ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 300756
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
156 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Single digit wind chills this morning with high temperatures
15-20 degrees below normal today.
- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Monday for areas
along and north of Highway 50 as accumulating snowfall is
likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave trough
moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley with zonal flow aloft in
our area. An additional upper-level trough is digging into the
northwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved into the
Northern Plains. In our area, northerly winds persist with much
colder air surging south. Temperatures have dropped into the teens
and lower 20s which is 10-15 degrees below normal. As we move
towards sunrise, wind chills will continue to drop into the single
digits across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will follow
suit and be 15-20 degrees below normal. Highs will generally
struggle to reach above freezing with the upper 20s forecast for
central KS and low 30s in south-central to southeast KS.
Tonight, the aforementioned upper-level trough over the northwestern
CONUS will continue to dig and move southeast into the Central
Rockies by Monday morning. This trough will move across our area on
Monday, increasing snowfall chances. Snow is forecast to start
Monday morning in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, as lift
increases from the upper-trough coupled with the left exit region of
upper jet. Given the increased lift generally falls in the DGZ, this
can lead to efficient snowfall rates. Additionally, these features
combined with increased low-level WAA and 850 mb frontogenesis could
lead to a heavier band of snow developing in central KS. Therefore,
the heaviest snowfall is likely Monday morning. The HREF generally
has 60% probability of greater than 2 inches of snow in central KS
with NBM probabilities between 30-50%. As the upper low moves
southeast into the Mississippi Valley with the low-level trough,
snow chances will shift into eastern Kansas and Missouri. General
snowfall amounts outside the heavier band will likely be in the 0.5
to 1" range across central to south-central KS. Given surface winds
will be between 5-10 mph, blowing snow will be less of a concern,
but reduced visibility is likely in the heavier snow band. HREF
is showing probabilities between 60-75% of less than a mile
visibility due to snowfall rates. All of this to say, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of
Highway 50.
Tuesday and beyond... The next upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the northwestern CONUS on Tuesday then move into the
southwestern CONUS on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF forecast this
trough to shift towards the Central Rockies late Thursday night.
This system could bring the next round of precipitation to the area
Thursday night into Friday, though confidence is not high at this
time. Outside of precipitation, temperatures will remain below
normal throughout the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period, except at
CNU where MVFR ceilings continue to linger. There remains a 20%
chance that these lower ceilings may continue through the
overnight hours. Winds will start shifting northeasterly Sunday
morning into the afternoon, then shifting to easterly by Sunday
night.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...GC
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 300806
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
106 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s today and 30s
tomorrow. Lows are forecast to be in the single digits and
teens.
- Snow is forecast to move through the area tonight. Most of the
area should see less than an inch of snow, but locales
generally east of Highway 27 could see one to two inches.
- Dense fog is possible tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
Another cold day is forecast for today as the high pressure system
remains over the area for most of the day. Temperatures should be in
the teens and 20s with highs maxing out in the mid to upper 20s.
High level cloud cover is forecast to continue to move over the area
as we remain downstream of the next upper trough, putting the area
underneath mostly cloudy skies. Winds are forecast to be lower for
the area today with eastern portions of the area forecast to have
wind speeds around 10 mph. Counties along the Colorado border are
forecast to see slightly stronger winds around 15-20 mph as a low
pressure system develops along the Southern Front Range ahead of the
next trough.
This evening and through the overnight hours, the upper trough is
forecast to begin pushing east into and through the area. As it does
so, it is forecast to push some saturated air through the area while
the surface low shift just southwest of the area. This combined
setup should allow some snow showers to form and push through the
area. With the system having a steady progression, the snow showers
should form in Eastern Colorado and near the Tri-State border and
push steadily east. However, as the surface low also pushes east,
locales along and east of a line from Leoti, KS to Colby, KS to
Trenton, NE are forecast to be on the wrap around side of the low.
This combined with more saturated air is forecast to allow for
greater snow residency and some slightly stronger snow showers.
While not enough for any drastic differences, the western portion of
the area is forecast to see around a trace to half an inch of snow
whereas the aforementioned wrap around zone is forecast to see an
inch or two of snow. With ensembles still showing some discrepancy
with the progression of the trough, amounts could be half an inch to
an inch higher if the trough does pull west and keep the wrap around
zone further west. Even in this scenario, the probability of seeing
more than 3 inches of snow is 15%, so snow amounts are not too
concerning at this time. Thankfully, the trough is forecast to be
tilted and broad which is keeping both the height gradients and the
surface pressure gradient on the weaker side. This should keep winds
in the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts to 25 mph, keeping the threat of
blowing snow very low. The main concern from a hazard perspective is
the possibility for dense fog in the aforementioned favored area. If
moisture is wrapping around and concentrating there, it wouldn't be
unreasonable for dense fog to form. Lows overnight are forecast to
be in the teens again with the cold air mass till mostly over the
area.
Monday, the upper trough should finish swinging through the area and
push the moisture to the east. This will allow any precipitation and
dense fog to end during the morning hours, with the cloud cover
clearing during the remainder of the day. As the trough does push
the colder air east, some warmer air is forecast to advect in from
behind it and allow the area to warm into the 30s as long as the sun
does break through. Winds are forecast to be in the 10 to 20 mph
range as the high pressure pushes east and lower pressure develops
to the west.
Monday night, clear skies are forecast for most of the night until
some possible higher clouds push in with northwest flow aloft. Winds
near the surface are forecast to be fairly light around 5 to 10 mph
as we remain far between systems and the pressure gradient weakens.
Lows are forecast to drop into the teens again.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
A broad zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS this period
with a nearly stationary upper low anchored over eastern
Canada. A series of embedded shortwave troughs will bring some
chances for light snow. The first system will organize in the
Four Corners Wednesday then eject into the central plains
Wednesday night and Thursday. ECMWF ensemble average slightly
more bullish on snow amounts compared to the GFS and Canadian
ensembles, showing 1-2" with highest amounts in Colorado, while
the other ensembles showing less than 1" at this time. None of
the models showing much in the way of wind. Another shortwave
could follow for Friday night and Saturday, but models in rather
poor agreement at the present time leading to low confidence in
the details. However, it does look to be another progressive
open wave which typically produce light snow amounts, if any at
all. Temperatures will generally be near normal, with a slight
cool down on Wednesday and Thursday with the system moving
through.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1019 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with cloud cover generally above 7000ft. Winds are
forecast to be light from roughly the northwest through the
night, but may vary a bit in direction. Going into the late
morning and early afternoon hours, winds should pick up a bit
closer to 12 kts and switch to be more from the southeast. We
are watching the potential for fog, snow, and low ceilings
Sunday night, but that currently looks to start after 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 300450
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1050 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Wind Advisory continues through 6 PM this evening for
portions of north central and east central Kansas.
- Dry, but cold tonight into Sunday. Wind chills will be in the single
digits by sunrise Sunday and only reach the 20s by Sunday
afternoon.
- A fast-moving round of snow will impact the area Sunday night through
the day Monday. Generally expecting 1-3 inches of snow to
accumulate across the area.
- Below-normal temperatures continue through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
A mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front have pushed east of
the area this afternoon, allowing for precipitation to end and much
colder air to build in across northeast Kansas. Gusty northwest
winds have taken control with sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and
gusts of 35-45 MPH observed. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
through 6 PM this evening for areas along and southwest of a
Washington to Manhattan to Garnett line. Winds remain breezy
overnight with the main uncertain revolving around cloud cover.
Some guidance keeps low clouds in place with while others have
clearing skies. Clouds continue to stream in from the north, so
think clouds will hold on through at least most of the overnight
period, perhaps even into Sunday morning. It will be cold
regardless of cloud cover with lows Sunday morning in the teens
and wind chills in the single digits! Not much warming will take
place through the day with highs only reaching into the 20s.
A positively-tilted, fast-moving shortwave ejects across the Plains
Sunday night through the day Monday. With cold air in place,
confidence is high in all precipitation being snow with this wave.
Given the progressive nature, precipitation amounts will be on the
lighter side, generally between 0.15-0.25" of liquid. However, SLRs
will be above climatology given the cold airmass in place, likely in
the 13-16:1 range. Even with light QPF amounts, the SLR/QPF
combination will produce a widespread 1-3 inches of snow across
the area. There is still a spread of about 0.1" of QPF between
the 25-75th percentiles of ensembles with the majority (75% of
ENS, GEFS, and GEPS members) falling within the 0.1-0.3" QPF
range. There is a long tail on the high end with about 15
percent of the members showing greater than 0.3" of QPF. There
are also some differences latitudinally in the location of
heaviest snow with a subtle northward shift noted in guidance.
With all of that said, there is high confidence in measurable
snow falling across the entire area, medium confidence in a
swath of 1-3 inches within the forecast area, and low
confidence in any amounts exceeding 3". Could still see a shift
in the track of this system or an increase/decrease in expected
QPF and snow amounts, but this looks to be a stoutly advisory-
level snow event with minor to moderate impacts to travel from
falling and accumulating snow.
Snow comes to an end Monday evening, leaving dry conditions through
at least mid-week. Low-level winds briefly become southerly on
Tuesday before another cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of
cold air for the middle of the week. Frontal passage is favored to
be dry, but will keep temperatures below-normal with lows ranging
from the single digits to the low 20s and highs in the 20s and 30s.
There is a signal for slightly warmer temperatures and low chances
for precipitation by the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Ceilings have settled right around the VFR/MVFR border,
and should stay around this level overnight while gradually
scattering out by sunrise. Northwest winds are still a bit gusty (20-
30 kts at times) towards KTOP and KFOE, and this should remain the
case until close to sunrise. Winds stay around 10 kts during the
day, before becoming lighter and more northeasterly tomorrow evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 300447
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1047 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens
- Cold air continues through Sunday
- A quick moving system will bring light accumulations to parts of
southwest and north central Kansas on Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
19Z upper air analysis shows a rapidly exiting shortwave which is
moving towards the Great Lakes with strong cold air advection on the
western side of the system. 850 mb temps have fallen to -7 to -8
(C) in western Kansas and is as cold as -13 (C) in western Nebraska.
At the surface the 1011 mb low is centered in western Missouri with
a 1027 mb high in eastern Montana which is leading to the strong
pressure gradient and northwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts over
40 mph.
Tonight winds should diminish through the evening and overnight
hours as the surface high slides into northern Kansas by sunrise. A
developing mid level shortwave will introduce some high and mid
level clouds through the night. Despite the little cloud cover the
lighter winds combined with the core of colder air hanging through
western Kansas should allow lows to fall into the lower to mid teens.
Sunday with northeast winds for most of the day (switching to the
southeast near the Colorado border by late in the day), zonal flow
aloft bringing in mid to high level cloud cover, and not much
suggestion of diurnal heating to moderate the polar air
mass...temperatures will struggle to rise through the day. I went
with the colder NBM solution for MaxT and hourly Ts which would put
highs generally in the upper 20s across much of southwest Kansas. By
late Sunday afternoon a developing storm system in the intermountain
west will bring a negative tilt trough into the central plains by
mid Monday morning.
Monday short and medium term models continue to show a band of light
snow developing with a 700 mb fgen axis roughly from Elkhart to
Hays with the strongest lift in the dendritic growth zone closer to
Hays between 12-18Z. Models are still showing some timing
disagreements with the NAM being the slower of the models which
would lag the timeframe of snow more into the afternoon. Given the
open and progressive nature of the shortwave and hints of the trough
going less negative as it moves into Kansas I stuck with the faster
solution for POPs which puts the highest prob (30-40%) from Dodge
City to Hays. The most likely scenario is a band of snow developing
along the intensifying fgen band in these areas with the better
potential of accumulating snow as you move into north central Kansas
as the lift improves. Accumulations could reach around 1 inch near
Hays to Larned (around 50% Probability) with the rest of the area
showing greater odds of under 1 inch of snow (75-100% probability).
Winds aren't expected to intensify so winter weather impacts look to
stay minor at this point for the I-70 corridor and areas around
Ness City to Larned.
After Monday LREF upper air patterns keep us generally in northwest
to zonal flow for the rest of the week with no great opportunities
for precipitation on the horizon. Temperatures should also stay
fairly seasonal as the polar air is trending to stay off to the
northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Winds are expected to lighten and shift significantly from the north
to from the southeast with a weak surface high pressure. Skies will
be primarily scattered with more cloud coverage arriving by the end
of the TAF period. Ceilings are forecast to stay high enough that
VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF
period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...KBJ
