fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 302216
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
616 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Small Craft Advisory through Tonight
- Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin. Spring Tides Next
Week minor to moderate tidal flood risk
- Patchy Inland Frost Potential Saturday Morning
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Not much change to the ongoing forecast as Cold Air Advection
Strato-Cu cloud deck across SE GA will continue to break apart
this evening and will push across NE FL with partly cloudy skies
later this evening with all areas becoming clear during the
overnight hours. Gusty West winds at 15G25 mph this evening will
fall to around 5 mph after midnight. The clearing skies and
diminishing of winds should allow for the coldest night of the
Fall season so far with low temps falling to around 40F inland SE
GA, lower 40s inland NE FL and mid/upper 40s along the I-95
corridor and towards the Atlantic Coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Overall, breezy but tranquil weather prevails as cool, dry air
advection persists, though an area of stubborn stratus has kept
temperatures a bit cooler than earlier originally advertised
across inland SE GA. Elsewhere where temperatures have pushed into
the mid 60s under mostly sunny skies. Sunnier locations have also
observed an increase in winds as stronger flow aloft mixes to the
surface with gusts generally around 25-30 mph. This will continue
to be the trend, with sunnier areas being the breezier locations
and cloudier spots a bit more relaxed through the rest of the
afternoon.
Cloud cover should erode this evening and overnight, resulting in a
clear morning sunrise Friday. As skies clear, this will help temps
cool to the coldest levels this Fall season. Readings in the low 40s
will be common inland and offshore breeze will even allow lows at
the coast to dip into the upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Dry, sunny, and cooler conditions are expected Friday and
Saturday as high pressure builds to the north. High temperatures
likely won't reach 70 degrees for most of the area on Friday,
warming up a few degrees on Saturday. Friday night into Saturday
morning will be fairly cold, with low temperatures dipping into
the upper 30s to low 40s inland, and near 50 degrees along the
coast. Patchy frost is possible for some inland locations south of
Waycross and west of I-95 in southeast Georgia southward towards
Macclenny. The NBM has consistently been showing a medium to high
chance for low temperatures less than 37 degrees near Charlton
County. Northwest winds Friday will shift onshore Saturday through
the weekend, keeping low temperatures near the coast a bit warmer
Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Moisture will begin to increase Sunday as surface low pressure
approaches from the west, although shower and storm potential will
hold off during the day, beginning after sunset. Currently
precipitation chances are at about 20-25% across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia through Monday evening. However there still
remains a lot of uncertainty on specific timing and impacts for
thunderstorm potential with the GFS and Euro showing different
solutions. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s each day
with low temperatures in the 40s for inland southeast Georgia and
50s for the coast and most of northeast Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Strato-Cu cloud deck across SE GA at VFR levels around 4000 feet
will continue to impact SSI terminal through 03Z before skies
become to clear during the overnight hours with SKC for all TAF
sites the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty NW winds at 10-12
knots with gusts of 18-20 knots at the start of the TAF period
will fade quickly this evening and remain around 5 knots or less
through the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Small Craft Advisory conditions will impact the local waters through
tonight as breezy offshore winds and elevated seas continue. Winds
and seas begin to relax Friday into Saturday as the high builds over
the local waters. Easterly winds increase Sunday as a coastal trough
develops. This trough will lift northward over Florida as a warm
front in advance of an approaching cold front Monday, with an
increase in winds and seas returning to near Advisory levels.
Showers and isolated storms are expected Sunday night into Monday as
the fronts impact the local waters. High pressure builds northwest
of the local area late Tuesday, then north of the local waters
Wednesday with a return of northeast winds and dry weather.
.Rip Currents...High risk continues along the northeast FL beaches,
mainly due to elevated breakers up to 6 feet at times. Surf will
lower Friday, moderating rip current risk at the local beaches.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
A Coastal Flood Advisory for a portion of the St Johns River,
extending from downtown Jacksonville to Lake George continues
through late this evening with waters levels potential rising to
1.50- feet Mean-Higher-High-Water. Offshore flow this afternoon will
act to "pump" water toward the Atlantic, likely lowering levels
below Minor Flood levels after this evening's high tide cycle.
The next perigean spring tide will occur next week, with the full
moon occurring Wednesday. This will raise water levels to Minor
Flood levels without the influence of onshore or nor'easter-type
flow events. We are monitoring the potential of a low-grade
nor'easter that may exacerbate coastal flood concerns going into the
peak astronomical tides on Wednesday. A coastal flood watch may
need to be considered over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 39 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 48 68 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 43 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 47 69 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 43 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 43 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-325-
633.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 302335
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
735 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
- Breezy and mostly dry behind a cold front today, with hazardous
boating conditions across the coastal waters and a High Risk of
rip currents at area beaches.
- Coolest temperatures of the season so far through tomorrow night.
Friday evening temperatures forecast to drop into the 60s and
50s for Halloween.
- Dry conditions forecast to persist into much of the weekend,
with rain chances returning Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Rest of Today-Sunday...This morning's cold front has cleared the
area, with cooler and drier conditions observed across east
central Florida this afternoon. Breezy conditions continue, with
west-northwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts near 25 mph. Winds will
begin to slacken this evening, becoming 5-10 mph overnight.
Morning low temperatures will be the coolest so far this season,
falling into the lower to mid-50s for most of the area, while
locations north/west of I-4 and rural portions of Osceola County
fall into the upper 40s.
High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area into
this weekend. Dry conditions will prevail through at least Sunday
afternoon, as PWATs remain near or below 1". North-northwest winds
Friday afternoon will be lighter than Thursday, as the pressure
gradient relaxes, at 5-10 mph. Winds will then veer onshore into
Sunday. Cooler temperatures will persist into Friday, with highs
only reaching the lower 70s across east central Florida. This will
make for a very fall-like Halloween night, as evening temperatures
fall into the 60s and upper 50s. Overnight lows are forecast in
the upper 40s to mid-50s. Temperatures will warm slightly to near
normal this weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
Monday-Thursday...Uncertainty continues in the forecast for next
week, as models struggle to maintain run to run consistency. What
appears most certain is that a trough or low in the mid to upper
levels will dig through the Southeast US. Models are having
trouble resolving how this feature will be reflected at the
surface and, therefore, exactly what the weather pattern will be
for the local area. For now, have maintained isolated to scattered
showers (20-30%), with a few storms, beginning Sunday night and
continuing into Monday and NBM PoPs (20% or less) through the
extended period. This will need to be monitored as we head into
the weekend and models continue to resolve their discrepancies.
Temperatures look to remain near normal in the upper 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Poor to hazardous boating conditions today will begin to improve
into tonight, as high pressure builds into the area, causing
winds to relax and seas to diminish. Until then, Small Craft
Advisories (SCA) remain in effect for all of the local Atlantic
waters through 11 PM, due to west-northwest winds 15-25 kts and
seas up to 6-8 ft, particularly in the Gulf Stream. SCAs will
expire from the nearshore waters this evening, but continue for
the Gulf Stream into early Friday afternoon, as seas slowly
subside. Northwest winds by Friday morning are forecast to be
10-15 kts area-wide and will veer onshore through the weekend.
Seas up to 6 ft will persist in the Gulf Stream through Friday
afternoon, then become 2-3 ft into Saturday.
Greater uncertainty Sunday night into early next week, as models
struggle to resolve the evolution a possible low pressure system
near the northern Gulf Coast. For now, what is more confident is
that rain chances return Sunday night into Monday, with poor to
hazardous boating conditions again into mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
VFR as NW winds settle to 5-8 kt overnight. SKC forecast thru the
period with light NW winds 5-10 kt 15-23z Fri.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 49 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 52 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 54 72 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 53 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 49 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 50 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 52 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 53 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552-
555.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 302324
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
- The passage of a strong cold front brings the coldest air so
far this season for the latter half of the week. A few
localized interior areas may experience their first frost of
the season Thursday night or Friday night.
- No additional impacts are anticipated through the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
High pressure will build across the area in the wake of a departing
cold front. Flow aloft will generally remain from the northwest,
helping to filter in drier air across the region. Despite the drier
air, skies will remain mostly cloudy for much of the afternoon
hours. The ample cloud cover and breezy northwest winds will limit
daytime heating, with highs struggling to rise above 60 for much of
the area. That said, clouds will erode through the evening while
winds diminish, leaving mostly clear skies and calm winds overnight.
Given the radiational cooling, lows will fall into the upper 30s
over our interior areas and lower 40s further south.
Temps will briefly moderate on Friday and Saturday, as another
trough begins to dig southward and flow at the surface/aloft becomes
southerly. After a couple of days of glorious conditions (highs in
the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s/40s), rain chances will begin to
increase Saturday night. The trough will swing through during the
day on Sunday, moving out of the region by daybreak on Monday. There
are some discrepancies among the medium range guidance on just how
quickly this trough moves through, though consensus shows a low
becoming cut off in the northeastern Gulf sometime on Monday. In
terms of impacts, while we are likely to see some rain on Sunday,
moisture return leading up to the passage of the tough will be
limited and we will remain on the northern/cool side of a warm
front. So, not anticipating more than isolated to scattered light
showers.
Dry and seasonably mild conditions will then persist through the
remainder of the period. Temps will be cool to start the new work
week, and then moderate to more seasonal norms. /73
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
VFR conditions expected through the forecast, with residual cloud
cover south of Interstate 65 moving off by 06z. Northerly winds
of 5 knots or less expected overnight into Friday, with a shift to
onshore at airports near area bays and the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
A moderate northwesterly flow will continue through the
afternoon. Winds and seas subside tonight, becoming a light
offshore flow by Friday. Winds turn more easterly by Saturday. /73
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 41 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 47 68 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 49 68 52 70 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 38 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 39 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 37 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 38 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 301807
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
207 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much cooler and drier air arrives today and continues into the
weekend.
- A period of hazardous marine conditions is expected for today into
Friday with a Small Craft Advisory and a High Risk of Rip
Currents in effect.
- High dispersions for fire weather today due to gusty NW winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
In the wake of the recent cold front, breezy northwest winds across
the forecast area are advecting in cooler and drier temperatures.
This cool air blowing across relatively warmer Gulf waters is
producing some clouds and light showers, and coastal areas could
see some brief periods or light rain through the rest of the day.
The high risk of rip currents will also continue through Friday as
breezy winds brings surf onshore. Otherwise, cold air advection
will continue to depress temperatures and dew points through at
least Friday night, with lows tonight and Friday night in the 40s
over the Nature Coast and into the interior of west central
Florida, and in the 50s along the coast and from around the Tampa
Bay south. Highs on Friday will be similar or even slightly lower
than today, generally topping out from around 70 over the Nature
Coast to upper 70s over southwest Florida. Temperatures will then
moderate slightly through the weekend under sunny skies as high
pressure builds in from the north.
A deep upper level trough will dig into the southeastern US and
Gulf Coast during the weekend and through the Florida Peninsula
by Monday. This trough will pull another cold front through the
forecast area early Monday, bringing some slight chances of
showers and another shot of cold air...although temperatures are
not forecast to drop quite as low behind that front as they did
with the current front. Lows during the first half of next week
will generally run from around 50 to the mid 60s, with afternoon
highs Monday and Tuesday from the low 70s to low 80s. Temperatures
will then begin to warm back up by Wednesday as high pressure
builds back in from the north.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours
under breezy northwest winds, subsiding overnight tonight. The
possible exception to the VFR conditions will be the outside
chance for some light showers and MVFR ceilings shifting into the
coast through the rest of today, but probabilities are not high
enough to mention in the TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots behind the recent cold front are
producing elevated seas and triggering Small Craft Advisory level
headlines through early Friday morning as winds and seas slowly
subside. Winds will then hold less than 15 knots during the
weekend, before another cold front moves through the waters on
Monday, increasing winds back to near Small Craft Advisory level
conditions and holding through the first half of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Somewhat drier air is filling into the area today and Friday behind
a cold front, but relative humidity is not forecast to drop to
critically low levels. Gusty winds are bringing high dispersion
indices today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 73 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 60 77 56 79 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 52 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 58 74 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 47 71 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 60 71 59 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
60 NM.
&&
$$
Fleming
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 302330
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
730 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
- The coldest temperatures of the season are in store tonight
and Friday night with overnight lows dipping to around 40,
including some 30s for the coldest locations.
- Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters
into the overnight hours and a high rip current risk into
Friday night.
- The next chance for rain is later this weekend into early next
week; rain chances remain low and amounts will generally be one
half inch or less which will have little effect on the ongoing
drought.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Clouds will hang tough today before slowly decreasing this evening
and overnight. High pressure will slide through the southern Plains
into the ArkLaTex Friday to the southern Appalachians Saturday. Cool
northwesterly winds will continue while the high pressure is to our
west maintaining a cool and dry airmass. Lows over the next few
mornings will fall into the 40s with some upper 30s in normally
cooler and sheltered locations. There may also be some patchy frost
in some of our Alabama and adjacent southwest Georgia locations
Friday night/Saturday morning with calm winds and clear skies. Highs
Friday will be in the mid/upper 60s with some low 70s Saturday as
winds clock to the northeast.
Heading into Sunday and Monday the next low pressure system looks to
affect the southeast US. Models tend to agree that a deep trough
will dig south towards the northern Gulf Sunday then off the east
coast Monday afternoon. The 12Z GFS has come more in line with the
more consistent EC, global models, and ensemble means which yields
slightly higher confidence in the forecast for this time frame.
It seems energy with this trough will split into two sections; one
remaining north in the Appalachians and the other over the Gulf
which will spin up a Gulf low and frontal system in the Gulf. This
leads the tri state region to be split from the main areas of
rainfall and maintaining 20-30% rain chances this cycle is
reasonable.
High pressure builds back in Tuesday and Wednesday with dry weather
anticipated as winds clock around from the northwest Tuesday to
northeast Wednesday as the high pressure moves off the Carolina
coast. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
A post-frontal stratus deck will make for MVFR or low-end VFR
cigs (3000-4000 ft range) over the next couple to few hrs across
all terminals. Evening model guidance has not handled these low
clouds very well, sans the RAP13, which was used for timing. Skies
clear from west to east later tonight and remain clear for the
remainder of the period with NW winds below 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
A small craft advisory remains in effect tonight in offshore legs
and nearshore waters west of Apalachicola. Small craft should
exercise caution in nearshore waters east of Apalachicola tonight as
well. Northwest winds will remain strong tonight with winds
diminishing in Apalachee Bay this evening then the rest of the
waters into Friday morning. Winds turn northeast to east this
weekend with another low pressure system possibly affecting the
northeast Gulf later this weekend into early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
High pressure will build in across the southeast US through
Saturday, ahead of the next low pressure system which will affect
the region later Sunday into Monday. Light northwest winds will
be in place Friday and Saturday before clocking to the northeast
Sunday. Afternoon minimum humidities will fall into the lower 30%
range both Friday and Saturday afternoons before recovering
slightly into the low 40% range Sunday. Dry conditions can be
expected up until the next system arrives, though only low
rainfall amounts are expected with that system at this point.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Dry much of the next seven days with the exception of Sunday and
Monday when the next low pressure system is expected to pass through
the southeast US. Rainfall chances are low and rainfall amounts will
average generally one half inch or less. No flooding is expected
this period.
Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the
ongoing drought.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 43 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 47 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 39 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 41 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 43 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 67 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
FLZ108-112-115.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ730-755-
765.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ751-
752-770-772-775.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 302239
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
639 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
- Poor marine and beach conditions today through Thursday night.
- First prolonged taste of fall-like weather arrives today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
The first cold front of the fall and winter seasons will push
through South Florida this morning, which will usher in a drier air
mass as dew points fall into the 50s. Winds will be on the breezier
side as the pressure gradient enhances due to Hurricane Melissa's
presence in the western Atlantic and the trough associated with the
cold front advecting through Florida. Winds can be expected to gust
out of the northwest today between 20-30 mph. By tonight and into
Friday, surface high pressure will start to become established
across the southeastern US and lead to calmer winds along with the
drier weather.
High temperatures behind the front today will peak in the upper 70s
to low 80s. On Friday, temperatures may not exceed 80 degrees as
most areas are expected to see highs in the upper 70s. Low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the mid 50s near the
Lake O region to the low 60s for the interior and along the coasts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Drier conditions will last at least through the weekend as a stable
upper air pattern and dry air mass remains over the area in the wake
of the passing cold front. Temperatures and moisture are expected to
increase modestly by the second half of the weekend, but without a
true lifting mechanism it will be hard for showers to develop. High
temperatures for the weekend are expected to rise slightly into the
low to mid 80s.
For the rest of the forecast period heading into next week, long
term ensembles continue to differ and split in regards to the
evolution and progression of the next frontal system. The general
development by the ensemble members is that a meridional jet streak
across the Great Plains will result in an amplifying trough
somewhere in the Deep South or southeast CONUS, in which the trough
has a chance to become cut off and progress slowly. If the surface
low pressure center sets up closer to the GA/SC coast like the ECMWF
suite has, a drier scenario will set up as moisture advection will
be harder to come by as the deeper moisture advection will be pushed
offshore under SW flow. On the contrary, in a scenario like the GFS
suite, the low pressure center forming over the MS/AL/GA region will
favor deep moisture advection across the Florida Peninsula under SE
flow and a much wetter scenario.
Despite the GFS ensemble suite showing wetter solutions than other
long term guidance, the current probabilities of the GEFS for having
total QPF exceed 2.0" from Monday through Wednesday of next week is
currently 20% or less. Therefore, the latest forecast is going to
trend toward the drier solutions with PoPs generally only 10-20%
each day next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
WNWrly flow this evening will veer NWrly and remain light
overnight at all east coast terminals with VFR conditions
prevailing across the entirety of the area. By late morning,
NWrly winds will enhance and remain between 8-10 kts for most of
the day before winds veer more out of a pure Nrly direction late
in the day. At KAPF, winds will remain light and veer
northeasterly overnight before onshore winds (NWrly) develop
between 17-19z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Winds will increase today to a moderate to fresh breeze as a frontal
boundary moves through the area and Hurricane Melissa continues to
move NE through the western Atlantic today. This will result in
increasing swell which will cause seas to rise to 6-8 feet in both
the Atlantic and Gulf waters today along with northwesterly
sustained winds at 20-25 kts. Therefore, hazardous winds and seas
are expected with a Small Craft Advisory existing for all local
waters today. This will expire overnight tonight as winds and seas
quickly decrease tonight into Friday. Benign conditions are expected
to return to the waters for the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Stronger winds due to a frontal passage and increasing swell caused
by Hurricane Melissa will create a high risk for rip currents for
the Gulf coast beaches as well as the Palm beaches and Broward
beaches. Miami beaches will be in a moderate risk for today. An
elevated risk is then expected to persist into the first part of the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 62 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 62 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 62 77 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 62 77 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 63 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 59 77 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 60 78 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 63 78 59 80 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069-172.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi
