ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 090911
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temps today, with 60s likely for most
locations. Warm temps will quickly return for Thursday, with
highs again getting back into the 60s.
- Colder air will start to move into the area Friday, with a
more substantial surge of cold air moving-in for Saturday and
especially Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Currently have northwest flow aloft setup through most of the
CONUS with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse sliding
across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a more robust upper
wave is about to move into the Northern Rockies. At the surface,
high pressure extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the Appalachians.
Upper perturbation over the Northern Rockies will quickly track
southeast today and will be moving into the Northern Plains by
this evening. As this wave passes off to the north, west and
southwest winds will provide great downslope conditions this
afternoon, boosting highs into the 60s. Warmest temps today will
be west of I-135, where the deeper mixing will be located. If
we can get mixing deep enough, it's not out of the question that
our western fringes could approach 70 degrees this afternoon,
with a great chance that most areas reach the 60s.
By Wed morning, upper impulse will be tracking southeast across
the Mid Mississippi Valley with a weak cold front pushing
through the Plains. This will knock highs down into the low 50s
for Wed, which is still several degrees above seasonal highs. We
will get back into more good downslope for Thu which will push
highs back into the 60s for most areas.
GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement for the Fri-Sun
time frame which does lead to some higher confidence. They both
have a weak upper wave tracking out of southern Manitoba and
into the Western Great Lakes by Thu night. This will allow
another cold front to push through the forecast area by Fri
afternoon. However, the more impressive surge of cold air will
arrive on Sat, as a more impressive shortwave rotates out of
south central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Western Great Lakes by Sat evening. So confidence is high
in below normal temps for both Sat and Sun, with highs Sun
struggling to make it above freezing. Just like the last couple
of weeks, the cold air will not last long, as we get back to
seasonal temps by Mon. Confidence also remains high that we are
not looking at any precip events through the next 7 days, with
the best snow chances staying to the north.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Southerly winds will
turn southwest over the next couple hours. Winds will increase
after 16Z with southwesterly gusts for central Kansas locations
between 20-25 knots. Some mid-level clouds overnight will clear
during the day, returning around 00Z.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 091112
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
412 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm and breezy Tuesday; strongest gusts of 40-45
mph across northwest part of the forecast area, with lower
speeds elsewhere.
- Cold front this evening may bring wind gusts of 40-50 mph.
Strongest winds favored across the north.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday in the 60s to low 70s
before cooler, albeit normal to slightly below normal,
temperatures Friday through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
High clouds continue to move north to south across the area tonight,
am seeing some increase in mid level moisture as well as
additional clouds will continue to form through the night and
the morning hour but may be more scattered in nature. No
precipitation is expected due to dry air at the surface. Well
above average temperatures remain forecast for the area with
highs in the mid to upper 60s as west-northwest downsloping
winds ensue along with breezy to gusty winds from a very strong
mountain wave to our west. Would not be overly surprised if
there is a localized 70 degree observation somewhere across the
CWA as well. The one variable that could temper temperatures
some is the development of some mid level clouds from roughly
Sharon Springs up through McCook starting during the early
afternoon, this is the reason to not go even more aggressive
with high temperatures.
For the winds, the 850mb wind field is forecast to increase starting
around 7a-8am MT from the leading edge of strong clipper system
across the northern Plains. Mixing heights are forecast to be from
roughly 2000-3500 feet AGL which yields wind gusts in the 35-45 mph
range according to RAP and GFS soundings. The strongest winds are
forecast to be across northwest portions of the area. With how the
strong the wind field is would not be surprised if some isolated
instances of 50-55 mph occurs especially across Yuma county.
The warmer temperatures will also yield humidity values in the
low to mid 20s across the area which may end up flirting with
some elevated fire weather conditions especially if we can warm
up a little more than forecast.
Tuesday evening, a brief break from the wind is forecast as the
nocturnal inversion returns. However the strong clipper system
across the northern Plains will bring a modest cold front through
the area. With the wind field still in place gusty to strong winds
could occur with it as cold air advection is forecast to continue
through the night. RAP/NAM/GFS all have modest pressure rises of 6-
10mb and the 00Z HRRR wind gust output has some near 40 knot winds
in MCK which seems reasonable looking at the wind field on soundings
below 1000' which is enough for me to increase winds in the
forecast. The strongest winds are forecast to occur from around 7pm
CT (6pm MT)-12am CT (11pm MT). The winds should become weaker the
further south they move as the front moves further away from the
clipper system. If the front were to slow down some then winds would
not be as strong as the clipper and the front would become even more
disconnected. Some minor blowing dust may occur with the front but
with the current forecasted timing and it being as the low levels
stabilize not anticipating any major/impactful blowing dust issues.
Low stratus and perhaps a period of light rain/drizzle may also
occur behind the front as RAP cross soundings show an increase in
mid level moisture and weak omega around 2 microbars.
Wednesday, a relatively cooler day remains in store but still
slightly above normal in wake of the cold front. High temperatures
are forecast in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with the warmest across
the Colorado counties as downsloping westerly winds are again
forecast to return. Some lingering mid level vorticity from the
clipper system will bring some mid level omega amd mid level
moisture mainly northern portions of the CWA resulting in the
potential for flurries or sprinkles as the low levels become dry
again. As mentioned the warmest temperatures are forecast to be
across the west this is due to a surface trough moving through which
will shift winds back to the southwest around 10-15 mph resulting in
some wind gusts around 25 mph across the Colorado counties during
the afternoon. This trough is forecast to continue to keep winds
westerly throughout the night keep overnight temperatures in the
mid/upper 20s to low 30s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
Starting the extended period Thursday, guidance has trended warmer
with the temperatures as highs are currently forecast in the mid to
upper 60s as the same story from early in the week continues with
the westerly downsloping continuing. There are still a handful of
GEFS members that is still a little cooler but at this point feel it
is the outlier as it has fully transitioned to what was being
seen in the ECMWF and ECMWF-AIFS last night.
Friday, ECMWF continues to remain slower with the frontal passage
than the GEFS with an after sunrise frontal passage versus an
overnight passage. There are also still a few ECMWF members
that keeps the front east of the CWA which is an interesting
change but one that seems unlikely at this point. All in all for
Friday, ensembles have shifted towards the ECMWF solution
keeping the coldest of the air northeast of us. Granted yes it
will still get cold but be more slightly below normal than well
below normal. As a result of this precipitation chances
continue to look slim. Still watching for some stratus/fog and
potentially freezing drizzle/drizzle potential Friday morning
with some weak surface omega in place with the northeast portion
of the area looking more favored for that. The freezing drizzle
potential will depend on the magnitude of the front with a
colder front favoring the freezing drizzle and vice versa. At
this time I would favor more the drizzle side of things than
freezing drizzle with the "warmer"/slower frontal passage being
favored.
This weekend has now turned into the uncertain part when it comes to
temperatures. There are now signals towards a secondary cold front
moving through which is lobe of colder air that splits off from the
Friday cold which the ECMWF is really picking up on but the GEFS is
more split. If the ECMWF is actually the preferred guidance for this
time period then Saturday may be our cold day across the area as the
20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile
temperatures has changed to this day as well with McCook for
example ranging from 32F to 50F for a high. If the ECMWF trend
does continue then would not be surprised if a cooling trend in
the forecast for Saturday does occur. A very small signal for
light precipitation is seen for Saturday morning but at this
time it does not look likely.
A milder signal is then seen again for the start of the new work
week currently as high temperatures in the 50s to 60s return. As a
split flow pattern emerges. Which ironically has decent
agreement currently in ensembles.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025
High clouds continue to stream across the area, could see some
mid level clouds develop over the next 6 hours as well but
overall VFR conditions are forecast to continue. Breezy winds
are forecast to develop late this morning and continue
through the afternoon with gusts of 25-35 knots at each
terminal. A modest cold frontal passage late this
afternoon/evening is forecast to bring a period of very strong
LLWS for each terminal before winds should reach the surface. If
the winds are lighter than currently forecast then LLWS will
last longer through the evening. There is 5-10% chance of some
MVFR ceilings affecting the GLD terminal towards the latter
part of the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 090919
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today. Turning breezy tonight behind cold front.
- Up and down temperatures through Friday, then colder for the
weekend.
- No notable precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Water vapor imagery this morning shows our persistent eastern trough
western ridge still in place. The pattern is shifted a bit east
compared to much of the last week, as a potent jet streak moves onto
the Pacific Northwest coast. As the aforementioned jet streak
quickly moves towards the Plains today, the first in a series of
Alberta clippers will move southeast from Alberta (as the name
suggests) towards the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong
WAA and downsloping 850-700 mb winds will help temperatures
warm to near 60 today, a stark change compared to the past two
weeks. As the clipper passes by to our north tonight though, it
will push a sharp cold front southward through the area. The
core of the cold will stay to our north, but will give us enough
of a glancing blow to keep temperatures in the 40s. Also can't
completely rule out a brief sprinkle right along the front,
given strong low-level ascent. A perhaps more notable impact
will be gusty northwest winds behind the cold front. Gusts 30-40
mph will be common late tonight into tomorrow morning, and
could flirt with wind advisory criteria towards the Nebraska
border.
Northwest flow persists across the Plains through the rest of the
week and into the weekend. The strong upper jet will be indicative
of the strong baroclinicity across the region, with very cold
temperatures to our northeast and very warm temperatures to our
southwest. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer each day, as
the overall pattern has trended slightly more zonal and less
amplified. Still, we should see a shot of colder air for the
weekend, with a day or two of temperatures near/below freezing.
Similar to today's system, within the strong jet we'll see a few
more Alberta Clippers passing to our north. Can't rule out brief
flurries with any related frontal passage, but overall the pattern
supports continued dry conditions. Beyond the weekend, there are
initial hints of ridging building back in over the Plains. Remains
to be seen the exact strength and location of this ridge, but it
should at least bring somewhat warmer temperatures for early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the period with broken
mid and high level clouds. Winds stay from the southwest into
tomorrow evening, gusting around 20 kts from the day. Near the very
end of the period late evening Tuesday, a cold front will switch
winds to the northwest, gusting around 25 kts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 091106
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and unseasonably warm Today. Highs in some area may warm
to near 70.
- Elevated fire risk today west of highway 283.
- A brief cool down in temperatures on Wednesday will be
replaced by another very warm day for this time of year. Highs
Thursday will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
- Strong cold front cross southwest Kansas Thursday night. Highs
on Friday will occur early with falling temperatures expected
during the day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
An upper ridge was located near the west coast this morning. An
upper trough was positioned over British Columbia, just north
of this ridge. A northwest flow covered the Central United
States between this upper ridge and a northeast Canadian trough.
Temperatures at the 850mb level ranged 8 to 10C across western
Kansas and a northwest to westerly downslope flow is present
over eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Short term models this morning remain similar to previous runs
in showing a series of progressive upper level troughs moving
through the northwest flow over the next few days. This pattern
will cause several unseasonably warm days, separated by brief
cool down. A more significant shot of cold air is expected to
move into the northern plains late this week as the upper ridge
across the west amplifies.
Our first round of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected
today. Highs today will range from 15 to 20 degrees above the
seasonal normals and may even be a few degrees warmer given the
very warm 850mb temperatures forecast across southwest Kansas.
Despite these very warm 850mb temperatures (15-18C) and a
westerly downslope flow, high temperatures today may still be a
few degrees cooler than what the 850mb temperatures suggest
(around 70) across much of the area. This reasoning may be due
to the shallow mixing layer that all the short term models have
today. This shallow mixing layer from all the short term models
will limit the realization of the warmest air just above the
surface. At this time however, given the downslope flow and
expected sky cover, am still concerned that mixing will end up
being deeper than forecast. Even mixing only a few hundred feet
higher could easily push highs closer to 70F in some spots.
The limited deep mixing today will keep the fire weather risk
in the elevated category. This elevated risk this afternoon will
be west of highway 283. Afternoon humidity is expected to drop
into the 15 to 25 percent range there. Afternoon wind gusts are
currently forecast to be less than 25 mph. If deeper mixing
occurs, winds will be stronger. Now even with higher wind
trends only a few limited areas will meet near critical fire
weather conditions. These near critical areas, should they
develop, will be across portions of extreme southwest Kansas.
Currently any near extreme fire risk is a a low end
probability, less than 30%. Still given this is a low
probability event...anyone concerned about fire weather should
be aware of this potential.
A brief cool down is expected Wednesday as a progressive upper
level trough sends a cold front across southwest Kansas later
tonight. While highs will drop about 15F, they will remain above
seasonal norms. This respite will be short lived, with a robust
return of very warm air Thursday, potentially even warmer than
today. Ensemble guidance along with the high ECMWF EFI and
positive Shift of Tails strongly supports a unanimously warm air
mass being located over southwest Kansas. This places the
850mb temperatures above the 95th percentile. Humidity values
will remain higher than today, mitigating fire weather concerns.
A stronger cold front will sweep across the area late Thursday,
ushering in a much colder airmass into southwest Kansas by
early Friday. Amplification of the upper ridge over the West
will allow an Arctic high from Canada to move into the Northern
Plains. Similar to the frontal passage tonight, a period of
gusty north winds will develop. This time, however, the winds
will be stronger based on the forecast of the 850mb north winds
and magnitude of the cold air. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph in
some areas Thursday night into early Friday.
Although the main Arctic air mass is forecast to remain east of
southwest Kansas due to an upper ridge moving east across the
Western United States, southwest Kansas will still feel the
impacts of this cold air on Friday following the cold frontal
passage. Cold air advection on Friday behind the cold front due
to gusty north winds will lead to temperatures likely peaking
early in morning before falling during the afternoon. Confidence
is improving scenario given all the ensemble clusters to
various degrees indicate some type of falling afternoon
temperature trend during the day on Friday. This cold air will
remain in place through at least Saturday with high temperatures
on Saturday being in the 30s and 40s, coldest temperatures can
be expected near the I-70 corridor.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025
Short term models were in agreement with a cold front crossing
southwest Kansas between 03Z and 09Z Wednesday. This passage
will usher in gusty north winds. West winds at 10 to 15 knots
ahead of the cold front will shift to the north and increase to
near 20 knots. Gusts as highs as 30 knots or a little higher
possible at times. VFR conditions can be expected over the next
24 hours with a period of mid level moisture/clouds in the 8000
to 12000ft AGL developing following the cold frontal passage.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
