fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 080757
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, CLIMATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Near Record High Temperatures & Isolated T'Storms this Weekend
- Small Craft Advisories Likely Sunday Night through Tuesday. Gale
Warnings Possible Monday Night.
- Elevated Fire Danger Monday and Tuesday.
- Wind Chills Fall into the Low to Mid 20s Late Monday Night, with
Cold Weather Advisories Possible.
- Freeze Potential Early Tues & Wed Mornings. Widespread Frost
Possible Late Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Overnight surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary stretching
from the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward through the the
Tennessee Valley and the Ozarks. Meanwhile, a strong cold front
was organizing over the Plains States and the Intermountain West.
Aloft...a shortwave trough was progressing eastward across the
Ohio Valley, with zonal flow aloft in place across the Deep South
to the south of this feature. Weak shortwave energy embedded
within this zonal flow pattern was moving eastward along the
northern Gulf coast, sparking widely scattered convection from
the FL panhandle southward into the northeastern Gulf. Otherwise,
a potent shortwave trough was diving southeastward across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota. Latest GOES-East derived Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air
mass remains in place locally, with PWATs generally in the 1 -
1.25 inch range. However, a plume of deeper moisture, containing
PWATs of 1.4 - 1.6 inches, was advecting across the eastern FL
panhandle and FL Big Bend region ahead of the aforementioned weak
shortwave energy that was traversing the northern Gulf coast. High
altitude, mostly thin cirrus that was emanating from convection
located over the northeastern Gulf was moving across the
Interstate 10 corridor, with patches of fog developing elsewhere
across our region. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z ranged from
the mid to upper 50s at most inland locations to the mid 60s at
coastal locations.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Zonal flow aloft will transport weak shortwave energy eastward
across our region today. This feature's associated plume of deeper
moisture, featuring PWATs around 1.5 inches, will likely be enough
to trigger widely scattered showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms across our area, with activity currently over the FL
Panhandle expected to enter western portions of the Suwannee
Valley and inland southeast GA later this morning, with convection
expected to reach the I-95 corridor during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Dewpoints rising to the mid and upper 60s and
surface based CAPE values increasing to the 1,000 - 1,500 j/kg
range should support at least a few thunderstorms through late
afternoon before instability wanes towards sunset. Bulk westerly
shear values of only 20-30 knots should keep any convection that
manages to develop below strong levels, with the main hazards
being briefly heavy downpours and sporadic lightning strikes.
Highs will climb to the low and mid 80s at most locations, except
upper 70s for coastal southeast GA, where southerly winds behind
the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary will advect
slightly cooler air this afternoon from the marine environment,
where water temperatures have fallen to around 70 degrees.
Southwesterly flow will begin to deepen across the Deep South
tonight as potent shortwave troughing pivots eastward across the
Upper Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley, with this feature
spawning cyclogenesis over the Ohio River Valley. A cold front
extending south-southwestward from this developing low pressure
center across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys will
strengthen overnight. Southwesterly low level flow will likely
advect a deck of low stratus clouds from the FL Big Bend and
Nature Coasts eastward across the Suwannee Valley and I-75
corridor overnight, with these lower clouds potentially reaching
the U.S. Highway 301 corridor and even I-95 during the predawn and
early morning hours on Sunday. Warm air advection tonight will
keep lows in the low to mid 60s area-wide.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...A 50 to 55 degree temperature difference is forecast between
Sunday afternoon and Monday night...
A strong cold front will move southeast across the forecast area
Sunday into Sunday evening. Convection is expected to accompany
this passage, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances are still fairly low, despite the strength
of the front, due to the dry airmass that is in place over the
area. Any storms which do develop could become strong though, due
to the significant thermal gradient with boundary and diurnal
instability ahead of it. Southwest flow ahead of the boundary will
push temperatures into the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
High pressure will build from the west northwest behind the frontal
passage Sunday night through Monday night. Precipitation chances
will end early Sunday evening, as skies clear from northwest to
southeast. Skies will then be clear through Monday night.
Cold advection will sweep into the area on a northwest flow Sunday
night through Monday night. Lows Sunday night will range from the
lower 40s over inland SE GA, to the lower 50s over coastal NE FL.
During the day on Monday, sunny skies will allow temperatures to
moderate into the lower to mid 50s SE GA, and into the upper 50s
to lower 60s NE FL.
An inland Freeze is forecast Monday night. Inland lows in the mid
20s to around 30. Lows in the middle 30s all the way to the coast.
Except for a few patches of frost, winds should be elevated enough
to limit frost potential.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
The high pressure ridge will build overhead Tuesday and start to
move more toward the east Wednesday. Skies will remain clear through
Wednesday. Tuesday will be the coolest day this week, as once the
high begins to move off to the east, the flow will come from
the west southwest. Tuesday will be well below seasonal averages
with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Another chilly night is forecast for Tuesday night with an inland
Freeze expected. Winds will be near calm Tuesday night, so
significant Frost potential for all but coast and areas near the
St Johns River. Highs Wednesday will rise into the upper 60s.
After a weak front passes through Wednesday night, high pressure
will build again for Thursday through Friday. Mainly clear skies and
dry weather to prevail Wednesday night through Friday. Temperatures
will be near to a little below normal late in this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Periods of LIFR conditions are expected through around 11Z
Saturday at VQQ. Prevailing MVFR visibilities are expected through
around 11Z at CRG, with periods of IFR conditions possible.
Prevailing MVFR visibilities are expected to develop at GNV after
08Z, with periods of LIFR conditions possible through around 12Z.
Otherwise, periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible through
around 13Z at JAX, SSI, and SGJ. Confidence was not high enough to
include possible MVFR conditions at SSI and SGJ, while a TEMPO
group was included at JAX through around 13Z. VFR conditions will
then prevail at the regional terminals towards 14Z. Widely
scattered showers may approach the regional terminals on Saturday
afternoon. Confidence was only high enough to indicate vicinity
coverage at this time. Low stratus ceilings are then expected to
move onshore from Apalachee Bay across the Suwannee Valley after
03Z, with IFR conditions possible before 06Z Sunday at GNV, VQQ,
and JAX. Southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around
5 knots through sunrise at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals,
while sustained speeds remain below 5 knots at the inland
terminals. Southwesterly surface winds will then increase to 5-10
knots at the regional terminals by 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze
boundary will only move slowly inland on Saturday afternoon, with
surface winds shifting to southeasterly around 10 knots at the
coastal terminals after 18Z. Surface winds will shift to southerly
at the regional terminals towards 00Z, with speeds diminishing to
around 5 knots by 04Z Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Southwesterly winds will develop on Saturday and will gradually
strengthen on Sunday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front that
will be entering the southeastern U.S. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this front later this
afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon and evening. Seas of 2-4
feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Sunday
evening.
The strong cold front will cross our local waters during the
overnight hours on Sunday night, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions overspreading the offshore waters after midnight as
winds abruptly shift to northwesterly and increase to 20-25 knots
after midnight, with seas building to 3-5 feet. Caution level
wind speeds of 15-20 knots are expected to develop after midnight
near shore, with speeds then increasing to Small Craft Advisory
levels by early Monday afternoon, when seas will increase to 3-5
feet. Strong high pressure building into the southeastern states
on Monday will result in occasional Gale Force wind gusts on
Monday night, when Gale Warnings may be necessary. Seas will peak
at Caution levels of 4-6 feet near shore on Monday night, with
offshore seas peaking in the 5-8 foot range on Monday night and
Tuesday. High pressure will then shift eastward and will become
centered directly over our local waters by midweek, allowing for
winds and seas to gradually diminish.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Southwesterly transport winds will gradually strengthen this
morning, becoming breezy this afternoon. These breezy transport
winds will create good daytime dispersion values for inland
portions of northeast and north central FL, with fair values
forecast elsewhere. Transport winds will remain breezy and will
shift to west-southwesterly on Sunday, with breezy southwesterly
surface winds expected to develop by early afternoon. These breezy
surface and transport winds will create good to marginally high
daytime dispersion values region-wide. Surface and transport winds
will then shift to northwesterly before sunrise on Monday, with
speeds steadily increasing as the day progresses. These winds will
usher in a much cooler and drier air mass, likely resulting in
long durations of critically low humidity values across inland
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley on
Monday, likely creating an Elevated Fire Danger. Strong surface
and transport winds on Monday will again create good to marginally
high daytime dispersion values region-wide.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Record High Temperatures This Weekend:
November 8:
KJAX: 85/2024
KCRG: 84/2020
KGNV: 89/2018
KAMG: 86/2000
November 9:
KJAX: 88/1986
KCRG: 85/2018
KGNV: 88/1986
KAMG: 87/1986
Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:
November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943
November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 61 82 40 / 30 10 30 0
SSI 77 64 80 46 / 10 0 10 0
JAX 83 64 85 46 / 20 0 20 0
SGJ 83 66 82 50 / 10 10 20 0
GNV 84 65 84 48 / 20 10 20 0
OCF 84 66 82 50 / 20 10 20 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 080800
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today
and again on Sunday. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe
weather on Sunday.
- Below normal temperatures with wind chill values in the upper
20s to mid 30s are forecast across east central Florida early
next week behind the strong cold front.
- Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Sunday
across the interior.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Today-Tonight...Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast across the
Florida peninsula today as troughing begins to organize in the
mid- levels across the central U.S. A weak ridge axis establishes
itself across the area, with light southwest winds present prior
to the development of a weak sea breeze thanks to temperatures
warming into the mid 80s. The sea breeze is anticipated to remain
fairly pinned along the coast, and isolated shower development
cannot be ruled out as the west coast sea breeze moves across the
peninsula and interacts with the pinned east coast breeze.
Maintain a 20% chance of rain primarily from Orlando to the Cape
and areas southward. If activity manages to develop, there is a
low chance (20%) for storm development. Sufficient daytime heating
will support greater instability, with steep low level lapse
rates present and DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg based on model
soundings. Wind gusts to 40 mph and lightning strikes will be the
primary concerns with any storm activity that manages to develop.
Showers and storms then move offshore into the overnight hours,
with mostly dry conditions forecast. Patchy fog development will
be possible across the interior west of I-95 late tonight. Lows
fall into the mid 60s.
Sunday-Monday...Mid-level troughing strengthens across the
central U.S., with an area of low pressure developing near the
Ohio Valley on Sunday, with its attendant cold front extending
southward towards the Ark-La-Tex region. The low will gradually
lift northeastward as the trough extends farther south towards the
southeast U.S., pushing the cold front closer to the Florida
peninsula. Locally, ahead of the front, isolated to scattered
shower development and isolated storm development will be
possible. Ample daytime heating will lead to sufficient
instability, with MUCAPE forecast to exceed 1200 J/kg across much
of east central Florida. Modeled soundings also indicate modest
low level lapse rates and DCAPE values of 850 J/kg and greater
areawide. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas north
of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County in a Marginal Risk
(1/5) for severe weather on Sunday. Any storms that manage to
develop may be capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph as
well as frequent lightning strikes. 500 mb temperatures are also
forecast to be in the -10 to -9C range, so hail also cannot be
fully ruled out if storms are able to get that tall. Shower and
storm activity is anticipated to begin up north and expand
southward as the front approaches the area, moving across the
peninsula late Sunday into Monday.
Drier and cooler air then filters in across east central Florida
on Monday, with rain chances dropping to near 0%. Winds pick up
out of the north behind the front, with winds of 10 to 15 mph
forecast. Gusts to 20 mph will be possible. Afternoon temperatures
in the 80s on Sunday take a steep dive on Monday, with highs only
reaching the 60s to 70s. Monday night, the coldest temperatures
of the season thus far are forecast, with lows falling into the
mid 30s to low 40s. Windy conditions will also make it feel cooler
than it is, with wind chill values falling into the upper 20s to
mid 30s areawide.
Tuesday-Friday...The mid-level trough swings northeastward and
exits the area on Tuesday, with quasi-zonal flow forecast aloft
through the remainder of the forecast period. At the surface, an
area of high pressure is forecast to strengthen across the
southeastern U.S. behind the cold front, keeping conditions dry
through the end of this week and into the weekend. Temperatures
will continue to remain well below normal for this time of year on
Tuesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to only reach the mid 50s
to mid 60s, with the highest temperatures focused across the
Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Lows Tuesday night fall
into the upper 30s north of the I-4 corridor and into the 40s
southward, with wind chill values in the upper 30s across much of
the interior. A warming trend then begins as the high sets up
across the area, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday
and in the 70s to low 80s through the remainder of the week. Lows
in the 40s to 50s Wednesday and Thursday, with 50s areawide on
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Generally favorable boating conditions through this weekend
deteriorate on Monday behind a cold front that passes across the
local Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. Light
southwesterly winds veer to out of the north and increase to 20 to
30 knots Monday through Tuesday. Seas respond and quickly build,
increasing to 8 to 12 feet across the Gulf Stream waters and 5 to
8 feet across the nearshore waters, peaking on Tuesday. Winds and
seas then subside as high pressure builds across the local
Atlantic waters, with a return of favorable boating conditions
towards mid week.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today
and again on Sunday out ahead of the cold front. Any storms that
manage to develop may be capable of producing gusty winds and
lightning strikes. Locally higher seas near stronger storms cannot
be ruled out. Dry conditions are then forecast behind the front
and through the remainder of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1210 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Generally VFR, but will monitor for late night/early (Sat)
morning patchy fog. Low confidence in local models as to where
chances may be greatest, should fog develop at all. ISOLD showers
possible Sat afternoon, but low coverage and confidence is
keeping "Vicinity" wording out of TAFs at this time. Light and
variable winds becoming SWRLY on Sat 5-10 kts, transitioning
onshore in the (mid/late) afternoon with sea breeze formation. Sat
evening, possible ISOLD convection from near KTIX southward along
the coast with activity either dissipating or moving off of the
coast by mid to late evening. Cannot rule out some patchy fog
development overnight Sat into early Sun morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 67 83 55 / 10 10 20 0
MCO 87 68 84 59 / 20 10 30 0
MLB 84 68 85 62 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 86 67 86 63 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 85 67 83 55 / 20 10 30 0
SFB 86 67 83 57 / 20 10 30 0
ORL 86 69 83 59 / 20 10 30 0
FPR 86 68 86 64 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 080405
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1005 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
- A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of
the marine area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the
potential for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf
waters.
- The first freeze of the season is likely for most of the
forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
into the middle 20's to lower 30's.
- Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible on Monday across
the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry weather, and
forecast strong winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
A potent upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS Sunday into
Monday, bringing with it a powerful cold front and the coldest
airmass of the season so far. Strong winds follow the cold front
presenting marine hazards Sunday through Monday night and fire
weather concerns during the day Monday. Generally northwesterly to
westerly flow aloft prevails on the backside of a longwave upper
trough through the rest of the week with a return to more
seasonable temperatures by mid to late week.
Today will remain mostly dry as the shortwave responsible for
isolated showers and storms yesterday has shifted east of the
area. A few showers and maybe a storm or two could develop along
the aforementioned cold front tonight through daybreak Sunday.
Dry weather settles into the forecast area by Sunday night through
the remainder of next week.
Our coldest airmass of the season will infiltrate the area Sunday
night through Monday night. Temperatures drop substantially into
the lower to middle 30's for interior locations Sunday night with
middle to upper 30's nearer the coast. Monday will feature our
coldest day of the season as highs struggle to exceed 50 degrees
for most locations, with current expectations for most of the
interior to remain locked into the upper 40's. Nearer the coast a
few spots may manage to break into the lower 50's. To put this
cold into perspective, these highs are closer to what we would
typically expect for overnight lows this time of year with the
average low at KMOB being 50 degrees and the current forecast high
Monday being 52 degrees. As we head into Monday night surface
high pressure settles in, with calming winds and clear skies
prevailing. This will result in an idealized radiational cooling
setup that will send nearly the entire forecast area below
freezing, perhaps well below freezing over the interior. Expect
lows to dip into the 23 to 27 range over interior areas, with 27
to 32 across coastal counties. Even some of our beaches may flirt
with freezing temperatures as lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30's. Only spots that are likely to remain above
freezing will be the more protected areas such as Dauphin Island
and Destin.
Tuesday warms into the upper 50's for most locations, with lows
Tuesday night dipping into the middle to upper 30's for most
locations, perhaps even a few lower 40's making their way back
into coastal counties. We gradually moderate back to near normal
temperatures mid to late week with highs reaching the middle 70's
once again and lows in the middle to upper 40's over the interior
and upper 40's to lower 50's nearer the coast. A Low risk of rip
currents continues through the middle of next week.
One more hazard to discuss is the potential for fire weather
concerns Monday afternoon. Strong winds will be present across the
area with sustained surface winds around 10 to 20 mph with
frequent gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. 20 foot winds also
approach similar values with sustained 20 foot winds closing in on
15 to 20 mph. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values dip to
near 25 percent Monday. Fuels remain very dry given the ongoing
drought, and combined with the strong winds and dry airmass
dangerous fire conditions will exist Monday and a Red Flag
warning may be needed Monday for most of the area. Winds relax
Tuesday, but the very dry airmass remains in place which may still
result in some increased fire danger. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
MVFR to IFR ceilings have been gradually settling into the area
this evening, with localized LIFR ceilings being observed in a few
spots. While a low stratus deck will be the primary flight
category restriction, localized patches of fog could result in IFR
to LIFR visibilities through daybreak. Flight category improves
back to VFR by mid morning. Winds will generally continue to be
out of the south- southwest to southwest at around 5 knots the
rest of tonight through the day today. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025
A light westerly to southwesterly flow persists today. A moderate to
strong northwesterly flow develops Sunday in the wake of a cold
front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed in the wake of
the cold front for all marine waters Sunday afternoon through
Monday night. Gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf
waters Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will then relax
and become southeasterly to southerly on Tuesday. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 78 62 80 62 / 30 10 0 20
Pensacola 78 67 78 66 / 40 30 0 20
Destin 77 67 78 67 / 30 40 10 20
Evergreen 79 61 81 59 / 40 30 10 30
Waynesboro 76 60 79 57 / 40 10 10 30
Camden 76 61 78 57 / 40 30 10 30
Crestview 78 62 81 60 / 30 30 10 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 080554
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1254 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
- Warm temperatures through the weekend, and areas of late night
early morning fog.
- Significant cool down expected for early next week.
- Marine hazards expected early next week behind a strong cold
front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Little change to the overall analysis as the U/L pattern has begun
to amplify which will continue through the weekend as a deep
trough will be carved out by Sunday extending from Hudson Bay to
the northern Gulf coast. Sharp ridging will take place upstream of
the trough from the western U.S. north into western Canada. The
main east coast trough axis will rotate out over the western
Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. A broad mean trough will remain
over the eastern U.S. with a ridge out west. This will be
temporary as the pattern will become more progressive as a strong
Pacific system will push onshore the west coast of the U.S.
forcing the ridge east over the plains states by late in the
week.
Remnants of an U/L disturbance over the central Gulf continue to
produce a few thunderstorms over 100 miles offshore the west coast
of Florida. As this system begins to be picked up by the
westerlies and moves east today, a few thunderstorms may move
over the outer waters early this morning, but are expected to
dissipate before reaching the coast.
Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula
today and Sunday with continued warm rather humid conditions for
early November. Patchy/Areas of fog early this morning, and again
redeveloping after midnight tonight...mainly away from the coast.
Fog will lift by mid morning each day.
As the U/L pattern amplifies over the weekend, a strong area of
Canadian high pressure will dive south out of Canada through the
plains states. The associated cold front will push across the
Florida peninsula Sunday night. Deep layer moisture will be
limited so only a chance of a shower or thunderstorm expected
ahead of the frontal passage.
Cold Canadian airmass will advect across the forecast area Sunday
night and Monday in the wake of the front...with temperatures on
Monday likely holding steady or falling slowly through the day
with gusty northwest winds. High temperatures on Monday will be
in the lower to mid 60s north...mid to upper 60s central...and
the lower to mid 70s south. As the cold air rides over the warm
waters of the Gulf, a large area of strato-cu will likely develop
over the eastern Gulf and may advect locally onshore. Can't rule
out an isolated sprinkle or light shower, primarily over the
coastal waters.
Monday night will be clear and cold with overnight lows in the lower
to mid 30s north...mid to upper 30s central...and lower to mid
40s south. Temperatures will be a bit warmer along the immediate
coast. North winds will persist which will make it feel even
colder with wind chills in the mid 20s north...upper 20s to lower
30s central...and the mid 30s south. Potential that temps across
northern areas could be a category colder if the center of the
surface high sinks a bit further south allowing winds to collapse
which would enhance radiational cooling.
The surface high will hold over the region on Tuesday with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 north, the lower 60s
central, and the mid 60s south under sunny skies. This equates the
daily average temperature to be about 15 to 20 degrees below
climatic normals. Another cold night on tap Tuesday night with
lows in the mid to upper 30s north...lower 40s central...and the
mid to upper 40s south. Caveat will be that winds will be
relatively light Tuesday night so wind chill readings are not
expected to be much different from the actual temperatures.
The area of high pressure will hold over the area Wednesday, but
the airmass will begin to modify with temperatures climbing into
the upper 60s to around 70 north...lower 70s central...and the mid
70s south under sunny skies. And the warming trend will continue
into the latter part of the week with temperatures returning to
near climatic normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Areas of fog early this morning may cause MVFR VSBYs at terminals
for several hours. The fog may be locally dense with LCL IFR
VSBYs. The fog will lift by mid morning with skies becoming
predominately SCT040-050 SCT250.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Gradient will remain rather weak today and Sunday with south to
southwest winds below cautionary levels. A strong cold front
will push across the waters Sunday night and Monday with winds
shifting to the northwest and likely increasing to SCA levels
across all of the waters with hazardous boating conditions
developing. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values well above critical levels. Fire weather hazards will
likely increase early next week behind a cold front as much drier
air will advect over the region on gusty north to northwest winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 71 83 60 / 10 10 20 0
FMY 87 70 85 67 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 88 68 85 59 / 10 10 20 10
SRQ 83 70 82 61 / 0 10 20 10
BKV 85 65 82 52 / 10 10 30 0
SPG 82 72 80 61 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 080607
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
107 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
- Following a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, an
abrupt turn to cold and windy weather will occur Sunday night
and Monday. The first killing frost and/or freeze of the season
is expected for all but beachfront communities on Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.
- Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday afternoon
through Monday night across all northeast Gulf waters.
Occasional gusts to near gale force is possible in waters west
of Apalachicola.
- Elevated fire weather concerns are expected on Monday afternoon
with gusty winds, low relative humidity, and ongoing drought
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
First shortwave trough will push east today and off the east coast
tonight. Southerly flow is ongoing and will gradually become
southwesterly through the day as the trough exits stage right.
Showers have developed over the Gulf waters this evening in the WAA
regime and high resolution models have additional, isolated
development overnight across the Gulf waters and inland locations.
Modest shear and instability is in place for a low threat of a brief
tornado should any updrafts become sustained. The environment
gradually weakens by 12Z. Remaining showers inland this morning will
move east with dry conditions west to east into the afternoon hours.
In the meantime, the second, and more potent, shortwave dives into
the southern Plains tonight supporting a strong cold front into the
southeast US on our doorstep by dawn Sunday morning. Highs today
will run 5-8 degrees above normal with readings in the low 80s and
lows tonight will fall into the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
The first killing frost and freeze of the season is anticipated
early next week.
The cold front blasts through Sunday with isolated showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm accompanying it as it passes through. Winds
quickly clock around to the northwest and become gusty Sunday night
and Monday. This will usher in the coldest airmass of this fall
season as a 1040mb high slides down the high plains Monday and
settles along the northern Gulf coast Tuesday. Highs Monday will
struggle to make 50 degrees in the wiregrass to mid 50s in coastal
areas. Lows Monday night will be the coldest as readings will fall
into the mid to upper 20s over most locations and lower 30s closer
to the coast. With a 5-10 mph wind overnight as high pressure
remains to our west, cold weather advisories, in addition to freeze
warnings, will likely be needed (apparent temperatures of 25F for
Florida counties and 20F for Alabama/Georgia counties). Tuesday
night will be slightly warmer but most locations will reach freezing
and below, and with nearly calm and clear skies as high pressure is
nearby, widespread frost is likely.
As the cold dome pushes east Wednesday, high temperatures rebound
into the 60s Wednesday and 70s Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
IFR/LIFR stratus is lingering just north and west of ECP/DHN/ABY
with embedded patchy fog. Meanwhile, some patchy fog and low stratus
is developing around TLH. Expect cigs at all terminals to drop to
IFR/LIFR over the next few hours with some IFR/MVFR vsbys in patchy
fog. Widely scattered SHRA with some TS will develop in the next
couple hours around ECP and DHN, then move eastward through TLH and
ABY early morning, then VLD around mid to late morning. Confidence
decreases farther east, so have TEMPOs at all but VLD which has a
PROB30. Cigs will slowly rise behind the SHRA/TSRA back to VFR for
the remainder of the day. Near the end of the TAF period, another
round of low stratus and patchy fog will develop near TLH/VLD,
spreading to more terminals after 06z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
West to southwest winds are expected with isolated showers through
the day today across the Gulf waters. Conditions deteoriate
Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. Strong
northwest winds will occur immediately behind the front with gusts
to near gale force, especially in waters west of Apalachicola
Sunday night into Monday night. Winds decrease beginning Tuesday
as high pressure settles into the southeast US and northeast Gulf
waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this morning and once again on Sunday. Rainfall amounts will
generally be light and have virtually no effect on the ongoing
drought. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday afternoon
with strong northerly winds following the frontal passage into
Monday night. The combination of near critically low relative
humidity values with gusty winds on Monday afternoon is likely to
produce elevated fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue into Tuesday with afternoon humidities in
the mid 20 percent range but stronger winds will diminish.
The coldest temperatures of this fall season are on tap with the
first killing frost and freeze expected for all but immediate
coastal locations both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
Severe to extreme drought over much of the region will persist or
worsen over the next 7 days. A limited window of opportunity for
rainfall this weekend will only produce amounts of 1/4 inch or less,
mainly through Sunday. Isolated and localized totals to near 1/2
inch are a reasonable best case scenario. The spotty nature of
rain and the lack of heavier amounts will offer no real relief to
drought conditions.
Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the
ongoing drought.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 82 64 82 43 / 30 10 20 0
Panama City 79 67 79 43 / 10 20 20 0
Dothan 82 62 77 38 / 10 20 20 0
Albany 82 63 80 40 / 20 10 20 0
Valdosta 82 64 83 41 / 40 0 30 0
Cross City 82 65 82 45 / 30 10 20 0
Apalachicola 77 67 76 44 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...DVD
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 080557
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
- Best chances for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon, then very low chances for the rest of the week.
- Cooler and drier conditions early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
No big changes to the current forecast as we end the week and
enter the weekend. As mentioned overnight, a weak shortwave trough
will push through today. This may provide enough lift to produce a
few showers and storms today, but no major impacts are expected.
Entering the weekend, surface high pressure over the Atlantic
expanding will create a weak flow setup and low chances for
showers. Afternoon high temperatures today expected in the mid to
upper 80s across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
NBM and ensembles show a fairly active weather spreading across the
SE CONUS as a deep trough/frontal complex push E/SE today.
Meanwhile, a mid-level trough will migrate eastward across Florida,
while the sfc ridge over the area is being pushed further eastward
by the frontal system to the north. This will veer low-lvl winds
across SoFlo to a more southerly flow and bring moisture advection
throughout the day.
Model soundings push PWATs to near 2 inches this afternoon, while
the influence of the weak trough aloft might provide enough lifting
to support a few strong thunderstorms, despite of rather modest CAPE
values. Onshore showers are possible during the morning hours,
mainly around east coast metro areas. POPs remain in the 30-40
percent range, so, even with the increasing moisture, a wide-spread
rainy day is not expected.
For Saturday, ridging over the Atlantic will again expand into the
area and relax pressure gradients across SoFlo. Drier air filters
into the area, while winds become generally light at the sfc.
Meanwhile, zonal flow establishes aloft and PWATs drop to near one
inch. This will drop POPs into single digits with benign weather
prevailing.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s, and upper 80s to around 90 on
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
Models depict drier air aloft lingering over the region on Sunday,
with mainly light SSW winds. Latest NBM and global solutions have
dropped POPs even further with basically single digits in the
forecast each day.
Model consensus has improved a little regarding a dry frontal
boundary moving across the state early next week. And regardless
of the final outcome of the complex synoptic scenario for the E
CONUS, there is no significant impact weather-wise associated
with this FROPA, except for lowering temperatures a bit.
Coldest temps seem to arrive Monday night and through Tuesday with
the persisting northerly flow. Overnight lows may drop into the low-
mid 40s around the Lake region, and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
Afternoon highs Tuesday afternoon should remain in the mid-upper 60s
around the Lake region and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. The air
mass gradually moderates through the end of the work week with
afternoon highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. This
timing is highly dependent on how the overall synoptic scenario
evolves, so some adjustments to the forecast time line might be
required based on upcoming model runs.
All in all, the weather pattern early next week should offer the
first benefit taste of the upcoming winter season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Light and variable winds will increase slightly this afternoon
to around 5-8 kts out of the SE for the east coast and out of the
west for KAPF. Winds become light and variable after 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
East-south winds around 5-10 knots continue today, then gradually
shifting southerly late this weekend ahead of an approaching
front. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to quickly develop
in the wake of the frontal passage early next week over most of
South Florida's coastal waters. High-end Advisory conditions are
possible as early as Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 87 74 87 72 / 10 10 10 10
West Kendall 88 71 88 70 / 10 0 20 10
Opa-Locka 89 73 88 72 / 10 10 20 10
Homestead 87 72 86 71 / 10 0 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 87 73 87 71 / 10 10 20 10
N Ft Lauderdale 87 74 87 71 / 10 10 20 10
Pembroke Pines 90 74 90 72 / 10 10 20 10
West Palm Beach 88 72 88 70 / 10 20 20 10
Boca Raton 88 73 88 71 / 10 10 20 10
Naples 85 72 85 69 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
