fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 141715
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1215 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Increasing Fog potential into the Weekend
- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to
Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and the Northern
Suwannee Valley, Likely to Expand in Coverage Next Week
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast FL Beaches Today
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
High pressure builds into the region from the NW this afternoon,
then settles overhead NE FL/SE GA tonight. Mostly clear skies are
expected with mild afternoon temps this afternoon in the 70s,
followed by cool overnight lows in the 40s inland, and lower 50s
along the Atlantic Coast. Only weather impacts are expected to be
locally dense fog potential over inland areas late tonight and
early Saturday morning as winds become near calm and temps cool
below afternoon mixed dew point temp values. Moderate confidence
in locally dense fog potential, but low confidence if it becomes
organized enough to require any dense fog advisories around
sunrise Saturday. Latest fog guidance is suggesting along the
US17/301 corridors of SE GA and between the I-95 and I-75
corridors across most of inland NE FL, still mostly suggesting
locally dense fog, which would likely remain below dense fog
advisory criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
High pressure will continue to trek across the area on Saturday,
eventually exiting south of the area during the overnight hours
into Sunday as another frontal boundary pushes in from the north.
The dry weather will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s for most locations on
Saturday and Sunday as mostly clear skies are expected each day.
Cooler temps on Saturday along the coast thanks to the onshore
northeast flow bringing in cooler marine air. Winds shift to
become southwesterly on Sunday as the next frontal boundary nears
the area. During the evening hours, Lows will be mostly in the
lower to mid 50s across inland locations and mid to upper 50s
along the coast.
Light winds, clear skies, and lingering low-level moisture from
the Gulf will bring the potential for patchy to areas of fog
during early hours on Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Warmer temperatures are expected to develop over the upcoming
week after the passage of a frontal boundary at the start of the
week. Behind the fropa, high pressure will station itself over the
area which will continue the dry spell. This will lead for the
drought conditions across the area to continue and likely expand
in areal coverage during the upcoming week.
The gradual warming trend will see daytime highs rise into the
lower 80s for most inland locations, with upper 70s along the
coast for most days of the upcoming week. Fog development is
likely to occur each night/morning through midweek as dewpoints
will also begin to trend upward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR with SKC through the evening hours along with light NE winds
less than 10 knots. Cooling boundary layer tonight and calm winds
will lead to increased fog potential with IFR VSBYS now introduced
into all TAF sites, but confidence only high enough for LIFR conds
at VQQ for now, but may have to be expanded to GNV/JAX/CRG in the
09-13Z time frame (4am-8am) in later TAF packages. Fog should lift
and dissipate by the 14-15Z time frame on Saturday Morning with
VFR and SKC conds through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
High pressure will build into the region through Saturday. On
Sunday the high pressure will shift southward which will allow for
breezy southerly-southwesterly winds to develop over the local
waters ahead of the next dry frontal passage that is expected on
Sunday night or early Monday morning. High pressure will re-build
into the region for most of next week.
Rip Currents: Low Risk of Rips into the weekend with surf/breakers
generally 1-2 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Dry weather conditions this weekend as high pressure remains
overhead for much of the weekend ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary on Sunday. Min RH values expected in the upper 20% to lower
30% range across southeast Georgia Saturday afternoon. RH values
improve briefly on Sunday as winds shift to become southwesterly
ahead of a weak cold front. Lower RH values make a return on Monday
over southeast Georgia behind the cold front. Dry conditions
continue during the upcoming week as showers are not expected,
leading for the severe to extreme drought conditions to persist and
likely to expand in areal coverage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 41 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 51 74 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 45 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 52 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 45 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 46 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 142019
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
319 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
- Patchy late night/early morning fog that could become locally
dense is possible through the weekend.
- A gradual warming trend continue through the weekend and into
next week, bringing temperatures slightly above normal by mid
next week or so.
- Other than some very slow chances for onshore moving showers,
rain remains out of the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...The weak frontal boundary that pushed
through today washes out, as the center of high pressure over the
eastern US is driven south towards Florida by a low pressure
system well to our north. This will reinforce dry and quiet
weather, but continue the potential for late night/early morning
fog. Conditions still aren't the most favorable between the very
dry air and a gentle overnight breeze, but once again model
soundings show a decent surface inversion setting up, and winds
could go light up north, allowing for the development of patchy
fog which could become locally dense, reducing visibility to less
than a mile at times. Highest chances (such as they are at around
10-20%) are north of the I-4 corridor. As for the rest of the
forecast, afternoon highs have returned to near normal in the
M-U70s, and overnight lows are almost there but remain a few
degrees below normal in the L-M50s for most, except the southern
coastal corridor which are near normal in the L60s. Northeast
winds 5-10 mph this afternoon settle to northerly around 5 mph
overnight.
The Weekend...Dry and quiet conditions continue. The surface high
is shunted south, bringing the ridge ridge axis across Central
Florida Saturday, then the high slides offshore Sunday in response
to the passing low pressure system. This will take local winds
for a bit of a ride, causing them to shift from northerly Saturday
morning to westerly by Sunday morning. Can't completely rule out
a light onshore moving shower along the southern coast Saturday,
but chances are very low (10% or less). Once flow becomes offshore
Sunday rain chances are effectively zero. The only weather of
note will be the continued potential for late night/early morning
fog. Conditions still don't appear favorable for widespread fog,
but patchy fog that could become locally dense reducing visibility
to less than a mile is possible. While Saturday morning's highest
fog potential is generally limited to north of I-4, chances
expand southward Sunday across much of the interior as the ridge
axis settles across the area and dew points increase a bit. Near
normal daytime temperatures with highs in the U70s-L80s, but
overnight lows will remain on the cooler side for most in the
L-M50s, up to the L50s-60 along the coastal corridor (which
actually shave off a degree or two thanks to offshore flow).
Next Week...Finally looking like we have some agreement the weak
front associated with the passing low pressure system will sag
into at least parts of Central Florida, but whether it arrives
Monday or Tuesday and how far south it gets are still questions
that need answering. Either way, chances for rainfall with the
front don't look good as PWATs only increase to 1.2" at most, just
above the climatological daily mean/median, and model soundings
show a well capped environment. Chances for rain are still minimal
Tuesday and Wednesday but not zero (10% or less) as the front
washes out and weak high pressure builds over the area, shifting
flow more onshore and increasing low level moisture, which could
support some onshore moving showers. A gradual warm up will
continue, resulting in afternoon temperatures a bit above normal
with highs back in the L80s or so, and near normal lows in the
U60s-L60s earlier in the week creeping to the L-U60s later in the
week. Confidence quiet and mostly dry conditions will continue
Thursday is pretty high, but beyond that forecast confidence
drops considerably due to uncertainty in the evolution of the next
big weather system. A sharp trough swinging digging down to the
south central US is forecast to spin up a surface low pressure
system and pull it northeastward cross the eastern US late week
and into the weekend, but when and if the associated front makes
it to Florida sometime between Friday and Sunday is up in the air.
However, given the source area of the low (i.e. not polar/arctic)
don't expect a wicked cool down like we just had at this time. In
fact for now, NBM continues to call for warmer then normal but
otherwise quiet conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Generally favorable boating conditions. The center of high
pressure over the the eastern US shifts south over Florida
Saturday, then pushes offshore Sunday ahead of an approaching
front, which is forecast to sag into portions of Central Florida
and the local Atlantic waters early next week. Weak high pressure
builds over the area midweek as the front washes out.
NE winds at 5-15 kts today will veer through most of the compass
Saturday, from NE-ENE at 5-10 kts in the morning to SSE-E at 5-10
kts in the evening, and SSE-SW at 5-15 kts late overnight. Winds
Sunday settle to WSW-SW at generally 5-15 kts, pushing to 15-20
kts offshore of the Daytona and Space Coasts. Winds become shifty
at 10 kts or less again Monday and Tuesday as the weak front drops
into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters. Seas generally
1-3 ft, up to 2-4 ft this evening and Sunday. Some light, shallow
marine sprinkles are possible across the Treasure Coast and
portions of the Brevard waters today and Saturday, and again on
Tuesday and Wednesday, but heavy rain and lightning storms are
currently not forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Light northerly winds become variable at times as high pressure
settles across central Florida. Peak winds are forecast around 10
kts or less along the coast this afternoon. There is low confidence
for fog development near LEE/DAB late tonight and into early
Saturday morning, and have kept mention out of the TAF for now.
Otherwise, VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 55 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 56 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 60 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 60 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 55 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 57 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 59 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Law
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 141905
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
105 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
- Areas of dense fog will develop late tonight into Saturday
along and south of U.S. Highway 84, including Mobile Bay and
the Mississippi Sound.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
A vast majority of the models, including all of the Convective
Allowing Models (CAMs) are showing dense fog development late
tonight into Saturday. While there are slight differences in the
location of the fog, a general consensus is along and south of
U.S. Highway 84. We will need to monitor the development through
the overnight hours to determine if the Dense Fog Advisory needs
to be expanded in coverage.
A dry forecast period will otherwise persist through noon Thursday
as a dry northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal over the
weekend though early next week, followed by upper ridging building
over the region. An ejecting upper low pressure area over the
California/Mexico border Tuesday evolves into an upper trough over
the southern Rockies, and lifts northeastward over the southern
Great Plains and Mid-Lower Mississippi regions Thursday afternoon
into Friday. There remains some timing and placement differences
between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS being about 6-12 hours
faster, as the ECMWF reforms an upper closed low over the
southerly plains essentially slowing down the trough. Regardless,
did not make any adjustments to the National Blend of Models
(NBM) at this time and we still expect a chance for showers and
storms to move across the forecast area late Thursday through
Friday.
Both high and low temperatures will continue to trend higher over
the weekend through the middle of next week, with middle to upper
70s on Saturday, and middle 70s to lower 80s Sunday through
Thursday. Lows tonight in the middle 40s to lower 50s will become
well above normal over the weekend through next week, and could
be as high as 12 to 17 degrees above normal Tuesday night through
Thursday night due to more established southerly wind flow.
Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through mid week in
this pattern. The rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the
risk may briefly increase to near MODERATE levels by late Sunday
afternoon across the Florida panhandle beaches. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR flight category prevails for the rest of the day into early
this evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility may develop late
evening into the early overnight as patches of fog, locally dense,
begin to develop across the southern half of the area. Patchy to
areas of dense fog materialize as we head through the rest of the
overnight into daybreak Saturday, likely resulting in IFR to VLIFR
ceilings and visibilities in spots, particularly across coastal
counties. Fog gradually lifts in the hours following daybreak, and
VFR flight category will once again prevail across the region by
mid to late morning. Winds will remain generally light and
variable today, calming tonight. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Dense fog development is expected late tonight into Saturday for
Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. Dense fog may advect further
south into a small portion of the Coastal Alabama offshore zone.
Light and variable winds will occur through Saturday morning
becoming light southerly to southwesterly Saturday afternoon. A
light southwesterly flow Saturday night shifts westerly Sunday
into Monday and then back to a light southerly to southwesterly
flow Monday afternoon into midweek. Southerly flow increases to
near advisory levels late in the week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 52 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 55 74 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 57 73 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 49 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 48 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 44 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ052-053-
055-056-059-060-261>265.
Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ266.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201-203-
205.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ075-076-
078-079.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Saturday for
GMZ630>632.
&&
$$
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 141847
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a medium chance of patchy ground fog across the Nature
Coast tonight/tomorrow morning and a low chance elsewhere.
- There is a medium to high chance of fog areawide beginning with
Sunday morning and lasting through at least mid-week.
- Otherwise, sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions
continue. Temperatures will run above normal next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
An upper-level ridge remains to the west of the Florida peninsula as
a broad area of surface high pressure stretches from the mid-
Atlantic region to the central Gulf coast. A very light ENE
background flow continues at the surface in response. This flow is
so light that the sea breeze is beginning to develop along the
coast, turning the winds onshore. However, the thermal gradient
between the land and the water is not drastic. Thus, this breeze
is relatively light overall.
This setup is pretty static for the next few days. The upper-level
ridge will slowly propagate eastward, but generally looks to flatten
through early next week. The surface high will sink farther south
over Florida in response, gradually veering the low-level flow to a
more ESE direction by early next week. This will allow for gradual
warm air and moisture advection in the lowest km or so. As a weak
front approaches early next week and falls apart with upper-level
support remaining well the north, there could be just enough
moisture for a few sprinkles. However, the more likely impact will
be morning fog.
While there was some fog this morning across the Nature Coast (and
likely some more again tomorrow), conditions will be much more
favorable across most of the region by Sunday. Lasting through
probably much of next week, the light winds, mostly clear skies,
efficient radiational cooling, and sufficient low-level moisture
favor the develop of radiational fog each day. This is the primary
weather hazard for the next week.
Otherwise, weather conditions look to be pretty benign. Most days
should be sunny. Afternoons will continue to get warmer, but the
evening and overnight periods will feel pretty nice. There are no
significant changes to this pattern for the next seven days. &&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Quiet, VFR weather prevails through the TAF period. A low potential
(around 10%) for some shallow/patchy fog remains tomorrow morning.
Given the low probability, there is still no mention in TAFs at this
time. The probability of fog will increase for subsequent mornings
starting with Sunday and lasting into next week. Otherwise, no
significant aviation concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Light winds and seas continue as dry, high pressure remains in
place. Some land-based fog could meander over inshore waters during
the early morning hours for the next few days reducing visibilities
briefly. This will quickly dissipate once the run rises.
Conditions otherwise remain nice for the next several days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Dry weather continues for the next week, with an increasing likelihood
for at least patchy fog across the area beginning on Sunday morning.
Some patchy fog is possible across the Nature Coast tomorrow morning
as well. Otherwise, fire weather concerns are low. Despite the drier
weather, RH values are increasing and winds remain light. Red flag
conditions are not anticipated at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 58 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 79 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 76 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 141818
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
- Drought will persist and/or worsen with no rainfall expected
over the next several days combined with warming temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday.
Meanwhile, an elongated surface high pressure center this
afternoon stretches from north Georgia eastward into South
Carolina. This feature will settle directly southward across I-10
on Saturday morning, before reaching the northeast Gulf on
Saturday afternoon.
This will support another night of ideal radiational cooling,
given clear skies and the dry air mass.
Otherwise, NE to E low-level flow across Northeast Florida this
evening should push enough shallow Atlantic moisture inland
tonight to see areas of fog around sunrise Saturday along the
Suwannee Valley and inland of the northern Nature Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
The tail end of a dry cold front will brush across Alabama and
Georgia on Sunday. To its south, low-level westerly flow will
start to increase on Saturday night and become gusty during the
day on Sunday. In contrast to the dry air mass that is currently
over our service area, surface dewpoints from western Alabama
westward are in the moister 55F-60F range. So once low-level
westerly flow kicks in, that moister air mass will spread
eastward. Yet the dry cold front on Sunday will never really push
a cooler and drier air mass any further south than the U.S. 82
corridor (Eufaula-Albany-Tifton). So for most of the region, once
the moister air arrives, it will be in place through most of next
week. The greatest impact will be in propping up nighttime and
morning temperatures. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are also
a climatologically favored range for early morning fog in the cold
season, so there look for more foggy mornings next week.
Surface high pressure will pass by north of the region on Monday,
then move east of the Carolinas into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This
will bring a turn to low-level southeast flow, keeping the air
mass on the warmer and modestly muggy side.
A longwave ridge axis that will hang out over Texas this weekend
will move east next week, passing directly across our region
around next Wednesday and Wednesday night. Once it moves off to
our east on Thursday, we will start to come under southwest-west
flow aloft on Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately for those wanting
rain, the jet stream will steer a wet system well north of our
region around next Friday, across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
This far south, the most likely scenario is for isolated low-
topped showers to line up in low-level southerly flow over the
Gulf and spread inland across the Panhandle and SE Alabama. There
are some notable outlier ensemble members and the 00z ECMWF that
extend a wet front further south, bringing a better coverage of
beneficial rain next Thursday night and Friday. For now, those
beneficial scenarios are outliers, so low chance PoPs are
adequate for areas west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Smoke plumes associated with wildfires across southern Georgia may
cause localized reduced vsbys around ABY through this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Gentle northeast breezes this afternoon will become light and
variable on Saturday, as a high pressure center settles directly
over the waters. Moderate westerly breezes will develop Saturday
night and Sunday in response to the tail end of a cold front
brushing across Alabama and Georgia. Southeast breezes will
emerge late Monday and gradually increase a little each day
through Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
A very dry air mass will linger on Saturday, particularly over
Southwest Georgia where Relative Humidity will bottom out in the
25-30 percent range on Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, the tail end
of a dry cold front will brush by across Alabama and Georgia. The
air mass will moisten a little on Sunday, but proximity of the dry
front will support gusty westerly winds. High pressure will pass
across the districts on Monday. Once it moves east on Tuesday, a
turn to southeast winds will moisten the air mass further.
Areas of fog are expected Saturday morning along the Suwannee
Valley and inland of the northern Nature Coast. On Sunday
morning, patchy fog is possible along and south of the U.S. 84
corridor.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
No rainfall is expected through at least next Wednesday. Any
rainfall later next week will not be hydrologically significant.
Therefore, drought will persist and/or worsen. For more
information, see our local drought statement at
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 46 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 53 74 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 46 77 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 43 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 43 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 42 77 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 53 73 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 141724
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1224 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
- The dry stretch of weather will continue across most areas
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
- Temperatures will continue on a slow moderating trend heading
into the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
No changes to the short or long term forecast. Partly to mostly
sunny skies in place across South FL this afternoon with a light
NNE breeze. High temps this afternoon still trending to the upper
70s and lower 80s. Enjoy!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
Mid level troughing will gradually amplify near the region through
today and Saturday. Since the trough axis still looks to remain just
to the east of the region, this will promote a northwesterly wind
flow aloft through the first half of the weekend. At the surface,
high pressure holds strong today keeping a north to northeasterly
wind flow in place throughout the day. Some lower level moisture
advection will slowly start to take place across the region with
the northeasterly wind flow as PWAT values rise and range between
0.7 and 0.9 inches across most areas.
Heading into tonight and Saturday, a mid level vort max will
gradually slide over the area or just to the east of the region. At
the surface, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite are in
relatively good agreement in bringing a dissipating backdoor frontal
boundary through the region tonight into Saturday morning. Behind
this front, a reinforcing area of high pressure quickly builds over
the region on Saturday afternoon. The latest model soundings do show
the very slow lower level moisture advection continuing through
tonight and into Saturday as PWATs slowly continue to rise and
they will hover between 0.8 and 1.0 inches through Saturday.
However, with plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place
combined with the surface frontal boundary being in a dissipating
state, mainly dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s elsewhere. These
high temperatures will continue to moderate heading into Saturday as
they will rise into the lower 80s across most of South Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
During the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of
next week, a mid level zonal flow gradually becomes established over
the region during this this time frame. At the surface, high
pressure will remain the main synoptic feature that will dominate
the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week as it shifts into the western
Atlantic. While most areas will continue to remain dry through
Tuesday, there will still be lower level moisture advection taking
place as the light and sea breeze driven winds on Sunday and
Monday become more easterly on Tuesday. This increase in moisture
may create the potential for an isolated shower or two to develop
mainly across the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast along
the breeze early next week. Any shower that does develop will be
brief and short lived as plenty of dry air in the mid to upper
levels will keep shower development low topped. High temperatures
on Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the lower 80s across
most of the area. On Tuesday, high temperatures will range from
the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across
the interior.
Heading towards the middle of the week, the latest guidance suite
remains in relatively good agreement with mid level ridging over the
Southwest Gulf gradually expanding eastward over the Florida
Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic will continue remain in place and South Florida will remain
on the western periphery of that high. The combination of surface
high pressure and the mid level ridging building in aloft, mainly
dry and warm conditions will continue through the middle of the
week. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally range from the
lower 80s along the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over interior
Southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR through the 18Z TAF period. NNE winds around 10 kts this
afternoon, with a brief NW wind at APF mid to late afternoon.
Light and variable winds overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
A moderate north to northeasterly breeze will continue across most
of the local waters today. These winds will gradually become
easterly across most of the local waters on Saturday, however, over
the Gulf waters they may shift and become north northwesterly in the
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters
will remain at 2 to 4 feet through the first half of the weekend
before subsiding to 2 feet or less for the second half of the
weekend and into early next week. Seas across the Gulf waters will
remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025
A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the first half of the weekend as onshore flow
persists.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 66 80 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 62 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 65 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 65 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 67 79 66 81 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 67 80 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 66 83 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 67 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 67 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 60 83 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
