fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 231306
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
906 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Areas of low stratus over inland areas should be dissipating over
the next hour and radar shows only a few showers well offshore
waters and west of Valdosta. Otherwise...subsidence aloft from
weak shortwave ridging resulted in lower temps this morning and
drier air moving in from the west. PWATs are lower than prior day
with analysis show values down to about 1.5-1.6 inches.
For rest of today...a vort lobe over western GA will slowly work
east and southeast today and result in an increased chance of
showers and storms in combination with daytime heating. Other
showers and storms expected to form along sea breezes over
northeast FL while slowly pushing inland during the day. The west
coast sea breeze will be a little more dominant given mean layer
steering flow out of the southwest at about 5-10 kt. Still
continued with about a 20-40 percent chance of showers and storms
for most of northeast FL today as well as coastal southeast GA but
elevated chances around 60 percent continued for inland southeast
GA closer to the vort lobe moving into that area tonight. With less in
the way of clouds today...highs will rise to the mid to upper 80s.
Only minor changes to the POPs for today but main update change
was to increase POPs a bit for this evening and overnight mainly
in southeast GA to account for the vort lobe being a driver of
convection. Anticipate convection to not completely dissipate
until at least 06z while slowly decreasing in intensity...but this
will be monitored for possibly extending later until early
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR prevail. Will continue with VCSH or a VCTS at all terminals
at this time except for SGJ due to low confidence in coverage and
intensity this afternoon. Southerly surface winds around 10 knots
will develop at the terminals after 13Z, with the Atlantic sea
breeze pushing across SGJ towards 16Z, SSI towards 18Z and the
Duval County terminals after 18Z. Surface winds will become east
southeasterly following the sea breeze passage, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots through late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
South-southeast winds near 10-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft expect
today. Little chance of storm activity in the waters today.
Rip Currents: Surf near 2 ft expected today giving an elevated
risk of rip currents at area beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 87 69 86 69 / 60 40 80 40
SSI 82 72 82 72 / 20 10 30 30
JAX 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 30 20
SGJ 84 71 84 71 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 88 68 89 69 / 30 30 50 30
OCF 88 69 89 70 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Shashy/Cordero
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 231357
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
957 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Morning Cape and Tampa soundings indicate a drying of the local
airmass since yesterday with PWAT values of 1.54 to 1.51 inches.
GOES Total Precipitable Water product also indicate PWATs generally
in the 1.5-1.6 inch across central FL this morning. At the mid
levels a short wave north of the Bahamas will lift to the northeast
away from the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Low level southeast
flow will allow the east coast breeze to push inland with higher
coverage along inland sections of the Treasure coast into Osceola
and Okeechobee counties with this afternoon's expected convection.
Will have pops in the 30-40 percent range south and 20-30 percent
range north. Made some slight tweaks to POPs but overall forecast is
on track. More sun this morning will lead to diurnal cumulus and
warmer temps than recent days. Highs will reach the mid 80s coast to
upper 80s interior.
&&
.AVIATION...
A drier airmass overall will lead to lower coverage of afternoon
showers and and isolated storms as the east coast sea breeze moves
westward this afternoon. Expect highest coverage inland from the
Treasure coast and south of KMCO-KISM. May remove TEMPO groups and
have VCSH for nrn interior terminals this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Southeast winds up to 10 knot are expected across the waters today
with seas 2-3 ft near shore and up 3-4 ft offshore. Lower coverage
of showers expected from recent days making for improved boating
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 70 86 71 / 20 10 30 30
MCO 88 72 91 72 / 30 10 50 40
MLB 84 72 85 72 / 20 20 40 40
VRB 84 71 84 72 / 30 30 40 40
LEE 89 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 40
SFB 88 70 91 72 / 30 10 40 30
ORL 88 72 90 72 / 30 10 50 40
FPR 84 70 84 71 / 30 30 50 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Volkmer/Combs
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 231741 AAB
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018
.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.
&&
.UPDATE...Based of the latest forecast information, there is now
a moderate risk of rip currents along the gulf beaches of Alabama
and Northwest Florida through Thursday night. A high risk of rip
currents will be likely starting Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions through 24.18z, with the exception
of MVFR ceilings and visibilties in and around scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will be this afternoon and from mid evening to
midnight. Light and variable winds will become mostly south at 6
to 10 knots this afternoon and early this evening then variable 5
knots or less later this evening, overnight and most of Thursday
morning. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...A weak mid to upper trof
continues over the NW Gulf and eastern Texas combined with a
sharp upper ridge stretching from the FL peninsula to the mid MS
River valley helping to maintain a persistent onshore flow and
continued moisture advection across the north central Gulf states
and forecast area through tonight. With this pattern the best mid
level forcing or lift is noted over coastal and eastern sections
of the forecast area early today shifting inland across the
northern and central sections of the forecast area by afternoon
and early evening, initiated also from an advancing seabreeze
circulation shifting northward over the forecast area by early to
mid afternoon. Latest model soundings continue to show PWATS
generally from 1.6 to 1.7 inches across the forecast area with
good dryness aloft combined with surface based capes ranging from
1500 to 2000 J/KG, thus possibly leading to a few strong
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Lapse rates in the
boundary layer also range from 6.1 to 6.9 C/KM which also support
this reasoning. Gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to
ground lightning and periods of very heavy rain can be expected
with most of the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Due to a saturated ground surface for most areas some
minor flooding will also be possible today and early tonight,
especially in urban settings and locations with poor drainage.
Stay tuned to local media outlets or NOAA weather radio if
threatening weather is approaching your area.
Both day and nighttime temps will continue to be moderated somewhat
due to persistent moisture aloft in the form cloudiness and precip.
Similar to yesterday highs will range from the mid to upper 80s over
eastern and coastal sections of the forecast area and the upper 80s
to around 90 to the west. 32/EE
SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Weak upper trof over
the western and central Gulf of Mexico becomes better defined
through Friday night. Surface low pressure will likely develop at
the base of this trof by early Friday over the southern Gulf of
Mexico and begin to lift slowly north by late Friday night. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to where and when this
surface low develops, and the direction that it ultimately moves.
While models remain different in their solutions, it does appear
that a surface low will develop and drift north or northeast
across the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico, beginning at the end
of the short term period (and continuing into the long term
period). The National Hurricane Center currently has a 50 percent
chance that the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
over the central or eastern Gulf over the next 5 days. If this
happens, it appears that it will be toward the end of the short
term period and into the long term period. In general, for the
short term, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue, especially during the afternoon and evening hours over
land areas with some scattered convection over the near shore
coastal waters during the overnight hours. 12/DS
LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The forecast during the
long term period will depend almost entirely on the timing and
movement of the anticipated Gulf low pressure system. Should this
system materialize as anticipated, a movement to the north
central or northeast Gulf coast looks most likely. The current ECMWF
model run is a little slower in the development and the movement
north of the system than previous runs, but continues to move the
low to the north central/northeast Gulf coast in the late Saturday
into Sunday night timeframe. The GFS model continues to be slower
with development and more toward the west coast of Florida through
Sunday night. Both the ECMWF and GFS linger the low inland over
the southeast US through Tuesday, but in different locations, with
the ECMWF over the lower Mississippi River area while the GFS is
further east over Georgia and Alabama. Both scenarios would
support numerous showers and storms through the long term period
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding over portions of the forecast area. Will continue with
the trend of higher rainfall amounts closer to the coast, where
latest WPC guidance indicates 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with
locally higher amounts will be possible through Tuesday. The
potential for high surf, minor coastal flooding, and even a slight
potential for tornadic storms is there in the long term period as
the expected surface low moves into the area, but it is simply
too far in advance with the uncertainties to give any specifics on
this. We will continue to monitor this developing situation.
12/DS
MARINE...With a persistent upper trof to the west combined with a
sharp ridge to the east a light to moderate onshore flow will
continue over the marine area through early Fri. A better onshore
flow is expected by Fri and will continue through early next week in
response to a developing surface low advancing northward over the
central Gulf. Due to the uncertainty with the track and intensity
of the developing low over the Gulf, higher winds and seas will
be possible compared to the current forecast. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the marine
area both day and night through early Fri followed by better
coverage late Fri through early next week due to the developing
system over the central Gulf. Stay tuned for further updates
throughout the week on this developing pattern over the central
Gulf. 32/EE
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 231758
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this afternoon, with showers and
thunderstorms developing over the next hour or so. Expecting
a sea breeze to develop at the northern coastal terminals
over the next hour or two as well, otherwise E/SE flow
prevails, becoming light overnight.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 926 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Morning sounding shows PWs down to 1.5 inches this morning,
with most of that drier air in place above 500mb. Have
gotten a break in the clouds though with it, and will
therefore expect temperatures to be a couple of degrees
warmer this afternoon, with a little later start to the
shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Continuing
to monitor the trough just south of the Yucatan Channel for
possible development, but still looking at the heavy
rainfall and possible flooding impacts from it regardless of
development or track. Current forecast is on track for today
and have no update planned.
AVIATION...
Light SE winds will turn onshore near the coast, and become
more easterly inland as speeds increase to around 8kts.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this
afternoon generally 20-02z. VFR conditions will generally
prevail, though some MVFR conditions could occur in
thunderstorms.
MARINE...
Generally E/SE flow in place over the waters with winds
remaining below any cautionary levels through the week.
There may be an increase in winds for the weekend as a
result of the potential tropical system, but will continue
to monitor it for both the possible development and the
movement. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
day. Current forecast is on track with all of this and have
no major changes for the update planned.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 74 84 73 85 / 30 70 50 70
FMY 73 86 72 85 / 30 70 50 70
GIF 73 87 71 85 / 20 60 50 70
SRQ 73 85 72 84 / 20 60 50 70
BKV 71 88 71 86 / 20 60 50 70
SPG 74 86 73 86 / 20 60 50 70
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...24/Hubbard
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 231229
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
829 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018
.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Still looks like scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the area this afternoon with the highest
coverage across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. We are
watching with interest an upper level vort max across central
Georgia that flared up slow moving convection overnight, resulting
in very heavy rainfall from near Columbus to west of Macon. The HRRR
forecasts this concentrated area of heavy rainfall to become more
scattered this afternoon, which is typical of a vort max embedded
within a tropical airmass. We'll have to watch the 12z CAMs closely
to see if any of them show any concentrated redevelopment tonight
further south.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [640 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Central U.S. and a trough is
over the Northeast. At the surface a weak low is over the Southeast
today. With abundant low level moisture across the region another
soggy day is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late
this morning. Activity will increase during the afternoon hours. 60
to 80 percent POPs are expected for most areas. Immediate coastal
areas will be a little drier with 20 to 40 percent POPs. Mostly
cloudy skies are expected today with highs in the 80s.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
This wet pattern will continue through the short term. PW values
of 1.5-1.75 inches will be above normal over the next few days
and will see PoPs in the 30-70 percent range during the day and
more limited at night to 20-50 percent with the loss of daytime
heating. The higher rain chances will be further inland. Some
minor flooding is possible in the short term with the heavy
rainfall and over any areas that storms train. High temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low to mid
70s. While the high temperatures are fairly close to normal, lows
are well above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The long term is expected to be wet with the focus on a tropical
disturbance and rainfall amounts. Models are still in disagreement
with the track of a tropical disturbance that is currently in the
Caribbean with guidance spanning the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico as the disturbance moves northward. NHC has given the area
a 50% chance of development in the next five days. Regardless of
if the system does develop though or it's exact track, significant
rainfall amounts are expected with 7 day rainfall totals of 3-7
inches (locally higher amounts possible). Given these amounts,
will need to closely monitor the long term for flooding. PoPs
remain high through the long term (chance and likely categories)
with no dry days in the forecast. Expect highs in the 80s with
lows in the 70s.
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...
IFR CIGs will continue until mid morning. VFR conditions will return
by early afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop by
late morning. Activity will increase in the afternoon hours. Rain
showers will persist overnight tonight in parts of Georgia and
Alabama.
.MARINE...
Initial winds of 10 knots or less will increase for the weekend to
at least around 20 knots as a tropical disturbance currently in
the Caribbean moves northward into the eastern or central Gulf of
Mexico. There is still uncertainty in the track of the disturbance
and if it will develop into to a tropical system and given this,
boaters should monitor the forecast closely. Regardless of
development though, we will remain in a wet pattern over the next
week.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A wet pattern will be in place for the next week. No fire weather
concerns.
.HYDROLOGY...
The wet pattern will continue over the next week with widespread
rainfall totals of 3-7 inches expected with locally higher
amounts. In regards to river flooding, the rivers have been able
to handle the rain so far and only a few sites are in action
stage or forecast to reach action stage. With additional rainfall
over the next week though, this will have to be monitored closely.
Besides the rivers, localized minor flooding will be possible the
next few days with the flash flood risk increasing for this
weekend.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 70 87 71 85 / 50 10 40 20 60
Panama City 82 74 83 74 83 / 50 20 40 30 50
Dothan 85 71 86 70 85 / 70 40 70 50 70
Albany 86 71 86 71 85 / 80 40 60 50 70
Valdosta 86 70 88 70 85 / 60 20 70 50 70
Cross City 86 70 88 70 84 / 40 10 50 40 60
Apalachicola 82 73 84 73 82 / 20 10 20 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 231741
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018
.AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous SHRA are forming over interior and west
coast sections as well as near PBI. A few TSRA may also develop
near the APF area the next few hours. These showers may bring MVFR
conditions or brief IFR if they move over any terminals. Kept MIA
and FLL areas mostly dry but a brief shower cannot be ruled out.
Expect prevailing VFR and ESE winds 8-12 knots outside of showers.
A brief period of dry wx tonight before more showers develop or
move into the area from the southeast Thursday after sunrise.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 73 84 73 82 / 30 30 60 70
Fort Lauderdale 75 84 74 83 / 30 40 60 70
Miami 74 85 74 82 / 20 40 60 70
Naples 72 85 72 84 / 20 70 60 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
AVIATION...22/KS
