ky discuss
Office: JKL
FXUS63 KJKL 280801
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very warm this afternoon. Unseasonable warmth prevails through
the middle of the week.
- Showers arrive Monday night through Tuesday, with a chance for
thunder.
- More showers and storms are expected late this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024
After a seasonably cool start this morning, high temperatures will
soar some eight to ten degrees above normal this afternoon; low 80s.
Our forecast high temperatures are within the 90th percentile of all
forecast guidance which is acceptable given few clouds and a strong
ridge axis overhead. Non-zero chance for some fog in the valleys
tonight due in part to the aforementioned ridge. This ridge begins to
retreat through Monday in response to a trough moving northeast into
the upper Great Lakes. But, dry weather prevails through the day
with high temperatures just a touch warmer than Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024
The 28/00z model suite beginning Monday evening shows a 500H ridge
axis to our east, extending from the Carolinas northward into
Quebec. An associated surface ridge is centered over Bermuda and
another over Quebec. Meanwhile, a 500H trough will be situated to
our west through the Mississippi Valley. This trough is separated by
a col from a deeper trough/low over the the Pacific Northwest. Ahead
of the former trough, there is an ~ 1004 mb low near/over Lake
Superior with an associated cold front extending southward into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.
That cold front will press eastward Monday night and begin to
dissipate while its parent trough aloft lifts northeast and fills.
Rain chances will initially rise across eastern Kentucky on Monday
night/early Tuesday as the front approaches, and then slowly
diminish on Tuesday/Tuesday evening as the decaying boundary passes.
While some thunder is possible, severe weather is not expected due
to insufficient instability and shear. Any cooling of the air mass
behind the front will be brief and minimal as ridging quickly
rebuilds across the Ohio Valley, first at the surface then aloft on
Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the model guidance hints at
convection trying ride into the ridge from the west, but confidence
in this actually occurring is low. In fact, PoPs remain under 15%
until later in the day on Thursday when the next upper level low
ejects onto the Plains, initiating a new low pressure system
tracking from near/over the Oklahoma Panhandle early that morning to
over the Great Lakes late Friday. Another cold front will trail
south and southwest of that low, crossing eastern Kentucky with
additional rain and thunder, highest chances on Friday into
Saturday.
In sensible terms look for May to arrive on a very mild note as the
last of April's showers assuredly yield to May flowers. Those
showers are forecast to become numerous to widespread (70-80%
chance) on Monday night/early Tuesday before gradually declining on
Tuesday/Tuesday evening with the departure of the first cold front.
Some thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is not
expected. Overall rainfall amounts are forecast to generally be one
half inch or less. Clouds will keep temperatures cooler, with highs
generally in the middle 70s, a bit of a cool down following Monday's
highs in the 80s. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, most of
the time looks to feature ample sunshine, and just the slightest
chance for a shower or stray storm. Temperatures once again turn
notably warmer again with daily maximum temperatures in the lower to
middle 80s on Wednesday and middle to upper 80s on Thursday. Shower
and thunder chances return as the second cold front nears late
Thursday and Thursday night, becoming likely to numerous on Friday
and Saturday. As the front moves through, temperatures will once
again decline back into the 70s for highs on Saturday. Nighttime
lows should mainly range in the middle 50 to middle 60s through the
period.&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024
Existing TAFs were in great shape; few to no changes needed. Right
of high pressure off the Southeast US coast remains our driver of
local weather conditions. High clouds pass by in the vicinity of
robust thunderstorms over the mid-Mississippi river valley.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...BROWN
Office: LMK
FXUS63 KLMK 281048
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warm and breezy weather continues, with gusts of 20-25 mph out
of the southwest at times on today.
* Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
A few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall
will be possible.
* Additional showers and thunderstorms possible late next week,
though confidence in detailed timing remains low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the
region. Temperatures were in the mid-upper 60s across much of the
region. Other than some high thin clouds moving through, no
significant weather is expected through sunrise.
For today, strong ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue while
an active weather pattern continues off to our west. We'll see
another breezy day today as the pressure gradient tightens up and
we'll have a faster 850 hPa flow over the western half of the
region. With afternoon mixing, we'll see winds in the 10-15 mph
range with gusts of 20-25 mph at times. This will also probably
lead to a dry air mixdown event where afternoon dewpoints decrease
significantly. Afternoon highs will be in the 79-84 degree range.
For tonight, ridge axis will shift to the east as a slow moving cold
front pushes toward the region from the west. A few showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible over our far NW counties
toward dawn Monday. Lows tonight will be in the 60-65 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A mature mid-latitude cyclone will wrap northeastward over the Upper
Midwest on Monday, dragging a weakening cold front into the Lower
Ohio Valley Monday evening and Monday night. Ahead of this boundary,
Monday morning will likely start off dry for most. Weakening
convection may attempt to push into the far western CWA around
daybreak, but will likely not approach the I-65 corridor before
dissipating. An upper level shortwave trough and the effective sfc
boundary continue to progress eastward, and renewed convective
development appears likely during the mid to late afternoon hours in
portions of central KY and southern IN. We will see increased
synoptic scale ascent along the frontal boundary, also beneath the
right entrance region of a SW to NE oriented jet streak over the
Great Lakes. Some modest destabilization should allow convection to
strengthen Monday afternoon and evening, though overall
destabilization will be limited by weak lapse rates aloft and
possibly cloud cover. Deep-layer shear will also be marginal at
around 30 kts. At the very least, a few stronger storms capable of
gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible.
The 28.00Z CSU machine learning severe weather forecasts for Mon/Mon
night feature low (5-10% or less) probabilities for wind in
relatively small portions of KY.
With the potential for a bit more early day sunshine, temperatures
will top out in the low/mid 80s east of I-65 Monday afternoon. Highs
of 75-80 F are expected west of I-65.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak Monday evening and
overnight as convection evolves eastward across the region. Rain
likely lingers into Tuesday morning, especially for the eastern half
of the CWA. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to around an inch will
be possible through Tuesday, though some communities could see a bit
more than an inch (depending on convective evolution). Tuesday
afternoon and evening will feature a drying trend with temperatures
topping out in the low/mid 70s in the Bluegrass and mid/upper 70s
along and west of I-65.
Tuesday night into Thursday will feature amplifying ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley. Will lean toward a warmer and relatively dry
solution in the forecast for this time frame, though forecast
confidence drops off Thursday and beyond. Large model spread and run-
to-run consistency issues remain for late next week and next
weekend. Confidence is increasing in warm and dry conditions for
midweek with highs in the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening, though rain
chances have been lowered for Thursday. An overall slower trend for
a storm system over the Plains could help keep active weather
confined to the Plains and Midwest through the daytime period of
Thursday, but confidence in detailed timing remains low.
A strengthening storm system over the central CONUS will eventually
bring a period of showers and stormy weather to the Ohio Valley, and
this is most likely around the Friday-Friday night time frame at
this time. Rain chances do linger into the weekend, but the details
will need time to come into focus.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. For
today, look for VFR conditions with breezy southwest winds. Winds
will generally be 9-13kts with occasional gusts of 19-23kts. Winds
will diminish toward sunset and then will likely back to the
south/south-southeast for the overnight period. High clouds will
stream into the region from the west tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
Office: PAH
FXUS63 KPAH 281049
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight
bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
There is a conditional risk for a few strong to severe storms
this evening, mainly in SEMO. Damaging winds and a isolated
tornado would be the main concern, but confidence is not the
greatest. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated across
the rest of the region.
- Heavy rainfall is possible tonight with locally 1 to 2 inches
of rainfall mainly in SEMO. Isolated flash flooding is
possible.
- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are expected today with strong
southerly flow.
- Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably warm with high
temperatures back in the 80s. More shower and thunderstorm
chances are likely by Thursday and Friday as another cold
front approaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A mid level shortwave will eject across the Plains today as a low
pressure system lifts north across Iowa through this evening. A
trailing cold front will slowly traverse towards the FA tonight
through Monday with numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake
of the first round of convection this evening, most of the day will
be dry as model soundings show a cap between 850-800 mb. Leaned
closer to the NBM 50th percentile for maxTs today as the NBM
probabilities of exceeding 83-85 degrees are quite high across most
of the FA with increasing breaks of sun. Given inverted-v model
soundings and strong southerly flow, would expect temps to
overachieve a bit today. Conditions will also be breezy with wind
gusts between 25-35 mph due to the pressure gradient.
As the right entrance region of a 50+ kt jet max at 500 mb
approaches Sunday evening combined with PVA, forcing for ascent will
lead to increasing 300 mb divergence as the CAMs show a QLCS
approaching from the west. Initially, there will be a conditional
risk for a few strong to severe storms in SEMO where a narrow axis
of higher dewpoints in the mid 60s and MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg is
progged. However, there is uncertainty if an ongoing MCS over south
central Missouri will be sfc based by the time they reach our FA.
The 0z HRRR model soundings show a cap just above the sfc that would
mean elevated storms and inhibit the severe risk. To a lesser
extent, the RAP is also indicating this possibility while the 3km
NAM supports sfc based storms. Should severe storms reach our FA,
the main concern would be damaging wind gusts with bowing segments
and an isolated tornado between 00z to 05z. By the time storms reach
the Mississippi, instability wanes quite a bit with any strong to
severe storms quickly diminishing for the remainder of the FA.
Overall, widespread severe storms is not anticipated, as we are
confident they will be confined to mainly a few counties in SEMO
should they occur. Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will
also will be a concern in the aformentioned area as 1-2 inches of
QPF is progged by the HREF PMM. Areas near Poplar Bluff in
particular will be extra sensitive where the KPAH WSR-88D shows
heavy rainfall fell yesterday.
As a cold front slowly moves through on Monday, additional showers
and thunderstorms will be possible. The shear by this point will be
lacking, but there will be enough instability to support general
thunder. Monday afternoon into Monday evening in particular is when
there might be a slight enhancement to pcpn as a 500 mb impulse
ejects out of the southern Plains and provides better lift. MaxTs
will be much cooler in the low to mid 70s.
Zonal flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will allow for much drier
conditions with only slight chance NBM PoPs progged. The flow then
turns more amplified and unsettled Thursday into Friday as a 500 mb
trough digs across the central CONUS. This will mean more
unseasonably warm maxTs in the 80s along with more chances for
showers and thunderstorms as another cold front eventually moves
through. High pressure eventually looks to build in next weekend
allowing for drier conditions and cooler maxTs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The TAFs are VFR to start the morning with high level clouds
across the region. Scattered cu around 5-9 kft AGL will be
possible during the day as skies turn partly sunny. South winds
between 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts are expected.
As a cold front begins to approach from the west this evening,
the general trend will be for convection to weaken as a line of
showers and storms impacts the terminals mainly after 06z. After
an initial round of pcpn, MVFR cigs will be the other concern
towards the end of the TAF period across the western terminals.
Winds will remain breezy out of the south around 10-12 kts with
intermittent gusts near 20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
