Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 260520
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cooler and drier air mass will settle over the area tonight and
Wednesday with moderating temperatures Thu-Fri.
- A fast moving storm system may bring a brief wintry mix to the
area late Saturday.
- Probabilities for light wintry precipitation(20-30%) may
return late Sun into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening and
tonight as surface high pressure builds into the area. This will set
the stage for a cold night with lows ranging from the mid 20s in
central KS to the low 30s in eastern KS.
Wed-Thu...mild and dry conditions are expected through the period as
we remain in a northwest flow regime. With sfc high pressure nosing
into the area, we expect light winds and a mix of sun and high
clouds leading to tranquil weather conditions.
Friday-Saturday...as we move into Friday a shortwave trough is
progged to build into the Northern Rockies which will break down the
upper level ridge. The pressure gradient will also increase with
breezy southerly flow and another mild day anticipated. As we move
into the overnight hours on Friday/early Saturday, low level
moisture will gradually increase ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough. We will see increasing probabilities (30-60 percent) for
showers and we move into the predawn hours with steep mid-lvl lapse
rates and low lvl moisture transport taking aim on southern Kansas.
A strong cold front will usher in much colder air on Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening and we could see a brief transition
from rain to snow just before the precipitation comes to an end. With
a warm ground and such a brief window of opportunity for wintry
precipitation, the impacts are expected to remain minimal at this
time.
Sunday-Tuesday...much colder air is anticipated Sun-Mon with highs
remaining below freezing for many areas. Another shortwave trough
could impact the region late Sunday into Monday bringing a round of
light wintry precipitation to the area but confidence in the details
remains fairly low at this time. Temperatures may begin to moderate
a bit on Tuesday while remaining below average for early Dec.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region over the
next 24hrs with light northwest winds. Some mid level clouds
will move into the area during the late afternoon/evening hours.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 260505
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1005 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.
- First round of snow is expected Friday night into Saturday
morning. Light snowfall is forecast, but impacts to visibility
are possible.
- Second round of snow and the cold temperatures are expected to
arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
Gusty to strong winds are ongoing in wake of cold front in response
to a strong low pressure system across the northern Plains. A few
sporadic wind gusts of 55-60 mph has been observed as the system has
remained a bit more broad as what was anticipated. Tonight, winds
will rapidly decline as the nocturnal inversion sets up
remaining around 10-15 mph sustained. A surface high is
forecast to move into the area bringing chilly temperatures in
the teens as dew points are forecast to fall into the low to mid
teens and continued weakening of the winds. I trended
temperatures a few degrees lower than the previously forecast
but due to winds slowly becoming more westerly which typically
promotes temperatures from fully plummeting did not fully drop
temperatures down to the current forecasted dew points.
Wednesday, northwest flow is forecast to re-enforece itself across
the area. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be in
the low 40s to upper 40s with the coolest across the east in
response to being in closer proximity to the cold front. Have
actually increased temperatures a little bit due to
southwesterly winds ongoing for the majority of the day. Have
been noticing guidance has been picking up on a weak wave
within the flow originating from the Cheyenne Ridge and
increasing 850-700mb moisture and omega with the 15Z RAP13 run
showing around 6-8 microbars in the 700-600mb level. Have
introduced sprinkles into the forecast for northern portions of
the area due to dry air remaining near the surface with perhaps
some flurries mixing in after sunset as temperatures cool into
the low to mid 30s but not anticipating any impacts with this
activity.
Thanksgiving Day continues to look tranquil as the northwest flow
broadens out a bit through the day with near normal
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s forecast. Cloud cover is
forecast to increase as the day goes as moisture advection
occurs from the south. Still may need to keep an eye on some fog
or stratus development Thursday evening and overnight into
Friday morning as surface winds become more south-southeasterly
with the moisture advection. But at this time the threat for
any hazards is less than 5% chance of occurring.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
Starting the extended period Friday and through the weekend as the
pattern then does become more active as a cold front remains
forecast to move into the area. Not much has changed from the
overnight shift's discussion as all of that continues to remain on
track. Confidence does continue to increase in snowfall starting
Friday night and into Saturday morning as the cold front interacts
with the moisture advection from the south along with a developing
surface low across southwest Kansas. There does continue to be some
concern for a band or bands of snow along the front and any other
mesoscale FGEN bands behind the front resulting in some blowing snow
potential as the pressure gradient tightens. Current soil
temperatures at the Goodland office is in the upper 40s but with
some colder nights leading up to this the soil temperature may
fall into the upper 30s/low 40s which may lead to some flash
freeze potential on roadways or at least on elevated surfaces.
Do continue to see the pockets of instability that the previous
shift was discussing which does bring about some snow squall
potential with this front. Still though even with the ground
temperatures more than likely remaining above freezing most of
the snowfall should melt on contact severely limiting
accumulation potential. Light snowfall potential continues
through the remainder of the weekend before coming to an end to
start the new work week. With the consistent easterly upslope
flow especially on Friday night and Saturday night freezing
drizzle and freezing fog is also a possibility as well which may
be even more impactful than just a light snow.
As for temperatures, confidence is high in much colder air filtering
into the region starting Saturday morning. High temperatures for the
weekend are currently forecast to not get much if at all above
freezing. I still think that the NBM is to warm on temperatures
especially with the consistent CAA, cloud cover and the fact
that arctic air masses are so shallow that guidance struggles to
pick up on the true cold nature of them. With that being said
confidence is around 50-60% that highs Saturday and Sunday will
struggle to get out of the 20s. Same thing goes for low
temperatures confidence is high that overnight temperatures
will fall into the single digits and even in the realm of
possibility of some below zero temperatures for the same
reasoning as above. For the start of the week, confidence is
low in the current temperatures in the forecast. I feel the NBM
is loading in to much of the drier solutions and due to the
chaotic synoptic pattern I would not be surprised if
temperatures are 5-10 degrees cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Winds continue to weaken as the center of higher
pressure moves over the area. Winds should remain roughly from
the west overnight, then shift to be more southerly during the
day tomorrow. There is a possibility of flurries and sprinkles
between 18 and 06Z as some mid-level moisture moves over the
area.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 260446
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1046 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thanksgiving is looking cool and dry with mostly sunny skies and
highs in the 40s.
- Rain is likely (50-80% chance) by Saturday morning. Some light
is forecast to develop through Saturday afternoon.
- There is a 20-50% chance for some light snow accumulations
Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Very cold air is expected for Sunday and Monday with temperatures
remaining below freezing and wind chills in the single digits and
teens for much of that time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
20Z water vapor imagery showed a low pressure system over the
northern plains moving into the Upper Midwest and another wave off
the coast of the Alaskan panhandle. Surface obs had a low over
southern MN with a trailing cold front across western MO and
southeast KS.
The short term forecast is for windy but dry conditions to prevail
through tonight. Models keep a strong enough pressure gradient at
the surface for winds to remain gusty through the evening and
perhaps into Wednesday morning. But the low pressure system to the
north should not have an impact to our weather other than the windy
conditions. I would not be surprised based on the RAP and HRRR progs
if a few locations near the NEB state line flirt with wind advisory
criteria with gusts near 40 mph. But these magnitude of wind gusts
look to be so short lived that a wind advisory wouldn't make a lot
of sense.
Models are in pretty good agreement in some mid level frontogenesis
developing Wednesday night with good saturation for some light
precip. Forecast soundings show good vertical motion through the mid
clouds, but forecast some very dry air below 800MB or about the
lowest 5 KFT. So the question is does the forcing and saturation win
out over the low level dry air? The GFS is the only solution
developing QPF and the CAMs are hard pressed to show much
reflectivity. Decided to hold off on adding a mention of precip to
the forecast thinking if it does develop, it should be so light as
to not provide much of an impact. Though if it does reach the
ground, wetbulb cooling would argue for flurries or light snow
passing through central KS Wednesday evening. Later shifts can take
another look at this.
The weather for Thanksgiving looks quiet if not on the cool side.
Mostly sunny skies may help make it feel a little warmer, but
surface ridging and light winds are expected to keep highs in the
lower to middle 40s.
The big weather maker is anticipated to impact the forecast area
Friday night and through the day Saturday. 12Z guidance is in
reasonable agreement of an open shortwave passing through the
central U.S. bringing a strong cold front through the area Saturday
afternoon. Good moisture advection ahead of the front and the
forcing from the wave is expected to cause precipitation (50 to 80
percent chance) initially in the form of rain to develop late Friday
night. As the cold front passes and temps begin to fall, the rain
may change over to light snow Saturday afternoon and evening. This
is supported by the 00Z ensembles and the NBM seems to handle the
situation pretty well. The expectation is for some minor if any
accumulations mainly on grassy surfaces. Since the dynamics are
mainly frontal driven, the opportunity for sustained snowfall is
limited by the dry air moving in behind the front. The operational
GFS seems to be on outlier with it's QPF prog Saturday afternoon. It
appears as though it is trying to form a mesoscale band of precip.
But it is difficult to see how moisture could wrap around to the
cold side of the front while the warm conveyor belt remains out
ahead of the front. The NBM mean QPF forecast seems reasonable with
amounts generally a tenth of an inch or less as the cold air moves
in. And the probability for measurable snowfall (i.e. greater than
0.1 inch) is in the 20 to 50 percent range. Probabilities for an
inch or more fall to 25 percent or less.
Behind the front a Canadian high is progged to build in to the
central plains through Monday. This is expected to bring sub
freezing temperatures to the area for Sunday and Monday with wind
chills in the single digits and teens for most of that time. Models
continue to struggle with the evolution of the synoptic pattern
early next week. Cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles showed there
was still a good chunk of ensembles leaving energy over the
southwest, and the 12Z ECMWF, while not completely cutting off an
upper low, has trended towards a deeper low over the southwest. In
any case surface high pressure over the central plains and a more
southern track to shortwave energy may keep precip chances to the
south of the area. Confidence in the forecast for early next week
is low until models converge on how the pattern will evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Northwest winds 10-15 kts with occasional gusts will
continue at KTOP and KFOE through mid afternoon tomorrow. Winds will
be a bit weaker farther west towards KMHK. Winds weaken tomorrow
evening, while mid-level clouds increase. Also watching the
potential for a brief flurry tomorrow evening towards KMHK, though
confidence in this remains very low.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 260445
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1045 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread hard/killing freeze in the 20s Wednesday morning.
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Friday.
- A strong arctic cold front is scheduled to arrive Saturday
morning. North winds Saturday will gust near 50 mph, with
falling temperatures during the day Saturday.
- Wind chill indices near zero degrees Sunday and Monday
mornings, with afternoon temperatures struggling to get above
freezing.
- Light snow northeast zones Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
A ridge of high pressure will drop southward across the FA
through the morning hours. The pressure gradient will relax as
this occurs. The breezy NW/N winds will weaken by dusk.
Uneventful weather will prevail tonight through Friday. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the 20s.
For Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will shift off to
the E/SE. Light southerly flow will develop in its wake. Highs
tomorrow will be in the mix of 40s in the north to around 50F in
the south. There could be a smattering of high clouds by
evening. Again, the weather pattern will remain uneventful.
For Turkey day, the weather pattern continues to remain banal.
Dry upper level northwesterly flow will prevail with light
southerly flow at the sfc. The net result is a quiescent weather
pattern for the day. Highs again should be in the mix of 40s
and 50s. Lows in the 20s. These are near normal temperatures for
the year. More of the same is expected for Friday, with just a
few degrees warmer in both highs and lows.
Attention then turns to the weekend. Some good news is that the
outlier GFS from yesterday has come in agreement with the
deterministic EC as well as both the EPS and GEFS. Have higher
confidence of a slug of Arctic air advecting in across the FA
over the weekend. Much colder highs with values in the 30s and
lows in the teens are now forecast by the trending colder NBM.
It will probably be also windier than forecast, as a stout 40-50
kt 850 hPa jet looks to develop in the wake of the strong
front. As far as precipitation is concerned, there could be an
opportunity of a wintry mix Sunday and Monday. Confidence though
in moisture is lower than temperatures. Something to watch.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with
VFR and variable amounts of mid and high clouds. Winds will be
light, less than 12 kts, through the period, variable in
direction.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner
