fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 162342
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
642 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Dense Fog Tonight portions of Inland Northeast Florida
- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast Florida Beaches
- Extended Dry Spell through Next Week. Severe to Extreme Drought
Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley. Drought
expanded to expand next week. Be very cautious with outdoor
flames check for local burning bans
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
No significant changes to ongoing forecast with dry cold front
pressing southward across the local area tonight. Breezy WSW winds
subsided after sunset this evening, and will shift WNW through the
night trailing the frontal passage, with speeds generally less
than 6-8 kts at the coast to < 6 kts inland. Main sensible weather
impact tonight will be brief, locally dense fog just ahead of the
surface front across portions of northeast FL after 06z through
12z Monday where shallow moisture advection ahead of the front and
weak winds will cause areas of fog. High resolution guidance
continues to favor fog potential south of I-10 tonight, with the
dense fog potential (visibly < 1/4 mile) mainly across Marion
county toward daybreak.
Low temperatures were on track to fall into the mid/upper 40s
across inland southeast GA to the mid/upper 50s across northeast
Florida,
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
This afternoon...Mostly sunny, warm and breezy with Max Temps
around 80F ahead of approaching frontal boundary from the North.
Sustained winds around 15 mph with peak wind gusts in the 25-30
mph range from the West.
Tonight...Dry frontal boundary pushes through SE GA this evening
and slows down and stalls across North Central FL late tonight
with decrease in winds after sunset. Min temps expected to fall
into the mid/upper 40s across inland SE GA behind the boundary,
while 50s are expected elsewhere as the frontal boundary slows
down. Main impact tonight will be dense fog potential ahead of the
slowing frontal boundary as low level moisture pools from the NE
Gulf and helps to set up another combo radiational/advective fog
event across inland NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor after
midnight, which should progress Eastward from the I-75 corridor
near GNV/OCF to the St. Johns River Basin south of JAX, impacting
mainly Putnam/Flagler counties towards sunrise Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
A vigorous mid to upper level shortwave trough over the New England
coast will lift northeastward through Nova Scotia and shift a deep
mid to upper level trough into the western Atlantic waters off the
Mid Atlantic coast. This will drive a cold front extending from a
strong low pressure center over New Brunswick south of the area on
Monday with ridging aloft over the central US shifting eastward and
supporting surface high pressure from the NNW building north of the
area. While skies will be sunny, light northerly winds turning more
northeasterly will limit highs along the coast to the upper 60s to
low 70s while warming to the mid 70s over inland SE GA and the
upper 70s to near 80 over inland NE FL.
Monday night, high pressure to the north will move across the
central Appalachians into the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge of
VA allowing winds locally overnight to remain light but turn
more east northeasterly. High level cirrus will stream eastward
over the area as jet stream winds increase aloft while the cold
front to the south stalls over central FL and just north of the
Bahamas.
Tuesday, the high will move just northeast of the region near the
NC outer Banks as ridging aloft shifts off the east coast with a
weak shortwave crossing the OH valley. Skies will become sunny as
jet stream winds lighten and become northwesterly and allow highs
to warm into the low 80s over inland NE FL, upper 70s over inland
SE GA, but cooler at the coast with low to mid 70s due to easterly
light winds from the Atlantic nearshore waters.
Tuesday night, low level ridging will be over the area as high
pressure extends from the east northeast. This will promote calm
winds overnight and under mostly clear skies will support inland
areas of fog. Lows will be near normal around 50F over inland SE GA,
low to mid 50s over inland NE FL and the upper 50s to low 60s
along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
The long term period will feature mid to upper level ridging over
the region from the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support low
level ridging staying over the area through Friday with increased
500mb heights aloft supporting near record daily high temperatures
each afternoon. Weak winds under low level ridging parked over the
area will support areas of fog developing across inland NE FL, but
south of Waycross. A weak seabreeze will develop each afternoon
with east to southeast winds with southerly winds on Friday as
surface high pressure moves eastward into the Atlantic waters. A
marginal potential exists for sea fog Thursday into Friday as
dewpoints recover into the upper 60s from the St Johns river basin
to the coastal waters due to southerly low level flow and sea
surface temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
Further increase in dewpoints upward would lend greater confidence
in sea fog development and further forecasts will help determine
this potential.
This weekend, the ridging pattern changes with the mid to upper
level ridging shifting east from the Bahamas to Bermuda and the
western Atlantic as a shortwave trough moving eastward into the
Southeast states. The GFS global model is currently faster with
this next trough progression while the ECMWF is much slower with
a deeper trough emerging towards the mid south from TX on Sunday.
With timing differences, am placing only isolated chances for
showers over inland SE GA for Saturday with silent pops for
Sunday as increasing moisture ahead of the trough and southwesterly
flow may kick off a few showers despite uncertainty in the timing
of the system associated surface cold front.
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s inland Wednesday
through Friday with upper 70s at the coast. Highs will lower
slightly this weekend with low 80s inland and near 80 at the coast
as southwest flow warms the beaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
VFR through 06z under westerly winds < 10 kts. Winds will
transition from WSW to WNW following dry frontal passage
overnight. TEMPO MVFR continued for VQQ after 07z with better
fog/stratus potential near GNV where prevailing MVFR was indicated
at 07z with TEMPO IFR 07-11z. VFR develops after 12z with winds
NNE through 00z Monday < 10 kts inland to 8-12 kts at SGJ.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
The small craft advisory for portions of the offshore waters was
canceled and replaced with a Small Craft Exercise Caution
overnight tonight with W to NW winds 15-20 kts near and trailing
the frontal passage.
Westerly winds this evening shift northwest to north overnight
trailing a dry frontal passage. High pressure builds northeast of
the region Monday into Tuesday with a return of easterly winds. The
high builds east of the local waters mid to late week. A daily east
coast sea breeze is expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Moisture levels will improve today with MinRH values staying above
critical levels this afternoon ahead of the approaching front, but
higher surface and transport winds will result in areas of high
dispersions for inland locations. The front will move south across
the area overnight with high pressure building to the north with
light northerly winds becoming northeasterly later in the afternoon.
Drier northerly flow inland will lead to critically low MinRH
values. Lighter winds and lower mixing heights will bring fair to
poor dispersions to the area Monday. Tuesday the high will move to
our northeast with light easterly winds turning southeasterly in
the afternoon over Southeast GA. However, minRH levels will
approach critical levels northwest of Waycross. Fair to poor
dispersions in the afternoon hours will repeat Tuesday. Midweek to
Friday, warm and dry conditions will prevail with low level
moisture recovery, but no rain expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...
WED 11/19 THU 11/20 FRI 11/21 SAT 11/22
Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1958 86/1988 84/1991 84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 82/1984 86/1988 82/2004 81/1997
Gainesville, FL (GNV) 90/1906 88/1906 86/1973 86/1906
Alma, Georgia (AMG) 82/1942 83/1942 83/2011 83/2011
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 47 73 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 57 69 56 73 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 54 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 75 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 55 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 56 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 170104
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
804 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
- Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures will continue through
the extended.
- There remains a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
all central FL Atlantic beaches.
- Mainly dry conditions are forecast to continue through most of the
upcoming week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
A weak cold front across the southeast U.S. will approach and
eventually move into north Florida late tonight. It will remain
dry tonight, with passing cirrus leading to partly cloudy skies.
Winds will remain light out of the W/SW this evening, becoming
light and variable overnight. Main weather concern will be the
potential for fog development late tonight through early Monday
morning. Hi-res guidance has been fairly consistent in showing
greatest potential for fog, with visibilities less than a mile
across Lake County extending eastward through the I-4 corridor
toward daybreak. HREF probabilities for dense fog (visibilities
of a quarter mile or less) are up to 40-60% near to west of
Orlando early Monday morning, and have updated the forecast to
include areas of fog for this portion of east central FL.
Otherwise, have maintained patchy fog mention for areas west of
I-95. Any fog or stratus that forms will lift and diminish by mid
morning Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Current-Tonight...Weak surface high pressure continues to push
further away into the Atlc ahead of an approaching weak "cool" front
that will align itself just north of I-4 by sunrise Mon morning.
Aloft we find nearly zonal flow with weak shortwave ridging
pushing across Texas and eventually the north Gulf overnight. Dry
conditions persist with satellite imagery showing fair-weather Cu
moving west to east across the central peninsula. Current W/WNW
winds 10-15 mph with some higher gusts will decrease to around 5
mph tonight. After a pleasant day with highs in the 70s temps
will fall overnight into the M-U50s to around 60F.
Previous Modified Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.
Mon-Wed...The aforementioned weak front will push thru ECFL on Mon
and stall across the south-central Florida peninsula into Tue, where
it will wash out through mid-week. Amplifying ridging aloft
across the Gulf builds into the Gulf Coast States Wed. The front
itself is forecast to remain dry, as PWATs remain well below 1.5"
(forecast closer to 1.15"). Therefore, no mentionable PoPs have
been included for Mon. However, onshore flow will support a slight
moisture increase along the dissipating boundary by Tue, where it
is forecast to linger into Wed. PWATs will remain low, 1.4-1.5"
max across the Treasure Coast, but global models suggest at least
a few showers are possible here Tue/Wed. So, have kept inherited
low (~20%) PoPs in this area both days for sake of consistency.
Elsewhere, conditions look to remain dry. High temps are forecast
to increase by a degree or two each day, though are expected to
remain in the L80s through mid-week. Onshore flow will have a
greater impact on the overnight lows, which look to increase into
the 60s for most of the area by Tue morning.
Thu-Sun...Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. is shunted
southward and pushed offshore into the Atlc by a vigorous mid-level
trough to the north into the weekend. Locally, dry conditions
continue to prevail, as PWATs remain around 1". PoPs below 15%
through Sun. Onshore flow will veer southerly through the period,
with daily sea breezes. Max temps remain above climo in the L80s,
with overnight low temps remaining mild in the 60s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
As weak surface high pressure pushes further into the western
Atlc, a weak front will move south into the central FL peninsula
on Mon - becoming nearly stationary just south of the Treasure
Coast waters into mid-week. Westerly winds into tonight ahead of
the approaching boundary, become NW/N behind it during the day on
Mon. Winds may increase offshore (Volusia coast) tonight to 15-20
kts, so small craft will have to Exercise Caution here. High
pressure will build slowly back into the area, post-frontal, with
the pressure gradient (winds) relaxing. Onshore flow quickly
develops Mon night thru mid-week (Wed-Thu). With a slight uptick
in moisture, we may see some light shower activity across the
local waters, mainly south of the Cape by Tue. Seas 2-4 ft thru
the period - highest in the Gulf Stream.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
A weak and dry front will push through the region into tomorrow.
VFR conditions are mostly forecast through tomorrow, but patchy
fog and stratus may be able to develop south of the front late
tonight through early Monday morning. HREF guidance has greatest
probabilities for IFR/MVFR conditions from fog and stratus across
KLEE/KSFB/KMCO/KISM, and can't rule out brief periods of locally
dense fog producing LIFR conditions toward daybreak. For now,
have tempo groups at these sites from 11-14Z for IFR vis/cig at
KLEE and MVFR conditions at KSFB/KMCO/KISM/KTIX. Any fog/stratus
should quickly burn off and lift past sunrise, with any vis/cig
reductions ending by 14Z.
Light west winds will become N/NW around 5-7 knots tomorrow, with
a sea breeze switching winds to the NE around 7-10 knots as it
shifts inland through the afternoon/early evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 60 77 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 59 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 57 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 60 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 60 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 61 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 57 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 170027
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
An upper trof over the interior eastern states slowly retreats
northward through Tuesday night while a shortwave trof advances
across the Plains and progresses across the interior eastern
states. A surface low well off to the north brings a trailing cold
front into the northern portion of the forecast area this
afternoon which progresses into the marine area tonight. Despite
drier air flowing into much of the area with the passage of the
front, am expecting patchy fog development late tonight mainly
over the coastal counties and portions of southeast Mississippi. A
large upper trof advances into the western states and the Baja
area Tuesday night into Wednesday while a second, temporarily
phased upper trof progresses across the northwest states into the
northern Plains. A southerly surface flow becomes established over
the forecast area by Tuesday as a surface ridge shifts across the
region and a surface low progresses across the central Plains.
The surface low weakens while continuing across the interior
eastern states through Wednesday while a surface ridge becomes
oriented over the northern Gulf coast.
Some interesting things happen Wednesday night into Friday as the
southwestern states system ejects into the central Plains as a
powerful Pacific upper trof quickly dives into the southwestern
states and forms an upper low near northwest Mexico. There's
uncertainty with how this dynamic pattern will play out over the
weekend. It appears the Plains system ejects off towards the Great
Lakes Friday night into Saturday or possibly becomes absorbed
into an upper trof over the north central states. There's a bit better
confidence with what transpires with the upper low which looks to
advance to the Rio Grande through Sunday. The overall pattern
appears to lead to a surface low forming over the southern/central
Plains Thursday into Thursday night which eventually makes its way
across the eastern states over the weekend, though with
considerable uncertainty with the strength, timing and trajectory.
Have continued with a dry forecast through Thursday, then
considering the uncertainty with the pattern will have chance pops
on Friday and Saturday with slight chance to chance pops for
Sunday. In addition, another surface low looks to develop near
the Texas coast late in the weekend in response the upper low,
though whatever transpires with this system is outside of the
forecast period.
Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at
the coast with similar values for Monday night. Lows Tuesday night
and Wednesday night range from the mid 50s well inland to the
lower 60s at the coast, then Thursday night and Friday night will
be around 60 well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Saturday
night will be cooler with lower 50s well inland ranging to around
60 at the coast. Highs on Monday range from the mid 70s to lower
80s then trend to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday. Highs
then gradually trend to the mid/upper 70s by Saturday and to the
lower to mid 70s by Sunday. A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Thursday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
VFR conditions will persist through midnight. Some low ceilings
and possibly patchy dense fog could develop mainly south of I-10
and west of I-65 ahead of a backdoor cold front coming in from
the northeast. As of now, guidance seems to support low ceilings
over fog but we saw how that went for us last night. For now have
likely MVFR ceilings with some IFR visbys along the immediate
coastline with more MVFR ceilings across interior portions of the
area. Ceilings and visbys should improve shortly after sunrise
with VFR conditions returning and a light northeasterly to
easterly wind becoming southeasterly by late afternoon. BB-8 &&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Light to occasionally moderate westerly winds become northerly
tonight then a light easterly flow develops on Monday. A light
southeasterly flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday, then becomes
light to moderate on Thursday and becomes southerly on Friday.
Small craft may need to exercise caution well offshore Thursday
night. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 57 79 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 60 76 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 60 75 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 52 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 55 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 51 75 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 53 78 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 170055
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
755 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of fog possible tonight.
- Sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue into next
week.
- Benign marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
It has been another nice day across west central and southwest
Florida as high pressure in the Gulf remains in control. Mostly
sunny skies and near average temperatures were observed through the
day with daytime highs topping out in the upper 70's to low 80's.
Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures in the mid 50's to around
60 expected overnight. Patchy to areas of fog possible during the
early morning hours. The fog will burn off by mid-morning with
another nice day with mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures
expected on Monday. Updated the forecast with increasing chances and
coverage of fog during the early morning hours. No other changes
needed at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
VFR conditions and light and variable winds expected through
midnight, then models are developing some fog over most of the
terminals. Will cover this with MVFR BR restricting VSBY down to 3-4
miles for now, but will be closely monitoring during the early
morning hours for possible lower VSBY in FG. Conditions improve
around 14-15Z with VFR and winds less than 10 knots expected through
the day on Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 752 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Pleasant boating conditions with light winds 10 knots or less and
seas less than 2 feet expected into next week as dry high pressure
remains in control.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 82 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 63 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 57 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 78 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 162308
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
608 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 606 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
- Elevated fire weather concerns continue into Monday afternoon
over portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia for
critically low relative humidity. Use caution with outdoor
flames and follow local officials regarding any burn bans.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Other than the inclusion of a bit of fog across the Florida Big
Bend, the forecast is on track w/ no changes needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Surface high pressure will begin sliding over the southeast tonight
as we become post-frontal. Cooler and drier air will advect in from
the north over the next couple days leading to pleasant weather
conditions. By mid-week we'll see southerly flow start to increase,
allowing moisture to push further inland with each passing day as
surface high pressure slides off into the western Atlantic. Ridging
overhead remains in place until this weekend, allowing large scale
subsidence to keep rain chances near nil.
Our next potential frontal system looks to approach the region from
the west Sunday night into Monday. It is too early to determine what
impacts, if any, this system will produce for the region. Be sure to
check back for updates throughout the week.
Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Overnight lows initially in the mid 40s to low 50s warm up into the
upper 50s to low 60s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. A dry cold front
swings from north to south across the area tonight with a bit of
fog possible across the Florida Big Bend terminals early Monday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Winds and seas will subside on Monday, and more tranquil boating
conditions will return through Wednesday as high pressure settles
over the waters. As the high center moves east and a low center
approaches the Mississippi Valley, southeasterly winds will increase
by Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Brisk westerly transport winds the rest of today in advance of a dry
cold front will lead to dispersions on the higher side, but they are
not expected to be critically high, along with much higher afternoon
RH compared to the past couple of days (generally in the 50s). The
dry cold frontal passage tonight will usher in a much drier air mass
for Monday afternoon, with RH tanking to around 20% moving northward
of the FL border further into Southeast AL and Southwest GA, but
rising through the 30s and 40s in the FL Counties southward toward
the Gulf coast. Northerly 20 ft winds will be light, so the main
concern will be easier fire starts given the low RH, leading to
elevated fire weather conditions on Monday afternoon and evening.
Given the light northerly transport winds on Monday afternoon,
dispersions will be fair at best, and cannot rule out some pockets
of lower values. On Tuesday, RH values may dip into the 30s again in
Southeast AL and Southwest GA, but are expected to remain above
critical levels at this time. Dispersions may improve to fair by
Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Rainfall through Saturday is expected to be near nil, drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area.
Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 56 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 52 76 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 49 75 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 52 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 57 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 74 59 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 162237
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
537 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
- Mainly dry and seasonable conditions will remain in place
across South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into
the early portion of the week.
- Patchy fog is possible early Monday morning over interior
portions of South FL.
- Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South
Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid
level ridging strengthens over the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Only noticeable change to the short term forecast is that patchy
fog was introduced early Monday morning over interior portions of
South FL. With light to calm winds and mainly clear skies
overnight, probabilities have increased for visibilities under 1
mile over the favored interior portions. This would include
portions of Alligator Alley, Tamiami Trail, SR-29 and 80, and
US-27. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
The mid to upper level flow across the region will gradually become
more zonal today as a weak mid level shortwave pushes off into
the western Atlantic. This zonal flow will remain in place across
South Florida through Monday as well. At the surface, high
pressure will continue to slide down across the region today and
it will remain centered over the area or just to the south on
Monday. This southward push is in response to a weakening frontal
boundary that will be dissipating off to the north across Northern
and Central Florida on Monday. This will also cause the synoptic
wind flow at the surface to remain generally light out of the
west southwest today and then it will shift and become light out
of the northwest on Monday. With an abundance of dry air in place
throughout most of the atmospheric column, (PWAT values hovering
between 0.7 and 0.9 inches), the sensible weather across South
Florida will remain dry and pleasant throughout the rest of the
weekend and into Monday. High temperatures will remain right
around climatological normals today and Monday as they rise into
the lower 80s across most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, mid level ridging centered over
the southern Gulf and northwestern Carribean sea will gradually
expand northeastward over the Florida Peninsula during this time
frame. At the surface, some gradual moisture advection will be
taking place as the remnants of the frontal boundary that
washed out off to the north pushes into the region. At the same
time, winds will become easterly on Tuesday and these winds will
gradually increase heading towards the middle of the week as the
pressure gradient tightens across the region. The combination of
the easterly flow along with some lingering moisture pushing into
the region from the washed out frontal boundary may be enough to
spark off some isolated shower activity across the eastern half of
South Florida during this time frame. With an abundance of dry
air remaining in place across the mid to upper levels, any shower
that does develop heading into the middle of the week will remain
low topped and rather short lived. As the mid level ridge
strengthens across the region combined with increasing easterly
surface wind flow, temperatures will slowly start moderating
heading into the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will generally range from the lower 80s across the
east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida.
For the second half of the week, mid level ridging will continue to
strengthen and build over the region centering over the southeastern
Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked to the
northeast over the western Atlantic. South Florida will remain on
the southwestern periphery of this high through Thursday and Friday.
This will keep the moderate easterly wind flow in place across the
region during this time frame. With plenty of subsidence taking
place over the area thanks to high pressure to the northeast as well
as mid level ridging strengthening over the region, mainly dry
conditions will continue across the region through the rest of the
week. High temperatures will remain on the warm side for Thursday
and Friday as they range from the lower 80s across the east coast
metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Light and variable winds through
Monday morning becoming NE 5-10 kts during the afternoon, with a
westerly Gulf breeze at APF.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
A gentle westerly breeze will develop across most of the local
waters today. The exception to this will be across portions of the
Atlantic waters where winds may become south to southwesterly in
the afternoon. These winds will become north northwesterly on
Monday, before veering and becoming easterly on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at
2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend. The seas across
the northern Atlantic waters may slightly increase and range from
2 to 3 feet on Monday as north to northwesterly wind flow
increases.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 63 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 63 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 61 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 63 80 67 81 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 63 81 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 63 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 61 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 62 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 63 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
