ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 091133
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon-tonight, but confidence is low.
- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday evening through mid next
week.
- Warming trend through Friday, with a cool down this weekend.
Another cool down possible by mid-late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
PRECIPITATION:
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...The overall thunderstorm forecast
confidence today-tonight is low. 850-700mb warm advection and
moisture transport is supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development early this morning across southern SD and NE. Short-term
guidance is struggling on where to track this convection, especially
the 00z runs of the 3km NAM, NSSL-WRF, and WRF-ARW, with some of
this guidance barreling a thunderstorm complex south into the
forecast area as early as this morning. Thinking these solutions are
overdone. A more plausible scenario is increasing isolated to
scattered thunderstorm chances from the northwest this evening-
tonight, especially over central KS. If storms can manage to form,
strong instability in concert with marginal shear will support at
least an isolated severe threat, with the main threats damaging
winds and marginal hail.
THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...A potent shortwave approaching from the
west is expected to initiate scattered to numerous thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon across the western High Plains in vicinity of a
lee trough. This activity should then track east-southeast into the
forecast area during the evening-night. Strong instability along
with slightly better shear should support a hail/wind threat,
especially northwest of the forecast area. By the time activity
reaches central KS, the primary hazards should be isolated damaging
wind gusts.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A strong cold front approaching from the
north will likely be the focus for scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon-evening-night across the region. As has been the case,
strong instability and marginal shear will support a handful of
strong to severe storms, along with locally heavy rain.
THIS WEEKEND-MID NEXT WEEK...The unsettled weather pattern
continues, with off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances continuing in
vicinity of a stalled frontal zone amidst additional upper energy
approaching from the west. Thinking chances this weekend will be
best over southern KS. As we take a look ahead, deterministic
consensus progress a strong cold front into the region by Tuesday
night or Wednesday, supporting additional storm chances.
TEMPERATURES:
A building upper ridge will support warming temperatures this week,
reaching the mid-upper 90s by Thursday-Friday. Thereafter, a cold
front will support a cool down this weekend back into the 80s to
near 90 degrees. With deterministic and ensemble consensus keeping
the upper ridge at bay, along with periodic thunderstorm chances,
there is a low chance for a prolonged period of intense above
average summer heat the next 7-10 days. A significant cool down is
possible by Wednesday-Thursday of next week, as deterministic
consensus progresses a strong cold front south into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
An area of IFR to low MVFR clouds is expected to impact mainly
southeast Kansas through about mid-morning. Thinking CNU TAF
site will be impacted the most, and possibly ICT as well.
For this evening and overnight, thinking shower/storm chances
will increase across central and north-central KS, as a
thunderstorm complex or two rolls southeast off the High
Plains. Activity may tend to weaken/dissipate with southeastward
extent, but could possibly reach as far southeast as RSL, GBD,
and SLN. The primary hazard will be 40-60 mph wind gusts with
the strongest activity.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 091111
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
at least with the main threat of damaging winds.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
90s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
Northwest flow continues over the plains around a ridge centered
over the Four Corners. CAMs continue to be highly variable in
this pattern with significant run-to-run differences due to
mesoscale features driving the convection. General thinking for
today is that afternoon storms may develop along remnant outflow
boundaries, with low confidence on where/when/and even if that
will happen. Better chances and somewhat higher confidence in a
complex developing in the Nebraska panhandle associated with an
upper wave and then moving southeast this evening, impacting
areas east of Highway 25. Afternoon storms, if they develop,
will have up to 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE to work with and 30-35kts of
deep layer shear, so could produce large hail and damaging
winds. Evening storms will have less instability but slightly
more shear at 35-40kts and be mainly a wind threat. Storms
should end relatively early at around 06z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Tonight through the overnight hours, weak ridging is still in
place over the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected
to move through the area this afternoon and evening, mainly from
around 23z through 05z and the CAMs and short range models are
in pretty good agreement on this timing. These storms are
expected to fire up east of the Front Range in eastern Colorado
and progress through toward our area. There is still a decent
amount of model uncertainty regarding the severity of these
storms. Generally, the CAMs and short range models for both 06z
and 12z runs this morning showed the storms at their strongest
just west of us and in our westernmost areas before weakening as
it moves across the area. Shear looks to be a little more
limited/conditional today, despite favorable CAPE and moisture. The
environment however is still favorable for severe storms,
especially in westernmost areas, but they will be a bit more
isolated in coverage than previous nights. The main threat will
be damaging winds 60-75mph, but large hail will be possible as
well. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to
reflect this risk as well. These storms should be fairly
progressive, so the flash flood concern is very minimal, and we
are not outlooked by WPC for a flooding risk. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Looking at the long term forecast, weak ridging will persist
through the area tomorrow (Wednesday) and generally be a bit
stronger Wednesday. There will be an isolated chance of storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The chances of these storms
occurring is low (PoPs around 10-20% or less), but if they
occur, the best location to see these storms will be in the
northeasternmost areas. These storms will have the potential for
subsevere to severe gusty winds (50-60mph) primarily, but there
will be a risk for large hail as well if they occur. Reflecting
this risk, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather for just our northeastern areas.
Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving near the
area, enhancing the chances for rain and severe storms again,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. There is still
some model uncertainty regarding where the storms will begin to
fire up and how strong they will be. But the globals are in
decent agreement that around 18-21z, storms will begin to fire
up east of the Front Range and progress through our area
throughout the evening, especially as we get toward 00z through
06z. The best timing to see severe weather at least looking at
the trends will be between 21z and 03z. We are outlooked in a
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday, but would not be
surprised if the Slight Risk off to our east gets expanded into
our area in the next 1-2 days. Regardless, severe weather will
be favorable for this system with all modes of severe weather
possible at this time. Additionally, as these storms move
through, they could slow down a little, which could cause some
minor flash flooding issues due to the efficient rainfall. We
are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall to reflect
this potential. There is still quite a bit of model
uncertainty, and things could change depending on how things
progress over the next 1-2 days. We will keep monitoring for
changes.
Friday through the weekend forecast still has quite a bit of
uncertainty since it depends on how these systems progress first
over the next few days. But generally, there will be the chance
for storms daily during the afternoon and evening hours with the
potential for a few of these storms to be severe. We will keep
monitoring for changes to determine further details on the
severity and mode of these storms. MSW
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon with a low probability of impacting
either terminal. Slightly better chances this evening at KMCK
where have included a PROB30 for this evening. Gusty surface
winds will accompany any thunderstorm.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...024
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 091037
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20-30% chance for showers and storms to move
towards the area from the northwest overnight tonight.
Confidence in severe potential is low.
- Hot weather is expected through the end of the workweek. Highs
Thursday should reach the middle and upper 90s.
- Better chances for showers and storms is expected for Friday.
- A break from the hot weather is forecast for Saturday with
highs holding in the middle 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper ridge still over AZ
while the mean westerlies remain well north across the Canadian
plains. Surface obs showed broad high pressure centered over the
upper Midwest with a general southerly to southeasterly low
level wind field from the southern plains into the central high
plains.
The forecast is of low confidence due to the nature of the
environment. Models continue to show a weakly forced synoptic pattern
with a conditionally unstable airmass in place. So something like
modest low level convergence or a convectively induced MCV could
spark showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately these features are not
well handled with the models. So have tried to put together the most
likely scenario for the forecast. First off there is little or no
confidence in the NAM solution which appears to continue to suffer
from convective feedback in the model. Yesterday the NAM had a vort
max coming out of the central high plains this morning impacting the
forecast area. And much of the convection instead has been over the
southern high plains. There is a small cluster of convection over
south central SD that could provide a MCV for later convection. But
the chances of it reaching the forecast area are a little to low to
include in the forecast at this time. So started out today with a
dry forecast. There has been a signal from the HRRR the past couple
runs of storms developing this afternoon over the WY high plains and
making a run at the forecast area overnight. The only other CAMs
showing a similar idea is the two MPAS models. So have some 20 to 30
percent chance POPs in the forecast to account for this. The only
other change to the forecast this morning was to add some patchy fog
to low lying areas. Calm winds and clear skies may allow from some
radiational fog to develop. I wouldn't expect this to linger much
past 8am.
There are two frontal boundaries progged by the models that show a
better signal for organized precipitation. The first boundary looks
to move into the area early Friday, which is a slower trend from the
blend than a couple days ago. As a result the POPs have been lowered
for the daytime hours Thursday and shifted west for Thursday night.
The Day2 outlook shows a slight risk for the northwest corner of the
forecast area. Based on the timing of the boundary and models
showing bulk shear remaining between 20 and 30KT, the risk may end
staying west of the forecast area. The NAM appears to be showing
it's moist bias in boundary layer moisture and developing high CAPE
values, and so I take that prog with a grain of salt. But even then
surface based inhibition is progged to be increasing during the
overnight period. For Friday, have stayed with the blend forecast
which has POPs ranging from 40 to 60 percent. This seems reasonable
at this time frame. Depending on when storms develop and how much
destabilization can occur, there main be some risk for severe storms
through the afternoon and evening.
The second frontal boundary is progged to influence the weather on
Tuesday of next week and the NBM has chance POPs for this. Outside
of these two synoptic forcing mechanisms any little mesoscale
feature (or lack of one) could alter the forecast. So low end POPs
are spread through the forecast.
Temps are forecast to heat up today and Thursday as the thermal
ridge builds into central KS. Heat indices are forecast to remain
below 103 Thursday afternoon with some mixing of the dewpoint temps.
The heat risk and WBGT are marginal for a heat advisory as well. But
it may be worth considering if temps are forecast to get a little
hotter. The bright spot in the forecast is on Saturday when surface
high pressure pushes the boundary and likely precip chances south.
It should also bring a temporary reprieve from the 90s with highs
forecast to hold in the middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
Not much change to the going forecast. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Continue to watch convection in northern
NEB for signs a MCV develops that may spark storms this
afternoon. Latest CAMs still struggle to generate anything, so
will keep a dry forecast going.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 091001
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- MCS potential tonight mainly for areas along and east of highway
- Increasing potential of widespread storms moving across western
Kansas late Thursday night and early Friday morning
- Cooler temperatures and more rain and storms for this weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
07z upper air and surface analysis shows a 598 dm high centered over
Arizona with an upper level shortwave rotating on the northeast side
of the high moving through northwest Kansas which has led to some
spotty rain showers and storms around Dighton that are continuing to
diminish. Moisture profiles continue to show good amounts of
moisture in the lower levels across much of southwest Kansas which
will play a part in our temperature and thunderstorm forecast for
today.
Short term model forecasts for today show the 598 dm high continue
to stay basically over Arizona with the stronger westerlies rotating
along the north and northeast side from Wyoming into western Kansas.
Dew point forecast have the better mixing out of moisture mainly
along and west of highway 83 where the greatest probability of
reaching 100 degrees this afternoon will be along the Colorado
border. Later this afternoon with the left exit region of the jet
leading to upper level divergence and a shortwave developing in
central Nebraska we should see a complex of storms develop and dive
basically straight south as the upper level steering will have winds
out of the north-northwest. Given that the higher moisture will be
in our eastern zones and 700 mb temperatures should be cooler (~10-
12 C) the cap should be weaker to allow ongoing MCS development and
maintenance as the storms enter into northern Kansas. Severe weather
threat with these storms will be mainly gusty winds of 60 mph or
greater, brief heavy rain, and isolated large hail. Timeframe for
these storms will be late afternoon to sunset around Hays and then
in the evening to near midnight for areas from Dodge City to
Medicine Lodge.
Thursday the model trends have been shifting the strongest of the
heat to the west and south as a stout trough will dampen the ridge
and upper high in the desert southwest. So far many short term and
global models still think decent mixing from southwest winds will
occur and temperatures will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s.
However the NAM is trending to have less mixing and an area of
enhanced moisture ahead of the shortwave coming out of Colorado
Thursday night. Given that models haven't been handling the
moisture profiles recently and due to the higher amount of moisture
in the low levels this trend may start to show in other models.
Thursday night as the shortwave comes out of COlorado another round
of thunderstorms will develop in the front range and evolve into a
squall line that will move into western Kansas after sunset. SPC
has kept a slight risk of severe weather mainly along and north of
the K-96 corridor and wind gusts greater than 60 mph will continue
to be the threat.
For the weekend models have the stronger longwave trough moving
through the northern plains which should bring a stronger cold front
for this time of year into Kansas during the day on Friday. The
frontal boundary is showing signs of stalling out along the highway
50 corridor from Friday night into Saturday. With northwest flow
bringing in upper level lift combining with good lower level
moisture and the frontal boundary models have areas of higher QPF (>
1 inch) starting to appear in southwest Kansas with NBM
probabilities of 10% chance of getting more than 1 inch. WPC has
highlighted heavy rain potential in southwest Kansas for this
weekend and isolated flash flooding potential can't be ruled out if
these storms train along the front. The active weather pattern will
probably continue into next week as LREF upper level trends have the
upper high staying over the western CONUS and the stronger
westerlies and shortwaves continuing to move through the central and
northern plains.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
In general VFR flight category for all terminals during the time
period. Winds should increase after 15Z and especially after 18Z
to sustained around 15 kts and gusts around 25 kts. Models have
a developing thunderstorm complex in southern Nebraska in the
afternoon that will move into central Kansas and could affect
HYS between 00-03Z. Storms could contain gusty downburst winds
to 50 kts and heavy rain that could briefly drop the flight
category. Storms will be near DDC between 03-06Z so VCTS wording
will be included in the TAF.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
