ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 180842
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1242 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Breezy winds will continue to ease into early Tuesday
for Lake County. Frost will be possible Wednesday morning for the
interior. Additional rain is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Winds have generally diminished for the area,
except in Lake County, where elevated easterly winds will gradually
diminish into early Tuesday. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible,
with locally higher gusts possible over higher terrain.
A brief period of dry weather is forecast Tuesday and most of
Wednesday as a much drier airmass fills in behind this system
tonight, bringing chillier temperatures to the interior areas. The
widespread rain has generally brought valley fog early Tuesday
morning, which is aiding in keeping temperatures just high enough to
prevent frost. Generally mid to high 30s are forecast for the
valleys of Trinity and northern Mendocino. A dry, but cooler day is
forecast for much of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to be chilly again Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. There is still uncertainty on if frost will
develop as ample moisture will likely still be available and could
lead to areas of patchy valley fog and keep temperatures high enough
to prevent frost. Additionally, an approaching system could bring in
high clouds, further lowering confidence. NBM does show high (>50%)
probabilities for temperatures less than 36F in Trinity, areas of
Lake, northern Mendocino; but for the above reasons, confidence is
low.
Another system is likely to arrive by late Wednesday evening,
returning gusty south winds and rain to the area. So far, most
ensembles show this as a quick moving system with a punch of
moderate to locally heavy rain and breezy south winds. NBM is
showing around a 20-40% chance for over 1 inch of rain north of Cape
Mendocino, with higher probabilities in the higher terrain of the
King Range and Del Norte. Generally, forecast amounts range from
0.50-1.25 inches across the area, with localized areas over 2
inches. South winds are not currently forecast to be strong, though
gusts of 20-30 mph are possible especially along the coastal areas
and in channeled terrain. Snow levels will drop Wednesday night to
5000-5500 ft, but lower precipitation potential in Trinity County
will only support around an inch at Highway 3 around Scott Mountain
Pass.
Another break in the wet weather returns Friday and into the
weekend. Chilly overnight temperatures are likely, which could lead
to frost as early as Friday morning if cloud cover clears out. An
additional system is possible early next week. JB
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Lingering wrap around moisture has departed
the area Tuesday morning. As skies cleared and cooled, abundant
stratus and areas of fog developed in the wake of the recent rains.
Confidence is high for persistent fog over the interior valleys,
including around UKI. Northerly winds over the immediate coast, and
developing light offshore winds makes the duration of coastal fog
less certain for the coastal terminals. Periods of calm winds
allowed for rather quick radiational fog development for the coast,
including ACV. Winds are forecast to remain slightly higher at CEC,
but stratus and VCFG are expected. Late morning clearing will firmly
return conditions to VFR. Northerly winds will restrengthen Tuesday
afternoon for the coast, but gusts will mostly be under 20 kts for
ACV and CEC. JJW
&&
.MARINE...A small surface low to the south around Point Arena
continues to increase the pressure gradient against strong ridging
to the west. The subsequent prolonged gale conditions and steep,
hazardous seas will be very slow to subside as the surface low
weakens and pulls south Tuesday. The ongoing Gale Warnings in the
outer waters have been extended for this reason. Steep seas will
continue to propagate into the inner zones, and seas may be
periodically hazardous. A northwest swell will subside through
Wednesday. Winds will quickly strengthen from the south Wednesday
ahead of a North Pacific trough. A period of Gale conditions may
develop Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A large post
frontal westerly swell will follow the trough Thursday. JJW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning
for PZZ450-455.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka
For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 181001
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
150 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cold storm system will continue to move through the region
through Wednesday with scattered showers focused over the mountains
and snow levels dropping even further by Tuesday morning.
2. A weaker system may bring some more precipitation to the
region again by Thursday into Friday.
3. The region looks to finally dry out by the weekend, though
fog formation is possible during that time due to the abundant
amount of moisture in the Valley at the moment.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level disturbance off the Southern California Coast
continues to swing southeast this morning as moisture surging
toward Central California. This surge will ensure another wet
weather day as rain and snow at around 4000 to 5000 feet blanket
Kern, Tulare and portions of Fresno County this Tuesday. With a
much cooler air-mass over Central California, temperatures are
expected to remain below normal as another round of wet weather
crosses the region later in the week.
While Probability of Precipitation (PoP) will begin to drop-off
on Tuesday, continued wrap around moisture will keep Kern,
Eastern Tulare and Eastern Fresno County in the higher PoP zone.
Yet, as we lose the higher moisture source tap, accumulation
will decrease on Tuesday. In addition, the cooler air-mass will
now allow for increase snowfall coverage as the snow line drops
to near 4000 feet. Ensemble do show the upper level disturbance
exiting the region on Wednesday as the area receives a brief
reprieve from the wet weather. Temperature-wise, Probability of
Exceedance of reaching 65 degrees has values below 10 percent
starting on Tuesday and continues until the end of the week.
Therefore, temperatures will struggle to reach seasonal normal
levels through the next storm.
The next storm will have polar-maritime origins as the cooler
air will be reinforced with lower snow levels. Ensemble
Probabilities are lower with the next storm as confidence in
precipitation amounts is low. Yet, confidence is higher on the
storm entering Central California during the day period on
Thursday, accumulation may end up be lighter. However, every bit
of water is needed across the State as we end a new water year.
After Friday, longer term ensemble analysis is showing drier
conditions over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with a
20-30 percent of IFR conditions between 11Z and 17Z on Tuesday.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday November 18, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park
Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
CAZ323-326>331. &&
$$
Public/Aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 180541
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
941 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...17/451 PM.
A cooler storm system will continue to spread rain across the
area through tonight, mainly across Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties. Lingering showers may continue into Tuesday. Wednesday
will offer a brief respite from the rain with warmer temperatures.
Another storms is slated to arrive next Thursday and linger into
Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...17/811 PM.
***UPDATE***
Another wet day as a cold front marched through the area. The
front is currently over the eastern portion of la county and sill
push out by 10 pm. The front dropped between a half inch and inch
of rain across the flatter portions of the csts/vlys while the
coastal slopes saw 1 to 2 inches. Rainfall rates during the peak
of the event was enough to warrant flash flood warnings.
Snow levels started out at 7000 ft this morning but have fallen to
5000 ft and snow has been reported throughout the mtns. Snow
levels could fall to as low as 4000 ft by Tuesday morning with
some non accumulating snow possible on the Grapevine. A winter
weather advisory is out the mtns due to 2 to 5 inches of snowfall
gusty winds and dense fog.
Most of the csts/vlys struggled to even get out of the 50s today.
The notable exception was the LA cst and San Gabriel Vly where the
later arriving rain allowed temps to reach the mid 60s. Most max
temps ended up 8 to 12 degrees blo normals today.
While the front will no longer be in the area tonight and Tuesday
to cold core of the upper will be. This will bring enough
instability to the area for a slight chc of TSTM development.
The forecast was updated for chc of precip, clouds and thunder.
***From Previous Discussion***
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
Main issues will be upper low passing across the area, bringing
another round of precipitation to the area. The low drop southward
across Point Conception tonight/Tuesday before moving east across
far Southern California Wednesday and Thursday.
RAIN...
Cold front is currently moving across Ventura county and will move
into LA county later this afternoon. In association with the
front, light to moderate rainfall can be expected, generating a
majority of the widespread measurable rainfall. Behind the front
tonight and Tuesday, an unstable and showery pattern will prevail
as the upper low drops southward. By Tuesday evening, rainfall
totals with this system are expected to range from 0.50-1.00
inches for coastal/valley areas with 1-2 inches for the foothills
and mountains. Rainfall rates through Tuesday are expected to
generally be under 0.50 inches per hour and will generate nuisance
flooding across the area. However, the latest high resolution RRFS
and HRRR indicate the potential for rain rates around 1.00 inch
per hour along the front this afternoon across Ventura and
especially LA counties. If these rates does come to fruition,
there could be some significant debris flows across the burn
scars, including the Palisades and Eaton Scars.
After a dry day on Wednesday, another system will impact the area
on Thursday. At this time, rain looks to begin across the Central
Coast Thursday morning, working its way south into LA county by
Thursday afternoon/evening. By Thursday evening, rainfall totals
will generally range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches.
SNOW...
Based on latest guidance, current snow levels are around 7000
feet, but will drop to around 5000 feet tonight and on Tuesday.
The bulk of the rainfall will fall before the snow levels drop.
However, there still should be some decent accumulations across
the northern Ventura mountains and the eastern San Gabriel
Mountains (5-10 inches above 7000 feet and 2-5 inches between 5000
and 7000 feet). So, have issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for
these areas through 1000 PM Tuesday.
As for the Grapevine area, there is a chance of a dusting of snow
Tuesday morning as the snow levels lower.
Anyone traveling through the mountains through Tuesday should be
ready for winter weather conditions.
THUNDERSTORMS...
Along with the rain and snow, thunderstorms will be a risk for
the through Tuesday. As the upper low drops southward today, a
cold and unstable air mass will bring a threat of thunderstorms
to all areas. On Tuesday, the threat of thunderstorms looks to be
confined to LA county as well as interior sections of Ventura and
Santa Barbara counties.
Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Additionally, any
storms could produce significant rainfall rates, likely exceeding
the sub-hourly USGS thresholds, and could generate significant
debris flows in and around the recent burn scars.
If you live near a burn scar, be prepared for significant rainfall
and potential debris flows. Pay attention to local emergency
officials for any actions to take if conditions do deteriorate.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...17/107 PM.
For the extended, models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement through the period. Main feature of note will be upper
low that will impact the area Friday and Saturday.
On Friday, this upper low will drop southward, southwest of San
Nicolas Island and will move eastward into northern Baja Mexico on
Saturday and Sunday. With this pattern, the threat of rain will
continue for all areas on Friday, but will diminish from north to
south through the day with a lingering slight chance of showers on
Saturday south of Point Conception. With this system from Thursday
through Saturday, rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.25
to 0.75 inches across coastal and valley areas with up to around
1.25 inches across the foothills and mountains. However, given
the nature of upper lows, there is the potential for rainfall
totals to be a bit higher than currently forecast. Snow levels
look to drop to around 5500 feet on Friday/Saturday which could
result in several inches of additional snowfall.
On Sunday, the low will move eastward. This will bring some
welcome dry conditions to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...18/0540Z.
At 0445Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a moist
layer extending to 6000 ft.
Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 30 percent chc of no MVFR
cigs developing overnight at any given site. If cigs do form there
is 30 percent chc that there will be IFR cigs.
There is a 10 percent chc of a TSTM at KSMO, KLAX and KLGB after
20Z-02Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
no MVFR cigs developing. If cigs do form there is 30 percent chc
that they will be BKN008. There is a 10 percent chc of a TSTM
20Z-02Z. There is a 25 percent chc of an 9 kt east wind component
09Z-16Z.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
no MVFR cigs developing. If cigs do form there is 30 percent chc
that they will be BKN008. There is a 30 percent chc of bkn040-050
conds 18Z-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...17/822 PM.
For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
continue through tonight. SCA seas will persist through mid-day
Tuesday. Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA levels for
Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate to high (30-50
percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on Friday.
Inside the Southern California Bight, SCA level winds will
continue through tonight, with a chance to linger into the early
morning hours. Conditions will likely remain below SCA levels for
Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate- to- high (30-50
percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on Friday.
There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters through late Tuesday morning. Any thunderstorms
that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small
hail, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic
winds, locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for
zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST
Tuesday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for
zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for
zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Thompson/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Smith
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 172044
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1244 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 4PM Today for
elevations 6000 feet and above in the Sierra/Southern Cascades.
Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 6 inches; with up to 8
inches at the highest peaks with wind gusts of 20-30 mph.
- Scattered rain showers with 10-20% chance of t-storms this
afternoon and evening.
- Drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday morning,
followed by another weather system late Wednesday into Friday.
.DISCUSSION...
...This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...
Late this morning, we saw scattered showers over the Sierra and
adjacent foothills as the upper level low tracks down the Sierra.
We can expect conditions to taper off throughout the evening with
rain showers persisting over the Sierra south of Interstate 80
and over the Coastal Range/N. Sacramento Valley. Latest forecast
show a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
highest along the western portions of our Valley. As the low
rotates through the evening showers could move over the Delta
region but storms should be dying out if it makes it to the area,
Additional rain totals of a quarter of an inch across much of the
area and up to a half inch over the Coastal Range and Sierra,
south of Hwy. 50. For snow, elevations above 6000 feet may see an
additional 2-4 inches, up to 8 inches over the mountain peaks.
Overall looking at the morning run of hi-res data, areas below
3000 feet could see a pop-up shower or two as the system continues
to swing through the area but more often than not these showers
will be closer to short burst of higher rain rates and occasional
lightning than anything significantly organized convection wise.
By Tuesday morning, we will enter a brief lull in weather into
Wednesday with mild conditions and highs in the upper 50s to low
60s in the Valley.
...Wednesday Evening - Friday...
The trough is currently forecast to bring renewed rain and
mountain snow chances late Wednesday through Friday afternoon.
Latest NBM runs have increased total rain and snow for our region
slightly, but still within the same impact range as yesterday's
package.
Recent trends show a increase in available moisture for the
event, however resulting forecasted rain and snow amounts still
look to be minor impacts if any. NBM probabilities show a 30-50%
chance of 3 inches or more over the Sierra above 6000 feet and
30-60% chance of 0.25" of rain of more for the Valley so even
amidst the uncertainty the system looks to be on the lower range
of impacts, if any. Rain and snow should taper off Thursday
evening into Friday morning as dry weather returns.
...Next Weekend - Early Next Week...
Drier weather overtakes the area by Friday night, as upper level
ridging is progged to develop and somewhat strengthen in the
eastern Pacific. Weak troughing to the north in/near the Gulf of
Alaska may help keep our heights flat, with seasonable high
temperatures and mainly dry weather in the forecast through the
weekend. Monday brings an outside chance of weak showers over the
Sierra and N. Sac Valley but chances remain low and impacts look
minimal.
.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR with isolated areas of MVFR due to lingering
showers. Isolated thunderstorms from 21Z Monday until around 00z
Tuesday, mainly across portions of the Delta and western Valley.
Southerly wind gusts 15 to 25 knots in the Valley and Delta,
through 00z Tuesday. Snow levels around 5000-6000 feet by Monday
morning. Chances for MVFR/localized IFR conditions tomorrow
morning due to mist and low stratus along the western Valley from
12Z to 17Z Tuesday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 180530
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS... A weak storm system will move through the area later
today into early Wednesday. This will bring light to moderate rain
showers and accumulating snowfall in the mountains. There will be a
brief lull in the action on Wednesday, with sunnier but continued
cooler weather. Yet another winter storm system will move closer to
the region later on Thursday through at least Friday night, bringing
another round of rainfall and higher elevation snow. Things look to
dry out sometime early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A band of frontal precipitation is moving fairly swiftly from the
northwest to the southeast through the region. There's been some
pretty good rain rates along parts of the coast and into the
foothills, with local rates of a third to a half an inch of rain
in about an hour. This is enough to result in some urban flooding
as well as poor visibility in heavier areas of rain/in the
mountains where areas of fog are present; use extra caution if you
need to drive this evening and avoid driving through any flooded
areas.
So far we've seen 0.25-0.60" in Orange County and the eastern
Inland Empire, including the western San Bernardino foothills,
0.15-0.40" along the San Diego County coastline (except for one
over-performing station near San Onofre that managed to receive
nearly an inch). Inland valleys have (so far) seen a few
hundredths to 0.20", but that should change soon as the front
continues to the east. Off-and-on showers will follow the front as
it passes out of the region overnight, continuing through most of
Tuesday. For more information, see the previous discussion.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 149 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025...
An area of low pressure has moved into Northern California, where an
associated frontal boundary continues to move through Southern
California. Light showers have been noted so far from LA to
Ventura. Showers may increase in intensity through the afternoon
and evening hours over our region as hi-res models indicate.
Hourly rain rates will peak around 0.50"/hr, but most rates will
be closer to one quarter of an inch. We are not expecting too many
impacts with this but areas that flooded from the weekend or any
other low lying/poor drainage areas may see localized ponding or
flooding. This system will be colder than the last, so snow levels
near 7,000 feet to start but lower near 5,000 feet by Tuesday
evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas in
the San Bernardino County mountains above 6,000 feet. A general
2-4 inches is expected around this elevation with locally over 5
inches for areas over 7,000 feet through Tuesday evening.
The exact track of this low pressure system is being a bit more
resolved in the models, where the low will move directly over our
area. This will provide a better chance of thunderstorms as the cold
core moves over the region, so areas mainly west of the mountains
will see continued isolated showers and thunderstorms into the day
on Tuesday. There will be intermittent breaks in the clouds west of
the mountains throughout the day with sunnier conditions in the
deserts. Tuesday will be a chillier day as well, with highs 10-20
degrees below average. By Wednesday, the track of this system
starts to diverge in the model guidance. Some show the system
going far enough south, giving us sunnier and drier conditions.
Others show a more interesting scenario, where the backside of the
low will produce more precipitation along the mountains into the
deserts. We will continue to watch this, as this could produce
additional desert rain and mountain snowfall.
The weather pattern continues to remain interesting as we move into
Thursday and Friday. Yet another area of low pressure looks to move
into the Southern California vicinity, where the probability of rain
and mountain snow increases once more. The exact track and
precipitation timing / amount details still somewhat uncertain,
though compared to yesterday, the model guidance is in better
agreement on the system moving over the area or off the coast, which
would give us a wetter weather setup. This will solidify a cooler
and cloudier weather pattern through the work week. High pressure
off the coast looks to move into the region sometime early next week
(Sunday or Monday), where drier and warmer weather will move into
the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
180430Z...A line of +RA/RA is moving through San Diego County and
the Inland Empire, moving eastward around 15kts. Bases 800-2000 ft
and VIS 1-3SM MSL in +RA, 2-3 kft bases and 4-6SM in -RA. Otherwise,
bases 3-5 kft. Higher terrain obscured in FG/RA/SN during the
frontal passage and through the overnight hours. Snow showers
possible in the mountains above 6,000 feet elevation between 06-13z.
Moderate confidence for -SHRA for low desert sites between 08-13z,
with VIS down to 4-6SM and bases down to 2500 ft MSL at times.
FEW-SCT bases 3-5 kft overnight into early Tuesday morning with
increasing SHRA activity across the coastal basin and mountains
after 15z. -SHRA/SHRA during the day to lower bases intermittently
to 2500 feet MSL and VIS 4-6SM. Slight chc (10-15%) TSRA after 18Z.
SHRA activity diminishes after 02z Wednesday and clouds thin out
across the region.
&&
.MARINE...
The cold front has moved through the coastal waters, yielding to
northwest winds gusting to 20-25 kts. Winds eventually weaken after
3 AM Tuesday. Check the Small Craft Advisory for details.
Showers continue through the day Tuesday, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Any thunderstorm could produce
lightning, gusty erratic winds, choppy seas, and/or a waterspout. No
hazardous marine conditions are expected Tuesday night through
Thursday, but the next storm system has the potential to bring
hazardous winds and seas Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet, with sets to 6 feet on west-facing
beaches is expected through Tuesday. This will generate a high risk
of rip currents.
Additionally, there is a slight chance (10-15%) of thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for San
Bernardino County Mountains.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-
Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CSP
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 180447
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
847 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
gradually decrease through Monday night before drier weather
returns Tuesday.
- Next system brings more beneficial type rain late Wednesday
through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)
Isolated to scattered rain showers persist over the region this
afternoon with thunderstorms showing up to our east. A surface low
pressure is currently positioned over the North Bay with a mid/upper
level aloft. This will result in increased instability with surface
based and most unstable CAPE forecast to be up to 500 J/kg through
the afternoon. Any heavier rain showers and/or thunderstorms will be
capable of producing 0.25"-0.50" of rainfall per hour, yet these
rates will be isolated in nature. Conditions begin to dry out by
late tonight and more so into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will generally be in the low-to-upper 40s across the
coldest spots across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s along
the San Francisco Bay Shoreline and the City of San Francisco.
This drying trend will occur as the aforementioned surface and
mid/upper level lows shift southward through the day on Tuesday. A
short-wave ridge will build across the Bay Area and Central Coast
through Tuesday with temperatures warming to near normal across the
Bay Area and North Bay while up to 10 degrees cooler than normal
across the Central Coast. Mostly sunny sky conditions are expected
beyond the morning hours on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Light to occasionally moderate rain returns late Wednesday night
across the North Bay and then increase in coverage and intensity
through Thursday early afternoon across of the remainder of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. This system is forecast to move through
rather quickly producing 0.50"-1.00" in the coastal ranges and
higher elevations across the region, 0.25"-0.33" in the North Bay
Valleys and around San Francisco, and generally less than 0.25"
elsewhere. However, as things become increasingly saturated, the
risk for shallow land/rock/mud slides will also increase.
Friday through the rest of the upcoming weekend look to be dry with
temperatures rebounding closer to seasonal averages. This is
captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center
showing conditions leaning below normal for precipitation and near
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 838 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Rain showers
will follow the path of the surface low, sliding south and east
through tomorrow morning. As such, high-end MVFR/low-end VFR with
rain showers in the vicinity can be expected through the night.
Winds will decrease and veer through the night as the effect of
the surface low wanes. Order is restored tomorrow in the form of
dry conditions and diurnal wind patterns.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. Low-end
VFR/high-end MVFR with westerly flow and rain showers in the
vicinity will prevail for the next couple of hours. As the surface
low exits to the southeast, rain shower activity will wane and
winds will decrease and back. Diurnal winds return tomorrow
afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with southwesterly flow at SNS. Low-end VFR/high-end MVFR
with westerly flow and rain showers in the vicinity will prevail
through the night. Winds will decrease and back through the night
with diurnal winds returning tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 838 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
A chance for rain showers will continue through the night. While
conditions will slowly begin to improve, rough seas and strong
northerly breezes will persist through Tuesday, especially for the
outer waters. Conditions briefly become non-hazardous Wednesday.
Fresh to strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas
return Thursday and persist into Friday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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FXUS66 KMTR 180457
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
857 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
- Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
gradually decrease through Monday night before drier weather
returns Tuesday.
- Next system brings more beneficial type rain late Wednesday
through Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Forecast remains on track tonight, but what a difference 24hrs
makes. We do still have some scattered light showers drifting south
across our area, especially over the water. Despite the drier
conditions tomorrow and Wednesday, temperatures will continue to be
below normal. Tuesday will be mostly sunny, but on Wednesday we'll
see cloud cover gradually increase as the next system makes its way
south toward our area. This next storm will not carry the same punch
that we saw last night. The weekend looks mostly dry, with
deterministic guidance backing off the potential for another round
of rain for the beginning of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)
Isolated to scattered rain showers persist over the region this
afternoon with thunderstorms showing up to our east. A surface low
pressure is currently positioned over the North Bay with a mid/upper
level aloft. This will result in increased instability with surface
based and most unstable CAPE forecast to be up to 500 J/kg through
the afternoon. Any heavier rain showers and/or thunderstorms will be
capable of producing 0.25"-0.50" of rainfall per hour, yet these
rates will be isolated in nature. Conditions begin to dry out by
late tonight and more so into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will generally be in the low-to-upper 40s across the
coldest spots across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s along
the San Francisco Bay Shoreline and the City of San Francisco.
This drying trend will occur as the aforementioned surface and
mid/upper level lows shift southward through the day on Tuesday. A
short-wave ridge will build across the Bay Area and Central Coast
through Tuesday with temperatures warming to near normal across the
Bay Area and North Bay while up to 10 degrees cooler than normal
across the Central Coast. Mostly sunny sky conditions are expected
beyond the morning hours on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Light to occasionally moderate rain returns late Wednesday night
across the North Bay and then increase in coverage and intensity
through Thursday early afternoon across of the remainder of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. This system is forecast to move through
rather quickly producing 0.50"-1.00" in the coastal ranges and
higher elevations across the region, 0.25"-0.33" in the North Bay
Valleys and around San Francisco, and generally less than 0.25"
elsewhere. However, as things become increasingly saturated, the
risk for shallow land/rock/mud slides will also increase.
Friday through the rest of the upcoming weekend look to be dry with
temperatures rebounding closer to seasonal averages. This is
captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center
showing conditions leaning below normal for precipitation and near
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 838 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Rain showers
will follow the path of the surface low, sliding south and east
through tomorrow morning. As such, high-end MVFR/low-end VFR with
rain showers in the vicinity can be expected through the night.
Winds will decrease and veer through the night as the effect of
the surface low wanes. Order is restored tomorrow in the form of
dry conditions and diurnal wind patterns.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. Low-end
VFR/high-end MVFR with westerly flow and rain showers in the
vicinity will prevail for the next couple of hours. As the surface
low exits to the southeast, rain shower activity will wane and
winds will decrease and back. Diurnal winds return tomorrow
afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with southwesterly flow at SNS. Low-end VFR/high-end MVFR
with westerly flow and rain showers in the vicinity will prevail
through the night. Winds will decrease and back through the night
with diurnal winds returning tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 838 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
A chance for rain showers will continue through the night. While
conditions will slowly begin to improve, rough seas and strong
northerly breezes will persist through Tuesday, especially for the
outer waters. Conditions briefly become non-hazardous Wednesday.
Fresh to strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas
return Thursday and persist into Friday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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