al discuss
Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 031738
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- Below average temperatures are anticipated for most of the next
seven days.
- Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
Surface ridging will hold on strong today, keeping clouds in place
through the morning under this stable airmass. However, this ridge
will begin to break down into the evening hours, as this new surface
low takes shape in the northern Gulf. Rain chances associated with
this low will begin to increase by the morning hours on Thursday,
with widespread rainfall continuing through the weekend.
The heaviest axis of this rainfall will depend on how far north
this surface low ends up tracking. Right now, it appears the
largest rainfall amounts will stay below I-20, with most locations
here seeing 1-2 inches of rain. Farther south near the I-85
corridor, 3+ inches of rain will be possible, as that is where the
stronger forcing will be along the low pressure. All this rain
will fall over a several day period, so the only impact expected
is additional relief from the ongoing drought.
By Sunday, a longwave trough will begin to drop south through the
Midwest, working into the region by Monday. This will finally push
the rest of the lingering rain to the east, with dry conditions
returning to the region. During the process, another shot of
reinforcing cold air will work in behind a cold front, with lows
Monday night dropping into the mid to upper-20s. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally remain below average for this time of
the year.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
Skies will continue to clear over the next few hours, allowing for
VFR conditions through the night. However, clouds and rain chances
will increase closer to 04/12z, dropping most terminals into low-
end VFR/MVFR. However, at KTCL, the clouds should arrive closer to
04/06z, with IFR conditions possible through the morning hours.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances will begin to increase by tomorrow morning, as another
system works its way in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of
rainfall are expected through Saturday, with some locations getting
north of 3 inches. These values will heavily depend on where the
heaviest rainfall banding sets up. No flooding is expected, and the
only impact across the region will be continued drought relief.
Otherwise, MinRH values will remain above 50%, and fire weather
concerns will remain limited through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 50 31 49 38 / 0 0 30 80
Anniston 50 33 49 40 / 0 0 40 90
Birmingham 49 35 49 40 / 0 0 50 90
Tuscaloosa 51 35 49 41 / 0 10 60 90
Calera 52 34 49 40 / 0 0 60 90
Auburn 52 36 48 42 / 0 0 60 100
Montgomery 51 36 47 43 / 0 0 80 100
Troy 52 37 48 43 / 0 0 80 90
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 031844
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1244 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
- Periods of heavy rain are expected Thursday through Saturday
with the potential of localized flooding.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents on
Friday for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Low clouds have finally cleared out of the area as of midday. The
extended period of cloud cover this morning has delayed our
warming with most areas still in the mid to upper 40s as of noon.
We nudged down the previous forecast high temperatures a few
degrees and most locations should top out in the low to mid 50s
this afternoon.
Upper level flow will transition to a more southwesterly flow
over the next 24 hours and persist through the weekend. A series
of embedded shortwaves will move across the region in this
pattern, setting the stage for a very wet end of the week. The
first shortwave will begin to impact us overnight tonight into
Thursday. Rain will develop and spread in from west to east after
midnight through Thursday in response to increasing southwest flow
above the surface and strengthening isentropic lift. This
combined with an impressive return of deep layer moisture (PWATs
increasing to 1.5-1.75") will mean that periods of moderate to
heavy rain are expected. After this first round of rain, we may
see periods of less coverage and intensity in the rain Thursday
night through Friday night, but details are uncertain and hinge on
the timing of the subtle embedded shortwaves. Bottom line is that
that high rain chances will persist. We will also be monitoring a
surface low that is forecast to develop over SE LA late Friday
night and move toward the Florida Panhandle Friday morning. As the
low develops, a warm front will move north toward the coast. At
this point, it appears that the best instability will remain
offshore, thus limiting the threat for strong to severe storms
along the immediate coast. However, we will continue to monitor
this closely. There is no concern for severe weather further
inland. By Saturday and Saturday night, it appears the best focus
for additional rain will be along and southeast of the I-65
corridor as a stronger shortwave approaches from the west. Rain
chances are expected to diminish in earnest from west to east by
Sunday as a longwave upper level trough amplifies over the eastern
half of the country. We should then see dry weather as we head
into early next week.
Rainfall totals of 2-4" are increasingly likely over parts of the
area and we cannot rule out isolated totals as high as 6".
Guidance continues to differ on exactly where the band of heaviest
rain will occur, so there is some uncertainty there. However, the
latest probabilistic guidance indicates the highest probabilities
of seeing 4" of rain currently resides along and southeast of the
I-65 corridor (30-50% chance).
Did we mention it's going to be a cold rain? It definitely will
be, especially on Thursday with highs only topping out in the
upper 40s well inland to mid/upper 50s on the immediate coast. We
may get temperatures to briefly reach the upper 60s to near 70
along the immediate coast on Friday with the warm front, but that
will be short lived. High temperatures will likely be at or below
normal for the weekend through early next week with lows in the
30s returning by Monday night. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon. Clouds and lower
ceilings will move into the area tonight with chances of rain
increasing after midnight. IFR conditions can be expected for much
of the area after 12Z as low ceilings and rain spread across the
area. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to
easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along
with building seas. A brief period of moderate onshore flow is
likely over the Gulf waters Friday morning as a surface low and
warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle. We cannot rule
out a few strong storms over the open Gulf waters Friday morning.
A general light offshore over the weekend will likely strengthen
by Monday as a strong surface high builds in from the north.
34/JFB
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
