Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 142315
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
515 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- High pressure will keep rain chances low and promote a warming
trend through mid next week.
- Our next rain chances look to arrive at the end of next week
yet significant uncertainty remains in the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 955 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
High pressure will remain the dominant feature through early next
week. Today, with surface high pressure centered over Alabama,
clear skies and calm winds will prevail allowing temps to rise
into the mid to high 70s. The weekend will see only a slight
variation in the pattern as a weak low pressure moves through the
Great Lakes region with an attached weak front passing through
early next week. Ahead of the frontal passage, surface winds will
pick up from the SW with breezy conditions area wide both Saturday
and Sunday along the western periphery of high pressure. The SW
winds will effectively transport Gulf moisture into the region
with dew points steadily increasing through the weekend, nearing
60 degrees. High temperatures will be able to take advantage of
the additional WAA from the Gulf and rise into the mid to high 70s
each day with a few urban locations in southern Alabama having a
shot at hitting 80 degrees.
The front looks to enter the area late Monday into Tuesday
prompting low rain chances for areas north of Birmingham. While
the front looks to weaken significantly and stall over the TN
Valley, it looks to remain far enough north to dissuade any
prolonged rain chances for the local forecast area. Thus, highs
for early next week will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s with
minimal rain chances. Our attention will then switch to an
approaching low pressure system moving east off the Pacific
Coast. This low pressure system looks to be our next chance of
meaningful rain and potentially some storms however long range
models have yet to resolve timing and intensity of the system. As
such, blended guidance was maintained with medium chances for rain
reentering the forecast on Thursday. Ahead of this, broken to
overcast conditions look to prevail across the area as we maintain
cloud cover both from the stalled frontal boundary to our north
and from the approaching low pressure system to our west. Thanks
to southerly winds however this will not have an impact on our
temperatures which will remain in the 70s and low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR conditions are forecast tonight and Saturday. Generally calm
winds tonight will become southwest from ~15z Saturday, averaging
between 7-11 knots.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With no rain chances the next two days and RH above 30%, the most
impactful fire weather parameter will be winds. Through the
weekend winds will pick up from he WSW with sustained winds near
10 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH both Saturday and Sunday. Wind will
veer to the NNW Sunday afternoon and decrease in speed by Sunday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 42 76 53 75 / 0 0 10 0
Anniston 46 76 53 75 / 0 0 10 0
Birmingham 49 75 56 75 / 0 0 10 0
Tuscaloosa 48 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 46 78 53 78 / 0 0 10 0
Auburn 46 75 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 44 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
Troy 43 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAD
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 142353
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
553 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
- Dense fog will develop after midnight across the southern
portion of the area, especially near the coast and over Mobile
Bay and Mississippi Sound. Another round of fog, potentially
dense fog, is possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
A vast majority of the models, including all of the Convective
Allowing Models (CAMs) are showing dense fog development late
tonight into Saturday. While there are slight differences in the
location of the fog, a general consensus is along and south of
U.S. Highway 84. We will need to monitor the development through
the overnight hours to determine if the Dense Fog Advisory needs
to be expanded in coverage.
A dry forecast period will otherwise persist through noon Thursday
as a dry northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal over the
weekend though early next week, followed by upper ridging building
over the region. An ejecting upper low pressure area over the
California/Mexico border Tuesday evolves into an upper trough over
the southern Rockies, and lifts northeastward over the southern
Great Plains and Mid-Lower Mississippi regions Thursday afternoon
into Friday. There remains some timing and placement differences
between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS being about 6-12 hours
faster, as the ECMWF reforms an upper closed low over the
southerly plains essentially slowing down the trough. Regardless,
did not make any adjustments to the National Blend of Models
(NBM) at this time and we still expect a chance for showers and
storms to move across the forecast area late Thursday through
Friday.
Both high and low temperatures will continue to trend higher over
the weekend through the middle of next week, with middle to upper
70s on Saturday, and middle 70s to lower 80s Sunday through
Thursday. Lows tonight in the middle 40s to lower 50s will become
well above normal over the weekend through next week, and could
be as high as 12 to 17 degrees above normal Tuesday night through
Thursday night due to more established southerly wind flow.
Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through mid week in
this pattern. The rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the
risk may briefly increase to near MODERATE levels by late Sunday
afternoon across the Florida panhandle beaches. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR conditions will generally persist until midnight. Ceilings
and visibilities will quickly fall after midnight, especially near
the coast. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to
develop at the terminals after midnight as dense fog develops
across the southern half of the area. IFR to VLIFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected in spots, especially across coastal
counties, by the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. Fog will gradually
lift 2-3 hours after daybreak and VFR conditions will prevail by
mid-morning. Winds become calm overnight. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Dense fog development is expected late tonight into Saturday for
Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. Dense fog may advect further
south into a small portion of the Coastal Alabama offshore zone.
Light and variable winds will occur through Saturday morning
becoming light southerly to southwesterly Saturday afternoon. A
light southwesterly flow Saturday night shifts westerly Sunday
into Monday and then back to a light southerly to southwesterly
flow Monday afternoon into midweek. Southerly flow increases to
near advisory levels late in the week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 52 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 55 74 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 57 73 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 49 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 48 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 44 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ052-053-
055-056-059-060-261>266.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201-203-
205.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ075-076-
078-079.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Saturday for
GMZ630>632.
&&
$$
