ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 301114
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
514 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Single digit wind chills this morning with high temperatures
15-20 degrees below normal today.
- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Monday for areas
along and north of Highway 50 as accumulating snowfall is
likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave trough
moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley with zonal flow aloft in
our area. An additional upper-level trough is digging into the
northwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved into the
Northern Plains. In our area, northerly winds persist with much
colder air surging south. Temperatures have dropped into the teens
and lower 20s which is 10-15 degrees below normal. As we move
towards sunrise, wind chills will continue to drop into the single
digits across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will follow
suit and be 15-20 degrees below normal. Highs will generally
struggle to reach above freezing with the upper 20s forecast for
central KS and low 30s in south-central to southeast KS.
Tonight, the aforementioned upper-level trough over the northwestern
CONUS will continue to dig and move southeast into the Central
Rockies by Monday morning. This trough will move across our area on
Monday, increasing snowfall chances. Snow is forecast to start
Monday morning in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, as lift
increases from the upper-trough coupled with the left exit region of
upper jet. Given the increased lift generally falls in the DGZ, this
can lead to efficient snowfall rates. Additionally, these features
combined with increased low-level WAA and 850 mb frontogenesis could
lead to a heavier band of snow developing in central KS. Therefore,
the heaviest snowfall is likely Monday morning. The HREF generally
has 60% probability of greater than 2 inches of snow in central KS
with NBM probabilities between 30-50%. As the upper low moves
southeast into the Mississippi Valley with the low-level trough,
snow chances will shift into eastern Kansas and Missouri. General
snowfall amounts outside the heavier band will likely be in the 0.5
to 1" range across central to south-central KS. Given surface winds
will be between 5-10 mph, blowing snow will be less of a concern,
but reduced visibility is likely in the heavier snow band. HREF
is showing probabilities between 60-75% of less than a mile
visibility due to snowfall rates. All of this to say, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of
Highway 50.
Tuesday and beyond... The next upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the northwestern CONUS on Tuesday then move into the
southwestern CONUS on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF forecast this
trough to shift towards the Central Rockies late Thursday night.
This system could bring the next round of precipitation to the area
Thursday night into Friday, though confidence is not high at this
time. Outside of precipitation, temperatures will remain below
normal throughout the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs, however some lower
cigs will begin to spread into central Kansas late tonight.
This is when light snow could begin to fall over central Kansas as
a upper level weather system approaches from the west.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 301107
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
407 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s today and 30s
tomorrow. Lows are forecast to be in the single digits and
teens.
- Snow is forecast to move through the area tonight. Most of the
area should see less than an inch of snow, but locales
generally east of Highway 27 could see one to two inches.
- Dense fog is possible tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
Another cold day is forecast for today as the high pressure system
remains over the area for most of the day. Temperatures should be in
the teens and 20s with highs maxing out in the mid to upper 20s.
High level cloud cover is forecast to continue to move over the area
as we remain downstream of the next upper trough, putting the area
underneath mostly cloudy skies. Winds are forecast to be lower for
the area today with eastern portions of the area forecast to have
wind speeds around 10 mph. Counties along the Colorado border are
forecast to see slightly stronger winds around 15-20 mph as a low
pressure system develops along the Southern Front Range ahead of the
next trough.
This evening and through the overnight hours, the upper trough is
forecast to begin pushing east into and through the area. As it does
so, it is forecast to push some saturated air through the area while
the surface low shift just southwest of the area. This combined
setup should allow some snow showers to form and push through the
area. With the system having a steady progression, the snow showers
should form in Eastern Colorado and near the Tri-State border and
push steadily east. However, as the surface low also pushes east,
locales along and east of a line from Leoti, KS to Colby, KS to
Trenton, NE are forecast to be on the wrap around side of the low.
This combined with more saturated air is forecast to allow for
greater snow residency and some slightly stronger snow showers.
While not enough for any drastic differences, the western portion of
the area is forecast to see around a trace to half an inch of snow
whereas the aforementioned wrap around zone is forecast to see an
inch or two of snow. With ensembles still showing some discrepancy
with the progression of the trough, amounts could be half an inch to
an inch higher if the trough does pull west and keep the wrap around
zone further west. Even in this scenario, the probability of seeing
more than 3 inches of snow is 15%, so snow amounts are not too
concerning at this time. Thankfully, the trough is forecast to be
tilted and broad which is keeping both the height gradients and the
surface pressure gradient on the weaker side. This should keep winds
in the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts to 25 mph, keeping the threat of
blowing snow very low. The main concern from a hazard perspective is
the possibility for dense fog in the aforementioned favored area. If
moisture is wrapping around and concentrating there, it wouldn't be
unreasonable for dense fog to form. Lows overnight are forecast to
be in the teens again with the cold air mass till mostly over the
area.
Monday, the upper trough should finish swinging through the area and
push the moisture to the east. This will allow any precipitation and
dense fog to end during the morning hours, with the cloud cover
clearing during the remainder of the day. As the trough does push
the colder air east, some warmer air is forecast to advect in from
behind it and allow the area to warm into the 30s as long as the sun
does break through. Winds are forecast to be in the 10 to 20 mph
range as the high pressure pushes east and lower pressure develops
to the west.
Monday night, clear skies are forecast for most of the night until
some possible higher clouds push in with northwest flow aloft. Winds
near the surface are forecast to be fairly light around 5 to 10 mph
as we remain far between systems and the pressure gradient weakens.
Lows are forecast to drop into the teens again.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
A broad zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS this period
with a nearly stationary upper low anchored over eastern
Canada. A series of embedded shortwave troughs will bring some
chances for light snow. The first system will organize in the
Four Corners Wednesday then eject into the central plains
Wednesday night and Thursday. ECMWF ensemble average slightly
more bullish on snow amounts compared to the GFS and Canadian
ensembles, showing 1-2" with highest amounts in Colorado, while
the other ensembles showing less than 1" at this time. None of
the models showing much in the way of wind. Another shortwave
could follow for Friday night and Saturday, but models in rather
poor agreement at the present time leading to low confidence in
the details. However, it does look to be another progressive
open wave which typically produce light snow amounts, if any at
all. Temperatures will generally be near normal, with a slight
cool down on Wednesday and Thursday with the system moving
through.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through 03Z.
Higher level cloud cover around 7500-12500 is forecast through
the day. Winds are forecast to start light and variable, before
becoming more steady from the southeast as the day progresses.
Around 03Z, snow showers are forecast to develop and move
through the area. Accumulations are forecast to be below a few
inches, but be alert for pockets of very low visibility. Fog is
also forecast to develop as low level moisture moves through the
area. While currently forecast to be around 2-5SM, dense fog
around one quarter of a mile is possible, especially closer to
12Z. Ceilings should also lower to be more around 1000-2000ft.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 301150
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Very cold weather in place today.
-A quick moving system will bring widespread accumulating snowfall
to the area tonight and tomorrow (Monday).
-A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most counties.
-Temperatures will remain cold all week, with another chance for
rain/snow late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
As one storm system pulls away, another approaches. Water vapor
imagery early this morning shows yesterday's system now over the
Great Lakes with the next mid-level wave digging over the
northwestern CONUS. Ahead of that next wave, a large surface ridge
builds in today and brings a very chilly air mass with it.
Temperatures this morning are the teens and low 20s, but the
northwest breeze makes it feel more like the single digits. Highs
this afternoon will only top out in the mid and upper 20s...well
below climatological averages.
The cold air mass will remain in place as PVA associated with
the northwest wave moves over the area. A batch of snow will
develop as lift increases tonight and Monday morning. An
increasing jet streak in the flow will induce some mid-level
frontogenesis, which should allow for a band of moderate
snowfall during the daytime hours of Monday. There is still time
for a slight shift in location, but as of right now, the
highest probabilities for the highest snow totals appear to be
along and north of I-70. The HREF Grand Ensemble and NBM agree
with a general 2.0 to 4.0 inches of snow along and north of
I-70, while the LREF Grand Ensemble has the highest band
centered over I-70. Confidence is fairly high in a general 1.0
to 3.0 inches of snow by Monday evening south of I-70. Went
ahead an issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area
north of I-35 with high enough confidence in travel impacts due
to accumulating snowfall. Both morning and evening commutes
could be impacted Monday. The next shift may choose to expand
the advisory southeast.
Snow ends Monday afternoon from west to east. With snow on the
ground, temperatures will once again be very cold Monday night
with lows in the single digits in far northern KS and in the
teens elsewhere. Sunshine and south winds return Tuesday as high
pressure moves east of the area, so temperatures should warm
above freezing in the afternoon. A progressive synoptic pattern
will bring a cold front through on Wednesday, but have kept
POPs less than 10 percent due to limited upper level support and
moisture. A 1035 mb ridge will slide in from Canada behind the
front and will bring some of the coldest temperatures of the
season so far on Thursday. Temperatures then moderate a bit on
Friday when models show another chance for precipitation as low
pressure moves into the Ozarks from the south. The temperature
forecast would suggest that both rain and snow could occur if
that solution materializes.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
VFR conditions initially are likely to become MVFR with a
stratus cloud deck building in from the north. Have MVFR CIGS
occurring late this morning and holding through the rest of the
day. Will then have to track snow as it develops toward the end
of the period. Snow will bring reduced visibility through the
day Monday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 301048
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
448 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens with
wind chills in the single digits
- Cold air continues through Monday
- A quick moving system will bring light accumulations of snow to
parts of southwest and north central Kansas on Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
The current synoptic pattern is headlined only by a trough along the
northern section of the CONUS bringing snow across the majority of
midwestern states. Present RAP mesoanalysis has western Kansas
dominated by weak ridging that has been building. This will help
ease the very strong winds Saturday even further to 5-15 mph Sunday.
Additionally on Sunday, cold but seasonal temperatures are expected
to continue. Especially Sunday morning, the apparent temperature
will be in the single digits and even approach 0 degrees in some
areas. Daytime temperatures will approach 30 degrees and the
forecast focus will shift to Monday.
Models and ensembles continue to hold a snow system moving across
Kansas on Monday. The difficulty is in nailing down specific banding
in the storm. Most of heaviest snowfall will remain outside of the
CWA. The concern with accumulating amounts would be in the
northeastern counties, especially Ellis. A previous NAMNST
model run had Ellis approaching 4 inches of snow. It seems that
is not an unreasonable high-end forecast amount with ensembles
giving a 15-30% chance to exceed 3 inches. A more reasonable
estimate is in the range of 1-2 inches. With the uncertainty in
band placement that will be across the northeast/southwest, the
heaviest snow may reach as far south down to Stafford county.
There is also the reasonable outcome that the heaviest snow
misses out of the entire area with no area receiving over an
inch. Due to the lack of confidence in >1" amounts and
uncertainty in frontogenesis band placement, a Winter Weather
Advisory has not yet been issued. As more precision and
confidence is created, the final decision will be made on if
one will be needed. Other than deviant bands, snowfall will
begin around Ellis county in the very early morning by around 2
AM and last in the CWA until around noon.
Monday and Tuesday mornings will continue to see cold wind chills in
the morning in the single digits. Beyond the system on Monday,
ensembles have the synoptic flow transitioning to primarily
zonal regime. From there temperatures will moderate becoming
more seasonal with a primarily dry pattern and no significant
(>20%) chances via ensembles. Lighter winds and modest relative
humidities will keep fire weather chances low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Light north/variable winds will start the period before winds
strengthen out of the southeast. Widespread cloud cover is forecast,
but it is not expected the ceilings lower flight conditions. HYS is
forecast to see light/moderate snow from around 2z until near the
end of the TAF period and is the only terminal expected to see
weather effect flight conditions.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
