fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 132334
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
734 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts: St. Johns
River Basin south of Duval County. Increasing water levels again
mid-week
- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches
- Small Craft Advisory Returns Wednesday Outer Waters
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Forecast on track for mostly clear skies tonight and cooler than
normal overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s
along the Atlantic Coast. The boundary layer cooling tonight over
inland areas will led to fog formation towards morning with
locally dense fog expected around sunrise, lowest vsbys expected
across inland SE GA and along the I-10 and US 301 corridors across
inland NE FL and a small scale dense fog advisory not out of the
question for some locations.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Gorgeous, seasonably warm fall-day across southeast Georgia under
sunny skies and NNW to NNE winds toward the coast. High
temperatures are on track to reach the lower 80s to near 80/upper
70s at the coast as NNE winds kick-in this afternoon. Surface high
pressure centered NNW of the region will continue to dominate
through tonight, with winds decoupling after sunset and mostly
clear skies. With recent rainfall and good radiational cooling
conditions, inland fog is expected after midnight through daybreak
Tuesday, some of which could be locally dense at times. Leaned on
the cooler side of NBM low temperatures guidance with dry air in
place with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s inland to low
60s at the coast, generally near to a few degrees below average at
climate sites.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Dry and warm conditions persist through the week as mid/upper
ridging over the lower Plains gradually shifts eastward towards
the region. A couple of reinforcing dry fronts will pass through
the region for mid-week maintaining the dry airmass (PWATs ~1
inch) over the region. Breezy northeasterly winds develop for mid-
week as surface high pressure ridging wedges down the eastern
seaboard in the wake of the passing front. High pressure then
shifts off the southeast US coast this weekend as a cold front
approaches the area from the west on Sunday. Moisture gradually
returns for the latter half of the week with onshore flow and then
again ahead of the front as the flow shifts to southwesterly.
Next chance for rain will be along the upcoming front on Sunday
although models disagree on coverage.
Temperatures will be around to just above seasonable with highs
in the upper 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s inland. Cool
mornings continue with lows in the low-mid 50s for inland SE GA to
the mid-upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conds prevail at all terminals this evening, then boundary
layer cooling tonight will aid in fog development at the inland
terminals with IFR tempo LIFR conds expected at VQQ in the 07-14Z
time frame and MVFR tempo IFR conds expected at GNV/JAX in the
08-13Z time frame, with lowest vsbys expected around sunrise.
Conds improve back to VFR for all terminals by 14Z onward with
light NE winds and SCT Cu developing for the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Northerly winds prevail over the waters through tonight as seas
continued to subside. Currently have Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlined for the outer waters, and expect seas will subside below
6 ft by 10 pm this evening. Northeast winds increase late Tuesday
into Wednesday as a front moves across the local waters and high
pressure builds northeast of the region through the end of the
week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return for
at least the offshore waters by Wednesday. Elevated winds and seas
continue through Friday with dry weather.
Rip Currents: High risk continues for all local beaches today,
with a brief Moderate risk expected Tuesday before increasing
onshore flow by Wednesday returns High risk to most beaches.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Morning tides peaked in the "minor" category in the St. Johns
River basin south of the Buckman Bridge (Duval-Clay county line)
southward to Satsuma, with coastal high tides in the action to
minor categories south of St. Augustine. After coordination with
Putnam County EM team stating that minor road flooding impacts
were now occurring in Welaka (Sportsman Harbor), we dropped the
Coastal Flood Warning and replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory,
and trimmed down the Advisory along the coast to just southern St.
Johns and Flagler counties for mainly minor tidal flooding
impacts to the ICW.
Looking ahead, looks like a return of lower-end minor tidal
flooding impacts for the northeast Florida coast mid to late week
as onshore flow strengthens once again. The differences noted in
the upcoming northeast wind surge event compared to last week are
significant and not favorable at this time for another significant
coastal flood event. These differences include lower astronomical
tides and weaker onshore flow, despite persistent onshore winds
for several days. Water levels will increase once again within the
St. Johns basin with high confidence of at last minor tidal
flooding with the potential for a return of inundation near
moderate tidal flooding levels (near 2 ft MHHW) south of downtown
JAX late week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 55 85 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 63 80 65 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 59 84 62 80 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 62 81 67 78 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 57 86 60 83 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 58 85 61 82 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-132-
137-138-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 132317
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
717 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues; entering
the ocean is strongly discouraged.
- Boating conditions briefly improve through Tuesday, then
deteriorate again by Wednesday.
- Mostly dry through the week, except Wednesday and Thursday, when
a few showers may develop and move onshore; near to slightly
below normal temperatures are forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...Another (finally) pleasant day across
East Central Florida. Aloft the sharp trough comprised of two mid-
level lows over the eastern seaboard "consolidates" into a single
are of low pressure centered just off the Mid-Atlantic, as the
feature begins to depart into the North Atlantic in response to
strengthening of the ridge over the Central US. At the surface
the low pressure(s) system along the Atlantic seaboard associated
with the trough has become very elongated and messy, and at least
for now has shed the stationary front to our south extending from
the Straits of Florida to the Bahamas. A plume of low-level
moisture associated with the nearest low pressure center has swung
through without much fanfare other than allowing light winds to
shift onshore this afternoon, giving way for drier air to continue
filtering in from the north as weak high pressure builds from the
Gulf. We'll see mostly sunny skies with zero rain chances.
Temperatures a few degrees below normal as afternoon highs top out
in the L-M80s and lows drop down into the L-M60s inland and
M-U60s along the coast.
The continued caveat is poor to hazardous beach conditions, where
a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues despite
surf appearing to look more inviting, and many parts of the beach
remain unsafe due to coastal flood and erosion impacts. Residents
and visitors are encouraged to avoid impacted areas and to stay
out of the water altogether.
Along the Saint Johns River, Astor is forecast to remain in
moderate flood stage through the week. Farther upstream, points at
DeLand, Sanford, and Geneva remain in action stage, and Cocoa may
reach action stage.
Tuesday-Wednesday...The mid-upper level ridge over the Central US
begins to amplify between deep upper troughs and associated mid-
level lows over the western US and western Atlantic, shifting
gradually east in the process. Surface high pressure over the
North Central US/South Central Canada deepens and shifts east
along the with ridge. Locally we remain mainly under the influence
of weak high pressure over the Gulf and Florida, but will see the
pressure gradient tighten a bit Wednesday between the departing
surface low in the western Atlantic and the approaching surface
high, causing northerly winds to tick up a bit from 5-10 mph
Tuesday to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast
Wednesday. Very dry air with PWATs generally less than 1" Tuesday
will make for very pleasant conditions with clear skies and no
rain chances, but on Wednesday a bit of low-level moisture advects
across Florida, which combined with the slight up tick in winds,
could support some low-topped showers (20% chance) and an
increased cu- field. Temperatures remain a bit below normal with
afternoon highs in the L-M80s, maybe upper 70s along the Volusia
coast Tuesday, and overnight lows in the 60s, getting close to the
L70s along the Treasure Coast early Thursday morning.
The risk for rip currents will continue, worsening again from
Wednesday onward as longer period swells arrive at the coast.
Thursday-Sunday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Winds gain more
of an easterly component on Thursday as another push of low-level
moisture arrives during the day. Additionally, a reinforcing cold
front is set to move through during the day. For now, areas closer
to the coast and south of Cape Canaveral have the best chance to
experience more isolated shower activity. Less cloud cover is
anticipated farther inland, allowing temps to climb closer to the
mid 80s. A shower or two may linger along the southern Treasure
Coast Thursday night/early Friday before drier conditions largely
return Friday into the weekend. Model discrepancies become
apparent after the H5 ridge axis moves overhead Friday into
Saturday, with guidance developing a trough over the central
CONUS. The speed and expanse of this trough becomes a bigger
question from Sunday onward. Uncertainty also exists regarding a
mid level impulse over the Florida Keys on Sunday. Drier air over
central Florida should keep deeper moisture focused over south
Florida, but this is just another feature to monitor through the
week.
All in all, expect a lot of dry time with temperatures ranging
from the low/mid 80s each day to the 60s each night. Life-
threatening rip currents will remain at area beaches through at
least late week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Boating conditions have improved in the nearshore Central Florida
Atlantic waters, with seas 3-5 ft, but remain poor in portions of
the Gulf Stream due to lingering 6 ft seas. Seas briefly settle to
3-5 ft across the waters Tuesday with northerly winds 10-15 kts
as we remain under the influence of weak high pressure over the
Gulf extending to the local waters, while a broad low pressure
system off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard finally pushes out to sea.
Reinforcing high pressure builds into the eastern US mid to late
week, preceded by a dry cold front reaching the area late in the
week. Winds could briefly increase to around 20 kts as the
pressure gradient tightens between the reinforcing high and
departing low, particularly on Thursday, but the greatest impact
will be long period swell from the low building seas to 5-9 ft
again Wednesday through late week. Mostly dry conditions, but a
few bands of low- level moisture could support isolated showers
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR/SKC through the overnight hours, with a few CU around 060
Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight become N/NNE
after sunrise and increase to up to 8-12 kts, highest along the
coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 82 66 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 65 85 65 83 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 68 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 20
VRB 67 83 68 83 / 0 10 0 20
LEE 63 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 64 84 65 82 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 65 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 66 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 140016
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
716 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
An upper ridge will build over our region from the west through
midweek. A large upper trough over the western U.S. will shift
eastward the latter half of the week and over the weekend, with an
associated surface low pressure area lifting north across the
northern Plains into south-central Canada. The 12z Run of the GFS
has the axis of this trough crossing over the Mississippi River
Saturday night. The ECMWF timing is starting to become better
align with the GFS, but still lags behind by about 12 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will return for the weekend, with the
highest rain chances (40-50%) likely occurring Saturday night
through noon Sunday, and then taper off from west to east through
Sunday night. At this time, we are anticipating around one-half to
one inch of widespread rainfall with this system.
Until then, it remains a temperature and low afternoon relative
humidity forecast into midweek with dry weather conditions
persisting through Friday night. High temperatures will range from
85-90 degrees (around 6-11 degrees above normal) through Thursday
before cooling slightly into the middle 80s on Friday and the
lower to middle 80s over the weekend due to increasing cloud cover
and rain chances. Low temperatures tonight will be near normal,
with middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the
immediate coast. Lows will trend warmer throughout the week, and
should be 2-7 degrees above normal Wednesday night, and a whopping
12-17 degrees above normal Saturday night (middle to upper 60s
inland and around 70 degrees along the immediate coast) due to a
good fetch of southerly winds.
Beach Forecast: The LOW rip current risk persist through Thursday
night. Increasing low level southeasterly flow across the region
will help increase the rip current risk by the weekend across our
local beaches, with a Moderate risk returning by Friday and
potentially a High risk of rip currents this weekend. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with a light
northerly wind increasing to around 10 knots during the day. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A light offshore flow will prevail through Thursday morning, with
the exception of a brief onshore flow Wednesday afternoon into
early evening associated with the diurnal cycle. A light easterly
to southeasterly flow will return Thursday afternoon, with winds
gradually increasing late in the week along with building seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 58 86 59 86 59 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 86 64 85 64 84 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 65 85 65 84 65 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 54 89 55 90 56 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 54 86 56 86 56 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 54 87 54 87 56 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 53 88 55 87 55 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 140404
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1204 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Surface high pressure will hold over the region today with
continued clear skies. Temperatures will start the day on the cool
side north with temps around sunrise in the mid to upper 50s
across the nature coast...with mid to upper 60s central and south.
However, daytime temperatures will quickly recover with afternoon
highs generally in the upper 80s across the region.
A weak backdoor cold front will move onshore the east coast of
Florida on Wednesday. Although conditions will generally be dry as
the system will have little moisture to work with, can't rule out
a light sprinkle...especially over the interior.
High pressure surface and aloft will build over the region late in
the week with clear skies and daytime highs a few degrees above
climatic normals.
Over the weekend, surface high pressure will move off the mid
Atlantic coast which will cause boundary layer winds to veer to
the east and southeast. This will allow L/L moisture to recover
with dew points climbing into the 60s to around 70. A cold front
will push across north Florida on Sunday and the Florida peninsula
Sunday night with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Surface high pressure will build back over west central and
southwest Florida early next week in the wake of the front with
drier air advecting across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail for the next 24 hours
at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. Winds
will be below cautionary levels today and Wednesday. Tightening
of the gradient Wednesday night and Thursday night may cause a
period of cautionary level winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 67 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 87 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 85 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 132319
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
719 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 713 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
caution in any outdoor burning.
- Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
although current guidance isn't favoring meaningful rainfall
for the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Added some patchy fog across the I-75 corridor in Georgia and
along the Suwannee River in the Florida Big Bend. Also added some
over the Apalachicola National Forest for early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, most of the forecast is on track with minor temperature
tweaks made for Tuesday morning's low, which remain generally in
the low-mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Upper level ridge to our west slowly translates east through the
upcoming week. Across the local area, a weak surface high will
nose into the region and reinforce the dry northeasterly flow
regime currently in place. The sensible weather pattern shouldn't
change much and afternoon highs will again remain in the mid 80s
with overnight lows in the upper 50s. No rain chances expected in
the period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
The ridge continues east into the weekend with warm and dry
conditions forecast to continue. Highs will remain in the mid 80s
and overnight lows will slowly moderate from the upper 50s to the
low 60s by the weekend. Our next shot for higher rain chances
doesn't appear to arrive until Sunday or at the start of next week
as an upper level trough swings through the southern US.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period with a light northerly-northwesterly breeze turning more
northeasterly during the day Tuesday. There is a TEMPO group for
KVLD for some fog and/or low ceilings early Tuesday morning. There
is also that potential in and around KTLH between 10Z and 12Z, but
kept it out with this TAF issuance as it may be more ground fog
like it was this morning and rather transient in nature.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Gentle to moderate northerly winds induced by building surface
high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions over the
next several days. Afternoon seabreeze could bring directional
changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally
remain under 15 knots through the week. Some increase in easterly
flow is likely late in the week which could lead to borderline
cautionary seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next few days
under persistent north-northeasterly winds. Min RHs are forecast
to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each
afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the upcoming
week progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under
surface high pressure.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next week. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 58 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 54 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 54 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 56 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 62 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 132212
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
612 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A complex mid level pattern is shaping up across the eastern portion
of the country as two mid level cut off lows, (one centered over
the Southeast and one over the Northeast), generally phase
together off of the Mid Atlantic Coastline as the day progresses.
Deep mid level troughing will remain over South Florida today
before gradually starting to pull away to the northeast on
Tuesday. At the surface, low pressure off of the Mid Atlantic and
Southeast coastline will not move much today, however, gradual
movement off to the northeast will begin tonight into Tuesday.
The cyclonic flow around the area of low pressure off of the Mid
Atlantic coastline combined with the outer periphery of an area
of high pressure pushing towards the region from the northwest
will help to keep a rather light north to northeasterly wind flow
in place across the region today. This will allow for drier air to
continue to advect into most of South Florida today from the
north, however, there will be a rather sharp lower level moisture
gradient setting up over the southern portion of the region due to
residual moisture near the frontal boundary parked over the
Florida Straits. The latest guidance suite shows this nicely as
PWAT values could fall below 1 inch west of Lake Okeechobee, while
values south and east of Alligator Alley could still range from
1.4 to 1.6 inches this afternoon. While many areas will remain dry
today, some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out over the
southern areas late this afternoon into the evening hours as the
sea breezes develop and interact providing a source of lift. Most
activity will remain low topped due to the abundance of dry air
aloft, however, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out
where sea breeze boundary collisions take place. High
temperatures today will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s
across most areas. The exception to this will be across interior
portions of Southwest Florida, where 90 degrees will be possible.
On Tuesday, high pressure centered off to the northwest will
strengthen as the area of low pressure pulls further away to the
northeast in the Atlantic. The main difference in the weather
pattern on Tuesday will be a gradual increase in the north to
northeasterly wind flow due to a tightening pressure gradient
between the high to the northwest, and the frontal boundary parked
over the Florida Straits. While there will still be an abundance of
dry air across the mid to upper levels, there will be enough lower
level moisture to support an isolated shower or two over the extreme
southeastern areas where higher moisture content will be found
closer to the front. Just like today, any showers will not have much
in the way of vertical development due to the dry air aloft. High
temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from the mid to upper
80s across most areas, however, some locations across interior
southwest Florida could rise to around 90.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Heading into the middle to latter portion of the week, mid level
ridging centered over the Southern Plains will gradually slide
southeastward into the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula during
this time frame. At the same time, mid level troughing will amplify
over the Atlantic which will promote a northwesterly wind flow aloft
over the region. At the surface, low pressure will remain far to the
east in the Atlantic, however, the latest guidance suite remains in
relatively good agreement with sweeping a reinforcing weak frontal
boundary across South Florida sometime between Wednesday night into
Thursday. While this frontal boundary looks to be weak, it will
bring in an additional source of lift along with lower level
moisture advection out ahead of and along the boundary. This
could create a slight increase the chances of shower activity
area wide later on Wednesday through Thursday. With the abundance
of dry air aloft already in place, overall shower coverage should
should remain on the lower end and any showers that do form will
remain rather low topped. This abundance of dry air aloft will
keep thunderstorm chances very limited during this time frame.
High temperatures during the middle to latter portion of next week
will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas.
For the upcoming weekend, the uncertainty rises a little bit as the
latest guidance suite does suggest the weakening frontal boundary
stalls out just to the south of the region over the Florida Straits
as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This would create
a tightening pressure gradient across the region which could create
a breezy northeasterly wind flow during this time frame. With enough
lower level moisture remaining in place, a low end shower chance
will be maintained during this time frame with the front potentially
remaining close by to the south. If this front were to get pushed
further to the south, there would be a potential for drier
conditions, however, the latest forecast takes a blend of the
models and keeps a slight chance of showers in place both on
Saturday and Sunday. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. High temperatures over the weekend will remain in
the mid to upper 80s across most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Light northeasterly flow this evening will become light and
variable overnight with VFR and dry conditions prevailing at all
terminals. Winds will veer more northerly on Tuesday and enhance
with during the afternoon hours. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower or two once again tomorrow afternoon but confidence in
coverage remains too low to include mention of vicinity showers
at any terminal at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Winds will gradually shift and become more north to northeasterly
today into Tuesday while remaining moderate. These north to
northeasterly winds will gradually increase and become occasionally
fresh across the Atlantic waters heading into the middle of the
week. A lingering northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters will
slowly diminish through the early portion of the week. This will
result in seas across the Atlantic waters ranging between 3 to 5
feet through Tuesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally
remain between 1 and 3 feet during this time frame. Isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out today and Tuesday mainly
across the Atlantic waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Due to a lingering northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters, a
high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches
through the middle of the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will
remain in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches
during this time frame.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 73 85 71 85 / 10 10 0 0
West Kendall 72 86 70 85 / 10 10 0 10
Opa-Locka 73 86 71 85 / 0 10 0 10
Homestead 74 84 71 84 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 73 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 74 87 72 87 / 0 0 0 10
West Palm Beach 72 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
Boca Raton 72 86 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 70 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Hadi
