fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 240136
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
836 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Morning Dense Fog Potential through Wednesday
- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday
- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious
with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas
&&
.UPDATE...
Only adjustments were to include widespread dense fog conditions
over inland areas west of I-95 from US-17 westward as cool northeast
flow behind a cold front sinking into central FL provides low level
moisture and under clear skies and calm winds away from the coast
will setup areas of fog becoming widespread and dense fog Advisory
conditions still seem on track late tonight as visibility may lower
to a quarter mile or less for inland locations starting across SE GA
and developing into inland NE FL. Give yourself extra time on the
roads and use your low beam headlights if you plan on traveling
early Monday morning. Patchy fog has been placed along the coast
starting around 4-5AM as northeast winds 4-8 mph delay significant
fog from the coast until the predawn hours. Lows will be in the low
to mid 50s over SE GA and upper 50s over NE FL with low 60s along
the coast.
Monday will be dry with northeast winds turning easterly 10-15 mph
at the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph and 5-10 mph inland in the
afternoon as high pressure to the north moves more NNE of the area
to the Mid Atlantic coast. Clockwise flow will produce some Atlantic
stratocumulus clouds shifting into the waters and near the coast in
the afternoon and a quick shower or two may drift onshore before
sunset. Otherwise highs will be above normal in the upper 70s over
inland SE GA and the lower 80s over inland NE FL west of the St
Johns river with cooler mid 70s along the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
This afternoon, weak frontal boundary across the central parts
of the area with sufficient moisture for plenty of cumulus clouds
over northeast FL. Multiple runs of the HRRR and other guidance
suggest isolated to potentially scattered showers forming over
inland northeast FL along and ahead of the front, with main forcing
low level convergence with a weak area of low pres forming around
Lake City. Model sounding showed MLCAPE of about 1200 J/kg this
afternoon, but given the amount of dry air aloft and relatively weak
dynamic forcing, chance of a thunderstorms seems less than about 10
percent. Max temps into the upper 70s to lower 80s today with
possible record at CRG where the current record is 83 in 2013.
Low level winds turn to the northeast along the coast this afternoon
which will likely re-prime portions of the area for moisture and
thereby potential fog development later tonight.
For tonight, the front will move south of the area and high pressure
will build to the north. We should see the surface winds decrease
from the northeast to 5 mph or less. Skies will be mostly clear and
with the dry air aloft and the light to calm winds, fog potential
will increase after midnight. For the inland areas, at least areas
of fog are expected through sunrise Monday Morning, with dense fog
advisories possible once again. Low temps in the lower 50s across
inland SE GA and mid/upper 50s across inland NE FL and lower 60s
along the Atlantic Coastal areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds over the eastern seaboard of the CONUS at the
start of the new week as the frontal boundary from Sunday will be
south of the local area. Northeasterly flow develops across coastal
locations with around 10 to 15 mph. Along inland locations easterly
flow will be present with winds around 5 to 10 mph, with decreasing
winds the further away from the east coast. Very low chances of
showers across north central FL through the day as dry air continues
to filter in from the northwest. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, lower temps along coastal locations in the mid 70s. By
the overnight hours Lows will dip to the upper 50s across inland
locations and the lower 60s along the coast. Some offshore showers
may be possible during the overnight hours along the frontal
boundary.
By Tuesday, the high pressure to the north will begin to shift
towards the Atlantic as another frontal boundary will begin to move
towards the SE CONUS, nearing SE GA by the overnight hours. The
departing high pressure will bring about a shift in the wind flow
from northeasterly to a more southeast-southerly flow and then
finally southwesterly by Tuesday night. A bit warmer temperatures on
Tuesday as winds shift to become southerly. Daytime highs in the
lower to mid 80s over inland locations with upper 70s to lower 80s
along the coast. Overnight lows will be similar to Monday night,
with upper 50s for inland locations and lower 60s along the coast.
Weakening winds and low level moisture will likely see fog develop
over inland locations during the early hours each morning. The
developing southwesterly flow Tuesday evening will likely bring the
higher chances of fog development over NE FL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area by Wednesday. Isolated to
scattered showers and isolated storms may develop ahead and along
the front as it enters SE GA and towards the FL/GA state line by the
afternoon hours into early evening hours. As much of the area will
still be in front of the front on Wednesday, daytime highs will
primarily be in the lower to mid 80s, with upper 70s along far
inland SE GA. Come Thursday and Friday, temperatures will top out in
the 60s with cooler temperatures on Friday as a high pressure and a
cold, dry air mass builds in behind the front. Breezier conditions
develop on Thursday and Friday as northwesterly winds reach around
10 to 15 mph across inland locations and gusts up to 25-30 mph over
the local waters. Overnight lows will dip to near freezing across
inland SE GA Thursday night, but frost development will likely be
limited due to the light breeze over the area. Overnight lows will
'warm' a bit on Friday night, but still remain in the upper 30s
along inland SE GA and the 40s along inland NE FL. Winds will begin
shift to become northeasterly to easterly by the upcoming weekend
as the high pressure shift away towards the Atlantic. Dry conditions
will continue into the start of the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
The 00Z TAF period will begin will VFR conditions with scattered
ceilings near 1.0 kft at SSI brushing onshore through 03Z as winds
from the northeast off the waters behind the cold front moving into
north central FL sinks southward. Later tonight, low stratus and fog
developing inland from the coast as winds from the northeast slacken
to near calm by 06Z and under clear skies support MVFR fog/IFR
ceilings to develop. The low stratus and fog will lower between 07-
09Z from IFR to VLIFR levels at inland sites VQQ, GNV, and even JAX,
then shift towards the coast by 09Z-10Z where IFR/LIFR ceilings and
fog will be more intermittent as northeast winds continue overnight
just under 5 knots.
The fog should begin lifting inland to MVFR levels after 13Z and
rise back to VFR by 15Z at all sites. High pressure to the north
will shift eastward with winds turning more easterly during in the
afternoon 5-8 knots inland/8-10 knots coast with scattered high thin
clouds passing in from the west and few low/mid level clouds near
5.0 kft.
&&
.MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will push south across the local waters
tonight. High pressure system will then build north of the region
tonight into Monday, resulting in breezy onshore winds. The high
builds east of the Atlantic coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front
approaches from the west. The front will press south of the local
waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north
winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday
NE FL Moderate Monday
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY...
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES RESUME OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
Cold front will continue to press towards Northeast Florida this
afternoon with northwest winds 5-10 mph as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. High pressure will be north of the area Monday
and shift off the Mid Atlantic coast by Monday evening, leading to
the northeasterly winds turning easterly by the afternoon hours.
High pressure will exit northeast of the region Tuesday with a warm
front lifting north across the area allowing winds to become
southerly, but no rain expected. A cold front will approach from the
northwest on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and then push through
the area late Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and
isolated T'storms over Southeast GA, but with swift enough movement
to prevent a wetting rainfall. Increasing southwesterly surface and
transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions
Wednesday.
A much drier airmass arrives for the end of the week as strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest that will place critically low
Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog will develop
tonight away from the coast as the cold front slowly shifts south of
the area. Patchy fog will remain possible across NE FL both Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...
SUN 11/23 MON 11/24 TUE 11/25 WED 11/26
Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1992 86/2014 85/1992 84/1946
Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/2013 84/2014 83/1992 83/2020
Gainesville, FL (GNV) 88/1906 86/1948 85/1955 84/1973
Alma, Georgia (AMG) 84/1941 83/1986 83/1986 84/1973
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG 52 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 59 74 62 76 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 57 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 63 78 63 81 / 0 10 10 0
GNV 58 82 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 60 81 59 84 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 232328
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
628 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
- Isolated showers are possible through at least Monday as a weak
front stalls over the area; for many locations, mostly dry and
warm conditions will persist through mid week
- A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, ushering in
cooler than normal temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Now-Tonight...Light winds are veering north-northwest this afternoon
as low-level moisture gradually increases, evidenced by satellite
and recent observations. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the
development of an east coast breeze late this afternoon, pushing
inland through the evening. This feature, along with an approaching
front and increased moisture focused below 700mb, could be enough to
spark isolated showers. Light QPF is anticipated, though some CAMs
put down a quick 0.25" from Titusville to Melbourne through
midnight. Probabilities of these locally higher amounts occurring are
around 10-25%. For many locations, dry weather will prevail into
tonight as the front stalls over central Florida. The chance for
light showers or sprinkles continues into early Monday morning as
temperatures settle into the 60s. Some lower clouds are forecast to
build overhead tonight, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out over far
interior locations (namely Lake/Osceola counties) through sunrise.
Monday-Tuesday...A stout dry 700-500mb layer will persist through
Tuesday with modest moisture lingering above and below these levels.
Northwest flow aloft quickly backs to the west-southwest Monday
night into Tuesday as a 500mb ridge axis moves overhead. At the
surface, a stationary front is forecast to linger over the southern
half of the area, until lifting north as a warm front Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Low confidence exists in sprinkles/showers
occurring beyond Monday evening, though it would not be a surprise
to see a few onshore-moving showers brush the coast through
Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs Monday will remain above normal
in the upper 70s to low 80s, warming a bit on Tuesday to the low
and middle 80s areawide. Morning lows are forecast to range from
the low/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s along the Treasure
Coast.
Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Large scale trough aloft will
shift eastward from the central to eastern U.S., which will weaken
the mid level ridge across the region and lead to H5 height falls
Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time, a stronger cold front is
forecast to move through the area. Low rain chances (15-25%) with a
slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast, well south
and east of Orlando Wednesday-Thursday, as the front approaches and
moves through. Drier air will filter in behind the front, ending
rain chances by Thursday night. High pressure building in will
quickly lead to a breezy onshore flow into the weekend, which will
gradually increase moisture and should also lead to an increase in
onshore moving showers.
The short-lived warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 80s ahead of the approaching front. As the cold front
crosses the area, highs on Thanksgiving are forecast to fall to the
low to mid 70s near to north of Orlando, and in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees south. North-northeast winds will continue to allow
max temps to drop into Friday, ranging from the upper 60s across
Volusia County and low to mid 70s farther south and inland. Lows
will fall into the 50s and low 60s Thursday night and Friday night,
with even colder temps in the mid to upper 40s northwest of I-4
early Friday morning. The developing onshore breeze into next
weekend will lead to a gradual rise in temps, with highs still in
the 70s and overnight lows back into the 60s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Winds around 10 kt or less turn northeast into Monday, increasing
Monday evening and night to 10-15 kt from the east-southeast. A
stalled front and sufficient moisture in place will provide the
opportunity for isolated showers through at least Tuesday morning.
Wave heights generally remain 2-3 ft, though offshore seas briefly
build to 4 ft Monday night into Tuesday morning. The remnant front
lifts north of the waters mid week as a warm front with winds
generally out of the south-southeast.
A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, building winds and
seas from north to south. Hazardous boating conditions are
anticipated from this point forward and continuing through at least
Saturday. Seas (as of now) look to reach 5 to 8 ft on late Thursday
into Friday, continuing into Saturday around 5 to 7 ft. Northerly
winds 15-20 kt veer northeast 20-25 kt Friday, turning easterly on
Saturday.
Isolated showers are possible over the waters (especially the Gulf
Stream) with a low chance of a lightning storm south of Cape
Canaveral Wednesday through early Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 627 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Sea breeze pushing slowly into central FL early this evening.
Isolated shower activity across the I-4 corridor with this trend
sliding south/east thru the night. Light winds tonight. Will need
to monitor for late night/early Mon morning fog/low stratus
potential. Highest confidence for anything across interior TAF
sites (MCO/SFB/ISM/LEE) - though models remain inconsistent. IFR
conds are possible and amendments will be made as necessary.
Morning fog/stratus, of what develops, will dissipate thru the
daylight morning hours. Light onshore flow during the day on Mon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 79 64 81 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 65 82 64 84 / 20 0 0 0
MLB 66 80 66 81 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 65 81 65 82 / 20 20 10 10
LEE 63 81 62 83 / 20 0 0 0
SFB 64 81 64 84 / 20 10 0 0
ORL 65 81 64 83 / 20 0 0 0
FPR 64 81 65 82 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Sedlock
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 232310
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
510 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 504 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
- Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening near and west of the I-65
corridor.
- A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the
marine area Wednesday night through Thursday morning,
potentially lingering into late week for the offshore waters.
- A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Dry conditions are expected over the area through Monday while an
active pattern begins to unfold over the western and central
states. An upper low near the 4 Corners evolves into an upper trof
over the southern and central Plains on Monday, then ejects off
across the interior eastern states through Tuesday while a
Canadian system leads to a large upper trof developing over the
central states. The upper trof progresses across the eastern
states with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a strong
cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Ahead of the frontal passage, the Plains system
which ejects off into the eastern states appears to bring a region
of weak to possibly moderate deep layer lift across the
northwestern half of the forecast area on Tuesday, potentially
into the evening hours. The 850 mb jet will initially be 30-40
knots over this portion early Tuesday morning but then diminishes
to around 20 knots by the early afternoon. While MLCAPE values
increase to 500-1000 J/kg on Tuesday for much of the area,
potentially around 1000 J/kg over southeast MS and interior
southwest AL, the timing of the best instability occurs when shear
values are diminishing fairly significantly.
This appears to diminish the potential for strong to severe storm
development, but considering the uncertainty with the pattern will
maintain current messaging in the Key Messages. High rain chances
shift across the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
front approaches then moves through. Have gone with slight chance
to chance pops on Wednesday generally along and east of I-65, then
dry conditions follow for Thursday through Saturday. A large
positively tilted upper trof evolves over the western half of the
CONUS over the weekend, with a series of shortwaves set to move
across the forecast area by Sunday along with a frontal boundary
approaching from the Plains. Will have chance pops return to the
forecast for Sunday and will monitor this upcoming system which
could eventually bring active weather to the forecast area.
Lows tonight range from around 50 well inland to the mid/upper 50s
at the coast then trend warmer for Monday night to range from the
upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Much cooler
temperatures follow for Wednesday night and Thursday night in the
wake of the cold front, with lows Thursday night ranging from the
lower 30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. Temperatures
moderate by Saturday night to range from the mid/upper 40s well
inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Monday and Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80, then trend much cooler by
Thanksgiving Day to range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to
the lower 60s closer to the coast. Daytime highs moderate to the
upper 60s to lower 70s by Sunday. A low risk of rip currents on
Monday will be followed by a moderate risk for Tuesday and
Wednesday, then a low risk follows for Thursday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Generally VFR conditions prevail outside of a low level stratus
deck that is currently situated along the I-65 corridor from
Mobile County northeast through Conecuh and Monroe Counties. This
area of low stratus will bring IFR ceilings as it continues to
slowly sag southward, likely affecting the Mobile TAF sites over
the next half hour to an hour. The expectation is for this to
continue to gradually erode from the north and sag southward,
eventually giving way to VFR flight category once again for the
area by mid to late evening. It is uncertain if this stratus deck
will reach the the other TAF sites at this time which may
necessitate some amendments to the current forecast over the
coming hours. The rest of the night should feature mostly VFR
flight category unless a couple of the favored low spots can
manage some patch fog development. Winds shift back to southerly
at around 5 knots by mid morning Monday. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Light northerly winds become southeasterly on Monday with a light to
moderate southerly flow following for Tuesday. Winds shift out of
the northwest to north on Wednesday as a cold front moves through
with a moderate to strong offshore flow for Wednesday night through
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for
most of the marine area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and
may potentially be needed for the 20-60 nm portion Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 53 77 64 79 / 0 0 20 50
Pensacola 58 76 67 78 / 0 0 20 30
Destin 59 75 66 76 / 0 0 30 20
Evergreen 50 80 60 81 / 0 0 20 50
Waynesboro 49 77 60 78 / 0 0 40 90
Camden 49 78 58 79 / 0 0 20 70
Crestview 50 78 61 79 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 240102
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
802 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog tonight from around Tampa Bay northward
across the Nature Coast
- Patchy dense late night and early morning fog each day from
Tuesday through Thursday.
- Cooler and drier conditions late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
An area of fog and low clouds that was lingering off the Nature
Coast this afternoon has begun to move inland and push southward.
On land the majority of this is low clouds for now with the fog
mainly over the nearshore waters. However, as the night progresses
expect to see the clouds lower with fog, some dense, setting up
from around the Tampa Bay and Interstate 4 corridor northward
into Citrus County. There is a northeast surge moving through
northeast and east central Florida at this time with a few light
showers popping up along and behind it. This should weaken as it
moves into our region overnight, but could help prevent the fog
from getting too thick over the interior parts of the Nature Coast
and central Florida. Meanwhile further south, do expect to see
some more patchy to areas of fog develop late tonight. All of this
fog and low clouds should lift and dissipate during mid-morning
Monday with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the rest of the day
and could see a few sprinkles pop up during the afternoon and
early evening here and there. Have adjusted forecast to account
for the expected fog tonight into early Monday, otherwise
remainder of forecast looks on track at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Low clouds and fog are making progress southward into the Tampa
Bay area this evening and expect IFR/LIFR conditions to setup for
much of the night around TPA and PIE, and eventually reaching LAL.
Other TAF sites across the region should see some MVFR/local IFR
conditions later tonight into early Monday morning. VFR conditions
should return by late morning Monday and continue into early
Monday night. Light northwest winds this evening will become light
and variable overnight then increase out of the east at 4 to 8
knots by late Monday morning. Will see a shift to west and
northwest at TPA, PIE, and SRQ during the mid to late afternoon as
the sea breeze develops.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard to move into the W Atlantic
tonight with the weak surface front lagging behind upper support
to sag over the FL Peninsula and stalling tonight. Expect another
night of patchy dense fog and low clouds after midnight especially
along and S of the frontal boundary with best moisture pooling.
Brief ridging to nudge into the region from the N Carib Monday as
the front moves back north as a warm front and washes out into
Monday night with most dense fog and low clouds reforming into
Tuesday morning. Winds will veer to the southeast on Tuesday as
surface high pressure over the western Atlantic retreats from the
region as warm and humid conditions continue.
Upper longwave trough to move through the Central U.S, bringing a
strong but mainly dry cold front across west central and SW FL
late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Behind the front a fast moving
high pressure center dropping out of Canada will bring a much
cooler and drier airmass across the region to end the week into
next weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain light as a weak cold front
continues to sink south across the E Gulf waters tonight with
winds becoming north to northwest. High pressure will build back
over the waters on Monday with winds shifting easterly through
Tuesday. A stronger but dry cold front will move across the
waters mid week. Winds/seas will quickly increase in the wake of
the cold front Thursday with cautionary levels likely...and may
approach advisory levels on portions of the waters Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions will continue into mid week with
generally light winds and patchy late night and early morning
dense fog possible. Light winds may lead to poor dispersion across
portions of west central and southwest Florida as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 64 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 64 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 59 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 68 82 68 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Tampa Bay waters.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 240126
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
826 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 826 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
- There is a medium to high chance (50-70%) of patchy to areas of dense
fog Monday morning, especially across the Florida Big Bend.
- Rain chances for Wednesday remain between 40-60%, with the
highest chances across Southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle before tapering the more east you go.
- Fire Weather concerns increase Thanksgiving Day and Friday with
low relative humidity and ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
The forecast has been updated to show current temperature and dew
point trends. Fog is expected again this evening through the
overnight hours. Dense Fog advisories are likely tonight for the
Florida Big Bend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Fog season continues with another round of fog anticipated tonight,
especially across the Florida Big Bend and along Apalachee Bay. High
pressure in control at the surface and aloft will keep the area dry
and warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday afternoon
after starting off the day in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Winds turn more southerly Tuesday, pushing surface moisture back
into the area. This should lead to another round of fog Monday night
into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold
front. A few showers are expected across our far western counties
Tuesday thanks to Warm Air Advection (WAA) and a bit of a Low-Level
Jet (LLJ) at 850mb. Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually shift
east Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best lift remains well
northwest and north of the area and will be pulling away Tuesday
night into Wednesday. As a result, the best chance for rain will be
along and west of a line from Panama City, FL to Albany, GA with
rain chances tapering to less than 20 percent across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend. As mentioned in the previous discussions, we'll be
underneath the right entrance region of an H5 jet and there will be
25-30 knots of Bulk Shear. However, the better instability and
synoptic forcing will be moving well north of the area, so there's
not much overlap. Mesoscale diurnal instability may be able to
overcome some of these limiting factors, if we see mostly clear
skies on Wednesday. However, if we're under extensive cloud cover,
or dense fog that lasts well into the late morning hours, then our
chances of seeing storms would be very low.
A cooler and drier airmass arrives following the front Wednesday
night into Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to remain in the 60s
Thanksgiving Day, Friday, and Saturday with overnight lows in the
30s Friday and Saturday mornings. A few locations may flirt with
freezing Friday and/or Saturday morning in our traditionally cooler
spots, but no (Hard) Freeze products appear necessary at this time.
A bit of wind Thursday night into Friday morning will create Wind
Chill values, or feels-like temperatures, near 30.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
A cold front is passing through the region today through the rest
of this evening. However, there will still be enough moisture for
fog to develop once again tonight, mainly affecting the FL
Panhandle and Big Bend regions. TLH will be the terminal with the
highest chance of experiencing IFR/LIFR vsbys and cigs. ECP and
VLD have about equal chances for IFR cigs. ABY may see lowered
vsbys but is expected to be limited to MVFR, however may briefly
be in IFR. DHN should hopefully remain VFR through the TAF period.
During the day Monday, the cold front will return as a warm front
and winds will become southeasterly for our western terminals
later in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 826 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Another night/early morning fog is expected to develop over the
nearshore waters of Apalachee Bay. The long awaited cold front
should finally push through and clear that away by mid/late
morning. Winds will clock around to easterly by the early
afternoon on Monday, at around 5-10 kts. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds develop Tuesday ahead of an incoming cold front
that will bring a few showers and storms to the northeastern Gulf
on Wednesday. Northerly winds near Advisory level develop
following the front Wednesday night into Thanksgiving.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
High pressure over the area keeps us dry again Monday. Southerly
flow ahead of an advancing cold front develops Tuesday. A few
showers are forecast Tuesday afternoon for the western Florida
Panhandle and western portions of southeastern Alabama before
spreading eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the cold
front. Chances for a wetting rain are medium to high (50-70 percent)
for a line along and west of Panama City, FL to Albany, GA and low
to medium (10-50 percent) east of that line with lower chances the
more south and east you go. Much drier air filters in behind the
front for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, sending MinRH values to
between 20-30 percent away from the immediate coast. There is a low
(10 percent) chance of winds exceeding 15 mph Thursday, so there is
the potential for Critical Fire Weather conditions on Thanksgiving;
of course, that will largely depend on how much rain there is
Tuesday night into Wednesday and where it falls.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Rain remains in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a
cold front. The axis for the heaviest rain should remain northwest
of our area, but those along and west of a line from Panama City, FL
to Albany, GA stand the best chance (50-70 percent) at seeing
rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25". Some reasonable high-end
chances (or 10 percent change of occurring) are around 1.0" to 1.5".
Rainfall totals east of that line are generally forecast to be less
than 0.10".
While flooding is not anticipated with those rainfall amounts, some
ponding or localized street flooding may occur due to clogged drains
from all the leaves on the ground.
As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has
the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in
Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the
drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter
that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in
Exceptional Drought.
For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 58 78 64 78 / 0 0 10 10
Dothan 53 80 59 81 / 0 0 20 10
Albany 54 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 55 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 57 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 61 73 65 75 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 232241
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
541 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
- Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place across South
Florida into early this upcoming week.
- Patchy to areas of dense fog is possible early Monday
morning, mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as
interior Southwest Florida.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Looking at the latest probabilistic data, decided to put areas of
fog west of the lake and over inland SW FL early Monday morning,
with patchy fog over most of the rest of inland South FL. Too
early to determine if any headlines or special weather statements
may be needed early in the morning, but that will be monitored
closely overnight. Otherwise, the rest of the short and long term
forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Sensible weather conditions across South Florida will generally
remain unchanged through the short term period, despite the gradual
approach of a weak frontal boundary currently draped over the
southeast CONUS. The boundary is forecast to stall out somewhere
over northern/central Florida as we head into the new week.
Nevertheless, the main impact of this frontal approach will be a
brief wind shift from the north/northeast expected today. However,
with ridging prevailing aloft and meager moisture along the
atmospheric column ahead of the front, chances for any convection
associated with this boundary will remain very low. Additionally,
despite the brief northerly wind shift, the cooler airmass will not
reach our area, and temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the
low-mid 80s this afternoon. Winds veer back fro the east-northeast
on Monday, and the dry and warm pattern will continue.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Ridging will become re-established over the first half of the week
as the surface high over the western Atlantic builds back over the
Florida peninsula. This will usher in the return of easterly flow
and a slight uptick in moisture (up to 1.0-1.3 inches over the first
half of the week). This could result in slightly warmer feels-like
temperatures each afternoon; with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s each day, the apparent temperatures could start
approaching the low 90s by Wednesday afternoon.
As we head into the long holiday weekend, a stout upper level trough
will develop over the Great Lakes region, spawning a strong surface
low and associated cold front which will sweep across the nation and
south across the Florida peninsula sometime between Friday and
Saturday. There is some divergence regarding timing in the ensemble
envelope, with the european ensembles favoring a faster progression,
and the GFS looking at a slower evolution. We will continue to
monitor those differences as we near the end of the week.
With enough moisture pooled over the region ahead of this front,
this could mean a general increase in the chances for rain starting
on Thursday and continuing through the end of the period, with PoPs
in the 20-40% range each day. Temperatures could also drop slightly
over the weekend once the cooler airmass moves over the area, with
highs in the high 70s and lows in the mid 60s and low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Light and variable winds overnight into early Monday morning.
Patchy fog over inland areas early in the morning. May impact APF,
placed a tempo from 09-12Z for lowered visibilities. Winds become
ENE 5-10 kts after 15Z, with an afternoon Gulf breeze expected at
APF.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Light northerly breeze will develop later today with a weak boundary
approaching. Easterly flow will becoming re-established on Monday.
Seas will remain in the 1-3 feet range. Winds and seas could build
as a stronger boundary approaches later in the week, but timing and
intensity remain somewhat uncertain at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 69 83 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
West Kendall 64 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 68 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 67 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 68 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 69 82 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
Pembroke Pines 67 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 68 82 70 84 / 0 10 0 0
Boca Raton 68 83 71 84 / 0 10 0 0
Naples 66 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
