ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 280833
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1233 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Coastal areas will experience mostly cloudy skies and
bouts of drizzle through this morning, primarily for Del Norte
and northern Humboldt. Otherwise, dry and seasonably cool weather
is forecast for the next 7 days. A highly energetic long period
west swell will bring an increased risk for hazardous beach
conditions Monday through Tuesday next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front continues shifting east-southeast
and exiting the forecast area. This brought light rainfall and
sprinkles, especially for Del Norte and northern Humboldt
counties. A deep saturated layer will continue to promote drizzle
along the North Coast through this morning. Areas of valley low
clouds and fog have developed overnight with a strong radiational
cooling. This low clouds area expected top slowly lift throughout
the day, with high clouds spread across the area by the
afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft occurring downstream from the
ridge will favor dry weather and seasonably temperatures over NRN
California. High temperatures are forecast to be generally in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
While ridging continues to build over the Gulf of Alaska, an
approaching closed low near 40N/130W will drift southward well
offshore the California Coast through the weekend. Another
shortwave trough will swoop down across the Pacific NW into the
Great Basin over the weekend. Otherwise, dry and seasonably high
temperatures is expected. Breezy northerly winds is expected to
developed along the coastal headlands and exposed ridges on
Sunday. Offshore winds are expected to develop over the higher
terrain across the interior Sunday evening and increase into
Monday morning, with the strongest winds anticipated over the
eastern portion of Lake County where gusts up to 35 mph are
possible. Overnight frost and freezing morning temperatures will
once again be prime concern for those with sensitive plants. /ZVS
...EXTENDED DISCUSSION...(Tuesday through Friday)...
Above normal 500mb heights will most likely (80% chance) keep
much of Northwest California in a long stretch of dry weather all
next week. However, a third shortwave trough may (18% chance)
generate fleeting showers for Del Norte and mountains of Trinity
on Tuesday. This second insider slider trough will carve out a
larger scale trough that will promote blustery N and NE winds
around mid week. With lower dew points, calm winds in the valleys,
clear skies and long nights, the threat for frost or freezing
temperatures will once again crop up. A killing freeze has already
occurred multiple times in Trinity, northern interior Mendocino
and northern Lake Counties. We have suspended issuing frost and
freeze products for these areas until spring. Cold weather
products for wind chill may be necessary if an unseasonably cold
air mass settles over the area around mid next week. There are
subtle signs of omega block break down or a westward shift in the
longwave the following weekend of Dec 6-7 and consequential precip
will be possible. /DUG
&&
.AVIATION...A weak passing cold front generated periods
of light, shallow rain along the coast through the evening hours.
Further rain is unlikely through the night, but lingering moisture
has created IFR fog in some locations along the coast, especially
round Humboldt Bay. IFR visibilities will gradually decrease into
the morning, with most models showing clearing to MVFR (90% chance)
quickly by sunrise. There is model disagreement during the day. Most
(70%) showing ceilings scattering to VFR but a minority show some
ceilings persisting through the day. Similar disagreement is evident
Friday evening as well with a solid 30% of models showing a shallow
IFr marine layers but the rest staying more clear along the coast.
Otherwise, widespread valley fog will most likely continue to effect
the interior during the overnight and morning hours into the
weekend. /JHW
&&
.MARINE...Weak northerly winds have quickly built throughout the
waters behind a passing cold front. The sea state is currently
controlled by a mid period westerly swell around 10 feet, leading to
moderately steep seas. This swell will quickly decay through the day
Friday with mostly calm conditions headed into early Saturday.
Another mid period westerly swell will begin to build Saturday night
into Sunday, again bringing mostly mild seas up to around 8 feet.
Northerly winds will increase in the outer waters through the day
Sunday, especially south of Cape Mendocino, with some gusts near 30
kts. Winds and steep short period seas, however, will most likely
remain far from shore with much calmer conditions in the inner
waters.
Similar northerly winds will continue in the outer waters early next
week. A long period westerly swell up to 12 feet will begin to
impact the waters Monday into Tuesday. Around the same time,
northerly winds will most likely push closer to shore with potential
(40% chance) for solid gale force conditions around midweek. /JHW
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A series of mid period westerly swells will
continue to impact the waters through the weekend. The next swell
will build up to 8 feet at 14 seconds beginning Saturday afternoon
into Sunday. With mostly calm short period seas, the forerunners of
this swell especially will pose a moderate sneaker wave risk
Saturday evening with unexpected and inconsistent surf on area
beaches. A second sneaker wave risk is possible as longer period
swell builds Monday into Tuesday, but the overall risk of this swell
is more uncertain due to the potential for short period seas to push
closer to shore around the same time. In any case, the swell will
increase surf and make local beaches more hazardous. /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for PZZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for PZZ455-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka
For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 280814
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1214 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 10 AM Friday. Fog
expected again late Friday into Saturday morning.
2. A trough slides to the east on late Saturday through
Tuesday. It will be dry but wind gusts will pick up.
3. The next best chance of rain is late Tuesday into Thursday
with a second trough.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Thanksgiving was a day to give thanks as the stratus finally
broke in parts of the Valley. However, fog has begun or started
to show up on imagery in the southern Valley as of midnight. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 10 AM due to high
confidence of visibilities less than 1/4 mile. However, with the
ridge of high pressure weakening today as a shortwave rides
through the Pacific Northwest, the fog should be easier to clear
allowing temperatures to climb. There is a 60 to 95 percent
chance in the NBM of highs of at least 60 degrees in the Valley
today.
Model ensembles have a better agreement of this weekend as a
cutoff low slides under the ridge through Saturday before making
a right turn and hanging over the Pacific. At the same time,
another trough begins sliding from the Pacific Northwest late
Saturday to the Great Basin by Monday. However, the ensembles
diverge as to how far east in the Basin the trough will be. No
precipitation is expected from either troughs.
Tuesday through Thursday brings a third trough which the
ensembles agree takes an inside slider approach over the Sierra
Nevada. However, there is a 25 percent chance or less of any
precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday for the Valley with this
system. Snow probabilities are also low at 25 to 40 percent
chance of any accumulation above 7,000 feet.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities will persist in most
Valley locations through 18Z Friday. After 18Z, conditions will
improve especially after 20Z. However, MVFR to IFR conditions
return between 6Z and 9Z Saturday for the overnight hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED: 11/27/2025 14:36
EXPIRES: 11/28/2025 23:59
On Friday November 28 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings,
Madera, and Merced Counties. Burning Discouraged in Tulare
County, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ301>303-
305>307-309>312-314-315.
&&
$$
JPK
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 281702
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
902 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...28/849 AM.
Dry weather will continue at least through next Tuesday. A
cooling trend will begin today and continue through the weekend
as onshore flow returns. A mild Santa Ana is possible Monday
creating breezy northeast winds and warmer temperatures. Then
turning cooler Tuesday followed by a chance of rain Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...28/900 AM.
***UPDATE***
Minimal if any weather impacts today with clear skies, light
winds, and a return of more typical temperatures for this time of
year. Onshore flow has returned and there were some patches of
dense fog near the coast earlier this morning in the south bay
area with a 500' marine layer depth. Expecting that to deepen
tonight to around 1000 feet but expecting clouds to stay out of
the valleys at least one more night. Also expecting some fog to
hit the Central Coast tonight and Saturday morning with some vsby
restrictions as well.
***From Previous Discussion***
A little ridge will pop up over the area on Saturday. Hgts really
do not change that much. The offshore flow in the morning is even
weaker and its likely that there will be better marine layer
stratus coverage across the immediate coastal areas. Max temps
will fall a few more degrees as the airmass cools.
A weak long wave pos tilt trof will move through the Great Basin
on Sunday. It is dry and there is no chc of rain. It will likely
help the marine layer cloud coverage in the morning. Later in the
afternoon as NW winds aloft set up over the area, gusty sub
advisory NW winds will develop in the mtns and Antelope Vly.
Cooler air moving in with the trof will lower max temps 2 to 4
degrees and cst/vly max temps will end up in the 60s with a
sprinkling of lower 70 degree readings. These max temps are 2 to 4
degrees blo normal.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...28/1205 AM.
The usual end result from the passage of an inside slider is a
Santa Ana wind event and Monday will be no exception. All of the
usual Santa Ana parameters are on the low side and do not expect
this one to generate advisory level winds. In fact, the winds will
not be strong enough to chase away the low clouds from the
Central Coast and the LA coast. By afternoon, however, it will be
sunny everywhere. Max temps will warm across the csts/vlys but the
interior will see noticeable cooling as colder air move in from
the NE.
Ensemble based forecasts do not show much marine layer cloudiness
Tuesday morning along with weak offshore flow. A little skeptical
of this forecast and would not be surprised if there will be more
morning low clouds. The weaker offshore flow will bring 2 or 3
degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys, but the shutting off of the
cool air advection across the interior will result in 2 to 3
degrees of warming. Max temps will be close to seasonal norms in
the 60s and lower 70s.
Not much mdl agreement for the Wed/Thu forecast as the mdls
struggle to handle a retrograding trof (GFS) or cut off low (EC).
Mdl consensus (such that it is) gives the best chc of rain to the
LA/VTA county area. Cooler and cloudier on Wed, but Thursday's
temps really depend on what upper level pattern develops.
&&
.AVIATION...28/1128Z.
At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer WAS 500 FT DEEP. The top of
inversion was at 1400 ft with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in all TAFs, except for KSMO (A 25 percent chc of
LIFR cig/vis thru 17Z) and KLAX/KLGB (cig/vis will vary and VFR
transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes).
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z then good
confidence. There is a 20 percent chc low clouds will stay just
south of the airport. There is a 30 percent chc of VFR conds
arriving at 15Z. There is a 20 percent chc of dense fog with RVRs
less than 800ft. Good confidence in any east wind component
remaining below 7kt.
KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.
&&
.MARINE...28/747 AM.
A coastal jet is currently impacting the northern outer waters
with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Although Seas are below
SCA levels currently, it is expected to peak late this afternoon
into the evening hours with borderline SCA seas possible 30NM
from central coast shoreline (PZZ670). These conditions could
spread into northwestern portions of PZZ673 at times especially
this afternoon and evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft
should last through early Saturday morning. Then, conditions will
struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through
Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening,
but still looks unimpressive and borderline. For all Inner Waters,
conds are expected to remain below SCA levels thru the weekend.
Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the
Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances
elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...KL/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
FXUS66 KLOX 281741
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
941 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...28/849 AM.
Dry weather will continue at least through next Tuesday. A
cooling trend will begin today and continue through the weekend
as onshore flow returns. A mild Santa Ana is possible Monday
creating breezy northeast winds and warmer temperatures. Then
turning cooler Tuesday followed by a chance of rain Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...28/900 AM.
***UPDATE***
Minimal if any weather impacts today with clear skies, light
winds, and a return of more typical temperatures for this time of
year. Onshore flow has returned and there were some patches of
dense fog near the coast earlier this morning in the south bay
area with a 500' marine layer depth. Expecting that to deepen
tonight to around 1000 feet but expecting clouds to stay out of
the valleys at least one more night. Also expecting some fog to
hit the Central Coast tonight and Saturday morning with some vsby
restrictions as well.
***From Previous Discussion***
A little ridge will pop up over the area on Saturday. Hgts really
do not change that much. The offshore flow in the morning is even
weaker and its likely that there will be better marine layer
stratus coverage across the immediate coastal areas. Max temps
will fall a few more degrees as the airmass cools.
A weak long wave pos tilt trof will move through the Great Basin
on Sunday. It is dry and there is no chc of rain. It will likely
help the marine layer cloud coverage in the morning. Later in the
afternoon as NW winds aloft set up over the area, gusty sub
advisory NW winds will develop in the mtns and Antelope Vly.
Cooler air moving in with the trof will lower max temps 2 to 4
degrees and cst/vly max temps will end up in the 60s with a
sprinkling of lower 70 degree readings. These max temps are 2 to 4
degrees blo normal.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...28/1205 AM.
The usual end result from the passage of an inside slider is a
Santa Ana wind event and Monday will be no exception. All of the
usual Santa Ana parameters are on the low side and do not expect
this one to generate advisory level winds. In fact, the winds will
not be strong enough to chase away the low clouds from the
Central Coast and the LA coast. By afternoon, however, it will be
sunny everywhere. Max temps will warm across the csts/vlys but the
interior will see noticeable cooling as colder air move in from
the NE.
Ensemble based forecasts do not show much marine layer cloudiness
Tuesday morning along with weak offshore flow. A little skeptical
of this forecast and would not be surprised if there will be more
morning low clouds. The weaker offshore flow will bring 2 or 3
degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys, but the shutting off of the
cool air advection across the interior will result in 2 to 3
degrees of warming. Max temps will be close to seasonal norms in
the 60s and lower 70s.
Not much mdl agreement for the Wed/Thu forecast as the mdls
struggle to handle a retrograding trof (GFS) or cut off low (EC).
Mdl consensus (such that it is) gives the best chc of rain to the
LA/VTA county area. Cooler and cloudier on Wed, but Thursday's
temps really depend on what upper level pattern develops.
&&
.AVIATION...28/1741Z.
At 1654Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 1900 ft with a temperature of 19 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight cats may be off
by one or two when CIGs are present.
There is a 30% chance of V/LIFR conditions at KPRB from 13Z to 17Z
Sat. 15% chance of LIFR CIGs at KSMX from 10Z to 16Z Sat. Lowest
confidence in KSBA where arrival of CIGs could be off +/- 4 hours
with a 30% CIGs do not arrive or remain intermittent in nature.
KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through 03Z Sat. Arrival
of IFR CIGs 005-009 with 2SM to 4SM VSBYs may be off +/- 2.5 hours
from current forecast. Moderate confidence in VFR conditions to
return after 18Z Sat. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
LIFR conditions from 10Z to 16Z Sat.
&&
.MARINE...28/747 AM.
A coastal jet is currently impacting the northern outer waters
with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Although Seas are below
SCA levels currently, it is expected to peak late this afternoon
into the evening hours with borderline SCA seas possible 30NM
from central coast shoreline (PZZ670). These conditions could
spread into northwestern portions of PZZ673 at times especially
this afternoon and evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft
should last through early Saturday morning. Then, conditions will
struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through
Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening,
but still looks unimpressive and borderline. For all Inner Waters,
conds are expected to remain below SCA levels thru the weekend.
Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the
Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances
elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...KL/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 272129
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
129 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and periods of morning Valley and adjacent
foothills fog continue late week into the weekend
- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather favored for
Thanksgiving Day
- Decreasing chances for precipitation but periodically breezy
north to east winds expected late weekend into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Today - Friday...
Current GOES-West imagery shows a broad stratus deck enveloping
the Delta, Valley, and adjacent lower foothills this afternoon.
Any lingering patchy fog and reduced visibilities will continue to
improve through the remainder of the day, with additional dense
fog development anticipated this evening into Friday morning.
Probabilities of visibilities less than a half-mile currently sit
around 50 to 70 percent throughout the Delta, Valley, and adjacent
foothills locations. Aside from periodic fog development, cool
and dry weather are expected to persist through the end of the
week as well.
...This Weekend - Next Week...
While a slight chance for isolated mountain showers remains
possible late Saturday into Sunday, predominantly dry weather is
expected to continue this weekend into early next week. Breezy
north to east winds will be possible Sunday into Monday as well,
although strongest wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected along the
Sierra at this time. With a more persistent offshore wind pattern
setting up late weekend into next week, fog development is
expected to be lesser relative to this past week. Otherwise,
seasonable temperatures look to persist. Ensemble guidance then
indicates some potential for a trough retrograding toward the west
coast around the middle of the week. While uncertainty remains
high at this time, potential for breezier north to east winds and
another slight chance for mountain showers will be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR to IFR conditions linger across the Central Valley
until around 23z Thursday, then MVFR to VFR conditions expected
until near 06z Friday before IFR to LIFR conditions return to the
Delta, Sacramento Valley, and northern San Joaquin Valleys into
18z Friday. MVFR and IFR conditions then until 23z Friday. Light
and variable winds generally less than 12 kts across interior
NorCal for the next 24 hours.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM PST Friday
for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-
Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 281657
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
857 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Through Sunday, stronger onshore flow and a weak coastal eddy will
bring gradual deepening of the marine layer with cooling spreading
inland. Night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will increase
in coverage and spreading a little farther inland each night
through the weekend. Weak northerly flow on Monday will bring
warming for the coast and valleys and cooling inland. A low
pressure system moving southward along the West Coast will bring
cooling for Wednesday and Thursday. If the track is far enough to
the west, there would also be a chance of showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Morning Update...
Very low marine layer clouds that brought brief dense fog
conditions to extreme northwestern Orange County this morning have
pushed out to sea, and the Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect has
been allowed to expire. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected
today with no other changes to the forecast. See the previous
discussion for more details about the upcoming forecast.
From previous discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A weak coastal eddy has developed with local higher-resolution
model guidance showing the eddy continuing into Sunday morning
with slow deepening of the marine layer along with increasing
coverage of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog.
The lower level flow is still weakly offshore, though trending
weakly onshore. Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog over
the coastal waters remaining off the coast of San Diego and
southern Orange Counties and drifting farther off the coast with
the low clouds and fog extending locally inland into northern
Orange County and southern Los Angeles Counties. The fog is
locally dense with visibility of one-quarter mile or less at Long
Beach and Los Alamitos.
As onshore flow returns and the marine layer slowly deepens,
cooling will spread inland through the weekend. High temperatures
today for the coast and valleys will be as much as 4 to 8 degrees
cooler than Thanksgiving with the greater cooling on Saturday for
the mountains and high desert. The cooling will continue for the
coast and valleys on Sunday as the marine layer deepens. High
temperatures on Sunday will be a few degrees below average for
coastal areas with the mountains and deserts as much as 4 to 8
degrees above average. High temperatures on Sunday will range from
the lower to mid 60s near the coast to around 70 for the valleys
with the 70s for the lower deserts.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
For Monday, northerly low level flow will bring cooling of 4 to 8
degrees for the mountains and high desert and warming of a few
degrees for the coast and valleys. The coast and valleys will cool
a few degrees on Tuesday and the mountains and high deserts will
warm a few degrees as the lower-level northerly flow weakens.
For Wednesday and Thursday, a low pressure system moving southward
in the vicinity of the West Coast will bring cooling. Depending
on the track and evolution of this system, it could also bring a
chance of precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
281600Z....Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds based around 400-700ft MSL
have been hanging just offshore, unlikely to impact any TAF sites
this morning. Low clouds have a better chance to move ashore tonight
(45-60% chance) after 02z Sat with bases slightly higher than this
morning, 700-1200ft MSL. Clouds will push 5-10 miles inland.
Localized VIS reductions down to 4-6SM, with 1-3SM for elevated
coastal terrain. Any low clouds should begin clearing to the coast
around 16-17Z.
.Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Munyan
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 281822
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1022 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Pattern change brings milder temperatures today
- No major changes in the forecast weather through the next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
Ample low level moisture, lack of strong mixing, and a more moist
profile through 5k feet has led to another cool and cloudy start.
Pretty much a repeat of the last few days with solid clouds for N
and E Bay Valleys, in SF Bay and a new addition this AM is Santa
Clara Valley. A slow clearing of clouds is expected again with far
interior N and E Bay lingering the lastest. As such, below
seasonal temperatures until we get some insolation at the surface
for the N and E Bay. The inversion is pretty compressed too so
some fog in the 1-3 mile range will continue as well.
No update needed this morning.
MM
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
(Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery shows high-level clouds over the Bay Area,
associated with a weakening frontal boundary that is moving across
the state. Stratus decks are also visible across the North and East
Bay valleys and parts of eastern San Mateo County and the Santa
Clara Valley. The stratus decks will stay in place through sunrise
and for a couple of hours afterward, with some areas remaining
socked in through the day, but the upper level disruption of the
passing front may be enough to keep the widespread dense fog away
this morning. In the event that patchy dense fog does form, drivers
should slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave extra space
between them and the car in front.
Today marks a transition period between the departure of the ridge
that has brought us seasonally warm weather these last few days and
the development of a very strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska which
will promote downstream troughs into the contiguous 48 states.
The daytime should feature sunny skies for most people, with
lingering stratus possible in areas of eastern Contra Costa and
Alameda counties connected to the Central Valley, in addition to
western parts of San Francisco and San Mateo Counties. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s
across most of the Bay Area, the middle 60s to lower 70s across
inland parts of the Central Coast, and the lower to middle 50s
across the highest mountain peaks and ridgelines. These high
temperatures may need to be adjusted downward if stratus lingers
longer than expected across a place.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)
It might be the day after Thanksgiving but the weather pattern might
make some people recall Groundhog Day. There will be a couple of
troughs digging into the Intermountain West but these will remain
displaced too far east to give us any significant concerns. For our
region, the next week should feature a rather persistent forecast
light offshore flows, seasonally mild temperatures, and dry and
clear skies, which should help eat away at the pool of stratus that
has developed across the Central Valley.
There is a very slight chance (10-15% probability at most) of light
precipitation towards the latter part of next week if one of the
troughs digging into the Intermountain West deepens into a cutoff
low that retrogrades over southern California and merges with a
second cutoff low coming in off the coast, but the probabilities
are so low and the nuances numerous enough that the forecast
remains highly uncertain. CPC outlooks for December 5 to 11
features a slight lean towards precipitation totals above seasonal
averages for the Central Coast, but the key word here is slight
with the CPC putting the probabilities around 33-40%. For context,
the seasonal average rainfall total for Salinas Airport for that
period comes in at just under half an inch.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
Another challenging and impactful morning for Bay Area terminals
due to another push of low clouds and patchy fog. Lack of mixing
has led to slow clearing - if you want to call it that. OAK will
be VFR through this afternoon, but SFO and SJC will struggle.
Pushed back clearing, but could see it even delayed 19-20Z. N and
E Bay SCT late again 20-21Z. Monterey Bay VFR. Will bring clouds
and patchy fog again tonight.
Vicinity of SFO...Cams show pockets of blue NE of terminal. Will
keep IFR conditions through 19Z, but could see gradual clearing
19-20Z. Expecting VFR this afternoon. IFR cigs again tonight
impacting Sat AM rush.
SFO Bridge Approach...Low cigs impacting approach too, just like
SFO. VFR later this afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. A few clouds may develop tonight,
but not until late. Hi-res guidance keeps drier air around
Monterey Bay and went drier.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 959 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
Northerly flow will persist over the coastal waters. Winds will be
locally stronger to fresh breezes south of Point Pinos until
Saturday. Winds will decrease early Saturday before increasing
late Saturday into early next week. Hazardous marine conditions
return midweek as a cut-off low moves through the coastal waters
with winds increasing and wave heights building due to incoming
long period westerly swell.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 338 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
Moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an
increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves
of 13 to 18 feet are expected. A beach hazards statement is in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Sunday evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly
run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to
Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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