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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 021805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1205 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quiet and dry weather pattern will persist for several days
  across central and southern Kansas.

- Cold wind chills will affect the entire region for late
  Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as another polar
  airmass sinks southward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

South winds return and sunny skies will help warm temperatures up
today as surface high pressure pushes east of Kansas. Models
are in good agreement with another surge of polar air sinking
southward from the northern plains and spreading into Kansas on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. This surge of colder air will also be
accompanied by increasing north winds during the day on
Wednesday. The combination of polar air and north winds will
drop wind chill readings to near zero degrees over central
Kansas for Thursday morning, with all other areas dropping in
the single digits.

A dry and quiet weather pattern looks to persist for several days as
a upper level northwest flow regime becomes well established thus
keeping moisture shoved well south of Kansas. Temperatures will
gradually warm for Friday and Saturday followed by another push of
colder air on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A cold front will move south across the region late tonight
through Wednesday, with gusty north-northeast winds in its wake,
along with MVFR ceilings. Additionally, could see some patchy
light snow flurries later tonight into early Wednesday for the
GBD-RSL-SLN TAF sites. Thinking any snow will remain very light
due to high cloud bases and weak lift, and absolutely no
accumulation is expected. Consequently, did not included mention
in the 18z routine TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 021729 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow is forecast to develop over portions of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday afternoon. Most of the area will not even see an inch of snow from this system. - Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may lead to minor travel impacts. - Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 113 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 Over the past few hours, temperatures dropped into the teens before a low-level ridge moved across the area. This has lead to west-southwesterly winds gradually warming the CWA up a few degrees from downsloping flow and weak WAA. The WAA is expected to continue into the day. Combined with some more sun shining through, temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 40s across the area. There is some wiggle room for the highs depending on clouds. More sky coverage and some places will not climb out of the low 40s, but if more sun shines through, 50s will be seen across parts of the area. Winds will become light and variable in the afternoon as a very weak trough moves over the area. Overnight tonight gets a bit more interesting. The aforementioned trough will allow an 850 mb low to form early in the night, southwest of the area. This will pull in cooler, saturated air from the north. There still looks to be a dry layer around 50-100 mb thick at the surface. A heavy cloud deck will move in overnight, and starting around 0-3Z over the western CWA, 500 mb vorticity associated with a 250 mb trough axis, will move over the CWA. This will provide forcing and moisture to lead to some flurries and light snow. This potential for light precipitation will expand eastward, covering most of the CWA by 9Z. There is a lot of disagreement from the models regarding the potential for this precipitation, largely revolving around if the forcing will occur and if the dry layer will lead to only virga. Current confidence in light snow leading to trace to no accumulation before 12Z Wednesday across most of the CWA is about 30-40%. By 12-15Z Wednesday morning, model disagreement dissolves over the western CWA as the main trough starts to sweep through the area. Snow is expected to continue along and west of KS 27 between 12 and 21Z Wednesday. This main wave of snow will move in from the northwest and generally progress to the south throughout the day. Snow may occur farther east until the afternoon. The western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60% chance of seeing an inch of snow. There is only a ~40% chance of localized accumulations of an inch east of the Colorado border, and potential rapidly declines farther east. In the midday Wednesday, mainly 15-21Z, winds gusts are forecast to be in the 20-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest. Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than 1 mile is about 20-30%. Nuisance (>5 mile visibility) blowing snow has a 30-50% chance of occurring in pockets across the CWA as snow falls. Temperatures from the NBM show highs warming to just above freezing for most of the CWA. With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected to stay below freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout the day, it seems unlikely temperatures will be this warm. Most likely, temperatures west of about KS 27 will warm to just below or right at freezing, and locations to the east will see the above freezing temperatures. Wednesday night, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend from the Northern Rockies. This will slowly clear the skies over the CWA and help temperatures cool into the teens by Thursday morning. The northeastern CWA is expected to clear first and have efficient CAA from the high's flow. This is leading to a 50% chance of temperatures dropping into the single digits along and northeast of McCook, NE to Hill City, KS. Wind chills Thursday morning look to be in the single digits down to 0 in the cold, northeastern portion. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 100 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 The central plains will be under northwest flow this period, downstream from a ridge axis off the western CONUS. Occasional shortwaves coming over the ridge will bring only slight precipitation chances, with measurable amounts of rain and/or snow looking unlikely at this time. None of these systems are strong enough to warrant any wind concerns and relative humidity minimums are well above any fire weather concerns. So what amounts to basically a temperature forecast will start off around 10 degrees below normal on Thursday, a bit cooler in any snow covered areas of Colorado, followed by near normal temperatures on Friday, around 5 degrees above normal on Saturday, near normal on Sunday behind a weak cold front, and 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Normal highs are in the upper 40s and normal lows are around 20. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1020 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through 03z with increasing potential for reduced flight categories at both terminals as 12Z approaches. Strong cold front will sweep through the area overnight with somewhat moist upslope flow developing behind it. Potential for IFR stratus and fog to develop around 12z is highest at KGLD and think IFR conditions will prevail for several hours at KGLD. After initial surge in cloud cover behind front, differential cold air advection will likely destabilize things enough for scattered light snow showers to develop after 15z. While these will be short lived and likely not amount to much, if any, accumulation they may bring intermittent periods of IFR/MVFR conditions. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...JRM
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 021748 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Afternoon temps warm to above freezing today and tomorrow, before another round of very cold air moves in. -POPs remain less than 10 percent through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Early this morning, snow pack and clear skies are causing temperatures to be very chilly in the teens and single digits. Scattered areas of freezing fog have also been observed, mainly at TOP. Some areas of freezing fog will remain possible until mid-morning, especially where deeper snow pack exists. For the rest of the day, high pressure currently over the area will slide east, allowing south winds to return to the region. A seasonally strong WAA set up will be slightly stunted by fresh snow on the ground, but still should be enough to help temperatures exceed the freezing mark for a majority of the area. Above freezing temps and sunshine should help continue to improve road conditions today. However, icy spots could again develop following melting with temps in the 20s tonight. A cold front then moves through northeast KS early Wednesday. A few flurries/sprinkles could occur as the column saturates with little pockets of lift near the boundary. North winds will increase behind the front, which will usher in another round of very cold Canadian-based air Wednesday night and Thursday. The current forecast of 8 degrees in Topeka Thursday morning would tie the record set in 1902! Highs then during the afternoon will only reach the mid and upper 20s with a large sfc ridge remaining in place behind Wednesday's front. Beyond Thursday, the mid-level pattern will consist of northwest flow over the area. Long range models show periodic perturbations within the flow, which for now do not look too impactful for the area. One on Sunday could allow for snow just to the north, so will have to monitor trends as that timeframe approaches. Otherwise, temperatures should be a bit more mild with highs near 40 degrees around Topeka on Friday and Saturday, then cooler again by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of this forecast. Modest south to southwest winds should be the rule until a cold front arrive late, with timing looking to bring in into MHK around 16Z and ushering in MVFR stratus. Very light precipitation can't be ruled out late in the forecast as well. A modest low-level jet forms overnight but speeds look too low to include. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Poage
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 021605 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1005 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the next 7-10 days, through at least December 11th. - Temperatures return to early December normals Tuesday afternoon. - Windy and much colder, with low clouds behind a strong cold front Wednesday. - Scattered snow flurries Wednesday night, especially west of Dodge City. Minor snow accumulations possible near the Colorado border, with little impact expected. - A series of dry cold front passages will continue this weekend and early next week, with temperature and wind flucuations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 As the storm system from yesterday has exited, along with the associated positively tilted trough, a long stretch of quiet weather is expected across SW Kansas. Tuesday will see weak ridging providing mostly clear skies, lighter winds (<15 mph), and warmer temperatures (up into the 50s). While the area is enjoying pleasant December weather Tuesday, ensembles have another positively tilted trough developing and digging across the Pacific northwest. Ensembles have the trough weakening out, but not before returning snow chances back into Kansas, this time along the farthest western counties. Areas along the KS/CO border have a 30% chance to see at least 0.1" inches of snow Wednesday. The best chances are around the timeframe of around 10 AM to 10 PM CST. Models only have precipitable water values of 0.5". Additionally, the HRRR and some ensemble members have the leading edge falling as rain. After a warm Tuesday, Wednesday temperatures are not expected to be cold enough for freezing rain to occur. However the biggest risk with this marginal event would be if rain or melting snow falls first with snow falling on top. This could result in spot of ice hidden by snow that may make people slip and cars slide. Otherwise, snow accumulations are expected to be relatively minimal due to the positioning of the system and the lack of moisture. Ensemble means struggle to reach 0.5" and not even the 75th percentile gets to an inch. Unless there is a forecast change, only far western Kansas will see snowflakes and only areas near the KS/CO border will see meaningful accumulations. The system brings colder winds with it with highs only in the upper 30s. This is expected to be the coolest highs all week. After Wednesday, ensembles have the synoptic flow returning to a primarily zonal regime. No significant (>5%) precipitation chances for the rest of the week and beyond. Temperatures will be mild and seasonal that SW Kansas can typical expect in December. Relative humidities will be high enough and after Wednesday winds will be fairly light. This will keep fire weather risks at a minimum. As a result it is expected that the 3-7 day, and potentially beyond, will be quiet and without a headline. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1005 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR is expected to continue through 12z Wed. Increasing south winds after 18z Tue, with gusts 20-25 kts. Winds will trend light and variable for a few hours this evening, with increasing cirrus. Next cold front is expected to clear all airports by 12z Wed, with a sharp increase in north winds, gusting 25-30 kts. Strong northeast winds will continue Wednesday morning, gusting 30-32 kts. High confidence that flight categories will degrade after frontal passage, with consensus of short term models forecasting IFR/LIFR stratus at DDC/GCK/HYS by 15z Wed, MVFR at LBL. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Turner