fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 180525
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1225 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Patchy inland fog this morning. Localized dense fog along
highway 301 corridor from Gainesville area to Hilliard, west of
Jacksonville.
- More Widespread Dense Fog Event possible Wednesday morning,
mainly across NE FL.
- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with
outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley
- A Low-End Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Calm conditions exist behind yesterday morning's frontal passage.
Not a significantly dry airmass and there is enough near-ground
moisture in place to allow patchy to areas of fog to develop, mainly
across NE FL this morning. Some patches may become dense at times,
especially around sunrise. Fog that forms should lift quickly this
morning.
Surface ridging moving off the Mid Atlantic coast today will direct
flow onshore today. Within that onshore flow, a weak inverted trough
will develop and potentially provide enough convergence to trigger a
few showers, which should stay offshore and over the waters for the
most part with only stratocumulus being pushed inland.
Tonight, a bit of moistening under the influence of another area of
high pressure consolidating over the northern Gulf coast. The
combination of the moistening and calm conditions will lead to
another potential fog event Wednesday morning with a broadened
concern area for dense fog development. Dirty ridging moving in from
the west will stream cirrus in overhead which may limit fog extent.
Comfortable temperatures today after a cool start in mid 40s to low
50s this morning, inland temperatures will rise to the low 80s (only
a few degrees off from daily records - see CLIMATE section for
details). At the coast the onshore flow will lead to cooler
conditions with highs in the mid/upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Dry weather conditions will continue after midweek as high
pressure over the forecast area shifts further towards the east
and allowing for more humid air to settle in over the region.
Potential for overnight and early morning fog developments through
Thursday. Daily high temperatures may potentially challenge record
high levels for the period as max temps rise in the lower to mid
80s. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to
mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to build across
inland southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida along and
north of the I-10 corridor on Saturday as high pressure ridging
over the region moves off to the southeast into the Atlantic and
instability ahead of an advancing cold front. Dry weather
conditions will return by the end of the weekend and into next
week as dry air following the frontal passage settles in over the
forecast area. Temperatures will experience a slight cooling trend
going into the weekend and into next week, however temps are
expected to remain above the seasonal average throughout the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Less confident in dense fog development at TAF sites this morning
but cannot be entirely ruled out at KGNV and KVQQ. Otherwise, mist
may develop at other area terminals. Winds will favor a northeast
then easterly direction today around 4-9 knots. The onshore flow
will spread scattered VFR stratocumulus clouds and moisture
inland today, setting the stage for a more extensive fog event
during the early morning hours Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be a weak and brief coastal trough over the waters
which may lead to isolated showers off the northeast Florida coast
through the afternoon and evening before lifting away to the
northeast. Otherwise, high pressure will be the dominant weather
feature through the end of the week resulting in light winds and
low seas across the local waters. Over the weekend winds turn
offshore and become breezy as a cold front approaches and passes
Sunday night. High pressure building in behind the front will move
offshore to the northeast early next week setting up onshore flow
and development of a coastal trough.
RIP CURRENTS: A low-end Moderate risk is expected today due to
onshore flow. A Low Risk is anticipated Wednesday through the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air over the forecast area will result in MinRH values in
the lower 30s over inland southeast Georgia today, however low
wind speeds today will keep conditions from reaching elevated fire
danger levels. The mild and variable winds through today will
result in lower mixing heights and poor daytime dispersion values.
MinRH values will gradually rise as the week progresses, however,
poor/fair dispersions and dry weather will persist through Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...
WED 11/19 THU 11/20 FRI 11/21 SAT 11/22
Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1958 86/1988 84/1991 84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 82/1984 86/1988 82/2004 81/1997
Gainesville, FL (GNV) 90/1906 88/1906 86/1973 86/1906
Alma, Georgia (AMG) 82/1942 83/1942 83/2011 83/2011
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 77 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 73 57 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 79 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 78 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 82 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 180505
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1205 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Patchy morning fog and a moderate risk of life-threatening rip
currents are our notable hazards this week.
- Temperatures continue to nudge above normal as high pressure
stays in control.
- Outdoor plans will be greeted with plenty of sunshine. Most
locales will remain rain-free for at least the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
As expected, broad and flat upper-level ridging is making its
way eastward and is now centered over the Gulf. This feature is
bookended by an unusually deep trough over California and the
stout Rex Block over the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The
Rex Block is forecast to weaken as additional energy reinvigorates
the trough over the West, all but ensuring that H5 heights will
continue to build over the Southeast U.S. through the course of
the work week.
A rather classic split-flow jet configuration develops over
the Western and Central U.S. late this week with downstream
confluence over the Ohio Valley. As disturbances are dampened by
the mid-latitude confluent flow to our north, one should
anticipate continued quiet and warm conditions over Florida. A
weak feature passes through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday,
slightly decreasing heights over Florida late in the weekend.
However, ensemble means suggest the ridge will strengthen yet
again early next week. Overall confidence is high through early
next week, lifted by a relatively low spread in the 17/12Z
membership.
A weak front is dissipating over Central Florida tonight. It's
easiest to analyze with the gradual dew point discontinuity over
the peninsula. High pressure over the Appalachians this morning will
push offshore by tonight, its axis stretching westward to Florida
for the latter portion of the week. Modest onshore breezes will
keep a modified mT air mass over much of the state for the
remainder of the week. Another weak front is expected to reach
Florida late Sunday into Monday. Once again, the front is forecast
to dissipate overhead as continental surface high pressure pushes
toward the Eastern Seaboard by Monday, thwarting any change in
air mass.
Since we remain relatively quiet and the holiday season
is approaching, let's peek beyond the 7-day. The 17/12Z
ensembles show two distinct mid-latitude disturbances over the
U.S. for Thanksgiving week. The first signal passes through the
Eastern U.S. around Tuesday the 25th; this feature should be on a
weakening trend, with a majority of members showing little/no
impacts to east central Florida. The second signal approaches the
state sometime around Black Friday; there is a little better
potential for a clean frontal passage with this disturbance.
However, any sort of a cool down behind the Thanksgiving weekend
disturbance looks short-lived: additional Pacific energy is likely
to reach the U.S. West Coast as a ridge emanating from the Antilles
attempts to expand poleward - all consistent with the (expected)
MJO phase 7 analog.
Bottom line: any individual model runs showing a significant,
lasting cold air outbreak over Florida over the next couple of weeks
should be greeted with a dose of skepticism. Extended/weekly
guidance persistently suggests that cold risks will increase by mid-
December; this corresponds with a potential for both MJO phase 8 and
a weak and/or displaced polar vortex in the wake of a stratospheric
warming event.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Remainder of the Work Week...
A bit of lingering moisture from the old front may be just
enough to spark a few showers today through early Wednesday,
primarily along the Treasure Coast. These rain chances are 20% or
less, so most places will remain dry. Status quo weather is then
expected over the coming days as high pressure dominates.
Temperatures will remain above normal, particularly in the
afternoons, with many spots reaching the low/mid 80s.
Patchy fog is forecast each overnight and early morning
as winds remain light. There is a low risk for dense fog
development. However, this forecast is tricky as some modestly drier
air sneaks into the boundary layer late today through Wednesday -
near and north of Interstate 4. For this reason, have deviated
slightly lower than statistical guidance for dew points in the
afternoon hours.
Weekend - Next Week...
Winds attempt to turn offshore this weekend as a front approaches
from the north, ensuring continued warm 80s each afternoon (perhaps
upper 70s behind the sea breeze at the coast). Patchy morning fog
will remain possible, especially over rural locations. Guidance
pushes the front into Central Florida and dissipates it by
Monday, briefly turning winds northerly before switching back
onshore. Despite the front, statistical guidance keeps us rain-free
with negligible change in temperatures.
Aside from a low potential for some coastal showers today and again
during the middle of next week, the odds of receiving measurable
rain remain quite low through at least Thanksgiving Day. The
front arriving late next week may provide our next "best" chance
for rain - but there are a lot of questions to answer before we
can say that with any confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
High pressure over the Central Appalachians will drift offshore
of Cape Hatteras over the next 24 hours, allowing onshore breezes
enhanced nearshore by the daily sea breeze. The axis of this high
pressure system will extend westward to Florida later this week
before being displaced southward this weekend. Aside from a few
showers through Wednesday, no significant weather is forecast this
week, leading to favorable conditions for nearshore boating.
Nearshore seas 1-3 FT through Wednesday, lessening to 2 FT or less
on Thursday and Friday. Seas offshore will be slightly higher,
3-4 FT, through early Thursday. Afternoon breezes NE to E 5-10 KT,
subtly enhanced at the coast as the sea breeze develops. Winds
turn offshore less than 5 KT overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Weak high pressure will promote a loose pressure gradient over the
area today, continuing mostly dry conditions and light and variable
winds less than 6 knots. There will be a developing ENE sea breeze
that will increase the onshore winds 7-9 knots at coastal terminals
this afternoon.
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast, but patchy fog will develop
early this morning, diminishing by 14Z. Tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities
will occur with any fog, with guidance depicting highest probs for
vis reductions at the fog-prone terminals FPR and VRB with a
secondary max of probs from MLB-TIX-MCO. With high pressure ridge
axis remaining in the vicinity, patchy late night/early morning fog
will be possible at some terminals the rest of this week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Over the next couple of days, seasonably deep mixing (4+ KFT) should
tap into some drier air aloft over northern portions of east central
Florida. Away from the coast and along the I-4 corridor, RH minima
are forecast to range from 35-45% both afternoons today and
Wednesday. Afternoon breezes becoming NE less than 10 mph. Light to
calm winds and excellent RH recovery are forecast each night, so
smoke from any fires will have the potential to mix with patchy fog.
RH values are expected to remain above elevated or critical
thresholds beginning Thursday in all areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 59 79 59 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 81 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 60 79 62 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 79 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 81 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 81 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 80 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 80 60 81 61 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly
FXUS62 KMLB 180507
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Patchy morning fog and a moderate risk of life-threatening rip
currents are our notable hazards this week.
- Temperatures continue to nudge above normal as high pressure
stays in control.
- Outdoor plans will be greeted with plenty of sunshine. Most
locales will remain rain-free for at least the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
As expected, broad and flat upper-level ridging is making its
way eastward and is now centered over the Gulf. This feature is
bookended by an unusually deep trough over California and the
stout Rex Block over the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The
Rex Block is forecast to weaken as additional energy reinvigorates
the trough over the West, all but ensuring that H5 heights will
continue to build over the Southeast U.S. through the course of
the work week.
A rather classic split-flow jet configuration develops over
the Western and Central U.S. late this week with downstream
confluence over the Ohio Valley. As disturbances are dampened by
the mid-latitude confluent flow to our north, one should
anticipate continued quiet and warm conditions over Florida. A
weak feature passes through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday,
slightly decreasing heights over Florida late in the weekend.
However, ensemble means suggest the ridge will strengthen yet
again early next week. Overall confidence is high through early
next week, lifted by a relatively low spread in the 17/12Z
membership.
A weak front is dissipating over Central Florida tonight. It's
easiest to analyze with the gradual dew point discontinuity over
the peninsula. High pressure over the Appalachians this morning will
push offshore by tonight, its axis stretching westward to Florida
for the latter portion of the week. Modest onshore breezes will
keep a modified mT air mass over much of the state for the
remainder of the week. Another weak front is expected to reach
Florida late Sunday into Monday. Once again, the front is forecast
to dissipate overhead as continental surface high pressure pushes
toward the Eastern Seaboard by Monday, thwarting any change in
air mass.
Since we remain relatively quiet and the holiday season
is approaching, let's peek beyond the 7-day. The 17/12Z
ensembles show two distinct mid-latitude disturbances over the
U.S. for Thanksgiving week. The first signal passes through the
Eastern U.S. around Tuesday the 25th; this feature should be on a
weakening trend, with a majority of members showing little/no
impacts to east central Florida. The second signal approaches the
state sometime around Black Friday; there is a little better
potential for a clean frontal passage with this disturbance.
However, any sort of a cool down behind the Thanksgiving weekend
disturbance looks short-lived: additional Pacific energy is likely
to reach the U.S. West Coast as a ridge emanating from the Antilles
attempts to expand poleward - all consistent with the (expected)
MJO phase 7 analog.
Bottom line: any individual model runs showing a significant,
lasting cold air outbreak over Florida over the next couple of weeks
should be greeted with a dose of skepticism. Extended/weekly
guidance persistently suggests that cold risks will increase by mid-
December; this corresponds with a potential for both MJO phase 8 and
a weak and/or displaced polar vortex in the wake of a stratospheric
warming event.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Remainder of the Work Week...
A bit of lingering moisture from the old front may be just
enough to spark a few showers today through early Wednesday,
primarily along the Treasure Coast. These rain chances are 20% or
less, so most places will remain dry. Status quo weather is then
expected over the coming days as high pressure dominates.
Temperatures will remain above normal, particularly in the
afternoons, with many spots reaching the low/mid 80s.
Patchy fog is forecast each overnight and early morning
as winds remain light. There is a low risk for dense fog
development. However, this forecast is tricky as some modestly drier
air sneaks into the boundary layer late today through Wednesday -
near and north of Interstate 4. For this reason, have deviated
slightly lower than statistical guidance for dew points in the
afternoon hours.
Weekend - Next Week...
Winds attempt to turn offshore this weekend as a front approaches
from the north, ensuring continued warm 80s each afternoon (perhaps
upper 70s behind the sea breeze at the coast). Patchy morning fog
will remain possible, especially over rural locations. Guidance
pushes the front into Central Florida and dissipates it by
Monday, briefly turning winds northerly before switching back
onshore. Despite the front, statistical guidance keeps us rain-free
with negligible change in temperatures.
Aside from a low potential for some coastal showers today and again
during the middle of next week, the odds of receiving measurable
rain remain quite low through at least Thanksgiving Day. The
front arriving late next week may provide our next "best" chance
for rain - but there are a lot of questions to answer before we
can say that with any confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
High pressure over the Central Appalachians will drift offshore
of Cape Hatteras over the next 24 hours, allowing onshore breezes
enhanced nearshore by the daily sea breeze. The axis of this high
pressure system will extend westward to Florida later this week
before being displaced southward this weekend. Aside from a few
showers through Wednesday, no significant weather is forecast this
week, leading to favorable conditions for nearshore boating.
Nearshore seas 1-3 FT through Wednesday, lessening to 2 FT or less
on Thursday and Friday. Seas offshore will be slightly higher,
3-4 FT, through early Thursday. Afternoon breezes NE to E 5-10 KT,
subtly enhanced at the coast as the sea breeze develops. Winds
turn offshore less than 5 KT overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Weak high pressure will promote a loose pressure gradient over the
area today, continuing mostly dry conditions and light and variable
winds less than 6 knots. There will be a developing ENE sea breeze
that will increase the onshore winds 7-9 knots at coastal terminals
this afternoon.
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast, but patchy fog will develop
early this morning, diminishing by 14Z. Tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities
will occur with any fog, with guidance depicting highest probs for
vis reductions at the fog-prone terminals FPR and VRB with a
secondary max of probs from MLB-TIX-MCO. With high pressure ridge
axis remaining in the vicinity, patchy late night/early morning fog
will be possible at some terminals the rest of this week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Over the next couple of days, seasonably deep mixing (4+ KFT) should
tap into some drier air aloft over northern portions of east central
Florida. Away from the coast and along the I-4 corridor, RH minima
are forecast to range from 35-45% both afternoons today and
Wednesday. Afternoon breezes becoming NE less than 10 mph. Light to
calm winds and excellent RH recovery are forecast each night, so
smoke from any fires will have the potential to mix with patchy fog.
RH values are expected to remain above elevated or critical
thresholds beginning Thursday in all areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 59 80 58 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 82 60 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 62 80 63 / 10 0 10 0
VRB 81 62 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
LEE 81 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 81 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 81 61 82 63 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 180708
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
108 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Patchy dense fog will be possible across southeastern
Mississippi into Coastal Alabama this morning. Patchy dense
fog will be possible each morning this week.
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
until the rain arrives.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Looking at observations and satellite imagery this morning gives
signs of some potential fog develop across southeastern
Mississippi and into coastal Alabama this morning. This areas is
mainly along and west of a backdoor cold front that marks a zone
between low to mid 60s dewpoints to the west and significantly
drier air to the east with dewpoints in the 30s. Fog should
develop across the moisture rich area where 60s dewpoints are
present and that seems to have already begun. Given the trends and
guidance this morning, we have opted to issue a dense fog advisory
for parts of southeastern Mississippi and Mobile county.
Fog will likely lift fairly early this morning as the sun will
allow for quick vertical mixing. There should be plenty of sun to
go around as high pressure begins to build over the deep south and
slowly drift eastward through Midweek. This will be in response to
a rather large and lumbering upper trough digging into the Four
Corners region of the US.This will continue our rather dry and
toasty period as highs continue to hover in the upper 70s to low
80s. Lows will also steadily climb with time as moisture gradually
increases with the slowly approaching trough by Friday. With
increasing moisture and lows, the expectation would be for
increased chances of fog and dense fog across the area this week
and more dense fog advisories may be needed in the coming days.
Things become rather complicated after Friday and through the
weekend as the series of shortwaves embedded within this larger
western US trough begin to eject eastward. Guidance is fairly
locked in on the evolution of the lead shortwave that is expected
to move into the Ohio river valley on Saturday. This will likely
bring a quick shot of rain to areas mainly west of I-65 and along
the highway 84 corridor. Unfortunately this system looks to be
strung out and rather displaced to give us any appreciable rain
and most of the area will likely only see scattered showers and
storms on Saturday. The next system seems to be the trickier of
the two as a cutoff upper low is expected to eject across the
central US sometime early next week. Guidance is on board with the
idea of this system but overall timing and position of the low is
all over the place and overall a rather low confidence forecast.
As a result, we will continue to monitor the rain chances early
next week as it at least looks possible someday before
Thanksgiving could receive some rain.
Lastly with the increasing active pattern for the area,
rip currents will gradually pickup Friday and into the weekend
with MODERATE risk of rip currents. BB-8
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Localized lowered VSBYs and CIGs have begun to develop across
southeastern Mississippi into coastal Alabama along and south of
I-10 as low ceilings and fog has begun to develop. LIFR to VLIFR
could be possible through sunrise before the fog lifts out. VFR
conditions will return by mid-mornining and persist til midnight
tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the south. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Light southeasterly flow will develop today and persist into
Wednesday. A moderate southerly flow develops on Friday ahead of
an approaching front. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 60 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 78 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 63 77 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 56 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 58 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 58 83 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 55 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ261-263-
265.
FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ075-076-
078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 180605
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
105 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog expected to develop late each evening, lifting out by
shortly after sunrise.
- Sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue through
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Currently at the surface, broad high pressure is sprawled across
the Mid-Atlantic states and southeastern US, setting up light
easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula. As this surface high
pressure rotates southeast into the Atlantic through the rest of
the week, the ridge axis will settle in across the Florida
Peninsula. This pattern will keep rain free conditions and sunny
skies in place, with temperatures and surface humidity continuing
to gradually increase through the remainder of the week. The main
concern apart from the warm temperatures will be fog, which is
forecast to develop late each night before lifting out shortly
after sunrise, mainly over the Nature Coast counties and across
the interior.
During the weekend, an upper level trough will swing through the
southeastern US, pulling a cold front into northern Florida.
Temperatures and dew points will increase even further on Friday
and Saturday ahead of this front before the front weakly pushes
through the area on Sunday. While temperatures will not drop
significantly behind the front this far south, dew points will
moderate slightly by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Patchy fog will threaten area terminals through around 13-14z this
morning before lifting out. Rain free and VFR conditions will then
hold through the rest of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
High pressure north of the waters will settle south through the next
couple of days and ridge across Florida and into the northeastern
Gulf during the middle and later half of the week. Easterly flow
will turn onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze, with wind
speeds remaining less than headline criteria. Otherwise, rain
chances will remain near zero through the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Relative humidity is not expected to drop to critically low levels
this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 84 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 85 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 84 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 82 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 83 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Fleming
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 180708
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
208 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Elevated fire weather concerns due to low afternoon humidity
and ongoing drought expected across our Alabama and Georgia
counties. Use caution with outdoor flames and follow local
officials regarding any burn bans.
- No significant rainfall expected through the remainder of the
week. Drought conditions will continue and/or get worse across
the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Surface high pressure and quiet conditions will again prevail this
afternoon and into tonight with light easterly flow. Main
forecast concerns will revolve around another afternoon of low
humidities, especially across our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Given recent drought conditions this will bring another afternoon
of elevated fire weather concerns. However, light winds will
preclude more significant fire concerns from developing. High
temperatures in the low 80s are forecast.
Given high pressure in place, light winds, and low-level moisture
slowly returning, patchy fog is again possible tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Warm, above-average temperatures will continue into the weekend
with low-level moisture slowly increasing. Main weather concerns
will be continued drought conditions and areas of fog in the
overnight hours. Our next frontal system moves through this
upcoming weekend, but model guidance has trended lower and lower
with potential rainfall amounts. Unfortunately, this will mean
little to no relief of the expansive drought conditions in place
across the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Mostly clear skies will make for continued VFR conds this fcst
package. The only minor exception is the potential for vsby
restrictions invof ECP over the next few hrs where the nearby KPAM
was reporting FG at the time of TAF issuance. Light to calm winds
overnight increase out of the east around 5 kts after sunrise then
gradually veer to southerly in the aftn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Light and gentle breezes will prevail through Wednesday, as high
pressure settles over the waters. As the high center moves east
and a low center approaches the Mississippi Valley on Thursday,
southeasterly and southerly winds will start to increase. Only
forecast concerns will be the possibility of near-shore marine
fog later in the week as southerly flow returns. The probabilities
would be highest across the Apalachee Bay where cooler shelf
waters could make fog development easier.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Another afternoon of low afternoon humidities is forecast across the
area, the lowest will again be across our Alabama and Georgia
counties. Relative humidity should bottom out around 20-25% in these
areas with higher humidities expected across the Panhandle and Big
Bend counties. Surface high pressure and stable light easterly flow
will lead to low dispersions across much of the area, especially in
the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. Surface high pressure
will remain east of the area through the remainder of the week
leading to slowly increasing afternoon humidities each afternoon.
While this should lower fire concerns some, it will increase the
chance for fog in the overnight periods. Some increase in rain
chances are possible over the weekend but the probabilities for
wetting rains will remain low.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Rainfall through Sunday is expected to be near zero, drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area.
Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 79 52 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 77 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 79 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 78 50 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 79 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 81 50 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 72 57 73 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 180535
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Mainly dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place
across South Florida through the work-week.
- Patchy fog is possible early this morning over interior
portions of South FL.
- Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South
Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid
level ridging strengthens over the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Zonal flow remains established over South Florida early this morning
as surface high pressure remains across the Southeast CONUS. A
weakening frontal boundary is draped across the area leading to very
light surface wind flow. As this weak boundary continues to
dissipate over the area, surface flow will increase out of the
northeast this afternoon while an upper level ridge becomes
established over the Gulf through mid-week. With an abundance of dry
air in place throughout most of the atmospheric column, (PWAT values
hovering between 0.7 and 0.9 inches), the sensible weather across
South Florida will remain dry and pleasant throughout the next two
days...and likely even into next week. Overall, high pressure and
dry air dominate the weather regime making way for many sunny days
this week, leaving me with not much to discuss.
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow.
Some parts of interior South Florida may reach the upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Fairly benign and quiet weather prevails through the long term
forecast period. Mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf by late
Wednesday which should keep South Florida firmly in an east-
northeast regime for the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. With an
abundance of dry air remaining in place across the mid to upper
levels, mainly dry conditions will prevail through the remainder
of the week. A few short lived showers may be possible near the
east coast regions, however POPs remain less than 10%. As the mid
level ridge strengthens across the Gulf region, easterly to
northeasterly surface flow will increase as the pressure gradient
tightens leading to breezy conditions over the local Atlantic
waters and along the southeast coastline.
Through the end of the week and first half of the weekend, high
pressure remains in control of the sensible weather across South
Florida with PWATs remaining around 1 inch or less. This should
continue to support dry and mainly sunny conditions through at least
the first half of the weekend. Our next frontal boundary could
approach the area on Sunday leading to wind shift from the south-
southwest. Latest guidance is not too excited with this boundary as
it will be weakening on final approach, although moisture will begin
increasing with PWATs potentially breaching 1.2-1.3 inches. This
would take us back to just about average moisture for November
which really isn't anything to get excited over. While this
frontal passage is still about a week out and will be monitored,
at this time it appears mainly dry and mainly sunny conditions
will continue to prevail through the late weekend-early next week
timeframe as well.
High temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will generally range
from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to
upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
VFR prevails through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
through early morning hours today. Winds become easterly 5-10kts
during the afternoon across the east coast metro and westerly at
APF. Patchy fog possible early this morning but isn't expected to
impact terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze will prevail across local
waters today and tomorrow. Wave heights should remain 3 feet or
less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 83 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 82 68 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 81 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 82 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 84 68 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 82 69 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 83 70 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 84 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...CMF
