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Office: ICT

FXUS63 KICT 210917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018

With a large mid/upper ridge situated over the Rockies and
continuing to slide eastward today, it will be another day of
clear skies and relatively warm temperatures for the time of year
with dry air in place over the state. Downslope flow at 850mb and
abundant sunshine should allow afternoon highs to reach near 60
degrees across much of the area.

For Thanksgiving Day, it looks like the forecast will remain dry
and warm as the ridging continues to move across mid-America.
Meanwhile, a surface low forming in the central Rockies will
tighten the pressure gradient across central, south central, and
southeast Kansas and allow for southerly winds to pick up across
the area Thursday evening and into Friday.

Once this surface low begins to progress across the state, this
will bring our next shot at rain for late Thursday night into
Friday as moisture transport increases across the area. The warm
temperatures will remain in place, resulting in only rain as the
precipitation type. Models have been in fairly good agreement,
though of note the latest GFS came in much drier for south central
Kansas. Given the consistency over the past few days, however, and
the good agreement between other models, have left the forecast as
status-quo. Once again, bumped QPF up slightly from the
initialization grids to trend more towards WPC and the
ECMWF/Canadian solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018

The main focus in the long term was placed on the next system
scheduled to move across the area Saturday night into Sunday. A
deep longwave trough looks to push ahead a decently strong surface
low, which would bring chances of rain, snow, and wintry mix to
the forecast area as much colder temperatures make a return. As
was the case yesterday, the overnight suite of models continues
to hint that the system could be a quick moving one, which would
certainly limit the impacts of the potential winter weather.
Another challenge will be pinpointing the position of the low,
which has varied significantly amongst model runs over the past
couple of days. The position could have a large impact on which
areas receive which precipitation type and how much. However, as
has been previously discussed, variations are to be expected over
the next few days as the details become more clear.

What does seem likely at this point is that central Kansas would
have the best chance of seeing snow, southern Kansas would have
the best chance of seeing mostly rain, and a wintry mix is
possible in between. Additionally, a very strong pressure gradient
will produce strong north winds across the entire area, with
sustained speeds of at least at 30mph or more with gusts up to
40mph. With this forecast package, increased sky cover quite a bit
on Sunday as well, with mid-level relative humidity forecast to
be well into the 80-90% range. Continue to favor a non-diurnal
temperature trend for Sunday, holding temperatures during the day
and even dropping slightly by late afternoon/early evening.

As the system moves off to the east Sunday night, the pattern
becomes much less active again with drier air in place over the
Central and Southern Plains. Indications continue to be that
temperatures could begin to slowly rebound next week, but how much
warmer we will get will also depend on snowfall amounts from the
Saturday night/Sunday system. Otherwise, expect quiet weather
heading into the workweek next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period
along with southerly surface flow and mostly clear skies.



Wichita-KICT    60  36  58  47 /   0   0   0  50
Hutchinson      60  35  59  46 /   0   0   0  40
Newton          60  35  58  45 /   0   0   0  50
ElDorado        59  36  58  45 /   0   0   0  50
Winfield-KWLD   59  35  59  46 /   0   0   0  50
Russell         60  32  60  44 /   0   0   0  30
Great Bend      60  33  60  44 /   0   0   0  30
Salina          59  35  59  46 /   0   0   0  40
McPherson       60  34  58  45 /   0   0   0  40
Coffeyville     59  34  60  46 /   0   0   0  30
Chanute         58  34  59  45 /   0   0   0  40
Iola            58  34  59  44 /   0   0   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    58  34  59  46 /   0   0   0  30





Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 210957 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 257 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018 Synoptic Overview: An upper level ridge over the Intermountain West will progress east across the Rockies and High Plains today- tonight as a complex upper level trough moves ashore the Pacific coast. Southwest flow aloft will prevail on Thursday -- in advance of shortwave energy progressing eastward from central/northern California to the 4-Corners region. The aforementioned shortwave will track east across the Central Plains on Friday. Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence attendant the upper level ridge progressing east across the Rockies will maintain mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and seasonable temperatures. Thursday-Thursday night: Expect increasing cirrus and a modest southerly breeze in western Kansas as flow aloft backs to the southwest and a lee cyclone develops in eastern Colorado -- in advance of shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners region. Sensible weather conditions will otherwise be similar to today. Friday-Friday Night: The lee cyclone will progress east across the Tri-State area in concert with the aforementioned shortwave energy during the day Friday. Winds will abruptly shift to the northwest and strengthen in the wake of the lee cyclone Friday morning. No significant change in airmass will accompany the wind shift and highs will be similar to Thu, though perhaps a few degrees cooler (depending on upper level cloud cover). Subsidence in the wake of the progressive shortwave will favorably coincide with diurnal heating, resulting in deep vertical mixing amidst speedy NW flow aloft. GFS/NAM forecast soundings indicate 25-35 knot flow off the deck with as much as 40-50 knot flow in the upper portion of the mixed layer, strongest in northeast Colorado and extreme northwest Kansas. With the above in mind, expect sustained northwesterly winds at 25-35 mph with gusts in the 45-55 mph range Friday afternoon. Winds will rapidly decrease AOA sunset with loss of insolation /mixing/ and a slackening MSLP gradient. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 118 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018 A longwave upper-level trough will progress eastward across the Mountain West which will lead to the quick development of a strong surface low Saturday evening near the Central High Plains. This will bring in precipitation which will start as rain Saturday afternoon and then switch over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing after dark Saturday evening. Snow is expected to last into the morning hours Sunday before slowly tapering off around sunrise. While the overall rainfall/snowfall totals will not be significant, an accompanying high wind event will make for rough travel conditions this coming holiday weekend. It is not unreasonable to anticipate wind gusts up to 50 mph or higher out of the northwest Saturday evening. With even light snowfall rates, these high wind gusts will make for widespread blowing snow and significantly reduced visibilities, especially since this event will mostly occur at night. This time frame is a little unusual for typical high wind events in which higher momentum is mixed down during the daylight/afternoon hours. The highest wind gusts this weekend will generally be from about 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday, but wind gusts up to 40 mph and some blowing snow will be possible through Sunday afternoon. Those with plans to travel through the Tri-State area overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning will want to monitor this forecast closely to make the best decisions they can about travel arrangements. As the upper-level trough pushes farther east Sunday, things will dry out for the Central High Plains. There is not expected to be any active weather at this time for early next week other than partly cloudy skies Monday through Wednesday as things slowly warm back up. High temperatures will start out Saturday afternoon in the mid 50s before the surface low cools things off dramatically. Highs Sunday will struggle to reach 40 degrees, then gradually warm back up to the mid 50s by the middle of next week. Similarly, low temperatures start out Saturday morning in the low 30s, then cool down to the mid 20s Sunday and the low 20s for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday morning, low temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018 VFR conditions /clear skies/ and light W-SW winds are expected through the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PATTON AVIATION...VINCENT
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 211131 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 531 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 Early this morning the region remained under northwesterly flow aloft with a broad mid-level trough stretched across the northeastern U.S. However, expect the mid-level ridge centered over the Rockies early this morning to shift eastward into the central U.S. tonight into Thanksgiving Day. An expansive region of surface high pressure will remain anchored over the eastern U.S., so the combination of this high pressure and the building mid-level ridge will keep conditions dry through tonight. Despite clear skies early this morning, light southwesterly winds will aid in limiting the effect of radiational cooling and keep temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday with lows only dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. Abundant sunshine is expected today with southerly surface winds supporting enough warm-air advection to boost high temperatures above the seasonal normals with readings into the mid/upper 50s and possibly even into the low 60s in some locations. Clear skies will allow for decent radiational cooling once again tonight, but persistent light southerly winds should keep low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 The primary focus for the extended period continues to reside with the potential for a significant winter storm Sunday... Thanksgiving-Thursday looks to remain quite pleasant across the forecast area as a midlevel ridge axis traverses the central Plains. Southerly winds are likely to gust upwards of 25 MPH throughout the day as an approaching midlevel trough across the central Rockies deepens a sfc lee trough and thus the sfc pressure gradient. Mixing heights are progged to near 925-900 mb during the afternoon. With 900 mb temperatures near 8-8.5 C, sfc temperatures are likely to approach 60 F Thanksgiving afternoon. Rain chances will be on the increase late Thursday night into Friday as the aforementioned midlevel trough axis and attendant Pacific front traverse the central US. A deep warm layer beneath 800 mb will yield an all-rain event. Little, if any, in the way of CAA is expected behind the weak Pacific front, therefore expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. Our attention is then drawn northwestward as the next shortwave trough comes ashore in the Pacific northwest late Friday. Model solutions dive the shortwave southeastward across the central Rockies before greatly amplifying and ultimately becoming a stout midlevel low. Intense, associated sfc and 850 mb lows are progged to develop in the Colorado front-range Saturday. 00Z GFS/ECMWF solutions, and prior runs for that matter, continue to remain in decent agreement with the evolution and track of the mid-latitude cyclone. At this point, deterministic and ensemble members generally have the sfc and 850 mb low tracks between I-35 and I-44. Pattern recognition wise, a low track closer to I-44 generally yields a longer duration snowfall event across eastern KS. That being said, the impressive CAA behind the sfc low should allow for rapid changeover to all-snow with widespread snowfall accumulation, potentially several inches, even with a low track near I-35. Moreover, a substantial sfc pressure gradient is likely to overspread the region Sunday, potentially on the order of 10 mb per 100 miles. Mean boundary-layer wind speeds are expected near 45-50 kt, which will likely translate to sfc wind gusts near 50 MPH. The combination of moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall with these strong winds may result in blizzard-like conditions with near zero visibility Sunday. If run-to-run model consistency continues through the remainder of the week, a Winter Storm Watch will likely be needed for much of the CWA by weeks-end. Northerly midlevel flow is progged to return to the central and northern Plains as the western CONUS ridge amplifies. A surface ridge axis is expected to spill across the central US Monday into Tuesday. Depending upon snow cover, high temperatures may remain in the 20s and 30s F with lows in the 10s and 20s F. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period with southerly winds remaining less than 10 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Hennecke
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 211100 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 500 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 ...Updated Aviation Section... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 Very quiet weather will prevail today and tonight as western Kansas will remain squarely between the southern and northern branches of the polar jet stream. In the southern branch, a weak shortwave trough will be pushing across southern New Mexico and West Texas today, and the mid/high level cloud associated with this disturbance is expected to remain well to remain south of the southwest Kansas region. As a result, full insolation will be on tap again today. Winds will be very light if not dead calm at times later today as a weak MSLP gradient will be in place. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to around 60 most locations. Clear skies will prevail through the night as well with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s on a very light southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 404 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 Two storm systems will be impacting western Kansas in some fashion during this time frame. The first storm will be moving quickly across the Central Plains late Thursday Night into Friday, and given the low amplitude, highly progressive nature of this storm, precipitation chances across much of western Kansas are extremely low. Very light accumulating rain may extend as far west as Hays to Stafford or so, but even this looks like a fairly low probability. Of greater concern will be very strong winds following this storm on Friday. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph appear likely with gusts to 40 mph at times, especially late morning to early afternoon. Given the strength of the downslope momentum in the wake of this first storm, there will be essentially no impact on temperature as highs Friday are expected to be about the same as Thursday. The next storm will be much more significant in terms of higher impact weather for some portion of the Central Plains, but it also will be quite progressive. In fact, the time frame for precipitation has sped out to the Saturday Night early Sunday time frame. Given the faster moving nature of the late weekend storm, it will most likely not have a chance to dig as far southwest as earlier models runs indicated. As such, the potentially significant winter weather impacts should remain just northeast of the southwest Kansas region. That being said, we are still dealing with a Day 4-5 forecast and there is still an opportunity for the storm track to shift farther south. If it does, then we will need to increase POPs even more, as well as bump up QPF and snow amounts. Intense winds of 25 to 40 mph sustained still look pretty good behind the low late Saturday Night into much of Sunday. Gusts above 50 mph will also be possible, although the official forecast will be calling for 40-45 mph gusts Sunday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 457 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 The 12Z TAF is just an update of the previous TAF as no changes were made. Expect winds to remain below 12 knots through the entire period today and tonight with VFR prevailing in a continued dry airmass. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 33 62 42 / 0 0 0 10 GCK 60 29 61 39 / 0 0 0 10 EHA 60 31 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 60 30 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 61 31 61 43 / 0 0 0 20 P28 61 33 60 45 / 0 0 0 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid