ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 092303
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
503 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably mild temperatures return on Wednesday with another
unseasonably mild day expected on Thursday.
- Another shot of cold air will arrive on Friday, with a
reinforcing surge of cold air over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
A shortwave trough moving over the Upper Mississippi Valley area
this evening will help drive a cold front south over the Central
Plains tonight. This front will usher more seasonable air on
Wednesday although values are still expected to be above
average for mid December with highs topping out in the lower 50s
for most areas. As high pressure at the surface builds south
and east over the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi
Valley area on Thursday, southwest low level flow will return to
the Central Plains. This will allow above average temperatures
to return over the area with highs climbing into the 60s once
again.
A progressive northwest mid/upper flow regime is progged to persist
with another fropa anticipated on Friday. This front will pack a
bigger punch with seasonably cool temperatures on Fri-Sat (40s)
although as the cold air continues to settle over the area this
weekend, values may struggle to rise above freezing in some
areas as we move into Sunday. Dry weather conditions are
expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week
although temperatures are expected to moderate as we move into
Mon-Tue with above average values returning to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Primary aviation concerns remain tied to the passage
of a cold front later this evening into tonight.
Winds will gradually veer around to the northwest later this evening
in the 03-07Z timeframe as the surface boundary tracks from north to
south. LLWS along this feature is also anticipated due to a LLJ that
will prevail through the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday before
dissipating by 12-13Z. Sustained speeds in the 12-15 kt range
are forecast by early/mid morning with gusts up to 20-22 kts.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 092317
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm and breezy this afternoon and evening.
- Cold front this evening/overnight will bring 30-40 MPH gusts,
with isolated 40-50 MPH gusts.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday in the 60s to low 70s
before cooler, albeit normal to slightly below normal,
temperatures Friday through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
In the upper-levels, we'll be southwest of northwesterly flow. This
will allow lower-level systems to pass through region and clip the
CWA over the next few days.
Today, the northwesterly breezy conditions will continue until about
sunset. Late this evening, around 0-3Z, a cold front will be
entering the CWA from the north. Winds will have calmed a bit before
this happens, but once the front passes through, northerly winds
sustained around 15-20 kts and gusts 20-30 kts are expected. Surface
pressure rises look to be around 1-2 mb per hour for 3-6 hours
following the front. There is a 35% chance a few gusts of 40-45 kts
occur tonight behind the front.
Due to a general lack of moisture in the atmosphere, precipitation
is not expected tonight, or throughout the rest of the short term.
There should be enough moisture to lead to scattered to broken
skies. Between the clouds and the stronger winds, the surface will
stay well mixed and insulated. This will keep low temperatures
around 30 in the eastern CWA and mid 20s in the western CWA. Wind
chills will be around 20F Wednesday morning.
Tomorrow morning, an 850 mb high pressure system will be ejecting
off the Rockies to our southwest. This will extend a ridge over the
CWA, leading to weaker winds throughout most of the day Wednesday.
This will also help clear out the sky, allowing temperatures to warm
to around 50. The ridge will also lead to some WAA, which will be
stronger over the western CWA. This should allow temperatures in
eastern Colorado to warm into the low 50s.
Wednesday evening into the night, a weak shortwave trough will push
the ridge out of the area to the east. Once again, moisture is
lacking, so PoPs are very low, but along and north of U.S. 36 could
see some isolated flurries/sprinkles. Depending on the timing of any
precipitation, temperatures could melt out any falling snow. If
rain/sprinkles do occur, isolated patches of black ice my form later
in the night as temperatures fall below freezing. Overall, low
temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing.
Thursday morning, another weak ridge will move in from the
southwest. Mild WAA and clearing skies will allow temperatures to
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. These temperatures and
no additional moisture will push minimum RH values into the upper
teens in eastern Colorado. Northwesterly winds gusting around 20 kts
with the drier RHs will cause a mild concern for fire weather
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
Thursday night, a front is forecast to move through the area either
during the very early morning hours or around sunrise. In most
scenarios, the pressure rises are only around a 2-3 mb in three
hours which is forecast to not lead to much of an increase in the
winds with speeds around 10-20 mph. The bigger concern is the
possibility for some freezing fog and drizzle ahead of and just
behind the front. Some guidance is hinting that the colder
temperatures with the front may allow the air to saturate as the
front isn't forecast to bring much dry air in. Even if the
saturation does occur, temperatures may not lower fast enough for
the freezing aspect to develop. So for now, watching for some fog
and drizzle that could be freezing.
Friday, temperatures are forecast to be cooler compared to Thursday
in the wake of the front with highs in the 40s and 50s. The coldest
air will favor eastern portions of the area as the cold air mass
slides through the Plains. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast as drier
air isn't forecast to sweep in and clear us out.
For the weekend, colder temperatures remain forecast, through how
cold remains a bit unclear. Guidance is fairly unified in an upper
trough digging into the Plains and Ohio River Valley. The issue is
that ensemble guidance is showing a hint that it could dig a bit
further south and west compared to deterministic guidance. If the
trough follows more deterministic guidance, Saturday and Sunday's
temperatures won't be too dissimilar to Friday with highs in the 40s
and 50s and lows 20s and teens. The coldest temperatures are likely
on Sunday in the wake of another potential front. If the trough does
dig more west/south, temperatures could be about 5-15 degrees cooler
than what is currently forecast. Regardless of scenario,
precipitation is unlikely as drier air steadily filters into the
area in the lower levels from the west.
For the start of next week, the initial forecast continues to favor
more mild conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s. Either split
flow or upper ridging is forecast to take hold over the Plains,
leading to the nicer conditions. With little/no change in the
overall air mass and weak forcing over the area, precipitation
remains unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 413 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Clouds generally above 10000ft are forecast to move over
the area during the period. Closer to the surface, winds are
forecast to increase as a cold front sweeps through the area
from the northwest. It should pass through the terminal within
the first 2-3 hours, increasing speeds to around 20 kts and
shifting winds to out of the northwest. The main concern is that
low level wind shear should develop with wind around 300ft
forecast to increase to 40-50 kts. A smaller concern is that
there is a less than 10% chance that 40 kts or higher wind gusts
may briefly occur if they can mix down with the frontal passage.
After 12Z, the low level wind shear should end with winds near
the surface lowering to around 10 kts and slowly shifting to out
of the southwest.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 092019
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Strong northwest winds develop behind a cold front tonight. Gusts
to near 45 mph are possible in far northeast KS.
-Temperatures fluctuate from above normal to below normal and back
again through the end of the week.
-The weekend looks much colder, but snow stays north of the
area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Today, a clipper system is moving across the northern high plains
while northwest flow persists aloft. Temperatures have warmed well
into the 50s and low 60s across the area this afternoon with breezy
southwest winds and WAA. Tonight, a cold front associated with the
low to our north will quickly work through northeast KS. Northwest
winds behind the boundary will increase to near wind advisory
criteria (gusts of 40 to 45 mph), especially in far northeast KS.
There has not been great agreement between HREF, LREF and NBM in
meeting/exceeding criteria. HREF is the more confident solution in
exceeding 45 mph gusts, and have noticed that the 90th percentile of
NBM has increased slightly. But for now, have held off issuing an
advisory with confidence not quiet high enough. Later shifts will re-
evaluate and may need to consider at least adding far northeast KS
to the advisory issued by neighboring offices. A few of the high
resolution models also show light QPF near the front this
evening and tonight. However, forecast soundings show a 5kft
layer of dry air beneath the cloud deck, so any precip is likely
to evaporate before reaching the ground.
Surface high pressure builds in tomorrow so temperatures will
be closer to normal in the mid 40s for highs. Gusty winds will
decrease during the afternoon as the low moves further east,
away from the region. The forecast remains dry through the rest
of the workweek with another in a series of clipper systems
staying north and east of the CWA on Thursday. Southerly winds
return on Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm back into the
mid 50s and low 60s. The next cold front moves through with that
second clipper system Thursday night. High pressure will
control our conditions through the weekend, keeping temps cooler
than average, especially by Sunday when a reinforcing round of
cold weather moves in. Lows Sunday morning could be in the
single digits with highs Sunday afternoon only in the 20s.
Another batch of snow again stays north of the area this
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Wind is the main aviation hazard this period. Breezy southwest
winds will occur this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is
expected to shift winds to the northwest tonight. A period of
LLWS is expected along and behind the boundary as a 50 kt LLJ
moves overhead. Surface winds will then increase again early
Wednesday with gusts to 30 kts possible through Wednesday
morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 092313
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Tranquil/dry conditions continue through end of week.
- After a brief break Wednesday, unseasonably warm temperatures
return Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of weak ridging aloft located across
the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough
of low pressure is anchored near and along the Colorado/Kansas
line.
Tranquil conditions will continue early in the period as the SREF
shows a northwesterly aloft persisting through the end of the week.
An upper level shortwave trough digging southeast through the Upper
Midwest will send an attendant cold front southward through western
Kansas late this evening/overnight, allowing colder/much drier air
to surge through the region and reinforcing an already fairly dry
air mass throughout western Kansas. This will help keep any precip
chances out of the forecast through the end of the week, especially
as westerly downsloping re-establishes itself late Wednesday once
surface high pressure building in across eastern Colorado early
in the day begins to drop southeast into the Texas Panhandle.
Temperatures above the seasonal average (around 20F) are likely
tonight despite colder air spreading southward into western Kansas
in wake of a cold frontal passage late this evening. The latest HREF
indicates a 60-80% probability of temperatures dropping below 35F in
west central/extreme southwest Kansas to the same probability of
temperatures slipping below 40F in south central Kansas. Considering
expected increased cloud cover, look for lows generally down into
the 30s(F) for much of the area with near 40F in south central Kansas.
The colder air mass will be slow to erode Wednesday as westerly
downsloping develops later in the afternoon with surface high pressure
in eastern Colorado moving southeast into the Texas Panhandle, only
pushing H85 temperatures up near 0C in central Kansas to near 5C
near the Colorado line. Afternoon highs are expected to struggle to
climb out of the 40s(F) across central Kansas and west central Kansas
where the HREF paints less than a 30% probability of temperatures
exceeding 50F to the lower/mid 50s(F) farther south where there
is less than a 20% probability of temperatures reaching above 55F.
Unseasonably warm temperatures bounce back Thursday as west-
southwesterly downsloping returns across western Kansas behind an
advancing surface trough axis, drawing in much warmer air with H85
temperatures pushing 10C in central Kansas to near 15C in extreme
southwest Kansas. Afternoon highs well into the 60s(F) are likely
with the lower 70s(F) not out of the question in some locations
farther west.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period through early
Wednesday evening. Winds will increase tonight with the passage
of a cold front that is expected to move southward across the
area. Expect a wind shift from a northerly direction as the
front passes through, generally around 15-20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots expected. Winds will diminish slightly into
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Bennett
