Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 051951
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
251 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly return this weekend before a strong
cold front tracks across the region Sunday evening. Canadian
high pressure will build in early next week before another
clipper-like system nears the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Snow has exited the region as of mid afternoon. Deeper forcing
and moisture has ceased, but low-level moisture remains. As the
low levels remain saturated in light onshore flow this evening,
a period of freezing drizzle is likely east of US-15 into the
I-95 corridor. With temperatures falling back into the 20s,
expect some slick spots on area roadways. In addition, any snow
that melted will refreeze given cold temperatures and light to
calm winds that won't dry anything out. For this reason, a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the evening for areas
along and east of US-15 to the Chesapeake Bay. Low-level flow
turns from NE to NW after midnight which is less favorable for
drizzle. But, if the wind is too light to scour out low-level
moisture, then additional drizzle or freezing fog could develop
which would necessitate an extension to the advisory.
Otherwise, some patchy freezing drizzle or fog/freezing fog is
possible, especially in favored easterly upslope areas, but is
expected to be much more localized outside the advisory area.
Low temperatures will fall into the 20s as mentioned previously,
but should be prevented from falling further due to abundant
low cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A progressive longwave pattern continues through the weekend
ahead. A series of embedded shortwaves race across the central
to eastern U.S., but with very limited access to moisture. An
overall tranquil weather pattern sets up for much of the
weekend. This comes with moderating temperatures, but still
remaining chilly. Relative to early December climatology, the
forecast of widespread low/mid 40s (30s in the mountains) is
around 5 to 10 degrees below average.
Each day will bring a mix of clouds and sun, with slightly more
cloud cover on Sunday ahead of the next system. An increase in
mid and high clouds with perhaps a couple sprinkles or flurries
is possible as a lead wave crosses aloft late Saturday. Some
more precipitation chances arrive by Sunday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the Allegheny Front. Given low Froude numbers,
any spillover of this activity to downstream locations appears
less likely. However, some guidance has a trailing shortwave
which could increase forcing and moisture aloft allowing some
spillover into the Shenandoah Valley late Sunday night.
Forecast temperatures are close to freezing at times so mostly
snow is expected. Snow amounts of 1 to 3 are possible along and
west of the Allegheny Front.
A cold front sweeps across the region Sunday evening which
ushers in another round of modified Canadian air. A blustery
post-frontal northwesterly wind yields increasing gusts into
Sunday night. Gusts up to 20 to 30 mph are possible over the
higher terrain. Low temperatures fall into the 20s, with
mid/upper teens in the mountains (single digit wind chills).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A series of upper-level disturbances will move across or near
our region Monday through Friday.
The first disturbance in this period of time will move by to our
south on Monday. This may bring some snow to the Virginia Piedmont.
High temperatures will be quite chilly with highs only reaching
the 30s in many locations. Lows Monday night are forecast to
fall into the mid to upper teens with low 20s along the bay.
Another disturbance will move by to our north on Tuesday and bring a
chance for light rain or light snow to much of western and central
Maryland as well as eastern West Virginia. High temperatures will
stay on the chilly side with highs in the upper 30s to near 40.
A third disturbance will dig a little deeper toward the south and
sweep across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. There seems
to be a better chance for a mix of rain or snow across a large part
of the area. Temperatures won't be as chilly with highs in the lower
to middle 40s.
The last disturbance in this stretch of days should approach the
region Friday night. A chance for rain and snow showers could also
accompany this disturbance. Temperatures will be near average or a
few degrees below average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low end MVFR CIGs of FL010-FL018 were lingering across the TAF
sites as of mid afternoon. A couple of flurries were resulting
in spotty VSBY reductions to 4-6SM. Flow remains 040-080 at 5
kts or less. This onshore component will continue into the
evening, and with lingering low-level moisture and falling temps
a period of -FZDZ is expected for the metro TAF sites. Low-level
winds should turn to 290-330 after about 06Z. This may bring an
end to the drizzle, but fog could form since winds will be very
light to calm at the surface. Conditions should lift to VFR as
winds shift to SW Saturday morning. Mid/high clouds and perhaps
a sprinkle or flurry may accompany an upper wave late Saturday.
Saturday through Sunday night should be VFR for the TAF sites.
Light NW winds Saturday night shift to S Sunday, then NW again
Sunday night as another wave crosses. The Sunday/Sunday night
trough has a bit more energy and moisture, but the best lift and
moisture combo should stay west of the TAF sites over the higher
terrain until at least Sunday night.
VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday night. There could be a brief
period of MVFR conditions at KCHO with any passing rain or snow
showers Monday and Monday evening. Winds north 10 to 15 knots
Monday. Winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds are expected through the weekend. A series of
disturbances will pass through late Saturday, and then again
late Sunday into Sunday night. Although no precipitation is
expected with these waves, they will cause wind shifts. Light
flow of 5-10 kts or less out of the NE will shift to NW after
midnight tonight, then SW Saturday before shifting back to NW
Saturday night. A wind shift to S is expected Sunday before
returning to NW Sunday night. It is not until Sunday night when
winds increase appreciably with gusts of 20-30 kts possible,
though a few gusts around 15 kts can't be ruled out briefly
Saturday night.
Small Craft Advisories likely Monday, then again Tuesday night.
In between, no marine hazards expected. Winds northwest 10 to
20 knots gusts 25 knots Monday. Winds south 10 to 15 knots gusts
up to 20 knots Tuesday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Saturday for MDZ011-013-014-016>018-503>506-508.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Saturday for VAZ050-051-053>057-502-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO/DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...BRO/DHOF
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF
MARINE...KLW/DHOF
