fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 080033
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
833 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Forecast on track as the last of the sea breeze merger takes place
across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL,
where just a few showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible until midnight, otherwise expect seasonable low temps in
the middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic
Coast under fair skies.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Scattered showers are currently moving through the area early this
afternoon in a southwest to northeast direction thanks to the
predominantly southwesterly flow. Activity will primarily be
focused for locations along the I-10 corridor and into SE GA, with
some activity during the mid afternoon hours along north central
FL as the Gulf sea breeze makes its way inland. With PWATs
currently around 2", there is potential for heavy rainfall with
any showers or storms that develop. Slow moving or training
showers/storms may cause for some localized flooding for low-lying
areas and those locations which have had seen a good amount of
rainfall during the past couple of days. Activity should begin to
dwindle during the early evening hours as showers/storms move
offshore. Highs for this afternoon will be in the lower 90s across
NE FL and coastal locations with SE GA primarily in the mid 90s.
Lows in the 70s area wide during the overnight hours into Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Weak west and southwest deep layer flow remains over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday, with a sfc ridge axis in fairly typical
place in summertime over central FL or south central FL. PWATs
remain elevated both days at close to 1.7 to 2 inches on Tuesday
and 1.8 to 2.2 inches on Wednesday. The pattern will favor initial
convection firing along the west coast sea breeze early in the
day and progressing slowly eastward and increasing in coverage
during the afternoon and early evening. Some stronger storms
possible central and east parts of the forecast area given the
pattern. Will probably lean toward 50-70 percent coverage on
Tuesday and then nudging up POPs Wednesday a bit given the PWATs
will be higher with nearly all guidance favoring more QPF for the
Wednesday period. While temps aloft today are on the warm side
with 500 mb at -6C, temps aloft cool gradually Tue-Wed as weak mid
level disturbances affect the area. This should result in stronger
daytime instability and favor localized heavy rainfall, potential
for gustier winds of about 50 mph, and more frequent lightning.
Mean west- southwest flow is only 6-7 knots Tuesday, then drops
to only 3-5 knots on Wednesday which again suggests a localized
heavy rainfall/flooding threat with a quick 1-3 inches in 1 hour
possible.
Temperatures will be just at or above normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs in the 90s area-wide, even near the east coast. Lows
in the lower to mid 70s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
The mean layer flow will remain generally westerly this period with
a low to mid level ridge remaining to the south of the area across
the central Gulf and central FL. Flow may be a little stronger
Friday and Saturday as a low level trough moves into the southern
Appalachians, with a slight shift to the west- northwest by Sunday
and Monday. PWATs remain slightly above normal this period, about
1.8 to 2 inches, plus or minus a tenth or two. This will allow
for diurnal showers and storms each day, with POPs of at least
40-60 percent each day. Temperatures will be near normal to
slightly above normal, in the lower 90s with mild lows in the
70s. Heat indices of about 100-105 are likely each day,
potentially a little higher in some spots.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Convection has shifted NW of all TAF sites so far this evening and
any lingering shower chances are too low to include in the next
TAF package, so VFR conds are expected through the overnight hours
with light South to Southwest winds, which continue into the
morning hours as they shift more West to Southwest during morning
heating. Gulf coast sea breeze should develop and push inland with
some impacts to GNV by the 16-17Z time frame, while the East Coast
sea breeze will slowly push inland and start to trigger convection
in the 17-18Z time frame, with outflows and other convection
developing through the afternoon and have added in PROB30 for MVFR
TSRA activity through the 23-24Z time frame, except for SSI where
rainfall chances remain too low for PROB30 groups.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
With high pressure extending across central Florida and a surface
trough across Georgia, southwest winds will prevail with a shift
to onshore as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland each afternoon
this week. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore
of the coast in the afternoon and early evening, with a chance of
some thunderstorms capable of strong winds and frequent lightning.
Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk continues through into midweek
as long period easterly swell continue and winds shift to become onshore
each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 95 74 92 / 20 60 40 80
SSI 78 89 77 89 / 10 30 30 50
JAX 75 94 74 92 / 10 50 40 70
SGJ 75 92 75 90 / 10 50 40 60
GNV 74 93 74 92 / 10 60 40 80
OCF 73 92 73 91 / 10 50 30 80
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 080522
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
- Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy
rain will accompany the strongest storms.
- Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in
the workweek as moisture builds over Florida.
- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
breaks in the shade or A/C.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning.
This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface
Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper
heights are above normal across much of North America and the
Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over
the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the
mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture
values have dropped slightly below normal.
The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become
elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work
week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be
advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive
mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and
the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just
strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South
Florida by the weekend.
Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper
tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows
meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant
differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture
over the state from the northeast.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Today-Wednesday...
Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless,
seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the
position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should
be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the
stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak
heat indices from 100-106 deg F.
Thursday-Weekend...
A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south
to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70%
chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon,
persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some
storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat
and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as
106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the
extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions
will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient
access to air conditioning.
Early Next Week...
Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics,
with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast.
This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state,
leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and
storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the
local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant
weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating
conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the
coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and
storms are forecast.
Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3
FT.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Light and variable winds through early morning become more west-
southwest after 15Z, picking up to 5 to 10 knots. The east coast sea
breeze develops this afternoon, causing winds along the coast to
become more onshore, with VCSH possible at these terminals as it
slowly moves inland. A sea breeze collision is forecast across
central Florida late afternoon into early evening, so have gone with
VCTS starting around 20Z at the interior terminals, with TEMPOs in
at MCO, ISM, and SFB between 22 and 01Z for reduced VIS/CIGs due to
TSRA. Some pushback towards the coast, particularly from MLB
southward, cannot be ruled out, so have VCTS at these terminals
through late afternoon and early evening as well. As activity
diminishes after 02Z, winds become light once more overnight,
predominantly out of the south.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 89 75 / 50 40 50 20
MCO 94 76 92 76 / 60 40 60 20
MLB 90 76 89 76 / 40 30 50 20
VRB 91 72 90 73 / 40 20 50 20
LEE 91 76 91 76 / 50 30 60 20
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
ORL 93 77 92 76 / 60 40 60 20
FPR 90 73 89 73 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil
FXUS62 KMLB 080523
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
123 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
- Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy
rain will accompany the strongest storms.
- Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in
the workweek as moisture builds over Florida.
- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
breaks in the shade or A/C.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning.
This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface
Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper
heights are above normal across much of North America and the
Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over
the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the
mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture
values have dropped slightly below normal.
The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become
elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work
week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be
advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive
mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and
the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just
strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South
Florida by the weekend.
Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper
tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows
meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant
differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture
over the state from the northeast.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Today-Wednesday...
Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless,
seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the
position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should
be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the
stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak
heat indices from 100-106 deg F.
Thursday-Weekend...
A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south
to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70%
chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon,
persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some
storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat
and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as
106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the
extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions
will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient
access to air conditioning.
Early Next Week...
Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics,
with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast.
This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state,
leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and
storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the
local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant
weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating
conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the
coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and
storms are forecast.
Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3
FT.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Light and variable winds through early morning become more west-
southwest after 15Z, picking up to 5 to 10 knots. The east coast sea
breeze develops this afternoon, causing winds along the coast to
become more onshore, with VCSH possible at these terminals as it
slowly moves inland. A sea breeze collision is forecast across
central Florida late afternoon into early evening, so have gone with
VCTS starting around 20Z at the interior terminals, with TEMPOs in
at MCO, ISM, and SFB between 22 and 01Z for reduced VIS/CIGs due to
TSRA. Some pushback towards the coast, particularly from MLB
southward, cannot be ruled out, so have VCTS at these terminals
through late afternoon and early evening as well. As activity
diminishes after 02Z, winds become light once more overnight,
predominantly out of the south.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 89 75 / 50 40 50 20
MCO 94 76 92 76 / 60 40 60 20
MLB 90 76 89 76 / 40 30 50 20
VRB 91 72 90 73 / 40 20 50 20
LEE 91 76 91 76 / 50 30 60 20
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
ORL 93 77 92 76 / 60 40 60 20
FPR 90 73 89 73 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Tollefsen
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 072326
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
A weak upper low centered just off the Louisiana coast breaks down
to a weak upper trof before moving into eastern Texas Tuesday
night. An upper ridge meanwhile builds across the southeast
states then gradually weakens Wednesday into Friday as an upper
trof slowly progresses across the interior eastern states. A
surface ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf through the
week, and into the weekend as well, and promotes a light
southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Am anticipating a
diurnal convective cycle to continue, with a trend towards
increasing coverage through Friday as the upper ridge building
into the area proves temporary and will be followed by increasing
deep layer moisture and a series of shortwaves moving across the
area. Will have chance pops on Tuesday trending to likely to
categorical pops by Friday. Likely pops follow for Saturday, then
expect good chance to likely pops for Sunday and Monday as
abundant deep layer moisture remains in place along with a series
of gradually weaker shortwaves set to move across the area. Will
need to monitor for heat index concerns from Thursday through
Monday for heat index values of mostly 102-107, though some
locations look to reach 109 on Sunday and Monday, exceeding Heat
Advisory criteria of 108. Some strong storms will be possible each
day with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A low risk of
rip currents is anticipated through Friday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Lingering isolated showers and storms across the area will
continue to dissipate over the next couple hours. Another round
of isolated to scattered storms will develop Tuesday afternoon.
Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. Light westerly flow tonight will become
southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
No impacts anticipated other than higher winds and seas
near storms. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 92 73 93 74 92 74 92 / 10 30 10 60 30 70 30 80
Pensacola 77 92 77 92 77 92 78 91 / 10 30 10 50 30 60 30 70
Destin 79 92 80 92 80 92 80 92 / 10 30 20 50 30 60 30 60
Evergreen 72 94 72 95 72 93 73 92 / 10 30 10 50 20 60 30 80
Waynesboro 71 94 72 93 71 93 72 93 / 20 30 10 60 20 70 20 70
Camden 73 93 73 93 72 91 72 91 / 10 30 10 50 30 70 30 70
Crestview 72 94 73 94 73 93 73 92 / 10 40 10 60 20 70 20 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 080047
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
With the ridge located over the southern Gulf and Caribbean, the
southwesterly flow regime will push the remaining and dissipating,
scattered, inland storms to the east coast. Tomorrow, conditions
are similarly anticipated; storms will develop along the west
coast in the late morning and early afternoon and migrate eastward
as the day progresses. This flow will become more neutral as the
ridge meanders northward, resulting in scattered to numerous
showers more centrally concentrated and stagnant within the state.
With that in mind, rain accumulation has more localized
potential. While POPs will broadly remain moderate, models
indicate that they will be lower than previously. As for daytime
temperatures, they will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Presence of a southwesterly flow has migrated the showers inland
for this evening. For Tomorrow, this seabreeze regime has a VCTS
input in the later afternoon for inland LAL and our airports in
the southern forecast area. Winds will remain from a broadly southwesterly
direction at or below 10 kts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Ridging continues to sit to our south giving us our southwesterly
flow. This will result in onshore flow continuing with morning
showers along the coast that will move inland in the afternoon and
eventually head to the east coast in the evening. This will continue
for our Tuesday.
By Wednesday the ridge looks to lift slightly north and stall
overhead. This will give us a neutral flow regime. In this regime
we typically see the highest concentration of storms along the
west coast in the late afternoon and evening. The main hazard with
this regime is the light flow will cause storms to be very slow
moving which could result in some localized flooding each day.
This pattern looks to stay in place at least through the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Ridging to our south will continue our SW flow through
Tuesday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. We will also continue
to see our overnight and early morning shower activity over the
water. Ridging will shift north on Wednesday and stall overnight.
This will give us a light and variable flow with winds around 5
knots through the rest of the week. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 20 60
FMY 77 93 76 93 / 10 50 30 60
GIF 76 93 76 93 / 10 50 20 60
SRQ 78 90 76 91 / 10 30 20 50
BKV 73 92 73 92 / 10 40 20 60
SPG 80 90 78 89 / 10 30 20 60
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Davis/Ulevicius
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 072348
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
748 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Adjusted POPs to better line up with what's going on this evening.
Showers and storms will dwindle in coverage over land through the
evening before a few showers/storms develop in our coastal waters
tonight. Otherwise, no major adjustments were made to the
forecast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Widely scattered activity this afternoon should
continue into the late afternoon before loss of instability and
abundant cloud cover brings an end to shower and thunderstorms. For
tonight, partly cloudy skies are forecast and by sunrise more
activity should be developing across the Apalachee Bay and Gulf
Coast.
For Tuesday, another round of widely scattered showers/storms are
forecast. Weak upper level trough slides east overnight and into
Tuesday afternoon and this will bring a more westerly component to
the winds. However, winds should remain light so the development of
storms will again be fairly random and along the seabreezes and
outflow boundaries from prior storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Typical summertime conditions can be expected over the next week
with weak steering flow and plenty of deep layer moisture. The sea
breeze and convective outflow boundaries will be the primary forcing
for ascent. However, a weak vort lobe and surface trough approaching
from the northwest will enhance convective coverage, which will be
diurnal in nature. Look for numerous showers and thunderstorms each
day, beginning at coastal locations in the morning, spreading inland
during the afternoon and dissipating in the evening. Temperatures
will be close to or slightly above normal with highs in the lower
to mid 90s inland and lows in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity is quickly diminishing across the
area, after which VFR conditions will prevail through the night
and into tomorrow morning. Afternoon shower and thunderstorms will
redevelop tomorrow, with the greatest coverages in the central
and eastern portions of the CWA. The only terminal restrictions
would be short-lived MVFR/IFR conditions in thunderstorms. Winds
generally remain light and out of the west/west-southwest through
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light
southwest flow which will be enhanced near the coast by the
afternoon sea breeze. Convection will be concentrated in the
morning hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Low level flow will remain light and variable, with directions
mostly influenced by nearby shower/storm activity and the Gulf
coast seabreezes, through Tuesday before becoming southwesterly by
the middle of the upcoming week. This will allow increasing
moisture throughout the Tri-State region and a return to more
summertime conditions. Meaning, highs in the 90s each day, heat
indices pushing the low to mid 100s in spots, and increasing
chances for late morning through mid evening thunderstorms.
Dispersions and transport winds appear favorable over the next few
days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Flooding is not expected, outside of local poor drainage flooding
from slow moving thunderstorms.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 94 75 93 / 30 60 20 70
Panama City 78 91 78 92 / 10 40 20 50
Dothan 74 94 75 94 / 30 40 10 50
Albany 75 95 75 95 / 20 50 20 60
Valdosta 75 94 75 93 / 20 60 30 70
Cross City 74 91 74 91 / 20 50 30 70
Apalachicola 77 88 78 89 / 20 40 20 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Reese
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Wool
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 072307
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
A slower start to afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity
across SoFlo compared to the past couple of days, but radar data
is now showing some signs of convection along the east sea breeze
boundaries. Not a lot of steering today with synoptic flow
remaining light to moderate due to mid level ridging establishing
over the region. This may result in slow- moving or even stationary
showers at times. The mid level ridge will also help in reducing
potential for strong to severe storms through the rest of this
afternoon and early evening hours, but can't rule out an isolated
strong storm or two for that time period. The bulk of any
developing showers should favor the western half of SoFlo, then a
rather quiet nighttime weather-wise should prevail.
Another warm night expected across SoFlo with overnight lows in
the mid-upper 70s near the coasts, and low-mid 70s over interior
areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Mid level ridging will continue to push over the Florida Peninsula
today as a surface area of high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic extends westward towards the area. The combination of these
two features will allow for rather light winds at the surface, and a
light steering flow aloft to start the day. This will allow the
surface wind flow to become sea breeze driven as the day
progresses and the sea breeze boundaries push inland. The sea
breeze boundaries will also be the main driver of convective
initiation today. Due to increasing subsidence as mid level
ridging strengthens over the area, this will provide some drier
air across the mid levels especially across the east coast earlier
in the day. The latest forecast model soundings show this as PWAT
values over the eastern half of the region start out between 1.5
and 1.7 inches during the morning hours before gradually rising
this afternoon. This pocket of drier air may help to delay the
start of convection today especially when compared to the past
several days. In any event, as the sea breezes push inland,
convection will gradually start to develop during the early
afternoon hours near the east coast metro areas before pushing
towards the interior and west as mid level ridging allows for the
steering flow to increase a bit out of the southeast. While strong
thunderstorm development will remain rather limited, it cannot be
completely ruled out with 500mb temperatures hovering around -7.5
to -8.5C and surface based cape generally ranging between
2500-3000 J/kg early this afternoon. When combined with DCAPE
values ranging between 850-1000 J/kg, this will be supportive of
isolated strong thunderstorm development with the strongest storms
containing gusty winds and frequent lightning. The best chance of
strong thunderstorms will remain over the interior and Lake
Okeechobee region where instability will be maximized this
afternoon along with where the sea breeze and other mesoscale
boundaries collide and interact with each other.
High temperatures this afternoon will generally range from around 90
along the east coast to the mid 90s over interior portions of
Southwest Florida. Heat index values will generally rise between 100
and 105 this afternoon, however, it is possible that some interior
locations could see peak heat index values of 105-107 degrees before
convection gets going. The latest HREF, however, only shows
probabilities around 10 percent of this occurring, so these
values will be rather short lived which will negate any need for
heat advisories today.
Heading into Tuesday, the weather pattern does not change too much
as mid level ridging holds in place over the region as South Florida
remains on the western periphery of an area of high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic. The position of the surface
ridge axis will change a bit and shift northward which will allow
for the surface wind flow to increase slightly out the east. At
the same time, the latest guidance suite continues to show signs
of a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, or TUTT slowly
approaching from the Bahamas. The latest guidance remains in good
agreement that this feature should remain to the east throughout
most of Tuesday as ridging holds strong. Convection will once
again be sea breeze driven and will develop along the sea breezes
as they push inland. With 500mb temperatures hovering generally
between -8 and -8.5C throughout most of the day combined with
rather poor lapse rates, strong thunderstorm development should
once again remain rather limited, however it cannot be entirely
ruled out. The best chances of strong thunderstorm development
will remain over the interior and Southwest Florida where
instability will be maximized and where the sea breezes and other
mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures on Tuesday will
generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the mid 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Heading into Wednesday and Thursday, the latest model guidance
remains in pretty good agreement with a rather weak Tropical Upper
Tropospheric Trough sneaking under the ridge and slowly pushing
across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, high
pressure remains firmly in place centered in the western Atlantic
and this surface ridge axis extends westward towards the region and
remains parked off just to the north. This will be supportive of
light east to southeasterly wind flow on Wednesday, and then a light
to moderate southeasterly wind flow on Thursday as high pressure
strengthens a bit and the pressure gradient across the region
slightly tightens.
While the daily diurnal convection pattern will remain in place on
both Wednesday and Thursday, the weak mid level disturbance could
provide some extra lift across the region during this time frame
which would slightly increase the potential of strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm development. As surface wind flow become more
southeasterly on Thursday, the latest guidance is also hinting at a
slug of moisture pushing over the area as some of the global and
ensemble guidance is suggesting PWAT values rise and range between
2.0 and 2.2 inches during this time frame. This would be suggestive
of increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as
well. The highest chances of convection each day will still focus
over the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening
hours and this is where the best chances for strong thunderstorm
development will be as well. While the exact details still remain
uncertain and will depend highly on how much moisture advection
takes place combined with the strength of the mid level
disturbance, gusty winds and heavy downpours could be possible
with the strongest convection. High temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday will generally range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s
across most areas.
Towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the
forecast uncertainty rises as the latest guidance suite continues to
remain in some disagreement with how it handles the evolution of the
mid level disturbance nearby during this time frame. Some of the
guidance shows the disturbance generally washing out as mid level
ridging becomes reestablished across the region while other
solutions suggest the mid level disturbance hangs around longer not
allowing the ridge to fully build in. At the surface, the ridge axis
from the area of high pressure in the Atlantic will remain centered
off to the north which will allow for a general southeasterly wind
flow to remain in place through the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. While it does look like convective development
will be mainly driven by the sea breezes during this time frame, it
remains uncertain on the chances of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development based on the potential for the added extra
source of lift in the mid levels. Highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will still remain over the interior and Southwest
Florida each afternoon during the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend due to the southeasterly wind flow. High
temperatures will remain around climatological normals during this
time frame as they will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across
most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
VFR conditions continue tonight with VCSH possible until around
01Z. SE winds will become light and variable tonight, then back to
around 10kt after 15Z. KAPF will again experience winds out of
the W to around 10 kts after 17Z with the Gulf breeze. VCTS after
17Z for all terminals with returning sea breeze interactions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
A gentle southerly wind flow will remain in place across most of the
local waters today. The exception to this will be across the
Atlantic waters where these gentle winds will become southeasterly
as the day progresses. For Tuesday and Wednesday, a gentle east to
southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across the Atlantic
waters while winds may shift and become more variable across the
Gulf waters due to the effects of the Gulf breeze each afternoon.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 3 feet today,
however, they will gradually diminish and drop to 2 feet or less for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2
feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters
each day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 78 90 78 89 / 10 40 10 40
West Kendall 74 90 75 90 / 10 40 20 40
Opa-Locka 78 92 78 92 / 10 40 10 40
Homestead 77 89 77 89 / 10 30 20 40
Fort Lauderdale 78 89 78 88 / 20 40 10 40
N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 79 89 / 20 40 10 40
Pembroke Pines 80 93 80 93 / 10 40 10 40
West Palm Beach 76 90 77 89 / 20 40 10 40
Boca Raton 77 91 78 91 / 20 40 10 40
Naples 77 92 76 91 / 20 60 30 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17
