Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 050018
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
718 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
- Rounds of rainfall are expected, especially across Middle
Georgia, where the highest rainfall amounts are forecast
through the weekend. Flash flooding and river flooding are
not expected.
- Temperatures will be near seasonal norms to below normal
through the week ahead.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
Waves of rainfall will keep things damp through the short term.
The forecast area remains situated within southwest flow aloft
with perturbations bringing rounds of rainfall. Increasing
isentropic lift has led to fairly widespread light rain so far
with the highest concentration of moderate rainfall across Middle
Georgia. More persistent and widespread rainfall will overspread
the area from late this evening through Friday morning as a
midlevel wave swings eastward and a weak associated surface low
pushes along the northern Gulf Coast. Rainfall will then taper off
across north Georgia by midday as the axis of moisture shifts
southward. Still, intermittent showers can be expected into
tomorrow night across Middle Georgia within the corridor of moist
southwest flow. The highest QPF will be for areas south of I-20
through tomorrow night, consistent with the most persistent
rainfall, where amounts could reach near or over 1" by Saturday
morning. Farther north, amounts from a quarter to half inch would
be more typical.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side amid the clouds and
rainfall with highs today struggling to lift out of the 40s for
most and maxing out in the low 50s for a few spots. Low
temperatures will remain above freezing tonight into Friday
morning, even in far north Georgia where lows in the mid 30s are
forecast. This will prevent any wintry precip concerns Friday
morning. Highs Friday will again range from the mid-to-upper 40s
in northeast Georgia to as warm as the mid 50s in Middle Georgia.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
The long term period picks up on Saturday, in the midst of a
rainy and cloudy weather pattern across much of Georgia. Model
guidance continues to depict the greatest rainfall totals
maximized across middle/central Georgia, with generally 2 or more
inches of rain along and south of a line from Muscogee Co. to
Baldwin Co. to Glascock Co. Our confidence in this favored area
for the most rainfall is fairly high, as global ensembles and the
hi-res guidance that goes out 60+ hours show very similar
solutions at the surface and aloft regarding the track of a
surface low across the northern Gulf and the evolution of
mid-/upper-level troughing, respectively. Still, it would be
realistic to expect the 2-inch total rainfall contour to shift by
a row of counties north or south as the forecast evolves and is
fine-tuned over the next 24-48 hours.
Instability (MLCAPE, MUCAPE, mid-level lapse rates) will be
lacking during this rainy period, so not expecting convection (and
as a result, not expecting a flash flooding or river flooding
threat). If anything, periods of steady, moderate rainfall will
continue to chip away at the prolonged drought conditions across
parts of the state, evidenced by this week's drought improvement
following previous days of rainfall.
Monday will bring the cessation of rain and dense cloud cover, as
expansive high pressure and a dry airmass overtake much of the
eastern CONUS. Additionally, overnight/early morning lows on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be noticeably cooler than earlier in
the long term period, with widespread low-to-mid 30s and isolated
areas with lows in the 20s both mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
MVFR skies will continue to lower as showers push in from the
west. Should see CIGs down to IFR by 04z and then potentially into
LIFR by 06z where it should toe the line between IFR and LIFR
through most of tomorrow as showers continues with overall
easterly winds. Wedge will also be a factor in these GIGs. VIS
should lower to ~2SM through the overnight into tomorrow with only
minimal improvement into the afternoon and evening time frame
when there is expected to be a small break in showers.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on LIFR.
Medium to high confidence on all other elements.
Hernandez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 40 47 41 51 / 90 90 40 50
Atlanta 42 50 44 51 / 90 70 40 50
Blairsville 36 47 36 49 / 90 50 30 30
Cartersville 37 50 39 51 / 90 50 30 40
Columbus 43 55 46 53 / 90 80 70 80
Gainesville 41 47 42 51 / 90 70 40 40
Macon 42 54 44 54 / 90 90 70 80
Rome 41 54 41 55 / 90 40 20 30
Peachtree City 40 51 42 53 / 90 70 50 60
Vidalia 45 55 48 56 / 80 90 80 90
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Hernandez
