ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 042041
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures are likely for Friday and Saturday
with colder temperatures forecast for Sunday before above
normal temperatures return early next week.
- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Currently, there is a weak upper-level shortwave over Kansas with
upper troughing over the southwest US approaching the Central
Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits over the
Midwest, stretching into Kansas and Oklahoma.
Tonight, low temperatures will remain slightly below normal with
lows in the lower 20s. On Friday, low-level downslope flow will help
moderate temperatures bringing highs into the upper 40s and lower
50s. Warmer temperatures will continue into Saturday as low-level
WAA keeps highs on Saturday afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
By Saturday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave trough over SD/NE
will move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. The associated
surface low will push south through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into
eastern Kansas by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will
advect some moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, low
chances of drizzle will be possible late Saturday night in southeast
KS. However, at this time, the ECMWF is the most optimistic model
regarding this solution. Better precipitation chances will stay
northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push a
cold front through our area by Sunday morning, bringing in another
surge of cold air. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s
on Sunday with breezy northerly winds.
Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in
our area Monday and Tuesday as weak upper-level ridging sits over
the western CONUS. The next upper-level trough is progged to move
into the Northern Plains Tuesday night. Its associated surface low
will move east from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night, keeping precipitation chances out of our area.
A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures
return with highs in the 40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal
850 mb temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return
of above normal surface temperatures. Highs are expected to range
from the lower 50s in southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and
south-central KS on Tuesday, which is about 10 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Light winds and VFR will prevail across the area over the
upcoming 24-hr period. A few flurries may impact southern KS
through early/mid afternoon near the OK state line but no impact
to our terminals is anticipated.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 041712
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1012 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.
- Very low chances for snow Saturday across northern portions of
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025
A period of subtle moisture advection coupled with an increase in
700mb dry air led to periods of freezing drizzle across the area
during the early morning hours. We have just enough dry air
advection in the 850-800mb layer that a subtle warm nose has formed
leading to the freezing precipitation. 03Z RAP suggests any low
level omega should end around 08Z thusly ending any
precipitation potential. 285 and 290K isentropic analysis also
suggests subsidence to be on the increase as well during this
time. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also forecast primarily
across western portions of the area, with the potential for
localized dense fog as well. Any dense fog looks to be kept
along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Any fog
potential looks to end around 12-14Z as winds become more
southwesterly as a surface trough moves across the area.
Stratus however is forecast to linger through the late afternoon
hours making it a slow warm up for most.
As the trough continues to move through the area and clouds
clear breezy winds are forecast to ensue sustained around 15-20
mph is forecast with gusts of 25-30 mph. Winds are forecast to
be in the "furnace" wind direction which climatologically
supports temperatures in the upper forecast echelon so have
nudged temperatures up some. I wasn't as aggressive as I
normally would be given the new snowfall potentially mitigating
how warm we can get. Sunny skies are then forecast to ensue for
the afternoon before some scattered to broken mid level clouds
move in again for the evening and overnight hours.
Friday, surface troughing continues across the area. An increase
in in 700-500mb moisture occurs as well. RAP cross sections show
modest omega around 10-12 microbars in this layer as well but
with dry air in the low levels virga is most likely to occur
although some sprinkles or flurries may mix in. The NAM however
has a deeper and moist profile but the forcing is I did nudge
temperatures down a few degrees as well as most GEFS ensemble
members keeps colder 850mb temperatures further west than
deterministic guidance does. High temperatures for the day
remain forecast in the low to mid 50s across the area. Breezy
winds may also develop as well with the trough gusting to 25
mph.
Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to develop as yet
another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and a
surface low developing across northwestern portions of the forecast
area. 850mb winds are forecast to intensify as the low deepens with
sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The NAM
has the low a little further north which would increase the
magnitude of the winds whereas the GFS has is more over the area
and broad which would lessen the winds some. Current forecast
is tailored more towards the ECMWF which is a combo of the two
with a bit of a more northern track but a broad low. Will also
need to watch for some spotty rain or snow showers as well as
some sporadic 700mb frontogenesis through the morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025
The long-term will be plagued with northwesterly flow allowing
multiple shortwave troughs to move through the region. The first
wave could move through around 18Z Monday to 6Z Tuesday and a second
one within 24 hours. These shortwaves look to be fairly dry, so
precipitation is not likely. However, if southerly 850 mb advection
taps into more moist air, this could quickly change and will need to
be monitored.
Our next big trough is looking to move into the area some time
between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday noon. There is a better
signal that precipitation will occur with this system as low-level
moisture will have increased. Currently, PoPs are focused on the
northwestern CWA, reaching about 20, while the northwestern 3/4 of
the CWA is sitting around 10 PoPs. Depending on if the precipitation
occurs overnight or during the day will decide if snow or rain will
be the dominate P-type.
Sunday's high temperatures are a bit uncertain as the exiting trough
will heavily influence them. NBM currently shows the eastern edges
of the CWA remaining in the low to mid 30s while the western half of
the CWA warms into the mid to upper 40s. If the trough exits faster,
temperatures will be in the 40s across the area, but if it's slower
or takes a more westerly path, cooler temperatures will spread
westward. Beyond Sunday, temperatures are forecast to warm into the
50s while lows will generally cool into the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025
IFR ceilings will persist an hour or so into this afternoon at
both KGLD and KMCK before clearing. The remainder of the TAF
period will be VFR with diminishing surface winds after sunset.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 042042
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures moderate Friday and Saturday before another cool-down
on Sunday, then another warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday.
- There remains a low chance for light rain/snow Saturday night
in northeast KS; otherwise weather looks dry through the
middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
In the upper levels, broad troughing encompasses much of the CONUS
with the northern stream energy pushing through the Northeast and
the southern stream trough axis extending from Mexico's Baja
Peninsula up through the southern Rockies. An upper ridge is sitting
off the coast of the Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface, expansive
high pressure has slowly been moving east today and is now centered
in the IA/IL/WI vicinity early this afternoon. This high will
continue to slide east tonight, allowing southerly low-level flow to
spread east across the area as well. Despite clear skies, there
should be just enough WAA and just enough wind off the surface to
keep temperatures from getting as cold as they did this morning,
though it will still be on the chilly side to start out Friday. Lows
are forecast in the upper teens to low 20s, followed by highs
approaching average values in the 40s thanks to the warmer air
advecting into the area. A subtle disturbance passes through the
northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, which brings a weak
sfc trough through the area, but this looks to have little impact on
us aside from high clouds and a brief wind shift back to the north
Friday night.
Southerly low-level flow reestablishes itself Saturday ahead of the
next embedded shortwave, which may have slightly more impact on our
forecast area. Models have been back and forth on how far south this
system and any associated precipitation will be. Overall the best
synoptic forcing for ascent looks to be northeast of the area into
Nebraska and especially Iowa, but the wave could still track south
enough for northern parts of the area to see some brief rain and/or
snow Saturday evening. NBM probabilities for measurable snow are
generally 15% or less, with PoPs only slightly better at 20% or
less. Even these "higher" numbers are mostly concentrated in Brown
County with a dropoff as you go southwest. What is more certain is
the incoming cold air behind the system. Lows Sunday look similar to
what we should see tomorrow, but with highs topping out in the mid
20s to mid 30s.
A general warming trend then ensues as high pressure from Sunday
departs east. By Tuesday, a downslope component to the low-level
winds should help boost temperatures further, and most of the area
has a good shot at seeing 50 degrees! There could be another system
within the northwest flow aloft that brings another cold front
through the area mid-week, but large temperature spreads (20+
degrees) by Thursday lead to low confidence in how impactful that
front may be and how long the warmth will last.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
VFR conditions will continue with clear skies and light winds.
Winds are in the process of switching towards the south as of
forecast issuance, and should remain there through most of the
period. A weak boundary will allow winds to turn more to the
southwest at the very end of this period and beyond.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 042000
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
for the next 10-15 days.
- Afternoon temperatures moderate back to near normal early
December normals Friday and Saturday.
- The next dry cold front will arrive Saturday night with
elevated north winds, followed by much colder air Sunday.
- Strong warming trend expected Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Midday satellite imagery depicted the erosion of the stratus
across SW KS, a process that will continue through sunset,
albeit a slow process with the weakest sunlight of the year.
A light southwest wind will prevail this afternoon, but despite
the addition of sunshine and a downslope component, afternoon
temperatures will remain well below normal in the recirculated
continental polar air. With a clear sky and light winds,
temperatures will drop rapidly into the 20s at sunset.
Temperatures will then hold near normal, in the 20s, through
sunrise Friday, held up by light SWly downslope.
Temperatures will moderate back to near early December normals,
near 50, Friday afternoon, as 850 mb temperatures climb back
above 0C. This, despite light winds trending northerly in the
afternoon with the passage of another weak dry cold front.
Models forecast further warming Saturday, with most locations
warming into the lower to mid 50s. With light southwest
downslope, Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend. Behind
an Alberta clipper, the next dry cold front will race through
SW KS Saturday night, with elevated/strong north winds, at least
stronger than NBM guidance. North 850 mb winds are forecast
near 40 mph, but nocturnal timing should keep much of this
momentum above the decoupled boundary layer.
Much colder air arrives Sunday, but only seasonably cold,
nothing unusual for December, with afternoon temperatures in the
30s, to lower 40s west.
Global models and ensemble averages remain consistent
forecasting a strong warming trend Monday through Tuesday. With
SWly downslope over very dry ground (especially by then), NBM is
likely not warm enough Tuesday. Expectation is for temperatures
well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon, with 70s possible west. The
next dry cold front passage is scheduled for Wednesday morning,
with more strong north winds and a cooler Wednesday.
Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future.
Global models such as ECMWF/EPS have zero QPF in, or even near,
SW KS for the next 15 days, through December 18th. This is a
high confidence warm/dry forecast, with the 8-14 day outlook
from the CPC continuing with a high probability (> 70-80%) of
above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation into
mid December.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations at 16z
depicted widespread IFR stratus persisting across SW KS. The
stratus will erode through this afternoon, but it will take a
while with the weak sun angle, with VFR/SKC expected to return
to all airports by around 21z Thu. SW winds of 10-15 kts will
prevail this afternoon. Excellent flying weather is expected
tonight and Friday with VFR, scattered mid/high clouds, and
light winds.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
