al discuss
Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 242338
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
538 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
through Tuesday. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe
thunderstorms with hazards including gusty winds, hail, and
perhaps a brief tornado.
- Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.
- Rain chances return Sunday and may persist for a couple of days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
The leading edge of the shortwave is moving through northwestern
MS right now and will slowly work toward western Alabama this
evening. We could see some light rain in the northwest as early as
5 to 6 pm, but it is going to take quite a bit to overcome the dry
air in place right now. Better rain chances after 9 pm in the
northwest. Overall not much in a change in the thought process of
the development for the event. SPC has increased the area to a
slight (level 2 out of 5) chance of severe weather. Still looks
like a 2 wave set up with a pre-dawn event moving northeast
through the area and exiting the northwest by early morning. The
second wave will develop near the I-20 corridor late morning/early
afternoon. Amount of convection really will depend on the amount
of clouds and what instability can be realized during the
afternoon.
16
Previous discussion:
(Through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
Tuesday's rainy and stormy weather:
A shortwave trough located to our west as of early this morning is
forecast to quickly scoot by tonight and be in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday as it becomes
increasingly ill-defined. This will leave us without much in the way
of upper-level support/forcing as showers and thunderstorms affect
central Alabama late tonight through Tuesday; however, with broad
southwesterly jet stream flow arriving and persisting, sheared wind
profiles will be in place with weak to moderate instability
developing during the daytime hours on Tuesday. This setup could
produce a couple severe thunderstorms.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms to our west today are projected
to arrive to northwest Alabama as early as around midnight and
continue their eastward progression during the overnight hours.
While forecast soundings show a nicely sheared wind profile and
strengthening low-level jet, surface-based instability is shown
to be nil with weak instability aloft. So, much of this activity
will be characterized by downpours and rumbles of thunder.
Considering the upper trough will be at its most conducive
proximity at any point during this event, a low severe risk could
occur along the southern fringe of the activity if sufficient
surface-based instability along the northward-advancing warm front
makes it in time. Should this occur, gusty winds, hail, and a
brief tornado are the potential hazards. This low likelihood
scenario seems to favor counties in the vicinity of Demopolis.
Through Tuesday, we are expected to transition to a speed shear
setup as surface and low-level flow veers. The low-level jet is
also shown to weaken a bit through the day. While ensemble data
show weak to moderate instability developing, the lack of
appreciable upper-level support, and relatively weak frontal
forcing, will temper the severe threat associated with the
multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms. Even so, it is
plausible that a couple severe thunderstorms could manifest given
other environmental parameters (shear, instability). Gusty winds
and hail are the primary hazards, with a lesser potential for a
brief tornado due to the degradation of the low-level flow. All
of this activity should be out of here by early Wednesday morning.
Late week into the weekend:
High pressure begins to build into the region on Wednesday and
will be in control Thursday and Friday. Dry weather is forecast
along with cold mornings and cool afternoons. Thanksgiving Day is
looking nice!
High pressure shifts to the east on Saturday with our next trough
on its approach to the region. The evolution of a broad troughing
pattern with a series of impulses could result in a few days
worth of shower and thunderstorm chances starting on Sunday.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate after 06Z as showers move
into the region. MVFR/IFR cigs are likely across all terminals and
will persist through the day. Continued with the TEMPO groups for
TSRA through the morning hours as our first round of activity
moves through. There will be a brief lull in thunderstorms during
the early afternoon hours before a second round arrives. Opted
for TSRA TEMPO groups starting at 20Z and continuing through the
end of this TAF cycle. In addition, winds will increase through
the day with gusts around 20 knots at times.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect
central Alabama overnight Monday through Tuesday. This activity
will vacate the region by early Wednesday morning with rain-free
weather forecast from the remainder of Wednesday through Saturday.
Additional rain chances return starting Sunday of next week.
There are no concerns with MinRHs through Wednesday. A drier air
mass will be in place Thursday through Saturday with afternoon MinRHs
reaching the 30s for much, if not all, of central Alabama.
Locations near and south of the 80 corridor of south-central
Alabama may slip into the 20s during that stretch. Winds will
be near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20
mph from the south on Tuesday and from the northwest on Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
Record High Temperatures:
November 24:
KEET: 76/2016
KANB: 77/2016
KTCL: 79/1950
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 56 73 52 63 / 60 90 70 10
Anniston 59 73 55 63 / 50 80 90 10
Birmingham 60 73 54 62 / 60 90 70 0
Tuscaloosa 58 75 52 63 / 60 90 50 0
Calera 58 75 52 65 / 50 90 80 0
Auburn 61 76 60 68 / 30 60 90 10
Montgomery 60 79 58 68 / 30 60 90 10
Troy 61 79 58 70 / 20 40 90 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/Castillo
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 242328
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
528 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather across the
area from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
- Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft across the marine area mid to late week.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
A shortwave currently located from Kansas into western Texas will
pivot east northeast through tonight with the southern portion of
the wave providing a glancing blow to our area. It appears that
this wave will provide just enough lift to result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development across southeast MS in the
predawn hours and moving into AL/NW FL after 7am through early
afternoon. Deep layer wind fields will be supportive of strong to
severe storms by the predawn hours with 0-6km bulk shear
increasing to 40-45 kt. 0-1km SRH is forecast to increase to
150-250 m2/s2 with curved low level hodographs aided by the
retreating warm front. These wind fields will be supportive of
strong to severe storms, but the big question is how much
instability will be present. Through sunrise, the highest
probability of seeing SBCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg will be
across the southern half of the area with probabilities quickly
increasing through the entire area by noon. Given that deep layer
forcing will likely peak by 7am and then gradually decrease (as
the shortwave moves away from the area), it is uncertain on just
how well all the parameters will line up. The main takeaway is
that we will have an atmosphere that is overall supportive of
isolated severe storms through the morning hours, but the extent
of the threat will be likely be limited due to the severe
parameters being slightly out of phase. Any severe storm that can
organize will be capable of producing localized damaging wind
gusts and a tornado. SPC now as much of the northern half of the
area in a Slight Risk of severe weather with a Marginal Risk
elsewhere.
Even though the aforementioned shortwave will be moving away from
the area in the afternoon and evening hours, the larger longwave
trough will push a cold front through the area Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. While deep layer forcing will be weak,
model guidance continues to indicate isolated to scattered storm
development along and just ahead of the front. These storms will
move through our area late Tuesday afternoon through the evening,
likely exiting by midnight-2am at the latest. 0-6km shear will
remain supportive of organized storms. However, the low level flow
will become more veered with time, lessening any tornado risk by
the afternoon/evening. Given ample instability ahead of the front
along with the favorable bulk shear, we cannot rule out isolated
strong to severe storms, with the main limiting factor being the
lack of more significant upper level forcing. The primary hazard
from these storms will be localized damaging wind gusts and
quarter size hail.
Much drier and colder air will move into the region Wednesday
through the end of the week. Northern portions of the area will
likely see a freeze by early Friday morning. A freeze is also
possible closer to the I-10 corridor as the latest NBM guidance is
showing a 30-50% chance of reaching 32 degrees Friday morning.
The weekend forecast is highly uncertain, especially for Sunday.
What is certain is that numerous shortwaves will move southeast
out of the northeast Pacific and northwest Canada into a longwave
trough over the western and central United States. The big
question is how quickly does this energy move eastward or does
much of this energy get held back, helping to amplify a trough
over southwestern states. This all determines how quick return
flow sets up and our next front approaches. Ensembles have yet to
cluster around a particular scenario. For now, the forecast will
reflect rain chances returning by Sunday, but this is very low
confidence. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Generally VFR flight category at present gives way to widespread
MVFR to IFR ceilings as we head into the late evening and
overnight hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms begin to
spread across the area from west to east prior to daybreak,
lasting through the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Storms
could be strong to severe with the potential for damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. An MVFR ceiling is expected to
persist through the day Tuesday. Winds will remain out of the
southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots tonight, becoming 10 to 15
knots Tuesday with gusts to near 20 knots at times. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
A moderate onshore flow will develop later today into tonight
ahead of an approaching storm system from the west. A cold front
will push through the coastal waters Wednesday morning, with a
moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the
front and persisting through Friday. Winds will become more
easterly by Saturday, but still in the moderate to strong range,
as high pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic states. Seas will
build to 4-6 ft offshore by Thursday/Friday and persist into
Saturday. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 79 59 72 / 20 50 50 10
Pensacola 67 78 65 73 / 20 40 70 10
Destin 67 77 66 75 / 30 30 80 20
Evergreen 60 80 57 71 / 20 60 90 10
Waynesboro 60 78 52 66 / 40 70 60 10
Camden 58 78 55 66 / 20 70 80 10
Crestview 61 80 61 74 / 20 30 80 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
