fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 081132
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
732 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Another day of weak SW steering flow across the local area
between mean layer high pressure across the southern FL peninsula
and a trough north of the region. Gulf coast convection will edge
inland toward the I-75 corridor through late morning, as inland
heat builds with slightly higher mid level thicknesses today under
the influence of a 500 mb ridge extending NE to SW across the
area. The presence of this ridge axis into the mid afternoon will
tend to keep convection more shallow in nature until boundary
collisions occur across inland locations late afternoon into the
early evening where rain chances of > 60% were advertised for
locations near and north of the I-10 corridor and east of Highway
301 toward the St. Johns River basin of NE FL.
Slow storm motion and high moisture content of 2-2.2 inches will
bring localized heavy rainfall especially north of the I-10
corridor where the deeper moisture resides. Heavy precip loading
where boundary mergers occur will also bring wet downburst
potential with a continued layer of drier air between 700-500 mb
enhancing DCAPEs (00z JAX RAOB DCAPE was just over 940 J/kg).
Given slow and erratic storm motion under weak steering flow,
storms will tend to slowly fade and 'rain out' through midnight
over interior locations with a resurrection of pre-dawn convection
back toward the Gulf coast as SW steering flow continues.
Above average high temperatures will again reach the mid to upper
90s across SE GA and locations east of Highway 301 across NE FL
today, while 'cooler' highs in lower 90s will focus near and west
of the FL I-75 corridor where morning convection and cloud cover
nudges inland from the Gulf. Peak heat index values continue to
range between 100-105 deg, below local heat advisory criteria.
Continued muggy overnight lows will range in the low to mid 70s
inland to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Temperatures will return closer to near normal Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs generally in the lower 90s as weak southwest
flow continues. The Atlantic beaches will be more so in the upper
80s as the east coast sea breeze pushes towards I-95. High shower
and storm chances will be present both afternoons and evenings, as
the Gulf sea breeze pushes inland sparking up convection. Coverage
will increase as sea breezes and other boundaries converge over
northeast Florida. With weaker flow and high PWATs in place, there
will be a localized heavy downpour/flooding threat mid-week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Beginning Friday, temperatures will heat back up area-wide, with
highs over inland southeast Georgia reaching the mid 90s. With
winds becoming more westerly towards the end of the week and
through the weekend, it will reach the lower 90s at the Atlantic
coast since the sea breeze will be pinned. Heat indices of about
100-105 are likely each day, potentially a little higher in some
spots. With the Atlantic sea breeze not pushing far inland, the
Gulf sea breeze will dominate, highest storm coverage will be west
of I-95.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A lazy moisture-laden southwesterly flow continues today, allowing
an inland Atlc sea breeze push to and beyond the I-95 corridor early
this evening, reaching KJAX around 21z. Anticipate a late day sea
breeze collision resulting in slow-moving thunderstorms through the
early evening hours. Occasional periods of IFR vsby, lightning, and
erratic outflow winds are anticipated between 19z-01z today,
otherwise VFR conds prevail. Winds will generally turn back to
the SSW this evening with potentially a few showers overnight as a
weak disturbance moves in off the Atlantic.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
High pressure extending across central Florida and a surface
trough across Georgia will bring prevailing southwest winds,
shifting onshore each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze moves
inland. Evening nocturnal wind surges will near 15 to 20 knots
briefly at times. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore
of the coast in the afternoon and early evening.
Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk continues today with an
easterly swell of around 1.5 ft with 14 second periods at buoy
41117 (east of St. Augustine). A moderate risk is expected Wed for
FL beaches with a low risk for SE GA beaches as the easterly
swell component fades.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 95 74 91 73 / 70 50 80 30
SSI 89 76 87 76 / 30 30 50 30
JAX 94 74 91 73 / 50 40 80 30
SGJ 92 75 90 75 / 40 30 60 20
GNV 93 73 91 73 / 70 30 80 20
OCF 92 74 91 73 / 60 30 80 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 081405
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
- Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy
rain will accompany the strongest storms.
- Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in
the workweek as moisture builds over Florida.
- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
breaks in the shade or A/C.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
The low level ridge axis was near Lake Okeechobee this morning
with light WSW flow in the H9-H7 layer north of the ridge axis.
Morning soundings indicate warmish mid level temps with ~8.5C at
H7 at XMR and -7C at H5 at JAX/XMR. Have lowered pops slightly for
the afternoon based on the latest guidance, mainly in the
scattered range from 30 percent along the Treasure Coast and
Coastal Brevard to 50 percent across interior with most of the
late afternoon storms developing from Osceola County NNE to
Volusia County. The July heat continues with highs in the lwr 90s
coast to mid 80s interior. Heat indices will remain elevated with
max readings from 100-106 in the afternoon. No forecast
adjustments needed to temps with highs in the lwr-mid 90s.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning.
This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface
Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper
heights are above normal across much of North America and the
Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over
the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the
mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture
values have dropped slightly below normal.
The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become
elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work
week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be
advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive
mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and
the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just
strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South
Florida by the weekend.
Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper
tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows
meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant
differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture
over the state from the northeast.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Today-Wednesday...
Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless,
seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the
position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should
be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the
stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak
heat indices from 100-106 deg F.
Thursday-Weekend...
A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south
to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70%
chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon,
persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some
storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat
and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as
106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the
extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions
will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient
access to air conditioning.
Early Next Week...
Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics,
with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast.
This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state,
leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and
storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the
local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant
weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating
conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the
coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and
storms are forecast.
Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3
FT.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Light and variable winds becoming more WSW at 5 to 10 knots after
15Z. VCSH possible along the coast as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland this afternoon, with VCTS across the
interior after 20Z as the sea breeze collision occurs. Interior
terminals have greatest chance for impacts due to TSRA, so have
TEMPOs at MCO, ISM, and SFB from 22Z through 01Z. Some push back
towards the coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains
low at this time and therefore have maintained either VCSH or VCTS
at the coastal terminals. Activity diminishing after 02Z, with
light SSW winds overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 89 75 / 40 40 50 20
MCO 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
MLB 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 20
VRB 91 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20
LEE 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 60 20
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
ORL 93 77 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
FPR 90 73 89 73 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Tollefsen
FXUS62 KMLB 081415
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
- Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy
rain will accompany the strongest storms.
- Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in
the workweek as moisture builds over Florida.
- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
breaks in the shade or A/C.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
The low level ridge axis was near Lake Okeechobee this morning
with light WSW flow in the H9-H7 layer north of the ridge axis.
Morning soundings indicate warmish mid level temps with ~8.5C at
H7 at XMR and -7C at H5 at JAX/XMR. Have lowered pops slightly for
the afternoon based on the latest guidance, mainly in the
scattered range from 30 percent along the Treasure Coast and
Coastal Brevard to 50 percent across interior with most of the
late afternoon storms developing from Osceola County NNE to
Volusia County. The July heat continues with highs in the lwr 90s
coast to mid 90s interior. Heat indices will remain elevated with
max readings from 100-106 in the afternoon.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning.
This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface
Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper
heights are above normal across much of North America and the
Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over
the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the
mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture
values have dropped slightly below normal.
The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become
elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work
week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be
advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive
mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and
the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just
strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South
Florida by the weekend.
Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper
tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows
meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant
differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture
over the state from the northeast.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Today-Wednesday...
Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless,
seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the
position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should
be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the
stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak
heat indices from 100-106 deg F.
Thursday-Weekend...
A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south
to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70%
chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon,
persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some
storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat
and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as
106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the
extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions
will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient
access to air conditioning.
Early Next Week...
Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics,
with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast.
This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state,
leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and
storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the
local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant
weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating
conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the
coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and
storms are forecast.
Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3
FT.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Light and variable winds becoming more WSW at 5 to 10 knots after
15Z. VCSH possible along the coast as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland this afternoon, with VCTS across the
interior after 20Z as the sea breeze collision occurs. Interior
terminals have greatest chance for impacts due to TSRA, so have
TEMPOs at MCO, ISM, and SFB from 22Z through 01Z. Some push back
towards the coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains
low at this time and therefore have maintained either VCSH or VCTS
at the coastal terminals. Activity diminishing after 02Z, with
light SSW winds overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 89 75 / 40 40 50 20
MCO 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
MLB 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 20
VRB 91 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20
LEE 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 60 20
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
ORL 93 77 92 76 / 50 40 60 20
FPR 90 73 89 73 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Tollefsen
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 081115
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Throughout the period, upper-level ridging attempts to build
across portions of the southeast US, however, it looks to have
some trouble establishing itself across our local area through
late week. This is due to a shortwave trough that moves in from
the northwest on Wednesday and stalls over central MS/AL. This
trough will help to keep our area underneath a weakness within the
ridge. This, along with deep moisture in place, will allow for
rain chances to increase through the week. Highest rain chances
appear to be on Thursday and Friday (generally around 60-80% away
from the immediate coast) as the shortwave makes its closest
approach. The shortwave should dissipate by Saturday, allowing for
the ridge to finally build into the area by Sunday and Monday.
This should help to lower PoPs back down to around 40-60 percent.
Activity throughout the period is expected to follow a typical
diurnal summertime pattern, with showers and storms developing
during the morning over our marine zones and along the coast,
pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours along the
sea breeze which spread inland via outflow boundary collisions,
and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the
loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of
pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of
producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very
heavy rainfall.
Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. We
should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria through at least
Sunday, although heat indices could potentially rise to as high as
102-107 degrees in many spots. As the ridge builds into the area, we
may have our first shot at exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria
on Monday as heat indices in a few areas could climb to as high as
109. We will monitor trends over the coming days. Lows will range
from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
The rip current risk remains low through much of the period. There
is an indication that strengthening onshore flow may help to
increase the rip current risk to a moderate risk for our Florida
beaches during the Wednesday night through Thursday night
timeframe. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
General VFR conditions with light southwest to westerly winds at 11z
with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two south of the
coast. Winds are expected to shift to southerly through the day as
a seabreeze develops and moves inland. Upper end MVFR/VFR
conditions are expected through the morning into the afternoon,
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms bringing local drops in
conditions to mid/low level MVFR. Locally strong and variable
winds are also possible in and near the stronger thunderstorms.
This convection is expected to quickly decrease in coverage during
the evening with the loss of the day's heating. Also, winds well
inland are expected to become light, with westerly winds around 5
knots along and south of I-10 expected through the evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
prevails through the week. No impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 081158
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
758 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure near Bermuda ridges
west-southwestward across southwest Florida and into the eastern
gulf. This ridging will shift northward by Wednesday with the ridge
axis extending through the central part of the state. This pattern
will favor light and variable winds overnight, becoming west-
southwest 5-10 knots during the afternoon. Abundant moisture with
PWAT values between 1.6 - 1.9 inches will support daily scattered
sea breeze showers and storms during the afternoon hours.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Southwesterly flow and more stable air will keep thunderstorm
chances limited today. The best chance to see storms at terminals
will be in southwest Florida. Winds generally be light staying
below 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
High pressure ridges across Florida and into the eastern gulf
producing light winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.
A stray shower or storm is possible over the eastern gulf during the
evening and early morning hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Abundant moisture and light winds will continue through the week
precluding any fire weather concerns. Daily afternoon showers and
storms expected each day through the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 92 78 92 / 20 60 20 70
FMY 76 94 76 93 / 30 70 30 70
GIF 75 93 75 92 / 20 70 20 70
SRQ 76 92 76 90 / 20 50 30 60
BKV 73 92 73 92 / 20 60 20 70
SPG 79 89 78 89 / 20 50 30 60
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 081044
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Another typical summer day is on tap. Early morning convection
offshore steadily moves north and inland throughout the day as the
sea breeze pushes northward. Highest PWATs will be across our SW
Georgia and Florida Big Bend counties so expect the best chances for
convection to be in these areas. MLCAPE across SW GA and the FL Big
Bend is also looking to be around 1500-2500 J/kg, allowing for any
storms that do pop up to quickly gain vertical growth. The primary
hazard today would be localized flash flooding within any downpours
or slow moving storms.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Fairly weak flow aloft with a ridge anchored across the western
Atlantic will lead to fairly routine and diurnally-driven weather
throughout the extended period. Low-level west to southwesterly flow
will prevail allowing the atmospheric column to moisten throughout
the week. The sea breeze and it's associated convective activity
should be able to push further inland with each passing day as
moisture increases. Thursday into Friday a couple subtle shortwaves
quickly move across eastern CONUS, from the central Plains towards
the Mid-Atlantic. These subtle perturbations could act as additional
forcing for ascent, leading to widespread showers and storms further
inland, primarily across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Ridging then
builds back in over the region this weekend and into early next week.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A typical summer day is coming up, complete with seabreeze-focused
air mass thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon.
Early this morning, there are already showers and a few
thunderstorms lining up along the landbreeze near the coast,
particularly at Panama City Beach. Over the next few hours,
convective development could expand far enough north, so there
will be a threat of thunder near the ECP terminal around 14z, if
not sooner.
Similar to Monday, thunderstorms will develop over more inland
areas by early afternoon. The weak southwest flow pattern most
heavily favors TLH and VLD for thunder.
ECP could certainly get another round of thunder this afternoon,
though it could also have thunder confined near the eastern and
northern edge of the 10-mile radius.
DHN and ABY are most in question due to the more randomly
scattered nature of the convection further inland, absent the
focusing seabreeze front.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light west to
southwest flow which will be enhanced near the coast by the
afternoon sea breeze. Convection will be concentrated in the morning
hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Low level flow will remain light and variable, with wind directions
mostly influenced by nearby shower/storm activity and the Gulf coast
sea breezes throughout today before becoming southwesterly by
Wednesday. This will allow increasing moisture throughout the Tri-
State region and a return to more summertime conditions. Meaning,
highs in the 90s each day, heat indices pushing the low to mid 100s
in spots, and increasing chances for late morning through mid
evening thunderstorms. Dispersions and transport winds appear
favorable over the next couple days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of the
summer wet season, riverine flooding is not expected. Isolated
downpours could lead to flash flooding concerns, especially in areas
with poor drainage.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 92 75 92 74 / 50 20 70 10
Panama City 90 78 91 78 / 30 10 50 20
Dothan 93 74 94 73 / 30 20 50 20
Albany 95 75 93 74 / 50 30 70 20
Valdosta 94 74 92 74 / 50 40 80 20
Cross City 91 74 91 73 / 40 30 70 20
Apalachicola 88 78 88 78 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 081125
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
725 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Mid level ridging will hold across the region today as surface high
pressure centered in the western Atlantic extends back towards the
Florida Peninsula. The surface ridge axis will remain just off to
the north of the region today which will allow for the surface
synoptic wind flow to remain light with a general easterly
direction. As the day progresses, the sea breezes will develop and
push inland and they will become the main driver of the wind
direction through the afternoon hours. With plenty of subsidence in
place due to mid level ridging overhead, a pocket of drier air will
remain in place across the mid levels throughout most of today which
will help to create a delayed start in convective initiation once
again.
In general, the latest forecast model soundings show PWAT
values ranging between 1.6 and 1.8 across the area this morning
before gradually increasing over Southwest Florida heading into the
afternoon and evening hours. As the lower level moisture increases
and the sea breezes push inland, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon. With a
prevalent easterly steering flow, most of the activity will
develop over the interior and push towards Southwest Florida as
the afternoon progresses. With 500mb temperatures hovering between
-8 and -8.5C this afternoon combined with ample instability, (SB
Cape between 2500 and 3500 J/kg), this will be supportive of a few
of the thunderstorms this afternoon becoming strong to marginally
severe. DCAPE values look to be slightly higher when compared to
yesterday as well, (900-1100 J/kg), especially over Southwest
Florida. This would be supportive of strong gusty winds with the
strongest thunderstorms this afternoon over Southwest Florida
where the sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide.
Small hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest
thunderstorms with a sufficient source of relatively colder air
aloft. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper
80s along the east coast to the lower 90s over Southwest Florida.
While the weather pattern on Wednesday looks to remain rather
similar, there will be a subtle change as a weakening mid level
disturbance slowly approaches the region from the Bahamas. The
latest guidance suite does show that this disturbance is trending
weaker and may stay off to the south during this time frame as the
mid level ridge tries to hold strong. This scenario would keep
convective initiation mainly sea breeze driven once again. With the
surface ridge axis remaining nearby just to the north, the synoptic
wind flow will remain rather light with a southeasterly component
until the sea breezes develop and take over as the day progresses.
With not much change in atmospheric instability along with plenty
of subsidence aloft due to the mid level ridging creating the
pocket of drier air in the mid levels (PWAT values remaining
between 1.6 and 1.9 inches), some of the convection may become
strong to marginally severe in the afternoon across Southwest
Florida. This would be due to sea breeze boundary collisions as
well as other mesoscale boundary collisions during peak diurnal
heating. The strongest thunderstorms could could once again create
strong gusty winds along with heavy downpours. High temperatures
on Wednesday will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast to
the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A more noticeable change will come in the weather pattern heading
into Thursday as the weak mid level disturbance starts to turn
towards the northwest and push into Southeast Gulf as the day
progresses. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered in
the Atlantic with South Florida remaining on the western periphery
of the high. The synoptic wind flow will remain southeasterly,
however, the latest guidance suite remains in good agreement with
bringing in an increased surge of moisture over South Florida
during this time frame as PWAT values rise above 2 inches across
most of the region. Due to the weak mid level disturbance making
its closest pass during this time frame as it turns northwestward
into the Gulf, 500 mb temperatures look to slightly cool and will
range between -8 and -9C throughout most of the day. While the
extra moisture in place will help to increase the chances of
showers and thunderstorms, the extra source of lift due to the mid
level disturbance may help to increase the chances of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm development. While the typical
diurnal pattern will stay in place, with more moisture surging
into the area there may be some additional showers and
thunderstorms in the morning closer to the east coast metro areas
before activity slides towards the interior and west coast during
the afternoon and evening hours with the southeasterly wind flow.
The highest chances of strong to marginally severe convection will
remain over Southwest Florida due to the proximity of the weak
mid level disturbance combined with sea breeze and other mesoscale
boundary collisions.
Heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
the latest global and ensemble guidance suite looks to have come
into better agreement with showing the weakening mid level
disturbance pushing north out of the area as Friday progresses and
eventually washing out and being absorbed by the ridge this weekend.
At the surface, the ridge axis from the area of high pressure
centered in the Atlantic will remain parked over the Florida
Peninsula and will remain just to the north of the region through
the end of the week and most of the weekend. This will result in a
light southeasterly synoptic wind flow staying in place for
Friday and Saturday and convective initiation will be mainly sea
breeze driven during this time frame. With the mid level steering
flow remaining light out of the east southeast each day, the
typical summertime pattern will take place as convection forms
along the sea breezes as they develop before pushing towards the
interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon and evening through
Sunday. An isolated strong thunderstorm or two will be possible
over Southwest Florida each day through Sunday where the sea
breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide.
High temperatures during Thursday through Sunday will not change
much and will remain typical for this time of year as they will
range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s over
Southwest Florida each afternoon during this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
VFR conditions should prevail for much of the period, except at
KAPF where SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon could lead to temporary vis/cig
reductions. Easterly winds persist starting late morning,
becoming light and variable overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A gentle easterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the
local waters today before shifting and become southeast through the
rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. The exception to
this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may shift and
become west southwesterly each afternoon due to the Gulf breeze
development. Winds may become moderate over the Atlantic waters
towards the end of the week as the pressure gradient across the
region tightens up a bit. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters
will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the
week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the local waters each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30
West Kendall 91 75 90 76 / 30 20 40 30
Opa-Locka 92 79 92 79 / 30 20 40 30
Homestead 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30
N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 89 80 / 40 20 40 20
Pembroke Pines 94 81 93 81 / 40 20 40 20
West Palm Beach 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 40 20
Boca Raton 92 78 91 78 / 40 20 40 20
Naples 92 76 92 76 / 50 40 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV
