Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 272335
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong cold front to move through Saturday along with a chance
at some light rain changing to snow over central KS. Strong
north winds likely behind the front on Saturday and Saturday
evening.
- Single digit wind chills Saturday night into Sunday morning.
- Confidence is increasing in the potential for measurable
snowfall on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low rotating across the
Eastern Great Lakes region with another upper impulse approaching
the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure extends through
the Plains.
Upper impulse approaching the Pacific Northwest will continue
tracking southeast tonight into Fri morning and by early Fri evening
will be moving into the Central Rockies. Strong low level warm
advection ahead of the wave will result in rapidly increasing 850-
700mb moisture transport which will ramp-up rain chances,
especially across southeast KS by early Fri evening. By 12z Sat,
surface low will be located over northwest OK with a strong
cold front extending from far northeast KS through western KS.
Through early Sat morning, all snow chances will be confined to
areas north and northeast of the forecast area, mainly across
eastern Nebraska into IA and northern MO. Surface low will quickly
tack east and by 18z Sat will be centered over western MO. The GFS
has the low further south compared to the NAM and other short term
models. However, the differences in the low placement shouldn't have
too much of an affect on the forecast. As colder air spills south
Sat, some of the precip across northern KS may briefly change over
to snow, or a rain-snow mix. The most likely time frame for
central KS to see some snow would be in the 12z-15z range,
before the better precip chances push northeast. Confidence
remains high that we are not looking for any travel impacts due
to snow accumulation. The only impact that appears possible
would be reduced visibility along I-70 Sat morning due to the
light snow combined with strong north winds.
Most noticeable impact this system will bring will likely be the
rapid change in much colder air. Not only will much colder air be
spilling south on Sat, strong north winds will produce wind chills
in the single digits Sat night across the entire area. Strong
surface high will be over the area on Sunday with highs still
looking to be around 20 degrees below normal as they struggle to make
it above freezing.
Attention will then turn to another shortwave impulse that will be
digging across the Central Great Basin on Sun and then into the
Southern Rockies by Mon morning. It is starting to look like this
system will have a better chance to bring measurable snowfall to
the area compared to the one on Sat. This is mainly because a very
cold airmass will remain be in place, making any precip that falls
all snow. Last few runs of both the ECMWF and GFS have been
consistent in showing an area of mid level frontogenesis along
with the bulk of the lift occurring in the dendritic zone. At
this time it looks like most of the snow would fall in the 12z
Mon to 21z Mon time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Light winds
will transition to the east throughout the overnight hours.
Southeasterly winds will start to increase Friday morning,
shifting to southerly by Friday afternoon with gusts up to 25
kts. High clouds will also increase Friday morning with mid-
level clouds settling in to the area by Friday afternoon.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...GC
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 272324
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
424 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
cold frontal passage early Sat morning, strongest (30-40 G 55
mph) between sunrise and noon Sat. A few snow showers may
accompany the frontal passage early Sat morning (prior to
sunrise).
- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.
- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 133 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
Today-Tonight: Pleasant/benign weather for Thanksgiving.
Synoptic subsidence in the wake of an amplifying trough
(downstream over the eastern CONUS) and a modest upper level
ridge approaching from the west will foster light winds, near-
average temps and mostly clear skies.. aside from occasional
bouts of cirrus in NW flow aloft.
Friday: An upper level wave moving ashore the Pacific Northwest
(today) will progress east toward the northern Rockies
(tonight), then abruptly dig SSE toward the central Rockies
(Fri) -- after an interaction with shortwave energy progressing
rapidly S-SSE through British Columbia/Alberta -- fostering the
development of a broad lee cyclone in CO. Southerly low-level
flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the developing
cyclone will foster a modest warming trend with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, coolest in eastern / lower elevation
portions of the area where a shallow cooler airmass will persist
into the afternoon and low ceilings/stratus may develop beneath
pervasive upper level cloud cover / cirrus.
Friday night-Sat night: Guidance continues to indicate that the
aforementioned upper wave will dig SSE to/near the OK Panhandle
(Fri night).. then rapidly progress east (broad lee cyclone, in
tow) across the Central/Southern Plains on Sat. The progressive
nature of the cyclone and the Tri-State area's position
relative to the upper wave and cyclone suggests a low overall
potential for precipitation in the NWS Goodland county warning
area. Guidance presently suggests 2 distinct periods in which
light precipitation could develop: [1] light rain prior to the
cold frontal passage Friday evening (~00-06Z Sat) -- as the
upper level wave digs SSE through WY-CO, most likely near the
Tri-State border area and [2] snow/showers coincident with the
cold frontal passage around or shortly before sunrise (~09-12Z)
Saturday -- during a fleeting period of strong low-level
frontogenesis, mainly in southwest NE and adjacent KS border
counties. From a hazardous weather standpoint, strong northerly
winds in the wake of the front are/remain the primary concern.
Strong cold advection and abrupt pressure rises in the wake of
the Arctic front will at least partially coincide with diurnal
heating.. between sunrise and noon Saturday.. when forecast
soundings indicate ~35-45 knot northerly low-level flow will be
present within a shallow (surface to 3,000 ft AGL) mixed layer.
If this is the case, one would expect sustained winds ~30-40 mph
and gusts up to ~55 mph. From a prior experience standpoint, in
the context of an abrupt Arctic cold frontal passage, guidance
generally tends to under-do wind.. at onset, in particular.
Either way, guidance indicates that northerly winds will weaken
during the afternoon and rapidly diminish after sunset Saturday
evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential
for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave
traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains
late Sun into Mon. At this range, confidence in precipitation
coverage, location and amounts cannot be ascertained with much
confidence. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the
system suggests relatively low precipitation amounts (sub-
warning criteria).. and the synoptic setup/pattern suggests
light winds.
Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests a warming/moderating
trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region / drains
downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return flow
pattern ensues -- followed by a cooling trend assoc/w another
cold frontal passage mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 417 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected over KGLD and KMCK through the 00Z
TAF period. Cloud cover is expected to become more overcast
over the next 2-3 hours over the KMCK terminal brining in broken
to overcast ceilings for the remainder of the period. There is
a chance for ceilings to briefly be MVFR criteria for KMCK from
17-21Z Friday. KGLD is expected to be along the edge of the
cloud cover causing scattered to broken ceilings to stick
around. Winds overnight will be light at 5-10 kts out of the
southeast, increasing to 10-15 kts Friday afternoon out of the
south-southeast.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...024/Vincent
AVIATION...KMK
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 272309
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
509 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will develop Friday night with mix of rain and wet snow
on Saturday. Any accumulation would be minor (half inch or
less on grassy areas) and mainly confined to the far northern
counties.
- A colder storm system will bring a chance for snow to the
area Sunday night and Monday. This system would have a better
chance to produce accumulating snow with potential travel
impacts across the area Monday.
- Unsettled pattern will persist through next week with colder
than avg temps expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
The forecast focus remains on the storm system that will impact
the area Friday night into Saturday with a second colder storm
with a chance for snow later Sunday night through Monday.
A subtle weak wave combined with 850-700mb WAA appeared to be
responsible for the morning clouds and flurries that have since
dissipated as the wave departs and shallow lift weakens. Light
winds will become southeast tonight as the atmosphere responds
to the wave that is now moving through the PAC NW and will dive
ESE toward the area Friday.
In advance of the wave WAA/lift should produce more mid cloud on
Friday with stronger/deeper lift expected to focus to our
northeast. There could be some sprinkles/flurries across the
north during the afternoon however chances appear low and there
would be no impacts. Stronger lift and precip will develop Fri
night with strong WAA/LLJ expected across the area which should
keep temps above freezing and limit precip to rain/drizzle most
areas as the low develops across southwest KS and tracks ENE.
This is an energetic system with 110kt jet digging into the
backside of the 500mb trough so expect widespread precip to
develop overnight into early Saturday. Critical thicknesses
and Tw fcsts suggest rain until around 12z Sat when some mix of
rain and wet snow could evolve across central/north central KS.
The window of max lift/precip appears to be 09-15Z saturday
when the heaviest rain/precip should fall. It will be a
progressive system so the time window of any wet snow mix would
be small and with warm temps to begin with this should limit
any accums. All in all our previous forecast appears on track
with rain mixing with or changing to wet snow with some minor
(less than one half inch) accums possible on grassy areas across
central and northern KS with perhaps a trace along the I-70
corridor from Alma east to Lawrence and southward.
All in all it will be a miserable day to be outdoors on Saturday
with windy and colder conditions expected to develop by
afternoon as the low departs with a quick end to the precip
expected from west to east. Colder air moves in for Sat night
and Sunday.
Any break on Sunday will be short lived as the next storm system
and associated lift will overspread the region later Sunday
night and Monday bringing a chance for snow to the area. This
system may actually have more of an impact on travel since it
will be colder with snow potentially accumulating on surfaces
including roadways on Monday. Stay tuned for more on this system
as we head into the weekend.
Colder than avg conditions will remain in place for much of next
week as the region remains in troughing aloft with a high degree
of uncertainty with regard to precip chances next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Mostly clear skies and light/variable winds will continue
overnight. During the day tomorrow, winds become more southeasterly
and increase to around 10 kts. Clouds will also steadily thicken,
mainly high clouds during the morning but lowering to around 3-6 kft
by early evening. Rain is likely to hold off until after the end
of this TAF period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 280002
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder and windy conditions on Saturday
- Small probability of precipitation mainly in our northeast zones
Saturday morning
- Medium range models indicating snow with light accumulation
potential on Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
19Z upper air analysis shows northwest flow in the central plains
with a digging trough in the eastern CONUS and a ridge in the
intermountain west. At the surface west to northwest winds in the
boundary layer combining with diurnal heating has moderated the
colder air mass across southwest Kansas to around 2-5 (C) in the 850
mb layer.
Tonight we should see the ridge in the west dampen a little with a
shortwave coming in from the west over the Colorado rockies which
will deepen a surface low through the night. Towards Friday through
the mid to late morning we should see increasing winds out of the
southwest and good moisture advection as dewpoints increase into the
40s. This should lead to more widespread mid layer cloud cover
through the day across our central and eastern zones. As the low
moves east the area of more intense winds should occur mainly along
and east of an Elkhart to WaKeeney line with wind gusts reaching to
around 30 kts by early afternoon. With more cloud cover in the east
I kept temperatures in the lower 50s and with a little more sun near
the COlorado border highs should near 60.
Saturday a more stout shortwave moves int from Colorado during the
night pushing a surface low into southwest Kansas by 06Z Saturday
morning. Given how the short term models are in good agreement that
the track of the surface low will be mainly through southwest Kansas
and the better upper level lift will be to the northeast most of the
area should stay dry with the exception of areas around Hays seeing
light rain develop around 12Z. As the cold front passes we should
see winds increase rapidly and temperatures stay steady to slowly
falling through the day. Any rain that is falling during the mid
morning hours will transition to a wintry mix however accumulations
are not anticipated as the time frame for snow potential is brief
(~3 hours). Winds behind the cold front will become intense as RAP
models is the most aggressive with the pressure gradient and is
hinting at 40-45 kt gusts during the day. I opted to increase wind
gusts to a 50/50 NBM 50th/90th percentile to reflect wind gusts
closer to this scenario.
Sunday should be fairly cold with a 1034 mb high passing through
western Kansas during the day and we should see surface winds switch
to the east combining with increasing clouds and 850 mb temps around
-8 (C) highs will struggle to get into the upper 20s.
Monday's system is continuing to show a longwave trough moving from
northwest to southeast and the corresponding surface low developing
in northeast New Mexico by mid morning. Temperatures from the
surface through the mid levels will be below freezing and the area
of lift in the dendritic zone is starting to show a better area of
bands of snow from southwest through south central Kansas. POPs
have increased slightly to 30% and probabilities of > 1 inch of snow
range around 50% from the various long term ensembles. So far winds
look to be on the lighter side and at this point this system would
lead to some minor winter weather impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Low pressure developing on the high plains will result in
increasing south winds during the period. Between 12 and 15z
a 45kt southerly low level jet will result in low level wind
shear. Only some mid level cloud AOA040 can be expected given
the warm advection pattern. However, there is a small chance
(30% or less) of MVFR CIGS around 3kft during mid-day.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch
