ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 080459
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1059 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonal temperatures returning Monday with well above normal
temperatures expected on Tuesday.
- Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue through the
work week.
- Colder temperatures are expected to return to the area late in
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Upper-level ridging persists over the western CONUS with an upper-
level shortwave moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure has moved into the Upper Mississippi Valley
with Arctic air sitting over much of the Plains and Midwest. In our
area, breezy northerly winds continue in southeast KS with low
clouds over eastern KS. Tonight, northwesterly flow aloft will
return to our area as the upper shortwave moves farther east. The
surface high will shift east on Monday morning, allowing southerly
flow to return to the surface. Seasonal temperatures will return on
Monday afternoon with highs ranging from the lower 40s in southeast
KS to the lower 50s in central KS. A surface low will move across ND
on Tuesday afternoon as a upper-level shortwave moves into the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night.
Southerly/southwesterly winds at the surface will increase, aiding
in warming temperatures on Tuesday. This combined with warm low-
level westerly winds will lead to highs in the upper 50s in
southeast KS to the lower 60s in central KS on Tuesday afternoon.
The northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains will generally
persist through the upcoming work week, resulting in multiple
shortwaves and clipper-like systems. The shortwave over the Upper
Mississippi Valley will shift southeast on Wednesday, deepening the
upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This will usher in cooler
temperatures bringing highs on Wednesday back to seasonal averages.
Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the low 50s across much of
the forecast area. Discrepancies in model guidance start to increase
late in the work week, increasing uncertainty with temperatures. By
Thursday afternoon, the ECMWF shifts the upper low over Ontario and
Quebec farther east whereas the GFS keeps the strong low in place.
On Friday morning, another upper shortwave will move into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. The GFS is notably stronger with this wave
compared to the ECMWF, resulting in it deepening the upper low. The
GFS surges in Arctic air on Friday while the ECMWF brings it in on
Saturday. This model discrepancy yields about a 15-20 degree
temperature difference for Friday across our area. However, as we
move into Saturday, there is better model agreement for below normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
MVFR to occasional IFR cigs are lingering over the area. This
activity looks to remain in place through much of the night,
only beginning to clear for central Kansas sites between 09-12Z.
HUT and ICT will see cigs lift later in the morning, likely
between 15-16Z.
Winds have turned southerly for central Kansas sites and will
turn southerly for south-central and southeastern Kansas between
12-15Z. Winds will increase across the area to around 12 knots
during the afternoon, diminishing after 00Z under mostly clear
skies.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 080447
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
947 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind shifts as surface and upper level troughs move through.
- Several cold fronts move through, the more noteworthy one
being Thursday, which may bring in significantly cooler
weather.
- Precipitation chances return Thursday for some of the forecast
area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the West Coast and a
closed low over Southeast Canada. Between the two features
northwest flow continues. Within the flow a subtle short wave
trough was moving south through the Plains. Flurries have been
reported with a small area of precipitation ahead of the trough. At
the surface a trough was progressing eastward. Behind the trough
winds were turning to the northwest. This morning low clouds and
fog were in place ahead of the surface trough.
For the rest of today the surface trough will progress through the
forecast area. Northwest winds will become breezy over the west
half of the forecast area during the late morning and first half of
the afternoon. These winds will become light by sunset.
Tonight winds will be light and lows will be similar to last night.
Monday another subtle upper level short wave trough will progress
through the forecast area. Am not anticipating any precipitation
with this trough due to the large dew point depressions shown in the
soundings. Like today, a surface trough will progress through the
forecast area turning westerly winds to the northwest. These winds
will become breezy by late morning over East Central CO, and may
extend east to Highway 27. Further east the winds will be too high
above ground to reach the surface. With some warm air advection
occurring highs will be warmer than today.
Monday night westerly winds and higher dew points will cause lows to
be warmer than tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
Tuesday highs will be unseasonably warm ahead of the next cold front
to move through due to increased warm air advection. Westerly winds
will be breezy over the northern half of the forecast area.
Tuesday night a pre-frontal trough moves through. Further east an
upper level short wave trough moves through the Midwest. Behind the
surface trough winds turn to the northwest. Later in the night a
cold front moves through, turning winds to the north behind it. Due
to large dew point depressions shown in the soundings, am not
anticipating any precipitation with the frontal passage. North
winds may become breezy if the pressure rises are fast enough behind
the front.
Wednesday laminar upper level flow moves over the forecast area. At
the surface a low pressure and trough move onto the High Plains,
turning the winds to the west or southwest. These winds will also
bring in warmer air, thus limiting the effect of the cold front from
the prior night. During the night a very subtle upper level short
wave trough will move over the Plains. Precipitation chances
continue to remain mostly north of the forecast area.
Thursday the subtle upper level short wave trough continues to move
southeast over the Plains. Meanwhile a cold front will move through
from the north. North winds may be breezy behind the cold front in
the morning. During the night another round of precipitation may
move into the forecast area ahead of a subtle upper level short wave
trough. Models disagree with how far west this trough will shift
the jet stream. The further west scenarios bring chances for
precipitation to the forecast area, though very minimal amounts.
However, northwest upper level flow is a favorable setup for narrow
bands of moderate to heavy snow to form. Have no confidence
regarding whether this will happen for Thursday night or not at this
time range, but it is worth noting. If this does happen, the lead
time is usually a day or less of knowing if there is a potential for
a narrow band of moderate/heavy snow to form or not.
Friday and Saturday cold air advection will continue. The further
west the jet stream is positioned, the stronger the cold air
advection will end up being. If this becomes a trend highs will
continue to cool in the coming days. The 25th percentile for
highs/lows on Friday is in the 20s, with lows in the single digits,
which may end up being what happens.
Next weekend another upper level short wave trough may move through
the Plains; too far out to know where specifically it will
track.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 944 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025
VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period for each
terminal. MCK looks to have periodic 6-9sm visibilities due to
low dew point depressions, light winds and clear skies but any
fog that does occur should remain above MVFR. A period of LLWS
is also forecast for MCK starting around 11Z. LLWS is more
marginal for GLD but will watch closely over the next few hours.
A surface trough is forecast move through shifting winds to the
northwest late this morning with some gusts of 20-25 knots
before waning as the nocturnal inversion resets in and slightly
backs to a more westerly direction by the end of the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 080527
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures are expected to be on a roller coaster this week.
- Generally a dry weather pattern is forecast to continues.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Northwest flow remained over the Great Plains with a shortwave
moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest per the 19Z water vapor
imagery. Surface obs showed high pressure building into the region
with the surface ridge centered over MN.
A weak shortwave is progged to move just north and east of the
forecast area this evening with the better saturation and odds for
measurable precip looking to remain north across NEB, but there is a
small chance that some flurries are spotted across the northern
counties. This is kind of the story for the next seven days as
models show continued northwest flow with periodic shortwaves
tracking just north and east of the forecast area. Cluster analysis
of the 00Z ensembles shows the main variability among the models is
in the amplitude of the pattern. So there isn't a lot of differences
from the various solutions in the overall pattern. The main
variation is in the magnitude of the surface ridges and subtle
differences in the track of the shortwave energy. This means the NBM
is probability a good iteration to the forecast with low skill in
picking out one solution to make adjustments.
Occasional waves moving through the plains are expected to cause ups
and downs in the temps. After todays's surface high, temps are
forecast to trend warmer through Tuesday with readings in the middle
50s to near 60 Tuesday afternoon. Another Canadian high pressure
system is progged to move south into the central plains late in the
week. But this is when those differences in the strength of the
ridge show up with the GFS remaining to quickest and coldest
solution. See no reason to deviate from the NBM solution at this
point which brings a strong cool down to the forecast area for
Friday and Saturday.
Precip chances appear to be pretty slim as long as the shortwave
track remains just north and east of the area. 12Z GFS/ECMWF still
hint at some light snow Wednesday night along the NEB state line.
Probabilities for measurable precip from the NBM are in the 10 to 20
percent range.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Skies have briefly cleared at KTOP and KFOE this evening,
but MVFR ceilings are moving back in from the west. Expecting a few
more brief holes in these clouds, but once they arrive in a few
hours expect MVFR ceilings to prevail through mid-morning
before they scatter out. Otherwise, light and variable winds
tonight become more southerly at around 10 kts during the day
tomorrow.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 080513
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1113 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry pattern continues through mid-week.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures return Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of high pressure
extends southwest from the Upper Midwest down into eastern Kansas.
An ongoing drier pattern is forecast to continue early in the period
as the SREF shows little to change to the prevailing northwest flow
aloft across the region through mid-week. This and a much drier air
mass being reinforced by predominately westerly downsloping should
keep any precip chances out of western Kansas through much of the
period. Below freezing temperatures are likely again tonight as
surface high pressure exits slowly eastward through the Central
Plains, reinforcing the colder air mass across the Western Plains.
With the HREF showing a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures
dipping below 30F, look for overnight lows down into the 20s(F),
especially with light/variable winds and clearing skies. Warmer
temperatures return Monday as departing surface high pressure and
developing lee side troughing in eastern Colorado sets up southwesterly
downsloping across western Kansas, helping pushing H85 temperatures
a little above 5C. Under ample sunshine, expect widespread afternoon
highs up into the 50s(F). Aided by westerly downsloping, the warming
trend continues into Tuesday with unseasonably warm highs up into
the 60s(F).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
An area of low clouds spreading west toward Hays at 05z will be
pushed back east over the next few hours as a southwesterly
flow develops. Based on this, and the latest observation at
Hays, have decided to keep any mention of IFR ceilings out of
the Hays TAF early this morning. Will however wait until the
last minute before issuing the TAFs to ensure that these low
clouds, currently just east of the airport, remain east of the
airport. VFR conditions are expected at the Garden City, Dodge
City and Liberal airports over the next 24 hours. Southwest
winds at less than 10 knots will shift to a more westerly
direction during the afternoon as a surface boundary moves
across western Kansas.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
