Office: GYX
FXUS61 KGYX 251541
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1141 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND RAINY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MEMORIAL
DAY BEFORE WE GET SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS. MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN NH AND NW ME ZONES. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS TDA A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES TDA DUE
TO CLOUDS, PRCP AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS 40S
N AND AROUND 50 S.
LOW PRES BEING CAUGHT BY THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S WILL LIFT TO THE
N VERY SLOWLY TDA. LOTS OF MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AROUND THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE OCEAN INTO THE FCST AREA WITH UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
N/MT/FOOTHILL ZONES ENHANCING PRCP AMOUNTS. MODELS DO INDICATE A
DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGIONS WHICH WILL SHUT OFF OR
AT LEAST DIMINISH PRCP FOR AWHILE TDA. 12 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FOR TDA
WILL RANGE FROM 1/4 TO MAYBE 1/2 INCH SRN/COASTAL AREAS AND 1/2 TO
3/4 WITH LOCAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS N/MT/FOOTHILL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DO A LOOP BEFORE FINALLY PULLING AWAY. AS
SFC LOW PULLS AWAY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
COASTAL REGIONS. STEADY RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN SRN NH AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS PSBL IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STRONG BLOCKS UP AND DOWNSTREAM WILL KEEP
LOW AMPLITUDE OMEGA PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR S...AND SOME VERY ARM
AIR MOVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS WE SHIFT INTO MORE NW
FLOW...AND A SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR. SOME SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN
AND ERN ZONE IN THE EVE...BUT THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON MON...THE DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAINLY SUNNY...BUT LOOKS FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW SPKLS
IN THE MTNS DURING MAX HEATING TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
RUNNING BLO NORMAL...BUT WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S IN MOST
PLACES...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
WILL START TO SEE SOME WARMER AIR MOVING IN ON TUE...AS THE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL...WELL
INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...AS MODELS
SUGGESTING IT COMES THROUGH WITH SOME MID-UPR LEVEL FORCING. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WITH MAXES PUSH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MANY SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL
LKLY KEEP THE SHORE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH TNGT THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUE. CHANCE FOR SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS
MAINLY OVER ERN WATERS. MISM1 BUOY SHOWING 30 PLUS KT WITH PEAK
GUST OF 40 KT. WILL FCST OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 WITH WINDS AND
GUSTS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT PUT UP A GLW BUT
WILL CONT THE SCA AS THE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE OCCASIONAL
FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTRW WILL CONT THE SCA THRU TDA FOR
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TNGT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO EASE UP. CONDITIONS, MAINLY SEAS, LIKELY SCA LEVELS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS TNGT AND SUNDAY AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AN SCA FOR
AT LEAST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR
TDA WILL BE TOUGH AS THE SFC LOW DRIFTS N THRU THE OPEN THE
WATERS.
LONG TERM...COULD SEE LINGERING SCA INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT THE
WATERS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY MONDAY...AND GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 12Z THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN 1/2 TO 1 1/2
INCHES ACROSS NRN NH AND NW ME ZONES. HOWEVER...FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS TOTAL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER... 2 TO 3 INCHES
OR MORE. MODELS, RFC AND HPC QPF ALL SHOW ANOTHER INCH OF PRCP
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ECHOES
WITH LGT TO MDT RA AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVY RA ACROSS THIS AREA AS
UPSLOPE SE FLOW ENHANCES LIFT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS GET OVER AN
INCH ...PERHAPS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 1/2 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS WILL PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH THRU 8 AM SUNDAY FOR
THIS AREA.
FOR AREAS TO THE SE QPF WILL BE LESS PER ALL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS PUSHING A DRY SLOT TOWARD THE COAST TDA. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS ALSO SHOW PRPC OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE IS 11.8 FT AT 1158 PM TNGT AT PWM. TIDAL
FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FT. THERE HAS BEEN A SURGE OF 1/4 TO JUST
UNDER 1/2 FT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NOW THAT WINDS ARE FROM
THE N THAT MAY BE LOWERED A BIT...BUT STILL COULD SEE THE TIDE
REACH THE 12 FT BENCHMARK FOR MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ARE THE WAVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...RUNNING 5 FT AT
THE PWM BUOY. WAVE ACTION WILL CREATE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH
EROSION. WILL LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY OR A STATEMENT LATER TDA FOR THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TNGT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007-008-012-013.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
FXUS61 KGYX 251559
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1159 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND RAINY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MEMORIAL
DAY BEFORE WE GET SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS. MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP THIS AFTERNOON SE NH AND
SW/COASTAL ME AND EVEN A BIT FURTHER INLAND PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SOME RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUST HIGH TEMPS TDA BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
LATEST DATA...STILL NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN NH AND NW ME ZONES. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS TDA A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES TDA DUE
TO CLOUDS, PRCP AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS 40S
N AND AROUND 50 S.
LOW PRES BEING CAUGHT BY THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S WILL LIFT TO THE
N VERY SLOWLY TDA. LOTS OF MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AROUND THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE OCEAN INTO THE FCST AREA WITH UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
N/MT/FOOTHILL ZONES ENHANCING PRCP AMOUNTS. MODELS DO INDICATE A
DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGIONS WHICH WILL SHUT OFF OR
AT LEAST DIMINISH PRCP FOR AWHILE TDA. 12 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FOR TDA
WILL RANGE FROM 1/4 TO MAYBE 1/2 INCH SRN/COASTAL AREAS AND 1/2 TO
3/4 WITH LOCAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS N/MT/FOOTHILL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DO A LOOP BEFORE FINALLY PULLING AWAY. AS
SFC LOW PULLS AWAY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
COASTAL REGIONS. STEADY RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN SRN NH AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS PSBL IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STRONG BLOCKS UP AND DOWNSTREAM WILL KEEP
LOW AMPLITUDE OMEGA PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR S...AND SOME VERY ARM
AIR MOVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS WE SHIFT INTO MORE NW
FLOW...AND A SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR. SOME SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN
AND ERN ZONE IN THE EVE...BUT THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON MON...THE DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAINLY SUNNY...BUT LOOKS FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW SPKLS
IN THE MTNS DURING MAX HEATING TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
RUNNING BLO NORMAL...BUT WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S IN MOST
PLACES...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
WILL START TO SEE SOME WARMER AIR MOVING IN ON TUE...AS THE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL...WELL
INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...AS MODELS
SUGGESTING IT COMES THROUGH WITH SOME MID-UPR LEVEL FORCING. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WITH MAXES PUSH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MANY SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL
LKLY KEEP THE SHORE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH TNGT THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUE. CHANCE FOR SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS
MAINLY OVER ERN WATERS. MISM1 BUOY SHOWING 30 PLUS KT WITH PEAK
GUST OF 40 KT. WILL FCST OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 WITH WINDS AND
GUSTS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT PUT UP A GLW BUT
WILL CONT THE SCA AS THE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE OCCASIONAL
FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTRW WILL CONT THE SCA THRU TDA FOR
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TNGT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO EASE UP. CONDITIONS, MAINLY SEAS, LIKELY SCA LEVELS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS TNGT AND SUNDAY AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AN SCA FOR
AT LEAST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR
TDA WILL BE TOUGH AS THE SFC LOW DRIFTS N THRU THE OPEN THE
WATERS.
LONG TERM...COULD SEE LINGERING SCA INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT THE
WATERS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY MONDAY...AND GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 12Z THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN 1/2 TO 1 1/2
INCHES ACROSS NRN NH AND NW ME ZONES. HOWEVER...FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS TOTAL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER... 2 TO 3 INCHES
OR MORE. MODELS, RFC AND HPC QPF ALL SHOW ANOTHER INCH OF PRCP
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ECHOES
WITH LGT TO MDT RA AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVY RA ACROSS THIS AREA AS
UPSLOPE SE FLOW ENHANCES LIFT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS GET OVER AN
INCH ...PERHAPS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 1/2 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS WILL PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH THRU 8 AM SUNDAY FOR
THIS AREA.
FOR AREAS TO THE SE QPF WILL BE LESS PER ALL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS PUSHING A DRY SLOT TOWARD THE COAST TDA. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS ALSO SHOW PRPC OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE IS 11.8 FT AT 1158 PM TNGT AT PWM. TIDAL
FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FT. THERE HAS BEEN A SURGE OF 1/4 TO JUST
UNDER 1/2 FT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NOW THAT WINDS ARE FROM
THE N THAT MAY BE LOWERED A BIT...BUT STILL COULD SEE THE TIDE
REACH THE 12 FT BENCHMARK FOR MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ARE THE WAVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...RUNNING 5 FT AT
THE PWM BUOY. WAVE ACTION WILL CREATE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH
EROSION. WILL LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY OR A STATEMENT LATER TDA FOR THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TNGT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007-008-012-013.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
