
move into the GLD terminal early afternoon Saturday leading to
some wind gust potential up to
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026
Confidence has increased in multiple hours of critical fire
weather conditions occurring across Yuma county for Saturday. A
warm front is forecast to move through the area from the
northwest as high temperatures are forecast to rise into the
upper 60s to low 70s. Mixing is forecast to increase to around
5000 feet AGL during the early afternoon hours which may mix
down some drier air aloft which may lead to lower RH values than
forecasted. Confidence is high in wind gusts of 30-35 mph, some
guidance does have the 850mb wind field which is causing the
winds to be a little stronger which would then result in wind
gusts up to 45 mph. Confidence in that is only 10-20% at this
time however. Even if mixing is not as strong as anticipated
surface RH forecasts are still around 16%. With D1 drought
creeping back into the county this should still lead to the
same fire behavior even if humidity values were to fall a
little more. Elevated to locally critical conditions are
forecast to occur in adjacent counties (Dundy, Kit Carson,
Cheyenne (KS), Sherman). Will need to continue to keep an eye on
the potential mixing potential and if the 10-20% chance that
winds are stronger then the Red Flag Warning may need to be
expanded some.
Sunday and Monday, humidity will be low in the low to upper
teens but the overall wind fields are not impressive at all.
Sustained winds are forecast to be around 10 mph. Due to
diurnal mixing we could see some gusts up to 20 mph across most
of the forecast area but should be sporadic and isolated in
nature. Due to this the concern for elevated conditions has
declined.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ252.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 062302
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
502 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Above average daytime temperatures dominate the forecast this
weekend and next week.
-Near record high temperatures are expected on Monday.
-Confidence in precipitation chances remain low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Breezy north winds are keeping conditions a little cooler than
yesterday, but still above climatological normals for early
February. The north wind will relax this evening as surface high
pressure continues to move southward into the area. Winds will shift
to the southeast tonight as high pressure moves eastward, then will
increase out of the south for the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow
will likely be comparable to today before much warmer conditions
take shape late this weekend and early next week.
A mid-level shortwave trough axis moves over the region on Sunday
without much impact to our weather. Highs should reach the low 60s.
Surface low pressure then deepens north and west of the area on
Monday, allowing for southwesterly flow and warm air advection. NBM
model spread in temperatures on Monday is very low, lending high
confidence to forecast highs around 70 degrees, which is just a
degree or two below record highs for the day (see the climate
section below).
A cold front associated with the low pressure west of here looks to
move through Tuesday morning. Better chances for precipitation with
that system still appear to be south of here, but have continued
slight chance POPs for now. From there, long range models begin to
diverge on solutions into the later part of next week. The NBM keeps
low POPs around late in the week since some models show that
possibility. However, confidence is not high on precipitation
chances at any one time next week. If precip manages to develop,
temperatures look warm enough to mainly support rain instead of snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 501 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
North winds decrease over the next couple hours, becoming
very light and generally southeasterly by sunrise. By late morning
winds will pick back up, from the south at around 10 kts. Best
chance of any fog looks to stay west of KMHK, leaving VFR
conditions in place.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
February 9, 2026
Record High Forecast High
Topeka 72 (1932) 70
Concordia 70 (1996) 68
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Teefey
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 070000
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued dry and mild for several days
- No major weather impacts
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
A quiet weather pattern is expected for tonight. There is a chance
of stratus clouds by morning. Otherwise, a shallow colder airmass
will prevail across the eastern zones Saturday. This is in opposition
to a downslope warmed airmass across the western zones. As a result,
there should be a large high temperature gradient from central Kansas
to extreme southwest Kansas tomorrow. It is believed that the NAM
solution is an outlier as it is very cold in the east. Anyway, highs
ranging from the 50s northeast to the 70s southwest are expected.
Fire danger looks to be mitigated through moderate afternoon relative
humidity and weaker winds. As for lows both tonight and into Sunday
morning, looks like minimums will be on the mild side and likely
above freezing.
For Sunday and Monday, we will see UL shortwave ridging. The net result
is a dry and warm forecast continuing during this period. The downsloping
becomes more pronounced Monday, and highs should be well above normal
as a result - widespread 70s. Will have to watch afternoon relative
humidity levels across far southwest Kansas. Here, RH's in the 10-15%
range cannot be ruled out. The fire danger through might be somewhat
mitigated with weaker winds in closer proximity to a sfc trof.
An upper level trof will skirt south of the FA Tuesday and Wednesday.
Both the GEFS and ENS are trending south with this synoptic system.
Both pops have been lowered and weather has been removed as this
southern trend solution continues. We will see cooler highs, but
even these readings are likely to be still above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Light, upslope east winds will gradually become southeasterly
and then southerly overnight. There is a small chance (10-20%)
of LIFR CIGS and fog at KHYS between 10-13z; but it will likely
not be moist enough. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to
persist. Expect winds to subside by late afternoon as the
surface trough crosses the TAF sites.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch
