va discuss
Office: AKQ
FXUS61 KAKQ 291041
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
641 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast through
midweek with a ridge remaining overhead through the week. Well above
normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak
cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with
scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Precipitation
chances increase this weekend as another cold front approaches the
area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Near record high temperatures today.
A strong upper level ridge is in place from Florida into the OH
Valley with sfc high pressure anchored off the SE US coast. Cirrus
early this morning dissipate by mid morning with mostly sunny skies
expected today apart from some fair weather CU. Temps as of 630
AM ranged from mid-upper 50s in rural locations to the lower 60s
for most. Dry and hot today with SW winds 5-10 mph N and 10-15
mph S. Highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to around 90F for
most and mid- upper 80s SW. Record highs today are generally in
the 90s apart from 89F at SBY (see climate section below for
more information). As such, most areas will be a few degrees shy
of records except SBY which may reach or exceed the daily
record high. Mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s SW to the
low-mid 60s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Well above normal temperatures Tuesday.
-Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday with a cold front
passage.
Aloft, a ridge weakens Tue and Wed as a shortwave moves through. At
the surface, a weak area of low pressure moves E through the Mid
Atlantic and off the coast Tue into early Wed with high pressure
building in behind it. This pushes a weak cold front through the
area late Tue night into Wed. A few isolated showers/storms are
possible across the Piedmont Tue afternoon/evening with the
shortwave. Temps will once again be well above normal on Tue with
highs in the upper 80s for most. SBY may once again reach or exceed
the daily record high (see climate section below for more
information).
PoPs increase Wed morning into Wed afternoon as scattered
showers/storms develop along and behind the cold front moving
through the area. PoPs have trended higher (35-55%) with the best
chance for rain across SE VA/NE NC where around ~0.25" of rain is
possible. The rain ends by Wed evening with dry weather expected Wed
night. Highs Wed will be largely dependent upon timing of the
front/rain with a faster FROPA allowing for warmer temps in interior
portions of the FA. For now, have highs mainly in the lower 80s
inland (locally mid 80s) and upper 70s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Above normal temperatures inland continue through the weekend.
-Trending cooler along the coast with onshore flow.
-Scattered showers/storms are possible Saturday and Sunday ahead of
a cold front.
Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with
above normal temps expected inland. At the sfc, high pressure builds
E of the area Thu into Fri with onshore flow everywhere Thu and
along the coast Fri. This will keep temps cooler along the coast and
warmer inland. Highs in the mid 80s W to the upper 60s to near 70F E
Thu and mid 80s W to mid 70s E Fri (coolest along the Atlantic
beaches of the Eastern Shore). Additionally, with high pressure
overhead, dry weather is expected both days apart from a low chance
for an isolated shower/storm across the Piedmont Fri evening/night.
A cold front approaches from the W Sat into Sun, slowing/stalling
once it reaches the local area. As such, the weekend looks unsettled
with scattered showers/storms possible both Sat and Sun (45-50% PoPs
Sat and 35-40% PoPs Sun). Shower/storm chances continue even into
Mon with 25-35% PoPs. Given widespread cloud cover and scattered
convection, highs will be cooler (but still mild) this weekend.
Highs in the 70s NE to lower 80s for most Sat, mid 70s NE to around
80F SW Sun, and mid-upper 70s NE to the lower 80s SW Mon. Lows
remain in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period with mainly
clear skies outside of some cirrus this morning and a few fair
weather CU this afternoon. Clouds clear this evening with some
cirrus moving back in from the W late tonight. SW winds 5-10 kt
(slightly higher near the coast) early this morning increase to
~10 kt later this morning with a few 15-20 kt gusts expected
across SE terminals from late morning through the afternoon.
Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
tonight through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight
chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher (~30%)
chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on Wednesday
at all of the terminals. Very brief flight restrictions are
likely in any tstm. Dry Thu-Fri.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period.
Early this morning, high pressure is centered off of the Carolinas.
Winds are generally out of the SW and running around 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet out 20 nm), and
waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at the
mouth). High pressure will remain centered close to its current
location through today before gradually sliding further off the
southeast US coast on Tuesday. Winds will continue to average around
5 to 15 knots out of the SW today through tonight. A cold front
approaches the waters later Tuesday, crossing the waters Wednesday
morning. S to SW winds will increase slightly ahead of the front
(~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters)
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, but are expected to remain
sub-SCA. Seas increase due to the stronger S winds, with seas
approaching 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape Charles
Light. Winds shift to the W and then NNW behind the front Wednesday
morning and seas will quickly diminish. Generally light onshore flow
is then expected later Wednesday into Friday. Another front
potentially approaches the waters late week into this weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:
4/29 4/30
RIC 94/1974 93/1974
ORF 92/1974 93/1988
SBY 89/1974 86/2017
ECG 90/1974 90/1974
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...
Office: RNK
FXUS61 KRNK 291036
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
636 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in dry weather and unseasonably warm
temperatures today, then a low pressure system will then push a
cold front through the region on Tuesday, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the middle of the week. Some shower and thunderstorm
potential continues for parts of the area Wednesday, and again
Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Unseasonably warm today
- Slowed down arrival time of precipitation
Overall enough sunshine with scattered mid clouds and
stratocumulus in the afternoon for above normal temperatures
today. Grand Ensemble and Ensemble GFS keep temperatures today
below 90 degrees, with the exception of Buckingham County. But
highs today will still be around the record for this date. See
climate section below.
Cloud cover will increase from the west late tonight. Have
slowed down the onset time of rain and lowered the probability
of precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...
Key Points:
1. Above normal temperatures
2. Showers and some storms on Tuesday
3. Lingering isolated showers on Wednesday
4. Dry for Thursday
A look at the 28 April 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows a shortwave trough crossing the area on Tuesday.
Wednesday into Thursday this wave heads east into the Atlantic while
an upper level ridge is centered over our region. At the surface,
Tuesday into Tuesday night, a cold front crosses our region. On
Wednesday, the front is slow to exit eastern sections of the area,
all the while high pressure builds over the Plains States. On
Thursday, the front moves into the Western Atlantic while a ridge
builds over the Lower Ohio Valley.
Output from the 28 Apr 12Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures around +12C over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Thursday, those numbers are slightly higher around
+14C to +16C, which touches the low end of the 90 to 97.5 percentile
of the thirty-year climatology. Precipitable Water values on Tuesday
will average 1.00 to 1.25 inches Tuesday, around or a little
over 0.75 inch on Wednesday and Thursday.
The above scenario places Tuesday with the best chance of showers
and perhaps a few storms, lingering into Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, with the front still near the area, mainly eastern parts
of the region. Return of high pressure on Thursday should mean a
return to dry weather for the area. Temperatures will be above
normal for this time of year with Thursday likely the warmest of the
three days.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Monday...
Key Points:
1. Slightly cooler temperatures but still a bit above normal
2. Chance of showers and storms each day with Saturday having the
greatest probability.
A look at the 28 April 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows the axis of an upper level ridge shifting east of the
region in response to a strong trough moving through the Northern
and Central Plains states. Saturday the axis of the upper trough
moves closer to our region, and then crosses the Appalachians on
Sunday. At the surface, low pressure and its associated cold front
cross the Great Lakes region on Friday. By Saturday, the front is
over our region. On Sunday, the Saturday system will be east of the
region with weak ridging over the area. Another low pressure center
is expected to be moving across Ontario/Quebec. The axis of this
low/trough will be approaching the area from the west.
Output from the 28 Apr 12Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures are expected to range from +12 to +13C
across the area Friday through Sunday. Precipitable Water values on
Friday will average a little over 1.00 inch Friday, around 1.00 to
1.25 inches Saturday and around 1.00 inch Sunday.
The above scenario offers increasing chance of showers/storms on
Friday from west to east as the ridge shifts east and a central US
trough heads east. There should be good coverage of showers and
storms Saturday as the front crosses. On Sunday, while the cold
front is expected to be to our east, the passage of the upper trough
and its steeper lapse rates aloft and daytime heating should continue
the chance of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will be a little
cooler as compared to mid-week, but still slightly on the mild side
of normal.
Confidence in this portion of the forecast is on the low side of
moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period.
Fog had formed in the New River and Greenbrier River Valleys as
seen in the Night Fog satellite images. There may be patchy
MVFR to IFR fog at KLWB and KBCB until 13Z/9AM.
Few-sct diurnal stratocumulus will develop by early afternoon
with bases 3-5 kft.
Expecting a south to southwest wind today. A few gusts up to 20
knots are possible this afternoon.
Above average confidence for ceiling and wind. Average
confidence for visibility today and tonight and the extent of
fog this morning.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
NW winds arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday
with TSRA and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
will be possible again on Wednesday as the front exits the
area.
Thursday is forecast to be VFR and dry.
The next cold front and probability of precipitation arrive in
the area on Friday. This brings the potential for showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...
Record highs for April 29
Bluefield, WV....86 in 2017 Forecast high 80
Danville, VA.....91 in 1981 Forecast high 87
Lynchburg, VA....88 in 1974 Forecast high 88
Roanoke, VA......89 in 1944 Forecast high 89
Blacksburg, VA...86 in 2017 Forecast high 83
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AB/RCS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/RCS
CLIMATE...AMS
Office: LWX
FXUS61 KLWX 290724
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
324 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures for late April are expected through
the middle of the week as high pressure sits off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. High
pressure briefly returns Thursday. Another cold front arrives
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep ridging across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and western Atlantic
Ocean will produce the hottest temps of the week this afternoon.
Expect highs to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, with upper 70s to
low 80s in the mountains. Dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s
keep the heat index below 95. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible late afternoon and evening in the Potomac Highlands and
Shenandoah Valley. This is due to upslope winds taking advantage of
just enough instability, in addition to deep mixing expected today.
A shower/storm or two could develop east of the Blue Ridge, but
coverage and confidence is too low to include more than a 10pct
chance of rain. Shower/storm activity quickly diminish after sunset,
with all activity dissipating by late evening.
The new NWS Experimental HeatRisk has most of the area under a
Moderate Risk for heat-related impacts today. This is due to back
days of well above normal warmth, and less relief at night due to
mild temperatures, as compared to what is normal for late April
(low/mid 70s for highs, and upper 40s to low 50s for lows). This
level of heat this early in the season could cause impacts to heat-
sensitive populations, including those outdoors and without adequate
cooling/hydration. Additional information about HeatRisk can be
found at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk.
Expect warm temps in the 70s to low 80s this evening, and mild
overnight lows in the 60s for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge aloft moves east Tuesday as an upper trough and associated
cold front approach from the west. The latest models indicate a
slower moving trough that reaches the area Tuesday afternoon, and
finally moving east of the area Wednesday night.
This is going to generate a couple rounds of showers and storms
across the area, beginning Tuesday afternoon as a cold front crosses
the area. Scattered to widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms develop Tuesday early afternoon west of the Blue
Ridge, pushing east of the Blue Ridge late afternoon into the
evening. Most shower/storm activity dissipates by late evening,
though isolated showers will be possible through the overnight.
Come Wednesday morning, the main upper trough is forecast to be east
of the Blue Ridge and the cold front east of the area. A reinforcing
upper trough quickly crosses the area Wednesday, helping to produce
scattered showers, mostly along/east of I-81. Some instability
present east of the Blue Ridge should allow some thunderstorm
activity in the afternoon. The entire system moves east of the area
by Wednesday evening as dry conditions return.
The prospects for severe storms on Tuesday continue to be low given
low instability and very weak shear. If any strong storms do
develop, they are most likely to occur west of the Blue Ridge
Tuesday afternoon. Any strong storm will be capable of producing
wind gusts of 40-50mph, in addition to frequent lightning strikes.
Well above normal temperatures continue through mid week as highs
reach the mid to upper 80s Tuesday, and low to mid 80s Wednesday.
Very mild Tuesday night lows in the low to mid 60s, cooling slightly
to the mid to upper 50s Wednesday night behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a weak frontal passage Wednesday, strong ridging builds over
the East Thursday and holds through the end of the week. The ridge
pattern begins to break down Sunday as a weakening southern stream
disturbance approaches from the west. A slow moving and decaying
frontal zone will attempt to cross the area early next week bringing
the threat of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Moisture looks
plentiful, but both forcing and instability look weak to support any
significant threat of either severe wx or flooding.
By Monday, the front appears to push far enough south to limit PoPs,
but treating this like a summer front, when models are too fast in
pushing fronts through the area.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight as high pressure over
the region brings mostly dry and hot conditions. A few showers and
storms are possible around MRB late this afternoon, though coverage
is too low to include in TAF at this time.
A cold front will cross the area Tuesday afternoon and evening,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to all terminals. Some
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and
lightning strikes, as well as brief periods of reduced visibility.
Most convection dissipates Tuesday evening, though some shower
activity could linger across the area Tuesday night.
A second reinforcing upper trough moves across the area Wednesday,
causing scattered showers to develop. Some thunderstorms are also
possible Wednesday afternoon east of the Blue Ridge. This activity
quickly moves east of the area by Wednesday evening.
Outside of shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday.
No sig weather is expected Thu or Fri.
&&
.MARINE...
Favorable marine conditions likely today through Tuesday morning as
high pressure brings mostly dry and warm conditions to the local
waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday late afternoon to
evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots or
greater and lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed
as these storms cross the waters. Most of the shower and storm
activity dissipates by late Tuesday evening.
Southerly channeling is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead
of the front, which could produce a period of SCA conditions in the
open waters of the Chesapeake Bay.
Winds are forecast to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday.
SCA conditions possible Friday into the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near-record to record warmth is likely this afternoon. Below is
a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and the year
the record was set.
Apr 29th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 91F (2017+) 92F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 89F (2017) 91F
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1951) 90F
Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (1974) 88F
Charlottesville (CHO)* 92F (1974) 90F
Hagerstown (HGR)* 90F (1974) 88F
Annapolis (NAK)* 92F (1974) 85F
+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted
year is the most recent
* denotes sites where Record Event Reports (RERs) are not issued
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...KRR/LFR
MARINE...KRR/LFR
CLIMATE...LWX
