ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 010913
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
113 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High risk for sneaker waves Monday through Tuesday.
King Tides return on Tuesday and then peak Thursday and Friday.
Frost and freezing temperatures possible during the morning hours
for the Humboldt Bay area Monday through Thursday. Dry weather
expected to prevail for this week, followed by a chance for rain
late Friday and next weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
* High risk of sneaker waves is expected along the Northwest
California beaches from this morning through Tuesday morning.
* King Tides from December 2nd-7th, and may lead to minor coastal
flooding in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay, Crescent City
and Arena Cove.
* Dry and seasonably cool weather expected through Friday,
followed by a chance of rain over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure is forecast to remain parked over the
northeastern Pacific through Friday. Dry weather is highly
probable for NW California.
Offshore flow (E-NE winds) has been increasing across the
interior ridges overnight, especially in Lake County. Gusts from
25 to 35 mph are most likely into this morning over the exposed
ridges in the eastern portion of Lake County. Winds are expected
to diminish throughout the day as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. Satellite imagery depicts patchy low clouds near the
coastal areas and patchy fog developing along the river valleys
overnight. As of 12 AM PST, high dewpoints in the upper 30s to low
40s have been precluding frost conditions along the coast north
of Humboldt Bay. However, frost remain probable, 70-90% chance,
for the north bay (Arcata, McKinleyville, Fieldbrook) as light
easterlies drive dewpoints down into early this morning. Chance
for a freeze is much lower, only 10-20%.
Another "insider trough" will drive southward across the Great
Basin toward southern California Tuesday through Wednesday. This
will bring increasing high clouds across the area on Tuesday.
Ridging strengthen and upper-level heights rises across the
Pacific Northwest in the wake of the "insider trough". Stronger
and blustery coastal northerly winds are expected in the wake of
this trough by Tuesday afternoon. Gusts around 20-30 mph will be
possible. East-northeast winds will also develop Tuesday night
into Wednesday for the higher terrain and over Lake County, where
gusts from 30-40 mph will be possible over the ridges. Ridge
level gusts to 40-45 mph are on the limbs of the distribution
(95th percentile and ensemble max) over the high mountain peaks.
Chance for frost around Humboldt Bay area Tuesday morning decreases
to around 30% as another shortwave trough generates more cloud
cover tonight. Offshore flow resumes Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning and the chance for frost increases again to around 40-80%
for the Humboldt Bay area. Chance for 32F in the north of Humboldt
Bay increase to about 30-50% Wednesday morning. Meaningful
chances for early morning frost for the North Coast is expected to
continue Thursday morning.
The air mass is not forecast to be exceptionally cold next week.
With dew points in the 20s, calm winds in the valleys and clear
skies overnight, frost and freezing temperatures will once again
be a forecast challenge for inland areas that have not had a
freeze yet. Cold weather advisories for wind chill may also be a
factor with winds around around 5-10 mph and minimum temperatures
in the lower to mid 30s. Fog and low clouds will form each and
every night (100% chance), though the coverage will decrease as
the air mass slowly dries out each day this week.
Massive 500mb ridge appears to flatten out Friday and into next
weekend. All global ensemble prediction systems continue to
indicate increasing chances for 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain in 24
hours through the weekend. 24 hour chance for > 1 inch is no more
than 20%. It is interesting to note that the majority of WPC
ensemble clusters are drier than the grand ensemble. The ensemble
mean is by no stretch very wet either. It could be wet or it
could be dry or both over multiple days. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...VFR conditions are expected for the coastal
terminals as offshore flow limits stratus impacts. The interior
valleys, including UKI, could once again see LIFR stratus and fog
early Monday morning. Ceilings and visibilities are likely to
improve after sunrise, with generally VFR conditions likely by the
afternoon. JB
&&
.MARINE...Northerly winds have started to ease slightly and pull
away from the coast. Steep seas will largely be confined to the
outer waters for much of the day Monday. This will combine with a
long period westerly swell which will gradually build to up to 8 ft
by Tuesday. Combined seas of 8-12 ft are possible. Stronger
northerly winds return Tuesday, with gales possible south of Cape
Mendocino. Nearshore winds will be lighter, but peak gusts of 15-25
kts are still possible. North winds ease slightly and pull offshore
by Wednesday. Conditions gradually improve through the end of the
week. JB
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period swell (up to 22 seconds) will suddenly
build into the waters up to 8 feet midday Monday and continue into
Tuesday. With calm winds near shore, this swell will pose a high
sneaker wave risk with sudden high surf on beaches in otherwise calm
seeming conditions. Take extra care to keep distance from the water.
Building short period seas and shortening swell period will decrease
the risk by Tuesday afternoon. /JHW
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...King Tides return on Tuesday. High astronomical
tides are predicted from Tuesday through Sunday for Northwest
California. The combination of a high astronomical tides and
steep, short-period northerly waves will increase the risk of
minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay on Wednesday, including
King Salmon and low-lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. Minor flooding
potential in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay, and along much
of the coast is then expected through next Sunday. /ZVS
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM PST Monday through
Tuesday morning for CAZ101-103-104-109.
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for CAZ103.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ470-475.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for PZZ475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 011140
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
340 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Stratus will continue to hang around through the early part
of this week.
2. A dry disturbance will introduce increasing winds over Kern
County and maintain the dry conditions today.
3. A second disturbance will move through the area from Tuesday
through Thursday. Only very slight chances of precipitation are
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Stratus has continued to hang around which kept temperatures
cold again yesterday. However, ensembles show the ridge
crumbling and breaking as two troughs are in play. One of them
becomes a cutoff low later today but will spin offshore and move
away towards Hawaii. However, the other trough we have been
keeping an eye on will also begin sliding in later today through
the weekend. This trough will help increase wind gusts by a few
miles per hour but not to Advisory level or cause Mono winds for
our area. This trough moves east quickly and will not bring any
rain or snow to our area.
The next chance of rain and snow is another trough which slides
down late Tuesday through Thursday. However, models diverge
around Thursday as to whether this trough will become a cutoff
low or move east. Latest probabilities have a 5 percent chance
or less of an inch of snow in the Sierra Nevada with this storm
and a 20 to 25 percent chance of any rain accumulating in the
Valley Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings and visibilities with areas of IFR conditions will
persist across the Valley through 20Z Monday. After 20Z,
conditions are expected to improve with a 30 percent chance of
having ceilings rise to near the 2,500 foot level.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday December 1 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning
Unless Registered in Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties.
Burning Discouraged in Kings County, and Kern (Greater Frazier
Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
CAZ337>339.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ335.
&&
$$
Aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 011221
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
421 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...01/156 AM.
Warmer temperatures are expected today as offshore flow returns
with areas of gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop
Tuesday and Wednesday before Santa Ana winds return Thursday with
warmer temperatures into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...01/227 AM.
Santa Ana winds will be returning to portions of the area today as
the jet stream continues to push storms well north of southern
California, then down into the Great Basin. This is a common La
Nina set up and it looks like it will remain this way at least
through the first half of December. Today's Santa Ana won't be a
strong one but enough for easterly gusts into the 40s in the
mountains and 30s at lower elevations, mainly across Ventura
County and the northwestern portion of LA County. This is a much
cooler event than the Santa Ana last week and temps across coast
and valleys should top out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will
diminish in the late afternoon but with some offshore breezes
through the canyons into Tuesday morning. Outside of the areas
impacted by the Santa Anas it will be a very quiet weather day
aside from some areas of dense fog along the Central Coast and
chilly morning lows in wind protected areas and especially the
interior.
Offshore flow will weaken and turn onshore Tuesday and Wednesday
as the next inside slider moves up and over California and into
the Great Basin. Temperatures will cool down near the coast but
little change across the valleys. Rain chances that had been in
the forecast for Wed/Thu have evaporated as the system is staying
too far east. However, it will generate another weak to moderate
Santa Ana wind event Thursday in the same areas as Monday. There
is again some decent cold advection with this Santa Ana so even
with the benefit of downslope and compressional warming,
temperatures should stay in the 60s in most coast/valleys while
the interior areas are no warmer than the 50s.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...01/250 AM.
Temperatures will be on the upswing Friday and through next
weekend as a 590dam high noses into the eastern Pacific. The high
will expand into California early next week and steer storms well
east of the western US. This will break the cycle cold storms
dropping into the Great Basin and instead push temperatures to at
least 3-6 degrees above normal. Looking a little farther ahead
into the following week (Dec 7-13) most of the models maintain the
ridge over the eastern Pacific with a likely continuation of the same
warm/dry pattern through the first half of the month.
&&
.AVIATION...01/1214Z.
Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1300 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was near 3600 ft with a temperature of 14 C.
High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hrs. Low clouds are patchy and
will continue to scatter and reform frequently, as well as
bounce visibilities at the remaining sites through 16Z. Low
confidence in return of cigs tonight as offshore flow will
continue through the night.
LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain
across Ventura and LA Counties through the period.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds will continue
to scatter/reform and bounce vis through 16Z. Low confidence in
return of cigs tonight, with a 40% chance of remaining VFR after
cigs burn off this morning. No significant east wind component
expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z, then high
confidence. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3
hours. A return of 5SM BR is possible after 06Z Tue.
&&
.MARINE...01/216 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high
confidence in winds and seas below SCA levels. For Wednesday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA conditions beyond 30 NM from shore.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Friday and Saturday
with a chance of SCA conds on Sunday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Friday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro
bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from
Ventura to west of Santa Monica and potentially out past Anacapa
Island, SCA level offshore winds are expected this morning into
Tuesday morning. However, there will likely be a brief lull in
winds for a few hours late this afternoon. There is a 30% chance
of another round of offshore winds for this same area Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are
expected to generally remain below SCA levels through Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...01/230 AM.
A long period west-northwest swell will bring elevated surf
conditions to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday
morning. High Surf Advisories have been issued across the
Central Coast with peak surf heights of 10 feet. Very High
Tides of 7 to 7.7 (MLLW) are expected across all beaches.
The combination of the long period swell and high tides could
result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding,
especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 11 AM
each day.
Beach hazard statements are expected to be issued for all beaches
south of Point Conception with future updates, with a 40% chance
that a High Surf Advisory will be needed for the Ventura coast. In
addition, coastal flooding potential is expected to peak on
Wednesday (due to the surf peaking) giving the highest risk of
coastal flooding along the Ventura coastline (30% chance).
Tides will be highest Thursday and Friday. With the large tides
and another round of swell, beach hazard statements could be
extended into the weekend. Please stay tuned to the National
Weather Service for future updates as we continue to monitor the
situation.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST
Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Freeze Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
Tuesday morning for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for
zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Black/Lund
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 302053
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1253 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions continue for the Valley and adjacent foothills
with periods of morning mist and light fog
- Below normal temperatures and low clouds continue in the
Valley, Delta and lower foothills into Monday, with sunny skies
and seasonable temperatures in the upper foothills and
mountains. More sun and milder temperatures spread across the
area for the rest of the week as low clouds diminish.
- There is a slight chance of light high Sierra snow showers
south of US Highway 50 for Wednesday
- Some north to east winds expected tonight through Monday and
again mid-week, becoming gusty on Wednesday
&&
...Today - Monday... There has been little change in the weather
pattern lately as a broad area of low clouds continues to cover
the Delta, Valley, and adjacent lower foothills this afternoon as
a strong inversion persists over the area. This cloud coverage is
keeping temperatures quite cool in those areas once again, 10-15
degrees below normal for this time of year, while higher
elevations have been sunny and seasonably mild. Little change is
expected for Monday. The low clouds also have greatly limited the
development of dense fog overnight into this morning, with patchy
dense fog mainly limited to the lower Motherlode foothills and
briefly for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley. This fog
diminished by late morning, with some mist and haze persisting
into the afternoon. Patchy fog may return locally to some portions
of the area this evening into Monday morning. One change for
tonight is that northerly winds should limit fog development for
the northern Sacramento Valley. The persistent low cloud cover
will likely be a limiting factor again for dense fog development
elsewhere. Probabilities of fog (visibilities less than a half
mile) currently sit around 50 to 70 percent for the central
Sacramento Valley, the Delta and the lower foothills, while the
southern Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin have
probabilities around 30 to 40 percent. Some locally breezy north
to east winds will be possible late tonight into Monday, with
gusts to around 15 to 20 mph in the northern and far western
Sacramento Valley. Strongest wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are
expected along the Sierra.
...Tuesday - Friday...With a more persistent offshore(north-
east) wind pattern setting up early next week, fog and low cloud
development is expected to be less relative to this past week.
More normal temperatures are expected with increased sunshine over
the Valley and Delta. Ensemble guidance indicates high confidence
for an inside-slider type system dropping into the Great Basin,
bringing the potential for breezier north to east winds late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusts around 25 to 35 mph are expected
over the western side of the Valley, up to 45 mph over the Sierra.
There remains a slight chance for light mountain snow showers
over the Sierra south of I-80, but moisture looks very limited
with this system and continues to trend downward.
&&
.AVIATION...
Potential for improving ceilings to VFR conditions across the
northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Lingering MVFR
conditions south of KRBL in low stratus through the afternoon,
with MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions returning in areas of FG/BR and low
stratus cigs after 06z-10z Monday. Locally breezy northerly up to
15 kts across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley until
around 12z Monday. Northeast to east wind gusts up to 20-30 kts
developing along the Sierra 03z-18z Monday. Otherwise, light and
variable surface winds less than 12kts.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 011031
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
231 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and patchy fog extending into the inland valleys this
morning. Weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds develop later
this morning and weaken Tuesday for warmer and drier weather with
far less marine layer cloud coverage. Chances increase for
another round of weak to moderate Santa Ana winds late Wednesday
into Friday, peaking Thursday. Gradual warming Thursday into next
weekend with highs near seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough
continuing to progress southeast across the Desert Southwest,
with the trough axis now moving over So Cal. Surface pressure
gradients have turned offshore to the local deserts, currently
around -1.5 mb LAX-DAG. Widespread low clouds and fog continue
across the coastal areas and valleys, but these clouds should
gradually clear to the coast later this morning as Santa Ana
winds strengthen.
Northeast to east winds are forecast to peak late this morning
into the afternoon with gusts 30-45 mph below the passes, canyons,
and near the foothills, with isolated gusts to 50 mph near the
base of the Cajon Pass. Very weak ridging behind the departing
trough and downsloping winds will lead to warming west of the
mountains, where highs will be near to around 3 degrees above
normal, but cooling across the mountains and deserts as cooler air
moves in from the north. Santa Ana winds weaken tonight, turning
back onshore by Tuesday morning. This will likely allow marine
layer low clouds and fog to return to the coastal areas tonight.
With the return of onshore flow and a trough beginning to drop
down from the north, Tuesday will be slightly cooler with high
temperatures near to slightly below normal.
Much like the system today, ensembles have completely trended
towards an inside slider track with the next trough Wednesday to
Thursday. While some ensemble members are still showing very light
precipitation, it would be more in the form of drizzle from a
deepening marine layer Wednesday morning. Rain/mountain snow have
been removed from the forecast with chances of measurable
precipitation now less than 10%. Disappointing but not surprising.
Onshore flow will strengthen ahead of the trough Tuesday, then as
it passes in an almost identical track as this morning, another
round of gusty Santa Ana winds develops behind it on Wednesday.
Winds are forecast to peak on Thursday when there is around a 30%
chance of a weak to moderate event. Offshore flow will likely
continue into at least Saturday morning, gradually weakening each
day. Upper level ridging slowly builds in from the west along with
the offshore flow for gradual warming and drying along with mostly
clear skies for thursday into early next week with highs warming
to as much as 5-10 degrees above normal by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
011030Z....Coasts/Valleys...Areas of low clouds in western valleys
and coast based 1800-2400 feet MSL with inland vis 1-5SM will
prevail through 16Z, but in somewhat random and variable fashion.
Patchy low clouds based around 1200-1800 feet MSL will develop in
coastal areas after 06Z into Tuesday. Offshore northeast winds 20-30
kts with locally higher gusts will continue in foothills this
morning and spread into parts of inland valleys after 17Z. These
will continue through the afternoon, diminishing after 02Z.
Otherwise, mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail today and
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
Tuesday. Offshore northeast winds 20-30 kts with locally higher
gusts will continue in foothills this morning and spread into
parts of inland valleys after 17Z. These will continue through the
afternoon, diminishing after 02Z. Otherwise, mostly clear and VFR
conditions will prevail today and tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Very high tides are forecast during the mornings Wednesday through
Saturday this week, threatening minor tidal overflow and beach
erosion. Chances of these impacts are higher Wednesday and Thursday
mornings as elevated surf combines with the high tides.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 011128
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
328 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.
- Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.
- King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.
- Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
our region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Today and tonight)
The forecaster's lament this morning... Many times in the summer
this past season, we were humbled by fog and stratus. It seems to
be the case again these past few days as the Tule fog and stratus
have impacted a decent portion of our Bay Area forecast counties.
In particular, the North Bay, but that doesn't mean the rest of
the Bay Area hasn't been tricky. The forecast challenge for today
will be the timing and the status of the stratus and its effect on
high temperatures. Yesterday, many models were pointing to a few
hours of afternoon clearing for the North Bay; however, that ended
up being quite limited and late in the afternoon if any places
saw sun. This kept high temperatures lower than expected, even
with the changes. Given there isn't much sign for a huge pattern
change, opted to go with an even more pessimistic forecast than
yesterday. Which means, little no to clearing again for the North
and East Bay and that should keep temperatures similar to yesterday,
perhaps a hair warmer if one holds out hope for a peak of sun
earlier in the afternoon. Any clearing that does happen, it should
be filled back in by the evening, leading to another cloudy
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)
You guessed, it not much change in the extended forecast. An inside
slider is set to dig into the Great Basin midweek, leading to gusty
offshore winds for the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
mountains. Look for northeast winds to gust to about 25-35 mph with
locally higher gusts up to 45 mph for higher ridge tops and favored
gaps and passes. Winds gradually increase late Tuesday night, peak
Wednesday morning, and wind down during the afternoon and evening
hours. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as upper level
ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak ridging through
the weekend with more zonal flow returning after that.
The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook has us leaning
above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just below normal
chances for precipitation. Given the pattern, this leads to some
uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned in to see how the forecast
evolves.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Offshore winds prevail this morning supported by surface pressure
gradients 7.8 mb WMC-SFO and 1 mb SAC-SFO. Stratus and fog /MVFR-
IFR-LIFR/ continue to advect into the Bay Area from the Central
Valley. North to northeast winds are gusty at higher elevations in
the East Bay and the North Bay. A greater depth from the surface
to lower level temperature inversion and gusty winds at and above
the temperature inversion may be helping to limit to greatly limit
areal coverage of fog /LIFR-VLIFR/ so far overnight. The Central
Valley stratus and fog coverage is still well established and
there's plenty of cooling potential still through daybreak. Cirrus
clouds continue to mostly obscure the surface stratus and fog
patterns. Low confidence on stratus and fog redevelopment tonight
and Tuesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR-IFR 12z-16z then MVFR until 22z today.
Northeast to east wind 5 to 8 knots today, becoming light and
variable tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Slant range visibility moderate to poor at
sunrise and sunset. Otherwise similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR early this morning, with cold
air drainage winds otherwise increasing and resulting in greater
mixing through morning resulting in VFR. VFR today and tonight,
low confidence VFR continues Tuesday morning. Southeast winds 5
to 15 knots through morning, becoming light onshore late this
afternoon to light southeasterly winds tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas
will prevail today through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine
conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase
to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough.
Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and
moderate seas.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening
with a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains
in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets
can be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and
jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in
the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Never turn your back
to the ocean.
RGass/KR
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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