Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 021136
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
536 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
- Widespread light rain this morning will gradually end from west
to east by midday. Cold, blustery, and cloudy conditions will
follow with temperatures holding steady or falling through this
afternoon as a cold front moves across the area.
- Cold temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s are forecast
overnight, but could be warmer than expected if low clouds
remain in place.
- Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
upcoming week with an additional opportunity for soaking rains
Thursday night through Friday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
Today through Tonight:
Central Alabama is literally "in a wedge" this morning ahead of
the approaching cold front that will usher in a modified arctic
airmass into the region during the day today. The CAD wedge in
Georgia is holding on with pressure gradient winds now ramping up,
with METARs observing wind gusts between 15 and 20 knots from the
east and southeast across eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
Strong isentropic lift will continue to produce widespread low
clouds and rain through the morning, with heaviest amounts still
expected along the I-85 corridor. The surface low just south of
Pensacola will continue to move inland across southwest Georgia by
sunrise this morning, with the cold front quickly following in its
wake. As dry air quickly filters in from the west and northwest,
rain will quickly end from west to east between 7am and noon with
low clouds hanging on all day. Highs for the day are occurring as
we speak for a majority of locations, as much colder air behind
the front will move southeastward with winds gusting between 15
and 25mph at times. By this afternoon, we'll likely be in the mid
to upper 30s in Haleyville and Hamilton, while Montgomery will be
dropping into the mid 40s. No doubt about it, we're looking at a
very cold and raw day across Central Alabama.
Looking into the forecast for tonight, we could end up having a
big forecast challenge on our hands. We're getting into that time
of the year where unexpected post-frontal stratus development
processes can absolutely cause a big forecast bust. The current
GOES-19 Night Fog product depicts a very pronounced layer of low
stratus clouds that stretch all the way back into far eastern
Oklahoma. Some of those clouds will be able to mix out during the
day today on the western fringe, but farther to the east
confidence is high that the low stratus will hold together all day
across much of Mississippi and all of Alabama. I'm starting to
see some high-res guidance trends as well as HREF probabilities
pointing toward a higher chance of lingering low stratus after
midnight. Forecast soundings from some of the high-res members
are presenting a very shallow layer of moisture essentially
trapped underneath the inversion and very dry air moving in
aloft. Other members finally mix the clouds out during the evening
hours, but are hinting at the potential for patchy freezing fog
development due to plenty of moisture remaining at the surface,
winds becoming calm, and temperatures quickly falling toward the
dewpoint. If guidance trends during the day shift continue to
indicate low stratus hanging around longer tonight, temperatures
will need to be greatly modified upward and sky cover forecast
increased as well. For now I'm trending in that direction, but not
going all-in just yet. Lows have been adjusted upward into the mid
20s across the Highway 278 corridor to just below freezing across
the far southeast.
Wednesday through this Weekend:
Wednesday will be a dry and mostly calm day with temperatures
around normal for early December. Highs are forecast in the 50s
and lows in the 30s as upper level flow temporarily becomes zonal
over the Deep South. By Thursday, southwesterly flow at 500mb
returns as yet another disturbance heads our way from Mexico and
southern Texas. It appears that the heaviest precipitation should
stay to our south most of the day on Thursday, with 700mb flow
remaining westerly and drier air present aloft across the northern
half of the state. However, we'll probably see light radar returns
showing up along the I-20 corridor with some of that eventually
reaching the ground at times. No winter precip is expected, as
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures
will remain on the chilly side due to the widespread clouds
Thursday afternoon in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
In what could be a very similar setup to what is currently ongoing
outside our window this morning, guidance is indicating yet
another stratiform/isentropic lift rain event across much of the
CWA on Friday. As another surface low develops near or just south
of Mobile Bay Friday afternoon, widespread rain would develop and
move northeastward, with an additional chance for 1 to 2 inches
collecting in the bucket through Friday night across the southern
and southeastern half of Central Alabama. Long-range guidance
trends are indicating a longwave trough developing over much of
the eastern CONUS by the weekend, but disagreement remains in
terms of the depth and strength of an approaching shortwave within
northwest flow aloft. A deeper trough axis would lead to
additional southern stream involvement, while a more subtle wave
would keep the area mostly dry. Temperatures will remain below
normal as we approach early next week.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
Poor aviation conditions are likely to persist through much of
this TAF cycle. -RA will clear all terminals in the next few
hours with IFR/LIFR ceilings left through the afternoon hours.
MVFR returns this evening. Currently have VFR conditions by 06-08Z
Wednesday. However, confidence is not too high in this outcome.
There is a medium chance of MVFR ceilings lingering through the
night. Otherwise, a north-northwest wind will be breezy at times
with gusts from 15-20 knots through this afternoon.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of soaking rainfall is expected to move across
Central Alabama this morning. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on
average is anticipated across the southeast half of Central
Alabama. Dry weather returns by midday Tuesday through Wednesday
with MinRHs ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s once again by
Wednesday afternoon. Additional rain chances return for Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 46 26 52 31 / 40 0 0 10
Anniston 49 26 54 34 / 50 0 0 0
Birmingham 46 27 52 35 / 30 0 0 10
Tuscaloosa 44 28 54 37 / 20 0 0 10
Calera 47 27 56 35 / 30 0 0 10
Auburn 54 31 54 38 / 50 0 0 0
Montgomery 54 31 53 36 / 30 0 0 10
Troy 55 31 55 37 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...95/Castillo
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 021131
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
- Strong flow will likely create hazardous conditions for small
craft over the open Gulf waters through mid afternoon today.
- A high rip current risk remains in effect the beaches of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
A surface low passes just south of the forecast area overnight
before continuing into the central Florida panhandle early Tuesday
morning. A large rain shield over much of the area is starting to
break up over southeastern Mississippi, and the precipitation is
expected to end from west to east overnight into early Tuesday
morning as the surface low exits to the east. Current indications
are that a warm front extending eastward from the surface low will
mostly likely not be able to lift into the western Florida
panhandle before the system exits to the east, thus the potential
for strong storms looks low. Other than a small chance for rain
over the eastern fringe of the area Tuesday morning, dry
conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.
A positively tilted upper trof which extends from the north
central states to near the 4 Corners region becomes increasingly
elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern portion
continues across the northeast states. The remainder of the upper
trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to across the
southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. A surface low is
anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf Wednesday night
into Thursday, then move across the marine portion of the forecast
area mainly during the day on Friday. Will need to closely monitor
the trajectory of the surface low, as there is the potential for
this feature to move across the coastal portions of the forecast
area which would then portend a risk of strong storm development.
Will have likely to categorical pops for both Thursday and Friday.
The upper trof evolves into a large and broad upper trof which
gradually progresses into the eastern states through Sunday with a
pair of vigorous embedded systems meanwhile traversing the upper
trof pattern. There is a lot of uncertainty with how this pattern
will play out, though at this point a surface low is anticipated
to develop over the Plains on Saturday and take an unusual path
into the southeast states on Sunday. Have gone with chance pops
for Saturday then dry conditions are expected to develop Saturday
night into Sunday and continue into Monday. The coldest night of
the forecast period looks to be Tuesday night when lows range from
the mid/upper 20s well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast.
The remainder of the forecast period will have lows near
seasonable values but a bit on the cool side. Highs on Wednesday
through Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal and
generally in the 50s except for near 60 at the coast. Daytime
highs then gradually moderate to the lower/mid 60s on Saturday
then dip to the mid 50s to lower 60s for Monday. A high risk of
rip currents is in effect Tuesday with a moderate risk for Tuesday
night. A low risk follows for Wednesday and Thursday then a
moderate risk is expected for Friday. A low risk follows for
Saturday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
IFR to LIFR ceilings remain prevalent across the area this morning
in the wake of a cold front. Expect these ceilings to persist
through late morning before improving back to MVFR for the
afternoon, perhaps improving back to VFR at least temporarily
during the late afternoon into early evening hours. An MVFR to IFR
ceiling may return across the region late tonight. Winds will be
breezy today out of the north at around 5 to 10 knots gusting
upwards of 20 knots at times. Winds relax tonight to around 5
knots across the area. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Moderate to strong easterly winds switch to the northwest overnight
then gradually diminishes to a light to moderate northerly flow
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will mention Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution overnight for the bays and sounds in case winds
reach 15-20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the open
Gulf waters until 3 pm Tuesday, though could probably be canceled
earlier by midday for the near shore waters. Will leave to the
next shift to reassess. An easterly flow develops Wednesday night
into Thursday then switches to the north on Friday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 58 32 58 44 / 10 0 0 30
Pensacola 61 37 58 48 / 10 0 0 20
Destin 66 39 60 48 / 10 0 0 10
Evergreen 58 29 60 38 / 10 0 0 20
Waynesboro 49 26 56 38 / 10 0 0 30
Camden 53 27 54 35 / 10 0 0 10
Crestview 62 31 60 39 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
