Office: LZK
FXUS64 KLZK 241139
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
A weak frontal bndry was aligned acrs north AR early this mrng, with
a few light showers noted along it. Predawn temps were in the 50s to
the north of the front, with 60s noted elsewhere. Seeing locally
dense fog form over the far north, mainly in the vcnty of the area
lakes and rivers.
Model solutions this mrng are in overall good agreement, taking
the fnt into southwest AR later today and tngt before stalling
out. Rain chcs today wl be confined mainly to locations along and
south of the front, albeit mainly in the 20-30% range.
The aforementioned front wl eventually return to the north as a warm
fnt Thu into Thu night in response to a deepening low pres system
over the eastern Rockies. Convection wl incrs in coverage Thu as a
weak upper SWT apchs fm the west. The highest rain chcs (60-80%) wl
be focused along and north of the warm fnt. Cannot rule out a few
strong storms, but the main concern wl be the potential for heavy
rainfall and possibly some localized flooding.
The bndry is expected to lift north of AR Thu ngt, with warm and
humid conds returning to the FA. The focus for any lingering
convection wl be acrs parts of north and western AR by early Fri
mrng. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont beyond this fcst period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
An unsettled weather pattern will overshadow the entire period of
Friday through Tuesday. In the upper lvls, a series of closed lows
and SWTs will approach the region. In tandem at the sfc, a series of
low pressure systems will remain in the Central Plains region of the
CONUS with their attendant southward extending cold front and
dryline in cohesion with a warm front that will lift through the
region and allow for a large warm sector to open up across the
Southern Plains into the Mid-South regions of the CONUS. At the
current time, a slight risk of severe weather will be possible
across portions of Arkansas on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as all
modes of severe weather will be possible. Expect several rounds of
rain and thunderstorms across the CWA through Monday when the trof
axis finally pushes over the Mid-South region of the CONUS and the
sfc cold front finally moves across the state of Arkansas and in the
wake of the cold front a sfc high pressure will move into the region
of the Ohio River Valley of the CONUS by Tuesday bringing an end to
the unsettled period of weather across Arkansas and the CWA.
A threat that needs to be also addressed is the possibility of
excessive rainfall over the period of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
in which localized flash flooding will be possible across the state
and CWA. The threat itself needs to be treated in the same capacity
of the threat of the traditional all modes of severe weather
associated with a few tornadoes, severe wind gusts, and large hail.
Details will continue to become more clear in the next 12 to 24
hours. However, confidence continues to build that severe weather
will be likely across portions of the state and CWA on Friday and
Saturday with more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms
possible on Sunday along with the threat of flash flooding,
especially in locations vulnerable to flooding.
Temperatures over this period will be slightly above normal with
respect to both low and high temperatures over this period compared
to climatological normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Poorly defined frontal bndry was situated acrs central AR this
mrng, with mainly VFR ceilings noted over much of the FA.
Localized IFR conds ovr north AR due to patchy dense fog, but
conds wl improve in the next few hrs. The front wl cont to sag to
the south before stalling out later today. The bndry is expected
to lift back north tngt as a warm fnt. CAMS are showing some sctd
showers/few storms forming along and north of the bndry late today
and tngt. Included PROB30 groups at some sites, but confidence
rmns low regarding areal coverage attm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 54 64 61 / 10 50 80 20
Camden AR 76 61 80 65 / 30 20 20 0
Harrison AR 72 53 62 58 / 10 70 80 40
Hot Springs AR 77 58 72 65 / 30 50 60 10
Little Rock AR 77 59 72 65 / 20 50 70 10
Monticello AR 77 61 79 67 / 30 20 30 0
Mount Ida AR 76 58 73 65 / 40 60 60 10
Mountain Home AR 73 53 62 58 / 10 50 80 40
Newport AR 74 55 66 61 / 0 30 70 20
Pine Bluff AR 77 59 75 65 / 20 40 50 0
Russellville AR 77 56 67 62 / 20 60 70 20
Searcy AR 75 54 67 61 / 10 50 80 10
Stuttgart AR 77 59 70 66 / 10 40 60 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...44
