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Office: ICT

FXUS63 KICT 132044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
244 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave over
Alberta/Saskatchewan diving southward with-in the northwest flow
regime aloft. This system will race across Kansas for late Thursday
afternoon/night, and there is enough vertical motion which could
try to generate some light rain. Temperatures could be cold
enough in the low-levels with a light rain/snow mix possible for
Central Kansas on Thursday night. This system is fleet-footed so
any precipitation that falls would be very light/minimal with no

Heading into Friday winds will switch around to a westerly direction
which should help warm temperatures due to downslope effects. The
warm above normal temperatures will continue into Saturday with
daytime highs possibly rising into the 60s for some locations.
Meanwhile models are showing another upper level wave emerging from
the southwestern states and lifting northeast towards Kansas for
Saturday night. The better precipitation signal favors more of
Southeast Kansas then other parts of the state at this juncture.
Light rain looks to be the predominate type however parts of
Central Kansas could see some light snow for late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Models show a upper level wave moving across the region on Sunday
with decent rain chances for mainly Southeast Kansas, and some light
snow possible for Central Kansas Sunday morning. Snow accumulations
are not looking good with this setup so would expect very light snow
at best given this latest model run. Otherwise dry weather should
prevail for Monday-Wednesday with above normal temperatures back
in play for the Central Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Northwest winds will increase across the entire region for this
afternoon then diminish around sunset. Mid-level clouds will begin
to spread southward into Central Kansas by Thursday morning.


Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The combination of dry/warm air and gusty northwest winds has
created Very High Grassland Fire danger levels for the entire
region this afternoon. The winds will quickly diminish around
sunset and end the grassland fire risk. Very High Grassland Fire
danger will be possible again Saturday afternoon across parts of
Southeast Kansas.


Wichita-KICT    31  47  27  52 /   0  10  20   0
Hutchinson      29  46  24  52 /   0  10  20   0
Newton          29  45  26  51 /   0  10  30   0
ElDorado        29  45  27  50 /   0  10  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   30  47  27  51 /   0   0  20   0
Russell         28  45  21  55 /   0  20  10   0
Great Bend      28  46  21  55 /   0  20  20   0
Salina          28  44  25  52 /   0  20  20   0
McPherson       28  45  23  52 /   0  10  30   0
Coffeyville     32  45  28  49 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         31  43  28  48 /   0  10  10   0
Iola            30  43  28  47 /   0  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    32  44  28  49 /   0  10  10   0





Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 132341 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 441 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 Tonight: Mid/upper level moisture assoc/w shortwave energy digging SSE through through Idaho at 20Z will overspread the CO Front Range and High Plains this evening/tonight as the wave digs SSE through western portions of the 4-corners region. Further upstream, shortwave energy digging SSE through Alberta/Saskatchewan this afternoon will rapidly progress SE into eastern MT and the Dakotas overnight. Some degree of link-age will occur between the aforementioned waves overnight, resulting in a positively tilted trough that extends from the Desert SW northeast into the Central/ Northern Plains by 12Z Thu. Dry adiabatic thermal profiles above H5 (~20 KFT) will saturate between 00-06Z this evening, presumably in association with some degree of H5-H25 DPVA /layer lifting/ and increasing upper level moisture. Thus, overcast cirrostratus should develop by 06Z tonight. Despite cold advection beneath H5, further saturation is progged in the H7-H5 layer by 12Z Thu, and guidance is indicating a potential for very light precipitation (snow) by sunrise, primarily in eastern CO. Due to the idiopathic nature of H7-H5 forcing and the initial presence of a very dry sub-cloud layer, confidence is low w/regard to whether or not light snow will be observed. At this time will indicate a 20-30% chance of light snow between 09-12Z, generally along/west of the CO border, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thursday: Overcast skies should abate between 15-18Z, though low/mid-level cold advection will persist into the afternoon, perhaps resulting in the development of glaciated diurnal Cu based at 5-6 KFT agl. Isold sprinkles and/or flurries cannot be ruled out, though no measurable precip is expected. Expect highs in the 40s with gusty NW winds sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45-50 mph, windiest in eastern CO and extreme western KS. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 116 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 Friday through Wednesday the main focus will be the diminishing chances for precipitation Saturday night. Saturday night an upper level short wave trough will move through the center of the country following a cold front. Chances for precipitation continue to fall as we approach Saturday night. There is some lift over the forecast area as the trough moves through. However dew point depressions are growing, and the trough is elongating more toward the Desert Southwest. Even though the precipitation chances are spread out over more of the forecast area, have very little confidence of any measurable precipitation occurring Saturday night due to the weather pattern resembling split flow. Both the GFS and ECMWF are shifting the majority of the precipitation to the Southern CONUS. This seems very reasonable given the resemblance to split flow which directs precipitation either north or south of the forecast area. Saturday there is a potential for the cold front to come through during the day instead of the night, as has been shown the last couple of days. If the cold front comes through during the day, north winds will be gusty behind the front, with gusts around 35 MPH. After this trough passage the upper level ridge will build back over the Great Basin and onto High Plains, bringing dry and warmer weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 423 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the TAF period. Light north winds through the night will become gusty and turn more northwesterly as clouds thicken into a ceiling that lowers but remains VFR between 6-8kft AGL after about 15Z. Peak winds will occur between 19Z-22Z with gusts as high as 35kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...LOCKHART
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 132325 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 525 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 As of 20Z Wednesday afternoon, the stagnant mid-level pattern continues across the entire CONUS. Two of the three mid-level features of interest reside with two shortwave troughs descending southeast along the western periphery of the broad, mid-level trough. The first shortwave of interest has pushed into the Great Lakes region. Its associated surface trough pushed through the CWA early this morning, veering winds to the northwest. A surface pressure gradient on the order of 4-5 hPa across the CWA, coupled with a well mixed BL to H85 yielded sustained winds near 30 MPH with gusts upwards of 40-50 MPH earlier this afternoon. As the aforementioned surface cyclone progresses eastward, the pressure gradient will continue to weaken. Wind speeds have already responded to the weakening gradient, therefore the wind advisory has been allowed to expire. Tonight: Increasing cloud cover is expected overnight in response to wrap around moisture from the system in the Great Lakes, and a secondary shortwave across the Continental Divide. With the increased cloud cover, temperatures should remain near 30 overnight. Thursday: The third clipper system of note will translate southeast within the northwest flow toward the central Plains tomorrow evening. Guidance continues to shear the compact shortwave as it approaches the area. That being said, forecast soundings continue to suggest the potential for scattered snow showers along the surface trough after sunset Thursday into the early overnight hours. ARW/NMM/NAM/GFS all suggest 0.01 to 0.02 inches of liquid QPF. This translates to minimal snowfall with most areas being limited to a light dusting. High temperatures look to range from the low to middle 40s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 The remainder of the period looks to consist of above normal temperatures with another chance for light precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. The aforementioned mid-level shortwave across the Continental Divide will become cutoff across the Baja region by weeks end. Transitioning into the weekend, the cutoff low will eject into the southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday night and Sunday. Quality moisture looks to remain southeast of the CWA. That being said, thermal profiles would support a rain and/or snow mix across the area. Again, QPF amounts look to remain less than a tenth of an inch for much of the area. Any lingering precipitation would transition to all rain by the day time hours on Sunday as temperatures warm well above freezing. Otherwise, the remainder of the period looks quiet with no notable clipper systems traversing across the central Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Increasing clouds are expected in the overnight hours. Models vary on how low ceilings fall near sunrise and early afternoon, with some hinting at MVFR ceilings during this timeframe. For now, kept a scattered deck in overnight, then broken to overcast VFR ceilings later. Will need to continue to monitor trends on cloud decks for the next TAF issuance. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Heller
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 132300 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 500 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 ...updated aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Although drier conditions are expected to persist during the period, there is an outside shot for extremely light precip across extreme western Kansas late tonight as an upper level shortwave in the Northern Rockies drops south-southeast into the Central Rockies and the Western High Plains. Much drier air will persist in the lower/mid levels through late this evening, but short range model soundings show vertical profiles beginning to moisten and nearing saturation late tonight as the shortwave drops into Colorado. Considering extreme weak QPF signals are present, will retain a slight chance for light snow across west central and extreme southwest Kansas for early Thursday morning. A secondary upper level shortwave will drop south across the Dakotas into Nebraska and Kansas Thursday afternoon resulting in an additional slight chance for precip across central Kansas late in the period. Colder air will filter into western Kansas tonight in wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today. Expect lows well down into the 30s(F) again tonight with the upper 20s(F) possible in some locations. Colder air will spread southward across western Kansas through the day Thursday lowering H85 temperatures down to around 0C. Should see highs only up into the 40s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 50F still possible in south central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 236 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A drier pattern will set up through the end of the week as a northwest flow aloft develops across the Western High Plains in wake of a departing upper level shortwave trough. Medium range models show ridging aloft breaking down as it moves out of the Intermountain West into the Central Plains early in the period. A relatively weak flow aloft and a lack of low/mid level moisture will help keep precip chances at bay through at least Saturday night. There is a very slight chance for light precip Sunday as an upper level trough digs into the Desert Southwest creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is projected to push through western Kansas sometime late in the weekend, providing a focus for increased forcing. Still, limited moisture will hinder precip chances in general Sunday. A warm up is likely Friday as weak lee side troughing develops across eastern Colorado setting up a westerly downslope flow into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C. Should see highs up into the mid to upper 50s(F) Friday afternoon. The warming trend continues Saturday as the lee side trough strengthens bringing about a more southwest flow. This will enhance warm air advection into western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures up around to a little above 10C. Expect highs closer to 60F Saturday afternoon. Colder temperatures return late in the weekend as a cold front pushes through western Kansas sometime Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 500 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Northwest winds 5-10 kt will prevail tonight. Winds will increase 10-20 kt by mid morning and continue through much of the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 29 46 21 55 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 29 45 20 56 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 29 43 22 57 / 20 20 0 0 LBL 31 45 20 56 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 29 44 22 54 / 0 20 10 0 P28 32 49 24 54 / 0 10 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Sugden