Office: BOI
FXUS65 KBOI 020257
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
857 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
.DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms remain this evening across
northern Harney and Baker Counties. While overall convective
activity has diminished early this evening, high-resolution
guidance continues to indicate the potential for another round
of thunderstorms later tonight. Increasing mid-level moisture,
combined with the approach of a weak shortwave, may be enough to
initiate additional storms overnight. Earlier this evening, a
few storms produced wind gusts up to 55 MPH, mainly across
south-central Idaho and Harney County, Oregon, though most
storms generated gusts in the 30-40 MPH range with little to no
rainfall.
Boise reached 102°F, marking the hottest day of the year so far
and the warmest temperature recorded since August 17, 2024.
Ontario hit 104°F, and Mountain Home topped out at 105°F.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, conditions appear more favorable for
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms as a weak upper-level
low tracks into the region. The most favorable environment for
stronger storms is expected across southeast Oregon Wednesday
afternoon, where forecast DCAPE values range between 1000–1500
J/kg and 0–6 km shear approaches 30 knots. This setup supports a
20% chance for strong storms capable of producing severe wind
gusts up to 60 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms to
continue through 04Z this evening across SE Oregon and the higher
terrain of SW Idaho with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms across SE Oregon and the central ID mountains on
Wednesday, and isolated elsewhere across southern ID. High density
altitude due to heat. Surface winds: NW-SE 5-15 kt, except SW 10-20
kt along the NV border and in the central ID mountains...becoming
WNW 10-20 kt area-wide after 18Z Wednesday. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: variable 5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible after 20Z Wednesday. Surface winds: NW 5-10
kt, becoming SE overnight, then turning to the west and increasing
to 8-12 kt with higher gusts after 18Z Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Harney
County on the far western side of our forecast area early this
evening. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in south
central Idaho, mainly south of the Twin Falls area through early
evening as well, but will dissipate after sunset. Tomorrow will
be another hot day, though not quit as hot as it is today. The
atmosphere will become quite unstable tomorrow afternoon and
there will be increasing mid-level moisture which will cause
a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms across southwestern
Idaho and southeastern Oregon. However, the lower portion of the
atmosphere will remain rather dry which will cause much of the
rain associated with these thunderstorms to evaporate before
reaching the ground. Still...up to a tenth of an inch or rain
is possible in the core of the strongest storms. Expect gusty
winds in the vicinity of showers, thunderstorms and
virga...diminishing after sunset. Another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is expected on Thursday afternoon with
the passage of weak cold front.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Expect mostly clear skies, dry
weather with temperatures near normal through the 4th of July
holiday and on Saturday. A significant warming trend will begin
on Sunday with hot and dry weather returning early next week.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Wednesday to
midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Wednesday night ORZ670-672>675.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
Office: PIH
FXUS65 KPIH 012357
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
557 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July
4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave
pushes east.
- Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the
70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Main impact in the short term period will be isolated to widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms both today as well
as Wednesday. Main area will be central mountains this afternoon
and evening but all locations could see isolated cells develop.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s and highs Wednesday 80s
mountains and low to mid 90s valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Expect extremely active convective activity both Thursday and
Friday with scattered thunderstorms Thursday and scattered to
widespread on Friday as an upper level wave pushes east through
Idaho. Both days expected to be much cooler with highs in the
70s and 80s only with the expected cloud cover and
precipitation. Will have 10 to 15 mph sustained winds up the
Snake River Plain both days. So we are expecting 4th of July
weather impacts for outdoor activities during the day into the
evening. Will start to see some drying Saturday with still
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the central and eastern
mountains. Sunday through Tuesday expected to be dry with hot
conditions returning with highs back into the 90s lower
elevations and 80s mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Refined timing as showers and thunderstorms wind down this
evening...best thunderstorm potential ending 01-02z/7-8pm, but some
stray shower potential continuing through 04-08z/10pm-2am depending
on the terminal. Gusty winds up to 35kts remain the main hazard.
Next round of storms kicks off 19-21z/1-3pm tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Today still holds as being the warmest and driest day of the week.
Moisture has already begun to shift into East Idaho, and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast mainly across higher elevations. Gusty
winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible. A repeat is forecast
through the remainder of the week, albeit slightly cooler and
slightly more humid with a slight increase in thunderstorm coverage
each day. Friday looks to the coolest and most humid with scattered
thunderstorms across all districts. Starting today most
thunderstorms are expected to be dry, though one or two may be able
to produce a wetting rain. By Friday, most thunderstorms should be
able to produce a wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture shifts east
for the weekend, allowing for a warming trend to return to East
Idaho. Humidities should return toward more seasonable levels, but
isolated thunderstorms may continue across higher terrain zones
through Sunday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...DMH
