al discuss
Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 160027
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
727 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 707 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
- There is a moderate to major heat risk across Central Alabama
today and Wednesday. To avoid heat-related illness, heat safety
should be exercised for people and pets.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
The main weather story for this short-term will continue to be the
heat, as upper-level ridging will remain in place for the next few
days. Given the placement of the ridge, afternoon heat index
values should climb above 105 degrees in the afternoon for our
western zones, with lower heat index values anticipated east.
To account for these higher heat index values, a heat advisory has
been issued for a good chunk of our region for Wednesday.
As for our eastern zones, tropical moisture will begin to work
its way in, as a disturbance moves west off of Florida. This will
result in increased cloud cover, and rain chances during the
afternoon hours, slightly suppressing peak heating.
/44/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
This tropical disturbance will continue to meander into the Gulf
towards the weekend, allowing for that rich tropical moisture to
completely overtake the region. In turn, cloud cover and rain
chances will expand across the area, keeping afternoon highs in
the low-90s. This should prevent the need for future heat
advisories through the weekend. However, it appears as if upper-
level ridging will quickly build back in by Monday, and linger for
much of the new workweek. There is already a pretty decent signal
that heat index values will quickly climb back to 105 degrees or
above, which may result in an extended period of heat headlines
come Monday.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
All sites are currently VFR and expected to remain that way
generally through the 24 hour forecast. Some early morning stratus
is possible coming in/developing from the E from GA but should not
reach any of the terminals. There are some TSRA on the radar
currently to the E of MGM they are moving to the SW. Latest
guidance shows them staying E/SE of MGM. Will monitor closely for
any needed amendments over the next couple of hours. More
afternoon convection is expected for Wed. ATTM, I have a mention
only for MGM after 21z.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will begin to climb over the next few days, as a
surge of tropical moisture works into the region. This surge will
also result in increased rain chances, keeping the fire weather
threat little to none.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 72 95 73 93 / 10 20 20 40
Anniston 73 92 73 91 / 10 20 20 40
Birmingham 75 96 75 92 / 10 20 10 40
Tuscaloosa 76 96 76 92 / 0 20 10 50
Calera 75 94 75 91 / 10 20 10 50
Auburn 75 91 73 90 / 20 30 10 50
Montgomery 76 94 75 92 / 20 30 20 70
Troy 73 92 72 92 / 20 50 20 70
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-
Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...08
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 160024
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
724 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Now through Tuesday...
For the current forecast, the biggest item to deal with is a system
moving west over the northern Gulf, passing south of the forecast
area Wednesday. Heat Indices bumping Heat Advisory levels before and
after the passing system are the second item.
Looking at the bigger picture, the aforementioned system moves west
on the south side of upper level high pressure situated over the
Southeast. A surface low associated with this system passes south of
the forecast area Wednesday, with the forecast area coming under
stronger southerly flow late Wednesday into Friday. As the system
moves over very warm Gulf waters (water temps in the upper 80s over
the northern Gulf), it is expected to become a bit better organized.
How much more organized depends on how far south of the disruptive
Gulf coast it travels. As of the 1 PM CDT Tuesday issuance from the
NHC, a 40% chance of this system becoming a tropical system is being
advertised. Guidance is advertising the system become better
organized as it begins to move west of the upper ridge (and inland
over southern Louisiana). Deep layer flow increases over the
northern Gulf coast, pumping Gulf moisture inland, with precipitable
h20 values rising above 2.4" over the forecast area and nearby.
MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg Wednesday drop into the 1000-1500J/kg
range Thursday and Friday, with an uptick in the coming weekend.
With the soupy airmass over the forecast area the end of the week,
the expected thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rainers, and
with training cells possible, especially over our southern-most tier
of counties, water issues may be an issue. WPC has placed our
southern tier of counties west of the Florida state line in a slight
risk of excessive rain for Friday. Am holding off on any Flood Watch
at this time, with the ultimate path of the system this far out a
bit hard to pin down.
After this system moves off, upper level high pressure over the
Southeast shifts west a bit, but remains in control over the region.
A surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf, keeping moisture
levels high. Daily, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
land areas of the forecast area are expected, overnight into early
morning over our Gulf waters.
Temperatures start well above seasonal averages, take a dip as rain
chances increase the end of the week, then bounce back over the
weekend into the coming week, especially high temperatures. High
temperatures in the low to mid 90s Wednesday drop into the upper 80s
to around 90 for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures quickly
rebound back into the low to mid 90s by Sunday lasting into the
coming week. Heat indices Wednesday bump Heat Advisory levels
(108+), with most of the forecast area topping out in the 102-107
degree range. The drop in temperatures with the passing system will
drop Heat Indices to around 100 for Thursday and Friday. Heat
Indices then rebound back into the 102-107 degree range for Sunday
into the coming week. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s north
of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 south expected through the forecast.
An increasing tidal cycle along with greater swell on the lee side
of the passing surface low will bring a High Risk of rip currents
Thursday and Friday
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
VFR conditions will likely prevail across most of the area
tonight, except across the far eastern portions of the Florida
Panhandle where numerous showers and thunderstorms are leading to
IFR visbys. Showers and storms should subside over the next few
hours as VFR conditions return to the remainder of the area.
Expect showers and storms to develop along the I-10 corridor
tomorrow afternoon leading to temporary reductions to IFR/LIFR
with the strongest storms. Winds will be light and variable
overnight becoming light southeasterly during the afternoon. BB/8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
A light variable flow will become a moderate onshore by Thursday on
the lee side of a westward moving surface low. Winds will east to a
light to at times moderate this weekend into the coming week as a
surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 95 74 88 75 88 75 90 / 10 70 50 100 50 90 20 80
Pensacola 78 92 77 88 78 89 79 91 / 30 80 60 90 50 90 20 60
Destin 79 91 80 89 80 87 81 92 / 50 80 60 90 50 80 10 50
Evergreen 74 95 73 91 74 90 73 93 / 20 60 30 80 20 80 10 50
Waynesboro 74 97 73 92 73 88 73 93 / 10 30 30 80 20 90 10 60
Camden 75 95 74 91 73 89 73 91 / 10 40 20 70 10 80 10 50
Crestview 74 93 73 90 75 91 74 94 / 30 90 40 90 30 90 10 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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