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ga discuss

Office: FFC

FXUS62 KFFC 140820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
The center of the upper low over the VA/MD/PA area will drift
slowly to the northeast during the short term. High pressure
will gradually build in from the west during the period. PW
values remain low today and CAPE values continue at a minimum for
parts of north and east GA. However...some deeper moisture and
instability begin to return along the western border...and will
continue for the the area generally from Columbus to Macon. Low pops
have been expanded to the northwest and across the central sections.
Expect a diurnal influence so thunderstorms should dissipate
overnight. For Wednesday...most of central GA and the northeast
mountains seem the most favorable areas for convection. Forecast
instability remains limited over parts of the north. Have stayed
close to guidance temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The long term period begins with a slightly drier airmass over
the state but that will be short lived as moisture begins to
increase again Wednesday night/Thursday morning. As the moisture
returns a weak surface Bermuda like ridge also builds in across
the northern gulf and southeastern states. This will push the next
main frontal system moving east out of the MS river valley
northward of the area also keeping the deepest moisture and
instability north of our CWA through the end of the work week. By
Friday afternoon/evening...whats left of the frontal boundary
will slowly move south into the state as the Bermuda ridge also
weakens. This will allow a developing shortwave to push SE out of
the Mid MS river valley and across AL/GA/SC for the weekend. This
wave will bring increased instability and deep layer moisture back
in across the region mainly Saturday through Monday. Bumped pops
up into the likely category for the same time frame and would not
be surprised to see the pops continue to go up as we get closer
to the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will stay near average with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and
low to mid 70s.



06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Daytime cumulus field
mainly few/sct050-060. Greater coverage in south mainly for KCSG
where enough chance of afternoon TSRA to include a prob30 (MCN may
be close, but other sites should have chance too low for precip
mention). Winds mainly NW at 6 to 8kts after 14z. Some isolated
areas of mvfr fog possible KCSG to KMCN 10z to 14z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High on all elements.



Athens          91  69  91  71 /   5   5  10  10
Atlanta         91  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
Blairsville     84  63  85  65 /   5  10  20  10
Cartersville    90  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus        93  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  10
Gainesville     88  69  89  71 /   5   5  10  10
Macon           93  71  92  73 /  20  20  20  10
Rome            91  69  92  71 /  10  10  10   5
Peachtree City  91  70  91  71 /  20  20  20  10
Vidalia         93  73  92  73 /  30  30  30  20