ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 260520
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cooler and drier air mass will settle over the area tonight and
Wednesday with moderating temperatures Thu-Fri.
- A fast moving storm system may bring a brief wintry mix to the
area late Saturday.
- Probabilities for light wintry precipitation(20-30%) may
return late Sun into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening and
tonight as surface high pressure builds into the area. This will set
the stage for a cold night with lows ranging from the mid 20s in
central KS to the low 30s in eastern KS.
Wed-Thu...mild and dry conditions are expected through the period as
we remain in a northwest flow regime. With sfc high pressure nosing
into the area, we expect light winds and a mix of sun and high
clouds leading to tranquil weather conditions.
Friday-Saturday...as we move into Friday a shortwave trough is
progged to build into the Northern Rockies which will break down the
upper level ridge. The pressure gradient will also increase with
breezy southerly flow and another mild day anticipated. As we move
into the overnight hours on Friday/early Saturday, low level
moisture will gradually increase ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough. We will see increasing probabilities (30-60 percent) for
showers and we move into the predawn hours with steep mid-lvl lapse
rates and low lvl moisture transport taking aim on southern Kansas.
A strong cold front will usher in much colder air on Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening and we could see a brief transition
from rain to snow just before the precipitation comes to an end. With
a warm ground and such a brief window of opportunity for wintry
precipitation, the impacts are expected to remain minimal at this
time.
Sunday-Tuesday...much colder air is anticipated Sun-Mon with highs
remaining below freezing for many areas. Another shortwave trough
could impact the region late Sunday into Monday bringing a round of
light wintry precipitation to the area but confidence in the details
remains fairly low at this time. Temperatures may begin to moderate
a bit on Tuesday while remaining below average for early Dec.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region over the
next 24hrs with light northwest winds. Some mid level clouds
will move into the area during the late afternoon/evening hours.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 260822
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
122 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few sprinkles and flurries are possible late today.
- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.
- First round of snow is expected Friday night into Saturday
morning. Light snowfall is forecast, but impacts to visibility
are possible.
- Second round of snow and the cold temperatures are expected to
arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025
For today, the area is forecast to remain under northwest flow
aloft. With the surface high pressure still over the area, this
should lead to little change in temperatures with highs in the mid
to upper 40s instead of the lower 40s. The day is forecast to start
partly cloudy, but see cloud cover increase as mid level moisture
around 700-400mb moves through the area in the flow. As this
moisture moves through, virga or maybe even some sprinkles may form
with dry air near the surface prohibiting measurable precipitation.
Winds should generally be light below 10 mph, except for counties
along the Colorado border which may be close enough to a surface low
along the Front Range to have a slightly stronger pressure gradient
and winds around 15 mph.
This evening and tonight, the mid-level moisture is forecast to move
off to the east through the night. As it does so, there is the
chance that some lower level moisture also moves in from the
northwest and provides brief chances for showers. Otherwise,
sprinkles and flurries will remain possible. There should be some
breaks in the clouds that allow temperatures to cool to near 20 with
light winds at the surface.
Thanksgiving remains forecast to be an average fall day as we remain
under northwest flow aloft with a weak pressure gradient at the
surface. Temperatures should be able to warm to around 50 before
more cloud cover and chances for virga/sprinkles return later in the
day as more mid-level moisture moves through. Winds should vary in
direction with speeds around 5 to 10 mph.
Thanksgiving night, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are forecast with
mid and high level moisture forecast to stream over the area. Winds
are forecast to strengthen to around 10 mph from the south/southeast
as lower pressure begins to develop and deepen along the Front
Range. This should also bring in some lower level moisture as the
night goes on, allowing for a chance of some fog. That being said,
if the higher level cloud cover does develop, fog may not form at
all as the area remains insulated and temperatures don't reach the
dewpoints.
Friday, a trough is forecast to move through the Northwest United
States towards the area. As it does so, the low pressure along the
Front Range is forecast to deepen and spread further east. This will
likely lead to a scenario where the western half of the area sees
winds around 10 mph and clearer skies underneath the center of the
low. The eastern half of the area conversely may have lingering
cloud cover or fog with the southerly moisture advection. Winds
would also be a bit stronger around 15-20 mph with the stronger
pressure gradient. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s across the
area, though some 40s in the east is possible depending on how thick
the cloud cover is.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
This weekend the pattern becomes more active as a cold front
remains forecast to move into the area. Not much has changed
from the overnight shift's discussion as all of that continues
to remain on track. Confidence does continue to increase in
snowfall starting Friday night and into Saturday morning as the
cold front interacts with the moisture advection from the south
along with a developing surface low across southwest Kansas.
There does continue to be some concern for a band or bands of
snow along the front and any other mesoscale FGEN bands behind
the front resulting in some blowing snow potential as the
pressure gradient tightens. Current soil temperatures at the
Goodland office is in the upper 40s but with some colder nights
leading up to this the soil temperature may fall into the upper
30s/low 40s which may lead to some flash freeze potential on
roadways or at least on elevated surfaces. Do continue to see
the pockets of instability that the previous shift was
discussing which does bring about some snow squall potential
with this front. Still though even with the ground temperatures
more than likely remaining above freezing most of the snowfall
should melt on contact severely limiting accumulation potential.
Light snowfall potential continues through the remainder of the
weekend before coming to an end to start the new work week.
With the consistent easterly upslope flow especially on Friday
night and Saturday night freezing drizzle and freezing fog is
also a possibility as well which may be even more impactful than
just a light snow.
As for temperatures, confidence is high in much colder air filtering
into the region starting Saturday morning. High temperatures for the
weekend are currently forecast to not get much if at all above
freezing. I still think that the NBM is to warm on temperatures
especially with the consistent CAA, cloud cover and the fact
that arctic air masses are so shallow that guidance struggles to
pick up on the true cold nature of them. With that being said
confidence is around 50-60% that highs Saturday and Sunday will
struggle to get out of the 20s. Same thing goes for low
temperatures confidence is high that overnight temperatures
will fall into the single digits and even in the realm of
possibility of some below zero temperatures for the same
reasoning as above. For the start of the week, confidence is
low in the current temperatures in the forecast. I feel the NBM
is loading in to much of the drier solutions and due to the
chaotic synoptic pattern I would not be surprised if
temperatures are 5-10 degrees cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Winds continue to weaken as the center of higher
pressure moves over the area. Winds should remain roughly from
the west overnight, then shift to be more southerly during the
day tomorrow. There is a possibility of flurries and sprinkles
between 18 and 06Z as some mid-level moisture moves over the
area.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 260927
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-A quick moving shortwave could create some snow flurries in
central KS this evening.
-Cold but dry weather is expected for the Thanksgiving holiday this
year.
-A system will bring rain and possibly (20-50% chance) light
snow to the area this weekend as much cooler air moves in from
the north.
-Light snow could again occur (20% chance) early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
This morning, a large surface ridge is building into the area from
the northwest, and low pressure continues northeast into Ontario,
Canada. Breezy winds will subside as high pressure becomes centered
over eastern KS this afternoon. Sky conditions start off sunny, but
high clouds will increase from the northwest this afternoon ahead of
a weak shortwave moving through northwest flow aloft. Forecast
soundings show some mid-level saturation ahead of that wave, while
the first 3 kft to 5 kft remain fairly dry. A few of the high
resolution models, including the FV3, NAM and NAMNest, show some
light QPF developing in central KS this evening in response to
some frontogenesis between 850 and 700 mb. Soundings show a
brief period of saturation and lift in the DGZ, so have opted to
include a chance for sprinkles/flurries since any precip that
falls is likely to at least partially evaporate before reaching
the ground.
The Thanksgiving forecast remains cold with temperatures dipping
into the 20s tonight and only recovering into the low to mid 40s
during the afternoon. Dry weather is expected until the next system
impacts the region late Friday and especially on Saturday. On
Friday, lee cyclogenesis will occur as a mid-level trough digs over
the Intermountain West. South winds will increase ahead of the
system, drawing moisture into the region. Models are in agreement in
boundary layer temperatures staying above freezing as precipitation
develops and becomes more widespread Friday night and Saturday
morning. As the system moves east, however, a cold front will
drop temperatures to below freezing from west to east across the
area. Models show rain quickly switching to snow for a few
hours before precip ends, especially in far northern KS. The 00Z
LREF run has a 30% chance of at least 0.1" of snow near I-70
and a 50% chance of the same near the Nebraska border, but only
a 10-20% chance of 1.0" within the same area. Impacts from light snow
are expected to remain minor across northeast KS.
Very chilly conditions will be in place as the next surface ridge
moves in from Canada late this weekend and early next week. Another
round of light precipitation is then looking possible next
Monday when another upper level trough axis approaches from the
west. NBM has only a 20-30% chance for light snow at that time,
with the better lift and moisture associated with the system remaining
southeast of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Northwest winds 10-15 kts with occasional gusts will
continue at KTOP and KFOE through mid afternoon tomorrow. Winds will
be a bit weaker farther west towards KMHK. Winds weaken tomorrow
evening, while mid-level clouds increase. Also watching the
potential for a brief flurry tomorrow evening towards KMHK, though
confidence in this remains very low.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 260800
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Friday.
- A strong arctic cold front is scheduled to arrive Saturday
morning. North winds Saturday will gust near 50 mph, with
falling temperatures during the day Saturday.
- Wind chill indices near zero degrees Sunday and Monday
mornings, with afternoon temperatures struggling to get above
freezing.
- Light snow northeast zones Saturday.
- Widespread light snow possible Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Midnight surface observations indicated a freeze had already
occurred across much of SW KS, with many locations falling into
the 28-32 range. A light and variable wind regime prevailed as
a 1032 mb surface high settles over SW KS. This being said, the
radiational cooling environment is far from ideal, with a light
westerly downslope component to the winds, and more importantly
widespread midlevel clouds per infrared satellite imagery. With
the clouds acting like a blanket, temperatures will remain
steady where these clouds can persist through sunrise. In any
areas that clear for even a brief time, temperatures will fall
closer to 20 degrees through 7 am Wednesday.
Light southerly return flow is expected Wednesday afternoon,
with considerable mid/high clouds embedded in the NWly flow
aloft. Given the clouds, poor mixing, and 850 mb temperatures
holding near 0C, afternoon temperatures will fail to get out of
the 40s at most locations. Quiet dry NWly flow continues on
Thanksgiving, with light winds, and afternoon temperatures a few
degrees warmer into the lower 50s.
Midlevel flow backs to zonal Friday, in response to an
amplifying shortwave diving south through the northern Rockies.
As such, lee cyclogenesis will return to eastern Colorado,
allowing for much stronger south winds Friday. Increased wind
grids to the 90%ile of the NBM, with gusts of 40-45 mph
probable. Friday will the mildest day of the next several days,
with afternoon temperatures further into the 50s.
An intense arctic cold front will plow south through SW KS about
sunrise Saturday. All models have trended toward keeping the
parent trough open and progressive, which always works against
significant precipitation in SW KS during the cold season.
Surface cyclone is modelled to be near Dodge City 6 am Saturday,
then move east to near Wichita noon Saturday. This will open the
floodgates for the coldest air of the season to race south into
SW KS. North winds will be much stronger than NBM Saturday, with
gusts near 50 mph, and will continue to go above guidance in
this regard. Intense cold advection will force a non-diurnal
downward temperature crash during the day, with daytime highs
occurring in the early morning. For example, 850 mb temperatures
near 8C at DDC 6 am Saturday, are progged to fall to -8C at DDC
6 pm Saturday. Morning temperatures in the 40s are expected to
fall into the 20s by late afternoon.
Prospects for significant/accumulating precipitation continue to
fade, given the open, progressive nature of this system. A brief
period or rain/snow mix may clip the northeast zones in the
vicinity of I-70/Hays Saturday morning, as the surface low
tracks eastward through Kansas. NBM probability of snowfall in
excess of 1 inch are limited to this Ellis county vicinity.
Elsewhere, scattered flurries are possible Saturday as the
arctic air pours in, but with no impacts.
Cold arctic high pressure surges south over the central plains
Sunday morning, and NBM continues to trend colder, with air
temperatures well down into the teens sunrise Sunday. North
winds are forecast to remain near 10 mph, pushing wind chills
toward zero. Once the arctic air arrives, it will be here
through Sunday and Monday, with afternoon temperatures
struggling to get above freezing. The current forecast may still
be too warm, as thick clouds could easily restrict afternoon
temperatures to the 20s. Indeed, global model temperature progs
are several degrees colder than the NBM. We encourage residents
to prepare homes and autos for this first arctic air of the
season, and ag producers to prepare their livestock for the
cold.
Outside of a few flurries, Sunday is expected to remain
dry. 00z global models and many ensemble members are focusing a
round of light snow during the Monday timeframe, and 00z MEX is
already carrying likely pops for Monday. A broad overrunning
warm advection regime is forecast over the arctic air, ahead of
the next approaching trough. Snow accumulations from this appear
to remain modest, but this will be watched carefully the next
several days. High confidence that any precipitation Monday
would take the form of snow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with
VFR and variable amounts of mid and high clouds. Winds will be
light, less than 12 kts, through the period, variable in
direction.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
