fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 180120
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
820 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Near-Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in Southeast GA. Very Low Humidity this Afternoon and Critically Dry Fuels. Be very cautious with outdoor flames check for local burning bans
- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley
- Morning Fog Tuesday & Wednesday
- Locally dense near I-75 Wednesday morning
- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Added areas of fog late tonight west of downtown Jacksonville
into the Gainesville area as high pressure will extend from near
eastern NC overnight and winds become calm away from the coast.
While not expecting potential for a Dense Fog Advisory, localized
dense fog under a mile may form in patches along the highway 301
corridor over inland NE FL before sunrise. Also cooled lows
another degree for tonight as the passing shield of thin high
cirrus from the west should not be enough of a factor and will
exit off the NE FL coast well after which should allow lows to
fall below guidance to 40-45 over inland SE GA, upper 40s over the
Suwannee Valley to near 50 along I-75, low 50s along the SE GA
coast/inland NE FL east of highway 301, and upper 50s to around
60F along the NE FL coast.
Tuesday will be pleasant weatherwise as highs return above normal
into the upper 70s for inland SE GA to the low 80s over inland NE
FL with mid 70s on the coast from onshore easterly light winds
5-10 mph behind a weak seabreeze. A few clouds will move onto the
coast from the Atlantic, but conditions will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
The frontal boundary will stall and weaken tonight just south of
the Interstate 4 corridor as zonal flow aloft develops across the
southeastern states. Our local pressure gradient will loosen
overnight as high pressure builds into the southeastern states,
with winds at inland locations decoupling early this evening.
Mostly thin cirrus will move across our area overnight as flow
aloft becomes more zonal in nature, with these high clouds likely
exiting into the Atlantic waters towards sunrise. The dry air mass
will result in lows ranging from around 40 across inland
southeast GA to around 50 for north central FL. A light onshore
breeze this evening should shift to a light offshore breeze
overnight as weak coastal troughing develops over our near shore
Atlantic waters, with lows remaining in the 50s overnight at
coastal locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Dry weather continues over the region as nearby surface high
pressure shifts off the coast of North Carolina and into the
Atlantic through Wednesday. Low level moisture gradually returns
as winds shift to southerly by mid-week. Main weather concern will
be the potential for overnight and early morning inland fog due
to clear skies and calm winds. Sunny skies and prevailing
subsidence will maintain warmer than seasonable temperatures with
highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
High pressure ridging over the region shifts southeastward on
Friday as a cold front moves into the SE US for the weekend.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the front for the end of the work week
will continue above seasonable to potentially near record highs
and moisture advection. The next chance for rain appears to be
Saturday ahead of the front although uncertainty remains if there
will be enough rainfall to bring any relief to the current
severe/extreme drought over the area. Best chances, although on
the low side, continue to highlight inland SE GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
The 00Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions across the area
through 06Z, but then lower to MVFR fog with restrictions for IFR
fog and LIFR/VLIFR ceilings at JAX, GNV, VQQ thereafter with MVFR
fog developing into CRG and SGJ after 09Z. High pressure to the
north will settle towards the eastern Carolinas overnight and allow
winds to become calm away from the coast with initially scattered
to broken high cirrus clouds exiting to the east southeast after
09Z, helping to promote radiational fog formation.
The fog will persist through 13-14Z at most locations, then lift
with VFR conditions thereafter. Northeasterly winds around 5 knots
will become easterly after 18Z with few clouds around 3.0-4.0 kft
moving from the Atlantic onto the coast as high pressure shifts to
east of the Outer Banks of NC.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
High pressure will build east-southeastward towards the Carolinas
this evening, with this feature wedging down the southeastern
seaboard through Tuesday. Onshore winds will briefly strengthen
this afternoon, followed by high pressure settling directly over
our local waters later tonight and Tuesday, allowing for lighter
onshore winds. Weakening high pressure will then shift offshore of
the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday and will remain in control
of our weather pattern through Saturday before another weakening
cold front enters the southeastern states. This front will likely
cross our local waters on Saturday night or Sunday, with a brief
period of breezy southwest to westerly winds expected this
weekend, with a few showers possible during the frontal passage.
Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail throughout our local waters
during the next several days.
Rip Currents...Breezy northeasterly winds will result in a lower
end moderate risk this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches. A
developing northeasterly ocean swell on Tuesday will create a
lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Lighter winds and
flat surf conditions should yield a low risk at all area beaches
on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Dry air following the frontal passage will settle in over the
region, bringing minRH levels down into the upper teens and 20s
over inland southeast GA and inland portions of northeast FL
north of I-10. Winds will remain mostly mild and variable through
the day, resulting in lower mixing heights and poor daytime
dispersion values. Lower winds will keep the area just above
criteria for elevated fire danger. MinRH values will gradually
rise as the week progresses, however, poor/fair dispersions and
dry weather will persist through Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...
WED 11/19 THU 11/20 FRI 11/21 SAT 11/22
Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1958 86/1988 84/1991 84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 82/1984 86/1988 82/2004 81/1997
Gainesville, FL (GNV) 90/1906 88/1906 86/1973 86/1906
Alma, Georgia (AMG) 82/1942 83/1942 83/2011 83/2011
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 41 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 52 73 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 51 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 49 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 50 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 172330
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
630 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Patchy fog potential persists on most mornings this week. It may
become locally dense, especially in rural areas.
- Other than a low chance for showers along the Treasure Coast on
Tuesday and Wednesday, a long stretch of dry weather is
forecast.
- Temperatures remain generally above normal over the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Current-Tonight...Weak surface front will slide south across the
area today gradually losing its identity during the next 24 hrs as
it dissipates. Winds will become northerly, gradually shifting to
onshore along the coast this afternoon with speeds up to around
10 mph. Mainly dry conditions expected. Highs today in the U70s
along the coast and near 80F to L80s into the interior. May have
to watch, again, for some patchy (locally dense) fog formation
late overnight into early Tue morning. Winds become light/variable
this evening and overnight. Mins will realize the U50s to around
60F across the interior and L60s along the coast.
Modified Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.
Tue-Wed...Early morning fog may plague portions of ECFL the next
couple of mornings due to light winds, clear nights, and just enough
low-level moisture; with highest chances across the I-4 corridor.
Surface high pressure will build southeastward from the mid Atlc
states thru mid-week. With an uptick in moisture there may be some
onshore-moving light rain chances (~20%) through early Wed across
the Treasure Coast and adjacent Atlc waters, but most of ECFL will
remain dry. Expect a mix of clouds/sun and seasonably warm afternoon
temps. Highs each day range from the U70s to L80s. Lows should turn
a bit milder, with M-U50s near and north of Orlando to the L-M60s at
the coast.
Thu-Next Mon...With deep-layer high pressure over the state late
this week and into the weekend, more quiet and warm weather is
forecast once any patchy morning fog burns off. Unseasonably warm
highs reach the U70s to M80s with lows in the U50s to U60s (coast).
A cluster of guidance supports the next cold frontal passage late
Sun or next Mon, but moisture values look unfavorable for notable
rain chances. In fact, the EPS and GEFS members give the majority of
Central Florida only a 10% chance (or less) of 1/2" of rain through
Thanksgiving.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
A weak front will settle across the local waters during the day
losing its identity over the next 24 hours. Modest moisture will
permit for some light rain chances into early Wed. High pressure
builds southeast from the mid Atlc states to off of the FL east
coast. A light onshore flow will persist thru Thu. Seas generally
2-3 ft and occasionally 4 ft in the Gulf Stream. Boating
conditions will remain generally favorable.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 630 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
High pressure will continue mostly dry conditions and light and
variable winds across the area for much of tonight into tomorrow.
However, a developing sea breeze will increase winds out of the
E/NE to 7-9 knots along the coast tomorrow afternoon.
Mainly VFR conditions forecast, with some potential for patchy
fog once again late tonight through early Tuesday morning. Tempo
IFR/MVFR visibilities will occur with any fog, with guidance
hinting at slightly better potential for vis reductions near to
south of a line from KMCO to KTIX. For now have limited mention to
5SM in the TAFs mainly in tempo windows from 10/11-13Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 60 78 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 58 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 172342
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
542 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
until the rain arrives.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Warm and dry conditions prevail through much of the week as a
zonal upper level flow prevails. At the sfc, high pressure will
remain in control with southeasterly to southerly flow bringing
increased moisture to the area. Currently, a warm front is draped
from northwest to southeast across the area separating a warmer
and more moist airmass across southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwest Alabama from the a cooler and much drier airmass to the
northeast. This boundary will lift northward on Tuesday as
southerly flow returns to the area. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the period, likely flirting with a few record
highs by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the area. Lows
will also increase through the period as moisture returns to the
area. Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday as an upper
trough ejects across the plains and weakens as it moves eastward.
While the main dynamics pass well to the north, enough low level
moisture combined with the approaching trough will leads to
isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Dry
and warm conditions return on Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds
across the area. Overnight patchy fog will continue to be an issue
as moisture levels increase.
Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. /13
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Warm and dry conditions prevail through much of the week as a
zonal upper level flow prevails. At the sfc, high pressure will
remain in control with southeasterly to southerly flow bringing
increased moisture to the area. Currently, a warm front is draped
from northwest to southeast across the area separating a warmer
and more moist airmass across southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwest Alabama from the a cooler and much drier airmass to the
northeast. This boundary will lift northward on Tuesday as
southerly flow returns to the area. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the period, likely flirting with a few record
highs by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the area. Lows
will also increase through the period as moisture returns to the
area. Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday as an upper
trough ejects across the plains and weakens as it moves eastward.
While the main dynamics pass well to the north, enough low level
moisture combined with the approaching trough will leads to
isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Dry
and warm conditions return on Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds
across the area. Overnight patchy fog will continue to be an issue
as moisture levels increase.
Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. /13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the region, but we are
expecting patchy to areas of fog development across SE Mississippi
and Coastal Alabama after midnight until 18/15z. Localized VSBY
and GIGs could lower to LIFR to IFR conditions by late tonight
across these areas, including the MOB and BFM terminals. Light and
variable winds will prevail. /22
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Easterly flow today will become southeasterly Tuesday into
Wednesday. A moderate southerly flow develops on Friday ahead of
an approaching front. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 59 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 60 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 60 75 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 49 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 55 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 50 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 49 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 180117
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
817 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of fog possible tonight.
- Sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue into next
week.
- Benign marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
A very diffuse frontal boundary is in place across central FL
this evening but this feature will mostly wash out
overnight. Hi-res guidance continues to hint at the potential of
patchy fog development overnight given light flow and mostly
clear skies other than some thin high level cirrus streaming over
the region, which probably will have little effect in discouraging
fog formation. While it appears that the highest fog chances will
be around SWFL, most areas will at least have some potential but
confidence in overall coverage remains low. Other than the fog
potential, it will be a quiet evening with overnights lows falling
into the low/mid 50s across the Nature Coast and upper 50s to low
60s for the remainder of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Not much changing in the overall pattern over the next 7 days.
High pressure will move through the Mid Atlantic States over the
next couple of days before pushing out into the Atlantic on
Wednesday. However this high pressure will continue to keep ridging
over the area through the weekend.
This will result in a pretty benign weather pattern with sunny
skies each day with lows in the 60's and high in the mid 80's.
Only weather concern will be patchy fog that will develop in the
early morning hours each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Patchy fog may develop overnight across portions of the area so IFR
restrictions or worse could occur at some terminals, though
forecast confidence remains low in overall development at this
time. Regardless, any fog that develops will dissipate around 14Z
Tuesday with VFR conditions in place for the remainder of the day
and E winds at 5-7 kts but winds may shift to the NNW at coastal
sites by the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
High pressure to our north through the week will help to give us
pretty quiet weather. Winds will be out of the north and east
through Thursday around 5 to 10 knot before shifting southeast on
Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
High pressure will keep us under a quiet weather pattern over the
work week with RH dropping down into the low 50's each afternoon.
Our only concern will be patchy fog that will be possible each
afternoon and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 60 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 180211
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
911 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 910 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Elevated fire weather concerns continue this afternoon over
portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia for
critically low relative humidity. Use caution with outdoor
flames and follow local officials regarding any burn bans.
- No significant rainfall expected through the remainder of the
week. Drought conditions will continue and/or get worse across
the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Only some minor tweaks to temperatures tonight to bring in more
MOS guidance for lows. This brought lows down by a couple degrees
in eastern areas, but mostly the same elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Following today's cold frontal passage, a gradual warming trend will
characterize the remainder of the week as ridging establishes over
much of the eastern CONUS. Daytime maximum temperatures for inland
locations will increase to the low-mid 80s by late week, with
nighttime minimum temperatures approaching the upper 50s/low 60s
which are both well above average for this time of year. Minimum
RH values will also gradually increase as surface winds become
more southerly over the next few days. Without elevated winds and
an increasingly moist air mass, fire risk will be limited. Still,
with antecedent drought conditions it is important to exercise
caution with any outdoor flames as fuels remain extremely dry.
The next chance for rain will be early this weekend as a trough
attempts to develop and dip south into our region. Model guidance
for both how amplified this trough will be and how much rain it may
bring has generally trended down over the past day or two. Following
these trends, it appears increasingly unlikely that any significant
rainfall will occur. PoPs Friday night-Saturday morning are
currently limited to about 10-20% for our southernmost counties and
up to 30% for our northernmost counties that are closer to the axis
of greatest forcing. Dry air will quickly filter in following the
trough's passage, and thus drought conditions will continue or be
exasperated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with winds
becoming southerly and remaining light on Tuesday. The chance of fog
at any of the terminals tonight appears too low to mention in the
TAFs at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Light and gentle breezes will prevail through Wednesday, as high
pressure settles over the waters. As the high center moves east
and a low center approaches the Mississippi Valley on Thursday,
southeasterly and southerly winds will start to increase. Only
forecast concerns will be the possibility of near- shore marine
fog later in the week as southerly flow returns. The probabilities
would be highest across the Apalachee Bay where cooler shelf
waters could make fog development easier.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
For much of our Alabama and Georgia counties, the dry air behind
today's cold front will be well established by the time we hit
our maximum temperatures. This will result in elevated fire
concerns due to critically low relative humidities (RH) around
17-23%. Light winds will keep more critical fire weather concerns
from developing. Further south across our Florida counties,
relative humidities will be low as well. Northeast winds around
5 to 8 mph will prevail.
Through the remainder of the week, the flow becomes southeasterly
on Tuesday and then south to southwesterly by Wednesday and
Thursday. This should allow a moderating trend in afternoon RHs,
but this increase in RHs and moisture will allow better overnight
fog potential, especially across our Florida counties. Wetting
rain chances remain very low and the only chance at rain likely
doesn't arrive until late in the upcoming weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Rainfall through Sunday is expected to be near zero, drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area.
Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 79 47 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 78 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 76 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 74 43 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 77 45 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 81 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 73 55 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 172248
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
548 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Mainly dry and seasonable conditions will remain in place
across South Florida through at least the early portion of
this week.
- Patchy fog is possible early Tuesday morning over interior
portions of South FL.
- Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South
Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid
level ridging strengthens over the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Another beautiful day across South FL with plenty of sunshine and
near normal temps. Added patchy fog into the grids for early
Tuesday morning over interior South FL, should be another repeat
of this morning favoring the typical fog prone locations.
Otherwise, no significant changes to the short term or long term
forecasts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Zonal flow remains established over South Florida through the first
couple days of the work-week as surface high pressure remains across
the Southeast CONUS. To the north, a weakening frontal boundary
remains across Northern Florida early this morning and this feature
will slowly try to progress southward through Tuesday. In response,
north-northwest flow will prevail across the area today, shifting
more northerly on Tuesday morning and finally northeasterly by
Tuesday afternoon as this weak boundary dissipates over the area.
With an abundance of dry air in place throughout most of the
atmospheric column, (PWAT values hovering between 0.7 and 0.9
inches), the sensible weather across South Florida will remain dry
and pleasant throughout the first half of the week.
High temperatures will remain right around climatological normals
today with highs in the lower 80s. On Tuesday, most areas should
remain in the lower 80s however portions of interior South Florida
may peak in the mid or even upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
Fairly benign and quiet sensible weather prevails through the long
term forecast period through next Monday. Mid-level ridging builds
across the Gulf by the mid-week timeframe which should keep South
Florida firmly in an easterly regime for the Wednesday-Saturday
timeframe. Slightly increased moisture associated with an ex-frontal
boundary will linger on Wednesday, which could support isolated
shower activity embedded in the easterly flow along the immediate
east coast. With an abundance of dry air remaining in place across
the mid to upper levels, any shower that does develop heading into
the middle of the week will remain low topped and rather short
lived. As the mid level ridge strengthens across the region,
easterly surface flow will increase as the pressure gradient
tightens leading to breezy conditions over the local Atlantic waters
and along the southeast coastline.
Through the end of the week and weekend timeframe, high pressure
remains in control of the sensible weather across South Florida with
PWATs remaining around 1 inch or less. This should continue to
support dry and mainly sunny conditions through the weekend. Towards
the end of the period, the next frontal boundary will be
approaching from the north which is expected to bring the next
pattern change to shake things up. In the meantime, we enjoy the
sunshine and breezy easterly flow (which could very well continue
into NEXT week as well).
With the increasing easterly surface wind flow, temperatures will
slowly start moderating heading into the middle of the week. High
temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will generally range from
the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper
80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Light and variable winds through
early Tuesday morning. Winds become easterly 5-10kts during the
afternoon across the east coast metro and westerly at APF. Patchy
fog early tuesday morning over interior South FL but isn't
expected to impact the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
A gentle northwesterly breeze will prevail across most of the local
waters today. Winds are expected to veer to the north-northeast by
late Tuesday. Wave heights across all local waters will remain 3
feet or less over the next few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 67 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 62 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 66 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 65 82 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 66 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 67 83 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 66 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 66 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 66 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 63 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...CMF
