Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 302337
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
537 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
expected across central Alabama through Tuesday.
- Widespread freezing temperatures will return Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning.
- Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
upcoming week with an additional opportunity for significant
rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
Did some tweaks on the PoPs to slow down a few hours of the
exiting of the rain in the southeast. There is a pretty defined
back-edge and that should clear the forecast area by Midnight at
least. Colder air filters in behind the line, but could be
modified a touch if clouds hang tough, like models tend to
struggle with. If the clouds do hang on, expected temperatures to
be 2 to 4 degrees above forecast in the north. We could
potentially see some clearing after sunrise before the next
shortwave works in.
16
Previous discussion:
(Through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
The next shortwave trough in the train will dip into the lower MS
valley on Monday, and help induce an inverted trough/surface low
along the Gulf coast. This will begin the overrunning process into
Alabama, with another period of widespread rain expected Monday
and Monday night. While there might be enough lift provided by
synoptic scale and isentropic processes to produce a few rumbles
of thunder, it won't be widespread and certainly shouldn't even
approach strong (let alone severe) levels.
As that system departs the area on Tuesday, the rain will depart
with it, leaving dry and chilly weather for the mid-week period.
Models are starting to converge on a solution regarding the end of
week system, and rain chances have accordingly started to ramp up.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
Low clouds hanging tough behind the line of showers moving through
area. Rain is generally only at MGM and AUO and will be exiting
these areas shortly. Opted to hang on to the lower clouds a touch
longer than model guidance with the stubbornness of cold air
stratus. You can see some clearing to our northwest on satellite,
but you can also see some expansion in MS to the north. Held off
the clearing till generally 12z with another round of low clouds
moving in with after 16z in the west and 19z in the west.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of storm systems will bring at least two waves of rain
to Central Alabama through Tuesday afternoon. RH values will
remain elevated through Tuesday as a more significant system moves
through the region and widespread soaking rainfall is forecast.
Dry weather returns late Tuesday through the mid-week period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 31 51 43 44 / 10 70 100 40
Anniston 35 54 45 45 / 20 70 100 40
Birmingham 36 52 42 44 / 10 70 100 30
Tuscaloosa 35 52 41 44 / 10 70 100 20
Calera 36 55 44 45 / 20 70 100 30
Auburn 44 58 51 51 / 50 60 100 40
Montgomery 46 61 50 51 / 40 60 100 30
Troy 47 62 53 54 / 50 60 100 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 302335
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft
over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.
- A high rip current risk now in effect through Tuesday for the
Northwest Florida Panhandle beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
11.30Z upper air maps show a nearly flat flow in the geo-potential
height field at high levels with a stream of clouds ejecting
eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. In the lower levels and at
the surface, a front was aligned from the OH River Valley, southwest
to across central LA to southern TX. A pre-frontal trof of low
pressure was moving slowly eastward over the western zones where we
see an area of showers. Instability looks to remain limited, with
just showers expected as the frontal approaches/makes passage.
The front makes passage into the northern Gulf tonight but the
flow aloft generally stays southwesterly where the passage of a
series of mid-level impulses support enough lift to maintain small
PoPs, generally 20% or less. Upstream, a positively tilted upper
trof pivots eastward across the Plains Monday with larger scale
lift increasing and overspreading the Lower MS River Valley. At
the surface, it's more complex with northern Gulf front stalling
out Monday where a wave of frontal low pressure begins to form and
then skirts east northeast over the marine area Monday night.
This feature lifts away Tuesday. At the present time, the cool
sector north of the boundary looks to create a more stable
environment over the land zones Monday and Monday night where the
predominant weather mode is more supportive of likely to
categorical showers with a lower end chance of embedded thunder.
Meanwhile, the Gulf waters to perhaps right along the coast
perhaps more across coastal sections of the Northwest FL
Panhandle could see storms more rooted at the surface east and
southeast of the eventual low track where a bit more instability
over-rides a zone of 0-3KM helicity which could support a few
rotating updrafts. At present time considering the low confidence,
the risk for severe storms is too low for anything higher than a
general storm outlook. Will continue to monitor trends. Rain
chances taper to dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday. Dry
conditions continue Wednesday.
Chances of showers and storms return the latter end of the week as
next storm system moves east across the southern Plains. Another
frontal wave of low pressure also expected to move east northeast
out of the western Gulf Friday and across the central Gulf coast
Friday night into Saturday bringing a return to likely to perhaps
categorical rain chances to the area.
Daytime highs sink to well below normal Tuesday through Thursday
before moderating. Overnight lows trend colder through the middle of
the week. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday morning with lows
plummeting into the mid to upper 20's interior and some 10 to 15
degrees below December 3rd normal. 35 to 40 right along the coast.
Lows also gradually moderate the latter half of the week, but
still cool.
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
becoming high Monday night into Tuesday. Rip current risk tapers
to low Wednesday and Thursday. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
An IFR ceiling over interior southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama is expected to spread across the remainder of
the area overnight. The ceiling improves to MVFR during early to
mid morning on Monday then drops back to IFR later in the
afternoon. Mostly isolated patches of rain are possible overnight
into Monday morning, then scattered to numerous showers with some
embedded storms develop Monday afternoon. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
A cold front settles just south of the coastal waters late tonight.
A wave of frontal low pressure moves over area waters late Monday.
Onshore flow increases ahead of the low switching to offshore in the
wake of the low Tuesday morning. Winds and gusts may increase to
border-line small craft advisory criteria Monday night into Tuesday.
Seas building. Winds and seas subside Wednesday. The next storm
system approaching from the west brings an increase in onshore winds
and a build seas by the close of the week. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 49 66 47 59 / 20 70 90 20
Pensacola 56 69 55 64 / 20 70 90 30
Destin 56 69 57 66 / 30 70 90 40
Evergreen 46 65 45 58 / 20 60 100 30
Waynesboro 41 59 38 51 / 20 60 100 20
Camden 43 61 39 51 / 20 60 100 30
Crestview 51 68 52 64 / 20 70 90 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
