FXUS64 KLZK 121122 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
522 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
Some breezy winds this morning will gradually lessen by this
afternoon...with light and variable winds expected tonight. Expect
VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Fire danger concerns will continue to be the primary forecast concern
in the short term period...
A new...dry a cold front has moved through most of the state as of
early this Tue morning...with an increase in dewpts actually ongoing
behind the front. Some breezy NW winds are also ongoing...with temps
in the 40s to low 50s. The breezy winds will persist through the
morning hrs...but will gradually lessen by later this afternoon.
Dewpts...while increasing this morning...will drop again by later
this afternoon as mixing commences. Cooler temps expected this
afternoon...with highs only in the 40s and 50s. While this will
result in improved wild fire conditions through this afternoon
compared to Mon...the wild fire danger will remain at high levels
given min RH values still dropping below 30 percent. Have issued an
RFD or Grassland Fire Danger statement highlighting the enhanced
wild fire risk. Do not expected to Red Flag conditions today at
Dry conditions will continue through the rest of the short term
period...with no precip expected. Temps will warm slightly for Wed
as SRLY SFC flow returns. In fact...some stronger winds may be
seen...and may not see any significant moisture return. So...may need
to once again issue the RFD for Wed...but may also be close to Red
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
The extended forecast will start with a weak frontal boundary
possibly sagging to southern AR or into northern LA, while the upper
pattern has a broad upper low pressure trough over the region. A dry
forecast is expected with temperatures around normal central and
south, to below normal over northern AR.
Late Thursday night to Friday, another cold front is forecast to
move through AR, while some upper short wave energy moves across
northeast AR. GFS and Euro are showing light QPF in northeast AR,
and have included a slight chance of precipitation in far northeast
AR. While temperatures could be close to freezing, have only
included rain. This will be monitored in later forecasts, and with
uncertainty, may only see clouds due to limited moisture available.
Saturday will see a warm up as the surface high pressure moves east
of AR, and a south wind returns to AR. Also aloft some upper high
pressure ridging is seen in model runs. Highs will reach the 50s to
60s. Late Saturday to Sunday, models are indicating enough moisture
to advect into the region, while a better organized surface and
upper system move through AR. Slight chances to a chance of rain
will be forecast. Although, overall rain amounts are expected to
remain well below an inch, with the best chances in eastern AR. The
system quickly moves east Sunday night, with high pressure building
in, drying conditions out as temperatures cool a bit, but remain at
or above normal values due to a more upper zonal flow.