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Office: LZK

FXUS64 KLZK 250820
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
320 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
There really aren't many changes to make in the short term
periods. Surface moisture will remain high, with patchy morning
fog. Daytime heating will interact with mesoscale boundaries over
the region, allowing for scattered, diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few strong storms are possible, with
winds the primary concern. With high precipitable water and low
level storm motion next to nothing, stronger storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, with localized flooding
issues possible. Temperatures will remain above average.
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
An elongated upper ridge will be stretching from NRN Mexico north
into the central Plains at the start of the long term period...with
AR on the ERN periphery of this ridge. Latest guidance is also
showing a tropical system somewhere over the Gulf of
Mexico...lifting generally NWD over time.

There is now a bit better agreement within the med range model
guidance compared to previous days on the general evolution of this
tropical system...which has this system lifting NWD somewhere over
MS/AL sometime early next week. Even so...some uncertainty remains
on the eventual evolution of this system...and what influence it
will have on AR. For low...it looks like this system will remain
east of AR as the upper ridge to the west attempts to expand further
E/NE over time. As a result...have just some slightly increased POPs
across ERN sections of the state through the middle of next week.
Temps will be in the 80s to low 90s...with lows in the mid 60s to
low 70s.

By late in the forecast...the upper ridge looks to expand further
NE...with any influence of the tropical system exiting the region.
As a result...expect POPs to decrease...and temps to rise. Given
this trend...some of the warmest temps of the year so far may be
seen by late next week...with highs mainly in the upper 80s to upper
90s...and lows in the 70s.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  70  89  67 /  50  30  40  20
Camden AR         90  71  92  70 /  40  30  40  20
Harrison AR       83  67  87  65 /  50  30  30  10
Hot Springs AR    89  71  90  70 /  40  30  40  20
Little Rock   AR  87  71  90  70 /  40  30  40  20
Monticello AR     88  72  89  70 /  40  30  40  30
Mount Ida AR      87  70  90  68 /  40  30  40  20
Mountain Home AR  84  68  87  65 /  50  30  30  10
Newport AR        86  72  89  70 /  50  30  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     87  71  90  70 /  40  30  40  20
Russellville AR   88  72  90  70 /  40  30  40  20
Searcy AR         87  69  89  69 /  50  30  40  20
Stuttgart AR      87  72  90  71 /  40  30  40  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...62