al discuss
Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 262013
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
213 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- Clear and colder conditions expected on Thanksgiving Day.
- A rainy pattern should take hold for Saturday night through
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
The transition to a more active weather pattern will continue
through the next 7 day forecast period. Surface high pressure
building into the southeast states will help keep conditions dry
across central Alabama through the Thanksgiving holiday and into
the early weekend. However, a series of upper level shortwave
troughs will bring several waves of showers to our area, most
likely starting Saturday night and lasting as long as Tuesday.
While it won't rain through that entire period, there's likely to
be 2 to 3 waves of showers during that time, totaling another 1
to 2 inches of rain. Instability appears to have no time to really
recover, and chances of thunderstorms through this period are
pretty remote. As for temperatures -- although it will be
decidedly colder than it has been recently, nothing in the models
suggest anything that is vastly out of the ordinary.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
Fog and residual stratus clouds have lifted, and VFR conditions
are now expected across central Alabama terminals through the
next 24 hours. Wind directions should stay pretty much the same
through the period, although wind speeds and gustiness will come
and go.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air will move into the region today, with afternoon RH
values dropping to 35-45 percent. Afternoon RH values will
decrease to 25-35 percent for Thursday through Saturday. Northwest
winds of 10-15 mph are expected on this afternoon, with a
decrease to 7-11 mph for Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 31 51 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
Anniston 32 52 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 34 51 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 34 54 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 32 55 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
Auburn 36 54 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 34 55 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
Troy 35 55 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 261803
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
- Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft across portions of the marine area Wednesday night into
Friday morning.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches Wednesday, then a high risk is anticipated this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
An upper level low will continue to spin over the Great Lakes
region, with the axis of its trough extending through the
Mississippi Valley. Southwest flow persists aloft, helping to stream
mid level cloud cover across the area. With the cloud cover, temps
will only rise a few more degrees, with highs warming into the mid
60s to lower 70s. The axis of the trough will move eastward tonight,
with flow aloft steadily becoming northwesterly by morning.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower 30s over our interior areas
to the lower 40s along the coast. After a cold start to
Thanksgiving, we won't warm up too much, with highs struggling to
rise above 60. The northwesterly flow will persist through the
vertical column, with much drier air filtering across the region.
With high pressure in filtering into the region, expect mild
conditions through the day.
Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday, shifting the
trough into New England. This ridge will weaken quite a bit as it
moves eastward, with flow over the local area becoming zonal Friday
night. At the surface, high pressure will move through the Ohio and
TN Valleys , with surface winds slowly veering to the east. Another
trough will dig into the Plains Saturday night, and surface
cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Central Plains as the
trough ejects from the Rockies. Flow aloft will become
southwestward during the day Saturday, filtering moisture ahead of
the cold front. The trough, weakening with time, will quickly move
into the Great Lakes by Sunday, swinging the cold front through
during the morning hours. Although we'll have some southwesterly
flow head of the front, moisture will still remain limited and much
of the forcing will be well to the north. So, this will really
amount to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, with chances
decreasing further east.
The front will generally stall in the vicinity of the area on
Monday, as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Meanwhile, a third trough
will dig into the Desert Southwest on Monday and quickly move to the
east, exiting the region on Wednesday. The stalled front will lift
northward Monday night, with warm advection showers possible during
the predawn hours, followed by more numerous showers during the day
Tuesday as the cold front moves through. The airmass will remain
relatively stable through the period, with limited moisture return
to overcome the dry and cold airmass currently in place. With this
being the third trough of the period, moisture will at least be more
present to warrant higher chances of rain than with the system on
Sunday. Regardless, not anticipating much in the way of impacts at
this point, at least over land.
For anyone traveling to the beach for the holiday, there is a
moderate risk for rip currents today and we'll be back into the High
risk over the weekend. So remember to check the local beach flags
and local conditions before heading out. /73
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds of
10 to 15 knots and gusty today will east to 5 to 10 knots tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
A moderate to strong offshore flow will persist through Thursday
morning. The offshore flow diminishes somewhat on Thursday then
strengthens mainly over the open Gulf waters Thursday night. A
northeasterly flow develops on Friday then becomes southeasterly on
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the
marine area Wednesday night then tapers to over the 20-60 nm
portion for late Thursday morning through Friday morning. May need
to consider adding the near shore waters to the Small Craft
Advisory late Thursday night into early Friday morning. /73
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 72 43 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 74 45 62 42 / 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 69 35 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 65 34 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 65 33 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 73 36 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Thursday for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
