Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Rainfall are expected this evening through Tuesday afternoon.
Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible, especially
overnight. 1-2" of rain expected for most areas.
- Another wave of rainfall expected Friday into Saturday. This continues
to look like it would be a "cold rain", and even the small
winter weather potential that was there is decreasing with this
forecast issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
Wedged.
A stationary front across the Gulf and a strong High pressure along
the Atlantic seaboard has created soupy conditions for much of the
SE. Upper level flow remains out of the west, but cold air damming
along the mountains and surface winds out of the NE is creating a
pocket of SCT to BKN skies that extend as far south as Macon to
Columbus. What does that all mean? It's going to stay cool and moist
until an approaching front brings showers followed but heavier rain
tonight and into tomorrow to push some of the micro climate factors
out of the area.
Once that front arrives it will be cold rain for most of Tuesday. If
you're looking to get outside, bring a raincoat because I'm writing
tomorrow off as a bit of a washout with QPF totals ranging from half
an inch to an inch across most of the southeast. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible across the far southern portions of the CWA but
widespread thunderstorms are not expected at this time. The front is
pretty quick though and by Tuesday early afternoon most of the
precip should push off to the east.
Vaughn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
Quite the difference 24 hours can make in the forecast package. Long
term picks up Wednesday with what looks to be the only sunny day we
may get this week. 500mb shortwave ridging sets up over the area as
surface high slides by the area nearly overhead. With another
reinforcing shot of cold air having moved into the area with that
high pressure, highs will be in the 50s across the CWA except the
mountains, which will be in the 40s.
Biggest change to the forecast package happens on the back end of
this week. Initial wave with connections to the Arctic side of the
jet is still expected to move over the northeast dragging a surface
front towards north Georgia that will stall at or near the area.
Progged strength of the surface high over the northeast has weakened
substantially within the overall ensemble averages, coming down a
full 2-3 mb over the last 24 hours. We are still expecting a
shortwave to eject out of the 4 corners region within the southern
branch of the jet on Friday that will provide for broad lift and
development of a surface low that will progress over the area. With
the weakening surface high, the cold air damming isn't as strong, so
surface temps remain well above freezing, as thus even the slight
winter chances we had seem to be decreasing at this time. Looking
like another cold rain on Friday Night into Saturday, with the only
remaining question being just how much. Ensembles are a bit varied
with the overall strength of the southern system, which in turn
affects the northward extent of the overrunning moisture and where
the axis of best rainfall sets up.
A little more uncertainty as we go past this. The overall ensemble
average points to a front clearing the area Saturday morning and
bringing rainfall to an end, but some members do either lag the
front into Saturday or keep broad enough lift around/have a
potential secondary wave move through such that some showers or
rainfall lingers. We'll likely need to get a better idea of how the
initial wave is going to play out before we have more info.
Ensembles also show another potential wave pushing through the
area early next week. We won't complain (that's a lie, we'll
complain about it being 40 and raining because that's just
miserable) because this will continue to have good impacts on the
longer term drought conditions across Georgia.
Lusk
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
SCT/BKN MVFR will eventually become BKN/OVC MVFR. Winds will be East
for the remainder of the TAF cycle at 8-12kts. Some -SHRA is
possible beginning around 19Z before more widespread showers with
IFR CIGS settle in after 00Z.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on -SHRA timing.
High on all elements.
Vaughn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 38 55 30 51 / 100 80 0 0
Atlanta 42 51 29 51 / 100 60 0 0
Blairsville 34 48 22 50 / 100 70 0 0
Cartersville 39 50 24 52 / 100 50 0 0
Columbus 48 58 29 54 / 100 60 0 0
Gainesville 39 53 30 50 / 100 70 0 0
Macon 44 58 29 54 / 100 80 0 0
Rome 44 53 29 55 / 100 40 0 0
Peachtree City 42 54 25 52 / 100 60 0 0
Vidalia 48 63 35 57 / 90 100 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Vaughn
