fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 211402
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
902 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018
.Update.../through this evening/...
High pressure will build to the Northwest Today. Skies will be clear
for much of the day, but a gradual increase in clouds over
Southeastern counties can be expected as a coastal trough begins
to develop.
Highs Today will trend a little below normal, with highs ranging
from 65 near the Altamaha to the lower 70s GNV and South.
&&
.Aviation.../12z TAF period/...
VFR conditions expected this 12z TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 37 63 45 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 66 50 65 55 / 0 0 10 50
JAX 68 45 67 57 / 0 0 10 50
SGJ 68 53 69 60 / 0 0 30 50
GNV 71 44 69 55 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 72 45 72 56 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 211419
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
919 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018
.UPDATE...
Cool, dry advection has set up across the area in wake of the cool
front that moved through the area overnight and this morning with
high pressure building in to our north. Most locations reported low
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s this morning with a few low
60s along the Space and Treasure Coasts. GOES-16 Total Precipitable
Water shows this drier mass settling in with values ranging from
0.60" across northern Volusia county and just over an inch along
the Treasure Coast. Other than a slight increase in cirrus later
today and some marine stratocu along the coast, plenty of sunshine
is expected with this dry air mass in place. Temperatures will be
right around late November averages with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with northerly winds of 5-10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...A weak front over central Florida will continue
its trek southward this morning before stalling over the Straits
of Florida tonight. North winds behind the boundary will veer
slightly to the NNE tonight while remaining in the 10-15 kt
range. Seas 2-3 feet nearshore and up to 4 feet offshore.
Thursday-Sunday (previous)...Local pressure gradient will tighten
significantly between a large, strengthening high pressure ridge
over the eastern CONUS and a developing inverted surface trough
offshore the ECFL coast. Winds/seas will reach SCA levels late
Thursday through Friday, however for now the forecast is below the
GFS/WNWAVE progs (30KT and 12-13FT) and a little closer to the
ECM wind and NWPS wave models. Winds/seas will subside this
weekend as the large high to the north weakens and the surface
trough lifts out.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 54 73 63 / 0 10 40 50
MCO 77 55 75 61 / 0 0 30 40
MLB 76 59 77 65 / 0 10 40 50
VRB 78 61 78 64 / 10 10 30 40
LEE 75 52 73 60 / 0 0 20 30
SFB 77 54 74 61 / 0 0 40 50
ORL 77 56 74 61 / 0 0 30 40
FPR 78 61 78 64 / 10 10 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Combs/Kelly/Rodriguez
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 211744 AAA
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1144 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions through 22.18z. Expect increasing
mid to high clouds generally from 22.06z through 22.18z. Winds
will be mostly north at 4 to 10 knots through 22.18z. 32/ee
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours.
Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots today become light northerly or
calm tonight. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...An upper trof over the
interior eastern states begins to move off into the western Atlantic
during the period. A surface high over the south central and south
east states is reinforced by a large surface high building over the
eastern states and maintains a dry, light northerly flow over the
forecast area. A series of shortwaves advancing eastward from
Texas will bring increasing cloud cover mainly to the western
portion of the area late tonight, but otherwise clear to mostly
clear skies are expected. Highs today will be about 5 degrees
below normal and range from around 60 inland to the lower 60s
closer to the coast. Lows tonight will be nearly 10 degrees below
normal with mid 30s for much of the area except for near 40 at the
coast. /29
SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Will begin the short
term period with the eastward passage of a southern stream short-
wave mid level trof over the Gulf coast. Very little change
regarding precipitation with this feature as the main focus for
any measurable rains look to be over the coastal waters. Surface
high pressure in control from the Mid-Atlantic to across the deep
south on Thanksgiving Day with high temperatures, near 60, being
about 5 to 8 degrees below seasonal normals. Thursday night
reflects some gradual moderation than seen in the near term mins.
For holiday shoppers, ensure you have the wet weather gear handy
on Friday. A more defined upper level storm system, ejecting
quickly east out of the Plains Friday afternoon, makes steady
progression across the deep south Friday night. Height falls
associated with this feature expands eastward across the upper
Mid-West to the Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. This causes a
a wave of surface frontal low pressure to form over the western
Gulf early Friday which lifts northeast to the LA coast during
the day Friday. Wedge of surface high pressure over the southeast
looks to remain strong enough as to bring this feature on a more
easterly track, keeping warm front near or just south of the
coast. The low clips the central Gulf coast Friday night. There
appears to be enough instability and shear in place over the
coastal waters that would support the potential of some strong
storms that are rooted in the warm sector. Low level shear looks
to also be adequate for the potential of some supercells that may
exhibit rotation in those areas. Could be some thunder over
portions of the coast, but looking at current data suggests these
will become quickly elevated as they move northeast across the
warm front. There is also potential for locally heavy rains,
especially near the coast, closer to the low track. At this time,
gridded event total rainfall suggests upwards of 2 to 3 inches
near the coast, tapering lower as one looks northwest of the
coast. /10
LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Quite a temperature swing
during the medium range. Friday's system moves quickly out by
Saturday, but little in the way of cooling behind this system. In
fact, as yet another Plains storm system and front moves east late
Saturday and into the MS River Valley Sunday, warm air advection
processes become more pronounced. This favors weekend temperatures
trending above climatology. Sunday being the warmest day. Rain
chances return Sunday with approach of strong cold front. Front
makes passage Sunday night. Rains end with frontal passage and
temperatures trend lower to start the new week. Highs on Monday
and Tuesday about 6 to 10 degrees below normal. /10
MARINE...Moderate to potentially strong northerly winds subside
today then become easterly on Thursday. May need to have Small
Craft Exercise Caution for much of the area early this morning until
the flow subsides. The easterly flow increases Thursday night then
becomes a strong southeast flow on Friday as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Winds become northwest Friday night as
the low pressure system moves across the area then subside on
Saturday. A small craft advisory may be required for much of the
area Friday and Friday night. The offshore flow subsides on
Saturday. /29
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 211721
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1221 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions can be expected through the period. Winds
will be light out of the north-northeast less than 10 knots through
the day. No other aviation impacts expected.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 915 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018/
UPDATE...
The day started off with some patchy dense fog for a few hours in
some areas, primarily over the fog-prone inland areas. This fog
quickly burned off after sunrise and local observations and visible
satellite imagery are showing clear skies across Florida this
morning. The cool front that pushed through Florida yesterday
extends across southern Florida and has allowed for some cooler
temps and lower humidities to filter into the area this morning.
Reported temperatures and dew points in most areas are around 10
degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, which is feeling very comfortable.
The morning 12Z sounding is showing a drastic drop in PW values down
to 0.85 inches in the wake of yesterdays cool front. High pressure
will build in from the north which will keep rain-free conditions
across the area today. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with seasonal
temps expected. No changes needed to the forecast at this time.
AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions can be expected through the period as the
intermittent periods of FG/BR reported at KLAL and KPGD have burned
off. Winds will be light out of the north-northeast less than 10
knots through the day. No other aviation impacts expected.
MARINE WEATHER...
High pressure moves over the southeast U.S. in the wake of a cool
front that moved through Florida yesterday. This will keep rain-free
conditions and a north-northeast wind flow less than 15 knots over
the gulf coast waters through the end of the week. An area of low
pressure develops to the northwest over the northern gulf coast by
late Friday into Saturday which will bring increasing rain/storm
chances and winds will shift to the south-southwest around 15 knots
by Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build back in by Sunday
with improving conditions into next week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 76 56 75 60 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 81 60 78 62 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 78 56 76 60 / 0 0 10 20
SRQ 76 58 75 62 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 75 51 74 58 / 0 0 0 20
SPG 75 60 74 62 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 211706
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1206 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018
.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
Skies will be mostly clear until close to the end of the TAF
period. Winds will be light and northerly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [1052 AM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
In the upper levels flow will be nearly zonal. At the surface, high
pressure will be over the Southeast. POPs today will be near zero
and skies will be sunny. Highs will be in the 60s.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
A shortwave will exit the Southern Plains to start the period, and
pass over the Southeast through the day on Thursday. Due to the
stable lower troposphere, surface cyclogenesis is not expected.
This wave will likely just bring with it some mid and high level
cloudiness through the day. A second shortwave will move through
the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. This
system will be responsible for ushering in rain chances to end the
week as weak Gulf cyclogenesis is forecast. Expect moderating
temperatures through the period, warming through the 60s each
afternoon. Overnight lows will warm back into the 40s region-wide
by Thursday night.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The bulk of the rain with the aforementioned system will arrive
overnight Friday and should be mostly through the region by
Saturday afternoon. With favorable deep layer shear and a
strengthening LLJ, can't rule out an isolated severe storm
(primarily south of I10) where a weakly unstable airmass may slip
into the region. A brief break is expected through the weekend
before another frontal system move through the region. The next
system will be less dynamic as the shortwave will pass further
north of the Tri-State region. We could end up just seeing a
broken line of showers on Monday morning. Thereafter, a drier and
less active period is expected through mid week.
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to tick up to Cautionary (and possibly
Advisory) levels beginning Thursday night and lasting until the
low pressure system moves out of the Gulf on Saturday. Showers and
storms will begin as early as Friday and last through Saturday as
well.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low dispersion values below 20 are possible this afternoon in parts
of SW Georgia and the FL Big Bend. Otherwise no fire weather
concerns.
.HYDROLOGY...
The late week/weekend frontal system is forecast to bring average
rainfall amounts of 1-3" along the Panhandle and possibly into the
Big Bend. Unfortunately this is where some of our more sensitive
rivers are located, with the Apalachicola still in flood this
morning. Will have to keep an eye on the evolution of the forecast
the next couple of days as we continue to assess the flood threat
for portions of north Florida.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 39 64 46 68 56 / 0 0 0 20 80
Panama City 44 62 50 68 60 / 0 0 0 30 90
Dothan 37 61 43 61 51 / 0 0 0 30 80
Albany 39 62 43 61 51 / 0 0 0 20 70
Valdosta 40 63 48 66 54 / 0 0 10 30 70
Cross City 41 68 52 74 59 / 0 10 10 20 50
Apalachicola 45 63 52 69 61 / 0 10 10 30 80
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 211733
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1233 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018
.AVIATION...
Mostly quiet weather conditions, with the exception of some
isolated coastal showers along the east coast. Currently, not
anticipating any significant impact to the airports through the
TAF period. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to turn the wind
easterly for the Atlantic coast early this afternoon. For KAPF, a
weak Gulf breeze should turn the wind more northwesterly this
afternoon. Tonight, look for the land breeze to bring the wind
back to an off shore flow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1043 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018/
UPDATE...
Only a few minor changes to the forecast to adjust PoPs over the
Atlantic waters. Some models are showing some of the showers
could move onshore, but kept it limited to only a slight chance
for now, as the models seem as they are over doing precip at this
time. So there is still some uncertainty. Otherwise, only minor
tweaks to account for current conditions.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT: Latest WPC and TAFB surface analysis has a weak
cold front passing through the region with another front in
central FL working its way down the peninsula. It will be this
front that merges and reinforces the other front and move through
today. Light northerly flow will become northeasterly this
afternoon. A slight chance of showers along the east coast as the
second front moves through. Behind the front a drier pocket of air
will keep shower activity limited across the area this evening and
tonight, lower humidity will bring pleasant temps for the next
day or so.
Overnight, shower activity will be focused over the Atlantic
waters. Low temps will range from upper 50s to around 60 around
Lake Okeechobee, to mid 60s along the Gulf coast, upper 60s for
east coast metro to around 70 for east coast coastal areas.
SHORT TERM (Thursday - Friday): The GFS has come into better
agreement with the ECMWF with the vort 500mb shortwave it has been
showing much weaker across our area now. The ECMWF still has little
to no vort shortwave across the area. The Thanksgiving Day
holiday looks like it will be mostly dry with only about a 20
percent chance of scattered showers along the east coast. A little
less humid and high temps for the holiday will be right around
normal for this time of year in the low 80s. Lower humidity and
temps back to normal will be short lived as humidity and moisture
content begins to increase across the region Friday.
LONG TERM (Weekend into early next week): A low pressure system
over the northern Gulf and Florida will have a cold front draped
to its south. As the low moves up the eastern CONUS the front
will slowly work its way down the peninsula. Ahead of the front
southwesterly flow across South Florida will allow temperatures to
moderate into the mid 80s and dewpoints rising into the low 70s.
The increase in moisture ahead of the front will allow scattered
showers to be possible each day. Although timing of the cold
front passage varies run to run as we are almost a week out, as
of now it looks like the front moves through Tuesday with drier
conditions and cooler temps behind the front.
MARINE...
A chance of showers possible each day over the Atlantic waters. A
front moving through the region will shift winds northeasterly 10
to 15 knots. Seas generally 2 feet or less in the Gulf with seas
2 to 3 feet in the Atlantic. Seas begin to build in the Atlantic
Friday with a northerly swell this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 67 80 66 80 / 10 20 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 70 80 69 81 / 10 20 20 20
Miami 69 81 69 82 / 10 20 20 20
Naples 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...13
