al discuss
Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 292024
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
224 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- Significant rain amounts of one to two inches expected across
central Alabama tonight through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
Everything remains pretty much on track for a substantial rain
event for central Alabama over the next 3+ days. The first signs
of change are on our doorstep, with radar showing showers across
parts of Mississippi. We've still got lots of dry in the low
levels here in Alabama, so as that MS stuff heads east it is
initially expected to dry up or just produce virga. However, large
scale lift associated with an upper level shortwave and advancing
surface cold front will eventually allow the column to become more
saturated. Widespread showers will spread from west to east across
our area late tonight through the day on Sunday.
We do still expect a lull in the steady rain late Sunday into
very early Monday, as the cold front stalls out and the lead
shortwave lifts out to the northeast. However, the next shortwave
trough will follow close behind, and induce an overrunning rain
event Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. We will be on the
cold side of the airmass, with the surface low moving eastward
right along the Gulf coast. Cold rain, especially Monday night.
The rain comes to an end later in the day on Tuesday, and surface
high pressure builds back into the southeast states. Beyond that,
forecast confidence nosedives, as global models continue to
diverge on how the next series of shortwaves is handled.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR conditions can be anticipated across central Alabama TAF sites
through this evening. An approaching cold front will ultimately
lead to lowering ceilings and increasing chances of rain late
tonight into early Sunday. The moistening process will be top-
down, with ceilings following suit. At some point, the rain will
come down hard enough to bring cloud bases down below 3000 ft.
I've tried to time out the transition from VFR to MVFR as best I
could, but there is a bit of uncertainty due to the showery nature
of the rain. Once the ceilings drop, they will likely stay that
way well beyond the end of the current 24-hour forecast period.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of upper level diturbances will bring at least two waves
of rain to central Alabama late Saturday night through Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 38 52 29 53 / 50 60 10 50
Anniston 41 53 33 55 / 30 60 20 50
Birmingham 44 52 34 53 / 50 70 20 50
Tuscaloosa 44 53 34 53 / 60 70 20 60
Calera 42 56 34 56 / 40 70 20 50
Auburn 43 61 42 58 / 10 40 20 40
Montgomery 43 61 44 61 / 10 40 20 40
Troy 42 66 45 63 / 0 30 20 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 291833
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
- Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning, and
possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as
well.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
expected for Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Now through Saturday...
KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate easterly flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft over open Gulf and some protected waters into Sunday morning,
and possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as
well.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area
beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for
Monday night and Tuesday.
- A series of passing systems may bring strong storms local ponding
of water to the area Monday night into Tuesday, then again friday
into the weekend.
Upper level shortwave energy ahead of a deep upper trough has dug
south over the western Conus the end of work week. Zonal upper flow
has set up over the Southeast, keeping most of the upper shortwave
energy well north of the forecast area as it moves east over the
Eastern Conus, though a series of weaker shortwaves move across the
region later tonight into Sunday night. Another deeper shortwave
trough moves over the Southeast Monday through Tuesday, though the
bulk of the energy is kept north of the Gulf coast. Surface high
pressure north of the forecast area has moved to the East Coast at
this time, restoring modest onshore flow to the forecast area,
though better return west of the area, over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. The airmass over the forecast area has moistened a bit
on the SPC mesoanalysis (precipitable h20 values of 0.30-0.55"), and
is expected to continue to moisten, rising to around 1.3-1.5"
Sunday. A cold front moves over the forecast area late Sunday into
Sunday night in response to the passing upper energy, eventually
stalling over the northern Gulf by Monday. Guidance is advertising a
surface low developing on the stalled surface front over the
northwestern Gulf Monday as the second shortwave trough approaches,
then moving northeast over/near the forecast area late Monday/Monday
night. Isentropic upglide showers develop ahead of the developing
surface low, with enough instability just north of the boundary and
points south for rumbles to mix in. With the inconsistency in the
guidance, have less confidence on where the rumbles occur. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday into the
weekend, though guidance varies on how fast the leading edge of the
precipitation moves over the forecast area Thursday into Thursday
night.
Taking a step back and looking at any rowdy weather through the
forecast, instability is modest (MUCapes < 1000J/kg) Sunday and
confined to the coast and south. Guidance is advertising some modest
upper divergence with the passing shortwave energy, along with Bulk
Wind Shear around 40kts coincident with the instability, mainly near
and south of the coast. Modest directional wind shear for spinners
will be confined to areas near the front, or south of the coast. For
Monday into Tuesday, guidance is advertising the stalled surface
boundary working its way north as a warm front over the northern
Gulf as the surface low approaches. Where this boundary ends up
varies. Some guidance has the boundary coming onshore to near the I-
10 corridor Monday night, with SBCapes of 1000-1500J/kg over land
areas (a bit higher south of the coast), 0-1km helicities topping
out near 200m^2/s^s over land areas, Bulk Wind shear near 50kts.
Some damaging winds and a few spinners are possible over our near
coastal areas Monday night, mainly over our Florida counties. North
of the coast, water issues in poor drainage areas are a possiblity,
though the more progressive nature of the passing system will help
to temper rainfall amounts. For the system the end of the week, any
rowdy storms are again expected to be over our coastal counties and
south, with upper support from a digging upper trough, instability
and wind shear coincident with the passing upper dynamics. Will need
to monitor. The biggest question is timing, with guidance varying
with the upper system's passage.
Looking at high temperatures, low to mid 60s today see a tightening
temperatures gradient Sunday into Tuesday, with mid/upper 50s along
our northern border to around 70 along the coast. Mid 50s to low 60s
are expected Wednesday and Thursday, rising to around 60 north of
Highway 84 to around 70 along the coast. Low temperatures around 40
on the northwestern-most portions of the forecast area through
Monday see a drop into the upper 20s north of Highway 84 to around
40 along the coast Tuesday night. From there low temperatures see a
rise into the mid 40s well north of Highway 84 to low 50s south of I-
10 Friday night.
Moderate to strong, but directionally variable flow, will create a
Moderate to High Rip Risk most of the period into Tuesday night. A
low risk is then expected through mid week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Southeasterly winds
around 10 knots this afternoon will shift to northeasterly 5 to 10
knots later tonight into Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish today and become
southeasterly. An offshore flow develops on Sunday as a cold
front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong Sunday night then becomes easterly on Monday.
An onshore flow develops Monday evening then switches to the
northwest Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% on Saturday over
interior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and a small
portion of the interior western Florida panhandle. 20 ft wind
speeds will remain below critical levels (around 10 mph), and the
Significant Fire Potential will be low so will just monitor at
this point. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 65 51 70 50 / 0 10 40 20
Pensacola 63 55 71 55 / 0 0 20 20
Destin 64 54 71 55 / 0 0 20 20
Evergreen 63 43 68 45 / 0 0 40 20
Waynesboro 60 45 59 41 / 0 30 60 30
Camden 59 43 60 42 / 0 10 50 20
Crestview 63 45 72 50 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
