ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 060004
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
604 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures forecast for Saturday followed by
much colder temperatures on Sunday.
- Seasonably warm temperatures returning early next week with
highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday.
- Dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend
and the upcoming work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave moving
into the Central Rockies with upper ridging over the western CONUS.
At the surface, troughing extends from Minnesota through the Central
Plains into Texas.
Tonight, skies will clear briefly as surface ridging moves into the
area. This will lead to radiational cooling along with weak winds
into Saturday morning, allowing fog to develop in southeast KS with
some areas possible in south-central KS. A surface low will move
into western Nebraska by late Saturday morning, increasing winds in
our area Saturday afternoon as the low moves southeast. This will
mainly impact central KS with sustained winds between 15-20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on
Saturday as low-level WAA brings highs into the lower 50s. Any
precipitation chances with this system will stay well north and
northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push
southeast through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into northeast Kansas
by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will advect some
moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, its possible for
some low clouds and/or fog to develop late Saturday night. This
window would be brief before the surface low pushes a cold
front through our area, bringing colder and drier air by Sunday
morning. Northerly winds will be breezy on Sunday morning,
diminishing into the afternoon as the tighter pressure gradient
moves east/southeast from our area. High temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday.
Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in
our area through mid-week as upper-level ridging sits over the
western CONUS. Confidence remains high that dry conditions will
continue through the upcoming work week. A warming trend will start
on Monday as close to normal temperatures return with highs in the
40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures are
forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return of above normal surface
temperatures. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s in
southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and south-central KS on
Tuesday, which is about 10-15 degrees above normal. Given model
discrepancy after Tuesday, uncertainty increases on
temperatures. The ECMWF continues to trend notably cooler than
the GFS especially for Wednesday but these trends will be
monitored as we move closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Light and variable winds are expected overnight and into early
Saturday morning. Winds are expected to become southerly between
09-15Z and then increase with gusts between 20-25 knots between
16-19Z. Winds will diminish just beyond the forecast period.
After about 10Z, fog/mist looks likely to develop across
southeast Kansas, mainly impacting CNU. Low ceilings and reduced
visibility will lead to IFR conditions through about 15Z. Some
lower clouds and mist could work it's way far enough west to
bring some impacts to ICT, but guidance continues to keep the
greatest impacts east of I-135.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 060020
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.
- A 20% chance of a rain/snow mix Saturday morning. Little to
no accumulation is currently forecast.
- Similar weather pattern continues next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Great Lakes region
and a ridge over the West Coast. Northwest flow was present between
the two features. Within the flow a short wave trough was
progressing southward over the High Plains. This shallow trough has
led to sprinkles occurring over Northeast CO.
For the rest of today the sprinkles may continue over the northwest
part of the forecast area as the upper level short wave trough
continues to move southward. The sprinkles will end this afternoon
as the trough shifts more south of the forecast area and subsidence
moves in. Meanwhile the breezy winds will become light as
temperatures cool with the setting sun later this afternoon.
Tonight winds will be light and variable as a surface high pressure
moves through. Before sunrise winds will become from the southwest
behind the exiting high pressure.
Saturday another subtle upper level short wave trough will move
through over the forecast area, with a surface trough moving through
at the surface. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the trough.
Low level winds will be rather strong behind the trough. Most of
the day there will be an inversion present over atleast the east
half or so of the forecast area. This will prevent the stronger
winds from reaching the ground until after 3 PM local time or so
when the inversion erodes; this may result in a hour or two of the
strongest winds for the day before winds decline. The strongest
winds look to be over East Central CO where the inversion will erode
away the soonest; late morning.
Looking at wind gust potential, the maximum speed is around 65 MPH
for East Central CO. The maximum speed declines to under 50 MPH
moving east of the CO/KS border. However, have less than 10%
confidence these winds will occur. The most likely speeds seem to be
in the 45-50 MPH range for East Central CO. Elsewhere to the east
the winds of similar magnitude are higher about the ground. This
would require the winds to mix deeper to reach similar speeds. As
such confidence is 20% or less for the 50 MPH gusts to extend into
KS and Nebraska beyond Highway 27.
Shifting to precipitation chances, cloud bases should be lower than
today, around 4k ft. AGL. There will be some isentropic lift and
frontogenesis with the trough passage over the northern part of the
forecast are in the morning. Model consensus keeps any precipitation
chances north of the forecast area. However, given the lower cloud
bases, frontogenesis, and isentropic lift, can't rule out a small
chance for precipitation occurring. Model consensus data did show
the potential for freezing rain over the northeast part of the
forecast area during the morning. However, am thinking that is due
to different models in the consensus ending the precipitation at
different times, or not having any precipitation present as this was
not supported by soundings showing ice in the clouds and probability
of ice accumulations being zero.
Saturday night a cold front will move through the forecast area as
winds turn more to be from the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
This part of the forecast continues to be similar to the short term;
numerous small scale upper level short wave troughs moving through
over the forecast area. As each day nears there will likely be
additional short wave troughs appear in the northwest flow over the
forecast area that have not yet been resolved by the models.
Models continue to warm Tuesday's high temperatures. This is ahead
of a stronger upper level trough that will move through mid week.
The most pronounced upper level short wave trough for the week is
forecast to move through mid week. The current track of this trough
keeps it mostly north of the forecast area. Current model ensemble
forecasts for precipitation keep the precipitation north of the
forecast area.
Beyond midweek there begins to be more of a difference in the timing
of the upper level short wave troughs moving through the flow.
Toward the end of the workweek the upper level ridge that has been
over the West Coast strengthens further, pushing the jet stream
further to the northeast of the forecast area. This should allow
for warmer, drier weather. With a rather strong ridge dominating
the weather pattern, a strong low pressure system will be needed to
overcome the ridge. Looking at long range model data, a strong
trough may not happen until the next week or two. Until then the
weather pattern should change very little from what we have had.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours as
winds gradually become westerly as cold front approaches around
12Z. Prior to the front's arrival there likely will be a period
of LLWS as winds increase to nearly 50kts near the base of
nocturnal inversion. Small threat for a few snow showers just
behind front, around 13Z at MCK but do not think probability is
high enough to include at this point. Winds will increase
sharply as boundary layer mixes out in the late morning to early
afternoon, with gusts approaching 40kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 052318
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
518 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog possible overnight into the morning, although confidence is
low on how much of it or exactly where.
- Temperatures go up and down through the next week: seasonal
through Saturday, cooler Sunday, then warming back up into mid-week.
- Low chance for a brief rain shower in northern KS Saturday
afternoon, otherwise looking dry through the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Water vapor imagery continues to show broad mid-level troughing
across most of the CONUS with moisture streaming along the Gulf
states into the southern Atlantic states, all just south of the
upper jet. Within the broad troughing pattern, a couple of
shortwaves are noted: one moving through the Central Plains and
another in central Canada. The combination of these has led to a
weak sfc troughing pattern across the state as we sit in between the
sfc lows that have developed in response to these shortwaves.
Another shortwave aloft is noted near the Pacific Northwest, and
this will set the stage for Saturday's weather. In the meantime, our
only impact from the wave near us is high cloud cover, which will
slowly push south into tonight. The clearing skies plus light winds
from the weak sfc pattern may result in enough radiational cooling
for fog to develop overnight into early Saturday morning. That said,
there is a wide range in the guidance as a few models suggest
widespread fog development while others produce little to no fog.
The higher resolution models are on the warmer side of temperature
guidance for Saturday morning, so that could be the reason for the
discrepancy. Forecast soundings seem to suggest shallow fog as we
get closer to sunrise. So will need to monitor this potential as
well as how widespread or dense it might get.
The rest of Saturday sees the Pacific shortwave strengthening a bit
as it moves through the northwest flow across the Missouri River
Valley. There is still some variation in how far south the sfc low
will track even with CAM guidance, as some solutions bring it as far
south as the KS/NE border while others keep it north into Nebraska.
Overall the best PVA is north of the area with most precip north of
the sfc low, but there does look to be enough isentropic lift ahead
of the sfc cold front to produce some light precip in northern KS
Saturday afternoon. CAMs support this as well with some light
reflectivity shown mainly north of I-70. Forecast soundings show
only a brief time window (1-2 hours) where precip could reach the
ground. Temperatures are warm enough to support rain, and forcing
for ascent weakens by the time colder air arrives. So have added
slight chance PoPs north of I-70 to account for the possibility of a
brief rain shower.
Colder air advects into the area behind the front, bringing
temperatures back down for Sunday as highs reach the mid 20s to mid
30s. From there, northwest flow aloft remains persistent into the
middle of next week with the track of additional systems currently
favored to keep precip northeast of the area. The low-level winds
take on a downsloping component by Tuesday, favoring a warm-up with
highs reaching the 50s. Confidence decreases in the temperature
forecast by the end of the week as models diverge on the evolution
of the upper trough to the east as well as embedded waves within the
flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light and
variable wind becoming southerly by tomorrow morning. Fog may
develop late tonight south of the terminals. It could advect
into the the Topeka terminals around 12z, but confidence in fog
at KTOP/KFOE is too low at this time to mention in the TAF.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Jones
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 052334
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
534 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near to just below normal temperatures today under mostly
cloudy skies and light north winds.
- Warmer tomorrow, but a dry cold frontal passage during the
afternoon/evening pushes temperatures back below normal
Sunday.
- Above normal temperatures and no precipitation chances Monday
through the end of the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at
midday reveal broad longwave troughing is in place over the
entire CONUS, with several vorticity maxima emanating through
the flow. At the surface, southwest KS resides on the far
southwestern periphery of low pressure centered over eastern
Canada, yielding light, cool northerly winds across our area.
These winds along with mostly cloudy skies should keep afternoon
temperatures near or just below normal with highs in the upper
40s/low 50s. Overnight, winds will drop to around 5 mph as the
aforementioned low pressure moves further away along with
clearing skies, optimizing radiational cooling and allowing
temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s by sunrise Saturday
morning.
Daytime Saturday, short range guidance agree the overall synoptic
pattern will stay static, but an embedded vorticity maximum
over the northern Rockies at 12Z will dig southeastward into the
central plains, resulting in a dry cold frontal passage around
00Z Sunday. Before this boundary arrives, pre-frontal
compression and mostly clear skies will support afternoon
temperatures rising above normal, with highs in the mid 50s to
near 60.
Medium range ensembles agree below normal temperatures will
return on Sunday behind the previous day's cold front, with
highs ranging from the mid 30s northeast to the upper 40s
southwest. However, this will be short lived as upper level
ridging begins to build over the western CONUS, which favors a
warming trend over the central plains along with little to no
precipitation chances Monday through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Aviation weather will be good this period from a flight category
standpoint as widespread VFR flight category is forecast in a
continued dry downslope pattern. Light and variable winds
tonight will become southwesterly mid-morning Saturday,
increasing to 15 to 20 knots for a few hours. A downslope-
modified cold front will sweep east across western Kansas late
in the period Saturday afternoon, resulting in a wind shift to
the west and eventually northwest.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid
