Office: LZK
FXUS64 KLZK 100835
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
235 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
-Coldest air of the season expected Monday morning...resulting in
widespread freezing to hard-freezing conditions.
-Wind chills will drop to the lower teens Monday morning for
portions of northern Arkansas and the the higher terrain of the
Ozarks.
-Additional widespread freeze expected Monday night/Tuesday
morning.
-Mainly dry and warming conditions expected through the week
ahead, with temperatures moderating back to the 60s to 70s.
-Rain chances return to the forecast area by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Latest objective sfc analyses and sfc obs indicated broad and strong
sfc high pressure settling over the Cntrl to Nrn Plains, w/ robust
cold advection ushering in the coldest temps of the season for
Arkansas. Sfc obs acrs Nrn AR had fallen to the mid 20s as of 08Z,
w/ most of Cntrl to Srn AR also below freezing in the upper 20s to
low 30s.
Expect a chilly and blustery morning for most of Arkansas, with
gusty NWrly winds persisting thru early Mon aftn. Morning wind chill
values acrs Nrn AR wl reach the low teens, to possibly single
digits, but the good news is, this should be a one-morning instance,
w/ winds relaxing acrs the state by Tues. Mon aftn wl stay chilly,
w/ temps only climbing to the low to mid 40s for most locations.
Several sites may approach daily low-high temperatures to a few
degrees, w/ daily climatology indicating contending location records
(mainly over Cntrl to Srn AR) are in the low 40s.
Another overnight hard-freeze is expected Mon night into Tues mrng,
w/ area low-temps falling to the mid to upper 20s once again.
However, daily high and low temps wl begin to rebound quickly by
Tues aftn, as broad sfc high pressure drifts Ewrd, ushering in low-
lvl SWrly flow. Daily high temps wl trend upwards from the 60s on
Tues, to the mid 70s by Fri aftn, w/ mean Ern US troughing and Wrn
US ridging keeping upper-lvl subsidence in place over the Srn Cntrl
US. As such, dry and warming weather is expected thru the week,
before a possible pattern change brings rain chances back to the FA
by this weekend.
Several uncertainties remain given the extended timeframe, but
deterministic and ensemble guidance is indicative of Wrn US ridging
weakening by late this week, w/ a prominent trof digging Swrd
quickly out of the Pac-NW, and maneuvering Ewrd, ejecting over the
Srn Great Plains. Prominent moisture return is progged, w/ NAEFS
climatology suggesting near 90%ile precip water values extending
over much of the Srn Cntrl US and Gulf Coast. For now, moderate
chance PoPs are included in the fcst for much of the state next
weekend, but greater details on any hazardous weather potential
remain unclear.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025
VFR condns wl prevail thru the new TAF PD, w/ clear skies, and
gusty NWrly winds of 10-15 kts persisting thru Mon aftn.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 44 27 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 47 27 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 41 25 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 47 28 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 45 29 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 46 29 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 48 27 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 42 25 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 44 27 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 45 27 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 48 28 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 44 26 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 44 29 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ008-017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-
141-221-222-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
