fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 191745
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
145 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
First dose of anomalous heat this summer starts now. A deeply
stacked upper ridge centered over Florida is the primary feature
driving temperatures to near-record levels this afternoon.
Comparing this morning's RAOB heights and thickness layers to the
climo norms, both the 850mb and 500mb heights both measured in the
90th percentile today. A Heat Advisory (expanded in area earlier)
today remains in effect through 6 PM with Major Heat Risk to
sensitive groups this afternoon. Heat Index readings as of noon
have already reached the 102-107 and there's still another 4 hours
of heating to go. Highs this afternoon will push into the upper
90s. Being extra cautious when working outside will be very
important today as will hydrating!
In addition to turning up the heat, the subsidence inversions
offered by the upper ridge will limit convective coverage this
afternoon, though scattered showers and storms are still possible,
mainly across NE FL with PoPs around 20-40%. Though the storm
coverage will be on the lower side of what is typical for mid July,
they still make pack a punch with wind gusts potentially up to 40-60
mph as drier air will aid evaporative cooling within downdrafts
(DCAPE measured over 1,000 J/kg).
There will be some relief once the sun sets this evening and
temperatures cool under mostly clear skies tonight. Lows are
expected to be in the usual range, mid 70s inland and upper 70s
closer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Sunday, low/mid level ridging will be over the NE to north central
Gulf waters to our west and southwest. Drier than average airmass
(PWATs about 1.5 to 1.75 inches close to the 25th percentile for
drier air) and subsidence under the ridge will limit chances for showers
for most of the area to under 10 percent. A bit more moisture across
north central FL and to the north over the Altamaha river basin will
allow for up to a 20 percent chance of T'storms in the afternoon.
For Monday, the low/mid level ridge will shift onto the central
Gulf coast as the trough, initially positioned along the Southeast
US coast, sinks into the area through the day. Aloft the low and
mid level flow will turn northwesterly. Additional moisture (PWATs
climbing to 2.0-2.25 inches (90th percentile this time of year)
will pool into the area along and ahead of the trough axis as it
moves southward. The combination of lift along the trough, higher
moisture, and shortwave energy arriving from around the periphery
of the ridge to the west will produce scattered to numerous showers
and T'storms across NE FL as the Gulf seabreeze moves inland and
near the coast where the Atlantic seabreeze stays pinned as light
west to southwest flow prevails.
Hot temperatures are expected each day with highs Sunday reaching
near the century mark from Jacksonville westward along and north of
I-10 and into the upper 90s for most areas on Monday. Heat index
values from the hot temperatures will also combine with dewpoints
in the mid 70s to create heat index values 106-112 degrees across
much of the area, except for areas north and west of Waycross.
Therefore, heat advisories are likely for a majority of NE FL and
along into the SE GA coast the next couple of days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Next week, the low/mid level ridge will slide westward into the
north central Gulf as a trough/weak frontal boundary settles
southward along the Southeast U.S. coast towards the area.
Tuesday and Wednesday, the front will slide into the area with
PWATs reaching near daily max values (above 2.3-2.4 inches). The
combination of very high moisture, lift from the front, shortwave
energy aloft with a mid/upper trough moving SE off the eastern
seaboard will promote widespread showers and T'storms over our
area each day. The mid level temps will stay near to slightly
warmer than climatology (about -5 to -7 Celsius), so the potential
for strong gusty downburst winds will remain given steep low level
lapse in the afternoon where seabreeze and storm outflow collisions
occur, especially Tuesday before more persistent east to northeast
winds arrive into Wednesday as high pressure ridge axis builds down
the east coast. The front will be stalled over the area on Wednesday
with the flow from the east northeast promoting convergent onshore
flow that will help enhance bands of showers moving onto the coast
with locally heavy rainfall possible from heavy downpours. The
Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk of rainfall for
Tuesday and Wednesday as the front arrives.
Thursday into Friday, the front will begin to weaken with some drier
air working in from the north into SE GA as weak high pressure extends
from near coastal New England into the Carolinas and then shift off
the SC/NC coast. This will slightly limit chances to scattered to
numerous T'storms over SE GA by Friday with numerous coverage over
NE FL as the front becomes more diffuse and high moisture remains
over our area.
Temperatures will begin the period above normal as highs remain in
the mid to upper 90s away from the coast with high heat index values
potentially into heat advisory levels Tuesday before highs trend back
to near to slightly above normal Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
An atypical summer day with limited diurnal convection likely due to
subsidence warming beneath a formidable upper ridge and less
moisture availability. Light westerly winds will hold off the sea
breeze for a little but the easterly sea breeze will push inland
this afternoon reach KJAX around 20-21z. Though there are limiting
factors a vicinity shower cannot be fully ruled out this afternoon.
Prevailing VFR is expected through the afternoon outside of any
shower/storm influence. Localized ground fog may develop at KVQQ but
fog is not otherwise expected to impact any other TAF sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
High pressure over Florida today will begin to shift west into the
Gulf tonight as a weak trough of low pressure pushes into the waters
from the north Sunday and Monday. The trough may attempt to close
into a low pressure center by Tuesday or Wednesday next as high
pressure pushes in from the north. Enhancing gradients with the
building high will lead to breezy northeasterly flow Wednesday and
Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be minimal through the rest of
the weekend but next week, as low pressure attempts to organize
offshore, afternoon thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
in the local waters.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents in effect at all areas
beaches this weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Ridge of high pressure over north central FL this afternoon will
shift into the northeast Gulf waters tonight into Sunday with
light west to southwest winds limiting the Atlantic seabreeze to
the coast and locations east of I-95 through sunset with only
isolated T'storms over SE Georgia and isolated to scattered
T'storms over NE Florida. More westerly flow develops Sunday as a
trough forms over the southeast US keeping the Atlantic seabreeze
pinned near the beachfront with only isolated T'storms near the
Altamaha basin and the southern St Johns basin due to drier air.
Increased transport winds over the north half of the area will
develop areas of high daytime dispersion this afternoon, then along
and north of I-10 Sunday as transport winds increase further south.
Monday into next week, increased moisture and shifting winds will
raise rain chances back to normal and then above normal. And with
breezy west to northwest transport winds Monday, high daytime
dispersions are expected along and north of I-10.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday, July 22
Today Sunday Monday Tuesday
---------------------------------------
Jacksonville 101/2000 103/2000 102/1942 101/1942
Gainesville 101/1899 100/1942 102/1942 99/1907
Alma, GA 102/2002 104/2000 102/1942 100/1942
Craig Airport 99/1993 100/2000 98/2015 99/1977
Daily record high minimums at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday, July 22
Today Sunday Monday Tuesday
---------------------------------------
Jacksonville 78/1934 80/1872 81/1942 81/1872
Gainesville 77/2018 77/2018 78/1894 77/2015
Alma, GA 77/1986 79/1986 78/2015 76/2021
Craig Airport 77/2022 79/2023 81/2023 78/2025
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 98 78 98 / 10 10 10 40
SSI 80 96 81 95 / 10 10 10 40
JAX 77 100 79 98 / 10 10 10 60
SGJ 77 96 78 95 / 10 10 10 50
GNV 74 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 60
OCF 75 96 76 95 / 10 10 0 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ149-151>154-162-
163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 192311
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
711 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Brevard, Lake, Orange,
Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia counties until 6 PM for peak heat
indices of 108 to 110 degrees.
- Very warm and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices
up to 110 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts continue
across portions of east central Florida through early next week.
- Rain and lightning storm chances remain below normal through
this weekend, with chances increasing once again next week as a
weakening front and high moisture approach from the north.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Currently...Wasn't hard to find the ridge axis from the Atlantic
surface high in this morning's cu-field, extending west-southwest
from near Sebastian/Vero Beach inland. A decent amount of moisture
remains near the surface, contributing to the oppressive heat,
while at the same time very dry conditions in the low-mid levels
have been hostile to deep convection. GOES PWATs range from 1.4"
along the coast behind the sea breeze, to around 1.6" across most
of East Central Florida, peaking around 1.8" north of I-4 where a
few showers and lightning storms have managed to develop on the
east coast sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries.
Rest of Today...Subsidence from mid-level ridging directly over
central Florida and southerly flow around the ridge axis will push
afternoon temperatures into the L-M90s, which combined with
humidity will produce peak heat indices between 102-110, higher to
north where it's a little warmer. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia
counties until 6 PM. This level of heat can impact most people
spending extended periods of time outdoors, putting everyone at a
greater risk for heat stress. If spending long durations outside
today, be sure to remain adequately hydrated, take frequent breaks
in the shade or air conditioning, wear lightweight, lightly
colored clothing, and if possible, shift activities away from the
peak heating hours of the day.
Expect little to no relief from rain (in fact rain might actually
make things work by spiking humidity), as entrainment and
subsidence continue to be significant hurdles to deep convection.
There's a 10-20% chance of showers and lightning storms popping up
on boundaries and the sea breeze through the rest of the
afternoon, increasing to all of 20-40% along and north of the I-4
corridor in the evening with the sea breeze collision and higher
moisture. That said, any storms that manage to develop will be
capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 45
mph, and brief heavy downpours thanks to T500 remaining around -8C
and downdraft enhancement from the dry air.
Sunday-Monday...The mid-level ridge shifts westward, reducing the
effect of subsidence warming some, but low-level flow becoming
more southerly to southwesterly as the ridge axis shifts further
south makes up the difference and then some, helping to push high
temperatures closer to the M-U90s, especially Monday. While
forecast dewpoint temperatures have dropped a degree or two since
the previous package, these hot temperatures combined with
humidity are still expected to produce peak afternoon heat
indices of 102-110, especially from Osceola and Brevard counties
north where the effect of the southerly to southwesterly flow will
have the greatest impact (i.e. it'll be hot), and additional Heat
Advisories remain on the table. Rain and storm chances remain
dismal Sunday at just 20-30% inland (well inland to the south),
but begin to improve Monday increasing to 20-50% across the area
as the high aloft departs westward and low-mid level moisture
increases ahead of an approaching weakening front. Any storms
that manage to develop remain capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours, with higher
chances of seeing these stronger storms Monday as the environment
becomes more favorable and overall coverage increases. Showers
and storms continue to follow the usual afternoon timing pattern,
diminishing into the late evening and early overnight, but chances
for convection lingering late across the local Atlantic waters
increases Monday night.
Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) By Tuesday, the
mid-level ridge weakens across the Gulf, allowing a weakening
front to approach Florida. The front is forecast to stall just
north of the area, with the potential for a low to develop along
the boundary and shift westward towards the Gulf. This is forecast
to result in increasing moisture across east central Florida,
with PWATs surging above 2 inches once again. Rain and storm
chances increase through the remainder of the work week, with PoPs
capped at 70 percent through the extended period at this time.
While it is still too early to determine exact storm threats,
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will all be possible
given the current model guidance.
Heat will continue to be a concern through next week, though
highs fall slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s thanks to the
greater rain and storm chances helping to limit daytime heating.
However, conditions remain muggy, with peak heat indices still
forecast to reach 102 to 107 across much of east central Florida.
Some areas may exceed advisory thresholds, but confidence in this
does remain lower this far out. Lows remains seasonable in the low
to mid 70s overnight, with muggy conditions persisting.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Generally favorable albeit hot boating conditions continue through
the weekend and early next week. The ridge axis of the Atlantic
high will slowly drop from Central Florida today to South Florida
by Monday, as a front and associated higher moisture moves into
the Deep South. Mostly dry conditions expected through Sunday,
then rain chances increase again Monday. The high further weakens
going towards mid-week, allowing the weakening frontal boundary to
drop closer to Florida. High rain chances return as moisture
surges across the area, and there is potential for a low pressure
system to develop along this boundary, causing winds and seas to
deteriorate. Mainly southerly winds backing to the southeast to
east in the afternoon with the sea breeze today and Sunday become
more southwesterly, backing to the south to southeast with the sea
breeze Monday onward. Seas 1-3 ft through Tuesday could increase
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Unusually quiet TAFs through this weekend as high pressure
suppresses convection. Light/variable winds over the Greater
Orlando area for much of the period, becoming ESE up to 12 KT at
the coastal airfields Sunday afternoon. Small (<= 30%) chance of
showers/storms for Greater Orlando area terminals returning after
20/21Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 40
MCO 76 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 40
MLB 76 92 76 94 / 0 10 10 30
VRB 74 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20
LEE 77 95 77 94 / 20 20 10 40
SFB 76 97 77 97 / 10 20 10 40
ORL 77 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 40
FPR 74 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Heil
FXUS62 KMLB 192313
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
713 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
- Very warm and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices
up to 110 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts continue
across portions of east central Florida through early next week.
- Rain and lightning storm chances remain below normal through
this weekend, with chances increasing once again next week as a
weakening front and high moisture approach from the north.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Currently...Wasn't hard to find the ridge axis from the Atlantic
surface high in this morning's cu-field, extending west-southwest
from near Sebastian/Vero Beach inland. A decent amount of moisture
remains near the surface, contributing to the oppressive heat,
while at the same time very dry conditions in the low-mid levels
have been hostile to deep convection. GOES PWATs range from 1.4"
along the coast behind the sea breeze, to around 1.6" across most
of East Central Florida, peaking around 1.8" north of I-4 where a
few showers and lightning storms have managed to develop on the
east coast sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries.
Rest of Today...Subsidence from mid-level ridging directly over
central Florida and southerly flow around the ridge axis will push
afternoon temperatures into the L-M90s, which combined with
humidity will produce peak heat indices between 102-110, higher to
north where it's a little warmer. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia
counties until 6 PM. This level of heat can impact most people
spending extended periods of time outdoors, putting everyone at a
greater risk for heat stress. If spending long durations outside
today, be sure to remain adequately hydrated, take frequent breaks
in the shade or air conditioning, wear lightweight, lightly
colored clothing, and if possible, shift activities away from the
peak heating hours of the day.
Expect little to no relief from rain (in fact rain might actually
make things work by spiking humidity), as entrainment and
subsidence continue to be significant hurdles to deep convection.
There's a 10-20% chance of showers and lightning storms popping up
on boundaries and the sea breeze through the rest of the
afternoon, increasing to all of 20-40% along and north of the I-4
corridor in the evening with the sea breeze collision and higher
moisture. That said, any storms that manage to develop will be
capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 45
mph, and brief heavy downpours thanks to T500 remaining around -8C
and downdraft enhancement from the dry air.
Sunday-Monday...The mid-level ridge shifts westward, reducing the
effect of subsidence warming some, but low-level flow becoming
more southerly to southwesterly as the ridge axis shifts further
south makes up the difference and then some, helping to push high
temperatures closer to the M-U90s, especially Monday. While
forecast dewpoint temperatures have dropped a degree or two since
the previous package, these hot temperatures combined with
humidity are still expected to produce peak afternoon heat
indices of 102-110, especially from Osceola and Brevard counties
north where the effect of the southerly to southwesterly flow will
have the greatest impact (i.e. it'll be hot), and additional Heat
Advisories remain on the table. Rain and storm chances remain
dismal Sunday at just 20-30% inland (well inland to the south),
but begin to improve Monday increasing to 20-50% across the area
as the high aloft departs westward and low-mid level moisture
increases ahead of an approaching weakening front. Any storms
that manage to develop remain capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours, with higher
chances of seeing these stronger storms Monday as the environment
becomes more favorable and overall coverage increases. Showers
and storms continue to follow the usual afternoon timing pattern,
diminishing into the late evening and early overnight, but chances
for convection lingering late across the local Atlantic waters
increases Monday night.
Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) By Tuesday, the
mid-level ridge weakens across the Gulf, allowing a weakening
front to approach Florida. The front is forecast to stall just
north of the area, with the potential for a low to develop along
the boundary and shift westward towards the Gulf. This is forecast
to result in increasing moisture across east central Florida,
with PWATs surging above 2 inches once again. Rain and storm
chances increase through the remainder of the work week, with PoPs
capped at 70 percent through the extended period at this time.
While it is still too early to determine exact storm threats,
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will all be possible
given the current model guidance.
Heat will continue to be a concern through next week, though
highs fall slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s thanks to the
greater rain and storm chances helping to limit daytime heating.
However, conditions remain muggy, with peak heat indices still
forecast to reach 102 to 107 across much of east central Florida.
Some areas may exceed advisory thresholds, but confidence in this
does remain lower this far out. Lows remains seasonable in the low
to mid 70s overnight, with muggy conditions persisting.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Generally favorable albeit hot boating conditions continue through
the weekend and early next week. The ridge axis of the Atlantic
high will slowly drop from Central Florida today to South Florida
by Monday, as a front and associated higher moisture moves into
the Deep South. Mostly dry conditions expected through Sunday,
then rain chances increase again Monday. The high further weakens
going towards mid-week, allowing the weakening frontal boundary to
drop closer to Florida. High rain chances return as moisture
surges across the area, and there is potential for a low pressure
system to develop along this boundary, causing winds and seas to
deteriorate. Mainly southerly winds backing to the southeast to
east in the afternoon with the sea breeze today and Sunday become
more southwesterly, backing to the south to southeast with the sea
breeze Monday onward. Seas 1-3 ft through Tuesday could increase
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Unusually quiet TAFs through this weekend as high pressure
suppresses convection. Light/variable winds over the Greater
Orlando area for much of the period, becoming ESE up to 12 KT at
the coastal airfields Sunday afternoon. Small (<= 30%) chance of
showers/storms for Greater Orlando area terminals returning after
20/21Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 40
MCO 76 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 40
MLB 76 92 76 94 / 0 10 10 30
VRB 74 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20
LEE 77 95 77 94 / 20 20 10 40
SFB 76 97 77 97 / 10 20 10 40
ORL 77 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 40
FPR 74 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Heil
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 192328
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
An upper ridge builds over the region through Sunday then
gradually becomes oriented over the interior eastern states
through Wednesday. A surface ridge oriented across the northern
Gulf promotes a light and predominately southwesterly surface
flow over the forecast area through Sunday. The upper ridge
building into the region will significantly suppress convective
development, and have opted for slight chance pops just over the
coastal counties Sunday afternoon. A weak surface trof moves into
the area on Monday then moves offshore Monday night with a modest
surface low meanwhile developing off the coast of the Carolinas.
The weak surface low slowly progresses into the northeast Gulf
through Wednesday, then becomes associated with an upper level
trof in the easterlies while progressing towards the western Gulf
through Friday. Rain chances trend steadily higher Monday through
Wednesday with this pattern, from slight chance to chance pops
for much of the area on Monday reaching chance to categorical pops
by Wednesday, and similar pops continue for Thursday and Friday as
well then just a bit lower for Saturday. One main concern that
continues through much of the forecast is afternoon heat index
values. For Sunday, heat index values range from 102-107 with a
few spots reaching Heat Advisory criteria of 108+ but not
sufficient coverage for consideration of a Heat Advisory at this
point. Heat index values trend higher for Monday into Tuesday,
with heat index values by Tuesday ranging from 105-112. At this
point, it appears that a Heat Advisory will eventually become
necessary for Monday for southeast Mississippi, extreme
southwestern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. For
Tuesday, a Heat Advisory will likely become necessary for nearly
the entire area (except maybe interior south central Alabama).
It's worth noting that some locations on Tuesday could reach 112
which is near Excessive Heat Warning criteria of 113. A Heat
Advisory could also become necessary for Wednesday as well,
depending on when the convection develops, but for Thursday
through Saturday it appears that convection will hold down high
temperatures sufficiently to keep heat index values below advisory
criteria. A moderate risk of rip currents this afternoon will be
followed by a low risk for tonight and Sunday. A low to moderate
risk follows for Sunday night and Monday night, then a low risk is
expected for Tuesday through Wednesday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
VFR flight category prevails across the region through Sunday
outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that linger through
this evening. Winds remain generally out of the south to southwest
at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow prevails
through Sunday, then becomes westerly to northwesterly Monday into
Tuesday night. A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow
develops Wednesday afternoon and continues into late week. No
impacts are anticipated other than higher winds and seas near
storms. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 93 75 95 76 96 76 94 / 10 20 0 30 10 40 30 70
Pensacola 78 93 78 95 79 96 79 93 / 0 20 0 40 20 50 40 80
Destin 80 93 81 94 81 95 80 93 / 0 10 10 40 30 60 50 80
Evergreen 73 96 74 96 75 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 30 10 40 30 60
Waynesboro 73 96 73 96 75 97 75 96 / 20 10 0 10 10 20 20 50
Camden 74 94 75 95 75 95 75 95 / 20 10 0 20 10 30 20 50
Crestview 73 96 74 96 75 96 75 94 / 0 20 0 50 20 60 40 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 192343
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
743 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Broad upper level ridging extends over Florida and the southeast
U.S. through the weekend. On the surface, high pressure northeast of
the Bahamas ridges westward over Florida. This will keep a
predominant light southeast wind flow over the region through the
weekend. This high pressure will bring in some slightly drier air as
well, which will limit rain and storm coverage through the weekend.
Rain and storm chances today through Sunday will be in the 20-40
percent range. Daytime highs will top out around 90-97 degrees each
afternoon through the weekend, with heat indices well into the
triple digits reaching 110 degrees in some areas. This has warranted
the issuance of a Heat Advisory for much of west central Florida
this afternoon. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed again
for Sunday afternoon.
By Monday morning, the upper high and ridge has shifted westward
near Louisiana, while the surface high shifts westward as well and
will be located over the northeastern gulf. This will bring a shift
in winds to the northwest direction. A slight uptick in rain and
storm chances expected on Monday with 30-60 percent chance region
wide.
By Tuesday morning, the upper ridge has shifted farther
northwestward over the Mississippi River Valley, while the surface
high shifts westward over the northwestern gulf. This will be the
start of a more unsettled weather pattern as an upper low and
surface troughing moves westward across southern Florida and into
the eastern gulf. Rain and storm chances ramp up to around 50-70
percent starting Tuesday afternoon with this wetter pattern
continuing through the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the evening and
overnight hours with light/VRB winds less than 5 kts tonight.
Light southerly winds on Sunday morning will gradually shift
onshore by the afternoon hours tomorrow as the sea breeze pushes
inland with winds around 5-8 kts during the day. The sea breeze
may also allow isolated/scattered TSRA by late afternoon and
evening with the highest rain chances from 20Z-24Z. Thus, brief
flight restrictions may occur if any convection directly impacts
any terminals but VFR conditions will prevail outside of
precipitation activity.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
High pressure moves westward across Florida and into the eastern
gulf waters through the weekend. This will produce light winds 10
knots or less, seas 2 feet or less and lower rain and storm chances
(20-30 percent) over the weekend. An upper low and troughing moves
across Florida and into the eastern gulf next week with higher rain
and storm chances expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Abundant moisture, low rain chances and light winds will continue
through the weekend precluding any fire weather concerns. The only
weather concern over the weekend will be extreme heat. Daytime highs
will reach 90-97 degrees each day, with heat indices reaching the
triple digits to around 110 degrees. Rain chances ramp up Monday and
Tuesday as an upper low and trough move across Florida with a more
wet pattern expected through much of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 94 81 95 81 / 30 10 30 10
FMY 96 77 97 78 / 30 10 20 10
GIF 97 76 97 76 / 30 10 30 10
SRQ 94 77 95 78 / 20 10 20 10
BKV 96 74 96 74 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 92 80 92 81 / 20 10 20 10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 192314
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
714 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
The Heat Advisory in effect today is certainly valid, as temps
ranged from the mid-upper 90s, thus causing heat indices to equate
heat advisory conditions moreso across the southern zones. Have
elected to add Lanier and Berrien GA counties, as dewpoints rose
enough to warrant an advisory. These warm and humid conditions are
courtesy of UA ridging prevailing across the region. The sfc
ridge is a bit displaced to across the northeast Gulf resulting in
srly sfc flow and entrainment of a bit moisture, thus causing the
development of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Any
lingering precip will diminish this evening, with overnight lows
in the mid-upper 70s. If outdoors, take this heat seriously. Be
sure to remain hydrated, wear light-colored clothing and take
frequent breaks in the shade.
Ridging will deepen on Sunday causing another round of hot temps
/mid-upper 90s/. May need to consider another Heat Advisory
especially if the ridging does not result in dewpoints drying out
as intended. Otherwise, chance of precip is even lesser so, with
PoPs forecast of less than 20%.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
An upper level ridge of high pressure will have centered over the
Northern Gulf with the ridge extending from the Four Corners
region in the southwest to the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, the
Bermuda High will be covering the Southeast U.S.. Underneath this
expansive dome of high pressure, temperatures will be hot with
highs in the upper 90s, and a few locations may reach the century
mark. Heat indices look to be around 105-112 with locations along
and south of the I-75 and I-10 corridors meeting criteria for a
Heat Advisory.
During the day Monday, a surface trough (remnants of Invest AL93)
that circled around the high pressure ridge, will come down to
our northeastern counties. This will allow for potential
northerly/northeasterly flow from the mid and upper levels
bringing in some drier air behind the front. However, PWATs will
be around 2 inches, so any storms that develop Monday through
Monday night will have the potential of producing heavy downpours.
Ahead of the front, there is a 40-60 percent chance for showers
and thunderstorms along the I-75 and I-10 corridors Monday
afternoon. The WPC has placed areas east of Tallahassee and the
Flint River in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive
Rainfall due to antecedent wet conditions from the previous week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
For the long term, the aforementioned trough will continue to
push south towards the Gulf. This will gradually increase our
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week. We can
also expect our temperatures to return to the low 90s as we
receive some northerly flow during the week. Showers and
thunderstorms will be diurnally driven with PoPs around 60-80
percent. This is also dependent on how far south the cold front
gets through the region. If the front makes a complete passage,
the PoPs chances may need to be lowered because a drier air mass
will filter in behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Favorable boating conditions will continue into the start of next
week. Southerly winds will become westerly overnight, at about
5-10 kts. With the afternoon seabreezes, winds may gust 15-20 kts
in our nearshore waters through the weekend into next week. Seas
are expected to be tranquil at 1-2 feet through the week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
A high pressure system across the region will lead to decreasing
rain chances through the weekend, with only isolated showers and
thunderstorms occurring today. Rainfall will increase in coverage
early next week. Dispersions will be high along and north of I-10
due to high mixing rates, with west to southwest transport winds
of 10-15 mph. Hot temperatures will prevail throughout the period
with daytime temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
The remainder of this weekend will be mostly dry as high pressure
builds over the CWA, reducing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms. By Monday, a trough will extend south towards the
region, increasing moisture content. Rain chances improve through
the week, and the WPC includes our region in Marginal (level 1 of
4) risks through mid week. Overall, about 1-2 inches of rain is
expected through the forecast period. Yet due to the previous
rains we've had, some locations may be susceptible to flash
flooding with the heavy downpours. Our rivers are in good
condition, so riverine flooding is not expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 98 78 96 / 0 10 0 60
Panama City 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 10 50
Dothan 74 96 76 97 / 0 10 10 40
Albany 76 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 40
Valdosta 75 99 78 98 / 10 10 10 50
Cross City 74 97 76 95 / 0 10 0 50
Apalachicola 78 91 79 92 / 0 10 0 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Bowser
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery
FXUS62 KTAE 192347
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
747 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes
were made.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
The Heat Advisory in effect today is certainly valid, as temps
ranged from the mid-upper 90s, thus causing heat indices to equate
heat advisory conditions moreso across the southern zones. Have
elected to add Lanier and Berrien GA counties, as dewpoints rose
enough to warrant an advisory. These warm and humid conditions are
courtesy of UA ridging prevailing across the region. The sfc
ridge is a bit displaced to across the northeast Gulf resulting in
srly sfc flow and entrainment of a bit moisture, thus causing the
development of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Any
lingering precip will diminish this evening, with overnight lows
in the mid-upper 70s. If outdoors, take this heat seriously. Be
sure to remain hydrated, wear light-colored clothing and take
frequent breaks in the shade.
Ridging will deepen on Sunday causing another round of hot temps
/mid-upper 90s/. May need to consider another Heat Advisory
especially if the ridging does not result in dewpoints drying out
as intended. Otherwise, chance of precip is even lesser so, with
PoPs forecast of less than 20%.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
An upper level ridge of high pressure will have centered over the
Northern Gulf with the ridge extending from the Four Corners
region in the southwest to the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, the
Bermuda High will be covering the Southeast U.S.. Underneath this
expansive dome of high pressure, temperatures will be hot with
highs in the upper 90s, and a few locations may reach the century
mark. Heat indices look to be around 105-112 with locations along
and south of the I-75 and I-10 corridors meeting criteria for a
Heat Advisory.
During the day Monday, a surface trough (remnants of Invest AL93)
that circled around the high pressure ridge, will come down to
our northeastern counties. This will allow for potential
northerly/northeasterly flow from the mid and upper levels
bringing in some drier air behind the front. However, PWATs will
be around 2 inches, so any storms that develop Monday through
Monday night will have the potential of producing heavy downpours.
Ahead of the front, there is a 40-60 percent chance for showers
and thunderstorms along the I-75 and I-10 corridors Monday
afternoon. The WPC has placed areas east of Tallahassee and the
Flint River in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive
Rainfall due to antecedent wet conditions from the previous week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
For the long term, the aforementioned trough will continue to
push south towards the Gulf. This will gradually increase our
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week. We can
also expect our temperatures to return to the low 90s as we
receive some northerly flow during the week. Showers and
thunderstorms will be diurnally driven with PoPs around 60-80
percent. This is also dependent on how far south the cold front
gets through the region. If the front makes a complete passage,
the PoPs chances may need to be lowered because a drier air mass
will filter in behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Favorable boating conditions will continue into the start of next
week. Southerly winds will become westerly overnight, at about
5-10 kts. With the afternoon seabreezes, winds may gust 15-20 kts
in our nearshore waters through the weekend into next week. Seas
are expected to be tranquil at 1-2 feet through the week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
A high pressure system across the region will lead to decreasing
rain chances through the weekend, with only isolated showers and
thunderstorms occurring today. Rainfall will increase in coverage
early next week. Dispersions will be high along and north of I-10
due to high mixing rates, with west to southwest transport winds
of 10-15 mph. Hot temperatures will prevail throughout the period
with daytime temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
The remainder of this weekend will be mostly dry as high pressure
builds over the CWA, reducing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms. By Monday, a trough will extend south towards the
region, increasing moisture content. Rain chances improve through
the week, and the WPC includes our region in Marginal (level 1 of
4) risks through mid week. Overall, about 1-2 inches of rain is
expected through the forecast period. Yet due to the previous
rains we've had, some locations may be susceptible to flash
flooding with the heavy downpours. Our rivers are in good
condition, so riverine flooding is not expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 98 78 96 / 0 10 0 60
Panama City 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 10 50
Dothan 74 96 76 97 / 0 10 10 40
Albany 76 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 40
Valdosta 75 99 78 98 / 10 10 10 50
Cross City 74 97 76 95 / 0 10 0 50
Apalachicola 78 91 79 92 / 0 10 0 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Bowser
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 192310
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
710 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
The deep-layered high pressure will be situated over the Florida
Peninsula for the weekend, along with a batch of drier air being
filtered into the low to mid levels of the local atmosphere. PWATs
will be as low as 1.2-1.3" and no higher than 1.6-1.7" which are
both below climatological norms. Add in the subsidence provided by
the high pressure, and we have a primarily dry forecast on the
horizon this weekend. PoPs along the east coast are nearly non-
existent at below 10% both today and Sunday, while the Gulf coast
and interior are at a max of 10-20% on Saturday and 20-30% on
Sunday. Therefore, no noteworthy impacts are expected as it relates
to convection this weekend other than the chance for an isolated
thunderstorm for the Gulf side to produce some gustier winds, but
likely not to severe levels.
Since the weather will be largely quiet this weekend, the main focus
will stay on the hotter temperatures produced by less significant
cloud cover and subsidence under the ridge. High temperatures both
days are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for the east coast
metro and mid to upper 90s for the Gulf coast and interior sections
of South Florida. Heat indices are still expected to reach triple
digits across the entire region, but during the day there is an
expectation that some of that drier air aloft mixes down to the
surface, which in return can lower dew points by a few degrees and
thus the heat index. Additionally, winds are expected to be more due
east the next couple days, resulting in a slightly cooler breeze off
the Atlantic working inland. Therefore, the best potential for heat
indices reaching advisory will criteria will be for the Gulf coast
region and western interior locations, but the drier air mixing down
is believed to be enough to prevent the issuance of a Heat Advisory
today. A short-fused advisory could still be possible for today, but
that is not expected at this time. For Sunday, it is unlikely at the
moment that an advisory would be needed then as well since the
center of the deep-layer high pressure will be shifting into the
Gulf and we will see a slight shift to a NE flow in the low to mid
levels.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
For the early to middle portion of next week, there continue to be
indications that a surface low resultant from lee-side cyclogenesis
near the Mid-Atlantic will advect SW across the north and central
parts of Florida as well as a broad area of low pressure advecting
westward towards the Peninsula from the western Atlantic just
northeast of the Bahamas. Overall, details on the evolution of these
features are still uncertain, but they will likely cause a
disruption in the general easterly flow pattern and result in more
widespread convection. However, at this current time the expectation
is that while rain chances increase area-wide next week as the drier
air filters out of the area and these disturbances start to have an
impact on the local weather, the general pattern will still fit a
more typical summertime pattern under a low level easterly flow.
This means that the Gulf coast and interior are expected to see
higher rain chances in the likely to numerous category while the
east coast and metro areas see lower rain chances in the chance to
likely categories. Temperatures will still remain hot, but likely
trending a few degrees cooler in the early to middle portion of next
week as rain chances begin to increase again.
The end of the week next week has the potential to be drier again as
the disturbance is likely to shift into the Gulf and brief ridging
rebuilding once again, but the region could still be on the
periphery of the low pressure area, thus rain chances don't differ
much from the mid-week period currently.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
VFR will prevail through the TAF. The only exception would be at
APF should a shower impact the terminal over the next hour or
two. Easterly flow will prevail at all terminals except in the
late afternoons at APF where the seabreeze will turn winds
onshore. Only mentionable rain chances tomorrow are included at
APF in the late afternoon. While some east coast showers may be
present in the morning, the probability is too low to include at
any terminal at this point.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Fairly benign conditions continue the next several days across the
local waters. A gentle easterly flow is expected across the Atlantic
waters as strong high pressure situates itself directly over the
area. A more light and variable flow is expected for the Gulf
waters. Seas are expected to be 2 feet or less for all local waters.
Drier conditions are expected for the next several days as well
under the high pressure, but a few isolated showers are still
possible at times, mainly for the Gulf waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 80 92 79 92 / 0 20 0 20
West Kendall 77 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 20
Opa-Locka 80 94 79 94 / 0 20 0 20
Homestead 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 80 90 79 91 / 0 10 0 10
N Ft Lauderdale 80 91 79 92 / 0 10 0 10
Pembroke Pines 82 95 81 95 / 0 10 0 10
West Palm Beach 79 92 77 93 / 0 10 0 10
Boca Raton 79 92 78 93 / 0 10 0 10
Naples 78 94 78 93 / 20 30 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Harrigan
