Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 151725
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- Medium to high (40-80%) chances of showers and storms this
weekend, with the highest chances between midnight Saturday
night and 1 PM on Sunday.
- Probabilities for any severe storms remain low at this time
due to weak instability, but will be monitored.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
Through Friday Night
A ridge axis remains nearby and will continue the dry, unseasonably
warm conditions across Central Alabama. The ridge axis will begin to
shift eastward on Thursday in response to an ejecting longwave
trough over the Four Corners region. As the pattern shifts, expect
generally sunny conditions with better chances of clouds on Friday
as a shortwave lifts across the Midsouth region. There will be some
scattered high level clouds on Thursday as the easterly increases,
but will only have limited affects on the temperatures. Temperatures
will reach the 80s each day with seasonably cool conditions at night.
Saturday Through Tuesday
The ridge axis will be well situated to our east by Saturday and
south to southeasterly low to mid-level flow will develop across
Central Alabama as the trough deepens over the Plains. This should
initiate gradual moisture advection in advance of an approaching
cold front which will be situated near the Mississippi River around
Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe.
A severe threat will exist across the Midsouth region Saturday
afternoon, weak low-level lapse rates and meager instability should
limit the severe threat by the time the rain and storms reach our
forecast area overnight Saturday night into the morning hours of
Sunday. Nonetheless, a level 1 out of 5 severe risk may be warranted
as we get closer and are able to better assess the details. No need
to initiate messaging for that potential risk at this point.
Otherwise, the entire area should receive beneficial rainfall, but
amounts will be far from drought-busting. There are medium chances
of exceeding one inch of rainfall across the northern and
northwestern portions of the area while forecast amounts are less
than an inch elsewhere, largely due to the quick passage of the
front. We could potentially see a brief increase in convection in
the southeast late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon
that could increase rainfall totals in this area as well.
Essentially resulting in the areas in worst drought, seeing the
least rain.
Cooler and dry conditions are set to return on Monday as
northwesterly flow develops behind the frontal passage. Many
locations across the northern half of the area will see lows in the
40s Monday morning. Models are indicating the development of another
large ridge, becoming the dominant feature to maintain dry
conditions heading into next week.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR conditions with light winds for the period. Winds will shift to
more of a northeasterly after 15z Thursday.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday.
Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon
through Thursday before a moistening trend begins on Friday. 20 foot
winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains
highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
Anniston 54 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 58 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
Auburn 57 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 57 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
Troy 56 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 151843
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
143 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
- Dry conditions will persist through Friday, with increasing
rain chances this weekend.
- The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase on
Friday, with a high risk on Saturday and Sunday. Before heading
to beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted
beach warning flags.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
The strong upper level ridge over the area causing the hot and dry
conditions will slowly move east of the area through the end of
the week. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will shift off the east
coast by Saturday allowing deep layer moisture levels to gradually
increase as a southerly flow develops. Rain chances increase late
Saturday into Sunday as an upper trough moves east across the
plains and sends a cold front toward the area. The GFS has backed
off on the strength of the trough and now stalls the front across
central Alabama and Sunday in zonal upper flow. A stronger trough
Tuesday into Wednesday finally pushes the front through the area.
The Euro maintains a stronger trough and sends the front through
Sunday afternoon/evening. The frontal timing differences lead to
a wide range in POPs and temps between the models for this weekend
into early next week. Due to the uncertainty, will maintain the
NBM blend for now and see if better agreement develops on later
runs. High temps remain above normal through Saturday and becomes
uncertain after due to the frontal timing differences. Low temps
will gradually increase through the week as moisture levels
increase. /13
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
A light mainly southeasterly flow develops Thursday afternoon,
with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with
building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow to start
the weekend will shift southerly and then southwesterly going
into Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest,
and then northerly Sunday evening as the cold front passes
through the area. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 61 87 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 65 86 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 67 85 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 57 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 57 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 58 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 57 89 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
