ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 182322
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Stepping back a month with a March-like feel thru the weekend
with only spotty light rain chances.
- Warming trend closer to late April climo early next week.
- Better Spring-like convective chances by Day 7/Thursday and
beyond.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
A rather coolish weather pattern will prevail through the
weekend with temperatures well below climo. Low level cold
advection will continue tonight as surface ridge builds into the
area. Likewise, north winds will diminish as well with advisory
probably able to be cancelled at 4 pm expiration this afternoon.
While some patchy frost is possible early Friday morning, there
will probably be enough wind/mixing in southern Kansas and some
increase in clouds in central Kansas to stave off widespread
need for an advisory. Weak perturbations moving through the
westerly flow aloft on Friday into Saturday will ripple along
the mid-level baroclinic zone which will sag slowly southward
across the central Plains. While the low levels will remain
relatively dry, some downward saturation with lift from a second
impulse late Friday night into Saturday associated with a weak
secondary low level/surface cold front may allow for some
scattered light rain across parts of the area. Some moderation
in temperatures with more sunshine is expected on Sunday.
Temperatures look to warm closer to and slightly above climo
through early next week. The medium range shows an upper trof
dropping southeastward from far southern B.C./Alberta across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest with the associated surface cold
front moving thru Kansas Monday night/Tuesday. Modest moisture
return supports similar PoP chances. There may be better
chances for more organized precip/convection toward the end of
next week. However, timing details/chances seem to hinge on the
potential phasing of a southern stream upper low/trof over the
eastern Pacific. The GFS is quicker to do so, with said trof
affecting the central Plains/Kansas by Thursday. Even so, the
GFS/ECMWF both suggest a more active pattern with a reloading
western conus upper low/trof scenario ejecting periodic
shortwaves into the Plains beyond Day 7.
Darmofal
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
MVFR conditions will be moving out of the region tonight with
winds diminishing during the night. KCNU will be the last
terminal to clear to VFR. Winds will remain lighter through the
remainder of the TAF period with some VFR CIGs possible during
the day tomorrow as well. Otherwise, no significant aviation
weather impacts are expected.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 182007 CCA
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is likely Friday night and Saturday morning for
areas north of Interstate 70 in Colorado and north of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska.
An inch or two of wet snow will be possible in those areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Zonal flow is in place across the central CONUS with both the
polar and subtropical jets active. Tonight, will see another
weak wave move through bringing a chance for very light rain or
snow showers to northeast Colorado and eastward along the
Kansas and Nebraska border area. Similar to last night,
measurable precipitation and impacts will be minimal. Low
temperatures will be in the 30s. The very light precipitation
chances will linger in the same area through the day Friday with
mostly cloudy skies north of the Interstate but some sun
possible in the afternoon south. High temperatures will range
from the lower 50s where clouds persist in the north to the
lower 60s to the south. Friday night, will see increasing
chances for rain and snow with some phasing of disturbances in
the northern and southern streams combined with upslope flow at
the surface. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow by
around 06z in northeast Colorado and about as far east as
Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska during the overnight hours and
into Saturday morning. Snow amounts continue to increase and
now expecting 1 to 2 inches in those areas by Saturday morning.
Rain and snow chances will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon
then ending Saturday night. Temperatures will be much below
normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
On Sunday will get a break from the precipitation with an upper
ridge axis moving through. Highs will recover to the 60s to near
70 in northeast Colorado. Another weak wave will move through
Sunday night as the ridge moves out, with a chance for light
rain showers north of Interstate 70. It will also be breezy
Sunday night as a southerly low level jet develops. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s.
For Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will transitioning back to
northwest flow ahead of a ridge building over the Rockies on
Tuesday. Models show some light showers/isolated thunderstorms
both days, but confidence is rather low. Instability is
minimal on Monday afternoon and near zero on Tuesday. There does
appear to be a weak wave on Monday in the zonal flow as well as
a cold front early in the day, which may trigger a few showers
or isolated storms, but hard to find anything on Tuesday with
the building ridge. Highs will be in the 70s on Monday then 60s
on Tuesday behind the weak front. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s.
On Wednesday, will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of the next trough digging into the Desert Southwest.
Energy ejecting ahead of that system across the plains will
result in chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. There is a sliver of instability
during the afternoon currently forecast to be along the
Colorado and Kansas border area, with around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE
and deep layer shear of around 40 kts, suggesting a possible low
end severe risk. It is still several days out and confidence in
those kind of details is lacking at this point. High
temperatures will bounce back into the 70s and lows will be in
the 40s.
On Thursday, the western trough is forecast to lift into the
central plains and across the area. Depending on where the
associated surface features end up, there should be a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
and/or dry line, as well as chance for wraparound showers and
isolated thunderstorms further west. However, there is low
confidence seven days out on where these features might ultimately
reside. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Northeast surface winds will gradually decrease through
the afternoon becoming light and variable tonight. Mid clouds
will be slow to erode.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 182306
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds subside this evening with cooler temperatures lingering
through this weekend.
- There could be some frost Sunday morning impacting gardeners who
have plants in the ground.
- Light rain is possible towards central KS late Friday night
into Saturday morning; better rain chances come Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
The upper air pattern at 19Z depicts broad cyclonic flow across much
of the northern CONUS with an upper low centered over southern
Manitoba. While the surface cold front that passed through this
morning is now well southeast of the area, the 850mb front is still
lagging near the KS Turnpike where light returns can still be seen
on radar. High pressure is noted across western KS and NE. Any
remaining showers should come to an end within the next hour or so
as the 850mb boundary moves out. This should also help stratus to
scatter out from west to east as is already occurring based on
satellite imagery.
Heading into this evening and overnight, the pressure gradient
should relax as sfc ridging moves in, bringing an end to the gusty
north winds. There appears to be a very subtle perturbation that
ejects through the central Rockies into the High Plains, which
brings some mid to high cloud cover into the area after midnight. A
few models (namely the GFS and WRF-based CAMs) try to generate some
light QPF associated with this early Friday, but am skeptical due to
the fact there isn't much forcing and forecast soundings are dry
below 700-750mb. Have kept a dry forecast, but the cloud cover does
lead to some uncertainty on how far temperatures drop tonight,
particularly towards central KS. HREF probabilities indicate a
low chance for temperatures to get cold enough to develop frost
anywhere in the area, whereas the NBM has probabilities for lows
<36 degrees pushing 50% in isolated locations near the KS/NE
border. This plus incoming cloud cover led to the decision to
hold off on any frost headlines for counties near the state
line, but if temperatures drop faster this evening than
currently forecast, an advisory may need to be considered.
Temperatures Friday look to reach the upper 50s to low 60s with
lighter winds in place. Another weak upper disturbance is progged to
bring light rain to mainly western locations late Friday night into
Saturday morning. PoPs are limited to 10-40% with QPF of only a few
hundredths. The cloud cover should preclude frost formation Saturday
morning, but cooler air Sunday morning looks to bring lows into the
30s across the entire area. Questions remain on how cloud cover will
impact those temperatures as well, but northern locations stand the
better chances of seeing frost/freeze conditions so this remains the
main day to watch for headlines.
Low-level flow returns to the south/southwest by Monday, resulting
in moderating temperatures with highs reaching the 70s for the first
part of the work week. A shortwave moving through the Upper Midwest
looks to bring a weak cold front through the area Monday, bringing
our next best chance (50-60%) for showers and storms. The better
upper support appears to be well north of the area, however, so time
will tell what kind of impacts we see in our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period. North winds in
the 11-14kt range with gusts to 25kts expected subside by 02Z to
less than 10kts. Light north to northeast winds are expected for
the rest of the period after 05Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 182031
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated Fire risk on Friday afternoon, especially west.
- Rain chances (40-60%) return Friday night into early
Saturday.
- Elevated to near critical fire risk expected Monday Afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Temperatures will get cold overnight, with many models
supporting low 30s in the far western counties, to around 40
degrees in the warmest area of the forecast area (Barber and
Pratt counties). Although temperatures might reach or even
exceed colder than freezing out around Hamilton county, the
climatological average last freeze hasn’t been quite reached yet
in the western sections of the forecast area. Additionally, in
the eastern counties where the average frost and freeze
dates have been reached, the clouds that are going to spill in
from the south overnight will preclude any frost headlines
Tonight as temperatures plummet into the mid and upper 30s.
With high pressure setting into the Central Plains, winds will
veer overnight becoming light before settling on a light to
breezy southeast trajectory on Friday afternoon (light around
Stafford and more breezy/gusty around Elkhart). Clouds and cold
advection limiting the highs to the 50s across most of the area
this afternoon despite late afternoon clouds breaking up will be
followed by warmer 60s on Friday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Friday night gets interesting as the NBM and forecast slight
small precipitation chances (20% south to 55 % north) as a weak
wave ejects from the Rockies interacting with a colder airmass
over the central Plains. A lack of instability will result in
mainly rain vs. thunderstorms. The wave and reinforcing cold
front will lead to a cooler day yet on Saturday where potential
exists for the highs not to exceed the 40s in the west central
Kansas counties. Still more probable are 50s over most of the
area for afternoon highs under plenty of residual cloud cover
that might linger into much of Sunday. Again near freezing to
possible freezing temps in the far west are expected for
Saturday morning. With clearing afternoon sky and increased
insolation Sunday afternoon, temperatures should warm back up
into the 60s, which most of the models are in agreement on; as
well as in agreement on Monday’s intense warmup back into the
80s most everywhere west of a Wakeeney-Meade line. A warm
frontal boundary (return of steep low level lapse rates and warm
advection/southerly flow) in the general area is the likely
impetus for potential low probability (20-40% chance)
thunderstorms in the late Monday into Tuesday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Gusty north winds will gradually lose momentum this afternoon
as the surface pressure gradient weakens and the surface
pressure increases. Still, through mid afternoon expect gusts in
excess of 30 knots at DDC and HYS while the gusts might be a
bit weaker at GCK and LBL. A marked drop off in wind speeds will
be most noticeable after about 00 UTC (LAMP guidance drops the
sustained wind speed to an average 10-15 knots with no gusts at
all terminals.
Clouds-wise, the GOES satellite is showing some thinning
already while area METARs have generally reported about
1500-2000 ft ceilings, with the exception of HYS which has
already scattered out. The other sites will also scatter out as
the afternoon wears on.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Fire weather risk is generally limited this afternoon as the
cooler temperatures have capped the relative humidity from
falling below the 40s and 30 percent ranges. That will change
on Friday afternoon as the temperatures reach back into the 60s.
Any gusts into the 20s will result in some elevated fire
weather conditions as relative humidity values drop into the 20
to 30 percent range. Fires can escape control more easily and
become difficult to contain.
Monday may bring back the elevated to near critical conditions
in the western counties.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell
