Office: LZK
FXUS64 KLZK 250820
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
320 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
There really aren't many changes to make in the short term
periods. Surface moisture will remain high, with patchy morning
fog. Daytime heating will interact with mesoscale boundaries over
the region, allowing for scattered, diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few strong storms are possible, with
winds the primary concern. With high precipitable water and low
level storm motion next to nothing, stronger storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, with localized flooding
issues possible. Temperatures will remain above average.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
An elongated upper ridge will be stretching from NRN Mexico north
into the central Plains at the start of the long term period...with
AR on the ERN periphery of this ridge. Latest guidance is also
showing a tropical system somewhere over the Gulf of
Mexico...lifting generally NWD over time.
There is now a bit better agreement within the med range model
guidance compared to previous days on the general evolution of this
tropical system...which has this system lifting NWD somewhere over
MS/AL sometime early next week. Even so...some uncertainty remains
on the eventual evolution of this system...and what influence it
will have on AR. For low...it looks like this system will remain
east of AR as the upper ridge to the west attempts to expand further
E/NE over time. As a result...have just some slightly increased POPs
across ERN sections of the state through the middle of next week.
Temps will be in the 80s to low 90s...with lows in the mid 60s to
low 70s.
By late in the forecast...the upper ridge looks to expand further
NE...with any influence of the tropical system exiting the region.
As a result...expect POPs to decrease...and temps to rise. Given
this trend...some of the warmest temps of the year so far may be
seen by late next week...with highs mainly in the upper 80s to upper
90s...and lows in the 70s.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 85 70 89 67 / 50 30 40 20
Camden AR 90 71 92 70 / 40 30 40 20
Harrison AR 83 67 87 65 / 50 30 30 10
Hot Springs AR 89 71 90 70 / 40 30 40 20
Little Rock AR 87 71 90 70 / 40 30 40 20
Monticello AR 88 72 89 70 / 40 30 40 30
Mount Ida AR 87 70 90 68 / 40 30 40 20
Mountain Home AR 84 68 87 65 / 50 30 30 10
Newport AR 86 72 89 70 / 50 30 30 10
Pine Bluff AR 87 71 90 70 / 40 30 40 20
Russellville AR 88 72 90 70 / 40 30 40 20
Searcy AR 87 69 89 69 / 50 30 40 20
Stuttgart AR 87 72 90 71 / 40 30 40 20
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...57 / Long Term...62
