Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 061939
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
239 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine gradually returns to the region this afternoon as high
pressure builds nearby. A cold front will cross the area Sunday
with an upper level low pressure system passing to the south
late Sunday night into Monday. Both of these systems could bring
some light snow showers to the mountains and to extreme
southern portions of the forecast region. Brief high pressure
builds again Tuesday before another area of low pressure and
series of fronts cross the area late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Improving weather conditions this afternoon along with some melting
as high pressure briefly builds back into the region. Cloud cover
will continue to slowly erode away, especially west of the Blue
Ridge. Ample low level moisture still remains due to light
onshore flow mainly across the VA Piedmont and southern MD where
the cloud cover remains the thickest. This was evident per the
12z IAD and RNK soundings earlier this morning which have RH
values between 70-90 percent 1-4KFT off the surface.
The added low level moisture was responsible for pockets of freezing
drizzle and freezing fog earlier this morning. The bulk of this
activity has since ceased across the region although some leftover
pockets of fog remain south and east of DC roughly from a line
extending from Charlottesville up to Culpeper back south toward
Bumpass/Richmond, VA. Visibilities continue to bounce between
3-6 SM in this area with improvements over the next 1-2 hrs.
Even in these locations skies should begin to break going into
the late afternoon period.
Low level moisture will continue to scour out this
afternoon/evening with a low amplitude shortwave passing through
and high pressure anchoring nearby. Winds will remain light and
variable, so not too much in the way of drying although
gradually clearing skies and added solar insolation should help.
A low amplitude shortwave will pass through the area later this
afternoon and evening. This may touch off light snizzle over
the Alleghenies with perhaps a flurry/sprinkle to east. No
widespread mountain impacts are expected at this time as
moisture appears meager at best. Most will stay dry as the
column continues to dry out with just a few passing clouds
heading into tonight.
Highs today will remain below normal. Temperatures look to
climb 5 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to
yesterday with most locations in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
This is 3-7 degrees below the seasonal normas for this time of
year. Mountain locations will remain in the upper 20s and low
30s. Skies will try and clear out overnight with high pressure
nearby. Expect widespread lows in the mid to upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly dry and chilly conditions continue into Sunday. Cloud
cover will gradually return as weak high pressure departs the
region and a Arctic cold front approaches from the Great Lakes
region. This front will usher in a much colder airmass for the
start of the new workweek. Highs Sunday will push back into the
upper 30s and mid 40s outside the mountains. Lows Sunday night
will fall into the teens and 20s in the wake of the arctic
frontal boundary.
The main energy source with this front looks to stay north of the
area with a trailing low pressure system and upper level trough
working to south across the central/southern Appalachians down into
the Gulf Coast states. This in turn will keep any precipitation
chances confined to the Alleghenies Sunday and locations along and
south of I-64 Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Moisture will
increase ahead of the Arctic front Sunday late morning into Sunday
afternoon. This will lead to the return of abundant cloud cover
across the region with light snow shower activity along the western
slopes of the Alleghenies. Froude numbers remain less 0.50 which
means no spillover is expected. Looking at a coating to perhaps 2
inches of fluffy accumulation in the western favored upslope
zones given meager moisture with the front. This could create
some minor travel delays late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
when the bulk of the snow fall (especially on
elevated/untreated surfaces).
A flurry or sprinkle may be possible further east as the front
crosses although moisture will be limited. The bigger story will be
the cold post-frontal west to northwest winds Sunday night into
Monday morning. Gusts of 15 to 30 mph can be expected with locally
higher gusts along the terrain. The cold wind will send wind chills
into the single digits over the mountains early Monday morning with
teens and 20s, elsewhere across the region.
Wedging high pressure sets up over New England Monday with shortwave
energy passing to the south across the Mid-Tennessee River
Valley and toward the Virginia Tidewater region. This system may
touch off a brief period of light snow mainly along and south
of I-64. Confidence remains low in regards to the
coverage/magnitude of the system and it's overall track. The
GEM/ECMWF/EPS bring probabilities of 1" or less as far north
US-33 corridor while the GFS and GEFS remain suppressed a little
further south. With that said, a brief period of light snow
remains possible late Sunday night into Monday afternoon across
portions of the southern Shenandoah Valley eastward into the VA
Piedmont/Tidewater region. Continue to monitor
weather.gov/lwx/winter for updated timing and totals for this
system as we get more model data in. Wedging high pressure
centers itself overhead Monday night dropping lows into the
teens with 20s in the immediate Baltimore/DC urban centers.
Single digit numbers are possible over the mountains with wind
chills near 0.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure on Tuesday will linger into Tuesday night, keeping the
area dry. Temperatures during the day will be cold with highs only
in the lower to middle 30s. Temperatures Tuesday night won't be as
chilly as Monday night due to the southerly wind that is expected on
the backside. Lows in the middle 20s for the most part.
The high moves east Wednesday and Wednesday night to allow for a
warm front to wiggle northward into the region, followed by a low
pressure system and its associated cold front. This trifecta will
bring a chance of rain and snow showers to the northern two-thirds
of the region with an increasing likelihood for snow showers to lead
to light to modest upslope accumulations in the mountains of the
Appalachians. Temperatures won't be as cold with highs in the middle
40s.
Through the day on Thursday, brief high pressure will move into the
region to bring dry and chilly conditions. Another low pressure
system will push across the region Thursday night, followed by its
associated cold front. This system seems to want to take a more
southerly track than the one expected on Wednesday. There is a
better opportunity with this system and front to bring measurable
snowfall to parts of the area and some light rain in the southern
areas Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday will be a couple of
degrees below average with highs in the middle to upper 40s, colder
in the mountains.
By late Friday into Friday night, a secondary cold surge will push
across the region as a disturbance sags into the mid-Atlantic. This
surge could enhance the possibility of moderate snow accumulation in
the mountains and perhaps some spill over into the eastern valleys.
Temperatures will also take a plunge across the region with highs
only in the 30s and perhaps 20s in the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few residual pockets of IFR down around CJR/CHO this
afternoon as low level moisture continues to scrub out. Overall
looking at improving conditions for aviators with predominant
VFR conditions and perhaps some leftover pockets of MVFR this
afternoon mainly over the central VA Piedmont into southern MD
where the thickest cloud cover continues to persists. All
terminals should return to VFR later this afternoon after
20-23z/3-6pm as weak high pressure settles nearby. Winds will
remain light and variable at less than 10 kts. VFR conditions
are likely to continue tonight into early Sunday morning with
weak high pressure nearby. Some freezing fog is possible once
again at KCHO and perhaps KMRB given the low level moisture
that looks to linger east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Highest
confidence for fog appears to be at KCHO with lesser confidence
toward KMRB given slightly drier air moving in.
VFR conditions continue into Sunday and Monday with weak wedging
high pressure remaining nearby. Sub-VFR conditions will return for a
period of time Sunday afternoon and evening mainly west of KCBE with
light snow over the mountains. Wind will be the main impact to
aviators late Sunday afternoon and evening as an Arctic cold front
crosses the region. Gusts of 15 to 25 kts can be expected out of the
west and northwest Sunday before switching to the north Monday.
Winds will ease Monday afternoon before ramping back up Tuesday as a
wave of low pressure passes to the south. Meanwhile, low pressure
will pass to the south Monday bringing sub-VFR conditions as far
north as KCHO/KRIC. Confidence is low at the time with light snow
being the primary concern pending the track and coverage of the
system. VFR conditions quickly return Monday night into Tuesday
as weak high pressure returns. Winds will turn to the south at
5 to 10 knots, gusting to 20 knots at times.
VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. Some scattered rain or
snow showers mainly near MRB could drop conditions to MVFR briefly
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Winds southerly 5 to 10 knots
gusts 15 knots. Winds southwest Wednesday 10 to 15 knots gusts up to
20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds look to continue through Sunday afternoon with
weak high pressure nearby. SCA level winds return Sunday evening
into Sunday night as a strong Arctic cold front pushes through. West
to northwest winds will change to north Monday while remaining at
SCA levels. Some gales are even possible over the open waters of the
bay Sunday night into Monday morning as the front crosses.
Winds drop below SCA levels Monday night before ramping back up
again Tuesday into Wednesday. This is in association with
another wave of energy passing through. As of this system, winds
will turn to the south leading to southerly channeling late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A few showers are also possible
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST
