fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 190525
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1225 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Foggy Mornings Through the End of the Week. Wednesday:
Potentially Areas of Dense Fog along the I-95 & HWY 301 corridors.
Fog mixing with smoke from wildfires may locally restrict
visibilities to
- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
A weak and subtle front/trough just offshore to the east today
will lift off to the northeast tonight as the area remains under
the influence of the western periphery of a surface ridge. Some
scattered low level clouds are streaming towards the coast and
just onshore at times thanks to the coastal trough, but otherwise
a mostly sunny and mild rest of the day will be expected with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. The more onshore flow
will keep conditions a bit cooler near the coast as highs stay in
the low to mid 70s range. Very weak flow overnight and a bit more
low level moisture thanks to the onshore flow today will up our
fog chances tonight, especially south and east of about the
Waycross area. Patchy to areas of fog will be likely as well as
patchy dense fog with visibilities under 1/2 mile at times. Low
temps will range from the upper 40s to low 50s inland and the mid
to upper 50s closer to the coast and St. Johns River.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
After a foggy morning, skies will clear and pave the way for above
normal temperatures as high pressure remains overhead. Highs will
climb into the 80s inland and the immediate northeast Florida
coast, while the southeast Georgia coast peaks in the upper 70s.
Another round of morning fog will be likely Thursday morning over
most of inland northeast Florida as lows drop into the 50s to low
60s near the water. Thursday will again be above average for
temperatures in the 80s inland, with coastal temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s as a light coastal breeze develops.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Dry and warm conditions continue on Friday with inland highs
reaching the 80s again with partly cloudy skies as more moisture
influxes the area from an approaching front. The front will bring
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Saturday
afternoon over far inland southeast Georgia. The front will pass
through this weekend leaving dry conditions, but will not lower
temperatures much, keeping highs above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
Fog has begun to develop across SGJ, VQQ and CRG tonight. IFR/LIFR
fog is anticipated to advect north and west through the night
across all TAF sites. Fog/stratus should lift and dissipate by 14Z
with SGJ likely clearing by 12Z. Westerly winds around 5 knots
develop after 14Z. Another round of fog will be possible early
Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
A weak and coastal trough over the waters will lift northeastward
tonight, with a a few isolated showers possible off the northeast
Florida coast through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the end of
the week resulting in light winds and low seas across the local
waters. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible within about 10
miles of the coast each morning over the next several days. Over
the weekend, winds turn offshore and become breezy as a cold front
approaches and passes Sunday night. High pressure building in
behind the front will move offshore to the northeast early next
week setting up onshore flow and development of a coastal trough.
Rip Currents: Rip current risk is moderate today with onshore
flow. This risk falls slightly Wednesday and through the rest of
the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Record High Temperatures For The Rest of The Week:
Wednesday, November 19:
KJAX: 84/1958
KAMG: 82/1942
KCRG: 82/1984
Thursday, November 20:
KJAX: 86/1988
KGNV: 88/1906
KAMG: 83/1942
Friday, November 21:
KJAX: 84/1991
KGNV: 86/1973
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 82/2004
Saturday, November 22:
KJAX: 84/1973
KGNV: 86/1906
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 81/1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 82 56 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 78 59 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 82 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 80 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 83 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 82 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS62 KJAX 190556
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1256 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Foggy Mornings Through the End of the Week. This morning -
Potentially Areas of Dense Fog along the I-95 & Highway 301.
- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with
outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley
&&
.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...
High pressure centered over Bermuda will continue to extend its
ridge axis southwestward across the SE US through tonight. The
influx of low level moisture (PWATs 0.8-1 in.) across coastal
locations earlier will promote fog development across much of the
area through sunrise. Patchy dense fog has already begun to
develop across the I-95 corridor south of Jacksonville. Fog is
anticipated to advect north and west through the night with the
best chances for dense fog along the I-95 and HWY 301 corridors.
After the fog dissipates, a warm and sunny day with light westerly
winds is in store. Prevailing subsidence and clear skies will
allow for above seasonable to near record high temperatures this
afternoon ranging in the upper 70s along the coast to the low-mid
80s inland. Another round of fog will be possible late tonight
into early Thursday morning. With the warm, moist westerly flow,
fog will likely advect in from the Gulf into the Suwannee Valley.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)...
Quiet weather with foggy mornings are expected under the
influence of high pressure over the area. Patchy to areas of fog
are expected, with a combination of both radiation Thursday
morning and advective fog Friday morning.
As high pressure shifts offshore, warm and moist southerly flow
may lead to fuzzy or even patchy sea fog Friday afternoon and
night. Otherwise, dry and near-record warmth is expected with
highs pushing into the mid 80s each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)...
Southwesterly flow will continue as a weak, slow-moving cold
front approaches from the northwest and pushes through the
forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. This could set up
some advective fog ahead of it with moisture pooling ahead of it.
Unfortunately, without much dynamic forcing and strong convergence
along the boundary, minimal, if any, rainfall is expected with
the front passage. Progressive ridging will be to the north,
shifting eastward, early next week resulting in an onshore flow
and potential weak coastal troughing. Above normal warmth will
continue through the weekend, threatening daily records. Morning
episodes of fog is expected and there could be another low chance
of sea fog next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
Fog has begun to develop across SGJ, VQQ and CRG tonight. IFR/LIFR
fog is anticipated to advect north and west through the night
across all TAF sites. Fog/stratus should lift and dissipate by 14Z
with SGJ likely clearing by 12Z. Westerly winds around 5 knots
develop after 14Z. Another round of fog will be possible early
Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds
and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through
the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional
wind gusts to Gale Force. Strong high pressure will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard today. Coastal troughing will sharpen over
our local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly
by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the
Mid- Atlantic states.
Rip currents: Rip current risk will be low in the offshore flow
through the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry, warm weather and increasing humidity trends continue amid
the ongoing drought through the weekend. Not any significant fire
weather "watch outs" are expected over the next few days. Our main
concern will be morning fog, which could be locally dense, and
poor afternoon dispersions due to minimal surface and transport
winds. Breezy southwesterly winds will start to increase with
gusts up to 15 mph on Friday as a weak cold front slowly
approaches from the northwest. That front will pass through
Saturday night and Sunday with minimal showers if any at all.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Record High Temperatures For Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), Alma, GA
(KAMG), and Craig Airfield (KCRG) through the Rest of The Week:
Today, November 19:
KJAX: 84/1958
KAMG: 82/1942
KCRG: 82/1984
Thursday, November 20:
KJAX: 86/1988
KGNV: 88/1906
KAMG: 83/1942
Friday, November 21:
KJAX: 84/1991
KGNV: 86/1973
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 82/2004
Saturday, November 22:
KJAX: 84/1973
KGNV: 86/1906
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 81/1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 82 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 78 60 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 83 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 80 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 84 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 83 54 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 190545
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
- Patchy fog is expected to form for the next few mornings. There
is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic
beaches.
- High pressure near Florida will continue to deliver dry and warm
weather over the next week.
- Our next significant cold front still looks to be more than a
week away, perhaps arriving around or just after Thanksgiving.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
This morning, Florida resides on the northeastern periphery of upper
high pressure situated over the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, a
ridge axis extends northward through the eastern Plains to Hudson
Bay. A deep cut-off low sits over San Diego, and additional jet
stream energy is set to move off the Pacific over the coming days.
This will ensure that the upper high over the Gulf remains nearly
stationary for the rest of the week. By the weekend, guidance ejects
a shortwave from the West Coast trough into confluent flow over the
Ohio Valley, forcing it to weaken as it moves eastward. This feature
may briefly cause heights to dip over the Southeast U.S. late in the
weekend. By early next week, ridging is set to expand eastward over
Florida as a pair of disturbances begins to migrate toward the
Plains. Confidence in the synoptic pattern for the next 6-7 days is
very good as model spread remains low.
An axis of surface high pressure is forecast to remain over
Florida for the remainder of the week. By Sunday, a weakening
front approaches North Florida before dissipating nearby on
Monday. Another bubble of high pressure then noses off the East
Coast by next Tuesday, delivering east to southeast breezes to
the state for the middle of next week. H85 temperature anomalies
of +1 to +3 deg C are anticipated through the next seven days,
and any deeper moisture is set to remain north of Central Florida.
Looking ahead, the ensemble means continue to indicate a couple of
signals to watch next week. The first feature, embedded in the
subtropical jet, exits the Sonoran Desert by Monday. It should pass
north of Florida around next Wednesday. The second feature, moving
from the NE Pacific on Monday to the Great Lakes around
Thanksgiving Day, looks stronger. This disturbance holds the best
chance for a bona fide cold frontal passage around next Friday
(28th).
Still, any sort of cooldown is expected to remain limited
in duration as additional Pacific energy enters the West by
month's end, most likely forcing heights to build over Florida
for the first days of December. Extended-range models still
favor increasing cold weather risks as we move deeper into
December.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Today - Saturday...
A very tranquil forecast as high pressure sits overhead. We
anticipate nearly rinse-and-repeat conditions each day with
plentiful sunshine and above-normal daytime temperatures generally
in the low/mid 80s. Patchy fog is still expected due to the very
light winds, allowing for high morning RH values. Locally dense
fog cannot be ruled out; this will be a hazard to keep an eye on
each morning.
Sunday - Next Week...
A weak cold front teases the state late Sunday into Monday before
dissipating with little fanfare. Ahead of it, westerly winds may
gust up to around 15 mph on Sunday afternoon. By early next week,
we still anticipate warm and dry conditions as onshore flow quickly
returns. Each day, expect upper 70s/low 80s beachside to low/mid
80s elsewhere.
Moisture increases a bit by the middle of next week, but with
deep-layer high pressure close, we see no reason quite yet
to introduce rain chances. An area of low pressure passing
to our northwest around next Wednesday may send a front
into N Florida. Thereafter, confidence lessens as a second
(stronger) disturbance is due to arrive over the Midwest around
Thanksgiving. At this time, Central Florida still looks to be on
the warm side for the holiday, but rain chances cannot be ruled
out by then as the front slowly approaches.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
Tranquil boating conditions continue for the local waters. A large
axis of high pressure will sit over Florida through at least
Saturday, delivering light and variable winds enhanced by the
daily sea breeze. A weak front approaches the local Atlantic by
Sunday before dissipating as high pressure returns early next week.
Winds light and variable, turning easterly up to 10 KT along
the coast each afternoon. Before the sea breeze forms, winds veer
south-to-southeast on Saturday, eventually turning west-to-northwest
on Sunday due to the next approaching front, all less than 12
KT. Seas 2-3 FT today, lessening to 1-2 FT from Thursday through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
High pressure ridge axis across the area will keep winds light and
variable and skies clear to mostly clear. A weak sea breeze will
increase winds out of the NE 7-8 knots at coastal terminals this
afternoon.
Mainly VFR conditions. However, conditions are favorable for patchy
fog formation through sunrise. 00Z HREF guidance shows greatest
probabilities east-northeast of KMCO through the I-95 corridor
southward through inland Brevard and portions of the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee County. Any fog will produce tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions, with LIFR conditions occurring in spots where dense fog
is able to form. This is more likely to occur at fog-prone terminals
FPR and VRB. Have included visibility reductions at all TAF sites
with greatest fog potential between 10-13Z. Any sub-VFR conditions
will return to VFR by 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
Today and Thursday, RH values near and north of I-4 dip to around
40% in the afternoon. These fire-sensitive RH readings then increase
from Friday into the weekend as more moisture returns. Light winds
(under 10 mph) are expected each day as high pressure settles
overhead. Nearly calm winds overnight will continue to be favorable
for patchy fog development. Any fog that mixes with smoke from
ongoing fires may worsen visibility in their vicinity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 61 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 81 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 82 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 82 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 82 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 190528
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1128 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Areas of dense fog will be possible across southeastern
Mississippi and southwest Alabama again tonight into Wednesday
morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible each morning this
week.
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
until the rain arrives.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Areas of dense fog will be possible across southeastern
Mississippi and southwest Alabama again tonight into Wednesday
morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible each morning this week.
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area until
the rain arrives.
Now through Monday...
An upper ridge stretching north over the eastern Conus will build as
an upper trough digs over the western Conus through mid week. Energy
from the western upper trough ejects, flowing through the flow over
the eastern upper ridge, helping to deamplify the ridge. The ridge
keeps the bulk of the energy north of the forecast area into the
coming weekend, though. The ridge also helps to maintain a surface
ridge stretching southwest along the East coast. This surface ridge
in concert with a developing surface low over the Plains increases
onshore flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then the
Southeast the end of the week into the weekend before a cold front
crosses these regions Friday night into Saturday. Precipitable h20
values creep up to around 1.7" ahead of the approaching front. Rain
returns to the forecast area Friday, lasting into the weekend in
response, though with the better upper dynamics passing north of the
forecast area, the resultant higher PoPs occur over northwestern
portions of the forecast area Friday/Friday night. The risk of any
rowdy storms Friday/Friday night is low, with limited instability
(MUCapes < 800J/kg) along with meh wind shear (Bulk Wind shear
<=32kts). The more progressive nature of the passing upper dynamics
will also help to limit any water issues.
Fog development is likely tonight, and again Wednesday night, with
enough mixing combined with a very moist boundary developing as
temperatures cool overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
tonight, starting at 06z/midnight, for areas over and west of a
Baldwin County to Clarke County.
Upper subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures will
above seasonal norms through the forecast. High temperatures in the
upper 70s to around 80 well inland, mid 70s along the coast are
expected through the forecast. Low temperatures see an upward creep
through the rest of the week until the front's passage this coming
weekend. Mid 50s to around 60 expected Wednesday night rise into the
mid to upper 60s Friday night. Post frontal, low temperatures drop
into the low 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s south of I-10
Sunday night.
Onshore winds increase through the week, with the Rip Risk
increasing to Moderate to High Friday night through the weekend.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Dense Fog will be an issue with most of the forecast area tonight.
Developing stratus will temper some areas. Drops to LIFR VISBYs, or
even lower, are possible over significant portions of the forecast
area. This fog will mix out beginning soon after sunrise and should
be gone by mid morning. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected today
under southeast to southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots. Fog development
is again possible late Wednesday evening as winds become light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Light to at times moderate onshore flow increases to
moderate this weekend. A light to moderate post frontal offshore
flow comes to area waters Sunday. No impacts expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 61 80 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 77 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 62 76 62 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 56 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 59 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 58 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 54 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>053-
261>266.
FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 190133
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
833 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy late night and early morning fog each day.
- Sunny and dry with temperatures near to a few degrees above
normal through early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Fog development appears to be a possibility once again overnight
given the light to calm flow and mostly clear skies, though
forecast confidence in the overall coverage of fog development
remains low at this time. Thus, will keep the patchy fog messaging
in the forecast for the overnight hours for nearly the entire
forecast area but not expecting it to be completely area-wide.
Other than the fog potential, it will continue to remain quiet for
the remainder of this evening with overnight lows dropping into
the low/mid 50s for the Nature Coast and upper 50s to low 60s for
the remainder of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon
will drift east out into the Atlantic Ocean over the next few
days, but continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula into
this weekend. Late in the weekend a weakening cold front will
settle into north Florida and washout early next week with another
area of high pressure building in from the north with a repeat of
this week. Therefore, over the next week we will continue to see
fair dry weather with the only potential issue being some late
night and early morning fog each day. Daytime high temperatures
will remain near to a few degrees above normal in the lower to mid
80s, except mid to upper 70s along the coast where an afternoon
sea breeze is expected each day. Overnight lows will continue near
normal in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Areas of patchy fog may develop across portions of the region
tonight, which may result in an extended period of IFR/LIFR
conditions but overall forecast confidence in location of fog
development remains low at this time. Any fog that develops will
dissipate around 14Z on Wednesday with VFR conditions then expected
area-wide for the remainder of the day. Light and VRB winds
overnight will then be mainly ENE on Wednesday, though a shift to
the NNW may occur at coastal sites tomorrow afternoon as a weak sea
breeze develops.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
High pressure will settle across the waters into the weekend,
keeping rain free conditions in place. Winds and seas will remain
well below headline criteria.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States will drift east out
into the Atlantic Ocean over the next few days, but continue to
ridge west across the Florida peninsula. This will continue the
fair dry weather with light easterly flow becoming onshore near
the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Relative
humidity values will remain above critical thresholds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 53 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 182353
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 647 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Fog may develop over the next few nights lingering into the
morning commute. Where fog mixes with smoke, expected very
restricted visibilities in localized spots. Use caution if
driving during late night or early morning hours. Slow down,
leave extra space, and turn on headlights.
- No significant rainfall expected through the remainder of the
week. Drought conditions will continue and/or get worse across
the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Deep ridging will allow for a surface high to continue to prevail
overhead bringing calm conditions today and into tomorrow. Low
humidities and PWATS will bring clear skies and light easterly flow
will generate warmer temps this afternoon. A weak frontal system
behind the ridge continues to build, very slowly bringing back
moisture over the northwest part of the region. Elevated fire weather
concerns are apparent due to current drought conditions. However,
calm winds and slight increase in moisture lessens the concern
slightly.
Calm winds and low-level moisture returning tonight can enable
radiational cooling that may bring patchy fog to parts of the region,
decreasing visibility, tonight and into tomorrow morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
As a weak frontal system makes it way toward the district, moisture
continues to increase throughout this week. Radiation fog and drought
threat will be the main issue of concern through the end of the
week. As the frontal system moves through, higher moisture will
bring increased cloud cover with stronger winds mixing the low level
environment enough for radiation fog to be less of a concern. Any
chance of precipitation may be Saturday afternoon, although models
continue to trend lower. A lowering trend of precipitation over the
weekend will bring little to no relief to the expansive drought
conditions across the forecast region. Toward the end of the
weekend, post- frontal, dry air with above average temps are expected
to return.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
VFR conditions are present at the start of this TAF period.
Visibility will begin to lower and winds become calm during the
early morning hours; KDHN and KECP show the highest potential for
fog between 10Z and 13Z with deteriorating flight conditions to
LIFR or even VLIFR. KTLH and KABY show a similar pattern,
although visibility may not be quite as low as terminals further
west but still degraded conditions falling to LIFR. At KVLD,
there is a possibility for MVFR vsbys but confidence is low. All
sites are expected to return to VFR conditions by about 15Z, and
these conditions remain to the end of this TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Light and gentle breezes will prevail through Wednesday, as high
pressure settles over the waters. As the high center moves east
and a low center approaches the Mississippi Valley on Thursday,
southeasterly and southerly winds will start to increase. Only
forecast concerns will be the possibility of near-shore marine
fog later in the week as southerly flow returns. The probabilities
would be highest across the Apalachee Bay where cooler shelf
waters could result in some sea fog formation later in the week.
Winds behind the cold front late Saturday into Sunday will become
more westerly to northwesterly.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Light west to northwest transport winds are expected across the area
Wednesday. A sea breeze will push inland over the Emerald Coast
Wednesday afternoon and will cause winds to shift out of the
southwest. Min RH values will drop into the mid 30s over the inland
parts of the FL Big Bend into south central GA with 40s and above
farther west and near the coast. Low dispersions are anticipated
near the coast with fair to good dispersions inland.
For Thursday and Friday, transport winds become more southwesterly
across the area with increasing RH ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds are still light Thursday, but increase to 10-15 mph on
Friday. Dispersions will be low near the coast still on Thursday,
but will be good inland. Dispersions become good areawide Friday
with some high dispersions over south Georgia.
Given the very dry antecedent conditions, fires could still easily
start and spread despite the increasing humidity.
Fog is possible in the overnight hours the next few nights.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Rainfall through Sunday is expected to be near zero, drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area.
Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 50 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 57 78 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 54 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 51 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 50 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 48 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 56 74 58 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 190533
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1233 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
- Mainly sunny and pleasant conditions will remain in place
across South Florida through the week.
- Patchy fog is possible early this morning over interior
portions of South FL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
Mainly dry and sunny conditions will continue to prevail over the
next couple of days. Mid-level ridging continues to build over the
CONUS today, while at the surface high pressure will continue to
drift into the Atlantic over the next couple of days. This will
maintain northeasterly flow over the area, and mainly clear skies.
High temperatures today will reach the lower 80s along the
coastline, with mid to upper 80s possible for portions of interior
South Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
Not much change with the long term outlook as high pressure firmly
remains in control through the weekend into the new work-week. Late
in the weekend a weakening cold front will settle into north Florida
and washout early next week with another area of high pressure
building in from the north. East-northeast flow prevails with the
exception of Sunday where flow will briefly veer more southerly as
the boundary approaches northern Florida. As this feature fizzles,
east-northeast flow returns by Monday. Outside of a few areas of
patchy fog each night and early morning, there really isn't much
expected outside of mostly sunny skies each day.
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon along
the coasts while some portions of inland SW Florida may hit the
upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
VFR prevails through the period. Light and variable winds continue
for the remainder of the nighttime period. Later today, winds
increase again out of the NE at 5-10 kts with KAPF seeing a wind
shift to the NW in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze will prevail across local
waters today and tomorrow. Wave heights should remain 3 feet or
less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 83 71 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 84 66 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 84 69 84 68 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 82 69 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 82 71 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 82 71 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 85 69 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 83 69 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 84 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 85 65 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Redman
