Office: BOX
FXUS61 KBOX 261110
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
610 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front brings a period of steady rain early this morning
followed by mild temperatures. Low pressure passing well to the
north swings a strong cold front through our region late tonight.
Colder and windier conditions follow behind this front Thursday
through Saturday. Milder temperatures Sunday, before another frontal
boundary approaches from the west early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Widespread showers end early but scattered rain showers continue
through the day.
* Well above average temperatures in the upper 50s near 60.
The surface warm front is progressing north early this morning and
should be north of SNE by 12Z/7am. As such, while we'll see the
widespread showers diminish this morning, lingering low and mid
level moisture will keep us socked in with clouds and synoptic
forcing means continued scattered showers through the day for some.
Rain will be focused over the south coast where divergence aloft
from the left exit region of an upper jet and low level convergence
associated with a marginal LLJ will keep showers ongoing through
much of the day. This is all brought to an end tonight as a strong
cold front pushes through the region overnight taking the moisture
with it. We can expect to wake up to mostly clear skies by
Thanksgiving morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Colder and blustery on Thanksgiving.
The holiday kicks off with plenty of sun, but don't let it fool you:
it will be much colder than Wednesday; 850 mb temps drop from
+9C on Wed to -6C on Thu so we'll start off the day 15 to 20
degrees colder than 24 hours prior. Highs will struggle to get
out of the mid 40s. This cold advection also means a well mixed
boundary layer leading to a blustery day with winds gusting
25-35 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Windy and cold Friday into Saturday.
* Becoming unsettled Sunday night into Monday with a quick hitting
system.
A generally benign, quiet, and cold holiday weekend follows as a
much colder airmass settles overhead thanks to a sprawling mid level
trough settling over the east coast. 850 mb temps bottom out around -
10C on Saturday before warm advection provides a moderating force
for the second half of the weekend ahead of our next storm system.
We'll see highs only in the 30s and low 40s Fri/Sat, rising back
into the upper 40s/50s Sun into next week.
Precipitation-wise the only thing to speak of before Sunday night is
the possibility for some light snow accumulations in wester/central
MA/CT on Friday thanks to lake effect showers streaming across NY.
Beyond that, guidance is in fairly good agreement that another
trough of low pressure passes north of the region Sunday night into
Monday. This looks to be a quick hit of precipitation with a
mild/rainy low track for SNE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z update...
Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing
Widespread RA comes to an end by 12Z. Additional showers
possible for much of the day especially over southeast MA and
RI. Other terminals stay dry, especially after 18Z. IFR
more than likely persists through the day, with some
improvements to VFR/MVFR ceilings possible by 15-17Z but
confidence is low in improvement.
Tonight...High Confidence
Cold front crosses the region tonight and clears skies from
west to east between 03Z and 09Z. Winds shift to the west from
10 to 15 knots with some 25 knot gusts possible near the coast.
Thanksgiving...High Confidence.
VFR. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Biggest area of uncertainty is when/if cigs rise above IFR
today; most likely remaining low MVFR if we do see some marginal
improvement after 16z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up
to 35 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thanksgiving... High confidence.
* Small Craft Advisory for all southern waters.
* Gale Watch for Thursday through early Saturday across all waters.
A low pressure moves over the coastal waters early this morning with
a period of steady rain. Increasing dewpoints may result in
localized dense fog development over the cooler ocean waters.
Showers and fog dissipate tonight into Thursday as a cold front
crosses the waters with a much cooler/drier air mass.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
ANZ230-236.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning
for ANZ231-250-251-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ232>235-
237-255-256.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for
ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
