Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 061441
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
941 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly return over the weekend before a
strong cold front tracks across the region Sunday evening.
Canadian high pressure will build in early next week while a
potential wave of low pressure passes by to the south. Another
clipper-like system tracks across the area by the middle of
next week. A secondary cold front moves through by Thursday
before high pressure slowly approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy ice will continue on elevated/untreated surfaces through at
least 11am as temperatures are slow to rise above freezing. Special
Weather Statements continue through 11am for portions of northeast
VA and the central VA Piedmont where areas of freezing drizzle and
freezing fog continue linger.
Overall expecting a fair weather day as high pressure briefly builds
back into the region. Cloud cover will be slow to erode, especially
east of the Blue Ridge as moisture remains prevalent within the low
levels. This is evident per the 12z IAD and RNK soundings which have
RH values between 70-90 percent 1-4KFT off the surface. This added
low level moisture banked against the eastern face of the Blue Ridge
has resulted in a combination of freezing fog and drizzle across
portions of the southern Shenadoah Valley/central VA Piedmont
and the immediate I-95 corridor this morning. This in
conjunction with snow melt from yesterday which will lead to
continued slick conditions for those traveling/walking on
elevated/untreated surfaces (i.e bridges, ramps, overpasses, and
sidewalks). Low level moisture will gradually scour out mid to
late afternoon with a low amplitude shortwave passing through
and high pressure anchoring nearby this evening. Winds will
remain light and variable, so not too much in the way of drying
although the gradually clearing skies and added solar insolation
should help especially in areas that did not see more than 2
inches of snowfall.
A low amplitude shortwave will pass through the area later this
afternoon and evening. This may touch off a light wintry mix of
snow/sleet over the Alleghenies with perhaps a flurry/sprinkle
to east. No widespread mountain impacts are expected at this
time as moisture appears meager at best. Most will stay dry as
the column continues to dry out with just a few passing clouds
into the mid- late afternoon period. Highs today will remain
below normal. Temperatures look to climb 5 to 10 degrees warmer
this afternoon compared to yesterday with most locations in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. This is 3-7 degrees below the seasonal
normas for this time of year. Mountain locations will remain in
the upper 20s and low 30s. Skies will try and clear out
overnight with high pressure nearby. Expect widespread lows in
the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An Arctic boundary currently analyzed over the upper Great
Lakes back across the northern Rockies looms large toward the
end of the weekend. This ushers in another pattern shift heading
into the upcoming work week. However, Sunday largely brings
tranquil weather to the region. Weak high pressure remains
nearby with high temperatures remaining fairly close to today's
readings. The forecast of low/mid 40s is around 4 to 8 degrees
below climatology for early December standards.
The atmosphere gradually moistens ahead of the next frontal
system. This will support an increase in cloud cover throughout
the day. Any chances of precipitation are locked over the
Alleghenies which is to be expected given very low Froude number
(<0.50). This variable highlights the ability for precipitation
to spillover to the east. Perhaps a quick inch is possible
along and west of the Alleghenies. However, the short duration
and less than optimal moisture content would limit the
potential.
The focus then shifts over to the blustery post-frontal west-
northwesterly winds on Sunday night. This comes with low
temperatures again in the 20s, with mid/upper teens in the
mountains. Winds have trended down relative to yesterday's
guidance with gusts up to around 15 to 25 mph, locally a bit
higher across the terrain. A cold advection regime ushers in
another shot of modified Arctic air to the region. Forecast
highs will be in the 30s (20s for the mountains). The added wind
factor should lower wind chills into the single digits over
mountain locales.
As the dome of high pressure sets up over New England, will need
to monitor a quick moving shortwave that tracks across the
Tennessee Valley toward the Virginia Tidewater region. As the
associated lift crosses the renewed cold air mass, some light
snow potential again looms, particularly near I-64. Trends will
continue to be monitored. The anticyclone center moves overhead
on Monday night making for a very cold night. Forecast lows are
likely to be in the teens, with some spotty low 20s in the
urbanized hubs and closer to the Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will be dominated by a potent trough over
eastern Canada, which will repeatedly throw shortwaves across the
region through the end of next week.
For Tuesday, still expecting temperatures to be below average for
this time of year, but winds turn out of the south and will at least
have them a few degrees warmer than Monday. Expect highs in the
upper 30s for most and near freezing on the ridges. Winds will gust
to around 20 mph though, so it still won't feel very pleasant out.
Wednesday through the end of next week will bring about several
chances for some precipitation to the region. Lots of uncertainty
with when and how much however, as well as with the exact type of
precipitation. Generally speaking though, Wednesday's system should
be warm enough for rain outside of the mountains. However, the
system that may impact the region towards the end of the week may
have more cold air to work with. Won't delve into details at this
time, as it is a very complex upper-level pattern with lots of
moving parts in the northern and southern branches of the jet
stream. It is important to note that this period could also remain
entirely dry as well, so nothing is set in stone yet at this point.
Stay tuned to the latest forecast for more details as we get a
little closer and have the pieces in place over the CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Continuing to see widespread IFR to LIFR conditions within the
corridor as ample low level moisture remains. Terminals further west
toward I-81 have started to see slight improvements with a mix
of MVFR and even some pockets of VFR as skies begin to clear.
Low ceilings will linger in the I-95 corridor through at least
16z/11am with a gradual return back to MVFR and VFR later this
afternoon as the OVC deck scours out. Freezing fog will also
remain an issue at SHD, BWI, IAD, CHO, and MTN over the next 2-3
hours with vsbys bouncing between 1/4-4 miles. Light wintry
precipitation has also been noted under the radaR beam north of
BWI although the bulk of what has fallen has ended or is exiting
northeast MD early this morning. Any improvements will not
until the early afternoon. Winds remain light with VFR
conditions into the evening and night.
VFR conditions continue into Sunday and Monday as well, albeit
with a pattern shift. An Arctic boundary crosses the the area
Sunday evening leading to a return of blustery west-
northwesterly winds. Winds become northerly on Monday as high
pressure builds over New England. A wave passes by to the south
could bring light snow to central Virginia, but confidence is
low at this time.
A brief lull in precipitation chances is expected on Tuesday,
between a pair of weather systems, which will lead to VFR
conditions. Also expect winds out of the south around 5 to 10 knots,
gusting to 20 knots at times.
Clouds increase in coverage overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as a
clipper low approaches from our NW. Some showers are possible,
potentially leading to some restrictions later in the day on
Wednesday. Winds will again be out of the S to SSW, but about 5
knots higher than Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
With a frontal system over the Gulf Stream and additional
boundaries back over the Midwest, the local area is dominated by
weak high pressure, Light gradients will keep wind gusts under
10 knots through much of the weekend. A much stronger cold front
pushes across the waters by Sunday night. Winds become
northwesterly before shifting to northerly on Monday. Small
Craft Advisories will be needed late Sunday night through most
of Monday. A few gales are not out of the question for the more
southern waters.
Winds turn southerly and increase Tuesday and Wednesday. Small Craft
conditions are likely by late Tuesday and continuing through
Wednesday in southerly channeling. A few showers are also possible
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO/EST
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BRO/CJL/EST
MARINE...BRO/CJL
