Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 301129
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
529 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
expected across central Alabama today through Tuesday.
- Widespread freezing temperatures will return Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning.
- Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
upcoming week with an additional opportunity for significant
rainfall amounts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
Today through Tonight:
A very pronounced CAD wedge due to a strong surface ridge
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region continues to advect cooler
and drier air into Central Alabama during the early morning hours.
Some higher wind gusts have been observed at Birmingham and
Anniston as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
approaching cold front now moving east of the Mississippi River.
Looking aloft, strong isentropic upglide is ongoing due to the
easterly/southeasterly flow at the surface and strong
westerly/southwesterly flow above 850mb. Overrunning precipitation
continues to moisten the atmosphere from the top down, with
widespread rains reaching the surface along and north of the I-59
corridor. Farther south, most of the returns haven't reached the
ground just yet but should be very soon especially in locations
such as Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Demopolis. For some spots
across the north, we'll actually see some evaporative cooling
occur where we can get some moderate rainfall, as dewpoints are
still in the 30s at Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden. Thankfully
temperatures aren't any cooler or a wintry scenario would be in
the cards. Where rain is able to hold off, temperatures will
remain mostly steady overnight in the upper 40s to lower 50s under
overcast skies.
Widespread showers will continue to move southward during the day
today but eventually decrease in coverage with the 500mb shortwave
departing to the east and drier air working in aloft, followed by
northerly surface flow as the cold front moves in by this
afternoon. We'll catch a small piece of the arctic airmass
plunging southeast across the upper midwest from the 1038mb
surface ridge tonight. Cold Air Advection should send
temperatures down below the freezing mark across the Highway 278
corridor. The southern half of the state will remain draped in
cloud cover and moisture aloft as the front loses upper support
and stalls very close to the Highway 80/I-85 corridor. Lows are
forecast to range from the upper 30s in Clanton to the mid 40s in
Troy and Eufaula.
Monday through Tuesday Night:
Our break in the rainfall action won't last long as another potent
shortwave trough digs southward into the Four Corners States,
along with a 500mb shortwave ejecting northeast out of Mexico on
Monday. A huge plume of moisture between 850 and 700mb will
quickly spread northward from the Gulf and previous cold front
will move north as a warm front during the day on Monday. Plenty
of isentropic lift should occur once again as another CAD wedge
attempts to work in from Georgia. The result will be just what the
doctor ordered in terms of treating our current drought
conditions - widespread moderate to perhaps heavy soaking rain at
times. A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question
across southern counties. A surface low is forecast to move
northeast from Mobile Bay into southeastern Alabama through
Midnight Monday night and into early Tuesday morning. Heaviest
rainfall should be just north of the surface low and along and
east of I-65. 1 to 2 inches of rain on average remains in the
forecast, but we will likely see heavier amounts near the I-85
corridor before all is said and done.
Colder and drier air will arrive once again in the wake of the
departing surface low during the day on Tuesday, and for a lot of
folks it will be a cold and raw day. Cold air advection will send
a modified arctic airmass into the forecast area, with Haleyville
struggling to get out of the 30s and prevailing winds of 10 to
15mph gusting to 20mph at times. We'll see a large range in terms
of high temperatures, perhaps reaching 60 degrees before the
colder air arrives in Troy and Eufaula by Tuesday afternoon. As a
surface ridge builds in just to our north over Tennessee Tuesday
night, ideal radiational cooling conditions will send low
temperatures plummeting into the low and mid 20s for the northern
half of the CWA, and I'd bet a few colder valleys across the
northeast will see some teens by sunrise Wednesday morning.
Wednesday through Saturday:
Typical early December temperatures are advertised for Wednesday
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s with a zonal 500mb flow
pattern. However, global guidance is hinting at another potent
shortwave trough ejecting eastward from the Four Corners from
Thursday through next weekend. As currently advertised, this
system would be more dynamic with an additional dose of widespread
showers and storms. The question will be how much more dynamic the
approaching shortwave will be and the depth of the trough axis.
We've got plenty of time to watch this evolve, but for now
Thursday night through perhaps Saturday morning appears unsettled
and very soggy with temperatures staying on the cooler side.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
Scattered showers can be seen on the KBMX radar early this
morning. As this activity continues, we will see conditions
deteriorate across all terminals. MVFR ceilings are expected in
the next hour or two with IFR following by mid morning for
BHM/EET/TCL. AUO/MGM will begin to come down during the early
afternoon hours. This activity will gradually wane during the
early evening hours. VFR ceilings slowly return through the night
into Monday morning.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of storm systems will bring at least two waves of rain
to Central Alabama this morning through Tuesday afternoon. Rains
through this morning will be widespread but rainfall amounts
should remain fairly light. RH values will remain elevated through
Tuesday as a more significant system moves through the region and
widespread soaking rainfall is forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 51 30 53 42 / 80 10 60 100
Anniston 53 34 54 44 / 80 30 50 100
Birmingham 51 34 53 41 / 80 20 60 100
Tuscaloosa 52 36 52 40 / 80 10 60 100
Calera 54 36 56 43 / 80 20 60 100
Auburn 59 42 58 49 / 60 40 50 100
Montgomery 60 44 61 49 / 60 30 50 100
Troy 66 45 63 52 / 40 30 40 90
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...95/Castillo
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 301126
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Strong offshore flow may create hazardous conditions for small
craft over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
expected for Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
An upper trof progresses across the interior eastern states
through Sunday night, with an associated surface low meanwhile
bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the day on
Sunday. Instability looks to remain limited, with just showers
expected with the frontal passage. Have gone with mostly chance
to likely pops for Sunday, with the higher pops over southeast
Mississippi and interior portions of southwest Alabama. Slight
chance to chance pops follow for Sunday night. A positively
tilted upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states on
Sunday then takes on a more meridional orientation while
traversing the central states Monday into Monday night. The upper
trof weakens while continuing across the eastern states Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A surface low develops over the northwest Gulf
on Monday and then is expected to move across the portion of the
forecast area east of I-65 Monday night before continuing well
away from the area. This trajectory and the short turn around time
from Sunday's frontal passage will limit the potential for
instability to improve much before this system moves through. That
said, there's still uncertainty with the trajectory of the
surface low, and it's possible that sufficient instability could
be realized over the western Florida panhandle and possibly
coastal Alabama to warrant concern. Will continue to monitor at
this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops on Monday, then
categorical pops follow for Monday night. Rain chances taper to
dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday.
Dry conditions follow for Wednesday while another positively
tilted upper trof advances into the western half of the CONUS. The
upper trof looks to split substantially, with a portion
continuing quickly across the northeast states Thursday while the
remainder slowly advances into the central states on Friday. It's
possible that a cut off upper low may even manage to form near
the Baja area. This all makes for a rather uncertain upper and
surface pattern going into Friday and Saturday. That said, there
appears to be a general consensus for another surface low to
develop over the northwest Gulf Thursday into Thursday night which
then moves across the marine area or possibly the southern
portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Have gone
with chance pops for Thursday then likely pops follow for Friday
with chance pops for Saturday. Will continue to monitor. Overnight
lows tend to remain above seasonable values through the period
except for Tuesday night when lows range from the mid/upper 20s
well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast. Daytime highs will
be near seasonable values except for Tuesday through Thursday when
highs tend to range from the 50s well inland to lower/mid 60s at
the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through
Monday, with a high risk for Monday night and Tuesday. A moderate
risk follows for Tuesday night, then a low risk is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR flight category this afternoon and
locally IFR this evening. A cold front pushes across the area late
this afternoon into the evening, with winds shifting from
northeasterly to northerly. Winds this afternoon will also
increase in the wake of the front to near 10 knots gusting upwards
of 15 to 20 knots at times this evening. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Light to moderate easterly winds switch to the northeast on Sunday
as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong Sunday night then a southeasterly flow develops
on Monday. Winds become northwesterly late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft
Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, possibly into the afternoon. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 50 66 49 / 40 20 50 90
Pensacola 71 56 69 55 / 30 20 50 90
Destin 71 56 70 58 / 30 30 50 90
Evergreen 68 45 66 47 / 40 30 50 90
Waynesboro 57 41 57 40 / 70 30 60 90
Camden 59 43 60 41 / 60 20 50 90
Crestview 72 51 68 53 / 30 30 40 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
