Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 012321
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
521 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
- Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
expected across the southeast half of central Alabama through
Tuesday. Highest rainfall amounts are expected along the I-85
corridor.
- Widespread freezing temperatures in the low to mid 20s will
return Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A few upper
teens will likely be observed within the coldest valleys.
- Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
upcoming week with an additional opportunity for soaking rains
Thursday night through Friday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
Overall forecast is on track with temperatures and PoPs, so
changes will be minimal for the night. May wind up needing to
raise temperatures another degree or two in the north, but will
focus on the trends of the hourlies through the night. Bottom
line, the precipitation should move out before we even flirt with
32 degrees in the north/northwest.
16
Previous discussion:
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
Today through Tuesday night:
A northern stream mid and upper-level trough will move eastward
across the Central CONUS tonight, while a weaker southern stream
disturbance moves along the Gulf Coast. The latter disturbance
will interact with a stalled frontal boundary over the northern
Gulf, causing weak cyclogenesis and a surface low lifting
northeastward across the Florida Panhandle and South Georgia.
While it's taken a bit longer to saturate the column this
afternoon, strong isentropic lift will eventually result in
widespread light to moderate stratiform rain overspreading the
area by this evening. There initially will be two areas of rain,
one across the northwest counties with the northern stream system,
and another across the southeast counties with the southern stream
system, with the area in between eventually filling in. Heaviest
rainfall amounts will be across the southeast counties near the
deformation zone on the northwest side of the surface low and
where the PWATs will be highest. The right entrance region of an
upper-level jet streak will also be present. Not expecting any
flooding concerns outside of very poor drainage areas, just very
beneficial rainfall. Temperatures will be steady/rising slightly
overnight, not following a typical diurnal curve, then begin to
drop across the northwest as the cold front moves in.
Dry air aloft will cause precip to taper off into light
rain/drizzle tomorrow morning. Did slow down the exit of PoPs, but
moisture aloft will be exiting before the colder air arrives. Low
stratus/stratocumulus should linger for much of the day and
probably longer than models indicate, as is typical this time of
year. With strong northwest winds/cold air advection, it will be a
raw day with temperatures falling some in the afternoon, again
not following a typical diurnal curve. Winds become light
overnight, setting up good radiational cooling unless the low
clouds linger. Lows will drop well into the 20s, colder than it
has been in the last couple weeks.
Wednesday through Sunday:
Wednesday looks like the only day we will see a lot of sunshine
this week, though there may still be some cirrus clouds. Another
positively tilted trough will set up from the Great Lakes to the
Desert Southwest, with another southern stream disturbance along
the Gulf Coast. This will set up another isentropic lift
stratiform rain setup by Thursday, though there is some
uncertainty regarding how far north the rain will extend. Warm air
advection early Thursday morning is expected to be strong enough
to result in only liquid precipitation at onset. The shortwave
over the southwest CONUS will eventually move eastward while a
wave of low pressure forms in the Gulf, resulting in either
stratiform rain resuming or expanding in coverage depending on
whether a break in the rain occurs. Once again beneficial rain is
expected with the highest rain chances and amounts in the
southeast half of Central Alabama. Another shortwave this time in
northwest flow aloft may move through in the Sunday night/Sunday
timeframe, but rain chances remain low (10-20%). Temperatures will
remain below normal.
32/JDavis
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
Widespread steady light to moderate rain will overspread the
area, along with IFR to LIFR cigs after 2 to 4z. Until then, we
will remain in two bands, one in the south with higher clouds and
the other in the northwest with MVFR clouds. Rain ends from west
to east tomorrow morning, but expect IFR cigs to linger through at
least midday, with MVFR through the rest of the period. Behind a
cold front, winds tomorrow will become northwesterly at 10 to 12
kts, with gusts up to 20 kts at times in the afternoon.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of soaking rainfall is expected to move across
Central Alabama this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. 1 to
2 inches of rainfall on average is anticipated across the
southeast half of Central Alabama. Dry weather returns by midday
Tuesday through Wednesday with MinRHs ranging from the mid 30s to
lower 40s once again by Wednesday afternoon. Additional rain
chances return for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 42 45 21 52 / 100 30 0 0
Anniston 45 47 24 53 / 100 40 0 0
Birmingham 41 44 25 52 / 100 30 0 0
Tuscaloosa 41 43 25 54 / 100 20 0 0
Calera 43 46 25 55 / 100 30 0 0
Auburn 50 53 29 53 / 100 50 0 0
Montgomery 50 54 28 54 / 100 40 0 0
Troy 53 55 29 55 / 100 40 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 020455
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Strong flow will likely create hazardous conditions for small
craft over the open Gulf waters through mid afternoon on
Tuesday.
- A high rip current risk remains in effect the beaches of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
A surface low passes just south of the forecast area overnight
before continuing into the central Florida panhandle early Tuesday
morning. A large rain shield over much of the area is starting to
break up over southeastern Mississippi, and the precipitation is
expected to end from west to east overnight into early Tuesday
morning as the surface low exits to the east. Current indications
are that a warm front extending eastward from the surface low will
mostly likely not be able to lift into the western Florida
panhandle before the system exits to the east, thus the potential
for strong storms looks low. Other than a small chance for rain
over the eastern fringe of the area Tuesday morning, dry
conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.
A positively tilted upper trof which extends from the north
central states to near the 4 Corners region becomes increasingly
elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern portion
continues across the northeast states. The remainder of the upper
trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to across the
southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. A surface low is
anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf Wednesday night
into Thursday, then move across the marine portion of the forecast
area mainly during the day on Friday. Will need to closely monitor
the trajectory of the surface low, as there is the potential for
this feature to move across the coastal portions of the forecast
area which would then portend a risk of strong storm development.
Will have likely to categorical pops for both Thursday and Friday.
The upper trof evolves into a large and broad upper trof which
gradually progresses into the eastern states through Sunday with a
pair of vigorous embedded systems meanwhile traversing the upper
trof pattern. There is a lot of uncertainty with how this pattern
will play out, though at this point a surface low is anticipated
to develop over the Plains on Saturday and take an unusual path
into the southeast states on Sunday. Have gone with chance pops
for Saturday then dry conditions are expected to develop Saturday
night into Sunday and continue into Monday. The coldest night of
the forecast period looks to be Tuesday night when lows range from
the mid/upper 20s well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast.
The remainder of the forecast period will have lows near
seasonable values but a bit on the cool side. Highs on Wednesday
through Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal and
generally in the 50s except for near 60 at the coast. Daytime
highs then gradually moderate to the lower/mid 60s on Saturday
then dip to the mid 50s to lower 60s for Monday. A high risk of
rip currents is in effect Tuesday with a moderate risk for Tuesday
night. A low risk follows for Wednesday and Thursday then a
moderate risk is expected for Friday. A low risk follows for
Saturday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
A large area of rain ends from west to east overnight into early
Tuesday morning. A mix of mostly MVFR/IFR conditions become
IFR/LIFR overnight then improve to MVFR/IFR Tuesday morning.
Conditions improve to VFR from west to east Tuesday afternoon into
the early evening hours. Winds become northwesterly 5-10 knots
overnight and increase to 10-15 knots on Tuesday. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Moderate to strong easterly winds switch to the northwest overnight
then gradually diminishes to a light to moderate northerly flow
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will mention Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution overnight for the bays and sounds in case winds
reach 15-20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the open
Gulf waters until 3 pm Tuesday, though could probably be canceled
earlier by midday for the near shore waters. Will leave to the
next shift to reassess. An easterly flow develops Wednesday night
into Thursday then switches to the north on Friday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 47 58 32 58 / 90 10 0 0
Pensacola 54 61 37 58 / 100 10 0 0
Destin 57 66 39 60 / 100 20 0 0
Evergreen 46 58 29 60 / 100 20 0 0
Waynesboro 39 49 26 56 / 90 10 0 0
Camden 40 53 27 54 / 100 20 0 0
Crestview 52 62 31 60 / 100 20 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
