Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 041048
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
448 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 443 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
- Up to 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.
- Below average high temperatures are anticipated through Tuesday,
with the exception of Sunday being near average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
Today through Friday
Patchy fog is possible this morning ahead of increasing rain chances
by late morning/midday. Rain will move through the area in two waves
from this morning through tonight and tomorrow morning. First, rain
will filter in after 6 am, mainly across the southern half of
Central Alabama. Maintained low chances across northern counties but
potential for rain during the morning hours is much lower than
across the south. Secondly, a larger rain mass will move in from
Mississippi during the late afternoon, overspreading most of Central
Alabama during and throughout the evening hours. Tonight will be
soggy and rain chances remain high through Friday morning,
especially across eastern and southeastern areas. Northwestern
counties should see rain chances decrease by daylight Friday.
Saturday through Wednesday
Rain chances will linger through the weekend, especially across
southern counties, as a conveyor belt of moisture moves across the
area. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s Saturday and
upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. Rain chances will end Sunday night
into Monday morning, and Monday looks to be cool and dry across much
of the region. Monday night lows are likely to drop to near freezing
across the southeast and below freezing across central and northern
areas. Temperatures will rebound again Tuesday and Wednesday, with
highs and lows slowly moderating.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Conditions will deteriorate through the day as a swath of rain
moves in from the west. -RA is expected for all terminals through
18-20Z. MVFR ceilings are likely to accompany this first round of
rain. After a brief lull, another round of rain moves in after
00Z. Ceilings will lower to IFR/LIFR through the night as this
second round moves through. Reduced vis will be likely with any
heavier shower. Best chances for brief heavy rain will be at
MGM/AUO.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances increase this morning, as another system works its way
in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of rainfall are expected
through Saturday, with southeastern locations approaching 3 inches.
Amounts will heavily depend on where the heaviest rainfall banding
sets up. No flooding is expected, and the only impact across the
region will be continued drought relief. Otherwise, MinRH values
will remain above 50% through Monday, and fire weather concerns will
remain limited through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 50 35 51 37 / 30 90 50 20
Anniston 50 38 52 40 / 40 100 60 30
Birmingham 50 40 51 41 / 50 90 40 30
Tuscaloosa 49 38 51 39 / 80 90 40 30
Calera 51 39 53 39 / 60 90 50 30
Auburn 49 43 54 45 / 70 90 80 60
Montgomery 49 43 54 44 / 80 90 70 60
Troy 49 41 55 44 / 90 90 80 70
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...95/Castillo
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 041509
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
909 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 848 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
- Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday
with the potential of localized flooding.
- Sustained winds around 20 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots
will be possible through today across the offshore Gulf
waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until
Midnight.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents
tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
A wet cold forecast remains on track with a band of beneficial
rainfall occurring just north of the I-10 corridor this morning.
This band should slowly track south and east towards the coast
over the next few hours with steady rain north of this band
persisting the remainder of the day. Some localized nuisance
flooding will be possible if this band sets up over the coastal
urban areas through the afternoon; however, given ongoing drought
conditions this rain should be primarily beneficial. Best chances
for any issues would be primarily the Mobile, Pensacola metros and
any low lying poor drainage barrier islands this afternoon. BB-8
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Deep west-southwesterly flow will bring abundant moisture into the
region today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values increasing to
1.5- 1.8 inches by this evening. An inverted surface trough will
advance from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf today,
followed by a surface low and warm front lifting north toward the
Florida Panhandle tonight. This surface low will then shift east
of the area Friday morning. Meanwhile, a series of upper level
impulses will traverse the region through the remainder of the
week, resulting in definite precipitation chances (pops) today
into the evening hours, followed by likely to definite pops late
this evening through Saturday. Embedded elevated non-severe
thunderstorms are expected south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor
today into the evening hours, followed by embedded thunderstorms
across much of the forecast area late this evening through around
noon on Friday. Primarily moderate rain is forecast Friday
afternoon through Saturday as the surface low shifts east of the
area. Our entire area is outlooked for a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall on Friday, and for areas southeast of the I-65
corridor on Saturday as there remains a signal for modest
probabilities for the potential of heavy rain. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast for much of the area,
with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. The entire
system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry
period returning through the middle of next week.
Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today will increase to
MODERATE tonight through Friday night, and is expected to drop
back to LOW over the weekend. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
High coverage of rain is expected through the evening hours, then
coverage diminishes from west to east overnight. Predominately
VFR/MVFR conditions decrease to IFR through the early afternoon
hours with LIFR conditions possible. East to northeast winds
around 5 knots increase to 5-10 knots through the morning hours,
with a switch to a north to northeast direction late tonight. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 848 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Moderate to strong northeast to east winds this morning will
increase to strong this afternoon as an inverted surface trough
advances from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. A moderate
onshore flow is likely over the Gulf tonight as a surface low and
warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle, while winds
remain northeasterly to easterly over the bays and sounds. Winds
will then shift northerly on Friday in the wake of the departing
low pressure area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 54 46 56 47 / 100 80 70 70
Pensacola 58 51 61 52 / 90 80 90 80
Destin 59 52 66 53 / 80 80 90 80
Evergreen 52 43 56 44 / 90 90 80 70
Waynesboro 47 40 52 41 / 100 90 60 50
Camden 47 40 52 40 / 90 90 70 50
Crestview 53 45 60 48 / 90 90 90 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
&&
$$
