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Office: JAX

FXUS62 KJAX 231306
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
906 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...

Areas of low stratus over inland areas should be dissipating over
the next hour and radar shows only a few showers well offshore
waters and west of Valdosta. Otherwise...subsidence aloft from
weak shortwave ridging resulted in lower temps this morning and
drier air moving in from the west. PWATs are lower than prior day
with analysis show values down to about 1.5-1.6 inches.

For rest of today...a vort lobe over western GA will slowly work
east and southeast today and result in an increased chance of
showers and storms in combination with daytime heating. Other
showers and storms expected to form along sea breezes over
northeast FL while slowly pushing inland during the day. The west
coast sea breeze will be a little more dominant given mean layer
steering flow out of the southwest at about 5-10 kt. Still
continued with about a 20-40 percent chance of showers and storms
for most of northeast FL today as well as coastal southeast GA but
elevated chances around 60 percent continued for inland southeast
GA closer to the vort lobe moving into that area tonight. With less in
the way of clouds today...highs will rise to the mid to upper 80s.

Only minor changes to the POPs for today but main update change
was to increase POPs a bit for this evening and overnight mainly
in southeast GA to account for the vort lobe being a driver of
convection. Anticipate convection to not completely dissipate
until at least 06z while slowly decreasing in intensity...but this
will be monitored for possibly extending later until early
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR prevail. Will continue with VCSH or a VCTS at all terminals
at this time except for SGJ due to low confidence in coverage and
intensity this afternoon. Southerly surface winds around 10 knots
will develop at the terminals after 13Z, with the Atlantic sea
breeze pushing across SGJ towards 16Z, SSI towards 18Z and the
Duval County terminals after 18Z. Surface winds will become east
southeasterly following the sea breeze passage, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots through late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

South-southeast winds near 10-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft expect
today. Little chance of storm activity in the waters today.

Rip Currents: Surf near 2 ft expected today giving an elevated
risk of rip currents at area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  69  86  69 /  60  40  80  40
SSI  82  72  82  72 /  20  10  30  30
JAX  87  69  87  70 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  84  71  84  71 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  88  68  89  69 /  30  30  50  30
OCF  88  69  89  70 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Cordero



Office: EYW
Office: MLB FXUS62 KMLB 231357 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 957 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .UPDATE... Morning Cape and Tampa soundings indicate a drying of the local airmass since yesterday with PWAT values of 1.54 to 1.51 inches. GOES Total Precipitable Water product also indicate PWATs generally in the 1.5-1.6 inch across central FL this morning. At the mid levels a short wave north of the Bahamas will lift to the northeast away from the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Low level southeast flow will allow the east coast breeze to push inland with higher coverage along inland sections of the Treasure coast into Osceola and Okeechobee counties with this afternoon's expected convection. Will have pops in the 30-40 percent range south and 20-30 percent range north. Made some slight tweaks to POPs but overall forecast is on track. More sun this morning will lead to diurnal cumulus and warmer temps than recent days. Highs will reach the mid 80s coast to upper 80s interior. && .AVIATION... A drier airmass overall will lead to lower coverage of afternoon showers and and isolated storms as the east coast sea breeze moves westward this afternoon. Expect highest coverage inland from the Treasure coast and south of KMCO-KISM. May remove TEMPO groups and have VCSH for nrn interior terminals this afternoon. && .MARINE... Southeast winds up to 10 knot are expected across the waters today with seas 2-3 ft near shore and up 3-4 ft offshore. Lower coverage of showers expected from recent days making for improved boating conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 70 86 71 / 20 10 30 30 MCO 88 72 91 72 / 30 10 50 40 MLB 84 72 85 72 / 20 20 40 40 VRB 84 71 84 72 / 30 30 40 40 LEE 89 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 40 SFB 88 70 91 72 / 30 10 40 30 ORL 88 72 90 72 / 30 10 50 40 FPR 84 70 84 71 / 30 30 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Volkmer/Combs
Office: MOB FXUS64 KMOB 231741 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1241 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below. && .UPDATE...Based of the latest forecast information, there is now a moderate risk of rip currents along the gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through Thursday night. A high risk of rip currents will be likely starting Friday. && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR conditions through 24.18z, with the exception of MVFR ceilings and visibilties in and around scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon and from mid evening to midnight. Light and variable winds will become mostly south at 6 to 10 knots this afternoon and early this evening then variable 5 knots or less later this evening, overnight and most of Thursday morning. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...A weak mid to upper trof continues over the NW Gulf and eastern Texas combined with a sharp upper ridge stretching from the FL peninsula to the mid MS River valley helping to maintain a persistent onshore flow and continued moisture advection across the north central Gulf states and forecast area through tonight. With this pattern the best mid level forcing or lift is noted over coastal and eastern sections of the forecast area early today shifting inland across the northern and central sections of the forecast area by afternoon and early evening, initiated also from an advancing seabreeze circulation shifting northward over the forecast area by early to mid afternoon. Latest model soundings continue to show PWATS generally from 1.6 to 1.7 inches across the forecast area with good dryness aloft combined with surface based capes ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/KG, thus possibly leading to a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Lapse rates in the boundary layer also range from 6.1 to 6.9 C/KM which also support this reasoning. Gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and periods of very heavy rain can be expected with most of the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Due to a saturated ground surface for most areas some minor flooding will also be possible today and early tonight, especially in urban settings and locations with poor drainage. Stay tuned to local media outlets or NOAA weather radio if threatening weather is approaching your area. Both day and nighttime temps will continue to be moderated somewhat due to persistent moisture aloft in the form cloudiness and precip. Similar to yesterday highs will range from the mid to upper 80s over eastern and coastal sections of the forecast area and the upper 80s to around 90 to the west. 32/EE SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Weak upper trof over the western and central Gulf of Mexico becomes better defined through Friday night. Surface low pressure will likely develop at the base of this trof by early Friday over the southern Gulf of Mexico and begin to lift slowly north by late Friday night. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to where and when this surface low develops, and the direction that it ultimately moves. While models remain different in their solutions, it does appear that a surface low will develop and drift north or northeast across the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico, beginning at the end of the short term period (and continuing into the long term period). The National Hurricane Center currently has a 50 percent chance that the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the central or eastern Gulf over the next 5 days. If this happens, it appears that it will be toward the end of the short term period and into the long term period. In general, for the short term, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue, especially during the afternoon and evening hours over land areas with some scattered convection over the near shore coastal waters during the overnight hours. 12/DS LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The forecast during the long term period will depend almost entirely on the timing and movement of the anticipated Gulf low pressure system. Should this system materialize as anticipated, a movement to the north central or northeast Gulf coast looks most likely. The current ECMWF model run is a little slower in the development and the movement north of the system than previous runs, but continues to move the low to the north central/northeast Gulf coast in the late Saturday into Sunday night timeframe. The GFS model continues to be slower with development and more toward the west coast of Florida through Sunday night. Both the ECMWF and GFS linger the low inland over the southeast US through Tuesday, but in different locations, with the ECMWF over the lower Mississippi River area while the GFS is further east over Georgia and Alabama. Both scenarios would support numerous showers and storms through the long term period with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding over portions of the forecast area. Will continue with the trend of higher rainfall amounts closer to the coast, where latest WPC guidance indicates 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts will be possible through Tuesday. The potential for high surf, minor coastal flooding, and even a slight potential for tornadic storms is there in the long term period as the expected surface low moves into the area, but it is simply too far in advance with the uncertainties to give any specifics on this. We will continue to monitor this developing situation. 12/DS MARINE...With a persistent upper trof to the west combined with a sharp ridge to the east a light to moderate onshore flow will continue over the marine area through early Fri. A better onshore flow is expected by Fri and will continue through early next week in response to a developing surface low advancing northward over the central Gulf. Due to the uncertainty with the track and intensity of the developing low over the Gulf, higher winds and seas will be possible compared to the current forecast. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the marine area both day and night through early Fri followed by better coverage late Fri through early next week due to the developing system over the central Gulf. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week on this developing pattern over the central Gulf. 32/EE && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW FXUS62 KTBW 231758 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 158 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .AVIATION... VFR conditions this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing over the next hour or so. Expecting a sea breeze to develop at the northern coastal terminals over the next hour or two as well, otherwise E/SE flow prevails, becoming light overnight. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 926 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018/ DISCUSSION... Morning sounding shows PWs down to 1.5 inches this morning, with most of that drier air in place above 500mb. Have gotten a break in the clouds though with it, and will therefore expect temperatures to be a couple of degrees warmer this afternoon, with a little later start to the shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Continuing to monitor the trough just south of the Yucatan Channel for possible development, but still looking at the heavy rainfall and possible flooding impacts from it regardless of development or track. Current forecast is on track for today and have no update planned. AVIATION... Light SE winds will turn onshore near the coast, and become more easterly inland as speeds increase to around 8kts. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon generally 20-02z. VFR conditions will generally prevail, though some MVFR conditions could occur in thunderstorms. MARINE... Generally E/SE flow in place over the waters with winds remaining below any cautionary levels through the week. There may be an increase in winds for the weekend as a result of the potential tropical system, but will continue to monitor it for both the possible development and the movement. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Current forecast is on track with all of this and have no major changes for the update planned. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 74 84 73 85 / 30 70 50 70 FMY 73 86 72 85 / 30 70 50 70 GIF 73 87 71 85 / 20 60 50 70 SRQ 73 85 72 84 / 20 60 50 70 BKV 71 88 71 86 / 20 60 50 70 SPG 74 86 73 86 / 20 60 50 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...24/Hubbard
Office: TAE FXUS62 KTAE 231229 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 829 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .UPDATE... No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. Still looks like scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area this afternoon with the highest coverage across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. We are watching with interest an upper level vort max across central Georgia that flared up slow moving convection overnight, resulting in very heavy rainfall from near Columbus to west of Macon. The HRRR forecasts this concentrated area of heavy rainfall to become more scattered this afternoon, which is typical of a vort max embedded within a tropical airmass. We'll have to watch the 12z CAMs closely to see if any of them show any concentrated redevelopment tonight further south. && .PREV DISCUSSION [640 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... In the upper levels a ridge is over the Central U.S. and a trough is over the Northeast. At the surface a weak low is over the Southeast today. With abundant low level moisture across the region another soggy day is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late this morning. Activity will increase during the afternoon hours. 60 to 80 percent POPs are expected for most areas. Immediate coastal areas will be a little drier with 20 to 40 percent POPs. Mostly cloudy skies are expected today with highs in the 80s. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]... This wet pattern will continue through the short term. PW values of 1.5-1.75 inches will be above normal over the next few days and will see PoPs in the 30-70 percent range during the day and more limited at night to 20-50 percent with the loss of daytime heating. The higher rain chances will be further inland. Some minor flooding is possible in the short term with the heavy rainfall and over any areas that storms train. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 70s. While the high temperatures are fairly close to normal, lows are well above normal for this time of year. .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The long term is expected to be wet with the focus on a tropical disturbance and rainfall amounts. Models are still in disagreement with the track of a tropical disturbance that is currently in the Caribbean with guidance spanning the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico as the disturbance moves northward. NHC has given the area a 50% chance of development in the next five days. Regardless of if the system does develop though or it's exact track, significant rainfall amounts are expected with 7 day rainfall totals of 3-7 inches (locally higher amounts possible). Given these amounts, will need to closely monitor the long term for flooding. PoPs remain high through the long term (chance and likely categories) with no dry days in the forecast. Expect highs in the 80s with lows in the 70s. .AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]... IFR CIGs will continue until mid morning. VFR conditions will return by early afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop by late morning. Activity will increase in the afternoon hours. Rain showers will persist overnight tonight in parts of Georgia and Alabama. .MARINE... Initial winds of 10 knots or less will increase for the weekend to at least around 20 knots as a tropical disturbance currently in the Caribbean moves northward into the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. There is still uncertainty in the track of the disturbance and if it will develop into to a tropical system and given this, boaters should monitor the forecast closely. Regardless of development though, we will remain in a wet pattern over the next week. .FIRE WEATHER... A wet pattern will be in place for the next week. No fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... The wet pattern will continue over the next week with widespread rainfall totals of 3-7 inches expected with locally higher amounts. In regards to river flooding, the rivers have been able to handle the rain so far and only a few sites are in action stage or forecast to reach action stage. With additional rainfall over the next week though, this will have to be monitored closely. Besides the rivers, localized minor flooding will be possible the next few days with the flash flood risk increasing for this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 70 87 71 85 / 50 10 40 20 60 Panama City 82 74 83 74 83 / 50 20 40 30 50 Dothan 85 71 86 70 85 / 70 40 70 50 70 Albany 86 71 86 71 85 / 80 40 60 50 70 Valdosta 86 70 88 70 85 / 60 20 70 50 70 Cross City 86 70 88 70 84 / 40 10 50 40 60 Apalachicola 82 73 84 73 82 / 20 10 20 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DVD NEAR TERM...McD SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...McD MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...Fieux
Office: MFL FXUS62 KMFL 231741 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 141 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .AVIATION... Scattered to numerous SHRA are forming over interior and west coast sections as well as near PBI. A few TSRA may also develop near the APF area the next few hours. These showers may bring MVFR conditions or brief IFR if they move over any terminals. Kept MIA and FLL areas mostly dry but a brief shower cannot be ruled out. Expect prevailing VFR and ESE winds 8-12 knots outside of showers. A brief period of dry wx tonight before more showers develop or move into the area from the southeast Thursday after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 73 84 73 82 / 30 30 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 74 83 / 30 40 60 70 Miami 74 85 74 82 / 20 40 60 70 Naples 72 85 72 84 / 20 70 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && AVIATION...22/KS