Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 260540
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
A short wave was generally moving eastward over north Alabama this
evening. Light radar returns were being picked up with this
feature. Any showers that make it to the surface will be light.
Made some small adjustments in the pop zone, while a few areas
south may experience a sprinkle or two. The warm front was still
located south of TCL/BHM/ANB and will drift northward through
Friday morning. Generally becoming partly cloudy overnight with
lows still expected in the 50s and 60s. Friday's forecast on
track. It will be warm with highs in the 80s.
75
Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
The weak surface front has stalled out as expected near the U.S.
80/I-85 corridors early this afternoon. Dewpoints north of the
boundary are running in the upper 40s to lower 50s while 60s
dewpoints were observed across the far south. You can also
pinpoint where the front resides looking at visible satellite
imagery and where low-level cumulus clouds have formed. Meanwhile,
an upper level shortwave impulse within northwesterly flow at
500mb aided in the development of widespread showers and storms
across Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. As
this activity attempts to move southeastward, most development is
expected to dissipate due to dry air remaining in place over
Alabama and Georgia. However, as the surface front lifts
northward as a warm front later today through the overnight, a
slight chance of showers or a storm remains in the forecast for
far western counties this afternoon. Northern and northeastern
counties could see some isolated activity overnight through early
Friday morning. Temperatures will be mild overnight with the warm
front moving northward, ranging from the mid 50s north to the
lower 60s south.
Increasing upper level heights on Friday will lead to very warm
temperatures with southerly flow at the surface. Although it
hasn't been officially added to the forecast, we could see some
isolated convective activity in our far northeast counties based
on the latest CAMs. The old surface boundary will still be hanging
around as a wedge of cooler air tries to push westward from
northern Georgia. So far, I don't have enough confidence to
include in the forecast just yet, but I wouldn't rule out us
having to add a slight chance PoP from Cleburne County northward
to Cherokee County Friday afternoon. Under partly cloudy skies,
we'll start to feel more like summer as highs reach the low to mid
80s, approaching the upper 80s in Pike and Barbour Counties.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
Previous forecast thinking remains valid. Monday afternoon into
Tuesday looks to be the most active period of the extended, with
chances for rain and thunderstorms mainly in the northern and
western counties of Central Alabama. Very little rainfall, if any,
is currently forecast for the southeast corner, south of I-85,
through Wednesday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s each day
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s each night.
12
Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
Two significant shortwave ejections will occur across the Plains
and Midwest over the course of the Friday night through Sunday
period. Meanwhile a ridge will remain in place over the Southeast
CONUS through most of Monday. Eventually the second trough in the
Plains should progress eastward on Monday afternoon and Tuesday
with increasing rain chances mainly north of I-59. Models continue
to indicate a cold front that weakens on approach, and the
southern portions of our area may remain dry through Wednesday.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with light
and variable winds overnight. Winds will increase Friday morning
from the southeast to 9-12kts, with sct to bkn mid and high
clouds. Winds diminish slightly to 5-9kts Friday evening.
Isolated convection is possible across the far eastern counties
Friday afternoon, but chances of impacts at ASN and ANB are too
low to include at this time.
14
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front in the area will allow for isolated showers/storms this
afternoon and evening over northern counties. 20ft winds will be
light and variable through tonight, with minimum RH values this
afternoon of 28 to 35 in the north, central, and southeast, and 35
to 45 percent south and southwest. Friday, 20ft winds increase from
the south at 6-12 mph, with minimum RH values of 35 to 45 percent.
Rainfree conditions continue through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 82 64 81 59 / 20 10 10 0
Anniston 82 64 81 61 / 20 10 10 0
Birmingham 84 66 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
Tuscaloosa 85 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 0
Calera 83 65 82 62 / 10 10 10 0
Auburn 82 63 79 62 / 20 10 10 0
Montgomery 86 66 84 64 / 10 10 10 0
Troy 85 65 83 62 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 260542 AAB
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
VFR ceilings will persist through the forecast period with some
fog developing through the early morning hours of Friday. This may
result in some MVFR visibility reductions at times. The greatest
potential for fog should remain along or just north of the I-10
corridor between 08z and 13z. Fog should quickly dissipate after
13z with increased surface heating and mixing. Southerly winds
should develop Friday morning and become gusty from mid morning
into the afternoon. Dry conditions should persist through the
period. /JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/
.NEAR TERM...(Now through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Upper ridging will slowly build eastward during the overnight
hours as the axis of an upper level trough swings into the Plains.
At the surface, southerly flow will persist, filtering in warm and
moist air. Current conditions across the forecast area are on the
warm side, as temps have risen into the lower to mid 80s under
partly cloudy skies. Skies will remain partly cloudy over the
most part tonight and winds are expected to become calm, leading
to radiational cooling for our overnight hours. This will allow
temps to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. The
upper ridge will strengthen a bit on Friday morning before it
begins to exit the area as the trough to our west slides eastward.
Seasonably warm temperatures are expected again on Friday, as
highs warm into the lower to mid 80s. /73
&&
.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Dry and seasonably warm conditions will persist through the
weekend as upper ridging and surface high pressure maintain their
hold on the sensible weather pattern. The aforementioned trough
to our west will pivot northward before it becomes absorbed in the
ridging aloft. Another closed low and trough will then swing into
the Plains again and the upper ridge will strengthen over the
southeast. Temps through the weekend will rise into the lower 80s
during the day and fall into the lower to mid 60s during the
overnight hours.
The closed low over the plains will open as it moves to the
northeast at the start of the upcoming work week. The ridge will
maintain its hold through at least Monday, with another dry and
seasonal day is on tap. The upper ridge will continue to push to
the east through the day on Tuesday, as the weakening trough moves
into the Mississippi Valley. The trough will continue to weaken
through the day and flow aloft will become more zonal by Tuesday
afternoon. There may be enough forcing to lend isolated
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, with the better chances
during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Confidence is not overly
high on the coverage and for now will cap PoPs to 30%. Another
ridge begins to build eastward on Wednesday, with dry conditions
expected to return. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Onshore flow will persist and then strengthen late Friday and
especially this weekend. Winds may become sustained between 15-25
kt over the marine area through much of the weekend. Seas may
build to 5-8 ft over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely become necessary this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 65 81 66 80 65 82 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
Pensacola 67 78 68 78 67 79 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Destin 68 78 68 78 68 79 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Evergreen 61 84 61 84 59 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
Waynesboro 63 84 63 83 61 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 20 30
Camden 63 83 62 83 60 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20
Crestview 60 84 61 84 59 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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