ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 302157
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
157 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High risk for sneaker waves Monday through Tuesday.
King Tides return on Tuesday and then peak Thursday and Friday.
Frost and freezing temperatures possible during the morning hours
for the Humboldt Bay area Monday through Thursday. Dry weather
expected to prevail for the upcoming week, followed by a chance
for rain late Friday and next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A massive upper-level ridge is forecast to remain
parked over the northeastern Pacific through next week. Dry weather
is highly probable for NW California (greater than a 90% chance).
Northerlies have been increasing over the coastal ranges this
afternoon in the wake of a shortwave trough moving over the Great
Basin. A few peak gusts around 25-30 mph will be possible (60%
chance) for the exposed coastal ridges and headlands by this
evening. Wind directions over land will shift to E-NE later
tonight and few gusts to 25-35 mph over exposed ridges in Lake
County will be possible (a 70-80% chance).
Northerlies are forecast to ramp up again late Tue into Wed as
another dry shortwave trough follows a similar track. Stronger
and blustery coastal northerly winds are expected in the wake of
this trough by Tue afternoon. ECMWF ensemble mean peak wind gusts
have been trending higher for coastal low lands. Gusts around
20-30 mph will be possible. E-NE winds will also develop Tue
night-Wed for the higher terrain and over Lake County. E-NE wind
gusts to 30-40 mph will be possible over the ridges. Ridge level
gusts to 50-55 mph are on the limbs of the distribution (95th
percentile and ensemble max) over the high mountain peaks.
Frost and freezing morning temperatures will also be possible for
coastal areas, primarily for the Humboldt Bay area, Monday through
Thursday. Stratocumulus low cloud cover over Humboldt Bay and Eel
delta tonight may hinder the longwave cooling in the Eel delta
and around Eureka. Offshore flow is expected later tonight, but
does not appear strong enough to completely scour out the low
cloud cover. Frost will be most probable, 70-90% chance, for the
north bay (Arcata, McKinleyville, Fieldbrook) as light easterlies
drive dewpoints down through the night. Chance for a freeze is
much lower, only 10-20%.
Chance for frost around Humboldt Bay area Tuesday morning decreases
to around 30% as another shortwave trough generates more cloud
cover Mon night. Offshore flow resumes Tue night and Wed morning
and the chance for frost increases again to around 60-80% for the
Humboldt Bay area. Chance for 32F in the north bay increase to
about 30-40% Wed morning. Meaningful chances for early morning
frost for the North Coast is expected to continue Thu morning.
The air mass is not forecast to be exceptionally cold next week.
With dew points in the 20s, calm winds in the valleys and clear
skies overnight, frost and freezing temperatures will once again
be a forecast challenge for inland areas that have not had a
freeze yet. Cold weather advisories for wind chill may also be a
factor with winds around around 5-10 mph and minimum temperatures
in the lower to mid 30s. Fog and low clouds will form each and
every night (100% chance), though the coverage will decrease as
the air mass slowly dries out each day this week.
Massive 500mb ridge appears to flatten out Friday and into next
weekend. All global ensemble prediction systems continue to
indicate increasing chances for 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain in 24
hours through the weekend. 24 hour chance for > 1 inch is no more
than 20%. It is interesting to note that the majority of WPC
ensemble clusters are drier than the grand ensemble. The ensemble
mean is by no stretch very wet either. It could be wet or it
could be dry or both over multiple days. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)...Low clouds continue to clear for terminals
across the region this afternoon. Overnight tonight and into
Monday morning, offshore flow across the area will bring gusty
winds over ridges. Also, this offshore flow will most likely
inhibit marine stratus formation for most coastal terminals. There
could still be a chance for some interior valley fog overnight,
if winds remain calm. /JLW
&&
.MARINE...Moderate northerly winds in the outer waters will continue
to increase through the day today with near gale force gusts to 30
kts by later this evening. The inner waters will remain markedly
calmer with few gusts over 15 kts near shore. Northerly winds will
shunt further offshore by Monday afternoon, but there is good
agreement that winds will rapidly return around mid week and push
more into the inner waters with high chances (50 to 60%) of gale
force conditions.
Aside from the winds, a minor mid period westerly around 8 feet is
currently impacting the waters and will quickly decay today.
Another, much longer period swell will build around Monday into
Tuesday up to around 12 feet. Neither swell will be particularly
steep, but will dominate the inner water sea state where short
period seas are calm. /JHW
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period swell (up to 22 seconds) will suddenly
build into the waters up to 12 feet midday Monday and continue
into Tuesday. With calm winds near shore, this swell will pose a
high sneaker wave risk with sudden high surf on beaches in otherwise
calm seeming conditions. Take extra care to keep distance from
the water. Building short period seas and shortening swell period
will decrease the risk by Tuesday afternoon. /JHW
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...King Tides return on Tuesday. High astronomical
tides are predicted from Tuesday through Sunday for Northwest
California. The combination of a high astronomical tides and
steep, short-period northerly waves will increase the risk of
minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay on Wednesday, including
King Salmon and low-lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. Minor flooding
potential in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay, and along much
of the coast is then expected through next Sunday. /ZVS
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning for CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening for
PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka
For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 010030
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
430 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.UPDATE...
Updates Aviation and Air Quality Issues Sections.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Stratus will continue to hang around through most of
Sunday.
2. Trough slides to the east through Tuesday. Winds increase
but will bring no precipitation to the area.
3. A second trough slides down Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation chances increase for this trough.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Stratus has continued to hang around which kept temperatures
cold again yesterday. However, ensembles show the ridge
crumbling and breaking as two troughs are in play. One of them
becomes a cutoff low later today but will spin offshore and move
away towards Hawaii. However, the other trough we have been
keeping an eye on will also begin sliding in later today through
the weekend. This trough will help increase wind gusts by a few
miles per hour but not to Advisory level or cause Mono winds for
our area. This trough moves east quickly and will not bring any
rain or snow to our area.
The next chance of rain and snow is another trough which slides
down late Tuesday through Thursday. However, models diverge
around Thursday as to whether this trough will become a cutoff
low or move east. Latest probabilities have a 5 percent chance
or less of an inch of snow in the Sierra Nevada with this storm
and a 20 to 25 percent chance of any rain accumulating in the
Valley Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities will persist in most
Valley locations through 18Z Monday. However, after 18Z,
conditions are expected to improve although there is a 30 to 40
percent chance of ceilings at or below 3,000 feet through at
least 12Z Monday.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED: 11/30/2025 14:10
EXPIRES: 12/01/2025 23:59
On Monday December 1 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning
Unless Registered in Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties.
Burning Discouraged in Kings County, and Kern (Greater Frazier
Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
CAZ337>339.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST Monday for CAZ335.
&&
$$
public/aviation....SM/EW
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 010447
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
847 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...30/537 PM.
Warmer temperatures are expected Monday as offshore flow returns.
A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday as an inside
slider system moves over the region. Santa Ana winds are expected
again late Wednesday through Thursday, with warmer temperatures
Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...30/845 PM.
***UPDATE***
Made a small update to try to reflect the random smattering of low
clouds over the area. Pretty much no confidence on how those
clouds will evolve over the next 12 hours. Offshore winds still on
track to develop overnight into a low-end Wind Advisory event
tomorrow. Overall, the forecast remains on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will persist over the eastern
Pacific through Wednesday and an inside slider will drop across
the Great Basin on Wednesday. Near the surface, weak to moderate
offshore flow will develop tonight/monday, turning weakly onshore
on Tuesday then more offshore flow on Wednesday.
Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be offshore
winds. For tonight/Monday, models indicate LAX-DAG pressure gradient
will peak near -5.0 mb while upper level winds around 35 knots are
forecast. Looking at HREF data, there is 70-90% chance of
northeasterly winds greater than 40 MPH across the Santa Ana wind
corridor of Ventura/LA counties. So, have issued WIND ADVISORIES
for these areas for late tonight through Monday afternoon. Gusts
between 35 and 50 MPH will be likely in the advisory areas. The
winds will diminish Monday afternoon with weak diurnal flow Monday
night and Tuesday. However on Wednesday, as the inside slider
drops down across the Great Basin, offshore winds will once again
begin to increase across the area. High resolution models are
indicating more significant upper levels winds developing
Wednesday afternoon and evening. So, Santa Ana winds will begin to
increase Wednesday afternoon/evening, especially across the
mountains.
Secondary concern in the short term will be temperatures, more
specifically low temperatures early Tuesday morning across the
Antelope Valley. Current guidance indicates lows dropping into the
mid 20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. So, have issued a FREEZE
WATCH for the Antelope Valley Tuesday morning. Otherwise, do not
anticipate any temperature issues across the area as these
offshore winds will be a more "coolish" event.
As for clouds and precipitation, no significant issues are
expected. Stratus should redevelop tonight across the coastal
plain before the offshore winds kick in around sunrise Monday. For
the balance of Monday through Tuesday, skies should remain mostly
clear for all areas. For Tuesday night and Wednesday, models
indicate a good stratus push inland south of Point Conception in
response to the inside slider beginning to impact the area. There
could actually be some patchy drizzle Wednesday morning south of
Point Conception in response to rapid deepening of the marine
inversion. Otherwise, the inside slider looks very moisture
starved and no significant precipitation is expected on Wednesday
across the area.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...30/208 PM.
For the extended period, 12Z models start out in good agreement
Thursday/Friday with the inside slider moving eastward and a ridge
"nosing" building over the area. For Saturday and Sunday, the GFS
breaks down the ridge while the ECMWF maintains its strength.
Forecast-wise, high confidence in the Thursday-Friday time frame.
On Thursday, the Santa Ana wind should peak in strength with
moderate to locally strong northeast winds across Ventura and LA
counties, but noticeably weaker winds across San Luis Obispo and
Santa Barbara counties. The offshore winds will weaken late
Thursday through Friday. With this offshore wind event, there will
be plenty of cold air advection, so afternoon high temperatures
will remain below normal across the area.
For Saturday and Sunday, forecast confidence wanes due to model
differences. High confidence in dry conditions persisting across
the area. However, temperatures are lower confidence forecast as
ECMWF solution would be several degrees warmer than the GFS.
Hopefully, models will converge on a solution for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...30/2335Z.
At 2330Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 13 C.
High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF)
Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hrs and flight categories by one
or two. There is a 30% chance for LIFR conditions at KPRB from
10Z to 16Z Mon. High uncertainty in development of LIFR CIGs at
KSBP and KSMX and how long they will last if realized. With
offshore wind push on Monday morning, expecting low clouds to
dissipate in most coastal areas between 12z-14z, and possibly
earlier.
LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain
across Ventura and LA Counties after 08Z Monday.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR CIGs 015
at times are likely 04Z-12Z Monday. No significant east wind
component expected.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30
percent chance that conditions remain VFR through the period.
&&
.MARINE...30/811 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for PZZ670/673
through late tonight. From Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas below SCA levels.
For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA conditions beyond 30
NM from shore. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels
Friday and Saturday with a chance of SCA conds on Sunday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Friday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro
bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Thru Friday, winds and seas are
expected to generally remain below SCA levels. Except for
nearshore from Ventura to western Santa Monica where SCA level
offshore winds are expected Monday through Tuesday morning. These
winds are likely to extend past Anacapa Island at times. There
could be a brief lull in winds below SCA criteria for a few hours
late Monday afternoon. The widespread nature of these winds over
the Santa Barbara Channel has warranted the issuance of a SCA
during the aforementioned timeframe.
&&
.BEACHES...30/811 PM.
A long period west-northwest swell will bring elevated surf
conditions to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday
morning. High Surf Advisories have been issued across the
Central Coast with peak surf heights of 10 feet. Very High
Tides of 7 to 7.7 (MLLW) are expected across all beaches.
The combination of the two could result in beach erosion with
isolated, minor coastal flooding especially for west-northwest
facing beaches from 4 AM to 11 AM each day.
Beach hazard statements are expected to be issued for all beaches
south of Point Conception with future updates. There is a 40%
chance that a High Surf Advisory will be needed for the Ventura
coast. In addition, coastal flooding potential is expected to
peak on Wednesday (due to the surf peaking) giving the highest
risk of coastal flooding along the Ventura coastline (30% chance).
Tides will be highest Thursday and Friday. With the large tides
and another round of swell, beach hazard statements could be
extended into the weekend. Please stay tuned to the National
Weather Service for future updates as we continue to monitor the
situation.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Monday
for zones 88-354-355-358-369-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST
Thursday for zone 340. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for zone
362. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 AM to 3 PM PST Monday
for zones 375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Watch remains in effect from late Monday night through
Tuesday morning for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Monday to 9 AM PST
Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Thompson/Kittell
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Black/KL/CC
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...CMC
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 302053
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1253 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions continue for the Valley and adjacent foothills
with periods of morning mist and light fog
- Below normal temperatures and low clouds continue in the
Valley, Delta and lower foothills into Monday, with sunny skies
and seasonable temperatures in the upper foothills and
mountains. More sun and milder temperatures spread across the
area for the rest of the week as low clouds diminish.
- There is a slight chance of light high Sierra snow showers
south of US Highway 50 for Wednesday
- Some north to east winds expected tonight through Monday and
again mid-week, becoming gusty on Wednesday
&&
...Today - Monday... There has been little change in the weather
pattern lately as a broad area of low clouds continues to cover
the Delta, Valley, and adjacent lower foothills this afternoon as
a strong inversion persists over the area. This cloud coverage is
keeping temperatures quite cool in those areas once again, 10-15
degrees below normal for this time of year, while higher
elevations have been sunny and seasonably mild. Little change is
expected for Monday. The low clouds also have greatly limited the
development of dense fog overnight into this morning, with patchy
dense fog mainly limited to the lower Motherlode foothills and
briefly for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley. This fog
diminished by late morning, with some mist and haze persisting
into the afternoon. Patchy fog may return locally to some portions
of the area this evening into Monday morning. One change for
tonight is that northerly winds should limit fog development for
the northern Sacramento Valley. The persistent low cloud cover
will likely be a limiting factor again for dense fog development
elsewhere. Probabilities of fog (visibilities less than a half
mile) currently sit around 50 to 70 percent for the central
Sacramento Valley, the Delta and the lower foothills, while the
southern Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin have
probabilities around 30 to 40 percent. Some locally breezy north
to east winds will be possible late tonight into Monday, with
gusts to around 15 to 20 mph in the northern and far western
Sacramento Valley. Strongest wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are
expected along the Sierra.
...Tuesday - Friday...With a more persistent offshore(north-
east) wind pattern setting up early next week, fog and low cloud
development is expected to be less relative to this past week.
More normal temperatures are expected with increased sunshine over
the Valley and Delta. Ensemble guidance indicates high confidence
for an inside-slider type system dropping into the Great Basin,
bringing the potential for breezier north to east winds late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusts around 25 to 35 mph are expected
over the western side of the Valley, up to 45 mph over the Sierra.
There remains a slight chance for light mountain snow showers
over the Sierra south of I-80, but moisture looks very limited
with this system and continues to trend downward.
&&
.AVIATION...
Potential for improving ceilings to VFR conditions across the
northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Lingering MVFR
conditions south of KRBL in low stratus through the afternoon,
with MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions returning in areas of FG/BR and low
stratus cigs after 06z-10z Monday. Locally breezy northerly up to
15 kts across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley until
around 12z Monday. Northeast to east wind gusts up to 20-30 kts
developing along the Sierra 03z-18z Monday. Otherwise, light and
variable surface winds less than 12kts.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 302138
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
138 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool today. The marine layer deepens into Monday for more
widespread low clouds tonight into Monday morning. Weak to
locally moderate Santa Ana winds develop Monday and weaken Tuesday
with warmer and drier weather. Precipitation chances continue to
decrease with only a few stray light showers possible Wednesday.
Chances increase for another round of weak to moderate Santa Ana
winds late Wednesday into Friday. Gradual warming Thursday
through the weekend with highs near seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Current satellite and 500 mb mesoscale analysis shows a stout
shortwave trough digging through Nevada with an associated 500 mb
jet of about 50-70 kts dipping into southern Nevada and southeastern
California. Breezy westerly onshore flow is allowed to develop this
afternoon as a result, particularly felt across higher elevations
including the high deserts and the mountains/adjacent desert
mountain slopes. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected in these areas,
with up to 35-45 mph gusts on mountain peaks. The increase onshore
flow and presence of the trough allowed for a deeper marine layer
and a foggy/cloudy morning along the coast. Temperatures this
afternoon peak a few degrees cooler than yesterday, generally in the
60s to low 70s for most. With continued onshore flow this evening
into the overnight hours, the marine layer remains fairly deep with
inland cloud cover extent expected through inland valleys again.
Cooler air spills into the Great Basin tonight into Monday behind
the aforementioned trough, serving to strengthen the offshore
pressure gradient featuring a period of weak to locally moderate
strength Santa Ana winds. Northerly/easterly offshore winds expected
to pick early Monday morning, peaking Monday afternoon, and
weakening Monday evening. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph stretch into
portions of the Inland Empire and inland valleys of San Diego and
Orange Counties, with the strongest gusts of 35-45 mph focused in
and just below mountain passes. Temperatures tick back up some
tomorrow, with dry desert air pushing into the coastal basin from
the weak Santa Anas. The offshore winds will push the marine layer
out early Monday morning, keeping it offshore into Tuesday as well.
The trough and surface high kick out fairly quickly Monday night,
with onshore flow returning for Tuesday. Temperatures moderate some
as a result, with similar highs to today.
Wednesday through Late Week...
The next trough digs southward from the Pacific Northwest through
California Tuesday into Wednesday, and while there has been a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding the track/evolution of this system,
models are now coming into better agreement. Ensemble consensus now
generally agrees this trough will not be as deep as some members
hinted at the possibility of the past few days, with the base of the
trough passing over the Mojave Desert and kicking eastward into
AZ/NM by Thursday morning. This track favors a much drier solution
with PoPs now falling to a meager 10-20% with a slight chance of
light showers Wednesday afternoon, primarily across San Diego
County. Any precipitation amounts expected to be light and largely
negligible. The other consequence of the anticipated track of this
mid-week trough will be yet another period of offshore winds. While
there is still some uncertainty in the strength, weak to moderate
Santa Ana winds similar or a touch weaker than Monday's event
expected late Wednesday and likely persisting through Friday.
The marine layer looks to return Wednesday morning following
Tuesday's onshore flow, but should be weakened and largely
restricted to the coasts or just offshore through late week with the
persistent offshore flow. As for temperatures, Wednesday looks to be
the coolest day of the week with highs about 5 degrees below normal.
Gradual warming and drying follows through the end of the week with
the weak offshore pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
302030Z....Coasts/Valleys...Patchy low clouds with bases of 1300-
2000ft MSL move ashore as early as 00-01Z Monday. Intermittent CIGs
at KSAN prior to this. Some low clouds will likely filter into the
Inland Empire some time after 04z Mon. Bases will rise beginning
around 10-11z as offshore winds kick in, to around 1800-2400ft MSL
or higher, and clouds will quickly push back towards the coastline.
Clouds should clear to the coast by 18z Mon.
.Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Strong surface winds gusting 25-35 kt, up to 45 kt through
wind-prone passes, at times in the deserts and eastern mountain
slopes, prevailing through this evening. Moderate up/downdrafts
expected in the vicinity of the mountains. Winds becoming offshore
and breezy after 12Z Monday morning for the coastal foothills,
eastern valleys, and Inland Empire, with local areas of LLWS
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Munyan
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 302333
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
333 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.
- Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.
- Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
our region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(This evening through Monday)
Subtle day-to-day change to start the week with Tule fog present
again today across the delta and the interior East Bay, as well as
persistent stratus across parts of the North Bay. Expecting this
trend to improve going into Monday as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the NE. Many locations may start the day with
clouds and fog Monday morning, but anticipating a much better
afternoon with clearing taking place earlier in the day. There is
a chance of a light burst of offshore flow in the North Bay
overnight tonight with breezy winds up to 20-30 mph along the
interior high terrain. As such, high temps Monday are likely to
be a few degrees warmer than today for these North Bay locations
that have been in the soup for the last several days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Quiet through the early week, but high likelihood of gusty
offshore winds in across the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
Mtns beginning early Wednesday morning. The stubborn high
amplitude ridge to our west promotes a deep inside slider system
digging into the Great Basin by midweek. The main impact from the
winds will be the drying that will occur due the dry, continental
nature of the airmass moving in behind the system, as well as a
bit of compressional heating due to downslope flow. Daytime
minimum RH in the 35 to 45% range can be anticipated across the
interior North Bay, East Bay Hills and interior, Eastern Santa
Clara, and the Santa Cruz Mtns. The RH range can also be expected
across the Santa Lucia and higher terrain of San Benito county,
but winds aren't likely to be as gusty here. In the aforementioned
gusty areas, NE winds with gusts to 25-35 can be expected, with
localized gusts up to 45 along the higher ridgetops. Offshore
pressure gradient peaks late morning Wednesday, so we can
reasonably anticipate winds winding down into the afternoon hours
with a more neutral pressure gradient restored by the overnight
hours into Thursday morning.
Beyond the Wednesday system, we return to a quiet, benign pattern
into the weekend. By the weekend, there are some hints at things
finally getting more interesting for us as the Pacific jet starts
to ramp up over eastern Asia and the western Pacific. What this
means for us is beyond the 7 day outlook and still holds some
uncertainty. However, this looks like this the potential start to
our next "active" pattern through the middle of the month. Stay
tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Generally a
persistence forecast on tap with fog/stratus slated to be advected
into Bay Area terminals with the help of offshore winds. Slant
range visibilities will be reduced due to haze.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northerly flow. Moderate
confidence on sub-VFR conditions returning to the terminal tonight,
likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Once the afternoon sea breeze
subsides, offshore flow will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on
VFR prevailing through the TAF period at both terminals. SNS will be
the one to watch when onshore flow gives way to drainage flow and if
this is able to advect fog into the terminal.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 332 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
High pressure will remain located off of the Oregon coast
maintaining northerly breezes through the week. Northerly flow
will increase throughout the evening and gradually diminish into
Monday. Winds will be locally stronger over the outer waters and
coastal jets. Wave heights and swell energy increase early this
week with significant wave heights building to 8-12 feet.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Tuesday evening with a
very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can
be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties.
Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the
vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...RGass
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
