fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 250758
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AREA-WIDE TODAY...
...ONSHORE WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINDY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Overnight surface analysis depicts a weakening cold front
extending from the Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward across the
southern Appalachians, with this boundary then becoming stationary
further westward across the lower Mississippi Valley and the
southern Plains states. Meanwhile, high pressure (1021 millibars)
was located to the south of this cold front along the northern
Gulf coast and the FL peninsula, while a stronger high pressure
center (1029 millibars) was building over the Great Lakes region
in the wake of the cold front. Aloft...troughing was progressing
across New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, while ridging was
building over the Plains states, which were positioned downstream
of a potent trough that was progressing eastward from southern
California towards the Desert Southwest. Mid-level cloud cover
associated with the approaching cold front was located to the
north of Waycross in southeast GA, with fair skies prevailing
elsewhere across our region. Temperatures at 08Z were generally in
the 55-60 degree range at inland locations, while coastal and
temperatures were mainly in the 60-65 degree range. Dewpoints were
in the 50s area-wide.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Patchy fog developing over the Suwannee Valley overnight may
expand northeastward into the Okefenokee Swamp towards sunrise,
with this fog bank unlikely to extend east of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor. Fog at these locations should then dissipate during the
early morning hours as sunshine quickly warms and mixes the lower
troposphere.
Ridging aloft over the Plains states will build eastward as
troughing slides off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts,
allowing for heights to rise as ridging builds eastward from the
Plains states. This weather pattern will leave little in the way
of support for the frontal boundary that will be moving slowly
across the southeastern states today and tonight, with this
boundary crossing inland southeast GA this afternoon and then
decelerating as it approaches the FL/GA border this evening. Mid-
level cloud cover will continue to gradually increase this morning
ahead of the approaching boundary across southeast GA, with this
cloud cover then shifting over northeast FL this afternoon.
Weakening high pressure to the south of the approaching cold front
will leave our area within a weak local pressure gradient today,
allowing for the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop towards
noon at coastal locations, followed by these boundaries moving
more quickly inland this afternoon when compared to previous days.
A collision of these boundaries seems to be likely along the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor towards sunset, but a dry and increasingly
subsident air mass will only allow for mid-level cloudiness to be
generated by these inland moving mesoscale boundaries this
afternoon. This dry air mass and rising heights aloft will allow
highs to climb to the mid 80s at most inland locations this
afternoon, while developing breezy onshore winds this afternoon
after the passage of the sea breeze boundary keeps coastal highs
closer to 80.
Mid-level cloud cover generated by the weakening cold front will
shift over northeast and north central FL tonight. Clearing skies
over southeast GA could result in at least patchy fog development
along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise on Saturday.
Otherwise, light winds and a lingering dry air mass should allow
lows to fall to the upper 50s at most inland locations, ranging to
the low and mid 60s at coastal locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Weak, dry cold front becomes more diffuse and dissipates on Friday
over northeast FL, while sfc high pressure ridging strengthens to
the northeast of the area. Anticipate light southeast winds Friday
morning turning more to the east during the afternoon up to near
10-15 mph and gusty as the sea breeze moves in quickly. PWATs near
1.2 inches and sufficient low level moisture looks to support low
rain chances at only 10-15 percent.
Friday night through Saturday night, high pressure continues to
dominate to the northeast of the area with prevailing easterly
flow, breezy during the daytime, and breezy at night near the
coast. A couple of showers can't be ruled out over the marine
zones given the fairly moist low levels and some convergent bands.
Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy given a mix of mostly
daytime cumulus and scattered to broken high clouds. Max temps
expected in the lower to mid 80s Friday and around 80-85 deg
Saturday. Warmest temps will be inland given the prevailing east
flow. Lows near normal from upper 50s and lower/mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Mostly dry and warm conditions this period. A strong mid/upper
level ridge will be across the east coast Sunday, but will break
down while moving east. A weak mid level trough will move into GA
Monday night into Tuesday, but ridging is still dominate in the
mid levels that will keep our area in a stable pattern. A sfc high
pressure system near 1028 mb starts out off the Mid Atlantic
states and will drift southward through Wednesday. Breezy east to
southeast winds Sunday and Monday will gradually ease by Tuesday
and Wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Mostly clear to
partly cloudy each day. There may be some slight chance for
convection across inland southeast GA by Wednesday as a weak pre-
frontal trough triggers a couple of showers.
Fairly seasonal max temperatures around 80-85 deg anticipated
Sunday, but a warming trend commences Monday through Wednesday.
Temperatures will steadily increase into the upper 80s to near 90
by mid week inland zones, and generally lower 80s coastal areas.
Lows will be near normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
MVFR visibilities are expected to develop overnight at VQQ, with
brief periods of IFR conditions possible through the predawn
hours. Confidence was not high enough to indicate a sustained
period of IFR conditions at VQQ at this time. A brief period of
fog may also materialize around sunrise at GNV, but confidence in
sub-VFR visibilities was too low to include restrictions at GNV at
this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional
terminals, with periods of broken ceilings around 6,000 feet
possible at SSI during the predawn and morning hours, with this
cloud cover then expanding southward to the northeast FL terminals
after sunrise. Light southwesterly surface winds overnight will
shift to westerly after sunrise, with speeds at the regional
terminals increasing to 5-10 knots before 15Z. The Atlantic and
Gulf coast sea breezes will then develop towards noon and will
push more quickly inland than prior days, resulting in surface
winds shifting to westerly at GNV following the passage of the
Gulf coast sea breeze, with sustained speeds increasing to around
10 knots. Surface winds will shift to easterly at SGJ following
the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary shortly after
noon, with sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots during the
early to mid afternoon hours. Surface winds elsewhere will shift
to easterly or southeasterly during the early to mid afternoon
hours, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots, except at GNV,
where this wind shift will likely not occur until around sunset as
the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries collide around U.S.
Highway 301. Surface winds will then shift to southeasterly or
southerly by the mid-evening hours at the regional terminals,
with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
A weak cold front entering the southeastern states will nudge
southward today, crossing the GA waters tonight and then becoming
stationary over the northeast FL waters by Friday evening before
dissolving during the weekend. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail
today near shore, with 3-5 foot seas expected offshore. Meanwhile,
strong high pressure building over the eastern Great Lakes in the
wake of this cold front will shift eastward over New England on
Friday, with this feature then wedging down the southeastern
seaboard from Friday afternoon through early Sunday. Onshore winds
will strengthen beginning on Friday afternoon, with speeds and
seas likely reaching Caution levels of 15-20 knots by late
afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions are becoming
increasingly likely for the offshore waters adjacent to northeast
FL from early Saturday evening through at least Sunday morning,
where seas will build to 5-7 feet. Caution conditions will persist
for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL during this
period, as seas build to 4-6 feet. High pressure will then
gradually weaken as it shifts southward late this weekend, with
this feature then becoming anchored off the Carolina coast by
early next week. Onshore winds and seas will gradually diminish
throughout our local waters late this weekend and early next week.
Rip Currents: A long period northeasterly ocean swell will combine
with breezy onshore winds this afternoon to create a high end
moderate rip current risk at all area beaches, with breakers of
2-4 feet expected. Onshore winds will then strengthen to 15-20 mph
on Friday afternoon, keeping at least a high-end moderate rip
current risk in place, with a possible high risk at the northeast
FL beaches. Onshore winds will then strengthen to around 20 mph
during the weekend, with building and increasingly rough surf
resulting in a high rip current risk at all area beaches.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Moderate flooding along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near
the Three Rivers Estates gauge will continue through the weekend,
with water levels then gradually falling, but remaining in minor
flood for much of next week. Water levels near the gauge at
Hildreth on the lower Santa Fe will also gradually subside late
this weekend, with minor flooding expected to continue through at
least the middle portions of next week. Water levels are gradually
falling along upper portions of the Suwannee River near the gauge
at Suwannee Springs, where minor flooding will likely continue
through Friday morning. Minor flooding will otherwise continue
along most of the lower Suwannee River through the weekend.
Elsewhere, water levels are expected to fall below flood stage
along lower portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at
Atkinson towards sunrise on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 84 58 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
SSI 82 63 78 67 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 85 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
SGJ 81 62 82 67 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 86 59 85 62 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 86 58 86 63 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 250638
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Today-Tonight...A broad area of high pressure across the western
Atlantic will remain in place, with the associated ridge axis
settling across central Florida. Dry conditions are forecast to
persist, with mostly sunny skies remaining in place. With the ridge
axis draped across the peninsula, winds are forecast to remain light
and variable this morning, becoming easterly this afternoon as the
east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland as a result of the
temperature gradient between the peninsula and the local Atlantic
waters. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than the last couple
of days, roughly in the low 80s along the immediate coast and
reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Winds will begin
to diminish late, becoming generally southeasterly and even variable
at times overnight. Dry conditions will continue into the overnight
hours. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Fri-Sun...Mid-upper level ridging will hold tight across the
southeast U.S. and FL peninsula thru the weekend. Mid-level impulses
will occasionally slide down the peninsula during this time, though
we retain mostly dry conditions with a stable onshore surface flow
and less than modest moisture. However, will not rule out a few
showers across the local coastal waters. Surface high pressure
will dominate across much of the eastern CONUS. This will allow
for a persistent onshore flow and the pgrad will be tight enough
for breezy conditions each afternoon, especially along the coast.
Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s near the coast and L-M80s into
the interior, possibly some U80s Fri afternoon toward the
Kissimmee River. Overnight lows mild and well into the 60s each
early morning.
Mon-Thu...The upper ridging begins to break down and shift off of
the Atlc Seaboard into the western Atlc. Initial surface high
pressure off of the Carolinas will also weaken thru mid-week, while
gradually shifting southward. The onshore surface flow stays mostly
intact, though the pgrad will slowly weaken during this time.
Continue to keep conditions over land dry. A warming trend will
begin, with L80s at the immediate coast, perhaps some M80s here by
Thu, and M-U80s into the interior - perhaps some readings near 90F
well into the interior by Wed/Thu. Overnight lows remain consistent
and in the 60s areawide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
to calm winds will become easterly as the sea breeze moves inland,
with wind speeds up to 12 knots possible. Winds become light and
variable once more late tonight. Dry conditions forecast through the
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions will persist
across the local Atlantic waters. An area of high pressure will
continue to keep conditions dry, with light and variable winds this
morning becoming east-southeast across the waters at 5 to 10 knots.
Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet today into tonight.
Fri-Mon...Less than favorable boating conditions going forward. ERLY
winds on Fri gradually increase to 10-16 kts during the day, 15-20
kts Fri night with Cautionary Statements necessary, and the pressure
gradient continues to tighten Sat-Sat night 16-22 kts (marginal
Small Craft Advisory criteria), then slowly backing off Sun 14-19
kts and Mon, again, 10-16 kts. Initial seas 2 ft near shore and 3
ft Gulf Stream will gradually build in response to the increasing
winds, 4-6 ft by daybreak Sat morning, 5-6 ft during the day on
Sat, 5-7 ft Sat overnight - gradually/slowly subsiding Sun
afternoon-Mon. While conditions will remain mostly dry, cannot
rule out some ISOLD shower activity thru this period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions will still exist across
east central Florida as minimum RH values drop into the 30 to 45
percent range. Winds will be light and variable this morning,
becoming easterly around 10 mph as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland.
Fri...Min RHs recover a bit into the U30s to M40s inland and 50-
55pct near the coast. Easterly winds increase to 10-15 mph, with
perhaps a bit gusty along the coast.
Sat-Mon...Onshore winds increase a bit more into the extended
15 mph/15-20 mph. Min RHs stay above critical levels on Sat, but
as temperatures climb Sun-Mon, we will see values fall back to
35-40pct over the interior on Sun/Mon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 62 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 86 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 81 66 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 82 63 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 86 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 82 62 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tollefsen
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 250501
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
VFR will prevail through the period, with the exception, with a
potential for patchy fog development late tonight, with
visibility reductions to MVFR category or lower possible in some
interior locations. Surface winds will be calm to light and
variable into Thursday morning, becoming more predominate light
southeasterly in the afternoon. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the region tonight
and Thursday on the backside of a shortwave trough that will be
moving into the western Atlantic off the southeast US coast. At
the surface, a high pressure ridge will continue to stretch west-
east across our area through Thursday as well. A somewhat variable
light surface wind flow pattern will continue tonight into early
Thursday, but increase slightly and become more predominately
southerly by late in the day on Thursday. Gradual increase in
low/mid level moisture through the period, with PWATS rising into
the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range tonight and Thursday. Overall though,
the the deep layer between 850-700MB. Some weak shortwave energy
aloft on Thursday, combined with the increasing moisture, could
result in an isolated shower or storm over the northern third of
the forecast area (up along the Highway 84 corridor) on Thursday,
but for now the chances of any rain for now remains too low to
carry an PoP greater than 20 percent. There could also be some
very patchy light fog development across interior portions of the
forecast area late tonight. The gradual warming trend continues.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the middle 50s over most
interior locations to the lower 60s along the coast. High
temperatures return to 80s for most locations on Thursday, with
low to mid 80s expected except for some upper 70s along the
immediate coast where the onshore flow moderates temperatures just
slightly. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
The area remains dry through the weekend before rain chances
return early next week.
Northwest flow aloft remains across the forecast area Thursday
night before upper level ridging pushes across the area. This will
transition us to a more westerly and eventually southwest flow
aloft as we head into the weekend and early next week. The
forecast area remains predominately dry as any appreciable
shortwaves pass well to the north of the gulf coast through the
weekend. A sharper, deeper trough may try to impinge on the area
Monday into Tuesday which may result in slightly increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures
remain seasonable in the lower to middle 80's for highs each
afternoon and lows in the lower to middle 60's each morning.
Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Friday with
a HIGH RISK expected on Saturday and Sunday as onshore flow
continues to increase at the beaches. RCMOS probabilities indicate
a high likelihood of the risk remaining HIGH through Monday and
potentially into early Tuesday at all local beaches. MM/25 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
A light and somewhat variable flow pattern will prevail across the
marine area through Thursday morning, especially over the bays and
near shore Gulf waters. An onshore flow pattern will otherwise
continue through the remainder of the week. The onshore flow will
strengthen along with a build in seas this weekend. Will likely be
looking for at least SCEC conditions with respect to winds,
(possibly SCA for seas that may be approaching 7 feet) by Friday
night and continuing through the weekend. Winds and seas will
likely become hazardous to small craft. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 59 83 61 81 66 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 61 81 64 78 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 64 79 66 78 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 56 85 58 84 61 83 61 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 56 85 59 85 63 84 61 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 56 82 58 84 62 83 62 83 / 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 56 85 58 84 61 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 250538
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
138 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
VFR conditions prevailing across terminals through the period as
dry air stays in place. Light north to east winds are expected
overnight and into the morning with clear skies remaining. Then,
the sea breeze should shift winds from the west and increase
slightly during the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 84 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 87 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 83 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 85 59 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 70 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 250801
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
401 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Northwesterly upper level flow prevails through tonight ahead of a
building upper level ridge currently across the central Plains. A
weak shortwave will traverse across the region in the northwesterly
flow aloft and combined with a warmer afternoon and slightly higher
preciptable waters, we'll likely see a few more clouds around today.
Rain is not expected, but a brief rain shower can't be ruled out
across our southeast Alabama counties, but even here rain chances
are less than 10%. Light north and northwest winds are forecast in
the morning and will become southerly through the afternoon as the
seabreeze develops and more through. High temperatures will be in
the mid 80s.
Quiet conditions are expected tonight with only forecast concerns
being patchy/areas of fog developing across the Panhandle
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Surface high pressure slowly slides eastward on Friday, while a
deep surface low develops over the central U.S. Upper level
ridging will be building in from the west during this period,
which will allow dry conditions to continue. The pressure gradient
between the surface high over the east and the low over the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region will tighten allowing for breezier
conditions on Saturday.
Highs for Friday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s,
although the FL coast will may only top out in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will be in the
low to mid 60s.
Saturday's highs will generally be in the mid 80s for inland
areas and low 80s near the coast. Saturday night into Sunday
morning, lows vary from the low to mid 60s for much of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Upper level ridging looks to hold along the eastern seaboard for
much of the region, with surface high pressure sliding down the
seaboard and towards Bermuda. This will generally hold and keep
fairly dry conditions in place. A disturbance passes to our north
midweek which could lead to some showers and rumbles of thunder to
our northern and eastern most counties late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period but brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions due to smoke and/or patchy fog is
possible at ECP, TLH, and VLD through sunrise. The highest
confidence is at ECP. Fog clears out after 14z with VFR conditions
and light winds expected through the day. Southerly flow will
develop by the afternoon hours as the southerly seabreeze makes
inland progress.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
No major changes to the forecast as light and variable winds are
expected through the early morning. Winds will then shift to the
east and southeasterly allowing for a brief period of onshore flow
this afternoon. Winds once again go light and variable overnight,
with a east and south east flow regime taking over on Friday and
continuing into the weekend. With a strong pressure gradient
developing, and the combination of the Atlantic Seabreeze, expect
cautionary/advisory level conditions to develop for the weekend.
The strongest winds are likely to be in the overnight and early
morning hours as the easterly surges from the Atlantic seabreeze
pass through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Light westerly and northwest are expected today with winds becoming
southerly across Florida and into southern AL/GA as the seabreeze
develops and moves inland in the afternoon. Dispersions will be
similar to Wednesday, but greater mixing potential is expected along
with warmer temperatures. Atmospheric stability will be a little
lower this afternoon compared to Wednesday so would not be surprised
for dispersions to verify a little higher than forecast today. Dry
conditions are expected again, and through the upcoming weekend.
Prevailing winds will increase Friday and into the weekend as an
east and southeasterly flow regime develops. This will likely bring
nocturnal increases in winds in the overnight hours. The only fire
weather concerns through the period will be high dispersions on
Friday and a period of higher dispersions over the weekend along
conditions continuing to dry out. No appreciable rainfall is
expected for at least the next 5 days, and possibly extending into
much of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Little to rain is forecast for the period, which means the only
hydrology concerns are with the ongoing riverine flooding. Minor
flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee, the lower
Withlacoochee, the Aucilla, and the St. Marks Rivers. The Aucilla
and St. Marks continue to fall and should exit flood stage in the
next 1 to 2 days. On the Suwannee, the flood wave is now near
Branford and will continue to move downstream over the next 5 to 7
days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 85 61 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 80 63 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 84 61 87 65 / 10 0 0 0
Albany 83 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 84 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 85 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 64 77 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...KR
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 250543
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
143 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Mid-lvl ridging over the Central US will gradually shift east through the
late week period resulting in continued dynamic subsidence and
reinforcement of the dry and stable airmass over SFL. At the surface
initially weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will prevail today,
with the weak gradient favoring a sea-breeze driven wind regime.
High temperatures will remain seasonable, ranging from the lower 80s
near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over the west coast/Interior.
An isolated shower or two can't be totally ruled out over the Interior
this afternoon near the maximum sea-breeze convergence zone, but given
the dry mid-lvls suspect most updrafts will struggle to break the cap,
and therefore any cumulus buildups remain shallow. Given the light flow
and dry airmass, another seasonably cool night can be expected tonight
with lows generally in the 60s... certainly welcome for late April.
On Friday the earlier weak Atlantic high will be replaced by a stronger
high building southward. This tightening of the pressure gradient will
result in an increase in easterly flow and thus a weakening of the Gulf
breeze circulation. Temperatures will remain similar over the east coast
(although dewpoints will slightly increase), but slightly increase over
the western half of the area, but should remain seasonable overall. Given
the continued influence of mid-lvl ridging rainfall is once again not
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Mid-lvl ridging will establish itself over the eastern CONUS this weekend
into early next week, displacing the storm track well north of the area.
At the surface (initially strong) high pressure over the western Atlantic
will be the main feature of interest supporting breezy easterly winds
through the period, although the high will gradually be weakening into
next week. Generally dry conditions will prevail given the influence of
the ridge, although some shallow coastal convergence generated showers
can't be ruled out over the east coast and Atlantic waters. Temperatures
will be characteristic of a strong easterly regime with the warmest
highs (generally upper 80s) over the Interior/west coast with cooler
highs (generally low to mid 80s) over the east coast. The reverse will
be true with overnight lows with milder readings (low 70s) over the east
coast and 60s over the Interior/west coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. Winds generally light/vrb overnight, BCMG E/ENE around 10
kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Generally benign conditions are expected today as light easterly flow
prevails over the area. Easterly winds and seas will increase Friday
into the weekend as strong high pressure north of the area builds
southward.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
There will be a high risk of rip currents over the Palm Beach coastline
today, with a moderate risk over the remainder of the east coast beaches.
The rip current risk will increase to high over all the east coast Friday into the
weekend as easterly flow increases.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
The dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week over
portions of Interior and SW Florida as generally easterly flow continues
to prevail. Minimum RHs below 40% can be expected over these portions of
the area through Friday, with localized values approaching 35% this
afternoon. Although fuels will remain dry (the Significant Fire Potential
Forecast remains in the orange category), winds should remain below fire
weather headline criteria through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 82 70 82 73 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 83 65 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 83 68 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 82 68 82 71 / 0 10 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 81 70 80 73 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 81 70 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 84 69 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 81 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 82 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 85 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...SRB
