Office: TSA
FXUS64 KTSA 290144
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
844 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Scattered strong to severe storms ongoing across far E OK into NW
AR will continue to steadily spread eastward through the evening.
A slow but steady downward trend in both intensity and coverage is
expected after the next few hours as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Until then a continued tornadic risk will remain with
the ongoing tornado watch gradually being cleared from west to
east. Updated forecasts will capture latest storm coverage trends
and watch configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
After an active last few days, the early part of the work week
will provide a brief break, with surface high pressure bringing
dry weather into much of Tuesday. A storm system in the Northern
Plains toward the middle of the week will drag a front southward
toward the Oklahoma/Kansas border, leading to low shower and
thunderstorm chances on Wednesday. More widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday along with a cold front
that is expected to move through the area. Both severe weather and
heavy rain/flooding threats will exist with the Thursday and
Thursday night storms. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue into early next weekend, with a more substantial system
expected toward the end of next weekend along with higher storm
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist across E OK & NW
AR this evening, gradually ending west to east early tonight.
Locations impacted by storms may experience periods of IFR cigs/
vis (low chance for LIFR) as well as strong & erratic winds,
primarily across NW AR this evening. After precip ends, guidance
continues to suggest IFR cigs and fog potential overnight into
Monday morning for much of the region. VFR conditions are expected
to return by Monday afternoon areawide.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 80 59 86 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 61 83 59 87 / 60 0 0 0
MLC 59 83 60 86 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 49 80 54 86 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 57 80 55 85 / 60 0 0 0
BYV 59 78 54 84 / 60 0 0 0
MKO 57 80 57 84 / 40 0 0 0
MIO 54 78 54 84 / 50 0 0 0
F10 56 80 58 84 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 61 81 59 82 / 50 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
072-074>076.
AR...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
Office: OUN
FXUS64 KOUN 282013
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
313 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Though chances remain low at this time, we are watching for the
potential of thunderstorm development this afternoon for areas
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35 from 1 PM through 6 PM.
The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night's
severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over
southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the
vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle.
This could provide sufficient dynamic ascent within this area
this afternoon for storm development, should the atmosphere be
able to recover from last night. There is a trend of some
atmospheric recovery to our south, and given the 12Z model output,
there is some concern that storm development could impact teams
that are currently assisting with search and rescue and post-
event clean up. Guidance indicates moderate instability is
possible with plenty of 0-6 bulk shear which could mainly lead to
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Again, confidence in severe development in this area is very low.
hHowever, the environment may be there if recovery can be
achieved.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Latest radar shows showers have developed over south-central into
east-central Oklahoma with lightning probable shortly with the
shower in Carter County with isothermal reflectivity at -10C at
almost 40 dBZ. SPC mesoanalysis page shows weak to moderate mixed-
layer instability and strong bulk shear (0-6km layer) over this
area. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across this
area but there is high uncertainty as to the strength/severity
given the atmosphere should be worked-over and storms currently
ongoing across central Texas could limit storm potential here.
Nevertheless, there are signals from the CAMS that a few storms
could produce some hail up to quarter-size and damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph. There is a very low tornado threat for an area
along/east of a line from Holdenville to Ada to west of Madill
where low-level shear (0-1km) is prog'd at around 20 to 30 knots
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit our CWA by
early this evening.
Skies are forecast to clear for most of the area tonight with low
temperatures mostly in the 50's. Early tomorrow morning, patchy
fog could develop over parts of south-central to southeastern
Oklahoma and potentially parts of western north Texas. Tomorrow,
mostly sunny skies are forecast with high temperatures in the 70's
and 80's. There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over
northwestern Oklahoma in the afternoon. Any storms that develop
should remain below severe-limits and produce some gusty winds.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
This upcoming week appears to be relatively active pattern with
the potential for severe storms and flash flood on Tuesday
(marginal risk for both), Wednesday (slight risk for both), and
possibly Thursday (slight risk of flash flooding over the
southeast).
By Tuesday, the dryline becomes better defined once again over
the Texas panhandle as a shortwave passes across the north-
central plains and as a cold front approaches from the north. The
greatest dynamic ascent appears to be north of our area and storm
chances remain fairly low for Tuesday.
By Wednesday, a shortwave appears to dig as it nears the Rockies
and there are slightly better rain/storm chances across much of
the area with a slight risk of severe weather and excessive
rainfall.
While we are not outlooked yet for Thursday, the prog'd synoptic
pattern would favor severe weather as a cold front begins to move
through. There remains timing differences on the approaching
upper trough. Highest rain chances of the forecast period occur on
Thursday afternoon with likely POPs east of Hwy 81.
Beyond then, there are daily rain chances with somewhat cooler
temeratures end of next week.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR
ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites
through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR
conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the
day and tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0
Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 81 56 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
Gage OK 76 46 82 57 / 10 0 20 0
Ponca City OK 79 49 78 58 / 40 10 10 10
Durant OK 78 59 83 60 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08
Office: AMA
FXUS64 KAMA 282329
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Latest radar imagery has a few showers and thunderstorms across
northeastern New Mexico, with the best updraft currently west-
southwest of Clayton. CAMs continue to suggest some of these
showers or storms may reach the western Panhandles before
diminishing later this evening, so have slightly expanded PoPs
across the west and northwest. Some thunder has been observed with
some of the cells so have added thunder mentions to the ongoing
forecast as well. After sunset, the thunder threat should greatly
diminish and the coverage of any showers and/or storms should also
decrease. If any storms move into our area, lightning, sporadic
gusty winds, and small hail would be possible with the strongest
updrafts.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to make a run a
the northwest CWA late this afternoon and evening. Most of the
showers and storms should dissipate by sunset, but there is a weak
disturbance that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle that could help
keep some of the activity going overnight. At any rate, not
expecting much precipitation from any showers or storms that would
happen to move across our northern CWA.
Surface winds converge along a trough in the eastern CWA by Monday
afternoon. Surface moisture is not the greatest, but if a well
timed disturbance can move across, then there could be a
thunderstorm or two across the northeast CWA Monday afternoon.
Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 40's. However, there
could be a few upper 30's in the northwest with a few lower 50's in
the southeast. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid
70's in the northwest to the mid 80's in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Warm temperatures expected Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s possible. Thu through Fri are looking to have cooler
behind a frontal passage. Fri being the coolest with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s. Sat may potentially rebound into the
lower 80s once again. Still some uncertainty out in Day 7.
As far as precipitation goes, Wed through Thu morning a dryline
may set up over the area again with many ingredients for a severe
storm potential for the eastern combined Panhandles. This is
looking like only a potential once again, as one ingredient may
still fall short with storms unable to initiate in the first
place. It is still quite early to tell how far west the dryline
will actually be and whether a cap will be in play to minimize
storm production. Have left NBM PoPs in for now with which give 20
to 40 percent to the southeastern third to half of the FA Wed
afternoon. NBM only gives a 10 pop the night before on Tue, this
will have to be monitored as some guidance suggests some possible
thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Tue as
well. Thu storm chances will all depend on the progression of the
front. If the front can move in slower and keep the dryline in the
east longer some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern
Panhandles on Thu as well.
Fri through Sat showers and thunderstorms may be possible also,
depending on the nature and progression of the H5 trough that
brings the initial front on Thu with more CAA on Fri. Some of the
models suggests this initial upper level trough moves off but is
followed by additional shortwave troughs impacting the area late
Fri into the weekend.
36
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. Only exception would be
if a shower or thunderstorm moves over the site in the next few
hours. Confidence is low in that scenario right now but will amend
if confidence increases. Light winds are expected at all sites
around 10 kts or less over the next 24 hours. KDHT may have
sporadic higher winds if a shower or storm moves over the
terminal.
Muscha
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 47 82 51 89 / 10 0 0 0
Beaver OK 44 83 53 93 / 10 10 0 0
Boise City OK 41 77 46 86 / 20 0 0 0
Borger TX 49 86 53 94 / 10 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 45 83 49 91 / 10 0 0 0
Canyon TX 45 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 49 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 41 79 44 88 / 20 0 0 0
Guymon OK 42 80 47 90 / 10 10 0 0
Hereford TX 45 82 50 89 / 10 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 46 83 55 93 / 10 10 0 10
Pampa TX 49 82 53 90 / 10 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 49 83 55 91 / 0 10 0 10
Wellington TX 49 84 55 91 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05
