Office: LZK
FXUS64 KLZK 031828 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1228 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
- A brief warmup today before a cold front moves through by
tonight.
- Cooler temperatures expected on Thursday with precip most
likely across southern Arkansas through Thursday night.
- There is a low chance for a brief period of winter weather
Thursday.
- Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures expected for
the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Given the past 24-36 hours of temp and ceiling trends, expect
cooler than NBM temp fcst, w/ high temps struggling to reach or
exceed 40F over much of AR today, w/ the exception being where
clouds may clear acrs NWrn AR. Have kept this trend going forward
into Thurs, with temps lkly once again staying several degrees
below blended base guidance.
In addition to cooler than fcst temps, the precipitation fcst is
still largely uncertain thru the next 24 hrs, as 12Z short term
guidance has trended towards higher PoPs along and behind the
apprchg frnt. This raises the question of impacts of winter
precip, given incrsg potential and an earlier onset time. Both
HRRR/RAP fcst soundings suggest favorable thermal profiles,
alongside higher PoPs, w/ portions of Cntrl AR (mainly along and
north of I40), and the Nrn third of AR in this area of
uncertainty. Wl continue to monitor short term guidance thru the
aftn to evng for trend consistency, w/ confidence of higher
impact winter precip still low attm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Early morning satellite imagery shows an extensive area of stratus
across much of the SE US, including much of eastern Arkansas. This
will have an impact on overnight lows in these areas, while clear
sky conditions elsewhere will allow temperatures to be quite
cool. Additionally, some FG development may be possible across
portions of western and northern Arkansas. With temperatures below
freezing in these areas, any fog would be freezing fog. Will
monitor trends through daybreak in case a dense fog advisory is
necessary.
By this afternoon, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer as
sfc ridging shifts east of the area and southerly winds are
briefly noted. This will be short lived as a cold front is
expected to move through from later this evening through tonight
which will usher in much cooler temperatures for Thursday.
In the mid-level flow aloft a weak H500 disturbance will move from
the SW US Wednesday evening to just east of Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. A corresponding sfc low will move east along the Gulf
coast with precip spreading north into Arkansas. Precip is most
likely across southern AR Thursday into Thursday night. There
remains a limited threat for a brief period of freezing rain or
light sleet along the northern edge of the precip.
Mostly dry conditions are expected through the end of the period
with slightly warmer temperatures into early next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Low cloud cover, including MVFR/IFR CIGs remains in place over
much of AR via recent vis sat imgry. Expect MVFR/IFR condns to
prevail thru at least the first 12 hours of the PD, w/ NWrn Nrn
terminals seeing some improvements thru the day today. Elsewhere,
low CIGs wl persist w/ light SE winds bcmg light and variable
briefly ahead of an apprchg cdfrnt. Winds wl bcm Nrly late
overnight and towards 12Z behind the frnt. Precip is expected to
incrs in covg acrs SWrn to Srn AR beyond 12Z Thurs mrng, but have
withheld mentions for now due to lower confidence on covg.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 29 40 25 46 / 0 20 30 10
Camden AR 36 43 32 46 / 50 60 60 10
Harrison AR 28 38 26 48 / 10 10 20 0
Hot Springs AR 33 43 29 48 / 10 30 40 10
Little Rock AR 34 41 29 45 / 10 30 40 10
Monticello AR 37 44 34 47 / 60 80 70 20
Mount Ida AR 33 44 29 50 / 10 30 30 0
Mountain Home AR 28 38 24 47 / 10 10 20 0
Newport AR 32 39 28 43 / 0 20 40 10
Pine Bluff AR 34 43 30 45 / 30 50 60 10
Russellville AR 33 43 29 49 / 10 20 20 0
Searcy AR 30 40 27 45 / 0 20 40 10
Stuttgart AR 34 42 31 45 / 20 40 50 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...67/72
AVIATION...72
