ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 192022
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
122 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A fast moving cold front brought some light rain and
cooler temperatures to the area. High pressure has started to build
back. Chilly temperatures possible tonight. Larger storm system
likely late next week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front has passed through the area early
this morning, bringing light rain to the coastal areas of Humboldt
and Del Norte. High pressure and clearing skies is building in as
the cold front quickly moves out of the area. High temperatures in
the interior are likely to be cooler today with 60s and 70s likely
for most valleys. A chillier night is possible for the interior
areas as skies clear tonight and offshore flow beings in drier air.
Confidence has waned for frost Monday morning as dewpoints remain
solidly in the 40s or higher. Model guidance suggests a low chance
(20% or lower) for low temperatures of 37 or lower in the colder
valleys of Trinity County, including Hayfork. Offshore flow may also
keep the skies clear tonight for the coast, bringing chillier
temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
Weak high pressure continues to build for the beginning of the week.
Interior temperatures are forecast to warm up to the high 70s to low
80s by Tuesday. Even the coastal areas could see high 60s to low 70s
Tuesday as offshore flow keeps skies clear and winds remain light.
High pressure weakens midweek as a cutoff low off the coast of
southern California moves onshore and a weak trough moves through
the Pacific Northwest. This will likely return coastal stratus and
bring a few high clouds to the area. The trough is unlikely to bring
any rain to the area, with impacts limited to coastal drizzle or a
sprinkle in Del Norte.
A more significant system arrives Friday into the weekend, bringing
multiple periods of moderate to heavy rain, gusty southerly winds,
and mountain snow. NBM chances for storm total precipitation
(Friday, Saturday, and Sunday) of over an inch are near 100% north
of Cape Mendocino and 70% in southern Mendocino and Lake. NBM
chances for over 3 inches of precipitation are over 90% in Del Norte
and around 50% north of Cape Mendocino with much lower chances (30%
or less) in Mendocino and Lake. High elevation areas of Del Norte
and the King Range could see over 6 inches total. Rapid rises in
small streams and rivers, minor flood impacts to urban areas, and
debris on roadways are all possible. NBM is also showing high
chances for wind gusts of over 40 mph over exposed ridges and
coastal headlands with small (~20%), but nonzero, chances for winds
this strong essentially everywhere across the area. Impacts will
become clearer as the storm track solidifies in the coming days. JB
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at
all forecast terminals this cycles. Extensive low cloud cover and
fog may form in the interior valleys again tonight and early Monday.
Also, shallow mist and haze may result in brief LIfR for coastal
terminals this evening due to recent rainfall. East and northeast
winds should result in drying overnight with much less potential for
shallow mist at the terminals. Strong north and northeast winds
aloft will likely result in shallow turbulence over the mountainous
terrain this evening through Monday morning.
&&
.MARINE...Northerly winds and steep waves will ramp up this evening
and overnight for all waters. Strongest winds are expected over the
outer waters and downwind of Cape Mendocino. Larger long period NW
swill arrives this evening and then build overnight to 15-18 ft.
GFS=Waves may be too low on the incoming swell. Strong north winds
and elevated seas are expected to continue into Monday, bordering on
hazardous seas warning criteria based on shorter period wind waves.
Northerly winds and steep waves will start to diminish on Tuesday,
however another large and long period NW swell will begin to build,
peaking near 13 to 15 feet by Tue night into Wed morning. Winds are
forecast to turn southerly by mid week. Southerly winds should begin
to strengthen Thursday through Friday in advance of a frontal
system. Magnitude, timing and coverage of the strong winds > 35 kt
remains uncertain. Additional reinforcing NW swell from north
Pacific storms is forecast to arrive late week. Another frontal
system may impact the waters with elevated winds and seas next
weekend.
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A large long period NW swell will build this
evening and peak overnight. Above normal breakers from 16 to 20 feet
on west and northwest facing beaches will be possible this evening
through early Monday morning. Greatest threat appears to be this
evening upon arrival of the initial swell front. It may seem like a
nice evening to head to the beach for a walk, especially after
multiple of days of coastal gloom with fog and low clouds hovering
over the shoreline. Thus, the beach hazardous statement seems
appropriate. Elevated surf will likely continue overnight into the
early morning hours of Monday. By then, surf will just be large
and hazardous with less of a sneaker wave risk.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM PDT this evening through
Monday morning for CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
Monday for PZZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
PZZ475.
Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Monday
for PZZ475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 190830
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
130 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Patchy fog development expected for the San Joaquin Valley
with a 5-10% chance for quarter mile visibility.
2. Clear and dry conditions will prevail through the early
part of this week. Another disturbance is expected to cross the
area toward the middle of next week.
3. Probability of reaching 80 degrees this weekend and early
next week will range from 60% to 80%. Cooling expected toward
the middle of next week.
4. An atmospheric river will move onto the Pacific Northwest
Coast toward the end of the week and move into Central
California around Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
With the ridge of high pressure still overhead across
California, warm temperatures and morning fog will persist this
Sunday. While Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80
degrees across the San Joaquin Valley will remain high
(60%-80%), the opposite is true for the PoE of reaching less
than one mile visibility this Sunday morning. While mist will be
observed over rural areas, the PoE of dense fog is now below
10% (very unlikely). Monday and Tuesday show similar probability
numbers which indicate that the atmosphere will remain in
steady state environment with minimal day to day change.
With the introduction of a weak disturbance starting on
Wednesday will start a period of change as temperatures begin to
cool and the PoE of 1 inch of new snow sits at 40% (2 inches of
new snow sits at 20%). Due to the storm’s origin being an area
of weakness coming up from Southern California, snow levels will
remain well above 6,000 feet and closer to 9,000 feet.
Therefore, the mid-week storm will affect the higher terrain of
the Sierra Nevada during its passage. Afterward, long range
ensemble analysis places a 30%-50% chance of of heavy
precipitation over portions of Central California by next
Saturday. While some uncertainty in the magnitude currently
exist, longer range ensemble moisture analysis is placing
Saturdays event as a weak Atmospheric River with lower snow
levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior through 12Z Sunday. Isolated fog developing in the San
Joaquin Valley between 12Z and 18Z with a 5-10 percent chance
for IFR conditions.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public/Aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 200411
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
911 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...19/845 PM.
Shortwave ridging aloft will keep a warmer weather pattern in
place across much of the region into Monday, but onshore flow
will gradually develop through Tuesday and bring some cooling
through midweek. An upper-level trough of low pressure will move
over the region between Tuesday and Wednesday and could bring a
few showers to the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...19/910 PM.
The latest satellite imagery indicates a cutoff trough of low
pressure about 550 miles south-southwest of Point Conception this
evening. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging developing ahead of the
trough is in place over the region. Offshore flow in place earlier
today has transitioned to weak onshore flow this evening, but
ridging aloft should weaken onshore pressure gradients overnight
across the Southland. Low clouds and fog are returning again to
the Central Coast this evening, but the marine layer low cloud
field looks to be struggling. The forecast keep low clouds and
patchy dense fog across the coastal areas tonight and into Monday
morning, but confidence remains low in development across the
Southland. Low clouds were expanded a little into the Santa Ynez
Valley overnight and into Monday morning due to stronger onshore
flow across the northern portion of the area. Some cooling could
develop along the Central Coast on Monday and the forecast tips
that way, bring temperatures down slightly.
***From Previous Discussion***
A Quasi-stationary closed upper level low positioned 600 miles to
our southwest will begin to move towards our region on Tuesday.
Guidance has been consistent with this feature indicating a good
chance for marine layer drizzle, especially north of Pt
Conception. Light rain is even possible near the foothills where
orographic lift is maximized on the windward side. Some of
ensemble solutions indicate an afternoon arrival of the low which
could trigger some convection across the interior mountains (<10%
chance). Another limiting factor could be the lack of moisture
indicated by model soundings.
As heights & marine layer depth increase, expect Max temperatures
to cool significantly especially across interior locations where
departures are expected to be 8 to 15 F below avg on Wednesday.
60s to 70s for all locations except in the 50s for mountainous
locations above roughly 5,000ft.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...19/208 PM.
Weak ridging is expected to build in after the low exits to the
east Thursday into Friday. Rising heights combined with reduced
pressure gradients will lead to a reduction in low clouds, esp
south of Point Conception. Cloud coverage outside of morning low
clouds should be minimal during this timeframe. Still on pace for
3 to 6 F of warming on Thursday, with an additional 2 to 4 F on
Friday bringing max temperatures near normal.
A series of disturbances will move along an anomalous jet streak
impinging upon northern California. The GEFS/EPS & ECWMF-AIFS
continues the trend of reducing the amplitude of the upper wave
pattern. With longer wavelengths, the storm track would stay north
with less impact if the majority of ensembles members are realized.
This would translate to lower chances of rainfall if this trend
continues for the Saturday night and Sunday timeframe.
There has been a fair amount of consistency of a ridge building
once the aforementioned trough passes our region's meridian.
At this time, both ensembles and deterministic solutions show
good signaling for both N-NE offshore gradients. This could
translate to moderate wind event (Mon-Wed 27th-29th). However, it
is still pretty far out and confidence is very low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...20/0056Z.
Around 00Z, the marine layer depth was around 600 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 1400 feet with a
temperature around 23 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert
terminals. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for
coastal terminals. Higher confidence exists in flight categories.
Less confidence exists in timing.
There is a high to likely chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at
coastal terminals as early as 03Z, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected. The highest chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions will be
for coastal terminals north of Point Conception. VFR conditions
should develop between 16Z and 18Z, but there is a low chance of
MVFR visibilities lingering until as late as 22Z.
KLAX...There is a 60 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions
as early as 03Z, or as late as 13Z. If VLIFR conditions were to
develop, the most likely time period looks to be between 08Z and
16Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 17Z or as late as
18Z. There is a low chance of MVFR visibilities lingering until
22Z.
KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...19/803 PM.
Across the outer waters, moderate confidence in the forecast for
winds. Gusts of 21 to 25 knots are observed over the waters
between San Nicolas Island and Point Conception and a Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been issued for PZZ673-676 through 3 AM Monday.
There is a 40% chance that the gusts will subside below Advisory
levels before that time, possibly as early as midnight.
Otherwise, a long period swell will continue to bring seas of
7-9 feet to the outer waters through tonight, rising to 10 to 11
feet Monday into at least mid- week, and highest for northern
portions. There is a 30 percent chance that a SCA will be issued
for the outer waters on Monday due to high seas. Winds are
expected to remain below SCA levels Monday morning until
Wednesday afternoon, then northwesterly winds will increase south
of Point Conception and across portions of the southern Inner
Waters, especially across the Santa Barbara Channel (40-60% chance
of SCAs being issued). Moderate confidence in SCA level winds
reaching the outer waters Thursday into Friday, but then likely
remaining sub- advisory across the inner waters.
Patchy dense fog is possible across portions of the coastal waters
tonight into tomorrow morning, with a chance of more widespread
dense fog developing late tonight.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall/Black
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld/CC
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 191932
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1232 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with near normal temperatures across the region
through much of next week
- Breezy north to east winds tonight through Monday behind a
weather system passing to the north, latest wind gust forecast
has trended slightly higher
- Confidence continues to increase in a potent atmospheric river
event late next week into next weekend (October 24-27) bringing
stormy conditions back to interior NorCal
.DISCUSSION...
Today - Monday...Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery
depicts a band of clouds pushing through the forecast area as a
trough crosses the Pacific Northwest. Dry weather and near normal
temperatures prevail this weekend, as no precipitation is
expected from the trough. Forecast highs in the Valley are in the
70s to near 80 both days. Breezy north to east winds will develop
behind the passage of this trough tonight through Monday. The wind
gust forecast has trended ever so slightly higher with peak gusts
of 20 to 30 mph, strongest along and west of Interstate 5 in the
Delta, Sacramento Valley, adjacent Coast Range foothills and in
the Sierra. Be sure to secure any loose outdoor items such as fall
decorations. Winds will decrease in the Valley Monday afternoon
but will continue in the offshore wind-prone mountain and
foothills gaps/canyons through Monday night.
Tuesday - Thursday...Weak northerly flow will linger Tuesday
morning. Seasonably warm temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the Valley, then temperatures
gradually cool to slightly below normal each day. Dry weather is
expected for much of interior northern California, however there
is a slight chance for isolated mountain showers over the Sierra
south of Highway 50 Wednesday as an upper low crosses
south/central California and moves inland, however little to no
impacts are expected.
Friday - Next Weekend...Confidence continues to increase in a
potent atmospheric river event Friday into next weekend (Oct
24-27) as an upper level trough deepens off the Gulf of Alaska and
approaches the West Coast. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is
still indicating a risk for heavy precipitation, mountain snow
and gusty winds over this timeframe for much of northern
California. Latest guidance shows snow levels initially starting
very high on Friday (greater than 8,000 feet) before gradually
lowering later in the weekend to pass level. Check back frequently
for forecast updates as we get closer and fine tune all the
details. /KH
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours across interior
NorCal. Generally light winds through Sunday evening become breezy
to gusty north to east winds after 06z Monday. Strongest gusts 20
to 25 kts expected across the northern Sacramento Valley through
Monday morning.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 200349
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
849 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak offshore flow will continue with easterly breezes in the
foothills and coastal mtn slopes for Monday and Tuesday. Near to
slightly above average temperatures expected through Tuesday
before below average conditions return for the middle of the week.
Warmer for Friday then cooler again for next weekend. Patches of
marine layer low clouds and fog this morning, with the potential
for areas of dense fog. Low cloud coverage will become more
widespread over the next several days. Areas of drizzle possible
Wednesday for lower elevations west of the mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.Evening Update...
Mostly clear skies are seen over the region with patchy low clouds
near the coast. Expect low clouds and fog to be intermittent.
Light offshore flow overnight will keep most low clouds/fog within
10 miles of the coastline with low confidence on formation. The
area of low pressure off the coast will make its way over SoCal by
Wednesday, leading to cooler weather and a deeper marine layer
with low clouds extending further into the western valleys.
Chances for any precipitation continue to look minimal by next
Sunday as most models project activity from a Pacific storm to
stay to our north.
.Previous Discussion (132 PM Sunday)...
Low clouds and fog could move onshore tonight but likely will not
spread inland beyond the coastal areas. Weak high pressure aloft
will persist over the region early this week but will slowly shift
north and east by late Tuesday as a closed upper low about 600
miles southwest of San Diego moves toward SoCal. The high pressure
will keep temperatures a little above seasonal averages through
Tuesday. Weak offshore pressure gradients will persist into
Tuesday but offshore winds will be relatively weak and mostly
restricted to the coastal slopes of the mountains and locally into
the foothills. The offshore gradients will likely limit marine
layer low cloud and fog coverage. Any low clouds and fog that do
develop will most likely occur over the coastal waters and near
the coast with areas of dense fog possible.
The closed upper low to the southwest will reach SoCal by
Wednesday, moving northeast and accelerating as another cold
trough begins to move inland to the north over WA/OR. The passage
of this low will bring an increase in cloud cover as the marine
layer deepens, and cooler, locally breezy conditions. Onshore
flow will strengthen and locally gusty winds will develop in the
favored locations of the mtns and deserts. By Wednesday, high
temperatures for inland locations are expected to be 7 to 12
degrees below seasonal averages, with some mountain locations
seeing highs 15 to 20 degrees below average. Rain chances
associated with this system continue to look marginal as most of
the available moisture will be confined to the marine layer.
Chances of measurable rainfall occurring remain less than 10
percent, with the best chances for any accumulating rain on the
coastal mountain slopes. Areas of patchy drizzle are possible west
of the mountains on Wednesday, especially with the increase in
onshore flow and rapid deepening of the marine layer.
As the low moves east on Thursday...a weak, transient ridge will move
in from the west. This ridge will bring a brief period of warming,
weak offshore flow, and a shallower marine layer for Friday.
Marine layer low clouds will be reduced and daytime high
temperatures will be near or a little above seasonal averages.
For next weekend...a deep trough of low pressure from the Gulf of
Alaska will move inland over the western US. Currently, most of
the ensemble members keeps the parent low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest through next Saturday, which would keep us dry
through then. By next Sunday, most ensemble guidance has the
trough moving inland, although there remains some differences in
timing and amplitude of the trough. There is fairly good consensus
that the track of the low will be more inland and well to the
north, setting up a pattern of high-zonal flow over CA. This
pattern and a lack of deep-layer moisture makes it less favorable
for significant precipitation to occur. There are still some
ensemble members showing that light rain is possible, but more
than likely the main impact from this system for SoCal will be a
strengthening of westerly winds over the mountains and into the
deserts. This trough will also bring a cooling trend with daytime
high temperatures once again below seasonal averages for next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
200330Z....Coasts...FEW patchy low clouds based below 500 ft MSL
over the ocean. While confidence on timing is low, low clouds and
fog based below 500 ft MSL could start to develop along the coast
between 07-09z, staying mostly within 5 miles of the coast. Low
confidence for patchy FG for areas further inland but west of I-15/I-
405 and valleys below 700 ft MSL. VIS reductions below 1SM possible
for valleys and areas below 500 MSL through 15z Mon. FG and low
clouds scatter out 15-16z Monday. Higher confidence for greater
coverage fog and low clouds late Mon.
Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions continue through
late Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy fog with visibilities under 1SM will be possible Monday
morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected
through Thursday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...APR
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 200444
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
944 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
- Warm and dry weather through Tuesday
- Slight chance for thunderstorms across Central Coast Tuesday
night
- Good chance for rain Friday - Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
(This evening through Monday)
The pattern is somewhat active in the short term, despite the
benign conditions at the surface. A weak front will push through
this evening, though the impacts will be subtle. The SFO-WMC
gradient was -5 mb yesterday, reversed to +5 today, and will
switch back to -5 by tomorrow. The current positive gradient has
caused onshore winds to return. A southerly surge overnight
brought low clouds and fog to the coast, but that push has ended
as more standard NW winds take back over. As the gradient flips
back to negative over the next 24 hours, weak offshore flow will
return.
Max temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees warmer than
normal through Monday, which translates to 70s on the coast and
80s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Tuesday will start similar to today with a southerly surge
bringing coastal stratus and possible fog before a pleasant
afternoon under weak SW flow. Things get a little more interesting
Tuesday night. A cut-off low has been lingering off the coast of
NW Mexico for a week. It was actually a remnant from last week's
deep trough that brought us ample rain to the Bay Area last
Monday. There is good agreement in the models that this system
will drift far enough north to finally be picked back up by the
next jet stream trough that moves through Tuesday night. Despite
this, cut-off lows are notoriously hard to forecast and the exact
track it takes is hard to pin down. Southern California and the
desert SW have the best chance of impacts, but there is a scenario
where it comes far enough north to trigger some nocturnal
convection and possible thunderstorms to the Central Coast
(Monterey and San Benito Counties) Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. The ECMWF lightning flash density is bullish, but it
looks like an outlier. If thunderstorms do develop, they will
likely be dry with little to no precipitation reaching the ground.
According to a RDPS point sounding at Paso Robles for 06Z
Wednesday both the moisture and instability are elevated. The PW
is only 0.81, with a nearly saturated layer between 600 and 400
mb and much drier air below. The 850-700 mb lapse rate is a stable
5.5 C/km, while the 700-500 mb lapse rate is a much steeper 8.1
C/km, indicating vertical instability for saturated parcels. Just
a slight chance worth watching as the high resolution models take
a crack at it.
Ridging will return Wednesday - Thursday bringing another round of
nice warm weather. The main weather story this week is the return
of rain next weekend. A deep low pressure system over the Gulf of
Alaska will support a long cold front across the NE Pacific.
Tropical moisture ahead of this front will be channeled towards
the west coast in a weak atmospheric river set up. The models
continue to show heavy rain probable from the PNW to northern
California, with the Bay Area getting decent rain and some strong
wind on the periphery. Ensembles are showing a decent spread in
solutions, but the 25th-75th percentile is roughly between 1/10th
and 1/2 inch across the Bay Area from Friday - Sunday, with
roughly twice that amount in the North Bay and half that in the
Central Coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Winds across the region are becoming light. An eddy has formed in
Monterey Bay and has pulled CIGS away from SNS and MRY. LIFR CIGs
return to HAF into early Monday with moments of IFR CIGs affecting
APC as well into that morning. Expect widespread clearing and VFR
into the mid to late morning with light to moderate winds expected
for the afternoon. Winds weaken again into Monday night, with CIGs
building along the coast, affect HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals.
The North Bay terminals will start seeing more northeast winds into
the night on Monday
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds reduce into the
night, becoming light and variable. Winds trend more southeast into
the early morning, but remain light. These winds increase and turn
westerly into the mid afternoon, becoming moderate and lingering
into the early night before becoming light again.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds are reducing, and becoming light. An
eddy has formed over the bay, and has pulled CIGs away from the
terminals an back into the bay. Expect light winds to last into
Monday afternoon before more moderate winds return. Winds weaken
into the night on Monday with LIFR CIGs building around the bay.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 943 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Northwest breezes and gusts are building with a few gale force
gusts possible in the northern outer zones. A new northwest swell
builds overnight, combining with the wind waves and causing very
rough seas through Monday. The winds will steadily decrease from
Monday into Tuesday, allowing the seas to gradually subside before
a new long period northwest swell arrives early Tuesday night.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 546 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement will go into effect at 8PM tonight and
run through 8PM Monday evening as a long- period swell impacts
the Pacific coast. Never turn your back to the ocean! Swim near a
lifeguard if possible! If caught in a rip current, swim parallel
to shore until you escape its influence.
Additional beach hazards lurk in the forecast beyond Monday, when
another long period swell arrives. This may lead to another Beach
Hazards Statement or a High Surf Advisory possible depending on
how the forecast evolves.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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