ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 211146
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
A stable post-frontal scenario will be in place across the forecast
area today with seasonably cool highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s. Low ceilings will linger through the early morning hours
across far southeast KS before mixing out toward mid-morning. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area across
the High Plains in a favorable moist upslope regime this
afternoon and evening. This activity will drift eastward arriving
across central KS and portions of south Central KS after midnight
and into the morning hours on Wed as we remain within a broad area
of mid-level WAA/300-305K isentropic upglide. High pops were
maintained into the morning hours on Wed but mid-lvl lapse
rates/mucape do not support strong or severe storms. With
widespread clouds and precipitation, temperatures will remain well
below normal with some locations struggling to climb into the
70s.
Better chances for deep moist convection should arrive on Wed night
into Thursday as a LLJ noses into central KS with continued mid-
level WAA/isentropic ascent across the area. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated late Wed night into early Thursday. We
may see a break during the day on Thursday which will allow
temperatures to return to more seasonable values in the mid/upper
80s for most locations. Another round of storms will be possible
Thursday night as a vigorous mid/upper trough moves across the
Northern Plains and drives a cold front south across the area. This
front could provide a focus for a few strong or severe storms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Maintained some low pops on Fri as the previously mentioned
diffuse frontal boundary may provide a focus for storms but the
primary theme will be increasing heights/thickness supporting
rising temperatures and mostly dry weather into the weekend and
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
MVFR cigs ~2,000ft should clear KCNU 13-15Z with the terminal in
VFR status thereafter. There are no concerns for the remainder of
the KICT jurisdiction until late tonight when a few TSRA venture
into KGBD & KRSL 06-09Z. The 18Z & 22/00Z editions will certainly
provide details on arrival times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 83 66 77 64 / 0 60 60 60
Hutchinson 81 65 75 64 / 0 60 60 70
Newton 81 64 74 62 / 0 60 60 70
ElDorado 81 64 75 63 / 0 60 60 60
Winfield-KWLD 84 66 78 64 / 0 60 60 60
Russell 79 62 72 62 / 0 60 60 60
Great Bend 79 63 72 63 / 0 60 70 60
Salina 80 64 75 63 / 0 60 50 70
McPherson 80 64 74 63 / 0 60 60 70
Coffeyville 82 66 80 64 / 0 0 30 40
Chanute 81 64 78 63 / 0 0 30 40
Iola 81 64 77 63 / 0 10 20 40
Parsons-KPPF 82 65 79 64 / 0 0 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 210954
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
354 AM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Through Noon: Shallow convection that developed in southeast WY
shortly after midnight appears to be driven by mid-level warm
advection and low-level upslope flow, both of which will remain
anchored close to the Rockies through 18Z. A dry/stable
environment remains in place downstream of the aforementioned
showers in northeast CO, extreme northwest KS and extreme
southwest NE this morning. With the above in mind, expect upstream
showers to weaken/dissipate as they progress E/ESE of I-76 into
an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.
This Afternoon-Tonight: ESE/SE low-level flow will develop over
the High Plains today as a SFC-H85 ridge over the Central/Northern
Plains shifts ever-so-slightly eastward. Low-level moisture
advection beneath the elevated mixed layer, diurnal heating, and
weak orographic ascent /upslope flow/ will aid in the development
of scattered convection along the CO Front Range this afternoon,
with isold storms progressing east (via westerly steering flow)
toward the KS border early this evening. A brief/isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out south of US 40 and west of US 83
in the 7-11 PM time frame -- though the severe weather potential
may ultimately be confined to portions of southeast CO and extreme
southwest KS where shear profiles and forcing may be favorably
augmented by a developing lee cyclone this evening. Expect
convection to increase in coverage over western KS late this
evening/tonight as low-level warm advection strengthens on the
eastern periphery of the aforementioned lee cyclone. Isolated
flash flooding will be possible in association with slow/
persistent convection in western KS overnight (03-12Z Wed).
Wednesday-Wednesday night: With relatively little change in the
synoptic pattern and increasing low-level moisture, episodic
convection is likely Wed-Wed night, primarily south of I-70. Isold
flash flooding will remain possible.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018
A longwave trough over the northern Rockies Thursday will progress
eastward promoting relatively strong westerly/southwesterly upper-
level winds over the Central High Plains. In addition to shear,
there will be enough dynamic forcing for ascent to keep a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday evening for much of
the forecast area. Dry northwesterly surface winds Friday on the
backside of the upper-level trough will keep any precipitation out
of the forecast until Saturday evening. Despite the dry conditions
with relative humidity below 25% in some places, relatively weak
surface winds with gusts topping out around 10-15 mph will keep fire
weather from being a concern for Friday.
A persistent upper-level ridge centered over Texas will slowly
broaden and drift eastward towards the southeast United States by
Saturday. A shortwave trough rounding this ridge may provide enough
support for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
evening despite west-southwesterly upper-level flow. As the ridge
continues to drift eastward into early next week, the upper-level
winds will become more southwesterly and the chance for
precipitation will decrease. Monday and Tuesday of next week will
likely be dry and partly cloudy for much of the Tri-State Region.
High temperatures will start out Thursday in the mid 80s and then
hold in the low 90s from Friday through Tuesday. Lows will start
out in the low 60s on Thursday and will slowly warm up to the mid
to upper 60s by Sunday for most of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Aside from a period of MVFR visbys associated with fog/haze at
McCook this morning, VFR conditions will rule through 00Z.
Thunderstorms are expected to affect the GLD terminal this
evening into tonight (03-12Z Wed), though it is unclear whether or
not the MCK terminal will be affected. Expect light/variable winds
to become E/ESE at 10-15 knots at the GLD terminal this afternoon
(persisting through tonight). Winds may largely remain
light/variable at the MCK terminal, becoming E at 5-10 knots
tonight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Wednesday could see very unseasonably cool temperatures during the
day across the Tri-State Region. To put Wednesday's potentially
record breaking cool high temperatures into perspective, below is
a comparison of some weather stations in the region, their lowest
recorded high temperature for Wednesday, August 22nd, and their
forecasted high temperatures at this time. The year of the record
set is in the parentheses next to the current record value. The
beginning of the period of record for each station is listed in
parentheses next to the station name, with each period of record
lasting through the present.
N.B.: These forecast highs have been recently updated as of
Tuesday morning to be even a tad cooler and now more stations are
currently expected to reach their minimum high temperatures for
August 22nd.
Station..............Lowest High for 8/22.....Forecast High 8/22/18
Goodland, KS (1895).............66 (1952).................70
McCook, NE (1896)...............68 (1951).................70
McCook, NE Airport (1967).......71 (1970).................70*
Burlington, CO (1903)...........66 (1989).................70
Burlington, CO Airport (1997)...79 (2017).................70*
Colby, KS 1SW (1957)............74 (1965).................69*
Hill City, KS (1907)............69 (1965).................71
Yuma, CO (1900).................70 (1966).................70*
Oberlin, KS (1913)..............69 (1965).................70
Sharon Springs, KS (1893).......75 (1951).................72*
Oakley, KS 4W (1920)............68 (1965).................69
Gove, KS 4W (1893)..............71 (1923).................70*
Kit Carson, CO (1939)...........72 (1951).................75
Cheyenne Wells, CO (1897).......69 (1951).................73
Wray, CO (1893).................68 (1896).................70
*These values would set or tie records if they verify Wednesday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...PATTON
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 211147
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Early this morning, upper low from previous days has continued to
lift northeast of the area into the Great Lakes region and leave
northwest flow over the central Plains in its wake. Over the
western CONUS, a couple circulations appear evident within an upper
lobe of energy digging over the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies. A broader ridge appears to be in place over the central
Rockies with monsoonal moisture over the Desert Southwest and some
higher cloud spill over into the panhandle of Nebraska.
While still under the influence of a surface pressure gradient
keeping winds brisk enough over much of the area, don't expect fog
to be a widespread concern and probably most areas shouldn't see
visibilities dip much below 7SM. Therefore, have not gone with
mention of fog at this time. However, if winds can decouple at
least partially in areas that have seen clearing over north central
into portions of northeast KS, then it is possible patchy fog may
need to be added to the current forecast probably through an hour or
so after sunrise. Would expect mixing to ensue quickly as any final
areas of stratus move east of the area and drier air continues to
work into the region with a surface ridge building in from the
north. Winds should remain light out of the north/northeast for
much of the day. Temps will be warmer overall today with mostly
clear skies in place. Highs top around 80 over east central areas
and slightly cooler over northern areas due to the northerly breeze.
Overnight lows should dip into low 60s and upper 50s closer to the
KS/NE border. Right now any precip chances appear limited and have
only gone with some slight chances over central and north central
areas. Confidence in shower development is currently low and
confidence in thunderstorm development is lower yet with limited
instability. Overall forcing appears weak, so overall chances for
precip may continue to be reduced during this time or pushed back in
subsequent forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Wednesday, zonal mid-level flow across the central Rockies will
lead to a lee surface trough deepening across the southern and
central high plains on Wednesday. As deeper moisture is advected
northwest across western KS, isentropic lift east of the deeper
moisture return will result in an area of elevated showers
developing across portions of southwest and central KS. Some of
these elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms may move east-
southeast across the southwest counties of the CWA on Wednesday.
However, the stronger isentropic lift will remain west of the CWA,
so the CWA may stay dry for much of the day. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s with increasing cloud cover through the day.
Wednesday night through Thursday night, the deeper moisture will
advect northward across central and eastern KS. The resulting
isentropic lift will cause numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop across central KS which will move east across the CWA
through the night. A minor perturbation embedded with in the zonal
flow will provide additional ascent and may keep shower and
thunderstorms chances going through the morning hours of Thursday.
A more amplified upper level trough will dig east-southeast across
the central plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
A surface cold front will push southeast across western KS and the
resulting surface convergence combined with the ascent ahead of the
H5 trough will cause scattered thunderstorms to develop along the
front. These storms may congeal into a line of storms as they move
east into the western counties of the CWA Thursday evening. I
cannot rule out strong to severe storms if the environment is able
to destabilize ahead of the line of thunderstorms Thursday evening.
The better chance for strong to severe storms may occur across north
central KS Thursday evening, since both the NAM and GFS forecast
MLCAPES of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and 0-6 KM shear of 30 to 40 KTS across
west central KS during the late afternoon hours of Thursday. The
storms may weaken as they move east across the remainder of the CWA
through the overnight hours.
Friday, a weak cold front will under go frontolysis across northeast
KS and northern MO as the H5 trough moves east across the upper
and mid MS river valley into the Great Lakes States. Southwest
surface winds will help to warm highs into the lower 90s.
Saturday through Tuesday, A broad upper level ridge will amplify
across the lower and mid MS River Valley. South-southwest surface
winds will help to warm highs into the mid 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
MVFR CIGS have been slow to clear the KTOP/KFOE terminals much of
the night. But, recent trends continue to show improvement and
should stay that way with only some SCT coverage through the day.
Some areas of lower VIS have been seen near the KMHK terminal and
have some patchy fog mainly north of the terminals in the
forecast. Don't expect reduced MVFR VIS at KMHK to be long lasting
and shouldn't last much past 13Z. Chances for showers near the
end of the forecast period remain southwest of the KMHK terminal
and remain too small for inclusion.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 211000
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Impressive radiational cooling in progress as of midnight, with
NW zones already well down into the 50s. Have already trimmed
Tuesday morning's min temps another degree or two, with some
upper 40s and record lows possible at sunrise.
Sunshine will reign for the first half of Tuesday, followed by a
gradual increase in mid layer clouds through the afternoon. Light
and variable winds at sunrise will trend E/SE through the
afternoon, and increase a bit to the 10-20 mph range by late
afternoon. Strongest SE winds this afternoon/evening (15-25 mph)
will be focused across the SW zones, with a markedly stronger
pressure gradient. Two distinctly different air masses will be
present in the CWA this afternoon, with the I-70 corrdor (Trego,
Ellis counties) holding in the mid 70s, while Morton county nears
90. In between, most locations will be well below normal again
today, with max temps in the 78-83 range.
All zones will remain dry today through at least 5 pm, and
possibly as late as 7 pm. 00z NAM forecasts sizeable CAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg to remain relegated to mostly SE Colorado, NE New
Mexico, and the NW TX/OK panhandles. This is where 00z NAM/HRRR
develop convection early Tuesday evening, and where any
appreciable threat of severe hail/wind should remain. After 7 pm,
and especially toward midnight tonight, showers and some embedded
thunder will spread into SW KS. Dynamic lift will be substantial,
and moist easterly upslope wind components will help out with
moisture and lift. As such, likely pops are still justified
tonight. However, with very little CAPE/instability, kept thunder
mention in the grids isolated tonight (and that still may be
overdone). Expecting gentle scattered rain showers tonight into
Wednesday morning, with QPF grids averaging 0.25-0.50 inch for
most zones.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
Wednesday...Cloudy, wet and unseasonably cool. 1025 mb surface
high over Nebraska at sunrise Wednesday wedges into Kansas through
the day, ensuring upslope flow and thick cloud cover will persist
most if not all of the daylight hours. This is especially true
along and north of US 50; some seepage of the warmer airmass is
likely into the counties bordering Oklahoma/Colorado during the
afternoon. For the northern and eastern zones, a highly unusual
day is expected for August, with many locations spending most of
the day in the 60s with little if any sun. Forecasted afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s, but certainly many places will hold
in the 60s where showers and clouds can block insolation
completely. For the record, the record low max temperature record
at Dodge City for August 22 is 66 set in 1945. Moist upslope and
frontogenetic forcing warrant keeping scattered to likely pops in
the grids all day. It appears any instability will be limited to
the zones SW of Dodge City, where NAM forecasts some CAPE
Wednesday afternoon. With highs in the lower 80s near the Oklahoma
border, some stronger storms are possible in these zones late
Wednesday. Otherwise, more gentle rain showers expected.
Additional showers and embedded thunder are expected Wednesday
night into early Thursday, as warm air advection ensues over the
frontal boundary and the front begins to lift out as a warm front.
Thursday...Dramatically warmer and dry. A distinct change in
airmass will bring SWly downslope winds back to SW KS, allowing
for much warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
The warming trend doesn't stop there. A long stretch of seasonably
hot and dry weather is on tap Friday through Monday, with
afternoon temperatures well into the 90s, with southern zones
flirting with 100. Synoptic pattern appears stagnant for several
days, with ECMWF showing the upper ridge to our SE, and warm dry
quiet SW flow aloft over Kansas. All grids are dry for all zones
Friday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018
VFR will continue through roughly 06z Wed, after which time flight
categories are expected to degrade to IFR/MVFR in stratus, BR and
rain showers. VFR/SKC and light/variable winds this morning,
followed by increasing mid layer clouds this afternoon. Strongest
winds this afternoon will be found at LBL, where E/SE winds will
gust in the 20-23 kt range. Easterly wind components will prevail
through this TAF cycle. Scattered convection is forecast to
develop over SE Colorado through 00z Wed. From 00-12z Wed,
convection will spread east across SW KS in a weakened state.
Expect cigs to lower to MVFR and possibly IFR by 12z Wed, with
reduced vis in BR/-RA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 61 72 63 / 10 70 60 50
GCK 80 60 74 63 / 10 70 50 50
EHA 89 61 84 64 / 20 70 50 40
LBL 87 62 83 65 / 10 80 60 50
HYS 76 61 71 62 / 10 60 70 60
P28 84 65 78 65 / 0 50 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
