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Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 031738
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025

 - Below average temperatures are anticipated for most of the next
   seven days.

 - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Surface ridging will hold on strong today, keeping clouds in place
through the morning under this stable airmass. However, this ridge
will begin to break down into the evening hours, as this new surface
low takes shape in the northern Gulf. Rain chances associated with
this low will begin to increase by the morning hours on Thursday,
with widespread rainfall continuing through the weekend.

The heaviest axis of this rainfall will depend on how far north
this surface low ends up tracking. Right now, it appears the
largest rainfall amounts will stay below I-20, with most locations
here seeing 1-2 inches of rain. Farther south near the I-85
corridor, 3+ inches of rain will be possible, as that is where the
stronger forcing will be along the low pressure. All this rain
will fall over a several day period, so the only impact expected
is additional relief from the ongoing drought.

By Sunday, a longwave trough will begin to drop south through the
Midwest, working into the region by Monday. This will finally push
the rest of the lingering rain to the east, with dry conditions
returning to the region. During the process, another shot of
reinforcing cold air will work in behind a cold front, with lows
Monday night dropping into the mid to upper-20s. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally remain below average for this time of
the year.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Skies will continue to clear over the next few hours, allowing for
VFR conditions through the night. However, clouds and rain chances
will increase closer to 04/12z, dropping most terminals into low-
end VFR/MVFR. However, at KTCL, the clouds should arrive closer to
04/06z, with IFR conditions possible through the morning hours.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will begin to increase by tomorrow morning, as another
system works its way in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of
rainfall are expected through Saturday, with some locations getting
north of 3 inches. These values will heavily depend on where the
heaviest rainfall banding sets up. No flooding is expected, and the
only impact across the region will be continued drought relief.
Otherwise, MinRH values will remain above 50%, and fire weather
concerns will remain limited through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  31  49  38 /   0   0  30  80
Anniston    50  33  49  40 /   0   0  40  90
Birmingham  49  35  49  40 /   0   0  50  90
Tuscaloosa  51  35  49  41 /   0  10  60  90
Calera      52  34  49  40 /   0   0  60  90
Auburn      52  36  48  42 /   0   0  60 100
Montgomery  51  36  47  43 /   0   0  80 100
Troy        52  37  48  43 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/



Office: MOB FXUS64 KMOB 031844 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1244 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Periods of heavy rain are expected Thursday through Saturday with the potential of localized flooding. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents on Friday for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Low clouds have finally cleared out of the area as of midday. The extended period of cloud cover this morning has delayed our warming with most areas still in the mid to upper 40s as of noon. We nudged down the previous forecast high temperatures a few degrees and most locations should top out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Upper level flow will transition to a more southwesterly flow over the next 24 hours and persist through the weekend. A series of embedded shortwaves will move across the region in this pattern, setting the stage for a very wet end of the week. The first shortwave will begin to impact us overnight tonight into Thursday. Rain will develop and spread in from west to east after midnight through Thursday in response to increasing southwest flow above the surface and strengthening isentropic lift. This combined with an impressive return of deep layer moisture (PWATs increasing to 1.5-1.75") will mean that periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected. After this first round of rain, we may see periods of less coverage and intensity in the rain Thursday night through Friday night, but details are uncertain and hinge on the timing of the subtle embedded shortwaves. Bottom line is that that high rain chances will persist. We will also be monitoring a surface low that is forecast to develop over SE LA late Friday night and move toward the Florida Panhandle Friday morning. As the low develops, a warm front will move north toward the coast. At this point, it appears that the best instability will remain offshore, thus limiting the threat for strong to severe storms along the immediate coast. However, we will continue to monitor this closely. There is no concern for severe weather further inland. By Saturday and Saturday night, it appears the best focus for additional rain will be along and southeast of the I-65 corridor as a stronger shortwave approaches from the west. Rain chances are expected to diminish in earnest from west to east by Sunday as a longwave upper level trough amplifies over the eastern half of the country. We should then see dry weather as we head into early next week. Rainfall totals of 2-4" are increasingly likely over parts of the area and we cannot rule out isolated totals as high as 6". Guidance continues to differ on exactly where the band of heaviest rain will occur, so there is some uncertainty there. However, the latest probabilistic guidance indicates the highest probabilities of seeing 4" of rain currently resides along and southeast of the I-65 corridor (30-50% chance). Did we mention it's going to be a cold rain? It definitely will be, especially on Thursday with highs only topping out in the upper 40s well inland to mid/upper 50s on the immediate coast. We may get temperatures to briefly reach the upper 60s to near 70 along the immediate coast on Friday with the warm front, but that will be short lived. High temperatures will likely be at or below normal for the weekend through early next week with lows in the 30s returning by Monday night. 34/JFB && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon. Clouds and lower ceilings will move into the area tonight with chances of rain increasing after midnight. IFR conditions can be expected for much of the area after 12Z as low ceilings and rain spread across the area. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along with building seas. A brief period of moderate onshore flow is likely over the Gulf waters Friday morning as a surface low and warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle. We cannot rule out a few strong storms over the open Gulf waters Friday morning. A general light offshore over the weekend will likely strengthen by Monday as a strong surface high builds in from the north. 34/JFB && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$