Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 260900
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross from west to east this morning. A
second stronger cold front will follow this afternoon and
evening. Low pressure will linger over southeastern Canada while
high pressure builds across the Midwest and Tennessee Valley
through Friday. High pressure will move overhead Saturday, then
move offshore Sunday into early next week as the next system
approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm front has made steady progress northward early this
morning having cleared most of the fcst area except northern MD
counties. Vsby have improved in most areas and have canceled the
Dense Fog Advisory for those areas, except in western MD and
portions of eastern WV. Showers are now confined to areas east
of I-95 and will exit the fcst area later this morning. Temps
will be very mild this morning, quickly rising through the 60s.
Even a chance of hitting 70 before cdfnt crosses the area. Winds
will be gradually shifting from S to SW later this morning, but
true cold front and moisture discontinuity do not cross the
area until 18Z. Bufkit soundings show significant uncertainty on
the onset timing of gusty WNW post-frontal winds with the real
push of winds not until perhaps this evening due to a very
strong low- level inversion/poor mixing heights all day. The
only exception is at the higher elevs, where the pressure
gradient and strong CAA winds support borderline gusts to around
40 kt tonight. A Wind Advisory was issued earlier for the
higher elevs from roughly 00Z Thu through 13Z Thu. Turning
sharply colder tonight and becoming breezy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main story for Thanksgiving Day and Fri will be the much colder
and blustery conditions. The strongest winds will be Fri with
freq gusts to 35 mph expected. Winds begin to subside Fri night
as high pressure starts building in. Cold with lows in the 20s,
teens in the mountains and wind chills in the teens and single
digits respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will promote dry conditions Saturday. Temperatures
will be chilly and nearly 10 degrees below average for late
November with highs in the lower to middle 40s. The high pressure
will move to the east Saturday night into Sunday to allow for a warm
front to approach from the southwest. With low level cold air in
place early Sunday and some moisture running overtop of it from
the southwest, a light cold rain could evolve from west to east
across the region Sunday. A few places in the northwest and west
could encounter some snowflakes with light rain or drizzle Sunday
morning. Sunday's highs will be chilly but not as cold as Saturday
with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 40s and perhaps low
50s near the Chesapeake Bay.
A cold front is expected to move across the region late Sunday and
Sunday night. Additional rain showers could form along it before dry
air moves in from the northwest as high pressure builds in on the
backside of the cold front. Some overrunning moisture over
the cold front could allow for a slight chance or chance of
additional rain showers Monday and Tuesday as well. Temperatures
will remain below average with highs in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will come to an end later today. Significant uncertainty
as to the onset of gusty WNW winds this afternoon or tonight.
Once stronger winds aloft begin to mix down, expect gusty winds
through Fri. The strongest winds are expected Fri when gusts to
30 kt are expected.
VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. If a persistent
batch or moderate intensity of rain moves across MRB, there
could be a reduction to MVFR or IFR in ceilings. Winds
northwest becoming southeast and light Saturday and Saturday
night. Winds mainly south to southwest Sunday, before shifting
to northwest with cold frontal passage late Sunday into Sunday
night.
&&
.MARINE...
Significant uncertainty as to the onset of gusty WNW winds due
to strong inversion. Think the probability of gales is for today
or tonight, the moderate to high on Fri. Winds should drop off
below SCA Saturday afternoon.
No marine hazards expected Saturday through Sunday night. Winds
northwest becoming southeast Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
southerly 5 to 10 knots Sunday, then shifting west to northwest 10
knots Sunday night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for
MDZ008.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
MDZ501-509-510.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for MDZ502.
VA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
WVZ501-503-505.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for WVZ050-051-
504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
531-538-539.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ530-531-535-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ532>534-
537-540>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
