Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 030911
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
411 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
The land of MCS's. These disturbances are going all over the lee
side of the Rockies this morning and have been for a while. Another
weakening one is moving up from southern TX this morning with
another area that is starting up this morning over the NW gulf. The
weakening one will help with providing outflows to this new area of
development today. The old 850mb trough near the coast is still
hanging tough although weak and this trough is somewhat mirrored at
the sfc. This will provide an interaface for this activity to begin
developing along today and this should start this morning. This MCS
type feature that develops eastward should collapse by late morning
or around noon spreading a strong outflow in all directions over our
area. This will help get other storms developing as well. But what
it will do is move some moderate to strong winds(wake low) over the
area again. At the moment, this looks to be in the neighborhood of
up to 40mph weakening with time. Several variables do support the
possibility of an isolated severe storm with this MCS today but they
are not at alarming levels. CAPE values are not even close to being
an issue so not a lot of volatility to take advantage of. The
problem is cloud cover that should start to yield overcast skies by
sunrise or after. There is no advective component of CAPE, so it
would have to be through heating. Saturday on the other hand, will
show a bit less activity for our area, this will be due to a cold
front moving south from the high plains causing things to flow
northward including our weak coastal troughiness.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Sunday will see this front to the north stall quick over Oklahoma
and Arkansas with a sfc low and attendant front move along it
dropping another trough(not a synoptic cold front as there is no air
mass diff) into the gulf south. This will help gets sh/ts activated
once again. This front gets sent back north Monday and remains well
north through mid week. Another frontal system will orient along the
plains states meridionally or at leat roughly so. This is the same
as what we have been seeing for the last month, so back to the same
processes that were occurring. There is a hint that a strong arctic
cold front may actually make it to the gulf coast by the end of next
week. The word arctic is a bit midleading as temps would be greatly
modified behind it this time of year and only drop highs from the
upper 80s/low 90s back to low to mid 70s. But that is not the issue
with a frontal system like this, this would be more of a problem
with severe storms and flooding. That is if it even reaches the gulf
coast. But since this is far out on the horizon, we will simply need
to wait it out to see what changes or remains the same.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Mainly IFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning for most areas. This
will lift into VFR levels later this morning. There is enough of a
chance for each terminal to get a TSRA or two today so this will be
timed in the 12z taf set. There could be some low cigs again tonight
mainly north but most should see MVFR to IFR again overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Overall synoptic view will be an onshore flow with light winds.
But today could see another MCS feature get started to the west
and develop along the coast to the east before collapsing by late
morning. This could cause some strong winds to move over the
marine areas as another wake low feature forms today. There is no
indication that this same type of feature will form Saturday so
the light onshore flow should commence. This should be the case
each day through mid next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 79 64 86 65 / 60 30 30 10
BTR 83 69 89 69 / 70 20 20 0
ASD 84 68 87 69 / 40 20 10 0
MSY 83 72 87 72 / 50 20 10 0
GPT 82 70 85 70 / 30 10 10 0
PQL 85 68 87 67 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 030858
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
358 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Convection has begun to redevelop over the last hour in
association with the next in a series of shortwaves working across
the region within the southwesterly flow aloft. Away from the
convection, areas of light fog have developed in response to the
light winds and abundant surface water. Expect this fog to be
disrupted by any approaching convection, but should otherwise
dissipate by 14Z as low level winds increase.
CAMS guidance has done a very poor job depicting convective
evolution over the last 24 hours and the convection currently
ongoing is about three hours earlier than most CAMS were
indicating so nearly all of them are presently being discounted in
favor of broader trends in the first 12 hours. No changes were
made to the ongoing Flash Flood Watch which continues to highlight
the most susceptible areas based on yesterday's rainfall and the
latest flash flood guidance. While forecast QPF totals are not
expected to be nearly as high as was seen yesterday, it's not
going to take much to overwhelm already full catch basins across
Southeast Texas and parts of southwest Louisiana.
Expect convection to lift off to the north by mid afternoon and
largely ending by 22-23Z. Similar to this morning, conditions
should be generally favorable for areas of light fog tonight into
Saturday morning. Another shortwave will pass north of the region
Saturday afternoon potentially initializing isolated to widely
scattered convection across interior parts of Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana, but likely not making as far south as the I-10
corridor.
By Sunday, yet another shortwave will push across the region and
this one looks to be closer to the coast allowing for scattered
convection to develop across much of the region.
Jones
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A drier pattern will offer a reprieve from the rain through much
of the upcoming work week as drier mid and upper level air will
advect into the region. The down side to the drier conditions will
be increasing temperatures with afternoon highs climbing into the
lower 90s across interior Southeast Texas and central Louisiana
and upper 80s closer by Wednesday through the end of the week. In
an airmass more typical of summer, any surge of moisture would
have the potential to produce some diurnally driven afternoon
convection, but these would be isolated and short lived.
Jones
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Not a lot has changed in the thinking as far as the aviation
forecast goes. Low clouds have started to develop with KARA/KLFT
already at MVFR levels, and the other terminals should follow suit
over the next couple of hours.
The next issue will be the potential for redevelopment of shower
activity toward daybreak. With the very moist airmass staying
around and plenty of low level boundaries, nocturnal shower
activity is expected to move in at KBPT by 03/10z then spreading
to the other terminals after 03/13z. Convective activity is
expected to increase during the morning hours as an upper level
disturbance moves toward the area. MVFR to IFR conditions from
the showers and storms. Shower activity is expected to end during
the mid to late afternoon with some VFR conditions possible at the
terminals.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland.
Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small
craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow
and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 79 65 86 66 / 80 20 30 10
LCH 81 70 84 71 / 80 10 10 10
LFT 82 70 86 71 / 80 10 10 0
BPT 82 71 84 72 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>032-141.
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 030656
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
156 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Difficult forecast leads to a low confidence one in the short-
term as shortwaves embedded in dirty southwest flow aloft and a
myriad of convective outflow boundaries are resulting in havoc in
not only the operational deterministic progs but in the HighRes
CAMS as well. Best resort is to go with progs that have
initialized well to current activity which rules out most of the
deterministic progs and/or nearly half the CAMS.
The setup as described above is continued southwest flow aloft as
the longwave trough remains across southern Canada into the
Intermountain West with strong ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard.
This persistent ridging is making for a rather stagnant upper
pattern across the Southern Plains. The development of a nocturnal,
low level jet is helping to sustain convection across E OK
currently with that complex forecast to continue moving south and
east into our northern zones this morning, weakening as it does.
Outflow associated with this disturbance will likely serve as a
focus for renewed convection later today with plenty of diurnal
instability to work with. The HRRR which was followed closely for
this short-term forecast is picking up on an embedded disturbance
moving out of Central Texas later today with convection becoming
numerous mainly near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor of
NE TX and N LA so have therefore oriented pops highest across this
area through the daytime hours, limiting chance pops to our
northwest third overnight in the proximity of yet another weak
disturbance moving towards the I-30 Corridor overnight.
Saturday is another difficult call as our northern zones will likely
be dealing with remnant MCS convection with at least scattered
convection near and south of the I-20 Corridor once again tied
mostly to diurnal heating. The good news is that widespread severe
convection does not appear favorable today through Saturday but
damaging wind gusts an an isolated large hail producing
thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given the relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates in place not to mention the
convective outflow potential. PWATS will remain highest across our
western half as well and relatively slow moving convection will
of course pose a flooding theat as well but again, this should not
be widespread through the short-term.
13
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
By Saturday Night, all eyes will be on a much stronger shortwave
exiting the Tx Hill Country and moving into the Upper/Middle Red
River Valley of N TX/S OK. Scattered convection entering our far
northwest zones late Sat Night should become numerous across most
areas during the day Sunday and once again, these could pose an
isolated severe and/or flash flood threat during the day.
The East Coast ridge axis looks like it may finally pull up anchor
and head offshore to begin the upcoming work week. A vigorous
upper trough that enters to Pacific Northwest on Saturday moves
into the Intermountain West on Sunday and opens up into the
Southern and Central Plains for Monday. Enough upper forcing
should be present across or northern half for scattered convection
on Monday before we lose the upper level support for Tue into
Wed. Followed the NBM pop wise Wed thru Thu but WSW flow aloft
appears to continue and this results in a low confidence forecast
once again as the NBM is not spitting out much in the way of pops
Wed thru Thu and we all know what this flow can bring. NBM is
continuing it's warming trend next week in the form of near 90 to
the lower 90s Wed into Thu and if the drying trend is correct,
this would put afternoon heat indices well into the 90s and even
approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Summer appears to be
starting way to early.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Plenty of disagreement to work with tonight as 00z CAMs have
struggled to promote a collective convective decision across the
airspace through the morning. Currently, thunderstorms are present
west of the airspace, with upper level cirrus associated with the
convection working west to east, and into the airspace. As a
result, have prevailed high level OVC for many, along with any low
level CIGs advertised in area ASOS/AWOS. Plan for now is to not
stray far from the previous TAF package convection through the
morning, and monitor trends through the overnight, with the goal
of adjusting for the 12z package later this morning. Aviation
interests will need to closely monitor overnight trends given how
fluid the forecast is at this time.
RK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 68 85 69 / 60 20 50 30
MLU 81 65 85 67 / 70 20 30 30
DEQ 80 62 81 64 / 50 20 60 50
TXK 81 66 83 67 / 40 20 60 40
ELD 78 63 84 64 / 60 20 40 30
TYR 81 68 82 68 / 60 20 60 50
GGG 81 67 83 68 / 60 20 50 40
LFK 81 68 85 68 / 80 20 40 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53
