Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 030022
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
622 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
- Below freezing temperatures are expected tonight, with below
average temperatures anticipated for most of the next seven
days.
- Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
with no flooding impacts expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
The forecast the next week will continue to be one reminiscent of
the Northeast this time of the year: cloudy, rainy, and colder.
Lows tonight are still anticipated to drop below freezing for most
of the region, with one major caveat: cloud cover. The low clouds
are still expected to mix out over the course of the day, but
there's currently a low to medium (20-60%) chance that mid to high
clouds develop overnight. This would stunt any type of radiational
cooling event overnight, keeping overnight lows higher. However, if
these cloud do not develop, then lows tonight are likely five
degrees too warm in some locations. With all that being said, given
the density of the current cloud deck, I do anticipated at least
some influence from the clouds on overnight lows in some capacity.
Dry conditions will return to the region on Wednesday, as we
experience a "lull" in the pattern, before the next system starts
to work into the region by Thursday. Here, a surface low will
kick off the Texas coast, and work its way into the Mobile Bay
area by Friday. In turn, rain chances will begin to increase in
some of our south zones by Thursday, with widespread rain expected
on Friday as this surface low pushes inland. An additional 1-2
inches of rain is expected, with rain showers lingering through
the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the forecast, with
another reinforcing shot of cold air possible sometime early next
week. Here, a series of troughs will be digging through the midwest,
with at least one of these troughs dropping south enough to allow
for that aforementioned cold air to work into the region.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
We have lots of post frontal moisture in the way of MVFR cigs area
wide with all of C AL blanketed on satellite OVC. Cigs will lower
to IFR between ~ 4-8z, and should remain that way until mid
morning, ~14-15z. Then cigs should lift back to MVFR before the
sky clears out with drier air.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A brief dry period is expected on Wednesday, before an additional
round of soaking rainfall moves into the region by Thursday evening.
1-2 inches of rain are anticipated, with the best rainfall amounts
currently expected in regions with the largest drought conditions.
Otherwise, MinRH values will hover in the 50-60% range through the
weekend, and Fire Weather concerns will remain limited due to wet
fuels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 26 52 28 51 / 0 0 0 20
Anniston 29 52 31 51 / 0 0 0 30
Birmingham 27 52 33 50 / 0 0 10 30
Tuscaloosa 29 53 33 52 / 0 0 10 40
Calera 29 55 32 54 / 0 0 10 40
Auburn 32 53 35 53 / 0 0 0 40
Montgomery 32 53 34 52 / 0 0 0 50
Troy 32 55 33 52 / 0 0 0 60
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 030700
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
- Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of
the week.
- A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Zonal flow aloft will gradually shift to a west-southwesterly flow
by Thursday evening, with a series of upper level impulses
traversing the region through the remainder of the week. A surface
high pressure area east of the Mississippi River will gradually
weaken through noon Thursday as it shifts eastward, while a low-
level inverted trough sets up over the Texas coast into southern
Louisiana. An impressive return of precipitable water (PWAT) will
occur as we transition from around 0.2 inch PWAT this morning under
a strong subsidence inversion, to range from 1.5-1.7 inches by
Thursday evening. Slightly higher PWAT values are expected after
midnight Thursday through noon Friday as we tap into an atmospheric
river extended over the entire western Gulf into the northern Gulf.
Likely to categorical precipitation chances (pops) for both Thursday
and Friday remain unchanged. These high pops will likely occur on
Saturday as well along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. There
also remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of
heavy rain over this period. Appropriately so, the southwestern
portion of our forecast area remains in marginal risk of excessive
rainfall on Thursday, our entire area is outlooked on Friday, and
areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor is outlooked on
Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are
forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible.
We will also closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and
attendant warm front/warm sector to determine if a potential exists
for more surface based convection and the risk of strong storms. The
entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a
dry period returning through the middle of next week.
Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today through Thursday
night will increase to MODERATE on Friday, and is expected to
drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025
Regional surface observations and satellite imagery are detecting
solid ceiling ranging from 900-1400 feet over the entire area.
Given the abundant moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion,
these ceilings will persist through daybreak Wednesday. The clouds
are expected to clear out by 15-18z Wednesday at the latest. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected through the
remainder of the week outside of locally higher winds/seas and
reduced visibilities associated with showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, light north to northeast winds today will shift
northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through
Thursday along with building seas. A series of low-level troughs and
surface lows will move eastward over the area Thursday afternoon
through the remainder of the week, bringing numerous to widespread
showers along with embedded thunderstorms. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 57 42 53 45 / 0 40 90 80
Pensacola 58 47 55 50 / 0 30 80 80
Destin 59 47 58 51 / 0 20 70 70
Evergreen 58 37 53 43 / 0 10 80 80
Waynesboro 56 35 48 40 / 0 40 80 90
Camden 53 33 49 40 / 0 10 70 90
Crestview 59 38 53 45 / 0 10 70 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
