Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 060020
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
620 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
- Below average high temperatures are anticipated through
Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
One more day of rain is anticipated, as the "conveyer belt of
moisture" remains in place. However, troughing will begin to drop
south through the Midwest during the evening hours of Sunday. This
will allow for the conveyer belt to be shut off, as the cold front
cuts the moisture by Monday. With that being said, rain chances
could actually expand during the day on Sunday, as the trough is
forming a bit farther to the west. This will allow for the low
pressure and cold front to work farther north, bringing better
forcing with it. This rain shouldn't be much more than showers, with
it quickly exiting the region by Monday morning.
Fog will also be possible tonight and tomorrow night, given a lack of
winds and plenty of moisture at the surface. This fog is likely to
be patchy in some areas, but quite dense in others. Depending on how
fast winds decouple, widespread dense fog will be possible, and that
will be something we'll keep an eye on here the next two nights.
Conditions will briefly stabilize behind this front, with most of
the region falling below freezing by Tuesday morning. From here,
temperatures will gradually warm, before isolated rain chances
return ahead of another system on Thursday AM. This system will once
again allow for cold air to get reinforced across the region, with
temperatures continuing to run slightly below average into next
weekend.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
Light rain showers remain possible off/on through much of the
forecast for MGM/AUO, but the NRN sites should remain generally
rain-free. There is currently a large swath of moisture/stratus
noted on satellite by way of MVFR to IFR cigs. Conditions should
deteriorate further for some (BHM/AUO) to LIFR during the late
night hours after ~8z. However, sites should improve during the
morning with NRN sites (TCL/BHM/EET) going VFR ~ 18z. Further S
for MGM/AUO, it may take a couple of more hours for conditions to
improve.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will remain above 50% for most of the next seven days,
even with rain chances tapering off by tomorrow. Before this
happens, one last push of rain is anticipated on Sunday. This will
wet fuels enough to keep the fire weather concerns limited through
at least the middle of the upcoming workweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 33 53 30 57 / 10 10 0 20
Anniston 37 53 35 58 / 20 20 10 20
Birmingham 37 53 36 57 / 10 20 10 20
Tuscaloosa 36 54 37 60 / 10 20 10 20
Calera 36 55 36 60 / 20 20 10 20
Auburn 42 53 40 57 / 40 60 10 30
Montgomery 41 53 41 59 / 40 50 10 20
Troy 42 52 42 60 / 50 70 20 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 052343
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
543 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
- Additional rounds of light to moderate rain through Saturday
will be focused near and southeast of the I-65 corridor.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents
through the early evening hours for the beaches of Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle.
- A strong cold front will move across the area late Sunday
night into early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous marine
conditions for small craft through Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
The next round of rain is moving in as of midday as the next
subtle shortwave embedded in the upper level southwest flow moves
through. It looks like this round will impact us mostly this
afternoon into early this evening, with highest totals being over
the southern and eastern half of the area. This round will likely
be followed by another relative lull in the rain late this evening
into part of the overnight. However, a more well defined
shortwave currently moving into the southern Plains will result in
a new round of light to moderate developing by early Saturday
morning along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Given the more
progressive nature of this shortwave from west to east, we finally
expect to see significant rain chances come to an end from west
to east by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Additional rainfall totals of a 0.5-1.5" are possible in the
eastern half of the area, with the highest totals favored along
the coast. We currently do not expect much in the way of flooding
issues outside of some ponding of water in poor drainage areas.
Yet another strong shortwave will move out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the southeast/TN Valley by Sunday night. This
will push a much stronger cold front through the area late Sunday
night into early Monday morning. It's a bit uncertain how much
deep layer moisture will be available ahead of this system, but we
did maintain a chance of showers for Sunday and Sunday night
given the dynamics of this system.
Much colder and drier air moves into the area in the wake of the
front for early next week. A light freeze is likely along and
north of Hwy 84 Tuesday morning. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
Area surface observations are reporting widespread IFR ceilings,
with occasional drops to LIFR levels, mainly associated with
periods of light rain. These low ceilings are expected to persist
through Saturday afternoon, with light to occasional moderate rain
chances increasing along and southeast of the I-65 corridor
through the morning hours Saturday into early afternoon. Light
northerly winds will continue through the period. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025
A light to moderate offshore flow will persist through Saturday
as a cold front settles further south over the Gulf waters. A
strong cold front will move through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, bringing another round of strong offshore flow and
building seas across the open Gulf waters. Winds and seas will
subside through midweek as high pressure builds over the region.
34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 54 46 55 48 / 60 60 80 20
Pensacola 56 50 57 52 / 80 70 90 30
Destin 59 51 58 53 / 90 70 90 40
Evergreen 53 42 55 42 / 60 60 80 10
Waynesboro 49 41 55 42 / 30 40 40 10
Camden 50 39 53 40 / 50 40 50 10
Crestview 56 46 55 45 / 80 70 90 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
