ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 300846
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1246 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A mid period westerly swell will bring a moderate
risk for hazardous beach conditions through Saturday afternoon.
A much more energetic westerly swell will bring a high risk for
sneaker waves Monday through Tuesday. King Tides return on
Tuesday, and peak then on Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, dry and
seasonably cool weather is forecast through next week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and seasonably cool weather expected through the next
7-days, with a mix of sunshine and clouds.
* Potential for frost and freezing morning temperatures along the
coastal areas on Monday.
* High risk of sneaker waves is expected along the Northwest
California beaches from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.
* King Tides from December 2nd-7th, and may lead to minor coastal
flooding in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay, Crescent City
and Arena Cove.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A semi-stationay upper-level ridge over the
northeastern Pacific, while a shortwave continue to drop
southeast inland into the Great Basin. Abundant high-level clouds
continue to stream south-southwest across Northern California
overnight, while surface observations reported some coastal low
clouds and patchy valley fog. Expect another day with dry and
seasonably cool weather, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Breezy
northerly will continues to develop along the coastal headlands
and exposed ridges today as the surface pressure gradient tighten.
Offshore winds should follow this evening through Monday morning
with perhaps gusts to 25-35 mph over the ridges. The strongest
winds will most likely occur over the eastern portion of Lake
County where gusts from 25 to 35 mph are possible over wind prone
ridges by Monday.
Frost and freezing morning temperatures will also be possible for
coastal areas if the clouds do not reform and dewpoints dry out
near the ocean in response to steady east winds. Granted places
where winds stay up all night, temperatures probably will not even
fall below 45F. Current guidance indicate morning minimums early
Monday above 36F for much of the North Coast. However, NBM
probability indicates there is a 15-25 chance for min temperatures
below 36F around Humboldt Bay and adjacent areas, with up to 80%
chance for McKinleyville. Localized pockets of frost may occur (a
10% chance) along the rest of the NW California Coast.
Another dry shortwave trough will follow a similar track Mon night
and Tue. This trough will dig from NE to SW across the area by
Tue and then offshore the central and southern Cal coast by mid
week. There is an outside chance for a few fleeting light showers
or sprinkles for Del Norte and mountains of Trinity Mon night or
Tue morning, but it will not be a significant precipitation maker
for our forecast area. Once again winds look to be the main impact
with these inside slider troughs. Blustery northerly coastal
winds are expected with this second trough. ECMWF ensemble mean
peak wind gusts are much higher for coastal low lands on Tue.
Gusts around 20-30 mph will be possible. E-NE winds will also
develop Tue night-Wed for the higher terrain and perhaps Lake
County. E-NE wind gusts to 35-45 mph will be possible over the
ridges. Gusts to 50-55 mph are on the limbs of the distribution
(95th percentile) over the high mountain peaks in the King Range.
Now the air mass is not forecast to be exceptionally cold by mid
next week either. With dew points in the 20s, calm winds in the
valleys and clear skies overnight, frost and freezing temperatures
will once again be a forecast challenge for areas that have not
had a freeze yet, especially for coastal areas. Cold weather
advisories for wind chill may also be a factor with winds around
around 5-15 mph and minimum temperatures in the lower to mid 30s.
Massive 500mb ridge appears to flatten out Friday and into next
weekend. WPC ensemble clusters do show about an even split (50%)
of clusters that are "wetter" (at least for the North Coast) than
the grand ensemble mean. The ensemble mean is by no stretch very
wet with 0.10 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 4 PM Sat for
mostly Del Norte. It could be wet or it could be dry or both. Stay
tuned. /ZVS&DUG
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR to sporadic MVFR ceilings have
arrived along the coast overnight. Model generally suggest similar
conditions, with a very slight risk (30% chance) of IFR ceilings
early Sunday, but building offshore flow will most likely help clear
conditions to VFR even before sunrise. VFR conditions will most
likely continue to intensify through the day Sunday as skies clear,
with the vast majority of ensembles (90%) pointing to VFR conditions
through Sunday night into Monday. /JHW
&&
.MARINE...Currently moderate northerly winds in the outer waters
will continue to increase through the day Sunday with near gale
force gusts up to 30 kts by later int he evening. The inner waters
will remain markedly calmer with few gusts over 15 kts near shore.
Northerly winds will shunt further offshore by Monday afternoon, but
there is good agreement that winds will rapidly return around mid
week and push more into the inner waters with high chances (70%) of
gale force conditions.
Aside from the winds, a minor mid period westerly around 8 feet is
currently impacting the waters and will quickly decay Sunday.
Another, much longer period swell will build around Monday into
Tuesday up to around 12 feet. Neither swell will be particularly
steep but will dominate the inner water sea state where short period
seas are calm. /JHW
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A mid period westerly swell is currently generating
a minor sneaker wave risk. This risk will persist into the morning
but will quickly decrease through the day. A long period swell (up
to 22 seconds) will suddenly build into the waters up to 12 feet
midday Monday and continue into Tuesday. With calm winds near shore,
this swell will pose a high sneaker wave risk with sudden high surf
on beaches in otherwise calm seeming conditions. Take extra care to
keep distance from the water. Building short period seas and
shortening swell period will decrease the risk by Tuesday afternoon.
/JHW
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...King Tides return on Tuesday. High astronomical
tides are predicted from Tuesday through Sunday for Northwest
California. The combination of a high astronomical tides and
steep, short-period northerly waves will increase the risk of
minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay on Wednesday,
including King Salmon and low-lying roads near Arcata Bottoms.
Minor flooding potential in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay,
and along much of the coast is then expected through next Sunday.
/ZVS
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning for CAZ101-103-104-109.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for CAZ113.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PST Sunday for
PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday
for PZZ470.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for PZZ475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka
For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 301105
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
305 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.UPDATE...
Aviation Section Updated
&&
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Stratus will continue to hang around through most of
Sunday.
2. Trough slides to the east through Tuesday. Winds increase
but will bring no precipitation to the area.
3. A second trough slides down Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation chances increase for this trough.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Stratus has continued to hang around which kept temperatures
cold again yesterday. However, ensembles show the ridge
crumbling and breaking as two troughs are in play. One of them
becomes a cutoff low later today but will spin offshore and move
away towards Hawaii. However, the other trough we have been
keeping an eye on will also begin sliding in later today through
the weekend. This trough will help increase wind gusts by a few
miles per hour but not to Advisory level or cause Mono winds for
our area. This trough moves east quickly and will not bring any
rain or snow to our area.
The next chance of rain and snow is another trough which slides
down late Tuesday through Thursday. However, models diverge
around Thursday as to whether this trough will become a cutoff
low or move east. Latest probabilities have a 5 percent chance
or less of an inch of snow in the Sierra Nevada with this storm
and a 20 to 25 percent chance of any rain accumulating in the
Valley Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities will persist in most
Valley locations through 18Z Sunday. However, after 18Z,
conditions are expected to improve although there is a 30 to 40
percent chance of ceilings at or below 3,000 feet through at
least 12Z Monday. &&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED: 11/29/2025 14:26
EXPIRES: 11/30/2025 23:59
On Sunday November 30 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings and Merced
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Tulare County, and Kern
(Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for CAZ335.
&&
$$
public...EW
aviation....JPK
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 301623
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
823 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...30/245 AM.
A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow
returns. Warming is expected Monday as offshore flow returns with
gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and
Wednesday as a storm system approaches the region. There is a
chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday, mainly south of Point
of Conception.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...30/823 AM.
***UPDATE***
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate some stratus
and fog across the coastal plain south of Point Conception with a
thin veil of high clouds drifting overhead of the entire area.
Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging in depth
from around 1000 feet north of Point Conception to around 2000
feet south. No significant winds are currently observed.
Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues
are expected. Current stratus/fog should dissipate by late morning
with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies for all areas this afternoon
with high clouds drifting overhead. Morning TEMP STUDY data
indicates a bit cooler boundary layer with a touch stronger
onshore pressure gradients. So, most areas should be a few degrees
cooler than Saturday. As for winds, the weak onshore flow this
afternoon will generate some southwesterly winds across interior
sections, but speeds will remain well below advisory levels.
Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are anticipated. For the
afternoon forecast suite, attention turns to weak-moderate Santa
Ana winds on Monday and some light shower potential in the
Wednesday to Thursday time frame.
***From Previous Discussion***
Marine layer coverage has been spotty this morning but is starting
to fill in along the Central Coast with areas of dense fog.
Gradients continue to trend onshore but that will be reversing
tonight into Monday as another inside slider drops out of Canada
and into the Great Basin. In the meantime, another cool day across
the area with highs mainly in the 60s.
Another round of Santa Ana winds are expected Monday as high
pressure rebuilds over the Great Basin, forcing a cool and dense air
mass to settle in over southern California with gradients turning
offshore somewhere between 5 and 6mb. Interior areas like the
Antelope Valley and inland SLO County will notice a significant
drop in temperatures with highs only in the 50s. On the ocean side
of the mountains as that dense air descends and compresses it will
warm up but not as warm as the last event when highs were in the
80s. Instead highs on Monday will mostly be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s with gusty northeast winds across portions of LA/Ventura
Counties. With stronger upper support aloft and more of an
easterly component this event will likely generate advisory level
winds across the Santa Clarita Valley and the surrounding
mountains as well as much of southern Ventura County and the
northern San Fernando Valley.
The Santa Anas will be a one off as gradients quick shift back to
onshore Tuesday and yet another trough drops south east of the
Sierra mountains. Temperatures will cool a few degrees across
coast and valleys but warm a few degrees across the interior.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...30/346 AM.
This next trough, while still an inside slider, does make a closer
approach through southern California and it may be just enough to
drop a little rain over mainly LA County and possibly extreme
eastern Ventura County. Any rain amounts will be under a quarter
inch, and in many cases less than a tenth. Highs will mostly be in
the lower 60s, except 40s and 50s across the interior. Could get a
dusting of snow over the higher elevations above 6000 feet.
Thursday now looks dry as models have converged on Wednesday as
the only chance for rain during the week. Temperatures will warm
slightly but still be slightly below normal. Some breezy west to
northwest winds expected in the afternoon especially near the
coast.
Dry and a few degrees warmer Fri/Sat under clear skies and light
winds.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1157Z.
At 1111Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the sfc-
based inversion was 2800 feet with a temp of 15 degrees Celsius.
Good confidence in KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD TAFs.
Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Timing of flight category changes
could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast with flight categories
off by 1 category. There is a 40% chance of LIFR conds at KCMA
and KOXR through 17Z Sun, and again after 08Z Mon. There is a 40%
chance of conds remaining VFR at KBUR and KVNY through the period.
Conds for the remainder of sites may scatter and reform or bounce
cigs frequently this morning due to a lack of marine layer and
presence of higher level clouds. There is a 40% chance of VFR
conds after 17Z at all sites with cig/vis restrictions forecast
overnight Sun- Mon.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. Vis
may bounce flight cats through the morning. There is a 40% chance
of VFR conds through the period after cigs scatter out this
morning. Good confidence that any east wind component will remain
under 7 kt.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, then high
confidence. There is a 40% chance that VFR conds prevail through
the period.
&&
.MARINE...30/109 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through this morning, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. This afternoon
through early Monday morning, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA
level winds, with the highest chances for the waters north of
Point Conception, thus a SCA has been issued for PZZ670/673
through late tonight. From Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. For Wednesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level
winds. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Thursday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast, except low to moderate confidence
for Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Today through
Thursday, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below
SCA levels. The only exception will be on Monday with a 40-50%
chance of SCA level Santa Ana/northeast winds from Ventura south
to Santa Monica and possibly extend out past Anacapa Island. These
winds, should they extend down to the coast, would peak Monday
morning, then may drop below advisory levels during the afternoon
for a few hours, before increasing back up to advisory levels
Monday evening into late night.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Thompson
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
FXUS66 KLOX 301643
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
843 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...30/245 AM.
A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow
returns. Warming is expected Monday as offshore flow returns with
gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and
Wednesday as a storm system approaches the region. There is a
chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday, mainly south of Point
of Conception.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...30/823 AM.
***UPDATE***
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate some stratus
and fog across the coastal plain south of Point Conception with a
thin veil of high clouds drifting overhead of the entire area.
Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging in depth
from around 1000 feet north of Point Conception to around 2000
feet south. No significant winds are currently observed.
Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues
are expected. Current stratus/fog should dissipate by late morning
with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies for all areas this afternoon
with high clouds drifting overhead. Morning TEMP STUDY data
indicates a bit cooler boundary layer with a touch stronger
onshore pressure gradients. So, most areas should be a few degrees
cooler than Saturday. As for winds, the weak onshore flow this
afternoon will generate some southwesterly winds across interior
sections, but speeds will remain well below advisory levels.
Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are anticipated. For the
afternoon forecast suite, attention turns to weak-moderate Santa
Ana winds on Monday and some light shower potential in the
Wednesday to Thursday time frame.
***From Previous Discussion***
Marine layer coverage has been spotty this morning but is starting
to fill in along the Central Coast with areas of dense fog.
Gradients continue to trend onshore but that will be reversing
tonight into Monday as another inside slider drops out of Canada
and into the Great Basin. In the meantime, another cool day across
the area with highs mainly in the 60s.
Another round of Santa Ana winds are expected Monday as high
pressure rebuilds over the Great Basin, forcing a cool and dense air
mass to settle in over southern California with gradients turning
offshore somewhere between 5 and 6mb. Interior areas like the
Antelope Valley and inland SLO County will notice a significant
drop in temperatures with highs only in the 50s. On the ocean side
of the mountains as that dense air descends and compresses it will
warm up but not as warm as the last event when highs were in the
80s. Instead highs on Monday will mostly be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s with gusty northeast winds across portions of LA/Ventura
Counties. With stronger upper support aloft and more of an
easterly component this event will likely generate advisory level
winds across the Santa Clarita Valley and the surrounding
mountains as well as much of southern Ventura County and the
northern San Fernando Valley.
The Santa Anas will be a one off as gradients quick shift back to
onshore Tuesday and yet another trough drops south east of the
Sierra mountains. Temperatures will cool a few degrees across
coast and valleys but warm a few degrees across the interior.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...30/346 AM.
This next trough, while still an inside slider, does make a closer
approach through southern California and it may be just enough to
drop a little rain over mainly LA County and possibly extreme
eastern Ventura County. Any rain amounts will be under a quarter
inch, and in many cases less than a tenth. Highs will mostly be in
the lower 60s, except 40s and 50s across the interior. Could get a
dusting of snow over the higher elevations above 6000 feet.
Thursday now looks dry as models have converged on Wednesday as
the only chance for rain during the week. Temperatures will warm
slightly but still be slightly below normal. Some breezy west to
northwest winds expected in the afternoon especially near the
coast.
Dry and a few degrees warmer Fri/Sat under clear skies and light
winds.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1157Z.
At 1111Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the sfc-
based inversion was 2800 feet with a temp of 15 degrees Celsius.
Good confidence in KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD TAFs.
Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Timing of flight category changes
could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast with flight categories
off by 1 category. There is a 40% chance of LIFR conds at KCMA
and KOXR through 17Z Sun, and again after 08Z Mon. There is a 40%
chance of conds remaining VFR at KBUR and KVNY through the period.
Conds for the remainder of sites may scatter and reform or bounce
cigs frequently this morning due to a lack of marine layer and
presence of higher level clouds. There is a 40% chance of VFR
conds after 17Z at all sites with cig/vis restrictions forecast
overnight Sun- Mon.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. Vis
may bounce flight cats through the morning. There is a 40% chance
of VFR conds through the period after cigs scatter out this
morning. Good confidence that any east wind component will remain
under 7 kt.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, then high
confidence. There is a 40% chance that VFR conds prevail through
the period.
&&
.MARINE...30/842 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for PZZ670/673
beginning this afternoon through late tonight. From Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 20-30%
chance of SCA level winds. On Thursday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Thursday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast, except low to moderate confidence
for Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Today thru Thursday,
winds and seas are expected to generally remain below SCA levels.
The only exception will be on Monday with a 60% chance of SCA
level Santa Ana/northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica
and possibly extend out past Anacapa Island. These winds, should
they extend down to the coast, would peak Monday morning, then may
drop below advisory levels during the afternoon for a few hours,
before increasing back up to advisory levels Monday evening into
late night.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Thompson
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 292208
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
208 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and possible periods of morning Valley and
adjacent foothills fog and mist continue through Sunday
- Below normal temperatures and low clouds continue in the
Valley, Delta and lower foothills through Sunday, with sunny
skies and above normal temperatures in the upper foothills and
mountains
- Decreasing chances for precipitation with just a slight chance
of snow showers for the Sierra south of I-80 mid-week
- Periodically breezy north to east winds expected late Sunday
through Monday and again mid-week, strongest on Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Today - Sunday... A broad area of low clouds continues to
cover the Delta, Valley, and adjacent lower foothills this
afternoon as a strong inversion persists over the area. This
cloud coverage has kept temperatures quite cool in those areas
once again for today, 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of
year, while higher elevations have been sunny and seasonably mild.
The low clouds also greatly limited the development of fog last
night into this morning, with patchy dense fog mainly limited to
the lower Motherlode foothills and for portions of the northern
Sacramento Valley. This fog diminished by late morning, with some
mist and haze persisting into the afternoon. Dense fog may return
locally to some portions of the area this evening into Saturday
morning, likely the same areas as last night. The persistent low
cloud cover will likely be a limiting factor again for fog
development. Probabilities of fog (visibilities less than a half
mile) currently sit around 50 to 70 percent for the northern and
central Sacramento Valley and the lower foothills, while the
Delta, southern Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin have
probabilities around 30 to 50 percent. Aside from periodic fog
development and low clouds, cool Valley/Delta temperatures and dry
weather are expected to persist through Sunday.
...Next Week... Breezy north to east winds will be possible
late Sunday into Monday, around 15 to 20 mph in the Valley, with
the strongest wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph expected along the
Sierra. With a more persistent offshore(north-east) wind pattern
setting up early next week, fog and low cloud development is
expected to be less relative to this past week. More normal
temperatures are expected with increased sunshine over the
Valley. Ensemble guidance then indicates increasing confidence for
an inside slider type system dropping into the Great Basin,
bringing the potential for breezier north to east winds. Gusts
have trended a little stronger, 25 to 35 mph over the western side
of the Valley, up to 45 mph over the Sierra. There remains a
slight chance for mountain snow showers over the Sierra south of
I-80, but moisture looks very limited with this system so even
high elevations should see just a dusting of snow.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mist lingers through the afternoon hours, with improvements to
ceilings and visibility by the evening. During the evening
ceilings reaching MVFR, but go IFR/LIFR later in the evening and
overnight as the fog redevelops in the Valley. Light and variable
winds will continue through the TAF period. Near the end of the
TAF period, winds will start to shift toward the north at 5-10kts
helping to improve ceilings, visibility, and cloud coverage.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 301647
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
847 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool today. The marine layer deepens into Monday for more
widespread low clouds and fog each night and morning. Weak to
locally moderate Santa Ana winds develop Monday and weaken Tuesday
with warmer and drier weather. There is a 15-30% chance of light
precipitation Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, followed
by another round of weak to moderate Santa Ana winds Thursday into
Friday. Gradual warming Thursday through the weekend with highs
near seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Morning Update...
While a coastal eddy didn't not materialize this morning,
increased onshore flow from a trough digging through the Great
Basin has allowed the marine layer to deepen and spread low
clouds/fog into the western inland valleys this morning. Clouds
are more patchy and starting to mix out in southern San Diego
County but remain more uniform through Orange County and the
northwestern Inland Empire, but should eventually clear out by the
early afternoon. See the previous discussion below for more
details about remainder of the forecast.
From the Previous Discussion...
Increasing onshore flow with the trough passing by to the north
will bring breezy west winds to the mountains and deserts,
strongest through the passes and on the east facing mountain
slopes where gusts 35-45 mph are possible this afternoon and
evening. The passing trough will also result in cooler weather
with highs near seasonal normals.
The marine layer continues to deepen tonight, potentially
spreading into the Inland Empire. Surface high pressure builds
over the Great Basin tonight behind the departing trough, driving
weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds by Monday morning. Winds
peak during the morning and early afternoon with gusts 30-45 mph
below the passes, canyons, and foothills. These winds will bring
minor warming west of the mountains where highs will be a couple
degrees above normal, with cooling in the mountains and deserts
due to cold air advection from the north. Surface pressure
gradients and winds weaken on Tuesday, with a return of weak
onshore flow by the afternoon for slight cooling west of the
mountains and slight warming in the mountains and deserts.
For the midweek system, all of the global ensembles and
deterministic models have trended more towards an inside track.
By Thursday, only about 36% percent of the members maintain the
closed low or deep trough over So Cal on Thursday compared to 75%
from the 00Z Saturday runs. The trough still tracks close enough
to maintain a 15-30% chance of showers Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning, though with the trend towards the more inside
track, precipitation amounts have decreased. NBM currently has
around a 25% chance of 0.10" or more. Precipitation (assuming we
get any) shuts off pretty quickly on Thursday as another round of
weak to moderate Santa Ana winds develop behind the trough. Santa
Ana winds will likely continue into Friday. For next weekend,
ensemble solutions begin to diverge slightly. Around two-thrids of
the members maintain a ridge just off the West Coast and dry
northwesterly flow over So Cal which would result in warmer
weather and perhaps another round of offshore flow, while the
remaining members break the ridge down and have more zonal flow
for cooler weather and more persistent onshore flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
301630Z....Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds based 800-1500ft MSL have
cleared the southern half of San Diego County but remain socked in
across Orange County. Low clouds are beginning to filter into the
Inland Empire a bit but are unlikely to be able to reach KONT.
Clouds will clear back towards the coast 18-20z. Patchy low clouds
will redevelop with bases of 1100-1800ft MSL and move ashore again
as early as 00-01Z Monday, but will struggle to make it very far
inland before they are pushed back towards the coast early Monday
morning. Still, some low clouds will likely filter into the Inland
Empire some time after 04z Mon. Bases will rise beginning around 11z
as the offshore winds kick in, to around 1600-2000ft MSL or higher.
Clouds should clear to the coast by 18z Mon.
.Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Strong surface winds gusting 25-35 kt, up to 45 kt through
wind-prone passes, at times in the deserts and eastern mountain
slopes, generally after 18Z today, prevailing through the evening.
Moderate up/downdrafts expected in the vicinity of the mountains.
Winds becoming offshore and breezy after 12Z Monday morning for the
west mtn foothills locally into eastern valleys, with local areas of
LLWS possible for parts of the valleys.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Munyan
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 301215
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
415 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Another day of persistent fog and stratus in the North Bay
(Today/Sunday).
- Gusty offshore winds across the North Bay interior Wednesday.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.
- King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 103 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Today and tonight)
High clouds make life for the meteorologist a little difficult this
morning, as it blocks the low level clouds that are being
observed in the North Bay, East Bay, and San Francisco region. The
question for today, is, you guessed it, much like yesterday and
pertains to if or when will the clouds clear out around there.
Guidance favors perhaps a few hours earlier today, perhaps the
early afternoon hours instead of the mid to late. Given that,
opted to go with slightly higher temperature forecast than
yesterday's observed temperatures for the N Bay and surrounding
areas. Highs will still be below normal there by about 0 to 10
degrees, while the rest of the region is closer to normal for this
time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 103 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Monday through Saturday)
The forecast remains on track for the extended period, with the
first feature being stratus clearing out for the North and East Bays
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. An inside slider remains on tap for
midweek, which will bring breezy conditions to the interior North
Bay hills Wednesday morning. Conditions will dry out as well in
terms of minRH values; however, no major fire weather concerns are
expected. Beyond that, the slider looks to dig south, which should
allow for upper level ridging to build towards us. Dry weather
remains in the forecast with near seasonal to slightly warmer than
normal high temperatures expected for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
A chilly continental air mass with fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/
continues to advect on light offshore winds into the Bay Area
from the Central Valley. It's VFR over the north Central Coast
along with a few areas of fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/ in the
valleys. As mentioned in the public discussion high clouds from
the north are obscuring the fog and low stratus patterns; heavily
relying on surface observations for the morning 12z TAFs. The SAC-
SFO pressure gradient is 1.6 mb. The high resolution rapid refresh
model forecasts ~ 1 mb SAC-SFO today and this evening, keeping the
light offshore winds going.
Forecast mix out times are low confidence partly because of the
incoming cirrus clouds potential to at least initially slow incoming
diurnal warming and mixing. Best probability for VFR will be closest
to the coastline during maximum mixing hours under noon to mid
afternoon solar heating. Model forecasts show decreasing cirrus
during this time as well. Areas of fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/
redeveloping tonight and Monday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...IFR stratus ceiling to 17z then MVFR stratus to
20z today. Best probability of VFR will be during the afternoon
and evening, stratus /MVFR/ then forecast to redevelop by 08z
tonight. Northeast to east wind 5 knots becoming northwest near 10
knots 20z today then light and variable tonight and Monday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR until 18z today, VFR for the
remainder of the day and VFR likely continuing at least tonight,
lower confidence if VFR will continue early Monday morning.
Southeast cold air drainage winds will continue through morning
to mid afternoon before shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots mid to
late afternoon. Light and variable winds this evening becoming
southeasterly cold air drainage winds near 5 knots tonight and
Monday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
High pressure will remain located off the Oregon coast maintaining
northerly breezes through the week. Northerly flow will increase
through out the day today. Winds will be locally stronger over the
outer waters and coastal jets. Wave heights and swell energy
increase early this week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 828 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into next week with a
very energetic surf zone.
A beach hazards statement remains in effect for the coastline
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Sunday
evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther
up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip
currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity
of jetties, inlets, and piers.
A set of forerunner waves arrive early next week renewing the
danger for sneaker waves.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this
evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Monday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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