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Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 090911
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temps today, with 60s likely for most
  locations. Warm temps will quickly return for Thursday, with
  highs again getting back into the 60s.

- Colder air will start to move into the area Friday, with a
  more substantial surge of cold air moving-in for Saturday and
  especially Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Currently have northwest flow aloft setup through most of the
CONUS with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse sliding
across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a more robust upper
wave is about to move into the Northern Rockies. At the surface,
high pressure extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the Appalachians.

Upper perturbation over the Northern Rockies will quickly track
southeast today and will be moving into the Northern Plains by
this evening. As this wave passes off to the north, west and
southwest winds will provide great downslope conditions this
afternoon, boosting highs into the 60s. Warmest temps today will
be west of I-135, where the deeper mixing will be located. If
we can get mixing deep enough, it's not out of the question that
our western fringes could approach 70 degrees this afternoon,
with a great chance that most areas reach the 60s.

By Wed morning, upper impulse will be tracking southeast across
the Mid Mississippi Valley with a weak cold front pushing
through the Plains. This will knock highs down into the low 50s
for Wed, which is still several degrees above seasonal highs. We
will get back into more good downslope for Thu which will push
highs back into the 60s for most areas.

GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement for the Fri-Sun
time frame which does lead to some higher confidence. They both
have a weak upper wave tracking out of southern Manitoba and
into the Western Great Lakes by Thu night. This will allow
another cold front to push through the forecast area by Fri
afternoon. However, the more impressive surge of cold air will
arrive on Sat, as a more impressive shortwave rotates out of
south central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Western Great Lakes by Sat evening. So confidence is high
in below normal temps for both Sat and Sun, with highs Sun
struggling to make it above freezing. Just like the last couple
of weeks, the cold air will not last long, as we get back to
seasonal temps by Mon. Confidence also remains high that we are
not looking at any precip events through the next 7 days, with
the best snow chances staying to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Southerly winds will
turn southwest over the next couple hours. Winds will increase
after 16Z with southwesterly gusts for central Kansas locations
between 20-25 knots. Some mid-level clouds overnight will clear
during the day, returning around 00Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 091112 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 412 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and breezy Tuesday; strongest gusts of 40-45 mph across northwest part of the forecast area, with lower speeds elsewhere. - Cold front this evening may bring wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Strongest winds favored across the north. - Unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday in the 60s to low 70s before cooler, albeit normal to slightly below normal, temperatures Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 110 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 High clouds continue to move north to south across the area tonight, am seeing some increase in mid level moisture as well as additional clouds will continue to form through the night and the morning hour but may be more scattered in nature. No precipitation is expected due to dry air at the surface. Well above average temperatures remain forecast for the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s as west-northwest downsloping winds ensue along with breezy to gusty winds from a very strong mountain wave to our west. Would not be overly surprised if there is a localized 70 degree observation somewhere across the CWA as well. The one variable that could temper temperatures some is the development of some mid level clouds from roughly Sharon Springs up through McCook starting during the early afternoon, this is the reason to not go even more aggressive with high temperatures. For the winds, the 850mb wind field is forecast to increase starting around 7a-8am MT from the leading edge of strong clipper system across the northern Plains. Mixing heights are forecast to be from roughly 2000-3500 feet AGL which yields wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range according to RAP and GFS soundings. The strongest winds are forecast to be across northwest portions of the area. With how the strong the wind field is would not be surprised if some isolated instances of 50-55 mph occurs especially across Yuma county. The warmer temperatures will also yield humidity values in the low to mid 20s across the area which may end up flirting with some elevated fire weather conditions especially if we can warm up a little more than forecast. Tuesday evening, a brief break from the wind is forecast as the nocturnal inversion returns. However the strong clipper system across the northern Plains will bring a modest cold front through the area. With the wind field still in place gusty to strong winds could occur with it as cold air advection is forecast to continue through the night. RAP/NAM/GFS all have modest pressure rises of 6- 10mb and the 00Z HRRR wind gust output has some near 40 knot winds in MCK which seems reasonable looking at the wind field on soundings below 1000' which is enough for me to increase winds in the forecast. The strongest winds are forecast to occur from around 7pm CT (6pm MT)-12am CT (11pm MT). The winds should become weaker the further south they move as the front moves further away from the clipper system. If the front were to slow down some then winds would not be as strong as the clipper and the front would become even more disconnected. Some minor blowing dust may occur with the front but with the current forecasted timing and it being as the low levels stabilize not anticipating any major/impactful blowing dust issues. Low stratus and perhaps a period of light rain/drizzle may also occur behind the front as RAP cross soundings show an increase in mid level moisture and weak omega around 2 microbars. Wednesday, a relatively cooler day remains in store but still slightly above normal in wake of the cold front. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with the warmest across the Colorado counties as downsloping westerly winds are again forecast to return. Some lingering mid level vorticity from the clipper system will bring some mid level omega amd mid level moisture mainly northern portions of the CWA resulting in the potential for flurries or sprinkles as the low levels become dry again. As mentioned the warmest temperatures are forecast to be across the west this is due to a surface trough moving through which will shift winds back to the southwest around 10-15 mph resulting in some wind gusts around 25 mph across the Colorado counties during the afternoon. This trough is forecast to continue to keep winds westerly throughout the night keep overnight temperatures in the mid/upper 20s to low 30s across the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 110 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Starting the extended period Thursday, guidance has trended warmer with the temperatures as highs are currently forecast in the mid to upper 60s as the same story from early in the week continues with the westerly downsloping continuing. There are still a handful of GEFS members that is still a little cooler but at this point feel it is the outlier as it has fully transitioned to what was being seen in the ECMWF and ECMWF-AIFS last night. Friday, ECMWF continues to remain slower with the frontal passage than the GEFS with an after sunrise frontal passage versus an overnight passage. There are also still a few ECMWF members that keeps the front east of the CWA which is an interesting change but one that seems unlikely at this point. All in all for Friday, ensembles have shifted towards the ECMWF solution keeping the coldest of the air northeast of us. Granted yes it will still get cold but be more slightly below normal than well below normal. As a result of this precipitation chances continue to look slim. Still watching for some stratus/fog and potentially freezing drizzle/drizzle potential Friday morning with some weak surface omega in place with the northeast portion of the area looking more favored for that. The freezing drizzle potential will depend on the magnitude of the front with a colder front favoring the freezing drizzle and vice versa. At this time I would favor more the drizzle side of things than freezing drizzle with the "warmer"/slower frontal passage being favored. This weekend has now turned into the uncertain part when it comes to temperatures. There are now signals towards a secondary cold front moving through which is lobe of colder air that splits off from the Friday cold which the ECMWF is really picking up on but the GEFS is more split. If the ECMWF is actually the preferred guidance for this time period then Saturday may be our cold day across the area as the 20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile temperatures has changed to this day as well with McCook for example ranging from 32F to 50F for a high. If the ECMWF trend does continue then would not be surprised if a cooling trend in the forecast for Saturday does occur. A very small signal for light precipitation is seen for Saturday morning but at this time it does not look likely. A milder signal is then seen again for the start of the new work week currently as high temperatures in the 50s to 60s return. As a split flow pattern emerges. Which ironically has decent agreement currently in ensembles. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 408 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 High clouds continue to stream across the area, could see some mid level clouds develop over the next 6 hours as well but overall VFR conditions are forecast to continue. Breezy winds are forecast to develop late this morning and continue through the afternoon with gusts of 25-35 knots at each terminal. A modest cold frontal passage late this afternoon/evening is forecast to bring a period of very strong LLWS for each terminal before winds should reach the surface. If the winds are lighter than currently forecast then LLWS will last longer through the evening. There is 5-10% chance of some MVFR ceilings affecting the GLD terminal towards the latter part of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 090919 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 319 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today. Turning breezy tonight behind cold front. - Up and down temperatures through Friday, then colder for the weekend. - No notable precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Water vapor imagery this morning shows our persistent eastern trough western ridge still in place. The pattern is shifted a bit east compared to much of the last week, as a potent jet streak moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast. As the aforementioned jet streak quickly moves towards the Plains today, the first in a series of Alberta clippers will move southeast from Alberta (as the name suggests) towards the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong WAA and downsloping 850-700 mb winds will help temperatures warm to near 60 today, a stark change compared to the past two weeks. As the clipper passes by to our north tonight though, it will push a sharp cold front southward through the area. The core of the cold will stay to our north, but will give us enough of a glancing blow to keep temperatures in the 40s. Also can't completely rule out a brief sprinkle right along the front, given strong low-level ascent. A perhaps more notable impact will be gusty northwest winds behind the cold front. Gusts 30-40 mph will be common late tonight into tomorrow morning, and could flirt with wind advisory criteria towards the Nebraska border. Northwest flow persists across the Plains through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The strong upper jet will be indicative of the strong baroclinicity across the region, with very cold temperatures to our northeast and very warm temperatures to our southwest. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer each day, as the overall pattern has trended slightly more zonal and less amplified. Still, we should see a shot of colder air for the weekend, with a day or two of temperatures near/below freezing. Similar to today's system, within the strong jet we'll see a few more Alberta Clippers passing to our north. Can't rule out brief flurries with any related frontal passage, but overall the pattern supports continued dry conditions. Beyond the weekend, there are initial hints of ridging building back in over the Plains. Remains to be seen the exact strength and location of this ridge, but it should at least bring somewhat warmer temperatures for early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the period with broken mid and high level clouds. Winds stay from the southwest into tomorrow evening, gusting around 20 kts from the day. Near the very end of the period late evening Tuesday, a cold front will switch winds to the northwest, gusting around 25 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 091106 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 506 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably warm Today. Highs in some area may warm to near 70. - Elevated fire risk today west of highway 283. - A brief cool down in temperatures on Wednesday will be replaced by another very warm day for this time of year. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. - Strong cold front cross southwest Kansas Thursday night. Highs on Friday will occur early with falling temperatures expected during the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 An upper ridge was located near the west coast this morning. An upper trough was positioned over British Columbia, just north of this ridge. A northwest flow covered the Central United States between this upper ridge and a northeast Canadian trough. Temperatures at the 850mb level ranged 8 to 10C across western Kansas and a northwest to westerly downslope flow is present over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Short term models this morning remain similar to previous runs in showing a series of progressive upper level troughs moving through the northwest flow over the next few days. This pattern will cause several unseasonably warm days, separated by brief cool down. A more significant shot of cold air is expected to move into the northern plains late this week as the upper ridge across the west amplifies. Our first round of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected today. Highs today will range from 15 to 20 degrees above the seasonal normals and may even be a few degrees warmer given the very warm 850mb temperatures forecast across southwest Kansas. Despite these very warm 850mb temperatures (15-18C) and a westerly downslope flow, high temperatures today may still be a few degrees cooler than what the 850mb temperatures suggest (around 70) across much of the area. This reasoning may be due to the shallow mixing layer that all the short term models have today. This shallow mixing layer from all the short term models will limit the realization of the warmest air just above the surface. At this time however, given the downslope flow and expected sky cover, am still concerned that mixing will end up being deeper than forecast. Even mixing only a few hundred feet higher could easily push highs closer to 70F in some spots. The limited deep mixing today will keep the fire weather risk in the elevated category. This elevated risk this afternoon will be west of highway 283. Afternoon humidity is expected to drop into the 15 to 25 percent range there. Afternoon wind gusts are currently forecast to be less than 25 mph. If deeper mixing occurs, winds will be stronger. Now even with higher wind trends only a few limited areas will meet near critical fire weather conditions. These near critical areas, should they develop, will be across portions of extreme southwest Kansas. Currently any near extreme fire risk is a a low end probability, less than 30%. Still given this is a low probability event...anyone concerned about fire weather should be aware of this potential. A brief cool down is expected Wednesday as a progressive upper level trough sends a cold front across southwest Kansas later tonight. While highs will drop about 15F, they will remain above seasonal norms. This respite will be short lived, with a robust return of very warm air Thursday, potentially even warmer than today. Ensemble guidance along with the high ECMWF EFI and positive Shift of Tails strongly supports a unanimously warm air mass being located over southwest Kansas. This places the 850mb temperatures above the 95th percentile. Humidity values will remain higher than today, mitigating fire weather concerns. A stronger cold front will sweep across the area late Thursday, ushering in a much colder airmass into southwest Kansas by early Friday. Amplification of the upper ridge over the West will allow an Arctic high from Canada to move into the Northern Plains. Similar to the frontal passage tonight, a period of gusty north winds will develop. This time, however, the winds will be stronger based on the forecast of the 850mb north winds and magnitude of the cold air. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph in some areas Thursday night into early Friday. Although the main Arctic air mass is forecast to remain east of southwest Kansas due to an upper ridge moving east across the Western United States, southwest Kansas will still feel the impacts of this cold air on Friday following the cold frontal passage. Cold air advection on Friday behind the cold front due to gusty north winds will lead to temperatures likely peaking early in morning before falling during the afternoon. Confidence is improving scenario given all the ensemble clusters to various degrees indicate some type of falling afternoon temperature trend during the day on Friday. This cold air will remain in place through at least Saturday with high temperatures on Saturday being in the 30s and 40s, coldest temperatures can be expected near the I-70 corridor. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 501 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Short term models were in agreement with a cold front crossing southwest Kansas between 03Z and 09Z Wednesday. This passage will usher in gusty north winds. West winds at 10 to 15 knots ahead of the cold front will shift to the north and increase to near 20 knots. Gusts as highs as 30 knots or a little higher possible at times. VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours with a period of mid level moisture/clouds in the 8000 to 12000ft AGL developing following the cold frontal passage. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert