ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 191128
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler today compared to the last several days with highs in
the 60s. After a brief warm-up Monday, another cold front
will bring cooler readings for Tuesday.
- Next chance for rain will arrive Thursday and continue through
at least Saturday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Sharp upper trough currently extends from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Ozark region with some additional upper energy
about ready to come onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, cold front extends from far eastern MO into the
Arklatex region.
Upper pattern will remain very progressive, and by the
afternoon hours, the upper trough will extend from the Great
Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. At the same time, the western
CONUS shortwave will be digging across the Great Basin. Even
though highs today will be some of the coolest we have seen in
a couple weeks, thanks to good downslope conditions, will only
be a few degrees below seasonal normals. Shortwave trough will
continue to track quickly east and by early Mon afternoon will
be sliding across the Northern/central Plains. This will allow
another Pacific cold front to push through Mon afternoon into
the evening hours. Ahead of the front, above normal highs will
return to the area Monday with readings back into the 70s. This
will be short-lived as cold front knocks temps back down below
normal for Tuesday.
Models remain consistent in tracking a compact upper impulse
across Southern CA on Wed and into the Central Rockies on
Thursday. This will bring an increase in shower and storm
chances for Thursday and especially Thursday evening. This
feature is forecast to track across KS on Fri into Fri evening,
keeping fairly high precip chances around into Sat morning. The
model trends have been to slow the eastward progression of this
impulse down with each run. So this will be something to keep an
eye on with upcoming forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Main aviation concern will be some low level speed shear late
tonight.
Cold front moved through the area last evening and is now down
across southern TX. Surface high is currently working in from
the west and will allow clear skies to remain in place through
the next 24 hours. Northwest/west winds will gradually come
around to the southwest this afternoon with a few gusts
possible. South winds will not drop off much this evening and
just off of the surface, low level jet will ramp-up. This will
provide some low level speed shear after 06z across south
central KS with sw winds by 2,000ft in the 45-50kt range.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 191109
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
509 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 10 AM MDT this
morning for western portions of the area. A Frost Advisory
remains in effect until 11 AM CDT for eastern portions of the
area.
- Strong NW winds will accompany and follow a cold frontal
passage early Monday morning. Sustained winds at 25-40 mph and
gusts to 45-55 mph may create difficult travel conditions for
high profile vehicles during both the morning and afternoon
hours. Localized reductions in visibility assoc/w blowing dust
may further aggravate travel difficulties and reduce air
quality.
- Strong NW winds and dry conditions may result in rapid and
uncontrolled fire growth on Monday, should any fires develop.
Outdoor burning is not advised. A Fire Weather Watch remains
in effect on Monday for eastern Colorado, where RH readings
may fall below 15%.
- Freezing temperatures are possible Tuesday morning, mainly in
eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Early this morning, a high pressure system is moving over the
TX/OK Panhandle, which is keeping the sky clear. Temperatures,
before midnight, have started dipping below freezing in various
locations across the area. However, temperatures will likely
start stabilizing by around 9Z for most of the CWA as
southwesterly winds are expected to slightly increase to around
8-10 kts. That's not a lot, but it should be enough to keep the
boundary layer mixed up and prevent temperatures from falling
any lower than 28 degrees.
Temperatures should start warming up fairly quickly after
sunrise, any the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisories are
projected to expire on time, potentially a little early. Winds
will start picking up even more after sunrise. South-
southwesterly winds are forecast throughout the day today with
sustained speeds around 10-20 kts and gusts up around 25, maybe
30 kts. Temperatures should warm into the mid 70s today.
Tonight, we will have another low pressure system approaching
the area from the northwest. A cold front is expected to start
moving into the northwestern CWA just before sunrise.
Temperatures are expected to remain notably warmer tomorrow
night, only cooling into the mid 40s, due to winds overnight
keeping the layer mixed as that next low approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Monday: An upper level trough presently moving ashore the
Pacific Northwest will amplify as it progresses eastward across
the northern Rockies (tonight) and Northern Plains (Mon). An
associated mid-latitude cyclone in the lee of the northern
Rockies will track ENE across the Dakotas (tonight) prior to
slowing/intensifying over Minnesota (Mon). A cold front
attendant the aforementioned cyclone will surge southeastward
through the Tri-State area Monday morning (~10-15Z Mon).
Guidance suggests that the strongest low-level cold advection
and surface pressure rises will occur a few hours on either side
of sunrise (~10-17Z Mon).. the onset of which could be
accompanied by a short (~1-3 hour) period of strong NW winds
(25-40 mph G 45-55 mph). Either way, modest low-level cold
advection will persist into the afternoon, when deep vertical
mixing (~6,000 to 8,000 ft AGL, up to ~700 mb) will assist in
transporting ~30-45 knot NW flow to the surface. While guidance
varies w/regard to the magnitude of flow within the mixed-layer
during the afternoon.. there appears to be general agreement
that the relative strongest [afternoon] winds (~25-40 mph G
45-55 mph) will be in northeast CO and adjacent KS-NE border
counties. Expect highs in the 60's.
Tuesday: Expect clear skies, dry conditions and 10-20 mph NW
(east) to SW (west) winds.. as the (by then) mature and
vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone over the Upper Midwest
resumes a progressive (albeit slow) eastward motion across the
Upper Great Lakes.
Wednesday: Strengthening synoptic subsidence on the western
fringe of a deep, broad amplifying trough /profound cyclonic
flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS will aid in the development
and amplification of an upper level ridge over the Rockies/High
Plains. Expect clear skies, dry conditions, light winds and a
modest warming trend.
Thursday-Saturday: Long range guidance indicates that a
stalled/cut-off low offshore the southern Pacific Coast (600
miles offshore Baja, CA at 09Z this morning) will meander ashore
southern CA (Wed) and track ENE-NE to the 4-Corners (Wed
night).. then decrease in forward speed and slowly progress east
across Central/Southern Plains Thu-Fri. Expect above average
cloud cover, above average precipitation chances and near to
slightly below average high temps. Average highs this time of
year are ~65F.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025
GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF
period. Light WSW winds will back to the SW-SSW and increase to
15-25 knots within a few hours after sunrise.. at the onset of
diurnal heating/mixing. SSW winds are expected to decrease to
12-17 knots by early afternoon.. as a surface trough in CO
progresses east toward the KS border and the MSLP gradient
weakens. S-SSW winds will weaken to ~10 knots after sunset and
veer to the WSW late this evening/overnight. Winds will abruptly
shift to the NW and strengthen to 20-30 knots in assoc/w a cold
frontal passage at-or-around sunrise Monday morning.. at the
very end of the 12Z TAF period.
MCK: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF
period. Light WSW winds will back to the SW-SSW and increase to
~15 knots late this morning (~15-16Z) and persist through the
afternoon. Winds will back to the S and decrease to ~10 knots
after sunset, then veer to the SW-WSW after midnight. Winds will
abruptly shift to the NW and strengthen to 20-30 knots in
assoc/w a cold frontal passage at-or-around sunrise Monday
morning.. at the very end of the 12Z TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Today: Watching for some locally critical fire weather
conditions across eastern Colorado this afternoon. Winds are
forecast to be from the southwest gusting 20-30 mph from the
late morning hours through the afternoon where the higher gusts
are favored but will see a gradual decline through the
afternoon. Due to the low confidence in 3 or more hours
occurring of critical conditions will forego any fire weather
highlights.
Monday: A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect on for Yuma, Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties in eastern CO. A fair amount of
uncertainty persists with regard to whether or not RH readings
will fall to/below 15% for an appreciable amount of time during
the afternoon.. especially east of the CO-KS border. Regardless
of whether or not Red Flag Criteria is met, strong NW winds and
dry conditions (RH readings 15-25% over the entire area) are
apt to pose a challenge to first responders.. should any fires
develop.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
Frost Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ003-004-015-
016-028-029-042.
CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ252>254.
NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg/Vincent
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 191033
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunny and cool weather is expected into the first half of next
week.
- The next chance for rain is forecast for Thursday night and into
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
A shortwave trough was passing to the east of the forecast area per
the 07Z water vapor imagery. Upstream was another trough moving on
shore over the Pacific Northwest. Surface obs showed high pressure
centered over western KS with cooler and dryer with the surface
ridge.
There is pretty good agreement in the models with the overall
pattern into the first half of the workweek. A general northwest
flow is progged with the upper trough to the northwest passing
through the plains on Monday. The progressive nature of the pattern
is forecast to limit the time for moisture to return ahead of the
next front Monday. So this next wave is expected to pass through the
area dry in spite of some decent forcing and vertical motion. It
will have the effect of keeping temps closer to seasonal normals
though as another surface high builds south through the plains. And
with models showing a quicker timing to the cold front Monday, have
trended highs a little cooler across north central KS where winds
are forecast to shift to the northwest by mid-day.
A second upper level wave is progged to move into the central plains
late in the week. There are differences in the strength of the
closed upper low, but all of the operational solutions show a
similar idea of a surface low passing mainly south of the forecast
area with wrap around moisture potentially lifting over the forecast
area. Think the POPs from the NBM are reasonable with chances
generally in the 40 to 50 percent range. Timing of the wave is the
main question and the spread in the ensembles have POPs in the
forecast through Saturday. Think this window for precip will likely
shrink in the coming days as models converge on a solution.
Operational runs suggest the most likely timing for precip will be
from Thursday evening through Friday evening. Models don't show much
warm air advection in low levels through the week. So temps should
remain around seasonal normals for this time of October.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Dry air and subsidence is expected to keep VFR conditions in place.
There is a low potential for wind shear tonight as a 45KT LLJ
develops. However models show a strengthening pressure gradient and
turbulent mixing of the boundary layer. So will not include wind
shear in the forecast. Later shifts to reevaluate this potential.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 191010
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning
- Gusty northerly winds Monday afternoon
- Medium chances (40-60%) for widespread rainfall late week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
08z surface observations depict relatively light northwest
winds around a surface high pressure system centered over
eastern Colorado. This feature will continue to move into the
central Plains throughout the morning, where light winds, clear
skies, and chilly temperatures will continue. As a result, with
temperatures in the middle 30s, areas of frost look probable.
Frost Advisory remains in effect, and has been expanded a bit
eastward, until 15z.
Vigorous trough will swing out into the northern Plains late
Sunday and into Monday. Cyclogenesis is anticipated east of the
high terrain in the WY/SD/MT border region. The associated
cyclones cold front will swing southward into the central High
Plains during the day on Monday. With its passage, expecting
winds to get quite gusty. Latest NBM probabilities of wind gusts
over 30 mph are rather high (50-80%) across nearly the entire
FA, with probabilities of greater than 40 mph (20-30%) for
north and northwest counties. Moisture will be limited, so no
precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front.
Into the later half of the upcoming week, the next system of
note is the current cut-off low that is situated well off the
southwest coast of California. It isn't until the influence of
the next Pacific trough that will eventually pick it and move
eastward. In response to the approaching trough and low
pressure development across the northeastern New Mexico to
southwest Kansas vicinity, Gulf moisture will advect northward
into the High Plains. Exact northward extent of mentioned
moisture is a bit uncertain until we get a better picture on
a more precise location of the developing surface low.
Though even with a track just south of the FA, could still lend
to at least the chance for moderate precipitation.
Nevertheless, NBM POPs maintaining 40-60%, with a higher
emphasis east of Highway 283 at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Light winds this morning will give way to gusty winds later
this afternoon. Expect winds to shift from westerly to more of a
southerly component through the morning and into the afternoon.
Winds will be sustained 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 25
knots at times. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-043-044-
062-063-074>077-084>087.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for KSZ061.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett
