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Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 081132
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
732 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another day of weak SW steering flow across the local area
between mean layer high pressure across the southern FL peninsula
and a trough north of the region. Gulf coast convection will edge
inland toward the I-75 corridor through late morning, as inland
heat builds with slightly higher mid level thicknesses today under
the influence of a 500 mb ridge extending NE to SW across the
area. The presence of this ridge axis into the mid afternoon will
tend to keep convection more shallow in nature until boundary
collisions occur across inland locations late afternoon into the
early evening where rain chances of > 60% were advertised for
locations near and north of the I-10 corridor and east of Highway
301 toward the St. Johns River basin of NE FL.

Slow storm motion and high moisture content of 2-2.2 inches will
bring localized heavy rainfall especially north of the I-10
corridor where the deeper moisture resides. Heavy precip loading
where boundary mergers occur will also bring wet downburst
potential with a continued layer of drier air between 700-500 mb
enhancing DCAPEs (00z JAX RAOB DCAPE was just over 940 J/kg).

Given slow and erratic storm motion under weak steering flow,
storms will tend to slowly fade and 'rain out' through midnight
over interior locations with a resurrection of pre-dawn convection
back toward the Gulf coast as SW steering flow continues.

Above average high temperatures will again reach the mid to upper
90s across SE GA and locations east of Highway 301 across NE FL
today, while 'cooler' highs in lower 90s will focus near and west
of the FL I-75 corridor where morning convection and cloud cover
nudges inland from the Gulf. Peak heat index values continue to
range between 100-105 deg, below local heat advisory criteria.
Continued muggy overnight lows will range in the low to mid 70s
inland to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Temperatures will return closer to near normal Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs generally in the lower 90s as weak southwest
flow continues. The Atlantic beaches will be more so in the upper
80s as the east coast sea breeze pushes towards I-95. High shower
and storm chances will be present both afternoons and evenings, as
the Gulf sea breeze pushes inland sparking up convection. Coverage
will increase as sea breezes and other boundaries converge over
northeast Florida. With weaker flow and high PWATs in place, there
will be a localized heavy downpour/flooding threat mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Beginning Friday, temperatures will heat back up area-wide, with
highs over inland southeast Georgia reaching the mid 90s. With
winds becoming more westerly towards the end of the week and
through the weekend, it will reach the lower 90s at the Atlantic
coast since the sea breeze will be pinned. Heat indices of about
100-105 are likely each day, potentially a little higher in some
spots. With the Atlantic sea breeze not pushing far inland, the
Gulf sea breeze will dominate, highest storm coverage will be west
of I-95.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A lazy moisture-laden southwesterly flow continues today, allowing
an inland Atlc sea breeze push to and beyond the I-95 corridor early
this evening, reaching KJAX around 21z. Anticipate a late day sea
breeze collision resulting in slow-moving thunderstorms through the
early evening hours. Occasional periods of IFR vsby, lightning, and
erratic outflow winds are anticipated between 19z-01z today,
otherwise VFR conds prevail. Winds will generally turn back to
the SSW this evening with potentially a few showers overnight as a
weak disturbance moves in off the Atlantic.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

High pressure extending across central Florida and a surface
trough across Georgia will bring prevailing southwest winds,
shifting onshore each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze moves
inland. Evening nocturnal wind surges will near 15 to 20 knots
briefly at times. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore
of the coast in the afternoon and early evening.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk continues today with an
easterly swell of around 1.5 ft with 14 second periods at buoy
41117 (east of St. Augustine). A moderate risk is expected Wed for
FL beaches with a low risk for SE GA beaches as the easterly
swell component fades.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  91  73 /  70  50  80  30
SSI  89  76  87  76 /  30  30  50  30
JAX  94  74  91  73 /  50  40  80  30
SGJ  92  75  90  75 /  40  30  60  20
GNV  93  73  91  73 /  70  30  80  20
OCF  92  74  91  73 /  60  30  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$



Office: EYW
Office: MLB FXUS62 KMLB 081405 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms. - Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in the workweek as moisture builds over Florida. - Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F, visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The low level ridge axis was near Lake Okeechobee this morning with light WSW flow in the H9-H7 layer north of the ridge axis. Morning soundings indicate warmish mid level temps with ~8.5C at H7 at XMR and -7C at H5 at JAX/XMR. Have lowered pops slightly for the afternoon based on the latest guidance, mainly in the scattered range from 30 percent along the Treasure Coast and Coastal Brevard to 50 percent across interior with most of the late afternoon storms developing from Osceola County NNE to Volusia County. The July heat continues with highs in the lwr 90s coast to mid 80s interior. Heat indices will remain elevated with max readings from 100-106 in the afternoon. No forecast adjustments needed to temps with highs in the lwr-mid 90s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning. This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper heights are above normal across much of North America and the Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture values have dropped slightly below normal. The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South Florida by the weekend. Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture over the state from the northeast. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today-Wednesday... Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless, seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak heat indices from 100-106 deg F. Thursday-Weekend... A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70% chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon, persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as 106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient access to air conditioning. Early Next Week... Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics, with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast. This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state, leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and storms are forecast. Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 FT. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Light and variable winds becoming more WSW at 5 to 10 knots after 15Z. VCSH possible along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland this afternoon, with VCTS across the interior after 20Z as the sea breeze collision occurs. Interior terminals have greatest chance for impacts due to TSRA, so have TEMPOs at MCO, ISM, and SFB from 22Z through 01Z. Some push back towards the coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains low at this time and therefore have maintained either VCSH or VCTS at the coastal terminals. Activity diminishing after 02Z, with light SSW winds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 89 75 / 40 40 50 20 MCO 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20 MLB 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 20 VRB 91 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20 LEE 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 60 20 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20 ORL 93 77 92 76 / 50 40 60 20 FPR 90 73 89 73 / 30 20 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Volkmer AVIATION...Tollefsen FXUS62 KMLB 081415 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms. - Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in the workweek as moisture builds over Florida. - Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F, visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The low level ridge axis was near Lake Okeechobee this morning with light WSW flow in the H9-H7 layer north of the ridge axis. Morning soundings indicate warmish mid level temps with ~8.5C at H7 at XMR and -7C at H5 at JAX/XMR. Have lowered pops slightly for the afternoon based on the latest guidance, mainly in the scattered range from 30 percent along the Treasure Coast and Coastal Brevard to 50 percent across interior with most of the late afternoon storms developing from Osceola County NNE to Volusia County. The July heat continues with highs in the lwr 90s coast to mid 90s interior. Heat indices will remain elevated with max readings from 100-106 in the afternoon. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning. This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper heights are above normal across much of North America and the Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture values have dropped slightly below normal. The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South Florida by the weekend. Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture over the state from the northeast. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today-Wednesday... Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless, seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak heat indices from 100-106 deg F. Thursday-Weekend... A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70% chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon, persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as 106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient access to air conditioning. Early Next Week... Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics, with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast. This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state, leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and storms are forecast. Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 FT. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Light and variable winds becoming more WSW at 5 to 10 knots after 15Z. VCSH possible along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland this afternoon, with VCTS across the interior after 20Z as the sea breeze collision occurs. Interior terminals have greatest chance for impacts due to TSRA, so have TEMPOs at MCO, ISM, and SFB from 22Z through 01Z. Some push back towards the coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains low at this time and therefore have maintained either VCSH or VCTS at the coastal terminals. Activity diminishing after 02Z, with light SSW winds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 89 75 / 40 40 50 20 MCO 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20 MLB 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 20 VRB 91 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20 LEE 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 60 20 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20 ORL 93 77 92 76 / 50 40 60 20 FPR 90 73 89 73 / 30 20 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Volkmer AVIATION...Tollefsen
Office: MOB FXUS64 KMOB 081115 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Throughout the period, upper-level ridging attempts to build across portions of the southeast US, however, it looks to have some trouble establishing itself across our local area through late week. This is due to a shortwave trough that moves in from the northwest on Wednesday and stalls over central MS/AL. This trough will help to keep our area underneath a weakness within the ridge. This, along with deep moisture in place, will allow for rain chances to increase through the week. Highest rain chances appear to be on Thursday and Friday (generally around 60-80% away from the immediate coast) as the shortwave makes its closest approach. The shortwave should dissipate by Saturday, allowing for the ridge to finally build into the area by Sunday and Monday. This should help to lower PoPs back down to around 40-60 percent. Activity throughout the period is expected to follow a typical diurnal summertime pattern, with showers and storms developing during the morning over our marine zones and along the coast, pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze which spread inland via outflow boundary collisions, and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall. Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. We should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria through at least Sunday, although heat indices could potentially rise to as high as 102-107 degrees in many spots. As the ridge builds into the area, we may have our first shot at exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria on Monday as heat indices in a few areas could climb to as high as 109. We will monitor trends over the coming days. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. The rip current risk remains low through much of the period. There is an indication that strengthening onshore flow may help to increase the rip current risk to a moderate risk for our Florida beaches during the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 General VFR conditions with light southwest to westerly winds at 11z with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two south of the coast. Winds are expected to shift to southerly through the day as a seabreeze develops and moves inland. Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are expected through the morning into the afternoon, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms bringing local drops in conditions to mid/low level MVFR. Locally strong and variable winds are also possible in and near the stronger thunderstorms. This convection is expected to quickly decrease in coverage during the evening with the loss of the day's heating. Also, winds well inland are expected to become light, with westerly winds around 5 knots along and south of I-10 expected through the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow prevails through the week. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW FXUS62 KTBW 081158 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 758 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Upper level ridging and surface high pressure near Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across southwest Florida and into the eastern gulf. This ridging will shift northward by Wednesday with the ridge axis extending through the central part of the state. This pattern will favor light and variable winds overnight, becoming west- southwest 5-10 knots during the afternoon. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.6 - 1.9 inches will support daily scattered sea breeze showers and storms during the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 756 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Southwesterly flow and more stable air will keep thunderstorm chances limited today. The best chance to see storms at terminals will be in southwest Florida. Winds generally be light staying below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 High pressure ridges across Florida and into the eastern gulf producing light winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. A stray shower or storm is possible over the eastern gulf during the evening and early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Abundant moisture and light winds will continue through the week precluding any fire weather concerns. Daily afternoon showers and storms expected each day through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 92 78 92 / 20 60 20 70 FMY 76 94 76 93 / 30 70 30 70 GIF 75 93 75 92 / 20 70 20 70 SRQ 76 92 76 90 / 20 50 30 60 BKV 73 92 73 92 / 20 60 20 70 SPG 79 89 78 89 / 20 50 30 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce
Office: TAE FXUS62 KTAE 081044 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Another typical summer day is on tap. Early morning convection offshore steadily moves north and inland throughout the day as the sea breeze pushes northward. Highest PWATs will be across our SW Georgia and Florida Big Bend counties so expect the best chances for convection to be in these areas. MLCAPE across SW GA and the FL Big Bend is also looking to be around 1500-2500 J/kg, allowing for any storms that do pop up to quickly gain vertical growth. The primary hazard today would be localized flash flooding within any downpours or slow moving storms. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Fairly weak flow aloft with a ridge anchored across the western Atlantic will lead to fairly routine and diurnally-driven weather throughout the extended period. Low-level west to southwesterly flow will prevail allowing the atmospheric column to moisten throughout the week. The sea breeze and it's associated convective activity should be able to push further inland with each passing day as moisture increases. Thursday into Friday a couple subtle shortwaves quickly move across eastern CONUS, from the central Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic. These subtle perturbations could act as additional forcing for ascent, leading to widespread showers and storms further inland, primarily across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Ridging then builds back in over the region this weekend and into early next week. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A typical summer day is coming up, complete with seabreeze-focused air mass thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Early this morning, there are already showers and a few thunderstorms lining up along the landbreeze near the coast, particularly at Panama City Beach. Over the next few hours, convective development could expand far enough north, so there will be a threat of thunder near the ECP terminal around 14z, if not sooner. Similar to Monday, thunderstorms will develop over more inland areas by early afternoon. The weak southwest flow pattern most heavily favors TLH and VLD for thunder. ECP could certainly get another round of thunder this afternoon, though it could also have thunder confined near the eastern and northern edge of the 10-mile radius. DHN and ABY are most in question due to the more randomly scattered nature of the convection further inland, absent the focusing seabreeze front. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light west to southwest flow which will be enhanced near the coast by the afternoon sea breeze. Convection will be concentrated in the morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Low level flow will remain light and variable, with wind directions mostly influenced by nearby shower/storm activity and the Gulf coast sea breezes throughout today before becoming southwesterly by Wednesday. This will allow increasing moisture throughout the Tri- State region and a return to more summertime conditions. Meaning, highs in the 90s each day, heat indices pushing the low to mid 100s in spots, and increasing chances for late morning through mid evening thunderstorms. Dispersions and transport winds appear favorable over the next couple days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of the summer wet season, riverine flooding is not expected. Isolated downpours could lead to flash flooding concerns, especially in areas with poor drainage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 75 92 74 / 50 20 70 10 Panama City 90 78 91 78 / 30 10 50 20 Dothan 93 74 94 73 / 30 20 50 20 Albany 95 75 93 74 / 50 30 70 20 Valdosta 94 74 92 74 / 50 40 80 20 Cross City 91 74 91 73 / 40 30 70 20 Apalachicola 88 78 88 78 / 30 20 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver
Office: MFL FXUS62 KMFL 081125 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 725 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Mid level ridging will hold across the region today as surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic extends back towards the Florida Peninsula. The surface ridge axis will remain just off to the north of the region today which will allow for the surface synoptic wind flow to remain light with a general easterly direction. As the day progresses, the sea breezes will develop and push inland and they will become the main driver of the wind direction through the afternoon hours. With plenty of subsidence in place due to mid level ridging overhead, a pocket of drier air will remain in place across the mid levels throughout most of today which will help to create a delayed start in convective initiation once again. In general, the latest forecast model soundings show PWAT values ranging between 1.6 and 1.8 across the area this morning before gradually increasing over Southwest Florida heading into the afternoon and evening hours. As the lower level moisture increases and the sea breezes push inland, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon. With a prevalent easterly steering flow, most of the activity will develop over the interior and push towards Southwest Florida as the afternoon progresses. With 500mb temperatures hovering between -8 and -8.5C this afternoon combined with ample instability, (SB Cape between 2500 and 3500 J/kg), this will be supportive of a few of the thunderstorms this afternoon becoming strong to marginally severe. DCAPE values look to be slightly higher when compared to yesterday as well, (900-1100 J/kg), especially over Southwest Florida. This would be supportive of strong gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms this afternoon over Southwest Florida where the sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide. Small hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest thunderstorms with a sufficient source of relatively colder air aloft. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s over Southwest Florida. While the weather pattern on Wednesday looks to remain rather similar, there will be a subtle change as a weakening mid level disturbance slowly approaches the region from the Bahamas. The latest guidance suite does show that this disturbance is trending weaker and may stay off to the south during this time frame as the mid level ridge tries to hold strong. This scenario would keep convective initiation mainly sea breeze driven once again. With the surface ridge axis remaining nearby just to the north, the synoptic wind flow will remain rather light with a southeasterly component until the sea breezes develop and take over as the day progresses. With not much change in atmospheric instability along with plenty of subsidence aloft due to the mid level ridging creating the pocket of drier air in the mid levels (PWAT values remaining between 1.6 and 1.9 inches), some of the convection may become strong to marginally severe in the afternoon across Southwest Florida. This would be due to sea breeze boundary collisions as well as other mesoscale boundary collisions during peak diurnal heating. The strongest thunderstorms could could once again create strong gusty winds along with heavy downpours. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A more noticeable change will come in the weather pattern heading into Thursday as the weak mid level disturbance starts to turn towards the northwest and push into Southeast Gulf as the day progresses. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered in the Atlantic with South Florida remaining on the western periphery of the high. The synoptic wind flow will remain southeasterly, however, the latest guidance suite remains in good agreement with bringing in an increased surge of moisture over South Florida during this time frame as PWAT values rise above 2 inches across most of the region. Due to the weak mid level disturbance making its closest pass during this time frame as it turns northwestward into the Gulf, 500 mb temperatures look to slightly cool and will range between -8 and -9C throughout most of the day. While the extra moisture in place will help to increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms, the extra source of lift due to the mid level disturbance may help to increase the chances of strong to marginally severe thunderstorm development. While the typical diurnal pattern will stay in place, with more moisture surging into the area there may be some additional showers and thunderstorms in the morning closer to the east coast metro areas before activity slides towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening hours with the southeasterly wind flow. The highest chances of strong to marginally severe convection will remain over Southwest Florida due to the proximity of the weak mid level disturbance combined with sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions. Heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite looks to have come into better agreement with showing the weakening mid level disturbance pushing north out of the area as Friday progresses and eventually washing out and being absorbed by the ridge this weekend. At the surface, the ridge axis from the area of high pressure centered in the Atlantic will remain parked over the Florida Peninsula and will remain just to the north of the region through the end of the week and most of the weekend. This will result in a light southeasterly synoptic wind flow staying in place for Friday and Saturday and convective initiation will be mainly sea breeze driven during this time frame. With the mid level steering flow remaining light out of the east southeast each day, the typical summertime pattern will take place as convection forms along the sea breezes as they develop before pushing towards the interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon and evening through Sunday. An isolated strong thunderstorm or two will be possible over Southwest Florida each day through Sunday where the sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures during Thursday through Sunday will not change much and will remain typical for this time of year as they will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s over Southwest Florida each afternoon during this time frame. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions should prevail for much of the period, except at KAPF where SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon could lead to temporary vis/cig reductions. Easterly winds persist starting late morning, becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A gentle easterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters today before shifting and become southeast through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may shift and become west southwesterly each afternoon due to the Gulf breeze development. Winds may become moderate over the Atlantic waters towards the end of the week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens up a bit. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30 West Kendall 91 75 90 76 / 30 20 40 30 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 79 / 30 20 40 30 Homestead 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 89 80 / 40 20 40 20 Pembroke Pines 94 81 93 81 / 40 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 40 20 Boca Raton 92 78 91 78 / 40 20 40 20 Naples 92 76 92 76 / 50 40 70 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...ATV