Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

fl discuss

Office: JAX

FXUS62 KJAX 191935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/...

Backdoor cold front is still wedged along the coast of southeast
Georgia and slowly lifting north. The associated dense sea fog
bank over the nearshore waters is getting pushed onshore and
being mixed out as soon as it hits the warmer land areas. The
bulk of this fog bank will likely get completely scoured out by
the late evening hours. As a result, some of the model data seems
be too bullish showing sea fog drifting inland along the I-95
corridor this evening. Fog will likely hold off until late tonight
when areas of fog will be possible due to the continued moist
low-level onshore flow from the Atlantic. A few spotty showers off
the Atlantic cannot be completely ruled out in this pattern but
not enough to warrant placement in the forecast at this time.

Another warm day expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds east
of the area. Near record temps will be possible across locations
well inland. Onshore flow will keep temps a little lower at the
beaches. A few light showers will be possible in moist onshore
flow. A little better chance for some shower activity will be
closer to the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as a weak
embedded wave moves north around the western periphery of large
upper high.

.SHORT TERM...Tue night through Thu...

Continued above normal temperatures with a warming trend with
mostly dry conditions and late night/morning fog as upper level
ridge strengthens across the region. The surface ridge axis will
be north of the region, which will bring prevailing ESE surface
flow which could bring some passing light coastal showers over the
adjacent Atlantic waters and just inland associated with some weak
coastal troughs as they pivot westward. Could also have some early
evening showers generally west of Highway 441 Tue night due to sea
breeze interactions, but overall despite a decent cumulus field
each day, the mid and upper levels will be too stable and too dry
to support deeper convective growth and tend to inhibit shower
formation. Late night and morning fog will continue to be the main
sensible weather hazard over the short term hazard, with dense fog
advisories likely.

High temperatures will continue well above normal with values in
the mid/upper 70s coast to low 80s inland. Lows will generally
range in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Fri through Mon...

Continued warmth with gradually increasing rain chances this
period. Friday an influx of moisture associated with a weak
tropical wave moving across the FL peninsula will pivot across the
local area and interact with sea breezes and diurnal heating to
bring a low chance of showers. Dry conditions prevail Sat as mean
layer ridging begins to weakening across the area, with only a low
chance of sea breeze showers across our southern FL zones. Sun
into Mon increasing rain chances as a frontal system drifts
eastward toward the MS River Valley with increasing mid/upper
level WSW flow out of the GOMEX raising moisture content and
bringing some weak mid level forcing across the area, especially
Sunday into Sun night. Models shear out dynamics and decrease
moisture as the front begins to sag southward across SE GA late
Sun night into Mon, with decreasing rain chances into Mon across
NE FL as the boundary pushes across the area as more of a backdoor
cold front.



VFR conditions expected to prevail through this evening. IFR
conditions will be possible after midnight but models are starting
to back off quite a bit with the sea fog along the coast this
evening. Have left the more pessimistic forecast tonight in place
for now but confidence in widespread dense fog is decreasing.



Dense sea fog expected to lift by this evening. Some additional
fog could develop tonight but confidence is not very high in sea
fog becoming dense. High pressure northeast of the area will
remain firmly in control through the rest of the week.
Southeasterly flow less than 15 knots will prevail through the end
of the week and into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Low Risk.


AMG  60  82  64  83 /  10  20  10  10
SSI  60  72  61  75 /  10  20  20  10
JAX  61  80  64  81 /  10  20  10  10
SGJ  64  78  64  78 /  10  20  10  10
GNV  62  84  64  84 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  63  85  65  85 /  10  20  10   0


AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM.




Office: EYW
Office: MLB FXUS62 KMLB 191958 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 258 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal through Late Week... TONIGHT-TUE... Stout deep layer high pressure centered offshore the southeastern seaboard is producing a low-mid level southeast wind flow. A few pockets of higher moisture are shown rotating around this high. One was presently affecting the southern peninsula and another is forecast overnight, again mainly over the southern peninsula. The models only generate very low precip amounts mainly just south of Martin county. Will carry a small shower chance there the rest of the afternoon for a few spots along the Space/Treasure Coast. But MOS PoPs for the second moisture pocket overnight are too low to include in the forecast. Overnight lows will be more mild due to the onshore flow, mainly mid 60s inland/north coast and around 70 from south Brevard to the Treasure Coast. A few spots may have record warm lows for Tue. On Tue, the GFS shows the pocket of higher moisture lifting northwestward and affecting the west side of the peninsula. The model only spits out a little precip west of our area late in the day, so will go with a dry forecast locally. It will continue warm and be even a little more humid as southeast flow boosts dew points into the mid-upper 60s. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s inland and lower 80s along the coast. WED-THU... Highly amplified H30-H20 jet pattern with the lifting portion extending from the Central Plains to Hudson Bay is not conducive to a rapid pattern shift. Indeed, the core of the jet is too far to the NW to even nudge the axis of an H100-H70 high pressure ridge over the W Atlc into the central Atlc. As such, this ridge will remain in place through midweek, keeping the lcl airmass well capped while maintaining a deep lyr SErly flow. Sat/RAP40 analysis shows marginal low/mid lvl moisture upstream extending east of the srn Bahamas and regional H85-H70 lapse rates AOB 4.0C/KM. Minimal PoPs outside of brief, isold low-topped shras in the Gulf Stream. Fcst will remain dry. Warm/moist ocean air will keep temps abv avg...max temps generally in the L/M80s...min temps M/U60s. EXTENDED...(modified prev disc) The mid level ridge is forecast to weaken and retrograde W/SW into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A persistent east to southeast wind flow will keep temperatures above avg with upper 70s along the immediate coast to the mid 80s inland. While warm, record highs in the M/U80s generally look out of reach. There will be a better chance for a few record warm Min temps along the coast due to the persistent onshore flow...mins from the M/U60for the present small area of isolated showers.s along the coast to the L60s inland. Breezy E/SE flow will occasionally produce a few showers over the Atlc that cross portions of the coast, but overall rain chances look quite low with QPF no greater than 0.10". Will handle this with a silent 10 percent PoP. The primary weather hazard will be patchy dense fog in the early mornings over the interior. There is no indication at this time of significant cold air intrusion before the end of the month. This may result in a record warm February for some locations in central Florida, such as Orlando and Melbourne. && .AVIATION...VFR with breezy E/ESE winds this afternoon especially from VRB-SUA. For tonight a brief broken MVFR ceiling of 2000-2500 ft AGL cannot be ruled out along the coast as marine stratocu move ashore. Inland areas should remain VFR with the exception of KLEE where MVFR visibilities and ceilings are expected late tonight into early Tuesday. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-TUE...Quite strong high pressure over the Atlantic with an axis extending into the southeast U.S. is producing a freshening east-southeast low level wind flow. Speeds are forecast 10-15 knots except over the cooler northern shelf waters (5-10 knots) and over the Gulf Stream (15-20 knots) where an exercise caution statement will be necessary. The wave models show 3-4 feet seas nearshore and 4-5 offshore but with a pronounced wind chop (5-6 second wave periods). WED-FRI...The axis of the Atlc high pres ridge will remain draped over north FL from mid to late week, generating a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze with ocnl gusts in the 15-20KT range. Models still hinting a brief window of of sustains 20KT winds off the Treasure Coast late Tue aftn/Tue evng. Duration appears too short to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time...probably will be able to handle with a short term Caution headline. Seas 3-5FT thru Wed evng, building to 5-6FT in the Gulf Stream by daybreak Thu as the persistent erly flow begins to push increasing swells into the east FL coast. Brief, isold shras at best. && .CLIMATE... Record warm minimum temps and year set for February 20, 21, and 22. February 20 February 21 February 22 Daytona Beach 66-1961 68-1989 69-2008 Orlando Intl 69-1961 68-1989 69-1945 Sanford 68-1961 66-2002 68-2008 Melbourne 68-1961 70-1989 69-2003 Vero Beach 72-1961 72-1961 73-1961 Ft. Pierce 73-1961 73-1961 73-1961 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 80 66 81 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 67 84 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 71 82 69 81 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 71 83 70 81 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 67 85 66 86 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 66 84 66 86 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 70 82 70 80 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lascody MID-LONG TERM...Bragaw AVIATION...Combs
Office: MOB FXUS64 KMOB 200001 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 601 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...VFR conditions will continue through the evening before decreasing overnight as low clouds and patchy fog develop. Some of the fog could be dense at times with LIFR/IFR conditions possible late tonight. VFR conditions redevelop by late Tuesday morning. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper trough over the western Conus deepens as an upper high located off the Carolina coast builds. Energy moving through the western trough pushes a surface front south across the Mid Mississippi River Valley as the building upper high builds a surface ridge stretching west across the Southeast even more, strengthening low level flow off the Gulf over the Southeast. After a initial drier slug of air moves inland over the Southeast early tonight, deep layer moisture increases significantly later tonight through Tuesday. Guidance is advertising precip h20 values reaching 1.5-1.75" by the end of the day Tuesday(well above seasonal levels). Combined with a shortwave approaching the northern Gulf coast Tuesday, will see an increase in precip, with these being mainly low level showers in the morning as any convective activity will have a seriously hard time breaking a serious subsidence inversion from the upper high. By Tuesday afternoon, as the shortwave approaches the coast, the moist unstable airmass is expected to combine with added upper instability to over- ride the synoptic scale subsidence from the upper high and have some tsra begin to mix in. With temps, subsidence from the the upper ridge remains firmly in control of temps, with well above seasonal temps expected to continue.With record highs for tomorrow generally around 80F, chances are very good that these records will be tied or bested. With the onshore flow continuing, there is a moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday. A neap tidal cycle is the only thing holding back from a high risk attm. /16 SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A southwesterly mid level flow pattern will prevail across the central Gulf Coast region through the short term period between a large ridge of high pressure that will be oriented from the western Atlantic Ocean through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a broad trough over the western CONUS. Much above normal temperatures will persist across our area through Thursday night as warm and moist southeasterly to southerly low level flow persists between a surface ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic and a slow moving cold front moving from the Plains states toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions. Near record or potentially record high temperatures remain possible Wednesday and Thursday. A slight increase in deep layer moisture along with ascent provided by a shortwave trough lifting northward from the Gulf of Mexico through our forecast area on the western periphery of the ridge will provide a chance of rain showers to the area Tuesday night, and will keep POPs around 30% over most locations. Conditions also remain favorable for at least some patchy fog formation again across the forecast area again Tuesday night and will include mention in the forecast after midnight. An axis of deeper moisture will become oriented across our northwestern zones on Wednesday within increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of the aforementioned front. The best chance of POPs will therefore be favored generally along and west of I-65 during the day Wednesday, though we will keep at least a slight chance in place over eastern and southern portions of the area. There may be enough weak instability for a few rumbles of thunder again Wednesday, particularly over the western/northwestern portions of the area, so have also included mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms. The axis of moisture actually looks to retrograde northwestward with time Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper level ridge of high pressure builds westward into much of Florida and the adjacent eastern Gulf of Mexico. POPs should decrease over central and eastern areas Wednesday night and Thursday as a drier and more subsident airmass arrives over this portion of the region, but will maintain low POPs in the west/northwest zones. The drier airmass should be in place over our entire region Thursday night, so will maintain a dry forecast area wide then. The warm and muggy weather pattern otherwise prevails into Thursday night. /21 LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Southwesterly mid level flow will increase across our forecast area late Friday through the weekend as the upper level trough advances eastward across the Plains and toward the Mississippi Valley region. Friday looks to remain dry except for perhaps our far western zones, where enough moisture/lift could arrive to provide isolated showers over southeast Mississippi. The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase this weekend as a zone of deeper moisture arrives over our area ahead of the approaching cold front. Current model trends favor frontal passage across our CWA late Saturday night into Sunday. The front may become stationary or diffuse near the coast Sunday night into Monday. There are some indications that additional shortwave troughs may propagate over our area along the stalled/diffuse boundary Sunday night into Monday, so will maintain a chance of POPs into Monday. The streak of much above normal temperatures continues into Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures may arrive behind the front Sunday into Monday, though readings still trend above normal into early next week. /21 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at:
Office: TBW FXUS62 KTBW 192328 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 628 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs. Some patchy fog is expected but should stay north of I-4. Winds will continue to be light out of the E/SE overnight before picking back up tomorrow afternoon. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 251 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight-Tuesday)... Surface high pressure centered just offshore of New England is ridging down across the area, with ridging aloft centered just to the east of the state. This will keep E/SE flow in place across the area with moderate winds strong enough to prevent sea breeze development Tuesday afternoon. A little pocket of moisture will lift over the area in the flow tonight into Tuesday, and may have a stray shower or two Tuesday afternoon, but left chances at a silent 10 percent. Patchy fog will again be possible mainly across the Nature Coast overnight. Temperatures will continue to be warm, with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)... A series of mid/upper level shortwaves will continue to move across the central and eastern U.S. well north of the region with ridging holding over the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile surface high pressure will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean back across the Florida peninsula into the weekend before a cold front moves into the southeast U.S. and eventually washes out across north Florida early next week. For our area this pattern will mean a continuation of the warm temperatures, more typical of late April/early May, with a few record highs possible. It will remain mainly dry, but late in the week through the weekend there could be just enough moisture when combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes to pop a couple of showers here and there. Overall though it will remain partly to mostly sunny, warm, and dry with the only potential problem being some late night and early morning low clouds and fog. MARINE... High pressure will ridge across the waters through the period, keeping an E/SE flow across the waters with a weak sea breeze possible near the coast during the second half of the week. Some patchy fog will be possible over the northern coastal waters overnight. No headlines expected through the period. FIRE WEATHER... No concerns. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 68 85 69 85 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 68 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 65 85 67 86 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 69 86 69 85 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 62 87 65 86 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 70 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$
Office: TAE FXUS62 KTAE 192325 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 625 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]... IFR CIGs are possible in the early morning hours along with some patchy fog. VFR conditions will return in the late morning to early afternoon hours. Southeasterly winds will be fairly light. && .PREV DISCUSSION [304 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the east. Plenty of moisture in the boundary layer, dry air aloft and calm or light winds should lead to another night of low level cloudiness and fog development. No reason to believe that the fog won't become dense in some locations. Lows will be around 60. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Well above average temperatures will continue through the short term with deep layer southerly to southwesterly flow. A few showers are possible, mainly on Tuesday and Tuesday night, but upper level ridging will keep most of the forcing for rainfall north and west of the area. Thus, shower chances appear to be 30 percent or less. High temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 80s, except upper 70s along the coast. These temperatures are around 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Mild overnight lows mainly in the 60s are expected, which are 15-20 degrees above average. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the local weather pattern, keeping most of the active weather to our north and west. This is expected to result in rather stagnant weather through the long term with continued well above average temperatures. A weak front may arrive around Sunday with shower chances at around 20-40 percent. .MARINE... East to south winds will dominate over the next few days with wind speeds of 10-15 knots. Brief periods of exercise caution are possible, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of fog are possible near the coast tonight into Tuesday morning. .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns are anticipated due to RH values remaining well above critical thresholds for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... While there are low end chances of precipitation in the forecast, rainfall amounts over the next few days will be minimal. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce continues to remain in minor flood, but it is falling and should fall into action stage on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 83 64 84 61 / 0 20 20 10 10 Panama City 63 78 66 79 65 / 0 30 30 10 0 Dothan 61 82 65 83 62 / 0 30 30 20 10 Albany 61 82 65 83 62 / 0 20 20 20 10 Valdosta 62 83 65 84 63 / 0 20 20 10 0 Cross City 63 85 63 85 60 / 0 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 62 77 65 77 64 / 0 20 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barry SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...McD MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Lahr HYDROLOGY...DVD
Office: MFL FXUS62 KMFL 192016 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 316 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ATLANTIC WATERS... .DISCUSSION... A mid level disturbance over the Central Bahamas moves west northwest and across South Florida tonight around the high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters tonight. This will allow for an increase in moisture over South Florida tonight leading to a slight chance of showers over most of South Florida. The only exception to this is over the southeastern portion of South Florida where a chance of showers is possible this evening. The high over the Western Atlantic waters will strengthen from 592 mbs tonight to 595 mbs late Tuesday through Wednesday. This will allow for the easterly winds over South Florida to increase to breezy to windy conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier weather will also work into South Florida from the Western Atlantic into South Florida allowing for dry conditions. .EXTENDED FORECAST... The high will then slowly weaken late this week into this weekend while moving westward into the Florida Peninsula. This will allow for the easterly wind flow to continue, as the winds slowly relax over South Florida. Another mid level disturbance is also forecast by the long range models to move west northwest from the Atlantic waters through the Florida Keys late this week. This will allow for a few showers to affect the east coast metro areas late this week before going dry across all of South Florida this weekend. Temperatures will be running above at 5 degrees above normal for highs and lows running about 10 to 15 degrees above normal across South Florida this week. Highs each day will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s, except lower to mid 70s east coast metro areas. && .MARINE... The winds will be easterly at 15 to 20 knots with the near-shore Gulf waters at 10 to 15 knots. The only exception to this is the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters where the wind speeds will be around 20 knots tonight through Tuesday morning. The easterly winds will continue to be at 15 to 20 knots for most of South Florida waters for the middle to end of the week, except the near- shore Gulf waters where the speeds will be 10 to 15 knots. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to be 4 to 6 feet for the week, with the Gulf seas at 4 feet or less through this week. Therefore, a SCA will be up for the Atlantic Waters through at Tuesday morning and an SCEC for rest of the waters. The only exception is the near- shore Gulf waters where no headlines will be needed. && .BEACH FORECAST... The breezy to windy easterly wind flow will allow for the likely threat of Rip Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida through most of the week. Therefore, the High Risk Of Rip Currents has been extended until Thursday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 83 73 83 74 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 75 83 76 / 20 40 10 10 Miami 84 74 84 75 / 20 40 10 10 Naples 86 68 87 69 / 10 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671. GM...None. && DISCUSSION...54/BNB MARINE...54/BNB BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB