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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 042041
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are likely for Friday and Saturday
  with colder temperatures forecast for Sunday before above
  normal temperatures return early next week.

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Currently, there is a weak upper-level shortwave over Kansas with
upper troughing over the southwest US approaching the Central
Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits over the
Midwest, stretching into Kansas and Oklahoma.

Tonight, low temperatures will remain slightly below normal with
lows in the lower 20s. On Friday, low-level downslope flow will help
moderate temperatures bringing highs into the upper 40s and lower
50s. Warmer temperatures will continue into Saturday as low-level
WAA keeps highs on Saturday afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
By Saturday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave trough over SD/NE
will move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. The associated
surface low will push south through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into
eastern Kansas by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will
advect some moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, low
chances of drizzle will be possible late Saturday night in southeast
KS. However, at this time, the ECMWF is the most optimistic model
regarding this solution. Better precipitation chances will stay
northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push a
cold front through our area by Sunday morning, bringing in another
surge of cold air. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s
on Sunday with breezy northerly winds.

Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in
our area Monday and Tuesday as weak upper-level ridging sits over
the western CONUS. The next upper-level trough is progged to move
into the Northern Plains Tuesday night. Its associated surface low
will move east from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night, keeping precipitation chances out of our area.
A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures
return with highs in the 40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal
850 mb temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return
of above normal surface temperatures. Highs are expected to range
from the lower 50s in southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and
south-central KS on Tuesday, which is about 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Light winds and VFR will prevail across the area over the
upcoming 24-hr period. A few flurries may impact southern KS
through early/mid afternoon near the OK state line but no impact
to our terminals is anticipated.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 041712 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1012 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday. - Very low chances for snow Saturday across northern portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 120 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 A period of subtle moisture advection coupled with an increase in 700mb dry air led to periods of freezing drizzle across the area during the early morning hours. We have just enough dry air advection in the 850-800mb layer that a subtle warm nose has formed leading to the freezing precipitation. 03Z RAP suggests any low level omega should end around 08Z thusly ending any precipitation potential. 285 and 290K isentropic analysis also suggests subsidence to be on the increase as well during this time. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also forecast primarily across western portions of the area, with the potential for localized dense fog as well. Any dense fog looks to be kept along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Any fog potential looks to end around 12-14Z as winds become more southwesterly as a surface trough moves across the area. Stratus however is forecast to linger through the late afternoon hours making it a slow warm up for most. As the trough continues to move through the area and clouds clear breezy winds are forecast to ensue sustained around 15-20 mph is forecast with gusts of 25-30 mph. Winds are forecast to be in the "furnace" wind direction which climatologically supports temperatures in the upper forecast echelon so have nudged temperatures up some. I wasn't as aggressive as I normally would be given the new snowfall potentially mitigating how warm we can get. Sunny skies are then forecast to ensue for the afternoon before some scattered to broken mid level clouds move in again for the evening and overnight hours. Friday, surface troughing continues across the area. An increase in in 700-500mb moisture occurs as well. RAP cross sections show modest omega around 10-12 microbars in this layer as well but with dry air in the low levels virga is most likely to occur although some sprinkles or flurries may mix in. The NAM however has a deeper and moist profile but the forcing is I did nudge temperatures down a few degrees as well as most GEFS ensemble members keeps colder 850mb temperatures further west than deterministic guidance does. High temperatures for the day remain forecast in the low to mid 50s across the area. Breezy winds may also develop as well with the trough gusting to 25 mph. Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to develop as yet another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and a surface low developing across northwestern portions of the forecast area. 850mb winds are forecast to intensify as the low deepens with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The NAM has the low a little further north which would increase the magnitude of the winds whereas the GFS has is more over the area and broad which would lessen the winds some. Current forecast is tailored more towards the ECMWF which is a combo of the two with a bit of a more northern track but a broad low. Will also need to watch for some spotty rain or snow showers as well as some sporadic 700mb frontogenesis through the morning hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 The long-term will be plagued with northwesterly flow allowing multiple shortwave troughs to move through the region. The first wave could move through around 18Z Monday to 6Z Tuesday and a second one within 24 hours. These shortwaves look to be fairly dry, so precipitation is not likely. However, if southerly 850 mb advection taps into more moist air, this could quickly change and will need to be monitored. Our next big trough is looking to move into the area some time between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday noon. There is a better signal that precipitation will occur with this system as low-level moisture will have increased. Currently, PoPs are focused on the northwestern CWA, reaching about 20, while the northwestern 3/4 of the CWA is sitting around 10 PoPs. Depending on if the precipitation occurs overnight or during the day will decide if snow or rain will be the dominate P-type. Sunday's high temperatures are a bit uncertain as the exiting trough will heavily influence them. NBM currently shows the eastern edges of the CWA remaining in the low to mid 30s while the western half of the CWA warms into the mid to upper 40s. If the trough exits faster, temperatures will be in the 40s across the area, but if it's slower or takes a more westerly path, cooler temperatures will spread westward. Beyond Sunday, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s while lows will generally cool into the 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1010 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 IFR ceilings will persist an hour or so into this afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK before clearing. The remainder of the TAF period will be VFR with diminishing surface winds after sunset. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...024
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 042042 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures moderate Friday and Saturday before another cool-down on Sunday, then another warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday. - There remains a low chance for light rain/snow Saturday night in northeast KS; otherwise weather looks dry through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 In the upper levels, broad troughing encompasses much of the CONUS with the northern stream energy pushing through the Northeast and the southern stream trough axis extending from Mexico's Baja Peninsula up through the southern Rockies. An upper ridge is sitting off the coast of the Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface, expansive high pressure has slowly been moving east today and is now centered in the IA/IL/WI vicinity early this afternoon. This high will continue to slide east tonight, allowing southerly low-level flow to spread east across the area as well. Despite clear skies, there should be just enough WAA and just enough wind off the surface to keep temperatures from getting as cold as they did this morning, though it will still be on the chilly side to start out Friday. Lows are forecast in the upper teens to low 20s, followed by highs approaching average values in the 40s thanks to the warmer air advecting into the area. A subtle disturbance passes through the northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, which brings a weak sfc trough through the area, but this looks to have little impact on us aside from high clouds and a brief wind shift back to the north Friday night. Southerly low-level flow reestablishes itself Saturday ahead of the next embedded shortwave, which may have slightly more impact on our forecast area. Models have been back and forth on how far south this system and any associated precipitation will be. Overall the best synoptic forcing for ascent looks to be northeast of the area into Nebraska and especially Iowa, but the wave could still track south enough for northern parts of the area to see some brief rain and/or snow Saturday evening. NBM probabilities for measurable snow are generally 15% or less, with PoPs only slightly better at 20% or less. Even these "higher" numbers are mostly concentrated in Brown County with a dropoff as you go southwest. What is more certain is the incoming cold air behind the system. Lows Sunday look similar to what we should see tomorrow, but with highs topping out in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A general warming trend then ensues as high pressure from Sunday departs east. By Tuesday, a downslope component to the low-level winds should help boost temperatures further, and most of the area has a good shot at seeing 50 degrees! There could be another system within the northwest flow aloft that brings another cold front through the area mid-week, but large temperature spreads (20+ degrees) by Thursday lead to low confidence in how impactful that front may be and how long the warmth will last. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue with clear skies and light winds. Winds are in the process of switching towards the south as of forecast issuance, and should remain there through most of the period. A weak boundary will allow winds to turn more to the southwest at the very end of this period and beyond. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 042000 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future, for the next 10-15 days. - Afternoon temperatures moderate back to near normal early December normals Friday and Saturday. - The next dry cold front will arrive Saturday night with elevated north winds, followed by much colder air Sunday. - Strong warming trend expected Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Midday satellite imagery depicted the erosion of the stratus across SW KS, a process that will continue through sunset, albeit a slow process with the weakest sunlight of the year. A light southwest wind will prevail this afternoon, but despite the addition of sunshine and a downslope component, afternoon temperatures will remain well below normal in the recirculated continental polar air. With a clear sky and light winds, temperatures will drop rapidly into the 20s at sunset. Temperatures will then hold near normal, in the 20s, through sunrise Friday, held up by light SWly downslope. Temperatures will moderate back to near early December normals, near 50, Friday afternoon, as 850 mb temperatures climb back above 0C. This, despite light winds trending northerly in the afternoon with the passage of another weak dry cold front. Models forecast further warming Saturday, with most locations warming into the lower to mid 50s. With light southwest downslope, Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend. Behind an Alberta clipper, the next dry cold front will race through SW KS Saturday night, with elevated/strong north winds, at least stronger than NBM guidance. North 850 mb winds are forecast near 40 mph, but nocturnal timing should keep much of this momentum above the decoupled boundary layer. Much colder air arrives Sunday, but only seasonably cold, nothing unusual for December, with afternoon temperatures in the 30s, to lower 40s west. Global models and ensemble averages remain consistent forecasting a strong warming trend Monday through Tuesday. With SWly downslope over very dry ground (especially by then), NBM is likely not warm enough Tuesday. Expectation is for temperatures well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon, with 70s possible west. The next dry cold front passage is scheduled for Wednesday morning, with more strong north winds and a cooler Wednesday. Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future. Global models such as ECMWF/EPS have zero QPF in, or even near, SW KS for the next 15 days, through December 18th. This is a high confidence warm/dry forecast, with the 8-14 day outlook from the CPC continuing with a high probability (> 70-80%) of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation into mid December. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1000 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations at 16z depicted widespread IFR stratus persisting across SW KS. The stratus will erode through this afternoon, but it will take a while with the weak sun angle, with VFR/SKC expected to return to all airports by around 21z Thu. SW winds of 10-15 kts will prevail this afternoon. Excellent flying weather is expected tonight and Friday with VFR, scattered mid/high clouds, and light winds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Turner