ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 020823
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1223 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High risk for sneaker waves through this afternoon.
King Tides return today and then peak Thursday and Friday.
Chances for frost and freezing temperatures increase for areas
closer to the coast again tonight. Dry weather expected to
prevail for this week, followed by a chance for rain late Friday
and over the weekend.
&&
KEY MESSAGES:
* High risk of sneaker waves is expected along the Northwest
California beaches through the afternoon.
* King Tides from December 2nd-7th, and may lead to minor coastal
flooding in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay, Crescent City and
Arena Cove.
* Dry and seasonably cool weather expected through Friday, followed
by a chance of rain over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure is forecast to remain parked over the
northeastern Pacific through Friday. Dry weather is highly probable
for NW California.
Another "insider trough" will drive southward across the Great Basin
toward southern California through Wednesday. This will bring
increasing high clouds across the area today. Ridging strengthens
and upper-level heights rises across the Pacific Northwest in the
wake of the "insider trough". Stronger and blustery coastal
northerly winds are expected in the wake of this trough by the
afternoon. Gusts around 20-30 mph are forecast. East- northeast
winds will also develop late tonight into Wednesday for the
higher terrain and over Lake County, where gusts from 30-40 mph
will be possible over the ridges. Ridge level gusts to 40-45 mph
are on the limbs of the distribution (95th percentile and ensemble
max) over the high mountain peaks.
Chance for frost around Humboldt Bay area decreases this morning to
around 30% as another shortwave trough generates more cloud
cover. Offshore flow resumes tonight into Wednesday morning and
the chance for frost increases again to around 40-80% for the
Humboldt Bay area. Chance for 32F in the north of Humboldt Bay
increase to about 30-50% Wednesday morning. Meaningful chances for
early morning frost for the North Coast is expected to continue
Thursday morning.
The air mass is not forecast to be exceptionally cold next week.
With dew points in the 20s, calm winds in the valleys and clear
skies overnight, frost and freezing temperatures will once again be
a forecast challenge for inland areas that have not had a freeze
yet. Cold weather advisories for wind chill may also be a factor
with winds around around 5-10 mph and minimum temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s. Fog and low clouds will form each and every night
(100% chance), though the coverage will decrease as the air mass
slowly dries out each day this week.
Massive 500mb ridge appears to flatten out Friday and into next
weekend. All global ensemble prediction systems continue to indicate
increasing chances for 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain in 24 hours
through the weekend. 24 hour chance for > 1 inch is no more than
20%. It is interesting to note that the majority of WPC ensemble
clusters are drier than the grand ensemble. The ensemble mean is by
no stretch very wet either. It could be wet or it could be dry or
both over multiple days. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Offshore flow continues, keeping coastal
stratus from forming and the terminals largely VFR. Interior
valleys, including UKI, are still likely to see LIFR stratus and fog
again tonight, but with slightly lower confidence than previous
nights. Any clouds are likely to lift and scatter by the late
morning, bringing VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening.
Winds at the coastal areas may be breezy, especially around CEC,
with gusts potentially exceeding 20 kts. JB
&&
.MARINE...North winds are forecast to strengthen and push closer to
the coast by the afternoon today. Gale force gusts up to 35 kts are
possible in the outer waters, with gusts up 20-25 kts possible
nearshore. Steep seas combine with a long period WNW swell that has
filled in and peaked around 8-9 ft at 22 seconds. Combined seas
could reach 10-14 ft by early Wednesday morning. Winds ease slightly
by Wednesday but gusts up to 30 kts are still possible in the outer
waters. Winds and seas ease further Thursday and Friday, with the
main exception being the expansion fan south of Cape Mendocino.
Conditions continue to improve going into the weekend as high
pressure weakens. JB
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period WNW swell filled in Monday afternoon
and peaked at around 7-9 ft at 22 seconds. The period has decreased
to 17-18 seconds as of Monday evening and periods will continue to
decrease through the day Tuesday. Despite shortening periods
Tuesday, high astronomical tides can increase the danger of sneaker
waves, especially over rocks and jetties.
Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between
waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without
warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and
beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as
logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep
water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits.
Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to
stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently.
Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean! /JJW/JB
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...King Tides return on Tuesday. High astronomical
tides are predicted from Tuesday through Sunday for Northwest
California. The combination of a high astronomical tides, a positive
tidal anomaly, and a long-period swell will increase the risk of
minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay, including King Salmon
and low-lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. /JJW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM PST this morning for
CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for PZZ450-455.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
PZZ470-475.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PST Wednesday
for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 021046
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
246 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Afternoon clearing has lead to fog development overnight into
this morning across the San Joaquin Valley.
2. A dry disturbance will introduce increasing winds across the
deserts and mountain peaks from Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tule Fog may make its return tonight into tomorrow morning due
to the clearing of the stratus this afternoon and the lingering
moisture in the atmosphere near the surface of the Valley. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the majority of the
Valley from 11 PM tonight through 11 AM tomorrow morning. Take
caution while driving and slow down, especially on the highways
and state routes as vehicles may be difficult to see in the fog.
This fog potential is expected to return by Friday if the
stratus that formed last week makes an appearance again.
A system is then expected to move through the Great Basin
Wednesday into Thursday, which may bring strong winds to the
desert and mountain peaks during that time. This system is not
expected to cause any precipitation, due to the fact that it
will be moving out of western Canada and not offshore where it
would otherwise pick up some marine air. The dry pattern is
expected to continue through the weekend as a ridge builds in
from the Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR visibilities are expected at all TAF sites until 20Z
Tuesday. Between 12Z and 19Z Tuesday, VLIFR conditions have a
50% to 70% chance of occurring in dense fog. Conditions are
expected to improve into MVFR/VFR conditions after 20Z and
continue through at least 10Z-12Z Wednesday.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday December 2 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced,
and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier
Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ337>339.
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ301>303-
305>307-309>316.
&&
$$
Aviation...Molina
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 021046
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
246 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...02/155 AM.
Near normal temperatures are expected the next few days with
some breezy Santa Ana winds at times Wednesday and Thursday.
A significant warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into
the middle of next week with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/222 AM.
The upper level pattern across the eastern Pacific and the West
coast continues to favor storms riding up and over California and
down into the Great Basin. So while Monday's Santa Ana is mostly
done, some lingering northeast winds still continue in the usual
favored areas. And another Santa Ana is on the way Wednesday and
Thursday. In the meantime, sub advisory level northeast winds will
continue through this morning before a brief period of neutral or
slight onshore flow develops this afternoon and evening with some
traditional west to northwest sea breezes developing. Afternoon
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal but morning
lows will be chilly under a dry air mass and minimal marine
inversion. Frost Advisories and Freeze warnings are in effect for
the coldest interior areas including the Antelope Valley and
Cuyama valley. Overnight lows are expected to warm a few degrees
with the transition to onshore flow tonight.
A return to offshore flow will occur Wednesday and Thursday
following the next trough into the Great Basin. Like this last
event there isn't a ton of upper level support but some low end
advisory level winds are possible in portions of the Ventura/LA
Valleys and mountains. This is another cooler Santa Ana event so
highs will still be mostly in the 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/245 AM.
A pattern shift will begin Friday and continue into next week as
an unseasonably strong high pressure system sets up over the
eastern Pacific. Latest models are indicating that the anticyclone
will peak at 592dam Friday morning which is pegging the 99th to
100th percentile in strength. While the high does weaken slightly
after that, it's still at the 98th percentile as late as next
Tuesday. With this persistent strong ridging across the region
temperatures will be warming up quite a bit with warmest day
likely next Wednesday. In the meantime, highs will be 3-6 degrees
above normal this weekend, warming to 5-10 degrees above normal
next week. At this time not seeing any Santa Ana's next week but
some increasing northerly flow is likely over the weekend which
could bring some gusty winds to some of the mountain areas.
&&
.AVIATION...02/1014Z.
Around 0930Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX, but there
was a surface-based inversion up to around 700 feet with a
temperature near 16 degrees Celsius.
VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a
moderate chance of MVFR visibilities or VLIFR conditions in dense
fog at Los Angeles County terminals and KPRB through 16Z. There is
a low to moderate chance of moderate turbulence through 14Z at
Los Angeles County valley and Ventura County terminals.
KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR visibilities or VLIFR
conditions through 16Z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
through the period. Any easterly winds will remain less 7 knots.
KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through period. There is a 10
percent chance of moderate turbulence through 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...02/214 AM.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. The latest
observations indicate seas running higher than progged. Meanwhile,
there is less confidence in an offshore wind event Wednesday
night through Thursday, which could affect the nearshore coastal
waters.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and beyond 30 NM of the Central Coast, winds and seas will likely
remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this
afternoon, then there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of SCA level
seas developing tonight through Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Winds and seas should mostly remain below SCA levels Thursday
through Saturday, with winds increasing to near SCA levels at
times, mainly Friday night and Saturday night.
For the nearshore waters, waters inside 30 NM off the Cental
Coast, and across the southern California bight, winds and seas
will likely remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon,
then there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of SCA level winds with
short-period seas developing on Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to generally
remain below SCA levels through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...01/806 PM.
A long period west-northwest swell will bring building surf
to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday morning. High
Surf Advisories have been issued across the Central Coast (8 to 12
feet) and Ventura coastline (7 feet). Surf heights up to 6 feet
can be expected elsewhere. Also, very high tides of 7 to 7.7
(MLLW) are expected across all beaches.
The combination of the long period swell and high tides could
result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding,
especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 12 PM
Tuesday through Thursday.
The Ventura coastline has the greatest overlap of high tides and
surf heights on Wednesday. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued from 3AM to 10AM for enhanced impacts. Please
see CFWLOX for more details. However, minor tidal overflow will be
possible during times of high tides Tuesday through Thursday in
low lying areas near the beach.
Beach Hazard statements have been issued for Santa Barbara
and LA County Coastline from Tuesday through Saturday morning.
Elevated surf will be highest Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
for zone 38. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
for zones 344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
PM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
PM PST Wednesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST
Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 011941
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1141 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of clouds, mist, or fog continue in the Central Valley
for the next few mornings.
- Breezy north to east winds Wednesday into Thursday, strongest
in the Valley and Delta.
- Weak system brushes by the area this weekend, bringing the
chance for showers, mainly across Shasta County. Dry weather
continues elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Tonight - Tuesday...
Morning fog and stratus have begin to break up early this
afternoon (finally!), more so than we've seen the past few days.
Latest hi-res guidance attempts to clear out the entire Sac and
northern San Joaquin valleys by this evening before sunset. The
set-up for tonight will be a battle between how much we clear out
over the next several hours and an incoming cloud shield from
inside-slider system over the the Great Basin that will drop south
across the area tonight. There may be enough clearing across the
southern Sac Valley and northern San Joaquin before the clouds
arrive to allow for the development of fog again by Tuesday
morning. Certainly will be something to watch in the near-term.
...Wednesday - Friday...
Aforementioned inside-slider will skirt southeast of the state on
Wednesday and into the Four Corners region by Wednesday night
into Thursday. Tightened gradient will allow for breezy north to
northeast winds across the area during the period. Winds will be
strongest in the typical spots with a northerly pattern: across
the western side of the Sac Valley and into the Delta (gusts 20-35
mph), and over the Sierra crest (up to 45 mph). Not expecting too
much in the way of impacts with the wind but it should be enough
to scour out persistent Valley stratus and fog. Ridging then
rebuilds over the area for the end of the work week with near-
normal temperatures.
...Saturday - Sunday...
A weak shortwave will move across the Pacific Northwest this
weekend leading to more zonal flow across the area. Also brings
about the potential for light showers, mainly across Shasta County
and northern Sierra but ensembles aren't too excited about much in
the way of accumulation or any impacts. Elsewhere dry weather will
continue. The next hint at a potential pattern change comes by the
following weekend but we'll see how that develops over the next
week or so.
&&
.AVIATION...
Gradually improving ceilings across the Central Valley this
afternoon and evening, should improve back to VFR. Depending on
degree of clearing, will likely see another round of BF/FG and low
stratus for most sites returning tonight after 08-12Z. Potential
for period of IFR/LIFR cigs, especially from Sacramento southward.
Generally light and variable surface winds less than 10 kts for
TAF sites thru Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 021141
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
341 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy coastal low clouds for this morning will become more
widespread and spread onto the coastal slopes of the mountains for
late tonight into early Wednesday as the marine layer rapidly
deepens. Gusty north winds will develop through and below the
Cajon Pass on Wednesday afternoon with more widespread and
stronger northeasterly Santa Ana winds for Wednesday night along
and below the coastal slopes of the mountains with the stronger
gusts to around 45 mph. Northeast to east winds will continue for
Thursday into Friday morning, but with decreasing coverage and
strength. High temperatures will cool to a few degrees above
average on Wednesday. This will be followed by warming into early
next week with high temperatures for Tuesday of next week 10 to 15
degrees above average for inland areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The marine layer is around 1000 to 1500 feet deep early this
morning. Satellite imagery shows coverage of low clouds is quite
patch for the coastal waters and adjacent coastal areas with the
greatest coverage over northern Orange County.
A low pressure system moving southward into the Great Basin
tonight will strengthen the onshore flow across southern
California. The marine layer will deepen rapidly through tonight.
The marine layer will deepen to around 4500 feet for early
Wednesday morning with coastal low clouds spreading well inland
and onto the coastal slopes of the mountains. There could be some
light showers or patchy drizzle late tonight into early Wednesday
morning for the inner coastal waters into adjacent coastal areas
with the chance of measurable rainfall less than 10 percent.
Gusty north winds will develop through and below the Cajon Pass
on Wednesday afternoon with more widespread and stronger
northeasterly winds for Wednesday night along and below the
coastal slopes of the mountains with the stronger gusts to around
45 mph. Northeast to east winds will continue for Thursday into
Friday morning, but with decreasing coverage and strength. Lowest
daytime humidity on Thursday for the valleys and inland coastal
areas will fall to 15 to 20 percent, then recover to 20 to 25
percent on Friday.
Cooling will spread inland through Wednesday with high
temperatures on Wednesday a few degrees below average. High
temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm a few to around 5
degrees on Thursday with the warming spreading inland on Friday
through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Northeast to east winds will continue to weaken through Friday
morning with the stronger gusts to 35 mph on Friday morning. Dry
weather with a warming trend will continue into early next week.
With the warming, high temperatures for Tuesday of next week will
be 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland areas. High
temperatures for next week will range from the lower 70s near the
coast to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the valleys with the lower
deserts around 80.
&&
.AVIATION...
021030Z....Patchy and intermittent coastal low clouds and fog will
continue this morning through 16Z. Bases with any cigs that form
will be 500-900 feet MSL, with vis 1-5SM. Isolated vis 0-1SM. More
widespread low clouds to develop after 01Z rapidly and move fully
inland to nearly fill the entire coastal basin overnight into
Wednesday. Bases would start out fairly low 500-1000 feet MSL, but
will rise to 1800-2500 feet MSL with tops rising above 4000 feet.
Locally reduced vis over higher coastal terrain and foothills.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Astronomical high tides are forecast to occur each morning Wednesday
through Friday, threatening minor tidal overflow and beach erosion.
Chances of these impacts are higher Wednesday and Thursday mornings
as elevated surf up to 4-6 feet combines with the high tides,
especially for San Diego County. Check the Coastal Hazard Message
for details.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Friday morning
for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal
Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 020544
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
944 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Less fog and stratus today, even less tomorrow.
- Inside slider promotes gusty offshore flow Wednesday morning
across North Bay, Bay Area, and Santa Cruz Mtns. Gusts to 45
mph possible in higher terrain. Limited fire weather concern
thanks to high fuel moisture.
- Quiet and dry after midweek into the weekend. Still looking
like the next chance for a meaningful pattern change is around
the middle of the month.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region with
lingering spillover from the Tule fog present in the far interior
reaches of southeastern Santa Clara and eastern San Benito
Counties. The North Bay is seeing wisps of high-level clouds, the
forerunners of a stream of clouds moving southwards over southern
Oregon and northern California. This feature will disrupt the
radiational cooling expected tonight, the question is how much,
and will it be enough to keep the Tule fog, in addition to patches
of fog in the Bay Area valleys from forming tonight? The latest
runs of the high resolution models suggest that it won't be enough
with the fog returning to the interior Bay Area valleys through
the night. Nevertheless, the night shift will monitor the
developing situation overnight and assess the need for a Dense Fog
Advisory as needed. No other changes to the forecast at this time.
DialH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)
Less cloudiness for most places today thanks to a weak upper level
disturbance and a light push of offshore winds overnight. This
helped dry the low-to-mid levels and provide enough mixing aloft
to aid in a quicker clearing to clear skies today. Some areas
still holding on to fog and low clouds in far eastern Contra Costa
and Alameda counties bordering the central valley. We can expect
this trend to continue into Tuesday with dryer and in place,
resulting in temps a couple of degrees warmer than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
By Tuesday night we'll start to see a deep upper low digging into
the Great Basin in what appears as an inside slider. Surface high
pressure building in northern NV in the wake of this system
promotes a strong offshore oriented pressure gradient that will
result in gusty offshore winds. Winds set to increase going into
Tuesday night, increasing through early Wednesday morning and
peaking sometime by noon Wednesday. We're anticipating NE winds
25-35 mph with potential gusts to 40 mph across the North Bay,
East Bay Hill, and Santa Cruz Mtns. Some potential for isolated
gusts to 50 mph along the higher ridgetops of the interior North
Bay. Things will certainly dry out with this burst of offshore
flow, but we aren't expecting RH to get below the 30-40% range for
most. Isolated areas at highest elevations in the interior North
Bay may see RH as low as 25-30% Wednesday. Despite the gusty and
dry conditions, fuel moisture should mitigate most fire weather
concerns thanks to productive rainfall in early November. Beyond
the middle of the week, things look much quieter and a return to a
benign pattern with the ridiculously resilient ridge (RRR)
dominating through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Only high clouds
in the sky, but visibilities are starting to drop at some terminals.
Generally an optimistic persistence forecast on tap. High clouds and
offshore flow should at least somewhat limit the extent in time and
space of fog/stratus.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with easterly flow. Moderate to high
confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR and calm at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing
through the TAF period at both terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 849 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous marine conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly
breezes increase to become fresh to strong and seas become rough
to very rough. Gale force gusts are expected over the northern
outer waters. Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly
breezes and moderate seas. Locally strong winds and rough seas
will remain possible over the far northwestern portion of the
northern outer waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening with
a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can
be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at
times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into
tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This
combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will
increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger
in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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