fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 161715
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
115 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today and at NE FL
- Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon
- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues into the Weekend. Main Impact
Area: St. Johns River Basin South of Duval County
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Ridging will extend across the region this period, from a high
centered over the Great Lakes. A trough is expected to be along
the east coast of local area. Onshore flow around the high will
be enhanced by the trough, leading to elevated and gusty winds
along the coast.
Dry weather will persist this period. Highs Today will be near
seasonal averages, and below Tonight.
Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, especially in
areas where inland water ways and swampy areas add to low level
moisture.
Have extended the coastal flood advisory through this evening for
afternoon tide cycle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
A ridge of high pressure will extend across the area Friday, from a
center over the eastern Great Lakes. Weak troughing will persist
along the coast, which will enhance onshore flow. Friday will
continue the stretch of dry weather with highs a bit below average.
The high pressure ridge will move off shore Friday night through
Saturday. While the onshore flow will continue under this pattern,
the coastal trough is expected to dissipate. As a result coastal
winds will be lighter. The dry weather will continue through
Saturday. Lows Friday night will be below average, with highs a
little below on Saturday. Ridging keeps the dry weather in place
into Saturday night, with temperatures continuing below average.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
High pressure will move off to the east Sunday, allowing a cold
front to move into the area Sunday night. This front may not be able
to push all the way through Sunday night, before lifting back to the
north of the area Monday into Tuesday.
If this weekends front does not produce rain, the next significant
chance will come with another front Wednesday. However, this front
is also expected to weaken as it moves into area. So, at this point
leaving chances less than 10 percent.
Temperatures will be above normal Sunday into Sunday night, then
near normal for Monday. Lows will be below normal both Monday night
and Tuesday night, with above normal highs for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Overall, VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds will persist
through tonight. Pre-dawn, MVFR visibilities are likely at VQQ,
conditions will improve after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
High pressure will prevail to the north northeast through Saturday.
A weak coastal trough will persist through Friday. The high will
move off to the east Sunday. A weakening cold front will move into
the region and stall Sunday night into Monday, before lifting back
to the north. Weak high pressure will be over the area Tuesday.
Rip Currents: SE GA - High Risk through Tonight, then Moderate.
NE FL - High Risk through Friday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 55 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 61 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 68 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 60 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-
132-137-138-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.
&&
$$
FXUS62 KJAX 161757
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
157 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today and at NE FL beaches on
Friday
- Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon
- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues into the Weekend. Main Impact
Area: St. Johns River Basin Southern Duval county southward
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Clear skies and northeasterly winds continue today, it may be
gusty at times this afternoon and evening near the Atlantic coast.
High temperatures will continue to climb into the lower to mid 80s
inland, and a few degrees cooler near the coast and St. Johns
river basin. Tonight, lows over inland southeast Georgia will dip
into the mid 50s, with lows in the 60s elsewhere. Shallow,
localized patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Surface high pressure ridge of about 1018-1022 mb will be over VA
and NC on Friday and shift offshore through Saturday night. Aloft,
a prominent mid level ridge from the Gulf into the TN Valley will
move east while weakening as a shortwave trough digs into the central
CONUS. As the surface high pressure ridge moves by to the north,
our local wind field will veer from northeast to east and then southeast
through Sat and Sat night. Very limited moisture remains with PWATs
of below 1 inch (about the 20th percentile compared to climatology)
to continue the stretch of dry weather, with pleasant highs near
average with skies mostly clear. Lows expected to be below average
and chilly for Saturday morning with lows the middle 50s inland,
but lower 60s at the coast. Our forecast lows not as cold Saturday
night due to the veering/warm advection flow and some increased
moisture as the next frontal boundary approach from the northwest.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
The weak cold front approaches from the northwest on Sunday with
a mean southerly low level flow. This should boost temps to above
normal in the mid to upper 80s. Moisture and dynamics are limited
ahead of the front so we only have slight chances for the area late
Sunday into Sunday night. The front expected to push through the
area Sunday night with weak high pressure building behind it on
Monday. The next front will approach the area Tuesday and this one
will be even drier as it moves through Tuesday night/early Wed.
General high pressure again over the area again Wed-Thu.
Pretty dry airmass moving in behind the front on Monday with PWATs
again at only the 25th percentile. Have slightly lowered NBM guidance
dewpoints Mon- Tue due to abnormal dry air.
Max temperatures will trend a little closer to normal or just above
normal Monday through Thursday. We could near the record high at
Gainesville on Tuesday with some upper 80s possible across inland
northeast FL. With a dry airmass prevailing and relatively light
winds during the overnight periods, low temperatures will be below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Overall, VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds will persist
through tonight. Pre-dawn, MVFR visibilities are likely at VQQ,
conditions will improve after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Elevated seas offshore will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions
through at least Friday morning. High pressure will then weaken
as it shifts southeastward towards our local waters on Saturday,
allowing winds and seas to diminish. A weakening cold front will
then approach our region on Sunday night, possibly developing a
few showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Southwesterly winds
will briefly strengthen ahead of this boundary, with winds
shifting to northerly in the wake of this frontal passage by early
Monday.
Rip currents: High rip current risk continues at the northeast
Florida beaches Friday, with a moderate risk a the southeast
Georgia beaches.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Warm and dry weather will continue the next few days which does
not help given the abnormally dry areas, especially inland areas
from Suwannee Valley northward into southeast GA. Min RH values
will drop well into the 30s Fri and Sat afternoons across inland
southeast GA, with some recovery Sunday ahead of a cool front,
then only to bottom out again Monday and Tuesday into the 30s.
Some patchy high daytime dispersions possible the next few days
with patchy early morning shallow fog possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Minor flooding during the next high tide this evening along the St.
Johns river south of downtown Jacksonville is likely. Confidence
in minor flooding is high enough for a timing extension of the
Coastal Flood Advisory for these locations to cover Friday's high
tide cycles.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 55 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 61 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 68 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 60 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132-
137-138-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 161756
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the
weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged
- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through Friday night
- Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters and along
the immediate coast through tonight with dry conditions
forecast through this weekend and into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Current-Tonight... A weak surface boundary passes east central
Florida late today and into tonight as a "backdoor" cold front.
Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters this evening
and overnight, and a few may wander onshore at times. Otherwise,
mostly dry. Breezy northeast winds this afternoon fall to around 5-
10 mph tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range the mid to
upper 60s across the interior with upper 60s to low 70s along the
coast.
Friday-Saturday... Surface high pressure stretches across the
eastern U.S., maintaining dry conditions locally. Breezy
northeast winds continue Friday with flow slackening and shifting
out of the east on Saturday. Cannot rule out a few stray onshore-
moving showers throughout the period, but expecting PoPs to remain
mostly dry. High temperatures mostly range the low 80s each day,
but some areas across the far interior may touch the mid 80s.
Cooler morning low temperatures arrive Saturday with values in the
low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s along the
coast. Portions of northwest Volusia and northern Lake may even
fall into the upper 50s Saturday morning.
Don't let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present
even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches are
anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents forecast
through late this week and into the weekend. Residents and visitors
are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean.
Sunday-Wednesday... High pressure is pushed offshore as the next
cold front moves into the eastern U.S. Limited moisture returns
locally late this weekend and into early next week. The forecast
remains mostly dry through the extended forecast as the front washes
out and slows south of the area. High pressure and dry air builds in
wake of the frontal boundary with a second front forecast to
approach the area again mid week. Have kept no mentionable rain
chances with this forecast package. Highs climb a few degrees above
normal across the interior through Tuesday, reaching the upper 80s
in most spots. More seasonable temperatures are forecast near and
east of I-95, spreading the mid 80s. Sunday will be the coolest
morning of the period, with lows in the low to mid 60s inland and
mid to upper 60s along the coast. Lows more widely range the mid to
upper 60s Monday and into mid week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Northeast winds around 15-20 kts will maintain poor to hazardous
seas through Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the
offshore Atlantic waters (20-60 nm), expanding to the nearshore
Treasure Coast (0-20 nm) waters after 8PM for seas of 6-8 ft. Small
craft should exercise caution across nearshore Volusia and nearshore
Brevard (0-20 nm) for seas up to 6 ft through Friday. Winds veer
east around 10 kts into Saturday, further veering south-southeast on
Sunday. Seas of 4-5 ft become more favorable on Saturday before a
longer period swell briefly builds seas back to 6 ft across parts of
the Gulf Stream on Sunday. A cold front approaches the local waters
early next week, washing out as is passes the local waters. Rounds
of isolated showers will be possible in onshore flow through
Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR conditions mostly forecast through the remainder of today and
into tonight. It will be mostly dry this afternoon, with isolated
onshore moving showers then possible into tonight. This activity may
be able to push far enough inland to reach the I-4 corridor, but for
now better potential for any showers will be along the coast and
have added VCSH for coastal TAF sites starting at 00Z. Drier air
then moves in by early Friday morning, which should put an end to
any additional shower development across the area.
NE winds 10-14 knots with gusts up to 18-22 knots forecast through
this afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 knots into tonight. NE winds
then pick up again by late morning, with speeds around 9-13 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 68 83 64 83 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 71 81 68 81 / 20 0 0 0
VRB 71 81 67 81 / 20 0 0 0
LEE 65 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 67 82 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 68 82 64 83 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 70 81 66 81 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
for AMZ555.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 162313
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
- Dry and warm conditions will persist through Saturday, with
increasing rain chances for Sunday morning. Dry conditions
return for next week, along with cooler temperatures.
- The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by
Friday evening, with a high risk expected on Saturday and
Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and
follow the posted beach warning flags.
- Very dry conditions on top of an ongoing and expanding drought
may lead to fire weather concerns for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
The axis of an amplified upper ridge, currently extending from
the northern Gulf up through the north central US, will push to
the east over the next few days. This is in response to an upper-
level trough that will dig southeastward across the CONUS over the
weekend. This trough should push to the east of the local region
by Sunday morning, helping to establish a northwesterly flow
pattern aloft in its wake for the start of next week. At the
surface, an associated cold front will push through the area on
Sunday. Showers and storms (potentially in the form of an MCS)
will likely be ongoing upstream over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley on Saturday. As the front and associated MCS approaches our
area Saturday night, most guidance suggests that the best forcing
should begin to lift away from the region. Also factoring in
meager downstream instability due to the overnight timing and poor
lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for the MCS to weaken
prior reaching our northwestern counties. It should be noted that
the 00z and 06z ensemble runs of the ECMWF did suggest a slightly
deeper trough which could help to maintain the MCS just a bit
longer for it to possibly reach our CWA. If this solution were to
pan out, then the primary concern would be gusty winds for areas
north of Highway 84 and west of I-65 during the early morning
hours on Sunday. At this time, the potential for this is rather
low. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind
the cold front. We remain dry through Monday night before a
stronger cold front passes through on Tuesday. With a lack of any
meaningful moisture return, only a few isolated showers are
possible as this second front moves through. We dry out once again
for midweek as high pressure builds in to our north.
Highs will remain very warm for this time of year through Sunday,
with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. After the first
front passes through, highs on Monday and Tuesday will be knocked
down by a couple degrees; ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Highs lower again for Wednesday and Thursday after the second front
passes, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to upper
70s. Lows will follow a similar pattern. Lows will remain mild
through Saturday night, with temperatures only dropping into the
60s. After the first front, lows decrease into the 50s inland and
low 60s along the coast for Sunday and Monday nights. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday nights decrease even further after the second front,
with some interior areas dropping into the mid to upper 40s. The rip
current risk remains low through Friday afternoon, increasing to a
moderate risk Friday evening. A High Risk of rip currents follow for
this weekend, lowering back down to moderate by Monday.
Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much
of the local region. Although scattered showers and storms are
expected Sunday morning, overall rainfall totals are expected to
remain below a half inch, offering little relief. After the Sunday
and Tuesday fronts pass through, guidance indicates that much drier
air will push in, likely bringing afternoon humidity values down to
below 30 percent for several days next week (Monday, Wednesday, and
Thursday). Although winds appear to remain rather weak, the dry
conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could lead to
fire-related concerns next week. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR conditions this evening will be followed by patchy fog,
potentially thick in some spots, developing late tonight over the
southern portion of the area. The fog dissipates by mid Friday
morning leaving VFR conditions. Winds become calm or light and
variable this evening, then a southeasterly flow near 10 knots
develops on Friday. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
A light southerly to southeasterly flow continues through
tonight, with winds gradually increasing on Friday and Saturday,
along with building seas. Winds shift to a light to moderate
southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Moderate
offshore flow develops Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front
and becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 68 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 69 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 59 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 10
Camden 60 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 60 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 161747
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
147 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
- Gusty marine winds each night, improving during the day
- Rain-free conditions through Saturday, then a very slight
chance of showers on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
High pressure remains aloft over the southeastern U.S. this
afternoon while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes ridges
southward. These features will slowly shift eastward over the next
couple of days as a trough digs through the central U.S. and a
surface frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will
be the only (relatively) interesting thing in the forecast for the
next week. Over the past few days, models were showing a slight
chance for some showers, but these have continued to back off on the
amount of moisture available, so for now, we will show barely a rain
chance for the very northern part of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon. High pressure builds in over the southeast behind the
boundary and quickly shifts eastward, keeping warm and dry
conditions in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with mainly
northeast winds continuing.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Northeast to east winds continue for the next few days, increasing
to exercise caution levels each night. No headlines are expected
during the daytime hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is
expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 69 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 68 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 68 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 62 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 71 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 162311
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
711 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
- Low rain chances (20-30%) are forecast for Sunday as a cold
front moves through the area. Little to no significant impacts
are anticipated.
- Drought continues to worsen across the area with little
beneficial rain on the horizon. The continued dry conditions
and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire
concerns through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
High pressure continues to dominate our forecast through Saturday
with warm days and comfortable nights continuing. A surge of drier
air moves in from the east and northeast tomorrow afternoon, which
will help reinforce our tranquil weather. Highs will continue to
be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Moisture increases Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. PWATs increase to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches,
but the main limiting factor will be lift. The parent trough will
be well to our north over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which
limits support for showers and storms. What most likely will
happen is a band of showers and storms along or just ahead of the
front will weaken as it moves into our area. Rain chances are
highest over our Central Time Zone counties at 30-40%, decreasing
to the east. An isolated storm or two is possible, though
instability is rather limited with deep layer shear topping out at
25-30 kt.
Drier air moves in behind the front heading into Monday. Dew
points will drop into the 40s and 50s on Monday with a 20-40%
chance that dew points will fall below 40. Another cold front will
move through on Tuesday with moisture being even more scant. Yet
another surge of cooler, drier air will move into the area to
round out next week. Highs will still be in the low to mid 80s
through Tuesday, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Behind the
front, highs will drop into the 70s on Wednesday with lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Much like last night, MVFR vsbys are possible from 08-13Z at VLD
with clear skies and light to calm winds. A lower probability of
occurrence at TLH warrants a tempo for MVFR vsbys from 10-13Z.
The rest of the TAF sites will remain VFR through the overnight.
VFR is expected at all TAF sites after 13Z with light east to
southeast winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue through
Saturday with high pressure to our north. In this regime,
nocturnal easterly surges could bring some localized cautionary
conditions to our far offshore waters. Winds turn more
southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Only widely scattered showers and an isolated storm
are expected with the front Sunday. A brief bout of northerly to
northeasterly moderate breezes is expected Monday before clocking
around out of the east to southeast again Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday with east to
southeast transport winds around 5-10 mph. Dispersions will
generally be good, though some high dispersions are possible in
the Alabama zones Saturday where mixing heights will be highest.
A cold front moves into and through the area Sunday with a low
chance (10- 30%) of a wetting rain. Otherwise, dispersions
increase Sunday with southwesterly transport winds of 10-20 mph.
Drier air follows in its wake.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Sunday's cold front doesn't look as promising for widespread
beneficial rain, unfortunately. In fact, the 90th percentile is
only a quarter to half an inch, and most likely, rain totals will
be less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is expected beyond then
through the end of the forecast period.
This dry weather continues to spell bad news for drought concerns.
The latest US Drought Monitor now shows expanding extreme drought
across parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into south
Georgia. For more information on the local drought conditions,
please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 66 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 58 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 59 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 68 79 68 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 162209
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
609 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports this
morning reveal a continuation of comfortable conditions across South
Florida with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s. Even in
the relatively quiet weather regime we currently find ourselves in,
mesoscale phenomena can still preclude a totally dry forecast.
Looking at current surface observations inland and along the
immediate east coast, the convergence of light northwesterly winds
and northeasterly winds has led to weak coastal convergence along
the east coast of South Florida over the last several hours. KAMX
(Miami Radar) has been tracking an increasing amount of shower
activity just offshore of the east coast of South Florida within
the past one to two hours. ACARS data from our three major east
coast airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) as well as the 00z MFL upper
air sounding reveal a plethora of dry air in most of the
atmospheric column with the exception of a shallow layer of
surface moisture (up to 750mb). The warm waters of the nearby Gulf
Stream and that shallow layer of moisture will likely result in
the continuation of quick moving shower activity just offshore or
along the immediate east coast of South Florida for the rest of
today. The NBM (National Blend of Models) had 0% chances for rain
today across the majority of the area, but based on analysis and
mesoscale models, have added in 20-30% precipitation chances for
the eastern half of the region today. Diurnal heating may allow
for the expansion of these vertically capped showers further
inland during the afternoon hours as northeasterly winds enhance
across the entire region.
Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic pattern in play, South
Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across
the Gulf and Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level troughing
amplifying across the northeastern United States and western
Atlantic waters. This will result in the continuation of north to
northwesterly mid level flow over the next several days, ushering in
a continued dry airmass in the mid to upper levels of the
atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an
distant area of low pressure out in the northern Atlantic will
gradually slide southward across our region today. The development
of an expansive surface ridge of high pressure across most of the
eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic waters will result in
the enhancement of a pressure gradient between these two features.
Breezy northeasterly winds will pick up during the afternoon hours,
especially along the immediate east coast. Breezy onshore flow
combined with the factors listed above, could support the continued
advection of spotty low-topped showers across the eastern half of
South Florida today. The enhancement of onshore winds will create a
slight temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with
forecasted high temperatures in the middle 80s across the eastern
half of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales
potentially reaching 90F) across the western half of the region.
With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
in full swing, the next longwave trough across the western United
States will begin to amplify and pivot eastward. This will result
in the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide
eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters. While dry
air and subsidence remain the status quo in the mid-levels, the
pressure gradient will continue to strengthen on Friday. This will
result in gusty surface winds across most of the region,
especially across the Atlantic waters and along the immediate east
coast of South Florida. Residual low-level moisture combined with
the gusty northeasterly surface winds will keep the threat of a
few isolated showers along the east coast of South Florida in the
forecast. The enhancement of winds will lead to a greater
temperature gradient during the afternoon hours with highs in the
low 80s forecast along the immediate east coast to highs in the
upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
As the longwave trough across the central United States continues to
amplify, mid-level ridging over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent
waters will gradually flatten out and weaken in strength. Persistent
mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west- northwesterly or
even westerly during this time frame. The axis of expansive
surface ridging situated across the eastern United States will
advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local
surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in
a slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although
winds will still remain breezy (at times gusty), especially along
the east coast of South Florida. The afternoon temperature
gradient will remain with us once again, as forecasted highs range
from the low to mid 80s along the east coast to temperatures in
the upper 80s across southwestern Florida.
The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high
for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of
next week as the latest guidance suite shows the aforementioned mid-
level trough arriving across the Ohio River Valley & northeastern
United States Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary
associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region
will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula
during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance
still remain in disagreement with several items in regards to the
mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal
boundary. While both the ECMWF & GFS show the trough axis,
subtropical jet, and dynamics remaining to the north of our region,
any transit of a mid-level shortwave at the base of the trough
across our area could act to increase shower and thunderstorm
chances by steepening lapse rates and providing a boost in
instability. For now at least, both the latest European and American
do not currently depict a short-wave passage across our region at
this time. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.
As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on
Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active
across the central and eastern United States. Expansive surface
ridging will develop across most of the United States during this
time period with the potential of reinforcing weak frontal
boundaries pushing southward into our region. During this time
frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy diurnally
easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s are
possible during the early to mid portion of the week across
southwestern Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper
80s across the east coast metro.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR prevails through the period. A few showers may be possible
across eastern sites through the period, although dry conditions
will prevail overall. Northeasterly flow prevails through the
period, and may become gusty at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue
across the local waters today. By late today into tonight, the
passage of a frontal boundary will result in an enhancement of winds
across our local waters, especially in our nearshore Atlantic
waters. Winds will remain fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday
before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering
more southeasterly. This will result in SCEC (Small Craft Exercise
Caution) conditions developing across our northern Atlantic waters
this afternoon before expanding to the rest of our local waters this
evening. A northeasterly swell will result in seas in the northern
Atlantic waters reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) tonight, with
seas building to 7 feet in the Gulfstream. Seas will also build to 7
feet in the southern Atlantic waters by the early to mid morning
hours of Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3
feet today, increasing to the 2 to 4 feet range by Friday. Isolated
to scattered showers will remain in the forecast across our local
waters each day, especially over and near the Gulfstream waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches
today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and
Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a
northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current
risk will become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches by this
evening and remain in the high category through at least Friday
evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar
cycle, increasing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will
result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within
1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next
several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for
coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at
least Friday morning. Given the continuation of breezy to at times
gusty onshore winds along the east coast through the first part of
the weekend, the Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended
further out in time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 74 84 73 84 / 20 0 0 0
West Kendall 72 85 70 85 / 10 10 0 0
Opa-Locka 74 85 71 85 / 20 0 0 0
Homestead 73 84 72 84 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 75 83 73 83 / 20 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 73 83 / 20 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 75 86 72 86 / 20 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 74 84 72 83 / 10 0 0 0
Boca Raton 74 84 72 84 / 20 0 0 0
Naples 71 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
AMZ651-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Rizzuto