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Office: FFC

FXUS62 KFFC 151141
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
641 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
The final wave of precipitation is moving across the area with
several north-south oriented lines of heavier rainfall moving
across the area. The rainfall will taper off from west to east as
the Upper low lifts through the Tennessee Valley by daybreak
this morning and continues into the Ohio Valley by this afternoon.
The associated surface low will also lift to the northeast, over
the Carolinas by early this afternoon. As the upper level trough
base shifts over the Carolinas by 18Z, this will push the moisture
flow off the Gulf of Mexico east of the forecast area, allowing
drier air to filter into the area under west-northwest flow aloft.
Have continued the Flood Watch through 7am, with the areas of
heavy rains lifting northward over the same area, we may see
isolated Flash Flood warnings through this morning until the
moderate rain tapers off at most locations by noontime. Please see
the Flood Watch for more information. Surface winds will also
shift from northeast to northwest and west this morning, which
will also aid in drier air filtering into the area. While low
clouds will be slow to lift through this afternoon, as the upper
level trough lifts away from the forecast area it will allow
surface high pressure and more zonal flow to set up which will
allow skies to clear quickly this evening. Surface winds will be
slow to diminish, with 10-15mph winds continuing until just before
daybreak. While radiational cooling will have a hard time setting
up, temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across
much of the forecast area and have issued a freeze warning for
tonight with temperatures below freezing expected between midnight
and 8am, please see the Freeze Warning for more information.
Temperatures on Friday will remain cooler than normal but should
be in the 50s, up to 10 degrees warmer than the past few days in
several locations. Have stayed close to guidance temperatures
through the period.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Dry weather looks like it will dominate our area through the middle
of next week. The long term period begins with high pressure over
the southeast and a broad westerly flow aloft. A frontal boundary
pushes into the TN Valley on Monday but GFS and ECMWF show the
associated moisture diminishing as the front moves into GA. For now
will keep Monday dry. After that...northwest flow aloft prevails
over the southeast...with another front crossing the Appalachians
late Tuesday or early Wednesday. This front also looks like it will
be moisture starved. Temperatures will moderate through the period.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
RA will taper off west to east through 18Z.  CIGs will slowly
improve to MVFR by 21Z with drier air bringing VFR around 00Z.
Winds remain from the E/NE 5-10 kts but will diminish to light and
variable before shifting to the NW over ATL/CSG/MCN by 15Z and
AHN by 18Z, with wind speeds increasing to 10G20kts through 05Z
with 10kts continuing at most TAF site through 12Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  31  57  36 /  70   0   0   0
Atlanta         45  31  54  39 /  50   0   0   0
Blairsville     45  25  53  31 /  60  10   0   0
Cartersville    44  29  53  33 /  50   0   0   0
Columbus        49  33  58  38 /  30   0   0   0
Gainesville     45  30  55  37 /  60   5   0   0
Macon           51  32  57  36 /  50   0   0   0
Rome            43  28  54  33 /  40   0   0   0
Peachtree City  46  30  55  35 /  40   0   0   0
Vidalia         54  35  58  39 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Fannin...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...White...
Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Friday for
the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Butts...
Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...
Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Heard...Henry...
Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Taliaferro...
Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...
White...Whitfield...Wilkes.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Atwell