fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 210223
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
923 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Friday Morning.
Areas Potentially Impacted: Southeast GA, I-95 & U.S.-301
Corridors in Northeast & North Central FL. Additional Rounds
of Morning Fog Likely at Inland Locations this Weekend.
- Near Record Warmth Continues at Inland Locations into Next
Week.
- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Early Next Week. Severe
to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the
Suwannee Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Evening surface analysis depicts slowly weakening high pressure
(1019 millibars) centered along the FL Nature Coast, or just north
of Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary has wedged
southward down the Carolina coast to the Savannah River Valley due
to another high pressure center (1023 millibars) positioned along
the Mid-Atlantic coast and New England. Aloft...stout ridging
extends across the southern Gulf and the FL peninsula. Otherwise, a
potent shortwave trough was becoming negatively tilted as it pivots
across the southern Rockies towards the southern Plains states.
Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates
that a seasonably dry airmass remains entrenched across our region,
with PWATs uniformly around 1 inch. Ridging over the Gulf and FL
peninsula was keeping deep west-northwesterly flow in place across
our region, with thin cirrus traversing inland southeast GA and fair
skies in place elsewhere. Temperatures and dewpoints at 02Z
generally ranged from the upper 50s to the mid 60s across our area.
Fair skies and diminishing winds will allow for temperatures and
dewpoints to fall to the 55-60 range overnight, setting the stage
for fog and low stratus clouds to expand across much of our region
by the predawn and early morning hours on Friday. HRRR and SREF
guidance both favor dense fog development after midnight initially
along the I-95 corridor in southeast GA, with dense fog then
gradually expanding south and southwestward across the rest of
southeast GA and then along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL by the
predawn hours. Dense fog and low stratus ceilings should reach the
U.S. Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central FL. Deep
west-northwesterly flow should advect thin, high altitude cirrus
cloud cover over the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland
southeast GA by the predawn and early morning hours, which may
ultimately limit dense fog and low stratus cloud formation along the
I-75 corridor later tonight. However, patchy to areas of radiation
fog may still develop in these areas during the predawn and early
morning hours given the strongly subsident environment in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure ridge will be over the region Tonight. Dewpoints
over the coastal waters will rise to levels that will be at or above
the water temperature. This setup will lead to fog development after
sunset along the coast, with this fog spreading inland through the
night. Beach front communities could have low visibilities
beginning as early as sunset. Dense fog advisories may become
necessary, especially for coastal counties.
Lows will trend above seasonal averages Tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the area begins to shift away from the FL
peninsula on Friday as a frontal boundary begins to push towards the
southeastern CONUS. The frontal boundary pushes into the area
on Saturday.
Lingering fog along coastal locations will begin to lift and clear
by the mid morning hours on Friday. The persistent southwesterly
flow ahead of the front will continue to bring in moisture from the
and warmer temperatures across the area on Friday. There will be an
increase in cloud cover compared to the past couple of days. Friday
daytime highs will again reach into the low and mid 80s across
inland locations, while upper 70s along the coast as a weak sea
breeze develops during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the
mid to upper 50s across inland locations and the lower 60s along the
coast.
Another night of patchy to areas of fog will be in Friday night as
lingering moisture from the Gulf will allow for some fog to develop
along the I-75 corridor during the early predawn hours on Saturday,
with some locally dense fog. Southwest winds will steadily shift to
be northwesterly during the overnight hours into Sunday. A similar
spread of daytime temperatures compared to Friday with highs in the
lower to mid 80s. With the cold front pushing through, overnight
lows will be cooler across SE GA locations with lows in the mid to
upper 50s and lows in the lower 60s across NE FL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary will clear the area on Sunday. Winds shift to
become northeasterly behind the front. Highs on Sunday will mostly
be in the upper 70s for most locations, with lower 80s along the I-
75 corridor. The northeast to easterly onshore flow will shift to
become southwest-southerly during the start of the next week as high
pressure centered over the Carolinas extends south towards the
southeast CONUS. Guidance is indicating the next frontal boundary to
arrive towards the local area by midweek of the upcoming week as the
high pressure moves off towards the Atlantic sometime on Tuesday.
This front could bring some showers over SE GA and south towards
locations along the I-10 corridor in NE FL Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, fog development will continue to be of concern during the
upcoming week as moisture continues to be brought into the area due
to the southerly flow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Dense fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to overspread SSI,
the Duval County terminals, and SGJ overnight through the predawn
hours on Friday. Confidence in ceiling and visibility impacts at GNV
remains low at this time, and we have thus indicated MVFR conditions
beginning around 09Z. MVFR visibilities at SSI will likely
deteriorate to IFR by 03Z and then LIFR by 05Z. Onset times at the
Duval County terminals and SGJ are less certain, with MVFR
conditions forecast to begin at VQQ after 03Z and at JAX, CRG, and
SGJ after 06Z. LIFR conditions should then prevail at these
terminals by 09Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings will then lift in the
13Z-15Z time frame on Friday morning, with VFR conditions expected
to prevail by 16Z. Light easterly surface winds early this evening
will diminish by midnight, followed by southwesterly winds
developing and increasing to around 5 knots as fog and stratus
ceilings lift towards 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Weakening high pressure will continue to shift slowly east-
southeastward across the Florida peninsula through Saturday. Dense
sea fog is expected to develop overnight across the Georgia waters,
with this fog potentially extending to the near shore waters
adjacent to northeast Florida on Friday morning before dissipating
by early afternoon. A weakening and mostly dry frontal boundary will
then push southward through the Georgia waters on Saturday night,
with this boundary pushing across the northeast FL waters early on
Sunday morning. High pressure will build eastward from the Ozarks on
Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday afternoon, with
breezy onshore winds developing across our local waters from Sunday
afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger cold front may then
push eastward across the southeastern states on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with southerly winds expected to develop ahead of
this front beginning on Tuesday evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Persistent weather pattern of dry, warm temperatures, and
rising afternoon humidity into the upcoming weekend as the
drought continues. Lingering low level moisture from the Gulf
will continue to bring the potential for morning fog, with some
locations with dense fog. Poor afternoon dispersions will also
be in play as minimal surface and transport winds remain Friday
and Saturday.
Breezy southwesterly winds will start to increase with gusts up to
15 mph across southeast GA on Friday afternoon as a weak cold front
slowly approaches from the northwest. Breezy southwesterly winds
will spread across the entire area Saturday as the aforementioned
front pushes into and through the region overnight Saturday into
Sunday. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend
easterly by Monday. Another cold front will pass through the area
during the middle of next week which may offer breezy winds and low
relative humidity in its wake.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures through Saturday, November 22:
Friday, November 21:
KJAX: 84/1991
KGNV: 86/1973
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 82/2004
Saturday, November 22:
KJAX: 84/1973
KGNV: 86/1906
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 81/1997
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG 56 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 60 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 57 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 56 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 56 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 202320
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Patchy fog is forecast Friday and Saturday morning with some
locally dense fog possible
- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents remains at
local area beaches
- Warm and mostly dry weather through the middle of next week,
though a sprinkle or light shower cannot be ruled out Sunday and
early Monday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Model guidance has remained consistent with the expanse of fog
development late tonight into early Friday morning, so decided to
add in areas of fog into the forecast across most of the interior
and along the coast from the Cape northward. Locally dense fog
will be possible, with visibility reductions of 1 mile or less.
Visibility reductions could lead to impacts during the Friday
morning commute, so plan accordingly and ensure you practice
proper fog safety while driving. If encountering reduced
visibilities, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty
of distance between your vehicle and the one in front of you.
Some guidance has hinted at marine fog development, but lower
confidence in that swayed the decision to keep it out of the
forecast for now. Will continue to closely monitor and update the
forecast as needed. Any fog that develops is anticipated to
diminish after sunrise.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Now-Tonight...High pressure continues to provide pleasant,
seasonable conditions across central Florida. A few cumulus
clouds are noted on satellite this afternoon near and west of
Daytona Beach and also across Martin County. Temperatures are
climbing into the low 80s in most spots with a light onshore
breeze developing at the coast. This evening, temps gradually fall
into the 60s, reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s early Friday
morning. With light/calm winds present and recovering relative
humidity, some patchy ground fog (at minimum) is forecast. Models
have been a bit overdone the past couple of days with regard to
fog potential, though LAV guidance is hinting at a little greater
possibility of areawide fog tonight. Keep this in mind before
heading out the door on Friday morning's commute.
Friday-Saturday...Similar conditions are forecast tomorrow and
into the first half of the weekend. High temperatures reach the
low to mid 80s from the coast to the interior with overnight lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few more cirrus clouds are
expected Friday, due to slightly more moisture above 300mb. A
light and variable wind Friday turns onshore in the afternoon, and
then veers westerly on Saturday. Patchy fog is possible Saturday
morning, particularly over the interior.
Sunday-Thursday...Upper ridging breaks down into Sunday as a
weak cold front approaches central Florida. A wind shift to the
north is forecast through the morning, eventually veering
northeasterly in the afternoon and evening. Very light precip is
indicated by a few models Sunday into Monday as the sfc-800mb
layer moistens a bit. For now, this forecast includes a slight
chance of sprinkles as the front slowly moves south across the
area; however, mentionable accumulation was kept out of the
forecast. Monday may end up a couple degrees cooler (upper 70s to
low 80s) but the impact of this front looks to remain minimal.
Temperatures warm again Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow
gradually veers out of the south and the H5 ridge axis moves
overhead. Our next notable cold front arrives later in the week,
perhaps around Thanksgiving Day, but uncertainty remains to the
timing/speed of the front's approach. For now, the holiday looks
to bring near normal temperatures (slightly cooler north of I-4)
with increasing clouds and a low chance for sprinkles/light
showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Favorable marine conditions are forecast into the weekend as weak high
pressure remains in place. Light and variable winds turn onshore
Friday afternoon, gradually veering westerly by Saturday (less
than 10 kt). On Sunday, a weakened front arrives and gradually
pushes south across the waters. Winds veer N/NE Sunday and E/NE
Monday (8-12 kt). Seas 1-2 ft through Sunday morning, then 2-4 ft
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
VFR conditions continue across all east central Florida terminals
this evening, with deteriorating conditions anticipated late
tonight into early Friday as fog develops. VIS reductions to IFR
are forecast at all interior terminals and along the coast from
MLB northward, with LIFR reductions forecast at DAB. Less
confidence in fog development along the Treasure Coast terminals,
but still decided to add in MVFR reductions at VRB and FPR based
on latest guidance. TEMPOs at all these terminals are in place
between 09-13Z. Visibility is anticipated to improve after
sunrise, with a return of VFR conditions areawide along with light
and variable winds. Dry conditions prevail across east central
Florida.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 59 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 59 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 202348
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Fog continues to be the main concern with another round of
dense fog late tonight into Friday morning.
- Scattered showers and storms on Friday may lead to minor
flooding concerns for areas generally along and north of the
Highway 84 corridor in southwest Alabama (increasing signals in
the guidance, but low confidence right now).
- Moderate rip current risk Friday night through Saturday for
local beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Fog will continue to be the predominant concern for the next few
nights. There remains some lingering fog this afternoon along the
Alabama coastline, but, after monitoring local webcams, it remains
very transient in nature and moves along very quickly. We expect
another round of fog, potentially dense fog, late tonight into the
morning hours on Friday. However, unlike the past few days, while
the probabilities of dense fog development remain high, we are
less confident in exactly where the dense fog will develop. We
have some confidence in fog development across south-central
Alabama, but not necessarily everywhere else. For that reason
we're going to hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now and allow
the next shift to look at the guidance before potentially issuing
an advisory. Another round of fog or low ceilings is possible late
Friday night into Saturday morning behind the rain.
The forecast generally remains on track for the next several days.
Ridging aloft remains overhead today, but begins to flatten out
Friday into Saturday as a shortwave pivots across the Plains and
into the Midwest. A weak surface low reflection associated with
this shortwave will also pivot into the Midwest over the weekend.
The weak cold front draped southwestward from the low will
eventually swing across the local area. It will take some time for
the front to make it all the way through the area on Saturday
given the zonal flow just above the surface. The front may stall
just offshore for a bit before the surface high in the wake of the
front pushes the gas pedal Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The best dynamics will be well to the north of our area, so while
we may have some storms (a few might be strong in the afternoon
hours), we do not anticipate widespread severe storms with this
system. There has been a trend in recent ensemble guidance of
training showers and storms across some of our northernmost
counties late Friday afternoon into the evening hours, which is
leading to 2-4 inches of rain in a few very isolated spots (along
and north of Highway 84). We will continue to monitor these trends
and will amp up our messaging if warranted.
Sunday and Monday will be transition days as high pressure builds
into and out of the region in between systems, so expect a dry
forecast those days. That said, flow aloft becomes much more
amplified in the late weekend and early next week timeframe as an
upper low over Baja California opens up as it ejects northeastward
across the Plains. Expect another a few quick hitting system on
the heels of one another Tuesday into Wednesday (potentially into
early Thursday). The signal in the guidance isn't overwhelming
when it comes to the severe threat, however, multiple rounds of
rain could lead to a minor flooding threat. The front should clear
through the region at some point on Wednesday or early on
Thursday, but the guidance is a bit murky on the timing that far
out in time. Regardless, the worst case scenario is that the
lingering rain showers clear out of the area through the morning
on Thanksgiving. Given the strong pressure gradient, it could be
windy on Thanksgiving.
Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with
a brief bump to a MODERATE risk Friday night into Saturday. The
risk will fall back to a LOW in between systems with another bump
to MODERATE Monday night through at least mid-week ahead of the
next system. 07/mb
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Restrictions to visibility remain challenging tonight as FEW to
occasional BKN low clouds (~2000 feet) act like a blanket,
resulting in fog being more transient. Patchy to areas of dense
fog will again develop along the coast by mid-evening and spread
inland through the overnight hours, with the best chance of dense
fog occurring southeast of I-65 with ceilings and visibilities
falling to LIFR to VLIFR criteria. However, we should see
visibilities improve to VFR along the immediate coast late this
evening due to a slight increase in southerly winds. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Dense marine fog is possible again the next 2 nights, particularly
for the bays and sounds. Fog will develop each night after
midnight and persist through mid-morning. Onshore flow will
increase to exercise caution levels Monday night into Tuesday with
offshore nearing advisory conditions on Thursday. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 77 62 79 64 / 0 0 40 10
Pensacola 75 65 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
Destin 75 65 76 68 / 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 83 56 81 63 / 0 0 20 20
Waynesboro 80 59 79 62 / 0 20 60 20
Camden 80 56 78 62 / 0 0 50 30
Crestview 81 56 79 63 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 210028
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy late night and early morning fog each day.
- Sunny and dry with temperatures running several degrees above
normal through early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
The only weather concern continues to be the potential for some
overnight patchy fog. The forecast is currently capturing the area
where this favored well. Otherwise, dry weather continues with no
changes needed to the forecast at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
High pressure remains over the region over the next few days before
a weak frontal boundary moves over the region this weekend. Moisture
is rather limited, but would not be shocked to see a few sprinkles
here and there, mainly during the day on Sunday. Otherwise,
conditions remain warmer than normal through the week with only some
patchy fog to mention each night. The next cool-down might come late
next week with the next system, but time will tell.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Only aviation concern with a significant impact is the potential for
early morning fog generally from 10Z to 14Z. However, the potential
is too low for any mention, except at KLAL and PGD where some lower
VISBYs have been included. Most fog should remain across the
interior and Nature Coast. A similar pattern continues for the next
few days.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Light east to southeast winds will remain over the waters for the
next couple of days, with a turn onshore with the sea breeze in
the afternoon. No headlines are expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected each night,
mainly for the Nature Coast and interior.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 85 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 82 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 54 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 80 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 202341
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
641 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 629 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Fog will continue to be a concern the next 2 mornings, some of
which may be dense at times. Exercise caution if commuting
under such conditions. Any fog mixing with smoke from wildfires
may greatly restrict visibility in localized spots.
- Drought persists and/or worsens with little to no rain and unseasonably
warm temperatures expected through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Fog remains the main story through the next couple of nights. Fog
will develop again late tonight into Friday morning, starting near
the coast, then spreading north and east through the night. Some of
the fog could be dense in spots, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed again on later shifts. Otherwise, lows will be in the 50s.
Otherwise, Friday continues our trend of warm and dry weather with
highs in the low to mid 80s. Fog will be less expansive Friday
night, mostly confined to the Florida Big Bend. This is due to winds
increasing slightly ahead of an approaching cold front over our
western areas. An isolated shower or two may skirt the northern
fringes of our area late Friday night, but we are at the tail end of
a weakening system. Not much rain is expected, if any, in southeast
Alabama.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
The aforementioned cold front passes through the area Saturday
rather quietly given limited moisture and weakening upper-level
support. A stray shower is possible, but chances are around 10%.
Temperatures don't change much behind the front either with highs
staying in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday through Monday and
lows in the 50s.
By Tuesday, another cold front attempts a run at our area. However,
the parent shortwave to this system begins to lift northward and
dampen as it moves across the Mississippi River. Thus, scattered
showers at best are expected with rain chances around 30-40% both
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, confidence is not particularly high
at this juncture. Unfortunately, no drought relief is expected with
any of our systems during the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Main changes with the 00Z TAFs was to fine tune vsbys and
timing with respect to fairly widespread fog by Friday AM
and lifting cigs more slowly on Friday with a return to VFR
late morning or early afternoon. In particular, a period of
LIFR cigs/vsbys beginning ~05Z at ECP and ~10Z at DHN/TLH;
confidence highest at DHN/ECP. Restrictions are expected to
taper off some toward ABY/VLD with medium confidence in a
period of LIFR around sunrise at ABY and a period of MVFR
around sunrise at VLD. As mentioned a gradual lift at all
terminals in cigs/vsbys beginning ~13-16Z with a return
to VFR ~16-18Z, although that timing may need fine tuning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Some patchy sea fog is possible through Friday night over the cooler
nearshore waters as well as Apalachee Bay. Otherwise, light to
gentle southerly breezes continue through Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front. No rain is expected over the marine area
with the front, only a wind shift out of the north by Sunday. Winds
gradually shift out of the east by Monday then southerly and
increasing to moderate on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Seas
remain favorable at around 1 to 3 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Transport winds increase out of the south and southwest on Friday to
around 10-15 mph, then increase further on Saturday to 10-20 mph
ahead of a cold front. Mixing heights will be around 3,000-4,000 ft
both days with higher values in the Wiregrass on Saturday. Thus,
good dispersions are expected away from the coast both days with
some high dispersions across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
on Saturday. Min RH values will be in the 40s and 50s both days with
excellent recovery overnight. Chances for a wetting rain on Saturday
remain very low (less than 5%).
On Sunday, transport winds become more northerly around 5-10 mph
behind the cold front with fair to good dispersions expected. Min RH
values drop to the 30s for most of the area Sunday afternoon.
Fog, dense at times, is expected tonight and again Friday night.
Fog mixing with smoke will restrict visibilities to near zero in
localized spots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Little rainfall is expected for the next 7 days across the area.
Even our reasonable high-end totals for the next 7 days are around
0.50-0.75 inches, which will unfortunately not help the drought
situation.
As of today, the US Drought Monitor now has the area around the
Florida-Georgia state line outlined in Exceptional Drought (D4),
which is the highest category on the drought monitor. This is the
first time since the 2011-2012 winter that any part of our area of
responsibility has been outlined in Exceptional Drought. For more
information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 84 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 78 61 77 66 / 0 0 0 10
Dothan 83 55 81 63 / 0 0 0 10
Albany 83 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 84 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 84 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 73 60 74 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 202323
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
623 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Mainly sunny and pleasant conditions will remain in place
across South Florida through the week.
- Patchy dense fog is possible overnight into early Friday
morning across interior portions of South Florida.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
No major changes were made to the previous forecast as everything
looks on track with high pressure continuing to bring dry
conditions to the region. There is the potential for some patchy
fog development once again overnight into early Friday morning
across the interior portions of South Florida. Any fog that does
develop will quickly lift after sunrise and dry conditions will
persist through the rest of Friday. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the upper 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to around 70
across the east coast metro areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Upper level ridging extends from the Gulf into Canada, with South
Florida remaining on the eastern periphery of this feature. At the
surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
continue to shift offshore. This will maintain east-northeasterly
flow over the area, and partly cloudy conditions each day through
the period. Moisture profiles remain below average, with PWAT
values ranging from .8 inches to 1 inch, but there may be a few
isolated showers along the east coast during the morning hours
each day. Without ample moisture and forcing, these would be low-
topped and extremely short-lived. POPs remain less than 10% for
all of South Florida.
High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the lower 80s along
the coastline, with mid to upper 80s possible for portions of
interior South Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
Not much change with the long term outlook as high pressure firmly
remains in control through the weekend into the new work-week. Late
in the weekend a weakening cold front will settle into north Florida
and washout early next week with another area of high pressure
building in from the north. This boundary is expected to be so weak
that we may not even see a surface flow response to it across South
Florida and maintain east-northeast flow through the weekend. With a
lack of moisture, and a lack of moisture advection from this frontal
boundary, sensible impacts will be nearly nonexistent and we should
be able to maintain primarily partly cloudy and pleasant conditions
each day through the long term period.
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon along
the coasts while some portions of inland SW Florida may hit the
upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds overnight will increase out of the east after
16z Friday and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the
afternoon. Some patchy fog may develop late tonight into early
Friday morning across the interior sections, however, most of the
fog should remain away from the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
A gentle to moderate east-northeast breeze will prevail across
local waters today and tomorrow. Wave heights should remain 3 feet
or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 71 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 66 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 69 84 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 69 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 70 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 70 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 69 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 69 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 69 83 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 65 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC
