Office: DMX
FXUS63 KDMX 160505
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1105 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
...Updated for 06z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
The general weather theme through the period will remain above
normal temperatures and little in the way of precipitation with
our primary window seeming to be around Wednesday or Thursday.
The pattern will remain similar to the recent past with
progressive flow and systems of Pacific origin keeping any arctic
cooling or significant moisture return at bay.
The short wave and deep PV anomaly moving through the Dakotas
this afternoon looks ominous via water vapor imagery and does
have deep QG forcing ahead of its path but very little moisture
will result in nothing more than high level cloudiness. A weaker
system following close behind, now moving through the Bitterroots,
will drop into the MO Valley tomorrow but with similar results.
This will be followed by brief long wave ridging into the start of
the coming work week keeping our forecast relatively warm and
dry.
The current Baja short wave will eventually be aided by
additional Pacific energy into the middle of next week introducing
some chances for light precipitation. Deterministic and ensemble
solutions are in fair agreement for this time range developing a
long wave through through the central CONUS. There are some
uncertainties with how or if north and south stream short waves
will eventually phase, but the general consensus is for a period
of weak, mainly kinematic forcing Wed into Thu. This will result
in only spotty deeper moisture keeping any precip on the light
side. The precip type mainly looks to be rain, but some light snow
is possible at night and on the back side as the system exits.
This will be followed by higher amplitude flow and relatively
cooler temps, but staying no worse than normal. There looks to be
some token precip chances into Day 7/Sat and beyond as waves drop
through the northwest flow but confidence is low at this point,
even for this time range.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1104 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
Few changes to previous forecast. High level bkn to overcast
moving through region now with light or light south winds. Expect
first system with thicker high clouds to exit region by 12 to 15z
but another patch of mid to high level clouds to follow by 23-05z.
Winds generally light shifting to north northwest and remaining
under 12kts for period. VFR conditions expected as well. /rev
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...REV
Office: DVN
FXUS63 KDVN 160459
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1059 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 121 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
This afternoon an area of high pressure stretched from north of
the Great Lakes, through Iowa and southwest into Oklahoma. As a
result, clear skies and light winds were reported across the
area. Temperatures across this region have climbed well into the
40s and are close to breaking 50 in some areas. This is well above
average for this time of year. A weak trof was located across the
Dakotas and will move towards the area for Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
Quiet weather with above average temperatures are expected through
the short term as zonal flow and high pressure are expected into
the area. A weak wave and cold front is expected tomorrow morning,
however the passage of this system will likely only result in some
cirrus clouds. Tonight, lows will drop into the 20s and we could
see some drainage fog in the river valleys. Have maintained the
patchy fog the overnight shift had. Today's high temps have shot
into the 50s as the solar insolation has won out. As for highs,
expect the same thing to happen tomorrow. Temps could be higher
than currently forecast but at this time still expect highs in the
40s. Overall a nice sensible weather day for the middle of
December.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
Very quiet early winter weather will continue through much of the
extended, with high pressure moving through the region through
Tuesday, noted by mainly clear skies and a gradual shift toward
south winds as the center passes to the east. This high will
continue to be represented by well above normal temperatures.
A deep progressive trof, though not entirely phases with southern
and northern stream energy is expected to move through the Midwest
Tuesday night through Thursday. Moisture should be drawn up ahead
of this trof, and depending on how far north the system can cut
off aloft, we may see some wrap around moisture into Thursday. For
now, rain amounts Wednesday appear quiet light, as the main
system moves along the gulf coast states. However, despite the
light nature, the likelihood of stratiform coverage suggests
potentially high pops. As the system, moves off, cold air will be
advected in, and depending on the upper air evolution of the cut
off low, we may see a transition to snow before precipitation
ends. At this point, any accumulation beyond a dusting appear
unlikely. After north winds pull seasonally cold air back over the
region, we will see a near normal end to the week with highs in
the lower to mid 30s and lows in the lower to mid 20s.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018
MVFR visibilities are being observed across a portion of central
and northern Illinois and as far west as areas just across the
Mississippi River in Iowa. Very light to calm winds along a
surface boundary will keep these lower visibilities of 4 to 6
miles into Sunday morning, mainly for KMLI, but potentially for
KBRL as well. Winds will shift to the west or west-northwest
during the day Sunday, yet stay light below 10kts. There will be
some cloud cover, but with just a cirrus shield with cloud heights
of greater than 20K ft.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Brooks
