ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 280842
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances for tonight with a brief rain/snow mix possible
over central Kansas Saturday morning
- Gusty northwest winds reaching advisory levels behind cold
frontal passage looks favorable on Saturday
- A second weather system has a 30-50% chance for 1" or greater
snowfall to affect mainly central/south central Kansas for late
Sunday night into Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a fleet-footed upper
level wave moving east across the northwestern states. This
wave will spark off light rain showers across the area tonight
into Saturday. Also can't rule out a few weak thunderstorms
with some elevated instability predicted(strong or severe
storms not anticipated). Meanwhile a strong cold front will
surge southward across Kansas Saturday morning with a decent
signature for deeper adiabatic mixing tapping into stronger wind
speeds aloft. The signal from ECMWF EFI(index 0.8 for wind
speeds) and HREF model solution has greater than 60% probability
of northwest winds surpassing 30mph. This could result in a
wind advisory being hoisted across central/south central Kansas.
In addition, there is a chance that a brief period of light
rain/snow mix could affect central Kansas Saturday morning as
the colder air surges southward. No snow accumulation is
expected with this upper level system.
Much colder air will overspread the region for Sunday into
Monday with below normal temperatures. Wind chills will drop
into the the single digits for early Sunday morning. A second
upper level wave will eject from the Rockies and move eastward
across Kansas on Monday. This wave will be stronger than the
previous system with model guidance suggesting a 30-50% chance
of 1" or greater snowfall affecting mainly central/south central
Kansas late Sunday night-Monday. Dry with colder than normal
temperatures will prevail for Tuesday- Friday next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will persist overnight. Winds
will begin to increase around daybreak out of the east and
slowly veer to the southeast by the afternoon with breezy winds
at most sites expected. Clouds are expected to thicken and lower
through the day ahead of an approaching storm. Ceilings are
expected to drop into at least MVFR conditions by the end of
this TAF period with even lower ceilings expected Saturday
morning. Scattered rain showers are also expected to develop
Friday evening and night mainly across eastern Kansas.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...WI
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 280837
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few snow showers may accompany the frontal passage early
Saturday morning. There is also a very low chance that some
light icing may occur before the front arrives, favoring
counties along the Nebraska border.
- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
cold frontal passage early Sat morning, strongest (30-40 G 55
mph) between sunrise and noon Sat.
- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.
- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
For today, a seasonable day is forecast as northwesterly flow aloft
becomes more zonal ahead of an upper trough moving through the
Northern Rockies. Within this flow, mid and high level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming over the area and allow for mostly
cloud skies. Closer to the surface, a low is forecast to take shape
and deepen along the Front Range. This should strengthen the winds a
bit in the area and bring in some lower level moisture this morning.
The current forecast doesn't have fog forming with this, but it may
add some low level clouds to the already mostly cloudy skies. As the
day progresses, the surface low should begin to shift east into the
area. This should push the lower level moisture and stronger winds
east. For locales along the Colorado border, temperatures should
near the low to mid 50s with winds weakening late in the day. For
the rest of the area, cooler temperatures around 50 are forecast
with even cooler temperatures possible if the low level cloud cover
does form. Winds should be around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Tonight, the upper trough axis is forecast to swing through the area
while pushing the surface low just south and east of the area. It is
a bit of a battle between how fast the low gets south (putting the
area on the wrap around side of the low) and how fast it goes east
(moving the dry slot into the area). The slower the low, the more
moisture that will wrap in and allows for rain, fog, and snow. The
faster the low, the more the dry slot moves in and ends
precipitation chances. The forecast is currently similar to ensemble
means, with a little bit of rain and fog ahead of a cold front that
then briefly becomes snow. The overall accumulations would be low
for each, below a tenth of liquid and below an inch of snow. That
being said, the alternate scenario favored is a slower progression.
While not impactful or that different, it would increase the max
liquid to around 0.15" and the snow to two inches. The main concern
for impacts is the possibility of dense fog and maybe some light
icing. The fog potential is higher if the center of the low moves
through the area before dipping south. With that, we would then have
better moisture advection and a moisture convergence point moving
through. As for the icing, there could be a small window along and
north of a line from Benkelman, NE to Hill City, KS if not enough
moisture advects in. Surface dewpoints would then be closer to
freezing and temperatures may be able to hit freezing from weak cold
air advection before the front barrels through. With this, freezing
rain or sleet may briefly occur. While the ground is likely too warm
for widespread impacts, it could lead to problems with elevated
surfaces. Even if icing does occur, accumulations likely wouldn't
exceed a hundredth or two with the limited time window and
aforementioned warm ground.
Saturday is forecast to be somewhat similar to last Tuesday. An
early cold front passage is forecast to allow winds to increase
during the morning hours with pressure rises of 6-8mb in the 3
hours. This would allow speeds to climb between 25 and 35 mph.
Meanwhile, winds just above the surface are forecast to be in the 40-
50 kts range as the trough axis slides east of the area and puts us
under a stronger height gradient. The saving grace is that the
forecast calls for the upper trough to broaden, lowering the chance
for winds to exceed 50 kts in this layer. Even if the winds are
stronger in this layer, the early frontal passage and cold air
advection should limit how much the winds can be mixed down. So,
similar to Tuesday, expect wind gusts generally around 40-55 mph
with a few gusts to 60 mph. The strongest winds are again forecast
to occur during the morning hours. Any precipitation and fog should
end during the morning as drier air moves in behind the cold front.
Temperatures are forecast to stay in the 20s and low 30s with the
strong cold air advection behind the front.
Saturday night, the area is forecast to be back under northwest flow
aloft. While the lower and mid level moisture should have been
pulled off to the east, high level cloud cover is forecast to move
over with moisture moving through the upper flow. However, that may
not be enough to keep the are from seeing lows in the single digits
and low teens from the colder/drier air mass that moved in at the
surface. At least winds should be lower around 10 mph or less as the
system moving away and the inversion sets up. Still the wind may be
just enough for some negative single digit wind chills.
Sunday, we are forecast to have a similar upper pattern to Friday as
another upper trough moves through the Northern Rockies. The main
difference with this trough is that it is forecast to be a bit
further west, with ensembles suggesting it could shift even further
west. The more west it shifts, the lesser the impact to the area.
Irregardless of which solution pans out, more mid and high cloud
cover is forecast to move over the area. Combined with broad
troughing across the Unites States, Sunday is forecast to cold with
temperatures in the 20s. Winds are forecast to be around 10 mph or
less for locales along and east of Highway 25, while the western
half of the area closer to the low sees winds around 15-25 mph with
gusts to 40 mph.
Sunday night, deterministic guidance is fairly unified on the trough
axis swinging through the area and into the Plains. However,
ensemble guidance suggests that the main trough axis may stay closer
to the West Coast. With this discrepancy, the forecast currently
follows the deterministic guidance and brings a chance for snow
through the night as the axis swings through the area. Unlike
Saturday's event, the surface low is likely too far to help provide
extra lift so most of the lift will be due to the trough axis. With
the cold temperatures SLRs are forecast to be higher around 15-20,
which could help the area see more widespread one to three inches.
This is in spite of lesser overall moisture content in the air
column. If the trough does stay west, then the area may see no snow
at all or flurries with little forcing to work with.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential
for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave
traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains
late Sun into Mon. At this range, confidence in precipitation
coverage, location and amounts cannot be ascertained with much
confidence. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the
system suggests relatively low precipitation amounts (sub-
warning criteria).. and the synoptic setup/pattern suggests
light winds.
Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests a warming/moderating
trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region / drains
downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return flow
pattern ensues -- followed by a cooling trend assoc/w another
cold frontal passage mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, but there are
multiple time periods where IFR conditions may also come into
play. Through the first six hours, VFR conditions are likely
with ceilings generally above 7000ft and winds roughly from the
southeast around 10 kts. Between 12-18Z, some guidance hints at
the development of a low cloud deck with ceilings around
500-700ft to the west of the terminals. It isn't clear if this
will form and/or move over the terminals, but keep an eye out
for updates. If these ceilings move over, KGLD will likely have
low ceilings through 21Z while KMCK may have ceilings remain low
through the remainder of the TAF period. Regardless of whether
or not the first batch of lower ceilings forms, low ceilings and
fog are possible after 00Z, especially for KMCK. If the fog and
low ceilings form, the forecast is for ceilings around 200-500ft
with 1/4 to 2 SM visibility in fog. This will be dependent on
how far a surface low moves east and if the area stays in the
wrap around side. In short, keep an eye on conditions while
flying today as conditions could get rough fairly quickly.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
FXUS63 KGLD 280849
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few snow showers may accompany the frontal passage early
Saturday morning. There is also a very low chance that some
light icing may occur before the front arrives, favoring
counties along the Nebraska border.
- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
cold frontal passage early Sat morning, strongest (30-40 G 55
mph) between sunrise and noon Sat.
- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.
- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
For today, a seasonable day is forecast as northwesterly flow aloft
becomes more zonal ahead of an upper trough moving through the
Northern Rockies. Within this flow, mid and high level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming over the area and allow for mostly
cloud skies. Closer to the surface, a low is forecast to take shape
and deepen along the Front Range. This should strengthen the winds a
bit in the area and bring in some lower level moisture this morning.
The current forecast doesn't have fog forming with this, but it may
add some low level clouds to the already mostly cloudy skies. As the
day progresses, the surface low should begin to shift east into the
area. This should push the lower level moisture and stronger winds
east. For locales along the Colorado border, temperatures should
near the low to mid 50s with winds weakening late in the day. For
the rest of the area, cooler temperatures around 50 are forecast
with even cooler temperatures possible if the low level cloud cover
does form. Winds should be around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Tonight, the upper trough axis is forecast to swing through the area
while pushing the surface low just south and east of the area. It is
a bit of a battle between how fast the low gets south (putting the
area on the wrap around side of the low) and how fast it goes east
(moving the dry slot into the area). The slower the low, the more
moisture that will wrap in and allows for rain, fog, and snow. The
faster the low, the more the dry slot moves in and ends
precipitation chances. The forecast is currently similar to ensemble
means, with a little bit of rain and fog ahead of a cold front that
then briefly becomes snow. The overall accumulations would be low
for each, below a tenth of liquid and below an inch of snow. That
being said, the alternate scenario favored is a slower progression.
While not impactful or that different, it would increase the max
liquid to around 0.15" and the snow to two inches. The main concern
for impacts is the possibility of dense fog and maybe some light
icing. The fog potential is higher if the center of the low moves
through the area before dipping south. With that, we would then have
better moisture advection and a moisture convergence point moving
through. As for the icing, there could be a small window along and
north of a line from Benkelman, NE to Hill City, KS if not enough
moisture advects in. Surface dewpoints would then be closer to
freezing and temperatures may be able to hit freezing from weak cold
air advection before the front barrels through. With this, freezing
rain or sleet may briefly occur. While the ground is likely too warm
for widespread impacts, it could lead to problems with elevated
surfaces. Even if icing does occur, accumulations likely wouldn't
exceed a hundredth or two with the limited time window and
aforementioned warm ground.
Saturday is forecast to be somewhat similar to last Tuesday. An
early cold front passage is forecast to allow winds to increase
during the morning hours with pressure rises of 6-8mb in the 3
hours. This would allow speeds to climb between 25 and 35 mph.
Meanwhile, winds just above the surface are forecast to be in the 40-
50 kts range as the trough axis slides east of the area and puts us
under a stronger height gradient. The saving grace is that the
forecast calls for the upper trough to broaden, lowering the chance
for winds to exceed 50 kts in this layer. Even if the winds are
stronger in this layer, the early frontal passage and cold air
advection should limit how much the winds can be mixed down. So,
similar to Tuesday, expect wind gusts generally around 40-55 mph
with a few gusts to 60 mph. The strongest winds are again forecast
to occur during the morning hours. Any precipitation and fog should
end during the morning as drier air moves in behind the cold front.
Temperatures are forecast to stay in the 20s and low 30s with the
strong cold air advection behind the front.
Saturday night, the area is forecast to be back under northwest flow
aloft. While the lower and mid level moisture should have been
pulled off to the east, high level cloud cover is forecast to move
over with moisture moving through the upper flow. However, that may
not be enough to keep the are from seeing lows in the single digits
and low teens from the colder/drier air mass that moved in at the
surface. At least winds should be lower around 10 mph or less as the
system moving away and the inversion sets up. Still the wind may be
just enough for some negative single digit wind chills.
Sunday, we are forecast to have a similar upper pattern to Friday as
another upper trough moves through the Northern Rockies. The main
difference with this trough is that it is forecast to be a bit
further west, with ensembles suggesting it could shift even further
west. The more west it shifts, the lesser the impact to the area.
Irregardless of which solution pans out, more mid and high cloud
cover is forecast to move over the area. Combined with broad
troughing across the Unites States, Sunday is forecast to cold with
temperatures in the 20s. Winds are forecast to be around 10 mph or
less for locales along and east of Highway 25, while the western
half of the area closer to the low sees winds around 15-25 mph with
gusts to 40 mph.
Sunday night, deterministic guidance is fairly unified on the trough
axis swinging through the area and into the Plains. However,
ensemble guidance suggests that the main trough axis may stay closer
to the West Coast. With this discrepancy, the forecast currently
follows the deterministic guidance and brings a chance for snow
through the night as the axis swings through the area. Unlike
Saturday's event, the surface low is likely too far to help provide
extra lift so most of the lift will be due to the trough axis. With
the cold temperatures SLRs are forecast to be higher around 15-20,
which could help the area see more widespread one to three inches.
This is in spite of lesser overall moisture content in the air
column. If the trough does stay west, then the area may see no snow
at all or flurries with little forcing to work with.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
Upper trough axis will be moving through Monday morning to start
the period, with additional light snow accumulations of less
than 1 inch expected. Should be clearing out Monday afternoon as
the trough moves east with high temperatures in the 30s. Lows
Monday night will be in the teens with a light west wind
mitigating radiational cooling potential. Will be between
systems on Tuesday with temperatures recovering to the 40s for
highs. Another progressive open wave moves through Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Ensembles show light snow confined
mostly to Colorado, less than 1 inch, though can't completely
discount a stray flake further east as the upper trough axis
swings through Wednesday morning. Temperatures cool slightly
behind that system with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and lows Wednesday night around 20. May see yet
another shortwave trough on Thursday, but snow potential looks
even less likely than previous system. Temperatures remain
coolish with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, but there are
multiple time periods where IFR conditions may also come into
play. Through the first six hours, VFR conditions are likely
with ceilings generally above 7000ft and winds roughly from the
southeast around 10 kts. Between 12-18Z, some guidance hints at
the development of a low cloud deck with ceilings around
500-700ft to the west of the terminals. It isn't clear if this
will form and/or move over the terminals, but keep an eye out
for updates. If these ceilings move over, KGLD will likely have
low ceilings through 21Z while KMCK may have ceilings remain low
through the remainder of the TAF period. Regardless of whether
or not the first batch of lower ceilings forms, low ceilings and
fog are possible after 00Z, especially for KMCK. If the fog and
low ceilings form, the forecast is for ceilings around 200-500ft
with 1/4 to 2 SM visibility in fog. This will be dependent on
how far a surface low moves east and if the area stays in the
wrap around side. In short, keep an eye on conditions while
flying today as conditions could get rough fairly quickly.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 280451
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1051 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will develop Friday night with mix of rain and wet snow
on Saturday. Any accumulation would be minor (half inch or
less on grassy areas) and mainly confined to the far northern
counties.
- A colder storm system will bring a chance for snow to the
area Sunday night and Monday. This system would have a better
chance to produce accumulating snow with potential travel
impacts across the area Monday.
- Unsettled pattern will persist through next week with colder
than avg temps expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
The forecast focus remains on the storm system that will impact
the area Friday night into Saturday with a second colder storm
with a chance for snow later Sunday night through Monday.
A subtle weak wave combined with 850-700mb WAA appeared to be
responsible for the morning clouds and flurries that have since
dissipated as the wave departs and shallow lift weakens. Light
winds will become southeast tonight as the atmosphere responds
to the wave that is now moving through the PAC NW and will dive
ESE toward the area Friday.
In advance of the wave WAA/lift should produce more mid cloud on
Friday with stronger/deeper lift expected to focus to our
northeast. There could be some sprinkles/flurries across the
north during the afternoon however chances appear low and there
would be no impacts. Stronger lift and precip will develop Fri
night with strong WAA/LLJ expected across the area which should
keep temps above freezing and limit precip to rain/drizzle most
areas as the low develops across southwest KS and tracks ENE.
This is an energetic system with 110kt jet digging into the
backside of the 500mb trough so expect widespread precip to
develop overnight into early Saturday. Critical thicknesses
and Tw fcsts suggest rain until around 12z Sat when some mix of
rain and wet snow could evolve across central/north central KS.
The window of max lift/precip appears to be 09-15Z saturday
when the heaviest rain/precip should fall. It will be a
progressive system so the time window of any wet snow mix would
be small and with warm temps to begin with this should limit
any accums. All in all our previous forecast appears on track
with rain mixing with or changing to wet snow with some minor
(less than one half inch) accums possible on grassy areas across
central and northern KS with perhaps a trace along the I-70
corridor from Alma east to Lawrence and southward.
All in all it will be a miserable day to be outdoors on Saturday
with windy and colder conditions expected to develop by
afternoon as the low departs with a quick end to the precip
expected from west to east. Colder air moves in for Sat night
and Sunday.
Any break on Sunday will be short lived as the next storm system
and associated lift will overspread the region later Sunday
night and Monday bringing a chance for snow to the area. This
system may actually have more of an impact on travel since it
will be colder with snow potentially accumulating on surfaces
including roadways on Monday. Stay tuned for more on this system
as we head into the weekend.
Colder than avg conditions will remain in place for much of next
week as the region remains in troughing aloft with a high degree
of uncertainty with regard to precip chances next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
High clouds continue to thicken tonight, with ceilings
steadily lowering through the day Friday, likely approaching
MVFR towards the end of the period. Some light showers may begin
to develop by late evening tomorrow as well. Winds stay light
tonight, but increase to around 10 kts during the day tomorrow,
becoming more southeasterly.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 280803
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Last nice outdoor day today
- Arctic cold front slams through Saturday
- Cold Sunday and Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Today is the last day for a while to get outside and do any outdoor
stuff that is needed. Dramatically colder conditions are expected
Saturday and thereafter. For today, Highs today will be quite mild
with upper 40s along the Interstate 70 corridor to around 60F by
Elkhart. For the synoptic weather pattern, a large upper level trof
will move across the northern Rockies and closer to the area throughout
the day. This will promote upstream cyclogenesis with a lee low deepening
throughout the day. The net result is strong WAA with warm temperatures
and gusty southerly winds. Even with the warm and winds, critical
fire weather conditions are not expected today, dewpoints will increase
today via the WAA.
By Saturday morning, the large upper level trof will swing out across
Kansas. This feature will usher in the passage of a strong Arctic
front by the morning. The high temperatures for the day will occur
most likely just after midnight Saturday. There should be a non diurnal
temperature curve with temperatures decreasing during the daylight
hours. It will be very windy as well. Strong northerly winds will
blow in the wake of the front. These winds and the falling temperatures
will lead to cold wind chill values with numbers falling into the
teens by Saturday afternoon. As far as precipitation is concerned,
it appears that most of the moisture will be east of the FA and much
of the area should be dryslotted. If there were to be any moisture,
it should be relegated to the far eastern zones.
The Arctic airmass will linger across the greater region Sunday and
Monday. Cold conditions are expected to highs only in the 20s to
30s Sunday and 30s for Monday. Cold lows are expected Sunday morning
with values in the single digits to teens and only teens Monday.
Wind chill values both mornings should be in the single digits. Use
caution and take action to keep yourself properly protected with
the cold spell. In addition, an overrunning situation might develop
with a second system Monday. This could provide some of the FA with
some snowfall. Right now there is considerable uncertainty in both
amounts and location at this time. The models are not in agreement
with the EC giving parts of the FA a few inches and the GFS has most
of the snow mainly north of the FA. Something to watch in the models
for any consensus with time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1014 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR should prevail through much of the TAF pd. There is a chance of
low VFR or even MVFR cigs for KHYS and KLBL but tonight. Otherwise,
the main concern is the strong southerly winds of 20-30 kt with gusts
over 30 kt through much of the day. LLWS via a 40 kt LLJ is also
possible during the morning hours.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
