pa discuss
Office: CTP
FXUS61 KCTP 050803
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
403 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-Rain tapers to showers to close out the first weekend of May
-Warmer and drier on Monday; increasingly unsettled Tue-Fri
-Late week cooling trend continues through Mother's Day weekend
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Soggy start today with 850mb jet driving light/mdt rain from
southwest to northeast across CPA. Expect the steadier rain to
shift to the east with time giving way to a more showery regime
for later today through tonight. CAD pattern with a moist east
southeast upslope flow and ridgetop fog should reign supreme
over the northeastern quadrant of the CWA with highs stuck in
the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, it looks like the western and
southwestern portions of the area will break into the warm
sector with cloud breaks allowing temps to reach the 65-70F
range. The warmer temps will fuel enough CAPE to mention a
t-storm mainly along/west of US219 with a MRGL SWO (1/5) from
the SPC still clipping Warren County.
Rather mild tonight as a weak cold front presses southeast from
Lake Erie. Some lingering showers are possible especially near
the front. Guidance remains bullish on low clouds and fog
development overnight which may become locally dense in spots
into early Monday morning. Fcst lows are +10-15F above climo for
early May in the low 50s to near 60F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A.M. low clouds and fog should give way to some sun by Monday
afternoon especially across the northern half of CPA as high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes directs drier/lower pwat
air into the region. Following a rather cool and damp weekend,
temperatures are forecast to trend much warmer with fcst maxes
getting back into the 70-80F range. The aforementioned frontal
boundary settling near the MD line will maintain a low chance
of showers/t-storms over the southern tier into Monday night.
Expect some fog again Monday night with lows ranging from the
mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warm and generally dry
conditions are likely Tuesday. However, a warm front lifting out
of the Ohio Valley could result in increasing clouds with a PM
shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. The bulk of
medium range guidance supports a very warm Wednesday with
scattered convection, as the area briefly breaks into the warm
sector south of a weak low tracking across upstate NY. A round
of convection may accompany the trailing cold front. Ensemble
mean pre-frontal 850mb temps around 16C suggests max temps as
high as the mid to upper 80s are possible over the Lower Susq
Valley.
The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms
appears to be on Thursday associated with a deepening upstream
trough and wave of low pressure riding along the stalled cold
front just south of PA. The surface low and deepest moisture is
progged to shift east of the area by Thursday night. However,
falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support
scattered, diurnally-driven convection Friday and Saturday,
along with a downward trend in temperatures. EPS mean 850mb
temps by Saturday are only around 3C, which is supportive of
highs ranging from just the mid 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A moist southeast flow preceding a slow-moving warm front in the
Ohio Valley will produce low cigs and rain across the forecast
area through at least Sunday morning. Guidance points to
deteriorating conditions overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs
by early Sunday morning. LIFR cigs are most likely where the
southeast flow is forced to ascend the higher terrain of Central
PA. Strengthening south-southwest winds aloft will result in
marginal LLWS overnight into Sunday morning, with the best
chance of LLWS criteria being met across the northern tier of
the state.
Little improvement in flying conditions is expected over most
of Central PA Sunday, as a moist southeast flow off of the
Atlantic persists. However, model soundings indicate some modest
improvement is possible late in the day along and west of the
spine of the Alleghenies, prior to the development of scattered
convection during the evening hours. The highest chance for TSRA
is at JST and BFD, mainly between 22z Sun and 03z Mon.
Areas of fog are likely Sunday night into early Monday as drier
air works in aloft, but ample moisture remains trapped at the
sfc beneath a thermal inversion. Most if not all airfields will
trend VFR by Mon afternoon after any early fog dissipates.
Outlook...
Mon...AM low cigs/fog likely. Stray shower late.
Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible, mainly Southern PA. Isold
PM tsra impacts possible Western PA.
Wed...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns.
Thu...Rain/low cigs possible. PM tsra impacts possible
southwest PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Bauco
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Colbert
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 051053
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
653 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north through the region today, and then
a cold front works its way through the region late Monday and
Monday night. This boundary will become stationary over the area
through the mid-week period. A series of disturbances will
track along this boundary through the middle of the week. A
stronger area of low pressure moves through the region on
Thursday, followed by a cold front on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning as of 7 AM. No changes made.
Previous full discussion follows...
A cloudy, showery, and dreary Sunday morning is ongoing. Weak
warm advection overruning a very moist and cool marine layer
will result in showers continuing for most of today. Forcing
will be maximized over the Lehigh Valley, where the bulk of the
showers will be through the morning. As a shortwave moves over
the region, the area of showers will push east through the
afternoon and evening. Precipitation will be rather light
overall and more of a nuisance than anything. Outside of
showers, it will be a cloudy and cool day yet again.
Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, though as a warm
front tries to push north, some areas in lower Delmarva will
climb into the upper 60s and perhaps get near/above 70.
The bulk of the rain moves out late this evening, but a cold
front approaching tonight will reinforce lift and generate some
further showers. Some of the model soundings show some elevated
instability, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder late tonight,
mainly within Delmarva and the southern half of New Jersey
(basically along and south of that aformentioned warm front).
Not expecting any severe weather or anything like that though.
Some patchy fog is possible with a moist boundary layer. Fog
chances are maximized mainly north and west of the Philadelphia
metro (basically north of the warm front). It will be a mild
night, with lows in the mid to upper 50s/low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be west of the area Monday morning. Southerly
flow ahead of that front will usher an increasingly humid
airmass into the region with surface dewpoints rising into the
60s. Areas of fog will develop in the morning, and then will
lift and dissipate by midday or so. The cold front passes
through the region Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Some
shortwave energy passing through the region will help kick off
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
the southern portions of the forecast area.
The front becomes stationary south of the region Monday night
through Tuesday night. High pressure builds north of the region,
and an onshore flow develops, bringing somewhat cooler and drier
air down into the region. Another disturbance approaches from
the west late Tuesday and Tuesday night, touching off another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A prolonged period of unsettled weather on tap for the latter
part of the new week. A series of frontal boundaries and weak
low pressure systems will pass through the region during this
time. The first system is an area of low pressure that will pass
north of New Jersey Wednesday morning, and this will drag a
cold front through the region late in the day and at night. Some
rain is possible in the morning, and then another round of
showers and mostly isolated thunderstorms will affect the area
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.
The next area of low pressure will organize and develop over
the Midwest, and a warm front will develop out ahead of this
system and lift towards the local area late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning. This will touch off some more
showers and isolated thunderstorms during this time. A secondary
low will form over the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the primary low,
and this low works its way across the region Thursday afternoon
and Thursday night. More widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will affect the area during this time.
The primary low passes north of the region on Friday with yet
another round of showers as a cold front passes through the
region.
Temperatures during the period will start out warm with highs
in the 80s on Wednesday,and then temperatures will trend closer
to normal on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...IFR to start for most, though ceilings could lift a
little bit to MVFR especially at KMIV/KACY for the afternoon.
Most of the guidance has these lifting ceilings falling just
short of the I-95 corridor, but cannot rule out a brief period
of MVFR there. More steady showers should move through the
Lehigh Valley, keeping IFR conditions there for most of the day,
with some visibility restrictions. Winds out of the southeast
around 10 kt. Low confidence.
Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions with low clouds and patchy fog.
South/southeast wind around 5 kt. High confidence in at least
IFR. Low confidence in how low CIGs/VSBYs drop.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Unsettled weather on tap for most of
the new week. Overall, VFR during the day, but sub-VFR
conditions in SHRA from time to time. Nighttime sub-VFR
conditions in fog/stratus also expected. Best chances for
widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA will be Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight as seas will be 2 to 4
feet with winds out of the east/southeast around 10-20 kt. Periods
of showers expected, with a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms early
Monday morning.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...A prolonged period of sub-SCA
conditions. VSBY restrictions in fog throughout the week,
especially at night. Best chances for widespread showers on
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS
Office: PBZ
FXUS61 KPBZ 050756
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
356 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Intermittent rain and a few storms are possible today.
Temperatures will moderate as southerly flow returns. A break in
the widespread rain is possible Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers continue today.
- Strong afternoon thunderstorms possible with the passage of a
cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A weak shortwave trough will move across the Upper Ohio Valley
today. This wave will weaken and push the east coast ridge out
over the Atlantic. A surface cold front, trailing the upper
wave, will cross the region today, reaching the eastern edge of
the forecast area by early evening. The main moisture plume,
that has been parked over the region for the last couple of
days, will drift eastward with another weak shortwave behind the
exiting ridge. This decrease in deep moisture, and loss of
upper level support, should allow for a brief respite in the
widespread showers. As the aforementioned cold front moves
eastward across Ohio early this afternoon, showers and a few
storms will redevelop and accompany the boundary as it clears
the rest of the forecast area. SPC continues to advertise a
marginal risk for severe storms today. The main driver in this
assessment is the rapid destabilization of the atmosphere ahead
of the front. However, latest model data continues to show a
weak sheared environment, which will work against updraft
enhancement, and plenty of cloud cover that will hinder day time
heating. Additionally, weak warm air advection aloft may also
work to cap the atmosphere. There could be some breaks in the
cloud cover this afternoon with the warm advection, but will
there be enough time to further destabilize the atmosphere?
With the surface flow veering to the south then southwest, and
the warm air advection aloft, temperatures will again rise
above seasonal averages.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Break in the rain possible Monday for a large portion of the
region.
- Temperatures remain above normal Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave trough will dig into portions of the Upper Midwest
Monday morning. This will promote modest height rises over the
region. Weak cold air advection behind today's cold front will
spread somewhat drier air over the area. This should allow for a
break in the rain and some decrease in cloud cover Monday
afternoon. A weak shortwave moving eastward around the main
trough, could bring the risk for isolated to scattered showers
over locations mainly south of I-70.
Temperatures will cool a bit on Monday, but still remain above
normal.
Lots of uncertainty on Tuesday that will depend on the path of a
weakening shortwave trough and the crossing of a surface warm
front. If the trough digs further south, rainfall coverage
would be more focused on the southern half of the forecast area
as the surface boundary would not make as much headway to the
north. If the wave shifts further north and the warm front does
as well, then the showers would do the same. Further
complicating Tuesday is the speed of the wave. A faster exit
could cause modest 500mb height rises during the afternoon.
Latest blended guidance is leaning toward a more northerly and
slower track of the wave, so will ride with that solution.
Temperatures will warm once again on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances continue through the week but more uncertainty
lends to lower confidence.
- Temperatures favored to remain above normal.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An active weather pattern will remain in place for our region,
with decent daily precipitation chances through Friday. Deep-
layer shear will increase as well behind the departing ridge, so
severe weather chances will need to be monitored as well.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Waves of showers will continue on and off through the morning
as weak shortwaves traverse the upper flow. Meager warm
advection aloft and light southeasterly winds have promoted some
lifting to VFR early this morning, primarily for PIT and areas
south. This may begin to fill in again with MVFR/IFR ceilings
closer to sunrise, but uncertainty remains high.
Height rises and diurnal heating will lift area cigs by 15Z and
will result in a brief lull from convective activity. The
passage of a shortwave and associated weak surface cold front
will then create scattered thunderstorm coverage primarily
after 19Z - lingering into the early overnight.
.Outlook...
A moist boundary layer behind the frontal passage and evening
thunderstorms Sunday night likely will lead to widespread
MVFR/IFR restrictions. Some improvements are expected Monday
with influence of high pressure to the north, but shortwave
movement across the TN River Valley may maintain some
restriction/precipitation chances for southern terminals.
The rest of the week will remain active with varying periods of
precipitation and restrictions amid low pressure passage.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/CL
AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier
