Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 070823
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
223 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- Medium to high chances of dense fog developing overnight.
- Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below
average, with an extended period of below freezing nights
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
Today through Monday
A low cloud deck has overspread Central Alabama over the past
several hours, which has caused temperatures to climb back into the
40s in several areas after having been in the 30s under clear skies.
Patchy fog is also developing but should dissipate by a couple hours
after sunrise. The low clouds and light winds should hinder
development in many areas moreso than expected several hours ago.
This low stratus is likely to hang around much of the day today,
with overcast skies and highs in the 50s.
Light rain or drizzle is possible across the area from late morning
into the afternoon hours. After nightfall, rain chances increase
dramatically as a system pushes in from the west. Rain will end by
daybreak Monday as a cold front sweeps through. Temperatures will be
a few degrees lower Monday afternoon, with cloud cover clearing out
by the late morning or afternoon.
Tuesday through Saturday
Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday across Central
Alabama. Monday night/Tuesday morning is still on track to be a cold
one, with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s across most areas. Highs
Thursday are likely to be in the 60s ahead of the next cold front,
which will bring a return of rain chances Thursday into Friday.
Behind the front, temperatures currently look very cold heading into
next weekend, with widespread lows in the 20s Friday night and
Saturday night. Some areas may remain in the 30s all day Saturday.
While decent model agreement is in place for some kind of cold
blast, just how is still subject to change in subsequent forecast
updates.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
A low cloud deck has brought IFR cigs to all terminals as it has
moved northward across Central Alabama. Cigs should deteriorate to
LIFR at most terminals by the early morning hours. Additionally, fog
is still somewhat likely during the overnight hours, so have
maintained lowered vis at all sites and IFR vis at most. Should see
IFR cigs hang around until roughly midday before improving to MVFR.
Light drizzle may occur at times during the morning and afternoon.
Rain will move in from Mississippi west to east across the area
after 0z, with MVFR cigs and occasional low vis expected.
12
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Light rain returns to the area tonight. MinRH values will remain
above 50% through Monday, and above 40% Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next rain chance comes Thursday night. Fire weather concerns remain
limited through the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 54 37 50 26 / 20 60 0 0
Anniston 56 40 51 29 / 20 60 0 0
Birmingham 55 41 50 30 / 20 60 0 0
Tuscaloosa 58 41 53 30 / 20 60 0 0
Calera 58 41 53 29 / 20 60 0 0
Auburn 56 45 54 34 / 20 70 10 0
Montgomery 58 44 54 31 / 20 60 0 0
Troy 58 45 55 32 / 30 70 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 070704
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Patchy fog is possible across our interior-most counties in
south Alabama and south Mississippi over the next few hours,
especially north of Highway 84.
- Additional rounds of light to moderate rain will occur today
across coastal counties in Alabama/Florida and south-central
Alabama, generally east of I-65.
- A strong cold front sweeps across the area Sunday night into
early Monday, which will lead to gusty winds area-wide on
Monday. Temperatures fall below freezing for locations
generally north of I-10 by sunrise on Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
We have somewhat of a break in the rain at this hour as the band of
rain showers remains anchored over the Gulf at the moment. While
the rain may have briefly stopped, our attention turns to the
potential for fog over the next few hours. Probabilistic guidance
continues to indicate that our far interior counties in south
Alabama/Mississippi, mainly north of the Highway 84 corridor, have
the best chance for dense fog. While there are currently no
observations of 1/4 mile or less, we can see the fog settling into
northern Clarke County (AL) via webcams. The probabilistic
guidance indicates that the fog should be short-lived and will
shift further north and northwest of our area by 4-5am. For now,
we are holding off on an advisory, but will continue to monitor
observations, satellite imagery, and webcams.
The rain shield should begin to build back into the area by 9-10am
as a subtle mid-level impulse slides through the area. The best
chances for rain reside across our coastal counties and parts of
south-central Alabama, generally east of I-65. We will likely see
another brief period where we dry out in the early evening hours
before one last shot for showers ahead of the cold front. A potent
cold front will sweep across the area overnight Sunday into early
Monday. In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall into the
40s across much of the area (low 50s at the beaches) by sunrise on
Monday. Highs on both Monday will struggle to get into the mid to
upper 50s with breezy conditions throughout the day. Overnight low
temperatures will plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s north of I-10
with mid to upper 30s near the coastline by sunrise on Tuesday.
Locations north of Highway 84 can expect around 5 hours of below
freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning.
Wednesday and Thursday will generally be transition days with mild
temperatures and a dry forecast. Another potent front will likely
pivot into the area late in the week with the potential for even
colder temperatures in its wake. We could see a few nights with
temperatures in the 20s for most of the area (hovering around
freezing at the beaches) if this pattern pans out.
Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday in the
current pattern. 07/mb
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Ceilings will continue to fall overnight. MVFR to IFR ceilings
persist at this hour and will fall to LIFR in the pre-dawn hours.
Visibilities will likely fall into the MVFR to IFR categories
around sunrise at the terminals. Patchy fog is possible further
inland across south Alabama and south Mississippi by sunrise. Rain
showers are expected through the day on Sunday ahead of a strong
cold front. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Showers will persist through early Monday morning ahead of a strong
cold front. Northerly winds will increase to advisory levels on
Monday with conditions subsiding by Monday night. Another round of
strong northerly winds are expected by next weekend. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 49 58 34 / 30 70 0 0
Pensacola 63 52 59 39 / 50 70 10 0
Destin 63 53 61 41 / 70 70 10 0
Evergreen 61 44 58 29 / 30 70 0 0
Waynesboro 61 44 55 29 / 20 70 0 0
Camden 59 42 54 28 / 20 70 0 0
Crestview 60 48 59 32 / 50 70 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
night for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
