Office: LZK
FXUS64 KLZK 010830
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
+ Winter weather expected starting this morning and lasting
into tonight across the majority of the forecast area.
+ Freezing rain will predominate across central, north central,
southern and western Arkansas. Snow and some sleet are
possible over northwest Arkansas.
+ A large part of the forecast area is under a winter weather
advisory from 6 AM today until 6 AM Tuesday.
+ Impacts will largely be minor but higher amounts of freezing
rain remain possible over central sections with higher impacts
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Overall the forecast appears to be in good shape with only some
minor tweaks needed. Biggest change this morning was to include
Ouachita and Calhoun counties in the winter weather advisory.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a definite increase in gulf
moisture but the majority of it is of the mid to high level variety.
Surface observations have already dropped in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Guidance continues to temperatures bottoming out in the lower
20s to lower 30s around sunrise.
Synoptic pattern has not deviated much over the past few models runs
with a sharp upper trough digging through the central Rockies at
this time. As this feature continues to dig, upper flow will turn to
the southwest allowing for deeper moisture to arrive as weak low
pressure develops and traverses the gulf coast. Warm air advection
off the deck and the aforementioned moisture will move over an air
mass that will struggle to get out of the 30s as surface high
pressure to our north keeps surface flow out of the N to NE.
Timing of the precip still looks reasonable, starting over the
southwest early this morning and spreading to the E/NE with time.
Upper trough will pass over the state late today as the surface low
to our south pulls out, taking whatever moisture remains with it.
Precipitation looks to be pretty much done by midnight in our CWA.
Highest QPF remains over the SE and tapers off to the NW where
impacts will be less. Biggest question mark with precipitation type
will be the amount of, or lack of low level moisture. Models
indicate the best moisture doesn't stick around very long. In
addition, once precipitation does initiate, wet bulbing could also
bring a little more sleet than what is currently being indicated.
On the positive side, QPF is overly low and while the overall
impacts will be minor, there remains areas where icing could be more
of a problem. Surface temperatures do warm above freezing during the
afternoon and road temperatures will likely stay just above freezing
with main travel impacts on elevated roadways.
Sub freezing temperatures are expected Monday night and any water on
area roadways could refreeze. Surface ridge overspreads the region
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the 40s. Southerly
winds return for Wednesday with highs climbing back into the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures get knocked back down on Thursday and Friday as another
upper trough approaches from the west. Overall it does not appear to
be as cold Thursday night and Friday when compared to today but
there will be at least another chance of winter weather across the
North and Northeast. Temperatures will continue to run well below
normal, even for early December.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
All terminals will begin with VFR flight category Sunday evening.
Wintry precipitation in the form of light freezing rain, light
sleet, and light snow will begin to move from west to east across
Arkansas on Monday morning and continue through the afternoon
hours before dissipating late in the period. The only terminal
anticipated to only experience light rain showers in KLLQ in the
far southeast. CIGS are expected to lower to as low as IFR flight
category from midday on Monday through the remainder of the
forecast period across the southeastern sites. The southeastern
sites of KPBF and KLLQ will additionally experience VSBY which
will lower to MVFR flight category and remain towards the end of
the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 35 25 42 25 / 40 40 0 0
Camden AR 36 25 44 25 / 60 60 0 0
Harrison AR 33 22 43 26 / 30 20 0 0
Hot Springs AR 35 23 45 25 / 50 40 0 0
Little Rock AR 34 27 43 26 / 60 50 0 0
Monticello AR 38 28 43 27 / 80 70 0 0
Mount Ida AR 37 23 48 26 / 50 30 0 0
Mountain Home AR 33 22 41 24 / 30 30 0 0
Newport AR 36 25 40 24 / 40 50 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 35 25 41 24 / 70 70 0 0
Russellville AR 37 25 46 26 / 40 30 0 0
Searcy AR 34 23 42 23 / 50 50 0 0
Stuttgart AR 35 25 40 26 / 60 60 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
Tuesday for ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>046-
052>056-062-063-066-067-123-130-137-138-140-141-223-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...77
