Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 271855
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
- Cool and breezy conditions expected through tomorrow under
the influence of cold air damming.
- Chances for showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms linger
into the evening before tapering off in earnest overnight.
- Another system will bring midweek rainfall and a reinforcing
push of cool air.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
With surface high pressure in place across eastern Canada, and
cool, stable air streaming in along the lee side of the
Appalachians, much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast are feeling
the effects of cold air damming. A swath of moisture out ahead of
a closed low advancing eastward at the mid-levels has supported
isentropically-forced showers and embedded thunderstorms
throughout the morning, serving to strengthen the cool dome.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1.5-2.5" have been observed in the
past 24 hours, with locally higher amounts up to 3-4" for portions
of northeast Georgia that saw stronger orographic influences. As
a result of the aforementioned factors, highs this afternoon are
expected to remain well below average (by as much as 12 to 15
degrees) -- in the upper 40s to mid-50s for areas within the wedge
airmass. For south central Georgia, highs will warm just a bit
more, into the 60s. Given cool highs, our diurnal range will be
relatively slim today, with overnight lows dropping just a few
degrees into the mid-40s to lower 50s.
Precipitation chances will continue to erode from southwest to
northeast beginning this afternoon, with more complete drying
likely by daybreak. Periods of drizzle or perhaps an isolated
light shower are nonetheless possible tomorrow afternoon,
especially across the northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Despite a lack of more meaningful reinforcing
rainfall, wedge conditions will linger throughout the day Tuesday
due to the absence of an eroding mechanism. As such, looking for
yet another day with comparatively cool highs in the 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Another round of rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday as
a stout mid-/upper-level trough and closed low barrel eastward
across the Southeast. This system will be more moisture-starved
relative to the system that has brought widespread rainfall today,
but favorable dynamics aloft will aid in ascent across north and
central Georgia. The stronger mid-/upper-level forcing will also
generate a comparatively stronger surface low, so frontal forcing
could intensify rainfall locally and even support a few embedded
thunderstorms. Our QPF (quantitative precip forecast) for this
midweek system is 0.5-1.0 inch generally along and north of I-20
with localized totals up to around 2.0 inches in the mountains.
South of I-20, the QPF is 0.10-0.50 inch. Like yesterday, ensemble
guidance shows spread of 0.10-0.30 inch between the 25th
percentile and 75th percentile for 6-hour rainfall totals, which
suggests decent confidence in the QPF.
A reinforcing shot of cool air will follow this system, with lows
in the lower to mid 40s on Thursday and upper 30s to lower 40s on
Friday. Widespread lows in the 30s are forecast on Saturday.
Highs, however, will moderate at the end of the week into the
weekend with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Thursday giving
way to mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. Temperatures will be some
10 to 15 degrees cooler in the mountains. Did add patchy frost to
the forecast on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings where
temperatures are progged to drop to 36 degrees or lower (mainly in
the mountains).
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Expect BKN to OVC IFR cigs to continue thru the majority of the
TAF pd. Intermittent LIFR cigs are possible primarily aft 00Z
through daybreak on Tuesday. Periods of -RA/-SHRA are possible
this afternoon, with -DZ lingering overnight. Any pcpn is likely
to be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR. Elevated NE/ENE winds will
persist, at 8-15kts sustained with gusts to 20-25kts psbl during
the afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence ceiling progression.
Medium confidence all other elements.
96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 48 54 46 55 / 80 20 40 90
Atlanta 50 57 48 56 / 60 10 50 90
Blairsville 46 56 42 50 / 80 20 70 90
Cartersville 50 60 46 56 / 60 10 60 90
Columbus 53 64 50 63 / 10 0 30 70
Gainesville 49 56 46 52 / 80 20 60 90
Macon 51 60 47 63 / 50 10 10 70
Rome 52 63 50 57 / 50 10 70 90
Peachtree City 49 58 46 57 / 40 0 40 80
Vidalia 55 61 50 71 / 40 10 10 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...96
