ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 051139
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
539 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonal temps for today into Saturday with a strong cold
front ushering-in much colder air for Sunday.
- Quick warm-up to start the work week, with widespread highs in
the mid and upper 50s for Tuesday.
- Dry conditions expected through the next 7 days with no winter
events on the horizon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Currently have a series of upper impulses in play across the
CONUS. One is tracking across western ND/SD with another piece
of energy moving into western MO. Meanwhile, water vapor
satellite imagery is showing an additional impulse sliding
across the Tennessee Valley.
Some upper energy is expected to quickly track out of the
Northern Intermountain today and into the Central Rockies by
later this afternoon. This will result in an increase in high
and mid clouds for this afternoon into the early evening hours.
In addition, a weak surface trough will slide through the area
and will flip winds around to the west and northwest across
mainly central KS this afternoon. Did go ahead and insert some
fog across southeast KS late tonight into Sat morning. This is
expected to be the result of a weak surface ridge moving into
the area along with clearing skies.
For Sat, Polar low will migrate down across southern Ontario
with northwest flow aloft in place from the Pacific Northwest
through the Plains, with a series of upper perturbations
embedded in the flow. As the Polar low slides east, another
shot of Arctic air will spill south Saturday across the Northern
Plains into to the Upper Mississippi Vally. At the same time,
another upper impulse will track from the Northern Rockies into
the Central Plains and will provide a swath of wintry precip to
locations well north and northeast of our forecast area. Strong
cold front is expected to move through the forecast area Sat
night and will not allow highs to get out of the 30s for Sunday.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid and upper
40s.
Good news is that a progressive northwest flow pattern will
remain in place, which means that colder air will be pushed
east quickly, with maxes on Monday approaching seasonal
normals. There is good model agreement that we will see some
good downslope on Tuesday which will push highs into the mid and
upper 50s for most of the area. Beyond Tuesday, models start to
diverge on how to handle a couple fast moving impulses tracking
southeast in the northwest flow aloft. So confidence in temps
beyond Tuesday is fairy low. However, confidence remains high
that we are not looking at any significant precip events.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Main aviation concern will be some patchy low clouds this
morning.
Some areas of low clouds developed a few hours ago over western
and central OK and are working slowly northeast. Some of this
may affect KICT and KCNU between 13z-17z but confidence is low
on how widespread they will be. For now will just run with
TEMPOs at both sites with the thinking KICT would have the best
shot at these cigs coming-in near IFR levels. If they move-in
they are not expected to last more than a few hour before they
burn off. Once these cigs move out, VFR conditions are then
expected at all sites for the remainder of the day. There will
be a chance at some fog developing generally after 09z at KCNU
as winds to light and skies clear out.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 051103
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
403 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.
- A 20% chance of a rain/snow mix Saturday morning with some
potential visibility reductions due to the gusty winds. Little
to no accumulation is currently forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
Northwest synoptic flow continues across the area tonight as a
surface high backs into the area. Mainly clear skies are ongoing
across the area but have had some transient freezing fog across
Greeley, Wichita and southern portions of Gove county but is
forecast to end by 2am CT as mainly westerly downsloping wind
occurs across the area.
For today, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast with highs
in the 40s. A weak cold front is forecas to move through the
during the mid/late morning hours leading to some weak lift and
an increase in clouds in the 700-600mb level. Continue to think
that sprinkles/flurries is most likely as dry air remains in
place near the surface but have added in some 15% snow/rain
chances across western Yuma county where the 03Z RAP13 shows
slightly stronger omega around 3mb which is co-located with
increasing TQ indices of 16- 18 which suggests some convective
nature may be present and is supported by the 03Z RAP13
soundings showing around 5 j/kg of CAPE in the same layer as
well; which would support a slightly better chance of some
precipitation during the afternoon hours. At this time leaning
more towards rain showers but can't discount out lower wetbulb
temperatures as seen on the 00Z NAM which would support a mix or
a brief changeover to all snow. Overall though not anticipating
any hazards at this time.
Saturday, has the potential for some nuisance impacts but still
quite a bit of variability remains. A low pressure system is
forecast to develop over in the northern vicinity of the
forecast area. ECMWF- AIFS supports a good 50/50 split of the
location of the low being across Kit Carson county or north of
the area just south of Interstate 80 which is where
deterministic guidance continues to place the low. At this time,
I'm favoring the northern track which is where the GEFS spread
supports the location. This will end up leading to gusty to
strong winds across the area gusting 50-55 mph as the low
deepens through the morning hours. If the low can deepen some
instead of being more broad then would not be surprised a rogue
wind gust to 60 mph can occur as well.
The other part of the forecast to keep a close eye on is
precipitation potential. Modest omega around 8-10 microbars is
seen across the majority of the area in the 800-600mb layer
along with some of the lift being located in the dendritic
growth zone. The biggest question mark at this time is if it can
overcome some drier air near the surface to reach the ground. I
strayed away from the NBM and introduced 15-24% chances of
precipitation across the area with northwest portions seeing
precipitation from 12-15Z and central and eastern 15-18Z. At
this time thinking that rain, snow or a rain/snow mix is most
likely but there is a corridor of 850mb warm air advection that
the RAP and the NAM are picking up on which concerns me for warm
nose potential resulting in a period of sleet or freezing rain.
Confidence in this is only around 10% at this time however so
will refrain from introducing that wording into the forecast.
Should rain or snow occur little to no accumulation is currently
anticipated at this time. Some visibility reductions to blowing
snow as the snow is falling may be possible however. The
biggest question mark at this time is how much dry air will be
at the surface and how will that affect what occurs at the
surface. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in
the upper 40s to low 50s but I for sure have concerns that they
may still be to high even after lowering them especially if
cloud cover remains thick.
A cold front on the back end of the low is then forecast to
move through the area Saturday night and into Sunday morning. A
large spread for high temperatures remains especially for the
eastern portions of the area due to variations of how far south
the front will progress and how quickly it will move east of the
area. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in
the mid 30s across the east to the low/mid 40s across the west
where downsloping may become more prevalent dependent on the
timing of the front. Dry conditions and mainly sunny skies are
currently forecast for the day Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
Below average forecast confidence. Long range guidance
indicates that an omega block -- the center/ridge of which will
be anchored offshore the central-southern Pacific Coast -- will
hold sway / dominate the synoptic pattern over the western half
of the CONUS next week, fostering a prolonged period of WNW-NW
flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains -- while a deep,
complex cyclonic gyre/vortex in eastern Canada (roughly centered
in vicinity of Hudson Bay) maintains deep troughing / cyclonic
flow aloft over the eastern CONUS.
Long range guidance suggests that the Tri-State area will be
situated on/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern..
between the upstream (western CONUS) ridge and downstream
(eastern CONUS) trough.. in NW-WNW flow aloft. 00Z 12/05
operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest that deep
troughing and regular/periodic Arctic airmass incursions into
the Lower 48 will be confined to the central-eastern CONUS (east
of the Tri-State area).. and that occasional progressive
cyclones (storm tracks) will be confined well north and east of
the Tri-State area.. to the Dakotas, Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. If this is the case, one would expect dry conditions
and, on the whole, near average to above average temperatures.
With guidance indicating that the Tri-State area will be
situated on/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern,
forecast confidence is below average (esp. mid-late week).
Interactions between shortwave energy rounding the N periphery
of the eastern Pacific ridge and shortwave energy rounding the W
and SW periphery of the complex cyclonic gyre in Canada could
subtly alter the evolution of the upper level pattern, for
example: shift the synoptic 'inflection point' (and westward
extent of deep cyclonic flow aloft) slightly further west..
placing the Tri-State area in closer proximity to Arctic airmass
incursions, or.. vice versa.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025
Winds are veering towards the northwest currently. Still
forecasting breezy wind gusts of 20-30 knots developing late
morning and continuing through the afternoon with the strongest
at GLD. Guidance has been coming in a bit stronger on the winds
so confidence is fairly high in this occurring. Winds overnight
are then forecast to back back to the southwest overnight.
Watching for the potential for a few flurries or sprinkle
potential for each terminal this afternoon. Towards the latter
part of this period and into the next some rain/snow showers are
possible for each terminal. Will continue to monitor but this
may be the next potential for a reduction in flight categories.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 051107
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
507 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- More seasonable temperatures today and tomorrow before another
brief cold spell arrives for Sunday.
- Still very low rain chance Saturday evening across northeast
KS, but otherwise no significant precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
We continue to see broad upper troughing across much of the CONUS,
while a ridge axis is centered off the West Coast. This pattern will
persist throughout the next week. As a result, northwest flow will
be maintained over the Plains, with multiple fast-moving, low-
amplitude shortwaves moving through this flow.
Right now, southerly flow has returned behind our most recent
system. This will help temperatures moderate back to near average
today. A weakening cold front moves through this evening but has
little impact on temperatures Saturday. By Saturday evening, the
next shortwave will move across the Midwest, with a surface low
moving across southern Nebraska. This track will keep most
precipitation to our north, though can't completely rule out some
brief rain across northeast Kansas. The main impact though will be a
stronger cold front pushing through the area, making Sunday another
day where temperatures struggle to get back to freezing.
We'll see a brief warmup next week as shortwave ridging builds in
ahead of the next trough. The track of the 850 mb low will be
favorable for a surge of warmer air with downsloping off the
Rockies, giving good confidence in temperatures rising into the 50s
Tuesday. Behind this system, we should see a return of cooler
temperatures for the second half of the week. Exactly how cool is a
question though, as ensemble spread quickly increases with the
re-deepening of the eastern CONUS trough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Some IFR stratus is currently beginning to develop in far
south-central KS and move northward, but a majority of model
guidance keeps it well south of the main TAF sites this morning, so
will maintain a VFR forecast. Winds stay southwesterly around 5-10
kts today before weakening below 5 kts overnight. Towards the very
end of the period Saturday morning, could see some patchy fog begin
to develop, but confidence in this is very low for now.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 051138
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly to totally dry weather is forecast for the next week to
10 days, and probably longer.
- Warmer temperatures can be expected today and Saturday,
followed by a modest cooldown for Sunday and then a warmup
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Low level moisture has been stubborn to leave even with
southwest boundary layer winds. Isolated fog existed this
morning; but this will quickly erode with daytime heating.
Expect highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with plenty of sun,
with the warmest readings at Pratt and Medicine Lodge.
Milder weather will persist Saturday, with even warmer highs in
the 50s, along with breezy south winds. An upper level
disturbance traversing the northern plains will push a cold
front through western Kansas Saturday night, resulting in highs
back down into the upper 30s to upper 40s for Sunday.
Zonal to northwesterly mid level flow is expected to persist
next week. Warmer air will mix to the surface and allow
temperatures to rise into the 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday. A
slight cooldown is forecast by Wednesday in the wake of another
dry cold front.
Temperatures next Thursday will depend on the timing of yet
another dry cold front. The EPS ensemble mean is slower and
warmer while the EPS/ICON means are a few hours faster. If the
front is slower then strong downslope flow would allow
temperatures to reach into the 70s. However, a faster frontal
passage would yield highs in the mid to upper 50s to mid 60s.
The latter scenario is more likely given that the timing of
these strong downslope surges has to be just right to yield
maximum warmth.
Temperatures next weekend are going to be tricky as arctic air
will be invading the Great Lakes and eastern United States.
Southwest Kansas will be in between a cold air mass to the
northeast and a very mild air mass to the southwest. Therefore,
day to day temperatures will hard to forecast and will likely
be cooler at Hays than Liberal and Elkhart. Even if cooler air
does sneak farther west, any cold intrusion wouldn't last long
given the mid level pattern that has a significant downslope
component.
No precipitation is expected over the next 10 days as the EPS
and GEPS ensemble means and 24 hr probabilities are close to 0
inches and 0% chances. Even through 20 December the chances for
measurable precipitation are very low (10% or less).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Any remnant patches of 5SM BR will quickly erode by 14z with
daytime heating and dry advection. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to persist through the period. Winds will shift to
the northwest at 10 kts by 17z and then decrease by sunset with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
