tx discuss
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 020756
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
256 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A cold front was pushing southward and was just about to move into
the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. This front will likely
push through the southern Texas Panhandle by mid morning.
Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front this
morning, mainly across the eastern Panhandles. A few thunderstorms
may be possible across the far southeast Texas Panhandle late
tonight as upslope flow combines with low level warm air
advection.
On Friday, winds return to the south and southeast. This will
advect moist air back into the region behind the cold front. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible through the day given the low
level moisture and warm air advection.
Friday night, a cold front moves through and this could spark
additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. An
upper level short wave trough moving across the Panhandles will also
aide in the lift department.
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Saturday
in the post frontal environment. Plus and additional short wave
trough is expected to move across. Showers and thunderstorm chances
continue Saturday night into Sunday as yet another short wave trough
moves across.
The upper level flow then increases from the southwest Sunday night
into Monday as a strong upper level closed low moves from the
northern Rockies onto the northern high Plains. This low will have a
negatively tilted trough extending southward from it that will swing
across the Panhandles Monday morning. Southwest winds will respond
to the upper level short wave and dry air will sweep across the
Panhandles on Monday leaving the region POP free, except for the far
southeast Texas Panhandle where some moist air may hang on long
enough for some thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon.
The forecast then remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday as a fast
zonal flow aloft spreads across the Panhandles.
High temperatures are expected to be around to just below average
for today through Sunday. Temperatures will then rebound to above
normal again for Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
A cold front will push south across the TAF sites this morning.
North winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with higher gusts will be
expected. Winds will slowly decrease by late this afternoon to 10
to 15 knots and they will turn more northeast and east.
MVFR cigs are expected at AMA before the front and right after the
front. MVFR cigs may be possible at GUY behind the front, but
confidence is not high enough to add those cigs in a this point.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 77 50 73 52 / 20 10 30 30
Beaver OK 77 45 77 49 / 10 10 30 60
Boise City OK 72 44 75 44 / 0 10 30 30
Borger TX 80 52 77 54 / 10 10 40 40
Boys Ranch TX 78 50 77 51 / 0 10 30 30
Canyon TX 77 51 74 52 / 10 10 30 30
Clarendon TX 77 52 71 54 / 0 20 30 30
Dalhart TX 74 45 74 45 / 0 10 30 30
Guymon OK 75 44 75 47 / 0 10 30 50
Hereford TX 79 52 78 52 / 10 10 30 20
Lipscomb TX 77 49 76 53 / 20 10 30 60
Pampa TX 76 51 73 53 / 0 10 30 40
Shamrock TX 77 52 74 55 / 20 10 30 40
Wellington TX 79 54 75 56 / 20 20 40 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15
Office: EWX
FXUS64 KEWX 020823 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
323 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The complex of strong to severe thunderstorms that affected the
northern Hill Country last night into the overnight hours is rapidly
moving away into the HGX and FWD CWAs. Also the potential of heavy
rains is coming to an end as well. However, we will continue with
the Flood Watch for a few more hours to allow flooded waters to
recede.
For the rest of today's forecast:
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
forecast for South Central Texas throughout the day. The Rio Grande
and southern Edwards Plateau areas have better probabilities to stay
dry for the morning hours while locations along and east of Highway
281 have better chances to experience shower and thunderstorm
activity as an upper level short wave over central Texas pushes to
northeast.
There is plenty instability in place across the local area and this
helps for a quick shower or thunderstorm to develop with the heating
of the day. Any shower or thunderstorm that manages to develop has
the potential to become strong to marginally severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the main threats. Also, precipitable water
values are around 1.2 to 1.7 inches, which means that any strong
updraft could produce a heavy downpour in a short period of time.
Cloudy skies are expected to prevail for most of the day with the
exception of the Rio Grande, where partly cloudy skies are forecast
for the mid to late afternoon. Today's highs are forecast to range
from the mid 80s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal
Plains to low and mid 90s along the Rio Grande.
Later tonight, things are expected to stay relatively quiet for the
most part with some isolated showers or a few thunderstorms along
and east of Highway 77.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the local area as the dry-line sits across west Texas and a
weak frontal boundary slowly pushes into central Texas. Friday's
highs range from the mid 80s along and east of Interstate 10 and
Interstate 35 to upper 80s through mid 90s across the southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
HREF members seem to suggest a stormy afternoon Friday to carry over
into the evening for Friday night. The GFS is also a bit more bullish
on convection for Friday night. For this reason have pushed some
areas of the CWA into a chance category for storms, as the WPC QPF
for 00-06Z suggests a robust round of storms rolling off the higher
terrain into the Rio Grande Plains. Repeated rounds of isolated to
scattered convection will keep the stormy narrative lively, but as
has been experienced for much of the spring the better potential has
favored the Hill Country and Central Texas. while there has been
little predictability with the most recent activity, and likely to
remain the case in the short-term, there is perhaps a period from
noon to midnight Saturday, where more organized storm clusters can
generate a cool outflow boundary and potentially spread farther
south for a better coverage across the area. Aside from that the San
Antonio area and areas south of I-10 and east of I-37 look to end up on
the short end again in the need for drought-relieving rains.
Rain chances de-escalate Sunday, and by late Sunday night the
forecast pivots toward a more hot and dry scenario for the work week.
while a weak SW flow pattern aloft will remain over TX, stronger
dynamics over the Central Plains will likely keep a strong inversion
over much of TX with some hot/dry plateau air spilling NE from
Mexico. Thus a dry-line is expected to invade into South Central TX
while the moist sector to the east is expected to be too shallow to
give us a shot at convection.
Monday should be a transition day to the hot weather but some areas
may remain fairly mild and humid from the recent rains. Then the heat
ramps up Tuesday and continues through at least Wednesday. Some
triple digit heat is projected for the Rio Grande Plains by Tuesday,
and the central and eastern counties could get into the mid-upper 90s
by Wednesday. Any lingering humidity could combine with this heat for
a low-end Heat Advisory potential.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving across the
Hill Country while pushing to the northeast. Some activity at the
tail end of this feature could clip KAUS within the next hour or two.
Therefore, included a TEMPO group with -TSRA for KAUS. In addition,
low cigs at IFR category are forecast overnight into the middle of
the morning for KAUS. Similar situation apply for KSAT and KSSF where
IFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight through at least 18Z
Thursday. MVFR cigs return sometime in the mid to late afternoon.
KDRT sits at MVFR but around dawn lowering to IFR. MVFR cigs return
late morning with cigs lifting to VFR by 17Z. Southeasterly flow 5 to
10 knots are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 83 71 84 71 / 50 20 20 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 70 84 70 / 60 20 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 71 87 71 / 40 10 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 82 69 84 70 / 30 20 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 96 75 96 74 / 10 0 30 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 82 69 83 70 / 50 20 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 85 70 89 70 / 10 10 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 84 70 84 70 / 50 20 20 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 72 83 72 / 60 20 20 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 84 72 86 71 / 20 10 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 86 73 87 72 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bastrop-Blanco-Burnet-
Caldwell-Fayette-Hays-Lee-Llano-Travis-Williamson.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...18
Aviation...17
Office: BRO
FXUS64 KBRO 020606 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
106 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
The short-term forecast period will continue to feature a steady
state pattern, that being warm, humid and rain-free with continued
onshore flow. Morning and nighttime hours will continue to see
overcast skies while afternoon hours will see some breaks in the
overcast.
Daytime highs will be slightly warmer than normal while nighttime
lows will be warmer than normal. For tonight and Thursday night,
overnight lows are progged to be in the mid to upper 70s (some +4-8F
degrees above average). The high temperature on Thursday is expected
to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s (some +2-3F degrees above average)
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Shortwave energy, upslope flow and strong to extreme instability
will produce isolated to scattered convection initially across the
Sierra Madre in the late afternoon and evening on both Fri and
Sat. Most of this convection is expected to wane significantly
before reaching the Rio Grande Plains or Upper Valley given the
increasing cap strength and lack of forcing across our CWA. For
now, will maintain slight chance POPs for just Zapata county for
these Fri and Sat time periods. Otherwise, strong capping within
the 915-630 mb layer will keep our convective chances close to nil
through most of, if not all, of the extended forecast period.
The main weather story will be the building heat next week. A
broad strengthening mid/upper ridge axis will continue to expand
its grip and influence on our CWA next week. The result will be
increasing subsidence, even drier conditions, and rising temps.
Diminishing cloud cover will further add to the building heat. H8
temps by Wed will be 25-28 degrees Celsius! Widespread daytime
highs in the 90s through the weekend will gradually be replaced
with 100s during the Mon-Wed timeframe across inland areas,
especially west of I-69C. An expanding Major HeatRisk area by Tue
and Wed will prevail across areas west of I-69C. As for Heat
Indices, we could be looking at marginal heat advisories for this
same geographical area by Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds will diminish to light
levels around sunset Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies and no rainfall
are also likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Tonight through Thursday night...Moderate winds may yield
periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.
Conditions are expected to range between a moderate chop to choppy
at the bay. Meanwhile, moderate seas are expected to continue
with wave heights between 4-6 feet. Elevated seas will result in a
MODERATE RISK for rip currents at the local beaches through
Thursday.
Friday through Wednesday...Moderate to occasionally strong
southeast winds will prevail through most of the period across the
coastal waters. Small craft caution conditions will be the
dominant hazard. However, at times in the afternoon and evening,
there will be marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions expected
for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters given the enhanced
pressure and thermal gradients early next week. The rip current
risk will remain moderate to occasionally high throughout the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 76 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 78 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 96 76 94 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 82 76 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Office: CRP
FXUS64 KCRP 020725
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A largely uneventful forecast is expected during the short term
period.
Regional radar imagery indicates that deep convection has
remained well north of San Antonio tonight. Therefore, the
likelihood of thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads early
this morning is very low (less than 20%). The only other low
chance for precipitation will be Friday afternoon over La Salle
and Webb Counties. This low chance will be dependent on whether
there will be sufficient forcing from mesoscale boundaries to
support the development of robust updrafts.
Warm temperatures and abundant low level moisture will result in
maximum apparent temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s
today and Friday. These conditions will be a precursor to the
increasing risk for heat related impacts next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Key Messages:
- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the long term period as
moisture will be confined to a shallow surface layer...that will
gradually get even more shallow as we head into next week. For
Saturday, there is still the potential for an isolated storm coming
out of the Sierra Madre and across into the Rio Grande Plains,
however chances are low (10-20%). Beyond Saturday, winds above
the surface shifting more to the south and southwest will bring
drier conditions in the lower levels to leave only moisture
confined to only within a couple thousand feet of the
surface...and in the upper levels (maintaining some high cloud
cover). This drier layer will also result in warming temperatures
through next week. We'll start the week on Monday with highs
around 100 west and in the upper 80s and lower 90s east. We'll
quickly warm above 100 west through mid- week with highs
approaching 110 by Thursday. If this verifies it would be our
first high temperatures above 100 for the season. The risk of heat
related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week,
especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected
west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat
index values will likely top 100 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Storms have developed well north of the area this evening.
However, there is abundant moisture in place across S TX that
could interact with the tail end of the upper disturbance that is
moving across Central TX overnight. There is a very low chance for
convection to impact VCT during the early morning hours.
Otherwise, MVFR conditions are expected across S TX overnight
through Thursday morning. Brief VFR conditions are expected by
early to mid afternoon across VCT, CRP, and ALI, then quickly
becoming MVFR once again by early Thursday evening. MVFR
conditions are forecast to persist across COT through much of the
TAF period, while VFR conditions are expected across LRD by
Thursday mid afternoon and then persisting through Thursday
evening. Surface winds are progged to remain 5-15kt overnight
before becoming gusty by mid to late Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon with gusts between 20-25kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
weekend and into early next week. The persistent onshore flow will
result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 87 76 89 75 / 10 10 10 10
Victoria 87 73 87 73 / 30 10 10 10
Laredo 95 75 98 75 / 0 0 20 10
Alice 90 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
Rockport 85 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 92 75 97 75 / 10 10 20 10
Kingsville 88 75 90 74 / 10 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 85 77 86 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH/91
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...TE
Office: EPZ
FXUS64 KEPZ 020533
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1133 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
A fairly persistent large scale weather pattern across the
Southwestern U.S. will keep a fetch of very dry air over the
Borderland for the rest of the week and through the weekend. Day
to day temperatures will be quite steady, and average warmer than
normal. Skies will typically be mostly clear, with plenty of
sunshine. After a breezy day today, winds will slacken, with only
occasional breezes in the afternoons through Friday, but then
pick back up for the weekend and early next week. The primary
concern, due to weather, over the next seven days will be
compounding warmth and dryness, leading to drying of vegetation
across the region, and fire weather conditions elevating to
critical this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
A low-amplitude progressive wavy pattern will persist over the
Western U.S. during this 7-day forecast period. This means
generally a quasi-zonal pattern with passing minor ridges and
troughs. With the pattern favoring flat, the troughs, with their
associated moisture and dynamics will pass well to our north. For
our forecast area, with will mean a continuation of the our
stretch or precip-less weather. We have almost no precip, of any
kind, in our forecast (with the exception of the east slopes of
the SACs for Sunday). A deep dry environment will mean few clouds,
plenty of sunshine, dry surface layers (low RH), warmer than
normal temperatures, and deep mixing. Daily max/min temps should
run pretty consistent from day to day, with only 2-4 degree
changes through the period. Winds will slacken off after this
evening as the currently upper trough passing to our north,
crosses the Rockies, in the the Northern and Central Plains. We
will see a 3 day stretch of generally light winds (for the season)
with light afternoon breezes.
Friday night through Saturday morning a front pushes in from the
Plains over our NE and E zones. This does back in some Gulf
moisture into the SACS, but it will be very shallow, and stay
only briefly into the day on Saturday. We do have minor POPs and
precip in for the eastern areas of the SACs and Guad escarpment of
Otero Co., but the really don't believe we will see any realistic
risk of showers or storms.
The next Pacific trough approaches Sunday, and that will be
reflected with and upward trend in winds as we see stronger winds
aloft mix down in tighter mid-level gradients, and good mix down,
and some lee surface troughing through central NM into Chihuahua,
MX. Sunday could bring winds requiring a Wind Advisory. Monday and
Tuesday follow with very similar winds that will border on
additional Wind Advisories. There will almost certainly be RFWs
posted for these three days, given RH in the 5-10 percent range.
The associated trough swings through our area on Monday, but it
looks to pass with insufficient moisture to produce any precip.
Beyond Tuesday, it appears we settle back into a flat zonal
pattern through late week, with more seasonally dry and warm
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Other than
FEW250 from time to time, SKC expected. W winds near 10kts expected
through the AM, except for KELP which remains gusty due to downslope
flow until daybreak. Gusts return for all TAF sites for the
afternoon up to 20kts before subsiding late in the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
Fire weather season is in full swing, and the next 7 days ahead
will ramp up those conditions from traditional, to elevated, to
critical. We will continue with a deep and dry westerly flow
pattern that ensures our region will remain warm and dry.
The large-scale pattern will be low in amplitude, with the storm
track positioned well north. This means only small changes in
weather elements day to day. Temperatures will be largely steady,
with only small day to day changes. Each day should have mild
nighttime temps, and warmer than normal temps. Our RH will be
pathetically low, overnight recoveries will be poor and struggle
to rise above 30-35%. Daily minRH will be largely below 10%, and
as low as 5% for most afternoons. The warm and dry air will mean
deep instability and good mixing aloft. Winds will be moderate to
low for the season through Saturday, with generally light
overnights and mornings, and marginally, occasionally breezy
afternoons.
Sunday through Tuesday will be the time frame that we need to be
focused on as a slow passing Pacific trough moves across the
Western U.S. We will see increasing winds, while still being
exceedingly dry. We are pretty certain these 3 days will be Red
Flag Warning days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 61 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 56 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 54 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 51 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 40 60 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 53 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 46 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 50 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 50 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 58 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 52 86 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 55 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 53 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 58 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 53 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 59 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 49 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 50 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 55 83 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 52 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 44 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 43 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 45 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 42 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 44 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 48 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 48 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 47 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 50 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 48 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 47 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner
Office: HGX
FXUS64 KHGX 020834
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The bulk of the widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight have re-
mained mostly north of a line from Lake Somerville to Lake Livingston.
Unfortunately, this means that a lot of the same locations that got a
bunch of rains earlier this week are getting yet another round. These
storms (the initial development here along with the western activity,
which is finally moving into the CWA), are expected to organize a bit
more before finally tracking off to the east by mid to late morning.
However, in its wake the associated frontal/outlflow/surface boundary
will be left lingering across the FA. And so, with some daytime heat-
ing, we could see more development later this afternoon. We could get
another break from the storms by this evening, but hi-res models seem
to be indicating yet another round of widespread showers and thunder-
storms for late tonight through early Fri morning. Current models are
tracking these storms more across the central and southern CWA during
this period.
So, with this in mind, have extended the Flood Watch through Fri aft-
ernoon. This watch will likely be tweaked by later shifts...mainly to
include counties south of the current watch. If all this goes accord-
ing to the plan, we may see improving conditions (that is, decreasing
POPs) by late Fri afternoon/evening. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
On Saturday afternoon, chance for showers and thunderstorms are
still on the table, mainly for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region as another disturbance passes just to the north of the
region. Although there is some capping in place during the morning
hours, forecast sounding show it decreasing in the afternoon, and
with fairly good instability, we could see some isolated to
scattered activity developing over the aforementioned region. A
similar set up is progged for Sunday, with chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north of I-10. We might even have the
combination of locally driven storms along with the storms
developing over Central Texas moving into our northern counties.
It is important to note that with all the expected rainfall for
today and Friday, some of these locations may have very saturated
soils along with some ongoing localized area flooding and river
flooding. Therefore, any additional heavy rainfall could result in
additional minor flooding along with further rises in creeks, small
streams, and rivers. Remember to never pass through flooded
roadways.
Things will be settling down more next week as mid to upper level
ridging begins to build over Southeast Texas. Fairly tranquil
conditions can be expected Monday into Wednesday but conditions will
be warming up each day and highs will be reaching the upper 80s to
low 90s with some locations possibly in the mid 90s by midweek. PWs
will range between 1.3 to 1.8 inches and with dewpoints mainly in
the low 70s, conditions will feel even warmer as well as muggy. In
fact, might even see heat indices in the low 100s by midweek.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Showers/thunderstorms have developed across our northern counties and
this activity has stayed in this region so far tonight. Further south,
are are getting reports of light rain. Hi-res models are keeping with
the idea of the storms further west eventually moving east across our
CWA overnight into Thurs morning (generally from a 10-15Z time frame).
There is a potential for another round of SH/TSRAs by Thurs afternoon
with conditions finally improving by tomorrow evening. Of note, there
are indications that yet another round of storms are possible by late
Thurs night/early Fri morning. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds will prevail through much of the
forecast period. Winds today may reach Advisory levels at times, but
are expected to be mainly between 15-20 knots. For the next several
days, seas will be between 4 and 6 feet over the offshore waters and
between 2 and 5 feet over the nearshore waters. Bays may be slightly
choppy at times. Also, strong rip currents along the Gulf facing
beaches could develop at times.
There is a chance for showers and storms, some could become strong,
through Friday. During the weekend, much of the rainfall is expected
to remain inland. Tranquil weather conditions expected next week as
mid to upper level ridging builds over the region.
24
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas,
particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points continue to remain at or above flood
stage as of this morning:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and
upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged
river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your local
officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the
new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 70 82 70 / 90 60 50 10
Houston (IAH) 84 72 82 72 / 50 50 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 79 73 / 40 50 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-300-313.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
MARINE...24
Office: LUB
FXUS64 KLUB 020820
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
320 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A welcome respite from severe storms awaits much of the forecast
area today with the exception found roughly along and east of the
Highway 83 corridor where a cold front and dryline intersection
later today could fuel a few severe storms. Until then, we'll be
contending with moist E-SE upslope flow this morning thanks to a
large mesohigh in the wake of an MCS still churning over N TX as of
2 AM. This upslope flow will maintain some stratus over the region
until a cold front drives south later this morning and scours this
away. Clearing may struggle in our eastern column of counties where
deeper moisture within a theta-E axis ahead of a dryline may serve
as an obstacle to the front and effectively slow its progress. Any
low clouds here should still scatter out by midday while allowing
for MLCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg with minimal CIN. Sufficient deep
layer shear of 30-35 knots within weakly cyclonic SW flow should
help storms remain organized with some supercells once again on the
table. However, there is more uncertainty than yesterday with storm
development as some recent hi-res models are accelerating FROPA
through most of the Rolling Plains by the afternoon which would shut
the door on our 20-30 PoPs. This scenario will be revisited through
the day and adjusted accordingly.
As the cold front stalls this evening to our south, N winds will
veer E and tug richer moisture westward onto the Caprock. This
upslope regime looks favorable for stratus development overnight and
potentially some fog. Various soundings exhibit stratus depths
increasing to 1000-2000 feet thick which could be enough for drizzle
at times, while higher aloft there exists a bit of ECAPE for thunder
should any elevated ascent materialize. Kept PoPs very low after
midnight and favoring our NE zones where moist isentropic ascent is
a bit more evident than elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Post-frontal easterly upslope flow will continue through the day on
Friday which will result in a continued increase in low level
moisture. However, guidance is still not in agreement regarding
the magnitude of this moisture return, with some models
considerably more agressive in bringing a notable theta-e ridge
northward into our area by early afternoon. There is also a
growing signal of deepening surface troughing over eastern NM
providing a dry downslope component near the TX/NM state line on
Friday afternoon, and should this occur, a diffuse dryline may set
up somewhere over the forecast area during the afternoon hours on
Friday. A subset of synoptic models as well as some hi-res
solutions do depict scattered thunderstorms developing along this
feature Friday afternoon and evening, though capping and weak
forcing aloft may limit coverage. Nevertheless, the signal is
strong enough to maintain PoPs Friday afternoon and evening with
highest chances along and east of I-27 with a severe storm or two
not out of the question either.
Attention then turns to the potential for more widespread showers
and storms Saturday into Sunday with locally heavy rainfall also
looking like a good bet over portions of the region. Early
Saturday, initially west-southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen
and back to a more southwesterly direction as a well-defined
mid/upper level disturbance transits overhead. At the surface, a
cold front will pass southward through the region early in the day
before washing out over the southern South Plains or Permian
Basin region during the afternoon. The presence of the remnant
frontal boundary combined with robust low level upslope flow and
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to result in
the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms
late Saturday through early Sunday. Periods of heavy rainfall
appear possible particularly late Saturday night off the Caprock
where rich deep layer moisture (PWATs near 200 percent of normal)
intersect with more coherent forcing associated with the difluent
region of a southern stream jet streak. Overall, ensemble
consensus suggests rainfall totals in excess of one inch will be
possible over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle, with
lesser amounts on the Caprock.
Showers and storms will decrease in coverage from west to east
throughout the day on Sunday, although PoPs do remain elevated off
the Caprock for most of the day where moist upslope flow persists
for longest. A fairly potent upper low will then pass eastward
over the Intermountain West on Monday, but the track of this low
still appears to be too far north to support widespread additional
storm chances locally, except for the SE TX Panhandle and eastern
Rolling Plains where a a couple of storms may be possible Monday
afternoon before moisture exits eastward. Instead, most of the
region is expected to see warm, dry, and breezy conditions return
on Monday and persist through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
MVFR stratus will continue to expand overnight on moist E-SE
upslope winds, with CDS more likely to see this lower to IFR
before daybreak. A FROPA and N wind shift later this morning
will scour these clouds away and restore VFR, although this could
prove a tougher task at CDS where moisture will linger. Not
impossible that a few TS could redevelop near CDS during the
afternoon along the front.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93
Office: MAF
FXUS64 KMAF 020734
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Once again, efficient moisture return and convective outflow from
yesterday's storms has shoved the dryline back up against the western
high terrain. However, the dryline will mix all the way into the
western Low Rolling Plains and San Angelo's area this afternoon
thanks to an upper trough ejecting from the Rockies into the north-
central Plains. This keeps our weather significantly quieter than
yesterday with most of the area just seeing a typical sunny, hot,
and dry day. On the heels of this trough, it will help to push a
cold front into the area today, and could start to nose into the
northern Permian Basin in the late afternoon/early evening time
frame. How this front evolves Thursday evening/night will play a
large role in how Friday shakes out. That being said, the front and
dryline interactions this evening will likely fire off a few storms,
with a storm or two possible for Scurry/Mitchell counties. More
importantly, the convective outflow from these storms would help
push the front into our area and many of the high resolution models
take the front all the way to the Pecos Valley.
With uncertainty in how far the front makes it and how much it
retreats/mixes north/east Friday, there is also a fair amount of
uncertainty in both high temperatures (in the Permian Basin) and
where any storms set up. For now, the thinking is a few more storms
could fire off along the dryline or front, primarily across the far
eastern Permian Basin. More details will likely come once it's
determined what tonight's front will do.
-Munyan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A potentially active weekend is ahead of us with the threat of more
severe weather and flooding for portions of the area. Deep low level
moisture will have returned to the area by Saturday morning with
dewpoints >60F east of the higher terrain. At the same time, a cold
front will be making its way south across the TX PH reaching our CWA
boundary with LUB around mid morning. The front will slow its
forward progress with daytime heating and height falls ahead of an
approaching shortwave. As we reach peak heating by mid afternoon
Saturday thunderstorms will develop along and behind the cold front.
It's still a little far out in time to know where the front will be,
but models are suggesting convective initiation somewhere across the
Permian Basin. There will be plenty of instability and shear for
storms to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threats. PWATs will be abnormally high for early May suggesting a
threat for heavy rain and flooding, especially if storms train along
the front.
We could see some lingering clouds and showers Sunday keep
tempertures down to around normal. Zonal flow aloft along with
several storm systems passing to our north next week will mean a
return to very dry and hot conditions. It's looking more likely we
could see temperatures in the 100s across the Trans Pecos and Big
Bend by mid week. Break out the sunscreen and swimsuits, summer is
about here!
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Southerly return flow has overtaken all terminals and should
persist through the overnight hours. This flow has brought low
clouds in already to MAF, and guidance suggests MAF will be the
only terminal to see the clouds. For now, they are at low MVFR
CIGs but could dip into IFR levels at times throughout the night.
All other sites remain VFR through the period. West winds take
over shortly after sunrise and persist throughout the day. A cold
front noses into the area by the end of the period which is set to
bring a east- northeast wind shift.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 93 61 87 62 / 0 10 20 20
Carlsbad 90 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 96 65 92 67 / 0 0 20 10
Fort Stockton 93 59 92 65 / 0 0 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 80 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 88 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 10
Marfa 84 49 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 92 60 88 64 / 0 0 10 10
Odessa 92 60 90 65 / 0 0 10 10
Wink 93 57 94 65 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16
Office: SJT
FXUS64 KSJT 020544
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Evening...
Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across far west
Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline
during peak heating this afternoon, with storms moving eastward
across the area during the evening hours. Initial storms are
expected to be discrete, with supercells likely, then storms
should become more linear with time as they push east across the
area. Latest meso-analysis shows SBCAPES between 3000-4000 J/kg,
which will support intense updrafts with any storms that develop.
Effective shear is currently around 25 kts, but is expected to
increase this evening as a shortwave approaches from the west.
This will result in more widespread thunderstorm development later
this evening. Very strong instability, coupled with steep lapse
rates will support large to very large hail with any supercells
initially, along with a tornado threat. Storms should gradually
become more outflow dominant as they move eastward with time,
with damaging winds becoming more of a concern. Storms should
exit far southeast counties between 2 and 3 AM, although some
lingering showers may remain for a bit longer across eastern
portions of the forecast area.
Thunderstorms will possible again Thursday afternoon and evening,
as the dryline sets of across central sections and a weak cold
front enters the Big Country during the late afternoon hours. In
addition, several outflow boundaries will likely be present.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along any of these
features tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Very strong
instability will occur east of the dryline and south of the
front, along with deep layer shear between 35 and 40 kts. These
parameters will support severe storms capable of producing large
to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The
greatest risk for severe storms tomorrow will be across the
eastern two thirds of the Big Country, eastern portions of the
Concho Valley and the Heartland counties.
As for temperatures, expect lows tonight in the mid and upper
60s, with highs Thursday mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
However, a few readings in the mid 90s will be possible across
the western Concho Valley west of the dryline.
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our
central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big
Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening
hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern
counties. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible during the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of
the dryline. Most of this activity should be confined to our
eastern counties. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
hazards.
Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big
Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower
90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday,
although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the remnant cold front in the region.
Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest
flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher
rain chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler,
generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are
expected next week with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday
will be in the low to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the
approaching the upper 90s in some locations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
TSRA have moved east of all TAF sites late this evening. MVFR
ceilings have already begun to move in behind the convection, and
will continue to spread north and northwest across all sites in
the next few hours. MVFR to, at times, IFR ceilings will continue
through the late morning hours, and potentially into the afternoon
at KJCT and KBBD. Although there is another chance for isolated to
scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon/evening, confidence is low in
there being enough coverage to mention in our TAFs at this time.
Winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 62 85 64 / 10 20 30 30
San Angelo 94 65 91 64 / 10 0 30 20
Junction 90 69 91 67 / 10 10 20 20
Brownwood 86 66 84 64 / 20 20 30 30
Sweetwater 90 62 85 64 / 10 10 30 30
Ozona 92 65 89 64 / 10 0 30 20
Brady 87 67 85 66 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...20
Office: FWD
FXUS64 KFWD 020717
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Morning/
A gradually organizing line of thunderstorms with embedded bowing
segments is pushing through the western fringes of our area of
responsibility at the time of writing this discussion, though a
weakening trend has taken shape over the last hour or so. As this
line of storms evolves, our damaging wind threat may increase
through the early morning hours. Our greatest potential for severe
weather will exist west of the I-35 corridor overnight tonight,
although instances of severe weather will be possible into the
morning hours as this line of storms moves through. Our main
concerns with severe weather potential continues to include
damaging winds and flash flooding, with lower potential for large
hail and isolated tornadoes. Despite the rather progressive nature
of this convective system, areas across South and Central Texas
will see continued exacerbation of flooding issues with the
current Flood Watch still set to last through this afternoon.
Much of this activity will have exited our area to the east by
this afternoon. However, this window of quiet weather will be
short-lived as our next round of dry line convection fires off
once again to our west. This activity will also be supported by a
passing shortwave aloft, which will provide more large-scale
ascent. This could very well play out in a similar fashion to
tonight's activity, with organizing clusters of thunderstorms
pushing in across portions of Central Texas through this evening
into the early morning hours on Friday. Of course the environment
will be supportive of thunderstorms across portions of North Texas
as well, and severe weather will once again be on deck. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, with a low-
end tornado threat as well. Continual waves of heavy rainfall will
likely continue the flash flooding concern across Central Texas
as well. To echo our discussions as of late, please continue to
monitor the weather over the next 12 to 24 hours as our active
stretch of mid-spring weather persists in our forecast.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /New/
/Friday through Wednesday/
Friday through Sunday will remain unsettled with multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The good news
is that the overall severe weather threat will be low. The passage
of an upper trough across the Central Plains Thursday night will
send a weak cold front southward Friday. The front is progged to move
only partially through North Texas before retreating back to the
north Friday afternoon and evening. Lift supplied by the front, in
combination with larger scale lift from the passage of a subtle
shortwave, will result in scattered showers and storms. Our
confidence in the movement of the front is low so we will keep
PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range both Friday and Friday evening.
There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Friday
when the initial shortwave passes to the east and front
temporarily moves north of the Red River. The front will return on
Saturday once another shortwave in the northern branch of the jet
stream pushes through the Central Plains. This secondary push
will be stronger than the first, sending the front deeper into the
CWA. Lift along the front will bring another chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday night into Sunday
morning when a shortwave rotates across the region. Once the
shortwave passes to the east, storms will temporarily end but will
return again on Monday with the approach of the dryline from the
west and yet another shortwave. We will keep PoPs on Monday low
for now since a cap of warm air will likely be in place. Once the
early week shortwave moves to the east, the upper pattern will
become more zonal which should limit convection, but with plenty
of low level moisture in place, any subtle disturbance could
produce a shower or storm.
Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be near seasonal normals
with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will return to about the western half of the
forecast areas Tuesday and Wednesday pushing afternoon highs into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/
Concerns...MVFR Ceilings and Thunderstorm Potential Overnight.
A line of storms is currently racing across our coverage area to
the west of the D10 TAF sites, with ongoing thunderstorms over
Waco at the time of writing this discussion. These thunderstorms
will push through the TAF sites around the 08-11z timeframe. As
this moves through, expect a brief one to two hour window of
westerly winds that could gust upwards of 35 knots. These will be
short-lived and will quickly return light and southerly once this
activity passes off to our east through Thursday morning.
On top of this, MVFR ceilings will linger through much of the
period with a brief window of clearing and VFR conditions on
Thursday afternoon. There is low end potential for IFR ceilings
across all TAF sites, but current confidence only allows for an
inclusion in the Waco TAF. MVFR ceilings will return across all
TAF sites as we move into late Thursday night. Additional
potential for thunderstorms will also exist through early Friday
morning, but this will be further assessed in the 12z package.
Reeves
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 68 81 69 81 / 50 50 30 30 50
Waco 80 69 81 69 81 / 70 30 30 20 40
Paris 77 65 81 66 79 / 80 50 40 20 50
Denton 81 64 81 66 80 / 40 40 30 30 50
McKinney 80 66 81 67 80 / 50 50 40 30 50
Dallas 82 68 83 69 82 / 60 50 30 20 50
Terrell 80 67 81 67 81 / 60 50 40 20 50
Corsicana 81 69 83 69 82 / 70 40 40 20 40
Temple 81 69 81 69 81 / 60 30 20 20 30
Mineral Wells 84 66 82 66 82 / 30 40 30 30 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-
142>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
