ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 021805
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1205 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quiet and dry weather pattern will persist for several days
across central and southern Kansas.
- Cold wind chills will affect the entire region for late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as another polar
airmass sinks southward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
South winds return and sunny skies will help warm temperatures up
today as surface high pressure pushes east of Kansas. Models
are in good agreement with another surge of polar air sinking
southward from the northern plains and spreading into Kansas on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. This surge of colder air will also be
accompanied by increasing north winds during the day on
Wednesday. The combination of polar air and north winds will
drop wind chill readings to near zero degrees over central
Kansas for Thursday morning, with all other areas dropping in
the single digits.
A dry and quiet weather pattern looks to persist for several days as
a upper level northwest flow regime becomes well established thus
keeping moisture shoved well south of Kansas. Temperatures will
gradually warm for Friday and Saturday followed by another push of
colder air on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
A cold front will move south across the region late tonight
through Wednesday, with gusty north-northeast winds in its wake,
along with MVFR ceilings. Additionally, could see some patchy
light snow flurries later tonight into early Wednesday for the
GBD-RSL-SLN TAF sites. Thinking any snow will remain very light
due to high cloud bases and weak lift, and absolutely no
accumulation is expected. Consequently, did not included mention
in the 18z routine TAFs at this time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 021729
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is forecast to develop over portions of the area
overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday afternoon. Most of
the area will not even see an inch of snow from this system.
- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
lead to minor travel impacts.
- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
Over the past few hours, temperatures dropped into the teens
before a low-level ridge moved across the area. This has lead to
west-southwesterly winds gradually warming the CWA up a few
degrees from downsloping flow and weak WAA.
The WAA is expected to continue into the day. Combined with some
more sun shining through, temperatures are forecast to warm into the
mid to upper 40s across the area. There is some wiggle room for the
highs depending on clouds. More sky coverage and some places will
not climb out of the low 40s, but if more sun shines through, 50s
will be seen across parts of the area. Winds will become light and
variable in the afternoon as a very weak trough moves over the area.
Overnight tonight gets a bit more interesting. The aforementioned
trough will allow an 850 mb low to form early in the night,
southwest of the area. This will pull in cooler, saturated air from
the north. There still looks to be a dry layer around 50-100 mb
thick at the surface. A heavy cloud deck will move in overnight, and
starting around 0-3Z over the western CWA, 500 mb vorticity
associated with a 250 mb trough axis, will move over the CWA. This
will provide forcing and moisture to lead to some flurries and light
snow. This potential for light precipitation will expand eastward,
covering most of the CWA by 9Z. There is a lot of disagreement from
the models regarding the potential for this precipitation, largely
revolving around if the forcing will occur and if the dry layer will
lead to only virga. Current confidence in light snow leading to
trace to no accumulation before 12Z Wednesday across most of the CWA
is about 30-40%.
By 12-15Z Wednesday morning, model disagreement dissolves over the
western CWA as the main trough starts to sweep through the area.
Snow is expected to continue along and west of KS 27 between 12 and
21Z Wednesday. This main wave of snow will move in from the
northwest and generally progress to the south throughout the day.
Snow may occur farther east until the afternoon. The western halves
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60% chance
of seeing an inch of snow. There is only a ~40% chance of localized
accumulations of an inch east of the Colorado border, and potential
rapidly declines farther east.
In the midday Wednesday, mainly 15-21Z, winds gusts are forecast to
be in the 20-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly
in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest.
Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than
1 mile is about 20-30%. Nuisance (>5 mile visibility) blowing snow
has a 30-50% chance of occurring in pockets across the CWA as snow
falls.
Temperatures from the NBM show highs warming to just above freezing
for most of the CWA. With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected
to stay below freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected
throughout the day, it seems unlikely temperatures will be this
warm. Most likely, temperatures west of about KS 27 will warm to
just below or right at freezing, and locations to the east will see
the above freezing temperatures.
Wednesday night, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend
from the Northern Rockies. This will slowly clear the skies over the
CWA and help temperatures cool into the teens by Thursday morning.
The northeastern CWA is expected to clear first and have efficient
CAA from the high's flow. This is leading to a 50% chance of
temperatures dropping into the single digits along and northeast of
McCook, NE to Hill City, KS. Wind chills Thursday morning look to be
in the single digits down to 0 in the cold, northeastern
portion.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
The central plains will be under northwest flow this period,
downstream from a ridge axis off the western CONUS. Occasional
shortwaves coming over the ridge will bring only slight
precipitation chances, with measurable amounts of rain and/or
snow looking unlikely at this time. None of these systems are
strong enough to warrant any wind concerns and relative humidity
minimums are well above any fire weather concerns. So what
amounts to basically a temperature forecast will start off
around 10 degrees below normal on Thursday, a bit cooler in any
snow covered areas of Colorado, followed by near normal
temperatures on Friday, around 5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, near normal on Sunday behind a weak cold front, and 5
to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Normal highs are in the
upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through 03z with increasing
potential for reduced flight categories at both terminals as 12Z
approaches. Strong cold front will sweep through the area
overnight with somewhat moist upslope flow developing behind it.
Potential for IFR stratus and fog to develop around 12z is
highest at KGLD and think IFR conditions will prevail for
several hours at KGLD. After initial surge in cloud cover
behind front, differential cold air advection will likely
destabilize things enough for scattered light snow showers to
develop after 15z. While these will be short lived and likely
not amount to much, if any, accumulation they may bring
intermittent periods of IFR/MVFR conditions.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 021748
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1148 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Afternoon temps warm to above freezing today and tomorrow, before
another round of very cold air moves in.
-POPs remain less than 10 percent through the rest of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Early this morning, snow pack and clear skies are causing
temperatures to be very chilly in the teens and single digits.
Scattered areas of freezing fog have also been observed, mainly
at TOP. Some areas of freezing fog will remain possible until
mid-morning, especially where deeper snow pack exists. For the
rest of the day, high pressure currently over the area will
slide east, allowing south winds to return to the region. A
seasonally strong WAA set up will be slightly stunted by fresh
snow on the ground, but still should be enough to help
temperatures exceed the freezing mark for a majority of the
area. Above freezing temps and sunshine should help continue to
improve road conditions today. However, icy spots could again
develop following melting with temps in the 20s tonight.
A cold front then moves through northeast KS early Wednesday. A
few flurries/sprinkles could occur as the column saturates with
little pockets of lift near the boundary. North winds will
increase behind the front, which will usher in another round of
very cold Canadian-based air Wednesday night and Thursday. The
current forecast of 8 degrees in Topeka Thursday morning would
tie the record set in 1902! Highs then during the afternoon will
only reach the mid and upper 20s with a large sfc ridge
remaining in place behind Wednesday's front.
Beyond Thursday, the mid-level pattern will consist of northwest
flow over the area. Long range models show periodic perturbations
within the flow, which for now do not look too impactful for the
area. One on Sunday could allow for snow just to the north, so will
have to monitor trends as that timeframe approaches. Otherwise,
temperatures should be a bit more mild with highs near 40 degrees
around Topeka on Friday and Saturday, then cooler again by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of this forecast.
Modest south to southwest winds should be the rule until a cold
front arrive late, with timing looking to bring in into MHK
around 16Z and ushering in MVFR stratus. Very light
precipitation can't be ruled out late in the forecast as well. A
modest low-level jet forms overnight but speeds look too low to
include.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Poage
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 021605
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1005 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
next 7-10 days, through at least December 11th.
- Temperatures return to early December normals Tuesday
afternoon.
- Windy and much colder, with low clouds behind a strong cold
front Wednesday.
- Scattered snow flurries Wednesday night, especially west of
Dodge City. Minor snow accumulations possible near the
Colorado border, with little impact expected.
- A series of dry cold front passages will continue this weekend
and early next week, with temperature and wind flucuations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
As the storm system from yesterday has exited, along with the
associated positively tilted trough, a long stretch of quiet
weather is expected across SW Kansas. Tuesday will see weak
ridging providing mostly clear skies, lighter winds (<15 mph),
and warmer temperatures (up into the 50s). While the area is
enjoying pleasant December weather Tuesday, ensembles have
another positively tilted trough developing and digging across
the Pacific northwest.
Ensembles have the trough weakening out, but not before returning
snow chances back into Kansas, this time along the farthest western
counties. Areas along the KS/CO border have a 30% chance to see at
least 0.1" inches of snow Wednesday. The best chances are around the
timeframe of around 10 AM to 10 PM CST. Models only have
precipitable water values of 0.5". Additionally, the HRRR and some
ensemble members have the leading edge falling as rain. After a warm
Tuesday, Wednesday temperatures are not expected to be cold enough
for freezing rain to occur. However the biggest risk with this
marginal event would be if rain or melting snow falls first with
snow falling on top. This could result in spot of ice hidden by snow
that may make people slip and cars slide. Otherwise, snow
accumulations are expected to be relatively minimal due to the
positioning of the system and the lack of moisture. Ensemble means
struggle to reach 0.5" and not even the 75th percentile gets to an
inch. Unless there is a forecast change, only far western Kansas
will see snowflakes and only areas near the KS/CO border will see
meaningful accumulations. The system brings colder winds with it
with highs only in the upper 30s. This is expected to be the coolest
highs all week.
After Wednesday, ensembles have the synoptic flow returning to a
primarily zonal regime. No significant (>5%) precipitation chances
for the rest of the week and beyond. Temperatures will be mild and
seasonal that SW Kansas can typical expect in December. Relative
humidities will be high enough and after Wednesday winds will be
fairly light. This will keep fire weather risks at a minimum. As a
result it is expected that the 3-7 day, and potentially beyond,
will be quiet and without a headline.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR is expected to continue through 12z Wed. Increasing south
winds after 18z Tue, with gusts 20-25 kts. Winds will trend
light and variable for a few hours this evening, with increasing
cirrus. Next cold front is expected to clear all airports by
12z Wed, with a sharp increase in north winds, gusting
25-30 kts. Strong northeast winds will continue Wednesday
morning, gusting 30-32 kts. High confidence that flight
categories will degrade after frontal passage, with consensus of
short term models forecasting IFR/LIFR stratus at DDC/GCK/HYS by
15z Wed, MVFR at LBL.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner
