Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 192337
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
537 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- Low to medium chances of dense fog tonight in southern
portions of Central Alabama.
- Warm conditions with near-record highs expected Thursday.
- A cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the area on
Friday and Saturday, but severe weather is not expected.
- A cold front will bring showers and storms on next Tuesday,
with a low probability of strong to severe weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
Behind a weak surface low and remnant warm front across central
Alabama, there will be broad ridging over the northern Gulf. This
will contribute to abnormally warm conditions across the region
through Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
With the position of the more moist airmass across the southern
half of the area, there is a medium probability of patchy to dense
fog after 3 am for areas generally along and south of I-85. A
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed this evening.
A shortwave should eject across the Plains on Friday with the Gulf
ridge weakening. Another surface low will track from the Ozarks and
reach the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday. Periodic showers and a
few thunderstorms will arrive in our west Friday afternoon,
continuing off and on through Saturday as a weak cold front moves
through the area. Poor instability and weakening upper-level support
should limit the severe threat for the weekend.
High pressure will build back over the area on Sunday and rain
chances will decrease as the cold front moves east of the area.
Temperatures will remain above average heading into next week.
The pattern looks to remain active with a cutoff low shifting east
across the Four Corners and towards the Southern Plains on Monday.
This system, remains more organized within the model scenarios and
will be worth monitoring over the next few days for potential strong
to severe storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Right now models
indicate the concern for stronger activity, but timing differences
are resulting in low confidence of exact locations and time of the
strongest activity.16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
For central Alabama TAF sites, ceiling forecast remains a bit
problematic. Cloud bases were able to get above 3000 ft in most
spots before dark today. Computer model guidance is still not in
the best agreement in what happens from here over the next 24
hours. I hedged my bets on the model that more correctly predicted
the lower ceilings hanging on through the day today. That model
suggests ceilings not straying much from where they are now until
1400 or 1500 UTC tomorrow. The fog formation forecast is even more
uncertain. If it happens, it should be limited to MGM and/or AUO,
but I do wonder if the ongoing strato-cu cloud deck might suppress
fog formation that far north. We'll keep an eye on things.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will remain well above critical thresholds for the next
few days. Area-wide rain chances return to the forecast on Friday
and next Tuesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
Record High Temperatures:
November 19:
KBHM: 80/1985
KEET: 75/1999
KANB: 81/1963
KTCL: 80/1981
KMGM: 84/1906
November 20:
KBHM: 79/1896
KEET: 75/2007
KANB: 78/1979
KTCL: 80/1949
KMGM: 81/1900
November 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011
November 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 56 79 56 75 / 0 10 10 40
Anniston 59 80 58 75 / 0 10 10 30
Birmingham 60 80 60 74 / 0 10 10 50
Tuscaloosa 60 81 58 75 / 0 0 10 60
Calera 58 82 57 76 / 0 0 0 50
Auburn 59 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 20
Montgomery 58 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 30
Troy 56 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../61/
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 192343
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
543 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
- Areas of dense fog will be possible across southeastern
Mississippi and southwest Alabama again tonight into Thursday
morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible each morning through
the end of the week.
- Risk for rip currents will increase late in the week ahead of
the next chance for showers and storms.
- Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
until the rain arrives.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
In the upper levels we remain dominated under an elongated ridge
that extends from the Hudson Bay into the Bay of Campeche. Across
southern California an upper level low situated in the base of a
digging trough is attempting to move further east. In the short
term, the ridge will hold in place and steer this next system up
and over into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, it will act to
temporarily flatten the ridge and shift southward across the Gulf
Basin for the weekend. By early next week, the next Pacific Low
will move inland, and advance eastward with more force. This will
initially sharpen the ridge back up but then quickly get shunted
east out towards the Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday.
In the low levels, a broad and expansive ridge centered south of
the Emerald Coast of Florida will slide east in response to the
approaching aforementioned upper level trough. The front
associated with this feature will not successfully pass through
the area, but rather stall across the northern tier of our CWA.
The ridge will then sink southward and weaken slightly over the
weekend, before reconsolidating across the western half of the
Gulf in advance of the next trough.
For the forecast, southerly winds will return beginning Thursday
as the low level ridge and surface high shift east. Light surface
flow plus a moist boundary layer will continue a threat for dense
fog, both radiational and sea fog. The threat for sea fog will be
highest across the Mobile Bay Friday morning as the southerly
winds return. At the same time, the low level steering flow will
allow for better low level moisture, currently across the Gulf, to
advect north to northeast and into the region late Thursday/early
Friday. Despite the increase in moisture, we will lack organized
lift and/or instability. Therefore will tread a middle of the road
approach with PoPs. That being said, rain chances will be highest
in our northwestern CWA. Thereafter, moisture aloft will continue
to linger along a boundary, which coupled with the increasing
southerly flow, will maintain a threat for patchy dense fog at
times. In addition, southerly winds will promote a higher risk for
rip currents starting Friday. Better moisture and instability
with the upcoming front early next week will lead to a better
chance for wetting rains as well as some thunderstorms. Some
severe potential is possible, but large spread in how models are
resolving all the specific features, is resulting in low
predictability.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Widespread dense fog will develop along the coast around mid-
evening and spread inland through the overnight hours into
Thursday morning. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to fall
to LIFR to VLIFR area-wide by the pre-dawn hours on Thursday and
likely stay there until 20/16z before completely dissipating to
VFR flight categories by late morning. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will prevail
overnight. Breezes will then freshen to moderate and veer to the
south into Friday ahead of an approaching front. This will be
followed by gentle southwesterlies to kick off the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 60 77 61 79 / 0 0 10 40
Pensacola 61 75 64 78 / 0 0 0 20
Destin 62 75 65 76 / 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 56 83 57 81 / 0 0 0 30
Waynesboro 58 81 59 77 / 0 0 10 60
Camden 57 81 57 78 / 0 0 0 40
Crestview 55 80 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
for FLZ201>206.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ630>636.
&&
$$
