ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 011133
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
533 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect early this morning
through tonight for areas along and north of Highway 54.
- Snowfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely in areas of central
KS today with 1-2 inches possible farther south in parts of
south-central and southeast KS.
- Closer to near normal temperatures on Tuesday before well
below normal temperatures return on Wed and Thurs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough digging and
moving towards the Central Rockies. At the surface, expansive high
pressure sits over most of the Midwest, stretching into eastern
Kansas. Snow has begun falling in northern KS and is forecast to
become more widespread as we move towards sunrise. The
aforementioned trough will move across the Central and Southern
Plains today, increasing snowfall chances in our area. Lift will
increase early this morning in central KS from the upper-level
trough coupled with the left exit region of the upper jet. This
increased lift generally falls in the DGZ, leading to efficient
snowfall rates. Additionally, these features combined with increased
low-level WAA could lead to a heavier band of snow developing in
central KS. The upper trough is progged to move east/southeast over
our area by this afternoon. This will shift snow chances south and
east into south-central KS by late morning and into southeast KS by
the early afternoon. General snowfall amounts will likely be in the
0.5 to 2" range across south-central and southeast KS, while areas
in central KS will have amounts up to 2-4". Snowfall chances will
diminish from west to east this afternoon as the upper trough moves
into the Mississippi Valley by tonight. Given surface winds will be
between 5-10 mph, blowing snow will be less of a concern, but
reduced visibility is likely especially in the heavier snow band.
HREF is showing probabilities between 70-80% of less than a mile
visibility and 30-50% of less than a half mile visibility due
to snowfall rates. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for early this morning through tonight for areas along and north
of Highway 54. High temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing with most of the area seeing highs in the upper 20s.
Tuesday and beyond... The next upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the Northern Intermountain/Northern Rockies on Tuesday then
move into the southwestern CONUS on Wednesday. Recent runs of the
GFS and ECMWF seem to have this trough lifting and moving towards
the Central Rockies Thursday night. Low chances (around 20%) remain
for a wintry mix on Thursday night into Friday, though confidence is
low at this time. Trends will continue to monitored, stay tuned!
Outside of precipitation, closer to near normal temperatures are
likely on Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s,
though this could be too warm in areas that accumulate more
snowfall. Well below normal temperatures will return on Wednesday as
another cold front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday
afternoon. This will drop highs to around freezing on Thursday,
which is 15-20 degrees below normal. Friday and Saturday will return
to near normal temps before another cold front comes through on
Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Periods of moderate to heavy snow will spread east across
central Kansas this morning with visibilities and cigs dropping
into the IFR category. Lighter snow and cigs in MVFR category
are expected over southern Kansas for the mid morning to early
afternoon hours. Low clouds will begin to scour out from west to
east for this afternoon into the evening hours across the region.
VFR conditions will prevail during the night time hours as the
upper level system quickly races east of Kansas.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>071-082-083.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 011106
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow is falling across the Tri-State area early this morning.
Most locations will receive less than 2 inches, but there is
a 20% chance a snowband will form and up to 5 inches of snow
will accumulate.
- Snow will exit the area to the east today, being completely
out of the area by the early afternoon. Northwesterly gusts of
20-25 MPH could blow the freshly fallen snow during the day.
- Wind chills this morning will be around 0F and 5F Tuesday
morning.
- Next chance of precipitation is Wednesday, mainly in eastern
Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
This morning, we have a trough moving over the region, which is
producing snow and cold temperatures. The trough axis will lead
to a cold front passing through the CWA later this morning,
which will dry out the column and end any remaining
precipitation. This cold front will enter the northwestern CWA
around 16Z this morning and progress fairly quickly to the
southeast. By 21Z, it will be through the area. Precipitation
will be ending about 1-3 hours ahead of the FROPA, so by 18-20Z,
precipitation will have fully ended in the CWA.
We are still forecasting trace to 3 inches of snow to fall with
the highest snowfall amounts expected to be in the southeastern
CWA. Most of the CWA will receive less than 2 inch of snow.
There is still a 10-20% chance a band of snow could lead to 2-5
inches of snow. If this does occur, it would likely be around
Thomas, Sheridan, or Gove counties, but may reach Hill City. We
will see occasional gusts of 20 kts during the snow, which could
lead to some brief patches of less than 1 mile visibility, but
generally visibilities will range from 1-6 miles during the
snow. Travel impacts will should be minimal, but if the snowband
does occur, travel will become hazardous.
Temperatures this morning are still forecast to be in the low to mid
teens, with some northwestern locations potentially seeing upper
single digits. Thankfully, ahead of the front, winds will weaken to
generally under 10 kts during the coldest parts of the morning. This
will keep wind chills around 0, so bundle up as you're heading out
this morning!
Today, after the front moves through, northwesterly winds will pick
up and we will see gusts around the 20-23 kts range. We will see the
sky clear out and temperatures will warm into the 30s for most of
the CWA. There is a 15-25% chance these winds will start blowing
the freshly fallen snow. With such light accumulations,
widespread impacts to visibility are not anticipated. The
eastern CWA will remain cooler due to the clouds lingering later
into the day. Highs in along and east of a line from McCook, NE
to Gove, KS will likely not climb above freezing.
Overnight tonight, temperatures will cool into the teens with the
eastern CWA still remaining the coolest, dropping to around 10F.
There is a 10% chance a very weak shortwave comes off the Northern
Rockies around 9-15Z tomorrow morning, which would lead to some
flurries or just virga. The lower 100-200 mb look to be fairly dry
tomorrow, so virga is favored. Wind chills Tuesday morning are
forecast to be marginally warmer than Monday's, only dropping into
the mid single digits.
Tuesday, westerly flow aloft is favored and a low-level ridge
passing over in the morning will give us some WAA from the south.
This will get temperatures into the 40s, maybe even low 50s, during
the day Tuesday.
Late Tuesday afternoon, an 850 mb low is forecast to eject off the
Rockies and bring another cold front and precipitation chance to the
CWA. Lows Tuesday night will remain fairly warm, due to the
additional moisture content, likely staying in the 20s.
Precipitation looks to start creeping into the northwestern portion
of the area around 6-12Z Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
The central plains will be under a broad northwest to zonal
flow through the long term period, between an upper low over
eastern Canada and a ridge off the west coast of California. A
couple of embedded weak waves will bring low chances of light
precipitation to the area. The first moves through Colorado
Tuesday night and Wednesday, which is where the best chances for
accumulating snow will reside. Ensembles continue to show light
snow amounts, generally less than 1", though the ECMWF is
slightly higher, showing up to 2" in Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties. Winds have increased slightly, models now showing
gusts up to 25 mph accompanying the snow, so there may be some
minor blowing and drifting if snow does accumulate. A dry period
will follow for Thursday and Friday. A couple of weak waves
over the weekend may result in a few sprinkles and/or flurries,
but do not appear impactful at this time. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal on Wednesday with the clouds and
precipitation, then gradually warm to near or slightly above
normal Thursday through Saturday, before cooling off again to
slightly below normal on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025
Snow is still impacting both KGLD and KMCK, but will be letting
up at KMCK fairly soon. Through the rest of the event, MVFR or
better conditions will dominate for KMCK, but briefly IFR
visibilities are still possible. For KGLD, IFR visibilities are
still going to be moderately common as heavier waves of
precipitation move over the airport, but only a few more waves
are possible. Conditions should improve to MVFR, limited by
ceilings, by 14Z and back to full VFR by 16Z. Keep eye out for
northwesterly gusts today behind a weak cold front.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 011131
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-A batch of snow moves through today, bringing between 1.0" and 4.0"
of total accumulation.
-Snow ends from west to east this afternoon, followed by very cold
temperatures in the single digits and teens tonight.
-Dry weather is expected through midweek with another bitter
cold air mass arriving on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
There is not much change to the previous forecast for snowfall
today, except for a slightly later onset across far eastern KS this
morning. An initial northward moving band of snow was observed very
early this morning, around 8Z, over north-central portions of KS,
where a quick inch could accumulate. Elsewhere, forecast soundings
were showing a 2kft layer of dry air centered around 850mb, and
radar trends were showing the main batch of snow developing in
western KS, just ahead of the main trough axis. Snow should quickly
saturate that dry layer as it moves into central KS by 10-12Z,
spreading eastward through the morning hours. Forecast soundings are
still showing several hours of ascent within a deep DGZ layer, and
models hint at possible frontogenetical banding around I-70 through
midday. HREF, NBM and LREF all still show average QPF ranging from
0.10" to 0.20", and with forecast SLR's generally around 16:1, total
snowfall between about 1.0" and 4.0" inches remains most likely to
occur. The higher side of that is expected near and north of I-70
where 2.0" to 4.0" is expected, while a general 1.0" to 2.0" is
anticipated south of I-70. Radar trends will be monitored through
the day for any bands that may allow for isolated higher totals.
Have maintained the Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area
until 6 PM, although snow should end from west to east early this
afternoon, possibly allowing some zones to be canceled from the
advisory early. Impacts from this system include slick roadways,
sidewalks and driveways, and very chilly temperatures in the 20s.
Luckily, winds will be light through the day and wind chill will not
be much of a factor.
Bitter cold temperatures are expected tonight due to snowpack and
high pressure overhead. Lows could drop to the single digits in far
northern KS, and to the teens everywhere else. South winds return on
Tuesday, allowing temperatures to recover into the mid 30s and
possibly the low 40s in central KS. A cold front will move through
the area early Wednesday, but should come through dry. A reinforcing
shot of cold air follows the front, making Thursday one of the
coldest days of week despite sunny skies. NBM has low POPs on Friday
in east-central KS as another mid-level trough moves over the area.
However, confidence is currently low on precipitation occurring late
this week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Accumulating snowfall is expected today and light snow has
already started at airports early this morning. Snow will
continue to increase in coverage and intensity near sites into
mid-morning. CIGS and visibilities will most likely be IFR with
snow, but could vary as snow band intensity varies through the
day. Snow will end from west to east this afternoon, and low
stratus will eventually scatter late this evening or early
tonight.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 011040
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
440 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- First accumulating snow of the season for parts of southwest
Kansas on Monday
- Total accumulations will range from around a half inch to as
high as 3 inches
- Winter weather impacts should be minor however the timing of
the snow will likely coincide with the morning work/school commute
so precautions are advised
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Upper-level RAP mesoanalysis depicts a deep, positively tilted
trough entering into Colorado from Utah. A low-level low pressure
system is co-located and situated in central Colorado. CAMs and
ensembles continue to track this system into Kansas bringing snow to
the northeast half of the CWA. With this winter storm system, a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon CST Monday. It
consists of Ford county and to the east and the north.
As the system continues to move closer snow is forecast for central
Kansas. Very light snow has already developed in the northern
counties. The more substantial snow amounts are expected to develop
around 3-4 AM CST. The heaviest amounts are expected in and around
Ellis county. Localized amounts continue to be variable with it
depending on where bands situated along a northeast-southwest axis.
Ensembles have a line of 700 mb frontogenesis moving in from Garden
City to Hays. Garden City may be the farthest southwest that
measurable snow reaches with the Hays area holding the best odds to
receive the heaviest snowfall amounts. Again, this assumes the band
develops as advertised and arrives in the area during peak snowfall
rates at around 0.5" per hour. With the progressive nature of the
trough, the system will move rapidly and only place the heaviest
snowfall rates in the CWA for around 6 hours from the 4 AM - 10 AM
CST. Winds are primarily expected to be light and variable, but
visibilities may still drop in areas of the heaviest snowfall.
Travel precautions are advised with snow, ice, or dropped
visibilities. Besides travel impacts, this will be a pretty benign
and generic winter storm system. The ensembles have the SW portion of
the Advisory receiving up to 0.5 inches of snow. Amounts increase
northeastward with Hays forecast around 2 inches. Ensembles have
around a 25-40% chance to exceed 2 inches around Hays. 3 inches is
the upper bound with the probability of exceedance being <10%. Again
localized areas may receive much more or much less snow and
accumulations may vary significantly over only a few miles. Means
remain below an inch except in the northeastern counties.
After the snow and cloud cover clears, temperatures are expected to
reach and pass freezing. Most snow will melt by the end of the day
except in areas of heaviest snowfall. Beyond that, ensembles are
very dry through the rest of the forecast period. Highs will warm up
farther into Tuesday with highs around 50 degrees. This will surely
melt any remaining snow from Monday. Highs the rest of the week will
be in the 40-50s. No other very impactful weather is expected for
most of the area through the week with ensembles showing zonal flow
aloft. Mild winds and seasonal temperatures will combine with dry
weather for a quiet week. Wednesday night is the only opportunity
to disrupt the tranquility as a weak system glances the far western
counties. Ensembles have around a 10% chance for precipitation in
far west Kansas. Even if this occurs accumulations are expected to
be minimal. More concrete details will evolve with time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
As the winter system continues to move eastward, snow bands
have developed across western Kansas. Snow is currently falling
at HYS with a chance to fall at GCK and DDC later in the
morning. Because the snow may come in sporadic bands, PROB30 was
used at DDC and GCK. These bands are also bringing low
ceilings, lowered visibilities, and lowered flight conditions.
The snow will stop around 16Z and the sky cover receding later
around 21Z. Winds will be primarily light and variable through
the period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
