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Office: JAX

FXUS62 KJAX 211402
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
902 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.Update.../through this evening/...

High pressure will build to the Northwest Today. Skies will be clear
for much of the day, but a gradual increase in clouds over
Southeastern counties can be expected as a coastal trough begins
to develop.

Highs Today will trend a little below normal, with highs ranging
from 65 near the Altamaha to the lower 70s GNV and South.

&&

.Aviation.../12z TAF period/...

VFR conditions expected this 12z TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  37  63  45 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  66  50  65  55 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  68  45  67  57 /   0   0  10  50
SGJ  68  53  69  60 /   0   0  30  50
GNV  71  44  69  55 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  72  45  72  56 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$



Office: EYW
Office: MLB FXUS62 KMLB 211419 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 919 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .UPDATE... Cool, dry advection has set up across the area in wake of the cool front that moved through the area overnight and this morning with high pressure building in to our north. Most locations reported low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s this morning with a few low 60s along the Space and Treasure Coasts. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water shows this drier mass settling in with values ranging from 0.60" across northern Volusia county and just over an inch along the Treasure Coast. Other than a slight increase in cirrus later today and some marine stratocu along the coast, plenty of sunshine is expected with this dry air mass in place. Temperatures will be right around late November averages with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... VFR with northerly winds of 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... Today-Tonight...A weak front over central Florida will continue its trek southward this morning before stalling over the Straits of Florida tonight. North winds behind the boundary will veer slightly to the NNE tonight while remaining in the 10-15 kt range. Seas 2-3 feet nearshore and up to 4 feet offshore. Thursday-Sunday (previous)...Local pressure gradient will tighten significantly between a large, strengthening high pressure ridge over the eastern CONUS and a developing inverted surface trough offshore the ECFL coast. Winds/seas will reach SCA levels late Thursday through Friday, however for now the forecast is below the GFS/WNWAVE progs (30KT and 12-13FT) and a little closer to the ECM wind and NWPS wave models. Winds/seas will subside this weekend as the large high to the north weakens and the surface trough lifts out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 54 73 63 / 0 10 40 50 MCO 77 55 75 61 / 0 0 30 40 MLB 76 59 77 65 / 0 10 40 50 VRB 78 61 78 64 / 10 10 30 40 LEE 75 52 73 60 / 0 0 20 30 SFB 77 54 74 61 / 0 0 40 50 ORL 77 56 74 61 / 0 0 30 40 FPR 78 61 78 64 / 10 10 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Combs/Kelly/Rodriguez
Office: MOB FXUS64 KMOB 211744 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1144 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR conditions through 22.18z. Expect increasing mid to high clouds generally from 22.06z through 22.18z. Winds will be mostly north at 4 to 10 knots through 22.18z. 32/ee && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 12Z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots today become light northerly or calm tonight. /29 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...An upper trof over the interior eastern states begins to move off into the western Atlantic during the period. A surface high over the south central and south east states is reinforced by a large surface high building over the eastern states and maintains a dry, light northerly flow over the forecast area. A series of shortwaves advancing eastward from Texas will bring increasing cloud cover mainly to the western portion of the area late tonight, but otherwise clear to mostly clear skies are expected. Highs today will be about 5 degrees below normal and range from around 60 inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast. Lows tonight will be nearly 10 degrees below normal with mid 30s for much of the area except for near 40 at the coast. /29 SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Will begin the short term period with the eastward passage of a southern stream short- wave mid level trof over the Gulf coast. Very little change regarding precipitation with this feature as the main focus for any measurable rains look to be over the coastal waters. Surface high pressure in control from the Mid-Atlantic to across the deep south on Thanksgiving Day with high temperatures, near 60, being about 5 to 8 degrees below seasonal normals. Thursday night reflects some gradual moderation than seen in the near term mins. For holiday shoppers, ensure you have the wet weather gear handy on Friday. A more defined upper level storm system, ejecting quickly east out of the Plains Friday afternoon, makes steady progression across the deep south Friday night. Height falls associated with this feature expands eastward across the upper Mid-West to the Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. This causes a a wave of surface frontal low pressure to form over the western Gulf early Friday which lifts northeast to the LA coast during the day Friday. Wedge of surface high pressure over the southeast looks to remain strong enough as to bring this feature on a more easterly track, keeping warm front near or just south of the coast. The low clips the central Gulf coast Friday night. There appears to be enough instability and shear in place over the coastal waters that would support the potential of some strong storms that are rooted in the warm sector. Low level shear looks to also be adequate for the potential of some supercells that may exhibit rotation in those areas. Could be some thunder over portions of the coast, but looking at current data suggests these will become quickly elevated as they move northeast across the warm front. There is also potential for locally heavy rains, especially near the coast, closer to the low track. At this time, gridded event total rainfall suggests upwards of 2 to 3 inches near the coast, tapering lower as one looks northwest of the coast. /10 LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Quite a temperature swing during the medium range. Friday's system moves quickly out by Saturday, but little in the way of cooling behind this system. In fact, as yet another Plains storm system and front moves east late Saturday and into the MS River Valley Sunday, warm air advection processes become more pronounced. This favors weekend temperatures trending above climatology. Sunday being the warmest day. Rain chances return Sunday with approach of strong cold front. Front makes passage Sunday night. Rains end with frontal passage and temperatures trend lower to start the new week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday about 6 to 10 degrees below normal. /10 MARINE...Moderate to potentially strong northerly winds subside today then become easterly on Thursday. May need to have Small Craft Exercise Caution for much of the area early this morning until the flow subsides. The easterly flow increases Thursday night then becomes a strong southeast flow on Friday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Winds become northwest Friday night as the low pressure system moves across the area then subside on Saturday. A small craft advisory may be required for much of the area Friday and Friday night. The offshore flow subsides on Saturday. /29 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW FXUS62 KTBW 211721 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1221 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .AVIATION... Overall VFR conditions can be expected through the period. Winds will be light out of the north-northeast less than 10 knots through the day. No other aviation impacts expected. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 915 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018/ UPDATE... The day started off with some patchy dense fog for a few hours in some areas, primarily over the fog-prone inland areas. This fog quickly burned off after sunrise and local observations and visible satellite imagery are showing clear skies across Florida this morning. The cool front that pushed through Florida yesterday extends across southern Florida and has allowed for some cooler temps and lower humidities to filter into the area this morning. Reported temperatures and dew points in most areas are around 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, which is feeling very comfortable. The morning 12Z sounding is showing a drastic drop in PW values down to 0.85 inches in the wake of yesterdays cool front. High pressure will build in from the north which will keep rain-free conditions across the area today. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with seasonal temps expected. No changes needed to the forecast at this time. AVIATION... Overall VFR conditions can be expected through the period as the intermittent periods of FG/BR reported at KLAL and KPGD have burned off. Winds will be light out of the north-northeast less than 10 knots through the day. No other aviation impacts expected. MARINE WEATHER... High pressure moves over the southeast U.S. in the wake of a cool front that moved through Florida yesterday. This will keep rain-free conditions and a north-northeast wind flow less than 15 knots over the gulf coast waters through the end of the week. An area of low pressure develops to the northwest over the northern gulf coast by late Friday into Saturday which will bring increasing rain/storm chances and winds will shift to the south-southwest around 15 knots by Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build back in by Sunday with improving conditions into next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 76 56 75 60 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 81 60 78 62 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 78 56 76 60 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 76 58 75 62 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 75 51 74 58 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 75 60 74 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael
Office: TAE FXUS62 KTAE 211706 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1206 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Thursday] Skies will be mostly clear until close to the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and northerly. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1052 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... In the upper levels flow will be nearly zonal. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Southeast. POPs today will be near zero and skies will be sunny. Highs will be in the 60s. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]... A shortwave will exit the Southern Plains to start the period, and pass over the Southeast through the day on Thursday. Due to the stable lower troposphere, surface cyclogenesis is not expected. This wave will likely just bring with it some mid and high level cloudiness through the day. A second shortwave will move through the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. This system will be responsible for ushering in rain chances to end the week as weak Gulf cyclogenesis is forecast. Expect moderating temperatures through the period, warming through the 60s each afternoon. Overnight lows will warm back into the 40s region-wide by Thursday night. .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The bulk of the rain with the aforementioned system will arrive overnight Friday and should be mostly through the region by Saturday afternoon. With favorable deep layer shear and a strengthening LLJ, can't rule out an isolated severe storm (primarily south of I10) where a weakly unstable airmass may slip into the region. A brief break is expected through the weekend before another frontal system move through the region. The next system will be less dynamic as the shortwave will pass further north of the Tri-State region. We could end up just seeing a broken line of showers on Monday morning. Thereafter, a drier and less active period is expected through mid week. .MARINE... Winds and seas are forecast to tick up to Cautionary (and possibly Advisory) levels beginning Thursday night and lasting until the low pressure system moves out of the Gulf on Saturday. Showers and storms will begin as early as Friday and last through Saturday as well. .FIRE WEATHER... Low dispersion values below 20 are possible this afternoon in parts of SW Georgia and the FL Big Bend. Otherwise no fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... The late week/weekend frontal system is forecast to bring average rainfall amounts of 1-3" along the Panhandle and possibly into the Big Bend. Unfortunately this is where some of our more sensitive rivers are located, with the Apalachicola still in flood this morning. Will have to keep an eye on the evolution of the forecast the next couple of days as we continue to assess the flood threat for portions of north Florida. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 39 64 46 68 56 / 0 0 0 20 80 Panama City 44 62 50 68 60 / 0 0 0 30 90 Dothan 37 61 43 61 51 / 0 0 0 30 80 Albany 39 62 43 61 51 / 0 0 0 20 70 Valdosta 40 63 48 66 54 / 0 0 10 30 70 Cross City 41 68 52 74 59 / 0 10 10 20 50 Apalachicola 45 63 52 69 61 / 0 10 10 30 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...McD SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM...Harrigan AVIATION...LN MARINE...Harrigan FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
Office: MFL FXUS62 KMFL 211733 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1233 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .AVIATION... Mostly quiet weather conditions, with the exception of some isolated coastal showers along the east coast. Currently, not anticipating any significant impact to the airports through the TAF period. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to turn the wind easterly for the Atlantic coast early this afternoon. For KAPF, a weak Gulf breeze should turn the wind more northwesterly this afternoon. Tonight, look for the land breeze to bring the wind back to an off shore flow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1043 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018/ UPDATE... Only a few minor changes to the forecast to adjust PoPs over the Atlantic waters. Some models are showing some of the showers could move onshore, but kept it limited to only a slight chance for now, as the models seem as they are over doing precip at this time. So there is still some uncertainty. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to account for current conditions. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018/ DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT: Latest WPC and TAFB surface analysis has a weak cold front passing through the region with another front in central FL working its way down the peninsula. It will be this front that merges and reinforces the other front and move through today. Light northerly flow will become northeasterly this afternoon. A slight chance of showers along the east coast as the second front moves through. Behind the front a drier pocket of air will keep shower activity limited across the area this evening and tonight, lower humidity will bring pleasant temps for the next day or so. Overnight, shower activity will be focused over the Atlantic waters. Low temps will range from upper 50s to around 60 around Lake Okeechobee, to mid 60s along the Gulf coast, upper 60s for east coast metro to around 70 for east coast coastal areas. SHORT TERM (Thursday - Friday): The GFS has come into better agreement with the ECMWF with the vort 500mb shortwave it has been showing much weaker across our area now. The ECMWF still has little to no vort shortwave across the area. The Thanksgiving Day holiday looks like it will be mostly dry with only about a 20 percent chance of scattered showers along the east coast. A little less humid and high temps for the holiday will be right around normal for this time of year in the low 80s. Lower humidity and temps back to normal will be short lived as humidity and moisture content begins to increase across the region Friday. LONG TERM (Weekend into early next week): A low pressure system over the northern Gulf and Florida will have a cold front draped to its south. As the low moves up the eastern CONUS the front will slowly work its way down the peninsula. Ahead of the front southwesterly flow across South Florida will allow temperatures to moderate into the mid 80s and dewpoints rising into the low 70s. The increase in moisture ahead of the front will allow scattered showers to be possible each day. Although timing of the cold front passage varies run to run as we are almost a week out, as of now it looks like the front moves through Tuesday with drier conditions and cooler temps behind the front. MARINE... A chance of showers possible each day over the Atlantic waters. A front moving through the region will shift winds northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas generally 2 feet or less in the Gulf with seas 2 to 3 feet in the Atlantic. Seas begin to build in the Atlantic Friday with a northerly swell this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 67 80 66 80 / 10 20 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 69 81 / 10 20 20 20 Miami 69 81 69 82 / 10 20 20 20 Naples 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && UPDATE...13 DISCUSSION...33/Kelly MARINE...33/Kelly AVIATION...13