ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder air spreads south for today and Thursday with possible
sprinkles/snow flurries today, no weather impacts expected
- Single digit wind chills for early Thursday morning
- Dry weather slated for several days across the region with warmer
temperatures for early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Current early morning surface analysis shows leading edge of
southward moving polar air approaching South Dakota/Nebraska border.
The polar air will spread into northern/central Kansas by this
afternoon and continue to move south tonight. Areas of semi-
low level saturation ahead and just behind the polar front today
could yield sprinkles/snow flurries, however dry air advection
quickly overtakes this semi-low level moistening during the
night time hours from north to south thus ending the light
precipitation chances. Winds chills will drop into the single
digits by early Thursday morning along with colder daytime highs
in the 30s. Temperatures rebound for Friday and Saturday with
the dry weather pattern continuing and near normal daytime
highs.
Saturday night into Sunday there are vast differences between GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF models with the handling of a upper level wave
diving southeast across the Rockies then ejecting out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas. GEFS ensemble trends does show this 500mb
wave with a slight slow down/deepening. The GFS model is way more
enthusiastic with its 850mb-700mb warm air advection signal
compared to ECMWF/Canadian models. We will continue to watch
model trends for this period since upper level waves that dive
southeast across the Rockies and emerge out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas with a noticeable deepening phase
typically yield interesting winter weather setups for our area.
At this time, it is a low confidence forecast given the vast
model differences. The better precipitation signal for all
models during this period still favors locations east of Kansas
mainly across Missouri. Heading into early next week long range
models are showing a warmer weather pattern with upper level
ridge amplifying over the Rockies and gradually shifting east.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
A cold front will push southward across the region during the
afternoon hours today with low clouds in the MVFR category
overspreading the region. North winds will also be on the
increase behind the frontal passage. The low clouds will
gradually scatter out from north to south across the region
tonight.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 031110
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
410 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is forecast to continue over mainly western
portions of the area, lasting into Wednesday night. Most of
the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern Colorado and
potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.
- Patchy blowing snow today in eastern Colorado may lead to
minor/nuisance travel impacts.
- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
to low teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Over the past few hours, we've had virga across the CWA with the
southeastern portions of the CWA likely seeing some flurries reach
the ground. The dry layer near the surface has prevented most of the
snow from reaching the ground. This dry layer is forecast to erode
over the next 12 hours, which will allow more of the snow to reach
the ground.
There are two "waves" of snow moving through the area. The first one
is being forced from pre-frontal 500mb vorticity. This wave is
responsible for the bulk of the overnight virga and stray flurries
east of the Colorado border. This wave is expected to vacate the CWA
by 12-15Z this morning.
The second wave is from the main trough cutting through the region.
This is becoming pretty disorganized system and slowing down as it
comes over the Rockies. This will lead to more prolonged, but lower
PoPs than in previous forecasts. This wave will remain largely over
the western CWA, and will lead to 1-2 inches of snowfall in the
western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. There is a 10-
20% chance of isolated pockets of 3-4 inches on the western fringes
of the CWA. Precipitation is on the CWA border as of 7Z and will
slowly spread to the east over the early morning hours. The ending
time for the snow is a big question and could end as early as 21Z
today or last until about 6-9Z Thursday morning.
Throughout most of the daylight hours, winds gusts are forecast to
be in the 15-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly
in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest.
Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than
1 mile is about 50%. Localized whiteout conditions cannot be ruled
out, but only have a ~10% chance of occurring.
With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected to stay below
freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout
the day, temperatures in the western portions of the CWA will
largely remain under freezing. It appears somewhere between the
eastern Colorado border and KS highway 27 will be the "thaw" line
today as locations to the east will see the above freezing
temperatures.
Tonight, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend from the
Northern Rockies. The speed and intensity of this high will play a
major factor as to how quickly the precipitation end. Based on
current guidance, PoPs will rapidly decline between 0-6Z, lingering
in the southwestern CWA the longest. As the night progresses, the
skies over the CWA will slowly clear out and help temperatures cool.
Once again, the speed and intensity of the high will play a major
factor into low temperatures tonight. Most likely, the northeastern
CWA will see clear skies for a couple hours, allowing temperatures
to drop into the low teens while the rest of the CWA is blanketed
with clouds, leaving temperatures in the upper teens. If the clouds
clear out quicker, more of the area will cool into the low teens,
and potentially upper single digits. Wind chills are currently
forecast to remain in the mid to upper single digits Thursday
morning, but could be near 0 if temperatures drop.
There is a low (<10%) chance of freezing fog early Thursday morning
across the eastern half of the CWA. However, it's likely
temperatures will be too cold to support fog and instead will lead
to very light flurries.
Thursday, the remainder of the clouds will clear out of the area and
temperatures will rebound. Highs are forecast to be around 40 for
most of the CWA. The southwestern CWA is forecast to remain in the
mid 30 as recent snowfall will stunt temperatures.
Overnight Thursday night, a weak shortwave trough will likely move
over the region, but moisture is severely lacking, so additional
precipitation is not expected. Temperatures are forecast to cool to
around 20, save for the southwestern CWA. Again, recent snowfall
will keep temperatures about 5 degrees cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
Northwest flow continues over the central plains through the
long term period. Embedded weak waves will bring occasional
chances for light snow/flurries/sprinkles, but impactful
amounts are unlikely. Operational GFS has trended a bit higher
with snow amounts Saturday and Saturday night (1" to 3" from
McCook to Norton), but GFS ensemble average shows less than half
an inch as do the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles. So will wait
and see if this is just a temporary blip from the GFS or a
trend. Precipitation amounts during the remainder of the period
are negligible. Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be near
normal, followed by a slight warming trend Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Normal highs for
the period are in the upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025
While some flurries have been observed at KGLD overnight, the
bulk of the snow has held off and is still expected to remain
generally west of the airport. Prob30 groups have been included
at KGLD in case the precipitation extends further east. MVFR
ceilings are forecast to dominate the period starting around
12-14Z for KGLD.
KMCK is still forecast to remain clear of the majority of the
snow, but could still see some flurries. MVFR ceilings are
expected to move in around 15Z and remain until the late
afternoon. Guidance is showing a wave or two of lowered ceilings
around 1,000 feet AGL around 16-18Z. During this time, it's
entirely possible IFR ceilings will briefly move in, but
confidence is only around 33-40%
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 031105
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
505 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Turning sharply colder again by this evening behind a cold front.
Wind chills fall to near zero for Thursday morning.
- A few flurries possible today along the cold front, but not
expecting any accumulation.
- Temperatures warm some for the weekend and early next week,
but stay below average. Only a few low precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
The current upper pattern across the CONUS is dominated by large-
scale troughing, anchored by a deep low over Hudson Bay and strong
ridging over the northeast Pacific. Within the longer-wave trough,
an embedded shortwave is moving over the Central Rockies towards the
Plains. This shortwave is very positively tilted and is deamplifying
as a result of confluent upper flow over the eastern CONUS. As such,
conditions are not favorable for widespread precipitation to
develop. Still, as a sharp cold front steadily presses southward
today, low-level convergence should be enough for a few bands of
flurries to develop. Already seeing one of these bands out towards
central KS, with low-level dry air for now preventing anything from
reaching the ground. Not expecting any accumulation, but can't
completely rule out a brief dusting in a few spots. This would be
most likely south of I-35 in east-central KS this evening as upper
jet dynamics briefly become a bit more supportive.
Temperatures begin to fall by mid-afternoon behind the front,
falling into the teens by late evening. Still not out of the
question that we approach record lows tomorrow morning, as a 1035 mb
high quickly moves overhead. However this would be heavily dependent
on skies clearing and allowing for ideal radiational cooling. If
clouds persist longer towards sunrise, would likely stay a solid 10
degrees warmer than if clouds can clear by 3-4 AM. Temperatures
likely stay in the 20s all day tomorrow as the surface ridge axis
remains nearby.
We'll warm up some to start the weekend, as southerly flow returns
on the back side of the surface high. However persistent northwest
flow and eastern CONUS troughing will still keep us a bit below
average. Within this northwest flow, we're still watching a
shortwave that will move through the midwest late Saturday into
Sunday. The GFS remains a stronger/more amplified outlier, with the
vast majority of other guidance and ensembles keeping the wave
weaker and to our north. This would keep our area dry, or at worst
bring just a few flurries to northeast Kansas. Heading into next
week, some indications are that the eastern Pacific ridge will
expand east towards the Rockies, bringing temperatures back close to
average.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Winds stay light and southwesterly for the next few hours
before switching to the north and increasing to 10-15 kts behind a
strong late morning cold front. MVFR to locally IFR ceilings are
also expected to approach around an hour or two after the cold front
passage. These lower ceilings should scatter out over the evening
hours, with winds also gradually becoming lighter overnight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...
Current Record Forecast
Topeka 8, set in 1902 9
Concordia -2, set in 1886 8
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 031605
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1005 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
next 7-10 days, through at least December 12th.
- Cloudy windy and much colder Wednesday.
- Light snow near the Colorado border and the southwest counties
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Minor accumulations up to
one inch possible.
- Continued cold Thursday, with temperatures moderating back to
normal Friday.
- Another dry cold front over the upcoming weekend with no
impacts.
- Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday and next Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Currently the northern half of the CWA is experiencing some
virga along an axis of roughly La Cross to Syracuse. The
observations, including at Hays, have yet to register anything
hitting the ground. The expansiveness of the Virga has begun to
erode with it expected to be gone by sunrise. Current surface
analysis places a weak low pressure system into the Texas
panhandle. Aloft, the deep and positively tilted trough came to
fruition as progged and is now dipping into the four corner
states. This system will be the most notable aspect of the
entire forecast period.
As the system approaches Kansas on Wednesday, the presently
light and variable winds will increase significantly up to 25
mph with gusts potentially exceeding 30 mph out of the
north/northwest. Along with winds and plenty of cloud cover,
snow chances return to SW Kansas. The model/ensemble runs have
been very consistent in location (limited to near the Kansas and
Colorado border), but with moderate fluctuations in chances and
amounts. The previous forecasts have been pretty resilient to
previous changes in guidance. Areas along the border have the
best chance for snow (up to 75% chance via ensembles). Those
same areas, and as far east as Ulysses have over a 40%
probability to exceed 0.5" of snow. Confidence continues to grow
will little divergence of previous forecasts. While the far
western Kansas' forecast has held pat, the remaining uncertainty
it largely the rest of the area. Some CAM runs have snow
reaching much of the area, including east of Highway 283,
although accumulation are near zero (<15% via ensembles). That
said a couple stray snowflakes can not be ruled out. Regardless,
even in western areas that could see meaningful accumulations
impacts are expected to be minimal. Modeled precipitable water
continues to be low at around 0.5". With a more subtle forcing
and less moisture to work with, snow is expected to be fairly
light and not be too impactful. The Winter Storm Severity Index
only has a 20% for minor winter weather impacts. While travel
precautions are advised, transportation and commerce are not
forecast to be too heavily impacted. Lowered ceilings will
likely be the most impactful aspect of the system.
By Thursday the system will be largely evacuated. A weak front
is expected Thursday morning, but winds will be largely light
enough to not warrant notable temperature advection. Ensembles
have the synoptic pattern shift to a primarily zonal flow. This
pattern shift will kick off a very dry and seasonal period.
Precipitation chances through the rest of the forecast period
are very low with ensemble chances <5%. After Thursday warms up
from a cooler Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the 40-50s
primarily which is typical for SW Kansas in early December.
Relative humidities will be high even to quell fire weather
risk. No precipitation, normal temperatures, and pleasant winds
with clear skies will culminate in a very quiet and
insignificant stretch of weather for the next 7-10 days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
MVFR stratus is expected to spread over the airports over the
next several hours, and persist into this evening. Strong
northeast winds will prevail through 00z Thu, gusting
25-28 kts. Any light snow in this TAF period is expected to
remain west of the airports. The only expection may be LBL,
where some models suggest a few hours of -SN are possible
00-06z Thu. Northeast winds will trend light and variable
through 12z Thu, as strong surface ridging builds over SW KS.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner
