Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 230554
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
154 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Surface high pressure has settled overhead, bringing mostly sunny,
cool, and dry conditions this afternoon. As winds settle to near calm
overnight, radiational cooling will be maximized amid clear skies.
As such, I did deviate a bit from straight NBM and blended with NBM10
for tonight's temperatures which will likely be the coldest
temperatures of the week for most areas. Lows will range from the mid
30s in far north Georgia to lower 40s in Middle Georgia. Though some
patchy frost will be possible elsewhere in north Georgia, more
sustained frost development is most likely again in Fannin, Union,
and Towns counties. A Frost Advisory has again been issued for these
areas for early Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, the center of the surface high will begin to slide to
the southeast, and flow aloft will transition from northwest flow to
become more zonal. With southerly low level flow returning, high
temperatures on Tuesday will rebound back toward normal, reaching the
low to mid 70s areawide. Finally, dewpoints were mixed lower than
straight NBM tomorrow afternoon. A few areas in central Georgia could
approach borderline Fire Danger minimum relative humidity criteria
tomorrow afternoon as a result but may remain just above thresholds.
RW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with only
minor changes made from the previous forecast. A wedge of high
pressure is still anticipated to develop over portions of
north Georgia by Friday, which will inhibit the warming trend
ongoing elsewhere across the forecast area. At this time, PoPs
through the weekend are limited to 20 percent or less, especially
with the frontal system late in the period trending slower, with a
later arrival time of showers and thunderstorms. The previous
discussion follows...
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Highlights:
-Mostly dry conditions and gradual warming can be expected through
the period.
-Rain may return to portions of North GA this weekend.
Mostly dry conditions continue at the start of the long term period
as surface high pressure remains situated across the Southeast. Quasi
zonal flow aloft will act to usher a few weak disturbances through
the region Wednesday through Saturday. The first will be accompanied
by a weak frontal boundary and will track across the Great Lakes
Region around mid- week. Guidance largely keeps the forecast area dry
as most of the upper level support stays to our north. Though would
not be surprised if portions North GA see some sprinkles/light rain
in addition to increased cloud cover on Wednesday and Thursday as the
front sags southward. Also during this time, high pressure starts to
slide offshore with a wedge eventually developing from the
northeast. Heading into Friday, long term guidance indicates another
system developing east of the Rockies and ejecting northeast across
the Central Plains. As this occurs flow aloft becomes more
northwesterly as ridging builds across the Central U.S. At the
surface, a wedge will become more prominent across the northeast and
flow at the lowest levels begins to take on more of a southerly
component. This will result in gradual moisture return in the way of
increasing cloud cover and potentially some rain by the weekend.
While PoPs through Sunday remain less than 20%, depending on the
track of Friday's system, any moisture associated with it could
interact with the wedge this weekend potentially resulting in some
light rain across the North.
Wednesday morning will be the coolest morning in the long term
period with forecast lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Forecast low
temperatures become much more mild closer to the weekend (lows in the
low 60s). Forecast high temperatures will generally range from the
70s to low 80s. Though with the wedge developing by late week,
temperatures within the wedge (northeast GA) may be slightly cooler.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Mostly VFR conditions will continue other than some patchy MVFR
vsbys in fog near CSG early this morning. High clouds from the NW
will be mostly thin. Winds will be light out of the SW to WSW.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High for all elements.
SEC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 49 76 52 76 / 0 10 0 10
Atlanta 52 75 56 76 / 0 10 10 10
Blairsville 47 69 45 71 / 10 10 10 10
Cartersville 48 73 50 77 / 0 10 10 10
Columbus 50 80 58 81 / 0 10 0 10
Gainesville 51 73 52 74 / 0 10 10 10
Macon 48 79 57 80 / 0 10 0 10
Rome 49 73 50 78 / 0 10 10 20
Peachtree City 48 77 54 78 / 0 10 10 10
Vidalia 51 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ006-008-009.
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC
