Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 231056
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
656 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 654 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
- Dry Autumn conditions continue across the area through
Saturday.
- A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and
early evening for central and portions of north Georgia due to
dry fuels and RH below 25%. Fire danger conditions will be
likely once again on Friday.
- There is hope of rain returning Sunday into Tuesday.
Accumulations are likely light but much appreciated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Surface high pressure settling over the Southeast will promote
another day of crisp and dry conditions across north and central
Georgia. Light winds and clear skies overnight will enhance
radiational cooling, with low temperatures this morning expected to
be in the low 40s across the majority of the area this morning, with
even some upper 30s in the higher elevations of far north Georgia.
Considering the building high pressure and mostly clear skies over
the course of the day, temperatures this afternoon are forecast to
be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs primarily in the
mid 70s in north Georgia and upper 70s in central Georgia. Highs
will be cooler in the mountains, ranging from the mid 60s to low
70s. Strong subsidence under the high will also contribute to the
mixing down of dry air aloft during daytime heating. The low end of
dewpoint guidance (NBM 5th percentile and CONSShort) was favored,
leading to minimum RH values of 25% or less along and south of I-20
this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for these
locations for low RH and dry fuels, and will remain in effect until
8 PM this evening.
Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will shift towards the
Atlantic coast overnight. As this occurs, a weak shortwave rotating
around the southwestern side of the trough will push a moisture-
starved cold front through north Georgia. Dewpoints will briefly
increase into the upper 30s and low 40s ahead of the front, but no
precipitation or sensible weather is expected as it passes. A
reinforcing shot of cool, dry, continental air will enter north
Georgia in the wake of the front and ahead of another surface high
approaching from the northwest. After another night of efficient
radiational cooling, lows on Friday morning will be in the upper 30s
to low 40s to the north of I-20 and mid to upper 40s to the south.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s in north Georgia
within the cooler air behind the front, and mid to upper 70s in
central Georgia. The potential for Fire Danger conditions will need
to be monitored once again on Friday, especially considering drier
dewpoints behind the front and strong mixing once again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Post frontal conditions for much of the long term with a re-
enforcing push of cold air through the weekend. Our next chance for
rain in the long term outlook looks to be Sunday into Monday, as a
shortwave attempts to undercut the larger scale ridge in the central
CONUS. The ECMWF has come on board with shortwave energy making it
across the southeast, though timing between the GEFS and ECMWF shows
spread of 12 to 24 hrs Sunday night into Monday. Ensemble guidance
suggests modest PWATs around 1" across the area, though
deterministic runs of the ECMWF are more enthusiastic about moisture
out of the Caribbean. The big take aways from this is that
precipitation is becoming more likely, though amounts could be
mixed. Probabilistic QPF sits around 20-40% chance of 1" of rain,
which would not be enough to significantly affect drought
conditions. Any rain we do get though will be greatly appreciated.
Temperatures will remain mostly steady through the period with highs
in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. Wind will be NW at 3-6 kts to start the morning,
though could also be light and variable at times, and increase to
NW at 6-9 kts in the afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
King
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 74 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 76 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 67 36 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 75 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 79 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 72 44 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 78 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 77 42 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 77 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 78 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...King
