Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 050617
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
- Rounds of rainfall are expected, especially across Middle
Georgia, where the highest rainfall amounts are forecast
through the weekend. Flash flooding and river flooding are
not expected.
- Temperatures will be near seasonal norms to below normal
through the week ahead.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
Waves of rainfall will keep things damp through the short term.
The forecast area remains situated within southwest flow aloft
with perturbations bringing rounds of rainfall. Increasing
isentropic lift has led to fairly widespread light rain so far
with the highest concentration of moderate rainfall across Middle
Georgia. More persistent and widespread rainfall will overspread
the area from late this evening through Friday morning as a
midlevel wave swings eastward and a weak associated surface low
pushes along the northern Gulf Coast. Rainfall will then taper off
across north Georgia by midday as the axis of moisture shifts
southward. Still, intermittent showers can be expected into
tomorrow night across Middle Georgia within the corridor of moist
southwest flow. The highest QPF will be for areas south of I-20
through tomorrow night, consistent with the most persistent
rainfall, where amounts could reach near or over 1" by Saturday
morning. Farther north, amounts from a quarter to half inch would
be more typical.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side amid the clouds and
rainfall with highs today struggling to lift out of the 40s for
most and maxing out in the low 50s for a few spots. Low
temperatures will remain above freezing tonight into Friday
morning, even in far north Georgia where lows in the mid 30s are
forecast. This will prevent any wintry precip concerns Friday
morning. Highs Friday will again range from the mid-to-upper 40s
in northeast Georgia to as warm as the mid 50s in Middle Georgia.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
The long term period picks up on Saturday, in the midst of a
rainy and cloudy weather pattern across much of Georgia. Model
guidance continues to depict the greatest rainfall totals
maximized across middle/central Georgia, with generally 2 or more
inches of rain along and south of a line from Muscogee Co. to
Baldwin Co. to Glascock Co. Our confidence in this favored area
for the most rainfall is fairly high, as global ensembles and the
hi-res guidance that goes out 60+ hours show very similar
solutions at the surface and aloft regarding the track of a
surface low across the northern Gulf and the evolution of
mid-/upper-level troughing, respectively. Still, it would be
realistic to expect the 2-inch total rainfall contour to shift by
a row of counties north or south as the forecast evolves and is
fine-tuned over the next 24-48 hours.
Instability (MLCAPE, MUCAPE, mid-level lapse rates) will be
lacking during this rainy period, so not expecting convection (and
as a result, not expecting a flash flooding or river flooding
threat). If anything, periods of steady, moderate rainfall will
continue to chip away at the prolonged drought conditions across
parts of the state, evidenced by this week's drought improvement
following previous days of rainfall.
Monday will bring the cessation of rain and dense cloud cover, as
expansive high pressure and a dry airmass overtake much of the
eastern CONUS. Additionally, overnight/early morning lows on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be noticeably cooler than earlier in
the long term period, with widespread low-to-mid 30s and isolated
areas with lows in the 20s both mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
Widespread LIFR and IFR conditions (200 to 900 ft AGL and
visibility of 2 to 5 SM) will continue in north and central
Georgia through at least 06Z Saturday. Widespread rain and drizzle
are expected through 16Z Friday, then rainfall should be more
focused in central Georgia. Winds will remain light (6 kt or less)
in the region through 06Z Saturday.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence in tower height ceilings through 16Z Friday.
Moderate confidence in a period of improved visibility and
ceilings between 18Z Friday and 00Z Saturday.
High confidence in light winds an continued precipitation.
Hernandez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 47 41 51 37 / 70 30 40 10
Atlanta 50 44 51 41 / 60 30 40 10
Blairsville 47 36 49 31 / 30 10 10 10
Cartersville 50 39 51 36 / 30 20 20 10
Columbus 55 46 53 45 / 70 60 70 20
Gainesville 47 42 51 37 / 50 20 30 10
Macon 54 44 54 44 / 80 60 80 30
Rome 54 41 55 38 / 20 10 20 0
Peachtree City 51 42 53 40 / 60 40 50 10
Vidalia 55 48 56 47 / 90 70 90 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Hernandez
FXUS62 KFFC 050651
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
- Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected, mainly across
central Georgia, through the weekend.
- Flash flooding and river flooding are not expected.
- Below average temperatures will continue in north and
central Georgia through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
Rain Chances through Saturday:
A deep fetch of sub-tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific and
Gulf will continue to stream over Georgia through Saturday. Multiple
weak shortwaves riding through the southwest flow aloft will
interact with this moisture, leading to several rounds of rainfall.
Due to the deepest moisture (PW values 1.4 to 1.8 inches) hanging
out over central and southern Georgia, the bulk of the rain today
and Saturday should fall south of Interstate 20. Rainfall totals
of 0.20 to 0.80 inches are expected between Atlanta and Macon,
with 0.70 to 1.30 inches possible south of Macon. A lack of
instability (MUCAPE of 200 J/kg or less) should prevent severe
weather from being a concern.
Temperature Outlook:
Widespread cloud cover and areas of rainfall today should keep
temperatures towards the cooler side of the model guidance. This
looks like it will be especially true for central Georgia. Due to
these concerns we lowered today's forecast high temperatures down
to the 25th percentile of the NBM. Most of northern Georgia should
be limited to highs in the 40s, while central Georgia should see
a mix of 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. A slight upward trend
in temperatures is anticipated on Saturday in north Georgia, where
afternoon highs should climb back to around 50 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
We pick up the long term on Saturday night where rain and showers
will still be ongoing across central Georgia. Complex upper level
pattern will continue to evolve into Monday. Upper level jet is
bifurcated with clear northern and southern branches. Impulse within
the southern branch will be clearing the CWA by Saturday night, but
southwest flow will remain over the area keeping moisture around and
shower chances in place through the day on Sunday across north and
central Georgia. Some questions remain on just how far north that
moisture will be able to get - ensembles lean towards another wave
of rain that primarily impacts central Georgia.
Yet another shortwave will dig within the southern branch into
the area Monday. This system may struggle to access moisture, but
models do indicated some chance of seeing a few more showers
before a cold front pushes through the area. This will finally
bring an end to a very wet and miserable weekend for many in north
and central Georgia, but not before central Georgia gets a much
needed 1-2" of rainfall. Colder air will filter in and skies will
clear, bringing lows below freezing across much of the CWA for
Tuesday morning. There is a decent chance some folks might even
see that bright ball of light in the sky on Tuesday as high
pressure settles over us and temperatures warm into the 50s.
Another quick hitting system may be possible by Wednesday evening
into Thursday as another front approaches the area associated with a
larger system moving over the Great Lakes. A lot of model
differences across the ensembles as to whether this frontal passage
will be dry - for now, just worth monitoring.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
Widespread LIFR and IFR conditions (200 to 900 ft AGL and
visibility of 2 to 5 SM) will continue in north and central
Georgia through at least 06Z Saturday. Widespread rain and drizzle
are expected through 16Z Friday, then rainfall should be more
focused in central Georgia. Winds will remain light (6 kt or less)
in the region through 06Z Saturday.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence in tower height ceilings through 16Z Friday.
Moderate confidence in a period of improved visibility and
ceilings between 18Z Friday and 00Z Saturday.
High confidence in light winds an continued precipitation.
Albright
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 47 41 52 33 / 70 30 40 10
Atlanta 49 42 51 37 / 60 30 40 10
Blairsville 46 35 48 29 / 30 10 10 10
Cartersville 49 38 51 33 / 30 20 20 10
Columbus 53 45 53 42 / 70 60 70 20
Gainesville 47 41 51 35 / 50 20 30 10
Macon 52 45 53 40 / 80 60 80 30
Rome 52 40 55 36 / 20 10 20 0
Peachtree City 50 41 52 36 / 60 40 50 10
Vidalia 53 47 55 45 / 90 70 90 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Albright
