FXUS64 KLZK 211206 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
Widespread MVFR conditions/some IFR conditions will be noted
through tonight with areas of rain and low clouds in the
forecast. There will be isolated thunderstorms in southeast
Arkansas. Winds will be north/northeast at 6 to 12 mph, with
gusts from 16 to 20 mph in places. (46)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Rain was slowly building to the southeast early this morning, and
gradually tapering off in northwest Arkansas. It was becoming
progressively colder. In fact, readings were around freezing in
portions of Boone and Newton Counties, with some freezing rain
reported. Given that ice amounts will be spotty/light, opted to
issue a Special Weather Statement to address the possibility
of slick spots on bridges/overpasses.
Otherwise, this heavy rain event will now shift into the southeast
half of the state today/tonight. Precipitation will be
along/north of a cold front that will stall in far southeast
Arkansas or northern Louisiana. It appears the south/east will get
another two to four inches of liquid, with a Flood Watch for that
part of the region. The watch farther north/west will expire this
Heavy rain may linger in the southeast Thursday morning, and that
may be followed by a brief lull. The front will then push back to
the north, with a new round of showers/isolated thunderstorms
across the north/west Thursday night. A Flood Watch may be
needed as rain could become excessive.
Temperatures through the near term will not vary much. Readings
will generally be below average during the daytime, and above
average at night.
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
Unfortunately, a similar overall pattern will be in place at the
start of the long term portion of the forecast which will provide
continued chances for rain and flooding across the state. Upper
ridge will be parked off the southeast Atlantic Coast with a large
trough tracking across the Rockies toward the Northern Plains.
Here locally, this will continue to provide southwesterly flow and
abundant moisture to the state. Any disturbance that traverses
the flow will help initiate showers and thunderstorms.
By Saturday, a more robust shortwave will round the base of the
trough and make its way northeast across the Southern Plains.
Temperatures at the surface will be in the 60s and 70s, with
dewpoints in the 60s for much of the area as well. 00z model
guidance suggests some instability in place across the state with
50kts of shear as well. Low level jet will likely ramp up across
eastern parts of the state during the afternoon hours. With the
persistent ridging in place across the southeast, the strength and
location of the approaching shortwave is in question and will
likely determine any true threat for severe weather on Saturday.
Stay tuned for updates, plenty of time for things to change.
A cold front will make its way through the state Saturday
night into Sunday, providing cooler, near normal temperatures
to the area. Dry weather may be in place from Sunday into the early
part of next week. But, it definitely doesn't look like a quiet (dry)
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 44 38 52 49 / 100 90 40 80
Camden AR 60 47 58 57 / 100 100 60 60
Harrison AR 34 34 50 46 / 50 50 40 90
Hot Springs AR 52 43 54 52 / 100 90 50 80
Little Rock AR 52 43 53 52 / 100 100 50 80
Monticello AR 62 48 60 59 / 100 100 80 40
Mount Ida AR 48 43 55 52 / 100 80 50 80
Mountain Home AR 36 34 51 47 / 60 60 40 90
Newport AR 47 39 52 51 / 100 90 40 80
Pine Bluff AR 57 45 56 54 / 100 100 70 60
Russellville AR 45 40 53 50 / 80 70 40 90
Searcy AR 50 41 52 51 / 100 90 50 80
Stuttgart AR 54 43 54 54 / 100 100 60 60
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Clark-Cleburne-Dallas-
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Short Term...46 / Long Term...67