Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 270501
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1101 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1101 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- Clear and colder conditions expected on Thanksgiving Day.
- A rainy pattern should take hold for Saturday night through
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Overnight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1101 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
Cold advection and dry conditions will continue through Friday
with morning lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. An
extended period of enhanced rain chances should begin Saturday
night and continue through Tuesday as west-southwesterly flow
becomes established at 500 mb across the southern CONUS. A frontal
passage will bring a return to cool and dry conditions for
Wednesday.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with north to
northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots and gusts up to 15 knots.
87/Grantham
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry airmass will overspread the region on Thursday with
afternoon RH values falling to 25-30 percent. Wind speeds should
fall just short of Reg Flag criteria. Lighter winds are expected
for Friday and Saturday, and RH values may drop as low as 20
percent in the afternoon in our southeastern counties.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 31 51 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
Anniston 32 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 33 52 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 34 55 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 32 54 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
Auburn 36 53 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 35 56 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
Troy 35 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...87/Grantham
AVIATION...87/Grantham
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 270501
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1101 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
...New FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
- Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft across portions of the marine area through Friday
morning, with another possible period from Friday night into
Saturday morning.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches Saturday, then a high risk is anticipated for
Saturday night and Sunday.
- Low relative humidity values on Thursday and Friday along with
the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire
danger and will be monitored.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Dry conditions are expected through Saturday with cool temperatures
through Friday followed by more seasonable values for Saturday. A
large upper trof evolves over the central states Friday night into
Saturday then ejects off across the interior eastern states
through Sunday night. An associated surface low lifts from the
central Plains to across the Great Lakes region and brings a cold
front through the forecast area on Sunday. There appears to be a
modest uptick in shear Saturday night as a series of shortwaves
progress across the area ahead of the frontal passage, but
instability for the most part looks to remain limited. Shear
values look low for Sunday and instability looks to remain
limited, so am not anticipating strong storm development at this
time. Will have mainly slight chance to good chance pops Saturday
night with chance to likely pops for Sunday which taper off to
slight chance pops Sunday night.
Another large upper trof meanwhile swings into the western half
of the CONUS then looks to progress across the eastern states
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, though with a fair amount of
uncertainty on the timing and evolution of this feature. A surface
low is anticipated to develop over the northwestern Gulf on
Monday. Depending on how the upper pattern plays out, the surface
low could progress across the southern portion of the forecast
area Monday night or pass across the marine area and eventually
move across the Florida peninsula Tuesday morning. Will continue
to monitor. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Monday with
likely pops for Monday night. Rain chances decrease to mostly
slight chance by Tuesday afternoon then dry conditions are
expected for Wednesday.
Highs on Thanksgiving range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to
around 60 closer to the coast, then lows Thanksgiving night range
from around 30 well inland to near 40 at the immediate coast.
Similarly cool temperatures are expected for Friday and Friday
night. Highs on Saturday range from near 60 well inland to the mid
60s near the coast, and lows Saturday night range from the lower
40s well inland to the mid/upper 50s at the coast. Highs on Sunday
range from the lower/mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the
coast, and lows Sunday night range from the upper 30s well inland
to around 50 at the coast. Highs on Monday and Tuesday mostly
range from the lower/mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near
the coast with similar values for Wednesday. Lows Monday night
tend to range from around 40 well inland to around 50 at the
coast, then Tuesday night will range from around 30 well inland to
around 40 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Friday night with a moderate risk for Saturday. A high
risk of rip currents follows for Saturday night and Sunday, then a
moderate risk is expected for Sunday night into Monday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. Northwest
to north winds 5-10 knots increase to 10-15 knots on Thursday then
diminish Thursday evening. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish somewhat on Thursday.
The offshore flow strengthens Thursday night mainly over the open
Gulf waters, diminishes on Friday, then a moderate to strong
easterly flow develops Friday night. A light to moderate
southeasterly flow develops on Saturday then switches to the north
Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for Mobile Bay and the MS Sound until 8 am
Thursday, and for the near shore waters until 10 am Thursday. The
Small Craft Advisory continues for the 20-60 nm portion through
Friday morning, with a Small Craft Advisory also meanwhile in
effect for the near shore waters from 9 pm Thursday until 9 am
Friday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Friday night into
Saturday morning will need to be monitored for a possible Small
Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters. /29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% for much of the
area on Thursday, and also on Friday mainly over south central
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. At this time, the
Significant Fire Potential rating is low or less for both days.
The 20 ft wind speeds will be less than 15/16 mph for the most
part, but could reach these values over the coastal counties and
will need to monitor. Will mention the potential for elevated fire
danger due to low relative humidity and potentially breezy winds. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 39 60 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 44 60 41 58 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 45 62 41 58 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 35 60 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 35 57 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 34 55 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 37 60 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday for
GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
