ca discuss
Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 152228
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
228 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...The break in wet weather and above average
temperatures is coming to an end. Rain chances increase in Lake,
Mendocino, and Trinity this evening and overnight. More widespread
rain and gusty winds are forecast Sunday into Monday. An extended
period of cold overnight lows with widespread frost and interior
freezing temperatures will begin overnight Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry day is expected until this evening,
when a cutoff low in southern California moves northward. Light
rain is possible on the western edge of this low this evening and
overnight. The highest chances are in Lake, eastern Mendocino, and
Trinity Counties. Rain amounts are fairly meager for this first
round, with generally less than a 1/4 inch forecast.
A stronger frontal system will increase rain chances throughout the
day on Sunday. A shortwave trough and associated well defined
frontal boundary will quickly move over the N CA coast Sunday
afternoon/evening. A burst of heavy precipitation rates (0.3 to 0.5
inches per hour) can be expected with the frontal passage Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Forecast rainfall totals Sunday
into Monday have increase to a broad 1-2 inches, with isolated
southwest facing higher terrain to receive 2.5 inches. Though
these totals are relatively low, areas that experience the maximum
estimated rates may see some brief minor/nuisance level
hydrological issues.
There will be some elevated instability with the trough, which
will likely be evolving into a closed low near or south of the
Mendocino coast as it dives south past Point Arena. Wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph can be expected with the frontal passage Sunday
afternoon through Sunday evening. The highest probabilities for
wind gusts over 30 mph are for the coastal and areas over Cape
Mendocino and southward. There will be increased instability and
forcing around the developing low closer to Mendocino and Lake
counties. This brings higher chances for more prolonged breezy
winds. Winds sharply shift northerly behind the front (near 10 pm
Sunday) as the low moves south. These northerly winds will be
breezy (20-30 mph gusts) through Monday afternoon. The environment
will also be sufficient for thunderstorm development for coastal
areas around and south of Cape Mendocino.
Snow levels are likely to be high at 4500-5000 ft, but a dusting
to an inch of snow is possible at Scott Mountain Pass on Highway
3. Lingering showers may continue through the day Monday before
tapering off Monday night.
The upper-level trough behind the front will bring a much colder and
drier airmass. Widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures
can be expected Monday night and Tuesday night. NBM shows high
chances for temperatures below 36F in Trinity, eastern Mendocino,
and Lake counties. Chances for freezing temperatures less than 32F
are 50 to 60% in the coldest valleys of Trinity and Mendocino
counties. Wednesday will have the coldest morning, and if offshore
flow is weak enough, areas of frost will be likely over coastal
areas as well. There is currently a high chance (80%) for a
minimum temperature below 37F for isolated portions of the coast
such as around McKinleyville. High temperatures will also be
cooler, with even the warmest valleys struggling to reach 60.
Overnight lows will remain chilly through next week, but values
will nearly align with seasonal norms.
Most ensemble members are in agreement in an additional system
arriving late next week, returning wet weather to the area.
Confidence on impacts is low at this point, but rain, gusty winds,
and mountain snow are all possible. Stay tuned. JB/JJW
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR conditions developed overnight across the
interior valleys, including at UKI. Fog and low clouds across the
interior valleys dissipated between 18Z and 20Z today. Mostly VFR
conditions are then expected for all terminals through at least
3Z this evening. Conditions will most likely deteriorate at
coastal aerodromes after 03Z to 06Z Sun as an upstream trough
induces a push of shallow moisture onto the coast. Winds are
forecast to remain light under 10kt or calm. /ZVS
&&
.MARINE...Northerly winds will increase in the lee of Cape Mendo
with localized gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening. Steep
waves up to 6 ft are expected to build in lee of Cape Mendo by this
evening. A small craft advisory has been hoisted for the southern
outer waters. These conditions may briefly extend into the inner
waters during the evening Sat. Otherwise calmer conditions with
lighter northerlies expected north of Cape Mendo. A mix of small
wave groups will also continue to subside today.
Next frontal system is forecast to rapidly approach on Sunday.
Strong to near gale sustained winds are forecast to develop in the
wake of the front Sunday evening into Monday. Models are now in a
better agreement with gale force gust N-NW winds up to around 40 kts
across the outer waters, with the strongest south of Cape Mendocino
on the backside of the front. Gale Watches are out for the outer
waters and the southern inner zone. A more brief period of gale
conditions is likely in portions of the northern inner zones as
well. A Hazardous Seas Watch is up for the zone (450) to account
for the potential gale conditions, large steep waves, and confused
seas state.
A large mid to short period W-NW swell will also arrive by Mon
and seas will once again become hazardous. Seas could reach 18-20
ft by early Monday, especially across the southern outer waters.
Another deep low will rapidly develop and approach on Wed and the
risk for southerly gales with large steep waves will once again
increase and may persist into Thu. DUG/JJW
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A larger NW swell will move through the
waters Sunday evening through Monday, resulting in building surf
along the beaches and increasing the potential of sneaker waves.
Breaking waves will increase rapidly Sunday evening, reaching as
high as 14 to 19 feet by Sunday evening along the northwest
facing beaches. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with many
minutes between waves. Pay attention and stay above the high water
line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves
have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on
the ocean! /ZVS
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
PZZ470.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Sunday for PZZ475.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
for PZZ475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka
For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Office: HNX
FXUS66 KHNX 150937
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
137 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The system has shifted south this morning, bringing
potentially excessive rainfall to the Kern desert and mountains,
the south Valley and into the southern Sierra Nevada foothills
and southern West Side Hills.
2. A second, colder system may bring additional precipitation
to much of the region by Sunday night into Monday, with snow
levels down to 5000 to 6000 feet.
3. A third system may impact the region by Thursday, with
similar snow levels to the Sunday night system, with
precipitation possible through Friday afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The system has begun to shift south this morning, leading to
more precipitation coming in from the south and impacting the
Kern County desert and mountains, as well as the southern-most
Sierra Nevada and southern San Joaquin Valley. A Slight Risk
(at least 15%) has been issued for this region today, mainly
for Kern County and southern portions of Kings and Tulare
Counties. There is also a 10 to 25 percent chance for
thunderstorm development this afternoon as daytime heating
reaches the right point to kick off formation. Precipitation is
expected to continue with this system through Sunday afternoon.
A second system may impact the region by early Monday morning,
with an open trough coming down from the north and pulling in
cold air from Canada, leading to a cooler system and lowered
snow levels. These levels are currently forecast to start at
6000 feet before dropping to around 5000 feet, meaning lower
elevation snow for the Sierra Nevada. There is again the risk
for excessive rainfall in the Kern mountains and Sierra Nevada
and it's foothills on Monday as it passes through. This system
is then expected to clear out by Tuesday evening.
The activity continues with a third system possible by early
Thursday morning through at least Friday night. Preliminary snow
levels for that time period are consistent with the Monday
system, around 5000 to 6000 feet.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday November 15, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and
Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ321-322-332>339.
&&
$$
EW
weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX
FXUS66 KLOX 160332
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
732 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...15/208 PM.
Scattered showers can be expected through Sunday. There is also a
slight chance of thunderstorms through early this evening.
This coming Wednesday looks to be dry and milder. Otherwise, the
stormy pattern will continue with periods of rain possible through
late next week. Below normal daytime temperatures can be expected
for much of the time as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/732 PM.
***UPDATE***
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate upper low
spinning just off the coast with plenty of moisture wrapping
around the low. Main shower activity has rotated over Ventura,
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main focus will be on
the upper low. This feature will continue to slowly move eastward,
moving inland overnight. Overnight, the cyclonic flow around the
low will keep some shower activity going over the entire area.
However, the intensity of the shower activity will gradually
diminish this evening and overnight. So, with this expectation of
diminishing intensity, the FLOOD WATCH will be allowed to expire
at 800 PM.
Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term with chance/likely POPs for all areas through the overnight
hours. So, only minor tweaks have been made to the forecast.
***From Previous Discussion***
***MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING***
The main rain bands with the current storm system will move off
to the N by late today as the upper level low center approaches
the coast. The rain pattern will turn to showers and persist into
tonight as the upper level low center passes thru the region.
Plenty of lingering moisture and increased instability will lead
to a chance to slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening especially over southern parts of the forecast area.
Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing heavy
rain, gusty winds and small hail.
While there is enough twist in the lower atmosphere to allow any
TSTM that forms to produce severe weather or even a weak tornado,
the real threat from any convection will be the rainfall rates
which could still be close to 0.50 inch to 1 inch per hour at
times. These rainfall rates on top of the already saturated
grounds will could well produce flash flooding anywhere. The
recent burn areas will be most vulnerable to flash flooding and
debris flows. A flash flood watch is in effect for much of the
area through 8 PM this evening.
The chance of showers will continue Sun but there could see some
peeks of sunshine at times. Mostly cloudy skies with just a slight
chance of showers can be expected Sun night.
The models are in pretty good agreement that an upper level
low/trof and surface frontal system will move down the CA coast
and into the fcst area on Mon and Mon night. The main frontal band
with light to moderate rain should move thru the area from NW to
SE thru the day Mon then as the upper level low center moves in
Mon night into Tue there will be lingering showers. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well.
Preliminary rainfall amounts tonight through Sun is expected to
be in the 0.50 inch to 1.50 inch range for the coast and vlys, and
in the 1 to 2.5 inch range in the mtns. For Sun nigh thru Tue,
the entire area should see about 0.50 to 1.00 inch, with locally
higher amounts up to 2 inches in the mtns.
Snow levels will remain pretty high thru Mon then lower to 5500
to 6000 feet by Tue, with any snow of a few inches possible at
higher elevations.
As with almost all rain events this late in the year max temps
across the csts and vlys will be in upper 50s to mid 60s all three
days or 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...15/202 PM.
The models are in generally good agreement that a dry NW flow
aloft will prevail Wed with clear to partly cloudy skies and
milder temperatures.
Another system is slated to affect the state on Thursday and
Friday. Since the storm is so far out in time, there is
considerable disagreement on the exact timing and intensity of
this system. Best to wait a little bit before talking about
specifics and just realize that it could be wet couple of days.
Next Sat is trending dry and milder. However, the models are
still not in complete agreement on that as the GFS shows some
lingering pcpn while the EC is dry.
&&
.AVIATION...15/2306Z.
At 2300Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep
moist layer up to at least 10000 feet.
Overall, low confidence in 00Z TAF package. Light to locally
moderate showers can be expected overnight. CIGs and VSBYS will
bounce around between IFR and VFR levels overnight with low
confidence in timing of category changes.
KLAX...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. CIGs and VSBYs will likely
settle into MVFR levels this evening and overnight, but there is a
50% chance of periods of VFR conditions. East to southeast winds
around 7 knots are expected through 08Z.
KBUR...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. CIGs and VSBYs will likely
settle into MVFR levels this evening and overnight, but there is a
50% chance of periods of VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...15/732 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in combination of SCA
level winds and seas. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. On Thursday, there is a 30-40%
chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through
Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of a combination of SCA level
winds and seas. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds with the highest chances across the Santa Barbara Channel.
For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.
There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters
south of Point Conception through tonight. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail,
dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch now in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for
zones 87-88-346>358-362-366>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sirard
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO
FXUS66 KSTO 152110
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
110 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread light to moderate precipitation spreads from the
south late this afternoon through Sunday morning. Less
widespread precipitation expected Sunday afternoon.
- A colder system will bring more widespread rain and moderate
mountain snow Sunday PM into Monday. Breezy southerly winds
will accompany the system, along with isolated thunderstorms on
Monday.
- Drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday morning,
followed by another weather system late Wednesday into Friday.
.DISCUSSION...
...Saturday through Sunday Morning...
Light to moderate widespread precipitation is expected late this
afternoon through Sunday morning as an upper low pushes northward.
Highest precipitation amounts are expected over the eastern
Valley and Sierra foothills/mountains. Forecast precipitation
totals are 0.75-1.00 in the Valley and Delta. Amounts over the
mountains and foothills are generally between 1.00 to 1.75 inches.
Snow levels will start out above 8000 feet before dropping down
to 6500-7500 feet Sunday morning. Breezy southerly winds will
also increase over the weekend with the strongest gusts in the
Delta and northern Sacramento Valley.
...Late Sunday through Early Next Week...
Less widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon as
system exits the area. Then, renewed chances for widespread
precipitation are forecast late Sunday into Monday as colder
weather system drops down from the north. WPC Guidance shows the
latest precipitation totals to be around 0.50-1.00" in the Valley
and Delta, with 1.00-1.50" in the foothills and mountains. This
system will be colder, with snow levels around 6500-7000 feet
Sunday, lowering to around 5500-6000 feet by Monday morning. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra and
southern Cascades above 6000 feet from 10 PM tonight through 4 PM
Monday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are
anticipated above 6000 feet with 1 to 2 feet at the highest
peaks. Additionally there is a 10 to 20% chance of isolated
thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds are also
expected with this system, with forecast gusts between 25 to 35
mph. The strongest winds are expected across portions of the
northern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and the Sierra.
...Mid to Late Next Week...
Drier conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Another system may approach the region Wednesday evening into
Friday, potentially bringing widespread precipitation and
mountain snow. However, high uncertainty remains regarding
potential storm track and precipitation totals.
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions until around 05z in the northern San Joaquin
Valley as a weather system moves in from the south. Conditions
gradually deteriorate northward in the evening/night hours as rain
overtakes most of the area. MVFR/IFR conditions with southerly
wind gusts up to 25 knots in the Valley; 35 knots in the Delta.
Snow levels around 6500 feet in the mountains Sunday morning with
20-30 knot southerly wind gusts.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Monday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$
Office: SGX
FXUS66 KSGX 160522
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
922 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A pacific storm will continue impact the region, producing
scattered showers through tonight, some showers could produce locally
heavy rainfall at times. Intermittent showers can be expected on
Sunday with periods of sunshine. Another weaker system will move
through the area on Monday and Tuesday, bringing another chance
of rain showers as well as greater snowfall for resort communities.
An additional storm system will approach the region by next
Thursday and Friday, but forecast details remain uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
The low pressure system centered to our west is beginning to move
east. The bands of widespread rain - heavy at times - have moved
to the east with the frontal boundary. Behind the boundary in the
colder air, scattered showers are moving from southwest to
northeast across the region. These showers will mostly be light
but have the potential for brief, locally heavy downpours.
Additional rainfall amounts from tonight through Sunday evening
will range from one third inch to three quarters inch in the
coastal areas and inland valleys. The mountain slopes could
receive an additional 1-1.5 inches and the deserts a few
hundredths.
The strong southerly winds associated with the frontal bands have
also moved east into AZ and at this hour, winds are mostly
gusting to 20 mph or less. There were several lightning strikes
this afternoon over the lower deserts but those thunderstorms have
also moved east. One lightning discharge was detected in the last
hour and it was over Los Angeles County. Additional strikes will
be possible through tonight. There could be a brief period without
rainfall Sunday evening/night as a dynamic ridge of high pressure
between the low pressure systems moves over the region.
From previous discussion...
The storm system will move northeastward through Sunday over our
region, where leftover light to moderate showers will continue off
and on for areas mainly along and west of the mountains. Like the
forecast for tonight, some of these storms may produce rain rates
near one half inch/hour.
A low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move
down the coast over the weekend, pushing into Southern California
by Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance is in better agreement on
the timing of this system producing a line of light to moderate
intensity rain showers by late Monday morning into the afternoon
moving from west to east. Though there is still some uncertainty
on exact rainfall totals, confidence is high that these will be
much less than those of this weekend. This system will also be
colder, dropping 850 mb temps closer to 1-3C, so snow levels are
expected to go down somewhere near 5,500 feet. This will yield a
greater chance for areas like Big Bear to see accumulations
greater than 1 inch. The coldest part of the system will move into
our region on Tuesday, with highs staying in the 30s/40s across
the mountains, with 50s/60s elsewhere.
A brief drier and sunnier day is expected by Wednesday as the early
week system departs. Model guidance begins to diverge on an
additional storm system moving into the region by later next week.
Model guidance begins to diverge on the potential for yet another
storm system to move into the region later in the week. Confidence
is low on the exact placement of this storm system and exactly
where/if we receive any precipitation from this. Model ensembles
show about one half to two thirds of members showing measurable
precipitation for those along and west of the mountains, so stay
tuned as we iron out the details.
&&
.AVIATION...
150500Z...Patchy -RA and scattered SHRA continue across coastal
basin. Main BKN-OVC layer at 3000-3500 feet MSL with SCT layers
beneath. BKN-OVC 1500-2500 feet MSL in RA/SHRA. VIS generally
greater than 6SM, locally 2-6SM where there is rain and 0-2SM where
clouds intersect terrain. SHRA to continue this evening with same
cloud bases and VIS reductions as tonight.
Between 08-16z Sun, more intense RA/SHRA along the coasts and
valleys along with breezy southeast winds bringing lowered bases and
reduced VIS, with high res guidance indicating highest chances in SD
County for impacts.
After 20Z Sun, -SHRA becomes more isolated, though continuing
through the evening.
WSW gusts 25-40 kts continue over mtns and desert slopes through
tonight. Desert sites to continue to have VCSH with the occasional
SHRA making it over the mountains and briefly reducing VIS/cigs.
Another round of heavier SHRA along the coasts and valleys along
with breezy southeast winds possible between 08-14Z Sun, bringing
lowered bases and reduced VIS, with high res guidance indicating
highest chances in SD County for impacts. Continued SHRA activity
for the coastal basin through the day Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Organized lines of showers will accompany south winds at 15-20 kts
and choppy seas tonight and Sunday morning. Seas 5-7 feet throughout
the coastal waters lower significantly by Sunday morning.
Winds strengthen again Monday afternoon ahead of the next storm
system. There is still some uncertainty in exact intensity of winds,
but gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible along with another
round of precipitation.
&&
.BEACHES...
Elevated surf 4-6 feet with sets to 7 feet continue for west facing
beaches, though reduce gradually overnight. Surf becomes elevated
once more with an additional storm system late Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink
Office: MTR
FXUS66 KMTR 160513
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
913 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
- Light rain spreading across the region from south to north
today. Highest totals from Monterey Bay southward, less than an
inch further north.
- Next system on track for late Sunday with a strong cold front
and a period of moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Monday
morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday morning.
- Drier Tuesday with chilly temperatures through the rest of the
week. Next rain chance Thursday, details uncertain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
No update to the forecast this evening as we watch the backside of
the exiting system to our south and east continue to produce
beneficial rainfall across the Central Coast. The rain shield
began to move across the Bay Area over the past couple of hours
and will eventually shift into the North Bay. The coldest cloud
tops have spread over much of our area, so there may be pockets of
moderate rainfall at times, however light rain is expected for
most locations. The next round of rain expected late Sunday night
into early Monday morning is expected to bring more impacts.
Strong winds and periods of heavy rainfall are expected to move
onshore late Sunday evening and move across our area overnight
into Monday. The Monday morning commute may be a messy one, give
yourself plenty of extra time if necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(This evening through Sunday)
Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will
continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around
moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier
rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the
Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through
tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all
of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in-
all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals
so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south
where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of
writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big
Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay.
These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening.
Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur
coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern
Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area,
and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)
We don't really get much of a break on Sunday before the next
system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase
late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast
associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW.
Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics
this past Friday's system in terms of amounts, with the typical
terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall
looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning
before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of
0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher
elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2".
Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big
Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during
this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded
thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post-
frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential
threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally
gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes.
Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly
temperatures. We aren't seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now,
but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning
lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next
rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is
tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 407 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. Rain showers will
continue to stream northwards over the next few hours before
stratiform rain takes over. North Bay terminals will be on the edge
of this, so conditions may be more in the realm of VCSH up there.
Winds will generally back through the TAF period. MVFR conditions
will prevail through most of the TAF period once rain showers
transition to stratiform rain. Conditions may deteriorate below MVFR
if a moderate to heavy rain shower develops over the terminal.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Rain
showers will continue to stream northward towards the terminal,
giving way to steady rain by tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected to
prevail once the stratiform rain arrives. Winds will back through
the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northerly flow at SNS. Rain showers will increase
in coverage and intensity over the next few hours, giving way to
stratiform rainfall. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 905 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Rain will persist through the night and into tomorrow morning with
widespread hazardous marine conditions arriving tomorrow evening.
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will back to become
southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns tomorrow night into Monday morning with an accompanying
chance of thunderstorms. Strong to near gale northwesterly
breezes with isolated gale force gusts are expected Monday.
Moderate seas tomorrow will build to become very rough for the
inner waters and outer waters by Monday morning. Seas slowly begin
to abate Wednesday. Rain chances return Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for Mry
Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...JM
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FXUS66 KMTR 160519
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
919 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
- Light rain spreading across the region from south to north
today. Highest totals from Monterey Bay southward, less than an
inch further north.
- Next system on track for late Sunday with a strong cold front
and a period of moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Monday
morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday morning.
- Drier Tuesday with chilly temperatures through the rest of the
week. Next rain chance Thursday, details uncertain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
No update to the forecast this evening as we watch the backside of
the exiting system to our south and east continue to produce
beneficial rainfall across the Central Coast. The rain shield
began to move across the Bay Area over the past couple of hours
and will eventually shift into the North Bay. The coldest cloud
tops have spread over much of our area, so there may be pockets of
moderate rainfall at times, however light rain is expected for
most locations. The next round of rain expected late Sunday night
into early Monday morning is expected to bring more impacts.
Strong winds and periods of heavy rainfall are expected to move
onshore late Sunday evening and move across our area overnight
into Monday. The Monday morning commute may be a messy one, give
yourself plenty of extra time if necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(This evening through Sunday)
Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will
continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around
moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier
rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the
Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through
tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all
of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in-
all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals
so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south
where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of
writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big
Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay.
These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening.
Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur
coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern
Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area,
and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)
We don't really get much of a break on Sunday before the next
system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase
late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast
associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW.
Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics
this past Friday's system in terms of amounts, with the typical
terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall
looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning
before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of
0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher
elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2".
Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big
Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during
this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded
thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post-
frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential
threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally
gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes.
Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly
temperatures. We aren't seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now,
but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning
lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next
rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is
tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with rain falling
across the region. Steady rain will continue through mid-to-late
morning before pulling east out of the area. While rain showers
can't be ruled out from this timeframe to early afternoon, it
looks like there will be at least somewhat of a break and perhaps
even an improvement to VFR. Rain showers return by mid-afternoon
with moderate to heavy rainfall on tap just beyond the 24 hour TAF
period. Winds will generally back through the TAF period. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
conditions expected to deteriorate below MVFR if a moderate to
heavy rain shower develops over a terminal.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and light
rain. Light rain will continue through mid-morning. Rain showers are
possible in the late morning to early afternoon time frame, but the
best chance will be late afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns late tomorrow night/early Monday morning in the form of a
fast moving cold front. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail
through the TAF period with improvement to VFR possible between rain
showers. Winds will back ahead of the cold front to become southerly
with a quick return to southwesterly after.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and
light rain at MRY and MVFR with drainage flow at SNS. Steady light
to moderate rainfall is expected through mid-morning with IFR/MVFR
conditions expected to prevail. Conditions will improve by late
morning with intermittent VFR possible, especially if there aren't
lingering rain showers. Rain showers return tomorrow night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Rain will persist through the night and into tomorrow morning with
widespread hazardous marine conditions arriving tomorrow evening.
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will back to become
southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns tomorrow night into Monday morning with an accompanying
chance of thunderstorms. Strong to near gale northwesterly
breezes with isolated gale force gusts are expected Monday.
Moderate seas tomorrow will build to become very rough for the
inner waters and outer waters by Monday morning. Seas slowly begin
to abate Wednesday. Rain chances return Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for Mry
Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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