Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 191512
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1012 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather conditions are expected through Thursday with another
wave of low pressure set to approach from the mid-Mississippi and
Ohio River Valleys Friday. Rain chances will continue through early
Saturday as the front slowly exits with high pressure returning
Sunday into Monday. Another wave of low pressure and front look to
cross the area Tuesday into the middle part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A pretty impressive satellite imagery as of 1005am with a
departing swirl of low pressure exiting off the NJ/northern
Delmarva coast and some clearing along and south of the I-64
corridor. Cloud cover will remain firm over the area today due
in part to high pressure over New England wedging south along
the eastern face of the Appalachians and low pressure departing
offshore. This will lead to a weak/hybrid CAD setup in
locations east of the Alleghenies with a north/northeasterly
component to the wind.
With cloud cover in place expect temperatures to hold steady in
the low to mid 50s with 40s over the higher terrain. Portions
of the central VA Piedmont, especially south of I-64 in southern
Nelson, Albemarle, and Augusta counties could see highs in the
upper 50s. Breaks of sunshine are expected in these areas
through mid- afternoon before cloud cover fills back in later
on.
Cloud cover will remain persistent overnight with some areas of
patchy fog. This is due largely in part to remnant low-level
moisture and light/calm winds as the wedge of high pressure
settles overhead. Fog should be patchy in nature although could
become a bit more widespread south of of I-66/US-50 if clouds
can thin out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain wedged down the east side of the
Appalachians through late this week leading to a persistently
cloudy pattern and cooler temperatures.
Low pressure will take shape over the mid section of the
country, eventually following a similar path Friday into
Saturday. This system overall is a bit larger with a bit more
moisture, so it seems plausible that rain could last a little
longer. Rainfall amounts remain to be seen and will depend on
exactly where the best forcing sets up north of the low.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure associated with the southern stream should be moving
east through the day Saturday with the cold front pushing through as
well. Some guidance keeps Saturday dry closer to the Mason-Dixon,
with rain chances remaining further south. For temps.,mid to
upper 50s (upper 40s mountains) are expected Saturday as winds
change back to the west to northwest direction after the cold
front pushes through. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in
the mid 30s and low 40s.
Sunshine makes its way back into the forecast Sunday as high
pressure settles over the central Appalachian region. The high will
slide off the VA/NC coast Monday with another front set to approach
from the Ohio River Valley by the middle part of next week. Upslope
rain and snow showers will likely return to the mountains Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main impact to aviation today looks to be low ceilings. This is
is due part to departing high pressure of the NJ/Delmarva coast
and wedging high pressure east of the Appalachians. Some breaks
in the clouds have been noted south of KCHO toward KLYH and KCHO
where a mash-up of VFR to MVFR cigs remain. Elsewhere within
the corridor MVFR to IFR conditions continue to prevail with
cigs hovering between 600-1200 feet between IAD, DCA, and BWI.
Expect a bounce between MVFR and IFR through the 18z/1pm TAF
period at the big 3 airports as well as at MRB and MTN. CHO has
the greatest likelihood of VFR conditions for much of the day
with the breaks in the cloud deck south. Winds will be light out
of the north to northeast through tonight. Ceilings may attempt
to lift a bit later this afternoon into this evening before
lowering again late tonight into Thursday.
Winds will shift around to the southeast Thursday and this
should help lift ceilings again heading into the afternoon.
Periods of lower ceilings are possible ahead of a warm front
Thursday night through Friday with a few showers developing.
Steady light southeast to south winds should keep ceilings
mostly in the MVFR range, though brief periods of lower
conditions are possible at times especially west/north. Lower
conditions are likely as additional rain moves in late Friday
into Friday night.
Cannot rule out restrictions in any lingering precip Saturday. Winds
switch to the north and northwest Saturday into Sunday behind the
cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will shift around to the north today in the wake of
departing low pressure. These winds may channel especially over
the wider waters of the mid/lower Chesapeake Bay. SCAs have been
issued south of Drum Point MD, but the main channel further
north up to about the Bay Bridge as well as the lower tidal
Potomac River may be close as well this afternoon and evening.
A cool high pressure wedge will remain entrenched over the
waters through Thursday with generally light winds expected. The
wedge begins to break late Thursday into Friday as low pressure
approaches from the west. This will turn winds to the southeast
and south. Winds may increase to near SCA levels ahead of the
low (depending on track/strength) late Friday, and in northerly
channeling that may begin late Friday night.
Breezy SCA level north to northwest winds are likely in the
wake of a cold front Saturday. Sub-SCA level winds are expected
Sunday into Monday next week with high pressure nearby.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/EST
MARINE...DHOF/CPB
