Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 141853
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
153 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- Medium to high (40-70%) chances of showers and storms this
weekend, with the highest chances between midnight Saturday
night and noon on Sunday.
- Probabilities for any severe storms remain low at this time
due to weak instability, but will be monitored.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
Through Friday night:
A 595 decameter mid-level anticyclone is currently centered over
the ArkLaTex. This will weaken and devolve into a ridge axis as it
drifts eastward to Alabama by Friday. High pressure over the
eastern CONUS will maintain an easterly component to the low-level
flow Thursday and Friday. This will keep high temperatures from
being as hot as they could otherwise be, but they will still be
around 8 degrees above normal. Lows will remain near normal,
however, due to the dry air mass. A moisture starved shortwave
lifts northeast across the area Friday, while surface winds will
become southerly, causing moisture to begin to increase.
Saturday through Monday:
A longwave trough will move eastward across the central CONUS
Sunday, reaching the eastern CONUS by Sunday. An associated cold
front will move into Central Alabama on Sunday. This results in
the first system of the fall season that we will have to monitor
for any severe weather potential, though potential looks marginal
at most at this time. Cluster analysis of global ensemble members
indicate uncertainty regarding the speed and amplitude of the
trough. Majority of solutions at this time indicate a less
amplified and quicker trough which would tend to greatly limit the
severe potential. But around one third do have a more amplified,
slower trough with a more pronounced surface low and increased
low-level and deep-layer shear, potentially increasing the severe
potential somewhat. Instability will be the main limiting factor
with either solution, however, with the system moving through
late Saturday night/Sunday morning and lapse rates being weak to
modest. Some deterministic model solutions also indicate
convection out-running the instability (depicted instability
appearing behind the precipitation). So severe potential is well
below the level 2 out of 5 needed to message this far out, but
wouldn't be surprised if some western areas end up in a level 1
out of 5 risk when we get closer.
Highest chances for rainfall at this time look to be generally
between midnight Saturday night and noon Sunday. Probabilities of
exceeding an inch are low to medium, but probabilities of
exceeding 2 inches are very low to low. Cooler air moves on Monday
behind the front.
32/JDavis
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Winds will be out of the northeast this afternoon at 5 to 10 kts,
becoming light overnight.
32/JDavis
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday.
Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon
through Thursday before a moistening trend begins on Friday. 20
foot winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning
remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 52 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Anniston 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 56 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 55 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
Auburn 58 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
Troy 56 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION...32
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 141735
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The weather will remain rather benign through most of the week as
sprawling high pressure remains in place across most of the
eastern CONUS. Light northerly/northeasterly flow will gradually
become more easterly with time as the high shifts to the eastern
seaboard. However, the weather will remain dry and seasonably
warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.
The next chance of rain will be over the weekend as an upper
trough and associated cold front approach the area. Rain chances
will increase from west to east starting late Saturday afternoon
and continuing through the the first half of Sunday. The system
looks to be rather fast-moving, so overall rainfall totals are
likely to be limited. The severe threat still looks limited as
well, although isolated thunder and a stronger storm or two cannot
be ruled out. Rip currents will be low through most of the week
until they will rapidly increase to HIGH by the weekend as
southerly flow strengthens Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Light winds will prevail over the coastal waters through the
middle of the week, with offshore flow becoming more easterly with
time. Winds and seas will increase on Friday into the weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front, with exercise caution
conditions possible. Offshore flow will develop behind the front
during the day on Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 62 87 63 86 66 86 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 65 85 64 85 67 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Destin 67 85 66 84 68 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Evergreen 56 90 56 91 59 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 56 86 56 88 58 87 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 55 88 57 88 59 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 56 88 56 88 59 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
FXUS64 KMOB 141746
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The weather will remain rather benign through most of the week as
sprawling high pressure remains in place across most of the
eastern CONUS. Light northerly/northeasterly flow will gradually
become more easterly with time as the high shifts to the eastern
seaboard. However, the weather will remain dry and seasonably
warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.
The next chance of rain will be over the weekend as an upper
trough and associated cold front approach the area. Rain chances
will increase from west to east starting late Saturday afternoon
and continuing through the the first half of Sunday. The system
looks to be rather fast-moving, so overall rainfall totals are
likely to be limited. The severe threat still looks limited as
well, although isolated thunder and a stronger storm or two cannot
be ruled out. Rip currents will be low through most of the week
until they will rapidly increase to HIGH by the weekend as
southerly flow strengthens Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Light winds will prevail over the coastal waters through the
middle of the week, with offshore flow becoming more easterly with
time. Winds and seas will increase on Friday into the weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front, with exercise caution
conditions possible. Offshore flow will develop behind the front
during the day on Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 58 87 58 87 63 85 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10
Pensacola 64 86 64 86 66 83 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Destin 66 85 65 85 67 83 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 54 90 54 90 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 54 88 55 88 58 88 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 54 89 55 89 58 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 54 89 54 89 59 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
