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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 181920
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
220 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and storms departing this evening. Windy
  conditions expected this afternoon through tonight.

- Cool and dry on Sunday.

- Temperature swings and rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Early this afternoon, a potent shortwave trough is passing over the
central/southern plains. The primary trough axis, located from
central Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, is the catalyst for
widespread showers and storms across far southeast Kansas.
Additionally, little capping and cool temperatures aloft have
allowed for some instability to develop across south-central Kansas,
and some isolated storms are likely this afternoon before the trough
exits eastward. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong cold front has
entered central Kansas and will quickly sweep across the area. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the advancing cold front and
will last into the nighttime hours.

As a result of this frontal passage, much cooler and drier air will
filter into the region by Sunday. Sunday will be the first true fall-
like day with morning lows starting off in the upper 30s to mid 40s
and afternoon highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be relatively light
on Sunday thanks to a surface ridge sliding across the area.
However, increasing winds aloft over the Rockies in lieu of the next
system will begin influencing the region late on Sunday with
pressure falls occurring across the High Plains. As a result, breezy
south/southwest winds are expected late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening expected across western and central Kansas. Temperatures
quickly rebound on Monday ahead of another cold front forecast to
arrive early on Tuesday. With the lack of moisture, rain chances are
negligent with the passage of this frontal boundary. Additional deep
layer troughs are set to arrive during the latter portions of next
week continuing a series of frontal passages across the region.
Additionally, some rain chances are possible assuming sufficient
moisture returns to the region, and sufficient ascent is present to
support showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast
Kansas early this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development
is expected across south central Kansas early this afternoon
with this activity sliding east through the early evening hours.
This activity will be close to ICT this afternoon however
confidence in direct impacts at the terminal remains too low to
include a prevailing mention at this time. CNU will see showers
and storms for most of the afternoon and early evening before
clearing out tonight. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will
remain VFR. Northwest winds will increase this afternoon behind
a cold front with breezy to low end windy conditions expected
at all sites with winds gradually diminishing late tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...WI



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 182017 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 217 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 MPH, are forecast today. Winds may also lead to blowing dust reducing air quality and visibility, especially near recently harvested fields. - A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern Colorado, southwest Nebraska, the Highway 27 corridor, along with Thomas and Rawlins county in Kansas Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of the area. - Another cold front with strong winds, dust and fire weather concerns is forecast Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado for Monday. - Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct 21). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Cold front has moved through the area and winds are starting to pick up as cold air advection and 850mb and 700mb jets strengthen. Generally wind gusts from the north of 40-55 mph are forecast. Although would not be surprised if some isolated instances of around 60 mph wind gusts occurs especially after 3pm as the 700mb strengthens to around 45-55 knots and diurnal mixing will be at its peak. Still can't rule out some spotty blowing dust during the afternoon hours but lapse rates are a little marginal and the overall strength of the wind really dont lead to me to believe that much dust can get lofted. Continue to think that any dust would be relegated to near recently plowed/harvested fields resulting in spotty locales of visibility falling under 1 mile. Have noticed some increasing mid level moisture via the 15Z RAP13 which may support some sprinkles or light showers but think that with the drier air at the surface if anything were to occur it would be sprinkles at best. Drier air is forecast to move in eroding any clouds that do manage to sneak into the area from the north. A surface high which is currently across Wyoming is forecast into the area along/just west of the Kansas/Colorado line will lead to a period of light and variable winds. This along with continued cold air advection will set the stage for the first frost and freezes for the area. I did expand the Freeze Warning to include Thomas county as there has been a subtle eastward shift of the high and guidance has come in colder as well. Some guidance does still have the high moving through quicker allowing winds to become more southwesterly sooner, if that does occur then more of a downsloping component would ensue keeper temperatures a bit warmer than what is forecasted. Sunday, surface troughing moves into the area allowing the area to warm up albeit more than today despite being the wake of the cold front with highs currently forecast in the in the low to mid 70s. Breezy winds are forecast to continue with the trough gusting 20-30 mph before slowly waning through the afternoon. With the drier air remaining in place behind the front RH values are forecast to fall into the mid teens to low 20s across nearly the entire forecast area. Some localized critical fire weather conditions may be possible west of the Colorado/Kansas state line but with the winds forecast to decline through the afternoon confidence is not there for 3 or more hours of critical conditions to warrant any fire weather highlights at this time. Through the evening another system across the northern Plains intensifies as a cold front approaches the area as winds shift to the north again. Winds do appear to remain breezy through the night Sunday and into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The extended period appears to start out active on Monday as just mentioned another and stronger cold front is forecast to move through the area between 12 and 15Z Monday morning. Wind appears again to be main concern with this front currently with winds gusts around 55 mph and potentially as high as 65 mph occurs. The key to the stronger winds will be exactly what time will it move through and if enough mixing can occur to bring those winds down to the surface. Blowing dust is also a concern as long winds remain strong enough to support dust being lofted. With the gusty winds today and no precipitation forecast before Monday confidence is a bit higher Monday in dust occurring across the area. Mixing heights around 2000 meters and 2-2.5km lapse rates around 3-6C/km are also favorable as well for keeping a cap on the amount of dust that can escape into the atmosphere. The other concern for Monday is fire spread potential. Am seeing an increasingly favorable signal for the potential for critical fire weather conditions at least for counties along the Kansas/Colorado state line. NAM and GFS soundings both show lower dew points just above the surface which leads me to believe that these lower dew points will mix down easily leading to lower dew points than what guidance output is suggesting. So with all of this in mind along with collaboration from WFO Pueblo and Boulder will be issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Monday. Monday night, continues to appear to be the next potential for frost and freeze for the area. Another more broad surface high is forecast to set in over the area allowing for strong radiational cooling potential. If winds can lighten enough then a widespread hard freeze may be realized. Am still opting to hold off on adding in frost into the forecast until I see how the Freeze Warning for tonight pans out as the growing season may end for some ahead of Tuesday morning. Tuesday, at this time appears to be fairly tranquil as the high pressure slowly moves out of the area, as this occurs then winds are forecast to shift to the southwest, very similar to what is forecast to occur Sunday (Tomorrow). Mid week, guidance continues to show a compact disturbance moving across the area bringing the next potential for rain chances. GFS is a bit further north so think this is what the NBM is picking up on for the slightly higher chances of rainfall. GEFS spread however still continues to show a bit of a spread of the location and timing of this so am still not completely sold on the rain chances as of yet. Looking ahead towards next weekend, guidance does show another deepening trough which may indicate that this active pattern we are in will continue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds have begun to increase across the area gusting 30-40 knots. Can't completely rule out a rogue gust around 45 knots at some point this afternoon. Confidence is not there to continue to keep BLDU in the TAF as current thinking if any occurs it will be more localized. If this changes will issue an AMD. Winds are forecast to continue through the afternoon before waning this evening as a gradual shift to a more southerly direction occurs around 12Z or so. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042. CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for COZ252>254. NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg FXUS63 KGLD 182028 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 228 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 MPH, are forecast today. Winds may also lead to blowing dust reducing air quality and visibility, especially near recently harvested fields. - A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern Colorado, southwest Nebraska, the Highway 27 corridor, along with Thomas and Rawlins county in Kansas Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of the area. - Another cold front with strong winds, dust and fire weather concerns is forecast Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado for Monday. - Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct 21). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Cold front has moved through the area and winds are starting to pick up as cold air advection and 850mb and 700mb jets strengthen. Generally wind gusts from the north of 40-55 mph are forecast. Although would not be surprised if some isolated instances of around 60 mph wind gusts occurs especially after 3pm as the 700mb strengthens to around 45-55 knots and diurnal mixing will be at its peak. Still can't rule out some spotty blowing dust during the afternoon hours but lapse rates are a little marginal and the overall strength of the wind really dont lead to me to believe that much dust can get lofted. Continue to think that any dust would be relegated to near recently plowed/harvested fields resulting in spotty locales of visibility falling under 1 mile. Have noticed some increasing mid level moisture via the 15Z RAP13 which may support some sprinkles or light showers but think that with the drier air at the surface if anything were to occur it would be sprinkles at best. Drier air is forecast to move in eroding any clouds that do manage to sneak into the area from the north. A surface high which is currently across Wyoming is forecast into the area along/just west of the Kansas/Colorado line will lead to a period of light and variable winds. This along with continued cold air advection will set the stage for the first frost and freezes for the area. I did expand the Freeze Warning to include Thomas county as there has been a subtle eastward shift of the high and guidance has come in colder as well. Some guidance does still have the high moving through quicker allowing winds to become more southwesterly sooner, if that does occur then more of a downsloping component would ensue keeper temperatures a bit warmer than what is forecasted. Sunday, surface troughing moves into the area allowing the area to warm up albeit more than today despite being the wake of the cold front with highs currently forecast in the in the low to mid 70s. Breezy winds are forecast to continue with the trough gusting 20-30 mph before slowly waning through the afternoon. With the drier air remaining in place behind the front RH values are forecast to fall into the mid teens to low 20s across nearly the entire forecast area. Some localized critical fire weather conditions may be possible west of the Colorado/Kansas state line but with the winds forecast to decline through the afternoon confidence is not there for 3 or more hours of critical conditions to warrant any fire weather highlights at this time. Through the evening another system across the northern Plains intensifies as a cold front approaches the area as winds shift to the north again. Winds do appear to remain breezy through the night Sunday and into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The extended period appears to start out active on Monday as just mentioned another and stronger cold front is forecast to move through the area between 12 and 15Z Monday morning. Wind appears again to be main concern with this front currently with winds gusts around 55 mph and potentially as high as 65 mph occurs. The key to the stronger winds will be exactly what time will it move through and if enough mixing can occur to bring those winds down to the surface. Blowing dust is also a concern as long winds remain strong enough to support dust being lofted. With the gusty winds today and no precipitation forecast before Monday confidence is a bit higher Monday in dust occurring across the area. Mixing heights around 2000 meters and 2-2.5km lapse rates around 3-6C/km are also favorable as well for keeping a cap on the amount of dust that can escape into the atmosphere. The other concern for Monday is fire spread potential. Am seeing an increasingly favorable signal for the potential for critical fire weather conditions at least for counties west of the Kansas/Colorado state line. NAM and GFS soundings both show lower dew points just above the surface which leads me to believe that these lower dew points will mix down easily leading to lower dew points than what guidance output is suggesting. So with all of this in mind along with collaboration from WFO Pueblo and Boulder will be issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Monday. Monday night, continues to appear to be the next potential for frost and freeze for the area. Another more broad surface high is forecast to set in over the area allowing for strong radiational cooling potential. If winds can lighten enough then a widespread hard freeze may be realized. Am still opting to hold off on adding in frost into the forecast until I see how the Freeze Warning for tonight pans out as the growing season may end for some ahead of Tuesday morning. Tuesday, at this time appears to be fairly tranquil as the high pressure slowly moves out of the area, as this occurs then winds are forecast to shift to the southwest, very similar to what is forecast to occur Sunday (Tomorrow). Mid week, guidance continues to show a compact disturbance moving across the area bringing the next potential for rain chances. GFS is a bit further north so think this is what the NBM is picking up on for the slightly higher chances of rainfall. GEFS spread however still continues to show a bit of a spread of the location and timing of this so am still not completely sold on the rain chances as of yet. Looking ahead towards next weekend, guidance does show another deepening trough which may indicate that this active pattern we are in will continue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds have begun to increase across the area gusting 30-40 knots. Can't completely rule out a rogue gust around 45 knots at some point this afternoon. Confidence is not there to continue to keep BLDU in the TAF as current thinking if any occurs it will be more localized. If this changes will issue an AMD. Winds are forecast to continue through the afternoon before waning this evening as a gradual shift to a more southerly direction occurs around 12Z or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Watching for some locally critical fire weather conditions across eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. Winds are forecast to be from the southwest gusting 20-30 mph from the late morning hours through the afternoon where the higher gusts are favored but will see a gradual decline through the afternoon. Due to the low confidence in 3 or more hours occurring of critical conditions will forego any fire weather highlights. Monday, however will see a strong cold front move through the area between 12-18z with strong to windy conditions following it. The winds will continue through the day from the north gusting 40-55 mph as much drier air moves in with it. I did lower dew points some from the NBM as forecast soundings shows drier air just above the surface that should have no problem mixing down resulting in RH values of at least 15% occurring. There was heavy consideration to including Cheyenne (KS), Sherman, Wallace and Greeley counties in this watch as well but confidence was not quite there yet in 15% humidity being met let alone for multiple hours. If fuels were fully cured, which per fuel partners they are not yet but are slowly getting there, with the humidity being close would have went ahead and issued based on the strength of the winds. If guidance does continue to lower then an expansion of the watch or just a straight shot to a Red Flag Warning may be warranted. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042. CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for COZ252>254. NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 181857 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front moves through the area today with northwest winds gusting at 30-40 MPH behind the front this afternoon and evening. - Feeling more like Fall behind the front starting Sunday and continuing through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A cold front was just entering north central Kansas early this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a mid-level wave was riding along the KS/OK border. Lift and moisture associated with the low will likely move far enough north to bring some showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm to southeast portions of the area (generally south of I-35). Some sprinkles are also possible in the wake of the cold front with upper-level ascent and some steeper mid-level lapse rates moving through the cold air advection. With the stronger push of cold air and steep lapse rates, wind gusts around 35 mph are possible late this afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure builds in tonight. Wind speeds will diminish and cloud cover clear. This should lead to a rather cool night, with overnight lows in the 30s possible across north central Kansas. Cooler, more Fall-like weather will hang on through the week. Another cold front moves through on Monday, but it appears this frontal passage will be dry with moisture remaining well of to the south and east. The next chance of rain may not arrive until the end of the week as models have been consistent in depicting a closed low moving into the central Plains sometime Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A strong cold front will move through around 22z today. This will bring a sharp wind shift out of the northwest and gusty wind around 30 knots for the late afternoon and evening. Wind speeds should begin to diminish after 06z. Some light showers are possible following shortly behind the frontal passage, but confidence in these materializing and impacting the terminals is too low at this point to mention anything in the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 182200 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 500 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory remains in effect with no changes in counties and no upgrade to Freeze Warning as probabilities of 32F or less are too low to support a warning (Hamilton Co. will be close around 50% prob along/north of the Ark River). - Another strong cold front Monday with north winds 20 to 30 mph, similar to today, and no precipitation. - Signals continue to increase in a widespread rain event across a fairly large portion of Kansas later in the upcoming week. NBM probs of 1/4" or more 2-day rainfall are in the 30 to 50% range, highest toward south central Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The early afternoon water vapor imagery and objective analysis fields showed the phasing of a southern stream shortwave trough with a digging northern stream jet streak, which was amplifying upward vertical motion ahead of the phasing systems to our east. A subtle "comma head" feature was developing on satellite across south central Kansas, but as the phased mid-latitude cyclone (MLC) matures tonight, it will continue to pull away from our southwest Kansas region. The cold front, tied to the initial northern stream component of the now phased MLC, continued to drive quickly south across southwest Kansas. Surface winds have responded with most observations across western Kansas recording north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35+ at times on good MSLP rises behind the front (on the order of +5 mb/3h). Decent MSLP rises will continue through the early evening, but as the center of the expanding MSLP high continues southeast this evening and tonight, winds will decrease. The decreasing wind, a clear sky, and much lower dewpoints falling down into the mid to upper 20s (degF) through the night will allow ideal radiational cooling across western Kansas. The inherited Frost Advisory along/west of Liberal to Dighton to WaKeeney line still looks good. Latest 12Z NBM and HREF probabilistic fields for 2-meter temperatures do not really support upgrade of the Frost Advisory to a Freeze Warning (32F or less), with perhaps the exception being Hamilton County. A low-amplitude ridge will move quickly across the Western Plains followed by another vigorous shortwave trough early in the week. The larger hemispheric scale pattern will be highly progressive, so this next shortwave trough will foster a very fast-moving cold front and no precipitation. Monday's weather will be similar to today in that strong north winds and a mostly sunny sky will prevail. Heading deeper into the upcoming week, a large scale main polar branch ridge axis will develop across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. An initial cutoff low off the coast of Southern California will begin to feel the influence of another upstream northern branch trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, effectively kicking out the SoCal low out across the Four Corners region late Wednesday Night/early Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnants of the polar frontal zone from the earlier week system will remain in place around or just south of our region, and a new surface low is expected to develop somewhere over northeastern New Mexico to far southwest Kansas. Southerly low level winds will draw up gulf moisture across West Texas toward the surface low. Ingredients appear to be coming together for an organized precipitation event across a decent portion of the Central and Southern Plains, focused on late Thursday through early Friday. Global deterministic and associated ensemble systems favor a surface low track across Oklahoma, and if this pans out, this favors at least moderate precipitation across Kansas, including perhaps a fair portion of southwest Kansas. Given this, the NBM POPs for Thursday Night continue to increase, up to around 40-50% for our eastern forecast area, generally east of Highway 283. There has also been a consistent trend in these POPs expanding westward in successive model runs, and if this trend continues with more global model ensemble systems honing in on a storm track to our south, POPs will increase even more across southwest Kansas. This system is still 5-6 days out, so this is about as specific as we can get regarding any sort of signal for the late week potential precipitation event. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Some mid level to high level clouds tonight, but that is about it. Strong N winds 20-30 kt will continue until around 03Z. Winds will become light and variable by 06Z as high pressure drops south across the terminals. This high will move SE tomorrow, with breezy SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt by 18Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>076- 084>086. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Sugden